Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | AFC North Preview

Episode Date: July 2, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the AFC North in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the AFC North and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Well, hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by 444.com. Betting subscription at 444 is the only resource you need for a profitable NFL season. Whether you're looking to win at fantasy leagues, play basketball, or just bet on any sport or market, 444.com is where you need to be this season. I am Ryan Noonan, excited to kick off our divisional preview series. And I'm joined here as always by Connor Allen. What is going on, my friend? Nice little hiatus, post draft.

Team smell the roses a little bit for the summer here, but we're here, man. It is time to kind of crack the nut here and get into the divisional stuff. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, we were coming off our best NFL draft since, I mean, years. It was awesome. You know, I think it turned out really great for the most part. And this kind of crept up on us where we've been working on a lot of other stuff behind the scenes. And we're like, wait a second, we got to start getting this going to get all our division previews in. So, you know, it's exciting to talk about everything behind the scenes and, you know, each team, I mean, each team, it helps a lot for our process, kind of getting the right mindset, understand the certain scheduling pockets, even like looking at it closer today, I found a couple of different pockets for all the teams, honestly, were that are really interesting.

I think we're gonna have to like, reframe our mindsets at certain points of the season, just based on how their schedule falls. at certain points of the season just based on other schedule falls. Yeah, we definitely snuck up on us. It was just kind of reverse engineering the math in terms of getting all of these in one week from here until really the start of the season. And then we always like to have at least a prop show where we start talking about a lot of season-long bets. I know you fired off a handful. People can find those in your Twitter account, not specifically the bets, but I know kind of your process and your mindset around that specifically on the unders if anyone's been a subscriber with us last year. I crushed unders on a whole new level.

I think it's definitely been a shifting mindset for you over the last couple of years. Last year kind of went to a new level. So I'm really excited about that. But yeah, we always want to get that prop show mixed in there as well. So we're going to talk AFC North today. Fantastic division.

I think it's going to be exciting to kind of touch on. But make sure that you are subscribed here. 444Bets on the YouTube channel. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. You do not miss any of these episodes along with the prop show to come. A lot of exciting stuff to come from us. We're going to be pretty busy on the news front here as a company in the next couple of weeks, a couple of months specifically before the season starts in terms of tools and lots of different exciting stuff. We're

very, very trumpeted a bit to get some of the stuff out to you guys. So again, subscribe so you don't miss any of that. I'm really excited about what the 2025 NFL season is going to look like here at 4x4 and for the betting subscription in particular. So any questions specifically, DM us. We're happy to help. You can follow 4x4 bets on the Twitter sphere as well if that's your thing. So everybody jump right in unless you got anything else. All right, buddy. Jump right in unless you got anything else. AFC North, I mean, loaded. And the Ravens are obviously the belle of the ball from a scheduling standpoint.

It is a little tricky. I love to look at the unique three. We always touch on kind of the teams that they're playing, that their other divisional opponents are not, but just high level. All these teams are playing the AFC East this season. So that becomes like, you know, when do you play the Bills? Are you playing Buffalo at home or away? That's tricky. And then NFC North overall, though, all four teams in this division have a tougher than average schedule based on projected win totals, which, you know, is the best way

to do it. When you looked last year, I saw some work, someone was doing it, like you're typically on average, like two to three wins off, which is kind of wild, but this is significantly a better way to do strength of schedule than last year's wins. We'll start with the Ravens. They are not only the favorite to win the division, they are co-favorites with Buffalo and Philadelphia to win the Superbowl, seven to one.

A win total, 11 and a half5 slightly juiced to the over. They are minus 140 to win the division. You can lay 450 for them to make the playoffs on Caesars. If you want to fade them, they are plus four and a quarter to miss the playoffs. Best price there on MGM. And they are also plus 370 on Fandl to be the top seed in the AFC. Talk to me about the Ravens, Connor.

Yeah, they kind of made some good moves, I think, in the offseason to end up stabilizing their team and really, in my mind, kind of be the dominant presence in this division here. Obviously, adding cornerback J. Alexander, they Jenkins up, up front for depth. Uh, and then also on the offensive side, just stabilize their offensive line. You know, Ronnie Stanley returning healthy, signed extended Eric Henry, um, and then extended Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews still there as a flower is there. They've been talking up, Tess Walker. Um, like it's really at this point, I think.

Just a very, very very interesting team top to bottom like when I looked at the division odds and I kind of looked at you know, the Bengals the Browns the Steelers rest of the division I kind of think minus 140 to win the division might even be short I mean the last two seasons 12 and 5 13 and 4 underdogs in just two games a season at Buffalo and at Kansas City within the first couple of weeks of the year and I mean just in a fantastic spot, I think again, double digit wins, easily compete for the division. And you know, you're basically getting, you know, minus one 40 is not a bad price there.

I don't think so. I'm not, yeah, we're actually, I went through this week or this division and I have a lot of off brand bets, like laying chalk on like a future that, you know, will cash is very much not something that I normally do. But, you know, here we are. I think that there actually is some value at this at minus 140, even in a pretty loaded division. Yeah, it's tough. It definitely I think flies in the face historically how we would approach these markets or futures in general, you know, weighing 140.

Not typically my cup of tea for a bet. That's going to be obviously sitting out there for, for quite a while. Uh, we were talking offline. I've kind of had very similar takes. We've done the AFC North over the last couple of years, not on purpose. Like I've tried to not have specific, uh, you know specific biases kind of pop in here, but I've kind of been on the little fade Baltimore, you know, really want Cincinnati to here to pop up and like, you know, definitely think, you know, getting two to one or three to one, whatever we can

get from Cincinnati to win the division was probably the best way to go about it and be my favorite way to go about it. I can't this year. And I actually still like Cincinnati, so I'm still gonna have pro-Cincinnati takes. But I think that this Ravens team is really good and completely loaded and has depth in ways that I think they didn't really have in years past. I think Lamar continues to ascend. I mean, he Lamar continues to ascend. I mean, he probably had as good of a year last year as he's had historically in any year. He didn't win the MVP because Josh Allen was great. It was just a tough year. I think it was a seemingly like crazy quiet 1900 yards for Derrick Henry. I think they have

more depth upfront on the offensive line than they've had in years past. There's some shifting. Patrick McCarty is gone, but I think that they have some bodies that they can fill. Not having Zay Flowers in the playoffs was a massive, massive deal. He was so impactful for them in just trying to make it through and to beat Kansas City without him. It was just really a tough, tough task because he was such a massive point of what they were doing. So having him back, whatever we get from Deandre Hopkins, like he said, whatever, you know, they just have depth in a lot of other

places. It was best offense in football by EPA, success rate kind of by margin. And I just don't think there's any reason to think that they've declined. Part of my poo-pooing them historically has been defensively that I think they were just, I thought there was a, they were going to desperately miss Mike Madonna last year as the defensive coordinator, and they really didn't. I think, you know, I think Orr did a great job. And now the defense is better. Deft has been awesome. Nate Wiggins was awesome last year on the limited work that he got. They add Jair Alexander. He's not always going to play more than 10, 12 games. But when he's out there, I think he's great. They shifted Marlon Humphrey to the slot, which I think is a great play for him.

They needed kind of a deep safety option and they had Malachi Starks was like a home run draft pick for them. And then Mike Green falls to the second round. Cause I'm always wondering like, how are they going to generate pass rush? You know, they have kind of limited bodies. It's been just kind of the collective group and not a lot of dudes. So just such depth on both sides of the ball here. So I like over 11 and a half wins. They've won at least 11 in every season with Lamar playing, I think, at least 14 games.

I don't love laying the 140 just from a strategic standpoint, but this is a divisional winner and I think a legit, legit Super Bowl contender. Now the schedule is a little bit tougher compared to even the Bengals here. Their unique three is a little bit harder at Kansas City, and then they host the Rams in Houston, whereas the Bengals have Denver, Jacksonville, and Arizona, but I think they're just so much better than them. And then just from an AFC standpoint, the Bills have Denver, but I think they're just them. So and then just fr standpoint, the bills hav uh regular season wise. S

have road playoff games uh um I think it's kind o you kind of get over the like the Ravens quite a b early out of the season, week two against Cleveli fine. Then week three Det Detroit week four, Kansas city. I mean, that's really tough first four weeks of the season.

So, I mean, that's like, I think if you want to, if you think that you can wait and hold off, maybe they lose, maybe they're two and two after that, like, which I think is a very realistic outcome. Um, you might get a better price on some of this stuff, but like, I think that they could easily win all four of those games too. the And they've been dominant like there just really isn't too much to add beyond a tough ish schedule. It's 21st Easiest so whatever that is like 13th hardest and my 12th hardest so Yeah, I think they just offensively they're so hard to game plan for because they can be as Lamar's developed I mean they let in like drop back EPA last year, right? Like we need him develop as a pocketbaster. I don't know.

It seems to be happening everybody. Like there's so much continuity there. So yeah, I think they are good chalk. Sounds like you agree. Next Cincinnati, Cincinnati is 21 to one, best price to win the Superbowl, win total nine and a half, juice to the over. Fandl has that market there, plus 240 to win the division. They are minus 160

to make the playoffs. So, you know, market's expecting them to do so. Plus one and a quarter to miss. You know, injuries were a pretty massive piece of the puzzle for them last year, specifically on the defensive side. Ton of continuity offensively, basically intact. There's some camp battles ahead in terms of like interior guard on both sides But overall, I think they should be better up front to again health is as a massive piece as well But thoughts on the Bengals. Yeah, I mean their defense was so bad last year. Maybe it was partially due to injury Maybe it's partially to scheme See fired big Lou and rumo and so he's gone. I think now we're in a spot though

they hired a tentacled coordinator out Golden from Notre Dame I'm really curious to see how that works out because Trey Andrekson there's obviously situation there with the contract situation their first round pick Shamar Stewart from my understanding is still not reported. They're adding a new clause in the contracts That other teams have done, you know I was reading more into this like six or seven teams have also done this And I've also signed their first round picks but it is new for the Bengals and Shamar Stewart is basically saying I'm not not playing ball here has not reported so far to like any

Camps or anything like that now again, it's not mandatory technically for the most part and it's like, you know, just offseason camp But I mean, it's a big deal like these are two guys like that on a defense that doesn't have a ton of talent. So I think Al Golden's got his work cut out for him. Uh, and I, you know, I, I think that we, we look at teams historically that. Play slow, boring offense in order, like hide their defense potentially. And that's just not what the Bengals do. Like they don't do that at all. They try and let up the scoreboard as much as possible.

And that puts even more stress on their defense and makes it even harder honestly, for them to keep up. Because if Cincinnati scores in whatever, a minute and a half and they just are ripping them, then the defense has got them in the field for a long time and then happens again. And then like, yeah, obviously you would win shootouts, but how sustainable is that really?

So I'm interested in your take on the defensive side and see if they can get, if they're better this year because yeah, last year was pretty rough at times. You do. Amateur hour. I'm sure as hell won't be if they can't get Trey Hendrickson in camp. So that's going to be a challenge. The Shamir Stewart thing is not great, but I don't know, prospect take wise, like this is the guy that was fascinating in the pre-draft process, right?

He was just a shorty t-shirt all-star, no production. And you know, how does that translate to the next level? So, you know, that gets a little trickier if you aren't even in camp. So that's kind of putting them on the wrong foot. But I think injuries were like, when it happens, we know that it happens like, oh shit, they lost this guy and he's down. And then later we kind of just forget when it's like, oh, this is a trash ass defense. Like they're terrible, but they lost two corners in like the first month of the season in back to back weeks. And like just really hard to compete in the NFL these days

with, you know, fourth and fifth cornerbacks. And that's kind of what they were doing last year. So Dax Hill, I think played a really good ball for them last year. Each was transitioning from safety to slot corner. He's a willing tackler in the run game and played some really good coverage. I think he's going to be a great addition to be back.

They lost DJ Turner as well. Back gonna be a great addition to be back. They lost T.J. Turner as well. Back to back weeks, he'll be back. Yeah, there's some questions in terms of what they're doing in like linebacker two, but drafted a kid to Marius Knight that I think is gonna be a good player. I think the interior of the defensive line could be better. T.J. Slayton from Green Bay is there. They drafted Chris Jenkins from Michigan last year

in the second round, starting to get some more playing time. So I think it's going to be a better unit. I don't think it's going to be a good defense and it relies heavily on Hendrickson being in camp and almost matching last year's production. But I think we probably both agree that if they're like, I don't know, 20th in like, you know, EPA, middle of the pack defensively, it's offense is good enough if they stay healthy to be a playoff team and you know, they can still win shootouts.

They just won't have to win shootouts every game because even the like lower level teams are scoring 30 plus on them. So I think they're gonna be better. We'll see what the coordinator does and does differently, but there's enough talent if they stay healthy to be okay. Okay, I mean, yeah. And I think there's also another way to look at it too.

It's like, they don't have to be like, awesome on a play to play basis. They just need to like, do something well, whether it's create havoc or turnovers or sacks or pressure, like, they just need to do something well. And, you know, again, last year, it was just nothing. Maybe it was because of injuries. Maybe it wasn't. I tend to think that Lou is a great coach. So if he couldn't make it work, I have serious questions. But I mean, that I think it's a major question for this team. One of the my favorite bets are like ways to play this this team is with Chase Brown, actually. So like, Chase Brown, 1000 rushing yards, plus 175, 1250 rushing yards, plus 650. I mean he was a workhorse at Illinois, slightly undersized relative to other guys but like he's not really like people thought of him as like a pass catching kind of plus back coming in but that's like not

who he is like he he was you know 250 plus carries at Illinois coming in and then was a workhorse down the stretch. Now he wasn't very good but I think partially that was because of the offensive line problems and everything. Now I think that maybe they won't run the ball more, but like I think he gets almost all the work. So on a team that's going to be need to score a lot and playing playing like, you know, in a lot of fun high scoring games, I think Chase Brown could see a ton of work. So I think those are a fun way to play kind of like one of the props here because the passing props are really I think baked in kind of the upside outcomes. Yeah, look, he's the dude that's always going to get or you're going to get a higher level of light boxes than most guys, right?

Just based off of how you have to defend burrow and company. So I like that call. Another thing of the defense that I want to touch on briefly. They were third. They had the third highest red zone touchdown rate allowed. Those things regress a little bit, right? So they were bad when you look at like even as bad as they were, when you look at just kind of like yards per drive and stuff like they were, they were towards the bottom, but they weren't like atrociously bad. They just were really bad in the red zone. Teams were getting to the red zone and scoring touchdowns, converting at a higher than league average rate. And that stuff can kind of, you know, balance itself out, especially when you start to impact, you know, injuries and stuff like that.

So I'll be interested to see how it plays out, but I think it's a playoff team. I'm not laying 160 for them to make the playoffs. It's just too much variance in that to tap in the AFC is, is loaded and ascending. Right. There's a bunch of teams in the AFC. It's definitely a different path in the, in the NFC, but I would expect this to be a competitive team. They just, they can't start one and three, one and four.

Every, the last three years, they've started the massive, massive hole, and they just can't keep doing that to themselves. You know, they keep having these like end of the season runs where they, oh, they win five straight, or the, you know, the Bengals got to find themselves in the playoffs again. They almost did it again last year, but you just can't keep starting one and four and then hoping that Burrow can be a hero ball

because he kind of can he's fascinating but like maybe trying to win some games in September like that week one lost in New England at home. Oh, it's my gosh. Cost of Pats the number one pick and the Bengals the playoffs. I mean like an insane September right it's like you can't lose the season right away. One of those like type of analogies like, yeah, you can kind of lose the season in the first week, basically. That's got to be a W. Yeah, no, that was, that was crazy. I mean, yeah. And week one at Cleveland, I mean, like, I mean, we'll get to Cleveland here in a second, but the way that this matches up depending on how their run defense is like, I mean, this is another, it's going to be a sweaty game.

They're five and a half point favorites right now in terms of look headlines, but like laying an egg here would not be that surprising. I don't think. I think that's why it's in the five and a half is because I think there's probably a little bit of sharp money pushing up against like, Ooh, do we want this? We don't want this to get to six or what happens here. So yeah, it's, it's fascinating. All right. Steelers are next here. 45 to one when the Superbowl wins eight and a half, slightly juiced to the under minus one 25 on Fandule.

They are five and a five 50 to win the division. You can get them at plus one 40 to make the playoffs minus one 70 to miss obviously a lot going on in Pittsburgh. They've been very busy. Aaron Rodgers, obviously the big story kind of closing the gap there. Fascinating to get your takes on Pittsburgh and Rodgers, who, I think I heard Greg Cosell say it. And I think of how he like Rodgers can still move, still throw the football.

He just doesn't have a secondary movements that he used to have, right? Like the, once the play breaks down, he obviously, his legs were an asset for him. Right. He wasn't necessarily running for 30, 40 yards a game all the time, but his ability to kind of create is maybe gone, but the arm still kind of feels like it was there at least a little bit in the second half in New York. So what are your thoughts on the Steelers? Yeah, I'm, I'm of the belief that he is going to be fine and be able to do what's needed and what I'm interested in.

So I think they're giving him like a good structure to be in. Right. So obviously they, the offensive line's fine. They drafted Caleb Johnson. They still have Jalen Warren in the backfield. They traded for DJ DK Metcalf and John Smith. Um, they still have Pat Firemuth. Calvin Austin, I think is a little bit underrated here

as a field stretcher. And Roman Wilson didn't play at all last year, but it was like a second round pick. I think was just injured. Like I think he could probably rotate it and play, you know, by the end of the season. So you have some reasonable weapons here. You have like a great core there.

And then obviously make the moves on the defensive side, trade for Jalen Ramsey, you know, like diving Ramsey. I think that their defense has talent too. And so you're putting Rogers in a spot here where, I think the last, I don't know, seven, eight years have broken our brains a little bit into what the Steelers have been historically with Tomlin. Ben Ralthusberger was back there slinging as much as he wanted for years, years and years and years. So I think they tried to run the ball.

I think that's gonna be the core of what they do. But if they fall behind, Rogers can get up to line, check out of whatever run they're doing, and then throw a slant to DK McCaffrey, someone else. Like, you know, like that's inevitable. And then if they fall behind, like, I mean, they're just going to be, he's going to be thrown at 40, 50 times a game.

Like I think that this, this team is really a lot more fun than I think, you know, what we've seen just because the quarterback play has been So bad for I mean since like end of career Rathausberger basically yeah, so I don't know I'm like cautiously optimistic on this team I think that they have a little bit more juice than what the current odds are But I mean I'm gonna just your thoughts on the defense because it seems like they have Some talent like you know some some stars and a whole lot of just like random pieces that have meshed together somehow in the

last couple years but I've never really been like elite if that makes sense. It's a top five unit they get TJ Watt in camp. We've been here before TJ Watt has done this holdout all the way to like week one and you know so what we seemed and he wants to get the bag so we could be in that case again. The good thing is that they probably have the best trio of Ed rushers in the entire league. Um, I think Alex Highsmith is like massively wide underrated. I think he is a without a doubt top 10 Ed rusher. Um, Nick Herbig is awesome.

We stepped in last year when both of those guys missed a little bit of time and he's I think really dynamic. Yeah, I think it's a great unit. I think they're really, really strong at all three levels. I think with the trade for Jalen Ramsey, you put him big slot probably. Joey Porter on the outside, they brought in Darius Slay who's not necessarily that dude anymore, but good enough to be, you should still be starting in the league. It's a great safety room still. They lost Minka, but like one Thornhill is a fine free safety. They gave Deshaun Elliott the bag, who is a run thumper.

I'm absolutely infatuated with my guy, Peyton Wilson, a linebacker. As long as those knees hold up, the dude is a absolute dog. He's an elite coverage linebacker and he has an absolute nose for the football. So he's really, really fun to watch. So for Steelers fans, I hope he's playing football with no ACLs. You know, he missed a ton of time in college because he just kept having surgeries, but like per game basis was awesome. I don't know, I thought Derek Harmon was a great fit for them. They like Keanu Benton, you know, kind of transitioning Cam Hayward played really, really well last year, even though he's kind of in the twilight of his career. So again, pieces all three levels really, really good. And like Tomlin seems especially defensively to be a talent maximizer. So I'm with you. Like I'm, I'm cautiously optimistic. I think this is like

another reason why I think the AFC is so hard to handicap because Pittsburgh I think has legit playoff upside. Like I think it's a, you know, probably an eight to 10 win football team and that's kind of where they often are. But like 10 feels very much in the realm of possibilities. Yeah, I think it was a deep value better tweeted out and I know whale and Andy looked at like the the old sudden win totals of like, you you know over the last decade in win totals have not really been all that efficient it misses by two plus wins 69% of the time three plus wins 44% of the time it's crazy so like I think an alt over on the Steelers is very much in play especially if for some reason the Bengals don't

say except for the Browns are even worse like or the Steelers just win a lot of easy games I mean they're scheduled to start really easy Jets Seahawks at New England will be tough against Minnesota will be tough but like and then the by and then you get Cleveland like it's these are all were very very winnable games if not they're they're favored in three of those five and then there are one and a point dogs at New England, one point dogs against Minnesota. So like, I don't think that that's like, like it wouldn't be that surprising if they're like four and one after the buy something like that, um, three and two. And everyone's talking about, Oh,

the sealers are back and your router is back. That's not surprising at all. Now, I think they're underdogs in like eight of their next 11 games basically. So when we talked at the beginning of the show, I was like, well, there's pockets of buying and selling teams by the Steelers early, you know, selling late here. And I think too, from a prop perspective, Aaron Rogers prop right now a set of 3200 passing yards. He has hit that every single time he's played 10 plus games like not even close, because of the exact reasons

that I just mentioned, I'm not betting over on a seasonal prop talking around, I'm not betting that that's like crazy. But in my mind, it shows that in games where he's gonna have to be forced to throw, there's gonna be like insane value on all it's like, like it's gonna be his baseline props can be like 220. And then he's throw over like 350. So just like a future note that I'm taking down right now because based on that, like I can tell his props are gonna be really, really low. He's expecting to run the entire game. So yeah,

it's a good call out. Yeah. The second half shift of Warren Sharp had this week seven on most difficult based on opponents, third most difficult based on rest. So there's something to be said though, just in terms of like, it's a new group. And if you get off to a hard start, like you said, they're four in one. And obviously you started believing in yourself. There's a little bit more momentum. You kind of have a different feel for who you are

that can help move into the second half of the schedule. And again, that's based off of what we just determined as a fairly inefficient market, right? It's like some of those teams right now that look like they're going to be dogs against, they could run hot with injury lock and all of a sudden the Steelers, you know, the other their opponents do not. So you know, you're playing a quarterback that's out, you're playing a backup team. So you never know. I'm cautiously optimistic as well. I don't know how to approach it from the prop market yet. We'd love to see someone, like whether it's Calvin Austin or Roman Wilson, you know, emerge.

I think having Jonas, Jonas Smith helps in terms of them being able to go heavy personnel wise, you know, with the tight ends. But yeah, I think they're going to be more fun to watch than they've been in the last couple of years. Right. So, you know, Jeff's in the chat. Just, you know, love to have Jeff back. Um, it's store week, baby. Let's go Jeff. Um, how long do we have before noon and tries to sell us on the Colts, uh, or Connor on the bears? Um, yeah, we'll, we'll, we'll get there. Um, my Colts love is going to be diminished without, you know, just holding the candle, the flame for Anthony Richardson and you know, unfortunately flame is

Extinguished we'll get there, but it's it's joker. I mean it's it's it's done Yeah, I'm sad about it. Yeah. All right Steelers, I mean I don't the Steelers Browns to wrap us up 300 to 1 win the Super Bowl with the Steelers, Browns to wrap this up. 300 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total five and a half, juice to the ender, minus 145 on FanDuel. They are 30 to 1 to win the division. That messes with my mind so much.

8 to 1 to make the playoffs, minus 1400 to miss the playoffs. 30 to 1 to win the division. Again, I bet if you follow me, I bet on golf a lot. 30 to 1 to win the division. Again, I bet if you follow me, I've been on golf a lot. 30 to 1, sometimes like the fifth guy on the odds board for the week. That guy legit has a shot to win the golf tournament. Rarely even have a lot of guys short of 30 to 1 to win golf tournaments.

Browns do not have a 30 to 1 chance to win this division. They are not winning this division. They could be OK. But there's three teams ahead of them that are like very good. So fascinating team, second toughest scheduled in the league based off of win totals. That's really tricky. Again, telling you they're not going to win the division. It's been 35 years since they've won division. They were not around for a handful of those years, so that's not completely fair But again since realignment since they came back like 2002 They have not won this division and again with this quarterback room Connor

I don't know how it's gonna shake out, but it doesn't feel like the time that they get over the hump finally Yeah, I don't know if they get over the hump, but I think that they're going to be Either be better than what the market projects right now. So which is I mean very low bar I mean, they are sure second hardest strength of schedule But I think they're underdogs in virtually every game except for one or several two Yeah, they're dogs in all but two games this year No one game. Sorry, so it's against Tennessee, which I think Tennessee's gonna be better, too So they're probably gonna be an underdog in that game when it rolls around

and so But that being said I think that there could be a little bit of value on this team they still have a lot of good core you know off defensively I think is interesting offensively they have their offensive line is good but the quarterback situation is a mess trade for Kenny Pickett added Joe Flacco drafted Dylan Gabriel I'm assuming the owner forced them to draft Shider Sanders down the road. I mean, if you saw their GM's face and Stefanski's face when they picked him, they weren't happy. There's videos of him just very much not excited to draft Shider, but I don't know. I think, they seem to be handling it all right right now.

Drafted Quinch on Judkins and Dylan Sampson, kind of as their running back replacements there. I think that was a great move as well. And some of the early reports out of Cleveland from their coaching staff is that they're gonna go back to their 2021, 2022 ways of just like pounding the rock, establishing identity there, and then hoping like live to see another day on defense.

So I, I touched on this with the Bengals potentially, if their defense is that bad, because like some teams can win games that way. It's just like, you know, grind it out, hope to, you know, maybe get a stop on defense, a couple of stops on defense, a turnover, and then capitalize if you ever make it through the red zone. And so I think that that's probably the move. I also think that the Browns quarterback situation is bad, but just because there's not a clear starter doesn't mean they'll pick it or flacco.

I mean, they're really bad, but they're like, you know. Where are we going? Where are we going here? They can be fine from time to time. They can be better, way better than what they've had, for sure, way, way, way better than especially with Ed last year with DTR. So I don't know. I'm not, again, not buying the over five and a half,

but I think on a game to game basis, like there will be some spots. We talked week one Cincinnati, I think it's just a bad matchup for Cincinnati. Like I think that the Browns could easily just win outright. Um, and there will be times that like pick and choose our spots here. But I, I mean, before I bet anything like need to know the quarterback, need to know what's going on there. Deontay Johnson gave up on multiple teams and is now like shooing in is like the

third receiver on their team. I don't have no idea. Jamari thrash and uh, like it's a total mess on the offense. Uh, but it doesn't mean that there couldn't be something pieced together. It's just very uncertain. It's not an awful roster. It's really not on either side. Like Jerry Judy kind of emerged. Cedric Tillman flashed last year. They're going to be able to run heavy 12

personnel with running the ball. They obviously in Joka was great, but they drafted Harold Fanning. Maybe there's something there they want to do. It's just a quarterback. The Joe Flacco that was here a couple years ago didn't show up in Indy last year. So, you know, it was that small sample variance. You know, we're obviously getting up there a little bit in age. Seems like the leader in the clubhouse to take

week one snaps. Yeah, I don't know. The Chou Noir stuff is so interesting to me. I think it like became so much bigger than it is. That's a steal of a draft pick in the fifth round. I understand that all that comes with it is so much more and that's why he fell. But he's better than a day three talent. I just really think he is. And all things so far seem to be okay. Now he's buried. I don't think we were seeing him for a little while, but, um, I dunno, it's, it's interesting to see, uh, how that kind of plays out between, I guess, Pickett and Flacco to start, but I dunno. They seem to love Neil and Gabriel apparently.

Early in the season, I think we could see Pickett to start. My opinion is Pickett to start. And then we see one of Gabriel or Chedur like week seven ish when they probably are like one in five, one in six, something like that. Because then they play at Miami, New England, then the bye, or after the bye against the Jets, that could be an interesting spot to see a rookie. I, I would be shocked if they go from picket to flaco or flacco to picket. And if that's the case, that means the rookies are just disasters basically. So. I mean, Gabriel, there's nothing from his like time in college that looked like a Kevin Stefanski offense. Doesn't mean he can't learn it.

I'm sure they worked on it with him to see if that was something that he could do. Yeah, but they're interested to see how it plays out. Still a solid offensive line, a lot of good players up there. Again, that was another part of their struggles last year. Ton of injuries up front. Defensively, they're fine. Carstens Wessinger, defensive player, the defensive rookie of the year.

Tickets, get those in there if you haven't already. Think you still can get fifties. Should be starting linebacker on the team that should face a lot of Running back rushes against could stack up some you know some tackles and some other numbers there It's a solid secondary still they gets all back the injuries were a problem there last year being Denzel Ward New Martin Emerson in Greg Newsom is a nice trio You know, I like Ronnie Hickman. He's you's played some good ball at Ohio State. I like Grant Delpitt. All these guys were injured last year. So they're coming back to Mason Graham in the middle with Malik Collins.

Obviously, you know, anything you could do to kind of highlight and get Miles Garrett free is going to be awesome. Like, it's a solid, solid, solid team. Like, you just got to figure out the quarterback position. I think there's a lot of like high-level players that are going to be awesome. Like it's a, it's a solid, solid, solid team. Like we just got to figure out the quarterback position. There's not, I think one thing there's a lot of like high level offensive weapons, but I think they're all fine. So I'm kind of with you. They're like not rushing out to bet over five and a half, but like, I think they're going to be way more competitive week in and week out.

And I think you've highlighted a good one in week one. Yep. Yeah. I think that's an interesting one. I mean, there's just not a lot of, I mean, looking at the spreads, it's a little bit tough early going on. Like it's just like real tough. Five and a half against Cincinnati, which again, we think they can win, but then it's like 12 and a half at Baltimore,

five and a half against Green Bay, 10 and a half at Detroit, plus seven against Minnesota, six and a half against Pittsburgh, and then it's like even against Miami, who knows what's going on there right now? So yeah, I like I'm gonna not rushing about that I do think that an interesting bet right now off of kind of what we've been talking about is Quinn Sean Judkins

Over 675 and then thousand pluses plus 350 last year They'd be despite being again the worst team in the league or one of last year, despite being, again, the worst team in the league, or one of, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb, Deontah Foreman, Pierce Strong combined for 1,237 rushing yards. I think Judkins is going to basically all the early-done work, and then I would assume Sampson or Ford will be the pass-catching guy and maybe sprinkle it in some running work. But I think Judkins is going to see 13-plus carries a, and way more if they're staying in the game. I mean, you know, maybe 15 plus if they're in the game. So I don't know. I think that's kind of an interesting one there. I hate betting base prop overs,

like hate, like, you know, it's not something I do, but I do think that the upside there lays, I mean, a thousand yards is at plus three 350 is not really that crazy if they can play remotely well defensively. Um, because I think Judkins is by far their best running back and gonna see most of the work on a team that should play better, at least, you know, we would think. And then I haven't seen the data on like adjusted games lost due to injury, but like Brown's offensive line has to be up there just from like a unit standpoint. They missed so much time.

And now I'm getting these guys back. It's pretty massive, you know, like organic upgrade just by getting the guys that you would tend to be in the lineup and the lineup. So knowing that they're going to be shifting, right. Just a lot of like we're going back to the basics. Like you said, like we're kind of getting off of the. What we're trying to do to kind of play Kate Deshawn and we're going to go back to Kevin's to fancy ball on you with the eliminate limitations, the quarterback sounds like it's going to be a run heavy team,

right? Just shorten these games, muck them up and bring in some variance. You're running the football does that. So that's a good look. Six, six, what? Six, 75 is not that high. That's no, I mean, that's really, I mean, I don't even know what is that? Like even if you play what's a 40 yards a game, that's nothing. I mean,

yeah, I mean, I'm interested, I guess, to see actually, so this is actually something I'm going to write down right now. What is his week one prop line? Like if it's prop line is like 35 in the thirties, like, I mean, that's an easy over. Like, I mean, I can't imagine it's going to be because of the camp news is going to get there like oh quid shot judkins clear number one in early downs and then it's going to be like 50 in the 50s and it's not really playable but against Cincinnati week one at home I mean he should get there he should have an interesting game week one so I don't know They definitely have to take that game plan like specifically against Cincinnati Run the ball short in the game. Like that's it'd be foolish not to so All right uh Jeff wants to sell us on a borough

Uh over 35 and a half passing touchdowns ticket. Um I can tell you right now. Connor is not interested in that passing touchdowns ticket. I can tell you right now Connor is not interested in that. Feel pretty confident now. Play 40 plus, you know, get some reach down in your pants and, you know, grab a cone is and, you know, play some alts baby. Don't be playing just a regular minus 115. Do the do the alts. Alts are nothing. Great avatar update for you, Jeff. Really, really proud of you. It's good stuff. It's great. Yeah, I'm with you. I think, you know, alts on win totals is something I think we'll continue to talk about during the previous series here based off of some of the research that, you know, Wale and some other folks have done that kind of shows you how inefficient those are. And same, especially if I think

you're chasing overs in particular, I feel like chasing all it's like, if you think you're going to be right, you might as well kind of creep into the higher upside of it where you're kind of banking on taking an over anyway, that someone is guaranteed health or it's a huge variant in chasing season long overs. So you might as well just pretend he's going to be really good and play 16, 17 games and bank on the alts. Yeah, Taylor brought up here to you couldn't imagine not putting two units on Borough Pass here and solely play on health. Every healthy season has surpassed 4150 three times on his career.

Yeah, I mean, I personally don't love to just bet on health, but I do think that, like, I agree. Like, there is he's 100 percent hitting the over on anything bangles if, um, as long as he stays healthy. So, um, I mean, there's no reason. Yeah. Like no reason better than under and I love betting under. So I think that's a, that's a sign there that it's probably a good look on the over. Yeah. Like when Connor leans over on that for sure. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out again. Make sure that you subscribe before you take off four for four bets here in the YouTube channel, move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. We'll be back again every week with a divisional

preview as we lead into the start of the season. And again, you're going to want to subscribe because you're going to want to hear some of the news and announcements that we have tool-wise specifically with the 4x4 betting subscription here over the next couple of months. Get in, lock in that price now. It would be a great, great move for you to, again, anything you're doing in the football speculation space, fantasy, season long, IDP, if you're coming to hang out with me in the, you know, tackle streets, get in now, lock that in. We're gonna have a great season. So I appreciate you hanging out with us. Again, we'll be back next week. week for Connor I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody