Move The Line - Best NFL Week 1 Bets: Sides, Totals & Team Props

Episode Date: September 10, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to Week 1 and break down the best betting opportunities across the opening NFL slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers offer value before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansCirca Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contestsWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circus Sports. Week one is here. Preseason hay is in the barn hypothetically. That's a thing. It's an old statement probably before your time. Ryan Nune, joined here as always by Connor Allen. Let's get it, man. How we doing?

Yeah, great. Week one, we got a game tonight. We are recording on a Wednesday here, get the such early after. Game Thursday. So I like the, we did what, last year, Thursday, Friday, cadence and then Sunday. This year we got Wednesday. Thursday, Thursday, no games Friday, Saturday,

then game Sunday. We'll see how we like it. I don't know. I'm not entirely sold that this is going to be better, but I'm going to be a game tonight, so can't complain. Can't complain. I'm curious to see what they do this all moving forward. This is like infatuation with demanding that the Super Bowl champs open the season is like, I guess I get it.

But like if they do this on purpose, so they already had the Australia thing plan so they had to jam something in front of it because you couldn't send in good faith, you couldn't send New England to Australia. She had to send a couple of West Coast teams to Australia. You probably shouldn't have the Super Bowl chance open in Australia. You want to raise the banner.

So yeah, anyway, it's here. I'm excited. If you missed any of our stuff this preseason, probably don't want it anymore. But we did on Monday. I go through and gave some rapid-fire bets, Super Bowl picks, probably, I don't know, 30 bets on that show, some of just getting our final season long takes, team level props, futures, awards, all that stuff.

Check it out. Again, move the line, wherever you listen to podcast, move the line on YouTube as well. If you want to subscribe to 4444, get access to everything that Connor and I do all season long, 444.com slash plans. Still this week only. So by the time you're listening to this, you can still use promo code Noon 50, Connor 50, either one of those. It's going to get you 50% off any subscription. So it gets you a Sharpstack subscription, get you picks, picks and, Sharpstack. If you don't want to bet with us, you want to get at least the pick sub.

And that comes obviously with everything that we do on the fantasy side as well, DFS, all that stuff. I'll jump in the show notes. If you have more questions, let us know to sides and totals here on a Wednesday. Friday prop drop back with high slop, Connor myself, as well as Slop, giving you a bunch of banger props for the week as well. I cannot wait to get, check back in there with Slop and get that off and running. I love prop drop. definitely one of my favorite hours of the entire week. So definitely subscribe to the YouTube channel as you want to get that live. Again, you know, we sit on these props until the Friday release.

And like we, you're watching sometimes it's like not a super smooth release because we're like trying to time the bet to release in our Discord and with you as our listeners. So like those are available, widely available live lines just like we do in the Discord side. So all right, we'll start with with Wednesday. I mean, we can keep it quick because by the time, you know, we get this to listeners, it's going to be dead and we're going to make ourselves look foolish. We have any strong, crazy takes. But I think we've both been kind of leading paths at three and a half.

We've moved to three, though, Connor. Do you have any thoughts here in Seattle minus three? Pat's three and a half. I don't think I'd play the three, but I'm also not really bad in this game much. I have some props that we released in the Discord that I like. We did play a Henderson under because all these beatwriters were adamant that he was going to play a week and a half ago turns out wasn't going to play and i definitely did not want to be holding a remandre over uh if henderson did play so that was my thought process there obviously the right play in hindsight

was the remandre over 12 and a half carries or whatever the line was um but it's all good you win some you lose some we didn't lose anything here just you know pushed avoided yeah uh how about melbourne um san fran and uh the rams i mean what do you thought to me the travel stuff has been covered like crazy but i do think it is fast fascinating in terms of like how these two teams are approaching the travel week with San Francisco being out there for a full week and the Rams basically licking to spend as little time as possible. I don't know what the effect of that is just like minimizing I guess the effect of the time zone switch post week one I guess would be the mindset of it. But obviously

it's a big time difference. Any thoughts on that matchup? I feel like it's been kind of baked in and you've I think had some pretty, I know the markets moved a little bit to the Niners side. Did you see Ed Fang had on like a sleep expert onto his show? Mm-hmm. I listened to the 45-second clip or whatever. So I didn't listen to the full show. But the clip was pretty interesting. Basically, she said that you need more days to adjust for the clock than what the 4-9ers gave themselves.

And you're probably going to have some terrible sleep and not great stuff along the way because you're already there. And that the Rams are kind of just skipping all that, getting sleep in their home and then just like getting in and out before their body clocks really even know what just. happened. They were just going out there and playing. She seemed to think that that's the correct approach, which was contrary to what I thought initially, you know, was that going there early, getting time to adjust. But she said it's not enough time to adjust. No, I don't know. This is again another game. We have like four props already released. It's just not one that I'm super interested in the cider total. One of the reasons also not putting in our circumillion entry. So just again, I've kind of just glanced over it. I think both teams are good. The

Rams are awesome. Erdell not going to play. But yeah, it's just not a side or total on betting. Kind of agree. Just to stay away, we have props. We'll probably have more props. Maybe we'll have some defensive props in that game. There could be some stuff coming there for subscribers as well. So I'm kind of with you there.

Connor mentioned, so we are in the Cirque of Millions contest this year. We have to pick five games. You know, these points where it's lock, you know, Wednesdays or so. So we're basically going to leverage this time together to sell each other, find where we're united, see if we can kind of build the majority of our five game card every week here this year on the Wednesday show. And then we'll discuss a little bit of Survivor pool action as well. We're not in that big pool, but there's a lot of good ones. We have one at 4-4-4-4 over on Splash 2.

If you just search 4-4-4, you want to get into their big survivor pool, people love Survivor. I suck at it. It seems so simple. But like it's just so tilting. I don't get enough joy out of it personally. But I think the early window in particular has a game that's going to be pretty popular with Jacksonville. Now to eight and a half point favorites against the Browns.

The Browns quarterback situation is a obviously dump their fire, unmitigated disaster. Are they a good survivor play? Are we interested in anything here? from a millions standpoint. Yeah, I think, I think Jags are going to be the most popular survivor play. I think they're really interesting from a million standpoint. I know they're a game that you and I penciled. I'm a little worried about their offensive line.

I think that's the only downfall here is if the offensive line isn't as good as we think or, you know, as bad as I guess some people are projecting, that can obviously shift the game and it's a lot of points for anyone if there's a mismatch there. Now, I don't know if the Brown's defensive line is like the most apt to, exploit, you know, a Jags offensive line there. So, yeah, I would lean towards eight and a half. We talked about this at seven, seven and a half.

It looks like it closed at eight and a half on the Circa spread. So I don't know, certainly consideration for me. We touched on this, if you remember in our AFC North preview, touching on like the, you know, overhaul an offensive line that Cleveland had. And they obviously needed it, right? Like the offensive line was a problem. And then it obviously changes good, but not all changes.

is good. And offensive lines and the, I guess just the functioning of the way that that works with continuity and how, again, this is like an entirely new offensive line. And we touched on specifically like, we need to probably go at that early in the season. Right?

Is there still kind of finding their footing? Continuity will develop as the season goes along. And while Jacksonville does have, I think a lot of questions, you know, again, he might highlighted on our show on Monday as a team that I'm like cooling off on pretty drastically was not very hot on them to begin with but I'm definitely cooling on them for

a number of reasons they definitely have the the dogs up front to take advantage of a quarterback that likes to hold on the ball that has a high pressure to sack rate and an offensive line that struggles with continuity so I do think that they are a really good survivor play and I would put them on like the consideration list for for millions but not a not an early lock or not one of my favorites, I guess, but I'd put it in the pool to circle back to him. Yeah, I would go Jags. Yeah, Jags. And then the next most popular survivor pick is going to be the Chargers, nine and a

half point favorites right now, eight and a half on the Circa board. You know, again, not a super meaningful point there. I don't think that makes us, you know, think we need to grab them. I do think that it should probably be about 10. I think that makes a lot of sense. I would expect the Chargers to have a ton of success on the ground with Omari and Hampton against the Cardinals. I'd expect the Chargers to have a ton of success through the air.

And then this Cardinals offense, Jeremiah Love looks like he's going to play, but probably not be 100%. What else are you going to get out of the rest of the team? There's a lot of holes otherwise. So I think Chargers against the spread is, again, in consideration there. And then Survivor,

we're doing a survivor pool for our company. We're giving away some entries there. So download the Bleach Nation Fantasy app there. And you can get entered. We're picking one random user. each week to join us in the Survivor Journey, and if we win, we're giving you up to $100,000.

So, yeah, which would be pretty cool. All we got to do is make, you know, whatever. I think better, 18, we're picking 18 winners. So as long as we get to the end. First pick is Chargers, though. So I already got I locked that in. I don't know why I got to make the pick, but here we are. I guess it's my

decision, so. Good start. What's interesting is these, you know, totally different conversation, but both these games have moved a little bit where they're in like, they're in like teaser zone at eight and a half which i think is interesting again not something that um i don't know key numbers are really important getting those games both below three if you wanted to do so uh is pretty interesting to me if you're considering those for for survivor um charges two and a half jack symbol two and a half feels like a pretty decent uh teaser like so uh we're

checking out um back to the uh early window bucks bangles i think one probably one of the better games of the slate of the weekends um We're at Bengals three and a half. It's one of the heftier totals on the slate as well, you know, right around 50, 50 and a half, which I think is pretty interesting. I mean, it should be a decent scoring contest in terms of, you know, both these teams bring, being pretty healthy. The Bucks are another team that I've just kind of warmed up a little bit too.

As we've got closer, just like defense is a little bit better. I'm kind of fascinated by some of the stuff they're doing in the secondary. And we'll see how that plays out. Like I really like Jacob Parrish. who was a rookie slot corner for them last year was really good they're moving him to the outside um they drafted um can'ty scott from miami who was a lot of fun to watch if you watch miami at all in college last year was kind of one of their premier guys in the defensive side kind of played like a hybrid star safety role they're going to put him in the slot so like

perished a little undersized which is a problem for this you know this duo um that the bangles have um there's a little bit of a dog so i'm just to see if that works out well for tamab ban I'm a big Ruben Bain fan. But any thoughts here on Bengals full strength at home? Bengals have notoriously kind of stumble a little bit in week one in the Joe Burrow era. But thoughts on Bengals three and a half against Tampa Bay. Yeah, it's a really interesting match. I think we were worried about the Tampa receiving core a little bit early in last week.

McMillan was injured. Bigbuka was injured. Both look like they're going to play heading into this game. The Bengals have been actually pretty good against wide receiver ones. you know, but we're really susceptible against tight ends, middle of the field stuff, slot guys. So I think Godwin could be an interesting spot there. The three and a half is tough.

That's what we're looking at Circa with. Pinnacle has four. I think that's somewhat noteworthy. So I don't know. I guess if there's like a small lean there, I guess, on the Bengals. But the Bucks are a team also as well where they, in my opinion, had the best roster in that division. But there was just, I guess, wasn't enough there.

I thought the Saints could maybe ascend. They're kind of beat up at this point too. So it's kind of a back and forth where I think the Bucks probably the best team in the division. The roster is getting better. Baker was obviously clearly hurt last year. But if everyone's healthy, then they're probably a pretty good team. Yeah.

I lean three and a half with the bucks, but not something I want to like cape up for millions per se. But I think that that's interesting. I think the Godwin call out is fantastic. These Bengals perimeter corners are better than people. people realize. And you're totally right. The way to go at, especially in the prop market, is going to be slot receivers, past catching running backs. You know, it's a market we don't love, but like, you know, probably decent gain well week and like a K-dot in week.

But I think that's a really good call out specifically on the Tampa Bay side. So, yeah, it'd be bucks or nothing, get in the three and a half. Ravens Colts. Colts are catching three and a half at home. You've been, you know, somewhat pumping the Colts tires all offseason. They are, you know, against some points at home, not in the division, but, you know, Home Dog Week 1, where, again, historically, it's been most volatile week, wonky. We come in with all these, you know, we've been doing this since, you know, April, you know, thinking about how these teams are going to be when we get to this point of the year.

So we have thoughts. Our thoughts are not always right. So I think oftentimes taking points, especially at home, makes a lot of sense. I'm expecting you to cape up for the Colts here. Yes. And I would like to maybe consider them for our Cirque Millions entry. Three and a half, I think is pretty good. We're looking at right now Bookmaker has at three.

Profit X has $2,000 of liquidity on both ways at three. pretty close, narrow spread there. Some other spots are still at three and a half, but including Pinnacle, but Pinnacle also has minus 120 on the Colts at plus three and a half. Again, I think the market's like leading that way and starting to move that way. Wouldn't you be surprised to see a three across the board.

At this point, now the way things are trending. But just overall, again, I want to be a Colts Bowl. Do they win? Not entirely sure, but I think there's enough here for them. One of the best offices in the league last year when Daniel Jones was healthy. added stuff on defense mid-season. Obviously ended up being a lost year with Daniel Jones, but still a lot of good pieces there.

So I want to be interested in the Colts here, and I think plus three and a half is a pretty good number at home. Again, against a good, a good, a good, I think the Colts are also a good team. And I think they're being really undervalued. Yeah, and the half is nice. So I have some concerns with Indy, but I'm concerned with Baltimore, too.

Probably more than the market does. So I can be sold on that. I mean, and again, like what they do with offball linebacker is a disaster right now. But like, does that really impact this game specifically? Probably not. Yeah, right. A.G. Halsey, second round pick safety from LSU, questionable. There's a little depth behind him.

So they'll probably be okay. So they have some shifts. But again, cornerback room is nice. Everyone's healthy up front, which you love to see. And, you know, again, having DeForest Buckner. and Grover Stewart in the middle to kind of slow down Derek Henry a little bit is possible. And one that we both like when we were in Vegas at Circa, when looking at the board early to get a feel for where the lines were at,

hopefully they would hold. Was the Steelers at home a minus three against the Falcons? We're out to three and a half now, which I think is more than appropriate with obviously all the questions and concerns about the quarterback room in Atlanta. and Tua basically winning the job by default. I mean, I don't know how to put it any other way. It kind of feels like what happened. It didn't go out and win it.

It's just like, the Panics isn't ready yet. So you're up. We're both kind of like, I'd say above market on the Steelers this season. Concerns about Aaron Rogers like anyone would have. But overall, it's a really strong roster and a team that feels like could terrify a quarterback, like Tua who wants to get the ball out quickly. I'm still interested in Pittsburgh, even though we're out to three and a half.

I kind of think so as well. I also think that because we got the move from three to three and a half, maybe they're underpicked in circa millions. Maybe like, I don't know, maybe they're just not utilized as much. And I think could easily blow the Falcons out of the water. The Steelers defense, I think projects to be pretty good, especially at full strength. What are we going to get out of Rogers?

Not entirely sure. But new coaching staff, well, what he's familiar with, obviously, I think plays a massive advantage to him and what he wants to run offensively. And then, I mean, they have some good pieces. Michael Pittman, D.K. Maccalf, a couple of good pass catching tight ends. And, you know, same with the running back room

and Jalen Warren. So I think that this team, especially a pair of this with the Falcons, maybe inability to get pressure, which matters a ton. A thousand percent, especially with the Rogers, right? Right, totally.

That was going to be my handicap when you were done. And so you nailed it. So I was, you know, giving you credit for that because that's it. Right. Like the Rogers piece is like, it's pretty easy. Like if you're going to consider Pittsburgh, it has to be a team that I think is going to be below average and getting pressure. For sure. Because they're going to struggle mightily to get pressure this season, especially early in season while they're still beat up slash suspended slash, you know, whatnot.

So it's a hodgepodge of guys that are to be coming off the edge. They don't have like a great interior pass rusher. They also have questions of linebacker. They also have some young guys. Again, they have, you know, a fairly decent secondary, but the rest of it's kind of garbage. So I want to find ways to bet on Pittsburgh when they're facing a team

that's going to struggle to generate pressure. That is Atlanta in a nutshell. So Steelers minus three, a strong, strong, strong lean for me. Another one, Chicago, Carolina, which again, surprised me a little bit. You know, we're definitely a wet blanket on all things bears. the preseason and then dropped a Bears you know final four appearance on me in our

final divisional pick show which caught me off guard admittedly um here's some two and a halfs now we're out basically Bears at three there's a road game um but again very much down on the Panthers as well how do you feel about Chicago at Carolina yeah this is like mega chalk I think for pretty good reason so I don't know I'm I'm not of the belief that just because something's chalk makes it a terrible thing. pick, right? I don't think that it's bad pick. But it also was like two, two and a half. It was just getting hit and hammer and hammer and hammer and finally they moved to three. And now we're sitting at three at circa officially three across the board pretty much in most sports books.

I want to believe that this Bears team is going to offensively just shred the Panthers. I think that's very much in play. Now the problem is I think the Bears defense is going to suck. Like I'm pretty worried about them. And so I think the Panthers might look okay offensively. especially in the passing game like tet could just run or like do whatever he wants against basically the uh against the bears secondary so i'm pretty worried there uh and so that's my only concern again but i think that won't matter if chicago scores like 30 points which is also very much in play i think ted eats of the especially they move in the slot but i think that the bears are okay like they Xavier woods probably shouldn't have been available they were able to grab him and he's going

to start safety which makes up for the Kobe brian loss they had cam lewis who kind of played like this combo nickel backup safety role in buffalo for the last couple years. Cam Lewis is going to play, I think, mostly in the slot. I know they liked Muhammad, who they drafted and played pretty well. He's mixing around. Like, he might play some slot. He might play in the corner perimeter. Like, I think they're going to be okay.

I think against the team that's going to struggle to protect on the edge. Like, again, the boy, Austin Booker, you know, might not stop the run or set the edge very well, but you can go get the quarterback a little bit. Yeah. I think they're going to be okay. And I think they're going to be okay against Carolina. So I would much rather be sitting here looking at a two and a half. But I think three is still, like you said, in consideration, not a surefire lock that I think

we felt maybe, you know, a week and a half ago. But I think still still a pretty pretty good lean. Yeah. No, I like, I like that one for sure. And one other one that I think is worth discussing now is we're seeing the dolphins, Raiders, Raiders were three and a half point favorites now with the loss of Brock Bowers for a couple of weeks. They're down to three, so from three and a half to three. And to be honest, I mean, it's a tough loss, right?

Like you're now relying on a combination of Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor, and Michael Meyer, mayor to really lead a passing offense there. Ashton Genties prayer circle seems to have healed him, but I doubt that they're just going to jam Genty the entire time. So I don't know, man. Like I, where I felt really good about the Raiders and maybe laying something here, like I think Bowers matters a lot for this passing game and just team in general. Like he was their best player for the most part outside of, I don't know, I mean, Crosby, I guess. But, you know, I don't know. I'm worried.

I mean, I'm still shook from this news. Yeah, your bags are packed on the Brock Bauer stuff in fantasy for sure. You're also your bags are packed on the fantasy side of like, you know, anything short. boarding the dolphins. I mean, I felt like there was going to be like some Raiders love and Survivor. Just because it's like a, what are you going to read the Raiders? Let's just get them off the board kind of a situation. They're hosting the dolphins. Like, let's get it. I wouldn't have advised that, but I wouldn't understand why the thought process would be there to young receiver group, bad young receiver group. Like, you know, Chris Bell is barely played and he's on that chart

as a starter. I think he's fun and exciting, but maybe in like November. So yeah, I mean, I'm, you're going to try to push three and a half on Miami now? No. No, no, no, no, no. Okay, I don't think so.

I'm never better than Miami. That's just to be clear. The Raiders could still end up winning by, by a lot of points here. If they can get anything out of their passing game, you know, and if, uh, what Mike Washington or whatever,

ever can lead the way with Genti. That's all still possible. Like that's very much that they could just establish it. And Kirk's fine and they win by a touchdown. That's all very much in range here. But I just would have felt a lot better of it if they had Brock Bowers. For sure. As a couple more early Slate games.

One of the other more exciting ones in terms of total that's pushing out to, you know, 50-ish or so is the Saints at Lions. We're down to six and a half in some spots. It is seven on the circuit board, though. And again, a healthy total track meet. I mean, the total feels maybe a little low. Just considering the pace in which these two teams like to play at, some of the injuries.

Like, we cannot overstate the secondary issues on Detroit side to start the year. With both Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph out, it is a bad, it's a bad secondary. This is a bad secondary. Like, you know, that's it. the top five guys playing starting for them are, you know, replacement level or some replacement level, I think we would say comfortably. Now, again, we probably like New Orleans a little bit more.

We had Jordan Tyson to fire, but like, you know, kind of like Devon Valey to step in and be okay. Chris Olavay should eat. Juan Johnson should eat. And again, the state's going to have trouble stopping everything that the Lions want to do here, too. So any thoughts on now that it's against seven on the circuit card? Yeah, seven on the circuit card has me a little bit interested in the Saints, a little bit. This is another tight one. This is like the, with the Lions scoring 30 points is basically just can the Saints keep up?

Can the Saints kind of like capture the fire and the flame that they had at the end of last season and keep that rolling this year? I mean, you see all the time where teams just get hot and then they come to next year and it just doesn't work. and it's like just not the same that it was before now there aren't enough changes that i think think it should be any different their offensive line should be good um as you mentioned they have they added i mean a better running game than last year with travis etn i think so there are definitely reasons to be bullish here i think that they keep it within a score uh i'm just not i'm not sure yet are you are is it on your card like are you thinking that it needs to be or what i think it's worth considering but i'm not going to like push if we have five others that we we like more it's just the backdoor

ability here with like New Orleans passing and like I think there's still I like ATN I like the offensive line but I think it's still like a really good rush defense but I think if they can keep Aiden Hutchinson out of the backfields I think

they're going to be able to find some time and be able to again just feels like a you know they're down 10 with you know two minutes left and you know we're very much live that type of scenario, right?

So the seven, six and a half I would not be interested in. And again, six and a half some places, but the seven is at least a little bit appealing. So another one I'm really interested to see what your thoughts are. I don't think we touched on this at all. It's the last early, no, there's two more early state ones. Jets Titans. Titans are point and a half favorites at home against the Jets.

Lowest tutorials of the week for sure. I'm not going to give you my hand. I'm going to lean my hand. all. But do you have any thoughts on Jets Titans? I mean, I'm assuming you're going to be on the Jets here, right? I'm in on the Jets here. Okay. I, I hear you. I understand it. I don't disagree. I have a reason to disagree with you. I think the Jets are a better team on paper. They're dogs. I mean, they're on the road. Yeah, I don't love the Jets. I think that they're like a little bit overinflated relative to like, I don't know, I mean, Gino Smith, he's been pretty bad for a while

at this point. Um, you know, like the, the weapons are good, but there's, I don't know, still some weird coaching staff stuff. Like we talked about Aaron Glenn and the last one is like, maybe Aaron Glenn's just a lame duck coach, which I think he is. So, um, Frank Frank, Frank Reich. I mean, gross. Stinky, you know, real stinky. Like that stuff is bad. So, I, I don't know. I think that the Jets are probably the, like, the right side on paper, like roster-wise. I just worry about some of the extra stuff that you just don't really know about until the season starts.

You know what I mean? Like, if the Jets win four games again, I would just be like, oh, well, the Jets are the Jets, you know, and then they fired everyone and they have a couple of good players, but, you know, it just doesn't work out. So that's my only concern is that we just get Jets, essentially. Yes. Yes. I like Jets.

I think they should be in consideration. Again, I'm not going to push. they're not like a hey i think we have to have the jets but like the jets aren't actually a bet again i know you talk about they didn't have an interception last year which is crazy um when i look at the defensive unit this year again thinking about the matchup like every any offensive line ranking worth its weight still has tennessee as a bottom three unit they still have problems i'm like we don't want to talk about it because i think everyone wants cam more to be really good and there

There's some like exciting plays and stuff last year, but like a lot of the stuff, like a lot of advanced analytics on him are not good. Like a lot of it is not good. They did not have a really clean preseason and like David Bailey looked like a monster. Will McDonald is also really good. In Minka Fitzpatrick, like you have an adult in the room in the back half. They invested a ton in the secondary and they continue to do so. Like it's they brought on to Mario Davis, who's 45 years.

old and still kind of balling out at linebacker like they the defense is like pretty good um and they brought in like a couple of other like ancillary defensive ends and defensive lineman like David on yamana on the interior like they there's a like there's a like some guys i like some pieces on the jets um i would like to feel they're like a little bit more encouraged and maybe push this a little bit harder on you if grease hall is clean um because without it's it's a little trickier so um i'm they're in my pool short list, but again, not a, not a must have, but it's definitely jets or nothing. And again, a team that I think has a pass rush attacking Tennessee, like these would be the spots that we would kind of want to highlight.

So, Bill's Texans, a fascinating football game. I'm not keeping up for either side in millions per se. No, I kind of think that the Texans are a really tough match for the bills, but that's, you know, I'm not bad than that. I agree. on. Yeah. It's funny because I'm looking at the board.

I think all of my favorite plays are pretty much the last like four or five. Okay. Yeah, I think we're on some of the similar ones based off of our discussion when we're in Vegas. So we touched on Miami in Las Vegas. Green Bay, Minnesota is another one that we definitely highlighted while we're out there. It has moved a little bit. The circuit board pretty much matches the market now. We are Minnesota one and a half.

It was Green Bay minus one and a half, not too long ago, but the year's, been, I think the market moving both ways on both of these clubs. There's been a little bit more pro-Mnesota sentiment in the market. We were there early. And then a little bit more anti-Green Bay. I think we were there early too. I think this is an important one for some of these futures in terms of like, you know, win towards the Minnesota side, Green Bay to miss the playoffs.

You know, I have some five to one Minnesota to win the division. All these things are really impactful. But again, the just hasn't been a lot of positive news coming out of Green Bay. and look, I think they're going to be fine. I think the quarterback's too good. I think the coach is too good for them to be like full face plant. But I think Minnesota has a real upside potential here. Even though we moved to the other side of one and a half,

I still like Minnesota. I agree. I think they're going to be able to run the ball well with Jordan Mason. I think that their defense is going to give the Packers off of the line some problems and really just try and force Jordan love to be a hero. and cause a lot of mistakes. And again, with Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, I think they're going to have some kind of combination of them,

maybe a little bit of Caleb Johnson. I don't think that the Packers are going to be able to have a bunch of running game. Again, it's just going to come down to Jordan Love being a hero if the Packers want to win this game, which I think that I'd rather bet on Minnesota just being a little bit more well-rounded. I don't think Kyler even has to do all that much here to be for the Vikings to win. So, yeah, I like the Vikings minus one and a half. I think they're one of my better looks of the week.

Same, same day. kind of low-key stuff on Minnesota side. Like, you know, they drafted Dallas Turner the first round a couple of years ago, and he was kind of buried behind Jonathan Grenard. Jonathan Grinard missed a lot of time last year. When Jonathan Grinard was off the field and Dallas Turner was on the field, Minnesota's run D is significantly better. He's a way better, like, complimentary edge set the edge run defender than Jonathan

Grinard, who's an elite, you know, pull your hair back, go get the quarterback kind of guy. Dallas Turner, also awesome at that too. But also I think it just has a little bit younger, a little bit more awareness there. I think Green Bay probably struggles a little bit to run the football with, you know, full on Dallas Turner this season. So yeah, Green, Minnesota, I think a lock for us on the picks this year or this week. Yeah. Next is the commanders at Eagles.

There are some five, five and a halfs in the market. Circus stuck at four and a half. The Eagles at home. Another just situation where, you know, the commanders would just. just kind of a tough, tough summer. I think it was our first divisional preview show. We both kind of made the case for the commanders being maybe a little sneaky. And then basically nothing good came out from camp after that.

We definitely walked that back, you know, on last show. But I'm guessing you're a little interested in the Eagles here. Yep, yeah, Eagles, four and a half is interesting. I think we could even touch six in the market by close, which is possible the way that this has been moving. So, yeah, I think four and a half here is a good. look again in circa and just overall i think the offensive lines they're going to just dominate both trenches which matters a ton and then the eagle secondary is great too so i think it's going to

they're going to be able to have a chance to lock up terry and and stephan digs and that just again puts it all the pressure on jane daniels coming back from a season ending injury so that's just a really tough sell for me on the commanders meanwhile i think the eagles they are playing a new offense i get that but at its core i think we'll have a ton of success running the ball and moving the ball there So then that makes everything else easier. And, you know, if they have any juice offensively in the passing game or new scheming from the new officer coordinator, like, you know, they can win by a lot. So I think we're not asking for a ton here from four and a half. And we're getting market value.

Yeah, they let Jonathan Allen and some guys walk in the off season because they had Johnny Newton to step in on the interior of the defensive line. He's out. It's a big loss for them, especially in a, you know, even with him in the lineup, you're mismatched, you know, in the trenches and, you know, in the trenches. trick wise and um you know there's a bunch of other injuries that have piled up here in the last couple weeks um you know Armstrong like there's a bunch of like the guys that are out for the commanders stuff at Treyamos one of their better corners out like there's just a there's been anything really good um you're starting you know technically backups in a number of spots on the defensive side to start the year so and the offensive line laramette tonsul so

tough tough tough tough go um all right uh touch touch touch on Arizona and the Chargers a little bit. Sunday night, Dallas at the Giants. You know, I don't say these are tropes because I don't think that's necessarily fair. There's some math behind, like, you know, divisional home dogs,

especially probably early in the season. You probably historically have been on the right side of doing that and taking points at home in the division. Like Dallas going a Super Bowl, but you're not going Super Bowl if you can't go into New York and be the Giants in week one. I like Dallas and I'll lay the two and a half and be a chalk donkey. What do you think?

Yeah, I think Dallas. Dallas is really interesting here. There are three in Circa, which sucks a little bit. That's right. Yeah. But I still think it could be good. Again, maybe chalk. This Giants team is really interesting.

I guess the more that I kind of dug into them is like, I feel like they could end up being a surprise team this year in a good way, just because of like the coaching. staff and the defensive line is elite and in terms of pass rush. And then Malik neighbors looks like he's healthy. And Cam Scadaboo is alive somehow after an off season, the off season, it seems like every week he's as of this recording.

Yes, as of this recording, like back flips after a broken ankle on stage and, you know, trying to fight guys during practice, his own teammates, his own coach calling him an infectious disease in the wrong way, saying he's like a bad disease. But apparently they all, they love each other, I guess. I don't know.

I, again, but everything else side, like Harbaugh is a great coach. So I think this team could do it with some games. Now on paper, the Cowboys are just like so much better that I think the three is certainly interesting. That's like, again, it has my final list there. But I do think that I've warmed up the little giants a little bit. Okay, that's fair. I mean, I think that there are Ravens fans and this could be just like, you know, how this works, cyclical.

Like, they were lining up to drive Harbaugh at the airport. Correct. They were not, they were good with that. And again, you could, like, yeah, they were always competitive. But they also had like a multi-time MVP who, like, could have won the MVP in other years they didn't win the MVP. They just couldn't get over the hump for whatever reason. And I like, there's some other, it's not quite like Frank Reich's type of like assisting coaches. But like, it's not an awe-inspiring coaching staff.

outside of you know harbaugh who again probably deserves as flowers as an above average coach but it's not like oh this is i don't know i'm i'm if the roster is more interesting to me than than the other stuff but you know i get it so dallas on the list but i understand the hesitation mostly for like i said the top like probably okay like avoiding divisional road favorites um it's probably pretty good probably pretty good process in a in a big contest like this too so what about a divisional road dog you got a divisional road dog that i like quite a bit here on monday night yeah i think broncos plus three against the chiefs uh it's pretty interesting i think we money or both well yeah yeah i think money line i think that the broncos are straight up going to win i mean if you look at the chiefs

someone was asking about the chiefs the other day and i was like well you got your wide receiver one spent time in jail and prison. Your tight end one. It's kind of chubby. Just got married. He's probably retiring. You know, like your wired receiver two,

who you thought was going to be awesome, has basically done nothing. He's been injured and is just fast. Like, he's improving that he's going to do literally anything else. Like you need, and then your quarterback is coming off to season ending injury.

You just lost your left tackle for the, for at least this week. There's just a lot of negative. I have no idea what they're doing. corner i have no idea what they're doing a corner who do i don't i have my projections are are jacked up because i have no idea find different different stuff on different beat reporters different news articles different you know websites that do depth charts that i sometimes think are inaccurate i don't know i think it's going to be more legurious need than i thought but no one's really

committed to that um he might play slot corner he might play i have no i really don't know what they're doing a corner except mansor we're doing lane probably plays a lot but like that's kind of all I know yeah which I would figure I mean after drafting him in the first round there it makes sense trade it up right traded up to six with the Browns to get mansard and Elaine which is kind of a bit of a surprise I think most people thought that they were going to go a different direction there so yeah that's again when we talked to the broncos a bunch but everything it's almost been the opposite like everything for them this off season felt like it's been positive yeah Jonathan Cooper's not great but like yeah they got dogs

They got other guys in the bench. Jonah Ellis will slide right in. They'll be okay. But I'm with you. Yeah, that's one of my favorites do. Okay. So short list is definitely some of the later stuff. So we've definitely, I think our 100% are Denver, Minnesota.

I like Philly too. I like Philly too. Yeah. I like Philly. The other two, I could be like one of a couple different games. I mean, there's a lot of different ways to go. Yeah. Okay.

I want to give you the Colts because I feel like you made an impassioned speech. Three and a half at home is probably the right play. I think it's a good process play. If it was three, I'd push back a little bit, but three and a half is more than fine. They're going to win on a last second field goal or lose on a last second field.

Well, that's how it's going to be. But they're going to score some points against the Ravens. Yeah, you're not worried Alex Pierce at all? You just think we're going to get a lot of Tyler Warren and... I mean, I think Pierce is going to play. I mean, I think he's going to be fun.

Pierce is going to play. Keenan's good, Warren's good, Downs is good, offensive line looks good, and you got Daniel Jones been practicing for like two months, maybe longer at this point. Yeah, I'm not really worried about him. So yeah, I'm interested to see how he runs. Same thing, like some of these quarterbacks that run a decent amount

that are coming off of injuries, Bo Nicks, Pat Mahomes last year ran a ton. I think he probably runs a little bit less. Daniel Jones. He didn't run a ton last year, but it is a weapon for him. It is something that he's capable of doing. Okay. All right.

I think we're rounding in the... What do you think for your fourth one? What would you push if you was your choice? I would still go Steelers minus three and a half. Oh, yeah. Okay. And then I think the fourth is pretty open. We have, I guess, based on discussion,

it would be either Jags minus eight and a half. It would be Bears minus three. Saints plus seven, Chargers, eight and a half, or Jets. I feel like you at three are not interested in the Cowboys. You probably stay away from that at the full three. Yeah, I think I'd stay away there. I think the Steelers make sense.

I think that as there is like our, so what? It was it Broncos, Vikings, Eagles, that's three. Colts Steelers. I mean, that's five, right? That's five. If you had another one, we'd want to swap out for the Colts.

I'm fine with that as well, but I think Colts are. No, I like the Colts. I like the Colts enough. I know that's one that you definitely want. and I'm good with it. I'm not like, it would be a stayaway

but not a pro raven sack for me. So it's definitely Colts or nothing. So I like, I'm good with the Colts. Awesome. Let's get some of those layout to Latu sacks started. Yeah,

absolutely. I need seven of them. So, all right. So in Survivor, you would go, you went chargers. Chargers or Jags.

If you were to go off, knowing that that's, that's probably, what would you say? 80%? I mean, I don't know. Like,

again, when you have such a big pool like you know circumil survivor you know you're going to have some off the board picks but what do you think is like the next more most popular pick considering those are definitely the two chalk someone did was doing projections on it it was like i think maybe even jenn jen made her own projections of like who people are going to pick um you're pulling it up right now um so she's projecting the lions against the saints the seven point favorites and then the raiders Steelers, Eagles, Bears. The next most popular,

the first two she was projecting would make up around 50% of total picks. I think it might be higher than that to be honest. I think it's going to be closer like 60 or 70%. Just because I think those are two clear options that are good teams,

but not necessarily elite teams, playing bad teams. So seem like more clear-cut options. I don't know. I think that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. I mean,

I don't want to bring back fishy parlay of the week. you know, a very old segment, you know, from a lifetime ago. But you're going to give me, I don't know, Denver. I can get Denver out to plus eight and a half. And I can get the chargers and jags down to minus two and a half. That's a nice little three leger plus 160. What about your jets, dude? You know, Jets through the seven.

True. Jets through, yeah. Just through the seven. But one of our new analysts, Jason Gold was talking about as well. Someone else texting me actually about that too. It was like, Jets are a great teaser leg. And I was like, oh, man. I haven't heard that in a while. But yeah, sure.

I guess that's, it makes sense. I agree with it. Week one, four leger? Let's go. Yeah, why not? Yeah, why not us? Jags, six point, jags, jets, chargers, broncos. We wait until Monday night to cash that with a layup leg with the Broncos.

I'm going to put it in. just because every time I don't, it wins. So I'm just going to put it in before I forget. I mean, you get two to one on that. I like that. I like that quite a bit. It's fun. Yeah.

It's going to be smart. You know, use the lines, work through the key numbers. You know, we're never going to go through zero. You know, we're going to do anything silly. You know, we're going to do it the right way. And smart. It's math. Use the math.

All right. Anything else with people before we wrap? Um, no. I mean, we are going to be pumping out bets. This is literally, we have a 50% off coupon if you're interested in any of our stuff. That's actually going to go away. You know, we said, you know, some people say promos go away. This is actually going to go away. It should go away. Shouldn't even be offering 50% off. But here. Yeah. Connor 50, noon and 50 can get any of our stuff here. We got a bunch of new analysts on on board. We got sides, total props, tackles, everything there. Sharp stack odd screen right now is like. like imploding because so many people are using it. And so we keep having to upgrade the server while we're live on the show here to make sure that the odds are going to move in. So all good problems to have and we'll keep having more awesome stuff there. Yeah, check it out.

Again, let us know if you have any questions, but that is going to go away. So end of the week. So make sure that you get in before the games. And again, move the line, podcast, YouTube, Wednesdays, in season. We're going to have a Monday show where Connor and I will touch base on some of the props some of the stuff that we see on Sharpstack for Monday night football. And then we're going to have, again, this Wednesday show. We'll do this, besides the totals, talking the millions contest and Survivor, and then Friday

prop drop. So make sure that you're subscribed wherever you like to listen, consume these. Those will be our three shows for the week. So we'll see you back on Friday for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.