Move The Line - Best NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 28, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen close out NFL Week 3 with a full look at the Monday Night Football player prop market. They discuss their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props, breaking down the matchups, projections, and odds that stand out before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, presented by Sharpstack, Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen. We're going to unpack more week three stuff on our Wednesday show because it's been a wild start to the year. Some 0 and 3 teams that are surprising to us, some 3-0 teams that are surprising to us. Maybe we'll look at some futures and stuff like that. So move the line, we listen to podcasts, move the line on YouTube.

Obviously, joining me here as always, Connor Allen, a little bit of Monday night football talk. How we doing? Yeah, I'm good. Week 3 was a very much felt like 1 plus 1 equals 5 type of week where there was a lot of things we thought made sense in weeks one and two and then just made no sense and it happened in week three so we'll get that more on the wednesday show where we unpack kind of the following week and some of what we saw before but yeah it's a weird

monday night football game we got the bears at home against the eagles and i'm just there's a lot of props that i want to bet under on but are so low but i'm also like maybe they're not low enough you know so kind of going back and forth on it okay uh yeah obviously a weird game uh with quarterback situation in Chicago. Trying to think through how that game, like it hasn't changed the game state. So I guess start there. Like obviously with,

you know, Case Keenham, dust it off. Like even thinking about how does a, you know, Tyson, patient start look different than what Ben Johnson would want to do with,

with Caleb. And I think also at times like, we still are not super impressed, I guess, with maybe the Eagles playing with their food a little bit. You know, I think the, stealing that they showed a little bit at times last week in week two against the Titans

also has to be I don't know kind of you know dressed in the fact that it was the Titans right so like what do you make of that Sequin hasn't been really explosive the run game hasn't been great so where do we start here I mean well first off this so this line will open up at four and a half we're back down to we're down to three and a half which isn't like a a massive massive move but it's not nothing I think that that certainly is is worth noting here and I think part of the key here is you get the bears at home against an Eagles team that hasn't really defended the run really well. And that's kind of been what the bears have done, I think largely pretty well, at least been able to rely on through two weeks. So, and a lot of the scheming that I think

Ben Johnson does in the running game obviously is going to remain consistent. That's not Case Keenum's, primary job there. So I think we're going to see a super run-heavy approach from the bears, Swift, Minangai. Even if they fall behind a little bit, I think that they still stick with the run. and yeah, I don't know. Like I kind of, I just have this weird lingering feeling that, again, line moved against the Bears, that the Bears are going to sound like,

keep this game pretty close. I have not been impressed with the Eagles. The offensive line has not been good. Even when they made changes, it still wasn't good. Seguin's getting been, been getting hit behind the line a bunch, as you mentioned.

They lost Alice Goddard. So I don't know. I'm like, I haven't seen much to be impressed by the Eagles. Again, I think, you know, Alan mentioned it here, I bet Keenham under 171 and a half off principle.

I don't hate it, to be honest. I don't think they're going to pass much. If they do pass, I don't think they're going to have a ton of success because the Eagles pass if this has been pretty good. We're looking at third overall in dropback success rate and 28th overall in rushing success rate right now a lot. So again, matches up with exactly my analysis there.

This could be another one plus one equals five week where Case Keen throws about 40 times in a winning game, but I kind of don't think so. Yeah, I don't think so either. I think you're probably right to think about the, the run game um chicago's run game is for getting even with with kaleb in there they definitely i think skew run heavier than people realize um i could do a lot off of that this be a game that colson lovelin gets going one reception on

the air for for coast and lovelin seems like a tough match it would be there right that's that's the point right like last week seemed like such a clear easy oh like we'll buy the dip on colson lovelin he you know shud the down our throats one catch on the year for coast and lovelin um it's Case Keeney to the one who gets him going. It could be. I, I, I've always said, and like, even before, before the Bears got Ben Johnson, like, there was people basically saying, like, well, Caleb Williams is not really a good fit for what Ben Johnson is good at,

which is hilarious now, you know, like what Ben Johnson is good. Like, he wants a quarterback who can just, like, play within structure, hit the open, like the easy reads, doesn't do all the extra stuff that Caleb does. Now, then, you know, the Bears were working out. That's all just so lazy and extrapolating who Jared God is, right? which is, I think your point. Yeah, I fully pushed back against that. I did not like that analysis because in an ideal scenario,

like he does the little things and can do all the extra stuff when the play fails, which is going to happen. So I like that. I, you know, again, and that's what we saw starting to happen with Caleb. And I think we'll continue to happen eventually. But my point is that like Ben Johnson can get it done with, I think, a guy who just like sits within structure and it sits to read and calls it a day. Like, I think it'll be okay.

I don't think it's going to be good. I think it's just going to be fine. Yeah, it might be. Is it good enough against the Eagles? again who, like you said, haven't been run the football very well. The Bears defense does not have any teeth that, yeah, that we're worried about at all. The secondary has really been bad.

You know, you would think that regardless of the matchup, like, Devante Smith should have, you know, a solid ability to win all over the place. I mean, Jaylon Johnson is fine, but like not going to be shadowing per se and they move Devante Smith all over the place. And again, with some of the death issues that they have

a receiver as well or a tight end with Dallas got it out, is there a path to, you know, exploiting the Bears defense the rating of the Philadelphia side. Yeah, this is where, so that's where I'm struggling with. Obviously, you have got it out. One thing that I was looking at is a tight end situation. They signed Zacherts, who hasn't played with Philly since 2021, but is coming

off of a season-ending injury with Washington, the prior year. So, like, I don't think that he just, like, knows the offense. You know, like he did play with the Eagles, but I don't think it's the same for my understanding when I was doing research. His prop's nine and a half yards. I'm seeing Johnny Munt also at nine and a half yards. I would guess we're going to see mostly Johnny Mont. Now, I have been burned with the, the, the,

J. Hawkinson fiasco a couple of years ago where he was traded midweek and then started and like won all of his props, bet all of his props. I've had a bunch of unders. It was like three and a half catches and 30 yards or whatever, and they just fed him. Now, I'm worried about having an earth under because I think the same thing could maybe happen. He just goes out there, catches a couple balls and falls down. Again, that's something I'm monitoring though.

Maybe there's some like pregame reports by usage or whatnot. He was saying earlier in the week like, hey, I don't know what my usage is going to be. I'm not sure if I'm going to be active. It's up to the coaches. So that's a situation of monitoring because like if you get a better read on that, there's like a very clear like betting angle either way. It's just maybe not an under on nine and a half, but like an over on month or hurts. Just don't know what that is.

And then I'm not betting Smith over. It's already in the 70s despite the good matchup. Wicks uncorrelated could be interesting maybe. and then what's his name Mackay Lemon I mean they've been playing a ton of 11 personnel

anyways I played 92% last week so I think Mikey Lemon's usage is going to stay the same I don't think Goddard matters that much for it and so he means he's what nine yards through two games

something like that's like all gadgety stuff it hasn't been really there the downside is the bear suck it's like it's like the I need like one more nail in the coffin to be like all right I'm ready to play this but I just don't have it Yeah, I don't have a feel for it for a lot of the same reasons.

There's just a lot of like, I kind of agree with Patrick in the chat. It was just like on paper theoretically coming into it. Like I wanted to bet the Eagles or bet against the Eagles so bad. So it in a great spot to back a full strength Bears team, you know, which you probably would have had less than three. And they were just, we're not, we're not there anymore. So it's just there's so many unknowns with, you know, when you throw in, not just the backup quarterback,

be throwing, you know, a really, really dusty, you know, QB3 that we didn't even know was basically a QB3 until a couple weeks ago. So it's like, I don't even know, like when it was last start was a while ago, right? Yeah. Gosh. If you played a little bit in 2023 with the Texans. Yep. Okay.

Not great. I don't think it was very good. Yeah, are we going to see checkdowns? Again, I know it's bringing up an uncomfortable conversation around, you know, bears running back, receiving stuff as being a viable option. And again, like, it's not something that Marcus that we love. We talk about this often on all of our stuff. Like, there are a lot of times those seem really, really nice.

And you're like, oh, man, this is trending this way. And that just seems to not be sticky week to week. whether it's game script or just, you know, matchup dependent, whether it's scheme on the other side, maybe some certain systems, you know, invite that a little bit more than others. Obviously, you see it a little bit more in zone than against man. But these are spots, I think,

you would definitely want to chase ceiling outcomes, maybe even uncorrelated, because you could get like a game breaker from, you know, a dump off. But I'm just trying to find anything to try to actually have some sort of angle to get down on for this one because otherwise right now it feels like I'm going to wait for some more widely available tackles to be posted but even that like the game script is really hard to read that to make any sort of you know game level adjustments

on like I kind of like the unders on the the Eagles linebackers but like if this becomes a very heavy bears running game then the Eagles linebackers should probably deserve more of an uptick than I'm already given it like that stuff is already kind of a little bit complicated here yeah that's tough that's not a super easy scenario I mean this is is again like the more that I look at this game I just think the bears are going to jam the run here I kind of like Roma dunzee unders it's like two and a half reception which kind of sucks but like if they go run heavy he's going to catch the outsups from outside coverage from quinine and mitchell he's still kind of coming to his own he's got case keenum who's like you know

a dot is a little bit lower than average relative to so compared to the league median he throws under five air yards 47.7% of the time average of the target. it's 7.5 versus 8.3. So I don't know. It's just like he just checks the ball down more, as you mentioned. So I don't know. I mean, that would be where my lean under is on the Bears side. I think like you said, Loveland or Kemet or.

Yeah, right. Your boy Kleefehrieff Raymond might just keep feasting or burden. Might be a good Keeleaf Raymond spot. I hadn't been thinking about that. Looks like the EV tool likes to Case Keenum under five and a half rushing yards as the best play on the board currently where that is does he run

yeah it's basically four and a half everywhere else and juiced I mean even I mean that's the thing is like he's 40 right one scramble I mean he's 38 sorry not not don't want to be disrespectful you never know

and then they also likes uh Kalshi your boy Johnny Munt over 14 and a half at plus 180. It looks like a tier point, like pinnacles, eight and a half, No Vig, nine and a half,

Fandul nine and a half, builders, nine and a half. So, you know, the standard line is nine and a half. But like, hey, Calchers, like, hey, we'll take one chase the ceiling on Johnny Mont. Johnny Mont's ceiling game, 15 yards. I'm gonna, I might bet the under on this, on Case Keenum, four and a half rushing yards. I mean, he, in the,

20, 23, he had two carries for one yard on like 70 dropbacks or whatever. 2022 he had five carries for zero yards i don't even know that's possible like where you just kneel downs i guess like three kneel downs one run and then a bunch of kneel downs that level it up yeah i might just might just ride with that i don't know if it'll be an official play but i'll probably have some action on it myself just because it's fun sweat yeah it's gonna be a great fun sweat just like my sky more one which dominated on on the back of uh true 75 dropbacks from jorloff it only took you know, a million dropbacks from

to get there. But, you know, it's great because I pushed out Stafford under and they ran 82 plays and, you know, I don't push out Sky Moore over and they run a billion pass attempts. So that's just how the things have been fallen so far this year.

We got a good run out on Emmett Johnson yesterday. Oh, man, that was so lucky. That was, that was unbelievable. I mean, no, skill, of course. We knew. They were the full game. Yeah. They also only ran like 55 plays or something like that.

It was ridiculously low play volume. The Dolphin. 49 official plays, I think. Was it 49? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, that's, if they run the normal 60 plays, he gets there easily, you know, like, it's, it's crazy. It was, I mean, the Dolphins were just, the Dolphins were playing to cover.

Like, they were literally like 60th left in the game, down two scores. They're running like three play, three run plays in a row. Like, it was like they were legit just trying to go for one last touchdown to cover the spread. Yeah. And they go, you know, 0 and 17, but, you know, be a, a net winner against the spread, you know. hang the banner great teams cover right yeah big cat proud all right case keenam's our angle case keenem under again rivers looks like the loan five and a half so you're mostly widely available four and a half i'm willing to bet you're probably not losing that by a hook like you know he's

either running or not running um yeah so that's probably probably a pretty good probably a pretty good angle. Like I said, yeah, Rivers. Everyone else is kind of is four and a half at a decent price. Like, I know, Fandals moving a little bit to 125. So you sickos are already betting it a little bit. So I love that. Respect.

People are in on the stuff here. I might just like bet a bunch honors. I don't know. I mean, this is like one of those things where everything's just so low. But we're going to be 30 rush attempts into the game. The game is going to be almost over, you know. and I'm like why did I not just bet like every single under on the passing game but you know it feels like it's going to be very obvious in hindsight spray the board yeah I don't have anything

that I would you like any overs yeah I was I was I said no no I'm with you like it's you know I obviously there's a reason that is that Smith's line is you know low 70s he set up to have a probably a pretty decent day but like it's not a passing offense that I want to jump in on that with like it's not an indictment of the player. I like the player, but it's a, it's a spot that I want to. Not a spot I want to jump in on.

I'm just stay on the side. And maybe I'll get on some Case Keenom stuff with you to have a sweat. And there's a tackleer too I like if they become more widely available when we get some of those posted. Yeah, that's interesting. What about Case Kingdom attempts? I mean, the problem with attempts is like if the Bears fall behind,

they get a last drive with like 10 attempts. That sucks. The problem with the checkdown merchant is complete. could be you know a little bit that's why like that's why like that's why cam ward's great because cams not checking down very much she's just trying to chuck and force it down the fields and can't complete the past so dude the drop back of him just like fully flat footed just sitting there like and just like standing in the pocket I don't know if you saw that one but I got to send the video he's like just dropping back and then just like just fully stops like the plays over

and then just like it goes like this and like checks it down and like goes over the guy's head It's so good. It's like, the announcers are like, and Cam Ward, like, what? He just fully stops? Like mid-play, like, it was so confusing. It was wild. Yeah. Swift receptions might be a play.

Yeah, I think so. If they're forced to throw, this could be a lot. Maybe it's a live look. If they're forced to throw, I think that the checkout stuff would be really good. That could be like a good live angle with Swift or Monungi receptions. Yeah, you could probably take derivatives of like longest or something like I would look for some, you know, sprinkling of that if you're looking to catch some nice plus numbers or something like that. But I think the live angle is correct. I think that that's, it's probably

something I would want. I'm not chasing pre-flop. If the game's close, like, Kingdom could finish with like 25 attempts or 22 attempts, in which case you do not want a reception over. You are just, you're really getting lucky there by hitting it over. Yeah, that would be tough. So I think the live angle there, first play run. I don't know if that's available anywhere. that would be a fun one. I like that. Those are usually priced about even. So,

I'll look and see if we can find that because I'll ride that too. But we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel here with Case Keenum, perhaps. Yeah. All right, so I got a Case Keenum rushing stuff here. Shout out Claude. Let's see here.

We got career scramble rate is 2.4% of dropbacks. 48 scrambles on 2000 and 23. It's a percent below league median during the time that he was actually a starter, 2016 and 2019.

26th is behind runs in his whole career for 47 yards. I mean, what about in the last like five years? Like, I mean, it's crazy. Yeah, I think Erd's touchdown. I see the people playing that.

I think that's kind of a fun angle too. If you wanted about like Erd's 20 yards in a touchdown, like he might just be randomly involved. I don't know. It's like we have no idea. Yeah. And I think Patrick made the point early in the chat too. If he is involved,

I would not be surprised if it's more like red zone package stuff. Um, that makes significantly more sense versus him like being a compiler, you know, between the 20s. Yeah. We'll pretend to agree there. Um, all right. I'm in. I'm in on some, I'm in on some case Keenam unders. Let's get it.

I haven't better yet, but, uh, yeah. Didn't Keenem disorders. Yeah. You know, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna fire on this just for fun too. I'm pulling some more, it was more recent stuff too because the difference between 2016 and 29. and in 2026 is quite a lot. Yeah, what was it? 2017 was the Case Keenum Vikings year, right?

I think so, yeah. I think it's 2017. Yeah. Just a couple of years back, you know. We're far away. No, we're pretty far. We're far away. Yeah, guys, he has four scrambles in the last since 2021.

Yeah. Yeah, Patrick, trust me. This happens. I'm so old, I remember my college thing. Like, this happens all the time. I saw something like Justin Verlander threw his last pitch or something yesterday for the tigers. He's been in a league forever.

I'm like, yeah, I remember Justin Verlander. I remember like the draft discussion around him before he even came out. Like, man, I thought I'd have been around for way too long to be remembering these things. But yeah, Case Canem could chuck it around down at Houston. So all right.

That's it. We, uh, yeah, dude, Medina burnt. No, uh, no hats in Medina for me. I was, uh, rocking just trying to get some of that fresh VD. And, uh, yeah, it's a lovely, lovely, lovely weekend at, uh, and it's sorry, Matt. You're a celebrity, dude. You're a celebrity. Yeah.

I don't know about that. But, you know, Matt and I were going back and forth on the, uh, captain's pick selection strategy on Saturday nights. And I don't know that he was wrong or that I was right, but it worked out from the U.S. favor. So point be had plus 140 was available on Friday night. Like, what I told you? I don't know if you dropped in any.

I didn't, but I saw it and I liked it. Okay. I was at the bar. So I was sitting up happy hour. It's fair. And, you know, it was lost in a couple of espresso martini. So we didn't get to it. But I liked it.

It made sense. Yeah. Got it home. So all right. Appreciate everyone. hang out as always uh move the line where you listen to podcasts also on the youtube channel subscribe like all those things come back wednesday uh connor and i will spend more time looking at the week four slate and again you know kind of overreaction season what do we do with some of these three

and o teams what do we do with some o and three teams are there any future markets that we can take advantage of um you'll kind of unpack all that on wednesday and then friday obviously three p m eastern with slop for prop drops so for connor and ryan we'll see all next time thanks everybody