Move The Line - 2026 NFL Preseason Week 2 News & Betting Market Impact

Episode Date: August 24, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen break down the latest NFL news and notes following Preseason Week 2, focusing on the developments that could impact betting markets. They discuss injuries, roster and dept...h-chart movement, preseason performances, and other updates that could influence win totals, futures prices, and early-season expectations. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Circa Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contests Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome to Move Online, presented by Circus Sports. Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen. We're getting close to real NFL football, preseason games popping on our screens all weekend, news, quarterback battles, some battles ending. We'll talk about all that today. Connor Allen, how we doing? Great. We are going to be out in Vegas this Thursday and Friday at the Circa Ultimate Contest weekend. Pumped for that.
Starting point is 00:00:38 I mean, that's going to be awesome. We're going to be out there. The deep dive crew is going to be out there. There's going to be the SGP guys are going to be out there. Like, you know, a bunch of big, big people are going to be out there. So it's going to be a lot of fun firing some entries off. Going to be doing some shows on Thursday and Friday. I'll have some fun guests on.
Starting point is 00:00:53 We'll be, you know, live in person, maybe get to see a little bit more of our beautiful physiques. So, you know, it should be a good time. So very excited. And then, you know, definitely. If you're out in Vegas in the next two weeks, you have to fire at least one entry in here. If you're planning on doing a survivor or. circa millions. There's no rake in the contest, $1,000 to enter. And again, Survivor, you pick one team each week, can't use them again the following week or ever again the rest of the season. And then
Starting point is 00:01:18 millions, you pick five against the spread, spreads lock on Wednesdays, I believe. So lots of different strategy, whether you pick the CLV, you fade them, go from there, like lots of different options. But they have like quarterly payouts, end of the year payouts, a bunch of different ways to win. So awesome contests, awesome people. Super excited for this weekend. So, you know, we'll definitely and more on that throughout the year and this week. Yeah, I cannot wait. Finally here, it felt like it felt it was close always, but now it's just like, oh, it's layer.
Starting point is 00:01:46 It feels like there's so much between now and then and now it's here. It's this week. Totally. More information in the show notes, Connor said, if you want to learn about what's going on over there. Obviously, you're going to be in Vegas to sign up,
Starting point is 00:01:55 but you can use proxies for all these things, proxies to, you know, submit your picks every week, roll that into the fee. Lots of different ways to go about that. You can find more information just on Circa's website to find that out, to hit us up if you have any questions specifically.
Starting point is 00:02:09 But you got a Wyndham Clark winner on the golf side this week. More. Love that. More circuit money for contests. So feeling good to get that bankroll built up before we get to real NFL football game. So let's jump in. More news. I think the big one coming in here as we record this on a Monday morning is the Browns quarterback situation.
Starting point is 00:02:30 We have an answer. I think it's the answer that we all expected if we were maybe asked a month ago. Maybe not what we were. necessarily would have expected if we were asked a week or a day ago. But it does make sense with the Browns leaning on to Sean Watson as the week one starter, despite what happened over the weekends where Sean publicly spoke about being booed, feeling like it's personal with the Cleveland fan base. I probably not wrong.
Starting point is 00:03:01 The nice caveat here is that they start in the row with two games. They probably get waxed in both of those games. I just think it makes so much more sense where you would go Deshaun to, you know, Shador versus having to go the other way, right? If you want to see if Shoror continues to be a thing, knowing that you're probably 2027 quarterback is not currently on the roster in what appears to be somewhat of a decent slash possibly loaded quarterback class. I'm always hesitant to say that because we feel this every year where it's like,
Starting point is 00:03:29 if you start to look at like number one pick odds, you'll see these quarterbacks. and then oftentimes like day two or day three picks by the time we get to the draft. So you never know what's going to happen. But I feel pretty confident that their quarterback for 2027 is not on the roster. But Deshawn's the starter, Connor, for week one against Jacksonville in the road. They're like two touchdown dogs. I mean, no, it's seven and a half right now, I think. I saw 12.
Starting point is 00:03:55 I was looking at maybe we just need to update our, uh, look at the feed is behind. Yeah, they're only seven and a half point dogs right now. I was going to say I really like Jacksonville. Like, you know, it's, I mean, they should absolutely obliterate the Browns. This is a Browns team that their defense got worse. Their offensive line is projected to be one of the worst. Deshawn Watson wasn't even good with a better offensive line and a better running game. Like, he's just been awful since we, he has been literally nothing but terrible since playing with the Cleveland Browns.
Starting point is 00:04:29 The last time he was good was 20-20. It's six years ago. I mean, just so long ago. So I have really low expectations. I know they added, you know, Denzel Boston and conception, and they still have Jerry Judy. So I just am not buying it. I have such little faith in this team.
Starting point is 00:04:47 I think the Jags minus seven and a half is a really good look. I was kind of surprised it didn't move. I was watching it as soon as the news broke. Inical move from like seven and a half minus 103 to seven and a half minus 115, so I don't know, 10 cents. I guess maybe because I think it was mostly baked in. There were some sevens earlier in the off season. So I think it's like kind of was trending this way as there was more negative Deshaun news and negative, I mean just negative Brown's news.
Starting point is 00:05:16 But like he was going to still start. I think they're hanging him out to drive for two games. And then you get like Panthers, Steelers, Jets. Not like they're not better than them, but they're more winnable than bucks or Jags. Yeah, he was just so bad. stunningly bad. The turnovers were a problem. Let me see.
Starting point is 00:05:36 I was just trying to pull his, I mean, I think a really good indicator is just, you know, how good are you in a clean pocket, right? Like everyone struggles when, you know, when you're under pressure to a degree.
Starting point is 00:05:49 But, you know, Sean Watson, just not taking any shots, really pushing the ball down the field, checking down. It was just so bad even last year in a clean pocket. Clean pocket,
Starting point is 00:06:01 at 4.2 average depth of target, like what is that? Like, you know, that's great. You had you had time. But like, yeah, I just compare that to other starters around the NFL and it's just, you know, an insane number of someone that just is trying to get out of there. Like, you know, Josh Allen 13, like most NFL starters are kind of around like, you know, eight to nine, you know, check down city, even in the clean pocket. So, yeah, I don't know how that plays the same. out with the improved because again this is a team that yes i agree like defense is worse defense is still probably okay um you pass catcher core young i think exciting but obviously captive with a quarterback that i is inaccurate not taking chances early in the season it's it's a tricky spot so yeah jacksiville
Starting point is 00:06:50 seems like a nice spot to to start the season you know maybe a maybe a millions pick for us by the time we we get there if that number can hold yeah as we're talking right now pinnacle move to eight And so did Bavada and Bat 105. So, because I was looking this morning, I'm like 12 and a half. I'm like, it's a big number, but maybe. I know that I hate it. Yeah, I think the lookheads line tool needs a little refresh. But yeah, Circus is still at seven and a half minus 110.
Starting point is 00:07:17 Would love for that lock in is the number. I think anything less than 10 is probably good, which is crazy to say, but I think that's much closer to the number. Yeah. I mean, just inexperienced, we talked about this when we did our Browns, preview. The offensive line needed to change, but you had wholesale changes. And while change is probably good, change isn't always an improvement. And when you have literally zero continuity along the offensive line, we talked about specifically with the Browns was attacking them early
Starting point is 00:07:45 because you just kind of need that. We talk about that as kind of an underlying thing for team success as like continuity along the offensive line. You know, it is a unit that does work cohesively together. It is not necessarily, it is a some of the parts unit versus a individually skilled unit. When you don't have experience with guys playing a ton of reps next to each other,
Starting point is 00:08:09 and the team, they generate pressure, right? Josh Heinz Allen, Trayvon Walker, this is a good, even in the interior, they have some good pressure guys. They turn the ball over and had good pressure right last year. Yeah, I think Jacksonville is probably pretty interesting. Jags,
Starting point is 00:08:24 Jags Rundee is really good, right? That's like, I mean, they were one of the three or four, I think, best last year, if I remember correctly. Yeah. And, yeah, I'm interested to see what Judkins numbers comes out at because I think they're going to want to run the ball. But big dogs, tough matchup. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:40 This is uncorrelated, you know, yards under carries over. Yep. Yeah, like 18 for like 60. Like that's what's going to have, you know, like something like that. Yeah. Yeah, that's kind of the. the bigger news. Some of the other bigger news came out of Las Vegas and it ended up not being the news that it seemed to be,
Starting point is 00:09:01 especially in the fantasy community for, you know, I don't know, seven, eight hours stretch where it looked like Ashland Genty might be lost for an extended period of time. You know, I think it kind of paired with the fact that Mike Washington was someone that a lot of people liked in the draft community pre-draft. I think we're probably a little bit bummed that he landed in Las Vegas because he had maybe some ceiling outcomes depending on where he would land
Starting point is 00:09:25 and landing in a spot behind the second year running back who has a lot of juice himself is probably a little less appealing. So the pro-Mike Washington community was really excited to get behind Mike Washington. Now it feels like that ended up not being a thing because it ends up being a sprained ankle. It doesn't even seem like it's unnecessarily a high ankle for Gentie.
Starting point is 00:09:41 So that was kind of a dud. Thoughts on the Raiders and Gentie. Yeah, I think we're looking at like probably three up to upwards of eight weeks. if it is doesn't have been the worst case scenario. But it's crazy to me. I mean, the prayer circle,
Starting point is 00:09:59 we had a prayer circle for a guy who's sprained an ankle. You gotta be kidding me. So, and of course. People's basketball bags are packed at this time of year, right? So like, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:09 responding to that. Also, I had my, I rejoined my home league last, last night and we had our draft mid thing. I took Mike Washington like, like, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:21 ninth round. And I was like, oh, man, it's such a good valiant. value like an hour later, you know, the prayer circle healed gentie and it was just a sprained ankle. So now I'm totally, totally toast. But team wise, I think he's probably going to sit out, I would guess, a week or two and then be fine for week three on. That would be my guess. I think we see Mike Washington early. If he is healthy right away, again, I would probably expect
Starting point is 00:10:44 like a slow ramp up. I don't think they're going to jam him as much as they would early. I don't think this matters all that much for props. I guess week one against the dolphins. I was expecting a massive gentie workload and game. How that looks now is pretty interesting. How much is Mike Washington sees looked really good in preseason? As you mentioned, his profile was pretty interesting. Really good RAS. Not very good production, but very good RAS.
Starting point is 00:11:06 So interesting profile. I think his props still could be in play, but I guess we just still have no idea what, like some of the doctors. He could have a fracture in his ankle, which would make him out like eight plus weeks, you know? But so there's just so much uncertainty right now. because he still wasn't putting weight on it. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:11:26 We'll see. I think it's tough. I guess like win total wise, it didn't matter. I saw someone tweet out that they bet the under when he got injured. I think it was GRP, our guy, GRP. Which is just all time because, you know, JT now is going to play probably at some point in the season, I would assume. I just don't think it matters. I mean, what does it move?
Starting point is 00:11:47 Like a couple cents at most, you know, like I don't think he matters all that much to the team outlook. Yeah, I agree with that. Other news there, too, with, again, reading the tea leaves with how the writers use their receivers in the preseason. It looks like Trey Tucker, wide receiver won. I think we both agree that Brock Bowers, past catcher won still. That job was really not up for grabs. But Trey Tucker gets a little bit more interesting, maybe in the prop market, those guys end up being flat attacking Miami's secondary. I don't know if there's really any reaction to that, but that feels like something
Starting point is 00:12:22 that's played out over the weekend. Yeah, interested to see, so there's a couple of teams where I think the receiving cores are just like really uncertain and at least, like in the eyes of many,
Starting point is 00:12:36 but I feel pretty good about like Trey Tucker wide receiver one there in Miami like Caleb Douglas wide receiver one. And I'm really just to see what the props are of the lower tier guys, you know, because you could get some props on guys who might be a rotational wide receiver three or four.
Starting point is 00:12:50 Like if we got like Jack Batch, isn't really going to play much, you know, but books might think he is because he's like on paper, probably going to play. But if he does play, it's like, you know, he's not going to get any targets. Because he's just, I don't, I don't think he's very good, it seems like. So those types of players I'm looking for in lines for week one, because those could be some nice unders of like 20 yards or 15 yards, something like that, if they're going to be out there for 20% of the routes, basically. So in terms of like team impact, though, yeah, I don't think it moves the needle more just for Brock Bowers. I think he's going to absolutely feast.
Starting point is 00:13:21 just, I mean, a million targets, it seems like. Yeah. We made a case in our, you know, one of our preseason shows for Brock for offensive player of the year just because you can compile so many stats. It hasn't always been an award that's correlated with team success. So I'm not necessarily worried about bottom falling out for the Raiders. And that's off the board. You can just go out and put out historic performance.
Starting point is 00:13:46 Like historically defensive player of the year correlated with team success. but then Miles Garrett broke the sack record. So there are outliers where if the player is that good, then it doesn't necessarily matter. So that one's interesting. In that same game, just want to stay here a little bit, probably off your radar.
Starting point is 00:14:03 But Terrell Dotson, linebacker for the Miami Dolphins, got dinged up over the weekend. It didn't seem good, but we don't have the news necessarily. Maybe let's get us some Jacob Rodriguez time in Miami at linebacker. right out of the gate.
Starting point is 00:14:21 So if you're looking for a little defensive rookie of the year, sprinkle and maybe you missed it early, you're still looking in like high teens, 20 for Jacob Rodriguez, defensive rookie of the year, out here picking dudes off and practice all over the place, causing pressure, we can have it. You didn't hang out with us during the draft process.
Starting point is 00:14:38 You know, big flag plan guy, a middle linebacker for me for the dolphins, Jacob Rodriguez. He's starting week one. He ain't given that job back. Sorry, Terrell Dotson. Miami should trade you, get something, from somewhere for you.
Starting point is 00:14:52 I mean, we get, Jacob Roder, you guys cut him. Another thing we were talking about a little bit before show, another guy that we referenced in the preseason long shot defensive rookie of the years, J. Sean Barron from the Dallas Cowboys was this hybrid edge prospect at Michigan. And it was very clear that when the Cowboys drafted him, they said, we're putting him an off ball linebacker and letting him just kind of run
Starting point is 00:15:19 free. We're going to put him on the weak side, blitz him, let him run all over the field. He's flashing in a big way in camp. You're talking about a triple-digit defensive rookie of the year candidate if you like that sort of market. But it got me thinking and trying to talk to you about the NFC in general. I'm trying to think of when we're going to get to the time of the year and I figure we'll probably do it a little bit with some guests when we're in Vegas. You know, we kind of at this time of year, start thinking about we got to make some some big picks. Who's winning these conferences?
Starting point is 00:15:49 Who's winning these divisions? Who's representing each conference in the Super Bowl? Who's winning the Super Bowl? And the NFC is tricky, Connor. I think we obviously have some clear favorites, some deserve favorites. The overall favorite is the Rams, and I think they deserve to be where they are.
Starting point is 00:16:04 But I think we know the fragility in that team and that roster is maybe unlike anyone else. It's such a top-heavy roster. It's maybe less top-heavy than it's been in the past, mostly because the stability on the defense. side, but like the offensive side is very, very fragile. It is a very high on the range of outcomes if they stay healthy, but that's a tricky prospect, given the history of some of the guys that we're talking about.
Starting point is 00:16:29 So take it wherever you want, but, you know, picking an NFC winner, I think is really tricky. Yeah, I mean, overall, too, it's, it's, there's one division, obviously with the NFC West that makes up whatever three of the top NFC teams, but I think all of them have significant downside. And then you have the other team with the Detroit Lions who are going to win a ton of games, but I don't know if they're going to be the best team in the NFC. I think are going to be very much a contention. Eight to one right now to be the top seed in the NFC, I think is a pretty good look, just because their schedule is so easy and they're going to be good.
Starting point is 00:17:03 But then you have, you know, the Rams, a lot of injury downside. Niners. The electrical substation just can't stop. You saw it also placed Jed York in a prostitution ring in Ohio, apparently. So that's tough scenes for the Niners. And then the Seahawks, I'm a little bit worried about their offense without Kubiak. I mean, I think that he could be a talent maximizer. So I think that matters a little bit too.
Starting point is 00:17:26 And then from there, we don't love the Packers. The Bears are extremely volatile. So then you have a team like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are interesting. I do actually, to be clear, I do think the Bears are interesting in that range. Like they can firmly beat basically any team. They could also just, like, lose to almost every team, maybe outside of the bottom five-ish at this point.
Starting point is 00:17:44 And so I think that that's maybe a good long shot team. And then the Cowboys and Vikings are probably the range that I'm looking at. What price are you seeing in the Cowboys here to win the NFC is like 15 and 12s and like that? Yeah, I think that's kind of the range. They're interesting. Like I, they obviously, we talked about when we did the Cowboys thing is that the thing we both thought they were interesting then. And we didn't like the prices. And part of it is I do think you pay a little bit of a Cowboy tax.
Starting point is 00:18:14 because books know that they can maybe shade at a point across the board, knowing that they're going to get public money on the Cowboys every year. So it doesn't feel great to us. But I'm just trying to think of teams that have some pieces that would make you think that they can make an ascension. I think there's some stability on the offensive side. I think that they obviously the ceiling outcomes we saw last year, they were a juggernaut offensively. Defensive side of the ball, they have thrown a ton of resources along the defensive front
Starting point is 00:18:42 to kind of recreate, but try to. soften the loss of Micah Parsons. Secondary improvements are better. I think what, you know, going out and drafting Caleb Downs, we're hearing nothing about great Caleb Down stuff. He can play that star role, that hybrid slot, safety, put them wherever you want. Some of the cornerback improvements, I think, are better. Like a guy like Jalen Thompson in the back end, I think is like a better. I think they're improved everywhere. They were using a lot of inexperienced, you know, day three picks of linebacker last year. They're better with whatever they end up, you know, going with this year.
Starting point is 00:19:19 So and I like Christian Parker, a young 34-year-old defensive coordinator that they brought over from, you know, from Philly, been part of that Fangio staff. I'm trying to think of ways to leverage this. Like, I think not every book has assistant coach of the year, but I like Christian Parker in the high teens around 20-ish defensive or assistant coach of the year. It's just thinking that, hey, if the Cowboys ascend, again, their Republic team, they get a lot of island games. I think it's, hey, what's different this year in Dallas? Yeah, there's a bunch of players that are different this year. But we brought in this like assistant coach that's getting a little bit of like national pub anyway. And a lot of these awards are narrative driven.
Starting point is 00:20:02 And like Christian Parker makes a ton of sense if you're looking to speculate in that market. So, you know, and again, that's a better price than Dallas to win the NFC. Their defense was way better when they got Quinn in last year, too. After the trade for Quinn in, it almost like instantly fixed their run defense problem. They went from like being a bottom through run defense to being average from what I remember. Average to good. I think it was like 10 to 15 range of like that. If I remember correctly, EPA and success rate.
Starting point is 00:20:30 And so I mean, that matters a ton. Once you do that, then you can get some other things in place. And from there, as you mentioned, broke down everything else. Like if they're okay defensively or even decent, maybe get some lucky turnovers, you know, and are positive variants there. then yeah, they're squarely in play to, I think, make a run here in the division, especially with the Eagles again. The vibes just feel off again. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Maybe if I don't know, are you picking up any of that as well? Like I feel like some of the previous years, too, it's just never, the vibe just haven't really felt all that good. And so like, you know, last year, whatever, they won the Super Bowl two years ago. And then last year, they just, something seemed off. And it's not quite that level, but it does feel like it's just not fully clicking, at least from an outsider's perspective in the preseason. you know, joint practices and everything. So, I mean, they posted a picture,
Starting point is 00:21:19 the video of them posting, of Jalen Hurts getting picked off with Quinnion Mitchell or whatever. I don't know, I guess it's, maybe it's normal, but it just felt weird. And I was like, this is, this guy needs more confidence. You know, he's not doing all that well right now. So I thought that was a bit of a strange post, but we'll see.
Starting point is 00:21:35 I don't know, a lot of ifs with Philadelphia, I think. Yeah, worry about the ceiling with the offense, knowing that defense can regress and can be, you know, not super sticky. I think the defense is going to be good. But again, like they have a couple of key guys. I think on both sides, they're expecting a lot from this year with Jonathan Grenard at defensive end, who's dealing with a peck strain. And then on the offensive side, like you want Mackay Lemon to kind of slide right in and get that rookie reps right away. And when you're missing a ton of time, that just kind of puts you behind the eight ball to start. So those aren't necessarily
Starting point is 00:22:04 great pieces. And the way, the other thing too is speculative in like some of the random award market. Not everyone offers protector of the year, but I was trying to make the case to you before the show. Like these are again, such narrative-driven awards. Lane Johnson, in no way, shape, or form is not going to be one of the best offensive tackles in the league. It's made it clear this is his last season. You can get north of 15 to 1 on Lane Johnson to be protector of the year. I think it's probably a pretty good bet, right? Like, it's such a subjective award anyway. How are we measuring it? Like, what stats? are the writers and voters leveraging here.
Starting point is 00:22:43 It becomes, are you good? Do we know that you're good? Were you good again? Is your team okay? And again, in this scenario, you're a Hall of Famer, as soon as the first ballot Hall of Famer, this award wasn't available to you
Starting point is 00:22:58 for the majority of your career. We want to get you on before you go. Here you go. And I think that's worth a sprinkle. I love that look. You said it's a Fandall? Yeah, I know Fandle definitely has it. I'm, you know, I'm a sucker for a good narrative award.
Starting point is 00:23:11 As long as you say it's healthy, like that just makes sense. Like you said, Stafford kind of last year to some extent. I think so. Yeah. Like, right. I mean, how much worse or how much better, tangibly better, measurably better can someone else be? Not much, right? Like, yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:29 You know, the only one looking at PFF grades is frigging like what, what, Mita Kimes and, you know, like out of the voters. Like, what, five out of the 50 or whoever, something like that. And either way, Lane Johnson is. going to be out there in those too. Yeah. Oh, yeah. So again, not widely available, but something that I think is worth speculating on for trying to take some stabs. And I think we all, at least Connor and I believe that those are the kind of bets you
Starting point is 00:23:51 should be making it this time of year is some speculative, you know, maybe some LCLV, but, you know, could be some CLV there as we get closer to season actually starting. Yeah, he's only like, I think eight to one on Cali she right now or nine to one on Cali. Otherwise, I think that'd be a great look there. obviously as we talked about using prediction markets for futures is good as long as the price is similar because then you give you the option to cash out or sell or you know the the CLV could be more than LCLV potentially but at 9 to 1 versus 15 to 1 or 16 to 1 I think I'd probably rather just take the 16 to 1 and let it ride yeah any other news someone else are going to talk about I mean some other injuries that you know
Starting point is 00:24:32 in terms of how they they maybe impact some week one props when we get there but any other big big picture stuff you want to share? Couple of the buzz through real quick. Chargers put Tyler Beaudish on season ending IR. Knee injury. Injury bug just keeps striking them. That's really tough. They really need their tackles to be healthy because without, I think Roshan Slater
Starting point is 00:24:53 is still kind of coming back from an injury as well. Without that, again, they're just having cluster injuries. It makes it really tough for Mike McDaniel and Herbert to, I think, fully unlock his potential as like a downfield thrower. And then Browns, back to the Browns, D-end Alex Wright on IR with an Achilles, added Derek Barnett. I mean, I don't know. Do you want to give a quick breakdown?
Starting point is 00:25:12 Pretty good last year, actually. Yeah, he was pretty good. At the same time, like, it's hard to understand the impact of playing opposite. Miles Garrett, right? So, you know, we'll see. I mean, again, like, Jared versus impactful, too. So he's still, I think, going to be a pretty good year. But, you know, they don't have a ton of depth there.
Starting point is 00:25:33 Their line is good when it's healthy, but not a ton of depth there. So hard to say if we can isolate him being a really good player yet, but a loss to the depth for sure. Okay. And then George Kittle activated off Pupp. I think that he probably plays week one or week two. If he doesn't travel, yeah, it's insane. If he doesn't travel to Australia, I think he's going to play week two. But I wouldn't be surprised if he plays week one.
Starting point is 00:25:56 I mean, dude's just a freak. It's incredible. I mean, again, I'm significantly older than you. Like, these used to be like borderline career ending injuries. Like, you wouldn't necessarily. be done with an ACL, you know, used to be done. Like, you're an NBA player and you popped your Achilles. It's over.
Starting point is 00:26:14 The late 80s or early 90s, done so. Now the fact that these guys can get hurt in like December with like a devastating injury that used to be like, oh, yeah, you might come back, but it's going to be like a full year. And these guys are like, no, I'm ready for week one. Crazy. I mean, cool. The advancements of modern medicine are wild. But, you know, then you get these sickos that obviously have new access on it from a rehab
Starting point is 00:26:37 standpoint like it's just everything is better right the surgery is probably cleaner they're not digging in it's like they know what they're doing when they get in there they know how to minimize damage and then you got this just all the advancements in post-surgical training it's just crazy so then you get these dogs like kid will just go out and you know obviously just grinding his ass off to get out there it's it's wild it's insane yeah I would expect him to probably have like a slowish start and then by mid-season just be you know fully back and so that's it's pretty crazy they Another one, too, is interesting.
Starting point is 00:27:08 Michael Pennix cleared for 11 on 11 work. Most reports about Tua have not been great in the last two weeks. So the offense has been struggling in joint practices. There's been some clips circulating of him looking, well, like Tua, unfortunately. And so it's not been great. I think Michael Pinnockes will take over at some point this season. The Falcons. I think that we have been of the opinion that Sifansky is an underrated coach.
Starting point is 00:27:32 I mean, there's a chance. Like, what if he's not? What if he just is a terrible, like, coach? had a terrible record and just hasn't been good. That's also a possibility. And this team is not very good. You know, like they have a lot of holes on the roster. So I think that this Falcons team is a lot lower downside than I think we originally
Starting point is 00:27:51 thought if the quarterback play is really bad. We were kind of lukewarm on them in terms of like, you know, liking the Saints, thinking that Tampa Bay is still a good football team. I was partially we're also down on Carolina. But I'm with you. I think I need to put a Conra Allen alt parlay together. Yeah. On the receiver side, because there's just a couple of guys in that range.
Starting point is 00:28:12 They're, I think, similar body types that you're looking at the target shares for a Drake London. Really, I was pro-Tet, been a big tech guy, the whole guy the whole time, like, tent in the slot. Like, it's also a bad football team, like these. And then like Nico Collins with all that's going on in Houston. Like, it's really hard for me to not see those three guys have a target share north of 30%. and be probably pretty efficient with some like massive ceiling weeks.
Starting point is 00:28:41 So those three are kind of like in that fantasy round two, round three range for those guys. Like I kind of love those guys and think that they could just, there's just no target competition whatsoever for those players. Yeah. And I think tap playing in the slot's a massive one too because we saw a cocker last year for a time in the slot just crush. And I think that that like tap playing more than the slot would be great. And in preseason right now, he's played like 50% of his snaps in the slot. Last year, he only played like 20% in total, maybe 15%, something like that.
Starting point is 00:29:13 So that would be a pretty big upgrade, I think, just for his target chair, as you mentioned. Yeah, I don't know, maybe a 1250 parlay or a thousand yard parlay, something between all of them. It's a fun kind of, I think, parlay between everything. Because, yeah, like you're saying, I mean, it's just very narrow target trees, essentially. We're talking about, like, John Dotson and Zachari branch in Atlanta. I mean, Kyle Pitts, but a wide receiver, that's not great. Carolina, I don't feel, you know, I don't feel great about, I mean, sure, Darren Waller will be out for, you know, 40% of snaps and get targeted a bunch while he's out there. But I'm not, I like poker.
Starting point is 00:29:50 I'm not worried about those guys eating. I think the arrow is up on a year two receiver like, like tat. And then we looked at the NICO prices. Like, you have to make it probably a $12.50 parlay to make it more than a squeeze on NICO because, again he's he's the killer of the parley too just because he's the most likely to probably get hurt yeah unfortunately he's also probably the most likely to get 1500 yards as well yes they also did add some players they added sterling shepherd they added zay jones after the jaden higgins injury i think that this is more of an indictment on tank dell to be honest than it is on anyone else
Starting point is 00:30:28 and zaver hutchinson basically just like a empty calorie guy who's going to be out there blocking a ton and running routes, but not catching the ball. And I think Jalen Knoll is pretty talented. I think that he can, you know, be kind of a good vertical slot and be exciting. I mean, Sterling Shepard, though, that's like pretty direct overlap with being a slot guy there.
Starting point is 00:30:48 So if that's, again, this is a rotation to watch pay attention to and preseason pay attention to early in the season because there could be some good opportunities here with whoever's playing more because, again, I think Jalen Knowles is the most talented, but if he's not playing, it doesn't really matter. So we'll see.
Starting point is 00:31:02 Yeah. season with injuries and stuff. You could get Justin Watson out there running win sprints in this lineup. Justin Watson, dude. This guy just like never goes away. Still there. Yeah. Still around.
Starting point is 00:31:14 It's the league. Good for him. Cash and checks. Get it while you can get it, buddy. Yeah. That's all I got. That's a good little new show. We get, you know, like Connor said, we'll get a little heavier this weekend when we
Starting point is 00:31:26 Thursday, Friday from Circa. We're going to try to get some guests. We'll probably have some people maybe solidify some more. season long picks, you know, Super Bowl picks. We'll get a little bit more futures. Again, is maybe some stuff gets more widely available. Maybe we get Circa to pop some markets that are up already. We can, you know, bend some arms to try to get some of that stuff up there too.
Starting point is 00:31:48 So again, check out the show notes here. If you're looking for more information on what Circa offers, we get us up to the Million Survivor, Rake Free Contests, all really easy if you get over to their website, be a part of that this weekend. So then move the line. I've ever listened to podcast on YouTube as well. Come back.
Starting point is 00:32:05 Again, we're going to continue, you know, I'm not sure what the end season looks like, but there's going to be a lot of us. That's all I know. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.

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