Move The Line - Best NFL Week 6 Bets: Sides, Totals & Team Props

Episode Date: October 14, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 6 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers and matchups offer value before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan joined here as always by Connor Allen, week six flying by. Coming off of a wild week five in the NFL, Connor, how are we doing today? Yeah, doing great. It's another week. I feel like we're kind of giving that point of the season. We got buys, a lot of injury news to keep up with, and that matters a ton. So that's honestly the biggest thing here.

It's like keeping up with injuries, understanding where we're at and like how, who teams actually are at this point after five weeks of sample size. Yeah, it is a little bit harder to kind of parse through still. You know, opponents mattering so much, just very fluid. And like you said, both sides of the ball, just a ton of injuries. And I think that it really, it really does matter. We'll get those new records on a Wednesday before we really still start to get the first full injury reports and stuff. So it'll be pliable.

You said, four teams in a buy. We've got another London game with the Jags going back to back in London. you got bills going back to back in west coast time i'll see how that kind of uh susses itself out but uh we get started with the uh the thursday night game i want to bring up sharp stack too and again people need to check out sharp stack if you have not already done so you can go over to four four dot com check it out get a free seven day trial for sharp stack uh again just we'll use it today to show the odd screen as connor has up here now for us but like i mean anything you're doing in the betting space, prop betting.

If you want to use the EV tool, just kind of doing the top down thing. Sharp money tool is awesome. I mean, the prop screen is a must. I love now you click on a player. You can get ladder options in different markets. Lots and lots of different ways. You're playing on the pickum sites.

We're pulling in those as well. So lots of different ways to utilize this. So again, check it out free seven day trial over on the site. Let us know if you have any questions. You can jump in the show notes if you want to get a promo code. But really good Thursday night or Connor, Seattle and Denver with Denver catching points here at home. This moved a little bit.

We had like full three yesterday or so. We're kind of down like two and a half to take it some some money there. The Denver stuff, I mean, I don't know. Did Sean Payne just use the Davis Web Place or where the Sean Payton plays? Because they looked a lot like the Davis Web Place. Maybe it's a Bow next thing. Yeah, I don't know what happened. Maybe just didn't have enough time to prepare, but that's certainly not going to change

here in a short week. it just didn't it didn't look good didn't look much better I expected it to be a little bit better than that but yeah he wasn't throwing in the middle of the field still which seems like it's been a staple of a Sean Payton offense and now you run into

a Seahawks defense that's been playing really well for the most part overall and it's a good good defense so I struggle to see how this be this is like the Broncos bounce back spot and I kind of worry about this team a little bit offensively defensively they're still good but you've

Pat Sertan probably not playing. Hufunga did not practice earlier. And then Riley Moss Limited as well. And Pat Brian, Jonah Coleman, still on IR. So it's a really weird game for me. And there's like, like, all the unders are popping and like things that I look at on the Broncos offense. But I'm, I'm worried that we just get a weird Thursday night game where everything we've seen has been one thing. And it's like, oh, now they're playing Seattle.

And then Bonex is going to like throw up for 250 and everyone's going to go over their line. it's going to be really frustrating. Thursday nights always get wonky anyway. We've had a lot of weird island games, it feels like. We're like threatening to go to OT. Going to OT, they've just been kind of weird. Thursday nights, always short week as always a little tricky. Well, I'm kind of with you.

I do think Seattle's a little interesting now that we've moved past the three because I think that they, I think Denver really struggles to both run the football and find explosives in the passing game. Like if you can't do one of those or at least threaten to do one of them, it gets really hard. Now, Seattle's offense has been fairly uninspiring, obviously outside of anything JSN. I think you kind of made the case for that last year. I mean, at least towards the tail end of the year, they really started to get the, you know, running game going with Kenne Walker popping off late when they really started to increase his touch load.

But like kind of the group of backs that are handling things here in Seattle right now is still kind of uninspiring, which is, again, a way you've been able to have success on this Denver defense this year has been able to run the football in chunk plays. So I lean Seattle. I guess it is interesting under three now, but not something that I want to super cape up for. I mean, I'm very bullish on Denver all offseason.

And the Bonix thing is just, it's tricky. Part of it, too, is another guy, like, just doesn't seem to want to run the football. And there was a huge part of what they did late last year well. And obviously, it's coming off of, you know, pretty massive injury. but like, I don't know, he looks mobile. He looks okay. It doesn't seem like he's fighting that injury,

but just seems way less likely to like tuck it and keep it. And it's just, it's gone with their offense. And Waddle's been uninspiring. Like they really haven't been able to, you know, tap into that this year. So I don't want to, I don't know say pivot on Denver, but I feel like this is a good spot to go against him. Yeah, I agree.

I like Seattle two and a half. Bo Nix, rushing years at 16 and a half, which on drafting seems a little bit high. It doesn't have more than 10%. 10 in a single game of the season. Career low scramble rate right now. Mani Wilson 66.5 yards, again, like you talked about focusing on the ground there. We were on the receiving yards last week, barely got there.

Maybe an okay spot to go back to it, nine and a half again. Not bad. But, yeah, and then we had JK Dobbins seeing a ton of work, but just super inefficient last week against the Chargers. So did they keep going with that? Do they pivot to Harvey? Harvey's lines a little bit low. but again, it was just a really weird week all around, I think.

That's the thing. Like Denver's, they kind of need that, but you look at everything in Seattle's defense is getting healthier. They've been fantastic against the run. EPA, DVOA first and both not giving up any explosives at all on the ground or in the air. And now they're getting healthy too. They really am in worries all the way back. Some of the secondary pieces that have missed time this year, they're all back. So this is, CEL has been really good defensively, even though they've been missing starters.

pretty much every week since the start of the year. Yeah, like Seattle. Another one that's moved a little bit, again, from the three down to two and a half, is the second game here in Europe for Jacksonville. Houston's on the road there in Jack. Well, you know, in London, you know, at Jacksonville. Two and a point Jacksonville line here.

You know, I think we were thinking there'd be a little deadcat bounce with Houston last week. Part of that was going to be the opponents and they've been playing a difficult schedule and the Titans are a soft landing spot for anyone having questions. But there's also, you know, you're kind of getting Nico Collins back.

You're getting some stuff going on here. Maybe less is more by pulling David Montgomery out. It's another guy that I think we maybe missed on. I thought David Montgomery would be a nice addition here. He's been terrible and now he's out. So maybe less is more. Maybe it forces them to just kind of throw more, which is kind of what I'm thinking here because C.G. Strauss is pretty good.

Now, I don't expect we get much from Marvin Harrison Jr. But I think this is probably a better spot for him. But again, I think the Neal Collins thing is pretty big. But any thoughts here on Houston and Jacksonville and two in a row in Europe for Jacksonville? Yeah, do you think Jalen Petrie plays? I don't. Okay. I think, I mean, how much do you think that matters? I think a decent amount. Um, and he's been not as good as he's been in years past this year, but like he's a willing run stopper. They play a lot of nickel. I think they probably still play a lot of nickel. They did last week. But part of that, I think, was the fact that they were like up by 20.

Yeah. It could be the same spot. So like, Hamari Ramsey, a rookie came in and kind of took the Jalen Petrie role. I mean, that's kind of their base. The problem is their linebacker core is all injured too.

So it's not like I expect them to like pivot to some sort of like, you know, base centric defense. I think this is just who they are. Like I was trying to look at like, what do they do different with Demeco Ryan's taking on the defensive play calls? It was identical. You would have had no idea that there was a new play caller.

They ran the same stuff that they ran all last year defensively. So I don't think there's going to be. Petrie, I think, is a miss, but I don't think it's going to change too too much. Okay. Yeah, it's tough because Jacksonville's defense is far outperforming their billing. Third and defensive EPA right now. Fifth in success rate. Good against both the past and the run.

Number one in run defense right now. And yeah, without David Montgomery, you just have Woody Marks. Whatty Mark's lines are really low. But like you should see almost all the ones. work. So it's kind of a give and take here. I kind of like the Houston side in this game. I think plus two and a half or money line is pretty live at like a neutral venue.

Again, kind of just like maybe sticking with a little bit of our priors on Houston. Maybe it's Marvin Harrison. And maybe it's, you know, again, I think this defense still gives Jacksonville some trouble. So, yeah, I lean Houston here. I do too. It's actually been one of the things that Jacksonville's defense has not been great at is allowing explosives through the air. Houston's second an explosive pass.

rate. And again, that's, you know, without Nico in there a little bit, too. And since he just tried to be playing pretty well. So I think they're going to be able to maybe attack. And there's some back end, secondary deficiencies and injuries on the Jacksonville side too. So I like the three. It's moved now to two and a half, but I'm still kind of with you. I think they're a nice teaser leg. But I think I would lean Houston getting the points here too. Because again, meeting on the priors, I want to like eat some crow. I think Jacksonville defensively has obviously been up to be able to scheme some good ball up for like, I don't know, 20 games now. When I've been like, hey, a lot of it I thought was just fluky turnover-related based stuff.

But I think it's been a little bit more than that. They've been pretty good. So it'll be just to see what we get from, you know, a maturing prop market here. This is interesting. I was like, all right, well, what is C.J. Stroud's past steps? Because last week it was like 30 and a half. We're getting 35 and a half or 36 and a half. That's a lot.

I'm still lean over, but that's a lot. That's a big adjustment. For sure. But again, you're not seven point favorites against Tennessee, right? So that's, you know, game stay matters a lot. It is a big jump, though. It's a big jump. Another movement that's taken,

there's been some money here in just the last like 30 minutes or so in the Chicago and Atlanta spot. Bears are like minus two and a half, minus three even. And now we're like bears minus one and a half pretty much across the board. this total has been on the rise as well. I know our guy Hunter played this game and the total. I think he got on the right side of that because this has ballooned out a little bit and we're like pushing towards, you know, 51, 50 and a half or so.

Looks like we're going to get Caleb. At least that's what the Wednesday reports sound like. It also sounded like we're probably getting Michael Pennix, even though it's kind of a weird ending to that game last week on Sunday night with his late injury there. It just felt so inevitable. to a coming in. It's just like, oh, man, it's been not good.

But I don't know. I need thoughts on this movement moving towards the Falcon side dropping from the two and a half down to one and a half. Yeah, that is interesting because we got both quarterbacks in. I guess it was just more implied that Caleb was going to play and not as much with panic. So that's what I would assume. I think Bears,

if Caleb is playing, is a good look. Now, the problem is, and we talked about it last week, is Bears' defense sucks. I mean, there was one point in the game against the Packers last week where I think Lefleur just like very clearly saw that the bear's secondary just could not

stay with Matthew Golden and could not stay with Christian Watson and just bombed the ball down field like three to four plays in a row just play action max protect let two guys run just like as far as they can and let Jordan Love throw it and I mean they were wide open I mean this is like four steps on guys like really embarrassing uh you know like it was and you I could you watch the play developing like all right that guy is just wide open but naked. it in the end zone and yeah it was it was crazy and we talked about that last week on the show is that that's a major problem of the bears and i think another problem here is that that kind of matches up well with like how michael pennix plays like he's not a necessarily a dink and dunk quarterback he's like

just launching the ball and can heave it uh like all over and like you know maybe he struggles with like the consistency and like but is can launch the ball when when asked and so maybe they don't beat him with speed you know they don't necessarily have like a guy who's going to like beat him over the top but like Drake London is probably going to have a fantastic game here. And I guess the other question is like on the defensive side for Atlanta, Atlanta's defense continues to play pretty well for the most part. I mean, any like at this point are you buying it? We're like five games in.

Are you still not buying it? I mean, the Bears had a good defensive stretch for two or three games and we were like, this is total bullshit, you know? So I don't think it's for sure that they're good, but I don't know. I'm kind of interested. Yeah, I'm not fully buying it. But I think that there's definitely something. we said for like how they're scheming some stuff up they're getting um they're obviously doing a

really good job at getting pressure with like just some no-name jerroney's it is just kind of like a you know a rotational piece they're getting pressure from the interior the defensive line so i feel like a lot of that is is coaching related um doing it without a j terell too like their their top cover corner is really impressive um the bears seem to not really know what they want to do in the back half corner and safety. Like they had like a rotation. Now you get some injuries. Like is Tyreek Stevenson playing?

Is he sitting? Is that a good thing? That might actually even be a good thing for them. Kyler Gordon may be back. But like it's been like two years since Kyleor Gordon was a dude. And when he was back last year, teams just constantly went after him. I mean, the Packers playoff game was just like, I felt bad for Kyler Gordon. They were just literally just thrown out of me in the entire.

entirety of the game. So is he back? They need him because they have to push like Mohammed out to the outside and they have to bring Kyla Gordon into play at the slot. It felt like the Packers really wanted to get Dylan Thinaman in coverage deep one-on-one because they kept going after him and just sending like make a choice. And if you're going to end up, we're going to get someone single on on Thinaman, like I'm throwing the football. And it works. And now you get the Bears without two of their top three edge rushers in this game. It's going to be a lot of your boy, Austin Booker. because Deo is going to be out and Montez sweat is out.

And surprisingly, I mean, not super surprisingly, because one of the strengths is the offensive line. Falcons have allowed the lowest pressure rate in the league. Now they're going to get the Bears, you know, B and C team at edge rusher. So the movement from two and a half, down to one and a half towards the Falcons makes sense for me. But we're offsetting that with Kayla being back, right?

So I don't know what to make it, except I think Hunter was right to be on the over because I think the points are going to be probably plentiful in the spot. So I would lean Atlanta because the Bears Rendy's not any good either. And, you know, so Bejohn probably takes some chunks in the end. So, yeah, it's, I think the over is the right play. Marshawn Lloyd looked like, like Prime LT against them last week. You know, it was just like, and Caleb Johnson were just like bullying him. You know, it was crazy.

The defense sucks. So, yeah, I would agree. over. I can't back the Bears. Like, I think there's a reasonable chance that the Falcons keep getting pressure and that they just put Caleb under a lot of duress and that this is like not necessarily his best game. Now, we'll see. I mean, again, it's probably just a stay away for me. How about your Colts?

They're hosting the Titans. You know, this one, six and a half, seven, depending on what you're, where you're shopping. I mean, I just think these are two pretty bad football teams, to be honest. but the Titans are just never the Titans. So you could sell me on the Colts being in a nice, like I'd say bounce back spot-ish. But yeah, the Titans thing is just, it's bad, it's ugly. Any thoughts here?

Yeah, I mean, if you look at both these teams of metrics, like EPA success rate, explosive play rank next to each other, they're just in the bottom third of like every single one. outside of offensive EPA per rush, because Jonathan Taylor scored like a bunch of touchdowns, essentially. So it's really ugly. You know, it's not been pretty with the Colts overall. Even in like a relatively good match of last week,

they couldn't find a way to get it done. Like the defense is playing so poorly. And I think what's interesting is that the Titans, like obviously Kim Ward played awful last week against Houston, who we think is a good defense. He started playing over. against some of the other bad defenses he was playing against. So I don't know.

I am not, I'm not interested in the Colts, which sounds crazy, but I'm just not. I mean, they just, like something is broke, like permanently broken.

And I think that you could say the same about the Titans, but again, you're giving them seven points here. Pass. Yeah. I want nothing to do with it. So I was going to listen to your pro Colts discussion. No.

I mean, you don't have it. So you got to know when to, capitulate and I think I've like basically already capitulated. Yeah, Danny Jones stuff is not, uh, no, it's not good.

His rushing problem, by the way, is down to six and a half this week after that. I saw. Still, it's a little too low. It's a little too low. He's gone under that like seven or eight in a row.

So it's low, but, uh, it might not be too low. We'll see. Yeah, we're, it's,

it's kind of half from even where it opened last week at like 11 and a half. So I played nine and a half. I mean, again, pretty much a no sweat. Even on, you know, he had like four or five attempts.

one of them is just like a, you know, goal line dive, but low, but I don't know if it's too low. Pittsburgh's on the road in Tampa. Pittsburgh also a road favorite here. Jayland Daniels getting no respect after a road win and an island spot there against Dallas last Thursday night, which was very surprising. Pittsburgh showed a little, I don't know, a little bit of a ceiling offensively, but again, this could be, I think, indie related. But I'm not sure.

I mean, they're throwing the football a lot. They seem to have a little bit more of explosive plays here with like Jay, you know, getting more, you know, Warren in there, like Jeremy Bernard looking like pretty decent, you know, adds maybe a little bit of a speed element that they don't have. On the outside here, Tampa Bay, it's going to stop you from running the football a lot. They're still pretty solid there. But I don't know what to make of, you know, Jaylon Daniels.

But obviously the market doesn't either. they're still buying the Steelers here, two and a half. Yeah, Jalen Daniels played pretty well, I thought, you know, last week after a first start that was, you know, I would say pretty uninspiring. Last week played pretty well against a bad Cowboys defense. Now against a Steelers defense that I think has been just overall like uninspiring. They do some really stuff really well. They can get, can get pressure from time to time.

But I play to play basis, I wouldn't say that they're a good defense by any means. I mean, right now 25th in defensive success rate overall. not good. Like they're just like haven't played all that well. And so I don't know. Maybe it's gross. I kind of think the overhear is kind of interesting at 39. It's really low bar.

I would anticipate that the Steelers just throw the ball super quick. Like kind of like what we saw from Deshaun Watson against the bucks where they blitzed like a ridiculous amount but couldn't get home because Deshaun Watson was just like getting the ball out in half a second. And that's like what Aaron Rogers does really well. So I think that passing wise he's going to have a lot of short compliance. which, you know, again, Jeremy Bernard has higher props this week than like Cortland Sutton, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas, like how the world has fallen in five weeks that a rookie guy who was like wide receiver five on the depth chart is higher props than all those guys is crazy. But here we are.

And so yeah, I think this game could be like, I'm not going to say it's going to get like hot or anything, you know, like crazy. But I don't know, like 24 points for the Steelers. 20 points for the for the bucks wouldn't be all that surprising i like the the quick passing take here uh for the steelers offense it's probably their best path i mean they've been i mean every quarterback who was talking about this it's not like an anomaly like oh this quarterback struggles under pressure like they all struggle under pressure um yeah you know that's why uh teams try to get pressure but it's a pretty pretty significant drop off from a clean pocket EPA you know for rogers versus him

getting pressure. He's just super not into it at all. But I think the one way to avoid that is to get the ball out quickly. So probably lower radar, not yak type stuff, higher, you know, higher completion percentage because he's trying to get it out because, you know, Tampa Bay is going to blitz. That's, you know, they're not necessarily in like the Flores class. He's kind of shifted, especially what he did last week to New Orleans. It's kind of shifted into an entirely new stratosphere in terms of like the rate in which they blitz. But historically, you know, you would have always had Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay kind of in that second here. I imagine they bring the heat here.

It's just a matter of how successful they are. But like, Bucky Irvin looked good. They were able to run the football. Like, I don't know. I'm kind of back and forth in this one. So if you have a strong take when it comes to selection time for our millions picks, I could be swayed either way here. So not particularly, probably lean Steelers, but not particularly.

Okay. Another one that we need to see what happens on the injury side. is Baltimore on the road in Cleveland getting, you know, reports again as we record on a Wednesday before the injury news comes out. We don't know if it's going to be, you know, who's going to be a quarterback for Baltimore? Is Lamar take its naps or we're running it back with the pro bowler again, who looks pretty good, you know, don't want to hate. The one thing that I think is going to be interesting here, we also on the defensive side for Cleveland have to find out what Carson Swessinger's situation is again like uh yeah interior like middle linebacker not a big deal i think it's going to matter

a lot uh you've been able to really run the football as always uh with baltimore and we've given up a ton of explosives actually the the cleveland defense even with cars and swesterger is giving up the most for the highest rate of explosive runs so far this year um yards before contact is really really high uh you know you just have you add lamar back to that his threat running the football and you have, you know, Swessinger either out or a little bit limited. I just have a hard time thinking Baltimore doesn't have a lot of success running the ball here.

Yeah, I, so the problem with, with Lamar is like they said he was going to play and then he didn't practice today. And so I'm watching the report because I really like Baltimore here. I think that this is a great, like, sell high spot on the Browns. I mean, I wouldn't say that they like played particularly well last week. Deshaun Watson took eight sacks, kind of saw like old Deshaalette. Sean come back after like a game or two against bad defenses. He played really well.

Then, you know, started playing against another defense like in the jets that just blitz his face off and, you know, got a lot of pressure. He could sack a ton, struggled. I think this is another game where like the problems can compound. And like we have just like a massive Ravens win. So it sucks because I think in the contest, if we don't get Lamar, we're going to lose some CLV. I think that I will be betting them in that.

instance with Huntley if it gets closer to like three-ish you know that would be awesome if it's lamar i'm comfortable up to seven i think okay i'm good either way like i thought helped me look fine um yeah i they get the ball to say flowers a lot like i would want them to do they ran the football fairly well um it looked like they went away for for for a little bit in like the second half there and then overtime was just a ton of derrick henry um and that seem to work. Yeah. I mean,

I'm with you. Mostly, it's a combination of things. Like, I also just want to continue to, to find ways to short this, this Watson revival or whatever we want to call this. It's not been good.

They've won football games and that will mask a lot of things. And at the end of the day, that's the goal is to win football games. But like, they just had some like random situational stuff. And I think it's been a little bit of opponent driven. Because really any of the underlying metrics, any of the things that we would value or lean on in terms of,

of like sticky stats or things that we really need to show up week and we got. This is a bottom three offense and basically everything. Early down EPA, 31st. Success rate overall, 32nd. Third down conversion rate, 30 second. Red zone touchdown rate, 30 second. Points per drive. 31st.

I mean, they're bad. They're bad at everything. 31st and rush EPA. 31st and rush DVOA. Passing EPA, 31st. I mean, these are all, there's 32 teams in the league. This is bad. This is not very good.

Now, I know they've won a bunch, probably without Casey Concepcion here. I think he's in the concussion protocol as well. He got lit up by Minka, who did like, he knew he hit him. He knew it was kind of dirty. And he's like, what? Like, it was, yeah, it looked like they were like almost going to fight a couple of plays before. So it felt a little bit extra.

That was not pretty. You don't like to see that. But like, yeah, this Cleveland thing is the house of carts. And, yeah, one of a short. it. What's interesting is that Shadir Sanders hired an agent for the first time. Yeah. Um, which in my mind means one of two things is that he needs like, like things are coming to a head quickly, right? So either gets put in and plays or he's getting traded. Like that's like, basically he's going to like use the agency to like request trade and like negotiate and figure out

where to go. Like that's, it's one of the two things. And he's, that's like essentially what in my mind seems like what he's forcing to happen. Which is dumb. Where's your best path to play? you're going to go be a backup somewhere else. For sure. This is the next spot. I mean, you're going to go to Arizona and going to get spot starts over Carson Beck. That's probably not happening. He's been there and getting in their system all year.

Like right, you're behind the eight ball there. Your best shot at playing time is to stay in Cleveland and wait for the shooter drop on, you know, another eight sack, three, four turnover game. You know, Tom Munkin gets pissed and like, yeah, they're probably still. in it or they can they can win that game and like just at a certain point it's going to kind of fold in on itself so yeah i mean you have like a really so you have like the ravens game here which i i think they lose pretty handily they the problem is they have a titans game the game after if they lose that that see that's the problem is that deshaun can play pretty well i would guess against the titans and then you have steelers saints texans like raiders like those are all a stretch of

much tougher teams that like i think the browns are almost certainly going to lose lose. So it's interesting because it felt really clear that week two, if week two went poorly, that Deshaun was not going to be part of the program long term. And now because he won, whatever, two games in a row, that it kind of like gave him a little bit longer of a leash, unfortunately. So I'm interested to see it. Again, like a terrible, terrible performance here could make things move a lot quicker. Let's get it. Let's get it this week. Sounds like we will have the ravens on the card one way or the other. And I think so. I think that's the right, right play.

Another one I wanted to cave up for is a little bit harder now because we've moved a little bit to seven and a half. I thought maybe we'd be six and a half or maybe at least seven is the Patriots hosting the Jets. Looks like we probably, I think this is a little bit of why the markets moved a little bit, is it looks encouraging for A.J. Brown. The fact that they played as well,

and again, Drake May was awesome on Sunday against the Raiders. And really like Josh McDaniels, I think had his best game in a very long time. Like they had a couple of different, you know, a couple. Like they ran somewhat of a unique design that we haven't seen very much.

And it was like, it felt like their base offense with like this like three, four wide on one side. And they almost used like the tight end group to like add a little bit of support in the offensive line. So you had Drake May with a ton of time. These guys like the tight ends were like chipping and just kind of like releasing out. So just kind of be like, you know, a little bit of a dump down. option for him. They were sending like they were doing that and like mixing in wheel routes

and running slants and just a lot of different unique looks and let Drake kind of cook and hone in on one side of the field and he was throwing dimes. There was a really I thought well executed game plan and looked a little bit different than what we've seen early in the year. So scheming up a little bit more protection and vertical passing game that only gets more interesting with AJ Brown back. Some other injuries too. You to see if you know, Romandre is probably good to go and gets a big workload with Trayvion out. Looks like Gonzo's back. That's a big piece of it for me too.

So definitely New England or nothing for me, but any thoughts here on Jets, Pat's. Yeah, I was super impressed. Like just like that in England's back, right? Like missing a ton of guys, Will Campbell banged up. You know, like there's a lot of different like issues that they were having. Henderson didn't finish the game.

And throughout that, they still played their best game of the season probably. So I don't know. super impressed there. I think that they're kind of turning the corner. And this Jets team, I think that they have their number here. You know, I think that the, all the, for all the reasons you mentioned here, um, again, also like, we wanted to back the Jets last week, but, like, just to fade the Browns, but like couldn't really do it, I think in the end. Um, I just don't think they're very good either, to be honest. Like, I think their defense is a lot of problems. I think

their offense is just very much fine. Again, when you don't have Bruce Hall, you've just of Garrett Wilson, A.D. Mitchell is still uncertain. It looks like Kenyon Sadiq entered the concussion protocol. So basically, he's looking at Gary Wilson. And that's about it. I was going to get the Gonzo treatment. And again, it doesn't mean you won't win and get a bunch of, you know, you can get one-on-one man-to-man coverage like that.

Like, things happen. But, like, it's just a lot easier to, to, like, let Gonzo shadow and give him help over the top when you don't feel like anyone else has a real threat to beat you. And then Pats have done a good job getting pressure as of late the last couple of games. You're seeing Gino takes sacks at a pretty high rate. Even though David Bailey was awesome last week,

and he was. And he's been really good. I think there's a lot to do with the Brown's offensive line. And more so, like the Brown's offensive line's not been terrible. It's been Deshaun. He still holds the ball too long. Still takes sacks at too high of a rate. We've actually seen the jets have the worst quick pressure rate in the league.

So your path to beating New England is pretty clear in how you need to kind of slow down Drake May is get a ton of pressure. and take advantage of the offensive line. If you can't really do that very well, your path is a little bit trickier. So we've seen him like happened last week with a nice pocket operating pretty cleanly and then, you know, getting it done.

So paths are nothing for me. Saints are on the road in New York. Saints are shortish road favorites here, one and a half or so. 45 and a half is the total. Kind of stinker performances for bowl teams last week. I mean, Tyler's stuff was, I mean, like 91% blitz rate in the first half or something crazy.

And they just couldn't do anything. Like, they couldn't do anything. You would think, like, at a certain point with a three and out, like back to back three and outs, you got blitzed every single time. You'd be like, okay, we got to do something a little bit different. They couldn't. And they can't run the football. Nothing.

Nothing. I don't know if like the Giants are a nice landing spot. I don't want to overreact to the bad saint stuff and think it was like, Minnesota was, I think is playing a little bit better. offensively and like the defense as we know is, is crazy. But, uh, I don't want to back James at all. I don't really know that I want to.

I don't know what to make of this one. I will say I thought that his arm looked a little bit better. It's like kind of like the last, like it started to get like back towards normal James where he's starting to sling it, have a little bit more oomf left. Uh, because the first couple weeks it was like a, it was not look good.

Those he kind of found his rhythm there. So I don't know because like, if you gave me this line a couple weeks ago, I'd be like a smash for the Saints, right? It would be like, all right, this is like one of the best bets of the week for sure. And now I'm kind of like, well, it's a little bit more tough.

Like you don't have most of your running backs. You don't have most of your, like Jordan Tyson isn't coming back yet. The defense is like, you know, struggling and as some players missing. So I don't know. I mean, honestly, I'm not sure that Tyler Shuck can overcome that.

But now again, And the Vikings are a really good defense. The Giants have like nowhere near that type of caliber. So I don't know. I'm torn on it to be honest. I think if we wanted to go Saints, I think it's the right side. But it would be quite sweaty. It would be quite sweaty.

Let's see where the market sits here. And what we get in the release from Circa, see what that number is. It's going to be less than three. So it's pretty, it's pretty interesting. I do think I kind of agree with what I think your sentiment is. is probably Saints or nothing for me. But it doesn't feel super good. But again,

we have not a ton of conviction and we have, you know, two fewer games with the buys. So, yeah, maybe this team's going to run the football very well. The offensive line,

especially on the saint's side, has been disappointing. Injuries there, that's a problem. So, yeah, it's kind of tricky. All right,

Carolina is on the road in Philly. It's just crazy to see this. Carolina road favorites in Philly. That's just how much this Philly thing is kind of spiraled here pretty quickly. Carolina coming off of a bye, Philly coming back from obviously being in Europe and having a really bad late loss there. I kind of like the Panthers. I would like to know how healthy they are. I would really kind of prefer Jalen Phillips being healthy for Carolina to add to the pass rush.

that would help a little bit. But for the most part, I think Carolina gets some offensive linemen back maybe two this week, which is helpful. You're probably going to be able to run the football a little bit. Jahad Campbell's getting benched kind of with Philly or at least like kind of lost his like full-time job. Like he's been a real disappointment.

I thought he was going to be a really good player for them. And he's, things are just kind of spiraling there. They have injuries. I don't know who's playing at safety for Philly. they're on like maybe safety four they think Kenny Kenny Moore who used to be like a long time slot corner for the Colts has been basically out of the game for the last year or so

they signed him to the practice squad they elevated him and he ended up having to play safety snaps for the most part in the second half of the last week's game yeah I don't know what they're I don't know what they're doing kind of like Carolina yeah I don't blame you if you cover their names and just look at like the metrics yeah it's very clearly Carolina is like the better team, the team that's played better so far this season,

basically across the board. Now, I will say, like, Philly was massive underdogs against Jacksonville, crazy, everything going against them, kept that game really close, should have probably won against a much, I think a better probably Jacksonville team than Carolina. The week prior than that against the Rams, they could have easily won as well. Like, it was, again, a really close game. Kind of was like a last meltdown there that resulted in that. So like I worry that maybe we've overcorrected too much.

It's fair. Because they've almost now beaten two certainly like playoff contenders or like Super Bowl, you know, favorites there in the Rams. And now we're getting them at home against the Carolina team. It's tough because it's like you're trying to catch the falling knife, right? like where do you where do you reach your hand out and try and grab it um i'm not sure that this is the spot i'm just like i'm not sure i'm not sure on either side i guess because i think that this is this might be the spot to try and grab philly and cover your eyes but i don't know i'm not sold on it yeah there was a couple of things in that game than uh jacksville philly game or like jacksiville really

could have yeah they they shut this is a foot a couple times and that like like the end of a half thing where they definitely should have come away with points. Did not, you know, bad clock management. There's a couple other situations like that too. So I get it. It does feel, I mean, it does feel like it could be an overcorrection. It does feel like probably the right time to buy low because the market sentiment on, on Philadelphia is at an all-time low.

It just is a spot too where like, these Philly fans are awful. Again, this is, sorry, you were the worst sports fans. And I'm a Boston sports fan, which, again, does speak to my bias and I will own that piece because again we have been, you know, rivals at times, both, you know, more so in the NBA and obviously some Super Bowls and some playoff games, but like even when it's good in Philly,

these are miserable people, miserable. So this goes bad early, like a three and out in the first drive. The Carolina gets the ball, they score. Philly gets the ball, they go three and out. This fan base is instantly agitated, booing. Yeah. And like, I don't say that Jalen Hertz isn't like

full-on like Tyler front-runner, but the body language changes there. The vibes get really bad. And this gets really like, just gets ugly quick. So there is maybe a time to buy Philly or maybe they won't be, but if there would be, it would be now. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I don't want to keep up too hard for Carolina.

I just, I like the spot. Again, if they do get a good injury report, they're obviously going to not get a great injury report on the defensive side. They're going to be without their starting quarterbacks, which they were against Detroit at home. and they won. And it's not like they played really particularly well, but they able to get pressure and, you know,

make some good plays. And again, they ran the football well and controlled the ball. And yeah, I don't know. I'm going to wait and see. I want to see what the injury report is. It's really tough.

It is very tough. I don't think we're going to be making a case for the Rams or the Cardinals, for example. I mean, that's 12 points, 13 points in some spots, be interested to see where we're at 51.5 is the total. You know, this Arizona thing feels like Carsonbacks coming at some point. That's how bad it's been.

I don't know. I mean, taking double digits in the division probably seems like a good process bet, just not one that I really have any interest in at all. Yeah, this is like one of those games where they'll keep a close for the entire game and then lose by 20 somehow. Yeah. you know when it comes down to it and you'll be sweating uh the entire game it's Arizona just continuously finds ways to just be non-competitive and then also randomly like win

win a game or just like beat a team and and or keep something close they did the same thing as last year with Jacoby was on things were clicking from the beginning some games he's just a garbage time hero and they you know backdoor covers um more often than not it's the latter um And so I'd probably lean towards that being the case here. 12 and a half's a lot. The Rams are very clearly a better team. But this Cardinals team is just not one that I love betting big spreads against, to be honest, just because they have that weird fighting them that they can,

I mean, they have good players. We talked about it from the preseason. Like they have some good players. They just are poorly run and have also a lot of very bad players. Not like the dolphins who, when they're, you know, backs against the wall, like they got a miracle, like last minute drive to push. you know what I mean like not even fully covered just to push so yeah and then that was like worst case scenario

with like all these different like fumbles and teams not taking advantage of it like it was it was crazy so I just don't think I think they have a lot a little bit more juice so I'm worried about taking the Rams here yeah I'm not super excited about that either I again if we had a hard time finding a fifth But the ramps are in a spot where like at least they're not like looking past the Cardinals. They can't afford to. They've lost, you know, a bunch of games and they have, you know, a really tough division. And now, you know, have the Niners kind of cooking out ahead of them.

So they have to come in and they can't come here. I don't think and really play with their food. They have to come here and really take care of business. And I could see them just absolutely shulacking the Cardinals here. But to your point, like this could be a 17 point. lead in the fourth quarter and here's Jacoby reset and you're like a son of a bitch they're could have backdoor me here yes but i also think it could be that drive could be when they're trailing by 24 uh and then you're still okay because like the cardinal's defenses has been

really porous um it'll do really anything well you give up explosives at a huge rate they don't stop the run um yeah i mean obviously it's rams or nothing for in my opinion um um um But I understand why someone just processed bet and be like, hey, I'm just taking double digit points blindly. It's the NFL, especially in the division. But Carders will not find their way into our card this year. No. All right.

The bills are staying out west. They obviously played on Monday night against the Rams. And now, I don't know, I don't even see what the details are. Do they stay in L.A. and then go on like Friday to Vegas? Or do they just go straight to Vegas? And they're there for five or six days. That seems like a really bad decision.

But who knows? I've heard Josh Allen talked about it being a business trip. Oh, I've seen a lot of business trips go poorly with five days in Vegas. You know, you and I spend some time on Fremont Street. Yeah. A couple weeks of gots. Business plans go really wrong on Fremont Street. It doesn't take much to go poorly, especially if you're, I don't know, a bunch of 25-year-olds that have, you know, million-dollar contracts.

who knows. But we didn't see here. We've moved a little bit. There were some four and a halfs. Now we're basically five and a half everywhere on the bill's side. Yeah, this one is really interesting because I think we were on the Rams last week. And I mean, probably should have at least pushed, I think, there with, you know, our fat kicker getting cut and struggling there.

And so that was brutal. But, I mean, my overwhelming takeaway was honestly that the bills just played really well. They played really well offensively. They were able to expose the Rams. And we see this Raiders team that we, I just talked up last week, just lay a total egg, you know, in New England. Can they bounce back at home against the Bills? I don't know.

You know, that's kind of tough because this Bills team has been all over the place. Like their defensive line is good, but their secondary is a ton of questions. And I think Kirk Cousins will be able to take advantage of that. The amount of times we just saw like a Puka slant or a Pooka out or anything like that, like Brock Bowers might just catch like 20 balls again like against against this this uh bill's team because he had cushion when he didn't have cushion didn't matter part of that was puka being good part of that was he was just wide open like that was literally like all right we'll get you want to give us six yards we'll take six yards that's fine uh and so that was basically what the whole game plan

was i think that the rators can do something similar here so the line seems short at first glance but i kind of think that this game is going to end up being fairly close okay um yeah I mean, you can't the bills, this is the, you know, the, the very clear Josh Allen MVP case is that there, he's going to, nothing's coming to save this bill's defense. It's not like they have a bunch of injuries. They have, you know, former first round pick corners losing their job, just because they get, they're getting outplayed. They have lineback and core that cannot cover, you know, me in a phone booth. It's just really, it's really, really poor. This is kind of like my Caleb-Alarms or case for a defensive rookie of the early because I'm like, hey, like Dorian Williams, like multiple, you know, years of like, they just don't want this guy on the football field because you can't cover.

He tackles everyone at a very high rate, which I love, but he can't cover anybody. And we saw that, you know, exposed over the middle of the field. And now you're going to get Brock Bowers who literally just starts getting, it's just getting trick like a wide receiver and really aligning like a wide receiver a lot too. They just use, you know, Michael Mayer as their actual tight end and Brock Powers gets moved around as if he's, you know, a slot wire receiver won. So I'm interested to see what Buffalo's answer is to that

because they don't seem to have one on the roster. So maybe the over is the play. Yeah, it could be interesting. I'm interested to see what happens with like the low, and the stay of being on the West Coast for the back-to-back weeks. Things are bad for the Chargers. Man, and we saw this was, the writing was on the wall here, especially when they had that like even week one loss.

And then you know, to lose week two, Arizona, it's like, oh, this is, this is bad. And then just thinking he was going to be bad and then they'd get, you get whooped by a really tough schedule. But no, they've just done what they typically do, which is just compile an insane amount of injuries on top of an insane amount of injuries. And now you have somehow been able to run back the offensive line situation that you had last year, which seemed impossible. But we're here. This Chargers offensive line is insane. Now they're on the road against Kansas City coming off of a buy. Kansas City is laying eight and a half.

Yeah, it seems almost unfathomable that we would have gotten to this point. To be honest, that only five, six weeks in before the season. But we're here. It's another one where you strip the names and you're like, oh, this should be like 12 and a half. To be honest. Like it's, I mean, they're dead last. EPA per play, their bottom four in success rate.

Like their defense has not been playing all that well. You know, the EPA per play, they're fine. But if you look at some of the other metrics, they're not very good. And so I think this Chief's team is just going to have, I mean, especially coming off a buy. Remember the was the old Andy Reid coming off a buy thing. Absolutely. Way back went for a long time. I haven't checked updated numbers on that.

But again, you give them time to prep and good things usually happen. so especially given all the injuries like the injury the injury report is just insanely long like i don't even want to read off all the names we just everyone everyone good on their team outside of justin herbert is injured cv s receipt um i'm just trying to think like how do you move the ball if you're the charges here that's yeah that's the problem is it like i just don't see this feels like a lot but i also just don't see the chargers scoring a lot of points the Chief's defense is not a lot of explosives, really through the air, or really just at all. Their run defense has been awesome, and we know the Chargers run offense has been just brutal.

And you have the team that's top three in pressure rate against the team that is allowed a top three pressure rate. And you're going to have Spags blitzing from the second level. It's just, it seems really bad. So like why would the chiefs not just like bring the house and play man like basically every play? I mean like who's going to get open? No, no one. Like Trey Harris. I mean, he's even playing.

He's not even though he's going to be out. Yeah, he's going to be out. I mean, I don't think he's going to play or if he does, he's going to be injured. They can't run the ball all that well with what's his name Hampton. They basically are giving up on him. It seems like. Yeah. It's just such a.

And all the chief's defensive metrics against the run have been fantastic. They've been really, really good. And on the other side, they're going to be able to run the football. You know, they're a top five rushing offense. And you've been able to get, I mean, the charges are 30th and miss tackle rate. That bodes well for, you know, for Kenneth Walker in space. So there's just a lot of signs here that made me think that the chiefs end up on our card. Yeah.

Yeah, I think it's probably the right move. All right. Sunday nighter Dallas. This is supposed to be the Micah Parsons game with Dallas on the road in Green Bay. Micah still seems, I don't say a ways away, but we're not opening the practice window. We're not really close. It doesn't seem like it. You know, obviously the Packers showed some life with the explosive passing game against the Bears.

I think that is, you know, a combination of both. I think that that is really the success of what, you know, love can do. And you mentioned kind of these two weapons that can go out and get it done. That's a bad matchup for this current iteration of the Dallas defense as well. But I also think that Dallas can go punch for punch here. So our total being, you know, upwards of 52 and a half, 53 and a half makes a ton of sense here too. It should at least be a fun, entertaining island game to watch. Any thoughts here on Dallas Green Bay?

Yeah, it's tough because I want to bet Dallas here. But I also know that Green Bay is going to expose exactly what you saw with Chicago. So, and I don't remember. really have a clear path of like, oh, they can just do this or there's a way around this. Because I don't really think there is. And so that's kind of the problem is like maybe they slow it on the run. Maybe. You know, like that's like they don't have, they haven't really been good at that all that good either. Tied for 21st in EPA per rush defensively. Um, but that's like, then their passing game still gets exposed. So I don't know. It's kind of probably a stay away for

me, lean over. Um, games will be a lot of fun. Yeah. I think it's going to get fun. fantasy game fun for you know over props probably um Connor will find some some stinky unders in there I'll find under somewhere in there you know cave on turpin under you know six and a half or he has something something just really really stinky but uh yeah I think it's a it's a it's a spot where I think we should have some some scoring back and forth I mean Dallas defense continues to be a disappointing we'll see I mean Joey Porter being out last week didn't help them at all I think in terms of what they want to do in the back half we'll see if it was just an illness and he should be back.

But this Green Bay passing offensive, they're allowed to keep Jordan Love clean is going to be continuing to be like this at times. Now, you still have questions about their ability to run the football or to defend. I think you're going to see more punch back from the Dallas offense that we saw from whatever the Bears are trying to do.

Monday Nighter has the commanders on the road in San Francisco. I mean, no reason to break it down at this point if you're watching the show on Wednesday or Thursday, you've probably at some point. I've heard about what happened with Washington at the end of the game there on Sunday, which is absolutely egregious.

Feels like multiple people should lose their jobs for that, but there was some six and a halfs at open on Sunday night, which I jumped into. It felt like this was going to get to like eight and a half or nine. We're still like seven and a half or so on the nineer side. We might get Nick Bosa back too.

for the Niners, which is pretty interesting. So Niners are nothing for me. I just don't feel like I have an appetite for even taking this, you know, more than a touchdown Washington side right now. Yeah, I don't mind the Niners here. I think that's probably the right side. Again, all the metrics massively slanted towards San Francisco. Like, yeah, they keep finding ways to win even with like, you know,

picking up more and more injuries, both the back would be awesome. And on the Washington side, like Diggs didn't play. Even, you know, again, Terry McGorne played, but wasn't full health. Just like it was pretty ugly for the most part to be exactly what I thought it was going to be. He was running plenty. So, you know, again, if that's, I'm San Francisco. I'm trying to figure out a way to spy Jane Daniels and then kind of make him pass because

I'm not sure I fully believe in this passing game still. And the running game was still kind of a mess. So it's, yeah, for me, it's San Francisco, just like a way, way, way, way. better team at this point. Yeah, just some glaring matchup stuff when you just kind of tailor to tape it and you're just like, wow, this is, how would you not be on San Francisco? And again, I think part of this too, this being in an island spot, when we actually get to an hour, 30 minutes before kick, it's just any casual money that's out there.

It's like, oh man, like, Niners are going to keep the crap out of them. Like, this is a thousand percent moving. And I, you know, we'll probably be insulated on that on the, you know, the, you know, the millions picks, but I do think if seven and a half is, is probably going to evaporate. Now, I know we're currently sitting in a spot where like we lean closer to seven that we do seven and a half. I just think you're going to get a decent amount of money here in the next, you know, a couple days comes in.

Yeah, I mean, if you wanted to take seven and a half or even six and a half at Novig, you could take minus 133 on the Niners. That's, which pretty palatable, I think. Yeah. Yeah. It's just a lot of bad stuff going on on the commander's side. So all right. That doesn't. Anything else for the people before you're out?

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Check it out. All right. Hit the thumbs up before you take off. Again, move the line. We'll listen to the podcast. Move the line on YouTube. I will be back with High Slop on. Friday for Prop Drop. So appreciate it for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time.

Thanks, everybody.