Move The Line - 2026 NFL Preseason Injuries Shaking Betting Markets

Episode Date: August 19, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen react to the latest major injuries from around the NFL preseason and assess their impact from a betting perspective. They discuss which absences could meaningfully change team expectations, win totals, futures prices, and other markets as the regular season approaches. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Circa Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contests Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circus Sports. Ryan Noonan joined here as always by Connor Allen. We are three weeks away from real life NFL football. If we can get there, Connor, because every time we take a day or two off, we lose key contributors from a handful of teams. We're going to go through that again today. How are we doing? Yeah, it's crazy.

And when we started thinking about how we were going to plan out this off season, I don't think either of us anticipated having to talk about five to ten new injuries per week that could be impactful fantasy betting props all across the board so i think a ton to get into yeah it's trickle down effect into the future markets uh wind totals all that stuff if you want to get our thoughts on some of that stuff uh move the line wherever we listen to podcasts move the line here on youtube you can find uh all of our divisional previews we've gone through win totals futures markets all that stuff awards uh if you want to dabble into some of that stuff those are in past episodes you can find all that there in the

Show notes too, along with some of the offerings from our friends over at Circa, we're just the one week away from the Circa weekend. We'll have boots in the ground out there in Vegas. But, Connor, you want to tell the listeners about what Circa has to offer this year? Yeah, if you're going to be out in Vegas at any time before the NFL season, definitely have to register for Circa. They have Circa Survivor, Circa millions, both are $1,000 entries, neither have any rake.

Both are just generally good contests with good payout structures, $30 million plus guaranteed right now. So, you know, there could be some overlay based on where we're sitting right now. I think it's going to be an awesome weekend. So we'll be out there next weekend for event entry weekend, doing some shows, hanging out. If you're listening to the show, definitely come hang around and say what's up. But, you know, we are, and we're going to be finding some entries and talking about it, circa millions, picked five against a spread each week. It'll be definitely see us in those streets there. We got to catch Andy after he won one of the quarterly payout contests last year. So we got to work.

cut out for us. Yeah, definitely. When I get, you know, get some of the good osmosis by being in close quarters, breaking bread while we're there with Andy. See we can get some of that good Vegas juju. You know, spent a lot of time in Vegas the last, you know, calendar year or so. You know, some people like to do these like two, three day Vegas trips. No, no, no, no, no. No, Mr. Molitor, you know, likes to take these two-week Vegas vacations. So, you know, knows the good places. Hopefully we will do some deep-time. I've crossover while we're out there too. All right, even before we started today, Connor,

we're trying to put this show together. What can we talk about? These injuries keep in pile up. We'll get another one. This time on the Texans with Jaden Higgins being lost due to an ACL injury. A player that I like quite a bit. I thought it was ascending nicely and it was set for a real nice role. It's now part of, I guess, I don't know, who's really healthy.

At Houston Pass Catching Corps right now, it's kind of a mess. We start there with the end. impact on Higgins and how this will affect the passing game and maybe any of your thoughts if it has any big picture trickle-down effect to the Texans overall. Yeah, I do think it's a big problem for them because by most accounts, he was one of their most impressive receivers in camp. Somebody even went as far as to say is the most impressive receiver in camp. Maybe that's relative to expectations.

You know, obviously, I think Nico is still going to be the alpha. But Higgins came on late last year, played really well and then was crushing it this off season. Now it goes down out for the season. So behind him, you're looking at Xavier Hutchinson probably going to soak up some routes because Tank Dowell is still returning from injury, still not full go. Week one in doubt. Jalen Knoll came back, I think today actually. But he's, again, been mostly a slot guy, mostly like a smaller slot receiver.

And I think he's good. It's still going to play in 11. Does he play in 12 personnel? Or does Xavier Hutchinson, who they love is a great blocker, just plays a lot. I think that might be the case. So we were talking pre-show. I don't love the Stroud under, but it's certainly a strong lean right now because it's just him and Nico at this point.

You know, the defense is awesome. They signed David Montgomery. They very clearly want to commit to the running game here. I think we'll probably be more successful with that. And so I just don't know how many negative game scripts they're going to face. So it basically just relies on C. G.J. Stroud being really efficient. We're looking at like 35, 50 is the number.

I know you were right around there to begin with prior to updating for Higgins. I'm sure it'll go down a little bit. But I don't know. Any thoughts on that prop? Because my initial instinct was just a fire, but then I think the number might still just be a little bit too close. Yeah, like you said, I was 20 yards off, but I've not made any adjustments.

And I think your big picture thing there is important. I just think it's a shift in overall pass rate, especially with a strong defense because we have these thinning target trees. Like it's going to be really hard to, I'm already a little bit over on Nico. and I just have to distribute a ton of targets to a very questionable secondary pass catcher core outside of NICO. So the David Montgomery rushing overs, the NICO ceiling outcomes, like, again, I know I think we both kind of agree, you know, chasing big receiver lines like this in the prop market on season long props is not, I think, a market that we love to attack. And, you know, Nico has not been a picture of health throughout the entirety of his career as well.

But like sealing outcomes for Nico, Nico week one, week two type stuff, you know, the target share is going to be monstrous for him. So trying to find some alts there or, you know, David Montgomery stuff is also quite interesting. So I do think just from a team level, it probably is a little bit high. I do think we'll see just overall pass rate have to come down. Efficiency will come down and that will definitely drag. Stroud under where that current number is. So big picture, though, in the Texans, I still don't think there's any, like, systemic risk to this hurting the team

and I think my overall outcome for them. But, you know, probably some unders on Stroud, I do think, or better than, I think, what our numbers look like right now. Yeah, that's, it's tough. I think we're, I don't, not make any, like, big team impacts, like, to your point, but I think player level definitely stuff matters a lot. Nico just looked it up. He's a minus 300.

to have a thousand receiving yards only plus 120 to have 1250 i mean that's just not really bettable i don't think uh yeah yeah that's not even that's not great i mean 1500 yards is only three to one uh i mean that's like an awesome sealing outcome type season for him uh or at least trending that way and i again i just don't think you're getting enough freezer yeah unlike you know, 80% of the routes, uh, as is. I, and I've tried to drag him down to, I have him at like 1160, which feels way too many. Uh, it feels like way too. Like it's just that projection. I just keep seeing it. I'm like, I don't want to bring that down. I don't know where to put these, I don't know where to put these targets. I don't know where to put these routes. So I think

the Stroud under thing becomes more of a of a piece here where it's like it just had to kind of change the big picture math of, of the allocation of, you know, how they're running. place because it's it gets tough i want to buy low on some jalen knolls stuff i think he could be i he might not play as much as zavier hutchinson but i think he's going to be a good target earner uh when he is out there so that would be that's my inclination here i'm interested to see what his like early season prop numbers are posted at and things like that because i think he could be a pretty big value depending on where they post him yeah it's a good call um yeah because the math equation right like we can just easily you got to cross them now we got to read just

It's got to get redistributed somewhere. Now, again, I think your point is the correct one, is that the pie that we're redistributing just gets smaller. And then that kind of drags Stroud down on the whole. The other bigger one, I guess, in the last, I mean, there's a bunch, and then I'll kick you to you after this one. But I think the saint situation, you know, with Jordan Tyson, you know, this is the makeup of Jordan Tyson in college.

This is a struggle for him to stay healthy too. camp stuff had been really, really promising. A team that I think has an arrow up that we were both consistently ringing the bell anytime we were doing anything NFC South, NFC, wind totals, you know, different like, you know, worst or first type scenarios. We've been very pro saints. Here's another situation where there's some redistribution in terms of what we're doing without probably at least a month of Jordan Tyson.

We also have Chris Olive maybe dealing with awesome injuries. We have Alvin Kamara, who's going to be a big player in the past game, at least I think a little bit of a player in the past game. So is it a Tyler Shutt under that we need to be looking at or what are your thoughts on how things are going in New Orleans? He played so well at the last year. I struggled with that a little bit. But, yeah, I mean, we're looking at similar to the Texans.

This means Devon Valet is going to slide into wide receiver two. And rookies, Bryce Lance made Berrien Brown. We'll probably get some run early in the season. Tyson is out. And yeah, the problem is, too, is Tyson's going to miss two months from today. So that's like, again, like you said, like a monthish into the season.

But when he comes back, they're not going to just going to throw him back in 100% he's going to be cooking. It's going to be probably a couple weeks. So you're looking at basically half the season, essentially week eight or week by something like that. So like I think it's week eight and then could come back week nine. So again,

that's half of the missed season already. Really tough. Yeah. struggle with that a lot. I do think otherwise rookie receiving markets are pretty interesting. So like most rookie receiving yards, Deshawn's stribling is like still six or seven to one is not bad. It's basically just him or Carnal Tate at this point. It seems like, um, the Cleveland guys are interesting. I mean, it's, you're hitting your wagon to a pretty dicey quarterback room. But like we were trying to go through and do some of the math there. We both are a little bit down on Jerry

Judy. Jerry Judy seems to be going to be used in. more of a, I don't know, field stretcher, inefficient, just not a lot of layups for him. It seems like like those are going to go to Casey Concepcion, but like Denzel Boston stuff's been really positive. But definitely changes the dynamics of the market, though, because Tyson was that, you know, I think pretty strongly towards the top of that board, deservedly so. Yep. Yeah.

So I think this impacts the Saints a lot. I'm worried about this for their offense, a good bit. I just thought, I thought that there was a reasonable chance that, Tyson overtook Olave by the end of the year as like their number one wide receiver. I like him. I like him too. I thought he was a clear wide receiver one in the class. I just understood why he would slip a little bit because the injury thing is real.

It wasn't like occasionally. It wasn't like always a one-off thing when this type of like random bone break or whatever. It was like just soft tissue, hamstrings, groins, that type of stuff that we kind of hate to see a lot. So I think DeFon DeFle is pretty good, to be honest. We'll see. The camp stuff on Barry and Browns are pretty positive. Bryce Lance feels like a field stretcher type, so I'm not sure that I'm in love with him.

But this is another situation where the distribution of targets kind of changes. I think really good probably for Joanne Johnson stock. Because I think he's fairly safe, even with an Oscar Delp rolled in there. I know we've had a few, like, rookie tight ends the last few years pop. Historically, it's been a tough position to come in and hit the ground running in the first year. So I don't think we should expect every rookie tight end to come in and hit the ground running. And Joanne Johnson, when he doesn't drop the football, it would be pretty good, pretty dynamic after the catch piece too.

So probably good for Travis A-TN or Travis A-Chane. I don't know. I think we'll probably just have to do both every time we have to. Yeah. But, yeah, it's not a market. it that I'm looking to dive into, but it does probably hurt some of the ceiling stuff of just the chain mover, just the, I think the stuff that I think Tyson was going to win at, intermediate, first downs, keeping them on the fields, efficiency type stuff.

I think that's definitely a ding to the offense as the whole. I think Velae is a pretty interesting prop guy early on the season. Weeks, the last, what, five weeks of the season, he started playing 80 plus percent of the snaps. First week, he only had 15 yards. Then it was 37, 93, 40, 69 yards. on 7, 8, 5, 6 targets the last couple weeks of the season. So, I mean, the situation is not all too dissimilar from what he's in currently,

which is basically him in Oliva. And some interesting matchups. I mean, Lions Week 1, I don't think that's terrible. You know, again, I'm not going to bring like alts, but maybe. I mean, I don't know. Are they going to post them in the low 30s? Then maybe, you know, that could be. Maybe my guess would be low 30s.

Yeah. Which is probably too low for that matchup. for his role so i don't know we'll see i'm interested yeah i happen to begin the clock in two different uh you know late round scenario ffpc drafts yesterday and i snatched melee uh right away right away just going all right else you got uh do you want to touch on today that's i mean there's a there's a mountain of stuff yeah i think another one that's really important is tyler beatish charger center uh carted off i think he's done that was the latest news done because we've talked about it.

I think that was the core of our Chargers preview was if the Chargers Offensil Line is healthy, they can be so multiple with a new coaching staff with everything there, but that just hasn't been the case. And Rishon Slater still not playing Patelor Tendon flare-up. And so you have a starting left tackle, starting center now out, really tough. And again, we're training towards the wrong direction here with the Chargers and what we're going to do with this offensive line. Yeah, it's not great.

Amarion Hympton apparently look pretty good in camp. But center is important. Like, yeah, it's not, you know, oftentimes like the captain, or he's, you know, kind of calling, you know, you're blocking shifts at the front. You know, you spend the money and invest in a big free agent like that. You want him to kind of solidify the middle of that offensive line. It impacts them.

It's hard to make a straight line of, like, where it hurts. It just kind of hurts a little bit everywhere when these types of things happen. You peel from depth elsewhere and just, if they can not spiral. That's the problem that we've had with the charges the last few years is that you get one and it's like, these things happen in threes. And like all of a sudden,

in the course of a week, they lost three starters. So hopefully the Chargers, it doesn't become more. So any like specific player stuff that you think are impacted by this? Does it impact the running game? Does it impact, you know,

continue to stack numbers or Justin Herbert? No, I think for me it just creates more concern about like the potential for cluster injuries like we're getting there you know we're leaning towards that if slater doesn't play and we get anything else at that point i think it's a cluster injury and that's a disaster again we're trying towards that wrong direction which obviously does have a prop triple down but how mike mcdaniel handles that is really interesting in the past he's handled it with two or just having like a super short quick game as extension of the running game and outside zones and that's basically it

that was all they're able to run because the offensive line sucked so bad part of it was too too who couldn't throw it very far but if you don't have an office line it doesn't even matter so it's you know again, it was a chicken and egg, both might have been the problem to me out. So I think that, yeah, it's kind of a wait-and-seave thing for me, but definitely some concern. Speaking cluster injuries, let's talk about the San Francisco 49ers. Been clustering all off-season. And now basically, everyone's tight. There's tightness everywhere.

I was just tight. I'm tight here, tight hammies. Everyone's fine. The game was tomorrow. Everyone's fine. But this is what happens historically with CMC. And now we're having Mike Evans, tightness. It's a tough situation.

Anything that we want to make docs on in the Niners with discontinued string of tightness and injuries. Yeah, I mean, the worry and the problem is that two years ago, when CMC sat out for a chunk of the season, there was, quote, no concern. It was fine. It's okay. And then it was like, oh, yeah, she's out for a long-ass time.

So that's a big problem. I don't really like to listen. what they're saying. So like the range of outcomes for these guys is massive with these injuries. So yeah, definitely some concern. I think Deshaun Stribling is a great target. I think, I mean, again, 33rd overall pick just because he was a reach in the drafts community doesn't necessarily mean that he's not a good pick in fantasy or betting markets. Like he could realistically be their number two target earner immediately, you know, and that wouldn't be a lot surprising based on camp reports. So I think that he's pretty interesting in prop markets and fantasy.

Kittle looks like he's going to come back. I would guess week two. I don't think he's going to make the trip to Australia. I don't think. But he could. If he makes a trip, he's going to play. That's basically what they said. So everyone's injured, but no one's injured.

So I don't know, proceed with caution. It's what we talked about with the Niners. If everyone's healthy, they're top tier team. If they're not, the floor is pretty low for this team. I think we're going to see a bunch of DeMarcus Robinson. Yeah, I saw that too. Like on the field? Yeah.

Right. It could just be like, you know, he's going to be a perfect guy for you if we can get a DeMarcus Robinson line, right? He's going to be out there running wind sprints. Yeah. We're running, you know, 25, 30 routes, but maybe earning, you know, 5% of the targets, which is a perfect Connor Allen under special. He's out there all the time.

You have to sweat the fact that he doesn't leave the field, but no one's looking his way. Yeah, it's just a tough spot. Like, I think we're, we have some liens on Debo. but it gets a little bit tougher in terms of distribution of what's going on there if Mike Evans is really hurt. We're hearing about Debo, you're seeing more work in the backfields because they are worried about McCaffrey. We know we've seen Debo in the backfield before, right? This hearing targets from a running back alignment. That probably hurts his yards more than hurts his reception.

So there's a lot of unknown right here that I would like to take advantage of in the prop market on the Niners. But I just, I don't know. I don't know what to do with it yet. I don't know what the right way to do it is. I hope that they just post everything early for week one. And then we can kind of like get it on some action based on how things are shaking out. Because I do agree. Like if if Evans is healthy and CMC's a little bit dinged up, you know, Debo's yardage unders and week one are probably great, you know,

because if he does see any targets, it's probably going to be like a, you know, three yard little out, you know, from the backfield or something like that. But vice versa, then maybe he sees more yards than not as many targets. I don't know. Again, there's like a lot of different ways this could play out. but I think we're in a good position to capitalize on that if they post the numbers, which I think they will. I think they're just going to post median numbers and go for it.

Yeah, often is the case early in the season too. So, yeah. I got, yeah, you want to buzz through like six more here. I mean, we got Jeremiah Love, high ankle sprain, out the rest of preseason, week one on doubt, like in doubt. I mean, what is that? Disasters. I mean, 14 touches, 72 yards in the preseason.

injured for absolutely nothing. This is just a complete and utter mistake by this organization, like top to bottom. This is such a joke. Yeah, I mean, I don't know enough about a little floor to know that he's not a donkey, but if you want us to not think that you are, you don't do this. Very, very, very, very questionable. A little upside.

And, yeah, you got to reap what you so in this scenario. which is a bummer. I like the player a lot. I think he's like incredible to watch Notre Dame, incredibly dynamic, makes people miss, ball and his hand in space. He's a lot of fun.

I think it would be a challenge for him in year one to begin with. But again, it's also a high ankle. And like, yeah, might be back, but also like might linger

because these things tend to linger. Yeah. It could be half the season. Like it could linger throughout the season and then all of a sudden we see a random efficiency jump. Or we just don't. That's also like,

we've never seen this guy playing the NFL. We have no idea what that even looks like. So, yeah, really, really brutal outcome there. I think we see more Tyler Alger early in the season especially. But the problem is there's such big underdogs that, like, you know, you're really not banking on much there. As soon as they fall behind, they're going to need to throw in someone else. They can catch a little bit more passes, which I think is Jeremiah Love.

He's not playing. Is it James Connor? Is it Trey Benson? All of them are kind of injured, too. Yeah. And then, like, it looks like Kendrick Bourne's going to be out there a bunch, too. That's your other, you know, wind sprint guy that maybe we can, attack at some point but um yeah it's it's rough it's rough in arizona um it just really really

surprising and unfortunate because like you said it's an efficiency thing like i docked obviously his playing time but i just i feel like we're at his arts per carry i think that just has to come down i can't expect him to be a hundred percent and it's you know flashy in the big play stuff all it gets impacted there quite a bit so tough tough scene for for love and um Yeah, he's a tough click in fantasy right now because who knows this could be a situation where, like you said, you could be missing half the season or really not yourself for at least half the season. That's hard to come back from. What else you got? Yeah, totally agree there.

Breece Hall out two to three weeks, expected to be ready for week one, but not entirely sure. Braylon Allen came in, looked good, was supposed to be a big part of the team last year offensively, got injured like right away, basically. and so then it ended up becoming the Breece Hall show. I mean, Aaron Glenn said not a big deal. I don't know. Are you concerned about this at all or not really? Right groin strain is where we're at. Yeah, I'm super stoked about groin strains three weeks out.

And Braylon Allen's a good player. So this is going to be a spot where, like, you know, he was going to continue to separate from the secondary guys there. This kind of brings up back to the pack. So, like, I think the Jets are a little bit interesting this season. but this hurts in my opinion. I do think, even though I think Braylon Allen's a good football player, I think it impacts the ceiling explosionist

because I think Bruce Hall's kind of a dynamic three-down back. Yep, yeah, that's not great for him. Kyle Mununga, hyper-extended right knee, multiple weeks, week one in doubt. I think that this is very bullish for DeAndre Swift. I think Swift, you know, as a... You heard a little bit? It does.

He played really well last year. I'm a big believer in just like the way that they scheme up runs. He had a lot of space. He did look pretty good. He was kind of used in a perfect role, I think. And if Minang guys out, I mean, Swift could see a ton of work and it'd just be even more favored in his direction. So yeah, I think first couple weeks Swift could make a ton of sense.

There is a most rushing yards in the first couple weeks. They've just put an insane amount of Vig on those markets, though. So I keep wanting to like stuff, and it's just never good enough. It just never looks good. Ever since they had those most X in a week props, they don't post anything like that anymore or anything is good. No. I agree.

We kind of saw this early in the season last year where Swift was getting a larger majority of the work. And I think we could be back in that situation, you know, the battle of who's going to be the running back three still going on in camp between Roshan Johnson and Oslova and I'm. I'm not sure that I'm worried about. about them taking a ton of base work in week one, if Monongai is out or limited. So I do think it's pretty good in the short term for Swift.

And again, it could just continue to kind of build a gap between Monongai. It was a little bit better last year, too, on a yards per carry basis, too. I think a little bit better as a pass catcher, too. So probably good short term stuff for Swift. I mean, most rushing yards first three weeks is not terrible. It's 50 to 1 for Swift. Carolina in week one I mean Minnesota and Philly is not great match

was week two and three but if he's playing the bulk of the carries I don't think 50 to one's terrible the guys that he's around are just like I mean yeah to have basically no chance Jalen Warren Jadarian Price Woody Marks 2 Auburd. Those are the guys that he's around in the odds sport so yeah good call definitely a far better bet than them Hey the Black Friday game against Philly last year and no problem getting rid of remand so

true All right, good call there. Good little spring. Yeah, we got a couple other ones. Mekka, Buka, Bucca, he's a sprained toe. Optimistic, he'll be ready. Or he said initially optimistic, but Boll said,

doesn't know if he'll be ready week one against Cincinnati. I think that's a big deal for them. Lose Mike Evans. You have Chris Godwin on the tail end of his career. Bucca was expected to be the guy to be like really the focal point, in my opinion of the passing game. So now you're looking at maybe some tech.

Hirst, maybe some Jalen McMillan, mixed in with a, you know, geriatric Godwin, really tough. I mean, it's tough to be super bullish on that passing game, I think, at that point. It is. Jalen made me back in camp in the last day or two, which I think is good because he's also been been out and then he's missed a ton of time. So, yeah, again, another new coordinator for Baker, past catching core is a little bit dicey.

Again, probably pretty good for K. Doughton in the short term. I don't know. maybe it's, you know, just a lot of Kenny Gainwell. But I think you're right. Probably big pitcher does take a little bit of stealing off of Baker, both in week one and on the season. Yeah. And only other thing last thing I have here is Chuba Hubbard,

hamstring injury, legit hamstring, week to week, quote, confident for week one. I think this is basically it. I think Jonathan Brooks wouldn't even be surprised he starts week one and Chuba plays is like the 1B. It's kind of all that he needed. now I'm not buying Jonathan Brooks anymore. I think we were pretty big Jonathan Brooks Bulls early in the offseason.

We're like, hey, this could happen. But that was when, you know, Chuba was lined at 825 rushing yards in the season. We took the under there. And Jonathan Brooks was a fantasy football pick in the 120s, you know, 110s. Now he's like goes in the 70s and Chuba's prop is down like 600 something. So, yeah, again, at this point, now you have the entire Panthers offensive line injury. We're talking about cluster injuries. both their tacklers are going to miss sometimes.

Now some of their guards are injured as well. This could be one of the worst lines in the league heading into the early season. And so, again, for a team that relies, in my opinion, a lot on the running game and then that opening things up for Bryce Young, it's not looking good right now. Yeah, that's a good call. That's a good call out. Yeah, it's getting a little expensive on the Brooks front. But, yeah, it's a great call by you on Chuba early in the –

in the offseason. Two other quick ones that I wanted to note before we wrap. First, what did I have? First, scanning. I just lost my train of thought. There's so much, I mean, there's like so much stuff going on. Oh, yeah, New York Giants signing Najee Harris. So Najee Harris is there.

Obviously, we saw Tyrone Tracy get blown up in, in past coverage, already kind of a little bit down on Kansas. scatibu and a discussion that we need to have in terms of the current prompt markets anyway you know them singletary is there how much do you think nausea's involved do you think that you know they come out today and said that hey we still think tyrone tracy is going to be a big part of what we're doing it feels like he's more of a one for one and maybe you know my anti scataboo shouldn't get double counted because of harris if harris is just a one for one replacement on tracy Look, the Giants all off season have been rumored early.

They were rumored in like Jeremiah Love in the draft. And then they were rumored to be involved in Kenneth Walker and free agency. They're clearly not okay with the room. They're looking to address it. I think Naji is definitely like rip cord, you know, in emergency. But like they feel like maybe they're at a rip cord standpoint. Yeah, I think we were going to see a little bit of all three. But also I just don't know if I buy them saying like, oh,

We still expect Tyrone Tracy to play a big part. I mean, they literally saw everyone saw the blown past block or two in preseason. And then they go out and sign Naji Errs, like a day later. They can tell us that, you know, it has nothing to do with that. But their actions speak louder than words, you know. Yeah. And I think that maybe it doesn't for sure mean that Tyrone Tracy is not going to be involved.

But I think that it opens up the door for that to happen a lot quicker. Because then they already have a guy who's in their system. And they're like, okay, we don't need Trace anymore. We can just throw Naji out there and, heaven pass block instead. And so I think that that change happens a lot faster now. So he's on a lot thinner ice. At least that's my takeaway.

I think Skadaboo is still probably going to play a lot, but I do think that the other guy's going to mix in. I don't know if Kim Skadoo is any good. I don't know if he's going to be efficient. I do think that they use him more often than Tracy or nausey. I mean, I think those guys are legit bad. And I think Kemp Skadub was just okay. That's where I'd have it.

I have Scataboo comfortably getting more work than all those guys. Yeah. Even if you were to take, you know, Tracy off the lineup on a lineup and redistribute it, but I'm still pretty comfortably under on the $7.99 that's out there on Scataboo right now. So something to explore. The other one's a little bit interesting. I saw this note was we're seeing a little bit more combination in Minnesota of 12 personnel and the use of a fullback, which could impact whether it's the snap rate we'll see for T.J.

Hawkinson, it could be maybe just to lean on a more efficient run game from Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. I like Jordan Mason. I think he's got some juice. He's been pretty, his explosive rush rate is always pretty good. Now, again, the sample is pretty small because he doesn't always have a ton of snaps, but got a decent amount last year. But again, last year was kind of a broken year. the offensive line was bit to pieces.

I think it's significantly better this year. I don't know the best way to go about it, but it makes me continue to be pretty bullish on some of the, I think just multiple ways that this offense can be attacking, especially if they're in advantageous game script. So I'm a little bit bullish on Mason. I just think the overall efficient team Minnesota is going to be pretty good. Yeah, I don't know the best way to play it either.

Maybe 750 plus rushing yards. Jones is already down to four. 74 and a half. We released it at 599 and a half on the under. Another service popped it again at 550 and 525. And so now we're just, I mean, yeah, now it's way past play. I think our play too is 550, something like that. And our general rule is about 10% of whatever we released it at. But yeah, that's that's too low. And I do think the Mason upside is not bad. 750 plus is probably a reasonable number too. And I mean, maybe more, maybe a thousand pluses within, within range for a guy like that. If everything breaks right, if he is the bell cow, they've talked about that, is that he's

going to be the main between the 20s or just like main early down back, I guess. And then Jones is going to mix in as like a pass catcher, which I think is fine. I don't think that's necessarily a bad decision, especially they want to keep him healthy, I think, and have Aaron Jones have a little bit more juice whenever, you know, wherever he's available. Yeah, I don't think we have T.J. Hawkinson numbers. did fall off a cliff. It's just not an old guy. But again, if he's going to continue to not be heavily featured, maybe that's a week-to-week thing in the prompt market to attack.

But yeah, overall, great look on the early Jones number two. That is, you know, even newt. That's absolutely crazy. I wouldn't go chase the 475 right now. No, we're bathing in some CLV. But that's, you know, that's it. It doesn't pay the bills. but I feel good about the early news.

It's a nice warm blanket. Yeah. Yeah. All right. I think that wraps us up. So appreciate everyone hanging out as always. Again, check the show notes. Look for all the things that Surga has going on.

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