Move The Line - AFC Win Totals Deep Dive

Episode Date: July 17, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen go conference-wide with a deep dive into the 2026 AFC win-total market. They break down the teams priced too high or too low, discuss the biggest offseason changes shaping their projections, and identify the AFC win totals that stand out before training camp begins. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4bets Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4 Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circa millions. Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friend Connor Allen here for a little bit more discussion around the AFC win totals. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a whole lot. Digging into some AFC win totals today, some potential bets, high level looks at everything and some early ones sit out. I'm excited to dive in.

We touched base a little bit earlier episode touching on just kind of high level stuff before we get a little bit more nitty-gritty today and focus a little bit more specifically just on the aFC. Before we do, you want to tell people about what's going on over at Circa with the Circa millions and all the cool stuff they got going on here? Yeah, $30 million guaranteed this year for a contest or more. They have a survivor contest. You pick one team each week. You can't use them the rest of the season.

They have a circa millions contest with 10 million plus guaranteed, where you pick five against a spread each week. And there's like really cool payouts too. So there's like quarterly payouts. and, you know, different segments there. So even if you struggle for a couple weeks, you're not fully out of winning money. I think that's pretty cool. Just like payout structure instead of it all being super top-heavy. So definitely going to be hopping in there.

And you can do that by finding the link in the bio as well as, you know, and noon and I are going to be there for sign-up weekend in a month or so. It's like end of August. So feel free to come and hang out and fire some entries. We want you to do that. Check it out. It's a great time. Press some flesh with the people, which we love to do with that.

time you here. I'll press a ton of Flushing Vegas and August. But you know what I mean. Yeah. You know, come say hi. But if you missed any of the other episodes or if you want to hang out with us really for the rest of the season, especially for the rest of the preseason, move the line where you listen to podcast. You can also search for Move the Line on YouTube.

Subscribe to those channels. That way you don't miss an episode if you like to hang out with us on YouTube. We typically do a lot of like screen shares and stuff, especially in season. We have props. So you're going to be on the YouTube channel. That gets pushed out pretty quick. podcast will come out to your feeds a little bit later. But again, just start to move the line

wherever you like to consume this type of content and we will be there for you and be relentlessly in your feeds for the rest of the summer, which I love to see. So, hi, buddy. Let's get a little bit more nitty-gritty. We're starting the AFC East. Start there and kind of work our way down. You know, because that's where the Super Bowl representative

was coming from last year. We can start with the bills. They are your favorites to win the division. you know, in the marketplace, and it makes sense. Do you have some coaching changes, you know, all three, you know, Joe Brady back as the head coach, Pete Carmichael in as the offensive coordinator, though kind of Joe Brady's offense and the new change. There were Jim Leonard for a while there too.

You know, the favorites for a reason, 10 and a half, tough slate. Patriots kind of bounce around right around 9 and a half. The Jets, I think, are an interesting football team. We didn't dig in at all, but like they're around 5 and a half, and we kind of touched on the dolphins there. He has one of your favorite locks. I don't say locks, but definitely an early lean for sure at four and a half. But take us away, wherever you want to do here in the AFC East.

Yeah, I think you touched on some of the coaching changes there in Buffalo. I think DJ Moore is a great addition to that offense. Just like adding a potentially difference-making wide receiver there is key for Josh Allen. Patriots are we going to get a letdown? It felt like they ran pretty pure. They're a good team. They got a lot of, felt like favorable schedule moments. last year, you know, and we see that those kinds of teams.

If they're really a good team, they'll probably stick around in that, I don't know, nine to 11 win range. If they're not, I mean, maybe they fall to like eight or nine wins. You know, I think kind of down there, that wouldn't be all that surprising for me. It's not a team I'm looking to fade because I do think that they are a good team. And Drake May is a very good quarterback, uh, despite the Super Bowl there. And the Jets really interesting, five and a half wins. They were like my number one fade last year.

I mean, they have a lot, like a reasonable amount of talent. Like they, they have like, some good players, which is pretty wild. So, like, when you look at just, like, the difference between a team like the Jets and a team like the Dolphins, right? Like, the Jets have Garrett Wilson. And, you know, they signed, they drafted two skill players in Omar Cooper, drafted Kenyon Sadiq. They added some other players in defense. Like, are they a good team?

No. I mean, they're definitely still a bad team. But, like, they have some paths like, okay, they can win a couple of games here and there. You know, obviously, Breeze Hall, too. Like, we talked about that as being an out as well for teams. Like, all right, worst case. You know, they just suck and they run the ball, keep the game close. Maybe they win a couple of close games here and there and get lucky.

They have those outs, you know. It's not, again, not a big out, but, you know, they're, in my opinion, not the worst team in the league. And then you have the Dolphins, which my favorite bet so far, under four and a half wins. Again, just like one of those things of not good on either side of the ball, coaching is a mess, skill player is a mess. Malik Willis has never, you know, proven himself outside of, like, being gifted in a perfect structure. He was so good last year.

It was so weird how good he was, right? Like he was, you know, the Bears. Yeah. I mean, in that, what, second game, maybe, or the, the first game where he started, came in, just lit him up. I mean, I don't know.

I guess this is like just a great moment to fade him, in my opinion. I think this is, it's a lot of it's baked into the market. Like, they're not buying him being a transcending quarterback here. I don't know if we want to talk about fantasy at all, but he's like going like,

kind of like people are clicking him like crazy and like that's i don't know i think he's like just feels like downside to be honest it's actually probably a pretty decent comp because the you know the floor with the rushing is is pretty appealing um yeah i mean not a good quarterback not a good probably not a good quarterback and like i don't even know that we'll have the answer to that at the end of the season because the surrounding cast which is i think part of the huge part of your handicap is a supporting cast is just untenable it's just not a competitive competitive of roster whatsoever. The Jets, I think it's a better roster, better roster compared to the dolphins,

better roster than they had last year. Anytime you have three first round picks, you're going to feel like you made some roster improvements. They splashed a little bit defensively as well, signing some older guys, some veterans, but they probably needed that too. You know, coaching on a hot seat situation always makes me feel a little bit nervous in terms of backing a team like this because he can get pretty dicey pretty quickly. I'm with you on the Dolphins again

because I think it is the worst roster in the league and the division is tough. New England, you know, bias aside, it's undoubtedly a, it wasn't just a easy schedule, it was like a historically easy schedule. But I think they're actually a better roster this year in, you know, every single way.

I feel like the AJ Brown thing dragged for so long that like we started to talk about AJ Brown declining rapidly all of a sudden before we even got to New England. I'm obviously a little bit more optimistic than I think the public is on what AJ Brown could be this year when you kind of marry him with probably the best vertical passing quarterback or one of the best vertical passing quarterbacks in the league. AJ Brown also played a little bit more in the slot when he was with Rabel and Tennessee. I think you could see that because I think New England has guys that can play the perimeter

and they don't have like a, I mean, I don't think Pop Douglas has earned his way into. being like, I got to be the slot guy. I think he can definitely, you know, that could be, he could be your backup slot guy. So I think there's some opportunities for, for A.J. Brown to win that could maybe be, you know, props or fantasy related as well. But I'm torn because, you know,

they have some nice schedule pieces in terms of like rest. And then they have some difficult in terms of the schedule being ramped up a little bit. But, you know, I don't know. I think that New England's probably, probably priced at like nine and a half. You're going to shop around. There's some nine and a half to the over the juice. and then, you know, juice possibly to the under.

So Buffalo is a tough one for me, man. Like, it's a tough slate. And so much is Josh dependent. And I feel like he's so damn good, but like, I don't know, the roster still feels, blots me. I know the DJ more upgrade is nice, but I mean, it's just got to be so perfect.

And their schedule is really, really tough. By far, like, the hardest in terms of, I think there's some travel stuff in there, too. And then, like, the unique opponent stuff for them is, like, is absolutely brutal. Yeah. It's um so I updated the player model today again. It's a couple like waiting things here and there. I'm feeling pretty good. We're getting close to a good product.

I'm going to start, like, tweeting out and posting about. I have the Patriots of like half a point better against the spread, neutral against Buffalo. So, and both, like I have Patriots at 3.7 point favorites against like an average team and then Buffalo 3.1 against an average team. So I think that's about fair. I mean, the market likes Buffalo better, but I, you know, I don't think that that's that ridiculous to have the page.

Patriots like a little bit higher than Buffalo. Yeah. Tough little stretch I think is a couple like, yeah, they have three short week road games, which is the most in the NFL. For the guys over at FtN, like that's pretty significant. You know, at any time I think I'm just a little bit cautious

when you make like full sweep coaching changes. Like I think that can go one or two ways, right? Like, but they haven't basically since Josh has been there a lot of one fewer than 11 games. So like it's hard. hard to make a case for under 10 and a half with, you know, thinking you're going to get a full slate of of Josh Allen. So, probably the AFC North, very interesting division.

Baltimore, you know, there's a lot of positive regression possibilities there. It's a team that both you and I were on for the Super Bowl last year. It pretty much went as poorly as it could for a number of reasons. 11.5. I think is the largest, you know, I think them and the Rams is the largest total out there. And plus money, the market's still leaning under on that number, which makes sense. Again, shop that around a little bit. And you have Cincinnati who I think we could basically grab this section of podcasts for

the last like five years for Cincinnati. And it probably sounds the same. It will probably sound the same five minutes from now. We break down Cincinnati. A lot of it's tied to Joe Burroughs health. They're around nine and a half. There's some 10 and a half positive market sentiment there. Pittsburgh, new coaching staff there and new full coaching staff.

obviously new coaching staff in Baltimore as well. I don't know what to make of the McCarthy Rogers reunion. And then obviously new coaching staff and a lot of new faces in Cleveland. And they're around five and a half. So what are your thoughts kind of start here on the AFC North? It's interesting because Baltimore, I have closer to like 10 wins and like a good team, but not a great team. Now there's a lot of like, I don't know,

there's a lot of changes going on there as well, obviously and everything. So it's tough. And then, like, how do you factor in, you know, the addition of Trey Hendrickson? Like, obviously, I think he's, like, really good. But, you know, based on, from my understanding, the rest of the past Russian defensive line is not as good, not as good as, you know, what we'd expect out of a Ravens unit here. So I don't know. The Ravens are looking a little bit worse in the model. And I'm not jumping to fade them, but one of the highest totals on the board, they're favored in, like, all but three games this year, pretty much.

Um, not massively though. That's, that's the other part too when you're looking at there. They're only favored by more than touchdown in three games, but they're favored in like 15 or 14 games out of 17. So how do you balance that, right? Like is Lamar just going to win a lot of close games? There's a lot of teams that I'm like, okay, well, like I think a lot of these other teams can compete. I don't know, the Colts and the Saints are dogs against the Ravens,

but I don't know, they're kind of like some testy teams this year that I think could be kind of interesting on a week to week basis. So the, the, the Ravens. are tough bengals i think you get the nail on the head um right it's the same thing all the time yeah it's same thing every year um steelers i think are a fun kind of bylaw um okay i think that i think that the stealers bylaw um well first off i think that the mike mccarthy edition is big no arthur smith add michael pitman uh and like i think that that matters a lot for the passing offense like something that was missing was like just like the quick passes to like Like, I mean, they're throwing that's like Calvin Austin and like, he's bums.

You know what I mean? Like, he came out of like, yeah, Deke McHap just like couldn't really win in those areas. Like it seemed like the amount of times where he would like get jammed up the line, the ball would just like fly into the dirt. Rogers would be pissed. D.K. would be pissed. You just, you don't really want him in that role. You know, like it seems like you want, I think someone more like Michael Pittman.

And I think he would, he's like a great compliment there for Rogers. So just like move the chains better. And I think their defense has some good pieces in the secondary. I think that's, you know, Joey Porter Jr's good. And then obviously- Yeah, Jamal Dean, exactly. So then you're looking at that. And then the pass rush I have is pretty good.

So, you know, obviously with TJ Watts. So, like, yeah, I don't hate that. I don't know. So, yeah, it's probably good. I mean, we know it's kind of been Rogers thing. It's like, you know, being comfortable with you. We talk about it with him with, like, rookie receivers or like new pass catchers,

but you would think that, you know, having some familiarity in the offensive system, probably a system he likes quite a bit. That probably does help because there are a lot of, a lot of talent on the roster. I'd imagine that is a roster that pops pretty well for you, assuming that you can get the average quarterback. Yeah, so it does make sense.

I mean, I think there's a ton of defensive talent if they can stay healthy. They've continued year after year to invest early draft capital in the offensive line. If that starts to play itself out, that maybe looks a little bit better. So it's real quick on that too. So like I'm looking at it broken down by unit.

It has like above average to like very good for most units. And as quarterback at like the low one of the worst in the league basically based on like last year's quarterback. Because it just used like efficiency, PFF grades like all those other stuff combined, which makes sense. Rogers wasn't very good. But I think when you like it's, you know, the cat or the mouse, the skill position in coaching versus what he was. And I think all of them are like intrinsically. linked. So I think that could change very quickly. If you gave a league average quarterback, like you're saying, I have them right on the number with like literally bottom five

quarterback play in the league according to the model right now. So it would be a lot better if you get average quarterback play. Yeah. And what can we find out there? Seven and a half, eight and a half for the most part. Mostly eight and a half, right? Yeah, so you get plus money. Yeah, plus money on the over. So if you're a little bit optimistic, as a path to search, perhaps, on the Steelers. What are the grades say about the Bengals defense? Because they've been very busy this offseason and adding talent. And I think they did.

I think they added talent. I'm curious to see how the grades hold up there for, you know, obviously a historically bad defense last year. Yeah, it's interesting because we have them, I have them as like decent pass rush, but awful run defense and not good. coverage. So I don't know if that adds up, but it's checks out. Yeah. So like that's, I guess, better than what they were before. I still, I think in aggregate, they're like, they're not the

worst defense. They're like a bottom of 12 defense, but they're not like the worst defense in the league. So I don't know. Yeah. I mean, they were busy. Um, you look, you get rid of Trangrickson. You have the kind of the one guy, but they did like they've continued to, again, Miles Murphy, Merce Stewart and then again this year with Cassius Howell early day one day two draft capital at edge rusher they give Boy amoff a nice little free agent deal coming over from Seattle so now they actually kind of have like a collection of pass rushers because they've basically just been Trey Hendrickson

and that's it for the last couple years and Trey Hendrickson to be honest like he's like a you know sacks are important but he's not a real good run stopper so it's not like you know on early down He's not necessarily a liability, but I don't think he was necessarily helping a really bad run defense when he's in there. And then they kind of, you know, spent a bunch of resources in the interior too, right? The Dexter Lawrence trade, trading 10 overall for Dexter Lawrence, B.J. Hill, Jonathan Allen, Chris Jenkins, T.J. Slaten, like a bunch of guys that have played pretty good football for a couple years or, you know, early draft picks. So, I don't know, they, the coverage in the linebacker is really bad. They used two rookies last year. They're running it back with these two rookies who were.

were a disaster. So again, props. We're looking at like tight ends, tight ends or even running back, receiving, or like, you know, I don't want to say,

but there's, there's such a liability in coverage last year, Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight that I think it's probably still a problem. Now again, they had a ton of injuries in the secondary. They get a little bit healthier. They brought in Brian Cook from Kansas City,

so I think they're probably a little bit better. Kyle Dugger is basically Jordan Battle. It's like the same person. So maybe someone wins that camp job. They're both pretty susceptible in coverage. But I don't know. I remain bullish on the prospects of a 17 game season from Joe Burrow, because I think the defense is better.

It's still not good, though. It's funny. So I'm looking at those linebackers. I have Barrett Carter is 164 out of 166. And I have Demetrius Knight as 166 out of 166. Awful. That's not. Yeah, not great.

And then, yeah, I don't have anyone really. Brian Cook is a good safety, but the rest of the secondaries. pretty well below average or average it seems like based on the grades so yeah i don't know maybe i got to uh look more into the defensive line maybe there's some upgrades there but um yeah probably probably not going to be good but um not jordan bell will come up and pop you in the mouth but uh you know you get lost out there hanging around trying to comfort you so uh how about the browns we haven't touched on the browns at all i've pretty massive overhaul and obviously you trade kind of the face of the franchise in miles garrets and then obviously bring in a brand new coaching

staff. We have, I don't even know what to call the quarterback situation, a camp battle between, you know, probably two of the most sorry situations at quarterback with Deshaun Watson and Asherst Sanders that we could possibly imagine. But five and a half for the most part out there in the Browns, you know, again, another team that had a ton of draft capital, so they've added some talent. I just don't know what to make of the pieces as we kind of put it together and make them play football games. Yeah, it's a team I don't really know what to do with, to be honest, either. The model gives them a six point dogs against an average team, which is one of the worst in the league. But with their schedule, has them still winning around five and a half

games. So they're really not, and that's with like, I think league worst quarterback play or tied with. And then the defense has a couple of good pieces. Like still, it seems like that's basically the saving grace there. And I don't think their old line is as good as it used to be at this point now. I think they have five new starters. Yeah, like it's not grading out very well. Yeah. Five new starters is hard. Like, you know, like, I think one of the things you can probably track in

it's so hard is just, you know, continuity offense at the offensive line. Game to game week to week. It's just really hard to fake that. They obviously needed better talent at the offensive line, but like zero continuity behind a pretty dicey quarterback situation either year. I mean, it's tricky. Also, just like they're super volatile offensively. like Boston, Conception, Harold Fanon.

I think Harold Fanon could be a dude. The other guys could be one of those guys is good. I mean, that's interesting, but then do you get any real quarterback play? That's like three ifs. And, you know, all of those need to pan out for you to be like a competitive offense, in my opinion. Tough start to back-to-back road spots,

Jacksonville, Tampa Bay. You know, not great teams, but, you know, playoff slash borderline playoff teams when you're trying to figure out what you get going on. there, a quarterback and offensive line is kind of a tough draw too. So again, fourth easiest schedule, which makes an under five and a half tricky, but would definitely be my lean, especially considering the other three teams in the division too, right, having to play them twice. They could steal a little win here and there, but, you know, I would probably take,

probably lean under one and a half divisional wins, right? So that's a tricky piece for them. All right, AFC South. We touched on a few of these teams briefly in the pods early in the week, too, with, you know, Jacksonville, you're surprise, again, defending champs. Texans are a talented team. You get some good quarterback play.

I know you're bullish on the Colts. I like the Colts too. And then the Titans obviously have, you know, pretty massive turnover on the coaching staff there too. And really, that's the only negative side for them, too, if you want to believe in continuity. You have three other teams that have their entire coaching staffs coming back. And then you have the Titans that just did full-on sweep.

Robert Sala coming in. Brian Dable, maybe one of these guys that just isn't a head coach, but is a really good coordinator. We'll see second year, Cam Ward, what happens there. And then Gus Bradley, who just kind of gets kicked back around year after year. Always available.

Gus Bradley seems to not be able to retain the job, but he's available if you need someone. But any thoughts to expand on AFC South teams? Any other non-Coltz thing? Thoughts, I think, since you kind of did a lot of cold stuff the other day. Yeah, not a ton. Titans, I think, are just massive variants based on what we get from from Daible.

We get from the new look, you know, Titans receiving core. By the way, I kind of think Alicah I am an I manner, I am anore, might play like over Calvin Ridley. Like, I would be surprised Calvin Ridley is just like tossed aside, basically. I think Tate starts, one hell in the slot, and then we're going to get a camp battle slash rotation with Ridley. So I think that's kind of an interesting look. And then just overall, yeah, I'm interested to see what that offense looks like. And Jaguars, there's like two or three teams every year that I'm just like lost on that look incredible some weeks. I mean, the end of the season, they were just absolutely humming.

Yeah. So interested to see if they can keep that up. What does the skill position look like like with a wide receiver? Who plays where? Who plays what? I think they have some talented guys. And then they have a good run defense. according to the player model, some questions in past Russian coverage.

But we'll see. They're another team that's just like right on the number, not doing much with it. Yeah. And then you have some weird schedule stuff we touched on too with their back-to-back overseas games that they like to play, come back and, you know, just jump in the by. What do we get from Travis Hunter? It's really interesting.

What side of the ball is the Travis Hunter impact made? Is there a Travis Hunter impact made? You would think, I mean, it's a pretty dynamic college player on both sides of the the ball you think you can figure it out like you're kind of watering him down on both sides then they have to kind of look inward and figure out a way to you know pick a lane with this kid if that's what they need to do but interesting to see I feel like they don't know if they're playing cat and mouse like feel like they talk out of both sides of their mouth with like oh he's going to do this and we're to lean on this and it's like they do have a lot of bodies at receiver

I don't know they're they're a tricky team Tennessee I don't know six and that feels like a lot does it feel like a seven one football team if we think the Texans are probably a playoff team. The Colts could exceed expectations. The Jaguars both probably think are right around the number. I think eight to ten wins within that range for Jacksonville. Again, it makes a ton of sense. Feels like there's some under at six and a half in the Titans.

Yeah, I haven't had six wins. So don't disagree there. I think there is a little bit more volatility with them with so many changes, changing pieces. And maybe Cam Ward's really good. He didn't really show that he was very good last year, but he also didn't wasn't throwing to anyone. and didn't have much support.

So it's, you know, it's another situation where every year there's one or two teams that comes in and just like completely flips the script and is way better than we anticipate. That being said, just like on paper right now, I don't have many reasons to believe that they're going to be good. Yeah, I don't either necessarily.

And again, like telling me with Dayball, but maybe Salas that guy too, right? And they even found out, you had to say, you know, that Saul is just one of those coordinator guys and maybe just doesn't have it to be a head coach, but we're going to find out.

It's pretty tricky. I don't know. There's some interesting defensive pieces in Tennessee, but I would lean under the six and a half there. Remain bullish on Houston, like we said, a couple episodes ago. I think that that's a nice regular season team. I think that, you know, C.J. Stroud has to answer the bell a little bit more in the playoffs, to be fair. But I think that that defense is good enough week in and week out to help win them some games or keep them in it. And then if they get anything out of that offense, improve running game, if that offensive line can find some cohesion,

I think that Houston's a really strong team. All right, both Wests, the NFC and the AFC, kind of similar. Where you have, I don't say three powerhouses, but three really solid teams, another team that I think kind of hangs in the background a little bit. Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs, and then the Raiders are down there on around five and a half. What are your thoughts on the AFC West? This is a really, really tough one because I think everyone, like the Mahomes Chiefs, I don't know, bounce back, sorry word, but like, I guess bounce back is like kind of, it's like all factored in here.

And the chargers obviously are changing it up on offense a little bit. I'm, I would say I'm actually pretty bullish on Mike McDaniel. Exactly we just talked about being like just a much better coordinator probably than, than coach. Like I think that what he can do here with like actual players is going to be really interesting and exciting. Now, a lot of their offense throw, I sound like the health of their tackles. If their tackles are healthy, they were an awesome team. year and Herbert was great. When they weren't healthy, he was running for his life.

I don't think there was anything a coach could have done about that, to be honest. So it's an unfortunate reality of the NFL. So I think when they're healthy, they're a pretty interesting team here. Overall, I'm a little bit lower than their win total, to be honest, but a lot of it's like skill positions rate pretty grade pretty low. And I think that, I mean, just because like QJ was kind of bad for a while and I was played pretty well the last year. And, you know, LAD, same thing.

Then they got rid of Keenan, who was like one of their biggest contributors. So they don't really grade super well in the player model. That being said, I think that they're, you know, a fine team to back. What I'm most interested in this division, though, the Raiders, when do we see Fernando Mendoza? Like, what does that look like? There's not really a clear spot to put him in. Like if that was even a plan for them, you know, obviously Brady's somewhat involved

too and, you know, is fine with the whole sitting approach and going from there. but I don't know. I mean, what, week one against Miami, I think is the first time. I think that's one of the few times that their favorites. I'm a proponent of just throw them in there, to be honest. Kirk Cousins sucks. I mean, he is just for sure. He's hot garbage at this point. So if you're throwing him out there, he's not going to last past like, I don't know,

week seven or week seven anyways, and they play the Jets. I mean, that's another time to put it in. But then you have like San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Cleveland. And don't think you really want to throw him in for that four games. Tratchy either is like his first four of his first five games. So I would just throw him in the beginning and maybe he gets a couple wins and build some confidence. Yeah, I think just be open to the fact that maybe he's clearly the best guy in camp, which you sure is how hope he is.

And just go with him, right? Like I understand the benefits of it. And it's something that used to happen a lot and it doesn't happen at all anymore. You think of, you know, Tom Brady's a great example. I'm in Aaron Rogers. You know, Pat Mahomes. even, you know, sits for, you know, a full year. And it just, I understand from a team building standpoint,

why teams have gone away from that because you obviously, you know, start the clock on, you know, having to pay that second contract. You know, you miss having the benefit of that extra rookie season if they end up being a guy and you would expect the 101 to be the guy. But like, I don't know, what's the goal, right? Like, get out there. You also need to learn and have some wraps down. Surrounding cast is a little bit questionable.

I, you know, very pro linebacker here, but I think spending a bunch of money in free agency at linebacker is probably a questionable roster construction, um, situation. I don't know that that was a great investment of funds. Uh,

I don't know. I think that the outside zone scheme is probably really good for Ashton Genty. I think a lot of people is going to be like, yeah, he's terrible. Like that situation was also terrible for anybody. Um,

so I think he's probably, you know, just fine. And, uh, yeah, but five and a half wins. it's tough to your point.

Like I don't know where they come. We can't find a place to find where you can get Mendoza in. If you don't start them right away, well, that same point is that's really hard to find spots where the Raiders are going to get you six wins on the schedule. So, you know, that plus money feels,

again, like a nice little lean, you know, early in the season. So I don't hate that at all. What do we make of the chiefs do? Are we getting, like,

is it Mahomes right away? Like, that seemed like it was not going to be the case last year. And that seems like maybe. Like, I don't, I don't know what to make of it. I think it's really hard to bet anything Chiefs related in the futures market right now.

Again, obviously, if we get news the Mahomes is playing, that's going to be impacted and the market's going to chase a little bit. But it's also hard to think what happens if it's Justin Fields for a handful of games. That's tough. I think he's going to play. Based on the reports, I thought it was like he's going to be ramping up and maybe not 100% for the start of the season, but he's going to play.

Which in my mind means they're just going to like jam Kenneth Walker probably for like, couple of weeks and kind of like ramp them up slowly um i mean started the season before the buy they got denver indianapolis miami and the raiders like i guess if he's not ready they could start just some field and probably come away like two and two um i think that that would not be that crazy but based on the reports that i was seeing at least before it seemed like he was going to be ready and like kind of start working his way in um i mean he's he also plays injured like all the time Like it feels like he gets hurt. He's hobbling around, you know, like he gets smoked one play and then somehow

is still there. Like it's crazy. So I think you'll be out there. That's my opinion. It seems like the market's mostly agree with that too, at least right now. Yeah, it seems that way too. Interesting offseason defensively where they allowed the Rams to poach their starting cornerbacks.

But, you know, they went out and, you know, addressed in the first round of the draft with Mansour Delane, Kater Kua. but we missed the season for Miami last year. It's actually a fairly decent slot corner. I think he, you know, pencils in there nicely for them. They do have some, they drafted pretty well late in the draft at, you know, defensive back the last couple of years. So I think it was a spot where they could have, they lost in death.

I mean, I think the trade overall for McDuffie is a win for them net down the road in terms of the return. How it plays out for 2026 maybe is a little bit more dicey if, if Delane's a slow starter. But, you know, we can see. And again, benefit of a soft schedule relative to where they typically see based off of how they finished last year. So they're almost two to one to win the division, which I think is interesting too. You touched on the Chargers thing. I think you're totally right.

Situation that no one would have succeeded in last year. I do think that losing Jesse Minter was a thing. Like Jesse Minter was like, I think a real dude. Now he's coaching in Baltimore. Internal promotion, which I think is nice to see there, a little bit of continuity. but we touched on it a little bit like there's kind of like a push and pull here like I'm encouraged by healthy offensive line new OC creative play calling ascension of a quarterback then the schedule stuff is pretty tough so what do you make it like 10 and a half on the chargers yeah I have them under that

a good a good bit but it's tough I don't know if I want to bet I know yeah it's yeah I have a wonder by by a good margin here So, but yeah, there's a lot of different levers that I think could, could pan out for the charters or not. You know, that's the problem. Well, D'Aouet was so good for them down the stretch. It was a month, like, if he had three sacks against the Pats in that playoff game, he left for Washington.

That's a loss. Kaleo Max getting up there a little bit. They drafted team Mesidor to kind of step in there. So, you know, they really need those guys to emerge and be really good because otherwise pass rush can be a problem, especially if maybe you have a little bit less of a experienced coordinator to dial some stuff up. So there's possibly some regression there defensively that could happen. So yeah, they're a tough one.

Broncos, same situation. I think we're going to get Bonix to start the year. Should be fine. There's another team that like, I don't know, there's some push and pull there too. But overall, probably I would lean over on Denver at nine and a half. What do you think? Yeah, I'm at 10. That was one of the craziest things ever.

Broncos win, Fonix, just broken ankle. Just like, yep, that's it. You know, see you later. Sorry, no, no if hands or butts. He's out. That was a very wild situation. Sean Payton continues to just do whatever Sean Payton wants to do. You know, so not too much on the team, though.

Jade Wanderer was nice. You know, getting Waddell there. That one, right? For sure. And I think it makes Sutton just like a red zone target can just like be the big man. Then that's it. Waddle, I'm pretty confident in Payton's ability to get some good yak opportunities for Waddle and have him, yeah, like you said, be the number one wide receiver in this offense and catch a ton of

balls. So I think he's an exciting spot. We need to kind of flag the Jonathan Cooper off field situation. They need him a lot, like kind of an underrated defensive end. I think like he has the ability to get upfield and he's pretty solid against the run. Whereas like Nick Benito on the other side is basically just a pin your ears back and go get you kind guy and you know there's some off-the-field stuff that lingers and maybe there's a suspension or anything with cooper that would be a problem there a little bit i don't know i don't think there's a lot of great defensive end depth there um otherwise if he's full on i mean this is a team that's

really good in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that's probably why they're uh my i'm always going to be pretty bullish on them because they're probably going to be able to run the football offensive line's good and uh i like sean peyton will figure out and do some stuff so we'll lean over on Denver is probably one of my favorite divisional bets right now. Not a bet I'm running to make, but I lean that way if we can get some more encouraging news, especially on that front and maybe more Bo Nicks positive news here in the coming months. I think there's like some props on how many games Fernando will start Mendoza. I think there's also, I think some books offer alts too. There's some that offer as a full season line. If you can get some alts, that's pretty fun.

I don't like I was seeing some starting to pop up. I've seen his regular lines. You got to for those but you'd lead over on the ults right let's take like an earlier than later yeah yeah um so you can get those like it i mean it there's regular problem it's like 2,600 or something like if you get like 3,500 yards i think that would be pretty good pretty good play okay any other takeaways before we wrap the a fc not really honestly i think we we covered we ran through most of it here pretty quick 30 minutes we'll obviously dive into each other uh division more in depth yeah you try to do 25 minutes i just can't just yeah it's impossible I don't have it in my bag.

I guess we do our podcast all day long. It's hard to do 25 minutes. But yeah, I think we touched on every AFC team. Again, we're still in July. And we're going to have a lot more thoughts on all these teams at a team level, training camp starting soon,

more teams, all that stuff. So reminder, check out the show notes. You can get all the information with all the different cool things that Circa is doing. Move the line. We're going to listen to podcast.

Move the line on YouTube as well. We've changed up from the 4-4 live, which we've typically been in the past. searching for Move the Line where you could find our podcast. Subscribe there. If you didn't pass for 4 for 4 bets, you already subscribed.

You didn't even know it. You found this podcast. You're like, what the hell? Move the line. Yeah, we're going to be here all the time moving forward. So that wraps it up again.

You can listen to other episodes in the past. We'll be back for more very soon with the NFC podcast. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.