Move The Line - AFC Post-Draft Overview

Episode Date: May 25, 2020

In the latest episode of Move The Line, Ryan and Connor break down each AFC division and discuss how the market has moved since the divisional odds were initially posted pre-draft. They unpack the relevant Rookie of the Year odds, and offer a quick overview of how they think each team handled their draft and off-season roster moves. They also discussed the various projected win totals for each team and the markets available as the summer approaches.Topics Discussed:AFC East (3:29)AFC North (13:44)AFC South (19:40)AFC West (26:48)AFC Champs (33:20)Subscribe to 4for4Hosts: Ryan Noonan, Connor AllenFollow UsTwitter - https://www.twitter.com/4for4footballFacebook - https://www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube - https://www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, presented by 4for4.com, I'm Ryan Noonan, and joining me as always is fellow 4for4.com writer, Connor Allen. What's going on, brother? Not too much, man. Just, you know, staying alive out here in this crazy time, speculating on some football bets. And, I mean, there's not a whole lot else going on, I would say. How about you? Did you get anything down on that golf match today?

Didn't get anything on the golf match. It will be hopefully the weather recording this as it's about to start. Hopefully the weather cooperates so we can have some good live sports entertainment. They did something similar last weekend, and it just wasn't captivating. I would think that anything having live sports back in play would be good. But I'm hoping format today will be interesting, just exciting to see anything that resembles sports. It does feel encouraging. I feel like we're getting closer to maybe NBA stuff coming back and baseball looks like it's moving forward.

You're not into Korean baseball? I'm not into Korean baseball. I'm not staying up until 3 a.m. to grind lineups and starting lineups for korean baseball leagues i feel like the people who are playing that are either just like super sharp guys who like really think that they have an edge or just like the biggest degenerates who like legitimately need action on anything and that's like just the casual guys aren't really playing just because they don't care enough to stay up like you said or even or even just to grind whatever edge that maybe you could find. Still, it's – I don't know.

It's either one or the other in my opinion. Yeah, I feel like there's always an edge in fringe sports for sure because there's less public knowledge. But I think the Venn diagram of grinders and degenerates, I think it's pretty – it overlaps pretty massively. Yeah, 100 100 for sure but man i'm optimistic as we record i think maybe even more so here as we knock out the afc than i was a couple weeks ago and we were doing the the nfc i feel like we're looking good for football it's encouraging um i want to try to keep that mindsets and act like things are going to be happening moving forward i really don't think that I could handle the thought process

of some sort of truncated NFL season here. I don't care if there are fans there or not. I typically don't leave the same seats for all 16 or 17 weeks anyway, so I don't really care about going to a game. So I'm really excited. So hopefully you're optimistic as well, despite what we see in the country, which is good. We should be getting back together, some normal things out there.

But be safe, be smart so we don't have to shut down and steal sports from us in the fall. So let's minimize that second wave. But let's talk AFC stuff. Man, the AFC definitely feels a little less open than the nfc was when we talked a couple weeks ago definitely feels like top heavy with the ravens and chiefs again but let's go through it talk about some of the draft picks some roster moves that we should highlight and how the markets are shaping basically from a win total standpoint and then who to win the division stuff.

So we'll start with the AFC East, which is pretty wide open now that things look to be changing here in New England after a two-decade run of dominance. There's still the favorites, though, surprisingly. Their win total across the board is nine. Buffalo is nine in most spots you can catch an eight and a half massively juiced over at mgm if you have access to that book new england plus 125 to win the division here buffalo just behind them at plus 145 talk to me

about the uh the afc eastman yeah this division is so interesting because you know like you said no brady um but i'm not really convinced that they don't still sign cam newton i think that it's going to happen um closer to the season once they can get him in for a physical and as long as they uh rework uh you know thuny's contract a little bit to open up a little bit more cap room for cam but i think it's the perfect high upside move that for them i don't think that they're really too concerned about him going anywhere else because frankly he there's nowhere else that he could be a starter right now in the league that where a team could even show interest in him so like yeah of course i think that he could start over maybe a guy like gardner minshu but they

don't really seem to be showing much interest in uh cam newton I mean, for better or worse, is an interesting move. But for the Patriots, I do think he's a great fit there and would be obviously a lot different than Don Brady, but I think that they're open to kind of changing their system. But giving this time allows Stidham just a little bit of extra time to kind of see if he's ready. Like, if the coaches think he's ready, you know, like, maybe they won't get a close-up look at him, but I think that they'll get a pretty good idea once they start to have some kind of practices and they can decide, hey, we need to bring in Cam or maybe Stidham is our guy.

And I think that if Cam becomes a Patriot, in my mind, I think they're the heavy favorite to win the division. I think he provides them that kind of upside to really push them over the top here so i'm i'm already deep in cam futures you know to the patriots at like anywhere from plus 800 to plus 500 right now he's hanging out still as a favorite on draft gangs at plus 400 um so i'm not going to take any like patriots futures because for me i think a lot of that relies on getting cam newton so i'll probably just take the better price and cam going to the patriots rather than speculating on them to win the division. But I think Buffalo is also kind of a unique

team here because they traded away their first for Stephon Diggs. They still have Smokey Brown. The passing offense is going to entirely rely on Josh Allen. It's going to be if he takes another step forward, then we're going to see a Buffalo team that's a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If he stays the same or even gets a little bit worse i mean he was dead last in

deep ball accuracy and throws further than 20 yards uh i think this bill's team is just a lot of hype right now i mean he they were floating nine and a half win totals prior to the draft now it's all the way down to nine eight and a half some spots but i'm not really too sure are you are you on the bills here the paths what are you expecting from your from your squad well you know the the picture thing is interesting so like there was a lot of tom burry's completely washed last year right a lot of talk around that and then you know their talent around them offensively is just probably bottom three in the league and their defense is outstanding opportunistic for sure um you know not going to be super sticky to have that level of turnovers that level of turnovers for touchdowns but then they went out

and did like a classic new england draft as they flipped their first um grabbed a bunch of super versatile um chess pieces defensively that you know are athletes that can play wherever. I think the defense is going to be outstanding again. I think the discussions around tanking for one of what I think will probably end up being top three quarterbacks. There seems to be three quarterbacks in that next draft. I just don't think they're

going to be that bad, bad enough to really suck because the defense is really good. I think they like Stidham enough to be confident to roll with him i do i totally echo everything you said about cam cam would be you know next level i would feel that they would be prohibitive favorite i think right now again they're a little favorite but the buffalo thing like yeah i mean they didn't have many holes on their you know on their roster going into the draft steph diggs is very interesting

like you said i mean it kind of rests with josh allen i think steph diggs i forget where i saw this and that was a great call like his his calling card is how he's such a precise route runner but that's not necessarily something that's going to jive well with josh allen like you know it's not someone that you know obviously diggs is versatile can do whatever you know but his ability to pair with a super accurate quarterback, you know, that's really where Steph Diggs could have a massive edge. He's going to pair well with Smokey Brown. That obviously creates a different dynamic.

I think replacing Frank Gore with Zach Moss is really good. You know, they don't have a lot of edge rushing. They were able to address it late in the second round with A.J. Epinesa, who was really projected to be a first-rounder for most people. So I think Buffalo's improved, but to say that they're like head and shoulders above New England here is not something I'm comfortable with, despite the lack of holes in New England's talent on the offensive side. The defense is still just going to be good. you know stidham is he's got a strong arm and he can move you know can they get anything out of nikhil harry can they get anything out of most anew can

someone else step forward here you know is there any juice left in jules edelman you know they drafted two tight ends in the third round so um i don't think it's going to take a lot to win this division i do think nine could probably do it but uh you know new england does have the uh the more difficult schedule but kind of splitting hairs there yeah i think for those two teams i would say certainly at the top and then it's kind of like a pretty big tear break here to the next two teams miami and uh the jets like with miami i thought um anthony miko made a pretty good point on when Tua would start. He put this out on Twitter. Like their first six weeks are just, you know, really tough.

It's like Pats, Bills, okay, and then the Jags, which they probably should win, and then Seattle, San Fran, to add Denver. So like realistically I'm thinking that's probably a one in five start. And as long as Tua is healthy, I think that be a an opportune time to throw them in there um but if they're really looking um to optimize like i don't know i guess his confidence or their ability to win with him under center there's a five-week stretch from week nine to 13 where they play the cardinals the bangles and the jets twice with a bye week in between so like if you're looking to kind of boost your rookie quarterback's confidence even if they don't win you know like he should play well against those teams.

None of their defenses are really all that great, and none of their offenses are fantastic, at least yet. So I would say that those should all be competitive games and should be good confidence boosters. So personally, I would probably do that because they're not going to make a Super Bowl or playoff run, most likely, especially after that start. But I'm interested to see how they handle that. And then the Jets, I took a position on under seven wins. I thought that was just a bad number. Now it's down at six or six and a half win total. For me, I think it just belongs at six.

Like they're not that great of a team. They didn't address too many needs. And the schedule is absolutely brutal. It's the second hardest strength of schedule according to sharp win total projections. So So yeah, I mean, I just think they have a long road ahead of them and this division isn't easy and their schedule isn't easy as a whole either. So for them to win eight games was kind of a stretch for me. Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, you have to be really excited if you're a Dolphins fan about how they're starting to build that roster. I mean, they leveraged all that draft capital,

having four picks in the top 39. They came away with two starting offensive linemen in the top 39, getting your quarterback of the future in there as well. They did a nice job. They had four fifth-round picks. They flipped one of them to San Fran for Matt Breda as well. That's a guy that has a ton of talent that now maybe has an opportunity there, obviously along with Jordan Howard,

but that was a really good way to leverage draft capital too. So, and again, they have, they have the Texans first and second next year as well. We'll get to the Texans later, but like Miami is definitely building something and there is a, there's opportunity to move up there after really having that on lockdown for for 20 plus years the jets man i'm with you like that's the only bad secondary really in the division like it's just if there's nothing there i think they got quincy

wilson over from indy but like that's not anything that you should be hanging your hat on um you know with byron jones coming over from d to Miami. They have Xavier Howard. Miami's building stuff. We know New England's secondary strong. Buffalo's secondary strong. The Jets are really, I'm with you, their offensive weapons are not great. Adding Brishad Perryman, getting Denzel Mims,

that improves things, but they're still bottom five in the league. And I'm with you. I think that six and a half i think i would feel more comfortable on the underside of that bat kind of echo those those uh statements any interest in the rookie of the year odds we get on tua you can get them plus 700 on dk plus 800 on fandle the problem here is that you know joe burrow is going to start 16 games so you're really exactly you you're really staring down the barrel. Yeah, I mean you're already just starting from behind here.

I mean the odds are nice, but he would have to go on an absolute tear to end the season, and Joe Burrow would have to just be average. I think that would be the only way he would win. And I think we said if he started in week nine and then just ripped the rest of the season, I mean maybe you can make a case for him then. But even then, I feel like that's just pushing it. And with his rehab up in the air, I'm speculating he'll be healthy by week nine, but I have no idea.

You know what I mean? He could still very well just shut him down the whole year because they know, like you said, they have more future picks and continue to build up their infrastructure, give him a full offseason. It's a very big possibility. So, yeah, I don't know. I think I'm kind of out on the rookie of the year odds for Turo. I mean, there's just too many offensive rookies, regardless of borough,

that are going to be contributing heavily here probably over the course of 16-game season. So you're really working from behind there. Let's move on to the AFC North. Baltimore here opened as a minus 175 favorites. They are basically minus 200 everywhere. Win total sitting anywhere between 11 and 11.5. And then Pittsburgh has made a move too.

They opened up plus 275 to plus 350, though their win number has jumped a little bit you're seeing some nines out there now after basically being eight and a half across the board definitely uh feels like a baltimore though the division on the whole is getting better what do you think about the afc north i actually think that this is the most underrated division in all of football i really i'm expecting more from pretty much all of these teams in some aspect or the other and i mean baltimore was win total is fair given how successful they were last year in their roster but i think pittsburgh takes a big step forward their defense was a top five unit last year and now big ben healthy like i'm a big big buyer in

that offense for fantasy and just in general going into the season because a healthy Big Ben or even semi-healthy Big Ben, he's been known to play through injuries. The tendons fell off his arm for him to shut it down. I think that's a top five to top ten offense. And so then I think that they're easily a nine-win team. And then the Browns, I've seen a sharp Twitter guy, Suma. I don't really know his actual name, but he really likes to overhear for the win total, eight and a half.

And I really get why. I mean, Stefanski's head coach, they should be able to run the ball successfully with Hunt and Chubb, put a lot of emphasis on play action offensively. And the defense should still be solid. Like, I really think that this is, again, another eight, nine eight nine win team and then we're still forgetting about the bangles like the bangles were obviously really bad last year but this offense now i mean joe burrow aj green joe mixon tyler boyd t higgins john ross with speed like this is a very very legitimate offensive

skill group so i mean i think i'm going to approach them probably with betting like totals and overs early in the season um because their defense still isn't very good so i'm not sure if that translates to wins but i mean i expect them to be a lot more competitive than most people are seeing most people are saying um and i've been talking about a little bit on twitter but the bangles are at home week one and they're three three-point underdogs to the Chargers. I mean, right now I think that they win outright or at least put up a good fight and cover. Spicy. Yeah, I know.

Given week one takes in May. And I know people are going to give me some flack for that, but I do think that this whole division is just a really, really interesting group of teams. Yeah, I'm here for it. I love the week one takes as early as possible. But that's what you're getting on this pod, though. Connor's looking ahead. We're always trying to find the edges we can find, so it's good.

I'm with you. The division was terrible last year. That Pittsburgh offense was historically bad. So bad. It was just terrible. And they still won eight games really on the back of a top three defense. So they didn't have much of a draft but again they you know lost their first round pick because that mid-season make a Fitzpatrick

trade but like they'll make that trade again 10 times out of 10 like he was a difference maker for them and really solidified things in the back half where they've had a lot of issues over the last 10 years or so um you know, Baltimore's schedule is really nice, especially down the stretch. I know that, like, the win total in betting double-digit win totals is not really, I think, plus EV over the long haul, but, like, their last stretch, they play Jacksonville home, the Giants at home, and at Cincinnati to end the season.

Oh, my gosh. So, like, if you need to get to 12, like, assuming they're at nine wins, you know, say they're at nine and four, like, it just, I feel like they can get there. So, you know, it's not anything I'd be rushing to get to, but it feels like a pretty good number there. I'm with you. The Pittsburgh thing feels like a pretty good number there. I'm with you.

The Pittsburgh thing feels like a good number, too. That defense will continue to be good. And if they can get 15-16 out of Ben, it's hard to not think that that is probably a 10-win football team. And a playoff team for sure. So jumping on an 8.5 or even taking the better odds to get a nine at that point. Like I feel like that's a, probably a pretty good bet. Like there's a lot of talent there still on offense. Like if James Conner could stay healthy, that'll be helpful. But if not, like I think Anthony McFarlane is talented.

We didn't see a lot of talent with Samuels and, you know, the guys that are left behind there, but I think that there's enough on the outside and that defense is going to be awesome. Pretty easy schedule for most of the AFC North as well. Cleveland, you know, I haven't dug into that number or really unpacked them a lot, but I get it. I mean, that schedule's easy.

There's a lot of talent there, and really can't go as bad as it did last year. I think having a new coach, you know, probably pretty bullish as well, like you on Stefanski, I think that's probably a pretty good thing. The Bengals, I'm with you. I think that's like an overplay in a DFS thing because that defense is still awful. They really didn't do much to address it in the draft or in free agency.

I think they'll be able to score. I think that whole division is on the rise, though I do think it is still baltimore's uh baltimore's place to go i mean they didn't do much in the draft either i mean i liked patrick queen jk dobbins i don't know that we'll see a ton of this year but uh they flipped the fourth rounder to jacksonville for calais campbell too and he's going to be an immediate impact on the defensive side so i think you get two playoff teams at least here with baltimore and pittsburgh and you know if you're right with now that we're going to seven playoff teams you could see cleveland being yeah push and getting in that

six seven spot for sure all right afc south tennessee opened up as a favorite at plus 160 and they are now still actually a little bit behind indy indy has moved from plus 250 as an opener they are now plus 140 on draft kings they are the favorite to win this division get me started afc south i i always struggle with these teams just in general and throughout the year just because like they're just so all over the place but houston i we talked about this a little bit before i think like that offense on paper really isn't bad it just depends on if they're healthy like fuller cooks uh david johnson if they're all healthy i mean they're it's like that's a good offense it doesn't matter if they lost hopkins i mean i know that obviously

he's a fantastic wide receiver but if you just kind of remove that from your mind just look at what they have now it's still a very legitimate team um but i mean david johnson ran like he had just like rocks in his shoes last year um he was like so so bad um and so obviously if that continues like he's just basically was a waste of a trade um and then but otherwise i think like seven and a half seemed a little light um for indy like they seem pretty much like pure projection with philip rivers coming in like there were times where he kind of looked like toast last year and i know the system's good i know the offensive line's good the receiving weapons are you know unproven but largely exciting um so i don't know i think that the nine win total for them seems a little bit rich but they have the

easiest strength of schedule in the entire league by a lot. And part of that comes with playing Jacksonville twice, which is just shaping up to be an absolute dumpster fire. Win total of like four and a half. And every report that we hear out of Jacksonville is just that this team has given up. Last year they literally just didn't care about games anymore, which is tough for us to have much confidence. Gardner Minshew is obviously an awesome character and an interesting guy,

but realistically he's just a very, you know, average quarterback. So, I don't know. I think that this division is tough. And then you have the Titans where, like, obviously they showed out and had just an incredible stretch there on the back of derrick henry but can you do that for an entire season like can ryan tan he'll be the most efficient quarterback in the nfl for an entire year um can derrick henry shoulder 25 to 30 carries a game like those are all very important questions like yeah i mean like i that i think those

questions if you can confidently answer any of those should shape your opinion on how this division will end up i'm with you though it's so you know there's a reason they're all kind of stuck together it's really hard to differentiate year over year like they all just kind of move no one's really like rock solid team like houston did have that feel for a little bit but they've just done a great job at eliminating all their assets for like back-to-back seasons i just don't understand i'm with you like there's some talent on paper but like david johnson is scary and brandon cooks is permanently concussed and will fuller is just waiting to strain some sort of muscle in his legs, in his core.

Kenny Stills feels like a guy that should be better more consistently than he is. There's some talent on paper there, but it just doesn't come together all the time. Defense is going in the wrong direction, too. That worries me moving forward with them. Again, they get to play Jacksonville twice. That's really nice, and that helps. The Indy thing, like, you know, people are, I think, overall bullish on the front office and really how they're building the team there.

Rivers really was bad last year, and, you know, their offensive line was terrible for the Chargers. Let's see if that helps him get better. I am bullish on their weapons though i mean the interesting thing like everyone in the fantasy industry particularly is all excited about jonathan taylor there's a lot of buzz about him pre-draft even too and he was a really dynamic player coming out of wisconsin the reality is is they had they moved their first pick right they traded their first rounder to san francisco for deorest Buckner. So their first pick was the 34th pick in the draft.

And they took Michael Pittman. They could have taken Taylor. And I know that they traded up to take Taylor, but I think that that speaks volumes of what they think about Michael Pittman and what we should be thinking about Michael Pittman too, because even though they like Taylor enough to make him probably the main competitor against Marlon Mack, They took Pittman first. They didn't want to risk maybe trying to trade up to get Pittman.

They locked him up. I think that kid's going to be a stud. I think that speaks volumes to his role in this offense. Again, with T.Y. Hilton, Paris Campbell is an incredible athlete. He could not stay on the field last year, but, like, that dude is dynamic with the ball in his hands. I think, like, a more talented Curtis Samuel, like, you can do multiple things with him, get the ball in his hands, and he's pretty special probably on turf too.

So I think the Colts are interesting. Tennessee, though, they're second in strength of schedule. They have a pretty easy schedule as well. A lot of advantageous game scripts, which I know, to your point, I think you did a good job at poking holes in what they did last year and how it's probably questionable to be sustainable. But if things break their way, they do have a system that works. They drafted offensive linemen in the first round. They got a real steal, I think, in Kristen Fulton in the second round

to help out in the secondary. So I think that they could be competitive. I get why the odds are pretty much right there with those two teams. I really can't differentiate, but I do think that they are significantly better than the other two. I think you may be a little bit more optimistic on Houston than I am, but Jacksonville is a mess, a mess.

Yeah. Just total, total disaster. Like favorites for Trevor Lawrence, I would say. But no, I think the best part is that Jacksonville would screw it up and pick like Fields, Justin Fields, or like what's that guy out of North Dakota State? What's his name? Trey Lance.

Yeah, exactly. They'll overthink it and just do that. Trevor Lawrence is the damn truth. He needs to go number one overall. And if he does not, it is a, it is a shame. I do really enjoy the Trey Lance highlight reels though. Not going to lie. It's just Matt Miller from Bleacher Report and all these other talking heads trying to

boost clicks during quarantine. It just means absolutely nothing. It's like, it's just a total joke, man. It's definitely Lawrence, but we'll unpack that for another show another time. It definitely feels like a team that should have been more proactive to go get Tua.

I felt like that was something they could have done. I don't know. Maybe they weren't really bullish on him as a prospect, or maybe they just have no clue what the hell they're doing. Those are... I would say that, yeah, that's just absolutely no idea. Yeah, it's going to be an interesting division. I think that, again,

having that added playoff team here, I think that there's a path to having two teams emerge, and I do think that Indy and Tennessee, knowing what we know today, assuming everyone stays healthy, I think are going to be pretty competitive all season long.

One division I don't think will be super competitive, though you can make a case that everyone's getting a little bit better here, is the AFC West. The Chiefs here opened at minus 400, still sitting there. Win totals basically 11.5 across the board. Let's talk about the AFC West and eventually your Broncos here. Yeah, I mean, I'll kick it off with them. I i think that i honestly kind of a lot like the bills here drew lock has very very few excuses to perform well this season and there's going to be i mean monumental amounts

of pressure if you have courtland sutton jerry judy noah fant melvin gordon in the backfield philip lindsey like all of those guys are significantly better pass-catching options than most other teams have. So I think that this is a great offense from the outlook. It just is going to depend on Drew Locke. Can he make the throws? Can he pick up the offense a little bit more? And I thought that he showed flashes last year.

There were some really good throws. He made some good plays that um impressed me i was never super bullish on drew lock as a prospect i can confirm um but no i was not i mean i did i was not excited about him but when you surround him with like guys like this like shit i mean anyone can be a good nfl quarter but not anyone you know good like normal lower tier guys that wouldn't normally be projected to be good NFL quarterbacks can definitely do it with these kinds of weapons. And like when they have this kind of help. So I think the big question is going to be probably their offensive line on the offensive side.

But, man, they really can't mess this up, I don't think. And if they do, then they're going to have to do a lot of soul searching at quarterback position. And I expect Elway to probably make some moves quickly. He's not a guy who really lingers around on quarterbacks unless he's sold that that that they're his guy so we'll see and then the chiefs obviously you know there's not really a whole lot to say on them they're gonna probably crank out 11 to 12 wins this year and win the division uh barring him a patrick mahomes injury the chargers i don't really have a too good of a feel for with tyrod at quarterback i don don't know when Justin Herbert plays either.

It's like I think he needs a little bit of time to learn, but I'm also just not really super bullish on. I don't love him, and I don't really love Tyrod. I think the team is interesting, but it's nothing to threaten the Chiefs, I would say. And then the Raiders are just that team that is going to win some games that they're supposed to lose and lose some games that they're supposed to win and vice versa. So it's just one of those squads that is going to be really all over the place.

I think Henry Ruggs is an interesting case to ascend to, like, be their number one wideout this season, kind of early on here with all the vacated targets and just kind of, like, how that shapes up. And they're also, I think, I would not be surprised if we see Marcus Mariota play some snaps this year for them at quarterback. If Carr doesn't start off hot, I don't really think Gruden likes Carr very much. You see him arguing all the time on the sidelines, and maybe that's just part of football, but I don't really think so, to be honest. It just seems like too many arguments where they're arguing about the play

or where Carr was supposed to go with the ball and things like that, like fundamental disagreements that maybe aren't really supposed to happen. So we'll see how Mariota fits in there, but I think that if they get a couple of games in here and Carr isn't playing super well, that Mariota will definitely be gone too shortly. That's a guy that I'm just totally whiffed on. I definitely thought Mariota was going to be a thing coming out. Definitely thought the Mattel floor year in Tennessee was going to be a thing

for Mariota. It just never clicked. He's never really looked comfortable in the pocket. Immensely talented. Just shorts and a t-shirt guy. He's the guy that you want on your flag football team. Yeah, the Raiders were interesting. They went full raiders

here full al davis old school basically we got the richest wide receiver class of all time and they just go out and grab the fastest dude yeah i mean henry ruggs does have a chance to be good in this uh in this offense you mentioned the vacated targets there's just a big opportunity to be a you know a guy that takes the lid off the top here for sure. Questionable draft. Damon Arnett was a guy that they took it in the first round and was basically getting mocked in the late second, early third in a lot of spots. Off-field issues. I think you said it perfectly.

They're going to beat teams that they shouldn't and lose to teams that they should beat. They're kind of a mess. Yeah, the Chargers have a ton of talent. And, you know, I know that there's some familiarity with Tyrod there, but it just feels like on paper they should be able to get some wins. That defense has got a lot of talent. That offense, like, there's just not a lot of holes. Like, if Tyrod can be capable, capable like I don't feel good about them

but can they get to eight wins like I feel like they can get to eight wins they have the fifth easiest schedule it really I think matters how they perform in the division too with those games against the Raiders and Denver you know can they take advantage of those and that could be really the deciding factor on on the Chargers number the thing Denver, too, that it wasn't part of their draft, they went out and used draft capital, too, to add to the defense. A.J. Boye, Jarrell Casey, they really improved their roster on both sides of the ball. Whether you think adding Melvin Gordon is a good play or not,

it's just more talent that adds to their offensive side of the ball. They're a better football team than they were last september and um yeah drew lock is gonna he's gonna have his work cut out for him he's gonna make a move there i don't really feel confident that there's a second playoff team here though what do you think about that yeah no i think i think the broncos are you know eight win team you know they'll they'll have some some good moments and some bad unless unless drew lock takes that next step forward, in which case they can maybe vault into that 9-10 range

if he really is just playing well. And the defense, like you said, is much improved and kind of jumps into that top-five conversation again. But yeah, I think they're all just kind of like that lower-tier group, like Denver, the Chargers, and the Raiders, where they're like, could be anywhere from seven to eight win teams. The win totals are all right on all of them. I don't think any of them have a chance of winning the division. But I'm also not really laying minus 400 on the Chiefs to win the division either.

And it's just a lot. A lot of money to tie up there. So, I mean, maybe if you can get it on on credit and you have some extra credit to burn then go for it but other than that just tying up too much money for too long i agree this thing is the right play but it's not the right uh the right way to allocate the funds for sure it does definitely seems like a two-horse race so let's talk about just the odds in general to win the afc we really really have, depending on the book, you're looking at the Chiefs anywhere from, you know, plus 280, plus 300, Baltimore right behind them, you know, plus three and change. Is there a third team that you feel confident about that can

knock one of these two off? Or is it pretty much lock city with these two? I think that it's provided a little bit of value on like some long shots here so like you know I talked about the Steelers a little bit so we're seeing them at 14 to 1 uh to win the AFC I don't mind that at all right so we there's their defense we said they were third in DVOA last year um and obviously performed much better since after they got Minka like they were just in a very elite unit and if we see the Steelers offense return offense return at all to some kind of normalcy and potentially maybe even play a little bit better with Deontay Johnson kind of hopefully shaping up a little bit and James Washington,

kind of both of those two guys taking the next step forward, Ben Roethlisberger returning to a good shape, I think that that's actually an exciting offense paired with the top three defense. I think 14-1 is a value there certainly so like that is a team that i think can vault into those top with those top two and at least compete you know i'm not saying that necessarily to be better than either of the other two but i think it would certainly be a conversation um but currently i'm i'm holding a raven super bowl ticket at eight to one bet it actually, like I was collecting my Super Bowl tickets from last year at Ameristar a couple months ago, and I bet on the Ravens to win it all.

And I just thought 8-1 was good value. Now they're mostly like 6.5, 7-1 to win the Super Bowl. And I think that will only go up as they continue to, like you said, probably have a 12-win season. And at that point like you know they're going to be probably three or four to one to win the super bowl so um just kind of figure out how to put some money on that early and since i had it so yeah i don't know yeah i'm looking at the steelers i'm pretty sure like early in the season before things went completely wonky one

of those two ravens losses last year pretty I'm pretty sure they lost in Pittsburgh. But yeah, that Steelers team can be, like I said, I think they probably win 10 games. I like they're over. And those division battles are always hard-fought. I think that they probably do have, if all things go really well, they probably have the best makeup to be competitive and get in the mix with the Chiefs and the Ravens. I do think that

they are head and shoulders above and the odds indicate that but looking at you know something where you can get them at 14 to 1 I think is is definitely interesting if you're looking at a long shot basically that same number is where the Colts Titans and Bills are you know Browns a little bit behind that but those three teams and that kind of makes sense it's kind of how we think it lays out now too and that's what shapes the market early on but you know hopefully people you know stay healthy as we start to get things up and running and if they do i think the steelers are going to be in the mix that pains me to say i am not a uh i am not a fan of the steelers we've as a patriots fan i've had lots of uh contested afc championship games and things like that over the last 20 years with the Steelers.

I am not a fan. This is pure analysis trying to be realistic here. It's a great defense in that offense. Like Juju, Panzei Johnson, you know, whether they get anything out of Chase Claypool or James Washington, I just think that they have weapons. We know that Ebron can be a factor in the red zone. You know, he's obviously not necessarily a top-ten pick like he can deliver on that,

but they have talent. And, yeah, the defense is going to be awesome again. Yeah. So now that we've gone through both, do you have a rookie of the year pick or any other, I guess, award picks? I think Joe Burrow just makes too much sense yeah it's plus 250 still um i know we were eating the chalk last year on kyler and he got all the way up to like i think he was like plus 200 most of the offseason then crept his way up like plus 150 or plus 130 something like that i just he has the easiest path and like we talked about his weapons like

you know i mean he's it's stocked and that defense was not good last year um and i don't really see too much reason for them to be better but i mean they allowed 21 or more points in all but three games last season and 26 or more in over half of their games and so you know if you see burrow playing from behind like he's just going to be chucking the ball and there's you know not much else he can do so i think that yeah plus 250 might be a little bit short honestly at this point just depending on how i guess tua and herbert um shape up or if you know i i'm not really too confident on jonathan taylor at eight to one i think that like he's getting way too much hype i don't know know. I've talked about this with Joe Pano,

and I know a lot of the high-stakes guys disagree, but Jonathan Taylor right now is going to the third round of fantasy drafts, and he's going to be splitting work to start the year with Marlon Mack, and I don't even know if he's going to start to start the year. Yeah, I get and understand that they used their second-round draft pick on him, and I'm sure they like him. He's a great prospect. There's no denying any of that but the reality is that marlon mack is still going to see a decent amount of work and like he's not going to taylor's not going to have to work back field

to himself so for him to really win rookie of the year it needs to be all him again they took michael pitman first like if it was taylor was the guy, they take Taylor there, and then there was so much depth at receiver, if you really wanted to go get Pittman or someone else or Higgins or Mims or whatever else happened there in the second round, then you make that move. But they had said, hey, we hadn't made that trade yet. We're going to leave the draft with one of the two of these guys.

They made Pittman the guy. I like that point. I think that Taylor is good, but I'm with you. I have done a bunch of best ball drafts. I have no Taylor so far. I don't like the player, but it's just there's always someone that's willing to take him before me. It's coach speak, but they're talking about Hines being involved.

Is that Woodhead, Eckler role? Marlon Mack was a guy that could catch passes coming into the league. They just haven't really utilized him that way. And he's performed when he's been able to stay on the field. Like, you know, I just, I don't see it. I don't really kind of all the rookie running backs are just kind of, they're all maybe more talented than their predecessor. But like, I don't know that any of

them are going to be able to just come in and emerge with this massive massive role like edwards hilaire is going to have damian williams he's not going to go away he is better but uh same thing with like a cam acres or jk dobbins or all these guys have something um so yeah i mean to the answer the question like i feel like it's burrow or if there's an injury to one of these other backs and someone can emerge or you know there's a ton of receivers but uh all of them have dicey situations like his rugs going to be the guy that really goes head and shoulders above you would need probably something to happen in dallas to really feel like a cd lamb has like a high enough target share to emerge and then i i feel like denver is gonna still want to run the ball a good amount i don't know that they're gonna be a high enough target share to emerge. And then I feel like Denver is going to still want to run the ball a good amount.

I don't know that they're going to be a high-passing volume offense, but Cortland Sutton is still there. They have a lot of stuff there too. It just feels like a burrow because he seems like he's going to be the guy that starts on day one to win in Herbert Arntz. It's the shortest. It's never fun. I'd much rather cash in a 14- 1 rookie of the year play on someone it just doesn't seem like it's advisable

yeah i think like you said i think that if we see a backup to any of the you know veteran guys on in front of like hilaire taylor dobbins swift acres like if there's an injury to any of those guys in the preseason or something that'll hold them out for an extended period of time like you should bet offensive rookie of the year for them at that point like speculatively and i think that that puts them in a good position to you know have a big enough workload to potentially overtake burrow if he doesn't turn out well enough but i mean right now i just don't think it's worth yeah i mean i would love to you know something happened to mark ingram and jk do Dobbins was going to have 15 touches.

That'd be great. But, like, I still think in that situation it'd be annoying that we would see, like, a bunch of Gus Edwards. We will. For sure, they will. It just, it'd be frustrating. So, yeah, I mean, Burrow is the definite play. Like, he's going to come in and he'll put up numbers.

Yeah. The D is terrible. And then any MVP betsvp any mvp bets in total here i don't know it's it's kind of a tough field we talked about it a little bit last time but i think we mostly focused on uh nfc guys i'm not sure i haven't looked much at uh nvp stuff what have you seen i grabbed a little bit of dac at i think i grabbed 16 to 1 or something like that at a local book it's mostly like 14 or 12 to 1 I still think there's some decent value there just because of all the weapons

he has and you know they're changing head coaches so they're probably not going to go with like that run heavy Jason Garrett approach that they had before like maybe they are it out a little bit so I know McCarthy got a lot of flack for his scheme as being too simplistic and you know other teams kind of learning the schemes that when we saw with him with Rogers, that was kind of like the biggest complaint. But, I mean, they were successful for so, so long. And, like, you know, I think that fatigue of them always doing that kind of made sense after they got worn down. But, yeah, I don't know.

I think Dak's in a great position here. And anything above, like, you know, 10 to 1, I'm interested in him as kind of like a middling ticket here. Other than that, some long shots. If you're going to go with a really long shot, I wouldn't mind a guy like, we've talked about a little bit, Ben Roethlisberger at 50-1. I mean, last year's Lamar Jackson at 100 to 1 was just pretty much a fluke but you know like I think mostly that middle range here of like 30 to 51 is a good range to take a few shots on some MVP candidates here but you need their teams to be winning and they need to play quarterback so

don't piss any money away on Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey like just don't even bother unless you think they have to realistically go for over 2,000 rushing yards and their team has to be – they have to carry their team to the playoffs. That's like the case for one of them to win. And like basically Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson would have to get injured essentially or have really down years. So it's not going to happen. So you just got to pick a quarterback on a winning team who should have a better than above average year or a good year so that that's kind of like the qualifications there and you can kind of narrow down the list a little bit for some of

the longer shots yeah i think you said it perfectly like if we i know what lamar did last year wasn't was gonna be hard to beat but like if mcafree can do what he did last year and really not even sniff it like it's a it's a QB award basically, like you said. Yeah, there's nothing that's super interesting. I really do think that – I think the DAC play makes sense. Roethlisberger, I get, to your point, he'd have to play – he'd have to play really good, and I'm not sure that that's left in the tank. I think he's good enough to be good and make them competitive in the playoffs but uh 50 to 1 at uh at draft kings is a is a decent number but

yeah i think dac is uh is a good play as far as where the odds are you know the fact that ross has barely ever even gets mvp votes is crazy to me i saw someone it was zero right he's a nut yeah and they just need to let russ cook you know that's the thing is they don't let him cook so like he's got to be like the biggest like i don't know anything like sheep pick here it's seven to one he's the third best odds like he's never even got an mvp vote and i don't know is there a reason for us to think that they're going to let him cook you know they're going to let him pass the ball they're going to go away from their run heavy approach i would say no like i don't know they haven't told they haven't suggested anything and i don't know why i coach it all of a sudden switch it up

like basically he just balls out when he's forced to throw and which is obviously good but you know he's not going to compile stats and he's not going to just really have one of those seasons where he takes off at least in in terms of statistics i know again it's just like burrow it's not sexy but like mahomes is plus he's four to one and i know it's not great like we're talking about an absolute incredible special difference maker on electric offense and even if he didn't have awesome weapons he would make them awesome because he's just insanely gifted and it's yeah four to one and the thing is he does have insanely awesome weapons who are very good like he has some of the best weapons in the league so it's uh it's again it's not the fun one to hold the ticket on all season when you would rather chase a you know replication of

lamar last year but it's moans man i feel like we're we're just at the beginning of whatever this run is going to be if this kid can stay healthy it's going to be it's going to be insane to watch for the next five years or at least so yeah oh yeah insane let's go to the super bowl yeah do this again we'll start to unpack division by division uh you know more in depth these you know markets will continue to get sharper we'll look at a little bit more of the players futures and looking at uh you know some the prop market as that starts to take that take shape over the summer so we're going to get into some details and you know hold each other's feet to the fire

a little bit more specifically but we are here in may who's going to super bowl yeah i say that i like the ravens as i've told you i like the ravens to win um on the other side i mean i'm not i'm just not really sure i've talked about speculatively like the eagles as a team to watch for um but that's you know obviously pure speculation like upside kind of play um i think the niners are just too chalky for me i'll i'll go with the the saints welcome yeah there you go yeah i know exactly i'm finally you know not hating on your saints that you love so much and that i called overrated that was mostly teddy bridgewater though don't you know it was a teddy bridgewater hate so yeah um i'm gonna have a hard time getting off the Saints too.

I think it's the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs are just going to be on a run here. Yeah, if they can stay healthy, they're going to be a lot of fun, a lot of fun to watch. Yeah, I'm looking forward to really digging in here. We can start to get when some of these markets start to emerge. I know you'll be – I'm sure you're already scraping some stuff as far as the prop market,

and we can start to get a feel for what those lines look like, and it's going to be fun. I think the props are going to continue to be where it's kind of the blend of someone who started betting and was betting first, and then you get that fantasy background, and you start to really merge the two. I think the prop market is going to continue to explode, and we'll see some variations of offerings

from the different books. And depending on where you live, you start to get different access to different markets and there's just a lot of fun things to do with props. So you're in good hands because Conor spends a lot of time digging into that. Yeah, so I already made like an inward sheet that we've been looking at with,

that compared four for fours projections to the prop season long crop market and kind of like and compared them and then I've looked at the difference between them percentage wise and total so I have some good ones that I'll be ready to talk about and I think we'll have some interesting ones to talk about for sure because there's you know a lot of pretty significant differences going forward so we'll get to those when we start diving into the divisions looking forward to it so that'll wrap us up for today uh don't forget to find the show on twitter at move the line nfl find connor there at connor allen nfl i'm there as well at ryan and we will be back again with you soon stay safe everyone