Move The Line - Best NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen take a final look at NFL Week 4 with a full breakdown of the Falcons-Saints Monday Night Football player prop market. They discuss their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props, highlighting the projections, matchup advantages, and prices that stand out before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move of line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Noonan joined here as always by Colin around. Well, Monday night football discussion here. The Falcons and Saints from the bow on week four. Connor, how are we doing, bud? Good. Got back on the wagon this week, you know, winning week so far. So feeling good there.

A couple of pretty strong results. And some of the ones we lost on were just to get very fluky volume. I think Jared Goff had like 60 attempts basically. So, you know, any under is tied to there. We're just basically DOA. You know, it's a lot of random things like that, basically. Where the losses, but the wins felt good. They won pretty comfortably.

So no complaints. With some sweet, sweet, sweet, CLV on Tyler Warren. Yep. They didn't matter. I think they're just, yeah, you just feel like that's going to happen sometimes. Like, oh, this just opened up 40 and a half, you know, then you get the Keenan-A-N-A-N-A-news and it just kind of climbs out there and then just not involved. really in the first half at all and uh yeah gaining jones you can't be feeling good about your your colts

stuff with uh you know it's dusted no they they won the last what two games now extremely unconvincingly i would say uh so yeah i can't say that i feel great yeah it's a tough one we'll get more into some of the week four stuff on our wednesday show so again find move of the line we'll listen to podcast also move the line on youtube we'll get into a little bit more of unpacking that and then looking ahead to the week five slates. We are in by season now, which is crazy that we're here already with the Chiefs and the Panthers off for week five. It happens very early, very cushioned spot for the Chiefs, you know, thinking about like

ramping up your, you know, your quarterback coming off of an ACL. You get a relatively softish schedule to start. You get a nice early by setting up well for the Chiefs. The networks know, you know, they want Patma Holmes and playoff games in those island spots late in the season and league very much obliged in the schedule making. But anyway, we got a NFC self-battle here for Monday night football. This has moved kind of against us. We've played the Saints at two and a half in our millions pick on Circa this week.

It's even down to one on Circa, which is surprising. It really haven't heard anyone cape up for the Saints. The narrative that I tried to drive home with us, too, is like we get this 20th anniversary of the Katrina game against the Falcons think you're going to have, you know, the dome was going to be popping here. You know, were we wrong here? Where is it the just maybe the market was off on who the Falcons were and like this post-Penix revival or just overrating the Saints?

How do you think we got here? Yeah, I think a lot of it's penics and like the uncertainty there, right? Because we just saw him come in last week, struggle for a quarter and look pretty bad and then just go beat the lights out for the rest of the game. and I think that that kind of difference made this closer to even. Now, I think they're pricing this more like we're getting, for sure, getting the three quarters, Michael Pennex that we saw, you know, at the end and not as much of the downside of the first quarter and most of his career. Like he's been very much fine. It's the entire, you know, part of his career, I would say at this point.

Obviously with upside. But again, it just like hasn't been consistent at all. I think you'd say the same about plenty of quarterbacks in the league, though. They show flashes and then that edge just like doesn't. doesn't really continue. So I think a lot of that is priced into moving kind of against the Saints here. Also, I think there's some Saints questions on the offensive line. The, you know, defense hasn't played particularly well.

But either the family report. The injury report broke poorly for the Saints, I will say, with Kate Nellis is out. Carl Granderson is out. There's a couple of things that worked against them. And maybe that's part of it, too. Yeah. Also, too, like the Falcons defensive data has been really good, but we don't really believe that they are good.

So I guess that's the kind of the problem is the run defense right now. We talked about this offline. Number one, rushing success rate allowed. They're not allowing a ton of yards because they're not fixing a ton of rushing attempts. They also have one of the league's highest pressure rates right now, which is shocking. But it's all, I think, mostly schedule driven, right? I think that was the takeaway. I think so.

I mean, I was looking at it. They've actually faced the fewest amount of rushing attempts so far, heading into the week. So obviously, excluding all the week forward action. I mean, AJ Terrell's out. It's a pressure unit that I would expect to be a bottom third to lead comfortably. But I think they really feasted and kind of bolstered some of these metrics on a beat-up Panthers offensive line even.

And then obviously the Packers last week, I'm not buying it. I think this is something we look back on in a couple of weeks and we're like that felt good stuff was fraudulent. There's really no one here that's like going to be winning consistently. And again, maybe they can take advantage of the Saints injuries along the offensive line. as well and piece it together for another week. I'm just willing to bet against it.

So I really like the Saints at less than three here. Kind of a great feel for the total, sitting around some key numbers here, 47 and a half, even out to 48 in some spots. Saints are just tricky because they're such a pace-up spot too, so they can kind of bring volume up and that makes their totals a little bit tricky. But yeah, I'm willing to fade some of the early season

Falcons data. What's kind of interesting to me is that when you consider a whole field advantage, which now at this point was like a point and a half-ish. We're basically making this like a dead even thing here. And I think that that's a little bit off. I think the Saints are a little bit better. So I agree with your analysis there.

I just thought that's, and maybe a whole advantage here, as you mentioned, if you want to buy into the narratives, like it's worth a little bit more. That's definitely possible, I think, in this situation. Yeah, I think that's fair. What about the problem, Mark? You and I were talking offline.

I had a thought around basically my handicap was, I think Henry Miller was good. he just cannot ever, ever stay healthy. Then I used our new snapcharts here at 44 and looked at some of the trends and, you know, the running back usage in New Orleans. It's really been like straight up drive for drive. It was frustrating early season. We thought like even week one, all right, Camaro's out.

This is going to be a really nice spot for Travis Ateen. I thought he was going to be able to kind of cook a little bit. And if you look, it is just kind of straight. drive-based stuff. It just has been a situation where at times, like the AT& drive has been just a little bit longer than it's been for some of the other players. So that's why he would maybe leave,

but not really have it where we want to be. So I could see a situation here where this is a pretty much a drive-for-drive-drive split for Kamara and Kendri Miller. I was kind of making the, hey, I think Kendry Miller might be light. And I knew right away your brain was going to be, do we be hammering these unders on Alvin Kamara. Yeah, that's

I put together a nice tweet too. I kind of backed it up. I thought the tweet was good. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at. Well, because while I'm looking at it in his prop right now,

we're looking at 36 and a half rushing yards, 37 and a half in some spots like Builder. And his carry line, though, it was like 10 and a half or 11 and a half.

So I was like, how often does this happen where his implied yards per carry is like 3.2, basically, because it seems like extraordinarily low. So I looked it up in the last year.

so just basically when our data goes back to so not super far and there's been more than i remembered michael carters was lined around like two and a half uh implied yards per carry woody marks 2.9 so 30 yards and 10 and a half carries uh and i kind of looked at the results there what i did think was interesting so every lead back under three and a half implied yards per carry carries went under 51 and 21 under so 71 percent yards went under 60 percent of the implied there so um it is basically saying saying that Like, something is wrong. It's just they don't know how to price it as.

And so I would lead under on both. That being said, I guess the only hesitance there on, you know, the ETR Pod, Silva mentioned that Underhill was saying they're going to ride Camara. To your point, they haven't really rode anyone. It's kind of been weird, really usage. You mentioned the staff chart here. So, like, you can see EETN got injured kind of midgame here, hereish. And then after that, it was like Alvin and Kendrae, you know, from basically splitting from there

on after. If you go back the week prior, you see ETN, Camara, again, just like kind of mixing in pretty routinely here. And so I think that, like you said, it's probably going to be a healthy mix of both. I don't know. Do you prefer the Kendri Miller over? I mean, I don't know. I'm just kind of like worried. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, I think the under 11.5 carries on Camara is probably the right way to play it. And there's some liquidity there on Novig. and readily available, I think, at a fine, a bedable number at 11.5. I think in a spot, kind of what we're handicapping,

usage-wise, speaks more to, like, the carry volume, specifically, and you take out the variance of a big play and getting burned on the big play on the rushing and just say, hey, he's not getting 12 carries, right? Maybe he's involved a little bit more. Maybe they trust him a little bit more than they do, you know, Donaldson and Kendrae Miller. I also think Kendra Miller is a guy that can pop off on, you know,

five or six carries. So I'm definitely not interested in taking a stand on Miller's usage spiking to the seven or eight carry range. Though it very much could, I just think he can get it done with some explosives. And I kind of want to call bullshit a little bit on the falcons rushing stats, which I think might also be part of what's driving just a little bit too. So I'm more inclined to go Kendrae Miller, but I think that the Kamara under 11.5 rushing attempts is probably the sharp side. I'm going to price some of what Brian is saying out here, like just put plug it in.

is like Miller 30 plus and Camara attempts under. If you go to Fandul, Your Way, you can do some probably pretty fun ones with like directly, and kind of choose more specifically of the exact numbers you want to do. Because I don't think that they price this kind of stuff super well. Like I used to do this with, and this is actually kind of what we got being booted from your way,

was like pricing the wide receiver four and five that we thought, I just thought they had wrong, like percentage wise. I think it was like the Texans guys. so like way back when and so I would do exactly this like play one under one over and it just wouldn't price the correlation all that well um because it's tough to do that it's a very like super player specific so in this case I think this makes sense I don't know if you could do carries in your way that's my only I guess concern here yeah it's a smart thought no way to go about it yeah either way you could do it could do it just on this regular SGP thing now so it could make

sense. Yeah. Anything on the receiver side, do you like obviously, you know, Paula Schuck's been chucking it around a little bit, A.J. Terrell out for the Falcons. I think there's some viability on the Saints side. And then, you know, without Granderson, I think you might have a little bit more of a clean pocket operation for the Falcons. We saw what that looks like, you know, with a healthy Drake London, you know, obviously he erupted. Again, some of these things also could very much be Packers, which I think is, it's part of it like I really do think the packers are uh are a problem so obviously drake london's in a spot where like you and i aren't chasing um into the into the 80s

which also makes like alts not super appealing right because you're going to barely get like plus one 30 or like plus 150 like it's not going to be fun tough sell um yeah anything that you like here on the uh in the passing game yeah just going through the board here there's it's it's really interesting. So like Hooper plays a little bit. And they have just kind of like a bunch of random guys who like Jehan Dodson plays a lot. But it's like just been a cardio king for the last three years basically. Yeah.

Pitts plays a ton. Fant's usage is really interesting. So I was debating on playing under on on Noah Fant earlier because the Saints like specifically decided to essentially attack with their tight ends like last week. And so they both saw a ton of targets as well as week one. But then in week two, he had like zero targets. And it was just like out there. So it's one and a half perceptions, 15 and a half yards. I don't think there's a big enough sample to draw any conclusions.

This is kind of the problem with all these guys. I mean, look at all these guys like branch, four and a half yards, Zakias, eight and a half yards. Like these Hooper six and a half yards. I like trying to find these like different things here because I think there can be an edge. Like, I mean, Bryce Lance is playing 78% of snaps in week two. And then in week three, like, I don't know, again, probably again, played a ton, 52. Yeah, 72% of snaps, three targets. It's tough.

It's a tough sweat. Yeah. It's a tough sweat. You know, with a gross one that's nice, it's Bijan in the passing game. You have, you know, Cain Ellis out. Pete Miller, their other linebacker two is dealing with a neck injury. I think he's legit, questionable. I'm really excited because I think Danny Stutzman is like a fun linebacking prospect,

but he's like a throw my nose in the pile and like beat you down. I don't know that he's like I'm going to run with Bejohn and coverage kind of a linebacker. That's what makes me really nervous. I can see Bejohn stealing outcomes in the passing game here. And again, it's very dicey. The running back stuff is tricky. But in terms of like just a consistent floor week to week versus some of these like ancillary running backs that we're hoping, bike based off of the matchup.

It gets tricky on a week-to-week basis. Bejohn just has a consistent role in the passing game. You know, running around on like 65, 70% of dropbacks with a decent target share. He's just kind of in his own tier in terms of how he's involved in the passing game. So I just think he's going to be able to get some mismatches against some poor lineback recovery situations here and could pop off. So his his usage last week was a little weird. It wasn't very, I don't know.

We have two targets, I think, something like that. On Vijon, like, yeah. Yeah, so I don't know. I was trying to look into more. Is that a Pinnix thing? Is that just like one game fluke? Because I always forget, like, his target share versus when he was with, just a variety of other quarterbacks, basically.

That was my only kind of concern about it that had me leaning, like, obviously, you know, again, under a little bit, but is, you know, not something I'm jumping to take four and a half receptions here. Pretty heavily juiced under, actually. Minest one 60, 158 at Fandul. So, but only, I mean, we'll minus 128 Pinnacle. So I don't know, maybe Fandle just a little bit off there.

Yeah, trying to grab some of that Pennix Bejean data. But yeah, anything else on the passing inside? Do like any of the quarterback specific stuff? You know, we're thinking that both, you know, are decently pass heavy, I would assume. It's interesting because that means Chuck's line is like 260. We're just assuming that an Adam Schmidt, one of our analysts brought up like a pass attempts over 32 and a half earlier than

week it's up to 36 and a half we're looking at now so that's pretty crazy but just like we kind of are assuming they're not going to be able to run the ball if they fall behind it all they're going to have to be chucking basically the entire game now I think there's some scenarios here where maybe the inverse happens right if the saints get up maybe the falcons have to chuck like we saw last week and so like pennix's lines into being way too low and so but if not I feel like the Falcons are going to have a lot of success running the ball. So it's a really tough give or take here that, like, in my opinion, depends a lot on game script and it's not super bankable.

But I don't know. I guess curious if you have any thoughts there either way. No, I think that's probably right. I think based off of game script, you probably could grab some softer live lines if you're looking. If you could find some books that are getting involved there. Yeah, because I would assume you have to go probably pretty pass heavy if this is ends up being a pro saints handicap, which is where I'm at.

So like, I don't know if it's Pennix. I'd probably go Pennix attempts over Pennix completions from an efficiency standpoint. Typically just how I would kind of like to play that. Yeah, let me see. We have, so with the on-off splits for Bijan with Pennix, with Pennix, target rate 10.1%, 19.5% of routes. it's a little higher historically without penics with kirk cousins it was like 11.4 percent um so again like not huge but not yeah not like not in pennix's favor i guess is if we were looking for a tie

burger to push this over and have it be neutral or a little bit more pennix friendly um it's been a little a little less probably better for the wide receivers he's more of a push it down the field vertical uh type of guy versus uh you know checkdowns but he's also not a big scrambler and that's those are the guys that you typically want to shy away from when we're looking at path pitching running back stuff just because we know there's kind of a correlation with the tuck and run is essentially the alternative for a lot of these guys is like check down right so that's not penics we know he's not going to be tucking and running very much yeah exactly that's why we've see his line here at four and a half or four and a half rushing yards we did get burned i think last monday on the case keeneham rushing yards one run he was right there dad run of like that dad run of a lot of of the century there and just kind of like rolled out and was able to get i think five or six yards uh so that was tough i'm not going to lie but i don't know i mean pennix coming back from the injury like it's really low but also at the same time like he just just doesn't really run all that often you know yeah that's true i think tim's got the right idea here like if you're going to play be jean

uh you probably should take alts probably chase 50 60 plus you know two and change three to one uh will probably be the way to play him anyway, right? Because he's, you know, distribution of how he, when he hits, like, he's often just going to pop off. It's going to involve, like, a splash play, right? As you say, like, you know, longest, longest reception, like something like that. I could see him getting down and, you know, paying off on that one. What is that? Yeah. That's not bad. Yeah, that's appealing to me. Yeah, like that one. Yeah, I guess I just like don't just generally have a good feel for this game because I feel like it could go a variety of directions and that is going to literally make or break every single prop, in my opinion.

Yeah. The only one that I think I would feel decent, that I feel decent amount is probably a Kamara under. I think is fine. It's going to be super hairy. He's going to be playing a ton. And if the Falcons Runny is not as good as what they have been playing, which is more than possible, if not likely, then, I mean, he's going to see eight or nine, 10 carries. So he has to be bad. like you you there's no there's no wiggle room here on like oh maybe he could be okay he just he has to be bad he's going to see not eight to i would say eight to 12 honestly he's a pretty fair range yeah i played kendry miller transparency i played 23 and a half um but i played it on like friday and i was like i didn't want to play because you know we typically don't play like monday props on uh yeah you know

on our on our show and i already had a couple of days the weekend i just was contemplating on a release but transparency i played 23 and a half there's 20 i think there are some 23 and a half still available uh yeah you can see pinnacles there there's some 24 and a half so i i'd play that too i do think though thinking through this talking through with you a little bit more the best play in that is the the kamara under 11 and a half uh attempts and that's probably the preferred and again that's even with someone who's thinking this is a pro saints game script like i'm i'm i'm in on the seats. Yeah, the minus 101.8, I think is pretty good. Also, yeah, I mean, I think this is, this is pretty decent here, especially when you consider the Falcons team too, right?

So we got, do we get all the way from three to one or is it two, just two and a half? I think it was just two and a half. That's fine. All right. Well, still, though, it's, I mean, you don't want to be betting over on a running back, like, or like the starting running back that has a very thin hold, I would say, on the grasp here in the game. getting steamed against. So, yeah, I think under 11 and a half is pretty interesting. It's just not that guy anymore. Like, you know, it's just a lot of miles on those tires.

Kenji Miller has juice. Again, dude cannot stay healthy ever. You know, so you, you know, could very much be sweating this out in-game for him to just get up every time he gets tackled. But I think he's actually pretty good at the game. You know, look good in Detroit when you got a pretty decent share too. We've had this at times in the last couple of years where he just gets this little bit of workload and pops off a little bit and then just, oh, what happened to him? Oh, no, he's he's out for the rest of the season.

Oh, okay, cool. That's that's totally awesome. So I think it's just a spot. Yeah, it was a full well lost. I mean it's a spot where he can, I can get home on, you know, 25 yards on, you know, five, six carries. So. Yeah, the only thing I wanted to look at, like you were saying, it was the alts here, right? So Bejohn, if you wanted to play alt, so like 60, 50.

you nine and a half here you got like yeah three to one that's what uh tyler we're saying plus three three 10 uh and obviously the latter's pretty insane if you you know keep going all the way up but right it up can't imagine he's an end up with a hundred but yeah around 100 hundred that'd be pretty pretty nice i love for one of the soft books to give me a danny stutzman line for tackles i'll be very interested to see how they price it or what they even line him at considering we've never had to make a start. You know, but even last year as a rookie,

his baseline tackle rate is very high. And even when he plays like a limited role, he's pretty efficient tackler. Now, his ability to cover is going to be interesting, but he very much could be in a spot where he, because of K& Ellis being out and with true 50-50 situation with Pete Werner,

like could walk into, he could walk into 100% of Snapshare. So, Kyle, Jesse Bates, I lean slightly over on Bates and Watts, but not like a bedable edge for me. They just, the numbers do lean slightly over. They're hard to separate, to be honest, because they mostly play a lot of too deep. So you don't have the benefit of like, oh, hey, Watts plays in the box more or Bates plays in the box more. And that to me is just kind of a more of a high variant outcome situation where you need to kind of get lucky on. who's on what side when the plays go down there.

So not something that I have typically like to chase unless I just show a big error on the line and we don't have that currently. So for sweat, I think they're both in play as an over, but cross our legs and hope we get a Stutzman line. Love it. That's great. Any sack stuff you're looking at or no?

You know, Chase Young is, again, continue to play really, really good ball. I have the Brandon Dolores line. is like way mispriced. My numbers really like Brandon Dolores over a half sack at like four and a quarter on draft kings. It's the interior guy. Again,

the offensive line issues for the saints I feel like are more at tackle than in the interior. But I think that's priced pretty well. I don't have an edge on the Chase Young stuff, but he's been playing some pretty good ball. I'm willing to fade. It's Daria Smith. I don't know what his, his line's probably not you know super appealing to take the under um but i think he's uh yeah he's not

play under his minus 200 yeah it's just just not playing a lot and he had some early sacks and i think it's just over inflating where he's at so um yeah born trouble some we'll answer questions what you got hit us up we'll always answer questions for the most part uh if we have time we see if we see it yeah it depends we're getting like a last minute fantasy question here by the way I play in a league where I was down 70 points and I had Ted McMill in it and Jake Bates. And on the last drive, I was down by 0.8 points. And all I needed was Jared Gough to go down there, score touchdown. I get the extra point.

I win. Did not do that. Choked completely and did nothing. So all that just to get cucked by Jared Gough was not fun. The league group, Chad, was popping off. everyone was going crazy. Like this is comeback of the century. I had reserved most of my shit talking for the end because I'm like,

there's no way that's going to happen. You know, like this is crazy. And then I kind of started chirping at the end, just like, you know, kind of pushing the guy a little bit. And of course,

as soon as I start chirping, Jared golf turns out of a pumpkin and, you know, does nothing. Takes a sack, throws a couple balls in the dirt and then, you know, game's over.

Then throws the ball 10 yards short of the sticks. Yeah. To slaw as well. So here you go. We got a fantasy question. So this is normal. my betting show, but you're probably screwed either way. But, um, yeah, you're probably screwed either way.

Yeah. Oh, I mean, I, yeah, it's really, it's really tough because I'm trying to think of like who has more like home run upside. I guess in the thought process is that like Bailey's stealing from Alave probably in a more direct way. So that's more leverage against the Alave stuff. So it would probably be probably be valet for me just in that that instance. But yeah, it's tricky. But Connor's right. It's a betting show.

I'm sorry. We play fantasy. We're not fantasy donkeys as Connor's telling a story about his fantasy. But yeah, I would go, I would go valet. I have a really good. I have a couple of big gorillas. One of them was doing really well. I was chasing.

Oh, you're all good. No worry about it. We're just giving you hard time. I was chasing a little bit. I had like the second best score of the week, but I was losing. But then I got a late Sam Leporta touchdown. And I realized that your Sam Leporta stuff was already cooked. So I didn't feel bad cheering for Lipporta touchdown late.

And I'm like, garbage time, LaPorte. We went. Yeah, they had like three catches into the fourth quarter and then just ripping. Like I was like, oh, I got a chance. You know, three catches only like, yeah. I got 10 minutes left in the game. And Jared golfed through the ball like 30 more times. So, yeah, it was tough.

All right. Well, we appreciate everyone hanging out. as always. Yeah, Kyle, I mean, breakout Kyle Pitts game. I mean, again, this could be the coverage part of the state side that I'm talking about, like 30 and a half yards. It's like nothing. It's not a lot.

So I would not be surprised. I'm not going to use my USD for that, but I understand why it's someone who wants to give a chase. So, all right. Move the line. We've listened to podcast. Move the line on YouTube as well. Come back on the Wednesday show.

Again, we'll talk about our week five plays for our circa millions. entry, talk more about what we saw there in week four. And then obviously the Friday show 3 p.m. Eastern prop drop with Slop and Connor and myself. So appreciate it as always, the thumbs up and subscribe before you take off. If you want to use Sharpsec for yourself, you should. 4.4.com slash plans. Discounts all over. Primo code, Connor 50, noon and 50 for 50% off.

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