Move The Line - 2026 Win Totals Overview — Early Value & Mispriced Teams

Episode Date: July 13, 2026

Move the Line is back for the 2026 NFL season! Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen survey the early NFL win-total market, discussing the teams that may be priced too high or too low, the biggest factors shaping their projections, and where bettors could find value before training camp and preseason movement begins. Sign up for Circa Sports Survivor and Circa Million — a combined $30 million guaranteed this season: circasports.com/contests Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4bets Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4 Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circa. Ryan, back here as always by Connor Allen. Dusted off the cobblubs. We haven't been here since what draft season, Connor? But football is right around the corner. Time to start talking futures. Time to start talking props and get ready for 2026 NFL season. How are you doing, my friend?

I'm great, man. I just spent time cleaning up on the MLB draft, on the NHL draft, NBA draft. I don't know any of these guys. but you know had a sizable chunk on rock chelowski to the white socks and that's worked out so spirits are high ready to roll all that over into some futures i'm going to be releasing a ton in the discord coming up and we're going to be talking about a bunch on our new show format and uh new shows up upcoming i saw them take that kid and i'm like roch like i had to watch some highlights and i'm like oh rock that's badass it's a great name just give it a k you know

like parents i mean like i'm guilty of it Yeah, you know, we're all that way too. Names are different. But yeah, it's good to be back either way. Excited to talk real NFL football. These are some mature markets that we're probably going to have to discuss, but really interested to kind of dig into it. So like Connor mentioned, a little new format.

We're going to be coming to you more often, probably shorter shows, easier for you to digest, but we want to give you, you know, more opportunities for us to react to news that is coming through and then react, you know, day to day to these markets as they kind of go. So we're going to kind of touch base high level 50,000 foot wind total view today. We're going to get into the schedule a little bit tomorrow on Tuesday's show, Wednesday, Thursday. We'll split up the AFC and the NFC and get a little bit more in the weeds on some specific teams. But talk to us a little bit about our deal and our partnership here with Circuit before we get started, Connor.

I mean, obviously lots of great offerings that they have in the space and we're excited to partner with them. Yeah, offering two insane prize pools this year, Circa Millions, which we pick. five against the spread each week. And we will both be out in Vegas doing one of those entries, Radio Row as well, and then Circa Survivor, pick one team, can't pick them again. The rest of the time, 20 million guaranteed to the winner. It's going to chop probably, but, I mean,

you're not going to have that many opportunities to win $20 million in your lifetime. So super excited for that. Can we be talking about them, probably into the season as well, occasionally having segments. So shout out to the guys at Circa. And if you guys are thinking about entering, you definitely should. Yeah, absolutely. Check that out. If you have any questions, hit us up. I'm happy to kind of walk through that with you.

But let's talk just kind of high little view of the wind turtles. This is, I think just we have to start with approach in terms of how we go about doing this. Because as we talk about all the time, betting into these markets when they first come out, whether that's like, you know, I feel like they come out a little bit earlier every year, kind of right around the draft. Pretty, you know, a lot of offerings, a lot of books by the time draft is over. but obviously you're betting into something that's not paying you out until January or February. So there's definitely a thought process into, you know, deciding when you want to get in.

You want to get in when, you know, you have a better feel for how teams have kind of navigated the draft, how they've navigated for a agency. What's your approach to handling this? Do you get in early when you think some of the numbers are softest? We've seen the market react in a handful of spots off of some of the early mind moves. Do you like to wait a little bit? Are you kind of cognizant about tying up funds? how do you just from a big picture standpoint

without getting super granular attack the future market? Yeah, I like to bet unders early and over's late because I think that that gives you a little bit more upside. So like say we bet an under today and the quarterback gets injured in preseason tomorrow, you're in a really good spot for the under. If you've been over early, you're pretty much cooked on a bet if your quarterback goes down early,

somehow in camp or a key player or something like that, rarely is a line going to move a bunch over unless they make like a massive massive trade, which again, just doesn't really happen that often, like at this point. Maybe one guy here and there, but even then you're talking about like probably 20 cents, 30 cents of juice, nothing like, you know, a whole wind total move, whereas there's just unilateral downside, I would say. So I think that's high level the way I look at it and really only go with like more of my

higher EV plays at this point. Like I'm not necessarily going to be firing the board and everything with like a small edge because like you said, not really looking to tie up money for seven months. you know, here just because it's, I mean, there's, there's plenty of other things about on during the season that we don't even be tying up funds for. So only the highest TV stuff for me. Does your, like your unit size changed based off of how early you get in or like, will you scale that at all in terms of just having to tie up funds or like, because that's always when I'm fascinated and trying to think of how do people approach this and again? I know we talk

about it, but I know I've thought about that too. Like, do I really want to put a full stake on that to have liabilities? But I also feel like this number is going to move. Is that impacted it at all for you or you just kind of like your flat stakes your flat stake when you fire that's what the number is going to be i mean depends how good you're getting it in right like we were early on the joe mixing stuff last year and like any woody marks like overs um there were some books hanging like rishy rice stuff when he got you know he was in flux so yeah i mean that kind of stuff i'm just putting as much as i can get down on you know like normal normal things i put less than a unit um you know for a full season so it's i agree like kind of same approach you in season like

you know, if you know a starter is going to be out and the line isn't adjusted, you know, I'm not betting a unit. I'm going to bet whatever they'll let me bet, you know, just because I know all over time that that's the correct decision. Yeah, probably ending up, we don't have props and we'll get into props, you know, later in this preseason and stuff, and I'm sure props are probably the same, right?

Well, you feel like we're getting good. Like, you know, why would I limp in basically, right? Like fire at that thing. Totally. Yeah. All right. Again, we're going to get into schedule analysis, some of that tomorrow.

And I think that's an interesting part of a crap ton of coaching changes, both at the head coach level and, you know, play caller level, coordinator level, I think is going to be, really interesting to kind of

does through early in the season in terms of how that's going to play itself out, but just get started. Is there a team on the board right now that kind of jumps out to you that you're like, hey, it's early, it's July, but I feel this is a good price and a good number

I want to get in. Yeah, and just real quick, you some project that I'm going to reference a ton, you know, week to week here is I've been creating my, I create my own like player based model. So essentially, um, each player on every team, uh, is assigned like a, you know, a grade and rating and all of that is weighted into a team. So like, is it player by player position by position, how much they're going to play and still work in progress. But I think I have a really strong baseline. So essentially leveraging a bunch of a base metric. Yeah. I like, I like where we're at so far. It's good. Well, just like the

advancements of, I don't know, everything, like the ability to analyze and, you know, scrape data and put it together and leverage math has been never been easier. And so I created this whole, this whole thing that I'm working with and would love to reference it because it makes sense. It makes me have a better understanding too. So like I'll go through some of the weights at some point, you know, through everything. Again, don't need to get too granular here, but obviously, like quarterback is heavily weighted, you know, edge rusher rush or pass rusher, skill positions are weighted. Like special teams has a very small weight. Running back's really small. oh wait, sorry for the running back truthers who listen.

But, you know, they can matter, but just generally not a lot. So anyways, back to the teams here. It's interesting because all of these do line up with kind of my general opinion overall. Colts right now lined at seven and a half wins. I don't pop the sharp stack on the screen for us for you to get that up there for us. Absolutely. Here you go. And so, yeah, Colts right now, seven and a half wins.

I think they're going to go over this right now. We're looking at them eight and four with Daniel Jones as a starter, and that was with him pretty banged up towards the end of the season here. They lost every game after the buy. They still have incredibly strong offensive line. Their past coaches are still solid, you know, signing Alec Pierce, who I think is going to take on an expanded role this year.

And then their defense, you know, as long as sauce is healthy, like could be legit pretty good. And so there's like, you know, the player-based model isn't closer to nine wins. I think that, again, eight is very much like a meaty range of outcomes here for them. So, yeah, I like this over. here seven and a half looks like minus 125 is the best number right now in fan duel but or mGM yeah i like these i like attacking these divisions where i don't know there's a little bit of ambiguity in terms of

like who the top team is and you know there's some situations where teams like that can emerge and i think that they uh you know a fc south is probably one of them you know we're obviously looking at a couple of playoff teams in that division last year but i still think that there's uh some questions there. And I think the Colts are probably pretty good value. Is that over seven and a half on Cesar's? Is that correct? It seems significantly off market.

Maybe that's an API thing or Cesar's odds thing because that seems like the best spot to get it comparatively. So, but seven and a half basically across the board at, you know, pretty fair price. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. Look. I don't.

So your model's closer to nine. Yeah. Closer to nine. Also, too, like I like another way to analyze things is looking at look ahead lines. so obviously sports books post like all the games for the entire season. I kind of think that just because of Daniel Jones, like injury uncertainty, like they're like this is something that I think, you know, could close eight and a half.

I think that could actually make sense when it's all said and done because he's been trending up all offseason. Like I think he's going to be good to go based on the reports that we're hearing lately is like he's going to be fine. And he was playing really well like when he was healthy. So and then they were beating beating beating the crap off of like good teams. Like Denver, I mean, they just smoked them. Like it was a moment where I was considering like, you know,

I bet against them. And I think it was like a big teaching moment when they're fully healthy. So I'm into this Colts team here at over seven and a half. We've been very pro-cults at times. We are. What can go wrong? It's always worked out so, so, so well. So another question.

I know, I know how you handle props in the season-long market. it's 99% unders and then the 1% of the overs are almost exclusively alt-overs right like if you're going to be right and you think that there's a path for someone to land the plane on an over especially in the prop market like let's bet on the ceiling outcomes right he's probably not going to limp over you're basically ensuring that the player plays a full allotment of games and performs well so in that instance like why would you bet receiving over a thousand yards why not take over 1,200. Are you a similar vein in terms of in this market when you're looking at a team over?

Like I know it's not readily available right now, but like would you think of, you know, Colts plus money over and a half or maybe even Colts money over nine and a half when you're going to get probably like, I don't know, plus 260 plus 275 on something like that in a month or two? Yeah, I'm looking at nine and a half right now plus 215 on Draft Kings. I don't mind that. I think that's good. Like you said, like I think this is going to close probably eight and a half around even, maybe a little bit juiced under.

And then it'll probably be the nine and a half will be a closer like plus one 80, something like that. So yeah, I think that there's a little bit of leeway there. And I have another one that I think like a long shot later in the show we can talk about real quick as well. Like kind of same mentality of like if you do hit over, you want to be rewarded for being right. You know, I don't want just like one unit. Like I think it's where the sprinkle on, you know, some alts as well if you are right. And so I think this is a good point and this is a good opportunity to do so. Yeah.

And we'll get into some of the other markets. You can see here in the Sharpstack in the drop-down menu. There are, you know, we could bet your number one seeds. You can bet conference winners. You know, the markets are definitely popping right now. So we'll get into all that at some point, you know, during our preseason episodes and stuff. So right now, stick around and mostly do win totals.

I'll stay here because it popped the AFC summer that I like as well. Also like the over, which we're kind of, you know, making a interesting. case for. But I believe in this Texas team, Connor, nine and a half, pretty much across the board, minus 120 on Fandul. I got questions about C.J. Stroud. I think we all should probably have some questions about C.J. Stroud based off of that playoff performance against the Patriots. That's almost a different question entirely, right? When it comes to elevating through the playoffs and into the Super Bowl and stuff like that. But in terms of a regular season team, I would expect the Texans to remain one of the best in the AFC.

I'm no surprise, absolutely enamored with this defense. It is really without any holes whatsoever. It's deep. It's deep where it needs to be. Elite pass rush, elite coaching. The secondary is fantastic. They're just kind of, you know, say flawless defensively. But, man, they, Seattle and the Super Bowl,

but you make the case that, you know, Houston was just as good of a defensive unit as they were last year. So I think nine and a half is more than fair. And again, I think that there's an upgrade right last year. They could not run the football. The offensive line was a major problem. I think that they've thrown a ton of resources.

They have to find their like emerging five and see who those guys are. But I think it's a better room heading into the season. And then they, you know, we mentioned the Joe Mixed. And then they couldn't really run the football. Woody Marks would pop here and there. That guy could not stay through four quarters of a game if his life depended on it.

But I think of David Montgomery is a fairly significant. basic baseline upgrade to the running game that they have there. Like, you know, maybe Tang Delback and they're, you know, they just have enough bodies kind of everywhere for them to be a 10 win football team. So I like them to win the division. And I like over nine and a half. Where's the model have the Texans at? Like legit right on the number.

But I think that what's interesting is so it has them as like the number one defense, obviously. And then it has their like top three and basically run D pass rush. coverage, all those, but it has them like super low on offense. I think they have like 19th ranked offense. And so I think what you talked about like if the offensive line comes together, there is a lot of upside there. You know, like they think that this can,

things can change. And also it has CJ Stroud as like a pretty kind of a below average QB, which I think, again, to be honest, it's kind of fair at this point, like right now. Kind of. But again, there's upside there. Like he did play really well.

And this is something I'm trying to like contextualize and figure out how to like put into this into this because like, Saquan Barkley is like getting not not does not grade well in the model because last year was bad I'm like okay I'd include more of like a three to five year rolling average but with certain positions like that met three to five years is like an eternity for running back yeah like how much do you include did he hit an age cliff or not an age cliff how do you separate those nuances in in data numbers I don't know we're figuring that out but like those are small details that are are volatile I think so like but I think understanding and going through it position by position like this like the Texans

this seems like more of a base case of where I have them ranked compared to where it's spit out compared to like an upside case which is like oh the offense is like decent and like maybe it flirts around top 10 and then this team ends up being an 11 or 12 win team. It's probably fair though. I mean, you know, he deserves to have some questions. I think right around league average or maybe a little bit below was probably fair. Again, I think they just dealt with a handful of impactful injuries last year and again around the offensive line too. that made it even worse. We're going to get you like over a Bettsburgh's golf in the rabbit hole doing, you know, model waiting and having to make these decisions every week.

I play. I use your model. I use your as models. I don't do my own waiting. But yeah, I've been playing more golf and using your guys data to, to play some entries like like 20 here and there. I'll probably play this weekend.

Today's only only Monday, so I got time. It's a big week, right? Major, yeah. Yeah, it's a good one. But yeah, we have to make, I have to make those decisions weekly of like our recent form but like recent form can be super noisy isn't particularly in golf like one season of football data what do you make of that like schedule based injury based injuries around you like you know so it is really hard to get an understanding of like true value of a player and how they can impact and I think that's

what you're trying to kind of do in the model too which I'm I'm excited as the season goes along I can only imagine that thing's going to get a little tighter and you'll have a better feel for it so it's good stuff What else you got? Yeah, another one that I'm definitely going to release officially in the Discord here. Miami Dolphins under 4 and a half wins. I mean, this is one of the most egregious rosters I think I've seen just like top to bottom in a while. In addition to assigning like, you know, win totals to teams, I created like a spread model. So essentially like how much better or worse a team is based on their players.

They are against an average team. So we have, you know, the Rams is the best team in the league right now. It has the Rams of the best team in the league. Six and a half point favorites against an average team. It has the Dolphins, 8.1 underdogs against an average team. And like we're talking about the gap here. It's like six and a half, eight and eight point one from top to bottom. 14 point favorites.

Like that's probably about right. Honestly, if you look at the Rams like at home or even on neutral against the stalls, it's going to be around, I don't know, 12 to 14. I would guess somewhere in that range. So, you know, I think this team here, though, like Malik Willis, throwing to, what is it, Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington. Offensive line is one of the worst in the leagues. I mean, they have Devon A chain. That's, like, a redeeming quality.

Otherwise, they're, like, basically the worst in almost every category. Coaching staff is not really inspiring at all. Looking at, like, Bobby Sloak and Jeff Halfley. They are six-point underdogs in 11 of their games using, like, the look-ahead lines. six or more point of underdogs. I just don't see how the, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league. It's like the toughest schedules in the league,

according to posing win totals. Like, Malik Willis on his own was awful with the Titans, played really well with the Packers when he had one of the best coaches in the league, when he had a great offensive line, when he had a good running game, and they were still only dialing up like 15 to 25 passes a game for the guy. And he was really good. But I don't think that that's a great indicator necessarily.

of what he's going to be with nothing around him and no like coaching staff that can save him. And I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball that well. Like that's, that's another thing that's going to hide bad teams. Maybe you run the ball, get out of there, maybe get some lucky turnovers and you win a couple games.

I don't even real do that either. Like this legit could be like a two-win team. Yeah. It's rough. I just want to look at this. We'll probably go in more detail tomorrow. I touch on this every year. You know, each team in the division gets a unique three.

You know, you play everyone in your division. You play everyone in, you know, an AFC, you know, home and away, the same on the NFC side. And then everyone in the division plays a unique three. Dolphins get the bangles, your Colts, and the Niners. That's a tough, that's a tough unique three draw. It's above average projected for 27 and a half wins, where the league averages right on 25.8.

So for a team that was pretty poor last year, they're not getting a super easy draw. Yeah, coaching staff is not, it's not exuding a lot of confidence. Like people weren't tripping over themselves to go grab Jeff Halfley. I think in the Middle League Willis is interesting, but like you referenced, interesting is different than like competitive. And then it doesn't even matter.

Like you're throwing to an XFL, you know, type of pass catching core. Like he's just not that guy where he's elevating a below average pass catchers. Like maybe he is. I don't think we think he is. Maybe he is. But it's behind a bad offensive. it's bad you know four month four and a half plus money feels like a really nice play there's some props out there like malique willis is like 17 touchdown passes that which is like

over one a game on average i mean i don't that's just this crazy high to me that's it was like there's no way he's thrown over more than one touchdown pass like to who like you know what you know what i mean like who's gonna catch that touchdown passes for this guy it's a eight eight change is gonna score 17 receiving touchdowns or what this is crazy it's yeah it's bad dude it's bad i you know it's rough they haven't what they haven't won playoff game and like i think since you've been alive except my it's like a it's a it's a bad bad run so

it's a little tough from football to like punt all the way to the bottom to kick yourself back up um they had an interesting draft they had a lot of like young defensive talent but like it's not mattering for 2026 i promise uh it's a bad bad bad football team um yeah i'm the new uh I think in one of the other sexy teams that's gotten a little bit of steam that I think is interesting here, are the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are still available at 7.5. I know there was some 6.5 at Open.

I mean, just kind of a confluence of things happening here. Again, going back to like division full of ambiguity. I don't know that we feel that the, you know, bucks are running away with things. I don't know that we believe that Carolina is like running away with things, even though the, you know, playoff team last year. They won the division. No one wanted to. Falcons have a lot of questions at quarterback to begin with. Just the quality of that roster outside of a couple of, like, you know,

fun, buzzy offensive weapons. Depth is a question there. And I just think the Saints are kind of trending, you know, in a lot of different ways. I think the offensive line. They've drafted a ton of high caliber first round offensive linemen in the last handful of years. That's starting to gel and show up and away. Tyler Shirk, I think, was really intriguing last year and I think better than we thought.

I usually go out and add some more talent in the first round in Jordan Tyson this year. I don't love what they did spending Travis AetN, but again, that's a better running back room just on paper in terms of overall talent. And the defense is fine. Like they aren't great anywhere, but they're not really bad anywhere either.

So I think the Saints are there to really grab a division that people and no one seems to want to win and I like the seven and a half so um any thoughts there is the model in line with me at all or thought yeah has it has them at 7.8 wins when you adjust for the schedule has him like as like a below average team but when you factor in the schedule has them a little bit over also again another factors are like how do you quantify jordan tyson does he play how much does he play how much is he quantify uh an eighth overall pick. I tend to think that he's a pretty good player and I think he's like a perfect compliment there. Chris Oliva, if he's healthy, he isn't practiced at all all off season. So like,

does he start the season slow? So like, I think Tyler Shugg also like, how much do you wait? You have to wait like the back half is of his last season. So I don't think any of that's really super factored in. So I think like all that's still being higher on the Saints than their seven-and-up win total is probably a pretty good sign to understand. They're like, okay, they're probably a little underrated here in the market. Cudos to anyone that grabs six and a halfs early at open. This is one of the ones that has moved. And then we go back to the unique three draw, by far the easiest unique three in the

league. They have the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants outside of their division and the teams at their division plays. So by far, the easiest at 17.5 projected wins collectively for that group. So just kind of a, again, a meeting of things here where I get a nice little draw and a team that I think is ascending after a nice offseat. So, yeah, St. Saints are interesting.

I have to look at maybe that and a little bit more on the NFC pod here later this week. What else you got? Yeah, well, another team that I think is pretty underrated that we were fading last year was the Detroit Lions. You know, we were big fading in them last year with changing offensive coordinator and maybe some concerns there, like, you know, maybe the rest of the division being a little bit better. Now, you know, if they get fully healthy, they have two very good safeties.

They're, you know, they have plenty of skill position weapons here. The offensive line is good. they hired Drew Petzing. I think it's like a much better just like culture fit alongside of Dan Campbell. I don't know. He just strikes me as someone who would mesh a lot better and would probably just be more aligned with kind of what he's looking to get out of this team. And then if you look at the strength of schedule, I mean, it is.

I think they're favored in all but two games here this season. And one's at Buffalo and one's at Chicago. Now again, division's still tough. I would have them pretty squarely as the best team here. the player-based model has them at like a little over 11 wins right now their model's 10 and a half and alongside this i teased earlier i think Detroit lines have the most wins this season is pretty interesting it's like 14 to 1 right now on draft kings it's like six or seventh best odds like we see all the time like teams that are they the best team on paper no but like if you give them

their schedule like of course it's going to be a good uh good you know outcome here so and i think that they're better than just like the average team that coasts to like a 15 win season or whatever, 14-win season. I think that they can win, you know, again, 12, 13, 14 games, and then losing the playoffs. Like, that's a very possible outcome here for this Detroit Lions team. So 14-1, I thought was pretty good odds. And then over 10 and a half, I think it's kind of interesting. Probably not in a rush to take that.

I did take it a little bit, you know, I did take a little stab there. But again, kind of the, the under's early over's late type of vibe there. I don't think this is going to get like steamed out or anything. So, yeah, I think that's probably fair. I like some of the things you highlight there too and just a natural positive regression team after they ran into it a little bit last year after kind of being an ascending team

they were easy to kind of pick on at times but 10 and a half minus 110 I think is probably probably more than fair there on draft kings don't hate that at all continuity a little bit with the coaching staff and a lot of the key players there and I think just more I know I highlighted David Montgomery

as being a positive for the Texans I think that's true but I also think more Jamir Gibbs is a, you know, a positive for the Lions too. So I'm excited to see what that looks like. If we can just, again, get that guy over the finish line. And let's see if we can get, you know, 17 games of Jemir Gibbs. It's going to be pretty exciting to see. So I like that one.

I like the division's tough, but like you're probably going about it the right way. I'm going to go against one of the divisional opponents that I just highlighted with the Saints. I'm not buying Carolina. at seven and a half. I know they won the division last year. It just felt like they just kind of out kicked their coverage in a lot of different ways. I don't know that they had an offseason that makes me really believe. I'm not necessarily a believer in the quarterback.

I just think that there are a lot of questions more offensive line health issue questions up front from a quarterback that I think is very pressure sensitive. The defense is fine. I think below average in some ways that you want to be good. I don't think they're a great pressure generating team. I don't think that they have. You know, I think nowadays you really need like three-edged rushers to be a legit

playoff team. You oftentimes need one that can just literally go out and beat anybody. They just don't have that really on the roster. Nothing that I that I trust. There's depth questions at linebacker. You know, J.C. Horn struggled to stay on the field. There's, I think, a lot, enough questions for me to think that there's some regressions here on the Panthers.

again, getting plus money to the under it's seven and a half. I don't think this is like a five-win football team, but them winning six, seven games were not surprised me at all. And again, even if you're seeing some really big minus seven and a half numbers, I think we could maybe even see this move a little bit if there's some pro-Carolina's team at any point. So under seven and a half plus money for Carolina is a lean that I like quite a bit. What do you think? Yeah, nice.

I know we were like, I think every week we would come on here and be like, we don't really know how this is happening, but the Panthers just keep winning. And so, yeah, I'm not opposed to going back to the, back to the well here with that. I'm looking at their look ahead lines right now. They're technically only favored in two games, two, maybe, maybe more. There's some games that are off in like week 16 and week 18 here at the Steelers. And then against the Falcons. So I don't know, they're probably going to be close to even.

But they have a ton of games that are all like three point underdogs, four point underdogs to like, you know, basically even. So it's going to be a lot of really tight, close games. Like how often can they win those again? I'm not super convinced. Player model has him like 7.3 wins, so leans under there. And then, yeah, like, there's a lot of what-ifs, too, you know, about, about Ted, about the, about Bryce, like, how often, how can they move the ball well? I mean, the Chuba Hubbard stuff, we can get into more with, like, the player takes here.

But, I mean, he was, like, injured slash bench last year. And now they're lying on a guy come back from Achilles and other stuff. So I just, I don't know. I think there's a lot of question marks by the team. I struggle to think teams that, you know, like the Bears, teams that win in unsustainable ways are not teams that I necessarily want to be backing. Not always fading. I think in this case, fading makes sense.

But, yeah, it's tough. Yeah, the Bears are their own unique thing, which I'm sure we can give them an entire podcast because they probably deserve it. And even in hindsight, the Bears' 20-25 season. It was such a wild, wild experience. But just going back to, you know, the schedule piece. This is where you highlight the Saints. But again, the Panthers have a first-place schedule.

Their unique three are Denver, Seattle, and Philly. I mean, that's really tough. And then if you think that they're basically coin flips against, you know, the bucks and falcons, right? And you can home and away that however you want. Or, you know, same thing with the Saints. Like, I think these teams are all fairly even. When you get a draw like that that the Panthers have with the first place schedule, I think that's just a tougher, you know, road to walk.

So, you know, I would expect them to be, you know, sizable, you know, at least more than a field goal underdog in all three of those spots against Denver, Seattle, and Philly. So Fain the Panthers, again, not a huge, huge step back, but I think it's probably a six or seven one football team. So you're going to give me plus money. I think that that's probably a pretty good thing.

So it's all I got. Love it. I think that's enough. People are going to get a lot of us. We're going to do this four days a week. So you got anything else with people before we wrap? No. I mean, sign up for Circa's contest here.

Survivor millions. We're going to be talking about our five favorite to get spread picks each week on here. It's going to be great. It would be awesome. So definitely make sure to hop in there. Can't wait. I'm ready to get into that.

It feels like we're, usually it's like August 1st, but it feels like football's here. I definitely feel like it next week for me when we get on the other side of the last major championship on the golf side. But it is coming. So move the line where we listen to podcast.

You can find us here as well on YouTube. If you want to jump in and hang with us, jump in the chat when we go live, get screen shares and stuff like that. 4 for live is the best place for you to do that. Come back tomorrow. Tuesday's episode will be a little bit more of a schedule breakdown, how to attack it.

Connor's already talking about how many games a team is favored in the season. I'm talking about some of the unique three draw stuff. We'll kind of look into that and how to approach it. We'll get into a little bit more of the specific win totals in the AFC and NFC on Wednesday and Thursday. So come back. Check us out and again, subscribe. because we are tuning up and getting ready for football.

Thanks, everybody.