Move The Line - 2026 NFL Preseason News & Injuries That Impact Betting Markets

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen survey the latest NFL preseason news, injuries, and roster developments with an eye toward the betting markets. They discuss which updates could move win totals, futures, and early-season lines, while separating meaningful information from the noise that comes with training camp and preseason football. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Circa Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contests Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to Move a Line presented by Circus Sports. Ryan and joined here as always by Connor Allen continuing our Get Ready for football. We're about a month away, Connor. Divisional previews all wrapped up. It's time to kind of recalibrate

with all the news that's happened since. How are we doing today? Great, yeah. Four weeks away on the dot today as we're recording from the first game because we had a Wednesday game this year, I believe. I think I knew that, but then I didn't

and then I saw it again. I'm like, oh yeah, so we had the Pats. Seahawks on a Wednesday. Yep, Wednesday, Thursday. No Friday game this year. We had the Brazil game last year, maybe a Friday game last year, and then Sunday.

Do we have a double header Monday, too? Like the double Monday game? We might. I don't think so. I was looking at it. Maybe if we did it's week one, but I don't think, remember they were doing like a week two double header for a while?

Oh, yeah. Yeah. They just, you know, because they're jamming Wednesday games and, you know, a couple of this year, right? We've like, you know, pre- Thanksgiving game. Then the Thanksgiving game.

day games it's just yeah football every day we're touching all aspects of the they really want our families to hate us I mean it's just the goal I think of NFL oh man yeah it's so it's so tough but yeah like I said we have all of the divisional previews in the books but we've had a lot of news that has happened in particular divisions since we've already recorded so we want to kind of circle back and see that we have any thoughts on how that plays out how's that shaking out and do we have any new thoughts on those divisions or any of these teams so we'll kind of touch on some of that today.

Before we jump into that one, remind you, move the line wherever you listen to podcasts or if you like it on the YouTube channels, you do that here as well. You can just search for move the line. I can find more information in the show notes of how to subscribe to 4-4-4

if you want to get access to all the picks and all the cool stuff that we have this season, along with the offerings from our friends here over at Circa. Connor will tell us about that here. Yeah, circa $30 million guaranteed between their two contests, actually three contests as well. They have circa millions where you pick five against to spread each week.

It locks early in the week, and then you get to pick. So if the line moves to a certain direction, it's probably going to be a chalky pick. So you can either choose to pick that and take maybe a free square in your mind or fade it, if it's going to be super highly selected. And then Circa Survivor, you pick one team each week, can't pick them again the rest of the season. 20 million guaranteed for Cirque million guaranteed for circa millions. I think Noon and I'll be in circa millions for sure and probably some Survivor too. So who knows?

Should be an awesome time. You can go out to Vegas. Circa Survivor Entry Weekend is the 27th. They have a ton of fun events. If you fire, I believe if even any entries, you get invited to all the different events with like happy hours, bars, everything.

And then if you do more than that, I think they comps in your hotel rooms as well. So you can find more information there in the show notes and in the bio. We've been to Circus swim before. That was badass. I don't know if you've seen the Legacy Club. Legacy Club never been before personally,

but it looks pretty swanky. And we have a night there wrapping up there, I think, on Friday. So we're a couple weeks away. So get your ducks in a row, get out there. Again, more information. The show notes, hit us up if you have any specific questions or happy to help navigate that with you. So, yeah, it's start at the top newswise. I think one of the things that is, you know, we obviously have a couple of quarterback

rooms on the side of one who we're doing the divisional previews was still Minnesota, but now we're on the other side of that. I think earlier than expected, though we did kind of see the writing on the wall that it was going to be Kyler Murray and it kind of felt that way essentially as soon as he signed there. They allowed it to be on paper, a quarterback battle. I felt like in the week leading up to it, we were getting like some pro JJ news. I don't know what to make of that.

It definitely felt like the Viking fan following that I have was definitely still pushing like very, very pro JJ, which I understand, you know, from like a team you want to have the development of your young guy that you spent a first round draft pick on. kind of ascend. But Kyler's the guy. And I think it makes sense, too. It gets a little trickier if you go JJ first and he struggles out of the gate. And you're going to get, I think, faster whispers for Kyler.

I think this makes more sense. And I think Kyler keeps and runs away with the job personally. But we'll see what happens. What are your thoughts on Minnesota quarterback position here? Yeah, I think part of the problem was in training camp that by most reports, J.J. McCarthy was competing fairly well with Kyler Murray. and Kyla Marie was not necessarily running away with the job at the time. And so I think that led to more controversy and kind of,

I don't think that Kevin O'Connell really wanted that. It seems like he's soured on J.J. McCarthy for now and that he's not really all that interested in developing him. Again, this feels very much to me like an outsider versus an insider type of issue of like either he's not putting in, JJ's not putting in the work or Kevin O'Connell does a vibe with him or something's not clicking there between the two of them because we've seen Kevin O'Connell turn around and utilize and crush with way, worst quarterbacks, in my opinion, than J.J. McCarthy, at least talent-wise, but he's just played so bad. It just hasn't come together. So could it work eventually? Maybe. But I think

your point about if Kyler fails, you know, they go to JJ and then if he fails, then it's just like, okay, back to the drawing board again, you know, but if you put in JJ and he fails immediately, like his time of Minnesota is done forever. And it may already be. They may already be. But at least now, I think this leaves the door open a little bit if Kyler does fail. So I don't know. We'll see. The win total didn't move at all. The Super Bowl odds moved a little bit of fan duel MVP for Kyle Murray moved from 55 to 50. Again, it's all pretty much expected. I think it was like 95% baked in and it was going to be Caller Murray. Yeah, no, I agree. I think Kevin O'Connell knew that he has currently a competitive roster. And if you can answer the

quarterback position, that gets things a little bit easier. And again, like, you know, even the training camp stuff with like jj looking competitive and it kind of being more of a toss-up it's also for all the ups and downs that jj had last year it is at least his second year in the system you're kind of coming in and learning the system at first it makes sense that he wasn't necessarily pulling away it's also could just be me defending my thoughts of like being a little bit pro minnesota this year which i continue to be and i like a little bit more is them being i think a viable relative long shots to win that division or to make the playoffs and again i like the over eight and a half. And then we both discussed, you know, the possibility of, you know, looking at that

division, four really good football teams. Minnesota definitely lowest on the tonal pole in terms of, you know, what the odds would tell you, but probably shouldn't be five to one to win the division considering how destructive the defense can be at times and the upside of if things click with Kyler. So I'm still kind of like that and feel a little bit better now that we've solidified Kyler at quarterback. So, yeah, what a rug poll that'd be if JJ went on being the starter immediately. I think it'd be an uphill battle for sure. Yeah.

I remember we get to the point in like the pre-draft process or it's like even like day of day two, day, day before it's like Patriots really warming up to JJ McCarthy. Like it's, I don't know, Dr. May's fallen. Yeah. Like, and you saw like, I think like big, I don't know anyone, I don't call anyone out specifically. Like they're big media mocks that had like Drake May falling to Minnesota and like double digits and like the Patriots taking JJ,

which just feels crazy now just, you know, two years later. So what else has happened? This jumped out to you in the last couple of weeks. Yeah, I think Laramie Tunsell torn tricep, August 8th. Surgery is scheduled, probably going to miss most of the season, if not the entire season. I believe it means Brandon Coleman will kick out to tackle again.

This is a big deal for the Washington commander's offensive line. Commander's offensive line already was ranking in like mid-teens, low 20s, prior to this injury. Now with the injury, I mean, they're probably like entering the conversation into the bottom five to seven offensive lines, I would assume.

I don't know if you've seen any updated rankings or projections from any of the offensive line gurus, but this is a really bad sign for them, bad for the running game, really bad for Jay and Daniels. A lot of the bull case we made for Washington hinged on this offensive resurgence, and I just don't know if we're going to get that

without one of their best players. It's disappointing. We were both, you know, I think, tepidly optimistic that there could be ceiling outcomes for the commandos this year. It would involve Laramie Tunsell playing. And this is obviously a big one. You lose your blind side protector. You know, it's just a trickle-down effect to the rest of the depth and people having to

slide out of position. Not everyone's equipped to be, you know, a cornerstone left tackle. So now you're asking either someone you didn't feel a couple weeks ago was equipped to do that for you or this off-season was equipped to do that for you. Now you're asking them to do that job. So it just gets, it gets pretty tricky. So it has tempered my expectations on a ceiling outcome for the commanders, which we're both kind of thinking like over five and a half or over seven and a half on the wind total was pretty interesting.

There may be some playoff upside. I'm not sure we're sitting with that now, but for me, that's pretty much off the table. Yep, totally agree. Yeah. One that I think is fascinating. I want to get your thoughts on, you know, other news is some impactful injuries with Chicago. And one of them being Kobe Bryant at, at, safety and it seemed like it's an important signing for them last year coming over from

Seattle kind of solidifying having turnover at the safety room with both Kevin Byard, Jaquan Briscoe moving on in free agency. You draft Dylan Thinamon in the first round to play kind of a box heavy role. And you need somewhat of an anchor when you're doing that in the back half. And Kobe Rat was going to be that. But now it looks like it's gone from, you know, a couple of week injury to probably the majority of the season. They signed Xavier Woods, it was in the last couple years in Tennessee.

They also have Cam Lewis who they signed, she's played a little bit of safety, a little bit of nickel the last couple of years in Buffalo, so still not sure exactly how that's going to pan itself out, but definitely makes it a little bit more unsteady on the back end on the Bears. And then we have, you know, again, guy loves a microphone, loves a press conference, and that is Ben Johnson, who today fired off

that he wants the Bears offense to basically break the scoring record. We want shutouts. He wants blowouts. He wants to run it up. I love it. I think sometimes we flame guys for saying some stuff like this and having a little bit of bravado. But then as soon as the guy gives you like a canned, boring answer to any sort of question. Like this guy, well, it's this press conference.

I love it. Get up there and say like what you like say it from your toes. I want to run to score. I want to drop 40 on people all the time. Love it. Guess what? You're probably going to have to because your defenses is in trouble. Yeah.

They lived and died by turnovers last year. They were decent according to EPA defensive-wise, which obviously that factors in turnovers pretty heavily. When you exclude turnovers, they were one of the worst defenses on the per play basis. And that was, I mean, with a little bit more than they got now. They were banged up last year too, but it's looking similar, if not just as bad.

I'm not very optimistic on the secondary in this defense at all. And I think it plays in too. Like maybe it means more passing. You know, I think that we, I think the Bears wanted to run the ball a lot last year at times. And maybe it just means more passing. It means more Caleb having to beat the guy. And so, you know, again,

which I think at this point he's comfortable with, but it makes these games a lot more interesting. I think that the Bears games are going to be a lot of fun to watch. Probably not for Bears fans. I would say probably very painful. But it'll be fun for an outsider perspective, I think. Bears Lions Bears do we get a Bears

I don't get Bears Packers on Christmas I don't know the other Bears Packers game but um Bears Lions feels like over like a million points yeah just both teams probably struggling to to stop anybody and we know you know probably wants to run it up on the lions

more than he would want to run it up on anybody and they hung a pretty big number on Chicago in week two last year too so yeah definitely feel like that that's that's an over team for sure. Fascinating to watch. I mean, look, the bears were fun last year to watch. Like he said, as outsiders, as non- bears fans, you know, decent amount of island games.

This could be, you know, entertaining football. It's good for, you know, prop watching and, you know, we hate boring island games. So that's going to be, it's going to be a good time. Where else you want to touch on? Yeah, could we, let's go to Pugatakua here real quick. Yeah, we talked about it yesterday. Here we are. Yeah, it's pretty nuts because, so he's injured a little bit.

apparently wasn't, you know, working all the well, apparently minor soreness, but also Schaefter went on a podcast saying he could be suspended. He could face disciplinary issues alongside Josh Jacobs. And they could be, I mean, I don't know what that looks like. I mean, there was like the whole biting someone, bite, you like bit a chick. He was making some anti-Semitic remarks on some shows, got involved with some streamers he probably shouldn't have. I don't know what that even looks like in today's day and age, discipline-wise. Like, um, but there could be, something it's not great optics you know for sure um so yeah i think poop that whole vibe is really interesting there with puka aging devante you know we talked about the downside this is not how we drew it up

but you know i guess it kind of starts starts here right and yeah don't expect we miss any time from miles garrett but miles gary missing some time with you know a knee issue which isn't great probably nothing but like again this is kind of what we touched on with the rams that just fragile nature of of the roster it's so top heavy you have these guys that are so impactful and so important but man it gets it gets real dicey real quick if things fall to the side so yeah i mean look this is we got puka doing this in and you know before the games even start we expected to happen uh you know once we get to the season so another one i want to ask you about is alec pierce um i know you were you know very much into the colts uh

Alec Pierce having to be, you know, wide receiver won this season for them and still dealing with the offseason injury. And I'm not sure what to make him. It doesn't sound encouraging. They seem to think or want to tell us that they think he's going to be ready for week one. But we trickle that out of fact of Michael Pittman being pulled out of that offense. Josh Downs having to play a bigger role. He struggled to stay healthy.

Now Alec Pierce has already deemed up. I mean, I'm worried. I think it's if you're saying you're not worried at this point, it's crazy because they've been saying a couple weeks now for a couple months. And by all accounts, he's still limping. He apparently, you know, there's controversial reports on back and forth of did he get more injections or did he get more, you know, things going on? I'm not really sure. So I'm worried. I think he's a big part of their offense too because like who's going to play like X or who's going to play outside. It's like Ashton Doolin. Are they going to sign someone? Are they going to trade for someone? I think that they

probably trade for someone, honestly, if Pierce ends up just be. being taking a while. I mean, Josh Downs can't do it all. I do think this means more potentially work for Tyler, Tyler Warren, but we'll see. Who knows? Yeah, someone testing their lungs out back there in the background a little bit? Yeah, can you hear that or no. It's a little bit. I can, but the listeners probably can't. I mean, just absolutely wailing here in the room next door. So it's great. You know, it's the joys of being a new father. It was quiet for, I think, the last 10 hours. So right as we go on, that's great. Life was quiet for the first 30. years it's about to get a lot louder so it's good it's good for she's got to work those those pipes out so yeah

exactly test them out uh yeah i mean it gets it does get thin pretty quick uh in that room but i kind of agree i think that you know early Tyler warren stuff is probably pretty exciting um you know if the matchups are right but yeah interesting to see what it's happened in there uh you know i thought i hand wing said a pretty funny tweet where he had like the old decrepit like leg that was yeah you know Skeleton. That was great. It was a good one. Definitely want to watch, though.

It could be impactful. Yeah, I totally agree. And then are you worried about all about Luther Burton? Expect them this entire preseason. Basically a month. They said he should be fine. He said he's going to be fine. He talked to some fans.

They signed Ray Ray Ray McLeod. I tend to think he's going to be okay. But betting against this kind of profile has been pretty profitable historically. Like, it's like players who get injured in preseason just never, basically never live up to their full season billing. based on the studies that I've done in the past. So I'm going to revisit that now because as players keep getting more and more and more injured,

which I mean, I have like seven more, eight more that we could talk about, you know what I mean? Which is crazy because we're only a weekend. We haven't even in games yet. We're like a week into preseason at this point. It's a little bit of like what was holding him back in college too, right?

It was, you know, he had a poor final season in Missouri coming, but like injuries have been kind of a problem there too. That's, again, predicting injuries are tough. But again, studies will tell you, yeah, the best indicator of future injuries is past injuries is just part of some, unfortunately, who he is. He's still a young guy.

He can break that. I mean, again, I'm old. So, like, that was Frank, believe or not, that was Frank Gore's ammo coming out of Miami. He just couldn't stay healthy and then got dinged up. And then the guy played until he was, you know, 40 years old or whatever. So, like, the guys can break that mold. But like you said, you don't want to see it early in the preseason. season and he becomes an important piece for them obviously too you know colson lovelin ascending you know

rome dealing with his own injuries there too moving on from dj more it was you know you couldn't log on to twitter without seeing some sort of positive pro luther burden spin here for about a month this obviously is a little bit of a wet blanket on that but um yeah drafting him less um you know doing some big guerrillas right now on the ffpc's and um you know don't want to have to make a decision on them, to be honest, because I'm fascinated by the upside, but, like, you know, it's a tough click. I think Colson Loveland is going to just absolutely crush, too. Like, I, you know, I was going through some of the stats regardless last year anyways. And this is obviously, I think Luther Burton doesn't dramatically impact Colson Loveland,

if anything, I think it's, like, good to have more options and not have people focused on him. But if you look from week seven on, essentially when he started playing more of a full-time role, 6.9 targets per game, 4.6 receptions, 60.9 yards. But then if you look at the five games that he ran a route on 75% plus of dropbacks, which is essentially the last five weeks of the season, you started playing even more beyond that, 9.8 targets per game, 6.6 receptions per game, 94 yards per game. I mean, just was absolutely nuking.

And if you look at the game log, it's just crazy. And that was with, again, like 75, 80. It was like in the 80s usually a route participation. I think we see that basically every week now. So I think Loveland is probably where I'm shifting my attention to, to be honest. And in drafts and betting, I think thousand plus for Loveland, which I think was as high as it's like three to one to have a thousand receiving yards. Pretty good, I think.

Yeah. Yeah, he's good. I'm sending. Yeah, I like that edge too. It's just kind of a nice little pivot there, especially maybe early in the season. Again, the team that we expect to be an over team. ball's going to go somewhere. Like, you know, Rome, I think, I still like Rome.

And I just feel like last year, too, he was dealing with a little bit of an injury. And, you know, could come out on the other side of that. I think he's a little bit of a little bit of a value. Another defensive one, you know, Jonathan Grenard in Philadelphia is trending the wrong way. Big Fangio, defensive coordinator at the press conference yesterday. He said, still not sure when he's coming back.

Maybe unlikely at this point maybe to be ready for week one. be behind the eight ball because the time he's missed, assimilating a new and new defense. I kind of liked him as a bounce back this year. I thought it was an impactful signing for that defense. Now, again, do I really worry about the impact of team level for Philly because they have enough guys and I like the system?

Probably not a ton, but a little bit. Like this is, I think their ceiling is significantly different with a healthy Jonathan Grenard than it is without him. Do you have any thoughts on Grenard or anything on the Philly said? Yeah, not too much. I think that's something to watch.

I mean, another couple of weeks at least. I mean, put some week one in question. So maybe there's something to do there specifically. And that's, I think, part of the thing that you have to consider with all these injuries is like, okay, how long are they out? And if they are out, are they going to be back to 100 percent? If they're not back to 100 percent, where are they at? And are they going to try and play through it? Because then that just, I guess, that goes back to my earlier point.

Like, that can lead to a season of disappointment if there's playing injured the entire year. Yeah. like i mean defensive line edge in particular in terms of assimilating to a new system probably less impactful than maybe you know back seven positions because like

yeah you have your stunts and the different things that you do and you know when you fall there's there's obviously some stuff but the end of the day like an edge like grenard like go beat the dude in front of you and go get the quarterback um so little less system dependent but like you know bandios spoke to that and you know you want to give reps to the guys that are there early and, you know, are healthy.

And, you know, again, to your point, you know, risk of re-injury. He's not back yet. Peck injury, that's not fun for a guy in that position. So definitely something to monitor, maybe early, Philly stuff. Again, maybe another spot where points are probably more impactful or could be more common. What else you got? You got seven or eight more. Let's hammer it.

Yeah. CMC missed in practice. Debo Samuel took running back reps. I think mostly a nothing burger. But I do think Debo could place some running back. I think that could make sense. They did use him before. They've used them in that role before.

I don't know if you remember. We would bet on those props. It's fun. Yeah, it was great. So that was fun. Josh Jacobs also was mentioned by Schaeffert, that he's not apparently in the clear fully and legally after some offseason shenanigans there. And also out at least this week with a groin injury.

And the offensive line got worse. I mean, This is it's not looking good are there Josh Jacobs props up right now as like I'm talking myself into this. Yeah I don't I doubt it right this I don't think so I was looking earlier let me see if we have any any Josh Jacob stuff. Yeah I mean that was we're Say down on Green Bay overall it's because there's I think just depth questions like I really like Jordan love. I think is a good player Obviously bullish on what the floor can do but it just makes me just a little bit nervous no Josh Jacobs yeah I don't see much either and yeah it makes

sense it was it at a thought it opened to 150 I would assume just like off the board everywhere probably because it's mostly because it's legal stuff but if you can find that anywhere I mean that's I think a pretty good look on the under just a lot of different outs of things going wrong at this point it seems like yeah it's time for you to go over the prediction market and be the book you know you know, flow to 950 and a half and see if, you know, anyone bites. Yeah. Yeah. It's one.

Maybe I'll take a peek over there and see if I can. They'll let me post. J.K. Dobbin, soft injury, tissue injury. He promised he was going to stay healthy. He promised us. He told us that last time. I remember the couple years ago when he was like limping in that preseason game or whatever.

And then got injured again like immediately after. So I've been clicking them a little bit too in best balls frustrating because I think like just in terms of what that board looks like in that range. There's some upside behind that offensive lines. A team I'm bullish on. But yeah, you think not encouraging for a guy that's had trouble staying on the fields. So kind of a mess. Yeah. And then two more big ones on my end, Emeka, Buka rolled up today in practice.

they don't know. They said that they're still figuring out what the true extent of the injury is. That would be a big, big, big loss for them, especially after losing Mike Evans. At this point, they're down to like, Jalen McMillan, Chris Godwin, Ted Hurst, I believe.

Tess Johnson is banged up. So it's pretty tough. It's a tough, would be a tough look for them on a team that we're already a little bit skeptical on. Yeah. Just the one happened today, so we'll have to kind of wait and see what happened there. that happened we don't have a ton of information yet on raven's corner and nate wiggins who was

carted off and went down with a knee injury yesterday big one for them um really good last year allows them to kind of you know play some man on the perimeter you know him you know losing him i think shifts a bunch of stuff so i have to see what happens there it sounded like he avoided anything that was structural but it doesn't mean that he's you know in the clear and we back of practice soon or we're even ready for week one. So we have to kind of wait and see what's going on. Because that one's kind of a big one on the Raven side. Yeah, agreed there.

And Isaiah Pacheco, MCL sprain a couple days ago, expect to be back for week one. Please just play week one. And then I can just bet his under. I don't care what it is. I mean, just 12 and a half yards. I don't care he's like, we're going to be more closer to his snap watts than whatever. And if he does get a carry, even three carries, he's going to be just awful. Like he's already washed, not that good.

And so, I mean, I hope he plays. That'd be awesome. We're going to have interesting discussions this year because we're going to be turning the levers here on the prop side of things. We're having to turn Pacheco down. You got to turn Gibbs up quite a bit. I know. And then we might get some overs there.

That's, yeah, I think Gibbs is definitely an over guy. I mean, well, you know, that's even a guy that I don't think I'd bet an under on. I don't think I bet on any Gibbs unders last year. I don't remember it. I probably would try to talk you out of it for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Because, I mean, that guy's, you know, popping off routinely with, you know,

35, 40% of the touches. And interesting to see what it could happen there with him this year for sure. So, yeah, that's it. A lot of the other ones, you know, a bunch of injuries in the NFC South, but we were able to get to that show before we, you know, had to pick through the Jalen Walker, Nick Scorton, Brian Brisee stuff. It's all kind of happening and folded up into the, NFC South previews.

So again, if you missed any of the divisional previews, check that out. Again, move the line where we listen to podcasts. Find it on the YouTube as well. Again, the show notes again, find out what's going on over at circle

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We'll continue this going in the preseason for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.