Move The Line - 9 Early 2023 NFL Bets We LOVE That You NEED to Place Right NOW!

Episode Date: June 15, 2023

Looking to make some winning NFL bets in early 2023? Look no further! In this video, we unveil our top 9 expert-backed NFL bets that are sure to boost your chances of success. From underdogs poised for an upset to breakout players ready to shine, we've done the research so you don't have to. Get exclusive insights and analysis on these early 2023 NFL bets that we absolutely love. Don't miss out on the opportunity to maximize your winnings—watch now and make your bets with confidence!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

All right, we are 84 days away from the start of the 2023 season and it comes to NFL markets in June. Sportsbooks are pretty generous lovers. Not only do we have the ability to get down at every week one game right now, look at lines are available as well. So on this week's episode of Move the Line, we're going to talk about a few of our favorite week one positions and then take a quick peek ahead as well. So let's dig in. Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by my friends, my football friends, even though it is golf season.

Start of the first round of the U.S. Open. Whose idea was it to talk football on this glorious glorious day i don't know probably mine at some point i was not thinking ahead but uh conor allen how we doing uh definitely have been better stress of buying a house is uh you know getting to me over here and uh yeah but no nothing to relieve the pressure like talking some football i mean betting football can just make all the stress go away as long as i don't have to sweat it right now true we had a little bit of time there sharp clark here as well clark how we doing bud good yeah i tweeted out about how i only really feel alive when i'm placing nfo bets and it's it's been what now four months or something since the super bowl i don't know and it's like looking at week one and seeing lines you can bet into is super exciting for me.

And I'm enjoying it. We're going to be here every week leading up to the season, coming up on our team or divisional previews soon. It is getting close. So there is lots of other great original content here on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube page. Please subscribe if you'd like to support the free content. Thumbs up, comment on the video goes a long way in helping us do so. Jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite week one play is. We'd love to hear from you. Still available in podcast form as well. So subscribe there too. Five stars, all those things, again, help us with the free content.

It's not quite like the future market, Clark, where your money is out there until late December or January. But like I said, 80 plus days away away from week one i'd love to get your thoughts here before we dig into the specifics how aggressive are you when it comes to attacking the week one lines and even more so the look aheads since you know there are a few books that you basically get down on any game that you want the look ahead is easy i don't really play look aheads um last year i did like i looked through the schedule and put $5 on a bunch of games that I liked to see, you know, how would this position me as the season unfolds?

And I think I went 50-50 on those bets. There's just so much uncertainty. And my biggest thing is reacting to what we see on the field. And I just don't want to lock myself in any meaningful positions this early. But week one, I, in certain circumstances, and we'll get to one of them, I will bet them early. But week one, I, in certain circumstances, and we'll get to one of them, I will bet them early. Like Bookmaker right now is taking $2,000 bets. I think Circa is advertising $5,000 bets on week one lines. So, you know, unless you're like a major better, in which case

you're not listening to this podcast, frankly, you can get down as much money as you want on these games. So it's not a question of liquidity, It's a question of, is this a position you want to be logged into? And is there a chance that you'll lose the value of a potential number at this time? Don't pigeonhole our audience, Clark. It's not fair. Connor, how about you? Is this something that you've dug into a little bit? I like Clark's idea there of just literally sprinkling in a little bit of money for the most part,

just to be able to properly track where that line moved or if you're on the right side of it or where's your, you know, your early season sitting here in the middle of June where your early inclination is correct. Is this something that you jumped into or considered approaching maybe a little bit more aggressively this year? Yeah. I find a couple of spots I think every year that I really specifically like

like two teams that are trending, I think the opposite directions or that least like one thing that I specifically would focus on where I don't think that the line is really accounting for how good or how bad a team is. So you're kind of getting like two factors working in the same position. Whereas like, you know, if the Eagles end up being way better than everyone expects like last year and then the other team they're playing ends up being way worse, like I think you're just in a really good spot

to get a lot of closing line value. But particularly this season, I think you're just in a really good spot to get a lot of closing line value. But particularly this season, I think that there's a couple of spots early in the season to reduce some of the like, you know, variance of like how good or bad a team is or kind of like adjusting as we see a team, just given like what we, I think we know. So I'll explain more when we get to the specific example,

but that's just how I'd approach it. Yeah, good point there. I want to let folks know, great time to scoop up a betting sub at 444. Betting sub gets you access to everything on our site, in particular, all of the bets that we place and push through in our Discord. Again, lots of great ways to do so. If you are looking to check us out for cheap, there's a couple ways to do so. First, we partner with Vivid Picks. If you're not familiar with Vivid, they're a parlay pick'em site, similar to some of the other ones out there in the space

You can use our promo code four for four bet when you sign up They're gonna match your first deposit up to $200, but all you need to do is deposit five dollars Literally five dollars access to the betting stuff for three months. I mean, it's a great deal That's gonna cover again into the season now at this point and we've done that as well with no house advantage. Again, you can DM us, message us in the chat here. Let us know more info. You can get the links here in the show notes too, to check that out. Again, great way to get access. Otherwise go to four for four.com slash plans.

And it's good with the betting sub again, access to everything. No matter what you're doing this off season, football wise, we got you covered at four for four. I'm going to kick you to Clark. Let you get started with your first to kick it to you, Clark. Let you get started with your first week one spot that you like here. Yeah, so the first one is one that I'm actually not playing right now, but it's something I'm keeping my eye on, and that's the Packers-Bears game. Right now, the Bears are favored by 2.5 in most spots, and I will caution.

The pinnacle right now has, I think, minus two and a half, minus 117 on the Bears. So the sharpest book that takes a lot of sharp bets likes the Bears and doesn't want exposure to the Bears right now at current prices. I like the Packers. I think that the Jordan Love experiment has a wide range of outcomes. You know, this is a game that has a lot of variance on both sides. We don't really know how the Bears' offense is going to look with all the new pieces. What we do know is that the Bears' defense sucks, and they didn't really do much to address it. We know the Packers have a decent offensive line when healthy, two really good running backs. And when a team built like that, built to succeed by, you know, being consistent and

consistently moving the ball, plays against a really bad defense, it's usually pretty easy on the quarterback to just kind of finish the job, right? Like a lot of it is done for him. So I think the Packers offense is going to have some success against the Braves defense. And then on the other side of the ball, I'm just not a huge believer that Justin Fields is a elite difference maker. Like last year, you know, people celebrating how much he improved as a player and he was really good and he was really flashy, put up a lot of stats, made a bunch of big plays, put a bad team

on his back and won three games. So how much better does he have to be this year for them to move to like an eight or nine win team or even an average team, he's got to be significantly better. And I just don't see that happening. So my lean is on the Packers. And now I want to talk a little bit about how to play it, right. So it's at two and a half. And usually you want to say, oh, plus two and a half, like, I kind of like to tease that up to eight and a half. But I would advise against teasing early season games, especially week one games, because teasers benefit from a hyper efficient market, frankly, and the week one lines are just not efficient. We know so little about these teams, especially when there's differences at quarterback from last year and other differences. So I wouldn't tease the

Packers. What I would do instead is keep an eye on it and see if it moves to plus three. If it moves to plus three, I like the Packers. Otherwise, I think we can kind of play into the variance and maybe bet an alternate spread on the Packers minus two and a half, Packers minus five and a half, Packers minus nine and a half, if you can find good prices, because we want to play into the variance of all the uncertainties in this game and lean into the idea of the Packers taking a lead and kind of building that lead with a good run game and good defense and kind of taking control of that game. So that's kind of how I'm looking to play it. I haven't played it yet, but it's a game I'm definitely keeping my eye on. Connor, I think that was great advice from Clark. Again, like handicap agnostic I think just embracing some early season unknowns right and how to approach it especially as it relates to the you know again because that is in the teaser zone at two and a half there any thoughts on the Packers and Bears this year I think they are an interesting conversation in that division where they kind of feel like a coin flip you know

basically when you look at some of their future numbers they're they're basically identical for the most part any thoughts there on Clark's first one? Yeah, I kind of agree. Honestly, I think that I keep looking at this. I don't want to play a plus two and a half, just to be honest. I do think it's more of a coin flip. I do think, though, that there is like Jordan Love is also pretty volatile because we just don't really know what we're going to get. But I think that the Packers have more pieces just around just in general, like not offensively, but like just generally a better roster than the Bears.

And I know that might be a little bit of a hot take, but we're looking at a seven and a half win total. It feels like a lot for this Bears team. I don't know. Like I thought we were going to see maybe a six and a half or something like that kind of entering the season, but seven and a half is it's pretty rich for this team because I think they're missing still a ton of pieces.

I know that we're hating on the chat here. It mentioned Jack Sanborn tackle God, you know, that's your guy Noonan, but yeah, I think if you can get this a plus three, which I think we will see a three closer to a week one or some point in the office and we'll see a three fan duel pop in with a minus one 18 as well. Sharp mentioned that pinnacles stand pretty close. I mean, it'll happen. So yeah, I would, I would wait. I don't mind that at all. It's not something I'm jumping to play, but I do think that that's where the value will be. You got Jack Sanborn in the roster. you go out and throw a bunch of resources at tj edwards and tremaine edmonds like i don't understand it but hey they had money to spend they had holes burning in their pockets and i'd rather have seen them go out and like

overspend for jamal dean or something like go out and address corner do something a little bit different so yeah i don't know it's going to be an interesting conversation for sure. But I think Clark's point on how to approach it, I think is, is really unique and good advice just in general. Connor, how about you first one for week one? Yeah. So my first one is going to be laying the points with the Eagles here against the Patriots. And I think specifically there's a couple of mismatches that I really like. One thing that came to light for me and something that we saw last year with the Bears, actually, Justin Fields against this Patriots team, was how slow the linebackers were. And that's just something that I visually saw.

And he ran circles around it. But then I dug into the numbers. So we got two guys primarily here. We're looking at Juwan Bentley as well as Tavai. Bentley ran a 4.75. Tavai ran a 4.86, 40-yard dash. That's in the sixth and 20th percentile among linebackers for speed score. And so when the numbers match up with what I already saw,

and now you're looking at playing another mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts, that already there's just a big checkbox for me. Looking at this Eagles offense, they still project to be extremely good in this spot. The defense, I think is probably a little bit overrated given what we saw in the Superbowl, but I just don't think that that matters that much against the Patriots offense. That's missing the firepower to like truly expose them. And so I also, the more I've been thinking about it, I think this whole Bill O'Brien narrative

about like how much better it's going to be is a little bit overrated. I think we're looking at a guy who was essentially a donkey for multiple years in the NFL, went to Alabama, had great season with incredible weapons, and then now is back in the Patriots and supposed to just fix everything. I mean, it will definitely be better than what we saw, but I don't think they're going to make some sick jump or anything or be significantly improved. Offensive line projects to be middle of the pack. Weapons are just okay. I know, Noonan, that you are a believer in the defense. Sharp has talked about it before. I kind of parsed through the numbers against their historically bad run against bad teams last year. It was like eight games. They were elite against every other team, which included a lot of very

good teams. I do have to put that caveat. It included a lot of very good teams in the out of sample. They were bottom five in basically every metric, EPA, explosive pass rate, like everything. So my point is though, is that I think the Eagles fall more into that other bucket, like very much closer. So when you kind of put all those factors together, I like the Eagles minus four and a half.

I'm going to be playing some alts as well. I think you could play it up to honest, like nine and a half. I think that they could, they could easily like run away with this game, even in New England. Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to sit here and fanboy the Patriots when I think your takes are correct. I do think that the Patriots are going to be better. Do I think the Patriots are going to be good?

Do I think even better really makes an impact in that division or in that conference? I just don't. It's like a pebble in the water there. We still could see DeAndre Hopkins. I think that helps them a little bit. But yeah, at this point in the career, is he like a field stretcher?

They're going to need some of these young guys to defensive or offensively to really take a step forward. Taequann Thornton, whether it's Kayshaun Booty, they're going to need a lot from Kendrick Bourne. Some of these guys that they're going to have to rely on to be difference makers offensively, one of those three has to emerge. That's a tough spot to be in.

Yeah, I think they'll be better on both sides of the ball, but they're probably still a seven-win team and will probably get boat raced by the Eagles. They are historically a pretty slow starting team too. Belichick often talks about that too. Early season games, he still is looking almost like a preseason game where he's really trying to figure out rotations, especially defensively where they like to run a bunch of guys out there deep.

Probably maybe still see some learning curve offensively with what Bill O'Brien's bringing in. So yeah, I mean, I don't hate it. I do think that the Eagles, even though they obviously exceeded expectations last year, like we could still be underrating them this year. And I, cause again, they had some turnover, but I think they did a really good job at, you know, replacing that too. So Clark,

any quick thoughts on Philly, new England? Yeah. I, I mean, this line could keep going up as we approach week one. I like what Sam Lipscomb mentioned in the chat that the, apparently the Patriots are going to be shifting towards lighter personnel.

That's an interesting thought because, you know, they've struggled with mobile quarterbacks in the past. And so maybe having a little bit more speed will help them at least try to contain Jalen Hurts in the run game. But I really don't see how they're going to combat the Eagles power run game or with two weapons downfield. You know, like the Eagles have really struggled in those situations.

The Patriots defensively struggled in those situations. So there's nothing really favorable for the Patriots in this matchup other than Bill Belichick has just always found a way to compete with good teams. And so to the extent that carries you, then fine. But other than that, I really don't think there's much there. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch that because I agree. I do think we probably see some movement. And that's part of the piece here, right? Is we're essentially trying to get into the spots where maybe we're going to beat some closing line value three months down the road as we approach these games.

I think this is another spot for me that could do that. The Seattle Seahawks are five and a half point favorites at home against the Rams. This is minus 110 on Caesars. I think this, you know, it's six already in some spots, but minus 110 on Caesars is readily available in a nice number. I think it should be at least six. And again again like stuff matters we're working around key numbers in the nfl these are two teams in my opinion

that continue to go in the opposite direction i think seattle had an extra another excellent offseason i think they really killed last offseason it's another good one they've added depth on both sides of the ball uh and this is just about anti-rams as much as it is pro seahawks the rams have i, probably top to bottom, like the worst roster in the league. Outside of Aaron Donalds, the defense is a disaster. They are rocking Robert Rochelle and DeAndre Kendrick as the projected starters on the outside at corner. They ranked 192nd, 217th in PFF cornerback grade last season uh bobby wagner switched back to the team uh that he grew up playing with he's back in seattle bobby wagner was awesome last year for the ramps um

really again having already made some like baseline projections for tackles knowing that these like i'm in the weeds here i knew two guys on this defense heading into this year it is a awful awful team. Now we're dealing with a quarterback, Matthew Stafford, coming off of, you know, again, multitude of injuries, concerning ones, back, elbow, Cooper Cup, I think will be fine. They'll step right in. But really outside of it, it's again, it's a bottom half offensive line. Even if you think the offensive line is better, if they deal with any cluster injuries up

front, like they did last year, the team's really bad. You're really looking at like, what is this? Like, what's the kid's name? Like Puka, not only like the kid that they drafted out of like the fifth or sixth round, everyone thinks he's like going to be the guy that's who they're relying on to like get offensive snaps. It's going to be the Cooper cup show. They tried to like release cam acres mid season. And now he's just going to be their guy like the bell cow like i just don't see it it's thin uh and it's a tough tough schedule and i think that they get uh vote raced in week one against seattle clark what are your thoughts can't can't go with you on this one um so hold on you told me defense didn't matter and then defense mattered in your handicap with the bears and the Packers. So defense, defense can matter. But uncertainty around defense, I, you know, like we tend to think

that we know like, Oh, look at all these players names. Like we haven't even heard of them. We don't know who they are. They're going to be terrible. And that's probably true, but we don't know how defenses gel. Like there's a lot of question marks here the rams as a team are a very difficult team to figure out i've talked about this before you know stafford and cup and aaron donald are kind of in the twilight of their career uh i doubt they're just going to want to fold and tank for next year but then the rest of the roster is kind of hopeless um so i'm just not looking to play them against them as big underdogs right right? I mean, you've got a good quarterback and a good receiver and what I think will be an improved offensive line.

And so dodging the Matthew Stafford touchdown bombs is not a game I want to play when the Seahawks have to cover a big number. So that's why I can't go with you there. Yeah. What do you got, Connor? I almost prefer kind of like betting their season-long win total at the price

or like to miss the playoffs and laying the juice there because I think that there's some underlying issues with Stafford and his health. And we've been kind of hearing that as well. So like, I worry that, you know, Stafford and cup are enough to like keep this game close. I do agree. This should probably be six. I think that's probably fair. So five and a half, you're getting a little value there, but I worry that like, that's enough to make a difference. Obviously there are tons of worries about this defense. So like, I mean, it may not matter, like if they score 30 points, like, you know, obviously a higher scoring game, it's tough to keep it within a closer spread, but yeah, I guess like I, that's my worry. I think in a long-term perspective, there's

a ton of outcomes where Stafford isn't able to play the whole season. You know, what are they going to do there? So that would be my only concern. I still, I think I would lean with you though. I would think I would go with five and a half. I had to play the whole season you know what are they going to do there so that would be my only concern i still i think i would lean with you though i would think i would go with five and a half i had to play aside yeah you just can't keep uh go ahead clark they're just so thin all down the roster so like any any set of injuries and their season is is gone and so i don't necessarily want to play against them while they're fully healthy but yeah the long-term view is very pessimistic they just they have had a unique approach to team building and it worked they won a super bowl but now it's coming to roost right you can't keep just punting on the draft um adding these undrafted free agents adding these like you know they had like i think 10 day three picks this year like these guys are like next up this

season if they have anything to happen up front to the two guys that i just told you that are terrible so they're you know it's just it's paper thin and if to clark's point if they do start to gel if we don't know these guys and the way that the defense starts to gel it probably happens later in the year right i would think versus coming out of the gates and being like this over-performing team uh to start just as a lot of young undrafted free agents second year fifth and sixth round picks, they're going to be called upon to take major, major snap shares defensively. I have questions offensively outside of Cooper Cup too. So Clark, how about your second one? My second one is the opposite of the first in that I think you can play this one now.

And that's because it's hovering between a key number and a non-key number. So Thursday night opener is Lions at Chiefs. It's going to be an exciting game, in my opinion. I'm very much looking forward to it. At some shops, it's plus seven for the Lions. And in other shops, it's plus six and a half for the Lions. And what that typically means is that it's unlikely to go above seven or under six and a half, right? So we've got some interest at Lions plus seven. We've got some interest at seven or under six and a half, right? So we've got some interest

at, you know, Lions plus seven, we've got some interest at Chiefs minus six and a half. So I would think that if you like either of those sides, now is a fine time to play it because you're, you're going to miss one of those numbers. I'm not sure which one I personally think that we're going to miss the seven, I think it's going to close under seven. And that's why I like the Lions in this one, that this is a Chiefs offense that is so good that it really just scores against anybody. And the Lions biggest weakness is their defense. And so the incremental gain that the Chiefs get from being an elite offense against a bad defense is not as much as you might think. Like they put up what 38 in the Super Bowl against the Eagles,

like they're probably going to put up 38 against the lions. So, so it's like, they just don't, their biggest strength is kind of muted in this kind of game where the lions offense is its strength. And if they can win the offensive line battle and control the line of scrimmage,

they can run the ball successfully. They can complete short passes. They can keep my homes off the field and reduce the number of possessions in this game. And getting a whole touchdown spread just opens up so many opportunities for the Lions to either keep the game slow and close or get that back door that they're so famous for under Dan Campbell. Like rarely do we get this version of the Lions with this many points. And I think that's a, that's a huge value spot to take

even against the best team in the NFL. It's not that I'm low on the Chiefs or high on the Lions. This is a situational matchup advantage spot where I think the Lions, given the number, have a lot of ways to get there. And I will say that the counter argument is that the Chiefs perform really, really well in week one every year that Mahomes has been quarterback. Andy Reid always performs well after a bye. We know this. It's well-documented. When he has time to prepare, they come out firing. I have the exact numbers written down somewhere, but the Chiefs basically score almost 40 points every week one.

So I think if that kind of stuff matters to you, then I think there's caution here. But I just think that that's also a small sample size against some really bad defenses. And just sort of you know it's anecdotal it's narrative it's not the way that i make my wagers so i think numbers wise the lions make sense here um and i would play it now rather than later if you can get plus seven which which is available yeah plus seven matters here connor yeah absolutely and uh as attaboy jam says in the

chat backdoor cover definitely in play i believe it was the eagles and lions last year with the most ridiculous backdoor cover they were up by like 20 something uh yeah dan campbell definitely does not quit there and i agree that the the overall handicap like the lions are probably closer to the chiefs in this spot i personally don't love betting against patrick bones but i think that that presents value uh in the betting market because i don't love betting against Patrick Mahomes, but I think that that presents value in the betting market because I don't think that a lot of people do. So I would agree there and would lean with you again on the plus seven. Yeah, I think it's the right line. I think it's the right handicap. I like how you did it.

I think it is definitely like the Andy Reid off a buy thing is I think definitely a narrative and it is a small sample and it's a small sample that you, again, we're just putting everything in the same bucket. And to your point, like the matchups within that sample are very different now that's we're stretching that sample over a very long period of time and that becomes even more noisy because like the teams the team that he's coaching changes so that gets very difficult i think it's definitely something i buy into though in terms of like just narratives overall there's just enough of a sample size of

andy reid with prep uh whether it's week one super bowl off the bye week that he uh comes in and has a great game plan so i think it's going to be a great football game and an exciting one to watch and another one that's small sample we just the chiefs kind of struggled of late against the number and part of that is probably the patrick mahomes bump that you know the chiefs get in the public markets as well people not wanting to hold anti Mahomes tickets. Makes sense there too. Connor, how about number two for you, buddy? Yeah, my number two.

And then my look ahead are kind of correlated a little bit as well. Just fading the Arizona Cardinals early on in the season. So week one here, it looks like this line already moved. I put minus five and a half. I think minus six is still fine. I don't know if this gets to seven just because laying seven on a team like Washington is a lot, but it's just so unbelievable how bad this Cardinals team projects to be overall. We still don't necessarily know who's going to be starting QB.

I mean, Colt McCoy showed up to camp. So I guess technically we'll probably see him. But if we look at how Colt McCoy did last year, he was among the quarterbacks with 100 attempts. Colt McCoy ranked 46th in EPA per dropback, back 39th and success rate 45th and yards per attempt 46 and adjusted yards per attempt. That was with Deandre Hopkins for all four games. Marquise Brown played two of those games. Deandre Hopkins accounted for nearly 40% of his receive of his passing yards. He's obviously gone as well. It was a lot of like quick throws without Deandre Hopkins. Like that's just not

really Marquise Brown's game. So yeah, maybe marquise brown takes a step up but it's not necessarily marquise brown's game there specifically this defense projects to be one of the worst um and so i'm i'm really worried about this cardinal team especially early on looking at kyler murray's injury if we look at some of the reports the reporting around it has been like we need him to be 100 like we want to be 100 to me screams, he's not going to play for a couple of weeks at least. And so week one, I don't expect him to play specifically. And that's the only, in my mind, that's the only real downside of making this bet now is that there's a little bit, I mean like a small uncertainty that somehow Kyler's able to play, but I'm, I'm pretty confident given with the reporting that we don't see him.

And on the Washington side, I mean, their defense was legit, like, you know, good for a lot of last year by the metrics, fifth and EPA per play third against the run six and explosive run rate 10th and explosive pass rate kept almost all their starters. Um, again, like I think this Cardinals offense is going to be horrendous. Like I think there's reasonable pass where this offense does not score like 10 points. And so covering a number of like, like a 17 and 10 win, I think is more than reasonable. Um, and the washington offense i don't want to be bullish on them specifically i mean eric b enemy offensive coordinator dogs of lions so i think there's a little bit of questions but uh surrounding pieces around sam hell are

interesting um you know i i'm i'm bullish i guess a little bit i would say on this offense more than relative to market um but like at the same time i I don't want to be over, go overboard here. So if we're getting to five and a half, six against a team that I think could be like potentially historically bad, like just overall historically bad. I'm interested at least early in the season before Kyler comes back. I'm interested here. I don't think there's any chance Kyler's playing week one. I think that was actually more likely chance.

He doesn't play the entire season. Honestly, then he comes back week one. We're definitely, I think we're missing at least eight weeks. weeks ir to start the season um clark what are your thoughts on i guess kyler and this uh this washington uh arizona matchup yeah i don't even know who's playing quarterback i mean colt mccoy i think is listed as the backup but i'm not even sure he's gonna play like this this feels like it's a one-way one-way action i'm not betting it too much uncertainty for me, especially this early. But I really don't see the upside case for the Cardinals this year.

Also, I want to address Young and Fearless commented about the Eagles losing both coordinators. I think that that's less of a concern for two reasons. One, their offensive coordinator was promoted from within. So I think there's going to be some continuity there. And then on defense, they honestly upgraded at defensive coordinator. Like Jonathan Gannon was not the reason that defense was good. So, so yeah,

I'm not overly concerned, but it does increase the variance. Yeah. Yeah. Good point there too. All right. We are back to me for the last one. And then I think I'm going to be against Clark again,

because I'm going to have to make some pro Deshaun Watson comments here. And he's on record of, I think a couple of weeks ago, Deshaun Watson was never good or some sort of iteration of that, but I'll let you defend yourself in a minute here. I think I haven't bet it, but it's a lean. I think the Browns money line at home against the Bengals is interesting. Plus one 15 on Caesars as minus two and a half to the Bengals here. So I like the dog and rather take the plus money for them to win.

And I like Cincinnati. I think that they're going to continue to be contenders. I think that dog. I'd rather take the plus money for them to win. And I like Cincinnati. I think that they're going to continue to be contenders. I think that they're going to have a really nice season. We're pretty bullish on the Browns. I think they had a really nice offseason. Again, Deshaun Watson, not someone that you want to like cave up for. He was a mess last season. You know, a couple of really bad weather games were mixed in there as well.

Again, not an excuse, but he just kind of looked out of sorts. I think we see a bounce back. I don't know if that means bounce back to prime deshaun watson but he's still young this is not a an old quarterback 2017 to 2020 he was third in the league in composite epa per play and completion percentage over expectation he was fifth in success rate fifth in air yards per attempt so he's not like nickel and diming uh again best offensive line in in the league. Really good running game, obviously, with Nick Chubb. I think Elijah Moore was a nice addition to them, just to add a little bit more depth there. And defensively, I think they're going to be really good.

This is one of the worst front sevens in the league last year. Jim Swartz is in to defensive coordinate here. Again, it's just Miles Garrett, who had no help. Zedaria Smith is now there. Dalvin Tomlinson up front. This is a really good defensive line all of a sudden. And I think their quarterback, cornerback trio, Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson, I think it's one of the best three in the league. And that's a really good matchup spot for Cincinnati, who we know is a high pass rate over expectation team. Cincinnati also

last couple of years, maybe a little slow to start. So I just think it's a really good matchup at home in Cleveland, getting plus money where I think Cleveland is, you know, a borderline playoff team here. So Clark, I'll kick it to you with any thoughts on this one. Yeah, I kind of like it. This is a game that I don't really see an angle on right now at the current line because I'm sort of, you know, bearish on the Bengals this season. I think they are a little bit overrated, but

like you said, I'm not super keen on backing Deshaun Watson, especially right now before we've seen any evidence that he can still play at a high level. I think there's a lot of optimism that he can return to form. When I think that his original form wasn't even as good as advertised to begin with, I think he relied on a lot of really big plays, out of structure. He was never really good at making quick decisions and capitalizing against defenses that were taking away the big plays. And that's what the Bengals do well, is they, you know, they did it to Patrick Mahomes. They take away the big plays.

They force you to be methodical underneath. And without seeing that from Deshaun Watson ever in his career, frankly, I'm not willing to bet on it for week one. But it's, it's, it's a game where I'm, I'm not betting on the Bengals because I just,

I just think that the Browns are closer to the Bengals than people think. And getting points at home is, is a, you know, as a tasty proposition. So. Connor, any thoughts?

Yeah. I want to be bullish on the Browns I'm just not sure this is the right spot if that makes sense like because we'll get plus two and a half you get a plus three at home I'm interested two and a half probably rather just take the money line I think but yeah I mean I I'm excited about this team the roster is good I am bullish on on Watson I you know as we talked about in the MVP episode that was a pretty bad take about him winning. But, uh, you know, I think in, uh, in hindsight, it's just like, you know, I want to, I want to find ways to bet on this team, uh, that I don't feel horrible about and like have 0% chance of winning. So like, I think this is an interesting spot. I think that we'll have just

better spots in the future because I don't think that like maybe a winning it's the Bengals kind of like, you know, boost them up a little bit, but I don't think that everyone's going to be entirely sold, you know, right after week one. So I think there'll be other spots here where there's just so many ways that this team can win right now. It's the running game, the defense stepping up and being like dominant.

If Deshaun Watson does find his, find his form in terms of, you know, what I, what we seem to think was pretty good. Sharp doesn't seem to think so, but I think given his current weapons and by far the best offensive line he's ever had, not, not close.

Maybe it's okay if he doesn't make quick decisions, it can kind of play out of structure because, you know, occasionally that can be all right. As long as he's got a little bit more time. I mean, he's accurate completion percentage, completion percentage over expectation, success rate, all those things over a, you know, three, four year sample are towards the top of the league top five in the league so um there could be something

to clark's point that maybe he sees more on film than what the numbers are going to tell you uh but again like statistically speaking he's been a pretty good quarterback and i think he has some solid weapons there to add to it too and again part of it is i know that from like season to season i don't think we see a lot of stickiness in terms of defensive metrics, but like massive talent upgrade. And I think sometimes some fresh blood on the coordinator side too adds to some help. Again, just being able to unleash and support Miles Garrett with other guys that

deserve your attention is going to make a big impact for maybe one of the best defensive players in the league too. So, all right, now we're going to shift to look at headlines. These are again available out there in most spots. Again, i think we all kind of did this for the most part um you don't want to get too far down the line in terms of look aheads because you know a lot can change between now we're getting like 84 days from week one you know we start to get into like you know the middle or late end of the season picking a bad number we have no idea what the dynamic of the team looks like at that point um you know there's just a lot of unknown there too. So Clark, I'll kick it to

you with your preferred lean right now and look at market. Yeah, as I said, I'm not playing any games, but what I'm looking for in a look ahead market like this is variance has to be your friend, right? That has to be more likely to help you than to hurt you. It's kind of an anti-fragile concept. In week seven, the Chargers play in Kansas City, and Kansas City is laying five and a half points right now. The Chargers play the Chiefs tight every time. They've got one of the best quarterbacks in the league. They can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs. Getting five and a half points is just a massive amount of points because of how many of those games end up close and coming down to the final score. On top of that, when you're playing a dog, your variance is more likely to help you than to hurt you, right? Like if something happens to the Chiefs materially, the Chargers are favored in

that game. So now you've got a five and a half point dog as a favorite. Whereas if something happens to the Chargers, they're probably seven and a half point, eight point dogs. You're losing a few points of value, but it's nothing that's going to like absolutely blow your bet out of the water. So that's what I would be looking for. And that's the kind of process that I would use to, to go about finding a potential future bets at this point. Yeah.

Good advice, Connor. What are your thoughts on that one? Yeah, I like it again. I think there's two bets against my homes. You know, I think I got to just hold tight there too.

So again, you know, you got to respect it hold tight too so again you know you gotta respect it i do love the chargers though i i do love the chargers um so i i definitely am not going to say no to any you know chargers action again he's just a long line of history of those two teams playing really close coin flip battles that have come down to the final possession too so uh i like it connor what's your uh your lean and look at market yeah i have a couple and i think it goes along the same lines here of like trying to fade the cardinals early uh without kyler and again like there's a chance he doesn't play the whole season but i don't want to like there's a little bit more variance as you get into like you know week 10 week 11 you know

maybe he comes back around then um so the first one cowboys laying less than a touchdown at arizona it's like minus six and a half right now. I mean, I think the Cowboys are just better in basically every category and like every matchup possible. Like they're just significantly better than the Cardinals. I mean, they can run the ball 35 times and probably win by two scores here. So I would not be surprised to see this close at closer to 10, you know, by the time we get there.

And then another one that I really liked that I almost played, but I think it was a little bit further out of my range was the Ravens. Ravens are laying five and a half on the road against this Cardinals team as well. I think that I'm, yeah, I'm really excited about the Ravens. I think that they could absolutely throttle this team, you know, just on the ground alone. And if there's anything to the passing game at all, like, I mean, they will shred the Cardinals. And so like you look at those two factors and I think that we're all, I think we're all pretty excited about the Ravens this year. So yeah, I think those are the three that stuck out to me or two that stuck out to me here, but I don't mind playing a little bit on each of them. I'm not playing a full unit, but

you know, just a little sprinkle here and there, because I do think that Cowboys could easily close above seven Ravens could easily close above seven, especially if Kyler's not back. I like that quite a bit. Yeah. When week what is the ravens game i think it was week eight honestly so it was a little bit it was a little like it kind of got into that range it was like ah you could be back by then but i mean i don't know like based on anything it matters 100 percent health like i mean yeah interesting yeah yeah i mean overall anything i'm uh i think i'm maybe a little less bullish than you guys from early discussions around the ravens i think offensively they could Interesting. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, overall, I think I'm maybe a little less bullish than you guys from early discussions around the Ravens.

I think offensively they could be incredible. I have some concerns on the back half defensively, but again, like Harbaugh just figures it out. I mean, it's going to be a good football team. There'll be a playoff team. I'm not really super concerned. Next one for me, or I guess my preferred look ahead. Again, I didn't want to go too far, so I just went week two,

and I like Miami I just I want this is similar to what Connor said about the Browns I just want to kind of be in in different ways against Miami this season this would be a lean for me Miami is minus two uh in New England against the Patriots and I just have way too much speed for them um basically on both sides of the ball I think Miami is going to be excellent this season. I want to find different ways to get down on them. We talked about that in a few different shows so far this season. Again, this should be, I think, at least three. I get it.

It's in New England. Miami's really played well, even against really good Patriots teams in the last 20-plus years, even in New England, too. They've traveled well and played well. So being able to get that game in September versus having a Florida team having to go up to New England too. They've traveled well and played well. So being able to get that game in September versus having a Florida team having to go up to New England in like December would be more problematic.

Like they're not going to be able to use the weather essentially to slow them down. Again, just the track meet that New England's going to lose every time. So this being under three would be a lean for me. And again, just week two, I feel better about feeling that being a pretty good spot where I don't think much is going to get away from us in terms of

what happens in the season. Uh, Clark, any thoughts on that? Yeah, I think the dolphins are a team that, uh, I I'm more bullish on in current form than I am on, on season long futures because of to his health questions. Um, so as long as, as long as they're all held and not just to it, but like he's reliant on Waddle and Hill for his offense. So, so as long as they're all healthy, and not just Tua, but he's reliant on Waddle and Hill for his offense. So as long as those three pieces are all healthy, and Vic Fangio is coming in for the defense, I think that they're a team you can bet on. So I think early and healthy is the way to go for the Dolphins.

Connor, you're not shy taking stabs at the Patriots? I don't know how I missed this one. This is a fucking banger, man. I mean, this is a great bet. Under three, I love this. Fade the pats to the oblivion, especially early on, and I may bury it on the Dolphins. So, yeah, I absolutely love it.

Again, those are leans for us. Be smart with these. I think Clark gave some great advice at the top. Whether you just want to throw down a little bit of sprinkle, whether you just want to track it, track the line movement, track your positions, I think that it's a good way to get access to it. And again, there's just still a lot that can happen. We see every time three months leading up to the season,

we're going to have some injuries, unfortunately, probably some that are devastating to some clubs, and that could really shape the outlook of that team going into the season. Two is a great example. It's one player, but man, the dynamic of that team going into the season you know two is a great example it's you know one player but man the dynamic of everything Miami changes drastically with Mike White there instead of two up so you know be cautious there so all right gentlemen anything else for the people are we gonna talk about your golf betting advice oh yes let's let's get to this yeah um it's a good question uh folks don't know, as mentioned here in

the chat, someone, yeah, sorry. The time permits me to want to address my controversial US Open betting take. So gotten this, tweeted something last night. I've had some, I mean, smart people, sharp people that I respect their opinions in terms of betting and in terms of golf betting. I think there was a disconnect in how maybe the messages that I was their opinions in terms of betting and in terms of golf betting. I think there was a disconnect in how maybe the message that I was trying to get across because I understood their point. I don't feel like anyone really understood my point. So I made a suggestion. So golf outright betting is a unique beast. Golf outright betting on round one of Thursday is even more unique because golf betting, there goes in waves. Basically an

entire group goes out into the AM wave. They will finish their 18 holes before another group of guys goes out and starts golfing. It's very different. When a football game starts, say the Lions Chiefs game starts, that game starts for both teams, regardless of who wins the coin toss so um you know that is not really what happens here in golf um it was a question around probability so my point was if you like guys in the pm wave guys that are yet to tee off uh jordan spieth cam smith brooks kepka if you like them wait because it's now wednesday if you didn't bet them monday and try to get in some of the better numbers you should wait because if some of the guys that are at the top of the market scotty scheffler john rom zander shoffley who's gone out and got off to a really good start

goes out and posts a really nice number there's a very very good chance that the number on all those guys in the pm wave is a little bit longer two three sometimes we see five points in this market i understand that the probability of them winning is impacted by a really good golfer going out and golfing well but a golf this is if you're betting in terms of like if a golf outright market was based off of just pure equity of just a hundred percent of win probability that's not how a golf betting outright market is priced. There's a pretty significant hold. And there's also a perception. It's a market. It's dynamic. It's impacted by what's happening on the course. It's impacted by money. So the point that other

people were making in my comments was that it doesn't change the probability is impacted. So of course their number should be impacted negatively. And I understand that, but that's, again, we're not dealing with a hundred percent probability market. We're dealing with a market that involves hold and perception. So I've seen it. We've executed it. This happened last year in the PGA championship. Rory McIlroy was one of the favorites, top of the board, went out and shot 500 in the first round. And anyone who hadn't teed off yet moved drastically. Justin Thomas was a late bet for Ron, PGA Splits 101 and myself. Justin Thomas was 18 before the tournament started.

He was 27 before putting a peg in the ground. He won. So yeah, it happens. There are more times than not, that number is gonna move in our favor. And again, I understand the probability. I understand the probabilities. I understand the probabilities impacted, but that market is dynamic, especially in round one and outright

betting. It's not just off of a pure 100% probability of outcomes, if that makes sense. Yeah. I also think too, that you're looking at a game that's overplayed over the course of four days. So like, there's just a lot that can still happen. So I think that their mentions are technically like by the numbers. Correct. Correct. I agree. I was trying to agree with them, but also make my points.

Yeah. And I guess the legalistic of like, it's a hundred percent probability. The probability is impacted. Yes. It's a dynamic market. It's different. But it's also kind of similar to like live betting on. I think it is similar to live betting on teams in some senses.

Like it's a little bit different just because like they haven't played yet. Like there's four, I mean, there's 72 holes that still need to be played. So I think there's just like a longer time to kind of make up that ground. So yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think it's fine. I mean, again, like it's a high hold market. You're just, you're mostly playing it for fun. I mean, like you're probably grinding some EV, but like, I mean, you're, you're getting wrecked either way by the odds so like i don't know i mean i still think it's fine but i can see why people were like oh it's like you know you can't do that there's a lot a lot of like hardcore math

people which i understand yeah i don't i don't bet golf i don't know the golf markets but i parallel it to like betting live in nfl games where it's like you know if the odds change is because the actual the then the probability has changed. And so if you like a golfer before the tournament starts, you know, you can bet him and maybe you get a better price as well. Like you can load up, you know, add to it or whatever. But I understand the point about like if the live market is less efficient and the live market, if the different books during the live market

vary their prices more widely uh then i think that that can kind of play into it too where it's like different books are gonna react differently but but if if the live markets are efficient then to me it seems like you know you're you're making if you like the golfer you like the golfer you know regardless of time um and the price is going to reflect you know what the market thinks the true odds are and that's kind of how my brain works but But again, I don't, I don't bet golf. So it could be a massive overreaction too. I mean, like some certain markets probably react differently. I mean, it's like, if you're getting like five points at one book and then like two points in another, like there's probably a difference in probability that was actually impacted that

they're making a mistake somewhere. So, you know, then you are like in a good, better spot. So I think that like, that's shop. I don't know. I mean, I don't know the answer to that. I mean, maybe that's totally wrong, but like, I think are like in a good, better spot. So I think that like, that's shop. I don't know. I mean, I don't know the answer to that. I mean, maybe that's totally wrong, but like, I think that it would be something interesting to look at is like what the live probability actually is compared to like what they're giving.

So you just set up a, a live debate between noon and, and see Lars on Twitter. Yeah. So I think the responses made it seem like I don't understand probabilities and I, you know, that wasn't the point that I was trying to make. Again, it is more dynamic because, again, round one outright betting is a combination of both live betting and pre-tournament betting. Because for some people it's live.

And those guys that go out and golf, their number is dynamic. It will change. So is the guys that have not started yet. So like the event has started. So it impacts the the market but again like brooks still has 72 holes theoretically in front of him regardless of what uh john rom scotty shuffler go out and do today um if you liked him he's he's going to still get his opportunity to go out and perform if you handicapped him as being a viable option

it's true and the counter argument is that the you know say say you want to bet on on i don't know i don't know when the golfers are playing but someone in the afternoon let's say justin thomas i think um like his his his winning the tournament is not a singular result of his performance it's a result of his performance and every other golfer's performance so like so his like the market of him winning the tournament has started before he hits his first shot so i think that's kind of the counter argument in in the in the paralleling to like to the way two football teams kick off at the same time like there's it's not the same it's not the same impact but it's

uh in the same ballpark or whatever yeah Yeah, I agree with that. And again, that would be, theoretically, if books were aligning this off of a true probability of 100%, that would make a ton of sense. That's just not how the market is. And anyone who's betting golf should understand that that's a key difference here, that all I'm trying to highlight is that difference. It might not be a widespread market inefficiency, but to Connor's point, it just takes one book to go out in the hang and move it a little bit different. And if it's something that I liked, I think it's going to move a little bit. I'd rather get it for two points more, especially

at the top of the board in golf outright betting where it's expensive. The way I'm betting is to win X amount of money. So if it allows me to make my stake a little bit smaller with nothing happening to that golfer in terms of his personal play your point's correct um in terms of how it impacts everyone else but um discussion aside who we who we're rooting for in the in the what is it u.s open u.s open uh yeah scotty scheffler uh victor hovland uh and max homer kind of my my three guys towards that i got uh 30 or shorter at the top of the board. So it's going to be a fantastic golf event to watch. Connor made fun of me around being a golf architect nerd,

but this course is going to be a pretty exciting watch in terms of the options that the guys have off the tee. And you're going to have to have the entire bag here to win. So good stuff at LA Country Club. And time to sign off so we can go watch. So yeah, I'd like everyone to bet on the US Open. Yeah, appreciate the discussion. And again, it was back and forth.

I appreciate some people understanding my points. And again, maybe I'll own that. Maybe I didn't do a good job of trying to relate the point that I was making. You know, five tweet thread. I was just trying to get people to read my article that I made for free and get some clicks. So I want to get people out there. And again, we've executed that strategy successfully. So not for everyone, but hey, good luck for everyone.

Travis Matthews, always Travis Matthew. I get Travis Matthew on the show every week. Good stuff as always. So I appreciate you guys hanging out with us for Connor and Clark. I'm Ryan, we'll see you all next time. Thanks everyone.