Move The Line - Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 23, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen welcome John Hyslop back to Move The Line for a full breakdown of the NFL Week 7 player prop market. The trio discusses their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props across the slate, using projections, matchup data, and Prop Drops to identify the numbers and prices that stand out before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome the move the line, prop drop drop show. Week 7, Connor Allen back in the house. John High Slop here is always coming off of what I'm sure was an electric night at bowling. Decent Bears Pats game. Connor had boots in the ground there. Welcome back. What did we got pretty close to not letting you back in the show last week. Slop pulled his weight.

I let us down a little bit. It was my first losing week on the show last year. But, you know, we're debating whether or not what to do. Like, do we like Connor back in the show if we hit the parlay. We almost have to do that. I wouldn't blame you, to be honest. If you hit the first ever show parlay in its entirety, you know, we've hit a couple like, I don't know,

like some people have hit some watered down versions or like, you know, hit four out of the five, whatever. If you hit the entire one on the show, I mean, I might have to just self-band. Like at that point, you know, I would self-exclude. Be a team guy. You got to be a team guy in a situation like that. Open up your Friday afternoon.

Be nice, though, you know. I wouldn't want to. to be anywhere else this on Friday afternoon, to be honest. This is, this is, this is my favorite show the week, you know. To be fair, we kept the tight slop. We went five legs. You know, I thought it was a good plan. Maybe it's a plan for us moving forward. You know, we kind of merged the play in there. So yeah, I don't know. We can get spicy. Like I was on craft. We were bullish on the Green Bay passing offense. I had played Golden the week before. Slop was on Golden. So we just kind of We went all in on the golden play.

So I think we had some cohesion in today's show as well. Connor and I have a joint play. Slop and I have a joint play. I think the vibes are pretty high here in Week 7. Oh, yeah. I'm pretty good about it. Slop, what did we roll last night? Do we have a good night of bowling?

All right. So I'm working on some stuff. I've learned a lot in that league. Last year I had zero handicap. Right. When it got to the playoffs, that was an issue. All right, because, you know, these guys, they all got handicaps. You know what I'm saying?

Like, they're like, they're getting like 200 pens, bro. Some teams get 300 pins to start the game. Yeah. Guys, so we got to, like, boost up our handicaps. So a lot of people call it sandbagging. I call it T-bagging. Because, like, sandbagging sounds like you're cheating. Tea-bagging just sounds like your party.

And you know what I mean? So that's the way I kind of, we kind of do it. Well, last night it got kind of rough. We lost the first game, but then we still need to win a couple. So what you got to do is you got to kind of just find your strike. fall out of nowhere, which I did. But yeah, it was electric, dude. It was like, we took six.

So six and two. It was good night. A lot of Budlights. Or no, I'm sorry, Mick Ultras. Mick Ultras. Yeah. You know, a lot of those. Speaking of joints, I mean, there was a couple.

It was just a good night. Good night. Fun was had by everybody. I'm ready to be here now. I was at a wedding last weekend and they had Mick Ultra Golden. So it was like a little bit heavier Mick Ultra, but not too heavy. So I think it was like 95 calories instead, but it had a little more flavor, a little more juice. It was up in Milwaukee.

So, no, sorry, Minneapolis, Minneapolis. I feel like that's just a waste, bro. Because the whole part of Mick Ultra is you can drink a thousand of them. You know what I mean? That's why I liked it. No one's drinking that shit in taste. Yeah. Like, I felt like I could drink a thousand of these still.

but it was like a little bit more flavorful. It was like, I'm not sure that I'd want to drink a thousand of those, but like just like, it's something good to mix it up with, you know, like have a couple of Mc Ultras, a couple of goldens, then a couple more ultras. Then a maybe some shot, you know, it's a good night. But like it's more of a, if you're getting a Mick Ultra Miller Light, something like that, you're not really looking for taste. Like taste has nothing to do with your decision. It is the fact that, hey, I'm going in today. there's going to be a lot of these and they all can't be 8% beers.

So let's go down to 4% let's, you know, take the governor off. Don't tell anybody how many you had and you know what I'm saying? Just move on with your day. In my, in my young 20s, I learned pretty quickly that I was just like not a fancy beer guy.

So like, you know, all my friends would be like, oh, it's going on these like brewery tours and like do all this stuff. And I'm just like struggling through it. I'm like, this shit is ass. Like let me give me like a cocktail or a light beer. I was like, I don't know. like this at all. I keep trying it, like expecting to one day wake up and be like, oh, I love this

triple IPA that was, you know, bast and something. You're like, you know, it always just tastes like ass to me. So I'm just like, why would I drink this? There's only a couple I like, to be honest with you, but it's not because they're too strong. We had tree house right down the street now. Last Saturday we went there. It's like one o'clock in the afternoon. And we go there to meet a friend. We're going to have a beer, maybe two, and then go about the rest of the day, because we still weren't even done with the shit. Like, we weren't ready to hang out. yet. Dude, there's like 9% beers. And I'm looking at these people. I'm like, dude, how are you guys drinking this shit right now? It's 1 o'clock in the afternoon? Like, what do you think like in

literally two hours and be peeling you off the floor just because you're too strong? So I went like a 4% at a great time. I had two of them left, one about my day, nothing was wrong. Yeah, but yeah. So I'm definitely, you keep the IPAs. Like I said, I'll have one here and now. I'll probably have one later today, only because I'm having one. Yeah. Last thing before we dive into the plays here, sorry to derail this with maybe, you know, fringe alcoholism. But this is always how we started to show.

The people want it. They're used to it. Like, we did multiple times. Who said that? 15, 20 minutes before we got to a pick. So we're fine. Yeah, which person said that? We're looking good.

Patrick's in. Yeah. No, we're great. Fancy boys. I don't know. We're not fancy boys. No, definitely not. Donnie,

you ever... You ever rip cutwaters? You heard of those before? Yeah, the tequila ones? They're kind of gross, but like sometimes you actually like... So obviously like the whole new fat is like the little seltars, tequila's that are like

four and a half percent, pretty low calorie, really good. I love that. Like those are great. They're like good to mix up, especially the ones that aren't too sweet. The problem is sometimes then like you're out and about and you pick up like a cut water kind of mixed in there and it's like 12 percent, 12 and a half percent. Just knocks you on your head. I remember now.

All right. So that was Calhoun from the chat we're in. Yeah. I think that's his shit. And like he was signing up on that. So I got some. And I drank two of them while I was grilling burgers. It was a Friday.

I'll never forget. It was like a couple of years ago. It was a Friday afternoon. And I was grilling burgers. I drank two of those before I looked. I was like, God damn, man. You don't kind of fuck up. Yeah.

I looked at him, I'm like, oh, no, like, these aren't, this isn't like beers. Like, these are like full on, there's like, dude, what's like 12%? Dude. Three of those is nine beers. Like, you know, that's like, oh, man, dude, like, I just ruined my day. You know what I mean? Because like that was a problem. So definitely check the APB on all your alcoholic beverages.

That's the, um, yeah, responsible. The message for today's show. I love that. Didn't know this. You're supposed to cut them with water. That would definitely make sense. Also, what's up? Oh, are you?

That would make sense. I don't know if that's real. I'm pounding them. I was like, God damn. I'm feeling like a little bit drunk, dude. Like they wanted to go get ice cream. And I was like, man, I don't think I can drive, dude. Oh, man.

Also, shout on Ali. Ali right now, one of our analysts, 10 to know right now and plays that he's released in the Discord. So Ali, also for somewhere in England, I think, Manchester maybe. I don't remember exactly. All I'll have to remind us. But love this.

Got to throw a. floater in the high noon surf side that feels like it'd be up noon in zalley maybe some tequila tossed that in there that'd be great i just like sip of tequila so like you cut water you got my attention a little bit um uh sun cruisers i was out you know out in new england we're not dude don't go to the sun cruiser there's they're awesome and that's the problem kids like that is the problem no dude like i like over the summer and i say no you drank 12 yeah it's like oh shit dude like I now people are asking quite like your wife's asked quite like hey you don't have any more like I don't I gave some out you don't know I didn't give any I'm like I'm like bumming beers off of people

I'm like this is bad yeah they go down way too bad they're good but like I just I can't like I can't do it I'll end up drinking the whole all of them so it's like yeah I love them and then Gil this is great and root to maybe my last bastard party right now this is the perfect content for you right now this is awesome yeah you're gonna have a great time bro don't even worry about gill you're gonna be fine dude i'm not a big dude at all is that when you graduate high school be honest gill let's see i can't put some three years older than me and i feel like i'm too old for a bachelor's so like i'm could have been born in 93 though yeah could have been born in 93 oh dude yeah that makes me way older than you then you're not too old for a bachelor party bro you're good gil yeah

often be somebody today. He feels like he's in like prime bachelor party situation. You're going to run that bachelor party, dude. Yeah. Yeah, there we go. Birth year, 93. Okay, so. He's my kiddry.

Yeah, you're being a little dramatic. Dude, Gil, you're going to go handle shit at this thing. Like, you are ready. You are right in your prime. Be somebody today, all right? And tomorrow. Well, we'll see how tomorrow goes. You got some energy drinks, dude.

You're going to be fine, dude. You can go feed them there, too. Sorry, I take back what we say. said you're completely toast sorry kill this is going to be a rough one it's all 25 year olds whoa sisters okay uh this should work out well dude good luck man have a great time oh man all right back on the rails 30 minutes you know not bad uh people need to before we get started we have a deal that we i don't know connor i feel like we've we've been pretty aggressive with deals in the past. I don't think we've had a deal as good of the current one that we came out with yesterday.

Like, I'm not even really comfortable with it because it includes Sharpstack. So right now, you can go on, I tweeted something out yesterday. You can go into the deal section here. If you're watching it on YouTube, again, move the line. Podcast, move line on YouTube as well. Go into the deal section through our friends over at Rebet. If you use promo code Sharpstack, sign up for Rebet, sweepstakes. They have casino, Connor.

They do. They have casino too, yeah, as well. They got everything. Download Sharpstack. Download Rebett. Use promo code. Use promo code Sharpstack when you do. Deposit 10 bucks, minimum deposit of $10. They'll first deposit match you up to 100. But you're going to get an email showing you how to get access to everything at 4-4 for three months, including our bet picks package, Sharpstack, which again is like by itself, if you just buy it all the card, it's like $700 bucks. And then all like our fantasy stuff. So literally everything that we have, tools,

paywalled articles, everything out of your pocket, 10 bucks through our friends over rebate, which you can then go and use as one of your outs for books. They have a vet builder and they have, you know, it's just kind of an insane deal. So check that out.

Again, let us know if you have any questions. Again, you could just go over to, if you're listening to podcasts, you're like, hey, I'm not looking at the screen.

I need to remember. Go back to 44.com. Hit the deal section and you'll figure. it out. Did I miss anything? No, I'm laughing that Patrick said. I wish you included a personalized handwritten letter from Connor with each sub. You guys can't read my handwriting. My handwriting is like chicken scratch. So you wouldn't want that. Mike call you a doctor. Art felt though. Be really nice touch.

That would be a good touch. Don't don't give read any ideas. All right. We're going to, we're going to leave that one alone. Yeah. Check that out again. I mean, literally we'll cover you for the rest of the season. Ten bucks out of your pocket. You'll get sharp stack. You don't. have to listen to the plays that we post if you don't want to. Just want to use it for fantasy advice and DFS and Sharpstack, you should definitely do that. So all right, boys, excited for this one. You're going to get off the mat. We got real close in the parley last week.

We're bringing Connor back in reluctantly, but I feel pretty good about some of the plays he has today because I'm in on some of them too. I'm going to co-sign them. But Connor, floor is yours. Week 7. First bet. Yeah, first play. We are going with a bad quarterback under joint play with you. joint play with Swer.

We're going with Cam Ward under 184 and a half passing yards. It was kind of moving across the board a little bit. So, DK is down to 182. I think down to 180s fine. Also, don't mind completions under 18 and a half. I think Nune's really interested in that as well. I mean, it isn't reached 225 passing yards in a single game. He's under the number in five of six.

Five yards per attempt are less than four of his six starts. This is just a bad match for him. Cleveland, I think, has been one of the surprise defenses of the year without Miles Garrett. It's played really well, and they played a ton of man. Ward's averaging four and a half yards per attempt against man coverage. I think slop would be better, honestly, four and a half yards per attempt is just pathetically low.

And then, Noon, you had another good cover three matchup note as well, I think, right? Yeah, I was looking at. I wanted to see really now that we were built six weeks in or so and want to see how Cleveland's defense is looking compared to what we've seen with Jim Schwartz in years past. They're actually even more man heavy than they were with Schwartz, which is hard to do because they were running, you know, again, even the demand-heavy teams don't run, you know, a ton of man coverage. So, and then if you look and see, he's just absolutely brutal. Cover one.

No one runs Cover one more than the Browns do. Came more to 51.7 percent completion percentage against cover one. 51. I mean, that's just really hard to do and keep your job as an NFL quarterback to barely complete half your passes. against a particular look. So I would like like Arnell Tate stuff.

I think he's actually really good and he's getting fed, but like you can't hit your wagon to that situation again. It'd be one of those scenarios where like I'm always trying to think what's going to happen when it's kickoff on Sunday slop? I turn the game on and I'm like, what am I sweating? What games? If there's nine games, what game can I maybe exclude? Yeah.

You know, I have two TV set up. I have double quad boxes. Who's the ninth game that gets kicked out? oh, I actually have to watch Tennessee, Cleveland because I need to sweat this Cornell Tate prop? No, I don't want to be there and have my wagon hitched to Cam Ward. So I'm guessing you probably wouldn't be in with Connor and I, but you probably don't like the over. Yeah, no, I want nothing to do with that game at all. It can't ward, anything, Cam Ward over, under, to the side, nothing at all.

I'm out. Yeah. But I would not take the over. So there's that. It's a bad situation. And you know, yeah, benching. I don't know. I mean, you can't.

You got to ride this guy out. And like at this point, you're better off keeping him in and losing. And just position yourself for an even better pig next year. So it's a bad situation. So someone in the chats that they're going to the game. That's hilarious. I know someone's going to go. I mean, I don't know if you could pay me to go to the game or it would require like a suite that

it's for free. That's probably what it would take me to go to the game. There's definitely ways, but I mean, going as a fan or something like that, that would suck. But like, you're just in Nashville. I don't know. Maybe you're hungover. It needs somewhere to be, like, you know, like maybe there is a sweet.

Like, there are ways, but man, it would take an extraordinary circumstance to get me at that game and be happy about it. You know what I mean? I've been to a lot of shitty, shitty sports games before. me too. And, shitty sports. Dude,

they're just not that fun. Like, I'm learning to appreciate like, hey, I'd rather be at home on my couch watching Red Zone than being, yeah,

like Sunday afternoon stuck here. Like, I'm just paying attention other games on the phone. Yeah, no, it, dude, dude,

up here, you'll go to Gillette. You don't watch the fours. You sit in traffic for the, well, there, what are they for you guys, threes,

three-clock games? Yeah, so like the, so the second slate, completely in traffic. You don't see any of them. So you went to a game and you hung out there for a while.

Now that's it for football. And about the time you get home, like you're tired or like maybe you've had too much drink, I don't know, but you really don't even want to watch 8 o'clock game anymore. So yeah, going to games is very difficult. I'm out.

I imagine it's better than it used to be. Probably still isn't great. But it was, I just remember when I was younger growing up, it was a miserable experience getting in and out of Foxborough. Yeah. Just like a two-lane road for a little bit. Yeah, no, 100% still like that, dude.

It's not, it's so bad, dude. Like, it's, it's so bad. Yeah, it's rough. I'm with you. Like, live sports, live music, fantastic. Sports better in a lot of abilities, especially in football, I feel like, in front of your TV. Basketball is not bad there.

Basketball, hockey, like, especially in a suite. It's kind of fun. Yeah, yeah. Baseball is awesome live, I think. Yeah. going on a ball baseball game is great. It's a thing situation. You know,

it's watching. You're on your phone. It's nice and warm outside. It's what's happening while you're hanging out. Hanging out. Yeah. Yeah. It's like it putting on,

having friends over and putting a show on and music on in the background. It's just, this is crazy. I think it's, Tim, what are we doing, man? Did you have season tickets?

Did you lose a bet, Tim? No, sometimes it is what it is, man. Sometimes you just got to go to the game. Like someone gets a ticket. it to you somehow or have them already.

And then you got to sell yourself on going because you're going now. Like it's too late. So you can't like you're not going back out of it, call out sick or anything. You just go, man. Yeah. You're your dad, dude. Yeah, I think Tim's a Jets fan I was going to say. So that I guess makes a little bit more sense.

But hey, you get to watch the Rodfather in person, Jacob Rodriguez. So you get to tell your kids about that. You saw Jacob Rodriguez as a rookie. Congratulations. Nice work. Yo, what's up, Jeff? I'm so glad Jeff's awake. He's ready.

Somebody said it's called cocaine in the chat earlier about the energy drinks I was talking about. I thought it was Jeff. And then it wasn't Jeff. I was like, whoa. We're, all right, get a little off the rails. Jeff loves a good rail in the morning. All right, Slop.

Let's just run it back. I think, you know, when he broke, don't fix it. I'm doing the same two plays I had last week. There's no, like, why would you fit? There's nothing broken. It's going to be, we'll go Isaiah likely. You can get 50 plus right now, plus 104 at NoVig.

No big is the shit if you don't have it, download it, promo code slop. Deposit 10 bucks, they'll give you 50. That's called free money, boys. Anyways, this ain't about NoVig. This is about Isaiah, likely. Last three weeks, he's gotten 60 plus receiving yards. this dude gets targeted more than eight like 12 targets 13 targets 11 targets I think the giants at the point where they kind of give up a little bit like defensively I don't know if we're

going to see the same type of effort we've been seeing like it's like they suck like things are things are going south quickly but um offensively jj makes his return I know that kind of stinks but you got a guy that like like he's getting a second chance you know what I'm saying so you You got a second chance guy. I like that. I like the fact that the Houston secondary has very good cover corners. So Malik neighbors kind of gets the pipe down a little bit. It's kind of a two-man show over there when the Giants.

Like they just like likely and neighbors. They just feel like those are the only two guys that need to get the ball, which I'm fine with that. But in a situation like this, we're going to want likely to get a little more love. Last week, he just got pepper with targets. The guy's not even a real tight end. So there is that too. So if you're thinking, oh, if Houston does getting some tight in, don't worry about that. It's fine.

This guy lines up in the slot like 80% of the time. So we're fine, dude. And they want to get him the ball. That's the key. They're going to be trailing. I do think they can get him the ball. I don't think JJ is that bad. I mean, I know it looks bad that O'Connell couldn't fix him or make a right or whatever.

What's up? Disagree. I don't think he's that bad. I think he's good enough to give me 50 yards for likely. I'll give you that. I think he is definitely that bad, but we'll see. I mean, you know, it's... Dude, he had James Winston throwing him balls the last week,

and he went to like 90 yards, 90 yards, you know what I'm saying? Like, this guy's quarterback, like bad quarterback proof, dude. It's going to be fine. I agree. I like the prop. I just, you know, I think I'm going to... I'll disagree on the JJ thing, but he can throw for a buck 75 and likely gets there and maybe neighbors gets there, but I think he is complete cheeks.

maybe i don't know didn't you say something about dishawn watson under something i don't know like the quarterback whisper some about under for the season sucks and he's playing poor that is brutal for the season though what was it was 1800 yards that's that's a tough one that's a sensitive subject here for us i'm just saying what was it again you know what he's winning games and throwing for like a buck 30 so we're actually live still not bad are we are we he's that's that he's that he's that he's That's like 1,200. I mean, we got everything that we talked about. The handicap was perfect.

All the rumbling. He's got 1,100 yards and it's week seven, and you got under 1,800. Like, live what? Live for, he's still live to get benched. You don't think he's live to get benched? I think he's like reasonably live. I don't know, man. Like, I mean, I would have cut it off for it.

I would have just like, we're good. They're four and two. I don't like. the guy. Again, I am not pro-sexual assault. We talked about that. You know what I'm saying? You've been on the record. Yeah, on the record saying that. I'm just saying that the dude is gone. Like, it's like 1,200 yards. Like every week, I'm like, man, am I going to do a Deshawn over? I just wait for the right situation. He's a situation guy. But I can't bring it on this show because of all the hate. But I'm like, I'm looking. I'm like, wait a minute. Like, I can pretty soon because that bet's going to be dead in like

two or three weeks at this point. And then I can bring it on it. Whoa. Whoa. I'll, I'll take over three weeks. Okay, now you're betting on when the bet's going to lose. I like it. I mean, I've already ridden it off. I think it's probably dead, but I think we're saying, we can't be slandering these bad quarterbacks like that unless we got

I mean, when has J.J. been good, Slop, for like a quarter a good. I said he's not that bad. He has been like a bottom three quarterback. There's certain guys that you just don't. Like Cam Ward, you don't take one of his receivers, bro. Like, it's, like, it's, that's tough that's that's tough bro like it's you like i'm saying i go back to what noon and already said like you think about future you on sunday you're about to sit down and watch dude

you got a cam ward receiver you're like oh yeah this is bad like whoops i fucked up i guess maybe a little too much coffee on wednesday when i saw that line and and and i'm in i'm in i'm in trouble now i'm just saying i don't think that we're doing that with jj yet at least i'm not At least I'm not. I'm somewhere in the middle. I know. I'm in, I'm not, I don't know that he's cool. I mean pretty bad because there's been very little good.

My only argument of anything pro JJ would be like, it's a pretty small sample. But like, you're with Kevin O'Connell in a pretty great offense. That's the big. Pass catchers and it was bad. That's an indictment on him. But maybe he was, I heard he was a total scumbag, like lazy and shit like that, doing weird stuff like that. So maybe there was an attitude issue. But you can fix an attitude maybe.

Go to New York. He's around James. James is a very positive role model. Yeah, see a pretty big, individual, you know. Yeah, maybe he's a man of increase after his college days. Not college, not so much. Gil, the only reason that I did not bet JJ Under was because I did bet Scat under. I bet Scat under 31 rushing her.

him very much. I don't think so either. I think he's... What happens? Go ahead. I'm saying I think he's still going to be like the third second or third running back. Like I think it's just going to be a three-way split and they'll each get like five carries. Yeah.

See, that's how I was scared of. I'm scared that they actually did bench him and then what if they actually put them in now? You know what I mean? It's like, I don't want to get like bailout by these coaches because Harbaid, he's a shifty one. He's like, yeah, we didn't bench him. It didn't go its way. you're like, dude, you clearly did.

Like, what are you talking about? Like, you're fine to do that. But like, why don't you're lying about it now? Probably knew they were also going to be dumping nausea and knew they had to kind of safe face for weeks moving forward saying, hey, no, no, no, no, I'm getting away from from us. And it wasn't in purpose. It's like, well, of course, we've talked about that before.

The coach was like, man, we got to find a way to get him the ball. It's like, dude, don't you call the plays? Yeah, they call the plays. You could just hand him the ball. So, like, I don't know if it's going to take too much thinking of figuring out how to get it to him. Like, he's right there, just hand it to him. Receivers, I feel like, they're like, oh, it can get you more involved. Like, that's somewhat makes sense.

Like, you know, it's different. Yeah, that's different. Maybe, like, something didn't break, right? They missed a couple passes, whatever. You can literally just call a run play and just be like, I'm handing this guy the ball. Here it is. That's your ball run that way. Six snaps, zero carries last week.

I'm on my TV more commercials than I did. in the game. But he's in a bunch of commercials. So crazy to see this dude who was just kind of okay as a rookie. But hey, you do it in New York and you get yourself a bunch of endorsement deals. He's got the personality.

I get it. Yeah. It's funny that he's not playing football on my TV. I'm watching football, but he's in a bunch of commercials. It's like basically. He's not benched. That wasn't by the sign. Like taking on the bench.

All right. Quick, quick derivative here. Tyrone Tracy reception alts. I think very, very in play here. Based on that, Tracy plays a little more, past catching roll, caught three targets last week. Over two and a half catches is plus 250. Whoa.

Yeah, pretty wild. Any badge, that's a JJ guy right there. Those guys should look at with JJ. Yeah, there you go. JJ is about to make us rich. This is great. This is 62 to 1. It's just crazy.

I just have him in the like one step above. shitty you know what I'm saying like I think you could get him he could just get us up he can get us tracy receptions I'm gonna get us I believe that Connor I believe it yeah I believe it yeah I believe it you get us likely stuff too I believe it I think the neighbor stuff is pretty high but the likely stuff is feels feels good so what do you think about that I mean like I just don't like stingly I know Ryan said that stingley doesn't shadow but the other guy's good too and like even having stingley that's half the plays. Do you know what I'm saying?

Like you like conceivably that I mean, obviously it's not a direct split, but you know what I mean? Like that's like a lot of times I think I, like I wouldn't like it. You know what I mean? That kind of just makes me like likely even more. I'm co-signing likely. I think that another piece of this is Jalen Petrie, the slot corner out for Houston. Reed Blanketship, who they used a little bit last week to fill in for him out with a concussion.

So now we're dealing with like. like MJ Stewart who just got activated has been out and has been bad the last couple years. Camari Ramsey, rookie like third round pick. So we're dealing with like some backups covering likely, which again, if you're trying to choose between neighbors likely, it's easier too. Like Slop said, like if you were to look and be like, oh, yeah, Houston's actually been decent against tight ends. There is nothing other than just what it's labeled next to his name that likely's a tight end. he even more so than Brock Bowers is aligning out wide or in the slot he is not an inline tight end based off of how he's been used this year he's on the field for like 91% of

snaps he has the second most slot yards in the league only zayflowers has more slot of anyone right nasty he's out there's 10 point dogs like those those tight end numbers dude one of those games against the the titans that doesn't count even with gun Or Hellm. Yeah. Even with Gunner Helm out there. I love Gunner. One of those games was against the Cowboys.

It was Jake Ferguson, who I don't think is bad, but, like, C.D. Lamb had a thousand reception. Like, who, like, there's only so much to go around. Do you know what I mean? But Tyler Warren went nine for 55 on those guys. I mean, Dalton Kincaid went five for a buck 30. I'm just, I mean, I think they can be had, like, bad. But, but, again, JJ kind of gets in the way of that, but it's 50.

That's not, like, we don't have to, there's no record set there. Maybe he's going to make me eat crow, you know? It's like, you got a bunch of injuries here. I don't think he's good. I'm just saying, like, we're like trashing the guy. Yeah, maybe he can just fit. Like, he's the worst quarterback in the league. Is he there for you? I was going to ask you, so you said he was just below shitty or just above shitty. I want to know who's in your shitty tier because you already backed yourself in a corner.

You can't say to Sean Watson. Well, no, like, Sean Watson's, I mean, obviously he's, he's cold. going way over 1800 yards this year, so he can't be that shitty. But we'll think about like your Cam Wards. I think there. I don't know that's necessarily him, like all him. I think just the entire situation, everything, coaching, team, everything. So there is that.

I mean, got to be Malik Willis. Malik Willis has got to be there. Willis is one that like, yeah, you're not going to look for his receivers. It's very difficult. Like you can't be that excited. it's sitting down with one of his receivers tickets. That's all, like, you can't. Like, there's no, like, that could go south quickly.

I mean, he's got, Jay J.J's got to be there, like, right now, right down to those guys. I mean, JJ's, I mean, JJ's hovering on that tier. But, I mean, like I said, he's got, he's got neighbors and likely. So you can, those are usable guys. For sure. Their defense is probably going to get them in trouble. So they are going to have to throw. So they're not going to be able to sit on it.

Like, like, you know, sometimes the Vikings could do. to where, like, you know, you don't really have to go off because, like, your run game is strong and, you know, your defense is good. That's out the window. JJ has to throw the ball. So even if he is shitty, I think he's going to be game scripted into this. So there is that. But, yeah, no, I mean, that's a good question. I think Malik Willis is probably the worst quarterback in the NFL right now and by, like, every metric.

Like, I don't think there's a worst quarterback. But he's also throwing to, like, the worst. Yeah. group of people towards a seating core and has a terrible line and lost a chain and his terrible coaching so like i agree with you he's definitely but it's either him or warder for sure the worst bo nicks right now that's the low tier bow nitch right now it's another one i don't want anything to do with like court and sutton or jell ladle like you can't be excited about that bo nix is throwing i don't even know hospital balls to these guys if he even throws it down there most of like he'll

throw it he's like checking it down to whoever every single time it feels like yeah so bo nex is down there too. He's below. He's hovering in the state. He's going to the Super Bowl last year and he's earned himself on that. And I'm not arguing with the point. It's true. I don't know. Something happens. Sometimes there are fluky years. We see some fluky shit. It's true.

Brad Johnson. Remember him? Trent Dilfer. I mean, they kind of lucked in defense. For sure. Both those defenses. But they got there. Like, we're not going to take that away from him. But yeah. I don't know. Yeah. So I think JJ might be just like got his head just a little

bit above the line of the next tier there you're what I mean like not much but like he's not not playable so we'll see maybe I'll sing a different song next Friday yeah well I think he's going to be good enough to get us home on on the likely stuff so Connor you can keep it on this page I'll give you

well actually know I'm actually going to play a different version of the quarterback number and I'm not going to go passing yards I'm going to go attempts but I am also co-signing slop on the Isaiah likely thing as we kind of did there, but I'll jump in with another one here. I like this regardless of what happens on the opposite side, whether it's Lamar or not Lamar. I'm going to play Joe Burrow over 36 and a half passing attempts in this game. Obviously, I think it goes from a good play to a great play if we get Lamar because obviously

the environment there just gets a little bit better and they push them. But healthy bangal squad. I'm not of a buy, big divisional game, big totals like 49, 49 and a half here. Sinci, again, as they always do, they lead the league and pass rate over expected, plus five and a half percent. Burrow, just looking at like historics in this matchup, 38, at least 38 attempts in six straight and eight of nine against Baltimore. So you got Marlon Humphrey coming out telling everyone how he hates having a cover

Jamar Chase, it's kind of a tell. 36 and a half is just way too late for me. I think you can go yards. I think you can go completions. I just know he's going to draw back and throw a ton. I think they struggle to run the football. I don't even know what they're doing there. It's just kind of a mess.

I got Burrow projected for 39 and a half. I play this out to 37 and a half. I love 36 and a half. And then this becomes a absolute smash if this is Lamar. So, Connor, any thoughts here? I like to play. this has my brain moving a little bit though with like playing more alts with attempts and completions especially after we we hit that rogers one last week and like they like a way over like

it's not like they go a little bit over they just like if they get put a negative game script in the right matchup they just i mean he had what 35 completions 33 completions like that would have been the latter the max ladder i think on his completions everywhere on here i'm seeing like you can get 45 attempts is like eight to one you know what I mean? Like if that game cooks out, like, that's, that's not bad at all, seven to one. That's, so I don't know. I'm going to do some more research on the volatility of completions and attempts, but I think that that could be an especially volatile market if you find the right situation. So I don't know. We'll report back next week.

Yeah. I think in a situation like this too, when you have, you know, the pass rate over expected data, you have to worry about the efficiency. You just like, hey, he can, he's going to chuck it a ton, right? They've, was the game early in the year where they're like, you know, asked him about, you know, how frequently they were passing. He's like, I would just pass more. You ran the ball like 12 times. You know, we're asking if you decided if you think you should have some balance. He's like, no, we should chuck more.

I can't imagine they're in the spot. Like, hey, we just got to get Chase Brown and Samadji P. Ryan going against the Baltimore team. Like, no, we're going to, we're going to chuck. We have everyone healthy. Like, we're going to throw the football. I mean, that just leads me into my play. So I can just pop that real quick. Yeah, so I'm going to go with Chase Brown under 48 and a half rushing yards.

Very on-brand play, but lost a ton of work. He fumbled before the buy. And then after that fumble, Piron came in, out snapped him 20 to 15, out carried him 10 to 7. And that was against Miami. Chase Brown has just been like so inefficient, even in good matchups. Now he gets a slightly worse matchup. I mean, honestly, yeah, Piron's just been playing better than him. So it looks like we got Chase Brown out to 49.

nine and a half here, even in some spot. So I'm sure I won't get the benefit of that one there in the Discord, though, from the Discord crowd. But it's all right, under 40 and a half, I like this down to 45, honestly. Again, I just don't think he sees that much work. It's going to be closer to a 50-50 split. And then there's also the chance where they fall behind and, you know, he just sees two carries in the fourth quarter.

That's very possible. Yeah. I even really like this one early in the week. It was higher. but yeah I didn't want to accidentally step on it on our Wednesday show when I brought it up because I was like this is a con around special I could feel this one coming for sure but yeah maybe maybe just Pryans more involved like I don't know I don't know that Chase Brown I think part of like the love of Chase Brown was like opportunity based you know what I mean so I mean he's awesome

he's awesome for fantasy right like catches a ton of balls yeah right like scores touchdowns so yeah Slop, any thoughts on our two Bengals picks here, Burrow and Chase? I'm very interested in the Burroughs' attempt. I'm also very interested in the attempt all game. I think maybe you guys might have stumbled upon greatness, because I think that you're right. Like if we can do two guys, same game, that kind of stuff.

those are the obvious ones you know what I mean and then add in a burrow like a one-off here so now we can end up with like four or five guys that all we need is attempts so maybe maybe that can be our ticket to a winning lotto parley on the show just alt attempts like an old time yeah well done yeah all like four of them and just call it a day yeah well done dude that's like well you know what you can't do five unless you do four so we'll do four and if we need to add one we'll add one yeah a couple of thoughts in that market this week i'm sure you guys maybe do as well because there's a couple of decent looks on the board i think in uh attempts i think we go through them all at the end i dead i think we can we'll start like dead serious i think that should be our parlay today because

i'm dead serious i think you guys are 100% right about it i've thought about it before but like i said sometimes I forget shit. So I don't like keep thinking about it. You know what I mean? And when I'm going to put plays in, I don't really get back to that, that train of thought. But that's actually genius because you are right.

Like when when you get a game that goes off game script, it's like 10 over, dude. It's not even close. Yeah. And close. Yeah. So, okay.

All right. There's a couple different situations, I think, from like a high level standpoint that I think we have to think about that I could trickle down those things, right? Like, does the opponent have the ability to like really control the game and run the football at a high level? If they don't, no matter what you think the game script can be or how good or bad the quarterback is, you open yourself up to the possibility of a lot of possessions.

And like that's what it's going to kill us in any of these scenarios is can that other team have an eight and a half minute 15 play drive and just absolutely, you know. A couple good run defenses helps a lot. Yeah. One run defense helps quite a bit, you know what I mean? Especially if there's an offense to go with it. So if you're a quarterback's a team that doesn't really, that does stop the run, but can't get thrown on. You don't what I'm trying to say now.

Like, yeah, I like, it's just a little shell game. Yeah. All right. I like the good play. All right, Connor, I like to Chase Brown under. It's a good look. It's a lot of, I think there's a lot of outs in where that can come in, right? Like, you just can be inefficient again.

You can get more P-Rine. And he can, you know, there's just the game gets out of hand. And, you know, Burroughs throwing the ball 43 times for us. Whatever it ends up being, there's plenty of, plenty of pass there. All right. So, let's back to you again. All right. So play the hits, man.

People are going to call me a Matthew Golden Merchant because I had, I'm dead safe. I had him a week one back when he was in the 40s. Hey, I'm actually on my picket right now looking up. I'm trying to get like Matthew Golden, just my Matthew Goentz. I think, yeah, he's definitely circle of trust, all green here. But I'm trying to make sure. I think I had him. Yeah, 3 and 0, all of them were this season.

He was 40 plus against Minnesota, Ryan. I had him 52 and a half against Atlanta. both of those games I thought, hey, they'd be trailing. So obviously I want to jump in on that. Here's what we learned, though. Even in games where they kicked the shit out of the other team, he still goes over 100, right? Because I didn't do it against Chicago,

and then we saw what he did. What's up? I had them in Chicago. It's great. Okay, yeah. So I didn't do them there. So I was like, all right, well, what if they kill the bears? I don't want to get in a situation where I needed them in the first half,

didn't get them and now I'm just drawn dead in the second half. So technically I was right, but I didn't make any money. So whatever. But anyways, the next time I was like, I don't give a shit. I think maybe Dallas does score on them. And even if they don't, Matthew Golden still gets his. And we saw what happened. The guy was targeted 13 times, caught six balls, probably should have caught nine to 10. I don't know how many of those drops you guys saw, but that was bad. There was multiple drops. But again, he's like a child. to me. You know what I'm saying? Like, I can't say a bad thing about him. He's like my kid. So I'm going to go right back to him. He's got Detroit. We're playing, we're paying a premium price.

Like it's 80 plus. I'm looking. What are you guys got right now for 80 plus? Show me that sharp tech screen. Looks like we got plus 115, 14 at Fandle. 80 plus. I think he gets it, man. I really do. I mean, the Detroit second. secondary. They suck. I mean, I know he's not in the slot. I wish he was in the slot because slop guys kind of go off, but the guy's out wide, they still get theirs. We saw Ted McMillan go nuts. Watson, they say he's hurt. I don't think he is. I think he's playing. I think he's fine. But it's another situation like the Giants have with they just like those two guys. It's like, you know what I'm saying? Like if they wanted to, and then like they'll sprinkle in

crap on the other knee stuff. But that Jordan Love Kid wants to literally, he looks like a middle school kid playing madden you know what i mean like it's he he throws a go route seems like every single drive so you got shots all day there they they run him in every route so i i don't know how he doesn't get 80 we could luck out too and have the pan or the lion's score on them what would happen to then you know what i mean like now we're playing catch up and now again like jordan love it literally looks for matthew golden or christian watson that's it you know i'm saying like it's tucker crap like whenever crap probably says something in the huddle i'm guessing but he's hey, buddy, I'm over here too.

That's it. I know we get Josh Jacobs back, but I don't know how much that's going to factor in to the past game, especially if they get behind. And Josh Jacobs doesn't run far enough out for Joy and Love. I don't know what they make of the Josh Jacobs stuff this week. Yes, I'm not sure what really to do with them. Also, too, Detroit's been pretty good against the run at home.

I mean, I'm not sure how much I love the at-home splits six games into the season. But at the same time, haven't been that bad. I think there's six best than the entire NFL, which is fine with me. But just anything stop the run? Like, please God, stop the run. And then now we're cooking with receivers. So let's see Golden. Man, I think he's good. I think he can do another 100 yards. We only need to 80. I love it. You're paying, you know, paying the freight, it's climbing up there. But it doesn't matter. If you're going to get 100, I don't care if it's 73, right? I mean, it's, yeah, bro. It was. I think I played 50. I think. 52 and a half.

So I got against Minnesota, I'm looking minus 106 for a 40 burger. It is now 80. There's nothing. It's now 80. I remember thinking that game, I was like, am I missing? Like, should I bet my house on this? Like, responsibly, obviously. But I was like, this doesn't feel right.

Like, it feels pretty good. So, yeah, we'll see. but yeah I think he's like upper echelon like I think he's one of the like he's being treated like he's one of the better receivers in the NFL even though he does drop the ball quite a bit and really put you off when that happens separation ability to get open is the skill and he obviously has it in spades track speed comes into play for sure and he'll figure it out and get better Patrick I'm with you on this to the Savian Williams I played a little 16 and a half it's really stinky tough to share that with the people and put that stink on other people.

But I did play some Savion 16 and a half. That was noticeable last week, Ryan. He's quick. They want to get a great. They played him a decent amount and the slot's been a problem. My only reluctant to see is that the slot might be a little bit better if they, Brian Branch might be back and he might kind of take some of that. But who knows how healthy or what's going on with him.

So, but yeah, Savian kind of did pop a little bit and was pretty involved. All right. I like what Shammy's saying on the bottom there. Yeah. Yeah. And efficient. Oh, sorry.

Their line sucks too, don't they? Yeah. Yeah. All right. I got a stinky one. I got a stinky one. I don't think you guys don't like it.

I feel pretty good about it. And I almost didn't play. I was just like, oh, man. And then I'm more looked at it. I'm like, actually just a really good play. Sometimes you have to think about future you and put it aside.

Because sometimes future you just needs to ignore it and kind of like lean into, you know, Good numbers. It's just a little, a little gross. But I think this is a pretty good football player that's getting a chance here. I'm going to play Olly Gordon

over 50 and a half rushing yards. Wiley available. See Connor's face. He's like, I probably have all, he probably has Ollie Gordon under 50 and a half on his list. He probably considered. I don't, but I don't, but continue.

Yeah, no, I know you were. I knew you were going to like it. I thought maybe I could sell slu, Look, we've had three games of Ollie Gordon, right? Like, it's Miami. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's abysmal. But those three games were Kansas City, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. So, again, everyone's relative to Miami, really good.

But those are three really good defenses, run defenses so far this year. Bengals started, like, leak big plays. But, like, against running backs, they've still been pretty stout. Chiefs have been awesome, Minnesota, too. But even in those trailing game scripts against the Chiefs, 17, carries, 18 carries against the Bengals, then no business running the football, but like they have a negative 11.5% pass rate of expectation

because they're trying to hide their bad quarterback and their bad, you know, pass catchers. So of all the games the Miami has had the season, I like the Jets here, but this is the one that probably has the longest leash of neutral scripts because it's like a four and a half point spread and like the Jets aren't great. Gordon's been good, fourth and explosive rush rate, ninth in yards after contact.

running back skill running back stat. Jets really struggling against the run, especially compared to the other teams I just talked about. 27th, an explosive rate, 26 and yards before contact, 28th and stuff rate, right? So you're getting downhill against them a little bit. Jalen Wright, limited all week.

He's going to play, but limited with a foot injury coming out of a buy, like you should be healthy. So I just feel like we're going to get a decent workload here. Probably, you know, what, 14, 16 carries, which again, you can play is carry numbers. like 13 and a half. It just feels a little bit more thin because of his big playability. I think he could pop a couple here. So he's played some good ball. It's a tough sell. I get it. Slop any thoughts on Ollie Gordon.

All right. So I already trashed Connor for that Deshawn Watson take. I got to go the other way on this one. The haters are probably not talking to you too much about your Dolphins call earlier in the summer when you said that they might they won't win i think it was three games or four games was it well i got under four and a half but i said it was going to be i said they wouldn't win three games okay yeah there's something on twitter i remember the guys for coming at you i'm like i don't know i think connor's probably right about this like these guys suck like they are as bad as bad gets in the nfl it's it is but if there is a bright spot and if there is a bright spot and if there is a week that maybe they get a little competitive because here's the thing we talked about the

giants maybe giving up because shit's been going wrong but they had hope to begin with the dolphins never had hope correct so you know what I'm saying so like they've been going through this they've been kind of like the other way kind of like a beaten dog you know what I mean they're kind of just in a quarter now maybe they can like get a bite on the way out and it's probably the jets so if there's any week that you would be pro-miami anybody it would have to be now but you're got to pick your spots because they're not really good. No. But Ollie Gordon, I don't, I mean, I think he's good.

I don't think he's good running back at all. I think he got a lot of, a lot of hype last year, I remember. And it was like, you watched them playing, like, all right, kind of like the Savion thing. When you watched it, you know, it was noticeable. You know, you're like, oh, no, shit. Like, that's working. Well, it is kind of so, like, that's the long way of saying, like, if, I mean, that this is definitely a hero pick because, I mean, you're taking a Dolphins running back.

I know. going back to like what we all thought about them from literally day one before this the season even started i'm just saying i get probably not a bad move dude i mean it 11 carries for a hundred yards against minnesota so you're like that game got out of hand but he still popped like a couple of big ones um 88 yards against the bangles they were trailing it's like you're down 14 throw the ball like they don't want to throw the ball so like you got 88 yards what patrick's saying in the chat patrick's right like this is like this is their shot I think they probably believe that this is their shot.

I bet you they thought they would not win games. Like I'm dead serious. I bet you there's humans. Do they know? I bet you like they've been going in these games. Like, like I'm not saying they're not trying, but you don't know what I mean?

Just knowing. Like, yeah. They said it. They said it before the season. He literally said, I'm not judging this year by wins and losses. Like that's the biggest loser mentality of all time. So these players know.

But like I said, but now they're finally at a spot where they're like, dude, we might be able to beat these guys. like these jets like so they're they're probably coming as high as they've been in any game this season and like they but they know that this is this is their shot probably so there's someone in the chat said they're going to this game so if you have to go to this game i think maybe stuff ollie gordon tick in your pocket and see what happens yeah tim's the jets fan he's going to the game

but it's you know an emotional hedge you know you got that you know it's pretty five it's between you and god the coaching staff's talking about how they love these you know He's a violent runner. He is a violent runner. He's the same thing about Josh Jacobs. Yeah, violent runner, absolutely. Very violent. Pretty violent, domestically violent, but allegedly.

Allegedly. Allegedly. Allegedly. So I get the hesitation on the Yolly Gordon play. I was hesitant. It was one of the first things I had my list for the week, and I just kept ignoring it. And like about an hour before the show,

I'm like, it's still kind of hovering. Actually got bet up a little bit, but I'm like, I still think it's a really good play. good and they're going to give them the ball because they don't want to throw so uh yeah sorry i like we'll see jeff has the jets a survivor what a psycho that's wild i i actually like them against the spread but that's connor and i are playing them i've been crazy yeah nice work jess yeah Jeff you're way beyond prayers my friends uh yeah and if god hears it and it's for you he's done too but He's heard enough.

So, all right, Slop, I think you're good. Connor, you got anything else? Yeah, I got one more joint play for us. And it's an over one that I think Slop can get behind here. We're going to Kyrn Williams over 63 and a half rushing yards. Kiron was vocal about his usage after the loss last week. They asked him, what if they thought he could do better? He said, I don't know.

I'm not on the field. I'm not in the field. Which pretty savage. And then, you know, they talked about it this week. McVeigh was like, no, it's no big deal. He's just passionate. Like, he just, like, wants to win. He apologized to me already.

We're good. Also, too, like, McVeigh, like, Kyran's been a McVe guy for like years now at this point. He was like a nobody. They drafted him. You're supposed to have a big role immediately. He got injured. And then since then is stuck through him, stuck with him through like fumbles and everything there.

Now gets a Raiders team along 152 rushing yards per game to, or total yards per game to running backs. Tons of your running backs go over 100 yards. per game five yards per carry most yards before contact in the league at two yards before contact in the league and a 10 plus yard yard run on 15 percent of backfield carries pookas banged up devonte's on i are they got they're rolling out two to out well and canada mumfield is like their primary wide outs if puka doesn't play i think they're just kind of like three tight ads on the field all the time and just jam the run um so i think i know noon you and i discuss quorum

versus kairn i think both are great plays for the sake of like run running a service you don't want us to like blast out three rams rushing overs because we also like the team total rushing over right now which is 115 yards on three to five it's dropped on 365 it's minus it's one 13 and a half so if you have bet three six five click the rushing tab drop down team total rushing over on the rams uh 113 and a half phandwill usually post those closer to game time we started betting those last year and those are just awesome because like I don't know whether it's going to be Kairn or Korum or both. I think this is a both game,

but I like taking the team total rushing yards there as well. So yeah, I think both are a smash. I legit think that they could combine for like 150 to 200 yards here. Like that wouldn't even surprise me. Yeah, I was going to release Korum. I went back and forth with both talking to Connor. He likes Kieran a little bit more, but I'm good with Kieran because I just couldn't make a decision.

Because I think there's something to the squeaky wheel piece, but I also could be nothing. and then the quorum line is still like we've been betting quorum at like 42 and a half 43 whatever he's 35 and a half and the Raiders actually the rush defenses is not great they've actually allowed the highest rate of yards before contact in the league at almost two

quorum actually leads the league in that stat but like it doesn't really matter if you know they're still going to be bad if Kyron's going to get 15 16 touches you know carries here he's he's going to cook so I love the three, six five team play. So, yeah, in on it. Love it. Take advantage of that team total.

And if you have FanDul, take advantage and look for that. It probably comes out Saturday or Sunday, like the team look to. Even if it's like, I don't know, 125. What would you say playable too, Connor? I mean, 120 and change, like it's, you're muted. Yeah, I think 120-ish is probably, I mean, it's still light, I think. You know, like we're looking at like, I think the Kairn's going to get closer to 80. I think I think Corum's going to end up in the 40 to 50 60 range

and that's like if they just both go above expectation Right you know again if they smash like it could be even more But they usually open alts too so they do all team rushing stuff So that's the move I think that's you know you got to get in there too Yeah, so I'm gonna ask if they have alts and acts I think that's very low one day I think you're right they're gonna run the ball quite a bit I kind of really when he said that wasn't like the shittiest way of saying

If you watch that interview, it wasn't like that bad. Like whenever you read it in print, you're like, ooh, he said that. But then when you watch the way he said it, like, it might not have been a direct shot. I might just been like I wasn't out, you know what I'm saying, like whenever they were talking about. So I don't know. I think he's fine. I think he's going to rush for as many as he wants to. The Raiders run defense sucks.

And the only problem with Kyron is Blake Quorum exists. So what happens if he starts going on? You know what I mean? So the best way to play that, I think to be honest with you, you can take three different, or you can release as a service three different ramps rushing overs. I don't see how that's a problem. I think, yeah, that's how you do it.

You know what I mean? Because I think you should cover every base there because every base should hit. And if one does it, then the other two could. So you're going to profit doing it. So I feel like that's a pretty smart, way of doing things yeah i don't hate the number the Tommy has here too combo 125 plus plus 153 hell yeah who said that Tommy

nice work yeah no like I'm trying to figure how I'm gonna play it like I got burgers to grilling a little bit so I'm gonna be out to think that's this is gonna be the one that I'm thinking about like how do I how do I play that like how exactly am I gonna play this because I want to play this multiple different ways I think you're definitely right with puka calf injury that just came up halfway through the week, not good. I bet you they slow play that into he doesn't play. Do you know what I mean?

And then no Devante Adams, obviously. And McVeigh has no problem just throwing a thousand tight ends out there. And he's the type of guy that would have tried to run it right down your throat. See if they can do what the, you know, the Mac Jones game against Buffalo that one year. And they threw like five times. Yeah, that was awesome. It was windy Thursday night. Yeah.

Here you go. Oh, Bill. I'll say you threw it four times. I think I had Jonu Smith that night. Yeah, that was fun. Like, all right, they're running again. It's an joint place. I like it.

It's a good week for a joint every week. All right, do we build a parlay. Let's do it. Yeah, we want to rip some attempts? Yeah, let's see the attempt screen. Yeah. And then let's see some games. All right, so Burrow first is obviously in, right?

We just got to decide on what that number's going to be. I feel like that's the most efficient way to do this. We can't keep everybody waiting, but we do have to think about this shit. Yeah, well, let me see where I can parlay alts. I don't know if,

like, can you parlay alt on Fanduel or where can you parlay alt? Oh, yeah, you can. For attempts, that's like the only thing that I'm like, not sure about. Yeah,

uh, you've got to be able to parlay attacks. Or if they're a fraud book. That's what I'm saying. No offense. See, I don't, I don't see him.

Let me see if I can load up some other shit here. Are there, Are there alts? Do we have seizures? I don't even see it. I do have Seizers. Yeah. Does Seasers have alt attempts?

I don't know. That's where we're going to find out. Dude, did our freaking get rich scheme already blow up in our face? This is brutal. Okay, let me see here if I can do it on this app. I got a random app here. Let's see.

And then, let's see here. All right. I think Draft Kings allows you to do it. And court side, which is like a sweepst app that's alive in a bunch of places. Cesar does. Cesar allows you too. Okay.

All right. Yeah, we're back. Yeah. All right. Okay. I'll rip it on Cesar's then. All right. Yeah, we can't do it on Fanduel.

There's no even attempts anyways. Yeah, which is crazy. They do have a 50% NBA boost though tonight. Yeah. Let's go. Do you want Burrow 40 or more 42 is plus 220? 40 is plus 139. What's this standard?

36? Yeah, 30. Well, 37 and a half now that Noon released it. Nice job, Noonan. Yeah. What about 44? 44 is plus 360. Yeah.

I mean, what if he just throws all day? Let's go 42. 22. 42. That's great. Um, so, I think the 30s, sorry, go ahead, Hunter.

No, no, you go first. You got one. Okay, I was going to say, I think the 30s, like, whenever we got a guy, like, 29 is the standard. I think that might be your sweet spot for getting the plus 500 because if he did throw it way more than expected, it's still like 37 attempts. You know what I mean? It's still like it's not, like kind of like Aaron Rogers last week.

You know what I mean? And like his attempts that are just low to begin with. So if it does go way over, does that make sense? Like Burrow, if you wanted to get like the 500, like he's got to throw the ball 46 times. Like now you're getting, now it's kind of a lot, dude.

Like it's like, I guess it's getting a little bit off the rails. But like playing all it's on, you know, the wide receiver ones. You know what I mean? It's like, hard to play all it's on Amunrah or JSN or whatever. Exactly.

And the NBA, like it's like, you know, Steph Curry had to be like nine threes. It's like, yeah, well, we're not. And now it's just getting ridiculous. but so are there any guys that are in the like the low 30 standard line i think that would be the best way to to figure out if we want to look into them yeah the lazy answer is that if there was someone lined at 29 and a half passing yards that i thought could get to 40 i'm probably betting over 29 and a half like passing again um yeah i yeah but still though because again like

you're going to need that game script it's not like there's a few ways to get there you're definitely going to need that game script to get off like so it's kind of like, all right, maybe you go something else. I got a perfect one full circle here, J.J. McCarthy. 38 attempts is plus 275. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball well. I don't think Newton on the other side that the Texans can't run the ball for shit. And so they can't sustain drives either.

So I think we could see a ton of volume, like just like bad volume here. Let's go, JJ. So I think that's a good one. We're already at 11 to 1. I love this. I have another kind of like full circle one that we just kind of touched on. just the floating out there. It fits slops mold.

Deshawn Watson? Gino. Okay. Gino Smith. The dolphins. Yeah, that's a tough one. All right. Sell,

sell me. Sell me on that. Yeah. No, it's just, it's in the line of where you're at. If it ends up being more of a neutral script, uh,

and again, they're getting healthy. Like Omar Cooper looked really good last week. Adonai Mitchell's back. Obviously they're going to be just a bad secondary, right? Like you get a situation where, you know, Gino only has to throw 34 times as,

plus 210, right? Like, okay, Gino 34. So just putting that one up there. That's not that crazy. Another one is, well, let's see what the line is. I think Michael Pennix is a good one. Yep. He's only a 31.

That could be a fun. Oh, no, sorry. What's Deshawn Watson? Deshawn is at, we got to get some of our money back, Newton. Let's see here. 29 and a half. Okay.

Sean. So 34, which he hasn't done all season, against Tennessee, probably is not going to happen. Yeah. Yeah, no, I, it's very easy to see why these wouldn't work. You know, it's trying to find a story in a... I mean, Pennick is only at 31. Like, if they're trailing, I could easily see him lighting them up

or if they, you know, like, that's, I think that's a good one. In the background... What's here at Rogers? Yeah, Rogers is, well, Rogers, I think, is getting high now, because it's like he's just chucking basically the entire time. Let's see here. Yeah, you can pick either in that game.

Tyler Shirti. 34 and a half. Yeah. I mean, I think he'll be, he could throw the ball 40 times. Yeah, I mean, that's not a bad look either.

What's that? Let's see here. Rogers 40 times is, I got to scroll up to the Sunday 830 game. It covers a window for slop. Yeah, they need that window. 40s plus. 265 that's nothing it basically does it every week yeah so they're i mean he's in we got something at 930

hopefully uh they all make it out of there alive so in the background here to get to get a little nerdy background here i was running uh what that look the back testing on how the alt's hit basically um and this whole theory basically it says the best ones are the close game attempts alt overs so like um projected to be a close game totally total of 45 plus. So the best ones right now, Burrow is one of them. Burrow, Purdy,

Bryce Young, Jordan Love. I mean, Jordan loves, the problem is does go against Slops theory of like, they're a little bit higher already. So like Jordan Love's at 37 and a half.

Bryce Young is at 35 and a half, right? So that's kind of the tough part. But I like we have a borough. We have McCarthy, Burrow and then Rogers and then we're already at 42 to 1 so we only need like one or two more and we're fine. What do we play in McCarthy?

What was the number you picked? I did 38 but it's plus 275, yeah. He threw it 21 times when he came in the other day. And that was one quarter. Yeah. So I mean, again, that was obviously a negative trailing game script. There was a lot of things happening there. But at the same time, like, all right.

the math says he's going to throw it 80 times then i mean yeah i mean you extrapolate that over four quarters now it's just now i like pennix 36 and a half pennix 36 and a half okay i don't mind now yeah see i think the 49ers can get a half i think that game can get kind of dumb yeah literally i really do like i think that the 49ers can't score on them even though we know if mike is going to play? Not playing. It's looking like not. Yeah, because a sore Achilles,

especially when you got a buy week the next week, feels like a good time to just go ahead and have a seat and then maybe see what you feel like in a couple weeks, but I'm not a doctor or giving advice, but I feel like that's probably the move. Even with that happening, though, I still think the 40 hires can score on them. Oh, for sure.

So you just, now you're in a trailing game script, now you have throw the ball. I looked way too long at the Zachariah Branch Jahan Dotson props this week. And you take a shower after that. They're not on the card, but it was spent some time there because I just thought that I consider Pennix too because I thought that was an option.

You also could check down a ton and teams do check down a ton against San Francisco. So good for. I think there's two great ones too in addition to Pennix. I think Daniel Jones has 44 and 42 attempts the last two games. And Bryce Young has 39, 41, 48 attempts the last three games. And if Baker's back and they push them at all, like the Panthers could. Baker's going to play.

45 times. The group is not going to play. They try to run maybe. I don't know. I think who's the first. I said Daniel Jones what's what what we play him at like 36 I think it would be good let's hear 38 plus is 250 yeah 38 plus 38 so throw that in there all right I think we just cracked the code dude I like the I like the I like the Bryce young let's do Bryce is the sixth one okay and then

we're done we talked about Bryce early in the week we're considering releasing Bryce props completions yards you know they're second and pass rate of expectation Tampa's a run funnel This is the same reason we played, you know, Aaron Rogers last week, right? Same type of matchup. But now we only have an element that helps is the, you know, the potential push with Baker being back. All right. 10 to win 15 grand, 14 grand. And that's pretty good.

Feels free. Just on six plays. That seems pretty solid. Dude, that's crazy. All right. Dude, what if we win? Like, what are we going to buy? All right.

15 bucks to win 21 I did instead that's better sounds better so we're doing that Illinois bet tech still oh my god I cannot believe this absolute crooks all right um I will tweet this out this is this is the new age right here this is this is how it goes this is how we win we're gonna be genius dude yeah I think we literally just cracked the code I feel like it's been cracked yeah I'm also really proud of us for not making a tight end parlay the national yeah no that's too played out. Yeah.

Two played out. They want you to do that, guys. They don't want you to do passing attempts. It's fun. I like it. I like the new look, new angle. Maybe that's it.

Maybe, you know, we pick a lane each week, too. We can just, you know, but I think this is a good angle. What do we, yeah,

I feel like that's a good one, though. There's just a lot of volatility in it, I feel like, you know. Yeah, but that's where these things go. Like, that's how they hit the volatility. You know what I'm saying? Like, that's literally, you want a volatile one because otherwise,

they're better at price and it. You know what I'm saying? Yeah. It's like the home run theory that I have. It's like, dude, that's hard for them to price. Like they definitely rip you off. But like, it's a fucking home run, dude. Like, you know what I'm saying?

Like it's like it's said game script for these guys. Like there's not a lot. Just go south quick. Yeah. So here you are here's a fun, fun stat. When pass attempts miss when they go over, they go over by an average of plus six, 0.75. So an average of seven. So when they go over, which is a ton. That's a lot. Yeah.

That's an insane amount. That's again, all of these were within that range. All of them are within six, six times of their main lines. Because each tick is just more money. You don't I mean? So like, yeah, you're looking at six to seven. That's three ticks up. They're by, yeah, by two, right? Literally. Okay. I like crazy. All right. I feel like I love it. Rich already, dude. Yeah, it feels good. I feel like I'm going to get the service. burgers tonight. Yeah. We've earned it, Slop.

Hell yeah. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out. As always, appreciate the activity in the chat. You guys are the best. As always, make sure you take advantage of this new rebate deal. Again, head over at 444.com. Click the deals button.

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1500 bucks the top three guys are over a thousand dollars top 50 get paid so let's roll yeah i use promo code slop works everywhere jeff yeah but just put slop and i'm dead serious you'll get you'll get something yeah i either do i just anywhere i go i just try either code slop or code mail for pat all the pat stuff um and i just get a discount regardless because I know one of the two of you have, you know, a promo there. I've been there. If I've been there, there's a promo code. Yeah.

How you work. So, all right. Appreciate everyone as always. Early congrats to us on our parlay win. It's going to feel so good coming back here next week. Thumbs up on the video before you take off. Subscribe as well for Connor. Slop.

I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.