Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | AFC South Preview

Episode Date: July 23, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the AFC South in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the AFC South and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by four four four.com. Betting subscription at four four four is the only resource you will need for a profitable NFL season. If you're looking to play fantasy, best ball or bet on any sport or market four four four.com is what you need this season. Ryan Noonan back excited to continue our divisional preview series training camps opening around the league. We're going to start to get more news. I think it'll shape some stuff in the prop market, maybe in the futures market.

We're going to put a bow on the AFC today with Conor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a whole lot. I think that this is an interesting division because we've gone through a couple of heavy hitters, you know, a couple of big, big boys and now we're at a spot where I don't know. I mean, we'll, we'll go through each team, but there's, there's a lot of question marks to think about all these teams. Probably more questions than answers for sure. So if you want to check out any of the other

ones we've done, like I said, this is the last of the AFC. So we have three in the bag already. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts for bets on the YouTube channel if you want to see our faces as we talk through that. Yeah, I'm excited, man. We are feeling here like part of it for me too is like we're on the other side of like major golf season, like down the home stretch that's barely hanging on. So well, I'm like duplicity of my attention is starting to wane and it is feeling like football season. So I'm excited.

So, alright, let's jump right into it. From a scheduling standpoint, the AFC South is, well, they get to play each other. That's a huge edge. They're also playing the AFC West and the NFC West. Texans are your defending champs. They have the hardest schedule of the division. It is the seventh most difficult schedule in terms of strength of schedule with win totals. They are 35 to one to win the Super Bowl, to win the AFC 16 to one on DraftKings. They are plus 110 on Fandl to win this division. Win total pretty flat juice wise,

sitting around nine and a half. They are minus 130 to make the playoffs. You can bet them at plus 125 to miss fairly straightforward handicap for this team in my opinion, Connor, I mean, great defense. It comes down to can they protect CJ Stroud long enough to let him work down the field? What do you got in the Texas? Yeah, I think that's basically where I'm at with them

because right now our offensive line guy, Justin Edwards has them at 31st. They obviously, they did a full refresh along the offensive line, but they didn't necessarily replace out the line with like good players. So it's kind of just like hoping for something new and hoping that it's different you know different results

here but I think their best rated offensive lineman I'm looking at PFF's grade was uh you know 39th out of 81 basically so like just above average and that's Titus Howard everyone else was average or below average along the starting offensive line at least least projected wise. So I mean, that's a major problem. And obviously they shift offensive coordinators here to Nick Kaley, which I think could make an impact as well. And then they bring in Christian Kirk, they add Jayden Higgins in the draft, they add Jaylen Noel as well in the draft. So they did kind of a lot of a refresh offensively and it could look different. I mean, there are certain offensive coordinators and you know play callers that can maximize scheme and maximize offensive line play

But is that the case like we just don't know it's a major projection so like I think that there's a lot of talk about how the Texas offense should be better and CJ Stroud as a rookie was awesome, which is true, but I Just don't think we know so like that's a major problem is there might be some some rocky starts here in the beginning. So they're right now they're favored in nine games. Schedule is fairly easy again because they're playing against their own division, which is pretty bad for the most part. But I don't know, I just have a tough time laying laying it here like betting them to win the division. Um, just because yes,

they're probably the best, but I mean, we'll get to the other teams, but I think that there's like scenarios where they come in second and they still win like, you know, eight or nine games. The offensive line just doesn't come together, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, that was a good point. I mean, the unique three draw for them is actually pretty tough if you look at like the divisions that they're grabbing, they're getting kind of the teams that have or divisions that have like kind of one clear top team.

Um, like they get, they have to go to Baltimore, uh, where everyone else, you know, that shakes out again, like the Jags have to go to Cincinnati. Um, but like the Baltimore, I think we feel like is the clear winner in that one. They get the bills, right? So having to play against the AFC East, uh, the bills draw, I think is by far the most significant, right? This, so they get that one. And then they play, uh, against the NFC South. The Bills draw, I think, is by far the most significant, right? So they get that one. And then they play against the NFC South,

and they get Tampa, right? So where is Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans? Those are easier draws for the rest of the division here. So that is kind of the tougher draw. PFF had some really good stuff, too. The 2023, the rookie version of CJ Stroud, who was electric. He was below average on non-deep ball in both of his first two seasons. He's really been like part, a lot of his stuff has just been the ability to make splash plays deep down the field. No Tangdell hurts a little bit, but again, like

you said, like Jane Higgins, Jane Manuel could help there. And I think we could actually see a whole nother level of, you know, I don't know, I think that there's like a whole other level of what we could see there on the perimeter with Nico Collins. I think he's really exciting, but like, can they protect him? Because it seems like he's just kind of middling when it becomes the singles and doubles. He needs to hit the home runs. They need to be able to keep him upright. So like you said, they threw a lot

at the wall of the offensive line, it's just a matter of does any of it stick? Does anyone emerge? Can anyone you know, can that unit kind of gel? When there's so much turnover defensively, they're great. I mean, they probably have the best edge do in the league. It's an elite secondary. Those are two places you want to be strong at. And they very much are so does feel like they are the best team, in the division. But not necessarily, uh, I still don't necessarily think that this is like a actual AFC contender.

Would you agree with that? Yeah. I mean, I think it would rely on the defense, like for them to be a contender, the defense has to be good. And then the old line has to be average. All the weapons have to come together like Jayden Higgins probably has to be good or Christian Kirk has to stay healthy yeah and then Joe Mixon right now started you know was in a walking boot in the offseason and started training camp on the NFI list so like I mean they signed Nick Chubb so

obviously there's some I don't know viable backups there but like Mixon was seeing a ton of work so I don't know like I think that's the bull case for them is like the offense comes together and plays pretty well and then they can maybe I mean maybe they can win a playoff game but like I really just don't know. I think that's the bull case for them is like the offense comes together and plays Pretty well, and then they can maybe maybe they can win a playoff game But like I really just don't see much more upside beyond that. Yeah running back what happened last year basically, right? Were they absolutely whitewashed the Chargers and then kind of got deep hands to buy? Any better, you know chiefs team in Kansas City like something like that feels the same again Unless there is another level to CJ Straub, which is very possible on continuity and health becomes,

you know, just become a team that just stays healthy, then there's maybe a chance for them to be a little bit better, but with how strong this, this conference is, it just don't feel like they're necessarily one of the top two or three teams. It's going to take a massive jump. Jacksonville's next, strength of schedule is significantly easier. It's one of the top two or three teams. It's going to take a massive jump. Jacksonville's next strength schedule significantly easier to one of the easier in the leagues. 90 to one to win the Super Bowl on Caesars 45 to win 45 to one to win the AFC. You get them

at plus three 10 on Caesars to win the division on the wind. Total slightly juiced to the over at seven and a half. They are plus 180 to make the playoffs. You can lay minus 200 to miss the playoffs. There is it's basically all new down in Duval. Feels like a pretty decent range of outcomes, but it's again, the Trevor Lawrence discussion that we were going to have every year. It feels like he's been around forever. Connor is 25 years old. So still on the younger side, there's a lot to like here. If you want to be on the bullish side,

schedule early is tough, uh, but it gets a little bit softer late. What are your thoughts here on Jacksonville? Yeah, I honestly think that they're similar to Texas in a sense where the offensive line is not ranked very well. I mean, one of the bottom three, uh, you know, again, according to Justin Everett stuff, but you know, know, when you add a guy like Travis Hunter, you bring in Liam Cohen, like, I don't think those things can be understated or overstated. Like, we're really at a point where I think Liam Cohen showed last year that he's like, probably one of the, you know, the up and coming coaches that can maximize talent, that can make the most out of very little. Just what can you do with

offensive line? Because when you have Brian Thomas Thomas when you've Travis Hunter you can do a lot with that it's just a matter of can they run the ball with whether it's ETN they drafted Bachel Tutin they still tank Bigsby and then can the offensive line hold up and let you know let Travis Hunter and let Brian Thomas jr. run deep because I I have concerns on that front but the upside is massive. Like I think that, you know, I don't know how much Travis Hunter is going to play on defense. I think that he probably plays majority snaps on offense, probably is not blocking most of the time. Like you can't,

I think you just do it enough. So it's not an automatic tell, but like, he shouldn't be blocking more than like, I don't know, five, 10 snaps a game, to be honest. Like that's like anything more than that. Put on some weight. Has he? Yeah. I mean, yes, but he can block. I'm just saying like why he would waste his energy. Like just put them, you know, like, um, and then defensively,

I would bet he's probably used a good amount and they're going to, I mean, I think the Jags need as much help as they can. Like, would you have a, would you rather have like a kind of tired Travis Hunter out there or I don't know, one of their third string corners, something like that. Like probably a little bit tired Travis Hunter, I would guess. I think exhausted Travis Hunter. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, that's part of the problem too. I mean, they also similar to the Texans in a way, like they have a great edge duo, um, you know, Josh, I'm, Alan is, is elite. I think Trayvon Walker continues to kind of out produce his underlying metrics but he's done it two years in a row. Uh still kind of young. So, it's like, what do you make of that? It's a little, it can get a little bit tricky. They'll be better against the run. The

secondary of concerns with Jordan Lewis was a nice addition from Dallas as a slot corner, but you know, the second perimeter corner opposite of Tyson Campbell, who's got to stay healthy. That becomes pretty tricky for them. I think the defensive coordinator change could be better for them. I think, you know, they were, they try, especially early last year, try to play a lot of, it was one of these like situations where it's like, this is my system. This is what we're running. We're going to play matchup zone.

We're going to play, you know, matchup man. And they got just, they just didn't have the horses for it. And they got exposed pretty massively right away. And then they shifted to more zone schemes later in the year. I think you can see more zone looks for them earlier in the year. I think that's better for the personnel. Um, it just is Trevor Lawrence is, they're second gear. It felt like that was happening a couple of years ago. He's dealt with a lot of injuries the last couple years

Concussions and ankles and he was playing through it and the performance hasn't been great now I think has the dogs to really start to separate if you know BTJ I think was Electric last year, you know if it is gonna be more offense for Travis Hunter than defense then you got you know another You know resource and fewer excuses to get it done. So you don't have to rely on the Parker Washingtons or whoever else is behind those guys. So there's optimism there in Jacksonville. I still don't love the team. I think there's some real Liam Cohn to your point, like kind of cracked the code on Baker back to back years. Like we're talking like 45 yards and 40 touchdown passes. So like, I don't know, I feel like there's something

there. I'm not like really excited to like go in and lay anything on them here, but I don't know. Three to one feels like decent, a decent look or maybe over seven and a half. Um, it can still fall short being eight to nine when team and you know, fight for the division. Cause I don't think we think anyone in this division is really running away with things here. So how would you bet Jacksonville or anything Jacksonville wise? Yeah, I think the division look is interesting. Three to one. Like I don't think that they're that much worse than the Texans. They can, if they can, like their offense could legit be awesome. I think that's very possible.

And so I think I like, that's a good look. I think to your point though, like I don't want to play pretty much anything in the minus 110 or higher range on anything to do with them is that they're really volatile. Brian Thomas to lead the league in receiving yards 14 to one. I mean, coming into last year, we were like, oh, he's a rookie on a team with a questionable scheme competing for targets with Christian Kirk with, you know, I think they gave Davis was there at that time. I don't know if there's someone else, someone, one of the, someone else is just running, running routes, like, you know, deep clearing routes. And then they also had, uh, what is it? I have an Ingram basically.

So it was, it's basically like competing for a ton of targets and he comes out and just actually crushes. And then now at this point, it's just him and Travis Hunter. Like it's him, Travis Hunter, De'Ami Brown. I think he's very in play, leading the league in receiving yards. And then I think the ultimate long shot here is if you think that the Jags can win the division and just start cooking, Trevor Lawrence at MVP at 50 to 1

is not that bad, I don't think. I think that within his range of outcomes, again, you have to probably win 12 games So like I have to be good. I think that's the lowest is like 11 games in like a shortened season In the last 10 15 years for quarterback, so they have to win 11 12 games again I think that's like top top range of outcomes, but they're probably not getting there through defense They're probably not getting there through running the ball So like Trevor Lawrence would have to put up again, like Baker Mayfield sets 4541 touchdowns. Like he puts up 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns and then win 12 games. He's

probably least in the running. Um, but I think he's in the range of outcomes. Again, it's not something to run delay, but if we're looking to bet on the Jags, I think it's not a bad look. It's probably the best way to do it. To be honest, like I think the way to approach some of these binary off season things to raise kind of bet on ceiling. Because the problem with the MVP thing to me is still like you're going to have Buffalo win 12, 13 games. Josh is going to be a huge part of that Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is going to win 12, 13 games. Lamar is going to be

a huge piece of it, but the Ascension piece, you know, could be interesting there too. And maybe there's better ways to do it because the schedule, just like last year for the Jags, really difficult to start, right? Like, you know, we haven't got to Carolina yet. I think we believe that a Carolina game at home, if you can't win that, we don't feel great about Jacksonville to begin with, but we see one off week one wonky things to begin with anyway, right? Then, then at Cincinnati, Houston at home, at San Francisco, Kansas city for your first five. Um, then you host Seattle, then you lose a home game to the Rams because that becomes a London game. So that's a really tough opening stretch,

uh, where again, things can get wonky real quick. And again, the Houston actually has a tough opening schedule as well. So there could be some like live opportunities to get better than three to one on Jacksonville. If you're bullish, you know, especially if Houston gets off to, you know, Rocky start as well. So you might not get the best number, but you might feel better about where these teams are when you get a little bit more understanding of how Liam comb can impact Trevor Lawrence. So, yeah, I mean, they've had just a ton of winnable games on the stretch. I think they're after the bar the drags are like 3-point dogs or favorites in all but one game So it's like I mean, but they do have like a whatever like so a tougher stretch

And then it's like a really easy stretch Tennessee twice Jets Colts Twice so like there's a ton of winnable games. It's just like I Feel like a lot of these like look headlines are setting up because they just don't really know. Like it's just based on like whatever team ratings right now, which are, I think can change drastically with teams like I think Jags Colts and Titans honestly all could like change a lot one way one direction or the other pretty quick.

Yeah. Jeff in the chat Jags first five I shared this I lost out last year in week five on the Jags first five. I've shared this. I lost that last year in week five on the Jags. Last year was 17 to one. I'd imagine it's probably in the same bucket. I don't have that right now, but I imagine it's probably like the 15 to 20 range first five. So I'm seeing seven, only seven to one zero wins. But DK, honestly, they kind of like, that's true. How many odds are a little rough. I was looking at like the division order bets of like one two on this and I'm like these aren't even good odds. I'll read

you some of the ones that I was looking at that you're gonna be like this is not worth playing. Yeah it's tough. It's tough. Yeah but I mean they have a weird schedule in terms like they have three sets of back to back road games after the buy, which isn't great, but they're all winnable games for the most part. Right. Like, I mean, they get to add Houston at Denver is going to be tough in week 16, but for the most part, there's some winnable, winnable games in there. So Jags are interesting.

Let's see another year for Trevor Lawrence. All right. The Colts 12th kind of middle of the pack strength and schedule wise, they are 120 to one to win the Super Bowl. They are 50 to one to represent the AFC plus 380 to win the division. Their win total also seven and a half kind of flat. They are plus 215 to make the playoffs minus 210 to to miss the playoffs camp started. We got Anthony Richardson, Danny Dimes splitting with the ones, probably a rich a little bit behind with the shoulder injury. Looked like Danny Dimes may be starting with the ones here. I have thoughts. I'm going to let you cook here a little bit on the Colts before I go.

This is, you know, I've, you know, Jeff and the chat wants to remind me of hung my hat on pro Anthony Richardson takes the last couple of years. Last year, maybe a little bit more aggressive. But it may let you go here first on your thoughts on the Colts. Yeah. I think that the more that I dug into them, the more that I just kind of came around in them, like having not upside, but just like probably being fine. I mean, 10th ranked offensive line, they hired Lou and Rumo as defensive coordinator, who obviously has led a very bad defense, but I think is probably a good defensive coordinator. Like, I don't know. I mean, I think coming into that had so many injuries. They really,

last year, they really had so many injuries. Like, I mean, coming into last year, like he was known as like one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, at least from my understanding, you know, like, and then obviously last year was just brutal. So yeah, maybe it's injuries. I think that he still has a little bit of juice. I'll let you go out and talk about the defensive side. But like offensively, you know, you add Tyler Warren, I think he'd be a massive weapon for him. He's still Michael Pittman, still Josh Downs. Problem is Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson were the two worst starting quarterbacks in the league with minimum like passing thresholds essentially like like worst in terms of pass rating, everything like it's doesn't matter what it is. They were awful. And so I think Dan Jones is probably a little bit of an upgrade from a passing standpoint overall, like a win loss standpoint. I don't know if he's done upgrade at all. And that's obviously the most important position in sports or in all of the NFL, it's quarterback. So that's the problem and that's the downside here. So like if they get average quarterback play,

they're probably gonna win more than the four games that they're favored in. And I don't know, I mean, defensively, I'm interested to hear your thoughts because I think it, again, they were like average last year in EPA, it was like 15, something like that. But I don't know if you think that they have any upside. They have upside, they were aggressive early in free agency.

Shevarious Ward at corner. It's a massive need. I really like him. I think he's a little underrated. I've been out in San Francisco for the last couple of years, adds, you know, an actual core like corner one to the perimeter, which they desperately needed. Can't buy them as free safety. So I think you're gonna see a lot of that. I think you like to see a lot of like box safety looks, your cover one type stuff, you know, post snap from from Big Lou. So I think you'll see that Nick cross in the box is kind of a hybrid linebacker with can't buy them who's been in Minnesota had been really

good in that role last couple years. So I think those are much needed moves at two positions that they needed a ton. A defensive line is solid. They had injuries there last year, but when they're healthy, they're really good. They were really cautious with Liatu Latu last year. They did not play him a ton. They actually had depth at edge, but they do not have that this year and they need a big year from Liatu who's underlying stats. He graded out really well at PFF on like a per snap basis. They need him to put up some like raw numbers, right? You need him to kind of approach, you know, 10 plus sacks or so and

just be in the backfield to be a problem all the time. So they really need that from him this year because I think the defense can be fine. I think they're probably still, their ceiling is still probably to the top end of the middle half Um, you know not great like to force Buckner's a ball or still You know with with liatulatu taking a step up. They could be really good Anthony Richardson is I Still think Chris Ballard is tied to him. I think they still want Anthony Richardson to to win my struggle here is I want to like, I want to just be like, yeah, wave the white flag,

wash my hands and my Anthony Richardson takes. I can't. Here's the thing. Here's what here's when we start. Here's the caveat. He is undeniably bad. So far in a clean pocket. That is not encouraging. If you cannot throw accurately from a clean pocket. That is a problem and doesn't typically translate well to growth. But here's the problem. We have a insane athlete who came in with no starts at Florida, right? Like that was the problem. It's like this is a insanely inexperienced

quarterback in college who played in a really wonky system and had no reps in the last two years. He is taking fewer snaps than Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and Desmond Ritter. So if, if the experience issue was a challenge for him, we still have no experience. He like, they were really like, I don't know, they kind of played around them last year a little bit. Like he tapped out, inexcusable, not great. But dynamic, when he can stay healthy, what he can do with the offense in terms of like the ceiling, he had some great fourth quarter comebacks, we've seen his ability

to run and he avoids sacks at a pretty high rate, which I think is a good skill and can translate well. So I think that if he's healthy and shows any signs or any pulse, he is going to win the job. He might not take starter reps in day one. It might end up being Daniel Jones. They want to give it an excuse, say, hey, it's a shoulder. But I still think there is upside there that we can't see. I think it's far less likely than I thought last year this time, because we have more of a data set of him being bad in a clean pocket. But in terms of them reaching any ceiling, it's with Anthony Richardson and it's not with Daniel Jones,

right? Daniel Jones is a team that's winning, you know, seven games, we know who he is. Whereas Anthony Richardson might be five wins. But there's potential for them to like, flirt with a division with a ceiling Anthony Richardson outcome. I think that's like a five to ten percentile chance. So I'm like again, I'm making the case for it, but I want to be realistic that I don't think that that's actually in the range of outcomes this year. Yeah, I think the problem with, you know, the whole thing and what you said is like he said so few reps, right?

It's like just, you know, that whole line of thinking, but they're not giving him more reps. Like they're splitting up to the ones there. He might not even start the season. When Daniel Jones inevitably probably fails at some point, he's gonna get thrown in there again after being a backup for a little bit again. And like, I mean, I can't imagine he's just gonna ignite the team.

Like he just, he needed to have played the last year and just like, you know, or last, whatever, couple of times and just like three years at this point and just like, you know, get the shit kicked out of him. But he needed more time to do that. Like he just needed longer and longer. Now Chris Ballard's on the hot seat, Shane Steichen's on the hot seat.

Like they're gonna do what is ever best for them to win games. You know, I saw a tweet again, it was just a rumor, but it was like, Jim Ursay's kids like aren't, you know, don't really like Shane Stikin, uh, that all that much. And like, like, you know, they're not, they're not letting him, the leash is not very long basically anymore. I mean, by all accounts was, it was an awesome guy, uh, like, you know, from person to person. Uh, and so I don't know, I think that there's like some, maybe not underrated downside, but just like desperation here for like this,

for like the Colts coaching staff, which is a problem when you have a quarterback who's still a bit of a project, like in an ideal scenario, you just let them go for another two years or a year and a half and you're like, okay, well, we're bad enough that we probably got a high pick and we get a new quarterback, et cetera.

But I don't think that they're okay with that. I think that's just like, they got to win to save their jobs. So I think that's a problem for this Colts team. So that's kind of where I go back and forth. I'm like, I don't disagree that there's probably some upside there. Chris Ballard actually came out and said yesterday and was like, you saw like our people mad with Sam Darnold, our people mad with Baker Mayfield, even after a slow start to their careers.

Like, we haven't given up on him yet, etc. But between that, him giving up on his team last year, like there was rumors about him just like not taking meetings seriously. Like, I don't know, man. I really struggle with this. I mean, the good news is he's healthy. I thought he was going to miss part of training camp. That's like, that's like over. That's just, it's, you know, he's a backup at this point next year, somewhere else. Yeah. I've had the Steelers like dude, like this is, that's the guy I'm going after. He's going to cost you very little of the trade for at this point.

Or, you know, I don't know. I just think that that's the type of, you know, a team that doesn't have a long-term answer at the position who was trying to figure out something post Aaron Rogers. Like, that's the guy I want to take a chance on and just kind of see what could what could happen you know you never know what they need to do is so Adam pointed out here Tyler Warren season what they need to do is put uh Tyler Warren in a quarterback more and running back and just like go crazy like run some like bullshit college offense and just like do some crazy shit with with Tyler Warren because he's awesome um I think that was a great a great pick by them and they still have like good office of players. They just need to like find ways to get them the ball because like Pittman's not

bad. I mean, I don't think he's, I think you're a Michael Pittman guy more than I am, but, um, I enjoyed last year too. He wasn't, he wasn't, you know, he's not a wide receiver one. He's not a top level explosive, complete alpha, but, uh, you know, he's I think a good football player, but hey, these things also are harder when you don't have a quarterback that can throw the ball to you when you're open. And that's something that Anthony Richardson struggled with last year. You know, Flacco also I think fell off a cliff. You know, we thought he was, you know, it wasn't what we saw in Cleveland for sure. So yeah, Jeff, I'm loyal, man. Look, okay, I

ride with my guys I hope my pessimism compared to last year's coming through a little bit Um, I think it's gonna get a lot harder for him But if i'm a franchise moving forward like that's the type of talent you want to bet on and connor makes great points Referencing sam darnold and baker mayfield those guys actually showed it in college and had actual reps It's like a lot of reps, right? Like Anthony Richard had no reps in a really, really, really weird type of, you know, scheme in in Florida. So probably doesn't happen in for Anthony Richardson in Indy. But I wouldn't write them off of having an opportunity to be in

a league or let's get them on one of like, I don't know, XFL, and just see watch him just dominate XFL. Like he's running for like 80 yards a game and trucking dudes. I mean, he's insane, insane athlete. I would, I would love to see him just like as a backup in like Baltimore or something and learn from like Lamar and like how to actually throw the ball, you know, a little bit, but then just like use him, you know, as a backup and it'd be fun when he comes in.

Cause I think The monkey could probably figure some stuff out with him Pretty quick also Adams point here. No way should in DB favorite at home verse healthy Miami. I kind of agree Maybe I'm just I don't know maybe maybe indeed just like bullies them up front and like runs the ball well and like can get pressure on them, but Like I think Miami's a better team can get pressure on them. But like, I think Miami's a better team. Yeah, I think it's probably pretty close. But um, yeah, we'll see. I mean, I worry about Miami secondary. The problem is, is indeed the team built in week one to take advantage of week secondary? I don't know how much right?

Definitely not. All right, we'll shift last to the Titans here. They are 230 to one to win the Super Bowl 100 to represent the AFC nine to one to win the division win total juice to the over five and a half. They are 230 to one to win the Super Bowl. 100 to represent the AFC. 9 to 1 to win the division, win total, juice to the overt. 5 and a half, they are plus 4 and a quarter to make the playoffs. Minus 600 to miss year two of the Brian Callahan, Dinnard Wilson regime. This time, first pick, Ken Ward at quarterback, hoping they can get some better answers and maybe protect their number one pick better than they did last year with Will Levis and the assortment of quarterbacks there in Tennessee. Connor, what are your thoughts on the Titans? Yeah, I think their offensive line play is going to be interesting. We have them at 22nd. I think that's about right. I think an average unit could be okay here. But I think Cam Ward just changes the dynamic of this team like a lot.

You know, but Will Levis was just kind of like, I don't wanna say dead on like, you know, arrival, but kind of like we knew pretty quick that he just wasn't the answer. Whereas Cam Ward kind of reminded me a little bit of Deshaun Watson, but with like a stronger arm in college, just like a playmaker, extended plays really well, like doesn't really like run, but like can move essentially.

So like, you know, I think he just reminded me a lot of Deshaun Watson back when he was, you know, good in college and like even his first two years or so in Houston, I think were somewhat comparable. And so now, you know, he has Calvin Ridley still they have a decent backfield with Pollard and Tajay Spears. They drafted Eulic I of Menor as well. Van Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, I don't know.

I think that this team, they're gonna win some games that they shouldn't. They're gonna win some games that they shouldn't for sure. And it would not surprise me at all if they're better than the Colts. They will finish with more wins than the Colts. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they compete with the Jags. If the Jags don't figure out their own line or, you know, maybe their defense isn't playing as well. Like, I don't know.

I think that it's just like hard, hard to quantify how much a new quarterback can change things very quickly. Um, it's almost like, I mean, I don't think that Washington had a very good team last year with Jayden Daniels and Jayden Daniels came in and played incredible and immediately changed the, like changed the direction and the team and the franchise and everything. Like I don't think the Tennessee is that much worse than what Washington had last year is my point. And so yeah, I don't think Ken Ward's on the same level of prospect as Jaden Daniels, but it's like hindsight analysis, you know, like I don't know. I mean, it's it's certainly

within Ken Ward's range of outcomes to come in, just be a baller from day one and for the Titans to be like fine, like a 500 team. That wouldn't be surprising at all. Yeah. I worry a little bit about the offensive line. They invested in it, which is good to see, but I'm not sure that I feel great about Dan Moore. I mean, the Dan Moore is like a good one-year stopgap. It was a pretty egregious contract for a guy that's not like a good one year stopgap. It was a pretty Egregious contract for a guy that's not been very good for most of his career Yeah, I worry about the offensive weapons outside of

Calvin Ridley the scene terms of like what's left of you know Tyler Lockett at this point I'm not quite sure not as bullish and the defense I think just got. I don't think it was a really good unit to begin with. They kind of like, I don't know, spun the wheel and brought in bodies to replace better bodies that left. They need, the Jerry's need to be better and healthy. He really struggled last year. The guys around him, corner, are not particularly strong. I don't feel great about, so I worry about the secondary. So I don't know, I feel like this is a five, six win football team, even in the encouraging Cam War situation. Maybe you can elevate and maybe we get like, really takes a step forward and the run game is really good.

And they become, you know, healthy again. We have the Callahan's and they're really good at developing offensive linemen. You got Skronsky in the second year and you know, maybe there's something there that I'm not seeing, but uh, schedules is okay. Um, but I don't know that there, how many games are they favored? And they're probably not favorite at many at all. Right. Two, two. Okay. More than the, more than the saints, I think more than the, yeah,

more than the said their favorite at their, but they're their favorite at home three and a half against the saints for whatever that says about the saints. Yeah. Week 17.. Their favorite at their favorite, their favorite at home, three and a half against the saints for whatever that says about the saints. Yeah. Week 17. You need that one. Yeah. Which I really week 17 game. Yeah. Oh God. That is, that is rough. Yeah. I mean, this started just like at Denver seven, F point dogs against the Rams five and F point dogs, indie minus one, you know, one F one favorites at Houston, six point dogs at Arizona,

five and a half point dogs at the Raiders three point dogs. Like it's, it's pretty tough before the buy to some extent. So, and especially week one at Denver. I mean, if cam ward plays even decent, that's like a win for the Titans because that is just, I can't imagine much tougher week one road, week one game for a rookie, to be honest. Yeah, that was one of those early lines that jumped pretty quickly as soon as week one lines got posted and they got through the key number pretty quickly. Because I think it opened at like, six and a half or something like that. And then just, you know, kind of most right away. So yeah, I don't know, I'm less bullish. And maybe it just, you know, but Ken Ward, maybe he's a dude, right? And if came words, a dude, then you're right.

And this team is probably seven, eight wins by still saying that he has to be, right? So, uh, that's kind of the only bull case scenario there. Cause yeah, I don't, I think the defense is a below average unit with not a lot of like pass rush chops, you know, like when your best pass rushers, you know, big guy from the interior, the defensive line and Jeffrey Simmons, it's not great. You know, it's nice. It's like supplementary when you have that and that can really help an edge rusher. It gets harder to defend. But when you're like really trying to lean on that guy being your, your alpha, that's, that's tough. I don't see anyone sniffing

10 sacks on this team, uh, which is, which is pretty, pretty tough. I don't see anyone sniffing 10 sacks on this team, which is pretty tough. So then again, when you don't have the dogs in the back end that kind of lock it down either, that becomes a kind of a bad combination. So yeah, I think they're, I don't do the worst team in the league necessarily. Again, unless, unless Ken Ward's not the dude and something happens there pretty quickly, we'll find out.'s not gonna be will love us behind him now because you know, love is Is injured who's who's our backup and behind? Oh Brandon Allen Tim Boyle. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. Do you see that clip? Yeah, the clip was funny. Yeah, they're getting so pissed Like like are you happy with the quarterback room? I got I mean those guys suck

Why were they mad about that? Like those guys are terrible Why why can the guy not ask the question? Like these are reporters covering the team. Why would he not ask the question? You just lost your backup. Are you comfortable with the backups you have? Mike, so weird. Your boy, uh, variable was given Ben Bolin or whatever. Let me not be more excited about the Mike variable era. I'm very excited. I'm very, very excited. He's a great player for us. Just kind of, you know, he's a patriot from that era. Like he represented that team, those teams at that time. And yeah, he's just, he's great. I mean, Mayo was so bad in,

Yeah, he's just, he's great. I mean, Mayo was so bad in, you know, in the press conferences last year, he was brutal. They just kind of lying to the media, trying to manipulate the media. Like you can't do that. You're not Belichick. You don't have, you know, the chops to go ahead and do that. And now it's just kind of refreshing. So yeah, Tennessee, I think he's going to miss them. I think they still, they still do because he was just consistently got that team to a spot that they probably shouldn't have been Based on the roster. So we'll see if Brian Callahan can can do more of the same. So Alright best way to bet the division. What do you think here?

see, I was looking at like alternative ways of like trying to figure out like the exact one two combos basically of Of this like maybe if the Texans fell, but just the odds, like I don't know if it's like a DraftKings thing or like what the problem is here, because even, so I was thinking like, oh, Jags, Titans or Jags Colts, like Jags Colts is like eight to one. That's like, that's not that good.

Like that basically requires you to start getting hurt or like both the Jags in the Colts being awesome I don't like that at all. I mean Texans I honestly think that better play might just be like Texans Jags or Texans Colts cuz that's plus 450 and plus 650 And that might make sense because like the Texas are still the best team Yeah, but like you're just not getting enough juice for putting the Jags or Colts like out of them to be honest in the market Right now, you know, you know, we're just I mean just to putting the Jags or Colts like out of them to be honest in the market right now. No. Yeah. No. I mean,

just to bet on Jags or Colts to win the division. I think. Yeah. Jags probably Jack. Like, I don't know. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. So I just can't get there with them. We're talking about, you know, like the most, like you said, the most important position in sports. We're talking about a high pedigree 25 year old quarterback who's shown that he can be the dude that could ascend versus, you know, the Anthony Richardson ascension is very unlikely.

And we know what Dana Jones is at this point, right? So that becomes very clear that it's a, you know, then who knows, right? Travis Hunter just might be like special instantly. Right. And then even if he's only contributing 30% of snaps on the defensive side, right. If you can put him in on, you know, clear passing downs and you can lock up the other side, Tyson Campbell stays healthy. That team can be interesting defensively. Very good linebacker in core. Eric Murray is in. It's a better unit if the coordinator can get more out of them than what they did last year. So Jags would probably be the way to go. Three to one if you're looking for a little bit of a longer shot and you're

not really bullish on Stroud and everything going on in Houston. So if you are then probably plus 110 to win the division That's your thing Is probably okay, too, but that's not that's not how I want to attack futures Yeah, the the short like I don't even know if they're not technically favorites But like the the short odds ones with like the team is not really like complete are not my favorite bets You know, like I think we talked about, um, maybe the Ravens being a decent look at like minus one 50. I mean, they're just like a complete team.

They're an awesome team that has like barring Lamar getting injured. They could suffer other injuries and probably still be fine and still win the division and still be the best. This Texans team is, I mean, there there's legitimate outs even with the play guys that they have that for them to not be the best team in this division Yeah, yeah. All right. Well, I'm not gonna put you in the spot for your AFC stuff Maybe we'll recap that we'll put that as a recap section for the end of our shows or maybe we'll give that a separate show Is that puts it? Yeah, see so I know I didn't actually prepare it either, but I just just think that's it

I still think of the bank. I mean, I was on the Ravens. I think the Ravens are, um, it might be my Superbowl pick to be honest. I think they're just they're that good. It's funny. The more that I look at futures, like I'm prepping for like other shows where they're always asking like, Oh, you're gonna pick the Superbowl, you're gonna pick the AFC, NFC, et cetera. Like they have, he has three awesome contenders, like the Ravens, the chiefs, the, uh, you know, Bills, and then a couple other like, you know, scrappy ones. And we talked about the Broncos, um, talked about, you know, again,

maybe the Patriots making ascension, maybe the Chargers are somewhat in play. Um, you know, et cetera. Like there's other teams that I think can like, maybe would be like a top three team in the NFC and then the NFC is just like the Eagles, the lions got worse. The Niners are, I have a really easy easy schedule but aren't that good of a team like there's like way more uncertainty. So I think there's a ton of value in the NFC of like, like long shots or just like a random team coming out of nowhere to like make a run to the NFC championship. I don't think would be that surprising.

Yeah, there's a team that I think is really good in the playoffs last year almost beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, and I think they're gonna be They're gonna be really good again. So we'll get there. We'll start next week with our NFC so yeah, I appreciate everyone hanging out with us for four comm Slash plans to get the betting subs where you want to be move line or you listen to podcast four for four bets on the YouTube channel. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. Connor and I will be back again next week with the start of our NFC preview. So appreciate everyone hanging out with us for Connor. I'm Ryan. We just did the whole show with me as Connor Allen and you as Ryan Noonan, by the way. I didn't even notice that. That's crazy.

I love that for us. That's great. See you next time. Thanks, everybody.