Move The Line - 2024 NFL Draft Recap: Winners, Losers, and Surprise Picks! (+ 2024 Bets!)

Episode Date: May 9, 2024

Who scored big, and who's left picking up the pieces? Join us for a comprehensive recap of the winners and losers of the 2024 NFL Draft! From steal-of-the-draft picks to head-scratching decisions, we'll break down the highs and lows of this year's selections. Plus, get ahead of the game with our early NFL bets for the 2024 season, as we analyze the latest odds and predictions for gridiron glory. Don't miss out on the post-draft analysis and future projections – subscribe now and stay ahead of the NFL action! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  #NFL #nflbetting #BettingGuide #BestBets #SportsBetting #Football

hello and welcome to move the line presented by four for four bets i'm ryan newton we are back post draft cycling into all things nfl off season all things nfl futures preseason schedule draft recap futures all the stuff that is coming, excited to turn the page here and move forward and start talking about, uh, what to expect here on the field for the 2024 season. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen, what's going on, bud? Yeah, it was, uh, an interesting draft. I think that we didn't have our best performance out there in terms of the final results. Um, the over-unders went well, Vegas refund absolutely crushed.

So that was great to see in our Discord. I think 13-2 maybe, something like that. And it's funny because I think one of the ones he lost was the Barton under, and I feel like we all felt really strong about that as well. But just absolutely crushed otherwise. Over-unders seem like they're the weakest market. I think we were 2-1 on those for ourselves and just missed on a couple other things here and there.

But overall, excited to get into the off season we'll talk about some futures bets probably go division by division eventually and uh go from there definitely some lessons learned in the draft i mean i think there's something to be said for maybe being two in the weeds because if you think about like how that actually played out and i wanted to look and i'm just remembering now but thinking about like the first mock put out um that i put out i think probably moxie you put out maybe you know early in the process those were like kind of what happened right like when we started to get a little too fancy all these different trades all these different scenarios here and this what to believe this this you know previously and again we're not naming sources no offense to the sources previously

really strong sources did not land necessarily this year and all of a sudden you start to get just in it and like this becomes this all of a sudden you start to put all these trades in and there's just just a domino effect in draft betting because things are correlated there's you know in mock drafts all those things are correlated so probably two in the weeds man i don't know like i don't have it in me to like take a step back next year i just know i won't when it comes to like march and april like it's just you know how can we unplug but last year was it for last month i guess or last week whatever it is now it just feels like man changes i would i would do some things differently connor i would definitely do some

things differently yeah i mean we'll keep firing i mean i'm not scared i'm not not firing betting wise yeah for sure yeah i mean just is what it is um i will say i think you brought up a good point with the like domino effect and largely i mean I mean, it revolves around J.J. McCarthy, right? Because J.J. McCarthy going three, which I think both of us had in our mocks, or even four or five, I think that I was a bit more convinced that someone would trade up for him in that sense.

And it almost reminded me, I got this weird feeling in my gut like an hour before the draft, like, what if this is like the Tua Tunga-Vailoa draft and Justin Herbert draft, where I believe they had picks like four and five or five and six, something like that. And I was like, why would one of them not jump to three or four to make sure that they get the guy that they want? You know, like, you know, at least, uh, the dolphins who I think picked after

the chargers and the Justin Herbert draft. And it just didn't happen. They just sat there and they took their guy and you know, know they these guys just have stones of steel sometimes and so it makes sense and then all the cardinal stuff you know jeraki you know talking about neighbors over marvin harrison jr you know just pissed away some money there even if i didn't put much we weren't buying it all draft cycle and then you know heard a little bit more about it later so i don't know i i think that tightening up the sources tightening up the info as well makes a ton of sense. And then the back half of the first round was just, I mean,

absolutely wild with Ricky Pearsall and the Panther straight up for Leggett, which we'll talk about more throughout the show. But, yeah, just like some wild picks, I think, the back half of the first round. For sure. And, you know, maybe overfitting some stuff too. And I think you made a good point. The Cardinals was one for sure. It was like, well, why would they stay at four?

They can move out. They're just sitting on. I was convinced that the cardinals don't pick it for um it made a ton of sense for them to pick four and just be like you know what we got just a shit ton of capital we need alphas we talked about that too like this team needs some blue chip prospects on the team they executed that plan i made a ton of sense to be able to back down but they didn't have to because they had a ton of picks anyway. So it's not like they needed more, more picks. Like at a certain point, you just got to stay home and draft guys.

Maybe overfitting too. It was like, well, Joe Alt left tackle. It doesn't make a ton of sense for the Chargers. They have a left tackle. They need right tackle help. They can trade down and get a right tackle. And, you know, just like, all right, we're

just gonna stay home and take alts too so like right away it's like no mccarthy uh no trade at four no trade at five the chalk guys that made sense to go there weren't thinking too hard i guess did go there and i was already in shambles well i alive i want to talk about that then real quick the alt because the alt latham, kind of like domino was really interesting because the chargers at five picked a guy in Joe alt that predominantly plays left tackle. They already have a Sean Slater. So one of them has over to right tackle. Uh,

and then the, then the Titans at seven pick JC Latham, right tackle when all off season, they've been saying the guys that there's like two or three guys. They're like, Oh, we do him as like a right tackle. I don't remember their names off the top of my head,

but like they had kind of some help there but they had like nothing left that like straight up nothing and jc lathe or and and uh latham like it's predominantly a right tackle at alabama who probably a left tackle but like it's not it wasn't just like a sure thing and so i thought it was very interesting how like positionally i mean i guess they'll figure it out but like it just didn't really seem to go how we thought there at all because i i, I don't know. I just, I guess the Latham pick, even though we knew he was going to go high, just didn't think he was going to go that high given like the fit with the Titans didn't make a ton

of sense in my mind. Yeah. I mean, it was the same thing with the alt thing. There's just, there was more of that and it's just like, well, you know, are we overthinking it? Yeah. There's just a few of those that were, that were frustrating for sure. So yeah, I mean, look, there was some part of it was like i went felt so good about mccarthy being top five and we not only

had him as a top five pick but i just banged a bunch of exactus that like basically wheeled anything that involved that and when they're so over my skis on that and it's like well no no that's that's uh that is not happening uh again so yeah scott smith we miss you uh scott in the chat uh we miss you from draft season scott's his absolute stud and of course you know goes out and has another strong finish in the uh the mock streets there for scott so not surprising uh absolute stud and what he does there by the way too i don't know if you saw this so it was like mock draft database compiles all the best mock drafts uh and the worst ones and so um my i was 59th out of 59 in the mock draft database uh this year and so only up from here that's you know a good sign uh it was great though because the second worst was was Stephen Shea from Barstool. And they put it on the screen, like on one of their Barstool shows, like the Yak or whatever.

And so he was obviously getting roasted, but they're like, who's the guy who gave him last? Like, what a moron. Like, how much worse can you do? And so that's me. And so it's, my mentions are still buzzing, you know, from people adding Shea about that. And thankfully, I mean, I just came out and embraced it. I don't know. Bad year happens in only a premier.

Yeah. It was trades too, right? Just too many trades and nonsense. Yeah. Lessons learned. Let's talk about it. Who do we, you know, some, you know, kind of today we'll touch on, you know, drafts that we think went well.

I mean, again, this is, this is always an interesting process, right? And you at this point have probably read draft reviews and draft grades. We're not here to grade drafts. And I think some people are like, well, you know, you can't really grade a draft until a couple of years in and we see who these guys are and such. And I understand that. But at the same time, I also think you can think about process in terms of drafting. You can think about value on consensus big boards. And again, some teams, consensus big boards

aren't necessarily the sharpest thing out there. But if you reach on a guy that you probably could take with your next pick or is like 30 to 50 picks off of most consensus big boards, you probably reached in terms of perceived value for that player. So I think it is a worthwhile process. And more importantly for us in terms of, now that we're not talking about betting on the draft, how does this play out in the current future markets?

Win totals are posted. Divisional odds are posted. Obviously, you can bet on conference, Super Bowl, all that stuff. We're getting some player stuff out there. Obviously we'll do devote a little bit more time specifically to player futures, whether that's the awards market, all that stuff. We'll get into that all as the season or the off season goes along. But let's touch briefly on who do we think drafted well and who maybe missed the mark a little bit. So I'll let you go anywhere you want to start with a bad team, start with a good team. We'll kick it around back and forth and just talk about how we thought some of these teams did during the draft. I'm trying to be a little bit. So I'll let you go anywhere you want. Start with a bad team, start with a good team. We'll kick it around back and forth and just talk about how we thought some of these

teams did during the draft. I'm trying to be a little bit more optimistic. So we'll start with some good teams. I'll start with the Chicago Bears, you know, hometown team here, drafted Caleb Williams, drafted Roma Dunza. I thought that that's just like a slam dunk duo. I think both you and I were convinced that Dunza would not be there. It took, again, it took JJ McCarthy essentially not going there, Michael Panix going eight, and the Titans not trading out at seven and taking JC Latham. I mean, that, in my mind, pretty crazy run of scenarios there for that to happen, and they land Odunza.

I mean, it's one of those things where the Bears' defense played really well down the stretch last season, and then now they have an offense that I think should be more than capable. of those things where the bears defense played really well down the stretch last season. Um, and then now they have an offense that I think should be more than capable. Like I already in my mind of projecting them to be a top 10 offense for this season, which sounds crazy, but I'm just, I'm just there. Keenan Allen, Roma Dunza, DJ Moore, reasonably good offensive line, Deandre Swift, Khalil Herbert can, you know, banging some touchdowns if he needs, like they just have

everything that I think makes a good team at this point so I think you could the issue is like the odds I think I've already caught up with a lot of that um like they're about even money to make playoffs their win total is like eight and a half juice or nine even um depending on where you look I think that's about right I think that my favorite way to play it would be like Bears to just win the division outright for a little bit more. So, I mean, again, it's tough, tough competition, but I do like them to make the playoffs as well because I think that they're just this really strong NFC team at this point.

Three receivers all complement each other very well, which is, I think, an important piece too, right? It's not like there's obviously overlapping skill sets, but I think that they all can complement each other very well. And now when you move on from whatever you get from Keenan Allen here, moving forward, you're still going to have a young duo. DJ Moore is still young. Came in young and, you know, to build around that.

I was the whole time kind of holding on, like offensive line. I don't know that that was a – I was glad that they didn't, you know, address that early in the draft. They did in like the third round and made a splash there with the kid out of Yale. I don't want to butcher his name, but he got hurt like late in the season. A lot of people thought he was like,

you know, a late second type of prospect too. So really strong, you know, coming out of Yale, not great competition, but you know, I think upsideale not great competition but uh you know i think upside uh guy that could play maybe tackle or guard position for them so

then they traded back in in the fifth round and added austin booker out of kansas who was i thought an interesting edge prospect that should probably go in the third round day two uh he fell all the way to 144 i think ah i don't have it up here but he was like top 70 i think in pff's big board uh you know not just like a really good athletic prospect and you know edge was an area of need for them and just another interesting selection for them so yeah as you mentioned division strong lions can i can like roll into the lions as a team that had a great draft lions are good had a great draft and are very interesting packers really good draft youngest team in the league supplemented and did really well in the draft again uh so the division continues to trend up

i like what minnesota did um i think that they've had a nice off season i think they've been very interesting if you know mccarthy or Darnold can hit the ground running. They're probably the fourth team in the division, but that's a pretty strong fourth team in the division that can go toe-to-toe and really beat any of those other teams. Now, the Bears' edge is the schedule. When you look at the strength of schedule, it is soft. I love to look at the unique three. This is something we touched on the last handful of years. All these teams, for the most part, now home and away is soft. I love to look at the unique three. So something we touched on the last handful of years, all these teams for the most part now home and away is different. Obviously you play everyone

in your own division, you know, home and away. The NFC North plays the NFC West and the AFC South. So pretty middling in terms of division strength, top to bottom there. The Bears, though, they're a unique three. They play home to New England, home to Carolina, and at the Commanders. It is way, way softer than anything else. The Lions is at the Palace, home to Buffalo and Tampa. That's not like a world beater per se and all these teams really kind of have relatively soft um you know unique threes but the bears new england

carolina and the commanders that's that's not super challenging right so um whatever you think of those teams they're they're you know probably on the outside of the playoff picture so yeah i mean it's hard not to be optimistic as you said probably baked in at this point but i mean look as we touched on we're local we're not bears fans neither of us but we're definitely tied in and what's been interesting to me talking with bears fan friends of late is they are like they don't believe it like they they not that they don't believe it but they're like they're just so pessimistic they are ready to like just for like kayla williams to not be the guy and like something's gonna happen here there's no way that this is gonna happen because in all the years

that they've ever been good it's never been the offense it's always defense they've never had a good quarterback i mean kayla williams is the best prospect that they've ever had a quarterback not close like i mean it's literally not close. I mean, maybe he doesn't wind up being the best Bears quarterback ever, but it's a really low bar. I mean, these, like Justin Fields was the most exciting quarterback they'd ever had prior. And Justin Fields is now might be playing special teams for the Steelers. I mean, this is like hilarious, by the way, the way it worked out.

But yeah, talking to Bears fans, they're all like, oh, well, we'll see. You know, I mean, they should be jumping for joy. This is like a miracle that this happened. This is incredible. I'm fired up. I can't wait to watch Bears games. And they're like, oh, we'll see. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.

It's wild, I guess. I mean, they've never had a 4,000-yard passer. They've never had anyone throw for 30 touchdowns. And in this day and age, those they're not nothing but they're not astronomical thresholds caleb could do that this year and again i know that that's like you know on the higher end i guess of his range of outcomes but like with this group if everyone stays healthy which is you know caveat that you can make for handicapping any team. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, it's wild. It's wild that the bears fan, they're so pessimistic.

It's yeah. It's, it'll be interesting to see, but yeah, hard to not pick them as one of the teams that had an absolute home run of a draft, even though they, you know, did not have, you know, a full allotment of picks from, from other stuff. So good draft for them. I also really liked what Cincinnati did. I think Cincinnati had a really nice draft.

Marius Mims in the first, you know, obviously protecting Joe Burrow makes a ton of sense. I was back and forth because I thought, you know, they can make a case for them to go defensive line in the first round. But they did that in the second round with Chris Jenkins out of Michigan. How I like is not like necessarily a home run prospect, but just really solid interior, you know, pound for pound guy that could play three downs for that team,

I think is going to be pretty nice for them. I think the upside with Jermaine Burton as a speed guy, you know, with whatever's going on with T. Higgins, obviously having to replace, you know, Tyler Boyd. So adding a little bit more elements to bolster that passing offense and they double tap tight end tight ends been a problem for them eric all coming out of you know tight end university of iowa all is like a not a lot of snaps but like yards per route run off the charts uh kind of a freak athlete i think he's really interesting, like some of the other

guys that they've added, like Lates. So I think there's a lot of upside to Cincinnati. And they're another team, when you look at schedule-wise in the division, significantly easier to schedule than the rest of their divisional foes. Ravens, 29th in strength of schedule. And this is using projected win totals. Ravens, 29th Browns 30th, Steelers 32nd. So three of the four toughest schedules in the league. The Bengals are at six. They're a unique three. Again, New England is involved.

Again, Carolina is involved. And then they're also at Tennessee. So that is a significantly easier schedule than some of their, like the Ravens, Buffalo, Houston, at Tampa Bay. That's way harder. easier schedule than some of their like the Ravens Buffalo Houston at Tampa Bay like that's that's way harder so I think the Ravens or the Bengals are going to be better again if they can keep Joe Burrow upright I think they did well so any thoughts there no they I mean they address their needs especially double tapping defensive tackle double tapping tight end adding offensive offensive

tackle with Mims who's I guess like has a lot upside. So it makes sense. I'm excited to see them. The burden pick makes sense, but I want to see more Andre Josivas. I think he's kind of good. I think he's kind of a fun player. So I'm interested to see how their three wide receiver sets break down because they play a ton of 11s. So I'm interested to see what that looks like. I think T's going to be here, going to be a bangle for least a year, right? I would assume probably, I mean, unless something happens mid season, but yeah,

I don't know. I'm just excited to see more of that, but I know burden does have a lot of upside. So we'll see that with them. I think they're just a tough team to predict because I think we're looking at, there's a total out there for the Bengles 11 wins even on caesars that kind of seems high i like the bangles but 11 wins even is a lot i hate that caesars does that too i hate that they give us flat win totals yeah because like sure could they win 10 games 11 games yeah but like 12 games we're talking about like a stellar season in an awesome division um but like you mentioned there are some good scheduling stuff um for them so it's probably a stay away for me but 11 flat to me just seemed pretty high for a team that i don't know it's i mean there's just a lot of competition there

for sure yeah i mean i think all obviously all the three other teams in the division are strong they play the afc west which means a trip I believe it's a road game to Kansas City. Then also at Dallas, I believe, in there because they play the NFC East as well. So, again, you get the Commanders, you get the Giants. There are wins on the schedule. But, yeah, I mean, 11 is tough because you've got to get to 12. And, yeah, I like the Bengals, but that would probably be a tough sell. All right, what else do you like here?

What other teams? Or you like it or you don't like it? Whoever you want to talk about. Yeah, we'll go to some, some losers here. I'm going to go with the Broncos being a loser here. Bo Nix at 12th overall,

I think is just downright horrendous. I mean, I get it if you're taking your quarterback in the future, but I mean, came out later. No, no one else had a round one grade on Bo Nix other than the Broncos. I mean,

I don't disagree with that necessarily. If you watch any of his games at Oregon, like it was all just like scheme stuff. I mean, I remember vividly watching some of the games and being like, this is just horrible, like a horrible watch. Because it's not like real football. They're just throwing screens. They're, you know, run and shoot. It's just like it was very strange. And I think that Bo Nix came in like to college is like a pretty heralded

prospect. And like, he has some tools, but not really, honestly, I just thought he was like, it's going to be a very strong limit test of Sean Payton. Like how much does this scheme matter? And then the Broncos, I mean, still have some questions at safety linebacker pass rush secondary outside of Pat Sertan.

Like, I mean, theari Mathis could still be in the fold I mean he was 126 out of 127 per PFF last year in corner grade I mean he was downright trash then they paired O'Nicks with Troy Franklin who I think was a good pick you know relative to like what we expected but now their receiving core is just like the biggest bunch of jags ever I mean it's just like Corlin Sutton. I mean, he's fine. Like, you know, possession receiver, I guess, at this point. Like Marvin Mims could be something, but like could barely crack the field last year.

And then now you have Troy Franklin, who again, like, he was like a third, fourth round pick. Like he's not going to be coming and be like an alpha on day one. So I don't know. It seems like in my mind, Sean Payton has overplayed his hand here of like, I'm Sean Paytonton i can make anything work as long as i have the right guys that fit my system and this is gonna be a great test of that so we'll we'll see here because i mean they won eight games last year which is crazy to look back on um i yeah i tweeted this out today they they

beat the uh like the they beat the packers they beat the chiefs they beat the bills they beat like all these good teams and lost some terrible ones because they had a string of turnover luck like 10 turnovers in three games against the Vikings Bills and Browns midseason so insane um yeah I remember talking about at the time it was like the most because it was something that uh I think it might have been Solak I think someone at the ringer wrote about the most EPA gained from turnovers and like a five game stretch ever, but like not by a little bit, but like almost double anything anyone's ever done from a, like EPA gained from turnover.

So yeah, super unsustainable was the reason we were looking week to week to kind of fade them after that happens, you know, after they got over like the Miami thing where it was like, all right, some of their statistics are just completely out of whack. because they just got absolutely dominated and gave up 70 and all that stuff that happened there. But I really respect the work that Mike Clay does over at ESPN.

He has this as the second worst roster in the league. They are 29th offensively, 29th defensively, and then overall 31st from a unit grade standpoint. It's just not a really good football team, and I don't think either of us think Bo Nix is a talent elevator at this point. So kind of middling everywhere else. The offensive line's okay, and that's really the unit that I think is kind of worth its weight. So it's going to be a tough season in a division that I think is interesting.

And obviously you have the defending Super Bowl chance in there as well. So, yeah, Bo Nix, good luck, my friend. It's going to be – Six flat at Caesars right now. It's plus money on funder five and a half at some shop. Six flat at Caesars. I mean, again, I think more often than not, they're probably in the four, 5, 6, 7 range.

But getting to 7, to me, seems like a top-end kind of outcome here. Or the Raiders are just absolute dog shit. Or maybe the Chargers don't pan out, too. But I kind of think the Chargers are going to be good. And the Raiders, I just have no idea. Yeah. Broncos, too. Unique three.

Indy, again, going gonna be a different unit obviously with anthony richardson the uh future offensive player of the year uh yep uh at the jets which obviously you know we're banking on rogers but uh that you know should be better uh and then you know that's a west to east trip and then at seattle which you know seattle they could probably a little bit better than Denver Seattle not always an easy place to play so those are those aren't three layups for a team with a you know a bottom schedule per se so they're they're getting kind of a rough run of it there so I'm kind of I'm with you on the Broncos being kind of down uh let's see I'll pick a down one who else was I down on um I I didn't. I'll pick a down one. Who else was I down on? I didn't like what Miami did.

Mostly, I didn't like the chop Robinson pick in the first round. And I just think they have a ton of needs. And I think one of those needs is along the defensive line. But I think maybe even like interior defensive line, you're going to get some of these. You jayden phillips is gonna come back um you know chop was like an absolute stud in shorts and a t-shirt um but just the production was never really there i think he's an exciting prospect but like when you need a guy like this to probably come in like you're making that pick hoping he hits the ground running like i don't know uh you got bradley chubb you got jalen phillips they're coming back yes you get like an upside situational pass rusher but like this offensive

line is terrible and this offense and everything that they do from a speed and to accuracy standpoint is predicated on protecting tua and the offensive line is is rough now they added Patrick Paul in the second round and I think he could be okay maybe they just had a higher grade on him and they knew that they could get him in the second rounds and maybe they're right but like I just think that there are other ways for them to address it then and chop some of the other stuff is just I think a lot of high upside athletes that i don't think are like jalen right in the fourth you didn't have a third round pick and you take another speed running back is that really like really what this team needs i don't know like it's fun

and like yeah you got another dude to line up like you could pass the baton to you for your uh you know 200 meter relay but like to win football games i don't know that without a third round pick that you needed a fourth round running back so yeah miami a little bit down on that just i worry about them keeping to upright yeah no that's totally fair i think that should have been the number one priority they probably should have done like three offensive linemen in the middle rounds here and said they picked what pittsburgh did right right yeah yeah and i like pittsburgh's draft i mean pittsburgh is gonna go full boomer ball um you know like this year and they leaned into it address their offensive line more.

You know, we don't know how they're going to do. But anyways, yeah, Miami, like the Jalen Wright pick, like you have Devin A. Chan. You have Raheem Mostert, who's super fast, a little bit more, I guess, in between the tackles. I mean, Jeff Wilson probably is somewhere, you know, around. I mean, Jalen Wright, like now it just doesn't really make sense. Like, and then you have all these other guys who are fast on the team. Like it, it just doesn't add up to me. Like why you would waste a fourth round pick on him. Like, I don't know, just like best cases, Devon, a Chan, and you have two of them, I guess. I don't know. Like to me, like they need a more like functional offense of like consistency, you know,

not like the big play all the time or like, you know, having six guys moving around the line of scrimmage. Like they need like something that they can rely on when that shit doesn't work. And when they didn't work, they just were stuck. Like they just had nothing else left. And so, yeah, I kind of agree with you on Miami here. Um, I do want to talk about Scott Smith here. I mentioned in the comments, it feels like Dallas has backfilled some positions and missed some missed filling some holes and some stuff some scheme changes I like

under 10 and a half wins yeah I mean Dallas's draft was interesting because they traded back when they got uh Guyton and then like really just didn't do much else after Marshawn Neyland edge Cooper Beebe uh you know guard in the third round and And then Marist, Liafu, a linebacker. I mean, I would assume that's so that they can have another linebacker after Leighton Van Der Esch retired. I don't know. I mean, I think it's fine. I guess I don't really feel too strong about it either way.

And I think that's probably to Scott's point. Like they just, they have guys who are like fringe starters, but they didn't really make any high impact plays. And like now also, now we're like basically in full hindsight of the offseason jerry jones's we're going all in comments are even funnier because they literally did the opposite of go all in considering they did made no splash in free agency and then traded back in the first round to get a guy who's like i mean a guy could be fine but it's not like he was like some heralded office of line prospect or anything. Right. Yeah. No, I'm with you on that one too.

And like, I didn't like that. I doubt on the list of teams that I was like, eh, a couple of teams that were like a Denver two or like, eh, not great teams. I mean, they were, the linebacker pick was weird. Um, other linebackers, I think significantly better that went around, like right around him or or significantly later they've added some guys there too i mean they added eric kendrick's they played small last year those guys are back you know they took um you know overshown out of texas last year

who is coming back like this guy is like linebacker five you drafted a special teams guy um and like a linebacker five and in the third round when you have some needs and um yeah very very interesting draft like i really the teams they're gonna need linebackers their defensive front is still pretty poor like up front i mean they obviously edge rusher is fantastic when you have michael parsons to marcus lawrence they added neil and another rotational guy but like the problem was up front last year remember like their splits with jonathan hankins on and off the field were pretty drastic and they've added nothing to that room uh is a small undersized front that is going to be like we're going to look at some running back

props i think week in and week out against dallas uh because their teams are going to be able to i think have some success up front against them. So, yeah, Scott makes a good call. Ten and a half is a lot. You're putting a lot of pressure on Dak in a year where, you know, he probably knows he's playing for an extension. It's just kind of a weird dynamic at Dallas this year. Yeah, no, I totally agree there with that one.

And then E. Colt mentioned, is there a better bet than Tony Pollard under 8.5 rushing yards? Yeah, there is. It's Xavier Leggett under 700 and a half receiving yards. There you go. Seamlessly brought up in the show. Yeah, I know. I mean, it had to be.

Well, I will start with Pollard. Pollard, I think this is fine. I mean, he was kind of banged up last year. Like now he's going to split time, you know, in Tennessee. I think there's massive questions about the offensive line. There's massive questions about the receiving core. There time, you know, in Tennessee. I think there's massive questions about the offensive line. There's massive questions about the receiving core. There's, you know, massive, I would say like, it's, I guess not the receiving core with Will Levis.

So it's like, how functional is the offensive? The offensive is functional. Like Tony Pollard needs to be efficient because he's not going to be a workhorse. Even if he is a workhorse, he's shown that he's not necessarily efficient as a workhorse. So it's like that balance of like, I think it's about right. I'd probably lean under, but I'm not like running to bet it at this point. I don't know, Newton, any Tony Pollard thoughts? Yeah, I'm with you.

I mean, we just, we probably lean under as well. I think we can, we'll get into that at some point. Your best bet, especially in May, firing it, some of the stuff would be to lean under on season-long props. There's just so many outs on the under. You'd have to feel like you have a massive edge or find a really bad number to take an under or a strong stance on an under.

It doesn't mean you can't cash those. You just have to run hotter than the sun to make sure you're getting basically 17 games out of these guys. And they also hit uh you know above expectation of of what they're looking to do in a lot of instances so yeah i mean just process wise under makes a lot of sense i'm with you on levis i think what's interesting is we all have like that first game against atlanta in our minds we're like we just connected on all these bombs and you're like damn that was it there

was no more of that there There's no more of that. I'm not saying that they can't do more of it, but there was no more of that on the film last year. It was really bad. There was some really bad stuff. Now, again, the supporting cast was poor. The offensive line was poor. And you could make a case that the play calling was as well.

And they've obviously done some stuff to revamp the supporting cast, address the offensive line, or at least try to start doing that to bring in obviously a new coach uh the callahan crew um and it'd be interesting to see what happens there but yeah i'm i'm i'm not super bullish on pollard so i would lean under but i don't feel super strong like you said i'm not rushing to hammer that yet yeah but but the leggett one i thought was really good i mean well we'll we gave that out today first official play at 700 and a half and it's like minus 160 now on draft kings

and 600 on caesars uh if you can get anything down to mgm it's there and then on some price per head shops as well as available um so i was able to get down a solid pop there on leggett i mean we're talking about a guy who's like a non-traditional late breakout because he had some weird stuff happen in like late high school, early college. He transitioned from quarterback to wide receiver early in his career, but he did not clear 160 receiving yards until he was a senior. Matt Harmon's reception perception had him as a 19th percentile separator against man coverage, which I've heard is not good. And, uh, on top of that is his profile of like guys who break out basically average more than 60 yards in this final year and less than, uh, I think it's 35 previously, uh, Scott Barrett pulled this together. Like the comps are just disastrous.

I mean, like, it's like basically gadget guys or like guys who just aren't consistent. And so now you're putting them in a spot where Dave Canales wants to run a bunch. We know that he's talked about it. You know, they, again, they keep adding more and more running backs to the room that they don't necessarily even need. I don't think. And then they have Adam Thielen, they have Deontay Johnson. So what, like they talked about using him like an end rounds and sweeps and stuff too. And like screens, like, I mean, he might catch 50, 60 balls for like 500 yards, but like, that's like best case scenario. You know what I mean? That's like a good best case scenario. So I don't know. I just like,

I thought that to me was very surprising given how, I mean, just Bryce Young was also playing like poverty level last year. He was terrible. It wasn't, it wasn't great. I like some of the stuff from, from Xavier Leggett, but like he is like swimming against stream for all the reasons you said, just in terms of historical comps and late breakout stuff. Again, whatever, he's 24 years old to break out.

Again, we're in kind of a weird thing too. He did have some things that led to that that are a little bit non-traditional with family stuff. But then we also have the COVID. This is kind of the last of the COVID stuff. But still, the dog wasn't doing much beforehand, and obviously the stuff from Matt Harmon is not super encouraging. Though the PFF grade on 10-plus yard throws was pretty elite,

which is interesting considering his separation stuff isn't good. So yeah, they added Deontay Johnson as well, was pretty elite which is interesting considering his separation stuff isn't isn't good so um yeah you know they added deontay johnson as well so like at least they now have somewhat of a nfl caliber wide receiver room uh it's not as bad as new england still so like it's uh it's better like the bar the bar is pretty low but uh yeah i mean 700 is a as a rich line for for him but yeah carolina we like carolina thought had a terrible not terrible draft i liked uh jatavion sanders the fourth round tight end i think is is interesting like jonathan brooks coming off of an acl injury you have all these needs like do you need another running back like you have a couple on the roster

seemed to be okay last year they still i don't know why that decision was made and um the trevin wallace linebacker from kentucky i think michael uh barrett who they took in the seventh round out of michigan is better than than wallace now wallace is a far superior athlete but really i mean has some like splash plays on the tape, but like just run defense grade, not great coverage grade, significantly below average. If you can't cover at linebacker nowadays, like this is not as Dago would love to tell

you, this is not like, you know, 1998 with neck rolls, like you have to cover at linebacker nowadays. So it is not like, you know, 1998, uh, with neck rolls, like you have to cover at linebacker nowadays. So it is not like a benefit. You just don't see a lot of teams running, you know, out or first and second down thumpers. Uh, that's just, and that's not something he does well anyway. So, you know, you can't be a speed athletic freak and not be able to cover. So yeah, it's just a weird weird draft from from a team that like is just in desperate need for her talent on both sides of the ball kind of submissives there so

yeah and they and they traded up to get laguette too and then like to get into the first round to get him i don't know man i just like yeah like they're obviously tested well and all that stuff but like there's just so many other red flags there that don't make sense to me with that and one thing with that is in the new cba with that fifth year option that receiver if he ends up being a dude yeah then it's that ends up being a benefit like the way the cba switched some of those things are more beneficial for other positions used to be quarterback and now that's really not the case of quarterback like you yeah it's actually a problem with quarterback unless especially if you want to keep the guy you got to extend them yeah i also do like jonathan brooks i think he's actually a solid prospect it's actually a problem with quarterback unless, especially if you want to keep the guy, you got to extend them.

Yeah. I also do like Jonathan Brooks. I think he's actually a solid prospect. It's just like in the context of your team, it just makes you just so much, you need so much else. Like what, what are you doing and taking a running back off an ACL? Like,

I think he's a great play in like the prop market, probably mid season after he gets rolling, it'd be a great play. And like, I don't know, maybe some even like long shot futures potentially and, and fantasy and stuff like that. I It'll be a great play. And like, I don't know, maybe some even like long shot futures potentially and fantasy and stuff like that. I think he's a good look.

But like, I mean, God, like it's just bad, bad real life pick. Yeah. Yeah. Probably a great dynasty pick, right? If you're playing fantasy. That's not what the show is. So yeah, that's not that at all.

So who else you got? Anything else you want to highlight? Yeah, I think a couple more teams real quick. What did you think of the Bills draft? Because I wasn't sure about Keon Coleman, but I don't know. I go back and forth on them. Yeah, Bills I thought were kind of middle of the pack. I like Cole Bishop.

I think they're going to need him. I think he's going to be someone that our 444 subscribers are going to get to know because I think he's a kind of a thumper, likes to put his nose in there. And I fall in love with safeties in corners that are willing to be active run game stoppers. So I think Bishop is interesting. Some late stuff I think is okay, but Keon Coleman I think was definitely people were like definitely hot or cold. You either really liked him or thought like he just wasn't a special separator. You know, speed stuff wasn't great. They seemed to like him.

I think social media stuff has made him endearing. I think unintentionally the unintentional comedy scales were pretty high with Keon Coleman, but not a team that I love. He's like a 15-year-old kid in like a 19-year-old or 20-year-old's body. He's like a, like a 15 year old kid and like a 19 year old or 20 year old body. Like literally he's just like a little goofball, which he's funny. I just don't know how much that's going to matter. I mean, like, cause obviously they lost Gabe Davis. They lost, you know, Stefan digs.

Like, I feel like Keon Coleman's just going to be running a lot of wind sprints out there and just kind of like eating up coverage while Kincaid, Shakir, Curtis, Samuel, like all kind of just eat over like in the middle of the field because Josh Allen, I mean, he's done a great job like evolving his game and like being able to play in the middle of the field. And so I don't know, at least that's what kind of where in my mind where I'm at with him, but I mean, who knows, maybe ends up being way better. So I thought that's, that was an interesting one. And then, I mean, we have to talk about the Falcons real quick. We sure do.

Drafting Michael Penix at eight, I think deserves the entire staff should be fired right now. I think immediately, like on the spot, fired. I understand what they're talking about with contingency plan, but you have very short windows to go all in on things. And like you have very small times. And drafting like a difference making pass rusher or Roma Dunza,

you know, and like really emphasizing the edge that you have, like I think will massively, massively help your team way more than drafting a guy like Michael Penix for season ending injuries, frankly, was just a very slightly above average prospect to begin with. Even if you take out the injuries,

I don't know. I just, I think taking Michael Penix at eight, if you didn't have Kirk Cousins is probably not great, but fine. But the fact that you just guaranteed at least two years of Kirk Cousins, and you have an opportunity to win the divisions, very wide open,

like, I don't know. You're just cutting yourself off the legs. I think. And like you're, you're raising the the floor but you're lowering the ceiling a lot given the draft capital yeah at least in my mind thousand percent i i understand what people are trying to do when giving at least a um a more measured take on it uh because obviously it is the most important position but yeah you're also you got

to think of like where you're actually at so you have to step back and like they referenced there was you know the green bay model like okay well that was like pick 26 or something like that 27 for jordan love you're eight and the dynamic that you touched on too briefly which i think really matters is you're in a division that is wide open for the taking. And no one really wanted to win that division last year. And Tampa did, and I think Tampa had a great draft. But they brought back Baker. This division is there for the taking.

And you're locked in on at least two years of cousins cousins i think we agree is is good or underrated or you know above average quarterback that can level up the talent that they have it's a good offensive line they haven't really had anyone that can maximize some of the offensive weapons that they've added they've been untraditional in the first round for the last handful of years who doesn't double down with like if he doesn't play five years, that means it's a good problem to have. It's like, oh, that is so broken. Like, you know, yes, if you don't have an answer quarterback,

you don't have an answer to anything. And then the Pennix age issue, I think is another element to it, obviously. Like coming into, by the time he would play at all, it's going to be 27 years old. That's not great. You're going to have to make a decision on

extending a guy on his second deal into his like 30s and a guy who has had four seasons and with like knee and shoulder injuries who played with three receivers that got drafted in the top 100 picks is both of his tackles within the top like 64 picks so this guy played and performed really well but played with a ton of talent obviously like comparatively like look what drake may and caleb williams had going on like there's a lot of hero ball on the tape because there's not a lot of guys that were drafted especially skill position guys or offensive players from uh usc and north carolina in this year's draft where Penix's entire crew got drafted. So yeah, I mean, just, just a abysmal pick. And again, you're just, you kind of alienate your

like new big money free agent signing before you even play. It just was, it's such a bad process. And you know, Rook, Coro, whoever they, you know, second round, 35th pick, like you need, the only good thing you have is interior defensive alignment basically on your team and you you need edge rushers and you need some other guys and look they like they went d line edge d line with their next three picks but like is another he's like the linebackers just talking about there's a lot of like athletic testing that's interesting there but he never produced at a high level at all like sub 50 percentile pass rush grade on true pass sets according to pff uh you know clumpson went to clumpson tested well so obviously like a good pedigree and a good athlete and a good player

in terms of like what you think he could be but like way better guys on the board for you to trade up they traded up eight spots to take him so like again just really really really bad start i think to the draft for atlanta and um i mean they take jd you know bertrand linebacker under no name like that is a special team or at best like it's just not a great draft for atlanta so yeah they were the low-hanging fruit for sure but they needed to be discussed yeah no i mean just complete complete disaster top to bottom, and I still think they're going to win the division. So, I mean, they're very happy with winning 8-11 games for as long as possible.

Like that's just – I mean, this is what this is telling us. They want to stay in that range. They want to stay competitive. They want to maybe flirt with an NFC championship game if they have a couple. They run hot maybe for a game, and then they're just going to get shit on by the best team in the nfc i mean it's just borderline inevitable uh you know for years to come and that's exactly what this pick's telling us which maybe frankly maybe that's what the owner wants just like hey let's just stay competitive sell tickets let's you know be in the hunt every year and call it a day i mean you're never going to be a superpower but

just is what it is which sucks but i mean whatever it's kind of like i don't know seems kind of weak like weak-minded in my mind it's kind of lame don't love it um anyone else want to highlight i'll buzz through a couple that i like to anything else you got no you can you can roll through a couple uh i think maybe pittsburgh had the best drafts in general and we kind of touched on it you know uh trifano at 20 just a massive fit uh zach frazier who we had discussed a lot on the draft show like some people thought he was sneaking in the first rounds but again just to look at their roster and go yeah you know what we need interior offensive line help and we need help at tackle um who cares i can just address the needs

uh they go ahead and do that with their first two picks. Great starts. They also drafted Mason McCormick in the fourth round, a guard from San Diego state. Everyone talked about him as being like, just mean, which I think is when you're like drafting a guard or, you know, interior offensive lineman,

like I kind of want that. Like I definitely want that to be early. Just a mean dude in the trenches. Roman Wilson receiver from Michigan, likeburgh just hits on these guys and people really like roman wilson if you watch michigan yeah i loved it i mean like they didn't throw a ton but i think that dude caught like their first eight touchdown passes of the season this past year like he was the guy uh i think he's really good peyton wilson linebacker from nc state like payson peyton wilson like no acl in one of his knees he's got a bum shoulder um he might be a one contract guy but peyton wilson is going to be awesome for as long as he plays

i don't know that he's going to be able to play much this year they run a lot of single uh linebacker stuff they gave patrick queen the bag um but payton wilson is exciting prospect from a size and speed standpoint can cover there's a lot to like there again probably doesn't play 10 years in the league but when he's on the field he's impactful pittsburgh does this with linebackers as well even ryan watts out of texas i thought was a guy that could be like a fourth round pick a big corner out of Texas who is pretty skilled, pretty physical. They get them with like, you know, pick 200 or something like that. I think Pittsburgh had an absolute home run of a draft, the lions and Eagles with corners, just another team that did kind of what Pittsburgh did and said, Hey, these are some issues for us.

You know, like Philadelphia has a couple now, but long-term with Darius Slay and James Bradbury, they're on the last year of their deal. They're both in their early 30s. To get Quinion Mitchell and Cooper DeGene and kind of just build up right away is really nice. I don't know how much those guys play this year. They can play a little bit.

Obviously, Cooper DeGene has the ability to play safety as well if they need to. Home run for the Eagles, the Lions too, Terry and Arnold, Manus Rickshaw. They got this kid, Sion Vaki. Have you heard of this guy at all, the kid from Utah? A little bit. What's his deal? So he came in.

He played linebacker and running back at Utah. Everyone thought he was going to be a safety. I'm sorry, safety and running back. Everyone thought he was going to be a safety. I'm sorry, a safety and a running back. Everyone thought he was going to be a safety. They announced him as a running back. They said that he tested for them. He did full-on tests for them for all the positions. Had like 40-something carries at running back, and that's it.

They drafted him as a running back, but he had like 20 missed tackles forced. Just kind of like they drafted a football player. Feels like a Detroit Lion. I thought he was going to be like a really good safety, but they announced him as a running back, so he's probably not playing defense. But I'll be special teamer right away. But again, just I thought a nice draft for them too. And Tampa Bay, sneaky good draft.

Barton who fell, but they needed help on the interior offensive line. They grabbed Roswell, the other defensive end, edge rusher from Alabama who's like uber strong. And I think, what is it, Tykee Smith probably plays a lot of safety for them this year. And Jalen McMillan can be a nice little slot from the other Washington receiver. So, yeah, Tampa had a nice draft.

So, yeah, some teams that I think improve their chances and a lot to, and Mitchell for the Colts. I don't think the rest of the Colts draft was fantastic, but lots of Mitchell or where they fell, I thought was pretty nice too. So yeah. Interesting to see what happens there. Yeah.

You hit on the rest of my, my winners there on the Steelers. I mean, they're going to win eight to 10 games. I mean, just like it's inevitable. They're going to beat some teams. They shouldn't be and lose probably one or two games that they shouldn't, but they're just going to eight to 10 games. I mean, just like it's inevitable. They're going to beat some teams. They shouldn't be and lose probably one or two games that they shouldn't,

but they're just going to play a great defense. They're going to run the ball an unbelievable amount. Like, and if, and if Joseph Fields plays, I mean, they might have fewer than 20 past times every single game. I mean,

it's borderline inevitable at this point. So yeah, I don't know. I think they're going to win plenty of games though. It'll be just full boomer ball because now they're set up to to dominate yep no i think it's gonna be interesting uh you want to look at some odds and bring up the odd screen and uh look at some stuff here we've got some questions in the chat we can get to as well yeah we can make so let's see here let's share this we have these two bozos all right uh what do we want to look at here obviously we're gonna

touch the super bowl let's look on some uh we'll touch touch on whatever you wanted to touch on i'll look at the odd screen for it what are some of the futures that you like whether it's a win yeah i would go to win totals i got a couple there that i thought were pretty interesting especially because you can um kind of like i don't know you can just see them all together in one spot. By the way, this tool is free over at four, four.com.

Just go to betting. And then I think it's futures table is what it's called. Yeah. Future odds under odds. But first one Cardinals over six and a half wins, I think is interesting. Even at minus one 40 at Caesars. You know,

I think they did a really good job last year overall, like kind of maximizing what a little talent they had. And now they have way more talent. Marvin Anderson juniors there. Just like, I think they did a really good job last year overall, like kind of maximizing what a little talent they had. And now they have way more talent. Marvin Harrison Jr. is there. Just like I thought that was a fantastic pick overall and then continue to address their needs throughout the draft. So I don't know. I guess they were probably a winner that we probably should have touched on as well.

But I think that they're just in a really good spot to bounce back and win seven to eight games. Any Cardinals takes? Or are you pretty much in line there? Yeah. No, I like the draft. I mean, they get Marvin Harrison coming in and you get healthy Kyler. I think that they're – they played hard for that staff down the stretch.

I thought that was really interesting with a pretty shitty defense. So, yeah, I think that there's definitely a ton of upside there. I think maybe there's a chance for some of the other teams in the division to be going the other way too so yeah i think that cardinals i you know don't love laying that type of juice obviously at this time of year but i'm with you like could be a spot where it's trending to uh to get up there like caesar's gonna have a flat seven for us soon basically yeah oh almost certainly and then uh falcons nine and a half minus 128 caesars i mean, I don't know.

It's a good play. Again, they're going to win a lot of games. I mean, they're still a good team, even if we disagree with the Michael Planix pick. I think they're still very well set up to dominate their division in my mind. By far the easiest schedule in the entire league as well. They play the South. NFC South plays the NFC East and the the afc west um which again you obviously get

the chiefs in there but the rest of those teams are beatable um their unique three are pittsburgh seattle and then on the road minnesota so not um you know not easy teams but not uh super daunting for you know for the falcons there but yeah i mean obviously if we see what we think we're going to see from kirk cousins they can unlock some of the stuff maybe uh kyle pitts becomes a guy obviously drake london can ascend and you know bijan is exciting it's a good offensive line yeah i mean that division is is pretty rough yeah um yeah i think those those two are interesting we talked about already bangles under 11 flat at caesars again that's more of just like a price play. I thought it was kind of notable.

Broncos under six flat at Caesars is both solid, I think. And then Vikings win total moved up. It was six and a half pre-draft now seven and a half at FanDuel. I think that's a little too high. I mean, I get it there. I think they do have some good parts of their roster.

It's just, it seems to be a lot of faith in JJ McCarthy and Sam Donald in a tough division. So like, yeah yeah i mean eight eight wins for a vikings team with one of those guys at quarterback just seems a little bit rich in my mind um but i don't know i think what's the juice is pretty heavy though and i think at this point right yeah under seven and a half uh minus 142 it's not that bad. Not too bad. Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. Like, I don't hate Minnesota's team,

but just you're banking a lot on either Sam Darnold or a rookie quarterback. I'm just so surprised with what they were able to get out of that defense last year. Brian Flores did, and I think they had a nice offseason. They had a Jonathan Grenard from Houston, and obviously Dallas Turner, Andrew andrew van ginkle from miami uh they kind of revamped edge even though they lost daniel hunter um so yeah kind of an interesting an interesting team there for sure i think there's the range of outcomes is is pretty wide but again i think we kind of agree that they're the worst team in the division and you know that's you know you're gonna have the worst team in the division and you know, that's, you know, you're going to have the worst team in the division still win eight games that can happen, but it's, it's, it's hard. So yeah,

that's not easy. Um, I mean, last one that I had was potentially, that's more of like a lean commanders under six and a half wins. I don't know. Six and a half seemed like a lot with rookie quarterback and Jaden Daniels, who I think there are more questions about than, you know, most people are giving credit for. I mean, I don't know. It's not like he's like stacked with an awesome supporting cast either. I think it's very much fine. Cliff Kingsbury experiment. I feel like we've kind of already seen that not work out.

So maybe he's adapted his game, but I don't think that's a given by any means. And so you're throwing a quarterback that was really like, you know, essentially late breakout in a lot of sense who had like amazing talent, you know, like amazing talent you know like amazing team around him and obviously excelled but still made you know he runs like very aggressively for a guy who's you know built like a string bean I mean it's just like his injury risk is very high and so there's just a lot of factors that I think are not playing in Washington's favor here especially if the New York Giants show any kind of a pulse i mean that would be

i mean i don't know if they will to be honest like they could you know like it's still in range of outcomes yeah yeah i'm with you there too i think there are are i have questions at least i think it could be very exciting and we could be wrong but to assume that he hits the ground running um again he will hit the ground running it's just how how hard does he get hit uh when he hits the ground running um again he will hit the ground running it's just how how hard does he get hit uh when he hits the ground running because he's uh you know there's some some bad decisions in terms of like slide get out of bounds some of that stuff is going to be those are mistakes you only make once in the nfl so yeah that's uh that's an interesting call out too um some other ones that I like. You're going to

just hear this from me relentlessly for all offseason, man. I don't know how to do it and Patrick's talking about it in the chat here. I'm not sure what the best way to do it. He wants to talk about, can you assure me that Anthony Richardson will be healthy for the entire year so I can ability rate his

over 525.5 rushing yards prop. i cannot assure you that he will be healthy for the entirety of the year um but i promise you if he is this colts team's winning at least nine games um and sneaky challenging maybe upside in the division i think houston's really good i think jack civil is going to be in the mix uh but i think there are different ways to play that maybe i wouldn't do you know maybe you want to go for offensive player of the year or something like that i just i can't you cannot convince me that we're yet 17 games of anthony richardson and he is not just insanely special from just an offensive production standpoint now this is a dude that

really struggled to stay on the field last year uh concussions injuries not great but man um ad mitchell is a nice addition there i think the defense has they added a lot of young guys in the last couple years in the draft that i think could be interesting i just i'm bullish on the colts uh you know plus money at 8.5 on FanDuel is an interesting look for me. So any Colts? You'll throw some cold water on Anthony Richardson or anything on the Colts?

No, I mean, you've been a day one Richardson truther even when I was a massive hater. I mean, Shane Steichen, I think, is just very underrated. I think he's a super underrated coach at this point because we didn't get to see the full season of Anthony Richardson. It immediately became apparent to me what he was doing with Anthony Richardson in game one. If a way things were schemed up was just like it was different. It was special.

It was just like things were clicking immediately with like a very middling receiving core. And now Josh Downs kind of came on throughout the year. You add A.D. Mitchell, who at worst can just be a clear out guy, like a good clear out guy. I mean, like I think he's more than that, but like, you know, whatever he ran, ran a great 40 can worse, just like run wind sprints and open up the field for downs and Pittman. I mean, like that's, I think a really great addition as well. And so, yeah, I mean, I think I'm more interested in like Richardson player of the year, 50 to one, 40 to one MVP is possible. Um, just kind of maximizing that range of outcomes. I mean, I don't understand how Justin fields can be 16 to one or 21 last year in Richardson this year is like 40 or one or 50

to one. Like, I don't necessarily know that either of the odds are fantastic, but like it's to me, I think Richardson has already shown that at least he could be a capable passer and a runner. Um, whereas that was not necessarily shown with fields at all. So, um, I don't know, just, I, I'm not sure if a week toto-week basis probably, Patrick. That's what I would say is like week-to-week basis, alts. Just like alts on his rushing. Basically every week we might just play it until he's like dead. You know, like until he's not playing anymore, just bang the alts.

Right. You know, him back, the element of having Jonathan Taylor back and what that does, obviously, what we've seen historically with running backs able to do with strong running i mean alfred morris is like the biggest jag of all jags and put up some like monster numbers in washington when we had peak rg3 just the threat of of the quarterback keeping the ball so as you mentioned like they drafted they have nothing but like big freakish athletes at tight ends um you know

nothing that's really good but then now they've added to the wide receiver room and you know downs was better than i think we thought and then ad mitchell and this is a really strong maybe one of the best defensive lines in the league uh really good linebacking core good edge rushers and now they add you know latu latu like there's just a lot that i like about this roster i mean i i was a big juju brents guy last year's in last year's draft he struggled to stay healthy last year but just size freak athlete at corner who i think could be really good so yeah i'm bullish on on the colts and uh you know i really like the texans they're going to be i think probably good chalk you know you see here nine and a half wins juiced to the over, 10 flat.

It makes sense. I understand why that's there. But I think the Colts are probably my preferred team that can get in the mix there and complicate things. I don't know if that's the best way to do it or if there's other ways to do that stuff with offensive stuff. Slack messages, leave me alone. All right, some other stuff. I Slack messages. Leave me alone. All right.

Some other stuff that over under. So you mentioned here quickly, and I want to get your thoughts. Talk to me about the chargers. I'm. I don't know what to make of the chargers. I don't think the roster is particularly good. The quarterback is um the defense is not uh in like another team that i

think just up front this is what we had in years past like i don't know the front for the chargers is bad uh they need khalil mac and joey both to stay healthy and be special um secondary continues to be a problem of questions at corner and then obviously you know like lad mcconkey i think is a nice prospect but is he your wide receiver one he might he might be um you know they're right they basically took the baltimore's running backs with jk dobbins and gus edwards i don't know what to make of that. I just, I don't, I don't know. It's a tougher division. Eight and a half, nines.

What do you think on the Chargers? Yeah, I kind of, I kind of like the over in some ways, just because, well, a couple of reasons. Like I think that we saw a little bit last year with like the Rams in the sense that like one dominant player and they have two dominant, like extremely dominant players can kind of keep all ships afloat in some senses with some good scheming surrounding it. Obviously, again, it's not, wasn't just, you know, Aaron Donald, but it

was like, you know, scheme, good scheming as well. Like, I think that that combo is very much in play for the chargers who have a couple of really good pieces and a couple of very, very bad pieces. And so like, I think on the defensive side, they're not going to be good, but they're, I don't think they're going to be like horrendous. And then offensively,

again, you have a guy like Justin Herbert. I think you're implementing just a better offensive system. You're upgraded the offensive line a little bit. I like lad McConkie a lot. I think that he was extremely underrated. He tested well, which is like really only my question was like, would he run a four six or a four three nine he ran a four three nine

um i thought that he was underrated as like a separator um really be like an alpha wide receiver one i'm not necessarily sure i think that's like kind of interesting as well so they establish some kind of running game and like some kind of system here on the ground i think it opens up so much more for justin herbert in the past game to be like way more efficient. So like that kind of like balance here, I think matters a lot. And it's something that doesn't really, I don't know, it hasn't really added up for other coaches, but I just with Harbaugh and like everything they're bringing here and like some of the players they brought in to me, it's maybe that's not a final form. Maybe they're winning nine games this year. Uh, and maybe their upside isn't super high,

but like, I just feel like they're winning nine games this year. And maybe their upside isn't super high, but like, I just feel like they're trending very much in the right direction here of playing maybe older school football, but something that I think will work given kind of some of the personnel that they have. Yeah. I mean, I like what you said with the Rams corollary,

basically right with Stafford, just leveling everyone up kind of high tide raises all ships kind of situation. And that could be the case. I mean, I don't have any, no one's arguing that Justin Herbert's not special. And obviously the upgrade at coaching Patrick mentions in the chat,

the chargers have been hampered by terrible coaching for a very long time. Hard to disagree with that, you know, but I just another team and just, they got to find ways to stop other teams from doing the same thing that they're doing uh it could be it could be one of these spots where like chargers games are over um half an hour before anyone else's games are because both teams just were able to run the football well over and over again um and then all of a sudden like why is that game

over it's like well no they just no one stopped the clock for for 25 minutes they just were able to run because i'm i worry about the chargers ready. Do they play the Steelers at all this year? I mean, that would just be like, that's a good question. They do legendary. They do.

As they play a ASC North. Let's go. That's awesome. All right. Well, that's going to be a just straight up terrible game, but it'll be great for some unders, some nice receiving,

juicy receiving unders. I'll be, for some unders some nice receiving juicy receiving unders i'll be uh you know excited to play those already you know we're not yeah i i just uh an interesting i'll mention the charger thing this is maybe you know be a comment on a different show they if they're okay because i'm i think these things probably correlate um junior colson linebacker from michigan who they took in the third round obviously played with with harbaugh junior colson has a really nice path to maybe day one work he is 50 to 1 on draft kings to win defensive rookie of the year um shack leonard is the only linebacker to win defensive rookie in the year in the last decade or so uh but there's a chance where you know Junior Colson steps in and is just compiling

tackles right away because uh the guys in front of him aren't really guys that we need to be super concerned of and the offensive defensive line in front of him is going to allow a lot of running backs to get to the second level. So it allows some chances to compile tackles there. So that's an interesting look. And again, when you look at that market, you know, that's it's edge rushers, edge rushers, edge rushers. That's, I think they've won five out of the last eight. It's definitely been a trend, but it's 50 to one for a guy who could be approaching 800, 900 snaps. That's a pretty nice number. So, uh, this defensive class too too is pretty weak too

like i mean this is like it's not like there was any you know like locked in i mean the first defensive players picked what's 15 lots of yeah lots of yeah and then it was turner 17 then it's like a bunch of corners and maybe some edge like jared burst but like i don't know like it's definitely there's not like an alpha in this class. So if he racks up like a hundred something tackles, I mean, I don't know. I don't hate it at all, man. I'll put a little sprinkle on it. Yeah. It was 65 on MGM when it opened.

And not everyone was out with him yet. And then that's moved down to 40, but still 50 on draft Kings for, for junior Colson. So see other wind totals's let's look at some division stuff another thing that i love this market that mgm puts out but i just wish that other another book did it because like you know the mgm thing right i mean they do these like you know top two finishes uh just just more outs which i think are interesting but let's look at the uh division winners so uh this is interesting in the AFC real quick.

Cause I know we're running up to an hour here. A couple that I wanted to highlight. The jets are still tough, man, because like I'm betting it. Okay. I think, I think it's a good price to two 40.

I know we're taking a risk of a court, like a 40 year old quarterback who's doing shrooms and running for vice president uh is coming off of a uh torn achilles but like i don't think you can make a case that the bills are as good they're just not they had to cut a bunch of important players and yes they have the best player in the division without question miami i've already touched on i didn't like the draft i have questions in that that apparatus could continue to work like it did patriots are not sniffing any of this so it's the jets who have maybe the best roster in the league maybe it's a really good roster it's really good um i mean awesome defense is awesome

uh so i mean it's definitely in the team picture. It's a top five, you know, top five offense, a top five unit in the AFC for sure. Plus 240 to win the division. No, I think it's a good bet. So I like that you're on it too. I feel better about that. We haven't talked about it. No, for sure.

That was like on my short list, I think, of division winners potentially. Yeah. I think you might disagree based off of our earlier talks. I like plus 170 on Cincinnatiincinnati uh to win this division i worry a little bit about baltimore uh what they have going on there and i just think it's a better number on on cincinnati i think this is the way to approach cincinnati because we can you know like you win 11 games win this division fall short of their win total but still be in the

mix i have concerns with with cleveland who is probably interesting at six to one comparatively, but Pittsburgh, I think is going to be better. I don't think they're winning this division, but I continue to remain bullish on Joe Burrow and company. Many thoughts on, on that one. It's fine.

I mean, I don't know. I'm not my favorite. It's not, I like, I just don't know. I guess that would, that's my thing.

I'm just not sure. Cause I think the Browns are probably a little underrated at the current price. I i don't know it's like they have good but i'm not also don't really want to bet them six to one to win the vision because the bangles and ravens are both very very good i just you know i don't know yeah uh this is colts if you wanted to do the colts thing we talked about earlier with richardson plus 340 is a way to go about that not sure that i love i don't know what to do with the colts i just know um i might want to do some richardson specific stuff uh like it's gonna be like minus 400 at some point isn't it for the chiefs to win this division like uh yeah i mean probably has to be right right i mean obviously can't advise laying 225 in in in may on a division winner that's going

to pay out in uh january but i just it's just a it's a pat it's a pat mahomes injury bet basically yes or no does pat mahomes get injured minus 225 and even without him like they'll find a way to be somewhat competitive in this kind of agree yeah defense is really damn good and yeah i felt like last year they were we all kind of agreed that they were early in terms of like some of the other roster spots defensively and stuff and they went out and were still pretty awesome uh i don't have a great thought on the east uh nfc east any thoughts um honestly not really it's kind of the top and the top two the bottom two seems like a coin flip between the top two i agree they are probably well positioned we talked about the falcons minus 120

um i probably just play the win total right yeah most likely i mean i don't know i guess the saints or bucks could be interesting but i don't know i'm not buying the panthers resurgence yet either so no i've not heard that i would not buy it if i heard it so this division is fascinating as we've talked about uh multiple times you touched on bears probably division win is probably one of the better ways to go about this making you based on some of the other stuff being already baked in the market uh 370 on fanduel 375 on mgm if you have the option to do so but yes this is going to be a these these matchups are going to be great this year i can't wait for it yeah i mean i don't know

i think we're going to get like eight games in the season it's going to be like why you know like why are the packers materially better than the bears i mean again i i don't i don't have very many good reasons about why they're much better than the bears right now. And I just think that this is not a reflection of that at this point. And maybe the line, I mean, the lions have a couple of dudes, obviously, they got, you know, plenty of good players and they're probably better on paper overall,

but like, I don't know. I think we're just, we might get there eventually. Yeah. And you won't be able to do this, but let's see what the NFC North top two finish. Yeah, plus 110 on the Bears. So that would be your way to do that. NFC West is going to be the Niners. Again, you're laying massive juice, but I feel like that's another one that's, you know, I feel less confident than the Mahomes bet basically.

But I don't know. I'd be more interested in anything. I'd be interested in the Cardinals at 13 to one to win. I don't think they're going to win the division, but if some of them were to go sideways on the Niners, like the Cardinals could be in the mix and I don't think they're priced appropriately for that. So that would be all I got.

Yeah. I don't mind that. I mean, pretty well, the thing is that the Niners are just built so anti-fragile, like they've shown that they can throw any Joe Schmo in there and be at least decent. well the thing is that the niners are just built so anti-fragile like even ready to go down like they've shown that they can throw any joe schmoe in there and be at least decent yeah i agree all right we will obviously spend the rest of the offseason doing more and more

of this as we go along so we uh appreciate you hanging out with us today don't forget to subscribe to the channel before you take off head head over to four for four.com slash plans, scoop up the betting sub. That way you get all of the premium content that we do this season gets you access to everything that we do. So if you're not just betting, uh, you betting sub gets you access to, uh, best ball content, DFS season long, all the stuff that we do on the sites, uh, get you in the discord and get access to all that we're doing. We're going to VR back soon for, uh, we're going to have first hockey bets,

uh, hockey draft, NBA drafts, uh, MLB drafts, all that stuff is coming soon. So we, I don't know if we're doing shows,

but we'll definitely have VR in discord pumping up picks. So take advantage of that promo code VR, uh, with the betting sub over at 444. So, all right, buddy. Anything else with people? No, we'll have to do an NBA or hockey show just to do it and listen to VR mispronounce every single person.

Oh my gosh. Every Russian hockey player and like European basketball player. I mean, there's just like, he's going to go over. I mean, no shot he gets a single one right. No. It'll be like my mock draft. You you know it'll be just straight misses no yeah it's it's good content so all right appreciate hanging out with us uh for connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody