Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | AFC West Preview

Episode Date: July 17, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the AFC West in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the AFC West and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by four four four.com. Betting subscription at four four four is the only resource that you need to be profitable this NFL season and it is coming is closer than you think. Whether you're looking to win your fantasy league, best ball, Connor's got a basketball draft tonight on the channel has been drafting DraftKings best ball for quite a while here. I really just want to bet on any market, any sport, four four four.com is where you need to be this season. I am Ryan Noonan. Excited to continue our divisional preview series here today with the AFC West,

AFC North, AFC East already in the bag. Check that out. Wherever you list the podcast, move the line. Four four four bets on the YouTube channel. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a whole lot. This is our third division here. And I know you said you were up late watching the open. It's not a golf show, but I think that, I don't know, it's kind of interesting. It starts so late for us because it's obviously in Ireland, like you're saying, right? Yeah. If you were watching on YouTube and you're like, hey noon and looks super tired He didn't sleep. So that's probably part of it, you know, but this I like outside of like betting the NFL betting tackles sacks

Yeah, I love betting golf outrights, you know in our last major championship of the year the open championship in Ireland Yeah, and 1230 start, you know, midnight basically here in central time zone. So I was up, had a lot of guys going off early and I wanted to watch them. And again, it was only, this is the last one of the year. So this is kind of getting the doldrums, like golf really kind of tails off. They haven't mastered the playoff situation quite yet. So those are some decent events.

This is the last really, really, really good event of the season. So didn't want to miss anything, but yeah, here we are. So enough energy and enough coffee. Coffee is the friends to talk AFC West because I'm fired up about this division is a loaded, I think, kind of. I think there's a handful of like really competitive, at least the top heavy, you know, top three teams all in the playoffs last year, Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers, Raiders lacking behind a little bit. But again, like a lot of change there. They kind of they're fascinating to talk about.

But, you know, let's jump right into it again from a scheduling standpoint. They are playing the AFC South coming up next week. And, you know, again, pretty easy division. And then the NFC East. Again three playoff teams last year. Casey has won this division nine straight years. They're going for 10 in a row. They have the first team we will talk about here. 8 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Minus 115 to win the division again something they have done nine consecutive years. You can find that on FanDuel or Caesars. 15 wins last year. Win total this year is 11 and a half, slightly

juiced to the under. They are plus 475 to be the top seed in the AFC. You can lay 380 for them to make the playoffs. They are three to one not to make the playoffs. They struggled last year at times Connor, like they were below 500 against the spread. 12 and 0 in one score games, which is, I think we would say historically not sustainable. It's something we would expect to regress. Though the thing, the conversation gets really interesting when it is the Chiefs, when it is Patrick Mahomes,

when it is Andy Reid, this like just kind of ghost of a duo kind of very much in the model of what we had for 20 plus years in New England with Brady and Belichick. There's just some answers to the test that don't make sense because I just seem to outperform expectations or things that would normally regress. How do we bet the chiefs and what do you make of them this year? Yeah, it's really interesting because they obviously they get Rashid rice back. I don't expect for him to be suspended, but, uh, you know,

my homes took him out early in the season last year. It looked like he was on his way to having an amazing year. Uh, they, you know, expanded Xavier worthy's role Travis Kelsey still there. I think he's probably mostly a chain mover at this point But I think in the backfields interesting as well So, you know, obviously they they brought back as a paycheck already still there But he was basically benched for Kareem Hunt last year So they go out in the draft Breshard Smith from SMU later who is a really, really strong runner and also was a former receiver. So I think that we could see him in more of like a Jarek McKinnon plus role that we've seen from the past there. And then just from this team as a whole

favored in 16 games this year. But the only interesting part here I think is like the first chunk of the season is kind of sneaky tough for them. So they're favored in all of them, right? But at the Chargers in week one against the Eagles in week two, at the Giants in week three, which, you know, whatever, that's fine. But then against Baltimore at Jacksonville, who I think is going to be sneaky better, and then against Detroit. So like none of the, I mean, there are games that they're favored in. They're all favored in all of them, but they're close. Like these are tough teams that they're playing. These are going to be close games. So, I mean, would it surprise me for the chief to start like 500 and that if they're maybe not like rolling from week one, I think that's very possible,

honestly. So I don't know how exactly to bet that there's like the first five games category on DraftKings. They're like, I think plus one 90 some out of win three games, which is really disappointing because I was like three and two seemed very likely at that point. Um, so I don't know. I mean, that's kind of my take initially there. But interested to hear your thoughts. Yeah, the schedule, like you said at first is tough. The they do get that Chargers game in week one is like Brazil. And that's a Chargers home game. So that kind of works in the favor, though I don't know that that's like the Chargers don't necessarily have a huge home game so that kind of works in the favor though I don't know that that's like the chargers don't necessarily have a huge home field advantage historically maybe you know will continue to be a little bit better in LA than it had been uh you know over the years if they continue to get better

in ascend but uh I also do think that from the charger standpoint that's probably one of the better times to play the Chiefs like kind of early as they kind of figure out the shuffling along the offensive line you know what's going on in the receiver. I don't think it's a bad time to play the Chiefs versus, you know, later in the year when they start to find their mojo a little bit more like again, another New England comp like he was talking to Feinberg yesterday. Like that's, that's something that the Patriots used to always do. It's kind of a little bit early. You'd be like, Oh, what's going on with them? And they just like an extended preseason. You could see that with the Chiefs a little bit too. But yeah, the rest of the schedule, I mean, Buffalo week nine on the

road, that's a tough one again, part of their unique three. But that's after three straight home games. So it's not like they have a bunch of like travel in between there, they kind of catch them in a nice spot. And then that spot in Denver on the road that comes after their week 10 by and we know Andy Reid historically after a buy. So there's some of the tougher games to kind of have some schedule breaks. It is the toughest schedule in the division though. They're like the six most difficult schedule from a strength of schedule standpoint. Continuity though, pretty much everywhere. I think the offensive line shuffling could be interesting depending on like who wins out a left tackle depending on health and whatnot

Otherwise, we're like looking at 20 of 22 starters returning from last year And there's like a lot of depth in the secondary is a lot of depth defensively kind of at all the positions They did what they did last year without Rishi Rice Mostly if he comes in and kind of figures himself out I still don't think like I don't know where Hollywood Brown works in, but I don't know that he's necessarily like done being a contributor, right? They just don't necessarily need him to take a ton of snaps. But if they can start to make that room emerge without needing like massive stuff from Travis Kelsey, that could be interesting.

So I just, I don't know. I feel like 11 and a half is light. And again, it's slightly juiced to the under. It's not something that I'm like dying to bet a team to get to 12 or 13 wins. Because like you said, there's some definitely some, some potholes in here, but I just, I have no appetite for the under. That's for sure. You know, I see in the, in the AFC, like that's not my way to chase them either. It's just kind of like, I'm waiting to see pick my spots in season. Yeah. I mean, every, every year, every time that we think, hey, the division is getting tough,

well, actually, maybe the Chiefs will win. Maybe they will win. And then they just end up, you know, winning by like a couple of games. And I think this year, I mean, maybe it's different. I do really like all the other teams in this division relative to the market. But yeah, I it's a really tough, I would say, team to play too much here. The only other look that I thought was interesting, a guy in Isaiah Pacheco who, again, was like the clear starter two years ago, had nearly 1,000 yards in 14 games, and then comes in last year as the clear workhorse, gets injured, and then comes back and is like awful, just so, so bad. And so I think he's a really wide range

of outcomes this year. If he crushes, um, like that wouldn't be surprising. I think they're going to give him the chance to do the workhorse. And if he's fully healthy, I think he could crush, I mean, for him to get a thousand rushing yards is four to one right now. So like, I think that's well within his range of outcomes. If he's the guy he could also be benched, like with by week three or four and just be phased out. Like that's also very, very possible, but that's why I would say the four to one on a thousand yards is not bad.

Cause he is the guy like he'll be right around there. That's like, you know, without a doubt in my mind, I'll be right around there, but we'll see, uh, we'll see there. So I thought that was kind of a fun, like high upside look. Yeah. Where's he going in like best you'd have been doing more basketballs than me this season. Like eight rounds round seven days around. Um, feels late ish, but I don't know. Right. I mean, it depends. Like again, it fully depends on like what you think. Like he was so bad, like hit Pacheco unders were one of our favorite bets at the end of last year is cause like,

I mean he wasn't getting work and he was averaging like two yards of Gary. It was like, they basically shut him down at the end of the year. Like cream on, I think I like out carried him every game in the playoffs. Part of that I worry about, I wonder, is offensive line shifting, right? Because they had to shift Thune to tackle because they had some issues there. And then all of a sudden that impacted their run blocking in the interior. And they still didn't have great answers on the left side at all. We saw that in the Super Bowl, like, just again, Philly, unique beast, but they were

in the backfield all day, did not blitz a single time. So you could say that that's a blueprint, but that's also like, yeah, great. If you have like an absolute load of defense, perhaps not everyone can execute that plan. But I just worry about the night. There might be Pacheco pieces that are tied to the offensive line that could be thinking about as well, right? Coming off the injury and that too. So Josh Simmons, the first round pick that they took out of Ohio State, to see if he's healthy.

Jaylen Moore could fill in there too, he was kind of a swing guy for the Niners the last couple of years. So it could be an improved offensive line and that could help Pacheco as well. So definitely interesting to see. I'm excited to watch Jayden Hicks on the defensive side. They let Justin Reid walk at safety. Really weird move for the Saints, but we'll get there when we get to the Saints. Are you sitting out and kind of punting and resetting the clock or are you just going to spend a bunch of money and free agency on random, replaceable positions. But I think that Jayden Hicks is a dog. It'll be really exciting to

watch. He'll help their run defense from a strong safety standpoint and bringing Kristen Fulton you steal from the Chargers. That also the great thing there allows Trent McDuffie to go back to the slot where he was awesome. Neither before in the Super Bowl. So I think the defense is going to be really good again, you know Probably no not like a top five unit, but you know a top ten unit and there's depth there, too. So Yeah, I think I like the bills like there's a tough team to poke too many holes in like right like it's just there

The reason that they're favored like the Ravens like the bills like we talked about them already Like they're just an instant contender and yeah, I mean without like you said online shuffling Maybe the schedule and they win like 11 games instead of 15, you know Like that's pretty much what I'm looking at and then no one still wants to play him the playoffs, right? Alright next is the Chargers I middle the pack from a strength of schedule standpoint They are 28 to 1 to win the Super Bowl You can get them plus 310 on They are 28 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. You can get them plus 310 on FanDuel or DraftKings to win the West here.

Win total, nine and a half, slight juice to the under on FanDuel at minus 120. They are minus 124 to make the playoffs, plus 115 to miss the playoffs. I think even the most optimistic Chargers fans last year, I think yourself included, I think you were very much in on the Chargers having more of a ceiling year. But I think maybe last year was exceeded some expectations. Be sure to see what you think this season here. Start with three divisional games. Again, that Chiefs opener in Brazil.

What are your thoughts on the Chargers? Yeah, I think that they did a really good job of filling in some of the gaps that they had last year. So, you know, they go out, they draft Amari and Hampton in the first round, they signed Najee Harris. Like they, I think they kind of want, they wanted to run the ball, but you know, the duo of JK Dobbins and Gus Buss and whoever else they were tossing out there just wasn't doing it. I mean, like it was fine from Dobbins occasionally, but it really wasn't consistent. Uh, and so like now at this point, they replaced both of them.

And so they also drafted well, and they drafted Trey Harris, who can be like, kind of like a, you know, field stretching guy to open it up for Lad McConkey. I think QJ will probably still play a reasonable role. They keep trotting them out there, but I don't know. I mean, they did have Mike Williams, who I don't think does much of anything.

So yeah, I think probably gonna be QJ, Trey Harris, just anyone like besides lad, McConkey who can get open. Like that's what they need is guys can get open. And I think they did a good job of, you know, adding Harris there, um, who, you know, should give more room for the rest of the team. And then it's just like, I think last year the argument that I had was like, I think they have some upside, coaching matters a ton. Like the roster is not complete, but like, you know, their coaching should matter.

And I think that they could like grind their way to some wins. And then they started chucking the ball a little more. And I thought it was still, I mean, it looked good. Herbert is just, you know, he's a great player when he has some help. And McConkey, I think really, you know, stepped up there as like their number one, but not as like a, like an alpha, just like, you know, playing slot a lot would move outside, but it just could get open. So I think the roster awesome. I don't know. I just like, I think of an alpha, I think of like Nico Collins, you know, like, like, yeah, he doesn't have the prototypical alpha build. Yeah. But he is a dog. He is a dog. I definitely agree. I'm definitely on lad. Um, but I mean, like, you know,

I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think he's a dog. I think build. Yeah, yeah, but he is a dog. He is a dog I definitely agree. I'm definitely on lad, but I mean like do you think I think this roster is better than last year Like I mean, maybe they squeaked out a win, but I think they're better I don't know defensively if you have any thoughts there specifically too. I mean, I think like

Jesse Minter coached his face off last year. Like that was my concern when we were handicapping last year's I'm looking at the talent on the roster and I'm like, what are we doing here? They, I think back-to-back drafts have had, like they just have hit home runs. I mean, Vlad was part of last year's draft class second round. They got top quality starting level reps from two fifth round defensive backs. It's really hard to do. Kam Hart on the perimeter, who I liked coming out of Notre Dame, I was surprised he fell. I think he tested well,

but he's like a big bodied corner. And I think these guys can translate now to the alphas of the world. Like you need to have some of those guys in the perimeter. And to keep still in the slot was fantastic. Like a lot of advanced metrics. So he was like a top 10 corner last year. These are fifth round picks that like started

for them right away. So they added Dante Jackson from Pittsburgh to go on the other side of the outside of heart this year. They had injuries in some spots too, and it didn't really matter. Junior Colson, I thought was gonna be one of their best rookies last year, was hurt for the most of the year.

Diane Henley, like this is a great young linebacker group. They have some questions up front, but they have a lot of like mixing bodies from the defensive end standpoint that they can mix in. It's a above average defensive talent group if heart and still are, you know, actually those guys and I think the coaching is touched on it pretty much every episode. Like this is a spot where this league coaching separates in a different way than other sports.

And when you have the ability to scheme up things in a different way, like they did last year, a lot of the guys that they had starting or filling in the last couple of years are still in the roster too, which I think is really cool. Like they have depth behind if some guys go down. So, Mekhi Bekden along the offensive line is just another massive

run mauling human being. Um, so if you get something from Mario Hampton, if Najee Harris has both eyes, shout out to you. You've had that last week a little bit beforehand. I started digging after the show. I'm like, there might be something to this. Um, and yeah, I mean, look, they're going to be able to run the football, whether it's one-eyed Najee or two-eyed Amarion. Um, they think they could have some success. So yeah, I mean, look, they're going to be able to run the football, whether it's one-eyed, nausea or two-eyed, um, they're going to have some success. So yeah, they're going to be good. Yeah. I think that's, uh, yeah, we got a little lucky there. We're exploring that there's, there's still some Hampton alts up, but I think are interesting. So like right now, the report that came out was basically, Oh, his agent said it's a superficial injury. He's fine.

He'll be ready for the start of the season. Then he was placed on NFI list to start training camp, which means that he's going to miss to start a training camp. And like, I believe I'm sure he's, well, I'm not sure. I think he's probably fine, but there's been like very weird reporting about it. Like it's been kind of quiet. Like it seems uncertain.

Like we don't know. Like, I mean, is he, can he, he can probably see, but like what extent can he see? Does he need surgery? Like, is he going to need like some, something else or more time for his eyes to heal? Like we have no idea. They're just keeping us in the dark. And so I think Hampton alts to Jeff's point there are inch more interesting to me than like over under 800. So I think that like part of the theory of betting on Hampton in general is like, I, I envisioned Naji playing a

pretty big role in early downs, especially to start the season and then Hampton kind of taking over as he proves that he's better like inevitably. But now he's going to get reps with the ones from day one in training camp. He's going to get like a little bit more there. And I think if Naji like sits out at all for even a couple of weeks, like I think gives Hampton a pretty big edge because he's new to like, Naji is not like a returning vet. Like he's not just going to like snap and be back. Like he has to learn stuff too in this offense. So I think that Najee, I think Hampton could be in for like a massive season. So he's still like two to one at a

thousand and then like seven to one to have 1250 rushing yards. Now again, those are ceiling outcomes, but like, I mean, I don't know, there's a possibility just like is the guy like the one a pretty much from week one. Yes, I mean, 1250. That's a pretty good price. Missy, it's a lot of rushing yards, but the team that wants to run the football is going to have success running the footballs are great run blocking offensive line if they stay in it. And when you have questions in the tight end room, you have questions at secondary receiver. It's a team that does lend itself to more rushing. And I think you see more rushing from Justin Herbert too, right?

He was dealing with that foot injury in camp last year, started to get better. And then I thought we saw a little bit more rushing for him later in the season. Not enough in the playoff game when I bet is over. He's decided to like double his interceptions that he had thrown for the entire season in that weird playoff game. But yeah, I mean, I think I what's stopping them from like, going to get a Mari Cooper, or Keenan Allen, who's would probably love to come home like, I don't know, I just feel like there's QJ's got a lot of questions. He sucks. He's terrible. So you know, the first one I'm thinking 2023. Yeah, that's the problem, right? Like it's sunk cost fallacy. You don't want to necessarily, you know, but I think we know what Mike Williams is at this point. Yeah, he's a worst version of QJ who's thought we thought he was Mike Williams, right?

Like, I don't know. I just feels like this is why LAD is so important. Like LAD for this team is as almost you can make the case that LAD in terms of non-quarterbacks on the offensive side of the football for any team in the league, LAD is probably as valuable to the Chargers as anyone is to any other team. Just crazy to say for sure. But like he, he pulled him out of this team and it is rough to move the football. Yeah. Like especially chain moving plays. Like, I mean,

they did add Tyler Conklin, which is nice. Like that's a good piece. I remember that there was some stone smart games last year. Like lad was dinged up and I think it was like stone smart was just hoovering targets. Yeah. They like, there was a ton of design plays at QJ last year. Like Lad was dinged up and I think it was like stone smart was just hoovering targets. Yeah, they like there was a ton of design plays at QJ last year. He just dropped them. Like you would just like it would just there was games with multiple drops in a single game, but they kept designing plays for him because they had no one else. Like you can't design all pass attempts to Lad. Like it's just not going to work. So yeah, I think that's a good point. Like I guess the floor is pretty low in the passing game if lad were to get injured,

but she did not necessarily had a clean bill of health as entire collegiate and NFL career. So, yeah. I mean apparently like a Ronday Gadsden was a nice little, uh, you know, camp showing in tight ends, but we're, you know, what are we talking about fifth round tight end? Like, you know, it's shouldn't have really high expectations for, but they might need something outside of lad. So those, I don't know, like why I'm already still out there.

Like we're, we're on the other side of the window of comp picks, right? So like, you don't give up anything comp pick wise, um, you know, by signing him at this point, I don't know. He's not, was he, he's probably 30. He's not that old. I mean, I don't know. He had to, was he, he's probably 30. He's not that old. I mean, I don't know. He had to deal with Deshaun Watson last year. Like I don't want to make drastic like Amari Cooper's washed. It didn't look great when he got to Buffalo, but I don't know.

Yeah. I mean, the only, I mean, the only counter or like just thought I have there is a Joe Brady just said he's like cook basically. That's like, you know, the local rumor mill. I mean, which, I mean, not every team should listen to Joe Brady. Like I'm sure he would be fine or better than, you know, QJ. Like, I mean, how, what's like, how much worse than Mike Williams was going to get on the fields? Yeah, no way. Yeah. No way. We're keen in, bring Keenan home. I don't know. Mike Williams under his last year were just all time because he would play 80% of the snaps and he would take like under one and a half receptions and Rogers would never throw to

him because he was so bad. He threw it in one time at the end of one of the like last games and he threw a pick because Mike Williams ran the wrong route and like didn't come back soon enough. It was so good. It was like just incredible to bet on shitty players like that. Yeah. So that's my issue with betting on the Chargers. I think that they, it's a playoff team again, as we sit here in middle July and everyone's healthy and we kind of know what to expect, assuming they can get Trey Harris in camp and signs with these sec, these second round picks that aren't signing. We need to have a clear understanding of what's going on with, with Najee,

but it's tough to bet on them because I feel like it's the range of outcomes actually becomes pretty vast. There's something that would happen a lot like he's almost irrationally important to what their team is. So but I'm not against them too, because I think we can still see a sentry from Justin Herbert. So all right, Denver, middle of the pack strength is schedule wise. They are between 27 and 30 to win the Super Bowl. There is a rogue 40 on MGM. Again, I know it's tough for

people to get down, but if you can, you want to sprinkle a little bit of Denver MGM would be the place to do it. Plus 360 to win the division here on Caesars. Similar to the Chargers win total nine and a half slightly juice to the

under over on Fandl is plus 110 They are basically even odds seizures minus 110 to make the playoffs minus 110 to miss It's a fascinating team Connor Your team I'm not sure how much that's still the case, but you know here we are It might be not a bad time to jump back on the Broncos. What are your thoughts here? Yeah, I just don't I don't care enough at this at this point about the Broncos or you know again I got a DT jersey for those on YouTube behind me and you know our RIP uh was a big fan back in the

back in the day but at this point um just don't care enough about fandom anymore um but I love what I think this roster is sick I mean I'll let you talk about the defense because it is a sick, sick unit. But even the offense like the line projects to be really good. They couldn't run there another team like the Chargers couldn't run the ball at all last year. They like, and wanting Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audra Gassner was a healthy scratch. They had Tyler Bidae look like he was going to be their top runner and then broke his back like after a week.

So now that you add in R.J. Harvey, you draft him the second round, super explosive runner. And then they signed J.K. Domins too. I think like this can be like, J.K. can play a little bit, you know, maybe in some goal line stuff, play some early downs and be fine. And then R.J. Harvey can be, you know, pass catching plus, and then like just, and maybe even more, maybe even take on the entire role down the stretch if he's playing well. And then they draft Pat Bryant right after RJ Harvey, who was really good at University of Illinois.

It was big fan of him as kind of a big bodied guy. Sean Payton compared him to Michael Thomas. Now again, that's like a lofty comp right away, but I mean, if the coach is saying it right off the press, or like, you got to take some notes there. Um, so I think that's, I think, and then the house that Evan Ingram too. So like, they, they upgraded everywhere that they needed to, and they knew they needed to, and Bo Nix played so much better than I think we could,

any of us could have thought given especially what was surrounding him, like talk about Caleb Williams at all the best weapons, you know, Jane Daniels like didn't have like fine weapons and then Drake may had nothing. And like I, Bo Nix didn't have a fine weapons and then Drake may had nothing and like I both didn't have a lot either. You know, he just had Sean Payton and yeah, you know, Coraline Sutton. That's like that's it. Everything else was terrible. So I'm excited about like this offense.

I think this could be maybe not like high scoring, but just probably pretty efficient. Just like on a down to a basis, they should be significantly better than they were last year when they were like, I think 16th in EPA, 18th success rate. So I think fringe top 10 is a good like little leap for them. And what stops that like wide receiver room from getting better? They're all young too, right outside of Cortland Sutton, who's been around for a little bit, but like, DeVon Vailay, Mims, Brian, as you mentioned, like, it's Troy Franklin. Just a bunch of dudes. I don't know. I don't know if they're like any of them or can step in to be like a legit wide receiver too. But Evan Ingram helps too, because they got, like you said, no production from

the tight end room, just like they got really no production from the running back room other than like using them for screen passes and stuff. It was it's really kind of fascinating. They same thing defensively when I'm looking at it. I went in trying to research to find like, okay, defense year over year, not very sticky. You know, you'll see some good teams and they'll remain good. But like if they have these sort of outlier years, like things are going to regress and I think we can look at like turnover rates, third down conversion, opponent red zone, like different things like that kind of feel to me like the best place to start for like

regression. They were just kind of like, they almost underperformed in some of those. Like I don't feel like there's like glaring, oh, they did that. They were so far above everyone else. And there's no way that that's really sticky. Like they got a ton of pressure. They had a high sack rate. That could regress. Sacks are, you know, they regress year over

year at times. And they were third in EPA, both against the run and the pass. Yeah, they had a high sack rate, but they were second in pressure rate. So like, I don't know, like, they were in the backfield all the time. They got a bunch of dogs. Linebacker room was really the only weakness. Alex Singleton went down in September. He's back. And then they've added starters in three spots.

First round pick. Joday Baron is like a home run pick for what they want to do and what his skillset is because this guy played like safety. He played a little bit of like little like hybrid linebacker role. And you can blitz him from, uh, from like the nickel from the slot. He's fantastic You don't have to worry about putting him on the perimeter because the two really good perimeter cornerbacks are including the defensive player of the year Um, and then signed two 49ers, uh, you know, the linebacker room is not going to be a question anymore um drake green law and then

Uh talan of huffunga from uh from the Niners who started the, he was my first tackle bat. He was the, you know, the impetus of it all. So I don't know, like if they stay healthy, they were healthy last year, really except Singleton for the most part. They stay healthy again. Like it just doesn't feel like a team that's going to necessarily regress a ton. Like maybe it's not the best or top three or like one

of the lowest scoring, you know, defenses. Actually, the charge was allowed the fewest points in the league last year, defensively. So I don't know, I just feel like it's a great team. If they stay healthy, I'd imagine they're a top five unit again. So they're good enough to win a bunch of football games. So this feels like a playoff team to me at minus 110 to make the playoffs. I don't know what the best way to do it is. You know, at this point should probably take plus one 10 over nine and a half wins. It's just tricky in the AFC because all these, you know, there's so many good teams, but like this is one of those teams. This is one of those teams that when I'm trying to think of other teams to make the playoffs, like, well, where's Denver going? I don't feel like they're not a playoff team anymore. So

I like plus one 10 to make the playoffs or over nine and a half wins. Yeah. I kind of agree. I mean, you're looking at the last two years, Sean Payton comes in, goes eight and nine with the team. We didn't think it was very good. And then 20, 24, 10, and seven with the team with a ton of question marks, you make the team, I would say a good bit better on both sides of the ball. Um, and now you're in a spot where, like, I think, again, he's another coach, like player, your talent, maximizer in coaching. So, um, And they have some really nice like, you know scheduling bits like just throughout the season

They get the the Jets and the Giants and back-to-back weeks one one time, you know That's a nice little little bit there and they're gonna beat some teams that they probably shouldn't they're gonna beat the Chargers They're gonna beat the Chiefs prop maybe once like I think that's very very possible And then you know again, they, they're home against Cincinnati, they're two and a half point favorites, like they strike me as the team that could beat Cincinnati by a lot just because of how bad Cincinnati's defense is

and how good their defense is. Like I'm sure that Cincinnati lays a big one on them, they can keep up, like that's fine. But like they can also ground and pound and just like run the absolute piss out of the ball and just sit on it. Like I think that's gonna be very possible for them in some games this year because

They upgraded their out there, you know running back room and their defense is so good Like they just don't have to they ran it a bunch last year and they like didn't even have to just because they like You know, they couldn't run the ball, but they did it anyways That little stretch there because you know, we start Tennessee at Indy But then they go to the Chargers and then they have that Monday night or against the Bengals. That's a nice little interesting stretch. There's a real shot that they go to Philly in week five, four and oh. On the other side of that is that Jets, Giants, Cowboys stretch that you're talking about. So I mean, this is a nice little start for them to build some momentum, build some confidence.

Again, you wanna find ways for this team to regress, but I think there are so many ways that they could actually ascend, especially when you're talking about the offensive group and the pass catchers and the running back room. And again, continuity along the offensive line is massive. Those guys all stay healthy again, hard to do, but you're talking about a team that's

going to be in the mix, right? There might not be an exciting ceiling for a bone X, but I don't know. He just. Yeah, I there's some some fun. I think ways to play some of these like Broncos stuff here. So first off, I think unders early in this season

are really interesting, so we're getting a total of 42 against Tennessee and 45 at Indy. That seems like a lot of points, unless the Broncos are just laying it on them. I just don't envision that being the case. I think that Sean Payton is gonna kind of chill and the Colts I don't expect to be all that good. I don't know, I mean, the Titans,

we don't really, we have no idea. It's just gonna be, if Cam Ward's good, I mean, they could be this year's commanders for all I know, you know, that would not be that surprising. Kim Ward's first start on the road in Denver. We know Denver historically in September. That's a tough, that's a tough spot.

Right. So like, yeah, I mean, but still 42, like I would have thought 40 for Indy and I would have thought 41, maybe 40 like max. So I think there's some, some value there in the unders and then player prop wise. Uh, RJ Harvey to lead the AFC West in rushing is eight to one. I think that's interesting. It's basically just Ashen Gentie. Obviously that's a big barrier to overcome because we'll get there in a second. But eight to one for a team that I think will run the ball plenty is not bad.

And then Evan Ingram to have eight receiving touchdowns is plus 850. That doesn't really seem like eight touchdowns as a whole lot considering and they have court into the Coraline sudden, obviously, but like, I would assume Ingram will be the other red zone target for the most part. So I don't know. Eight plus eight 50. I thought it was kind of interesting. Yeah, that's a good look. Yeah. I mean, a lots of possible negative correlation plays here is Jeff highlights in the chat. I mean, a week to week.

It's just some, you know, lid lid taker offers basically right with the men's Franklin and maybe you'll Bryant could possibly be that guy too. Or you just could have some explosives and you know, not a lot of volume because they are going to have a lot of mouse to feed. They're probably you know, they're really tough team to kind of hone in on. Like there's a lot of good Devon Vailay stuff coming out of Denver during camp. Like what happened? It's just, there's a lot of dudes. It's a good team. Yeah. Plus one 10 over nine and a half wins. I think they're, I think they're legit. So our next Raiders, uh, again, middle of the pack 18th in strength,

the schedule, they are 120 and one to one to win the Super Bowl, 20 to 1 to win the West. A win total is kind of all over the map. Kind of middle of the pack, six and a half juice to the over, some seven and a half to the under. Yeah, you shop around. They are plus 330 to make the playoffs, minus 375 to miss the playoffs. Pete Carroll in as head coach, Chip Kelly, along as the O.C., Patrick Graham, defensive coordinator, stays here. But a lot of new faces on the field as well. Obviously, Gino, you mentioned Ashton Genti. I think we're going to see them trying to lean on him as much as possible early in the game when they can. What happens when they can't is going to be a very fascinating discussion here. What are your thoughts on the Raiders, Connor?

Yeah, obviously the the additions there offensively are massive. I think the the coaching changes are just like could not be more significant we talked about it when the you know when the Chargers added Harbaugh recently and I think this is kind of a similar vibe for me is like They have some plenty of pieces. They have some holes too Like they're not like necessarily an awesome team, but the defense, you know, the pass rush should be good. They have some interesting pieces defensively, offensively too, like just Gino and Brock Bowers

is like fine. Like that can probably, you know, carry the office to some extent. Then you add in Jacobi Myers, they drafted Jack Besh as well. And you have like a dominant, potentially dominant running game with Ash and Gentie and Raheem Moser to play, Regine Moser to play some mop up duty

if needed. And so I think that they're set up really well to play some good Pete Carroll football. Now I'm interested to see what Chip Kelly does. Because in the NFL, historically, he was super fast, came from Oregon initially, and was doing basically a whole new way of offense. Now at Ohio State recently, he was the exact opposite when really run

heavy with Trevion Henderson and with Quincy on Judkins. And we're like, was played slow, like was like almost more what I think that they're going to play like here with the Raiders is like, it's I don't think that they're going to maybe they play a little bit faster, but like, I don't think we're going to see anything close to what we saw from like you know the Eagles Chip Kelly Eagles and like Chip Kelly Oregon days I think it's been much more like the Ohio State days you know under center a lot of heavy power running like and then some passing but I think they're just gonna try and keep the game close and then let try and let their defense cook a little bit and go there over five and a half is one of my favorite early bets originally now we're up to six and a half and minus 145. I don't know if I can get there.

I think that their range of wins is probably six to eight, six to nine if things go really well. But yeah, I just I can't really get there. They're underdogs. They're favored in four games this year. But seven of the games that they're underdogs in or within a three point spread. So like there are plenty of winnable games, but like we don't, we have no idea. Like the markets are basically telling us that like 11 games are toss ups this year for the Raiders. It's a tough team to figure out. Um, I don't, I don't know. I mean, I think we're going to see one thing I feel most confident in is, is Ash and Gentie is going to get as much work as he could possibly handle. Right. Like I think the combination of Pete Carroll and how we knew he wanted to play in Seattle, especially late, especially when he had really strong running backs. Chip Kelly, even playing fast, loved to run the football. I would push back. Chip Kelly started, it's UNH Chip Kelly. You know, we need to give University of New Hampshire Wildcats their flowers. Yeah, that's what he went to Oregon, you know. But yeah, I mean, this defense Connor, I don't know, first of all, it might be the first worst

wide receiver room in the league. It might not matter to your point. I agree. I think we're gonna see a lot of 12 personnel and you know, whatever you get from Brock Bowers kind of flattens that. But like you're talking about your Trey Tucker taking on a lot of 12 personnel and you know, whatever you get from Brock Bowers kind of flattens that but like You're talking about your Trey Tucker taking on a pretty good role or you know, Jack Betch and then this you know They're like Dante Thornton. I guess it's had a nice little camp to big-bodied fast receiver We'll see what happens with that unit. But This secondary. I mean, there's a couple others That we'll get to in some of the teams we haven't got to yet.

This is in the team picture in terms of worst secondaries in the league. So it's just really hard in a division where the quarterbacks like to throw the football and they're going to be able to throw the football. It's going to be really hard. So I don't know if it's going to be like an over team. If they end up playing fast or their Gino makes them efficient and Gino can continue to survive under pressure because it's offensive line. I still have some concerns about the good part defensively is the front four, I guess, but even not like Christian Wilkins, like someone got married in the Raiders like the last month or so. And Christian Wilkins was there in a walking boot, which isn't great.

Um, cause he had like like a it was Liz Frank, he had a foot injury in like November, missed a bunch of time, but he's still in a boot. I don't know if it was just like the terrain or what was going on that weekend, anyone to be cautious, but that's not great. They really, really need him. Because they can get a lot of I think they got a nice pass rush. They have depth there. But it's a questionable linebacker room and the cornerback room. I mean, Eric Stokes is starting on the perimeter. Eric Stokes cannot stay healthy at all in Green Bay. So other guys are going to have to play the Dante Porter third round pick from Iowa State right now starting on the outside. Another big bodied interesting corner is a prospect like you're in right now dude like go get it like you're you're gonna

Have to get it done right away against you know my homes Herbert I mean, you know all the dudes from Denver, so I don't know it's it's There's a bottom here defensively that is really challenging where if there is offensive efficiency It could be an in season over team if we could start to see hey the offense is good because of Gino and Ashwin genti is awesome and Brock is the dude, but I don't, I don't see how they, they stop anybody, especially early. I have real concerns with this defense. Yeah.

I think that they're going to be one of those teams. We talk about it a lot that they like try and run the ball and if the game is close, they can keep running the ball, but usually it's not going to be close because like part of their defense gets burned and then they have to throw the ball a bunch. And then it's just like, you like, it's really tough to stay centered to what they want their team identity to be. And so, yeah, I think that that's probably the most likely case here.

It is notable, you mentioned Dante Thornton, early reports of that, he was playing over Jack Besh so far. So I did play, one of my season-long crops was Jack Besh, under, I think it was like 575 at the time, I think 550 is probably still fine. Like I mean he's at best like the third option ever in this offense. Like I can't imagine him eclipsing both either Bowers or Myers.

And I think he's probably closer to like target share with like yeah, Thornton maybe even Ashton Gentry sees a decent target share. That wouldn't be surprising. So like yeah, he's I just don't think he's gonna see very many targets, to be honest, unless he like has an awesome end of the year breakout. So I think he's under probably still pretty interesting. You know, I would say most most prices right now. Yeah, it was a good play. I mean, at New England to start, and then Chargers, commanders, Bears, you know, like that's kind of a tough stretch and teams that could throw the football and really challenge their young guys early.

Obviously, we still have concerns and questions about New England's receiver room and whatnot. But I mean, I think Drake may can challenge them for sure. And again, it's in New England. So, yeah, I have concerns about the Raiders. So I think your five and a half was fine. I would not want to chase six and a half here at all. I'm just not that optimistic. And right now when you sit, you got to feel pretty good about your roster heading into the season and things can happen when guys get hurt. When you have real concerns and real noticeable holes and the season hasn't started yet, again, guys can get better

and rookies can outperform expectations. So it's like, it's not like we know everything. Some of these dudes could have been grinding a new coach. Like again, it's not a new coaching staff. Defensively, it's not the same unit, same coaching group. But like, it's not a good secondary. So real, real concerns with them being able to be competitive again in the division

and slowing teams down that can really throw football against them. So I like to jack bash under though, too. That's a good look Yeah, it's kind of the way anyway Yeah season long unders forever. Um, I mean i'm not it's not a fun bet You know most of the other teams I had like kind of some fun alts Uh, I don't I don't know if I have any fun alts here I just like if they were better I would probably play some genti alts. Cause I think you'd like, you said, like he's going to see a ton of work. Um, powers. I mean, his,

he's just like already priced in basically. So yeah, I mean like, I guess like the real sicko bats will be like week one, like Dante Thornton overs maybe if they're priced at like the 20s, something like that, you know, like that's like, that's where my mind goes at least probably value wise. Yeah. There was some, uher over receptions under yards. So uncorrelated garbage like that that we can get into. Yeah.

Again, I would not be surprised if we see three of playoff teams again. That would be, again, we know how unpredictable these divisions are year to year. And again, some of these things feel real obvious when you're previewing them in July, but be real surprised that the Chiefs are not a playoff team. And then again, I think what we saw last year from both Denver and the Chargers, I think can be repeated or even ascended to a different level and really take a step up.

So yeah, it feels like we could be in a similar spot to what we had last year. So all right. Anything else you got for the folks at AFC West? No, my prediction will be Chiefs Broncos Chargers Raiders. That'll be my order prediction. I would say the same. Yeah. I would not be surprised if the Chargers were better, but again, it's a loud piece, right? And someone needs to step up so that we feel better about But again, it's, it's a loud piece, right? And, and someone needs to step up so that we feel better about QJ or whatever's going to going on here. So, all right.

Appreciate everyone hanging out with us again, move line wherever you listen to podcasts for four bets on YouTube channel. Don't forget four four.com slash plans, betting subscription gets you all the things that we're going to do this season. Again, if you're still, that covers like fantasy, best ball, anything you're doing IDP if that's your thing you get that as well for four bats dot com get the betting subscription get into the score get all the official plays we appreciate everyone hanging out with us. I hit the like subscribe before you take off come back next week.

AFC South will start to parse through some of these pro Titans anti Colts nuggets maybe pro Jacksonville, like these little things that Connor has been like, you know, sprinkling in here over the last couple of episodes that I'm picking on how I feel like he's going to be talking about that division. So we'll do that next week. Thanks for hanging out for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time. Thanks, everybody.