Move The Line - 2025 NFL Best Bets! | NFC West Preview

Episode Date: August 14, 2025

Discover the smartest bets for the NFC West in the upcoming NFL season! In this video, we break down the latest odds and expert predictions to help you make informed choices on where to put your money. From division winners to individual player performances, we've got you covered with insightful analysis and top betting tips. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, join us as we navigate through the competitive landscape of the NFC West and highlight the best bets to consider. Don't miss out on maximizing your potential winnings—watch now and place your bets wisely! Subscribe to the 4for4 Live! Channel for future episodes! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by 444.com. Betting subscription at 4-4 is the only resource you need to be profitable this NFL season, continuing to bring new things to the market for you. Really excited about Sharpstack. If you're not familiar with Sharpstack, it has our new suite of betting tools, top-down EV tool, Arb tool, calculators, odd screens, prop screens, all that stuff. my guy here Connor Allen is going live here on the 4-4-4-4-4-4-4-football on Twitter today

so 4-4-football on Twitter at 4-4-bets on Twitter sharing a little bit more about Sharpstack if you have not seen that yet at all. Connor, what's going on? Yeah, not too much. I think we second the last division here we got today. Yep. So, yeah, things are winding to close.

This is an interesting one. A lot of uncertainty here. So, you know, we can try our best, obviously, with, you know, some of the quarterback situations going on. But, yeah, it's feel, I feel pretty good about my takes heading to the season. Feel good about my, my bets, my best ball exposure. It's like all confirmation bias right now. But the way things are trending and the way, you got some good, good CLV.

We'll see if it's LCLV or, you know, winning CLV by the end of the season. Some good CLV for sure, without a doubt. Yeah, this is an exciting time of year. Your year is coming just a couple weeks away. I feel like having these divisional previews in the books. I feel like I know speak for you as well here. This just really helps kind of tighten up or dialing in the process for how we think about these teams, how to attack the future market, how to think creatively, whether it's through fantasy drafts and high-stakes stuff. I told you the other night, I joined the 18 team IDP-only guillotine league, which I'm all excited about that draft just started.

We're firing off all sorts of variations to find ways to expose our get exposed. to our edges that's one of them for me so again lots of different ways to skin the cat out there in the in the space in the speculative football space so uh again new youtube channel 4 4 4 live if you're watching listening in podcast form 4 4 4 live on twitter we've just brought all of our are on youtube we brought all of our 4 for 4 football content to one space on the youtube channel so subscribe there again move the line wherever you listen to podcast we're going to unpack the NFC West today. Fascinating division.

But again, if you want to hear any of our thoughts on previous divisions, you find that on podcast, podcast form or on the YouTube channel. So check it out. If you have any questions about Sharpstack, again, highly recommend jumping on the Twitter streets

with Connor later today to get an understanding of how that works. It is free right now. So you want to take advantage in dig around. You do not need a paid subscription to 4-4-4. You can just sign up with an email, get access to it, kick around, take advantage, check it out.

I highly, highly recommend you do that. Again, to have questions, let us know. All right, NFC West, again, I think it is a fascinating division that could go in a lot of different ways. Schedule-wise, you're looking at some of the easiest schedules in the league. Part of that is, from a schedule breakdown standpoint, they are playing the NFC South, which is the last one we haven't got to yet, but fairly wide open. and, you know, probably not super strong division and the AFC South. So I think you would say probably on paper the two softest divisions from a scheduling standpoint.

And then, you know, within some of the way things have broken down with some of the unique three and interdivision stuff that they get to, a couple teams get some really, really soft schedules. We'll start at the top with the team with the easiest schedule in the league by margin as well as the San Francisco 49ers. they are 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl you can get them at plus 950 to win the NFC plus 160 to win this division their win total is 10 and a half juiced to the under

playoffs minus 180 to make the playoffs plus 165 to not make the playoffs 10 and a half is a pretty sizable win total for a team that went 6 and 11 last year they actually played the most difficult schedule in the league they lost key starters for on both sides of the ball for parts of the season, all the season,

the worst special teams unit in the league, they are clear to set up for a bounce back. And then, Connor, we layer on this schedule piece here. Talk to me about the Niners. Yeah, it's one of those teams that on paper, you kind of are like, well, they're not really that good of a team,

you know, especially defensively. There's like certainly some questions. Offensive line is middle tier, you know, but they seem to make the most out of, you know, little like they don't necessarily need household names on either side of the ball to really do a lot. And so I think offensively, when you still have kiddle, you still have, you know, Juan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall is a slated to play a bigger role. Brandon Ayuk should return around week six. And then Christian McCaffrey's healthy as well. So I think this team,

given the schedule and given that they still have some offensive firepower, it will probably be, I don't know, interesting on defense, but, you know, maybe not necessarily great on a play-to-play basis, I think favored in 15 of their 17 games. They're two points that they're, there are two games that they're underdogs in, one and a half point dogs. So it's not like, like those are some crazy games. I think NFC, one seed is a viable bet. I think that 12 to 1 best record in the NFL is a viable bet.

Do I think they're the best team in the NFL? Definitely not. But they're a team that we see it every, like almost every year, every other year. You get a team that's pretty good above the average. They win a ton of games because their schedule is super easy. and then they just end up losing in the playoffs like at some point to a team it's better than them maybe that's the Eagles maybe that's the Lions maybe it's the Packers like I think they could easily be the fourth or fifth best team in the NFC but win like 13 14 15 games even just given

their schedule and like what they can do offensively so I don't know I'm kind of interested in this team and I think that like I think that they're a good regular season team but just one that's probably right for an early playoff exit probably fair yeah I mean look we don't have to determine the best team, right? We're trying to find ways to bet on them. And I think exploring avenues, like you said, you know, most wins, you know, upside on the wins, right? Just in a situation where these young bodies on the defensive side kind of coalesced and you get Robert Sala back in there. He figures it out. You stay healthy with Trent Williams. You get a full season from CMC. You know, we get this, you know, Pierceall on the other side of these injury questions.

You get Jennings signs to Kay because he's got a calf injury, right? He's just wants more money he wants the bag um you get i you back and he's kind of you know all systems go then even with some of the losses that they've had you know losing adebo samuel having some transition up front the ceiling is still pretty high as you shift into like this new version of the niners with brock purdy under a less friendly team contract and how you know the roster construction has to look because they lost a lot of the lost a lot of dudes like dray green law Talonoha Funga, both in Denver, Sherriis Ward in Indy,

Leonard Floyd's in Atlanta. They use their first five picks in the draft on defense. It looks like four of those five are going to be heavily involved, either starters or like day one rotational pieces. That's a big ask for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. They seem to be pretty happy with some of those guys. So they're going to need like, you know, Michael Walker. they love this kid.

Upton Stout, who just was kind of a surprise reach in the draft, who apparently is turning heads in camp, he's going to get the nickel job. They're going to kick de Montere-Lanour on the outside, kind of fit that ward role from last year. You kind of put on your wide receiver one. So I think it's all a big, big piece of this here, too. The upside's interesting.

Like, this is a tough division. And I will get to obviously all these teams. You make none of these teams winning the division would be surprising to me i guess maybe seattle but like i don't know like this is kind of it's kind of feisty it's kind of an interesting path now they have a huge advantage schedule-wise to the other teams where we talk about the unique three right so they're all playing a team in the um in the afc north tough division right we already did was the first one we started with well the niners get cleveland that's the easiest route in that division they all go on the road and play a team from the nfc east

the Niners get the Giants, right? So again, there's three, two and a half teams there, but the Giants are definitely the easiest path and the Niners get that. They all play a team from the NFC North. All four teams are pretty good, but the Niners draw the Bears, which is definitely, I think, one of the easier draws of that.

So all those things kind of break for them where, again, all these things kind of come together. There's a pretty exciting ceiling outcome for the Niners. Yeah, no, totally agree. And I think the salad points, a great one. I think that's under the radar. The Jets got like so bad last year after Sala left defensively and obviously he returned back to his roots with the Niners.

Like, again, it just seems like they've always had a lot of like studs and good players, but they've seemingly made the most out of a lot of weak cornerback talent and, you know, things like that. And so, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same. And just like a defense that's maybe not elite, but good. And like, even though they aren't necessarily the best team on paper. So, yeah, I'm confident that this is the team that's going to win the most games in division that's what i'll say it's not not that uh i think that they're necessarily the best team or

the best team in the nfc by any means but i think they're going to win a lot of games this year so plus 160 to win the division another path forward is again kind of thinking of it through a different lens defensive player of the year is often tied to a team that has strong performance you put up some counting stats splash plays like sacks nick bosa is a outstanding positive regression candidate off of last year he played significantly better than his sack total would show we get this team winning 11 12 football games competing for the number one scene in the nfc bosa plays really well pops up 14 15 sacks like 10 12 to 1 defensive player the year was pretty decent like don't call chalk but he's towards the top of the board pretty decent look so don't hate that at all all

all right next ramps uh in terms of strength of schedule it's uh one of the more the more harder ones in the division uh 20th so kind of middle of the pack so not super hard but comparatively a little bit harder 22 to one to win the super rule 10 to one to win the nfc they are two to one to win the division win total nine and a half juice to the over that's kind of been there for the last couple weeks even though there's been stafford news that's obviously not super encouraging. They are minus 144 to make the playoffs, plus 135 to miss. Now, the element here is the NFC is significantly more wide open than the AFC. There are paths for multiple teams and divisions like this where you could have, you know,

three playoff teams here. I wanted to be really bullish on the Rams this season. I was prepared to maybe make the case for, you know, over nine and a half wins to win the division, things like that maybe a couple weeks ago before we got to this spot. but the Stafford News is kind of a drumbeat that we can't ignore. Yeah, because if you give us a full Rams team, like you tell me, Stafford plays 17 games, the O'Line stays reasonably healthy. Like, yeah, they're going to win probably 10, 11 games.

I think they're a really good team. They have a lot of core pieces. But Stafford is just, he's such an upgrade from Jimmy G or anything else, a quarterback right now. Like, he can do things that just no one else really can for this offense, I think. And so I just have a tough time thinking that, the office succeeds too much without Stafford and like right now it seems to be I mean we can get a notification during the show that Stafford has like surgery

you know for like it needs to take eight weeks off and I wouldn't be all that surprised like or maybe even a season ending injury like that would not be surprised given what he's seen in the past we know he's been dealing with a lot of other injuries behind the scenes but I just have a tough time getting there of like wanting to back this team from a future's perspective because of that now on a week to week basis I think they could could end up having some value and their defense was like continues to surprise the last couple of years defensive line is awesome at this point uh i think and so i don't know i think that i'm looking ahead here week one there's still two and a half point favorites total is 44 and a half against the texans i think

that the texans match up very poorly against his defensive line um probably not to be able to run the ball see his drought's probably going to get a ton of pressure um like i think an under there is pretty interesting. If you give some Stafford uncertainty as well, because if he's not playing, then that total is going to plummet another couple points. So I think that's, in my mind, I would already lean under anyways on that game, just based on probably the likely flow there. And if you get a Stafford injury, I mean, you're just cooking with gas there. So I think that's kind of an interesting way to play. But obviously, offensively, too, the addition of Domante Adams is big, getting rid of Cooper Cup, who I think is pretty much washed, but we'll talk about

in a little bit. And the opposite line, still middle of the pack to above average. So again, it's good team just a lot of uncertainty a lot of uncertainty even pretend that he's going to be healthy and even then there's a little bit uncertainty because there's some questions up front we're not unusual to see especially as you get into this stage the 37 year old quarterback who's spending his time in cryogenic chambers and getting epidural shots he's a little bit reluctant to take a ton of of hits at this point i'm not saying that he's fearful he's playing scared that is definitely not matthew stafford has not been his mo throughout his career but we're starting to see a larger gap between performance in clean pocket and under pressure, which is, again,

something that is pretty common when we get into the late stage quarterback career. And now this, you know, back issue is obviously something that he would, you know, get a little bit of treatment for pregame, but still not looking to necessarily stand in there, maybe take all the hits that he would have, say, a decade ago, right? The great clip of, you know, basically playing that fourth quarter drive against the Browns with a separated shoulder. I mean, just one of the most insane baller dog things that you would ever see, especially from a quarterback, which is not always how those guys are portrayed.

So, yeah, just a little bit nervous of how that offensive line plays itself out. Devanti Adams, I think, is a great addition. Puka, while he's healthy, is absolutely elite. He just needs to stop falling on the football and, you know, getting dinged up and questionable leaving early. Like, we just need to see, you know, if he can kind of dial some of those things back a little bit. but defensively like they have they like just de-gaffed the draft or even like just f them picks for years right like that was kind of their whole memo when they've made picks they have hit at such an insane rate especially along defensive line the last few years like

it is a great young defensive front Kobe Turner Byron young in 23 Jared verse and Brendan Fisk last season they're a bit undersized up front teams have been able to run on them that's how Philly kind of dominated them in the playoffs. Puna Ford came over in Free Agency this off season. Going to play nose, big bodied, like perfect fit for what they need. I think it's an exciting, exciting defense up front. They can mask a lot of the issues on the perimeter and in the back. And when you have depth up front, that can, you know, creating pass rush from the interior

of the defensive line like Turner and Fisk can do, that's, it's really, really impactful. So, yeah, there's, look, ceiling outcomes, very easy to be like, hey, why do we doubt staff, where he's such a dog. This team is really good. And they can go ahead and win the division and they're really interesting. So just a lot of questions and concerns and hard to really attack them. I understand why people have been going after the under nine and a half because it's very, very different if we shift down to Jimmy Jean.

Yeah, I mean, the median outcome for this team is, it's tough to pin down just because, like, the range is so, so tough. It's so big. So, yeah, maybe that's the best way to play them in the future. I discussed the under in week one. I think alt-overs, all thunders. You know, I think it was whale caper who did the research, and I saw a couple other people tweet out, like, how often totals go above or below and by how much. It's like almost always two plus games either way.

I think this is a great example of a team that you could probably have both sides of, you know, over 11 and a half and under seven and a half wins and probably come out on top one way or another. Yeah, great call. Yeah, I mean, look, and if you're a believer and you think that you were going to continue to buy the dip, I mean, there are, you know, worst bats. again because knowing we know we're going to have kind of a median outcome mindsets it's really hard to be like yeah i'm going to take 10 to 1 to win the nfc like they lost in the playoffs to philadelphia by six points and gave up like 300 yards in the ground like oh yeah they were competitive right and they just absolutely boat raced a pretty good Minnesota team in the first round as well in the wild card round so solid football team that i think just got better um if

Stafford's playing. All right, next team, really fascinated with the Cardinals here. Middle of the pack schedule-wise, 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 28 to win the NFC. They are plus 450 to win this division. Win total, 8.5, juice of the over. Plus 140 to make the playoffs,

minus 150 to miss the playoffs. Tyler Murray is somewhat of an enigma at times. He has stated this during the offseason that he really wasn't healthy for most of 20. 24. His knee was bothering him a lot. He's allegedly looking to run a lot more in 2025. It's noted for early season prop opportunities for us. There's a lot of continuity in the offensive side. They just need Marvin Harrison Jr. to become a true alpha wide receiver one of the position. And they need, I guess, the better, you know, 60 to 80 percent version of

Kyler Murray based off of some of the things we've seen since he's been in the league. Yeah, they're a really tough team because Marvin Harrison Jr. if you see all the clips from like last year and like the routes that he was asked to run, there's just no layups for him. Like they're not running him underneath. They're not running them in the outside and telling him he has to win running a bunch of vertical, vertical routes and vertical breaking routes. Like it's it's really tough, you know, as a player like him who I think if you schemeed

him up, he could be awesome. But it's just like you're asking him to win like a true absolute alpha all. the time. That's, I mean, which maybe he can do. Maybe he's progressing year one to year two, but that didn't really work out all that well in year one. It was very uneven, like, wasn't all that good. And so it led to a lot of trade McBride catching seven, eight, nine, ten balls underneath the game, which is fine. But again, you don't really want that running through your offense. So I have some questions about this Cardinals offense, like as relates to that. And like I question kind of their upside as a team. And then, you know, defensively, I mean,

kind of similar. It's like they have some good players. And then overall, it's just, it's a tough unit for me to gauge. And like, I think every year there's two to three teams where I'm like, I just, I can't make a massive bull case for them. But I also don't think they're like a bad team. They have enough talent there that they're going to win a decent amount of games. But to me, they're almost like, to me, they're the anti-Rams of like they're going to win seven to nine games.

And I don't know if they ever can possibly win 10 games unless Marvin Harrison or Kyler Murray really takes the next step forward, which I don't think there's any really reasons. to believe that, but I don't know, maybe you can sell me on something else. I just don't see a ton of upside of this team, but I also think that they're decent. They're going to win some games they shouldn't and probably hang around most of them. I mean, to your point, like, there's so much pressure on getting a good version of Kyler and getting elite play from Marvin Harrison, Jr.

Because when you're looking at Michael Wilson and Greg Dorch and Zay Jones, like in terms of offensive playmakers, you know, like every year we're waiting for like the wheels to fall off of James Connor that doesn't happen plays pretty well it's going to be there that trey benson kind of comes in and it's like marie d macarno's kind of thing like who knows like there's just not a lot of exciting ceiling level playmakers unless things get a lot easier for everyone else around it when Harrison becomes the guy so that really is i think where the handicap is on this team i think they're going to be surprisingly really good defensively okay they have I've had almost zero pass rush in the last couple of years.

They have a ton of turnover, a lot of new faces defensively. But I think they have, I think Nick Rales is a pretty good defensive coordinator. I mean, again, John the Gagnon is the head coach. He's a defensive coordinator. It's kind of his defense here too. But I think there's a lot of pieces here that allows them to be multiple in a lot of different ways. And that's even if they don't really get much of anything out of Walter Nolan. or Will Johnson in the draft for first two picks.

And I think Walter Nolan can be awesome. But like, they just have some guys. Like, I don't know. I think Gary Williams is one of the best slot corners in the league. You probably don't know about like he's really good. He can play outside. They might kick him there a little bit more. They have three really good safeties that you can bring all of them into the box

and do different things. There's like depth of linebacker. There's no like great linebacker. but like you'll see probably a lot of single linebacker sets from them because they're going to use three safeties a lot in a nickel look with you know Williams on the fields they got some dogs up front finally like they brought in Josh Sweat who had his best year by far under again when they were together in Philly

Clay's Campbell dialed like turn back the clock last year who was awesome in Miami he's back in Arizona hoping to kind of bring back a little bit of their stuff they didn't get anything out of Darius Robertson their first round pick last year who was injured he can play and kind of come back there's some guys here defense i think they could be really annoying to play not necessarily like minnesota because i think they'll do it a little different but they can really they got the dogs to scheme up things and not be really vanilla on defense so i think they could be kind of annoying to play so again it doesn't matter if if they don't

have any sealing outcome offensively but i think the defense can be feisty that's yeah that's notable and their schedule sets up really nicely in the front half like they they could be a team team we see this every year too it's like a team of like two to have before the buy they're favored in five of their seven games before their week or six weeks are soft i mean at new orleans carolina sam fran they are an underdog but seattle tennessee indy green bay only one and a half point dogs is home like it's i mean they can win if five and two is not that crazy four and three i think is like a very reasonable range outcomes and then they are underdogs in all but two games after buy which there's winnable games in there there are winnable games even though as

underdogs but it's a little bit tougher so they're flipping these kind of these short favorite games to like kind of short dog uh games after the buy so yeah like their team that i think is probably gonna start hot james connor's probably gonna have an awesome start of the year like you said the defense can probably keep some of these teams at bay especially new orleans in week one um you know i'm drafting cardinals defense as a streamer in fantasy you know on the last round if anyone's interested there like i think it's like just a very much an under game uh in week one as well against at New Orleans but yeah I just like I again the offensive ceiling like until they have player like I could if you told me two years ago maybe Kyler Murray takes the next step we've been

saying that but I mean what year are we even in at this point like yeah it's been 84 years a long it's been so long it feels like in Kaler Murray I mean he's not just not the young buck and we're all like oh maybe this is the year they take a step where maybe this is the year he's just been slightly above average for a while Yeah, I'm interesting to see if he starts to run more. I'm talking about that and saying, hey, I want to run more. I thought I was a missing part of our offense last year. My knee was a problem more than I was letting on.

So we'll see. Again, maybe that gives another look that they were kind of missing a little bit last year because I think that's really for me where this handicap for this team comes down to is can we see anything that looks like a competitive playoff ceiling type of offense and it's just a lot of pressure on two guys, really. You know, your tight end and your perimeter corner are your perimeter receiver because there's continuity along the offensive line. Yeah, I mean, the bull case for the defense.

So they're interesting. You might be right. They might kind of be in the middle. They might not be a double-digit win season here. But unless they have just a ton of injuries, I think they're going to find ways to the defense could win some football games for them, which is something we haven't seen in Arizona. in quite a while yeah good point all right ceil last one middle the pack again 13 strength of

schedule 70 to 1 to win the super bowl they are 33 to 1 to win the nfc plus 575 is the best number on the division win total 7 and a half juice of the over is out there 8 and a half juice under so depending on where you're shopping uh depending on where your lean is there's some opportunities there plus 186 to make the playoffs they are minus 200 to miss the playoffs extremely bullish last year on Seattle, mostly because I think we have a pretty solid sample of Mike McDonald being an excellent coach, in-game adjuster. That showed up in the first season in Seattle, 10 and 7, despite one of the most injury-riddled offensive lines in the league.

I'm not sure how much better it's going to be this season. Hopefully they can keep guys healthy. They added, you know, Grace Zabel in the draft. Sam Donald, a little bit more, I think, dependent on Clean Pocket than what we saw. all last year, but Gino Smith, we'll see how that works out here. Talk to me about Seattle. Yeah, I think we can project the defense be pretty good. And I think they're going to win some games, but I really worry about this offense. I mean, I'm very worried because you go from Gino, who I think has been one of the more above average quarterbacks

for a long time at this point. And like all the film nerds love him, like the way that is placed in everything. He's a good, good thrower of the football. Like, Gino Smith is a good quarterback, not an elite quarterback, just like a solid middle of the road quarterback. Sam Donald has been awful throughout his career until last year of Minnesota, paired with KOC, really struggles under pressure, struggles in big games, was great when KOC scheme the world for him was awful in most other situations with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson. You now have him in a situation behind a, and that was top five, top 10 offensive line in Minnesota. He's now behind a bottom three to bottom five offensive line in Seattle

with Jackson Smith and Jigbo, I think is good, but primarily at a super low eight out last year was, like, I think can play on the outside, can't play on the slot, so that's fine, gets Cooper Cup, who is just booted off for nothing after being like a Rams through-and-through guy, you know, has been injured and not really played all that well the last two years.

I think that he was probably one of the worst signings of the off-season for what they signed him to, and also plays almost entirely in the slot. Any route that Cooper Cup is running on the outside is a wasted route. Like you can, you don't even have to cover the guy. He's like, you know,

late season, late career, Devante Parker at this point. And so, yeah. And then we have MBS or I like Tori Horton. I think Tori Orden can be interesting, but he's like a,

I don't know, mid, late round rookie. Like, he can be good and not be an above replacement level player at this point, you know, in his career, you know,

good in air quotes. So, and then I wonder about the running game. Like, I know that there's all to talk about the zone scheme from Clint Kubiak and like what he's bringing over. He obviously got, got a lot of buzz last year and then that kind of, you know, took a downturn pretty quickly.

Is it possible to have a good running game? Sure. But I mean, you got Kenneth Walker already dinged up and whatever injured. Zach Sharbon, I think is decent, but like ideally they would trade him for something at some point or he's a good backup and can be used. But like, I just don't, I think this offense can be a total mess. Like I worry that the floor and they're going to have some fine games, there are going to be some games where they score like 10 points and it's going to be a total mess. It's like a more extreme version of Arizona, in a sense. This is the top 10 defense. There is depth on all three levels.

There are playmakers on all three levels. We have seen this every season, basically with Mike McDonald in the NFL, thought in Michigan. His teams on third down, red zone, they find ways to win. They find ways to get off the fields. They've got to be better on early downs. It's hard to be and sustain, like, third down success year after year. he seems to have found something though we've again a pretty sizable sample of him doing that

i think he's a great coach but you made you know great points like they we saw like two weeks of clint kubiak last year in new orleans and everyone's like what the hell is this guy he's like gonna be you know minus 500 to be the next head coach and then like they did have injuries but that fell off very quickly and maybe there's something there maybe he learned from that maybe he can dialed up some skill position players can be better but to your point maybe not If Cooper Cup is completely washed and dusty, that's because it's going to be really hard. We know what MVS is.

Like, we've seen that show. I don't need to see it again, but they need him to be in the mix. Candle Walker, there's questions, as you said. So, yeah, it's just, it's really volatile, you know, like Sam Darnel played well

when they had Christian Darrasol last year before the middle of the interior of that offensive line fell apart. When it fell apart, they were just not competitive, like really hard to. get off the ground. And to your point, significantly better offensive weapons there last year. So again, we know defensive play significantly less stable year of year. And even though I think

this is a without a doubt top 10 defense, I think it's really hard when you have to play in short fields or you know, you're gassed after a long drive. You held up on third down after a 10 play drive. Then your quarterback gets stripped two plays in the next offensive line drive and you've got to go back out there. Like those things start to add up and become really hard for defenses to prop themselves up. So I don't know what the ceiling outcome is for this team. There's a lot of redundancy. I like JSN, but see like an alpha wide receiver one, elevate your team to the playoffs, kind of a difference maker. I don't know. I'm not sure that we're there yet. I'm not sure that that's like it's a big ask for like a smallish interior slot winner, like a Amon Ra.

That's his path. That's tough. Of those guys. And then again, you're just like, you're donating Cooper Cup to the outside corner. Like, you're literally like, I mean, it's just not going to win that often out there anymore at this point in his career. Like, ideally Cooper Cup is a slot guy, sits in zones, which I think you can do at this point pretty well. But still, but I, yeah, I have a lot of questions there. And Donald, too, is a guy that, like, I don't know if Donald can necessarily win games.

I think he can be like a Jared Gough-esque like of, like, you know, be a good game manager and makes some tough throws occasionally, but he can definitely lose you games. He can absolutely lose you games. And that's, I think, a problem here for this team that, again, they're going to play great defense. They're going to be out there. But like when you're playing, especially the first couple weeks, San Fran and Pittsburgh and Arizona in week four, like, it's just tough matches for offensive line.

It's tough matchups for like your team right off the bat where they're just going to be some low, grind out games. And it's going to come down to Can Darnold play turnover, not even free. I mean, he's like, he's got to be like minus 200 to throw an interception. like every one of those games at this point. But, I mean, ideally, I think the Seahawks want to run the ball. I mean, that's, like, kind of what their path is they want to just run the ball and, like, mitigate that risk.

And I think they're probably going to find that out pretty quickly in some of these games. So it's just something to keep an eye out for it because I think the floor for this team on a week-to-week basis, especially if they fall behind. We talk about this other teams. This is, like, the ultimate you fall behind team and you're might be in rough shape offensively there. I'm looking about the best ball, bro, play a bunch. You know, I'm not doing the streams for us. You're holding down the forefront of us there.

Yep. We're just banging Jamie Milro at the end of every draft. You know what? I initially was, and then I heard maybe Silver or someone else go about it. Like the contract for Darnold is like three years, two of one and a half of which are guaranteed. So if they give up on Darnold this season, it's like they have a full year basically of paying him guaranteed money.

It's like $40 million collectively they can get out after one year. It's not awesome. Maybe it's worth of them. I mean, I think the downside outcome is there. I'm not sold on San Donald after one year with Kevin O'Connell. Like, that's not, and, you know, Justin Jefferson and a great offensive line. Like, I just, I can't be in after we saw five years of him just being completely awful, basically. Four years plus a good backup year with San Fran.

There it was. So you get an offensive line that's more comfortable run blocking and you want to run the football. And you got a limited pass catcher or limited passer. but who could be, I don't know, Anthony Richardson-esque on the ground, like size speed freak combo, just like, hey, let's lean into it, let's shorten these games. Our defense is going to hold up and do their thing. Let's not make a bunch of mistakes. Let's just kick it old school and run the football.

I think he's interesting. I think he's fascinating. So when you make these like one-year deals with cash in the back end, like, I don't know, like, why don't you see what you have, especially, you know, late in the year, and you're like, hey, we know we're not moving forward with this. Let's just give it a shot. And all of a sudden, you know, you're going to get five, six starts from Jalen Monroe late in the season.

Could be interesting. Yeah. And, I mean, they have a lighter schedule, like, kind of later a little bit. I mean, they're, again, dogs in five of their first six games, basically, before the buy, and then Houston small favorites. But there, again, another tight team, like Arizona, a lot of very, like, narrow distributions with the spreads here and the look-head because I think they kind of just, like, I mean, they're relatively middle of the pack team, but if their offense, you know, flames out,

they can easily lose basically any game, but their defense could also probably help them win any game if their running game is clicking too. So it's a really tough team for me to handicap. Like my initial lean under eight and a half wins, I think it's kind of interesting. I know they just won 10, but I think this offense could be a good bit worse after just given all the changes. So I would lean under eight and a half wins, but yeah, again, like I just, I would be very surprised at this point if this offense ends up being like really good yeah you know the um i think it was cleave t a had there were two and seven last year against playoff teams the two wins were week one bonix debut and week week 18 against the rams backups um so oh and seven

technically full board against playoff teams last year so there's some there's some regression variance in the win total with like you know some of those adjusted you know blended fourth quarter win percentages and things like that so yeah they won 10 and again like I love this defense I think it's going to be fun watch they could be awesome but I think they're still probably comfortably the fourth team in this division tough for me to get to the ceiling outcomes on the offensive side that are going to be required to push them into you know especially where we're talking about what a healthy ramp team can look like and then a healthy the Niners team, especially with the Niners schedule.

So a tough one for me. I'm going to like watching them, though. That could be a lot of fun and annoying. It could be some unders. Yeah, it'll be fun for you on the defensive side. It'll be fun for me to root against whatever poor quarterback they're playing against. And that's going to be, you know, struggling. And I don't know, man.

I like, the more that I think about this team, I'm like, why? I know Kenneth Walker is kind of a dog, but he's always injured and this old line sucks. And, like, the offense could suck. do you really want a guy like that like drafting a guy in fantasy and you really want to be betting on any futures on this guy probably not like he was one of my favorite i did like betting kenneth walker alts because he's like one of the guys who ended up with like you know 30 yards or like 120 you know so i do love his alts but yeah his median and his and his like average is just like wild it's all all over the place yeah that's why i like him in the longest rush market but i'm never

taking his rushing yards over because i don't know he's going to play the entire game we could pop on any of the carries that he gets you know just get you that splash play so yeah tough one defense will be fun challenging path for them moving forward so all right one more left buddy that's all we got also want to tell folks before we wrap you find more information in the show notes here we have a new survivor pool uh launching if you head over to splash sports um i'm not sure if it's going to be probably on the home page or something when you open the app pretty quickly here you'll see four for four survivor experience 500,000 to the top simple simple survivor no unique rules right Connor not missing anything no $50 yeah pick one team uh fill that bad boy

you know again 500K just for picking a winner every week not against the spread just straight survivor um again more information the show notes head over to splash sports Check that out, 444.com Survivor experience over there at Splash. I mean, I'm in it. I joined. I mean, is it too early to talk about overlay? No, I'm just kidding. We launched it like 10 minutes ago.

But, you know, I'm one of the things. One of the overlay right now. It's a brand new. Overlay projected. $500K to the winner, just $50 entry. I might pop a couple of these suckers. I am bad at Survivor, too. So probably donating.

But, you know, you won't win 500K if you don't play. That's a great point. 50 bucks. Facts. Yeah. Let me try to turn 50 and a 500k playing DFS. Good luck. Yeah, good luck.

A better shot, too, of doing that through a pick and pull. So get in there, share with friends and family. Love to fill that and do more cool stuff with their friends over at Splash Sports. So again, information, links should all be here on the 4-4-4-live YouTube channel or move the line if you listen to the podcast, Apple, Spotify. all those things. Subscribe to all the channels so you don't miss the show. All we have left is the NFC West. We'll probably have some props and then bam, week one. So really excited. Don't forget at 4-4-4 football on Twitter, at 4-4-bets on Twitter. Again, this afternoon, Wednesday afternoon, you'll be able to find Connor deep diving our Sharpstack EV tool going

through that, picking off some soft WMBA lines through some stolen base or home run bets there it's a new tool again if you have not heard check it out for free connor will have more information on that later this afternoon so that wraps us today for connor i'm ryan we'll see all next time thanks everybody