Move The Line - Best Case, Worst Case Scenarios for 2022 NFL Season & Best Bets to Place

Episode Date: May 26, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle go over the most important topics in the world of sports betting! On this week's episode, they go over the best case, worst-case scenarios for NFL teams and the best bets to place to take advantage of right now.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro6:15 Worst-Case Scenarios27:25 Best Case Scenarios47:09 OutroMove The Line is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users who sign up for an account using promo code 4FOR4 will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000) 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/FanDuelHosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel. Promo code 444. New users can take advantage of FanDuel's risk-free first bet to get up to $1,000 back. If you don't win, download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by my friends Connor Allen and John Daigle. Daigle, what's going on today, buddy? Everything going well off of a golf major, and now everything being sorted behind the scenes. And I believe even, not to pub at the beginning of the show but i'm gonna do it anyhow i believe by the time we are done recording this our underdog top 200 for download

even for a csv to plug into your rankings will be live at the site so lots of good things happening in the football world right now lots of good things happening all over the batsports uh ecosystem connor allen what's going on buddy uh not much man just getting acclimated to being uh you know full-time here and i i fired some mlb props today already cashed one i saw that i saw that we meant to give you how's it going are we i'm one to know i mean i'm one to know can't miss can't lose you know like straight up strikeout props are just not my thing you know i'm gonna put it in my bio pretty soon if I keep running this period. LinkedIn bio too? Yeah. I mean, running the social has been fun and interesting. I'm trying to figure out ways for us to, like you said, break into the LinkedIn market,

tell some different stories that are completely made up, but make sense to some people on LinkedIn and go viral. I mean, that's kind of the goal, right? I just assume with our jobs, we never needed LinkedIn. I think I asked myself at one point in life a decade ago, probably was, do I need LinkedIn? And then I looked down and I had sandals on and I was like, I don't think anyone who's ever worn sandals has ever made a LinkedIn. So never have one. I think that's interesting. I would just say that because I feel like uh a standard linkedin post has started to become pretty prevalent on twitter um with you know how to improve yourself in these 10 easy steps don't get me started those things now we should now take simple 140 character fantasy advice

and flip it on its head and take that to the linkedin streets see if you can make some headway there connor again like part of you taking over and let you know sal blazed a very incredible trail for you to kind of uh grab and take the reins on but then how can you kind of branch out and be a trailblazer and not to sal's fault no one really probably pushed him to go to linkedin streets but i think it's a you know on tap market tap market. It's also Instagram, you know, at four for four football, we have a thousand followers and I'm pretty sure none of them are alive. I posted something yesterday for the first time in four years,

according to our account. And it got one, like I've never posted anything on Instagram with less than a, with a thousand followers. It got one. Like, I mean, I don't know who are they? Like, I don't know know so I'm going through all that figuring out what that's like

and uh you know Peter Over's that was the last one to post on there so that you know it was a while ago our bosses are also trying to get me to tweet more and the moment I do I'm going to create a thread on why I don't want to read threads. So I think they're going to rethink that strategy about making me tweet more. They want you like just more organically or they want like... They want more push. They want more Daigle. We all want more Daigle

in our lives, you know? So I get it. I agree. Just know like Daigle gets a little weaker every time he's on Twitter. My soul gets taken away a little more and more every day. Oh, we're looking forward to that. I remind folks that this is available every week in your podcast feed,

wherever you listen, also available on YouTube. So check those out, subscribe, rate and review all those things. Help us quite a bit more than, you know, lots of people find us,

keep things free here. You can head over to four for44.com slash plans to scoop up a betting sub. It's going to secure access to everything on the sites, all the things that we talk about from a tool standpoint. Again, the prop finder that we just put out again is I think really the best in the business. There's really nothing out there similar to really go one-stop shop book, regardless of what you're looking for, any sport, you can literally look for golf. You can put in PGA, you can type Stewart sink and you'll get literally how can you bet on Stewart sink this week at colonial? Obviously we'll use it more for football, for props, all those

different things. It's really an incredible resource free on the site now in season, or even maybe a little before that we'll go behind the paywall. The player prop season long tool is going to be coming out very soon. If it has not come out today, that is starting to sync up with what the books have out there. And, you know, in comparison to what the projections have here on site as well, a massive,

massive resource and helps you again, make the best of your money. If you're looking to get down on those season-long props and all the things that we're going to talk about here over the next couple months we'll be here in the same spot on wednesday evenings moving forward until the season gets going again it's the summertime or we're getting into the summertime so we got to fill uh with lots of different things because we can until we get football uh we get to stretch this bad boy out so we're gonna talk about some different scenarios, a handful of teams.

We're each going to go and share a team that we think maybe what their ceiling looks like, give you what the best case scenario is for that squad. And then the other side, we want to give you the inverse and see what's the downside of a certain team look like if things don't go well. At this time of year, everyone's in the best shape of their life. Everyone's optimistic. Everyone nailed the draft crush free agency and we just know not everyone is better not everyone's improved uh kind of you know piggyback off of

last week's schedule stuff so uh dale any thoughts as we jump into this before we kick off the teams these are pretty much what i believe the most volatile teams correct um like yeah we yeah we're going to play devil's advocate along the way as well with our six most volatile teams love it Connor kick us off you're going to start us off with a uh a team that you think is the floor is really low and I think we kind of probably all agree yeah so I'm going to start off here with uh Chicago Bears I mean, I just think that the downside of them is truly having a top three pick in the draft next year.

They didn't do anything to help Justin Fields. I mean, I'm really concerned about how their offense moves the ball. They have a bottom three offensive line, according to past protection, Ben Baldwin, you know, kind of looked at that,

looked at current projected starters. I mean, their bottom three last year, they were not good either. Their wide receivers right now are projected to be Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, and then they drafted 25-year-old Velas Jones from Tennessee, who was burning 18-year-olds for the last year and a half of his career and did a decent job doing that, but really not good enough to be excited about it. Their coaching staff is led by Matt Eberflus, who's a defensive-minded head coach,

and then Luke Goetze now is their offensive coordinator, the former QB coach from the Broncos, or the Packers, sorry. And it kind of reminds me of the Broncos scenario where Adam Gase was the offensive coordinator for a guy like Peyton Manning, went to the Bears and was fine, but then took on multiple head coaches jobs and was, I mean, known as the biggest donkey maybe in the last decade.

So, you know, I don't really have much confidence in the offense at all. And then defensively, they traded away Khalil Mack. Robert Quinn potentially wants to trade. They're changing from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 scheme for the first time in seven years. I mean, their secondary is going to start Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker, two rookies who are not, I mean, they have decent draft capital. But again, you're kind of blending all this together here. And for me, I mean, I think the defense could potentially be bottom 10 if things don't match in the secondary.

I think the offense could easily be bottom five if, you know, what they're hoping for doesn't pan out. And just the lack of talent overall, like Justin Fields went through his read so slow last year and was really, really struggling in a lot of games. And he obviously showed plenty of upside, but for me, I think like, I think you can bet them they're all to under win total year. Um, and I think that you could also bet the division forecast of Packers, Vikings, Lions, bears at plus 400. If you're looking for a little bit of a longer shot. Um, now there is some upset. I'm sure you guys have some notes on that too, but I just think that right now it's, it's the

floor is like, I mean, maybe even like two wins. I genuinely don't think there's any upside to the bears team, the way they've built this roster. You mentioned poor brass pro, but from left to right, Tevin Jenkins, Cody white hair, Lucas, Patrick, Dakota Dozier, and Larry Borum, just nothing that stands out whatsoever. Not to mention that no matter what we think about Justin Fields, you can't develop and you can't improve in this situation they've built for him. So I genuinely don't think there's any upside. There is no other outcome outside of the Bears just being tremendously

bad. And I guess if Justin Fields were to develop, he has to do it all on his own. But then really, what is he teaching himself if he's just literally playing under duress for his entire sophomore season? So, no, completely out. I was interested to hear what Dago would say if there was going to be upside. Because I kind of agree. Like, I want to be able to see the path. And, you know, I know, Connor, you were rubbing elbows with locals. And, you know, they obviously can be optimistic at times, but I just don't see that even having any sort of unbiased opinion

and seeing any path to success. Like Daigle said, it would all be on just a tremendous second-year leap from Justin Fields, which I think is probably in a league average setting, probably within his range of outcomes, or probably even maybe towards the top of his range of outcomes just from a talent standpoint. but there's nothing around him again new coaching staff there's so much changing and again this is you just need talent in this league you need difference makers to be able to throw the ball to you need difference makers up front or to hand the ball off to you and

they just don't really have anything that would make you feel really positive you outlined some of the question marks on the defensive side they've had some teams that have maybe overperformed over the last handful decade plus even because it's been on the back of a strong defense it's not the case i don't think they just have a you're probably going to have a lackluster pass rush a lot of weakness or inexperience in the secondary just so many questions i just i don't see a path to what's the upside what's honestly like seven wins yeah just again like best case scenario where like field just has a couple of games where they're close to the end they come down to one possession uh you know maybe they could steal lions or vikings games but i just it's a

it's a rough rough squad yeah like and as I kind of started going through other teams, like every team has like a crutch, you know, like something that they can lean on and the bears have nothing. Like it has to be like, maybe it's good quarterback play. Maybe it's strong offensive line play. They can run the ball, like the lions, they can run the ball, you know, bare minimum, they can run the ball, you know, a good wide receiver. So maybe you get the ball quick and they can win with separation. No, you know, like maybe they, they have good, good coaching. They can scheme something up. up no like literally all of those are just they don't check any box offensively outside of maybe justin fields is really really good and that's like i think that's the only upside offensively but even in ding darn el mooney's best case scenario is a wide receiver

too right and like not necessarily an alpha lead dog so and he's being drafted in fantasy but and we have him high in our projections i believe paulson had him around wide receiver 2021 because of volume that's it oh yeah uh for as much as i love darnell mooney yes it's literally because there's no one else on that team to soak up targets byron pringle is a cute 18th round selection but we know we're only drafting him because there's literally no one else to compete for that spot there david moore's on this roster connor oh man i mean maybe he sees some time i don't he's your boy so i mean hey i wouldn't i wouldn't you know we're about five years removed from that window uh unfortunately just it was david moore season every week i

remember that yeah we're dialing back to like the original days of move the line uh unfortunately the uh was that pre-dk metcalf too? It was pre-DK Metcalf. And then when they drafted him, I mean, the dream was over. It was dead. David Moore overlapped. He was three wide sets with DK Metcalf. But when you played him...

Yeah, it was just the one that I was trying to tout him to get on the field and get some love. But yeah, probably not happening anymore. All right, Daniel, your turn. What do you got, buddy? My worst case scenario situation would be the commanders and for a lot of reasons we talked about last week but for the most part it's easy to say here's carson wentz on his third team in three years

and he just finished with the second lowest rate of on target throws and his entire career behind what will be the best offensive line he'll ever play behind while he's still in the league. You also think about what this offense has because everyone's touting Terry McLaurin, John Dotson, Antonio Gibson stuck in a committee. That's what Ron Rivera has recently said at OTAs. And what's funny about that also is that you're basically taking your most explosive player, at least in the backfield, and Gibson off the field for a rookie that everyone's drafting and Brian Robinson, who does have fantasy equity inside the 10-yard line, is a big goal line bruiser,

but in himself, genuinely is not a good player. And I can't believe everyone continues touting him. Just the fact that you literally have to look all the way back to 2007, really, to find a running back that average that did not average over five yards per carry at alabama uh and yet everyone's touting robinson is very confusing not to mention that we mentioned on last week's schedule episode and their quirks that no team last season played four opponents off of many buys and the commanders actually played four games with rest disadvantages on basically short turnarounds this year and so

not also losing Brandon Scherff having to plug in someone like Andrew Norwell who graded lower on pro football focus instead and now they're still continuing to hinge on basically two catalysts at left tackle and center in their offensive line so concerns for me all around and the fact you look around and then see the cowboys we mentioned how advantageous their schedule is last week also the personnel upgrades not so much the schedule situation they fell into but the personal nail upgrades for philly and the regime upgrades that the giants got right not to mention all the players they improved their personnel with in year one in the offseason uh washington to, is far and away the worst team in this division. So I am practically all out on this organization. Wow. Okay. Strong. What do you got, Connor?

Yeah. So, I mean, if you want to bet on it like that, we got a fourth place right now. You can bet on them to finish at plus 190, but MGM and then their win total right now is still on FanDuel, eight and a half wins. Uh, I mean, nine wins would be pretty rich for a lot of the reasons you outlined. I think if we want to play devil's advocate here and look at the upside, um, you know, like we kick coming into the last season,

we were high on their defense. We were high on, Oh, they were going to get better quarterback play. Uh, regardless of what we think about Carson Wentz, you know, I mean, I think he's pretty bad,

but he should at least provide quarterback play that I think is similar to what they got last year and potentially better. And that's kind of the story you have to tell yourself that they surrounded him with some kind of talent and John Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, and a one-two punch of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. And I guess hope that the offense can be like slightly above average and that the defense is stellar. I think that's like the upside, but I really think that to Daigle's point that the worst case scenario here is much more likely than the upside of like nine, ten wins.

But yeah, I think that win total under eight and a half, even at minus 170 is I think a great look. The Colts finished with the league's second most turnovers last year and had jonathan taylor and carson went still made sure they didn't make the playoffs like that's how poor of a situation this is so yeah not really high on the commanders yeah no i get it i do think that that is the bull case would be that the defense uh does have you know returns and is healthy and really we start to see some of that ceiling there. They obviously need someone in the receiving core to emerge as a kind of that wide receiver too, whether that's Dotson, whether they get some health out of Curtis Samuel, they get anything out of a Diami Brown or something like that.

Thomas is dealing with an injury. He's probably going to be good to go, it looks like, for week one. But we'll have to kind of monitor that. And a three-headed backfield which i think is you know messy for fantasy but again could help raise the bar the floor a little bit where if a jd mckissick turns into maybe a a better naheem hines or if something like that were to work out i guess that would probably be the best case scenario but i do think that you can make a case to dagle's point too like everyone else in the division maybe improve maybe dallas didn't improve uh but they're still

probably a solid football team whereas you maybe were a little bit more bullish on the giants and some of the additions they made better coaching staff we talked at length last week about the eagles and being you know interested in some of the things that they've done so yeah i get being down on on carson wentz a lot of these things are going to just be derived from the confidence in the quarterback. And ringing the bell against Carson Wentz is, is probably a pretty safe bet. And I know one that Dagle is, is very comfortable ringing.

So I mean, who can blame him? It was a, it was a mess last year for that football team to not make the playoffs. So I get it. Yeah. So look, we're originally fans. and not make the playoffs. So I get it. Yours. Yeah. So look, we're originally fans,

but at a certain point, fandom wears off a little bit. My fandom was worn off a little bit. You know, we joke about it, but I try not to put on fanboy hats in this scenario. This is just therapy, Connor, is all we're doing right now. What's going

on i don't know what his worst case scenario team so don't let raul hear this one but um oh my god i thought you were gonna do this best case scenario i didn't i didn't check that notes i you just mentioned the teams i thought you were gonna do best case it's hard to make a best case scenario for the patriots um i think that there are a lot of questions and I think that there are a lot of reasons the division they've gotten better. Look, for a while they've been able to get away with this, specifically on the defensive side, right? They don't assign positional coaches. And a lot of times it's been Belichick's defense. To do this on the offensive side is very questionable. And I think losing Josh McDaniels to the Raiders is

going to be a big loss. Josh McDaniels was terrific at his job and punted on taking head coaching positions for multiple years and that Patriots benefited from it. And then, you know, we're able to kind of do that last year with a rookie quarterback. And I think a lot of Matt Jones' success was because Josh McDaniels is really good at his job in handling quarterbacks. And now we're going to be looking at some sort of combination of either Matt Patricia or Joe Judge leading this offense. I mean, Patricia was on the Pat staff for a while, but as like a defensive coach, apparently back in 05, he was an assistant offensive line coach, but he's basically made his mark in this league on the defensive side.

Judge was basically the special teams coach in New England who was like an assistant wide receiver coach his last year before leaving to go to the Giants. And now one of these guys or Belichick himself, who hasn't been playing, you know, calling plays for a very long time, we're going to be in charge of second year Mac Jones, who is not surrounded with a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line has been a staple of their dominance for 20 plus years. It is worse than it's ever been heading into the season. They just don't have the depth. They probably have five solid starters.

If you think Colt Strange can walk in right away and be a league average or above guard he probably can but like part of their success has been depth seven guys interchangeable guys that can flex out from guard to tackle even which is rare in this league and they just don't have it um losses on the defensive side without really addressing it jc jack Jackson lost in free agency. They did nothing except sign Terrence Mitchell from the Texans, who was like outside of PFF's top 100. And then Malcolm Butler, who ceremoniously did not get on the field in the Super Bowl, retired last year, basically, wasn't even in the league for personal reasons. And we're going to roll him out to play key snaps here. They basically double tapped the cornerback in the draft.

You know, Marcus Jones is tiny. He's like 5'8". He's probably a slot at best. He's probably a special teamer. Jack Jones was a big time recruit coming into Arizona State. I really didn't live up to any of that. So like maybe they can coach him up, but like they're going to need some of these guys guys right away so there's just a lot of question marks

on the side and again the Bills are a beast in this division Miami I have questions on Miami but like there's no doubt that they're better they've added a lot of talent and Jets had a really good draft I have questions about Zach Wilson but again like the schedule is brutal too they play four straight primetime games late in the season, um, which is really, really rough. And there's like, it's at, what is it at Arizona? Um, no, we are looking at, uh, this is New England. And as we, as we mentioned last week, that primetime games are negative because you screw up your schedule for that week. or four on the road minnesota buffalo uh arizona and vegas i imagine like in two of those short week on the west coast like they probably stay out there

that's really rough late in the season too um so yeah i just there's not a lot to like here in the schedule they get i think only the packers have um less rest than the patriots so i think eight and a half win total, like they can probably get into that eight to nine, you know, eight, nine range. But I just don't, I think that that's probably their ceiling there. The conference is loaded.

I just don't think this is a playoff team. Are you going to pray to Robert Kraft and Belichick to forgive you for your sins tonight? Or, I mean, how does this work? Because this is the most negative that you've been about the Patriots since I've known you. I mean, rightfully so though. I mean, how does this work? Because this is the most negative that you've been about the Patriots since I've known you. I mean, rightfully so, though.

I mean, rightfully so. I think that it makes a lot of sense. Right now, we can actually bet them. If you think the Jets take a leap, I mean, you can bet the Patriots plus 500 to finish last. But I don't think that happens. So I think you're looking at

they got plus 150 to be third. I think that's a very reasonable outcome. You can bet on them to not make the playoffs. Minus 160 in a loaded AFC. I think that's a very reasonable outcome. You can bet on them to not make the playoffs minus 160 and a loaded AFC. I think that's actually a pretty good look. But Daigle, do you have a bull case on this team at all? I mean, I can come up with some slightly far-fetched ones, but nothing like super strong. The only case is that two years ago, they won seven games with the quarterback that threw eight touchdowns. And last ago they won seven games with a quarterback that threw eight touchdowns,

and last year they won ten games with a rookie quarterback. Coaching will always be there for the Patriots, but to see the Bills continually get stronger, and remember, like, the Bills already took over this division last year. That was them boot to throats with a 27-3 first-half lead, and then they took their foot off the gas on the road in the first round of the playoffs because they knew they could do whatever the hell they wanted with this team

because they just didn't have enough talent, didn't have enough explosiveness, or used to match the Bills, and just got worse over the offseason. So not really a bull case considering Miami's volatile. They could go either direction. I think they're going to be fun. I still don't know if that equates to being good, but they definitely have a ton more speed, not only in the NFL, but also significantly more than

the Patriots could ever match for. So that's my concern. You also got to think too, like how do the Patriots punch back with a team like the dolphins or bills? Like when the, when those teams open them up, I mean, they've had no answers, you know, like really like that's kind of been, because I mean, what are they going to do? Go five wide with like Devante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, uh like you know just whatever scrubs Jacoby Myers like I mean you can't do that with a guy like Mac Jones I mean he's not there yet I also am excited to see the playbook assuming the playbook gets open more for Mac Jones but in these OTAs articles it's already getting a little crazy here because everyone's mentioning

Mac Jones's mobility like remember Mac Jones although he's an athlete who can extend the play, he's not mobile. Like, he never ran for more than 36 yards in any season at Alabama. He's never going to be like a running quarterback and add that element. So it's like getting really overhyped and overblown right now about how much this offense truly can stretch itself. Yeah, I mean, play-action boot is very different than, you know, scrambling, extending the play or anything like that.

Yeah, I agree. Going to the Cam season and how bad he was, I think it is hard to envision Mac even regressing, looking like Cam did that year. That defense was really good. That offensive line was significantly better than it is this year, and those are really hard to make up for. Again, I have massive concerns about the secondary,

the depth in the secondary, and their one offensive line injury from playing a subpar starter. And that's just never been the position that Belichick's allowed them to go into in the season. They just haven't had that in the last handful of years. They've been really strong up front, despite it all. And the secondary defense as a whole, and particularly the secondary, have always been strong.

And judge and judge never called plays when he was there three years ago, he was a special teams assistant, which is why I'd really don't understand the promotion he got when he shouldn't even be on an NFL team with how he performed in New York. Like Adam, Adam Gase got kicked all the way back to his hometown high school team and he's not even head coach there he's an oc like that's where joe judge should be right now with his career yeah it's wild time so like um i'm not even comfortable saying that they're not still a

second best team in this division i just think the bills are so much better than everyone else um i think miami and new england are probably close and the jets are probably better um but like this conference is loaded right there this is not a two playoff team conference and the patriots are going to be lucky to be 500 or better than 500 now nine and eight is a i think absolute ceiling and that would take just some sort of unworthier performance from someone in the pass-catching core, which I don't see. And they have a lot of backs that they're comfortable handing the ball to. The offensive line's not as strong. Again, just don't see it for the pass this year.

We're already assuming as well at least three teams from the West and probably three teams given we have to wait on Sean Watson's pending situation, but three teams from the North as well. There really is only one seed for the Patriots to grab, and that's maybe. That's the issue here. Let's be positive, Connor. Yeah. Well, before we wrap that up,

Dolphins at home against the Patriots week one, two and a half point favorites right now. Why do they always put the Patriots and the Dolphins against one another in week one I don't know if it's in Cowboys and Giants always in week one it's just gonna be great to watch to like uncork like a 60-yard bomb on the second play to Tyree kill and he'll give a nice peace sign to Bill Belichick over on the sideline and it'll I mean that's the game the Patriots always

win though like they always got that one not in September miami kicks him in the teeth but we go to the other end we get miami uh on new year's day in new england which is always uh yeah two old frees yeah so all right you should flip those but uh yeah those are i don't like the new i don't like new england's chances in week one i'll say that okay um so my best case scenario team that is near and dear to my heart, the Denver Broncos, you know, they have obviously big news. They're traded for Russell Wilson. But now Russell Wilson gets to play with the best offensive line he's played with in his career. They're projected to have maybe not a great offensive line, but like fringe top 10 in a

lot of categories. They have a lot of like above average players, which is again, more than Russell Wilson has worked with in his entire career. They have a strong running like above average players, which is again, more than Russell Wilson has worked with in his entire career. They have a strong running back core with Javante Williams there. And their pass catchers, I think are one of the most underrated groups in the league with Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, and then like Uber athlete, Albert Okuwe Boonam. I think that's correct. And so, yeah, I mean, I think that like the upside here is that Russell Wilson comes in here.

They keep, you know, they're able to continue having an efficient running game. And the passing game is just like a top three efficient passing game in the league. And like that kind of just brings them up, ascends them. Obviously, the coaching staff is a little bit of a question mark here with Nathaniel Hackett as the head coach and former Packers tight end coach as the offensive coordinator. But, you know, I really think that Russ and Hackett here are going to just be completely guiding the team and be able to, you know, kind of elevate them. I, we, I mentioned this on one of the last episodes, we saw it happen with the Rams last year with Matthew Stafford. Like, you know, obviously I think that this is, I mean, arguably way more of an upgrade from Jared Goff

to Matthew Stafford. You know, whatever the Broncos have been rolling out to Russell Wilson, I mean, is literally bottom three to top five, in my opinion. So I think that they're in a great position there. The only question would be the defense. You know, the secondary has played pretty well, and obviously they still have Ronald Darby. They still have Justin Simmons as safety that Patrick Sertain. But then the pass rush there, you know, Bradley Chubb needs to take a step forward.

They did sign Randy Gregory, Gregory though from the Cowboys. But last year, I mean, just 15th in EPA, 20th in DVOA defensively. But again, they take that step forward into kind of like a 12-ish range, top 12 range. And the offense is like top three efficiency wise. I mean, I think that they are very much in play to win the AFC West. And even if they don't click at the beginning, like as long as they make the playoffs,

I think they're very much live to win the Super Bowl at any point as long as they start clicking towards the end of the season. So I think Broncos to win the AFC at plus 900 and the Super Bowl at plus 1700 are both live if they hit their upside scenario there. It was never about Cortland Sutton or Jerry Judy, which one is better for fantasy in particular here.

And that's what's happening right now. Everyone's putting their foot down and going Jerry Judy heavily over Cortland Sutton. When we know Cortland Sutton has only finished as a top 38 receiver in one game and nine starts with Drew Locke. It's always been about Drew Locke. I actually think Cortland Sutton is the better player, has the better profile, and is the better prospect over Jerry Judy. And so that's why personally in fantasy, I like Cortland Sutton overboard. But this is what the Jets are looking at right now. This exact situation with the Broncos

as they were last year and saying we have all the pieces in place. Literally everything is great. We just need a quarterback. And that's what the Broncos did. They went out and literally got a top five, top six option. So yes, the Broncos were ready to compete last year,

just had Drew Locke. Now they are certainly ready to compete and be Super Bowl contenders literally immediately. No questions asked. So yes, I agree. The sky is the limit here. Agreed. I mean, I was hoping,

I didn't think it would necessarily be Connor because I know that he is a low-key Broncos fan. Keeps his fandom under wraps a little bit. But yeah, I mean, I think this is a Super Bowl contender. I think that they are the best team in the division. They have the fewest question marks. And, you know, I think that the Chiefs are going to be in the mix. And obviously the Chargers have a ton of talent as well.

I just love all the things that the Broncos have done and really have still a young ascending team in a lot of areas too. And now you add someone like to Russell, who's obviously very motivated and comes to town ready to, to kind of take them over the top. So yeah, I have no reasons to think that the Superbowl is out of question. Again, it can feel like we can get multiple teams in that division to make the playoffs, but I think that they, at their number make a ton of sense to bet them to win that division and to

you know, 17 is a little short for me, but I get it, but we'll kind of approach that in the season. I just not, I'm not a big preseason Superbowl future better. Um, and remember, uh, Russell Wilson in zone last year was the first time since 2017 that he didn't finish top two among all quarterbacks in end zone target distribution. And now he has large athletes because he knows where to throw the ball. He's an intelligent play caller as well as great. So now he has large athletes that can also bring those in inside the red zone and was already the one only quarterback to throw at least 30 touchdown passes in four consecutive seasons.

It would have been fifth last year if he didn't hurt his finger mid year. So like he was already in a league of his own and now at full health, I just think it continues immediately. Yeah. I mean, I'm really excited to see how like him and Nathaniel Hackett and Massey kind of like what kind of offense they go with, because I have no idea,

but I think the good thing is that Nathaniel Hackett coming from the Packers has been dealing with such a big personality and Aaron Rogersgers that like Rodgers has been like, yeah, like we're not doing that. Like, I'm just going to change the play if you're going to call that. So like, I think that having some kind of like synergy and some kind of like, if Russ wants to do something, I'm sure Nathaniel Hackett's probably just be like, all right, let's just do it. You know, I'm not going to argue with that.

And if things aren't working, uh, you know, like I think that they're going to be able to change things up and be a little bit more fluid than where in years past where like Russell Wilson was constantly held back by like the Seahawks run heavy offense by not having an offensive line. So, you know, it's like the combo of two, like they couldn't really be super passive all the time because Russell would get killed. And now he has an offensive line to be able to do that and receiving court to be able to do that.

I think that, I mean, this is just like a really good spot. It might take them a few weeks to click though. I think that if mid season you can get like a 20 to one, 25 to one on the Broncos. I would definitely be, I'll definitely be firing there. It's a situation that isn't worth overthinking for sure. I think there is actually something to that Connor that it makes a lot of sense too, is you have these things kind of happening at the same time. And I think that makes a difference. It's not just this trade acquisition for a new quarterback. It actually coincides with a new coaching staff coming in. And that is, is I think just getting them on the same page to start versus this is

what our system is you're coming into to this uh versus kind of like we're going to do it and build it up together this is like we're building this thing anew together i think is going to help them probably bridge that gap sooner because you just kind of come in like you said all right what works for you what do you like how can we kind of frame this offense? What do you want to do? I think that that's going to kind of maybe smooth things over early in the season too. So yeah, hard to not be bullish on the Broncos. I love this day. I love that you basically are foot flopping.

It's basically the Carson Wentz show. We're down on the team that he went to and we are up on the team that he left. It's easy to say that's the only reason, because you're going from a significantly improved quarterback situation to Matt Ryan from Carson Wentz. But also, that move was so impactful that everyone forgets about Stephon Gilmore leading the secondary when they had no really confident options

last year in that position. Xavier Rhodes has been a player people can just walk over for a couple years by now. Yannick Ngakwe on the edge is very much forgotten about for a team that finished with the second lowest pressure rate of any team in the league last year. And then we finally take T.Y. Hilton's corpse out of the lineup and instead put all these athletic studs around Matt Ryan. Alec Pierce, their day two wideout, averaged a 17-yard depth of target

as a downfield threat in Cincinnati. He deadlifts, according to reports, 675 pounds in college, which is why he has a 41-inch vertical at 6'3", 211. Like, that is much more impactful than T.Y. Hilton at these stages of their careers. Not to mention Jelani Woods, who, as we mentioned in draft shows, at 6'7", 269, registered the highest athletic score

among tight ends in combine history. Also, to play alongside other big-bodied receiving threats like a Mo'Ally Cox and Colin Granson, just in case the Colts do want to run more jumbo personnel to allow more blocking routes for Jonathan Taylor, everything got better, including Matt Ryan playing behind the best offensive line of his entire career.

So the Colts are just an easy team to believe that they are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Titans regression, knowing that the Titans basically got away one with one and averaging the 15th most points per drive and 20th in yards per drive last year. Yeah, I love it. Yeah. Connor, what do you got here? Yeah. So, I mean, right now looking at the odds, 25 to one win the Super Bowl,

win total nine and a half right now, still minus 125 in the over at Caesars. I think that's very much in play. And then also to win the division is only minus 105 at FanDuel and plus 110 actually at Caesars right now. So I think that those are all good looks based on what you mentioned. It is hard to disagree. I guess, you know, like really the downside would be that, you know, Matt Ryan does not translate as well as we think he does. But I mean, again, I think that he does translate well. I think that as you mentioned on previous shows, like he just wasn't like he had nothing around him, you know, like the system wasn't there. And now he has so many pieces.

I think that he's in, he's in a good spot. So yeah, it's, it's tough to envision much downside. He had no Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, still learning to play the position. Russell Gage, like his yards per outrun didn't increase until the second half of the year. And for a while, that was mostly because he was just getting targets left behind by Calvin Ridley. And then Kyle Pitts, who I know the box score ended up good. But remember those first couple of months, he struggled playing tight end,

which is why they started splitting him out more out wide, which is what they should have done to begin with for his entire career. And so lots of things that went wrong for Matt Ryan. And even then, I even think about that Patriots game that I'm sure Noonan watched closely, where, again, the box score didn't show that well with multiple interceptions. But Matt Ryan played his ass off in that game

and literally just looked up, and he was only throwing to Olamide Zaccheaus and had nowhere else to turn to. So yeah, this is just genuinely like the best situation Matt Ryan's been in since his Super Bowl run. And he can regress or maybe not fit like we're talking about, but I think he's still going to be better than Carson Wentz was last year. And that team has improved on top of that. So like there are, it's very easy to kind of paint this picture here and see why, you know, the, the Colts make a ton of sense and very similar to the East.

We think is probably a one playoff team. Basically that's the division winner. We can make the case for improvements in Houston and Jacksonville. If you so please, they are not threatening to win this division. The Titans seem to kind of paint by numbers and get there every year to kind of be competitive. Houston and Jacksonville if you so please they are not threatening to win this division um the Titans seem to kind of paint by numbers and get there every year to kind of be competitive um while it always kind of leaves us scratching our head no more so than last year obviously

taking home you know the number one seed heading into the playoffs but again I think that that's going to start to catch up with them there's talent deficiencies across the board in that roster so yeah it makes a ton of sense to be bullish here on the colts um i'm gonna go a little contrarian here because i think you guys are gonna maybe push back we've talked about this a little bit i want to talk about the bangles and i know that there are reasons to be down on the bangles they way over performed in a number of areas last year they were you know fraudulent's not fair but they definitely luck boxed their way to the super bowl took advantage again as we just talked about a bad tennessee team um there were a lot of pieces and question marks about that that team that just make

them a big bright glowing uh regression piece this year and i just don't think that they are going to regress as much because i think at the same time they can take some steps forward. I think that they, um, we have an incredible talented quarterback on Joe Burrow, who is now a, another year removed from an ACL injury. Um, another year confidence, you know, with this, with this coaching staff, some continuity, they have a ton of talent to throw to again, third third year for Tee Higgins, second year for Jamar Chase. The pieces that matter here are young and gelling. They have gone out and made massive improvements to the areas that I think that a lot of us had concerns, and that is the offensive line and the secondary. The offensive line improvements are tremendous. Ted Karras

coming over to kind of anchor that at center. Alex Kappa is a, again, someone who's been in front of Tom Brady for a number of years, slides in a guard and Lyle Collins on the outside. If they can all stay healthy again, they now have a starting caliber offensive line. And again, when you kind of look at some of the sack numbers and pressure numbers,

there's some smarter people than I that have looked at, Hey, look at Burrow is kind of has that gunslinger thing. He was really took a lot of sacks and tried to extend plays. Oftentimes when they were in their own field position, very few of those, I believe only one sack happened on third down last year when they were in field goal range to knock them out. A lot of times it was him trying to extend plays to get Jamar Chase or T. Higgins open down the field. And again, part of that is just, I think, his mindset. But I'm encouraged to see another year in this ascending player. There are a lot of questions in this division.

This division is probably getting better. We know Baltimore suffered a plethora of injuries last year. They're going to be much improved. They're going to be healthier probably, and they've added some more talent. We know what can happen if Cleveland maybe gets away and doesn't have a massive suspension for Deshaun Watson. That should be probably a better football team. There are some questions.

They have a significantly harder schedule than they did last year, especially late in the season. No team last year played three road games in primetime. They play three this year, and they're all in the division, which is really rough. So there are some reasons, and they're all in the division, which is really rough. So there are some reasons why you can poke holes in the Bengals. I'm buying into the ascension of talent. I'm buying into Joe Burrow.

I'm buying into the Higgins and Chase pairing on the outside and the offensive line making improvements. I like Dax Hill quite a bit, and I liked also the Taylor Britt that they also add in the secondary. They have a really strong secondary group with with von bell and jesse bates and the corners are okay too so they've added talent there i'd have enough pass rush to get it done so i think that the the bangles are very much in the mix to go back to the super bowl probably a stretch but again i do think that they can have some areas of regression but then also move forward in a lot of other areas that are probably a little bit more sustainable that center around the quarterback.

Yeah. I mean, that's, it's it's tough to argue because, and it's actually something that I was thinking about literally today before you brought the sheet up was that, you know, while like we projected borough to take a step forward last year a little bit and their wind total was like six and a half and they ended up going to the super Bowl and you know they just ended up making things that normally matter to most other teams not matter like they didn't have an offensive line and somehow didn't matter they didn't have secondary and somehow didn't matter they were able to still overcome those obstacles and now you give them those things and you think about like what does Joe Burrow do with time and I mean that's pretty scary I think that that's like it's going to create a lot of fun games. And I think that's kind of the, the issue though, is that again, like you're going

to play against the Ravens who I think we all, they were actually, I was pretty close putting them as my team in, in the best case scenario here. And I think that the Browns Deshaun Watson are going to be very capable to beat literally any team in the league. And as you mentioned, the schedule is much harder. So I think that for me, it's probably a team that sure, if they make the playoffs, maybe I'll take a live number, but I don't know. I just think that like their division is too hard and I'm not sure. I'm not sold enough on, I guess, them continuing to take more steps forward without any steps backwards. It just seems like it's very rare for that to happen in like any quarterback's career for there to be like basically no setbacks outside of like a mediocre rookie year.

There were just too many things, as you mentioned that they had to overcome, they shouldn't have been there. And I look at that and say, well, that doesn't mean like they learn from those situations. It means it shouldn't have happened from the very beginning. Nine sacks against the Titans.

And it literally came down to a pinpoint, perfect 19 yard throw to Jamar chase along the sideline that I'm not sure he could do again if he tried even though as much as I love Joe Burrow and then think about also a three and one run in the postseason and one score games the one of course being the Super Bowl they lost where neither team deserved to win that game and so overall it's just a lot of things that point to this the Bengals being the the team that we should go right back to and like fade this year for simple regression. And fantasy is a little tougher because they are superstars, right? It's still Burrow, Chase, Mixon, and Higgins all at great prices.

But also there is a reason since T. Higgins is battling the shoulder injury that is sneaky. Like it's much worse than it sounds. Like it keeps on extending the timeline so much so that it now leaks into week one potentially. Not to mention that for best ball, we like to stack week 17 games to put ourselves in position in the best possible position for the information we know at this time in drafting. And the Bengals get the bills, like last year's number one defense

in week 17. So there's still to me just a lot of reasons why I don't want to be high on this team this year and then go right back to it. Assuming we still had this job in 2023. Yeah. Well, it makes sense. I mean,

so they do, obviously they won the division. So they got a first place schedule. It's significantly harder than the schedule that they had last year, though. The way that their division breaks out is they get the AFC East. As you mentioned, they play the bills and who we already kind of talked about the fcs is not a strong division right they

can very much win the other three games they also get the afc or the nfc south which again is basically a one-team division it's you're going to get the bucks they got to go to tampa late in the season that's a very tough game but again you get the falcons and the panthers those are home games in the middle of the season that are very soft landing spots um traveling to new orleans can present challenges at times but um you know i'm not super sold on that team being um a massive massive problem so that helps make things a little bit softer again the first place schedule in this instance means that they get that they have to go to Tennessee again, which again, that's a first place team last year that we all believe is going to regress. So there are some things that are hidden in that first place schedule that kind of aren't necessarily what they look like on the surface.

So I think we've talked about it collectively. I get all the questions, all of the reasons to regress. I just kind of want to continue to, to build into and buy into Joe Burrow and his weapons that are young and talented and ascending and feel good enough about the defensive side and the offensive line. They can continue to maybe replicate a 10 and 17 a season, right? And maybe that doesn't win the division this time. Maybe it does probably puts them in the mix though, to be that wildcard,

one of those wildcard teams in the AFC. And then as we've seen in the playoffs, anything can happen. Versus the natural instinct of being like, well, geez, they luck boxed to get even into the playoffs probably because of all the injuries that Baltimore had. They were going to regress. This is probably an 8-9 team, 9-8 team.

I think they probably are back in the playoffs. So it should be fun to watch. Would you take 20-1 right now or 22- one to win the Super Bowl or would you wait? Yeah, I just think it's still a little bit too short. It's too short. Yeah. I know we've talked about this and I, you know, I know they're different, but it shouldn't be different because we're just talking about probabilities.

Like, you know, when I think about, again, this is me letting golf betting slip in, in my mind, the 25 to one golf outright is like one of the favorites of the week. And I just like, I, you know, I'd much rather, I'm going to shoot down the board at forties and fifties and sixties and feel like there's some actual win equity there.

Uh, I'd want it way longer. And again, bet betting futures. It depends on like what else you're tying your money up into. Like, I mean, honestly,

in this market right now, it may actually be better to tie it up in future. It's stagnant. Like, that's great. I'd love stagn market right now, it may actually be better to tie it up in future. Yeah, let's get rid of it. It's stagnant. Like, that's great. I'd love stagnant right now. But, you know, there are a lot of people who are easily going to turn that $250 or whatever you put on it into something much, much more,

a better investment than tying it up in the futures market by that time. Yeah. Celtics' money line tonight. Well, we need that to happen because it's not looking good right now. A couple minutes in the game, a little spoiler alert. Come on, man. So, yeah, that's it. You guys got anything else for us?

As we said, I'm about to get off this pod right now and along with Sam Hoppin, push the launch of our underdog top 200 for tournaments too, which is better because that means I take Paulson's projections, I manually curate them and push to the top the players I believe we should be drafting and making sure we have stances on which players I believe we should be

overboard or underweight on right now. And it's something I'll probably continue to update through the off season. So it's through August and we were working on a little change logs for me as well to make sure everyone knows whenever I do my weekly sweeps on what changed and why. So that's coming up. And then officially, officially best ball tiers that I've been promoting for three weeks now, officially

Tuesday, when we get back from the holidays, they run. So everything's taking place at once now. The underdog suite of tools alone is worth um subscription it's really incredible all the stuff that we have so it's it's awesome uh great work on that daigle uh let's wrap us up so connor you got something for us i mean before we leave daigle it is five to two it is five to two celtics right now with eight minutes left in the first quarter i thought it was like last game where it was like 18 to one, like Celtics, like over the heat,

like in the first, like two minutes. That means I have one point of leeway I'm working with right now, Connor. I need to get back to this game. Oh man. All right. So we'll be back next week to do it as always for Dagle and Connor.

I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time.