Move The Line - Best NFL Futures to Bet RIGHT Now!

Episode Date: August 24, 2022

Connor Allen & Ryan Noonan share their favorite NFL futures bets still on the board you can bet right now at various sportsbooks.Timestamps:0:00 Intro0:38 Welcome & FanDuel Ad5:05 Best Futures Bets36:26 OutroMove The Line is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users who sign up for an account using promo code 4FOR4 will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000) 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/FanDuel Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGM Get a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3c9Fdcx Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4bets Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigle Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4 Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea Offseason NFL Betting Tracker 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3sWVsi9

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel. Promo code 444. You can get new users a risk-free bet up to $1,000. Just have to download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. Enter our promo code 444. You can get new users a risk-free bet up to $1,000. Just have to download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. Enter our promo code 444. Take advantage. I'm Ryan Noonan. Joined here, as always, by my friends, Conor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. We're going to draft today at Kettle Strings with, you know, we probably get to see Evan Silva there, hopefully. He's hosting the draft, so I'd expect he'd actually show up.

We got maybe Amir Gobber, you know, a few other people here. I think Eli Hershkovich, the college basketball, you know, legend and Steve Boyden should be there. So it should be a good time. I'm pretty excited. Yeah, if you happen to be listening live by chance, Wednesday evening we will be in the Chicago suburbs, Oak Park area, Kettle Strings, for shenanigans, fantasy football drafts,

hanging out with other like-minded degenerates in the fantasy football and betting space, and we would love to have you. If you haven't seen it, you can actually check out, go to Evan's Twitter account, Evan Silva. He's got the details there. Probably a little hard for you to get into a draft at this point but you can do what i'm going to do uh just kind of mingle and uh and hang out should be a good time hay is in the barn as far as our pre-season prep here

around the divisional previews we are now just a few weeks really what we are 15 days out connor from actual live football on our televisions actual actual games to bet on, actual props. I mean, I know that there are people in the preseason streets doing props and betting sides and totals. God bless you. No judgment here. Not necessarily a place that I think that I have an edge. So I kind of stay away from that. But we're heavy in the futures market. We're getting down on props and we wanted to kind of talk about some things that are out there in the futures market props aside that we think are still um out there for folks to jump in on we've got a lot of great stuff out there on the sites you can actually follow along with all the bets that we have on our bet tracker on site obviously the

best way to get and maximize the lines that we have a great instance of this today where um you know connor made a prop bet and moments later that bet was gone by the time if you're waiting for the bet tracker you're kind of sol you need to really be in the discord get that in the moment and that's the best way to do so um betting sub is basically our premium package at four before gets you literally everything on the site we will be doing the two shows in season as we did last year. We will be doing a Thursday game breakdown with John Daigle as we've been doing here in the preseason. Then we'll be doing something on the prop side as we did last season on Fridays. More news on that to come in the coming days and we are very excited to share that but we will be

doing a prop show on Friday afternoons. Again, following along live on that is the best way, Connor, for anyone to jump in and hopefully get those lines before they get steamed. Yeah, no, I'm excited. I think that this year, you know, kind of last year we were releasing them simultaneously. This year I plan on putting a link in our discord to the show and just releasing them live on air for those people to get a hold of them because those started moving pretty quick too. And if it's anything, how our draft props and how our off season props are going, I mean,

those things are moving quick. I mean, we're getting a little more steam. We've got a little more people in the discord. And so that's good. We're getting some more respect from the books. And I think it's, it's warranted by our record,

but you know, it's important to stay on top of it and get the best line. It's true. Yeah. So this is the best way to do so. Again, there are lots of other ways to get the betting sub for cheaper. If you don't have access to, um, bet MGM, perhaps, uh, you can click in the betting tab on four for four, go over to resources. There's a link that says free betting sub, um, lots of different ways to get the betting. Some of you are looking to get in.

You've been hearing all about best ball. You want to finally get over on underdog. There's a ways to get into underdog to maximize your discount at four for four. And you can upgrade your package to get the betting sub. We have a lot of tools that are going to be betting sub specific as well, which I think would be advantageous if you are a season long player. If you're a DFS player, those tools though are premium and we're really excited about them, but they are kind of packaged in the betting sub. So something we want to talk about today too, is you can go over and use our player prop finder and search for literally anything you want. You can actually

use it for multiple sports. You want to get down on Rory McIlroy this week at the tour championship. You can type in Rory McIlroy and find every market available for Rory. You could do that for any football team. You could do that for any player. If you want to find what's available for him in the prop market, highly suggest doing that. And with that, we are using today to talk about futures that we can get down on. So we're going to each share four, four for four, because we're loyal to the brand and that's what we do. And Connor, I will let you get started, buddy. Oh, you're letting me tee it off huh okay um so this is one that i actually have two long shots here that i really like uh the first one is nick sirianni coach of the year uh 20 to 1 on fan duel the best odds that i was able to find so kind of like going looking at this award specifically

this award is kind of about exceeding expectations and getting to a certain point. So coach has to exceed expectations and the team pretty much has to win 10 games in the past 20 years. Every coach to win this award has won 10 or more games outside of the Bruce Arians interim season, where he went like nine and three, but he only had half the season or whatever recorded the season. So you have to not only be good, but you have to win a lot of games. And we're looking at the Eagles specifically here from the roster standpoint. I think the Eagles have one of the best off seasons of any team. They have a top pass blocking offensive line.

They have, they added key pieces of their defense with Jordan Davis, N'Kobe Dean, they signed James Bradbury. Obviously the trade for AJ Brown is massive. Like really on paper, I think that they are the best team in the division. And so if we consider that and think that they win the division, they're probably winning 10 to 11 games. So that puts them squarely in the mix to our next year, squarely squarely in the mix to win this award.

I think because the expectation right now is that they're second in the division, you know, maybe third, can Jalen Hurts take the next step forward? That's like the whole media, you know, narrative. If they end up doing better than that, I think that Sirianni is in a great position to win this. And rather than just betting Eagles to win the division, I think that this is a great bet in tandem with that to kind of like capitalize on that upside.

I think it's a great look because like you said, I mean, I think there were questions still around Jalen Hurts, right? We can argue about that all day, but they did everything to support him on both sides of the ball this offseason. I think the defense is going to be markedly better. Hassan Redick is a massive upgrade. James Bradbury in the secondary is a tremendous upgrade. Nice draft, adding some defensive pieces there too with Jordan Davis,

N'Kobe Dean. And then obviously going ahead and making that trade. You have all these assets, and I know we've all been talking about how they're just kind of stockpiling them, that they could take a shot eventually at a quarterback in the draft. But like they used one this year to get A.J. Brown. Now A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, that's a nice tandem there. So whether you think that Nick Sirianni is a donkey or not, it doesn't matter. Connor's right.

Like coach of the year is about exceeding expectations, even though the expectations, I think, are higher coming in this year than they were last year still like if this team wins the division and they get you know maybe they get they tease that number one spot in the conference which they can do because we know the nfc is weaker as you said like it's a pretty good look it's a good number um that's still out there now at 20 you said yeah still at 20 right now at uh fanduel bet mgm but uh you know kevin O'Brien here from the chat asked, you know, not all of us have access to every book. How low would you bet this? I'd probably do 15 to one. I mean, you should certainly comfortably find that again, this is

still a really volatile award. But that's probably the lowest I would take this because, you know, obviously it's a, it's a large field market. So there's going to be other people competing and it's not like he's the clear cut guy, but you know, in the 15 to 20 to one range, I think that there's plenty of value. Um, I am going to go with a, uh, a bet that I like quite a bit. And I think the price is really nice. I'm gonna take the Vikings to make the playoffs, uh, minus one Oh five on Caesars. So it's out there, um, different prices, but again, kind of within the one Oh five 105 minus 110 range. I think that there are, again, a lot of reasons to be encouraged here. We talked about this a lot in the division previews. Again, Mike Zimmer gone, Kevin O'Connell coming in from the Rams. And I think to some degree,

we have to apply what we refer to as the transitive property of coaching. Basically, as far as like, hey, this is a scheme that this guy has been attached to for years. We should expect him to generate some similarities in his new team, right? So a lot of three receiver sets for the Rams, they had 87% of the time last year. The Vikings did so just 42% of the time. It's actually one of the lowest in the league. It actually led to a lot of predictability on offense and a lot of stuff boxes a lot of you know not a lot of operating room for Dalvin Cook to work the offensive line has questions I think that they've upgraded that a

little bit over the years especially at the tackle position I think it'd be a little bit better and now you get into a spot where you can utilize Justin Jefferson in a way similar to what the Rams did with Cooper Cup. And I think the ceiling for that is massive. We should be really excited about that. And I think a lot of folks are because I just think it's less predictable. So if you're going to see more three-receiver sets, you're going to find him moving around in the slot out wide to take advantage of matchups. I think the ceiling there is really exciting. We have Adam Thielen back and healthy. K. Osborne benefits for more three receiver sets. And then

it looks like Irv Smith is going to be okay as well dealing with that thumb injury in the off season. On the defensive side, Ed Donatel has been a part of some really nice defensive coordinator jobs in the past. He's been with the Broncos of late. They're going to shift back to a base 3-4. And then they added Zedaria Smith from the Packers. Daniel Hunter will be back. That's a really nice duo on the edge, and I think a lot of the elite teams in the league have that, especially this year. There's a lot of edge duos that are tough. The secondary has been an issue, but Louis Seane, Andrew Booth in the draft, I think, helped to kind of add some talent there. So again, I think that they're competitive with the Packers to win the division, but again, just at minus one Oh five to make the playoffs, knowing that the NFC is

definitely an easier path than the AFC. I like the Vikings quite a bit. So I like they're over eight and a half for wind total, but you're paying more juice on that. So I'm just going to take them to make the playoffs. I like that for sure. And so I think two things this off season have actually stuck out to me. There was a great podcast the other day with Charles Robinson and Josh Norris talking about kind of inside nuggets that Charles Robinson has picked up. And one of the biggest ones when he was talking with Sean McVay was that how much he's going to miss Kevin O'Connell, how much of an impact Kevin O'Connell had on the Rams offense. And that from his understanding that if, you know, Sean McVay were to retire or, you know,

that was kind of in the mix going to Amazon potentially, um, which like the likely the reins would have been handed over to Kevin O'Connell with the Rams. So like, that's kind of where he stands in the pecking order and like how much autonomy he had. So I think that's big. And then beyond that too, I had heard early in the off season, um, you know, from some people connected to the organization that they brought in Kevin O'Connell to, you know, change the entire offense to start, you know, quote, slinging it as much as they can. So, you know, those are two great things for fantasy and scoring. And, you know, I think they're positive for the team in general, because obviously Mike Zimmer was not the worst coach in the world, but, you know, I think that his scheme was just old and, you know, tired and with given

the weapons that they have, you know, they're in a great spot to capitalize on that going forward. So, you know, I I'm, I'm excited for the Vikings. I think it could be something early to look for in the prop market. I have, you know, Kirk cousins passing props market. I have all that, all that good to go. So that's a good bet there. Yeah. Especially when we were looking at we're doing some work too, on trying to find scheme advantages to Kirk cousins over the last five years of the league is tremendous against man coverage.

So when we're finding teams that play a lot of man, we want to be looking at that even more. For sure. That's a good look. All right, I'll go on to my next one here. I'm going to do the Denver Broncos to score more than 430 points. This is at DraftKings right now under team specials. It's a little bit hidden. You know, normally they have kind of like the whole, all the team points together on draft Kings this year, they kind of did a different, they hit it under team specials and then Denver

Broncos. I'm sure more books will release it, but I think that this is, is just a crazy low. So if we look at, uh, Russell Wilson's, you know, points per game per season, he essentially needs to average 25 points per game to hit the over on this. In seven out of his 10 years in career in Seattle, they scored more than 25 points per game. And you have to consider also too early in his career, they had a stellar defense. They really didn't need to rack up, you know, points.

And then he was kind of held back by a run heavy approach with Pete Carroll and establishing it for, I mean, what, you know, nine out of 10 seasons, you know, like it was career essentially. So now you're looking at in the Broncos where he's working with former Packers offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, who, you know, literally they are making the offenses together. They're relying on one another and Hackett has been open about it, that they're relying on Russ. So I expect a ton of play action, a ton of dropbacks here. And, you know, it might hurt the defense a little bit. I, it might hurt, you know, their, their win loss column a little bit,

if they're not controlling the game, but I think that they're smart enough to just put a ton of points on the board and really go for it. So, I mean, I personally would line this closer to like 445, 450 just because looking at, you know, the last two seasons I think it was 15 teams last year had more than this. I mean, the Broncos should comfortably be a top 15 scoring team. So, you know, I think that this is a pretty safe year. And so the over there, I think is a pretty solid look. Yeah, that's a good look. I like that nugget that they, that basically that number is kind of middle of the pack. And I think that that's then itself, you should think, especially too, like we think that there, it could be another

thing where we have this year, we're talking about the way that the games are going to be officiated. There could be more scoring, right. With some of this, you know, defensive passing, you know, pass interference type stuff, illegal contact things could lead to more scoring. So yeah, again, right. We're applying that same thing. Like I was talking about with the Vikings, Hackett and the Packers were fourth in pass rate over expectation last year we've never seen russ in anything close to that so and even so he still led the league in air yards per attempt last year like russ is still there i'm not really worried about late season ross last year and all that happened there so yeah i like that that nugget a little bit more with that uh yeah so it was actually so it was last year 13 teams the year before was 15. so i So, I mean, either way, like it's, you know, I think the fringe top,

expecting them to be a fringe top 10 team in scoring is more than a comfortable distance there. And also, you mentioned Russ before, like late season Russ. Prior to his injury last year in the first four games, he was sixth in CPOA EPA composite score, which is a pretty good metric that combines two, you know, completion percentage over expectation and expected points added. So I think that is a pretty good metric that combines two, you know, completion percentage over expectation and expected points added. So I think that's a pretty good metric to look at.

And that's exactly where he's been at for essentially his whole career. So not worried at all. All right. My next one of multiple playoff bets. I'm going to take the Titans to not make the playoffs. That is available at plus one 10 on Caesars. I know the AFC is, well, the AFC is loaded. And I know we talked about all the time last year, the Titans being the worst number one team of all time. They actually were 20th at the end of the regular season last year in Football

Outsiders DVOA metric. That is the worst for a number one seed ever and then things have gotten worse the offensive line is below average they have starting rules for grabs at right guard or sorry left guard and right tackle they were 24th in pass block and run block win rate last year we are on three straight years of ryan tannahill regressing from a dvoa standpoint in clean pockets it's actually getting really bad under pressure. Again, everyone's bad under pressure or worse under pressure, but Tannehill's is kind of, it's going the same way, even in clean pockets, which isn't great. The AJ Brown trade, as referenced earlier, when you were talking about the Eagles,

that seems to be an early L because again, Trel burks might end up having it he just doesn't seem to have it yet um they're gonna run a lot of two receiver sets so they can figure it out but derrick henry's workload was massive last year before he went down but the efficiency was not he started to really regress they saw a lot more stuff boxes and again that gets easier to do when tannahill doesn't have any real weapons that you're worried about and does not have a great offensive line. So again, because I think this division is so, or not the division, but really the conference is so much better. I think it's going to be really hard for the Titans to make the playoffs here. I think the defense is going to be strong. They have talent on both sides, or I'm sorry, at all levels. Good pass rush,

nice secondary. They've added a lot of pieces in the draft over the last couple of years. I think variable gets the most out of his guys, but I think this is really an uphill climb and Titans missed the playoffs plus one 10. Yeah. I like that a plus money because I mean, they have to win their division. Like that's there's, there's no way that this conference is a two playoff team. When looking at the rest of the AFC, we've got the bills, chiefs, chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Bengals, Colts. And then we have, those are all teams that I would consider front runners for the playoffs. Then you have teams like the Raiders, Dolphins, I mean, Browns to some extent, you know, if they are able to rack up a few early wins and

Watson comes back and crushes it down the stretch, they'll certainly be in the mix too. So I think like all of those teams are really in the mix to make the playoffs. And so competing in the Titans, basically just not to win the division is a good look. Yeah. The plus money. I like it quite a bit. What's your next one, buddy? All right. We will go back to a, another long shot here. I'm going to go with CD lamb to lead the league in receptions. I mean, I think that this number here, you're looking at 17 to one on FanDuel 15 to one at other spots. 15 to 1 is fine you obviously get the best number but you know i think that wherever

you can get it i think this is a good look because the more that i break it down the more i just can't stop adding to this i mean i don't know what i originally put on it in our discord or whatever but i every time i look at it i want to add more amari cooper's gone james washington already out for the year injured michael gallup's likely to miss half the season. So you're looking at CeeDee Lamb's target competition being Jalen Tolbert, Semih Fahoko, and Noah Brown. I mean, basically no target competition. And then beyond that, Kellen Moore, as the offensive coordinator the past few years, the Cowboys have put up the fifth most pass attempts

in the league, which is not necessarily due to their pass rate. Their pass rate's been in the middle of the pack, but their pace has been, you know, rapid top three in pace for each of the past three seasons. So essentially we're looking at a team that's going to be passing a ton and has no competition and CD lamb. I mean, I think can be an alpha. So you're looking at double digit targets every game, uh, for a guy from an efficient

quarterback in Dak Prescott that, you know, I just, at this point in like 15 to one, 20 to one, 17 to one, like in that range, it's just a great sweet spot here. I know Cooper cup is obviously going to rack up a ton of targets. I know that, you know, Devante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Jamar chase all good looks, but at the same time, I really think that a guy like CD lamb is able to compete with the best. So 15 to 21 is a great look there. Yeah. I didn't hug it, but I i tailed it i got in on a sprinkle a little bit after um look here you can look at our tool on site to get a feel for um some of the things that are out there reception leader 17 to one yeah so it looks like fanduel is still the best number in the marketplace again nice value compared to points bet which is down to 11-1 so

again all you need to do to use this tool is go into the betting tab, find the player prop tool finder, and click in the little inbox. You can type in CD lamb. You can see there, Sal walking us through it, player prop finder, click in CD lamb. You can get basically every CD lamb market that is out there, which is outstanding stuff. This makes life so much easier than having all the tabs

and seeing what's moving and what you lost and whatnot. So it's a cheat code for sure. So yeah i mean i think we see here yeah yeah for sure sure but like not not really like he's definitely a you know competition internally for targets but um if the i have questions about the dallas defense too so i think that there's more reasons for them to be you know very pass happy and CD lamb is, is the way to go there. So, yeah. I mean, if you're looking at like whatever, 600 pass attempts, roughly, I mean, I think there were over 2000 for the past three years. So, you know,

right around there, maybe even a little bit more, you know, what does Schultz have got maybe like one 20, one 30, you know, kind of in that range of targets. I mean, literally CD lamb could be in like the, you know, 180, 200 range potentially. All right. Another playoff bet for me. The New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs. Saints are going to make the playoffs plus 125 on DraftKings.

I like this number quite a bit. I know the Sean Payton loss is impactful. He's one of the best play callers that we've seen in this era of football. There's continuity here, though. Dennis Allen, longtime defensive coordinator, taking over as head coach. And Pete Carmichael, who has been on staff there, is staying on as the OC. So I think that that helps kind of offset that a little bit. It's still a loss, but it's not really massive.

And then it's really hard to take anything away from what happened with the Saints last year. They had massive injuries all over the place. Actually, they were second in football outsiders, adjusted games lost due to injury on the offensive side of the ball. They had the least offensive line continuity in the league. Jameis went down early and we had starts from Ian Book and Trevorvor simeon at times mixed in there with you know tasem hill getting hurt so it's just kind of a mess now a massive upgrade at receiver with michael thomas back crystal lave in the draft jarvis landry a proven slot commodity there's just a massive upgrade there as well and then alva kamar looks like he's going to get away

with not get away with what he did but you know that will be dealt with in the offseason so from a saint standpoint from a football standpoint we can take advantage of 16 17 games of kamara here so and defensively this is one of the best teams in the league alan stays on they added marcus may who's i think one of the best rough year last year with the jets but is a really talented versatile safety honey. Honey Badger there as well. Cornerback is really deep and talented. And this was one of the hardest teams, if not the hardest team to run on last year. They're going to continue to be a top five unit. They can avoid cluster injuries like they had last year on both sides of the ball. They have the Bucs number in

the last couple of years with Tom Brady there. Again, similar to the Vikings. I don't think that they win the division per se, but I think that they're a real threat to that top team. And then I like them better than some of the other teams here in the NFC, which I think is wide open. So Saints plus 125 to make the playoffs. That's another good one. I think looking at the landscape of the NFC is pretty helpful too here when looking at like playoff locks, because the Bucks, Packers, and Rams,

I feel pretty good will make the playoffs, you know, be one first or second, or, you know, win enough games, make the playoffs regardless. Um, but then we have like the 49ers, the Cowboys, the Eagles, the Cardinals, Vikings, the saints, you know, it's, I think that group of teams, I mean, after that, it's the commanders is the next high side. They're not making the playoffs. Um, you know, but then like that grouping there, I think all have a chance to make the playoffs. And, you know, I think you, you've already mentioned on a previous show is you're a little bit more down on the Cardinals. We've mentioned it earlier. We're a little bit more down on the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could certainly still make the playoffs, but you know, we like the Eagles potentially explode

there and make, win the division. And the 49ers are going to be, I mean, all over the place. It's a, you know, I have no idea what to expect out of Trey Lance. Every report we get is literally that he's thrown two to three interceptions or that, you know, he is just lighting it up and like scrambling around and looks like, you know, the next Patrick Mahomes. So it's going to be incredible to watch. I'm stoked. But, you know, in terms of the consistency and win loss, I have no idea how it's, it might drive people crazy. So range of outcomes for the Niners feels massive. And they had some pretty impactful losses on the defensive side too, which again, I know they have some playmakers there and some names that we like,

but like secondary is not very good. DJ Jones was a big loss for them along the offensive line. There are definitely concerns with the Niners. I think they're in the mix. I'm kind of with you. Like Dallas, like, yeah, I think that's probably a playoff team.

Would I be shocked that that's a one playoff team division? Because I definitely think the Eagles are, I'm with you. I think they're the division winners there. Like would not be surprised so again the saints i know have a i think we know defensive metrics and it's less sticky year to year but i think this is a great defense there's a ton of talent here and then the offensive side like i don't know jamis being back there's a massive upgrade in weapons even if michael thomas is slow to kind of come to i think a lot of in in you know jar Landry are – what were we talking about?

Marcus Calloway last year? Deontay Harris? Like it was not pretty. So I just kind of like this team. The schedule is pretty nice. Yeah, Saints go to the playoffs. Solid, solid. All right.

So, yeah, this is my last one here, and I had to put it on the board. I mean, you have to have the most – like, you know, this is something that I've been banging the drum for since after the draft, which is bears under six wins. This is, you know, minus one 25 only on Caesars. I was pretty surprised when I saw that. So I looked at our prop tool. Cause I was, you know, trying to find a way to work the bears into this because, you know, we've, I mean, we took under seven in may we took under five and a half all twins a month ago at like plus 180 or plus 160 so heavy juice there now that's down to like essentially plus 120 at fanduel at five and a half and then under six and a half right now on

draft games it's minus 190. i mean this team right now is just such a disaster and it's not necessarily the fault of their current front office but they didn't do enough to help and i think that there's a little bit there's some issues there because the opposite line right now it's going necessarily the fault of their current front office, but they didn't do enough to help. And I think that there's a little bit, there's some issues there because the offensive line right now, it's going to be a bottom five offensive line. Like there's, they've been shuffling things in and out as of a couple of days ago, they still did not have their starting lineup. And,

you know, Riley reef, who they just signed, they announced it's not even starting Larry, Larry Borum is starting over him, which, you know, again,

disaster. They have no one talented on their offensive line outside of, you know, maybe Lucas Patrick is slightly talented. So they're going to be bottom three. Their pass catchers are a joke. I mean, Darnell Mooney is a solid, I would say, number two option on offense, but I'm not sure how well he's going to function as a pure number one. And outside of that, they traded for Nikhil Harry, who's already injured.

They got Byron Pringle. Who's already injured. Uh, they drafted 25 year old Vilas Jones. Who's again was burning 18 year olds. You know, like if you're in your sixth season and you're finally breaking out, you're just probably not good. So, um, David, you know, right. So you're just giving, you're not, I like fields. Don't get me wrong.

I think that he could be a good player, but you're giving him nothing on offense. You're giving him nothing. And then beyond that him nothing and then beyond that luke gets you i have concerns about too you know he was probably what fourth in command third in command in green bay he was the quarterback's coach so you know leflore hackett rogers and him maybe deciding together i mean like on on what you know he's not calling play so he's calling plays for the first time uh and then beyond that we got you know the most confirmation bias I've ever gotten all off season today in reports from the athletics, Kevin Fishbane, who said this offense was horrible and in camp and did not have any big plays and was not able to move the ball like, you know, consistently.

And what makes things scarier is this came against the Bears defense who lost Cleo Mack, lost Eddie Goldman, did not sign Larry Ogunjobi, is starting two rookies in the secondary who were higher picks. But again, second round, that's not enough to instantly expect an awesome impact there. So I think that they're in the range for four, five, six wins. Obviously, we got better numbers, but I still like the under six, minus 125 at Caesars. To your point here,

I would not take the minus 190 on DraftKings. I would rather just, at that point, if you really want to take an under, take the plus money on the under five and a half with FanDuel. At least that's where I'm at. I think you're in a similar boat here, Noonan. Yeah. I mean, it's really hard to say good things. I actually really want to like Justin Fields, and I think he's talented. I liked him coming out. I think the skills there are exciting. I think the problem that the Bears are going to find themselves in is that they're going to get to the end of the season and still not know if he's the guy because they're not really giving him an actual shot, both in terms of the offensive line and the pass catching core, as you laid out really well so yeah it's it's just kind of a shame like the defense can be okay and i think that that is probably the their best case scenario

but i still don't think that they're going to be enough to be like a an elevator i don't think that that's going to be like enough to help them like really win games when it comes down to it because they're gonna have to make enough plays and yeah it's great that he's has the ability to scramble and extend plays and create outside the pocket but that can't be that's just not good for your development to know that you really only have time for your first or maybe your second read and then it's collapsing um that creates really bad habits for young quarterbacks even ones as talented as justin field so yeah it's going to be frustrating for for bears fans this season season. So I'm with you. I would not lay the juice six and a half, you know, laying massive juice is not

necessary. I think you take a stand and you find some plus money at a five and a half or this number at Caesars, I think is probably the best way to go. Yeah. I mean, also to like these wind totals, uh, something that will capper and other smart people have measured, you know, usually they're very volatile. So they go, um, like the, the average, uh, you know, they're very volatile so they go um like the the average uh you know variation here is like ends up being two wins i think it was 2.1 wins over the past few years so you know it's you're better off taking plus money at five and a half which i think we both think is probably the right win total because you know right now they're actually only favored i think in two games so far this season despite playing a super soft strength of schedule um but we've

talked about other shows like week three against the teans, their favorite against the Texans. Like, I think that they're a worse team on paper than the Texans one-to-one. Um, and if not like neck and neck. So I think that that game, you know, again, like it's, it's a coin flip. I'm not going to say that they're for sure going to lose, but it's a coin flip. And if you guys watch the preseason games, like fields is under pressure nonstop and they are moving the ball sometimes, but it takes like an insane play, you know, like a Mooney one-handed catch or, you know, Tajay sharp, I think had a couple of nice grabs, but they were always just like, it felt like something that's not sustainable over the course of an entire game. And beyond that too, you got to think about, okay, these

are the plays that, you know, they're scripting for this offense. Like they're not just throwing them out there. They're scripting these plays. What happens when he's just got to go out there and just like run a play? I mean, who's getting open? Like I just don't see it. And I think that the more that I think about it, the more I break down,

like, is that sustainable? It's just not. So I'm trying to find as many ways as possible to fade the bears. And, you know, I did throw like 20 bucks on bears, 80 to one to go own 17,

just for the brand, because why not? You want to have that ticket if it cashes of course i mean i i all the victory laps and i'll post all the tickets just on one one little little stub there yeah well connor again for you in chicagoland area will be out uh locally tonight at oak park uh at kettlestrings if you want to get a feel for uh you know connor face to face and uh bear down uh connor if you need to well i feel for Connor face-to-face and bear down Connor if you need to. I will have his back.

I will be there as well. Bigger than you think, and we'll take you down because the Bears suck. I'm sorry. Sorry. We like fields. We want it to happen, but it's just not happening this year. All right, I didn't want to be boring because you showed me yours beforehand, and I had a bunch of to-make-the-playoff bets,

so I wanted to sprinkle a little bit more of a long shot here. It's not really a long shot. He's actually one of the favorites in the market specifically and goes back to my first bet. Justin Jefferson, offensive player of the year, 15 to one on FanDuel um this has been over the last couple of years trending to be almost the basically the best offensive player that's not a quarterback award um if you go back a handful of years you have a bunch of quarterbacks that won but it's almost like there's this mutually agreed upon deal where the quarterback gets the mvp and the best non-quarterback is the offensive player of the year we've seen seen it with Derrick Henry Cooper cup. And I think this year is Justin Jefferson for a lot of the reasons that we

outlined earlier. He is a tremendous talent who has been, I think maybe we've got maybe 85% of him the last couple of years. And what you can have done here with a creative offensive minds and an advanced offense is really take the cap off of what this guy can do. And I think he is going to be massively impactful this year. When you look at all the advanced metrics, he jumps off the page in yards per outrun and, you know, win rate versus man, win rate versus zone, all these things. He is really tremendous. And, you know, I don't think

Kirk Cousins is terrible. He's probably a slightly better than league average quarterback. And I'm excited to see what he can do. He's not a great fantasy quarterback in the sense that he doesn't run as much. So I think sometimes in the games that we play, he gets lost in the shuffle. But again, I think that he can take advantage of the opportunities this year. And 15-1 is a really nice look when you look at some of the other guys in the market, Debo at 10-1, Derrick Henry I think is right around there at 10 to one and stuff like that. So yeah, Justin Jefferson, 15 to one offensive player of the year. I love it. And I also took him to break the NFL receiving

record. Uh, you know, it's similar price. So I think that the better way to play it as offensive player of the year, because you're right. If he breaks the offensive receiving record, he probably wins it. But I think that there's a slight chance that like jamar chase could do it too and so that's why i also bet like chase i consider it's 30 to 1 but i'm on like the t higgins and chase are closer than we think i mean chase is a game breaker for sure and that chase number is not a bad number i think it's 30 on drafting yeah i don't know if that's the best number but that's a nice look too yeah but i i agree though i think that just everything you said there and And with, as, as I mentioned earlier, just like the confirmation of the coaching staff specifically being brought in to throw the ball bunch using them in the Cooper

cup role. Like it's, it can't get much better for a guy who's already put up whatever 3000 combined yards in his first two seasons, uh, just an elite prospect. So I'm, I'm stoked about him. We took him a third in our main event draft, draft uh two thousand dollar fantasy draft took him third overall uh we drew the third pick again in vegas by the way i don't know if you you were privy to that knowledge but um we might go jefferson again and i don't even i feel good about it like i'm excited to have him as much exposure as possible yeah i've been you know again you can it's hard to go completely overweight on a guy super early on the board. But, like, anytime I'm in the mix, like, I'll take him at two in drafts just because I really feel, especially in, like, PPR drafts, like, I really want to have a lot of this guy this year. And, yeah, I think there's a nice little sprinkle to get it.

So, Producer Sal, who often joins us, the prop show in season and had a tremendous hit rate last year sharing props uh has one for us to share too so sal the uh screen is yours let's see what sal's got here oh remandre we like remandre most rushing touchdowns 80 to 1 available on points bet and bet ngm yeah i mean you're not gonna get a lot of anti remandre stuff for me. I will go anti-Pats on you. Cause I think it's going to be a rough year for New England's defense in particular, but I think that New England's best bet is to try to run the football quite a bit. The things we're hearing out of New England, we don't hear Belichick go out of his way to say specific praise to players often. And Romandre is getting a lot of love as far as like he's

working you know pass blocking and on pass down so yeah i think remandri is in a really nice spot this year so 80 to 1 is a nice little look yeah also too i mean what did damien here scored 15 touchdowns last year you know if if anything were to happen to him runs a little pure on the goal line i mean he would certainly be next in line for all those carries so you know if damien ends up being out of the picture somehow, he could certainly, you know, flirt with the top of the board there. Yeah, right. I mean, contingency bet.

It's like if something happens to Damien, that market collapses instantaneously, right? So like sometimes when you're taking long shots, it's not always necessarily about what we know right now. It's just about like what if, and then if what if is pretty clear where Romandre is, you know, has a massive, massive inside the 10, inside the five workloads.

So like it, thanks Sal. Connor, good stuff buddy. Likewise, clean, clean show here. Easy, in and out. I have a article on the site that is free for you. If you go over to 444.com under our betting tab, you can get thoughts that I have on literally every team in the future market. And again, check out some of the tools over there as well.

Again, betting tab. You can go down to the free betting sub and find ways to access it. Again, highly, highly suggest the betting sub at 444, guys. It's going to get you everything that you want on the site. All the premium tools, rankings, DFS in season, high stakes, you name it. We got it for you. So, uh, Connor and I will be back. Um, we'd be in a different form, maybe with a different third, uh, for a show next week to talk about maybe, um, season long player props. So futures, but maybe in the prop market that are still on the board for you.

So check that out. I continue to follow four44 on Twitter, at 444Bets as well to get all the betting content. Instagram, YouTube. We're in the TikTok streets hard. So you get your 444 content everywhere. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all soon. you