Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | NFC South Preview

Episode Date: August 20, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the NFC South in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the NFC South and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely!Presented by YahooFantasy #YahooPartner. Play Now at yahoofantasy.com/tmap👉 Hit this link for DraftKings Draft One, Get One!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to move the line. We're sent by 444.com. Betting subscription at 4-4-4 is the only resource you need to be profitable this NFL season. You can play fantasy, best ball, high stakes, or just bet on any sport or any market. 4-4.com is where you need to be this season. I am Ryan Noonan here to finish off the divisional preview series and get our Super Bowl winner, Super Bowl teams, playoff teams, all that and more. with Connor Allen what's going on my friend yeah not too much it's good to wrap up

our divisional previews i feel pretty good about where we're at heading to the season at this point um and yeah it's it's exciting times i mean football feels like it's here like we're what two weeks out uh and so i mean yeah two weeks from tomorrow i think it is the thursday so that'd be awesome i mean i'm so excited yeah it's here at this point we're uh yeah so if you missed anything move line wherever you listen to podcast you can get all the other divisional previews you can go to youtube if you like to watch us do this as well uh 4 for 4 4 live on youtube make sure you subscribe there so you don't miss a show you get all the other great live content from 4 for 4 we've been excited to share a sharpsack which is our new suite of

betting tools we've been doing lots of different you know lives every day just kind of picking off some bets in the eV tool again check that out if you have not done so it is now behind the paywall, but technically still free for a seven-day trial. So it is no longer just free for you to click into. You will need to, you know, sign up and start your seven-day trial. But again, if you have any questions there, let us know, really excited about it, starting to do some more backend testing and seeing how profitable. It's been to even pick up a market all like home runs. We're just betting with a little bit of thought process in terms of, you know, EV and growth. I know you've had a lot of success doing that. I've been doing some WMBA stuff, which has been

fun. I know our guy, Pat Mayo's been picking off WMBA stuff, which has been great. Anything you want to tell the people about Sharpstack or before we jump in here and wrap up the divisions? Yeah, I think Andy hit like a 15 to one home run bet yesterday. It was like, hell yeah. Yeah, which is crazy. So, I mean, there's, yeah, we got results that we're backloading in here.

So, yeah, home run bets have been good. Strikeout bets, too. We just added as well. You can look at the ROI, look at EV, average CV, depending on when you bet it, too. So, like, you could do like an hour to close, eight hours. four hours before the market starts. So you're really looking at a wide variety of ways. I think that's, I mean, it's about as transparent as it gets.

It's not just like a trust us, our algorithm knows what it's doing. It's like, you're all the results for everything. So you can find it for yourself. Yeah, again, everything that Connor and I have done historically at 4-4 on the betting side in terms of, you know, plays for subscribers of being us generating and originating these bats, right? Like handicapping the defensive side of the ball and making bats, you know, attacking you know, soft markets, you know, unders that Connor just absolutely bamboozled last year.

This is different. This is, you know, kind of leveraging bookmaking books against slower moving domestic books and finding edges from a top down standpoint. And yeah, we're really, really excited just as a supplemental bankroll builder for the other stuff that you like to bet. And you kind of get into a season, maybe you're just the football better and you want to find opportunities where you feel like you're still getting in good outside of the football window.

when we get into, you know, the winter, we get into the summer, early spring and whatnot, you know, we're going to have every sport. We already have every sport in there. So really excited about that again, 444.com slash plans. The betting subscription gets all the standard stuff that we've done historically. There's a Sharpstack subscription there as well. So check that out. Again, make sure you subscribe to the show, move the line, and then the YouTube live stuff, we really appreciate that as well.

So we are here to put a bow on the divisions with the NFC South. one of the more interesting divisions some of the um you know some weaker teams especially historically this is kind of been the bucks we went from you know the brady uh bucks into like the you know the second version of that with like the brady tom bulls version of the bucks and now we're kind of in this um you know baker role and baker is just kind of i don't know he's a head coachmaker at this point they are the favorites to win the division uh they have have the 10th easiest schedule. All these teams have, the bucks have the hardest at the 10th. Like all these have easy schedules partially because they each get two games against each

other. They are 35 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. 17 to 1 to win the NFC. You can get them plus 100 to win the division. Win total at 9 and a half. They are minus 154 to make the playoffs plus 140 to miss it. This is a eighth offensive coordinator in eight seasons for Baker Mayfield, which is just absolutely. while. Like you said, he's just making head coaches, right? Dave Canales, head coach gets one year with Baker, gets a head coaching job in Carolina. Liam Cohen, one year with Baker, gets a head coaching job in Jacksonville. That is good news for Josh Grisard. If he is looking to scale up next season, he's staying on though. So there's some continuity. He was part of the staff there with

Liam Cohn last year. Connor will give you the floor. Talk to me about the bucks. Yeah, they're an interesting team for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. I mean, just like a rotating door at OC, basically. And I think for Baker, there's a couple other factors, too. Obviously, the draft of Mecca O'Buka way earlier than kind of what we thought. He was, like, viewed as a fringe first-round guy. We got some kind of late steam thinking that he was going to be, I don't even know, like a mid-20s pick, I think that was that. And then he goes, I think it was 18th or 19th over all the bucks at that point.

And so now it kind of makes more sense, though, because you have Chris Godwin coming back from his injury, who re-signed, and he's still not even jogging yet. I mean, the season's two weeks away. like I think he might miss at least four games, maybe six weeks. There's a chance he's not even right all season. So now you have Ibuka probably playing a massive role. Mike Evans, who's aging a little bit. And then Jalen of Millen already picked up an injury and is going to miss the first

nine weeks of the season. So you have, I mean, kind of like a wide receiver court that looked really good initially on paper, like insanely good, maybe one of the best in the league. And now it's already kind of a little bit dinged up and like that depth has kind of falling apart a little bit, especially if anything happens to Mike Evans, it would just be like Buka out there. So, you know, I think that's an important. Asset as well.

You know, they obviously suffered an offensive line injury as well. Tristan Worf's, which I think, you know, matters to some extent as well. And Bucky Irving's show, I was expecting to be in full force. I think still will be. I don't know they're going to use much Rashad White. I don't think they're going to use much Sean Tucker. But I would expect to have those things up too, right? Yeah, Rashad White's dinged up.

Like they've faced, I don't know if any teams, honestly, so far as face as many preseason injuries as they have or like maybe more injured than we thought heading into the year. Like they're in a really tough spot. so far, especially offensively, I don't know, like maybe they're just a team that I haven't really been on in years past. I've always thought they're interesting but not good and they've continuously proved me wrong. I think this might be the year that I'm right. Like, I'm just not super into the bucks this year. Yeah, I mean, I think you undersold the, like,

the Tristan Warf's things. Like, I think it really, it really matters. And we're looking at at least the first four games, it seems like. This is a guy that, like, came in, was like the best right tackle in the league. And they move him the left tackle. he's like one of like the three or four best left tackles in the league and look like look at the early season schedule a little bit right it's like we'll get into some of the stuff in terms of Atlanta here but they first they open with Atlanta who you know heavily invested in the edge finally Houston which might have the best edge duo in the league the Jets who have a lot of questions but they actually have a fairly strong edge duo with will McDonald's and

Jermyn Johnson coming back and he's healthy he's already you know looks like he'll be good to go for week one and Philly who's just going to you know they'll beat you along the defensive line you know no matter where they're lining up so it's a tough spot it's a tough draw Baker part of his development I think the last couple of years it's been interesting to see as he's evolved is his improvement in pocket awareness and taking sacks he was just early stages and even early stages with the bucks taking sacks and an insane rate and that's been really one of the areas he's improved pretty drastically so yeah that one's going to matter quite a bit so maybe there's some early season opportunities there um as you said like i i don't know that

mike evans is like he's getting older but we haven't seen signs of slowing down per se like still got there the thousand yard mark last season even though he missed a handful of games such a red zone beast there uh you absolutely love uh bucket irving as a dog so i think on our first draft pot and one of the things i said i didn't know where he was going to go in the draft but just watching a little bit of a mecca abuka because i'm not a huge college guy i got to give my family a little bit of time, and that ends up being Saturdays. But I just felt like that was a guy that was a no doubt solid pro. Like, no, like he was just going to be a guy that was a contributor for a decade plus,

maybe not a wide receiver one, but like everything in camp has been pretty great there too. The defense concerns. They're going to blitz a ton. That's Todd Bowles always. They also just kind of have to find ways to creatively generate pressure because they don't necessarily have a bunch of guys that win. They went out and took a chance on Hassan Reddick, which I think was a good splash that's worth taking. He's still just 30 years old.

He's just a couple of years removed from being one of the best edge rushers in the league. Yaya Diabi is a guy that, like, if they had sack props for him, I would take the over. He massively outperformed his sack number last year. It was way better than what, you know, four and a half sacks. Like you think he could probably get to eight comfortably just off of his, you know, repeating the performance. He's still a young guy, too. So there's some upside there. battles going on in the back end on some players that I like but I still think it's probably

best case scenario in middle of the pack defense that maybe they can be good on you know like situationally right like dialing up the blitz and getting home at the right time just not a bunch of winners defensively so I'm kind of with you like it's it feels like a spot where someone can go out and and take this from them because there's a lot of just kind of a rolling downhill train of cluster injuries and this is how things start and that's where you really get into problems. Yeah, I don't know if the Falcons or Panthers are necessarily better than the Bucks, like on paper, but like I think there are teams that could easily end up with more wins.

And so that's, you know, like, yeah, so I don't know. We can get into them in a little bit. But, yeah, like, I think this Bucks team is they're not like some dominant team that I expect to easily win this division. I think they're going to be in a lot of tough, a lot of tough games, especially with these teams. It's interesting, though, they're only underdogs in just five games right now. I mean, that's pretty healthy for a look headline perspective, but I'm just not sure how much

I really buy that. I think there might be worse than the market's projecting. What's interesting, and we'll get to it at the end of the show. We kind of give some of our thoughts on, you know, who's going to win divisions and stuff. Like, the NFC is wide open comparatively. Like, I think there's some more top heavy teams in the AFC, but there's also, like, some really strong divisions. So this just doesn't feel like a spot where we're getting two playoff teams, right?

Like, it could happen. But considering what we think of, I think the North in particular, we did the West last week. I think we both like a couple of teams in the west. You have both the Eagles and commanders in the east. So it doesn't feel like this is a spot where we're getting multiple playoff teams. I think this would be, you know, the long shot of the division for us to say, hey, line, you know, which conference or which division gets two playoff teams. I think you'd make the south, you know, the longest shot to get there. So the division part really matters a little bit more. Falcons are next. Fourth easiest schedule on the board, 80 to one to win the Super Bowl. They

are 35 to 1 to win the NFC plus 240 available to win the division win totals you know you got to shop around depending on what your lean is there's some seven and a half's juiced over some eight and a half's juice to the under plus 155 to make the playoffs so again 240 to win the division plus 155 to make the playoffs like you know again that's just a weird little like do you think that both them and Tampa I guess are going to the playoffs I'd much rather take the divisional price. A lot of continuity on the offensive side of the ball. Michael Pennix Jr.

Has the keys to the car now from the jump. Somehow, this team went 8, 9 last year. My mind, it was way worse than that because I think of how poorly the Kirk Cousins experience was in the middle of the season here. Pennix Jr. graded out very well in the final three-game stretch. They did play the commanders, the Giants, and the Panthers.

So I would take that with a grain of salt. They did average 32 points per game in that stretch. The week 18 game against the Panthers, again, massive, that's not even a grain of salt. It's a huge ball of salt. But PFF charted seven big time throws from Pennix Jr. In the week 18 game for the Panthers. And the Panthers had a chance, or the Panthers had a little bit of momentum. The Falcons actually still had a chance to make the playoffs in that stretch there, too.

There's been no other quarterback since 2020 that's had more big time throws in a game. So this guy does have armed talent. can he stay healthy we had a series of uh 2018 in college ACL 2019 is right shoulder 2020 the same ACL second time 2021 is throwing shoulder so four straight years ended with season ending injuries to shoulders and knees it's not great um but some upside if he stays healthy yeah I think there's a chance that he's just like I mean he's comps to you know like a way where his version of Stafford coming out, like a little bit. I think there's just a chance he's like lefty Stafford in a sense.

Like, you know, poor man's lefty Stafford. But like, like they have plenty of talent on this team. Like there's, you know, with Drake London, Ray Ray Ray McLeod is a fine, slot receiver. Darnall Mooney. You know, I think he's banged up right now. And like that's a little bit uncertain. Honestly, he's like week to week. And I mean, we're two weeks out from the season.

His status hasn't been like improved much. But Casey Washington, apparently, has been having a good camp behind him. And so I think that's kind of interesting. Kyle Pitts was talked about early. Since then, the reports haven't quite been as good. But then when you have, you know, Tyler L.G or B. John Robinson behind a reasonable offensive line. Like, I think that they could be pretty good offensively. Like, if Pennix takes that next step forward, like, they could be a leap that just, our team that just takes like a massive leap offensively.

And it kind of all made sense heading into it. Like, like you said, Kirk didn't play very well. They still finished eight and nine. And then defensively, you know, they added some edge help. they still have plenty of holes in their roster, but they should be better than last year, I would think. So, like, this is a team that I think could very easily win this division if Michael Pendix takes a big step forward,

which I think, again, is, like, we just don't have enough of a sample to say that he's, like, amazing or bad, but, like, he flashed enough that, like, if he puts it all together, I think he'd easily, you know, take another step forward to me, this could be a really good team. Yeah, and they didn't move off of Kurt. So, like, while it wasn't great, we do have an injury-prone, at least historically,

injury-prone quarterback, at least, you know, he can come in and kind of manage things. Again, you're not going to be super excited about. Again, this is probably, you know, again, it was an 89 football team with mostly Kirk at the helm. So, like, you wouldn't be excited about them. But again, it's not someone that's, there's significantly worse backup quarterback situation in the league is I guess

what I'm trying to say. So, yeah, I mean, yeah, there's upside. The offensive line is actually really good. I think it's worth noting that Caleb McGarry was carded off of practice field today as we record here on Wednesday, that's never good. It's really important, you know, right tackle for them, especially at the back side, your blind side of your left-handed quarterback. So we're going to have to see what happens there because that, you know, is important.

The continuity is really nice. New defensive coordinator, Jeff Albrecht was obviously with the Jets last year. This team has ranked 32nd across the past 5, 10, and 20 seasons in total sacks. They have punted on one of the most important pieces of defensive assignments for the last two decades, basically, right? They had a little blimp in there, you know, with Dan Quinn when they went to the Super Bowl where they got a lot of pressure and had a couple of guys pop. It was just something historically that they've just always, always taken a step back from it. And you just can't compete with top tier teams, especially when we get into, you know, the end of the season or you make your find yourself in the playoffs. You like have to be a problem.

You have to have guys that can win. And last year they threw a bunch of day two picks of the problem. They got nothing out of it. They had injuries there as well. Last year or this season, they added Leonard Floyd. Still got a little bit juice left. It was in San Francisco last year. It was okay.

And then two day one picks. First pick, Jaylon Walker, who I think long term could be really interesting. Played mostly linebacker at Georgia is kind of a hybrid. I don't think they're going to get much out of him this year. He'll, you know, it looks like they're going to give him the go. But in terms of what his role, and he's been basically an edge. so far. They have not been playing him at like multiple positions. So he's been edge only. But James Pierce Jr. is a dude I'm excited about. I love talking about this kid.

All we need to know is that he's a rookie and he's taken over control of the radio in the locker room, which just tells you, and no one's, everyone's cool with it. He started like six fights and like none of the vets are mad. He just seems to be like Uber intense. I've seen a couple interviews and like does this dude smile or laugh he maybe he might but i think he just kind of wants to like destroy people big time traits here probably goes significantly earlier if he didn't have some off field questions now he needs to be an answer because like how they went about going and drafting him was disastrous they traded an unprotected 2026 first round pick to the rams to trade back into the 26th pick to take pierce when you have a injury prone quarterback

who's unproven like this that rams pick next year could be or this falcas picks for the rams could be extremely valuable if things go sideways here in atlanta so pierce kind of has to be a home run i think he will be it's going to be one of these like bad process good results situations because it's still like really poor team building but if he's kind of a hit um i mean last year their best pass rushers they're off ball lineback or kaden ellis that is just not it so um yeah Interesting battles in the secondary, like they could be, they could be fun. And again, the schedule is soft. So I'm interested in, I think Pierce, 19-1 is a great defensive rookie of the year,

but shared that, you know, months ago for subscribers. Still 19-1 on Fandul. Take that. I think that's a fantastic value should be, you know, closer to 10 or 12 or something like that. He's been a problem in camp. I like that. That's a solid look.

I think you tweeted about it the other day, too. It's interesting, too, that the Falcons, underdogs in four straight games, prior to their buy, but it's against Tampa and week one, Carolina, at Carolina in week three. So like two pretty winnable games there. I think two and two added to the buy would be kind of a winning of the other games at Minnesota against Washington.

Two tough games there. Then you come out of the buy, Buffalo and Sanfran. That's tough. But then again, the rest of the season's pretty soft. Favorite in what it looks like, seven of their next 11 games, you know, after that. So like, they do have a solid stretch down the road. It's just

that like early season, they've got to come out of their 500 heading into like week eight. And I think that's like they could just be a much better team than we think at that point, just because they played so much tougher competition. Yeah. Yeah. They're fascinating. I think, like I said, the way to go about it, if you're interested, you know,

you could take the win total. I would take, you know, the plus money on the eight and a half if you're into them or, you know, the division pricing and significantly better way to approach this than the playoff price. Considering, again, we don't think this is probably a two playoff team. so what our division listen to this stretch too i'm looking at this so you get miami at new a little bit tough then you have indy carolina new orleans the jets i mean that is you can't ask for like a better five game six games stretch than stretch than that's soft yeah like i mean

and more you know was a i think talent maximizer with the rams like those some of those ram teams like way exceeded uh what the talent was so again they I think the talent is a little bit better this year on. I think they drafted really well. Two guys in the secondary in the draft that they drafted a day two, Xavier Watts from Notre Dame. Another Notre Dame safety that was awesome at football and tested poorly. That we've kind of seen that guy before.

We know Kyle Hamilton was just another like absolute dog and then just ran really poorly. And now he's like one. or two in terms of like best safeties in the league i'm not saying zavier watson is there but davy watson is really good football player uh billy bowman in the slot oklahoma like just kind of undersized but like the tape was really good like some hardcore uh tape grinders will you that you know he's just significantly better than that a little undersized but a willing run stopper like there's just there's some of these guys all of a sudden kind of emerged some they kind of just hit in this draft you know we've seen this historically you just

have a great draft and kind of flip the whole narrative around what your defense was or whatever the unit is, and this is really how they've gone after this draft. So it could be an interesting team. I think they could be, again, with this schedule, there's opportunities here for them for sure. All right, Carolina, 70s, easiest schedule. Again, this whole division, they're playing Cupcake schedules. 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, though.

65 to 1 to win the NFC. They are plus 4 and a quarter to win the division. Win total, 6 and a half, juice to the over. They are plus 280 to make the playoffs minus 320 to miss. finish significantly different than the beginning. We had clusters on every level on the defensive side of the ball of injuries, like just inability to get off the field on third down. They couldn't convert offensively in third down.

We had whispers of bust for Bryce Young, eventually gets benched. It just wasn't great. And he came back and had a little bit of juice, throwing the ball down the field a little bit more, a little bit more confidence, strong offensive line. They've invested two years in the row receiver in the first round. not two guys i don't think you love per se but at least they're trying right so um thoughts on the panthers yeah like i think their offense actually can be decent like where i mean it depends a lot

i'm thinking ted mac i think that's what he wants to be called but i'm going to keep calling him ted i thought that was a little weird his mom just like yeah you know can't call him tett why not because i said so you know that's what the answer we got from tett's mom so anyways we i think Like, if he turns out to be an alpha, then they're in a really, really good spot. So far, the connection preseason looks pretty awesome. Like, he's burning corners out there. You know, Andy Dalton under threw him on like what would have been like a 50-yard touchdown. I think he's Arbott hit or something like that in the backfield.

So, like, Tmex, he's burning corners. He's doing well. And I think Legate can be a perfect kind of Debo Samuel Comp. But then you have Coker, you have Thielen, you have Hunter Renfro, kind of all operating underneath. Like, it's a team that I think could be pretty reasonable. and Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdell is like, you know, I would say one of the more underrated backfields in the league.

Like they're not, you know, going to turn any heads or do anything crazy. But Chuba played well last year and Enrico Dowdell, I think, did as well. So both of those guys, I think, are interesting too. And like this offense, I think could be fine. Like, I don't expect them to be good. They should be like middle of the pack. I do, however, have some concerns on defense.

And I think I'll let you go on that because I think there's a lot of holes there. A lot of holes that can be worse. They gave up 3,000 rushing yards last season. wow three thousand three like three thousand fifty seven so think about how good you got to beat a run for two thousand yards as a runner right like they gave up three thousand uh again they had a ton of injuries they got to the point in like last season where they had like linebacker seven and eight were like having to make you know like starts it was bad Derek brown they lost after the first game it was abysmal but secondary is not great j c horn just does not really stayed healthy when he plays he's good I think it's going to be better, but I still don't think it's good. They don't have real winners at edge, which is a problem. Like you just can't play in the league nowadays and not have, you know, a strong, at least one guy, you know, like since he did with, you know,

Trey Hendrickson or you have to have, you know, a rotation of three guys that can be average or above average. They have kind of none. Like they've invested in like day two picks. Nick Scorning could be interesting. We'll see, but none of these guys should be expected to be massive contributors. Secondary is not great either. So again, people like the coordinator here in Evereaux, but amazing to give up like 31 and a half points per game,

which is one of the highest mark in the past 20 years and still keep your job. But you can make the case to you just had so many injuries that it's not really fair, but I'm with you. It could be an over team, a sneaky over team, because I think I'm with you. Like, this offensive line's fantastic. I think they're going to be able to run the ball. I think, you know, Rico Dowell's a nice signing for them. If Ted emerges, like you said, he kind of has to be an alpha.

But this could be a sneaky overteam because the defense just isn't up to stuff. Yeah, I did also play some out of feeling under 525, 575s we got. I'm still seeing 525 available. Like, I mean, he's just, he's old as shit. He's like 36. Like, I mean. Coakads are uniting here. Yeah, Jaylon Coker playing awesome.

And they're like kind of a one-to-one role seems like pretty much. And if you stick, if you put Thelan on the outside, I mean, it's just over. Like, there's no shot he's getting open there. And then Hunter Redfro got a ton of steam early in came. He's kind of a banged up. But I think he hasn't a chance to make the roster. Jimmy Horn, Jr., I think it is. Like, he also was like a great field stretcher at Colorado.

And so, like, I think he might have some kind of like sneaky role by that of the season. So, like, there's a lot of outs for Thelan just basically probably be like a veteran locker room presence by the end of the year, more than like a guy who's actually contributing very often. so yeah i think feeling under is still interesting i don't really know what to do with this team like you said sneaky over team like i don't know if i really want to bet their team they're like uh you know win total over anything but i think their offense might be able to keep them in some games which is kind of interesting yeah probably a week to week thing um i just don't i don't know i think that tampa and falcons are too good or at least their upside path is just significantly higher I just don't think that the upside path for the Panthers is when the division upside, right?

I just don't think even having the defense stay healthy, outperform expectations, you know, one of these edge rushers or two edge rushers emerge. I still think that they're probably like maybe at that point an eight win, maybe a nine win football team. We're talking about like top 10% dialogue comes for sure. I just don't see it. It's tough. All right. The Saints, speaking of tough situations, 30 easiest schedule in the league.

They are 401 to win the Super Bowl, 160 to win the NFC, 16 to 1 to win the division. Their win total, juice to the overt, four and a half. They are the favorites to have the worst record in the league, plus 375 on Caesars, if that's your thing. We have a quarterback battle here for Kellyn Moore, new head coach, Spencer Rattler. was a disaster last year um i mean just taking sacks like just 890 game it was just it was rough behind a good offensive line last year was a little bit rough they had some injuries and stuff but like it's a better offensive line and then tyler shut they used second round pick on who's going to be 26 in september i believe he backed up um justin herbert uh at oregon he's been around

he's played for a lot of football teams a lot he played a lot of different colleges um i saw a quote that he was just like there's nothing i haven't seen before um i've been booed i've been a backup um so like you throw some shit at me you're not going to phase me we start oh and two and i suck it's going to be fine like he's just he's kind of experienced it all already like he's a grown ass man he's an adult um so if you draft him in the second round and again there were some good can't buzz and he can't beat out Spencer rattler in camp to take the job right away and you're going to be like hey we need to see a little bit more all of a sudden like you start to get into like what is year two of of that look like you know you wasted a

valuable asset knowing you're going to just draft a quarterback again next year but saints are interesting they need to reset the clock and just kind of just get off some of these contracts that have been terrible then they spent money randomly it's like some weird positions in the offseason. So I don't know what to do with the Saints, but I know that you're interested in and fading them as much as possible, I believe. I mean, I think they're pretty clearly the worst team in the league on my, you know, by how I evaluate talent or evaluate teams. Like, and the markets don't disagree. I mean, to be clear, they are underdogs in all but one game, one and a half point favorites against the Jets at home. They are actually underdogs

in three points or less in only three other games all season. So they're underdogs of more than three points in what are we looking at, like 13 or 14 games this year, basically, total. That's a pretty tough hill to overcome, you know, on a week's week basis. Their offensive line is fine at best. Their receiving core is okay. I mean, probably maybe the best part of their team with Olavé and Shahid.

Both players have kind of struggled to stay healthy at times. They signed Juan Johnson, who's like the definition of a jag to like a longer, you know, contract. He'll be out there. Camara's like He'll be out there He'll be out there Camara's like

I mean kind of like end of his career almost seemingly end of like his like prime I guess I would say at this point He doesn't want to touch the ball that much He told Nick Underhill I think reported that like he had like 225 carries Last year in like 14 games And he wants like 175 and 17 basically

So he doesn't really want the ball that much But like Because he just knows it's like kind of a lost cause at this point and then like yeah they're having a quarterback battle between Tyler Shug and uh Spencer Rattler I mean that's that's tough there's some memes that I can point to that are probably not appropriate for this but this is just I mean these two bozos are literally I mean it's the worst quarterback room in the league and the defense is a ton of questions too like it's it's really bad like I don't know

how this is going to work I mean maybe you can convince yourself that Kell and Moore can make it happen but like can he like I mean he's been he's been like I don't know if he's about a talent maximized or he's done something he's done different stuff he's had good offenses from time to time but he's also have like good offenses with good players not like bad offenses like this this offense would need a lot of juice in my opinion yeah Dallas I mean those are good Dallas teams that look different than they do now chargers same kind of you know you had young Justin Herbert but those doubt those teams were you still had you know Keenan Allen in his prime and Mike Williams was a different player yes then you know

Philadelphia that's kind of a layup right so I think he's good. I think the offensive line can actually be good. But is that enough when you're like real playmaker wants the ball 10 times a game? That's a little tricky. Not a lot of dog. And I get it. Like if you're late stage Alvin Kamara, do I want to put 130, 230 touches on my body for a four-win football team when I maybe want to get another contract?

I mean, it's the unfortunate piece, but it's reality. I understand it a little bit. Not great, though. I wouldn't want that to be my guy. But I'm with you. The defensive side is a lot of questions. Brandon Staley in is the D.C. really young. Cornerback room. Alante Taylor's the best guy in the slot. He's got a hammy injury already. Just a ton of time last year. So it's just, you know, again, kind of Carl Grinenson's okay as an edge rusher. But, you know, not a huge, huge difference maker. Chase Young actually, I think can be better than what he, you know, got home last year in turn. arms of sack production kind of a dusty linebacker room that's not really exciting yeah they're it's just not a really good football team they're going to have trouble stopping teams and you know kellen more is going to have to play keep away offensively but i don't know what does that look like is that like i don't know it's just a lot of chrysalave not getting a concussion um and uh you know she'd staying healthy too like that's that's a tricky proposition so i think those both

those receivers can be good when they play per game basis, but I'm worried about their ability to do that long term. Yeah, and at the end of the day, it comes down to quarterback. Like, it's the most important position in all of sports. Like, you need a really, really good team to win without having a quarterback. I mean, you see very few teams do it successfully, maybe the 49ers. I mean, that's just about it. Like, no one else is very good without a quarterback, to be honest.

So, yeah, it's really tough. I played an under five and a half. That was like minus 130. We've seen minus 190. I think 4-N-F is, I mean, not my favorite play, but plus money, it's not a bad look either. Like, winning five games for this team would be a lot. I mean, that would mean that they're either they're, it would just mean to have to mean that their offense is playing way better than we think or their defense is like average and their

offense is like average as well. Like, I mean, like, or leaving like 20th or 23rd in the league instead of like almost dead last, which is I think kind of where it's headed right now, to be honest. I think that, I mean, their favorite against the Jets. I'm a big Jets hater. I think the Jets are probably a better football team than this Saints team. Yeah, I think so too. They're both stuck, but like, it's, like, I think the Jets might, the Jets are a team that

are just going to run 75 times and, like, actually dominate the Saints, I think, in that aspect. And so that's, like, a problem. Yeah, tricky parts of schedules so easy, but I mean, they're still just so bad, right? Like, there's, when you're going down any schedule review for another team and you're like, oh, saints, like, you're not, you're not expecting the Saints. that take that game from from any of those teams right you're like okay that's that's a win um you know for some of the bad teams oh miami plays the saints in week 13 like okay that's there's one of miami's wins

right like there's yeah there's no spot for for them for anyone else you're like oh well at least they get these guys it's like well i mean i don't know that's that's a little tricky like giants saints is like when they play week five giants are one and a half point favorites and the giants are way better than the saints agree like they're they got jude they got wagons up front you know know, Ross is playing fine. Maybe we see Dart there. Who knows? Like, I mean, I don't know.

Maybe I'm not making an early season bad, but I think the Giants could beat the breaks off the Saints pretty easily, to be honest. Yeah. Yeah, it's a tough start to the season, right? And mostly home games, too, which is tough. But, like, I don't know, it's not great. It's a bad football team. I like the plus 375 on Cesar's to be the worst team in the league.

Take that first pick. Maybe you can talk Arch into. to, you know, come out in the draft or, um, yeah, I don't know. And then isn't, uh, the LSU kids, uh, his dad's the OC here, right? So, you know, yeah, so they had Doug Newsmeyer's, uh, son is the LSU quarterback who's also, uh, you know, Garrett, who's one of the favorites to be the first pick. So it could be interesting, you know, just start over. Start over some.

Um, favorite bet for the division. For this division, I, I mean, I'm going to go with the Falcons. I think I picked them in my side. I did my like parlay thing as well, and we'll talk about all the division winners, but I think the Falcons are the biggest threat to unseat the bucks here at the top. Schedule is pretty easy down the stretch.

I don't think they're going to win like 12 games or anything, but maybe like 9, 10 wins and end up winning the division. The bucks win like eight, something like that. Yeah, I agree. Even like if they win 10 and Tampa wins nine, Tampa's okay. Yeah. I think the Falcons can win this division.

So I'm with you plus 240. You maybe look for alt win totals, you know, 10 plus. Some of the books have, you know, teams to win 10 plus games or something like that that would probably be the way because if you're betting on the falcons you're betting on like again penics continuing to ascend or kind of match the late season play that he did against terrible opponents but just staying healthy and then having the defense emerge i still think the pierce bet um works as well um the case to be made there is if you don't have someone like you know abdul carter for the giants like again that's a team that we like

that could be interesting, their schedule is the complete opposite, is the absolutely brutal schedule. So if Pierce and Abdul Carter have similar numbers, and then the Giants are winning five games, Pierce is finally this revelation, they finally have someone to get, you know, double-digit sacks, they get a ton of pressures, they win the division, they win 10 games, you know, these awards have a narrative element to it that we need to account for too. So that's kind of why I like the Pierce bet. And it kind of works with, in conjunction with the Falcons to win the division.

How about NFC? NFC playoffs. Give me your division winners, your wild card. And then, yeah, rock me through title game. And then who wins the NFC? So we had the Falcons. That's, you know, one of mine. Niners, NFC, Eagles, pretty much all chalk there.

And I'm going to go with the Packers over the Lions. Packers Division winner there. And then in the AFC, I'm going to go mostly chalk again in one surprise. so bills ravens chiefs and then i'm going to go with jags uh winning that division there okay i almost did the same thing i did go with houston back for was really tight like jags jags division jags right uh for wild card i thought it was viable wasn't sure so yeah same uh buffalo baltimore houston kansas city win the divisions uh i matched you on the nfc division winners uh really i think the north is so tricky with those those four football teams and i just

I don't know. I guess the bears would surprise me a little bit, not because I don't expect the bears to be solid, but just because I think the other three teams could be awesome. I don't know. It's tricky. What about your... Real quick.

I know that the bears were playing against, like, Bill's backups, but, like, it was just so refreshing to see guys, like, open. And, like, Caleb just, like, open guys, you know? Yeah. Yeah, without a doubt, I would be not surprised at all if they're, like, very, very, very competitive. So how about the wildcar teams? Yeah, I mean, I think I still have the lions making it.

Rams, I think, still to be in contention. And then the commanders as well. I was struggling with them or the Cowboys. At the end of the day, I'm just a little worried about this Cowboys defense. And then AFC, two teams, I'm going to go from the AFC West. I'm going to go Broncos Chargers. And then I'm going to go with the Aaron Rogers Steelers. Nice.

Yeah, making it happen there. So I think pretty similar to last year. honestly overall in terms of playoff teams. But, yeah, I think, I mean, both the Broncos and Chargers, I think are both a really good football team. So, like, it was tough for me to leave them out. And then the Steelers, I mean, the last AFC team, I think is kind of up for grabs, to be honest.

Yeah, last AFC team is hard. I think last for both you can make the case for, for sure. I'm with you on Denver. I'm also with you on Pittsburgh. I went with Pittsburgh as well. And I put in the Bengals, which is really hard to do because the defense could be abysmal. Um, that very much could be just like Kansas City or, I mean, uh, you know, Houston or

Jacksonville, whoever you don't have winning that division very much could take that, that seat would not surprise me at all. Pats, maybe, but I didn't do it. I thought about it. Honestly, I did. I didn't think about it. Um, but I'm with you. I mean, we both like Pittsburgh when we went through that process and like, looked at

that team and, you know, Rogers, again, like, it's not shocking to say anyone clean pocket is good like he just like we said then like he just doesn't have the secondary movements and secondary actions but like clean pocket step creates needs some uh avenues to throw to be okay the offensive line's good and they're going to be feisty defensively so uh yeah pittsburgh makes a lot of sense nfc side a little different i also matched you with the lions um Minnesota is a playoff team for me almost gave Minnesota the division to be honest I think they could be really good against a lot of faith in in j jay McCarthy we'll see And I also went with Arizona instead of the Rams.

Arizona is the last in on the wild cards on the side. So you have, I don't have Jacksonville in the playoffs. You don't have Houston because you did not give Houston one of your. Yeah. So I don't have the chargers. Where we differ is I have Houston, Cincinnati. You have Jacksonville and the chargers. And then on the end,

NFC side we differ just on the wildcard teams i have arizona you have the rams and then i have minnesota and then you had um who was your last one the commies commies yeah okay that makes that commies are almost to me in a way like the bangles you know the defense could could be so bad um although i think it's better than the bangles defense to be honest uh we'll see i don't know i'm i'm holding out it's just a preseason game and it wasn't so bad but also commie's offense is pretty good even though it looked pretty bad all right nfc uh nfc title game who's it going to be i'm going to eagles and packers okay with you the packers and i'm and i'm are you i'm gonna have the i'm gonna have the packers

winning i'm another packers beating the eagles i also have the packers winning are you serious yep we did not talk about this what that's crazy i was like i'm doing something little different here like and i i i so we talked about it in the nfc what whatever nfc West episode like I think the Niners are going to win like 14 games and then just like get boat race in a playoff game like in yeah and lose by like 30 or something like that yeah I'm with you I mean there's some again that defense is so young they need a lot of guys to step up but Green Bay again I think is the youngest team in the league like it just doesn't take much you just need they're really good last year I'm going to be really good and you

get a just a little bit of just natural growth for a handful of guys so they've drafted very well. Like there's just, it's not a stretch. It's not a hard path for them to just kind of emerge and be a little bit more consistent and really good on both sides of the ball, just like a lot of guys on both sides. So yeah, I'm with you, Green Bay. I actually have Green Bay beating the Vikings in the NFC championship game. So that's where I'm spicy. Not having Philly, not having San Francisco. I just, Minnesota's an awesome football team. Again, it's a huge question at the most important position in football. It cannot argue it. The rest of the team

is fantastic. Just believing the coaches being talent maximizers, getting the most out of Jay J.J. McCarthy and him having a pretty special year, pretty unique year. So Green Bay, Minnesota, the NFC championship game. Sorry, Eagles fans. I just have questions about your secondary right now. You've got a bunch of guys that could maybe

rush the passer, but like, I don't know, you're leaning on some young guys there, too. So there's more questions with Philly than last year for sure. So Green Bay Minnesota, how about your AFC championship game? Ravens Bills. Ravens Bills. Yeah.

Is that what you're sitting? Ravens Chiefs. Okay. Do you have the Ravens winning or no? Yeah. So we both have Ravens Packers and the fucking, do you have Ravens winning too? Yes.

I do too. Oh my gosh. All right. Well, we're bending it right now. What's exact odds of like Ravens? Yeah, I got shop this out. It should be pretty good. um let's see here i know like draft kings has some stuff like seizures i'm sure i just want to like line

shop because i think we probably find a product ridiculous price in that we nailed it last year too didn't we or you did i did right i had chiefs eagles i think yeah yeah i had chiefs um chiefs lions okay which i mean they well i guess they lost the commanders but you know yeah felt good about it heading in the playoffs but yeah yeah they looked really good i mean that's hilarious do we know if like who even has like a future's odds table you can see there's unabated out of that like where you can see like the exact odds matchup or exact matchups to price it out i don't think so i don't even know if they're uh let's see playoffs playoff special super bowl all right well fandal has exact matchups or ravens

Ravens Packers 40 on on Fandle it's 40 to 1 yep I would have I thought it was going to be way higher than that I'm not going to lie to you I did too same thing I'm looking at Ravens Vikings it's 45 to 1 we're like are we just talking now what's going on that's crazy these prices I just don't think are very good it's Fandwell I mean they pull a fast one that's 40 to 1 that's the Packers alone to win the Super Bowl like 25 aren't they like it's outrageous uh packers they haven't packages in 19 so but i mean what should we be let's open up the calculator i mean 7 to 1 and a 19 to 1 um it probably should be any more than 40 right if we yeah one was just thing well i guess that would be to win the super

ball so i guess to win the conferences would be different prices so i guess that doesn't make sense yeah that should be that should be better conference Baltimore to win the conference and Green Bay to win the conference 950 so yeah that you could so don't take the preset one it's better if you just do a two game

same like parley parley 40 but it's only 45 and change so it's not significantly better but it's better than what their preset odds are interesting you can bet on caesar's Ravens winner runner up Green Bay 70 to 1

that's better you know i mean you're picking the winner but you're still you're getting what 35 points on just yeah right um i don't think there's anything else in here but yeah it's interesting well i thought i was going to get like i don't even know 75 to 1 maybe on just that exact match i mean these are exact matches that's crazy um and it's not like the packers are massive chalk i mean i guess the ravens are they're really really good team so ravens are so good yeah I think they're the best team in the league Like on paper heading into the season

That's my I almost don't Again a little hyperbole I think it's almost not close To be honest when you look at roster top down Some questions about I mean Josh Allen's so good But I don't know Some of their playmakers

And the questions of the receiver group and stuff And I don't think the defense is quite as solid As the Ravens defense is And I like legit I don't know Again I'm grinding this stuff pretty hard the defensive side philly is messing around with what are they going to do with cooper de jean because he can play anywhere for them they literally might need him at perimeter corner because things are going

so poorly there like and he's probably fine there but like they need keely wringo they have questions at safety opposite of re-blanketship i don't know what they're going to do there some injuries they need some guys to emerge so i i don't know like they there's legit concerns in the secondary there so um you know and they're kind of on some younger guys to contribute up front compared to what they've done in the past. Yeah. Interesting. We're aligned.

We didn't plan. We didn't talk. No discussion. That's crazy. Yeah, we didn't plan at all. Both had Ravens Packers, Ravens winning. I don't know, man. I mean, I'm going to bet it just because we talked about it.

And have to have a 10 to 1. I mean, need a little skin in the game. Yeah. Got to have the ticket. Nothing worse than that. So join us, a little Ravens Packers, Super Bowl. roll parlay. I'll probably do both just to, you know, get a little 45 and then get a little 70 on

seizures. So. Yeah, I just bet the 70 right now. And then maybe I'll bet the other. What is, I wonder what is Packers to beat the Ravens? You know, that could work too, right? That's like, that's true. I don't know what the math is on that, but, you know, it's fun. Yeah, let's see.

Packers, let's see if we can do that same parlay that you didn't, see if that price is out. Oh, yeah, you can do that actually. So it's 76, almost 77 on Fandul. Okay. And then inverse and go Packers. Packers to beat the Ravens is also 70 to 1 on Caesars. I don't understand how these odds work. Make sense.

So Fandil, it's 9140. Packers to beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Oh, really? Okay. yeah yeah okay so that's better odds there yeah to cover yourself a little bit yeah i mean then you got tickets on both and you just enjoy the game and then that way you're winning a couple yeah you cash the ticket for them both getting there you know so you have you know your conference championship sweat is over now you have both sides covered you know you just bet on

taylor swift for a song and call it a day you know yeah bet on whatever grp is betting on It's going to get some good ROI. That's all I know. That's all right. Awesome. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. Again, check out Sharpstack.

We're very excited about it. I think you will be too if you haven't just kicked around. Again, it is no longer free if you just click on it, but all you need to do is start your seven-day trial. Free seven-day trial over on the site right now. Go to 444.com. You'll see it at the very top Sharpstack. You just have to have an account.

and you're off and running again I cannot wait to see that thing popping for the NFL season props sides totals arb tool really really excited the pick-em side too like again I think there's a huge edge on the pickum side if you know if you don't have access to domestics and you're just trying to pick off prize picks underdog draft kings pick six still a tool that you should be using and should be part of your you know repertoire to kind of just build the bank roll so really excited about that again move the line where we listen to podcast four four live on the YouTube channel. We appreciate it. We'll be back next week. We're going to have our friend

Ed Fang on the show. We'll talk a little bit about some future final bets, season-long props, kind of any last fires before we start previewing week one. So I appreciate it, everyone for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you on next time. Thanks everybody.