Move The Line - Best NFL Week 2 Bets: Sides, Totals & Team Props

Episode Date: September 16, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 2 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers offer value before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Circus Sports. Ryan Newton, joined here as always by Connor Allen. Look at the, I don't know, look our wounds a little bit from a two and three start over at the Cirque of Millions. Connor, what's going on? How are we doing today? Yeah, that was rough. We had the Eagles one of our selections and I thought they were, I mean, their offense didn't play all that well. Their defense played really well for the majority of the game.

Two minutes left and they're just playing pre-vent. They're like way off the ball. They're letting Jane Daniels dinky dunk through the field. They were playing like good, a pretty aggressive defense the entire game and just kind of let them work their way down in the field and then stop them for the two-point conversion. So obviously, commanders cover. Eagles don't cover. That was really unfortunate.

And then, you know, honestly that one, that one really heard. The Colts and Broncos both kind of rolled over. You know, we had them as well, which sucks because we were between Colts, Vikings, and bears. And we decided to pick Colts and Vikings instead of the bears, which I think we all felt pretty good about the Vairs too, but there was some, I don't know, maybe fishy concerns about like how chalky is this picking to be. Didn't even end up being that chalky,

which is kind of surprising. So I don't know, maybe we're doing too much trying to pick, like predict ownership and pick percentage and stuff like that and should just pick, just hashtag play the best place, right? Yeah, just get the winners. It's obviously so easy in hindsight.

We're like, oh, yeah, well, you know, we kind of swam around this game, but we didn't push our like for sure i the colts actually got back in it a little bit it felt like all right the colts got it down to you know maybe 10 points i think they're late and then it just it went the other way so i'm like because i thought that one was dead from the jump yep the ravens got off to such a quick start now one but then you know colts fought back a little bit but look two and three that was actually with the majority of the pool fell on the week uh was the most common outcome there were no five and no squads a handful of four o and ones so

Skin started, baby. We're all right. We're all right. We got time. Back to week two. Week two is tough. I think we start the week two shows. I know I start like all my week two content the same way where it's like this super duper

balance of like, this is one week. You can't overreact. But it's also like it's a week. We haven't had anything to react to. And I think sometimes you can get caught like not reacting to fast enough. So it's really, really hard to measure what that is, how and where you should react and where you shouldn't. It's just kind of a tricky, tricky week.

Do you, like, for the most part, is that, you know, I'm guessing case by case, but like how do you approach week to considering it's just such an important week? Because we do have at least some signal after an offseason of just speculation. Yeah, it's all about contextualizing who a team was playing and how they looked against that team and how we feel like, and then comparing that to our priors and adjusting accordingly. I don't think that there's necessarily one size fits all type of rule.

But, you know, a team like the Jets and the dominoidious. win over the Titans, you know, a team that we projected to be really bad. How much does that matter? You know, whereas the dolphins getting steamrolled by a Raiders team without their best player, you know, that's that's probably not a good sign for that. Probably not great. Like, you know, again, a team that we were already low on, got beat by another bottom five team by two touchdowns and frankly never looked in it.

Like just start to finish basically. And like, I guess one point they scored a touchdown and they were down by like maybe a touchdown or something like that at that point. And it just never really felt like a game. You get Miami in a situation where they're, and we'll have that this week when we get to that handicap, where they are basically of one hand tie behind their back and you're forcing them to drop back at a high rate.

That game got a little wonky late because the writers just pinned their ears back and knew that they could click and get to Malikwis, no problem. So we don't have the official circle lines yet. It'll come on Thursday. We got them a little bit before. last week's show, partially because we had a Wednesday game. So, but again, you can kind of get a sense of how we're going to steer it and where things are right now.

We'll start with the Thursday nighter with the opening of the new stadium in Buffalo with the lions on the road against the bills. We're looking at around three and a half or so now, pretty hefty 53 point total or so. Detroit kind of play with their food a little bit. Buffalo was very impressive in a number of ways. obviously we expect a lot of a lot from i guess that texans defense this year and when you get just kind of i guess i don't know 90th percentile outcome josh allen which kind of felt like we did they're almost impossible to be and that's kind of what happened there but uh bills lane three and a half of the home opener any thoughts here on uh what we should do with this one yeah there's

not a ton of like trends necessarily that i believe in overall but i do think it's worth noting that one of our, you know, analysts in the chat brought up as well that teams coming off an overtime game on a short week. This is, I think, something that Rich Rebar, historically, and a couple other people have, like, pointed out just don't cover. And it makes sense. Like, this is something that actually makes logical sense is that teams are, have just like a way tougher time playing those extra, I don't know, 10, 15, 20 plays and then following it up on a short week there. So obviously the lines were in overtime and, you know, went through that whole thing where they scored a touchdown, and then their defense also had to play and gave up a touchdown

and stopped the two-point conversion. So, yeah, I would expect them to be a little bit more tired. Now, it was still a really tough game for the Bills, too, but the Bills only played 53 plays on offense last week, which is really interesting because, and this also made me lose a prop because the Texans ran 73 accordingly. But, you know, it's like they barely play. 53 is nothing. And then you get a, you know, a short week for them, too, but a little bit less. So I thought that was pretty interesting. I think that this game overall, it's not one that I'm excited to touch.

Like if you gave me the non-short week stuff, I think the Lions would probably be my move. I still think we're getting out five and a half now in some spots. That's a lot of points. This line seems really good. Yeah, I haven't looked since this morning. I should probably look because I have three and a half. That's a big move.

People are buying that trend. That's Steaming right there. Exactly. Yeah. And I don't know. I mean, maybe there's a variety of other angles here too. Yeah, it's moved out a decent bit.

I mean, if we ever got six, that'd be pretty crazy. But I'm looking at plus five and a minus one of six on No big. So I'm sure that you could probably get like a plus six, probably for not that much more, to be honest. Yeah, I was going to try to make a case for, again, I don't know that we want to take a bunch of Thursday games. But I was going to make the case for Buffalo. But this is definitely looking at a,

staleish number here. So that's a stay away and keep it moving. And I was really impressed by Buffalo's ability to protect Josh Allen in that game, 18% pressure rate allowed against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. And that was with like Will Anderson Jr. playing significantly more snaps than he typically does. I don't know if that's going to be a thing that continues to happen. But it's, you know, that's a great pass rush. They just moved Josh off his spot.

I saw it. I want to give credit. I forget where I saw that data. the Dalton Kincaid thing was really interesting because it was such a tell last year. Like basically it was like Kincaid's on the field. It's a pass play. But he was on the field for the majority of their run place last week. And then his overall, you know, snap rate, all that stuff was up pretty drastically.

So it just feels like another upside play DJ Moore, you know, proving that he's not washed. Buffalo is interesting. So I'm seeing four and a half on, you know, it's moving the other way, four and a half on Fandul, but we are moving to your point the other way. So I'm guessing we probably see five, five and a half when we get the official, the official numbers from Circa. So probably to stay away from the contest. If you like Detroit, plus six and a half is like minus 122 on Novick right now.

Not bad at all. So, you know, again, that's pretty interesting. If you are a Detroit backer, again, I was kind of hoping to take maybe Buffalo. I think Detroit is probably the right side as we get closer to seven. but I don't know, might just be a stayway. Yeah, I think stay away for me. The other really good game on the Saturday slate, Cincy at Houston, so Houston gets a little bit of redemption.

We're looking at like a 46-5, 47-and-a-half total. So shot that around if you have a preference. We're moving a little bit towards the, you know, to the Cincinnati side. Kind of three for the most part, but, you know, shopping around as well. Any thoughts here of, you know, Sintzzi team that, I think looked pretty good defensively. I think they did a good job. Another team that did a really good job past protecting against, I think, a pretty solid

buccaneers front. You know, they kept Burrough clean, you know, quiet day from Chase. They obviously took advantage of a bunch of key turnovers there, which made a little bit of a noisy situation. Bad, sloppy baker all over the field. Thoughts on Sinty and Houston. Yeah, it's kind of a game that I almost throw out because, like, the bagels just didn't really have to throw.

They didn't really have to do a whole lot. Small field. They got that weird turnover early. before we knew it they were up like 143 scored one more touchdown you know it's just like really tough to come back from but yeah their defense did play better to your point talking about that preseason of the potential them being okay and i think that that's what they were right they were okay that's you know all you need from a bengal team there and the texans on the other hand i thought played a really encouraging game i don't know what did you think about was it the bills

being good their running game being good was it joe brady in his bag was it the texans defense not being as good as we thought because, I mean, they were fairly porous from time to time, you know, and that kind of surprised me, to be honest. I would say, and I don't have the numbers in front of me, last year with the Texas defense, and for the most part, they're running it back. And we know, like, year over your, your defensive stuff is not super sticky at a team level, but when you're running back like the same group of guys, I feel like it's pretty sticky. Even though last year they were awesome, you could hit them with some explosives.

And I think that's really what happened in this game against Buffalo. So the combination of like Buffalo playing really good ball and hitting explosives at a pretty high rate. Now, again, that's something that a good version of the Bengals can do as well is hit explosives at a pretty good rate. But if you have to like just sustain drives, dink and dunk, you know, Houston's not going to let you grind down these 12 plate drives very often. That's not really the thing. So again, maybe that makes Cincinnati a pretty good matchup again because they can, you know, be, they have more upside with the explosives than they showed last week too. So for the most part, I think it's still an elite defense.

And we should probably chalk it up to a single week of variance. So two and a half of the Texans or are you on Bengals plus three? I would like two and a half on the Texan side. And I think Bengals would be, you know, three, three and a half would be the right side. So we have to kind of see where the number falls. Because I think that matters a lot, right? For sure. Hedge.

Not something that I would think it would be on my short list. like i don't think i'm going to cape up hard for either side if that makes sense kind of wait and see um and the total feels i mean same thing total where it's in now at 46 and a half feels a little bit light but i think i would lean under if we got a little bit bigger so kind of a kind of a wait and see there too um this is an interesting you know week two reaction what do we do a green bay and the jets obviously the jets impressed i think that you know who they play matters quite a bit, but the market sentiment is very strong with the Jets right now.

Green Bay folded a little bit late in that game, just the relentless nature of what Minnesota and Brian Flores can do from a pass-her standpoint, the blitzing standpoint was pretty remarkable. But, you know, seeing Green Bay three and a half on the road, you know, 44 and a half on the total side, what are your thoughts here on Packers Jets? Yeah, there were five and a half on the 13th on Sunday. day, so not down to three and a half. I think a lot of the concerns we had with the Packers came to fruition, right? Like the offensive lines struggled. The running game was fine with Marshawn Lloyd and Brooks. It wasn't very good. And the passing game was super efficient,

but when it mattered most, like Jordan Love and Matt Lafleur just made a ton of mistakes, right? Like it was it was interception, it was turnover on downs. Like you couldn't get like the enough push there. It was just like a bunch of really key mistakes that felt like they were. It was a were basically, you know, it felt like them handing the game to Minnesota in the last minute there. I mean, they were up by eight points or whatever with, with, with in the fourth quarter and then ended up losing by, whatever, 20 or something like that. So it's, it was a game that flipped incredibly quickly and a lot of it was Jordan Los Fault. And this is, I mean, we've seen it happen multiple times against the bears. Like this is. Yeah. You need to get first downs. You need to sustain the game. You

find a way to make it happen. And somehow the Packers, the last two years have just not been good at that at all. Like it's just been one of their biggest weaknesses, it seems like. And so we saw it happened here against the Vikings team that defensively looked okay in the first and then really tightened up, obviously with the big plays at the end. And then offensively, obviously, you lose Kyler and it's just kind of a disaster. So for this, this Jets matchup, though, like, do you think that the Jets pass or not showed enough juice to give Jordan Love problems? Yeah. But again, it's like, I think so, like mostly based on my pride. more so than like what I saw against Tennessee because I think the match of context is is really

important there. Tennessee's I think we thought they were bad. Again, it was another one of those teamers. It was like we we did the preview in the south. I think we were both down on them. And then like just the drumbeat all preseason was like it just got worse. Like it just everything made it feel like it was not trending that well. So I'm a little reluctant to give the Jets as much credit. I kind of like Green Bay, but it's not something that I love here. I kind of like the nature of like a Packers team that can't run the football

that has to like lean on Jordan Love and a condensed target tree with some like explosive play playmakers against the Jet secondary. That's now without Micah Fitzpatrick. I still think has kind of a below average cornerback room. Like I think Green Bay's explosive upside. here is pretty massive. Yeah, I mean, they can tread the Jets for a lot of. Jets also have a couple of injuries, right?

Defensively, I think that they got banged up. Yeah, Mink is out for, you know, extended period of time. And that matters. The back is going to play deep for them. So that's important. I think their safety room is going to be depleted without him. So we're not going to see three here, will we? I mean, this is, well, I mean, again, there's bookmakers at three right now.

I would like Green Bay at three. I would definitely agree with that. I'm into that. I'm just kind of fading some of the jets after a good week against, again, the Titans. Yeah. This next one is suspiciously low. I think part of it is because they didn't look great. Like you mentioned, they play with their food late.

But Philly on the road in Tennessee, Philly minus seven, 39.5, 40.5 point totals. You shove that around. Tennessee is atrocious. I think they're going to really struggle with protecting Cam Ward here, even without like Jonathan Granard. I think they're going to be able to generate a ton of pressure up middle. I still have enough, you know, in the edge group room to get it done here. I worry about like Tennessee being able to get pressure also through the middle internally

with what they have there against the Philly team that their offensive line look poor and now had an injury and, you know, that impacts things there as well. But yeah, I don't know. Do we get six and a half here? I think if he hits that, it probably bounces right back pretty quickly. Yeah, I mean, that's the problem, right? Is like this Philly offensive line looked awful. Lannon Dickerson now is done for a little bit as well.

Like they were not getting any push. And Sequin Barclay's yard before contact was non-existent, just like it was last year, the same exact problem. We kind of thought that they were a little bit healthier, maybe a new scheme. It would all kind of balance out here. Jalen Hertz had no time. Seekwana had no space. And if that's happening, I'm not betting eagles.

like I just jalen hurts is not good enough to overcome that the scheme did not look good enough to overcome that this the commanders are fine like they're there they're i don't i'm not buying that there's some elite pass rush or like great defense and they looked really good and the eagles's office looked really bad so i'm worried i mean i'm i you know i agree with you that the titans are bad but i like i don't know if i want to lay seven with a team that just might not might just be okay you know offensively and defensively they're going to give the titans all worlds of problems i mean they're going to, you know, the Titans are going to be in a real tough spot. Some of our, you know, analysts are already suggesting some, some unders there.

And I think that's going to be a place where I'm going to be looking for sure. Yeah, that's probably the best play. Yeah. I mean, Jeffrey Simmons is good enough to like, to your point, Jalen Hertz isn't good enough to overcome this. And Jeffrey Simmons is good enough to like just ruin this day. Like, right. He's just, he's collapsing the pocket.

He's like just barreling back into the back field and giving Sequin no room to operate. Sequin was very much non-involved in the passing game, which I don't know if the one-week blimp or what happens there. So kind of with you, like, it's like, yeah, they're probably an interesting teaser like because I think Philly goes in and wins this game, but I wouldn't want to be holding the seven. And like even though like Tennessee, you know, fewer than four yards per play, it's tough to do.

Against the Jets. It's tough to do. Yeah. So maybe some sack bets, you know, Felix Hunt, Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter, Jefferson. Maybe there's some ways in this game. It's just like we bet on cumulative game sacks. I know we'll be able to maybe bet some team sacks up hopefully, but maybe cumulative, you know, over six and a half game sacks or something crazy like that

because I think there's a lot of that in this one. That's fun. I like that one. All right. Pittsburgh's on the road in New England. We did this last year. This was one of the more annoying New England. games of the year like just absolutely dominated this game uh i think like they're you know if

you did like net EPA and uh you know yards and all that stuff like the expected points like the patriot the boat race them but i think five turnovers um there you know fumbles inside the multiple like inside the red zone turnovers here and uh that one hurt quite a bit so looking at about four and a half on the new england side and again total's kind of around 41 and a half 42 and a half Pittsburgh also was not very impressive at all in a tough spot. Their defense was good. We expected their defense to be good. Hard to kind of measure how good it is because, again,

the Falcons rolled out was tough, but we expect Pittsburgh's defense to be good. And they were. But run the football. Like so many, 10.6 pass rate over expectation, 40 attempts in a game. They kind of controlled throughout.

Like, just put the ball in the belly of your running backs. It was very, very frustrating to watch. but thoughts on uh pittsburgh new england yeah but does that change here like i don't think so yeah you think so or you say you don't no i don't think they want to throw the football a bunch i mean i think it's just going to be what we saw from mccarthy rogers when they previously worked together like they're just like nothing's changed they're just going to throw the ball a ton and do whatever they want you know like and rogers now is full control to do exactly that and he's going to want to live and die by his own hand which i think is what frustrated him all last year so

I think they're going to be chucking the ball a ton. And I think that that's maybe, I mean, they're not going to say good against the Patriots, but the Patriots run defense looked okay against the Seahawks. I think that they're a lot better than that. Seahawks obviously gave them a ton of problems in the Super Bowl too for a defense run events last year that was a top three unit in the league, if not better, you know, top two or maybe even the best from time to time. So, yeah, I would expect the Patriots to give them a lot of problems on the ground here.

now a little worried about the Patriots offense especially without AJ Brown maybe that was more of a symptom of Seahawks being awesome I think that he's just rig really important they looked like kind of lost broken and I'm not sure that this is like a perfect bounce back spot for that to kind of just be fixed immediately in week one so for me it's probably stay away lean paths if anything but um yeah probably probably stay away I don't know are you buying the dip here yeah I want to go to England on this one um I just I think that they probably were game planning specifically and it was a bad game plan like we're like super conservative especially really conservative on early downs it just felt like they weren't prepared to like what does a non a j brown offense look like and you would think hey we got a lot of reps with that and it did look like a lot of mac hollins late in the game which is not a great spot you want to be in but like it was okay last year at times you know so i think under is probably the best like general bet in this game especially if you can get under 42 and a half.

But like, I don't know. Christian Gonzalez puts whoever he's on in a blunder in this one. It was awesome again in week one. I just, I worry about Pittsburgh leaning on pass heavy and trying to put enough points to keep this one close. So I don't know. I lean Patriots again. I'm not going to cave up super hard if we could find five others that we like,

but I definitely think this is a nice little by the dip on New England. Pittsburgh are the worst offense in the league. by EPA in week one against a defense that correct we don't think it's going to be very good I mean there no the line is not good at all right no the secondary is okay you can make the same case as new england but also new england's fronts better so uh yeah I don't I don't feel particularly strong about anything we saw for Pittsburgh which is uh frustrating with some some Pittsburgh futures and stuff but um I would leave new England here at four and a half so all right uh

Saints and Ravens is about where are we at? See if this one's moved at all with my stale number. So there's still eight and a half. Total come down a little bit. Some underaction here. Gone for 48 and a half down like 46 and a half. A ton of volume obviously in the Saints game. Baltimore looked really good.

It felt like, oh yeah, Lamar Jackson when he's healthy is a pretty dynamic weapon. And because what happens there when you have to account for healthy Lamar is Henry, it just operates in a totally different stratosphere. And that's what the Colts got, a big dose of there. New Orleans was kind of unimpressive for most of that game and then turn it on late. Many thoughts here at the eight and a half? It's a big number. Big number.

But man, Declan Doyle, I thought. I mean, he might be like the next. Like after one game, I'm like, holy crap. Like there were just guys running wide open all the time. The plays were awesome. Derek Henry had big lanes to run. Maybe that was a symptom of the Colts defense not being that good. Again, we think that they were going to be at least okay.

So it just looked so easy for them, like basically all the time. So I don't know. I was really impressed with his coaching. And maybe the Ben Johnson tree is starting to branch out early here. Because, yeah, it was just one of those things that you see, I felt like when we saw Ben Johnson. And you're like, okay, there's just dudes running wide open all the time. I don't know how that's possible, but just is what it is. So even without Zay Flowers, they were still just, you know, destroying.

It's worth for five and a buck 50 in the first half. I'll get it done. Do we know, do we have any, I know it's Wednesday, so we're getting like early Wednesday reports. I'm guessing Zay Flowers probably doesn't practice today. We don't know. I don't think his status yet per se, but the ability to run those like mesh dig crossers on play action with Zay Flowers, it just, again, that target tree is pretty narrow, but like who's going to get it done in Baltimore from like a prop standpoint?

I think a pretty narrow tree, but it's a pretty deep. dynamic little like threesome there which was kind of tough so um the goby lane uh as well oh yeah yeah that one's tough what was i think frustrating for any like pro saint stuff is i don't think very highly of like the lion's pass rush we got five sacks and they got almost a 40% pressure rate which is something that baltimore is going to be able to to mimic i think probably pretty easily here now again eight and a half is it's kind of a it's a long jump to make there though Yeah, I think good teaser leg on the Ravens. Again, the Saints were not even in that game for a while.

And just last minute efforts here to get there at all. So tend to think that the Ravens that I've won't know if I love laying eight and a half, but I think that they're the right side here, to be honest. I agree. Another spot I don't love laying it, but I will make the case to lay Tampa Bay. Eight and a half. I'm ready to lay it. All right.

We're laying it. Sold. that's that's it talk to me about why you basically this is a Cleveland fate I'm guessing just appropriate yeah you can you can do the intro first but I wanted to be like don't be scared here well I'm in with you there they were terrible um yeah inefficient slow uh it was probably worse aesthetically than I think we even thought um yeah Tampa Bay again and it's also like a buy buy back spot I think on Tampa Bay because again like they weren't particularly impressive but a lot of the baker stuff was just like it was just sloppy you know running with the

ball out here and you know fumbles and uh you know inside the red zone like they're driving and it just kind of killed that the momentum of that game um so i kind of want to buy back on Tampa bay and want to continue to find ways to to short the browns and was especially probably all season but especially with Deshaun Watson under center yeah um they specifically too like the browns last week their Offensive line graded all really well, according to PFF. The receivers all were like top 10 in separation score, and Deshawn Watson still was complete and utter garbage. I mean, it just couldn't be more of an indictment on how bad he is, right? And I think it was, who was it, Cleve T.A.

had a really good stat. It was that Jacksonville barely blitzed Watson yesterday. Watson on Sunday. He finished dead last and completion percentage over expected, took two sacks, scramble three times and threw an interception. Todd Bowles is going to blitz him like crazy. Just blitz his face off. And so this is going to be just a slaughter on defense unless Deshaun Watson magically figures out of play football here quickly.

I don't know if there's like turnover like interception props, fumble props, whatever we can get on Watson. He's going to cough it up at one point or another. So I would be pretty surprised if the Browns come away with his unscathed. Again, like the game was over at halftime last year. Like this is not even, and we don't even think that highly of the Jags defense. Like they're okay, right? I mean, like they're a fine unit. And again, I don't think the, the, the bucks or some necessarily elite unit, but they cause

problems for good teams, you know, and they, they certainly are going to cause a lot of problems for a bad team like the Browns here. So, I mean, there's reasonable chances that, again, the Brown score less than a touchdown and that the Bucks score more on defense than the Browns score on offense. Yeah. Brown's team total under. It's, you know, we're never going to catch a 17 and a half, which would be a lovely love taking bad team under 17 and a half.

But, you know, under 14, under 14 and a half. I know it's probably a hot take. Probably last year's stats wouldn't bear it out. But I think Tampa Bay's defense is better than Jacksonville's numbers. Defense, I think a lot of the Jacksonville stuff was was turnover related last year. I think some of the upgrades on Tampa this year make them better. Yeah, I would expect. I'd expect this to be uncomfortable laying it.

So kind of, you know, the one that you look at, I'm like, I think we'll lock in Tampa Bay. I thought you'd probably be on board. That's one of my favorites. And I mean, can I interest you in another big favorite as well? The San Francisco 49ers against Miami Dolphins. Like, again, we just saw them lose by 14 to the Raiders, one of the worst teams in league. I was really impressed with the 49ers overall. I thought that they played really well.

their defense played better than we've seen them play in a long time. Their offensive line was good. You know, Caitlin Black was, you know, running for a couple yards in a cloud of dust every time, but hitting the holes well, and they didn't even have to use CMC that much. Stribbling died in the passing game was still functioning. Again, I don't know. Maybe it was jet lag or whatever for the Rams, but I think regardless. Like, that's a really good team, and that's the team that they thoroughly handled,

I would say, offensively, and looked pretty good. So, I don't know. And this is with like George Kittle playing half the snaps, basically, 44% of the snaps actually, I think it's the final number. So I expect him to play more. And they still have plenty of options. So I think that we're looking at the Niners dropping 30 plus on Miami here. And so again, that's a lot of points that Miami has to score.

And as you talked about it, when Miami gets down and they're seeing Malik Willis throw the ball and did have to come back, like he's literally never done that in his NFL career. He's never been good at that. Whenever they do that, it's always a mess. he's missing guys, he's throwing picks. Like, it's just not, it's not where his skill set lies. So I think this is like a big problem where we could, I mean, then I just could be winning by 7 to 10 the whole game and ended up winning by 20 easily in the end just because Miami's trying to play catch up.

It's, yeah, it's bad. I mean, they allowed like a 60% pressure rate. 60. 59.5% pressure rate allowed. What? Yeah. That's outrageous. rough um really really really really really rough um yeah it's a big number it's probably you're probably

best uh historically just blindly taking 13 points um and i bet people take miami just out of the principal like double yeah double digits like um but like and like san francisco is not even a great pressure unit uh but it's good enough here and it also had on the other side Miami which we kind of expected they had the fewest pressures in the league in week one against the raiders offensive line that we don't think very much of to begin with it's improved but like you know Miami can't generate pressure so you're going to have a clean Brock Purdy kind of cook and doing whatever he wants it's just a lot of I will say there's a lot of young and again this is not a Jacob Rodriguez only take there's a lot of young talent that's exciting on Miami's defense there's just a lot of young

guys on Miami's defense just don't have any reps that are going to be just not ready for hand offense. So you can sell me on a San Fran minus 13, just because I think that the, the, you know, path to 31, 31, 32, 35 points for San Francisco is, is pretty clean. I mean, the implied total, I guess, right now, if you're betting a team total, is right right around 29 and a half. So it's already kind of baked in. Yeah, I mean, it's not, it's not more, right? Like, we saw a ton of offense in week one. This is just another spot where like, San Francisco's offense is probably a fringe top, you know, in the five to ten range somewhere in the rankings.

And the Raiders' office is probably like in the 20s, you know, like low 20s, I would say. And like, you know, this is just such a big step up. And you just saw the Raiders drop 27 on them like it was nothing. So, yeah, it's tough with no receivers. I mean, just literally it's just a bunch of bums out there. Yeah. They barely passed the ball.

Like they didn't rain it. And like there was fine. Yeah, I think we're to be able to go at, the Miami perimeter corners for as long as they will allow us to. It did just have to worry about game scripts getting out of whack because like Mike Evans probably does whatever he wants here in this game, you know. The tough ones. You could sell me, you can sell me on that for sure?

Can I still you on another bounce back spot that maybe you're interested in? Let's hear it. They killed us on Monday night, but I like Denver. You're buying you're going back to it. Okay. So my concern is that I thought. the Davis Webb called an atrocious game offensively. You did.

Like I don't like I again, I think all the roster pieces that we've made the case for throughout everything. It still exists like their defense, passing defense was awesome. Like they, you know, Moehm's can do anything. I don't know if that was symptom of Moehm's looking terrible or vice versa.

But I think Denver defense is really good. He couldn't stop the run all that well, which is somewhat concerning. Slash Kenneth Walker just, you know, made them their, their first point, his first one child.

And then their offense, God, he couldn't get over it. It was like third and one empty. Like, you know, just he gets walked back or they blitz him. And he's like un- un-medic blitzer. And then it'll be like second in 11 or second 12. And they have like a run play in the middle. And they get like three yards. You know, it's just, it was just really tough.

You can see Sean Payton just like grinding his teeth on the sideline every time they hand over to him. He looked pissed. It was just a really poorly called game. So that's my only concern. but I'm, you know, I'm open to still taking them again because I do think two and a half is a little bit like at home, right? I think we know that, though. So we saw it. And so Sean's definitely, you know, those meetings are going a little bit longer this week.

They're talking through it a little bit more to get a little bit of clarity. 3.3 averaged up to target for Bonix. He took four sacks. It was just like, I think it was, again, I didn't look. I'd imagine he didn't take four sacks in the game at any point last year. And like, mistackles. are a little bit noisy. It's a really good tackling unit overall.

They did not tackle well clearly against Kenneth Walker, who also I think is, I think we all think is really good and kind of deserves a bell cow role and is taking it and running with it literally. So I think that they bounce back. Again, I also want to continue a little bit of anchoring to preseason stuff and fade a little bit of the Jacksonville stuff.

Again, just the market sentiment of them, boat racing Cleveland in week one feels overreactive. So my hope was this would kind of fall under three. I didn't think it would fall too much. But again, the two and a half, I think, is still something that we can get the two and a half with the circuit release, I think is the right spot. So there's just too many things that went poorly for Denver that I just don't believe that being sustainable. I also think Spags is kind of in his bag there too. Like just like, just the way that he was pressuring Bow Nix and like the way that where guys were coming from and everything was kind of like vintage playoff chiefs felt like.

So I don't fully blame them. but just there was a bunch of different factors there that I think were really, really bad. So that was a little, my only, you know, scaring point there. But again, factored in the number. Yeah, that was a good call. I mean, I thought Kansas City game plan was awesome. So, yeah, I like the Denver side. If we can get a two and a half and that, when that kind of pops.

One of the games I'm most interested to watch overall, I don't know that I have a millions take for it unless you have a big one. But Minnesota, Chicago should be theater. you know, depending on what we get at the quarterback situation, that's a big if with Carson Winston and Kyler. But the Bears at what, we at five and a half or so, four and a half a little bit, moves. And a 48.5 point total. Just when the Bears of the football,

that's just going to be such an entertaining watch in terms of, you know, what does floors want to do? How does Kyler legs get involved? Because it was such a bizarre game. Obviously, when you score, you know almost 60 points eight yards per play um but on like a 44% pass rate which is just such a weird dynamic too uh they just they ran a ton and you know again like air ball from coast and level and it was such a weird week uh in that game but uh you know Minnesota was I think who we thought

they were and they're just tough to play now again in the division you're a little bit more familiar and how to game plan for that you kind of know what floors is going to do and early in the game I think the point you made at the top was just like It looked like it was not working, but he just doesn't give a shit. He's just going to keep doing it and bringing it. And like, yeah, you're going to get some busted plays. And Chicago will have some probably big explosives here again. But like over the course of the game, can we win without pressure rate?

So I can't wait to watch it. But do you have any thoughts on how to handicap it? I think that I want to keep betting on the bears until they let us down at this point. So I don't know. It's one of those things where it just looked. different like Caleb was doing a lot of the little things a lot better and that was the most impressive to me like he was taking the more the four-yard scrambles instead of throwing the ball across his body 30 yards down field on second and Nate you know what I mean like yeah he was just doing

a lot of he was completing the seven-eight-yard passes that were gimmies basically like a lot of that stuff was just way better again maybe it's partially because you're playing the panthers I fully recognize that but I mean even last year times against bad teams he wasn't doing a lot of that stuff and so I think that was exactly we talked about the off season and I don't want to understand this because like I think this is a team again that can just score gobs of points consistently. And like I know the Packers lost in crazy fashion, but they could have easily scored 30 plus on the Vikings here. Jordan Love through like 400 yards.

You know, like there was plenty of efficient passing and like you mentioned, broken plays and things going around here. I would anticipate that now in, I don't know, I mean, this is the third time against Ben Johnson, his head coach has played against Flores, but obviously more times of Detroit as well, that I would bet that he's probably pretty. ready for like what needs to happen here and a certain game plans there. So yeah, like I think that the Bears defense is really bad. I'm worried now at this point as well.

But I think that the Vikings offense might also be really bad without Jordan Mason who just fractured his finger. It looks like it's going to be out. And now with just Aaron Jones and probably Carson Wentz, I would say more likely than not, even if it is Kyle Murray, Caller Murray played one drive or two drives and looked terrible. So I don't think that's that big of a deal. and like, you know, I can't imagine that being that much better than Bryce Young, even best case.

So, I don't know. Again, this seems like another spot where the Bears could drop a big number and might just be a team to keep tailing for a while at four and a half at home against potentially a backup quarterback. Like, I don't know. That's what I was going to ask you. Do you think this is a Wentz number or a Kyler number? Or does that even matter? I think it's kind of like a point or two at this point. Yeah.

Yeah. after what we saw like yeah i'm with you i'm only going to go down with the ship with chicago um i definitely like you know if you can get if you should be able to get uh let's move a little bit i was saying maybe you can get some over 26 and a half team total for the bears like yeah that's appealing um you know maybe chase that on some alts but uh i'm interested in chicago especially like you said four and a half uh we've moved down a little bit which again i think maybe we get some bounce back depending on just again the market will react when we get an announcement at quarterback so Again, that won't impact, you know, what we're doing at circuit per se, because that line will be held.

But I'm in a Chicago. I'm okay just saying like, hey, this could be a outlier offense. And like, look, you highlighted it. Jalen Johnson's supposed to be, you know, the one answer in a secondary full of questions. He was the closest defender on eight catches, eight targets, 131 yards. So you played really poorly. So again, like Justin Jefferson probably cooks, regardless of what happens in the game, Justin Jefferson probably cooks, regardless who's a quarterback.

I'm going with the Bears. So it seems we got three there, three or four. Yeah, three or four. Obviously, we're tracking line movement here to see, figure out some of those. Maybe we get some good, I don't know, easier CLV plays by the end of the week. I don't have too much, too many other takes, you know, so most of the other games. I don't know if you have any other ones you wanted to talk about real quick. No, I think there's probably what I would expect.

And I didn't think it reacted as much as I thought we would get a market reaction on the Giants and Rams. And it seems like it's kind of corrected just because I thought, you know, we get both teams and island games. And, you know, they went very different ways with one flopping and one really, I think, exceeding expectations. I thought we'd get, you know, maybe the Giants are, you know, the Rams would be like six or six and a half. and I think we're, you know, moving more to, you know, seven, seven and a half even. So that's, that makes that a little bit tougher. How about your Colts in Kansas City? Kansas City was super impressive.

Six and a half, I think, is, is interesting, but I don't know. Well, I'm worried about my home. First off, just didn't look right. It was missing. He was just straight up missing. He wasn't good. And again, it makes sense. He came back months earlier than he should have.

That's just like where he's at right now. They ran the ball a ton. So it's basically can the Indy defend the run? And his spag is going to dial up what he did against Denver because he does. Daniel Jones is going to be in mega trouble. And it's exactly what we saw against the Ravens. He's just constantly under pressure. Nothing's going well.

Like guys just aren't open. He's got a ball immediately. It's just a disaster. So I'm worried about that for sure. Like I think the way that Indy can come close or win this game is just like if they can stop the run and force Mahomes to throw, which sounds crazy to say. But Rishi Rice was awful. One of the worst yards for separation.

in the league. Kelsey, I mean, he had that 160-yard run, but he was butt-naked wide open. I mean, just literally no one was there. So for me, it's a stay away, but, you know, I don't know, because, like, I think Kenneth Walker could do exactly what he did against Denver to Indy. Just like we just saw Derek Henry do. Yes. You know, so that's the, like, what do you think, Kevin Walker's props going to be this week, like 80?

Like, it's going to be super high. It should be super high. I bet you that there's like an early number somewhere. Yeah, let me see where I am at for him too. This is probably a big number. I bet I'm over it. 79 and a half. Yeah, we're seeing pretty widely available.

Yeah, okay. Yeah, I'm at like... Yeah, 88 and a half. Yeah, it's tough to envision a way where he doesn't see, like, I don't know, 20 carries again and I got a just a touch over 21 carries you know tough uh yeah I mean

Dallas was super unimpressive I don't know what to make of that one the Seattle Arizona line feels like a overreaction at four and a half or so but um again drew lock probably there um and yeah I don't know Seattle is interesting to me at four and a half

um but I don't know what to make of the Arizona because it's just the thing we want to get, want to get ahead of, or is Arizona going to just, that was a little one week blimp and they fall back? I feel like four and a half is shorter than I was expecting. Yeah, a little shorter. Obviously, they won, so that, you know, helps a lot. We talked about it. They're not really that bad of a team plenty of times, you know, this whole off season. They're going to win two games. They already won a random game. So I think that, like, I don't know,

they're a scary team to fade on a week's week basis because things are going to look really close. they got a couple of weapons and they're going to who knows maybe their new offensive system is good like that's also possible is you have a new coach maybe that can overcome a couple of you know weaknesses here and they end up being i don't know they win five or six games that's possible uh i don't think that that that's crazy at all after what we saw in week one yeah and they probably are more efficient offensively with more jeremiah love which probably happens all the course of the next month or so right he was you know and the cfs have a backup quarterback like do you really want to be no sporting drew lock probably not like on the road

with this you know second game of a coordinator that we're not super sure of what to expect there either it's a little it's a little tricky so yeah it's like 41 and a half i think it's pretty yeah 42 and a half 40 under no i'm sorry i'm on the wrong game um yeah 41 and a half 40 and a half yeah 41 and a half yeah it's probably the right side so all right so us out we got a couple of locks for sure so um appreciate it everyone hanging out as always move line wherever you listen to podcast move the line on youtube as well if you want to get all the official plays and all the things that we do particularly in the prop side which is where most of our action comes you want to get a four for four fours subscription four dot com slash plans you can use promo code uh connor 25 noon in 25 i get you 25% off any of the subscriptions there uh yeah check it out to where you want to be want to get the discord get the betting picks um lots of discounts so again 4 4.com slash plans.

I appreciate everyone hanging out as always. Come back on Friday. Again, 3 p.m. Eastern for Prop Drop Show, myself, Connor, and High Slop for our prop discussion. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.