Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | AFC East Preview

Episode Date: July 9, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the AFC East in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the AFC East and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by four four four.com betting subscription at four four four.com. It's the only resource you need for a profitable NFL season. You're looking to win your fantasy league, play best ball, bet on any sport or any market four four four.com is where you need to be this season. I'm Ryan Noonan excited to continue our divisional preview series joined here as always by Connor Allen. What's going on, bud? Yeah, not a whole lot. It's an exciting division to break down. Obviously, you are a Patriots fan, as everyone who listens to the show knows. But you've remained, I would say, very objective for the most part for the last couple of years. And you know, it's been it's been tough.

And I think you've been willing to admit that heading into the season. You're not, you haven't always been looking at with rose colored glasses, but I'm excited to get your takes this time. Cause I think that there could be some reasons for optimism. So, uh, definitely excited to dig into it. And I'm, you know, if you go too far over the edge and say they're going to win the Superbowl, I might have to reel you back in, but interested to hear your takes. There is nothing, uh,

like less relatable or anything that like the audience can actually like, you know, gravitate towards is like feeling sorry for any Patriots fans because the down run of the last five years. So I you know, definitely not going to lean into that. I will politely accept your passive go pound sand which would you know would be appropriate if I were to really complain. Look, it was rough. It's hard not to be excited about Drake May and Mike Frable, right? So, you know,

we'll see what we think when we get to that market in terms of how the markets already responded to that optimism that I think we share in terms of making it better, which I think could be a little bit a little bit challenging. Again, reminder for for four comms where you want to be in terms of, you know, reminder, 444.com is where you want to be in terms of keeping it moving here. We started last week on our divisional previews. So if you check out 444 Betts on the YouTube channel,

move the line wherever you listen to podcasts, you can find our AFC North thoughts. I think that's a really exciting and interesting division. We talked about that at 444.com slash plans is where you can go over to scoop up the betting subscription again, you want all the picks and all the plays, everything that we're doing this season, and a lot of exciting stuff to come here very shortly in terms of what football is going to look like from us this season.

We're excited about that news to come, but 444.com slash plans to reach out directly to us if you have any specific questions, getting in the discourse really want where you want to be there because that's where all the official plays are. It's a great community. And again, we're betting on pretty much any market or sport that you can have these days. So check it out. Alright, AFC East. From a scheduling standpoint this year, Connor,

we are looking at where we are in the AFC East. They are playing the AFC North. So the teams we talked about last week. And then the NFC South. Bills are obviously the favorite, which makes a ton of sense. They are going for their sixth straight AFC East crown. Should be, you know, obviously a sizable pivot from the New England run. 7-1 for Buffalo to win the Super Bowl pretty much across the board. They are plus 360 on Fandl to win the AFC win total 11 and a half juice to the over. There's 12 and a half plus 105 on Caesars if that's your thing minus 260 to win the division. It's on Fandl and DraftKings. You were looking at last week Baltimore minus

140 to win that division. Buffalo clear favorites here minus 750 to make the playoffs. If you want to fade them, essentially a bet on Josh Allen getting hurt, I guess would be plus 550 to miss the playoffs. And they are as high as plus 275 to be the AFCs top seed. Um, also favorited to have the most wins in the league as well. Plus 450. So go to get started. Uh, obviously, you know, but everything the steam does in the regular season, I think Bill's fans probably tell you it doesn't matter. It's all about what they can do in terms of you know, Baltimore and especially

You know Kansas City when it comes playoff time, but what are your thoughts on the bills? Yeah, it's tough when you get you know teams in the position where they consistently are good in the regular season I think Baltimore is a similar dilemma where they consistently win a lot of games and then just fall short. And I think part of it's just Patrick Mahomes syndrome of just not being able to get over the hump there of like, you just can't beat Patrick Mahomes. And then they have the opposite problem. They're fine in the regular season the last few years and then are always just able to win the playoffs. So I think this could be the year. But I mean, they're the only team in the league right now favored in all 17 games

using look headlines, which I thought was interesting. The early season schedule is it's interesting. I mean, week one at Baltimore against Baltimore at home, my one and a half point favorites, but then they're eight and a half point favorite against the Jets, the Dolphins, the Saints. And then they get to our 12 and a half against the Saints, eight and a half again against New England, and then it's against Atlanta and then they get 12 and a half against the Saints, 8 and a half again against New England and then it's against Atlanta and then they're by. So it's like, I mean they're almost certainly going to be 5 and 1, like maybe they dropped

one of those games randomly, maybe they, but they could also very well be 6 and 0 heading into their by. So like, and then from a roster construction standpoint, like I don't really have too many holes to take. The offensive line was the top 5 unit according to Justin Edwards, like I don't really have too many holes. The offensive line was the top five unit, according to Justin Edwards, like offensive line rankings. They ran the ball really well, which kind of like, they reduced any of the volatility that Josh Allen provides.

Uh, and yeah, we're just able to like be a dominant running team. So for, for me, it's like, I don't know if anything, you know, you think anything too much has changed in the defense, they struggled at times defending the run, obviously there was the famous Derek Henry game against them last year, but I think they kind of figured that out and that was mostly due to injuries. So, uh, interested in your thoughts on the defensive side though. Well, I mean, they heavily invested. They, that was pretty much what they did all off season was just focused on the defense. They added six new defensive linemen, three in the draft and three

in free agency to, uh, the free agents free agents. Michael Hult from the Rams and Larry Ogunjobi. I think I don't think we've got those suspensions yet but they both got dinged for PEDs. Joey Boses in the mix from an edge standpoint, you know, just again probably just a situational third down clear passing down, you know, edge rusher. They struggle with speed to hold up I think against the chiefs. We saw that in the playoffs a little bit. So first round pick Maxwell Harrison, I think be asked to step in and kind of locked it in right away.

Um, you know, I think they need a little bit more talent at safety. They added Cole Bishop in the draft the year before. I think, you know, again, more talent, more speed. I think you see him probably in the starting role this year too. So they threw a lot at it and just said, Let's just see what kind of comes of it. So it's a pretty good defense. Overall, there's a lot of depth. Same thing with the offensive line, like you mentioned, too, like, everyone's

back. That's huge. All six of the guys that they use a lot, and they use six line offensive linemen more than any team, they'll run a lot of jumbo, which you can do with Josh Allen. So yeah, I mean, look, there's, they just stay healthy. It's kind of more questions that wide receiver, just like last year, just like who can win in that wide receiver room with Josh Palmer's in Elijah Moore's in like, you know, who ends up kind of emerging there will be interesting to see. But you know, Josh Allen is just kind

of the elixir that can heal all wounds. He stays healthy, they'll figure it out. James Cook has whatever a hold in, hold out. I don't know what he's, you know, what's going on there. They'll figure it out. I'll get him in there and should be an awesome regular season team with especially with the schedule. Fifth easiest schedule. That's tough. When you look at how these schedules shake out and you can have some bad teams just going back to back on tough schedules and you get a team like the Bills having an easy one. Like, you know, their unique three compared to the rest of the division is tougher. You know, they get at Houston, they host Kansas City again, and then they host Philly, I think, in week 17 or something like that. So late season one that, you know, could matter for both teams in terms of, you know, where they are in their playoffs. But I mean, look, we get healthy Josh Allen with this schedule. I don't know, that was plus 275 to be the top seed in the AFC, plus 450 to be, they

have the team with the most wins, probably the best ways to bet Buffalo. I mean, like plus 360 to win the AFC. I think I'd rather just go more wins because that's just a regular season thing. And I think that's, I think what we feel significantly better about their chances of, of doing that than maybe getting over the Mahomes hump again in the playoffs. Right. Yeah. I, I just, you know, I mean, we talk about this all the time. I struggle with like laying the chalk in the large field markets because there's like, all it takes is one thing to go wrong in some way. Like maybe, I don't know,

like the, the defense doesn't play as well or the offensive line is an injury or two. And then it's just Like Josh Allen's scrambling on that line trying to find Keon Coleman or wheel Shakir I don't know they're receiving course totally under it like like just not very good. I would say but Yeah, I mean to your point like it's there's they're tough to pick too many holes and they're gonna win a lot of games And so it's yeah I really struggle with it with this bill's team,

like find many much value in the betting market because it's very much baked in. Like if you want to bet them, they have the, they're going to be certainly almost in contention to have the best record. But it's like, do you want to bet like plus three 60 or whatever to have the best record? Probably not. Yeah. Yeah. It's the only way. And otherwise you're just, essentially if you're fading the bills, you're just, you're, I feel like even some of the things you're talking about, like we had injuries on the defensive side or along the offensive line, they still, they're top of that market. So that's also just hard to feel like you're

eating some chalk in that too. So they're a tough one to, to find a way to bet on. Yeah. One quick player note. I think that James Cook's touchdowns might be a little bit high. Last year it was set at two and a half over under. He obviously went way, way over that scored a wildly high number of rushing touchdowns from way out, but they also shifted to more of a run heavy approach. Then this year's overrunners nine and a half. I've been eyeing that under a little bit. Just maybe they use Ray Davis a little bit more. Maybe Josh Allen is more red zone work. Maybe he doesn't break. Like I think he broke like five

touchdowns longer than 40 yards, maybe six, something like that. So there's a lot of ways that that can fail. It's something I was ironing today. We remember prepping for the show could be an official play TBD on that and then also I think Dalton Kincaid props could be interesting at some point Matthew Barry on his like post combine prep thing said that like basically people he was talking he said the Dalton cave was just like really injured and like You know wasn't really like like it wasn't really like a game plan thing it was just like he was injured and like, wasn't a hundred percent for most of the year.

And you know, I'm pretty sure I know where that came from. And it was, you know, a very source close to the situation here, I would say, about as close as possible. So, you know, I think that Kincaid could be an interesting, like, I don't know, post hype bounce back kind of guy. But again, like they're just going to run the ball a ton. Like they're, they're going to run the ball

as much as they can, probably just like milk the game away and then be efficient because they they can run it well. So it's not like it's even like a bad thing. They just are. They're good at it. So yeah. Jeff in the chat with Shakir over 775. I mean, I know where you stand on that. I can't imagine that you like that. I don't like it either. And I feel like there's to your point,

like I just would want to, I think you can probably pick off some week to week stuff instead because like Shakira will probably be lined like the mid forties and then all these other guys will be like the twenties. Like if someone emerges, right? Like if it's Josh Palmer, if we get Keon Coleman, like someone really emerges, maybe there's some week to week value, but I don't want anything season long with with any of these guys. Really. I just the rules are too in question. It's almost like with Jayden Reed stuff. Like if the game plan dictates, they're gonna play a lot of three wide receiver stuff or Jayden

Reed. He's like a smash if they're not and they're just gonna run the ball. Like he's gonna play like 40% of snaps with driven snaps because Shakir basically most of the plays in the slot. We projected for a little bit more we have met like 843. So yeah, Jeff, have you got like a free bet that you're burning a hole in your pocket that you really want to bet on Shakir some way? I mean, sure, I think that's fine. He's just very much like a high floor low ceiling kind of guy. I think at this point, like it just I just don't see the upside with him right now. Like I feel like we would have already seen it to be

honest. Yeah, I kind of agree. I mean, there it just, I just don't see the upside with him right now. Like I feel like we would have already seen it to be honest. Yeah, I kind of agree. I mean, there's just so much room game plan wise for them to just go so run heavy. And, um, yeah, I got like, that's just a little bit, a little bit tricky. So clear division favorites and, you know, again, be really shocking. I think Fandl has like conference championship game markets and like, just, you know, it's getting really hard to like, like minus one 90 to be in like the AFC final four or something like that. It's like, you know,

it's just insane to kind of lay that to, you know, Josh Allen goes down and you're holding a real bad ticket. So bills are tough to kind of bet on early. So. All right. We'll make the shift shift to I believe what's referred to as God's country New England 70 to one to win the Super Bowl on Fandl win total eight and a half. There's some seven and a halfs early eight and a half over plus 100 minus 120 on Caesars. Best division price that's out there is also on Caesars for the Patriots plus six and a quarter FanDuel has them at plus 148 to make the playoffs minus 170 to miss best price there at Caesars

but great offseason I think we can't understand how bad Gerard Mayo was as a in-game well I don't limit to his in-game Because at the podium was just as bad, right? Like, say something, not hold up what he said, and then not explain why he made a change. It was just, it was kind of a, it was rough. And then obviously, week 18, the team is, the Bills are baiting you to win that game. You just go out and like like punt on the number one pick, which is just asinine. Again, works out. They had a great draft. I think Will Campbell is exactly what they need. But you give up all the leverage that you have from having the number one pick and being able to move it for more assets. You could have still landed Will Campbell and got a lot more. But again, they had a ton of cash. They infused talent on both sides of the ball. You pair that with Drake May in year two with a better offensive coordinator and system with Josh McDaniels, who's just one of these guys, just a lot of these guys in the last 2025 years, and probably longer than that, they just, just they're not maybe wired to be head coach in this league, but you get them in a coordinator role and they could thrive. And McDaniels has clearly been that pretty much most stops.

So really excited about what's going on here. And again, as we touched on offline, the challenge in terms of batting New England, and even in my optimism is the market's really responded to these expectations, right? This is a four-win football team. It really was a three-win football team team and now we're sitting at eight and a half wins so like we're expecting four and a half win jump

It's really hard to find ways to leverage it in the betting market So what are your thoughts on the paths and is there any way to bet on it right now? Yeah, and in my thread that I did about like, you know, look ahead lines and everything They're expect to take the biggest leap Favorite 11 games this year, which is wild. But- Second easiest schedule. Yeah. And when, and including seven of their first nine games are favored.

And so if you look at the schedule here, I think that their season is going to be like, basically it's a make or break in the first half of the year. Like they have Vegas, Miami, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Buffalo, at Buffalo, a little tough, at New Orleans, Tennessee Cleveland Atlanta like All of those games are winnable all every single one of them is winnable for the Patriots like I Mean if you tell me that they come out of that I think it's no a nine game stretch six and three I would not be surprised at all

You know like that's very winnable now if they come out of that stretch, you know Like whatever four and five or something like that. I mean, it's you're not hitting eight wins. You're not in nine wins. That's for sure, because it's basically made or break there because they do have some tough games on the stretch of that second half of the season, but they need to capitalize early. So like I think it's going to be made like a make or break time in the first nine games. I they obviously added some other weapons. Travion Henderson is good. Stephon Diggs, the solid addition there. Kyle Williams drafting him is great too. I think they have some kind of competent receiving room and then probably sick like Pop Douglas has been getting

a little bit of hype maybe in the slot there as well. So you put all those guys out there, the offensive line is still I guess fine-ish. It's funny, Justin Edwards has them bad, like he has them at 29th. I think they'll be better than 29th, but I would have guessed closer to like 20 and maybe like a little bit below average, but I think probably depends a lot on Will Campbell. So I don't know, defense continues to play well. You have Mike Vrabel coming in, talent maximizer, we think. So I would say cautious optimistic, but I would almost prefer to bet them on a game to game basis. Like, I don't know, I would probably take them to win against Pittsburgh, take them against Carolina, minus three at New Orleans. I think, I don't know, I mean,

I think the Saints are going to be so bad. So I think that's an interesting way too. So like, I think it's just like a week to week basis. I'd probably prefer to play them then bet over on their win total of eight and a half Kind of agree or give you be really bullish But you're not even getting them a good number like if you were to try to take it like an all to ten wins or something Like that like that's you know, what is now the word now? They're already in a half I don't even know what the price is for that Look, it's probably like minus but it's gonna be like plus 190 or something, right? It's not gonna be it's not gonna be massive It's not gonna be a ton of value.

Plus one 55, not even. Yes. Win 10 games plus one 55. No, your best bet there is you bet plus one 70 to make or no, I guess so it's plus one 48 on Fandle to make the playoffs. So you kind of somewhat correlated in terms of, you know, again, you can win 10 games in the AFC and Mr. Playhouse is loaded conference, right? You're very, that's very much within the range of outcome. So tough to, tough to bet on. I agree. I think the offensive line is probably better than that. You know, they retained most of the guys that they had last year that

were not very good. They're just all backups now, which is great. But at least they have like starting caliber, you know, guys that have, you know, played in the league. It's just defenses, I think going to be really good. Vrabel is a, is a talent maximizer. They I think are significantly better at all three levels. I think they kind of depth at all three levels, which is necessary. Like they signed Carlton Davis, like Carlton Davis will play 13 to 14 football games. At some point he will get hurt and miss three weeks. It happens every single year, but they have a little bit more depth behind them too. So that's something they haven't really had in the past.

So it's easy to be optimistic. It's just a matter of what does the Drake may leap look like? I mean, is there a Drake may leap, right? It's, it's hard not to think that if he could be as solid as he was last year with, again, I don't even think you can argue it. That receiving core was just so bad. They couldn't really run the football, the offensive line, no protection. There's more discussion. I think probably the best way to bet on the Pats early, this is a market that I love, quarterback rushing. There's a lot more talk about we want to lean into that a little bit more this year with Drake May. He

ran more in college, they seem really reluctant to like design anything that way last year. So even if you get like, two to three, even one to two design runs layered into that too. I think it's going to be a pretty interesting way to kind of bet on that. So you know, mid 20s, I think it'd going to be a pretty interesting way that kind of battle not so, you know mid 20s I think could be an interesting way in props to kind of attack it early in the season. So Thoughts on Jeff's mentioning may passing yards over 3275

It's just again season-long Passing numbers like this. It's just not a market that I think either of us love. That seems a little bit like, yeah, we have 35 Oh five. I don't know if he's really in reach to get like 4k. I mean, I have real, I have real questions about Stefan digs. Like just in general, I, you know, I, he didn't look all that good last year coming off a torn ACL.

He's old, you know, as Jeff mentioned, he was ripping some Tussie on a boat with Cardi B, you know, all off season. Like I don't know really how seriously he's old, you know, as Jeff mentioned, he was ripping some Tussie on the boat with Cardi B, you know, all off season, like, I don't know really how seriously he's taking everything at this point. That being said, like, it's the summer. Yeah, like, a little bump on the boat, like, he's all right. Yeah, like, he could be fine. I mean, it's just like, I don't have any reason to think that he's going to be good. Like, that's the problem. Outside of like, it's fair. I don't know. I mean, like what he was fine last year. Was it like, when you consider he was good, he was fine. I would say,

I think he was fine last year. I think he was, you know, I would say, I don't know. Average slightly above average. He wasn't like world beaters, Stefan Diggs. Uh, I think he could be okay. I'm excited about Kyle Williams. It's very rookie third rounder, right? So third round rookies. There's You know, it's easy to get excited about those guys than they You know, they don't hit you know, Mack Hollins is an interesting character in terms of like the run game But not necessarily like a guy I would expect to help separate, you know passing wise It's trivia on Henderson is the one that I'm really excited about. I thought it was a home run selection for them. You know, not hard to find like nice beat reports telling

you about this dude loves to pass protect and get his nose in there. And you know, those things help when you're a rookie. That's sometimes where rookies have trouble getting on the field. So definitely a layer of explosiveness that they maybe were lacking with Ramon Dre, who's starting to fumble a little bit more. So there could be some excitement there. So yeah, I'm bullish on them. But in terms of betting on seven and a half, I'd be here, keeping up a little bit harder for an over seven and a half, but eight and a half, a little bit tricky in the betting markets will tell you that there are underdogs to make the playoffs.

And I think that's probably fair, even with the optimism. Yeah. And I think part of it, the reason too is like another team that we're going to talk about in a second with the Dolphins. So it's like, you know, how that all plays in and then just like, yeah, we can get there in a second. But it's, yeah, I don't, I don't think it's tough because the first two teams we talked about, I don't think there's great ways to bet them. The next two teams, I do have some bets, I think for on the side and props and stuff. All right. So yeah, so you know, schedule is easy. And again, five games against teams that are expected to have a winning record this season. So like there's opportunity here.

Here's not a ton of like super difficult stretches coming, I think, out of the by. Yeah. Buffalo Baltimore. That's that's kind of it. So all right, we'll shift gears. Miami is next on the board. 80 to one to win the Super Bowl. Win total seven and.5. Draft King slightly juiced to the over. I think there's some varying numbers out there in terms of where books have this price. You can shop around. There might even be some

middle opportunities if you want to arb Miami to land on like seven or eight wins. I think there's some other stuff out there if you shop around. They are plus 210 on FanDuel to make the playoffs, minus 200 on Caesars to miss it. Ninth easiest schedule in the league. So all these AFC East teams have fairly easy schedules. Interesting number. Maybe I don't want to lead you to where you're not going. Maybe you have some pro Miami stuff. 25 to one have the worst record in the league, which I think is interesting because I think the floor here is

extremely low. But I'll let you talk to me about the Dolphins. No, I think that it's, it almost entirely depends on to his health. So Mike McDaniel's head coach of the Dolphins games with two other 25 and 15 in the last three years since Mike McDaniel took over without two or where like the one he got injured three and eight. Uh, the backup quarterback play. I mean, they added Zach Wilson. That should do nothing to, you know, Miami mills Miami mills. It's like solid. He couldn't stay away. I mean, I don't blame him. I'm sure. Yeah.

Lots of mills in Miami. Good for good for Zach. Um, you know, getting the bag a little bit and maybe a couple other bags. You might, you might spot him with Steph digs, uh, you know, in the off season on some boats in Miami, but now I think that like their offensive line did not get better. Uh, they're John who Smith, they traded him away. They moved Jalen Ramsey, uh, obviously in trade. They had to make a Fitzpatrick who was, I would say questionable, uh, you know, like in terms of talent remaining at this point. So I have a hard time getting there in terms of like upside, but if their guys are healthy, like they're going to compete in a lot of games that they shouldn't. And that's like kind of the problem with, with betting against this

team is like, I think if two gets injured or it's just over, like he has a, I mean, at this point, like he's literally one, I mean, his career should end if he has another concussion. It probably should have already been over, but like, you know, one more question it's basically over. And that point, like, again, the dolphins are very much played out of the worst record, uh, in the league. So, but that being said, if they don't like some of these look headlines are, I don't know, pretty weak. Well, they're, they're underdogs week one at my, at Indy, at Indy.

Like, I mean, Indy sucks. Like Indy is really bad. Um, like, I mean, I know Miami is bad too, but like, you know, that's just, they at least have some talent. Like this is like, to me, I saw this, this is crazy. Like there's just a lot of look headlines where I'm like, okay, like, you know, this is,

some of this is a little bit off. So I think that they're, they're offensively could be fine. Underdogs in eight of their last 10 games. So if you want to talk about wheels falling off there, um, that's it. Like that's there. They're in real trouble here. Even if two doesn't get injured like, and things don't go well, like it could just be over. Yeah. A couple of things jumped into my head when you were talking about that.

Um, it could be an over team, right? Like just in terms of like, if they are kind of clicking on all cylinders and you have healthy to it and they can still do some stuff offensively, it seems like that would be the best way to maybe individually game wise early in the season, look to kind of attack some overs. Where does Justin have them on terms of offensive line rankings? 27th. Okay. Feels generous.

I mean, it's a really, really inexperienced offensive line that I feel like it's built, and I would love to pick Justin's brain on it. I feel like it's built for like a power rushing attack. Some really big inexperienced like run maulers. That's not how they play football. There's no shot. That's not what they're doing. They're not lining up. Everything is predicated on timing and we're going to try to run space and get in stretch runs and stuff like that for a chain offensive.

We know that the passing game is predicated on timing and quick hitting stuff, but like it's a pretty inexperienced offensive line from a pass blocking standpoint, and you have a fairly fragile quarterback behind them. So that makes me really nervous. This is where I think like the floor is pretty drastic, right? Like, to your point, extrapolate three to eight with Zach Wilson in there, and we're fighting the Saints and whoever else you think is, you know is in the bottom from a worst record standpoint. 25 to 1, they're off market compared to where the Saints are right now, plus 450 to be the worst team. So partially because I think the defense could be really bad. This is, I think, maybe the worst cornerback room in the league. They have, I think, a solid edge presence and defensive line, but that just doesn't matter if you just cannot hold up at all in the back end. Like Storm Duck, Cam Smith, not the live golfer, Cam Smith, but these are starting to perimeter

corners for them this year, right? Not like a contingency wise, like you might have to use these guys. They are, these are your day one dudes. And that's, that's hard. Jaylen Ramsey might not be Jaylen Ramsey of a few years ago anymore, but like he's still an above average starting quarterback who could like spend some time in the slot

and do different things. It's rough now. So I just think there's a lot of floor for this team. If you cannot stop opposing offenses, this is why I think, you know, like you said, that offense are clicking offensively with that cornerback room is an over team, right? Might not be week one in Indy, but maybe because I'm with you, I don't think Indy is very good this year, especially if they

have to start Daniel Jones, early and often. But yeah, I think there could be spots here to attack Miami, you know, from an over standpoint. I like that look as well. I mean, the defense, yeah, it's like who's the slot corner, Kader Kowu? Best corner on the team and he's not even very good. Yeah, right. And that's, yeah, that's not saying a lot here. I think my favorite way to bet on this right now would probably be the prop market. I like Jayden, Jaylen Waddle alts, like John who who's gone, uh, I think Tyree could be straight up cooked. I think that's like also a possibility here. Fantasy points. That's interesting. Yeah. I think he could be back. I think,

I think in the wrist, he might've been a problem. I don't know. I'm kind of like, you know, I don't know what you've been doing in fantasy or best ball with him. Like, I just think he could be closer to, you know, maybe like still a borderline top 10 top 12 receiver versus what he was last year or maybe he's cooked but he seems to still have top level speed right like so I don't know I'm like going back and forth so like fantasy points does it has like this metric called it's called ass actually it's like average separation whatever and it's on routes like it's on routes that they're not

even targeted. So I think it like removes quarterback play essentially, like, because obviously that's a massive concern. So in 2023, on vertically breaking routes, so again, just like routes are using speed to get open essentially. He ran them on like the same amount, 2023 versus 2024. He was third best in average separation on 2023. 2024, he was 33rd. He went from 0.233 to 0.069. And then obviously yards per hour on targets per hour on foul by a lot because of I think the quarterback situation there. But that mattered to me a lot was like the average separation because I mean, your wrist

obviously impacts like play. Like I don't know, should it really impact separation that much I don't know like that's kind of where I struggled with a little bit so anyways my point is on waddle is like John who's gone which already I think gives him way more upside like if Tyreex maybe he's not like cooked cook he's not even that Cooper Cup cook but like maybe he's just not Tyreex of old he is like whatever 32 at this point, 31. Um, yeah, like that's, this is about when athleticism kind of starts to be just sapped. And so like I think Waddle Alts plus one 50 to have a thousand yards and then

1250 plus is plus eight 50. He just did this two years ago, even with Tyreek Hill having like a 2000 yard season. So like any regression, there, I think he could end up like right around there. So I don't know just kind of like a bull case I think could be interesting for Waddle Even though he's been kind of sneaky bad in his own right, but I think more that I'd do its quarterback play then Waddle himself. Yeah, I use a good column. Yeah, I'd be interested to see I make that those are I think telling numbers It's also hard to be like he's clearly not healthy with the wrist. Right. Does that affect him mentally? Like, you know,

in terms of like how engaged he is and how, you know, how he's trying to get off the line because he's confident that if he gets off the line and gets separation, he's getting the football. Like, I think there's probably a piece of that too, where, you know, just target rate dipped massively. I don't, it just seems like a guy that, you know, maybe a little bit of a front runner, right? When things are good, things are good. But when things kind of challenging a little bit,

like seems like a guy that maybe can check out a little bit too. So yeah, I like the waddle call though too, because it's still young guy, right? Still ascending in terms of his athleticism and stuff like that. So if we do see 17 games out of two, I think waddle would be the beneficiary.

It's kind of a bounce back. So good call there. Yeah. It could be interesting. I don't know. I also in like, whatever anyone in the fantasy basketball streets, he's a good pick in like the fifth round Tyreex Tyreex went up like six picks in ADP. Waddle went up like two in the 50s.

So like, I don't know. I think it's a little underrated. Yeah. Yeah. I want to get behind like Chop Robinson in the defensive side and stuff like that. Now it's kind of a rotation of Bradley Chubbs back and Jalen Phillips are back. And I'm also worried about again, like if you cannot protect or cover in the back end, like Chop can beat his dude all day, but not the quarterback because the ball's already

out. So yeah, it's a very, it's a very difficult, again, I think the floor here is really low and that again, 25 to one sprinkle on Caesars to have the worst record for Miami is an interesting future. If you kind of agree with us that the floor is pretty, pretty low. It's also kind of, again, another bet onto a not staying healthy. Jeff calls out like his season long prop, like under 3,500 passing yards. I get it, right? It's, it's under or nothing, but like, if it's an extended injury, I'd rather have the 25 to one ticket than the minus one 15. Right. So it's kind of the same idea in a way,

but baking on a little bit more of a severe injury. Yeah. I mean, we have projected for 4,100 yards because I would assume Paulson just has like 15 games or 14 games, which I don't know if like he's a very hard guy to project. It's literally just about against his health. Like, I mean, it's like, if he stays healthy, he's definitely throwing for more than 3,500 yards. It's just like, can he go an entire season without suffering a career

ending injury? That's the biggest question. Yeah. Again, they have not want to play off game since 2000, which is just wild. And I think Chris Greer as the GM has been there since 2002. So he's been there. Like again, get a job with them. Like that find someone that's as loyal, uh, is the Ross family in Miami, because like that's insane in the way that the league works nowadays to be able

to, you know, maintain employment when you just can't want to play off game. Um, so, all right. Last is the Jets. Jets are 250 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total. There are some five and a halfs juiced to the over. Draft King's six and a half, slightly juiced to the under at minus 145. 18 to 1 to win the division. They are plus 475 to make the playoffs, 600 to miss kind of middle of the pack in terms of strength of schedule here, obviously a lot of turnover here as well with Aaron Glenn in as the head coach coming over from Detroit. Steve Wilkes is the defensive coordinator, but I think we think Glenn will have, you know, say, probably trying to get more

man coverage out of what you can get from the Jets or what you've seen historically. New OC Tanner Ekstrand along with all of this roster says Ekstrand came from Detroit with Glenn. He was the passing game coordinator and the tight ends coach. But this guy got his start under Jim Harbaugh at San Diego State and in Michigan. This team is built to run the football. They're bringing over a Harbaugh slash Detroit offensive coordinator and Justin Fields entered a good offensive line and two good backs, Connor. I think this is gonna be one of those teams that the games end a half an hour before everyone else

because they just run the football over and over again. Yeah, and they have obviously two backs very capable. I think Braylon Allen's probably gonna work in more. Hall is probably going to still see plenty of work. And then Justin Fields is going to run the ball a ton. And the receiving course sucks. I mean, it's Garry Wilson and they're talking about like Josh Reynolds, Alan Lazard, Malachi Corley. They have a rookie tight end in Mason Taylor who I think has upside, but like again, he's a rookie tight end. You just have no idea. So it's a mess. I mean, this team is, it was one of my first bets of the year was for them to be the worst team in the league.

I don't know if that's like really that likely at this point because they're probably going to just run the ball a lot and keep games, try and keep games close. But I have some concerns about this defense. I mean, they were a legit, like a bottom five unit by most metrics, the second half of last season, once they fired Robert Sala, like they were just getting lit up like sauce was playing like shit. Um, that, you know, obviously are just like not, like it wasn't the same, like it wasn't anywhere near the same. They were in a legit elite unit for multiple years. And then second half last season just totally fell off. Maybe it was just mentality. Maybe it was like new coaching. I don't know, but it's, it's much less clear than it was for me earlier at this point.

And so if they're playing bad, like it's, it's a dilemma that we face every year when we're breaking down teams, like certain teams can want to run the ball as much as they can and then like they fall behind. It's like, okay, well then they have to pass. And then it's like, who is Justin Fields passing to? How is that going to work? Like the jets cannot come back from anything. Like they're not going to be able to come back ever because they have Justin Fields throwing a bunch of jabronis like it's

literally no one. So I have a lot of problems with this offense in general and then the defense so like they're I think what favored in two games and it's against Carolina and Cleveland and I who I think are both better teams than the Jets. So yeah like I mean first six games there's underdogs the first six games straight including like double or touchdown or more dogs and like three of them so I don't know I'm just not very out of this Jets team you could sell me the bridge they're gonna just keep a lot of games close and that that could happen if the defense plays well I think that's probably the most likely if they don't play well, I mean This this teams winning like two games

Hmm. Yes, and you have a worse record in the league ticket 11 to 1 so right now teaser Under five and a half wins. I think is interesting There is an easier stretch down the end of the season. I will say it's like I don't know New Orleans is in there Jacksonville, Atlanta, Miami. They're like one to four point dogs and all

those but I don't know. I mean they're worse than all those teams except for New Orleans. Maybe Miami. I think the defense is going to be a little bit better. I think there's some injuries. I think it was just kind of like you

felt like you were on a sinking ship. I don't think it's going to be anywhere near like the elite unit but I think they can get back to you maybe top ten ish units. They lost Jermaine Johnson early in the season. That was a problem for them. Will McDonald kind of developed late in the season. So they kind of bookend edge rushers. I think they're good like Derek and Donnie. They get it from the Chiefs. He came in, solidifies the interior of the defensive line. So I think they could be solid up front.

You know, they need sauce to be sauce, you know, to really be able to cook on the outside. They brought in Brendan Stevens from the Ravens. You know, secondary group's not great. But again, so I think you could see like a top half of the league unit defensively. I don't think you're looking at a top three, top five unit defensively anymore.

The offensive line could be potentially elite and it's like got a ton of depth. But to your point, like that's just kind of how you can maybe dictate stuff early in the game. And maybe there's something there prop wise, but like, I dunno, they, I agree. Like it's gonna be really hard for them to come back. What's interesting in the prop sphere here,

like in game by game and even season long, we know Justin Fields just doesn't look still young. That's your like bull case. If you're trying to sell yourself like, look, there's still a lot of talent there. He just, we've had multiple coaching staffs that have really struggled to get him to kind of the next level. What he does do though, is he will jam the ball to his wide receiver one. Right?

So Garrett Wilson, from a prop standpoint, and even from like a fantasy standpoint, is still kind of interesting, because he's probably going to get fed a ton. Because we know fields as a problem is a ability to get off of the first read and work through your progressions. Jamming the ball to your wider receiver one, that's fine. Right. Like that worked for DJ Moore, DJ Moore eight under underfields, right? Even last year when he got starts at Pittsburgh, like he's fine locking in on, you know, Pickens and your number one guy, but otherwise, it's hard to get off of it. So yeah, I'm kind of with you. I think that the Jets in Miami are closer than like Miami is to

New England. I think like New England is kind of of the clear second I think that the floor that the my that Miami possesses in terms of like some of these future markets are I Think they should be closer to the Jets though I don't want to make any bold case for the Jets at all just because I don't disagree with any of your points Yeah, I mean they're just like complete opposites like they're like like the Jets are gonna win on ground and pound and with their defense And the Dolphins are gonna win on to a staying healthy and scoring 35 points again. Uh, and so like, it's funny because I think that they're gonna, we'll make this prediction now. They're going to go one and one against each other this season. Miami is going to win by 31 of the times and then lose like 17 to 13 with other times. Like that's exactly how it's going to go. Right.

Yeah. No, that makes a ton of sense. It's exactly That's how the the Jets are gonna win football games. It's the only way right? This is yeah You look at that. I keep going. Yeah Jets team total points under 335 I was started doing some research on like using the look ahead lines to just like to figure out team totals and implied team totals.

Cause those don't always line up with like the actual market itself. So I can look at what the jets are at. 317 right now total implied points. So that definitely lend towards the under for sure. Because again, they're underdogs, basically everything and they're gonna play slow and probably not gonna be able to score.

So, yeah. I like that. Probably a good bet, yeah. There's also, I was looking into, because I agree with you on the division, like of like clear one, pretty clear two, and then like, I think three and four the prices are just not good it's like plus like exactly you can bet like exact for like

the division or whatever and it's just they're not they're not good it's like plus 150 you know for like exact one and two and then like it's just not worth playing I don't think yeah that's that's the tricky part. Jim's got a good look out here. Yeah, this Jets 0-5 start 6-1. Steelers, Bills, then I'm actually losing the schedule. I'm very curious what they do here. I mean, you're staying in the East Coast, but to go from New York to Tampa, back to New York, back to Miami is kind of an interesting little travel stretch early in the season again, like these guys are flying on their own, you know, like a team private jet and

stuff like, you know, New York, Florida, New York, Florida, kind of a tough stretch, which actually makes me think that the Dallas game is probably works out better for Dallas in terms of how the schedule breaks out because that could be I mean I think doubt me Dallas gonna be favorite comfortably but Not a game that I would lock in, you know for a W folks. I I don't hate this at all six to one I'm not quite sure what book has this but that's a probably decent look Dallas is like a in my opinion kind of a better version of Miami. Just in like yeah, you know They're gonna try and they're gonna score a bunch defense. Probably isn't that good? Yes, exactly. So I would say they're kind of similar but I would definitely I think Dallas is more juice at this point

So yeah, it's like Could they beat Pittsburgh? I don't think so I think Pittsburgh is probably gonna win but it's gonna be a real ugly game. Like I was just went to alright So I looked it up. I would what do you think the guess on the total is for that game week one? Because they have that I I'll tell you what my guess think the guests on the total is for that game? Week one, because they have that. I, and I'll tell you what my guess was after in the official total 30 and a half, I guess 39 it's 40. Um, I think it's high to be honest. I think that's especially in this game.

Like if the jets start with the ball, like the Steelers aren't going to see the ball maybe until like, you know, six minutes left in the first quarter something like that Like it's gonna be a burn off the first seven eight minutes. Yeah, that's that's pretty good. Yeah, that's what right there both leaning under Yeah, I mean it kind of it's kind of the Miami game We're assuming that there's health with you know, Buffalo and Tampa Bay, right? It gets kind of kind of comes down to the Miami game I had this ticket was I think last year 17 to 1 on Jacksonville and got down to the last game. I had this ticket was I think last year 17 to 1 on Jacksonville. It got

down to the last final game and they they won which was a bummer. But yeah I don't hate this. Looks like Jim's saying it's on DraftKings. So 6 to 1 Jet Start 0 and 5. Pretty probably pretty good look. If you can get anything. Who do they beat? Colts? Oh, fucking Colts. Yep. They stink. I think they actually almost won. Was it, was that a flaco game or no, it was not a flaco game. It was, uh, who played that game for the, I mean, yeah, it was a flaco game. Okay. Yeah. It was a flaco game. Yeah. Um, yeah. And he had 359 yards and three touchdowns and they couldn't get it done. That's tough. Yeah. That was a painful one. So it's a good call out here. I like this. It's a good market.

This could be fun. So I think, you know, they're probably taking more of a like season long look of teams versus schedules, specific stuff. So you might be able to pick off some, you know, some tough starts schedule wise and find some decent value. You know, they're fun futures. That's, that's kind of why I liked doing, taking the, all the game spreads and totals and then putting into like an implied points thing. Because I don't really know how they set like their total points like market like they have on here. Because it's, I mean, it's obviously not through what the process that I did, which I'm using their lines against themselves.

Basically, I just don't, maybe they're too lazy to do it. Maybe they don't think that's right. Maybe they're just like setting it higher because they know people are just going to bet overs anyways. That's also possible. I just either way, I don't think it's a very efficient market kind of like exactly what you were saying here. Yeah. Adam's question in the chat think that exact order Buffalo, New England, Miami Jets at plus two ninety has any value. I don't love that price because I also think that very much could flip flop the Jets in Miami. If again, we have kind of the break glass, if two goes down situation in Miami, it could be it could be bad quick. That's not like even a pro Jets take. That's just like a Zach Wilson starting with an offensive line that's potentially really bad, potentially the worst in the league, and a secondary that can't hold up. So that's kind of my point is I think Miami is

maybe a little bit closer to the Jets than they are to New England. Again, bullish on potential outcomes ceiling- wise if everything kind of works there. But like that's just game by game over is not season long stuff. So yeah, not a play I would make Adam. Appreciate you guys hanging out and throwing stuff in the chat though. Yeah, it's it's tough because there's so many there's now so many markets for like all these different features. And I think that there are good ways to play the majority of them. But like, I think understanding the range of outcomes and like, and, but then like we have to factor in the price too, because

obviously that has some level of implied probability, but like, it's also just like philosophically that we don't want to, you know, we, we don't like to tie up money on things that are like too short of odds for too long, just because it's, unless we think there's like a massive edge, you know, again, like obviously we bet the season long player prop unders because we hit those like a ridiculous rate. You know, I think I had like 75% or something out of my season long unders last year, which is obviously worth it. But these are a little bit tougher because it's plus 290 could have some value, but it's

not not enough for me to play it. I don't think I agree. Yeah. So sounds like we like some in season stuff reaction wise based off of you know, some Early new gameplay game to game things. I think that most wins plus 450 Buffalo might be one of my Favorite bets in terms of how to approach this division fine with anything under on the Miami side But again, I think even more so than the binary. Yes No one seven and a half wins

I think that just the 25 the ones sprinkled to have the worst record is is probably a pretty good look too. And Connor making the case for the Jets worst record that's still out there at 11 to one too. So if you're looking for some little longer futures, I think those are probably the best ways to kind of attack the AFC East. Do you have any other thoughts and summary that before? that before you go. Jalen Wattle 1250 plus receiving yards a plus 850. I think that's fun. Also a bonus one here that is well actually I don't know if you have any other bet for this division but I have one last bonus parting thought here. All right so there's some rumors swirling around right now that Najee Harris was involved in a fireworks incident and lost an eye. And so I've been you know furiously trying to confirm this rumor for the last like, I don't know, 10 hours or so, 12 hours. And I haven't been able to successfully do so. If you search Twitter, like nausea, fireworks, there are like 10 people who don't follow each other who are like convinced that this is actually happened. And they're like, Oh,

yeah, my cousin works for that. So I obviously follow those people and DMed all of them. And I was like, it's like, what's the deal? You know, and they're like, oh yeah, my cousin works for that. So I obviously follow those people and DM'd all of them. And I was like, it's like, what's the deal? You know, and they're like, oh, like my cousin works for the hospital or like, oh, my, you know, my brother is like a firefighter in the town. And like it happened, like there is a reported fireworks incident where people got injured in the town where Najee Harris grew up and his mom, like, I think still lives or like his friends still live and he was there on 4th of July so it's like I'm not saying that it like I don't know for sure happened but Omari and Hampton alts are very much in play so I'm sprinkling a little bit just you know and then

obviously if the news officially breaks on that like there's obviously the counter argument of like why isn't anyone like reported it yet I think it's people are like tagging beat writers and like replying to beat writers. I think it's actually more of an indictment that no one is like said, oh yeah, Nigerians is fine. Like this didn't happen. Like at this point we're like four days out at this point, three days out. So I dunno, I'm surprised that no one said anything either way. And so for me that leaves it even more uncertain to like, okay, Omarion Hampton, 1250 rushing yards, rookie of the year and thousand plus rushing yards. Like probably doesn't get there if Najee Harris isn't hurt or there. But like, if this happens, obviously you're in a, you know, are again,

very, feel very bad about Najee Harris, but like this is, uh, you know, you're in a really good spot from a betting standpoint if that happens. So, you know, we're here to leverage information and We're not here to play morality police. Oh, you like around with a Roman candle and things are going to happen. You know, I don't know. Yeah, that's, I mean, like I've literally, I've DMed three of the most random people ever that I like, you know, I'm not going to leak their screen names, but they're very funny names. And yeah,

like none of them, none of them follow each other. None of them are like, you know, related at all. And this all started with someone, you know, friend of the show, DMing me about it, like asking if I had heard anything. And I was like, no, of course not. You know, just like, let me, but let me poke around. So nothing confirmed, all second hand sources, all random Twitter people.

So I don't know, we'll see. I mean, TBD, if it ends up coming out, just go to your books, Jam, Omari and Am mean, TBD, if, if, uh, it ends up coming out, just go to your books, jam, Omarion Hampton, over 700 rushing or 750 rushing yards as much as you can. And you're willing to stomach and you're probably in a good spot. Nice. You could win anyway. You know, it could win anyways. That's the thing. It's like, it could win like nausea. Harris could suck. He could get injured again. Omarion Hampton could be amazing. All those things are possible. You didn't see it coming. Maybe Najee Harris didn't see it

coming either. So just never know. You might not see anything coming for a while, honestly, at this point. Yeah, all right. We'll be on the lookout for that little nugget little bonus little AFC West bonus nuggets. Maybe we'll be back with the AFC West. In the next two weeks, one of the next two weeks, we have more Najee Harris news. So I appreciate again everyone hanging out with us today move the line where we listen to podcasts for four bets on the YouTube channel again for four comm

Slash plans you want to scoop up the betting subscription if you want everything that we're doing this season on the NFL side We appreciate you hanging out with us subscribe before you take off thumbs up all those things help the show for Connor I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody