Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | NFC East Preview

Episode Date: August 8, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the NFC East in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the NFC East and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to move a line, presented by 444.com. Betting subscription at 4-4-4 is the only resource you need for a profitable NFL season. If you're looking to play fantasy, best ball, bet on any sport or market, we're excited to share some stuff with you today. 4-44.com is where you need to be this season. Ryan Noonan, excited to continue here. NFC East today, my friend. Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? You know, it's much fun division today.

You know, I think that there's a lot of different ways that this can go. And I think there's, you know, one clear team at the bottom here and a couple of teams that I think, I don't know, could be in the mix. And I'm interested to break it down because I think we might have some different opinions on each team. Absolutely, yeah. One couple of things of note at the top. First, we are, again, move the line, available wherever you listen to podcasts. Available also on the YouTube's. We are moving off of the 4-4 Betts YouTube channel.

are just kind of putting everything four for four related together at four for four on youtube four for four live is the new youtube channel so this channel we're going back to the four for four live so find that subscribe you'll be able to you know we'll have different tabs and different stuff so if you want to just find our betting stuff we'll have even more betting stuff this season uh but again that'll be four for four live on youtube again more live content uh and more sharing of really cool tools one of which we released this week which we've been really excited about for a while. We've been testing in the back end.

I feel really, really good about it and feel like it's going to be a great additive to the 4-4-bending subscription in your process this season with Sharpstack. Connor, do you want to put that up here and talk to the people a little bit about what to expect? And I don't know, it's awesome. Like, I'm betting WMBA props and baseball props. And I have no idea what these people are and winning money. Yeah, and for those who can see the screen, great screen sharing on YouTube. if not you listen to a podcast form, I'll try and, you know, narrate kind of what we're seeing

here real quick. So basically we launched a new suite of tools over 4-4 called Sharpstack, including a plus EV betting tool. So essentially leveraging sharp markets against weak markets and, you know, being able to exploit that in the market. So we have our own algorithms and you can, you know, sort by league, category, bet type. And then you can also have your own custom settings where you can put your bank roll in and as well as set a minimum expected value percentage.

So there's a lot of everythings you do with the V tool. We also have our own, you know, bet tracker as well. So when you, you know, click a bet, you can track it and it'll go to your bet tracker, which will track CLV, as well as one-click bet betting right here. So you can click this and it'll automatically import it in your slips for a lot of different books. We also have a standard arbitrage tool as well, one where you can adjust the stake. If you're limited on one book, so say you can only get down 100 bucks on, on Novig, but there's, you know, you can get down a decent amount of liquidity on another book.

You can adjust both those and it'll automatically sync as well as pin those bets at the top. We have an odd screen, prop screen. But yeah, definitely check it out. It's free for the next like week and a half or so. All you have to do is sign up with any 4-4 account. You don't need a subscription. You just need to sign up for an account. Then you get access to.

So definitely recommend checking it out. For NFL season, I mean, it's going to be like NFL NBA, college football. It's going to be bumping. It's going to be great. Yeah, I can't wait. I mean, like I said, depending on sports, I don't typically follow that much, but once it starts to get dialed into NFL

and different props and different markets like that, I'm really excited. And again, the odd screen, prop screen, all that's there, basic calculators. It's there for the pickum folks as well. If you happen to be in a state, you know, obviously we have some of these other markets of these Novvigs and profit X that have popped up,

but, you know, say draft kings, Fandul, all those things aren't available to you. You know, pick six, underdog, prize picks. They're all in there for you as well. The algorithm is pretty exciting. So I cannot wait to let it loose on the football side of things for sure. So lots of different uses that Connor and I are going to be doing a lot more screen shares and talking through it week in and week out, maybe daily.

We'll figure out whatever that looks like as we get into the season. But yeah, we're excited. So take advantage. It is free right now. So like Connor said, if you have a four for subscription, cool. You'll see it at the very top. You can see here between the betting and the deals tab on the top is Sharpstack. It will open up the EV tool.

You don't even need to have a paid subscription right now to take advantage. You just need a free account on 4-4-4. So take advantage of that now. Really, really excited to share this for you. You can just get your mind right. Football is coming. We are, what, 27 days away from opening kick on that Thursday night or so it's close. It is coming.

So, yeah, and again, it's not just the EV tool. The bet tracker piece is really nice, getting an understanding in one spot to be able to click bet and takes you right there, track your own CLV, you know, when you're getting in good, lots of different ways to take advantage to all track up there on the top for you. There's a little settings tab. If you want, you can manipulate your own stuff and your bankroll. It's great, great, great, great resource. You can tell you, like, how much to stake in a bet based off what your bank roll is, based on the EV.

Like, it is setting you up for success to make it as easy as possible for you to understand, you know based off of what my bank role is how much should I stake right so all right up for it any questions reach out to us individually or on twitter at 4-4-4-bets and again remember four-for-bets on youtube is going away take advantage sign up subscribe 4-4 live on youtube all right buddy let's move on to our preview time it is like I said the nfc east a couple of playoff teams actually the two teams they met in the nfc championship game. From a scheduling standpoint, the NFC East is playing in the NFC North and the

AFC West this year. Very difficult set of schedules for this division as it shakes out. Pretty much everyone has a harder than standard average strength of schedule, some more difficult than others, some insanely difficult, which is really fascinating to get to. But we'll start with your defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Fourth most difficult schedule based on preseason win totals. are plus 750 to win the Super Bowl. You can get them at plus 370 to win the NFC.

They are minus 130 on draft kings to win the division. Win total 11 and a half, slightly juiced to the under. They're also available at plus 360 to be the number one seat again in the NFC. This is another year in Philadelphia and another play caller. This is six straight seasons of him having a new play caller at the top. We're staying in-house with Kevin Petulow's. been in different roles with Philadelphia for a little while. Jalen Hertz saying all the right things.

They seem to be kind of dialed in. There seems to be some natural regression we would expect from a defending Super Bowl champ, Connor, just in terms of how things kind of go. But I think, you know, this team could be not quite as good as last year's version, but still elite and still probably the right for favor in the division and maybe in the NFC. Yeah, it's tough to poke too many holes here, kind of like, I think in a similar vein to some of the other teams we talked about here because specifically their defense, you

We saw them make some changes in the secondary last year. They ran into like a really easy stretch of schedule. But their defense was like elite. Obviously proved it in the Super Bowl more than proved it. They were, you know, lockdown unit. And they, I mean, they ran everything back. You know, I think added, you know, one guy there exactly. But I think it was like literally, it said they basically have everything running back there defensively.

And then offensively, you know, offensive lines ranked number one, basically across the board. Wide receiving group is pretty elite with AJ Brown, Devont to Smith, if either one of those guys gets injured, the other can easily step up. up and be, you know, the number one. Dallas Goddard's, you know, return is healthy. Saquan Barkley, I mean, had 400 plus touches last year, but like, you know, they added Will Shipley. They still have him. Like, it's, I think they're just, it's tough to say, oh, this Eagles team is going to take a step back. The only thing that I would say is, you know, they're favored in 15 to 17 games, but they play a really tough schedule. Like before they're by, they play five playoff teams from

last year. And then Dallas, who I think could be pretty decent, or at least competitive in some games. and then two games against the Giants. So it's like a lot of their games are going to be really tough before they're by. And what I'm most interested to see, because we didn't really see it a whole lot last year. They had one of the lowest second half pass rates is like if teams get up on them for one reason or another, how can the Eagles respond? Because we just didn't really see it much last year. It's like can they pass their way into a game or like are they only set up kind of like what we saw, I mean, had seen from the Ravens for a long time of like they run. If things go according to script, they're like an elite team.

if things go off script and they fall behind or they have a kick return or a random fumble six something like that like do they can they play from behind and that's my only real question to be honest with this team but maybe you have other stuff that you're thinking about as well here yeah i mean they're front runners last year right doesn't mean that they it's not a bad thing you you've earned it you get to a spot where you're up in the second half by double digits all the time because you're playing some really good football but it means like nail biter situations where games are a little bit tight and again i want to have like jalen hertz discourse again i mean he just won the super bowl um but again his the expectations of what he needed to do to get them there

especially in the second half of games and tight games wasn't something that we saw very often down the stretch so if that's something that happens this year they don't really run maybe it's hot from an injury luck standpoint and maybe a little bit more burden falls on him to elevate and get it done for them i don't know i'll say questions but like i don't feel like that the answer to that test was something that we got through last year's super bowl run to be fair so i think there are some concerns and questions there there is some turnover defensively right they didn't these aren't new bodies to the team just some of the depth that they've been able to add in the draft over the last couple years those guys now need to step up and be starters so they're not new to the program

per se um but there are some holes that needed to be filled like darius sleigh is in Pittsburgh now, you know, Milton Williams signed with New England. So they have some of these guys that, you know, Keeley Ringo and Cindy Brown, Jalick's Hunt, Moro, Osje, Moore, the guys that like stepped up a little bit and like some swing roles for them last year, now need to be the guy. And I think those are fair questions to see, especially in the perimeter, if those can get answered. So again, they still did a good job drafting depth and some new guys that are kind of

backfill. Like I think Jahad Campbell can play multiple roles for them, their first round pick. The Kobe Dean's out to start the year. He could play traditional offball linebacker. You know, he was like the number one high school edge rusher heading into Alabama. And Alabama used him there a little bit before transitioning to offball. So like he can kind of play a swing role for them. So they have some pieces that I need to see.

Like is Keely Ringo a dude? Is Eli Rick's a guy that can like just play, you know, 90% of snaps and kind of be locked down for an elite defense? They have questions at safety. So like there's enough bodies to answer the test. they just have to figure out who those guys are going to be still. So some questions, but again, I still think it's a elite, you know, top half unit for sure. Yeah, we have Adam saying here as well, can't wait to bet some Jalen Hurts any time touchdown score. Yeah, I mean, Tush Push was not banned in the off season.

I think that's, you know, like, I kind of think that that's pretty wild that it was even like thought about being banned in the first place. I will say, I mean, I was on the frustrating other side of some props where, you know, the Eagles milked like 11 minutes off of a And, like, obviously, the team's never going to run the ball again, you know, if they're behind, et cetera, et cetera. But, like, it's only really the Eagles that are this effective with it. Like, I feel like banning something because one team is really good at it. It's kind of ridiculous. But, I mean, like, I understand they were absolutely dominant with it.

It's still just, like, be better. I don't know. Like, it's find another way around it. Find a way to beat it. Like, get bigger guys up front. I mean, the chief said Chris Jones lining up sideways, I'm pretty sure, like, at some point. and like it kind of helped but like it didn't fully nuke it but just like you got to be more creative I guess figure it out strategy you know or try it yourself

like implement it for your own team and take advantage of it right it's not like it's this rule or like they're the only team that can execute it like you know people were worried like oh it's Jason Kelsey at center like can they push push without him like yep they can they can do that and you could too if you decided you wanted to you know implement that in your offense so it is a weapon I mean the fact they more so than a lot of lot of other teams are threat for four downs right like if they get to fourth and short on neutral to positive field position like that's a four down drive and put strain on the defense in a different way so it's definitely a definitely a tool so yeah they're going to be good again man there's no doubt

about it the schedule is tougher like you said fourth most difficult schedule um they played a pretty difficult schedule last year in terms of like strength of the quarterbacks that they faced and they were still really good with the younger secondary, you know, I'm a huge Cooper Dejean fan and they played, you know, first half of the season without him. So, you know, all of a sudden you get him for a full season playing kind of a hybrid role, too. He's one of the guys that we don't know where he's going to be. Is he going to be in the slot again? Or they have questions at safety.

Is he going to play strong safety for them? Is he going to swing back and forth? Good problems to have. Good football players will be on the field, but definitely some questions with, you know, how they're going to, you know, what guys are going to be involved in what positions to get it done. So a lead football team, I don't know that I'm chasing the win total or really any, I'm not laying 130 to win any division, I don't think. But I feel like they're a strong favorite and probably win this division again, to be honest.

Yeah, they're a tough team to bet on, I think, in the futures market. Like, I think that there could be some really viable alts on Jalen Hertz passing whenever they're in like, I don't know, we're just going to have to find the right spots. Like if they're maybe we've, because the market's not going to be able to, even projections just are really tough to for a team like Jailen Hertz because the floor and the median is probably super low in terms of like volume because he's going to throw the ball 25 times a game most of the time. But the upside, if they unlock that or if they end up like falling behind is like 35 to 40 attempts from Jalen Hertz to Josh or to A.J. Brown and DeVant Smith and stuff is like, I mean,

nuclear upside, like insane upside. So the Alts market, I think is really interesting on a game to game basis, but I don't know about like, I mean, all the sake wants to have is factored in And, like, the future stuff, again, it's just like, it's all kind of thing baked in right now. Totally agree. All right, commanders, you know, easier, one of the relatively easier schedules in the division, the kind of middle of the pack from a strength of schedule standpoint, 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 10 to 1 to win the NFC. They can get them on Caesars plus 230 to win the division.

Win total 9 and a half, kind of flatten the juice side. They are a minus 132 to make the playoffs plus 122 to miss. they are 10 to 1 to be the number one seed in the NFC. There's a dream season. I think if you were maybe a fan of teams not in this division, it was very easy to root for the commanders last season for a number of different reasons, just kind of all the stink that's been on that franchise or Daniel Snyder in the last 20 years or so.

I was exciting to see them kind of flip the script there. They land the plane with Jane Daniels, who was, I think, exceeded the highest of expectations he was absolutely dynamic and a lot of fun to watch. I think making the playoffs felt like a win based off of any preseason expectations that they go and win two road playoff games. Extremely impressive. Tampa Bay kind of felt like they were playing really good ball. They win that game and they go to Detroit and just like deep pants them in the first quarter.

It was just like really bizarre right away. Not a knock on them. There's just a lot of factors that went in their direction last year. Schedule was very easy. they played a lot of backups and we all remember of like there's a handful of games that stick out just in terms of good luck variance when the Chicago game obviously jumps to mine they play the Giants early in the year where the Giants kicker got hurt in warmups they won by like a point and the Giants had to go for two all game they almost lost the Saints with a two point conversion late

there's a handful of games that just kind of like Jalen Hertz they beat the Eagles and Hertz got concussed in the first quarter so they won that game like there's just a handful of things They were insanely aggressive on fourth down, similar to the Eagles. They converted, I think it was like 87% of their fourth down attempts. I mean, that's awesome. That's not happening again. That feels like some sort of historic mark. Offense, I imagine it's going to be good if Terry McLaurin comes back,

Connor concerns about the defense. But who knows? You can see a quarterback in the second year, ascend even further. Yeah, I mean, the offensive line, too, is like, I mean, most people have them like the top 10 now it's like they're they're a good unit you know they added laramie tonsel uh and then obviously they have just like strong interior line play that's returning and then um added josh connerly probably a right tackle uh as well so like i mean they're in a really good spot take a massive support because that was like one of the biggest knocks last

year i think they were like projected to be a bottom five bottom 10 offensive line coming into the year and then now i mean they're projected to be like a top 10 unit i think it changes the dynamic a lot because they really, I mean, they had a running game, but it wasn't really robust, I would say. Brian Robinson is fine. Austin Eckler is fine. They drafted, you know, that kid, Jacori-Krosky-Marred, who's been, you know, making waves.

In training camp, I'm still a little skeptical how much he's actually going to play. But, you know, I think, you know, he's been flashing in training camp for sure. Signed Debo Samuel. And then, you know, you have Terry McLaurin who I don't really know what to make it. I think that amongst all the holdouts right now are like people like that, I think he has a lot of leverage because, again, you have Jane Daniels on a cheapish contract. Like, he's really the, he's one of one for their team. Like, Debo cannot do what Terry does.

And neither can anyone else on the commander's roster. So, like, they kind of need him. I mean, like, a passing game with just, like, Debo and Ertz and, like, I mean, that's, Jane Daniels A.D.D.A.D.D.A.D. is going to be, like, four. Like, it's going to be ridiculously low. So, like, they can't do that. And I think there's also, in terms about Debo. It was, like, super out of shape. I mean, he's pretty out of shape last year, showed up this year, kind of out of shape.

I think he'll be fine because in this offense, he can, like, function as, like, an underneath option. And, like, again, but you need that spacing that Terry provides. So I think he's a lot of leverage. I think they're going to get something done or they should get something done, maybe in, like, shorter contract. So I don't know, though. I did play some Debo under 725 and a half.

I think he might catch a lot of balls, but obviously wouldn't, and that's still up in Fandle. I wouldn't play that until Terry signs, to be clear. I think that that's you know I would wait there but I don't know this commander's team is really tough overall from a betting perspective only underdogs in five games but also only favored by a touchdown or more in two games all year so it's like a ton of very tight games that like could really easily go either way I feel like they're another over team be honest I think we have another one in the division for sure but I just think that there are I agree in the McLaren piece massive leverage you don't make the investments the continued investments along the offensive line When you have this rookie contract situation, you know, you kind of have to, like, you know, even though he was the second pick, you know, you still have him on a team friendly deal based off of his performance last year. You can't fumble the bag by trying to get cute with your one-of-one receiver, right? Like, you can't be asking Luke McCaffrey or Michael Gallup to go out and win Light McCorm wins, right? And he was awesome last year.

And he's been awesome since he's been in the league with some pretty poor quarterbacks, right? So I think they have to get that done. and I think they do. Brian Robinson barely had a really good camp, and they like him, and he's in the contract year, and I think he could be pretty good for them. Again, with the upgrades, the offensive line,

defense makes me a little nervous. They didn't do a great job at replacing some of the talent that they had last year that kind of left. I worry about how they're going to generate pressure. They really rely on blitzing at a really heavy rate to get it done. Now, I think their cornerback

groom if Marshawn Lattermore is healthy and kind of gets back to who he was in years past. If he could be like a top 15, top 20 coverage corner. I like what they did with Drew Amos in the draft. They have some other depth there. Mikey Sanders still is a guy that I like quite a bit. I think that the secondary could be okay. I worry about the pass rush. I worry about the run defense.

I think there are some concerns up front losing some of the guys that they have had there kind of for years up front. So you need, you know, Javon Kinlaw has been a bust. you know, in San Francisco and New York to get it together. That makes me a little bit nervous. So I think they could be a team where if McClory comes back, offensively, they're still going to maybe take a step forward or can kind of be where they were last year.

But defense is going to be a little bit more problematic. So I don't know. I would lean maybe no on the playoffs at plus 122. But again, I think the offense could be good enough to be competitive. And the NFC is wide open. If this is an AFC team, I would say, for sure there's enough teams I think are you know more well balanced than the commanders but the NFC is is a different beast yeah I mean I think there's a chance we'll get to him in a second

year I think there's a chance that the cowboys can beat them again season like maybe split the series like one one something like that um and yeah I think the no playoffs is interesting also adam brings up here commander's run defense plays one of the hardest schedule of lead running backs this year yeah that's I mean when you play sayquan twice that obviously helps and like you know beyond that too yeah up front If you look at PFF's grades right now projected to start, we've Jvonne Kinlaw, Payne, and then Wise Jr. None of them rank higher than 79th out of 120 qualifying players on the defensive line.

That's a tough sell. You know, obviously, and as you mentioned, like, Marshall and Latimore, what is he at this point? Like, we don't know. Mikey Sanders still, he's your boy. You know, that's one of my biggest notes here, you know, written out. I remember you love that guy. So he's also like, I'm pretty sure, what is he? How tall is he?

You're not a big guy. Yeah, 5-10, I think my, is listed here. That might be pushing it. But last year they had to push him out wide, which was not great, but he held up. But like, you allow him to just kind of be a nickel and someone that can like run, fill, blitz off the edge. He has those tools and spades. Like, that's fine.

But they have to ask him to step out of position last year and actually held up. So, yeah, they need some of those guys that were all kind of like Dietrich Wise and New England in the last couple of years trending down. Eddie Goldman had some good years. Chicago and Atlanta like trending down they need Johnny Newton who they used you know an early second round pick a couple years ago they need him to step up um you know Vaughn miller is a swing guy on like clear passing down like does he have anything left in the tank so uh Cleveland Farrell like it's just a bunch of names like some early draft capital kind of been disappointments

I think it's just kind of like throw it all at the wall see what sticks see if anyone emerges and you know we'll find out what happens there but Bobby Wagner continues to produce even though he's a little long in the tooth. They love to use Frankie Louvre as a blitzer. You know, that's fine. They have to generate it more than I think just being able to line up and be better than the guys across from you. And this is the one position in all football where I think your skill level really matters.

Like you as a pass rusher have to beat the dude in front of you. How good you are at football matters a ton. Like you can't really scheme. You can scheme, obviously second level pressures and different stuff and, you know, stunts and all sorts of stuff. Like you got to go ahead and beat some guys. And they don't have a bunch of guys that line up and win based off of what you're talking about with the PFF grades.

So we'll find out. They'll be interesting. Amy, some of these cowboy commander games will be like 53 and a half, 54 totals. And it could be pretty interesting. So we'll see with the look at line. I mean, we can, you know, pivot into the cowboys here in a second. What we have.

So they play each other. They play week two, I think, right? Or week one? No, I'm not seeing like week eight or nine. So like, yeah, later season. I mean, that might end up being low. Yeah, both games are 49 for the commanders against Dallas. But we don't get that many totals in the 50s anymore in today's NFL, but I mean, this should be one.

Yeah. All right, we'll move over there. Let's go to Dallas. They are 22nd strength of schedules towards the bottom. One of the more difficult. They are 50 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 28 to 1 to win the NFC. You get them at plus 675 to win the division, win total at 7.5. to choose to the over.

Plus 190 to make the playoffs. You can lay 2.10 to miss the playoffs in pretty low expectations for Zales coming in the last season. And then kind of the bottom falls out. I mean, they had a ton of injuries, really important injuries. DAC lost in week nine for the season. C.D. Lam felt like he really wasn't 100% for most of the year. DeRond Blan, Trayvon Diggs missed a bunch of games.

DeMarcus Lawrence missed almost the entire year. We lost Michael Parsons for about a month. Parsons is obviously driving headlines now with his trade request and holdout. That one's fascinating to me to see what happens there. We also have a new coaching staff. Brian Schontenheimer promoted to head coach who stays on the staff. He's now the head guy. And Matt Iber Fluse, obviously former Bears head coach, back to lead the defense,

which I think could be okay. This is another one of these scenarios where maybe head coach is not your role. But, you know, Iber Fluss had some success in Indy. He's got him the job with Chicago. Now back leading the defense here. I know we think this is an over team because there's some concerns defensively and there could be some exciting ceiling

with the offense, with George Pickens and some of the things here on the offensive side. Yeah, I think that's probably their most exciting addition, at least in my mind, because he's just such a perfect compliment to C.D. Lamb, like they've been needing someone who can just do anything on the outside alongside the CD Lamb to open a more space forever. You know, they tried, you know,

Jaylon Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo, like, they've been trying rotating, Brandon Cooks for a while. they try rotating these bums and like none of them can like you know get open or like really do much and so now adding george pickens who i think he's like just a fantastic player in general absolutely you know bad shit crazy but just like a great football player um and so i think that just having both them there and they've talked about it already in training camp of like you like cd lamb is like i can't be bracketed anymore because george pickens is like you know we're going to put us on the same side

and it's going to be really tough like either the safety has come down and try and help or you know if he's not, and then Pickens is going to be wide open behind the defense. So I think that that kind of one-two duo is massive here. And then when you factor in the Cowboys running back room, you have Miles Sanders who's already injured, Devante Williams, who is like one of the worst running backs in the league last year in terms of every metric. And then you draft Jaden Blue, who I think could end up being pretty good. He's already kind of banged up.

I think he's like, he's more of an explosive back. I don't think he's like consistent. And so the problem with all that is like you put that behind an offensive line that's nowhere near what it used to be. We're looking like middle of the pack by most metrics. I mean, they're just going to have to throw the ball 50 times a game, like 40 times a game. It's going to be crazy because they're going to run the ball in first down, like Schadenheimer

tries to do, and then it's going to go nowhere. So it's going to be like a lot of long second downs and DAC just playing hero ball. So then also, I'm sure you can get into it. The defense is interesting. Finished 28th in EPA per play last year. That was with being 13th in turnover's force per game. I mean, I don't know. I think the secondary is thin at best and at worst are like one of the worst units in the league.

First of all, the Javante Williams, I don't want to call it a stray, but it was just like Javante Williams, he was one of the worst running backs in the league based on all metrics. Every single one. Just so casually awful, like just like based off of, I don't even cite one. I'm just going to cite all of them. Like, based off of all of them, he was bad. I was looking at it literally last week. I'm like success rate.

It was like 48th out of like 50. qualifiers like it was just like i mean yards after contact yards before like everything i was just so bad just all across the board would have to cite any of them particularly just know you found a metric he was really bad at it so yeah i mean hey george picking's longest reception overs gonna be popping that's the market that's still very much available that we'd like to bet last year that i think we're gonna go back to um i know you played some some dac alts which i think those, I think, are a really good look. It's still viable.

We were on with Mayo last week, and I made the case. There's no path for CD, or for DAC to hit 4K, 4,500 yards without CD lamb blown over 1,200 yards. That's available, like, plus money, which I think is really nice. So some opportunities to bet into, I think, some of the high-level outcomes of this offense, because I'm with you, like defensively. I mean, I just don't, I don't know, like there's concerns, health, wise in the secondary like their best defender last year in the back half jordan lewis their nickel corner is really good he's in jacksville um so duran blan's going to step up

kair elam was just could not find the fields in buffalo first round pick um they had needs a perimeter corner a couple times over the last couple years just couldn't win the job or stay in the field and now the cowboys need him to play a starter role basically as it is right now so they need digs to stay healthy there's concerns that he's not right to start the year, you know, they drafted some guys with question marks, health-wise, in the back end. Yeah, I don't know. Like, if they don't have Michael Parsons, they decide to make a move and actually trade him, which would be, look, obviously they can get a haul, but you just not a player that

you trade. This is just a absolutely massively impactful player in its prime. You just can't give up. And now you're going to have to pay more than you had to pay at any point in the last year and a half when you could have got this deal done. like I don't know why they did this just with DAC. Maybe I would see. I just don't understand the process of like just kicking the can down the road

and then eventually paying the Piper even more than you did. Like I, I don't know. It's fascinating to watch. I mean, again, like you can turn on ESPN at any point in the day and find Cowboys news. So you've heard all of the Jerry World stuff. We're not here to litigate that. Obviously, there's anything can happen around the league.

And it doesn't matter newswise. It's like those, you know, big media shows are starting with Cowboys news. It's just insane. But, yeah, defense is not good. And even if they stay healthy and play, I think, to their ceiling, they've relied so much on opportunistic turnover rates over the last two years. And that stuff is just really something that levels out year over year. And if you can't generate pressure, it gets really harder,

much harder to actually turn teams over. So I worry about their ability to create pressure, especially if Parsons is out as well. And the gauntlet down the stretch is brutal. There's some winnable football games early. Obviously, a tough week one on the road in Philly. But man, look, you get to that week 12 stretch to the end of the season. Philly, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, Chargers.

Maybe I got a little bit easier with some of the Chargers news that's come down. And then on the road with the commanders, like that is a really, really difficult stretch of last year. Playoff teams, teams, I think. think we think we think are going to be good again. They're on the wrong set of some rest tied up in there, too. It's a really tough stretch in November and December for this team. If they are, you know, maybe carrying some momentum positively through October. So, yeah, I mean, seven and a half kind of feels baked in.

But is there a way to bet outside of maybe the DAC stuff that you've already done? Yeah, I mean, the, so I think Jake Lodenberg had a great play in our Discord a week or two ago. He played Giovante under 550 and a half. And I did bet Dackflead the league in passing 12 to 1 and plus 350 to throw over 4,500 yards. Was on pace for 4,500 last year, through for 4,500 plus the year before. Now I think, again, as we talk about best receiving Corey, then he's had, plus no running game. But yeah, I don't know if you remember this.

Just like, Kair Elam brought back some vivid memories of me because I bet some like, I think it was DeAndre Hopkins unders. He had zero catches through three quarters. and then Kareelam got forced into the game. And Hopkins lined up against him and they threw it to him like three times in the same drive and he hit his overs because Kairilum sucks so bad. Like he just was getting like dogwalked by, you know, late career, DeAndre Hopkins.

We're tough scenes, man. It's tough. Yeah. I mean, there are going to be some teams that just, I mean, they're smart. They know when, you know, someone goes down, they see this guy come in like, oh, okay, here we go. This is where the offense is going through wisely for the next,

possession or two, and now this guy's going to be out there and, you know, playing, I don't know, 80% of snaps for them this year. It's what they want. That's what they have right now. So it's rough. Yeah. I think the Cowboys are going to win some games that they probably shouldn't. Sure.

Just because I think they can like, you know, again, like it's like I equate them to and I tweeted this out. I think they're just like Bengals, you know, down Bengals in Texas basically. Like their defense is not going to be quite the, I don't know, extreme bad of what the Bengals were last year. Maybe they are. I mean, that's possible. It's in the range of outcomes, I guess, if Micah holds out.

And their offense, just not going to be able to run the ball, throw the ball a million times. They got good weapons. So, yeah, I think that's kind of going to be what we're going to see here. So, yeah, definitely an over team. Don't know how many games I want to bet them to win. Another team that if they can't stop the run, like initially I liked them against Philly a little bit.

And now I'm just thinking it might be a tough matchup because, again, Philly secondary is good. And they're going to be able to run the ball all over the Cowboys, probably, and it might just be tough. we got a week one bet i'm ready to go yeah our guy former chicago bear backup middle linebacker jack sandborn now wearing the green dot for the cowboys and he refluss his offense i don't care what the sandborne line is in week one against the eagles those cowards better post something we are smashing jack sandborn over seven and a half eight and a half tackles against the eagles

smashed you have 15 right he's going to have like 15 or 20 by then and the dude is a dog absolute dog and now he's going to get uh you know starter reps we're in the green dot he's got that job the other dudes are fighting for linebacker two we at least have sandborn for week one against the eagles so we got a week one bet already in the holster ready to go so um we'll find ways to pick on the or in the uh the cowboys all season long but not a playoff team in my opinion i don't know what you think no it's just a tough sell i mean their defense would have to be so i guess the The only upside, I think, for this defense is, like, they're opportunistic, right? Like, in a micah plays, like, they can create havoc and have a sack on second down, which

forces a long third, or, like, create some turnovers, you know, obviously the hold Duran bland stuff, you know, a couple of years ago at this point. Like, that was, yeah, six big sixes. That's outrageous. But, like, I think that's kind of, like, in their DNA is, like, they're not very good on a play-to-play basis, but they can create havoc. So that's the upside case. If that comes together, maybe the offensive line plays better, and they can run the ball at all like i just have i just have such low expectations for being able to like milk games and like close out games for this team like because if you can't play defense and you can't run the ball like it's i mean it's just really tough to win pretty simple yeah yeah uh all right next one

last one new york football giants most difficult schedule in a league by margin almost too which is really tough like this happened in the past last year too like you're bad And then somehow you draw like an impossible schedule. It's just, it's here we are for the Giants. 230 to one with the Super Bowl. They are 125 to one to win the NFC. You can lay 30 to 1 to win the division. It's a big number to win a division.

Win total five and a half, juice to the under. A lot of new in New York, coaching staff for an office still intact. They have one more ride basically. Look, Jackson Dart, eventually probably. Russell Wilson, the starts. That combination, though, is probably better than Daniel Jones, Drew Locke, and Tommy DeVito. They need the offensive line to stay healthy.

It's still a bad unit. But, you know, Andrew Thomas has been beat up for years now, it feels like he's really good when he's in there. They struggle when he's not. Defense could be good, but I don't know. It might not matter, Connor, in this schedule. Yeah, it's like the deep, I mean, the defense has some wagons up front, obviously.

They kind of just got like, yeah, they were in a really tough. spot in this draft because they could either, I don't know, like, they just didn't really have any options outside of, you know, taking, what's the name? Why am I blanking here? He's like, you know, again, they're their edge, like the pass rusher. Yeah, I do a carter. That's what is. And because either you, like, traded down or like you tried to, I think they tried to trade up for Travis Hunter. Like, it's just like, there wasn't anything they could really do. And it wasn't a position that they really needed. So now their pass rush, I think, is awesome. But

is can their secondary hold up can their run defense hold up like and then on the other side of the ball their offensive line is i mean bottom 10 by most most most standards most most most rankings um and then they're receiving corps malik neighbors obviously awesome dairy slaten signed a big contract um he'll just continue to just run wind sprints down the sideline eventually catch a few moon balls i think from russ yeah i think he his like all this might be in play really in the season my biggest question i want to i i share this all the time whenever i can so it's like the look headlines tool on 4-4-4 right now you can see how long do we think ross last here you got at washington at dallas against the chiefs against the chargers at new Orleans a little reprieve

here i think this could be the first jackson start the only green on the screen yes if they're favored in one game at new Orleans which i think they're probably better than norleans they have more like they are again they have some wagons in front their pass rush is good they might just cause some problems for teams like especially like norleans but then you have philly Denver Philly, San Fran. Like Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, even is tough. New England's not like a cakewalk by any means. They're definitely a better team.

Into the buy, like there is no, there's no breathing. You can take a deep breath maybe for New Orleans, but even then that's going to be a dog. It's not going to be an easy win by any means. So I don't know. We talked about on Mayo's show. There's a prop right now. It's like over four and a half games for Jackson Dart.

That's basically they're setting it as like the buy, the late buy essentially. I would be shocked if Russ makes it there, to be honest, at this point. I mean, it's just like they're going to win like two games before they're by. Maybe two or three. And we don't even know which ones. Like they could easily lose all of them, to be honest. I totally agree.

But we think about this in terms of what's actually the dynamic of what's going on in New York as well, right? We have a coaching staff in a front office that needs to, is trying to keep their job. And their best case scenario, this is not a playoff team, right? they're not making the playoffs in this division with the schedule with this roster but the sell to the owners after the season is getting jackson dart in and developing him and showing that like hey we identified this kid my kathka's like look what we're doing day ball's like look what we're doing look at a nice little run we had the end of the year we were competitive down the stretch let's stay let's build something here and that like that doesn't involve russ making late season

starts right like because we know what russ is at this point in his career he's a fine replacement level back end starter right somewhere between starter 28 and 35 right like he's you know kind of appropriately where he is your path moving forward to keep your job is selling the fact that you've done something with jackson dart so he's got to get in four and a half games for him seems like an absolute smash um you know outside of him getting hurt somehow in you know the season right so uh yeah the schedule is just absolutely brutal. I actually think the defense is, I don't want to say really good. I think it's good.

When you have like multiple pass rushers that can win up front from the interior and the perimeter, that's really, really good. I like the additions that they made in the offseason in the secondary. I think the cornerback room is decent. Like your guy, Drew Phillips, another dog in the slot. Drew, loves your. Paulson and Debo at corner, like Paulson of Debo is a pretty solid addition. for them. Devon Hollowen is like a deep safety that they brought over from Miami like him a lot.

I think Tyler Nubin is a home run that they landed in the second round last year. He got hurt down the stretch. Like he's a outstanding box safety that can help with the run. Like I don't know, Deontay Banks on the perimeter. Like they got some guys. They're okay. Brian Burns is awesome. Like if Carter's good and they get anything out of Thibodeau, like that's a pretty decent defense overall.

But is it enough to be, you know, really competitive based on the schedule? an offensive line, all the positions, the short fields are going to be put in, it's going to be tough. So, yeah, I think the best way to bet it is the Jackson Dart line versus maybe anything giant specific. Yeah, I mean, if you gave, so just type of that, you gave the giants, like the nineers schedule, they probably win like, I don't know, five, six games, maybe seven games, I'm like that. Like, they're not a terrible team. They're just, they're just have had an uphill battle in every game this season. Like they are a good bit worse than every single team that they play outside of New Orleans. Yeah. Pretty much at this point. So it's, that's just tough. It's tough to win games

like that. And like you said, Russ is not good. I think he's actually going to probably play fine, like, but fines is not enough. Like you said, like it's down the stretch when they're two and eight. I mean, it's tough sell. Like your quarterback is not like elevating anyone. So they're just going to have to see what they have in Jackson Dart. Even if Russ is playing like, okay, and he's not costing them games or anything. He just, they, they need more. more juice, I'm sure, offensively. So we'll see what that looks like. I'm interested to see.

I mean, I think League Neighbors is awesome, obviously. But again, yeah, we'll see. Yeah, I mean, look, it's the New York media as well, right? So, like, if Russ is just kind of spinning his tires, and like you said, he's not necessarily, like, elevating them, but not, like, being the reason why they lose a bunch of games either. You're still going to get calls for, you know, especially depending on what we see from Jackson down in the preseason,

but every question. I think after every game, they lose what's going on in the quarterback position. We just were to have that nonstop. So we're going to get the answer to that sooner than later for Jackson Dart and get him into football games. So, yeah, look, more we lay this out, like even with some maybe some questions in Philadelphia, some of the defenses, the defenses, especially in the middle of the pack, those two teams that could be competitive. I just think it's going to be really hard for those teams to slow down Philly. who I don't know, could get it back and get it done.

I'm very interested to pick NFC winners here when we get there in a couple of weeks and we get done with the preview series. Yeah, I think that'll be, yeah, because I think the NFC is way more open. Like the Eagles are bell the ball and they're, I mean, but it's just one team. You know, I really think that there's like a reasonable drop off after them. And, you know, one team being at the top is pretty fragile for the rest of like the thing. If Hertz gets injured or the defense isn't as good or something like that happens, like the NFC is wide, wide open, and even more than it already is.

I guess one other, like, crazy long shot bet based on what we talked about, like the Cowboys win 12, 13 games. I would bet Dak Prescott is winning MVP. And so I think that's like 40 to 1, depending on where you're looking at it, I don't remember exactly. I'll look at the actual numbers here real quick. But I thought that that was kind of an interesting way to play it too, because if it pans out, like, you know, again,

he's going to be the reason why. It's almost certainly not going to be, there's no Christian McAfee. free scenario under that as well so yeah i mean he is yeah 40 to one fan dora now i mean okay yeah like yeah if you think the cowboys can win games and or the eagles someone in the eagles gets heard or i don't know just anything and he throws for 5 000 yards he's very much in play to win MVP i think yep no good call out all right good stuff as always uh remember again four for four live on youtube subscribe we'll be moving there moving forward move the line wherever you listen the podcast nothing's changing there just we're again consolidating all of the four for four

content on the youtube side to the four for four live site take advantage of sharp stack as we showed you at the top it is free for all users right now again you don't need a paid subscription you can take advantage of a paid subscription 444.com slash plans get the betting subscription the sharp stack upgrade try monthly you try yearly but right now sharp stack is available for free play around tail some bets that obviously that subscription comes with everything that you would get on the betting side as well which again is literally everything that we offer for for on the fantasy side rankings projections all that stuff all the in season articles along with all of our betting stuff so

gets you in the discord all of our betting picks um all the conners unders all the tackle bets all the sacks all that stuff so definitely check that out again 444.com slash plants we'll be back next week to do it again we have two more nfc divisions and then And we'll do a prop show to wrap up the season. And then, bam, week one, it is really, really, really close. Cannot wait. So appreciate hanging out with us today. Again, subscribe before you take off on 4-4-4-5 for Connor.

I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.