Move The Line - Best NFL Week 3 Bets: Sides, Totals & Team Props

Episode Date: September 23, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 3 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers offer value before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack, Ryan Noon, joined here as always by Connor Allen. Week three coming up with a three and two, circa millions week. Not bad. Five and five on the year, ready to get after it here for week three. Connor, what's going on? How are we doing? Yeah, I'm doing well.

It was a pretty, another good week that felt like it could have been even better. And kind of same with the last week. You know, it had some weird turns there at the end. But the Panthers call felt very good. throughout the game. The Niners call felt very good throughout the game. There might be a common theme there throughout the season. But also the Bengals call that you had there, you know, which we'll get into, you know,

maybe the defense is better. Maybe the defense is a little bit better. And if that's the case, like we talked about in preseason, you know, it's wheels up for this team. And they might still be undervalued in the market. Yeah, I think that was a good one. I just more I kind of stepped away. I think I like the Patriots on the show and then the injury report was, I think,

not great. And then we backed off of that one, which was. which is frustrating. I was not super interested in the Panthers, but I think you did a good job selling me on that one, and that one landed pretty easily. It felt like the right pick. And that might be similar to the Miami thing

where it's like, maybe we just need to find ways to go after the Panthers or the Falcons. Maybe it gets better on Thursday night with Michael Pennix back, but probably not awful. Again, I wanted to let people know, like you tell everyone, Connor, like we have some new things going on at Sharpstack

because it's a super cheap deal right now to get Sharpstack. and picks. So getting all the 4-4-4 stuff because picks includes all that. It gets you all the access to the things that Connor and I do. And then Sharpstack as well, like $9. And we just launched a few new things on the Sharpstack style if you want to tell people about it. Yeah, Code TD3 gets you one month of picks plus Sharpstack for $9, which is crazy deal.

But the prop screen and the odd screen is just getting awesome, right? So you click a player's prop on draft kings. You can see the full line history, when the line moves were. you can see a little chart alongside of it. Then now you can see alt odds as well. So you can see like Michael Pennix passing yards. You can see what the price is on 205, 210, 220. And then what we recently expanded today was you can now compare

alts across all the different books and all the different props for each player. So if you click on go to Michael Pennix's name, you can see his rushing yards and alts across different books. You can see his passing yards all in one spot. So we're trying to find the best way to visualize it. And like obviously we had the data. weren't sure. The screen is already very busy as is. And so now we wanted to make sure that people knew what we're getting what they wanted when they clicked on something. So I think the user

experience is really good there. And we're making it better. Again, literally adding two to three different updates. I mean, every day, basically. It seems like it seems like and multiple once a week. So it's awesome. It's a sick tool and keeps getting better. Connor said TD3, nine bucks. I just feel like that we just announced that. I feel like we were consulted on that one. That's a really good deal. So please take advantage. Let us know if you have any specific questions out of take advantage of that or just hit us up specifically and we can kind of help you walk through that. So all right, week three, you say week one is a liar. And week two, supposed to be the answers. It's still really early in the season and you can, you know,

think you know a lot about a team. And then it turns out, you know, their strength of schedule is harder than you thought. The teams you played, you know, they played were easier than you thought. You just never really know. It's so hard to kind of do this. It's just kind of constantly a moving target. But a lot of questions heading into week three in terms of maybe some quarterback discussions. There's a lot of injuries, especially on the offensive side of the board in week two.

So some of that's still kind of hanging out as we record here on a Monday afternoon, still waiting for that like first real practice report across the board for everyone. But we got the Thursday. Like I said, we got Pennix back. They are on the road in Green Bay. That's moved from six to five. in a lot of spots. Total is still sitting around 43, 40, 40, 43 and a half, ish.

Any thoughts on, you know, some injuries on the Green Bay side, too? Is this one that's, we're going to make a push for a Thursday game this week? Or are we just going to let this one fly by? No, I think normally I'd be interested in, again, fading the Falcons here. But when you panic starting, who's, I wouldn't say he's shown an ability to really do much or anything at the NFL level, but he's certainly better than an injured Cooper Rush or Jack Strand. So, you know, multiple points better there. And on the Packer's side, Jaden Reed goes down with an injury last week.

Then other offensive line, which was already bad. Their best offense of the lineman is now out for an extended period of time. They were struggling in the running game. They brought in Caleb Johnson, who now is going to be the starting running back until Josh Jacobs comes back with Marshaun Lloyd is kind of the number two. I think he had a fumble at one point and then was benched essentially right thereafter. I wouldn't even be surprised to see him just relegated to third duties. They don't really care about this guy at all.

He's done basically nothing but get injured and be. okay at the pro level. So he's certainly a fantasy Twitter darling that I don't think we'll get the same respect in the league from the coaches. So yeah, I'm worried about the backers. Like, if Falcons came out here and won out right, I wouldn't be all that surprised. I mean, with Pennix. If he plays okay, I think that's totally possible. Their defense still sucks, but it's in the range of outcomes. It does. And it's beat up too. That's the problem on the falcon side. A. Case for them without AJ Terrell, who's probably out here with a groin injury, makes it a little bit tougher.

Brother Avion Terrell also dinked up a little bit too. So they're just, that's my only issue here is that kind of what the Packers can still do pretty well probably is take advantage of like some deep passing stuff. And it's a softer matchup considering what's going on on the Falcon side. So kind of a stayaway. I feel like some of the openers on like Christian Watson were a little too light. Maybe they still are. Maybe that's a prop show discussion. But he's been he's been awesome.

And again, yeah, it's a little bit less of a dynamic passing offense without Jaden Reed, but it's kind of more of a narrow target tree. Like, such an opposite of what this was in years past where they had too many guys. And very few guys rotating, too many guys rotating in for a small piece of the pie. Now the pie's growing and there's fewer guys trying to get in on it. So, you know, some alts maybe on a Christian Watson area. The Tucker Kraft bit is hilarious that he has to play offensive line. That's so good.

I mean, just poor guy. Like it makes sense. Like sometimes you just got no one out there that's even like good. And so you just got to hop in there and he's got to at least be like chipping or like maybe stay in the block and just like kind of max protect a little bit more just to get give him any time. Chargers are a disaster. They're on the road against Buffalo, which looks like a buzzsaw. This is about seven points for the most part.

Totals a little high, 50 and a half here. It's giving, I think, a little credit to the charge. offense kind of hanging here? I'm not sure that that's the case, though. They haven't shown us a lot that would make us think that that's happening. They're also dealing with cluster injuries cluster fuck offensively. What do you think about this one? This one's kind of catching my eye a little bit.

Yeah, I feel like I couldn't have been more wrong on the Chargers. I was pretty optimistic. I think heading to the season that Mike McDaniel would figure things out. It looks like a complete disaster. Hampton isn't getting going. Herbert isn't working with Quinn Johnston and Trey, Tray Harris out there. Mokonki's obviously banged up. And I think that's a big deal too.

Both are tight ends, starting tight ends are injured. We might see more Gadsden, which I think we might see a lot of them, which is great. But again, the offense isn't functioning, the defense isn't playing all that well either. So again, like you mentioned, Buffalo has just been scoring gobs of points. This feels like another one. If we get a seven on the Circa, I'm really interested there. Seven and a half even maybe, to be honest, because like no one's going to pick it and they can easily win by two touchdowns here. Yeah, the defense too.

I think that was one of the things. I had questions, but there was a coaching change there too, and I feel like maybe we need to give more credit to that, and that's kind of folded in on itself here early on the Chargers side. And then that gets magnified when the offense is turning the ball over, can't sustain the drives, can't protect. It's kind of a disaster. I'm with you.

I lean a Buffalo pretty strongly here. That would be one that I would like to, you know, see if we can have it break our way when the circuit numbers come out too. Are we going back to Carolina on the road again? back-to-back weeks this time it's in Cleveland uh you think so i mean i i'm interested in it i don't know like i'll let you go your spiel first i guess no i don't i don't really have one i mean the only spiel is that i thought you know i think we probably should consider it because we're getting to sean watson again um you know watching that game wasn't like this all revelation

of deshaun watson playing good football i was like support tackling by tampa's just again tampa's shooting themselves in the foot you know for all like the I think flaws that are very obvious on the offensive side here with Deshaun Watson specifically. Like the Cleveland defense is stepped back for sure. It's not an awful defense, though. So that's the thing that's going to keep them in some games. But like I think it's also hard to not be impressed by Carolina. Like their pass rate over expectation stuff is really good.

I got kind of a dynamic duo. It's a little cleaner, I think, with like just Chuba Hubbard and how he's playing. He's playing really well. The offensive lines, you know, worried me a little bit. It was nice last week because like the offensive line issues. Yeah. It's not you can't really take advantage of that. Like the Falcons aren't going to take advantage of that.

Cleveland can take advantage of that a little bit more. But I'm still kind of with you. He's still lean Carolina, which just kind of feels dirty. Yeah. In hindsight, I feel like Todd Munkin, honestly,

just deserves the win last week for the Browns because there were some plays where guys were like the one touched on that random like backup tight end. Guy was just wide open. I mean, like he was like basically like a kind of like a weird little leak play. And he was just wide open on the, the left. Deshawn Watson was getting the ball out really quick because they're blitzing, but it was all like design. Like it wasn't Deshawn Watson being awesome. It was just the ball's getting

out quick because Todd Munkin has the play getting out quick because he planned ahead because you knew it would blitz. Like that's what happened. That's what you knew what happened. And Tampa Bay wasn't good enough to overcome that. And I think that's something that, you know, I miscalculated on the other side. I mean, Baker throwing picks, fumbling, just just everything against shooting himself in the foot. Played so bad. Just awful. It was, it was a disgrace and then it took them losing like on whatever like a random 50 yard touchdown where they're you know like it was just complete complete another disaster he missed ted hurst on that wide open like 50 yard touchdown it was like crazy so i'm fine going back to the well here with the panthers uh like

you mentioned their password over expectation stuff is crazy also bryce young uh has been targeting wider she was furthered on field he's playing better tmac and uh cocker moving around a bunch so like I don't know I mean it's exciting it's going well and I think we keep riding the train here and I think again at home like Watson played certainly played well enough to get another start here but I think

this point on he is at any point like in game benching risk and in game implosion like you know like I don't think the Panthers even is any good but like it's Deshawn Watson and he's that was his best game in literally six years and it wasn't even close actually to be honest yeah yeah I'm I'm with you

Yeah, the pressure rate from Carolina has been pretty surprising. They've been getting a ton of pressure. And again, that could be matchable-related, you know, bears and Falcons, not, like, great offensive line units. But also, like, that's been a struggle for it. Like, we've thought about this. We want to go out this Cleveland offensive line early in the season. So it was a tough matcher for them, too.

And, yeah, all the, like, pretty much any metric for the most part, it's been, like, top 10, top 12 on Carolina on the passing offense. Like, just efficiency, deep ball rate, explosive play rate. It's all kind of cooking for them. So I think if this is less than three, I'll be squarely in with you on the Panthers here. So just crazy. Like, yeah.

There's road favorites, of course. Yeah, why not? We did it last week, so I'm not running back again. For sure. Should we be looking at them in the futures market? Like, should we look at Panthers, like division stuff? Or I don't know. Maybe it's insane to that.

Obviously, one, but like, I can't say that I was like thoroughly impressed the entire game. You know, like they're good, but they weren't good at all in the first half against, or against Detroit for a while. Yeah. And they were okay for most of the game against Baltimore. So I don't know.

Just something to circle back to maybe. Yeah. Detroit again, they are home at this time, six and a half point favorites or so in the market against the Jets. With a 47.5 point team total. Jets hung around obviously. It was kind of a weird game. I don't know.

They fed A.D. Mitchell like he was like prime Jerry Rice in that game, which is very, very frustrating as someone holding Garrett Wilson ticket who still almost got there, but did not. This feels like a nice bounce back spot for Garrett Wilson, that's for sure. But also like, I don't know, this could be a nice spot for Detroit to. What do you thoughts here?

Yeah, I like the over. Over in the game is 47 and a half. Like the lines are going to score 30 by themselves. And I think the Jets have shown enough aptitude offensively to score 20-ish, I think, in this spot. So I would lean Detroit. Again, their defense just blows. And we saw it in week one, right?

Like, if they stall it all offensively, it lets anyone back into the game because the defense is a turnstool. And then week two, you play against a good offense and you give up like 45 points. So it's just tough. You know, it's tough to really do much with that. It's a small sample.

It's early in the season. The Detroit defense is four. forced a three and out on four percent of the series that they faced. Four percent. Is that like one at this point out of like? Yeah. It's, uh, what have they failed? Like 25 series?

I don't know the wrong number. I just have the rate rank. That's, so that's not, that's not great. It's probably one. Yeah, it's just, just tough. Yeah, I think the over is probably the best play. Um, this is a prop angles here that we could attack. Um, not dying.

to lay the six and a half, but it's probably lions or nothing for me. What about this divisional game, Houston and Indy? You know, Indy, it just has to keep coming. Alec Pierce back, now gone. It's been kind of uninspiring football from Daniel Jones. It just doesn't look 100%. It doesn't look like what we saw last year a little bit harder here. And again, the Texas haven't been over impressive either.

And they're not like an offense that should scare anyone without Nico Collins on the field, but what do you think here? Indy getting two and a half at home? Yeah, I think the Texans are going to run the ball like 75 times after throwing the ball way too much last week. And the Colts just not really looking good on defense, unfortunately. I think some of the, just there they've been playing really, really poorly. And like you said, it just hasn't fully clicked for this Colts offense. Like, and Pierce getting injured, I think is a big deal because then you just have, I don't know, two slot guys and Downs and Keenan Allen really the only one's doing anything and Tyler Warren who again is a good tight end but

you can't only run your offense to the middle of the field. So, you know, it's just tough. And then Jonathan Taylor has been basically carrying the team offensively, it seems like, anytime they do something. So, you know, I think if I had to pick a side here, it's probably going to be the Texans, but, and also the under. Again, like I think this is going to be more like a 20 to 13, maybe 17 10 type of game here where we just see like 40 David Montgomery Woody Marks runs sounds sounds exhilarating it's going to be so boring this is a Thursday this is an old school Thursday I can this is like something they put on Thursday yeah especially when you take away like the big play wide receivers on each team it's kind of yeah it's kind of

hear off yeah Pat's and Jags Jags are three point favorites total is around 45 and a half again, the paths won. They won. They didn't play well. I think a lot of that has to do with maybe Pittsburgh more so than anything New England did. Trayvion back had some juice. He looked pretty good. New England survived without Carlton Davis, which I was a little bit nervous about in that matchup considering I thought Pittsburgh would be pretty pass-heavy,

but didn't seem to matter there. Jacksonville showed up, played pretty well in the first half, but I thought Denver would get to him and they did. But I don't know. I'm still just not buying. the Jacksonville defensive stuff, but I want to give credit to Liam Cohen and this offense

I do think is, I don't know, I think he's a pretty good game caller, a pretty good offensive play caller and scriptor, and that makes me a little nervous here with knowing we're going to Jacksonville. Yeah, I mean, I'm not, I'm a little scared of both these teams, so this one's to stay away for me because I think that there's some name value attached

to both of them that I'm not sure that they fully deserve right now, or at least their current iteration with like the New England injuries. So like a lot of the bull case for this offense, I think relied around AJ Brown, and then you have Trayvion Henderson in, who I think provides them more juice, but also, you know,

has caused a lot of other problems with past protection and things like that. And so if he's going to be playing a bigger role, then it's, again, it's boom or bust, which is, do you want that? I don't know. Maybe that is what you want. I'm just a little bit concerned about this offense here,

to be honest, and the events is good. Don't get me wrong. But the Jags' offense is also shown to be very good for time and time. So, again, So for me, it's like, could see it going a multitude of ways. Yeah, I mean, Drake's been untimely. You know, turnovers, hard to argue against that. Still like completion percentage over expectation, success rate, early down EPA.

All this stuff still very, very, very, very pro Drake. So they can kind of flatten it out. It's just hard to feel like the offense has the gear that we thought they would have without AJ Brown when you're just like, hey, what happened? No, A.J. Brown, yeah, guess what? It was just more Mac Collins and, you know, not a lot of DeMario-Douglas targets, but a lot more DeMario-Douglas routes, more Hunter Henry. And, like, it was good enough.

But it's tough to take that ship on the road against another team that can kind of hang a big number two if they're kind of clicking. So I'm with you. It's a stay away. Kansas City finally gets out of a prime time home spot has to go down to Florida. it's still a little warm down in Florida late September. This is kind of an advantage that Miami has at times. That would be the only advantage the Miami has

because then they still have to play football and that's where it starts to go sideways for the dolphins. They are getting 11 at home. 46 is the total. So Miami team total said, right, 17 and a half or so. It's a nice little spot to be. I have a feeling you're going to make the case for

fading Miami again. Yeah, I mean, shocker, right? We talked to the charges. is something that we got wrong. I think Miami is something that I got very right, right? It was like they, you know, I would talk to all offseason about them being one of the worst teams in the last three years on paper. And they very much are.

I mean, their offensive line sucks. Malik Willis is not good without good receivers. The coaching terribly. He's like no design runs. So like he has eight runs. I think he's fewer runs than Kirk Cousins. I saw a stat about this. Yeah.

That's correct, right? Yeah. I mean, what a mess. Like the only way you win things is you speak. Bam, Malik Willis runs. Like, that is the only shot you have and maybe winning games. And Devon, A-chan is just, he's been okay. Like, he's been the only saving grace.

Maybe it makes a couple guys miss. But when you have a two-yard run on first down and incompletion on second down, and you're second and eight, Lake Willis is not going to move the chains for you. And then there's certainly not punching the ball in the end zone well. Like it took, I think, actually for them to score or even do any, get into the red zone was basically took 49ers penalties on like every single drive. It was like roughing the pastor or off sides and stuff like that.

And if someone was sweating a Niners minus 13 ticket initially, I was like, man, this is just shooting themselves in the foot giving Miami a chance because they had no chance otherwise. Like this is genuinely one of the worst teams that I can remember. And so, yeah, like the Chiefs, I think might just run the ball with Emma Johnson and Kenneth Walker and get out of here with like 24 points. But again, the Dolphins are going to have like 45 plays. They have 46 plays a game through two games. So it's crazy. Good stuff. Yeah, I just think of this as like Thief Spagnola against Malik Willis in this offensive line.

And that's like, it's just a pretty clean handicap. It doesn't have to get super complicated. Yeah, it's such a big number on the road. But it's, I think when we start to get to decision time on the weekend, they're like, yeah, like I'm going to feel okay when that, you know, game starts. And like, yeah, it's a big number. But, man, like, sure, I wish it was nine and a half and not 11. Yeah. But who knows?

We'll have to wait and see. it just where it moves. Yeah, it's one of those things where it's like, okay, the number's big, they're playing on the road. And this is another NFL team barely. But like it just, the disparity in talent and coaching is just, it could not be wider, right? Like it is just one of the widest gaps, I think,

in the NFL upcoming. So again, they've now lost by 14 of the Raiders. I think they were down 30, 29 to the Niners before putting in their backups. So like, I mean, this is like we have two games and they're just getting smoked both games. And now they play the Chiefs who are much closer to the 49ers than they are to, you know, the Raiders. So we're talking about this in our group Slack earlier of a, you know, basically a two TV set up with the quad boxes. So you got eight games.

We have nine in the early slate on Sunday. Someone's got to go fairly easy for me. Now the more that I think about it, Tennessee and. Giants is a real tough watch. Not that I was like tripping over myself to watch it with Jackson Dart, but like this current iteration of whatever we saw of Jamis, which is not pretty makes this one kind of a tough watch. And that for me is stay away to bet too.

It's probably giants or nothing because I am not laying. I'm not taking two and a half. I'm not taking less than three with Tennessee on the road because it's tough, tough watch and tough hang. But any thoughts here? unless you have a, keep it moving unless you have a strong take. No,

keep it, keep it moving. I got nothing on this one. Sincy Pittsburgh, another divisional matchup. Interesting. Pittsburgh getting three and a half at home. Pretty uninspiring in Pittsburgh offense.

Like I said in New England, again, I thought the paths were kind of right to be picked on there. But since you look good, you know, the, again, Dexter Lawrence for the 10-pick seems to have been a pretty solid win. They're pass protecting a little bit,

better. Again, tough matchup in terms of who they've drawn. You know, that's kind of the strength of Pittsburgh, too. Obviously, their pass rush can really get it going here. But it feels like all systems go for this Bengals team right now. Are we donkeys by laying three and a half here on the road? No, I think I'm in. The Steelers' offense has not been good through two weeks.

Now, again, one of those against New England, pretty fairly tough matchup. But another one, right, like against the Falcons. I don't think they were that good against the Falcons. Falcons are not a good defense by any stretch. you know, Michael Pittman's injured. Rogers is already throwing his coaching staff under the bus, saying the play calls were bad. So there's a little bit of a rift there. It just seems very dysfunctional already.

And so then this Bengals team is turning the opposite direction. Again, like their offense is still electric when it needs to be in their defense plays reasonably well. That's all it takes. Like, can they, is this defense better than the Falcons defense? I would say so, right? Like they can cause some problems with the Steelers? That's for sure. That's, and that's all you can ask for here.

when the offense can drop, you know, 30 points easily in a game. So I like the Bengals here. Three and a half on the road's a lot. But this feels like a good, good opportunity to keep back in the Bengals here. Yeah, I want to, I want to get talked out of the Bengals. So the fact that you're not doing that, I'm probably going to be in on that one as well. I think there's going to be some, the Pittsburgh's defense has been okay,

but you've been able to get chunk plays on them at a pretty crazy clip to start the year. And again, small sample. But again, the fact, that they have given up explosive passes at this high of a level and they've played new england without a j brown and Atlanta um that makes me a little nervous for joe bro if they're able to keep them healthy like 27 percent explosive pass rate allowed for a pittsburgh defense that's high is a tough tough matcher for what since he wants to do and can do uh i thought we're going to get backup quarterbacks in seattle in seattle in seattle washington game uh but it looks like we might get sam

Donald's. We do get Marcus Marriota for the commanders in Seattle's laying about seven here on the road here. What do you think about Seattle and the commanders? Yeah, fairly interested. I mean, Seattle's defense alone just carried them, I mean, for two weeks, basically. You know, that's like, I think that's pretty interesting. And then offensively, they could certainly cause a lot of problems for the commanders.

Commanders were, you know, I would say playing about up to expectation, give the offensive the line issues and everything. And now you throw in Marcus Marriota. That's just a tough ask for him to do much of anything. So I don't mind Seattle here. I don't know if it's my favorite, but I like it. I like it quite a bit. I think there are just a few really simple,

like handicapped elements matchup-wise that I think are going to be hard for Washington to get past. I think the offensive line's a problem and beat up a little bit. And Seattle's defense really hasn't missed a beat. you know who's going to get home is hard to pinpoint because they have such a strong rotation but i think they're going to be in the backfields with mariotta all day and then like what do you do with jsn i know that there's no one on washington that has an answer for that um yeah and that's just enough like we saw that was enough in arizona

he was just such a problem uh he really got whatever he want so and again if they get sam darnal back again they probably can do whatever they want here so yes seven I feel pretty good. If we got a little higher than that, it would be a little bit tougher, but I think seven, Seattle is probably the right side. I'm seeing seven at Circa right now,

so hopefully that's what they lock at because I think that could make the end of my card. Yeah, all right. Any Arizona San Fran thoughts? Again, divisional battle here, eight and a half or so, 47 and a half is a total. San Fran just continues to have injuries too

and it doesn't really matter. This Shanahan-Purdy thing works pretty well. Arizona can put up a fight, but I'm worried they are. We're also having cluster injuries in the secondary, and that's bad news against the Niners. It feels like another game where Niners are coming off another awesome game and then are just going to randomly lose the game

and the Cardinals are going to play terrible and then randomly win. The game's going to be 17, 14 and a half time for Arizona. They've done this two times. It's just like this is, I've seen this movie too many times before. For me, it's a stay away. But if I had to pick aside, I think the Niners should blow them out.

And our way, the much better team. But this car, Cardinals team is a weird team to bet against. Like, even last year, they would be random games. They would win random games that they don't deserve. So slide back in. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Blitzfest. Two teams that love to absolutely send it.

Minnesota laying a point in a half on the road. Tampa Bay, you know, again, pretty massive disappointment to start the year. We need to coin tossing Cincinnati in week one. But like they really fumbled that one away. And then they, again, just were really unimpressive last week. against Cleveland. Now Ruben Baines dealing with some injuries. They also have some injuries in the secondary. I worry about their ability to protect Baker in this one. I like Minnesota. I will make the case for Minnesota minus one and a half. For me, it's a little bit of stay away, but I get it. I mean,

with Kyler back, I mean, Kyle back's nice, if that's the case for sure. I mean, is it, though? Like, we saw like, 10 snap. No, I don't. Like, if we just root to our preseason bias or our preseason like our priors, it's definitely a good thing. If we include any of what we saw, it's not a good thing. So I don't know. I don't want to wait 10 snaps. It seems ridiculous. But it's hard not to at least notice a little bit.

So I don't mind Minnesota. And I think Tampa is worthy of fading after what we just saw the atrocities. And they were sloppy in week one too. It was really bad. So, yeah, I think it's fine. The running game is a little bit concerning too. Like Aaron Jones dinged up, no Jordan Mason. so you're looking at Demand Claremore,

Clairborne, and I think there's one other guy now. So, like, I don't know, a little skeptical on the running game, which puts a little more pressure on Kyler in his first game back. So I don't know. It's not one, again, not one that I love, but if you're making a big case for it, I know you're a Minnesota Bull, and they are a good team.

So it's, you know, lean them, but it's probably towards the four to six range of ones that I'm leaning towards on the millions card. Fair. Yeah, I think it's a nice Justin Jefferson spot in this matchup. and Baltimore Dallas, a really weird game. Dallas has probably been one of the bigger disappointments for me in terms of where we are.

I guess their defense more so than anything. I thought that was going to be a solid unit. I thought it was going to be part of why they could ascend. And they've been, I mean, just really abysmal for the most part across the board, really uninspiring. Now, Baltimore, another team that just, I mean, classic Baltimore game. You look at a lot of the advanced analytics and it was like, man, they were awesome. And I'm like, no, they just can't put it away.

Like they get weird stuff. Like a weird third and one like midfields with like six minutes to go. And they took like a 50 yard chunk attempt down the field to bateman. And then they punt. It's like, I mean, you could have just ran it twice with Derek Henry, get a yard. You control the ball again for like another four minutes probably. And they get down a field goal range, take care of this game. And no, you send it back to the saints and let them take advantage.

It was just, you know, bad coaching decision more than anything there. That's a stay away for me. I like Dallas three and a half, but that's also just solely on preseason priors. There's been nothing that makes me think that that's the right side right now. So I kind of want to stay away. I kind of like the three and a half of Dallas. I think that's okay. I mean, again, at home, just keep it within a field goal.

I think the offense has shown enough. Yeah, generally. I mean, the New York game was questionable at times, but I think they kind of got that back against Washington a little bit. bit. So I would, I think three and a half's okay. Um, on Dallas. It's again, you said the defense has been questionable at times. They did give some problems the commanders, but it's like, it's really tough because like how much do you wait the commanders versus the giants first, like we thought the giants could be ascending and then obviously just goes out

the window. You don't even have a second game sample size there after what happened. So I, you know, it's a tough early sample, I think, for the Cowboys. I know that the Raiders are two and I know that that's nice for them and great. Maybe they get Brock Bowers back. Kirk's been kind of cooking a little bit. I don't know. I like New Orleans here, laying the three. What do you think?

Yeah, it's good opportunity to fade the Raiders, I think after two weeks against a pretty bad Falcons team or a pretty bad team in week one. Sorry, Dolphins team in week one. And then week two, just the most, maybe the most disappointed team in the league right now with Chargers. So I think it could be an interesting spot here if we believe in New Orleans.

So, yeah, three is. not bad. He's not bad. You know, injuries up front to the offensive line for the Saints, which you don't like to see, you know, with banks going out, but I still think I just kind of want to fade, you know, the writers when I can. They're also dealing with some injuries in the secondary,

a questionable secondary to begin with. I think that bodes well for what the Saints want to do here. Their run game is kind of a disaster. The offensive line injuries aren't going to help that. But I think sometimes these things work in favor of a team. It's like, hey, when you just draw back at a higher rate, it's actually way better for you and maybe you prevent you

from doing less of the least efficient thing of your offense. So Saints for me I think is a pretty good look if we can get the three. How about the Rams in Denver? Denver getting two and a half at home, which I think is very interesting. But again,

without Puka, I would like, I guess, Denver without Puka, but I have to kind of wait and see what happens here. Well, I thought this exact same thought process. I was like, you know, I don't think Puga's going to play again or at least be injured when he does play. And I was like, you know, maybe Denver's right side here. And then I just had these like visceral memories of them just getting eaten alive by the chiefs in week one on the ground and just getting bullied like repeatedly for the entire 60 minutes

just on the ground game. And that didn't say well. So I'm out on that one. But I if they learn how to stop the run, sure. You know, that's like if they can, I don't know, slow down a, I don't mean the Rams are a great running team like they they've shown the ability to dominate in the open holes for these guys is one-two-putch of quorum and karen so i struggle with that because i hypothetically the broncos should be able to stop their run but they had no answers for the chiefs in week one yep and

the good enough case to to stay away um philly and chicago we don't know what's going on in chicago quarterback um which makes this one really triggered a handicap they're getting four and a half at home against the eagles been super disappointing but yeah i mean if they're starting case keen in which looks like might be the case not in they're starting tyson baygent still probably not in but interested maybe some props i don't know i'm just not not super interested in taking them kind of agree um all right so we have we've some discussion here on uh on the car yeah probably have six or seven that we that we like who's the survivor play for the week um you know win probability wise they're going to kc buffalo

San Francisco was kind of the big favorites. Looks like you could use Kansas City. Again, maybe at the Jets. They get the Cardinals in week 11. Buffalo, I mean, you probably can use them a bunch. Obviously, they're going to get Miami and the Jets twice. Those are kind of my liens. What do you think here for Survivor?

Kansas City, locking in, forget about it. Just fade the dolphins until the wheels fall off. Or there's like a sketchy enough game, but I don't think there is going to be. I mean, you take the Jets against Miami wherever they play too. I mean,

this is like, yeah, just a pathetic team. I think Buffalo is a good look too. Like, I don't think Buffalo's losing at home to the Chargers right now. You know,

if anything is going to go wonky, like if then, I don't think that the dolphins are winning a football game this week. But like early season, I don't know, what's the forecast? Is that game,

you know, all of a sudden like, oh shit, it's been, you know, 60 degrees in the Midwest. All of a sudden, like,

you know, KC goes down there. Sun's blaring. It's 95 in the humid. They're not ready for. They get caught early and ultimately decided they want to let Malik Willis run a little bit. That's the only thing that would

make me nervous with that one. Again, that's all very far-fetched. But I would lean Buffalo over KC, but I think those are the top two plays for sure. It's just great because I'm looking at the Survivor schedule for Miami, Kansas City at Minnesota, again, Cincinnati,

buy at the Jets. Not winnable, but technically winnable. New England, Detroit. Like, this is just, you're not going to win a game. This is crazy. Yeah. Chargers, too. I mean, the charges schedule, brutal.

Brutal. In the next, like, eight weeks. It's like tough, tough scene. All right. Check out Sharpstack. Subscribe. You can go to 4.4.com slash plans. Again, go to find Sharpstack on Twitter, too.

You can find, you can, again, TD3. This is a promo code right now where it's going to get you a month of Sharpstack and picks for $9. bucks, which again, everything important for. So DFS fantasy, all the things that you're doing there, all included. So I don't know, $9. I don't know. Just do it.

Take advantage. Again, if you have any questions, you can take a free seven-day trial, a sharp stack to start if you want. But I would just jump in and take advantage of that deal and get in there. So come back, find move the line where we listen to the podcast or here on the YouTube channel Friday 3 p.m. Eastern is prop drop. We're going to give out some more bangers with slop. So for Connor, I'm Ryan.

We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.