Move The Line - BEST Season-Long NFL Player Props to BET!

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

Move the Line: Prop Drop is back for the 2022 NFL season with a brand new co-host! Joining 4for4's Ryan Noonan & Connor Allen every week for a rundown of the best NFL player props to bet on is Pat Mayo. Join them this week as they share their top season-long NFL player prop bets.Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:55 Connor Bet #1 – Cam Akers U1,225 rushing + receiving yards (-130, DK)8:09 Pat Bet #1 – Brady O4,600.5 Pass Yards (+100, DK)11:45 Ryan Bet #1 – Najee Harris U1,600.5 total yards (-120, DK)15:20 Connor Bet #2 – Allen Robinson O1,000 receiving yards (+130, FD)18:26 Pat Bet #2 – AJ Dillon O5.5 Rushing TDs (-130, DK)21:41 Ryan Bet #2 – Tee Higgins O965.5 rec yards (-115, PB)25:02 Connor Bet #3 – Trey Lance O530.5 rushing yards (-120, DK)29:10 Pat Bet #3: Jahan Dotson U611.5 Rec Yards (-115, DK) vs. Ryan Bet #3: Jahan Dotson O49.5 receptions (-115, DK)35:27 Connor Bet #4 – Courtland Sutton O62.5 receptions (-115 at DK)38:43 Pat Bet #4 – Matt Ryan U25.5 Passing TDs (-120, DK)43:05 Ryan Bet #4 – Mike Gesicki U55.5 receptions (-115, MGM)48:46 Q+A 56:17 PROP TOOL BET1:02:14 OUTRO Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, excited to be back in this space talking about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is player props. We will be live right here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday from now to the Super Bowl, giving our favorite player props, taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Jump in the chat, let us know your favorite season-long player prop, something you're on the fence about. Ask us about anything. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. It's that time of year, my friend.

How we doing? Great. I mean, we're less than a week away from week one. I could not be more excited. It's that time. Also joining us every week in this space is the man behind Mayo Media Network in the Pat Mayo Experience. Of course, none other than the man himself.

It is Pat Mayo. Pat, welcome aboard, buddy. I'll try to sound more excited than Connor does. Not his strength. He's sharp. It's like the MMA guys, right? They can't read, but they can consume MMA. Connor can give us winners,

but sometimes we need to get him a Red Bull here and there. I'm still working on it. I'm still working on it. Hey, listen. Everyone knows I'm still working on it. Hey, listen. Everyone knows I'm not bringing winners to the table, so I'll bring the enthusiasm. You bring the winners. We'll have a perfect match.

It's self-deprecating the area to call BS on because you're winning a lot more than you'd like to let us believe. The bit works, though. Pat, real quick, though, reminder for the YouTube folks what they need to do to the Like button. Yeah, they need to smash the Like button what they need to do to the like button. Yeah, they need to smash the like button. They need to sub to the channel. And if you're in that chat and I don't like what you're doing in that chat, you're banned for life.

I'm just kicking you out. Important that I did give Pat permission to ban anyone that's a jackass. He has a lot of experience dealing with jackasses in the chats. I'd be foolish not to lean on his expertise here. See, you don't want to lose subs you don't want to lose viewers you know that i don't care about this sort of thing i'll not we'll have our viewers we'll have our loyal viewers so it's not even just like you're acting like a jackass in the chat i don't like i don't like your punctuation ban for life get out

of here figure it out whatever it takes we'll do it so uh i want to let people know we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available streaming here on YouTube, also available in podcast form, wherever you consume podcasts. Our game preview show with Connor, John Daigle, and myself will now be on Thursdays at 7 p.m. Eastern, leading into Thursday night football. Again, important to subscribe so you don't miss a show. Throughout, we're going to share and reference some tools

that are a part of the 444.com betting subscription. Betting sub is the best way to secure access to everything on the site, everything you're going to need to be profitable this season, every article, every tool, weekly rankings, projections, DFS, high stakes, redraft, subscriber-only Discord, all of it. Covering multiple sports with NBA, college football, soccer. We got people doing EPL. Is that a thing, Connor?

Yeah, I think so. Well, EPL, I mean, it's a thing for some people, but, you know. We got picks for you folks. So it's in the subscriber discord. Added a ton of new betting tools and resources this season that are only available with a betting sub. So go to 444.com slash plans. You can go down into the show notes

to get the details there as well. We'll be back next week to talk our favorite week one props. But for now, we're going to get into our favorite season long plays here. All live lines available for you to bet right now

while you watch. No one here to give stale lines. It is our goal to make sure that you can get as close to the best number or price that we did. So definitely want to make sure that you are watching this live. Again, it'll be available in podcast form, but being live is the best that we can do.

So Connor, I'm going to kick it to you first for your first prop. Before you do, though, if you could take us through a little bit, just talk to me a little bit about your process as it relates to season long props or props in general, and then give us your first play. Yeah, so I notoriously take a lot of unders and season long props. Uh, but this show is actually not going to be filled with that because the market's already moved on so many of these different props that at this point, you know, we've kind of lost a little bit of an edge on most of the unders. So I will be playing some overs, but generally season long

philosophy, uh, bet the under there's just a ton of outs, whether it's through injury, whether it's through poor coaching, bad offensive line, whatever it is, you know, one injury can really just throw off an entire, you know, prop there. So I think that betting it under is generally sharper on the season long aspect. But for this show, we've already gotten through training camp. We've gotten through a lot of potential injury issues already. And these guys are fresh, ready to go. So I'll have, I'll have one under and then three overs here for the show.

That's just my general philosophy. I was shocked to see overs on your card here. So that's all right. Get us started with the first one. Yeah. So my first one here is the under cam acres under 1,225 rushing receiving yards. Right now you can find this at minus one 30 at draft Kings. I mean, this is one that we got down on a little bit ago, but I just keep hitting here.

So as of a few days ago, cam Akers was still not running at full speed while Daryl Henderson had returned fully to practice. They were both full participants in practice earlier in the week. But, I mean, Akers, coming back from an Achilles injury, averaged 2.6 yards per carry last year in the playoffs. And now Sean McVay, all offseason, has basically been saying, I really like Daryl Henderson. I like Cam Akers. And now they drafted Kyron Williams as well,

who's going to play a role in passing downs. So all three of them mixing in, you know, this line is just not projecting for that at all. This is projecting Cam Akers to be, you know, a workhorse or at least get a significant share of the carries. Whereas, you know, I'm projecting him to be, you know, maybe all splitting carries here. So I think between the lack of efficiency and, you know, splitting carries, I think that the under here is definitely the way to go. And was our first week one play as well is also fading K-Makers. So, yeah, I think just we've seen this historically betting against guys that are coming back from this type of injury.

If he's not assured of the workload, I think it's fairly easy to want to fade K-Makers here. So, Pat, get us started. Pop the cherry with your first prop here. Well, let's keep your gutter mouth out away from pat mayo but i'm not sold on this under of cam acres but can i go back to this yeah yeah absolutely yeah guy had poor poor efficiency historically coming back on a small timeline to get ready for the playoff run against three really good defenses i would guess seven months later i know he's not back up to full speed in training camp, but if we came out Thursday night football

and all of a sudden this was, they tried to make him the workhorse when the guy could barely walk. If he's going to be okay, he's going to be the workhorse on this team as long as health can keep it up. So the under, very viable because the re-injury could be up there for Cam Akers.

But this is a spot where at plus money, on the other side, if you're just wrong about how injured he is and this is all sort of a rope-a-dope something that i wouldn't pass put past sean mcveigh that now acres could have like 1900 yards this year it's probably more of a better fantasy allocation whether you're in your draft because he's slipping or even for like draft kings week one showdown no one is using Cam Akers but this could just be an absolute blow-up spot because it's a guy that people were drafting the first round of fantasy drafts last year and now we are a full year removed and I know the history on Achilles isn't very good but just the fact that he was able to come back in four months and actually play on the football field without

re-injuring himself yeah he looked like absolute garbage. No one's going to dispute that, but we've had a lot of time to heal here. Yeah. If you'd consider that playing, you know, I think that that's a very fair, but yeah, I mean, like it's over 12 in the last 10 years on running backs returning from Achilles, but to your point, you know, he should look better. You know, I was, there was a great podcast with Charles Robinson talking about how Sean McVay has changed his philosophical approach because I was scared of fading acres for the same reasons. I thought he'd come back. He'd get the majority of the work on a great offense. But, you know, he mentioned that Sean McVay might have changed. So it's definitely something to look out for in the year.

But I like that. I like that pushback for sure. Yeah. So I'm going with one that did my number one prop is one that I found that was artificially low. I see, Connor, you actually have one that I found that was artificially low. I see Connor, you actually have one that I love, uh, coming up a little bit later. Cause the line just moved. I had been hammering it at the lower number and then DraftKings was like, well, we might as well catch up to the market on this and make it like realistic now. So I can't give that one out anymore. Uh, cause I didn't bet it at that number. That's not something I would come out here and say, listen, when I lose and I give out my losing picks, at least you know that i'm losing along with you it's not like i'm like

you know i played the other side of that no no i'm losing all my money but tom brady over 4600 and a half passing yards is this this low because people think he's not going to make it through the season that he's completely washed up because he just you you know, didn't want to show up to training camp. Who cares? Remember when running backs used to just sit out all the preseason, never go to practice and didn't make a difference? Feel like Tom Brady might be in that realm now as well. I know Godwin's still banged up.

He doesn't even need Godwin for this. A little bit of Julio, a dash of Cameron Bray, a little bit of Russell Gage and all the Mike Evans you can handle, plus four nets receiving out of the backfield, is highly underrated when it comes to overall volume and how that can alleviate some of the pressure on this over-under through the passing game with Tom Brady. I'm looking at my projections right now, and maybe they're a bit high,

but I have Tom Brady leading the league in passing, and I have him upwards of 5,300 yards in a pass-happy offense. That doesn't seem like it's going to change unless there's some sort of injury. Yeah, 5,295 yards. So 4,600 yards that I can get in. What is that? 700 yards less than what my projection is for him. Don't get hurt, Tom.

Or even take a week off to get more hair plugs. I don't just hit this total play normal and he's way over this number is first of all disrespectful that flow is very natural and we don't talk disparagingly about the goat here but we're with you actually we have him projected as the highest um yards on the season as well not quite as high as your 5300 number but we still have them up there. And I think you have a little bit of leeway baked in there, whether it's games missed and whether I think it's the offensive line too. I think they are going to be in less advantageous game scripts at times this year too.

I think like this, that's what I think it's actually kind of bodes well for that too. So I like that play, you know, Connor, where are you at on Brady? No, I like it a lot as well.

I mean, I think there's some offensive line concerns, but outside of that, you know, he'll figure it out. They'll just get it out quicker. He gets it out so quickly. Yeah, right? I feel like it just doesn't even matter. Obviously, you know, we may not see as many, like, deep drops

and, you know, longer throws, but at this point, like, that's probably not what he should be doing anyways. Yeah, like, if this was, I mean, I guess Dak is an interesting example for this. He doesn't lose the center. I mean, it seems like Worfs is going to come back. He'll be fine for Tampa Bay, but like Dak losing Smith, we saw them just play very poorly without Smith around. Like they're thinking about sounding like

40 year old Jason Kelsey at this point, just try to tread water a little bit like that would concern me with Brady. You hit on it. The guy gets a ball at less than two seconds and he can think and dunk you to death and still get to that number even if he's throwing the ball 55 times that's what you want to see and if they do fall behind even better although their neutral pass happiness is always something that you like to see when you're betting passing yard overs it's a lot like the bills it's a lot like the chiefs like they're gonna throw when they're up 28 nothing no big deal yeah with top three pass rate over expectation for like the last five, six years in Brady's career.

So there's a coaching change, but offensively the continuity is there with Lefkowitz still. So it's still Lefkowitz and Brady's offense. So I'm with you. Nothing disparaging to say about Tom here. I'm going to start with an under as well. I'm going to go with Najee Harris under 1,600 and a half yards on DraftKings. This has moved from minus 120 to minus 125.

I would still play it there. I'd probably prefer it to maybe stay at minus 110 and even drop this number down. And it took an insane workload and he barely topped this last year. And I think without Big Ben, who just was a massive check down machine last year, actually Daigle pointed out in his Fades article,

46% of Najee's targets last year came behind the line of scrimmage. Those aren't even targets or like routes run per se. They're just instances of Roethlisberger trying to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible to not get hit. And the coaching staff has been talking up Jalen Warren, who probably is nothing, but I think he likely spells Harris more than McFarlane and Samuels did last year. Still one of the league's worst offensive lines.

Harris ranked dead last 43 out of 43 qualifying backs in yards before contact last season. He's just not explosive. This is just kind of a guy that's, you're banking on a workload. He had 307 carries last year. Four of them went for over 20 yards. So I think we see more of the same. Now we're dealing with maybe a Liz Franks brain that they're like maybe flirting with or telling us that it wasn't a big deal.

Like you just don't want to hear those words at all. So we have him at like 1320 feeling pretty comfortable about an under 1600 on Najee. I think Connor, I think you're with me on this one. No, I like that as well. And I was a little bit worried at first to kind of fade him because of the workload it's just i mean he could literally lead all running backs in touches but you know a lot of the concerns you bring up make a lot of sense i also think that they just don't they don't pass as much they don't get as much play volume off just because ben was in control of the offense last year you know like he goes up the line of scrimmage he doesn't like the play

call he's just gonna change it do whatever he wants so i think kind of now that that's gone you might see a couple more runs but i just don't think you see as much play volume in general there. So he probably doesn't have much past work. And, you know, the list Frank thing, I mean, could be serious. I'm not a doctor, but you know, it, it seems like something that could be, you know, at least worth paying attention to. Pat, any nausea thoughts? Yeah. I mean, I lean to you with the under, it wouldn't be a bet for me because I can cobble together a situation where he gets there. Not easily. Like you said, he just got over it last year, but manufacturing both those yardage totals in exactly the same way that he did a year ago

because he got a hit on it. Like a lot of his receptions were just like, I need to get rid of this ball because I'm about to be sacked because our offensive line sucked. Well, that hasn't changed. It's not like Trubisky is going to have 20 seconds behind the line or pick it. Like they're probably still going to have to do the same thing. And when it comes to Warren spelling, I mean, it could be Warren from something about Mary.

No one's really coming in to spell Najee Harris. That's not how Mike, nothing in Mike Tomlin's history as a head coach points to anything, but an absolute workhorse back. So my projections have him at the under very slightly, and that's not even factoring an injury whatsoever the liz frank thing i'm not too concerned about because it it now sounds like it's being reported that it happened like two months ago and he'll be fine

for week one at full speed but there's there's concerns here like he's not he's gonna get the volume on the ground but what will the efficiency be is he gonna average four yards per carry is he gonna average 3.5 like as long as he's not averaging four and a half five feels like this number is totally safe yeah no you're right i mean even a step down though so like 87 of the snaps last year warren probably doesn't do anything but even if he goes down to 80 which is still like top of the league usage wise again because we're dealing with such limited efficiency i feel pretty good and we have the outs on the injuries, whether it's Liz Frank or something else that happens because the offensive line is crappy. So all right, Connor, number two, buddy. All right. My second one here,

Allen Robinson, over a thousand receiving yards. This is plus one 30 on FanDuel. There are lower numbers out there that you can get for minus one 15. You can get an eight 75 at MGM or other places, but I thought this is the best way to play it. I generally like to get, you know, better juice on my overs here. So, uh, Alan Robinson, I think is in a great position to crush after last year was just a complete disappointment. I'm willing to fully write that off, um, blame it on the offense, blame it on just basically giving up. And from everyone that I've heard, that's, you know, reasonably close to Alan Robinson. They said that he just didn't care anymore. So we throw that season out the window. Um, and now we're looking at a guy who Sean McVay cannot stop talking about is, you know, unprompted showing multiple different beat

reporters, like videos of Alan Robinson, how they're going to use him, moving him around, you know, like just really could not be more excited about the guy. Uh, and you know, I think that, you know, one of the best head coaches in, in the league and one of the most creative play callers being excited about a player, you know, actually matters in this situation where, you know, kind of that usage should translate. And I think we're going to get a good, you know, be able to see that as soon as this Thursday. And if we do want to look at last season, Matt Harmon still had a success rate versus man coverage, you know, well above average. So it was lower than his career, but it was well above average still, which is how often he gets open versus man coverage. You know, originally I was down on him coming into the season,

but I think following, you know, the breadcrumbs and looking like going back and watching him, I think kind of helped me, you know, realign here. And so I think the over at a thousand receiving yards is an interesting look.

Yeah. I'm bullish on a Rob. What are your thoughts, Pat? I'm just very, I have no idea what this offense is going to look like this year. I assume it looks like a lot like last year. I am kind of worried about this tendonitis in Matt Stafford's arm, though,

and whether that affects him throughout the course of the season. But everything that Connor said about Alan Robinson, I mean, even when he got, like, he had COVID, then he came back and he just clearly was not 100%, or that he just really wasn't trying, or maybe some combination of the two. And again, with a bad offensive line, a rookie quarterback or or scrub quarterbacks as they were either running out last year that this is just a much better situation be the number two on a team with a high powered offense that is going to move the ball and be in shootouts a lot of the time as well like the Rams defense is good but

they're not immune to bleeding points at the same time either but, it's a no bet for me. The plus 130 is pretty good though. Like if I'm kind of with Connor that outside of a few overs, I really like if I'm not getting juiced money to bet an over with all like, you know, everything needs to go right for an over to hit, especially with a preseason bet. This is why I don't play a ton of preseason props. And I would shade unders on most of them because, you know, Alan Robinson blows

out his knee week one cash your bet if you got the under kind of thing but a plus 130 that's the spot you want to take it's like my Brady one even money I'm not laying the juice on either side so I would feel more comfortable with those because all of a sudden you don't need to even go 50 50 you need to go like 46 45 and you're still coming away with money. Pat, there are five best rappers of all time. Dylon, Dylon, Dylon, Dylon, Dylon. And I think that you have an AJ Dylon prop for us. Yeah, I'm eating big juice with this.

Minus 130 at DraftKings right now. I love AJ Dillon this year. Or Dylon, hot fire to the end zone. I have no idea how this split is going to work between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon between the twenties at the goal line in the passing game. I would expect Aaron Jones just based like in the games that we didn't see Devante Adams last year, it was a lot of both of them on the field and Aaron Jones splitting out wide

at receiver AJ Dillon in the backfield. I could listen. I'm not a professional NFL scout. Anyone can tell you that. But it does seem like A.J. Dillon's prowess near the goal line is a little bit better than Aaron Jones. That's not to say that Aaron Jones isn't going to have a ton of touchdowns, but I could see him being more involved in the receiving game this year.

So you have multiple outs to me in terms of him hitting this over a five and a half rushing touchdowns. One is he just gets there and he ends up with like nine throughout the course of the season just based on his everyday role of 40 to 55 percent of the snaps given the week because we saw some games last season when both were healthy that dylan out snapped aaron jones and got that goal line work and god forbid what if something happens to aaron jones now aj dylan has 20 touchdowns or something outrageous like that just feel it's like the down the floor of aj dylan's rushing upside minus getting hurt now getting hurt like i said all bets are off we're hoping he doesn't get hurt

in this scenario but he can even miss like three games at five and a half touchdowns he can get three in one game like that's not out of the realm of possibility that's well within his range of outcome so my floor when i made my custom projections was eight and a half touchdowns for a.j dylan and that is not that's assuming he played 46 of the running back snaps in the packers backfield well there's a chance he could play 80 at certain points this year if anything happens to aaron jones so when i calculated floor versus where this number was, it made me far more apt to eat this minus 130. So I'm in. Yeah, I don't typically mess around with touchdown props very much, Connor, but I like this quite a bit.

And I can see to Pat's point, he's almost even kind of leading us there. Is there some upside to maybe even like an alt line? Because I think the ceiling for A.J. Dillon touchdowns is pretty massive. Like all of the talk that we're talking, that we're hearing from green Bay is leaning on our best players. So many question marks in the receiver position. We feel like Aaron Jones is almost going to impact that more than anything else,

where I think we see even more generous than Pat's projection of 46% of the snaps. I think we see a lot of AJ Dillon this year. Oh yeah. And beyond that too, I think that they just go more run heavy in general. So the Packers said that last year, 80% of their first reads were to Devante Adams, like just in their, in their place, 80%, which is sick. I mean, now you have like one of the

worst wide receiving cores in the league. Like they didn't, they were not able to replace them in any fashion at all. So I expect them to go way more run heavy. And then in the red zone, like again, like Devante and Rogers had just a massive connection. So I think that that number of, you know, touchdowns just goes way down as well. So you're looking at Dylan being more involved in there. You said some old lines could be in play here. So I think that that could be another way to attack it here with like 10 plus touchdowns. You could, you can get them at as well at like plus money and 12 at FanDuel.

So if you really want to kind of do the alts, eight, 12, 10, 12 on the ladder, I mean, I wouldn't fault you there either. Yeah. Don't hate that look at all. Big, big AJ Dillon guy this year for sure. Next for me is T Higgins. I'm going over 965 and a half receiving yards. This is available on points bet at minus one 15. He got almost 1100 last year in 14 games. He averaged more targets per game receptions per game and even air yards per game than jamar chase last year he had some other key metrics like a dot whopper yards per target and we're almost identical i think that the gap between these two is a lot closer than they get credit for actually down the stretch weeks 12 through 18 higgins led

the team in catches yards targets and now we're're dealing with Joe Burrow being another year removed from the knee injury. And now we have a offensive line upgrade that I think gives the coaching staff a little bit more confidence. Because when you think about last year, they weren't very aggressive. They were a pretty run-heavy team early in the season. And we were looking for them to kind of turn it on. And then we saw the pass rate over expectation grow as the season went on. And then in the playoffs, we obviously turned it up and we saw what we were hoping for. So now again, another year removed in the offensive lineup grades. I think even with the games lost here, Higgins should be closer to a thousand yards. So I'm comfortable taking him

anywhere under a thousand on the over. So Pat, what are your thoughts on Higgins here? Yeah, I got him projected at like 1375 receiving yards and i guess the difference between chase and higgins albeit everyone kind of remembers the touchdown in the super bowl where he threw ramsey to the ground and like oh that's a real deep shot is that higgins is going to do a lot of like the mutter work in this offense a lot of like 15 yards 15 yard ins 15 yard outs go over the middle use his giant body to catch jump balls down the sidelines where they're gonna throw like bombs and bubble screens to jamar chase and he can go get his yards that way make one guy miss he's gone t higgins isn't that type of receiver he is more

or less their possession receiver with that huge upside as well and like you said as the season went along they passed above expectation the offensive line has improved love this one. This is one of my favorite ones. It's my favorite one that you have written down. Put it that way. I'll take it. I'll take it. Connor, what are your thoughts on Higgins? Nice.

Yeah, we've been projected for 1194. So I think that all the things you guys mentioned there are squarely in play and that he should be a pretty focal point of an offense that I think could take another step forward. So, yeah, I think that over is probably my lean, and anything under 1,000 seems like stealing. I think this should probably be like a thousand fifty you know eleven hundred should be probably be the right line so some good value there it's crazy it's crazy to me to think that alan robinson has a thousand yard receiving line and t higgins has 35 yards less

like right in what world does anyone think that alan robinson is going to be better than t higgins this year yeah not, not happening. Even the best, I think, top 5% outcome for Alan Robinson I don't think is there. So, yeah, reminder if you're hanging out with us in the chat, let us know. Questions, favorite props, thoughts, make fun of us, whatever you want to do. But know that Pat can kick you out. Yeah, make fun of me. You get banned for life, pals.

Figure it out. I'm already getting ripped on in the chat here. Pullover weather in Chicago. It is not pullover weather weather my wife is sick and the house is freezing right now so i gotta pull over on trying to trying to stay cold um stay warm how uh let me take a look at this here for a second let me look at this pull over yeah you got the hard nips on the go don't you gotta get that to cover that up yeah yeah yeah i gotta cover them i mean i did try on a couple other shirts and they were not working. So I had to cover the cover the Tic Tacs there.

Third prop for me, Trey Lance over 530 rushing yards. You know, I like this one a lot. We haven't checked for over 600 rushing yards. He had 4189 and 31 rushing yards in about two and a half games last season. I mean, even we round of three games, you know, this is this is a well over pace. And I think that that's not necessarily fair to extrapolate, obviously such a small sample size, but at the same time, you know, I think that that kind of showed what he's capable of. And beyond that, now he has a full off season to work with the offense, you know, kind of be able to structure

more runs, you know, for a guy like Lance, who's, I expect them to go really run heavy this year. And his throwing, I mean, all the reports to go really run heavy this year and his throwing. I mean, all the reports have been that it's been all over the place. One day we get a report that he's throwing three picks in practice. The next day, you know, they're saying he's Patrick Mahomes. So what are we going to get? I don't know in the throwing game, but I expect there to be tons of running the ball. And so the told Jimmy G thing, I mean, I can understand I'll put it pouring a little bit

of cold water on any Lance overs, but I mean, maybe I'm going on a limb here. I think this is something we can discuss. I don't think it really matters at all. You know, I think that the whole Jimmy G thing is, you know, they openly traded him all offseason. We're going to trade him. They didn't get the price they wanted. He was willing to take a price reduction.

Now they have one of the best backups in the league behind him. And they drafted Lance kind of knowing that they were going to get that roller coaster. They wanted that upside. They wanted that, you know, potential to win games for them and not just be there and manage a game like Jimmy G. So I'm thinking that they're willing to ride the roller coaster. Like, I think he would have to be like aggressively terrible for him to get benched for Jimmy G, uh, like to the point where he's losing games.

So I know that that is not a popular take in the industry, but one that I'm willing to stick by here. And if anyone wants to, you know, in the chat wants to get some action down on that, I'm very willing to figure something out there. This is one I had identified as well. I've been betting it all off season at 500 and a half. And then the lines are getting juiced at DraftKings. I think it got up to like minus one 60.

And then they eventually just caught up with the rest of the market with that line. Yeah. I mean, there's, there's myriad ways that the under hits on this but just extrapolating even from that small sample what lance did last year what are we putting that at like 12 rushes a game yeah what do we we got that last year when i think it was that arizona game

remember like it i think it opened it like rushing attempts was like six and a half and he had like seven by the middle of first quarter yeah i think I think because, too, you have this naturally with a guy who is struggling with all reports as a passer, and you just have that natural instinct of like, hey, maybe first read. If he gets to the second progression, great. But if there's nothing there, he's going to lean on his athleticism and tuck it in and run. And I think that all those things lead to rushing yards.

And I'm kind of with Connor on the Jimmy G thing. I'm not super worried about it. I think it's a I'm kind of with Connor on the Jimmy G thing. I'm not super worried about it. I think it's a team just kind of covering their ass, making sure that, hey, we're ready and we have everything else clicking. And this is the one thing holding us back. Reluctantly, they have that at least to fall back on. And if he gets hurt, then they still can be contenders because they know that Jimmy can walk right into that. So I think with the way they handled this offseason, basically having Garoppolo not even involved in meetings, they want to be really clear that it's going to be hard for him to get benched from a performance standpoint, I think. So I'm with it. I'm not shy away from

any Trey Lance overs because of that. I had a question, Connor, is the reason that you took the Allen Robinson at that site that I've never heard of at plus one 30 at a thousand yards. Is it because the juice was too like that's an outline, right? Right. Yeah. It's an all live. So the regular line is eight 25 on, on one site. And then you're able to find some eight 75s at like minus one 15 minus one 20. Our projections right at a thousand. So I was just playing. I, again, like we talked about earlier, like I'd rather with betting overs, you know, take an even or, you know, a plus juice plus money juice where I think I have enough of an edge. I also sprinkled a bit on 1250 receiving yards at six to one. I mean,

I I'm, I'm drinking all the Allen Robinson Kool-Aid this off season. So that's fine. But I, I think that the age 75, eight 25, if you want to lay the juice, you're more comfortable with that is more than fine as well. Yeah. Eight, eight 25.5 minus one 40. Uh, current as we speak at DraftKings Sportsbook, and I was just looking at my projections I have them at 1025 over the course of 17 games I mean there's a reason that one is juiced to minus 140 it seemed to be one that everyone hit right away yeah yeah it's too late all right Pat what do you got all right we want to do our combo right now we're going to hash this out yeah you know I think we can both win this bet. So I'll let you get started. So Jahan Dotson under 611.5 receiving yards.

Here's the thing. Carson Wentz sucks. Not good. And that's a problem when you're trying to hit over yardage. Now, do you want to say what yours is? I am taking Jahan Dotson over 49 and a half receptions, minus 115 on draft case because Carson Wentz sucks. And this football team is going to be behind.

They're going to have to be in passing situations. And I think the routes that they're going to get from Dotson are going to be safer drags. And we've seen it a lot, even in the preseason, we've seen these shallow cross mesh looks, lots of little layups and screens, things that can pad his catchable target rate. Guy did not drop a pass at Penn State. I think he'd do a great job at creating separation.

And I think they're going to want to use McLaurin more down the field, similar to maybe even how we're referencing the Chase Higgins combo. So I think how they're going to use Dotson will impact his yardage ceiling, but I think he's going to have a lot of catchable targets. So that's kind of why I'm on the over at 49 and a half. We have him at 67. So I actually have my purge with the baseline projections that I ran before I went and edited it because I didn't like what it told me.

So I had to edit it to come up with a better situation because I had him as a slight over on the yardage. And again, a slight over on the yardage and again a slight over on the yardage just really points me towards unders because you miss one game all of a sudden you're way under what that number is going to be if it was a coin flip to be over in the first place but i i really think there's two things that i really believe and even three uh now that we're likely i mean i have no idea when b when Brian Robinson is going to come back, if he's going to come back,

but that probably means we're going to see more J.D. McKissick on the field, and the type of routes that you're talking about seem to be the ones that McKissick might be in competition with Dotson with. I'm with you on McLaurin. He's going to stretch the field, and if I had one of the 10, 15 best receivers in football, that's a guy. Just look at the Colts last year.

McLaurin's going to be better Michael Pittman in terms of what Carson Wentz can do with him. Not to say that, I just think that a talent, he is better than Michael Pittman, but hopefully that comes through. Now, Pittman's probably gonna have a superior like stat season than what McLaurin's gonna have this year.

But those are the routes that, and Carson Wentz hasn't found a deep jump ball. He's not afraid. There's no quad coverage. He's not afraid to throw into, and those are all going to be McLaurin targets. So now you have to have the underneath stuff. So you have dots in mid range underneath these high percentage targets.

Where are those going to go? Are they all going to go to Dotson? No, because you have McKissick, Logan Thomas looks like he might be back for like week two. So now you throw him into the mix and everything that people are projecting sorry tough speaking onto Dotson well Curtis Samuel looks like he's going to be healthy as well and those are exactly the type of routes that he runs it just feels like there's too much going on that if he doesn't have this huge breakaway potential to make one guy miss and go

70 yards that I really do think we can both win this bet. I did too. I mean, the last time we saw, first of all, we don't see Curtis Samuel play football games. Uh, but last time he played, he was running a lot of, I guess, the empty calorie routes. Again, Carolina for the most part, because we haven't seen him much since he's been in Washington. Um, I'm with you. I mean, Logan Thomas is trending in a different direction than we thought maybe early in the season. So that's good. I mckissick is going to be impactful for sure um but again more you know like dump offs and screens and stuff like that i still think they're going to again you also see sometimes too when you have this first round draft capital sunk into a receiver that you almost want to prove that it was the right thing too so i think they will force feed some targets too. Now again, Carson Wentz sucks. So that's a

problem, but because of how I think he's going to be used, I do think that we can both win. We actually have a slight lean on the yards over as well. We have a bigger gap and edge in the targets and I really liked the target number. So yeah, I think this is kind of a bad football team. I think Connor and I maybe both shorted them in the preseason market. I think there are lots of ways that things go wonky here. You know, Daigle is very, anytime you give him a platform to talk about Carson Wentz and tell you how bad he is, he gets like Connor on a cold day, gets all perked up there. But Connor, do you want to break the tie or can we both win? I mean, so I think you can both win, but I will say that I would definitely lean towards the under

on just like anything Washington passing related just in general because like I don't think I've actually taken a single over on any team with like just poor quarterback player, just like an offense that could be that bad. So, I mean, just because there's so many things that can go wrong. I mean, like Carson Wentz could literally be, which I already think he is, you know, like a bottom five, six, seven quarterback in the league.

And so what if he's bottom three? Like what if the bottom falls out? You know, like that's very much in the range of outcomes for a guy who's progressively gotten worse and worse since his, you know, whatever potential MVP season. And now has, I mean, the most questionable supporting cast in a while, I guess. Like, you know, I guess McLaurin's better than Michael Pittman and you could say what you want about Dotson, but I think the Unders here are probably my lean

if I am betting one way. Yeah, and it takes out all the risk of any sort of missed game. The Under does. Absolutely. Yeah. Hey, Tyler Heineke coming in is probably not the end of the world from where I'm standing here either. Well, I couldn't figure that out.

What was the point of getting Wentz when you had a guy who is equally as good or potentially better than him anyway? So the Dan Snyder just sell tickets, you know, pretend like it's like treading water. You know what I mean? When, well, they think that they're moving forward, but they're just actually just moving in the same place. You just think that you had this guy with a pedigree

that has shown a blimp of talent and skills, albeit five years ago and a few surgeries ago, but I'm with you. I mean, last year, there's no reason that team should not have made the playoffs outside of what Carson Wentz failed to do in the last couple of weeks with the Raiders game. And then obviously the Jacksonville game in the last week of the season. So yeah, I think they're going to be a pretty bad football team and I'm hoping that

Dotson gets lots of dump offs for three, four yards and Pat and I can both celebrate at the end of the year and cash those tickets. So, all right, Connor, bring it up the rear. Last one. Yeah. So last one for me, Corlin Sutton over 62 and a half receptions, minus 115 at DK. This is just like way, way off our projections. We haven't met 85 receptions, which I think might even be a little too aggressive, but 62 and a half receptions for the season assumes about 3.6 receptions per game. You know, I'd assume that his weekly over under will probably be around four and a half. He'll now be receiving, you know, the best and most efficient targets of his career by far.

And Russell Wilson, even prior to his injury last year was sixth in CPOE EPA composite. So he was efficient, even though down the stretch, he wasn't playing as well. Now working, you know, side by side with Nathaniel Hackett to kind of build the offense around, you know, what his strengths around play action around, you know, being able to emphasize Corlin Sutton and Jerry Judy. Also Tim Patrick's injury, I think, you know, kind of spreads the targets out. You know, those targets are kind of spread out throughout the offense. Not all going to go to Sutton, obviously, or Judy.

But I think that that probably also bumps up his target ceiling a little bit as well. So I'm anticipating him, you know, being the number one target. And most of the reports said that as well. And so I think that, you know, 62 and a half is just a smidge low. I think it should probably be closer to like 75, 72 and a half on the over under for a median outcome there. So I think that's pretty comfortable amount of room given our projections and the line here.

Yeah. Where do your projections have something male? Inconclusive because the range of outcomes I just feel is so high with a guy that we've just seen nothing but him being banged up all the time. And then when he wasn't banged up, he had the worst possible situation. Like there's a chance he's bad. Like I hate to say it, but that's, and that's in his range of outcomes at this point because there's so little information outside of like a three-month stretch when he was amazing and then but we've seen receivers do that before and then we don't ever hear from them again i i

would lean with connor that the overs are most definitely the side i would want to be on but i'm a bit tepid to go on in a player just, I have a very, listen, you know, we're paid here to talk about all this stuff. But I think to be honest, like you can't cap every player perfectly. There's some players that you feel like you have a better beat on a better read on. And other guys are just like, man, I don't know the entire Denver offense outside of Russell Wilson is just a big question mark to me of like, what if Judy's just way better and Russell Wilson loves Judy? And you're like, oh, should have seen that coming. And it'll make sense once you watch the games play out.

And it could be the inverse. It could be Sutton and Judy does nothing like none of these scenarios will shock me. And that leads me away from committing my money for 18 weeks into a prop over something that just I have no real feel for. Yeah, that's a good call. I mean, you can't, can't have locked on takes with everyone. Connor, you had a rebuttal. No, I mean, just to be fair, I think that both, I think the whole offense is just like elevated in general. So like,

you know, I, to your point, Corlin Sutton may very well not be good. And I think that he could still get there because just like, he's seeing so many targets from an efficient quarterback in Russ that it should be, it should be okay. So unless he literally can't separate, can't do anything, his jump ball is just lost, which is very much possible. But yeah, I think that just the quarterback upgrade should be so massive that I think that they could all still kind of get there. But the running back situation too, I mean, just in general, there's so much in flux there in Denver that I really don't know what to make of most of it, especially from a fantasy perspective. Mayo, last one.

Last one. I'm going under 25 and a half passing touchdowns for the guy who replaced Carson Wentz. Matt Ryan in Indianapolis right now. Minus 120 at DraftKingsSportsBook.com. I've been trying to find the right leader. We're friends of the show. We could say friend of the show, right? Who's the friend of the show we could say friend of the show right who's the friend of the show matt right draft kings we can embrace big fan friend of me at least so people should uh bet on drafting sportsbook.com that's what i think that's my

opinion on the matter and i will tell you about this but it's funny because i i mean i probably watched like every snap of carson wentz last year that's how I know he's bad. But here's the thing. He ran so hot last year with fumbles that went out of bounds that should have went to the other team picks that just weren't brought down, like horrible decision making, throwing the ball left handed for no reason and suffered no penalties for it whatsoever. So even though Matt Ryan is an upgrade over carson wentz can he actually do better than carson wentz did last year because carson wentz should have been 40 worse than the numbers he actually put up so like a good matt ryan season will be slightly better than what wentz did last year like matt ryan played on a team that was playing from behind

most of the time a year ago uh i mean, their defense wasn't very good. So they continued to have to throw the ball, but he wasn't throwing the ball. He averaged like right around like 28 pass attempts per game. I would envision that the Colts are going to have a higher run rate than what we're going to see out of what Atlanta did last season, although Atlanta ran the ball way too much for what they were trying to accomplish.

It's just all these numbers. Like you don't, for Matt Ryan to be good on the Colts doesn't mean he needs to throw 5,000 yards or hell even 4,000 yards. Just no picks, get the ball to Michael Pittman, go on your way. So I think he'll be right in this neighborhood. And again, when like my projection is below this,

mine is at 23.9 in terms of where my baseline projection for Matt Ryan is for passing touchdowns for the season. And he gets hurt for two games. All of a sudden he's nowhere near that. So I just feel like there's a run heavy team. Jonathan Taylor is going to score a ton of touchdowns. I would, I mean, obviously you can't parlay props everywhere, but if you could do a correlated prop parlay under the 39 3900 yards

and under the 25 and a half touchdowns i just i don't see this being a huge passing offense yeah 24th in pass rate over expectation last year and i could see more of the same because the division sucks the schedule is really nice they should be in heavy run situations and i think the argument would be like jonathan taylor had more carries inside the five last year than anyone else had inside the 10. So if they decide to get a little bit more pass heavy around the red zone, that could lead to some more touchdown opportunities for, for Matt Ryan. But that's again, leaning under makes a ton of sense. What are your thoughts, Connor? Yeah. I mean, we haven't projected for 21.6. So we're even lower than Pat. I mean, that's a, that's a great call out there too. And beyond that, you know, I would heard from some local media, you know, in Indianapolis

that literally no wide receivers outside of Michael Pittman can separate. Like they're just getting locked down every single practice by the Colts defense. Like no one can separate. And it's literally just throwing to Michael Pittman every play. So is Michael Pittman going to score 25 touchdowns? My fantasy teams hope so, but I highly doubt that. You know, I just don't think that it really pans out. So I think that Matt Ryan under there is a great look.

Well, you also have to hedge against. Who was that random dude on the Colts last year who kept catching all those stupid touchdowns and had to go learn his name eight times? Ashton Doolin, is he still on the team? Still on the team. I may like him. I don't know.

We'll see. We'll see, yeah. Lots of opportunities for the second receiver role, but because of that, I think that's another reason where there's just not anyone that can emerge that you think this is going to be a red zone pass happy offense. So you probably see some of those unsustainable Jonathan Taylor inside the five and 10 carries again, because just what they want to do. And let's not pretend like Matt Ryan outside of his MVP or has had a whole lot of red zone passing success in his career.

Like shoot. Don't we complain about one Falcon every year who's supposed to be really good because man, why does he only have one touchdown this year? Like that was the Julio argument for 20 years. It was the pits argument last year. Maybe he's just not good in tight spaces. Yeah, it's a good call. Yeah.

We always tie that to Julio kind of letting us down and touchdown opportunities, but yeah, maybe it's a Matt Ryan thing. Good call. Last for me, Mike Gusecki under 55 and a half receptions. This is minus one 15 on bet MGM. I get the pro Gusecki argument, like centering around is what's that. Do you get the argument? I mean, just as far as like a, like athleticism and you you know like there's i think measurable like he came out of the combine and everyone loved him he's a shorts and t-shirt

guy like you would love to have him on your flag football team with your buddies but it just doesn't seem to be kind of clicking for him in the nfl trade rumors obviously this past week and then you look at how they used him in the preseason finale he was on the field for just eight of 17 of two of snaps. Dern Smythe was on for 14. And there's a person named Seethon Carter. This gentleman was on the field for seven. Never heard of him, to be honest. And I get paid to do this.

So one less snap. So there's obviously new competition at the tight end position here. Route participation down to just 65%. And he was used in line, like a traditional tight end, almost exclusively. Last year, he was barely used that way. He was in line 12% of the time. So again, big slot last year. Now he's being used like a tight end.

And then new head coach Mike McDaniel comes over from San Fran. San Fran was 31st in pass rate over expectation last year they like to run the football you would expect with the offensive line upgrades the upgrades at the running back position with Connor's boy Chase Edmonds Rene Mostert I think they're going to try to run the ball a little bit they're just seem again and target competition right Tyreek I think there's just a lot of outs here for Gusecki to go under this number we have him barely projected under but I think if's just a lot of outs here for Gusecki to go under this number. We have him barely projected under, but I think if we gave a refresh to that number here in the next 24, 48 hours, I think it even drops below 50. So give me under on Gusecki. I just don't think

he's going to be involved. Yeah, I feel like this is a number that maybe, again, they're just kind of lying to us about the usage that Gusecki is going to get, because if they do play him not in line, out of the slot, which is where you're going to see because if they do play him not in line out of the slot which is where you're going to see a lot of Tyreek and Waddle which would make no sense let's just say that's the case he would have an excellent opportunity in this offense to be the guy who isn't covered running seams down the field so like you you look back at the end of the season it's like oh it was 80 for 1300 yards from Mike Gusecki okay far more likely it's like 23 catches for 300 yards based on what we're seeing from them right now.

There's just not that much to go around low pass volume, and you kind of hit on it. They want to use these in-line tight ends. Dude can't block to save his life. It's not like he's George Kittle. I mean, receiving-wise, Kittle's better, but like Gesicki's a comparable. Kittle's one of the best blockers in football. So, I mean, at the tight end position.

He's not like a left tackle or anything, but you can put him in line. He's getting dudes out of the way. He is enhancing your running game. He's like, he is a negative in the running game with the way they want to run play action and not even bringing in Edmonds and Mostert, Colonel Mostert, you know, he's going to hit you with a candlestick. He's going to take off to the end zone, but with Waddle and Hill in the backfield too not necessarily the same way that they use debo as a running back but giving these guys jet sweeps and involving them that way is going to be a big part of this offense so you know if you say san francisco was 31st in passing above expectation i would expect miami to be 31st 32nd 30th and just there's not that many targets to go

around you you think you're gonna have a few games where it's like he's gonna get 12 targets and tyreek hill gets three and he's not gonna complain and make life miserable for everyone not a chance not gonna happen yeah yeah theoretically you could say hey now because he's not the big slot he's probably getting more advantageous matchups right he might get linebackers in a way that he didn't get last year where he was getting maybe safeties or even corners at times because really outside of wall last year it was nothing but i think this is very different and we're just seeing in the usage and i think you can kind of make whatever you want of pre-season usage but i think there's enough here to know that there's a reason based on the tendencies of the new coaching staff of what they want to do and they just want the inline tight end like

pat said like they want to run the football they want to have that versatility pre-snap to be able to bring the guy in line and have them option into a run. And Gusecki is a liability as a pass blocker. And I think he's just going to be on the field less. Yeah, I mean, you guys hit on most of it. But two things I want to add. So, I mean, Mike McDaniel was not just the offensive coordinator. He was also the run game coordinator.

So, you know, that's kind of like that's his roots. And that's what he wants. So it was not just Shanahan saying, we're going to run the ball. It's like that. Those are, that's his roots and that's what he wants. So it was not just Shanahan saying we're going to run the ball. It's like that. Those are that's actually what he wants to do as well. And there were some Gusecki trade rumors, which actually might hurt this bet, honestly, more than helps. But I think that, you know, that kind of shows what light they view him in right now and that, you know, he's not really a valuable asset to them. It doesn't really fit what they're looking to do. So what do you think is a reasonable expectation for his target share this year?

Because my baseline had him at 16 percent. I don't believe that. So I have to put it down. If I have to punch this into projections, what do you think is a reasonable expectation for his target share this year? Because my baseline had him at 16%. I don't believe that, so I have to put it down. If I have to punch this into projections, what do you think that would be? 12K. Let's put him at 12. And no, no, no. 1620 is not what I want to do here. That's going to make him way over.

So let's put him at 12% target share in this offense, an offense that we all expect not to pass as much. I'll put them at a 49% rush rate of 51 49. Does that sound reasonable? So let's see what that spits out. Now that I have these in here, where are you at? Sticky, gaseous. Oh boy. He goes way down to 40 catches and 450 yards. And that's what's still with a 12% target share. Yeah. Which i think is probably still generous to be honest yeah i i i agree with you yeah i like sticky get sicky too

um not this year not in the fantasy teams and we're taking the under on that um if it's on drafting sports book we advise you to bet it there um but look for it wherever you can find your props i think it's going to be a nice lean um all right let's get to the questions we have about 10 minutes left so we leave some time for producer sal to share his prop um producer sal ran real hot last year using the prop tool um questions we need more from you guys but uh question for pat max wants to know if you can appeal for reinstatement after two years um after being banned or is that a lifetime ban it's a lifetime ban here like what are we doing to your bands give your head a shake i you it's you basically joined the live tour when you are banned for life

from the chat that is not a compliment uh cedric thoughts about the Trade thoughts about that trade DeAndre Swift and DeAndre Johnson Cedric I think you're going to be our first band buddy What show are you watching This is not a fantasy football show We do not want to handle your Trade questions we have that team app

The most accurate podcast they can Handle all that for you Cedric Wait hold on no hold on. No, hold on. Actually, I kind of like this one. Damn it, Pat. So do you get Swift and Deontay Johnson or do you give them up? I mean, do you want two Cowboys coming back? No, no, that's the answer.

Take the Swift and Deontay Johnson side. And then ban that guy for asking a fantasy football question on a betting show can we swear on the show i yes oh yeah fuck yeah i teased you up for that one and you just oh no listen i'm not just gonna do it because you want you know what why don't you have some fucking balls and ban people yourself for life that's fair that's fair uh pat mentioned this alan robertson actual number uh 825 and a half on DraftKings. Again, Connor gave us one early in the show, plus money boosted up because he feels really, really good about that one.

Max, still here, has not been reinstated. My bookie doesn't have any props yet, but I really like Nick Chubb to lead the league in rushing yards. Yeah, we have him like fifth in rushing yards. I mean, questions obviously with this offense, with not having Sean Watson for a little bit. Jacoby Brissett was really bad last year and has been kind of bad the last, well, forever being in the NFL.

Obviously, he's a great offensive line. They are going to probably lean on the run even more because of Brissett. But gentlemen, have any thoughts on nfl leading russia props or nick chubb in general now do you guys have a like a in a like a sponsorship or any sort of contact with my bookie by chance we do not don't ever play there there's a reason they call them my crookie they'll steal your money that's not a lie that that's happened to multiple people i know oh yeah dane in the chat here says if you only have my bookie find another hobby i think that is kind of leading to that uh yeah you have to uh here's the problem with the chubb overall i i kind of agree with the thought process that goes behind it like brissette can

hand off that's the one thing you that and throw it really really long down the field you can do that and he can hand the ball off that's about the the limits of what Jacoby Brissett can do at this point. The problem is I think you're going to see Hunt somewhat mixed in, but I think you're going to get a splattering of Dearness Johnson a lot because his team's going to try to run a lot and it's not going to be like, hey,

Nick Chubb, you're used to getting your 21 carries a game. Now you have 33. He's just going to stay around where he's at. I haven't projected for fourth in the league in rushing yards, but he's so behind taylor and henry that it's really a lot to overcome yeah i mean i think the biggest issue with these markets too in general is like betting the chalk in large field markets especially with the like in football is just not something that i generally do because there's just so much volatility guys come out of nowhere uh you know like they're and there's three guys here at the top like taylor henry chubb who are all just like super likely i think to really lead the league

in rushing potentially and there's that doesn't even factor in you know potentially other guys coming in and you know crushing it i mean like what if what if saquon has a great year or you know penny finally stays healthy for 16 games i mean i don't really you know they could squarely be in play or all it takes is one or two games of Chubb somehow sitting out, which, you know, it's very possible for him to not be in play there.

So yeah, like, like if all of a sudden Najee Harris averages for this season, five yards per carry, he's probably the rushing leader for sure. 3.9 last year is an aggressive. No, no,

I like he's, he's going to get a lot of people who are actually going to have the volume. Like who are the running backs even capable outside of like some weird outlier season that they're going to play so many snaps, get so many carries that they're going to have a chance. You have Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, Derek Henry, Joe Mixon, Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Chubb, Kamara, maybe.

And then everyone else is just kind of in a split spot. Like DeAndre Swift should be really good, but I wouldn't expect him to have 300 carries. I think that also leads to like, what if, you know, what if Jamal Williams or Melvin Gordon gets hurt? Then you have Javante Williams and DeAndre Swift just in absolute smash situations. Oh, no, no, no.

That would not be a smash situation for DeAndre Swift. Trust me on that one. They will use Craig Reynolds or some other person I've never heard of. Maddening. Last one. We have a question about the Vikings over 420.5 points on the regular season. Connor gave out a similar number, 430, I think it was, on the Broncos. But you did some work on this because I'm not well-versed in this market

or kind of points on the season, but I know you did some work here. Yeah. So actually Dane from the chat mentioned this one as well to me earlier, but I think this one's just a little bit thin. So they had like 430 and 425 the past two years, obviously with Zimmer there. I expect a pretty big change here with bringing in Kevin O'Connell from the Rams. I think we're going to see a lot different of an offense here, and I'm excited for them, so I definitely will lean over. I like the over there, but it's just something that I don't really know we're going to see, and it seems a little bit more volatile, whereas for the Broncos, we had 425 and a half points.

Russell Wilson has averaged more than 25 points per game in 7 out of 10 years, even with Seattle, and you have to be that's like half of, you have to be like the top half of the league is scoring essentially to hit the over on this. So again, I like the over here because I expect the Vikings to be very clearly in the top half of the league of scoring.

But, you know, it's just a little bit more thin for me. Whereas the Broncos one felt like an easier one to hit. When you start looking at these things too, like I have that right on the margin. Like I would like you lean over from the overall projections. Sometimes projections don't tell the entire story like you know at green bay january 1st outdoors and frigid conditions at the bears january 8th like those don't sound like the

most appealing situations like if they were in minnesota you're indoors great conditions but all of a sudden you put two of these cold weather games at the very end of the season when they may or may not need to pile like you're playing the bears i mean you guys are local um how many points it's gonna take to beat the bears this season four that's generous yeah yeah four three three for the field goal yeah they're fucking terrible yeah a field goal in a rouge you you're good to go. Yeah. I think weeks 11 through 16, they are in a dome, regardless of where they are. As you mentioned, the last two weeks, though, is you're going to need to get over the total here.

You're going to need them to have some nice outputs. Bears defense is terrible, but again, you never know what that's going to look like, regardless of how bad the Bears defense is. The best defense to keep us away from this number could just be the elements so there are plenty of outs of that so good stuff uh again remember join us next week jump in the chat let us know your thoughts I'm going to kick it to producer Sal I'm going to put you on the

spot Sal um you can let me know if you don't have them but I think you have our prop of the week here. I didn't see the screen, so I wasn't sure if he did. Here we go. Put him on the spot. A.J. Brown, over 70 and a half receptions, plus 100 available on DraftKings Sportsbook. We have him projected just a tick under 81 on the season. Pat, first thoughts. A.J. Brown, over 70 and a half catches. 70 and a half catches? Yep. Eh, I got no feel for this Eagles passing game.

It's just a straight pass for me. I mean, I guess, Connor, you could probably speak to this a little bit better after it was week six or week seven, like their pass over expectation did like the complete flip and all they wanted to do was run the ball. And they, they projected me pretty good this year too, that I just think they run too much for a lot of Eagles receiving overs. Right. Yeah. We, I mean, weeks one through six, they were a top three and pass right over expectation. And then the rest of the season, they were, uh, I believe second to last in pass right

over expectation. So literally a full flip mid season. So, yeah, I, I agree though. I think for what it's worth, AJ Brown, I think he's a better fantasy option than a, um, option in the prop market, like a binary. Yes. No, because his upside, I mean, he's an awesome player. If for some reason they do go past heavy, if him and Hertz have a great connection,

it's a lot of ifs to, to on for a binary you know prop whereas for fantasy i think those ifs could you know end up with him being like a top one or two fantasy receiver if all that hits so i'm more willing to bet on him there and i'd be far more likely to take the yardage over the receptions for aj brown because almost like i spoke about jamar chase earlier he is another hit him on a slant he gone and you know that's one catch that's gonna hurt you in the race to get to 71 it's not gonna hurt you in the yardage when you have a couple long touchdowns thrown in here's where i keep coming back to in the aj brown thing and really the passing game

in general here in philly is hertz was frightened to throw over the middle last season. He had 10% of his attempts on the year over the middle of the field. It was 12% below the league average and comfortably the lowest in the league. And then AJ Brown, on the other hand, 60% of his targets last year came on in breaking routes. So it just isn't a mesh. I know there's the narrative of like, these guys are buddies and all that stuff. And like, we want to be more bullish on the eagles um but again like something's going to be have to be

solved there he's obviously not comfortable throwing over the middle of the fields um so again that's a big thing that they have to fix and i think to pat's point like the receptions i'd probably shy away from i lean on the yards if i want to take a pro aj brown stance but from what i've heard is we don't want to fade Sal on any of these things. That's probably the move is to go with him on this. But more on the Jalen Hurts not over the middle point, because Pat's going to bring his own football experience in here, which is very relevant to the conversation.

But another short guy playing quarterback. You know what I had to do a lot when I was taking snaps? Roll one way or roll the other way, because I couldn't see over the center's head to the middle of the field. And Jalen Hurts is a smaller guy behind guys that are 6'7", 6'8". And if you're not taking huge five-step drops, which he doesn't normally, he's usually rolling out one way or another. It just makes getting back to the center of the field,

all of a sudden you're throwing across your body, which is the last thing you ever want to do. So unless they explicitly put those routes into the playbook and they may because it's aj brown if that's what he's more comfortable with running than they will but i just think for jalen hurts in order to utilize his skill set best get him more into open space where he can see the entire field downfield is that just short over the middle is just not a route that he's ever really going to throw. Did you have like 20 yard end zones in like youth? Oh yeah. Oh yeah.

We got, we got the worst part is we had to play with the CFL ball even in like high school. And the CFL ball was huge. And like, I don't have the, I have like little John Beck Kearney hands anyway, like gripping this thing.

It was like, you remember those old KFC balls that had Shaq's handprint on them? Yeah. He could just grip a basketball like that. That's how my hand looks on like a mini basketball. His hands like eight times the size of mine. Like, I don't know.

It was tough to like, especially when you were rolling left as a righty, trying to come back and throw like that's pick city. Like you just don't have accuracy on those throws. And especially, listen, I don't have the speed of Jalen hurts. So it makes more sense to roll him anyway

than you give him the pass and run option if there's daylight. And I just, I don't think that Sirianni's going to go away from that. I think that puts Jalen Hurts into his best position to succeed, make accurate throws, limit turnovers, and get the offense moving forward. That's why you see a lot of these, like, deep corner routes to Devonta Smith. And I'm sure we're going to see them with A.J. Brown this season but though that's a very popular route for Jalen Hurts to throw roll right try to hit someone down the right sidelines like that's the Eagles offense is pretty predictable yeah yeah I'm bullish on the Eagles but I think I have some trepidation on AJ Brown overs and just want

to see how this kind of to match this kind to Pat's point earlier, it's just okay to not have strong, super locked intakes on everybody. We're going to have some variety and some variance that can mix in with how these guys, especially moving to a new team and all the things that we're worried about with the Eagles. I mean, really, there's so much upside with this team outside of what we know Hurts can be and what his ceiling is. We still don't know.

So if you were watching live on YouTube, this tool here is our prop finder tool tied to our projections on four, four.com. Again, part of the betting sub, one of the many tools in our suite of tools on site, find that information in the show notes here, whether you're listening on YouTube or in podcasts.

So again, fading Sal is dangerous business. We don't want to do that very often, but Sal, thanks for sharing that. Episode one in the books, gentlemen. Appreciate it very much. We will be back next week. Again, same spot every Friday, 2 p.m. Eastern,

live on YouTube. Again, you'll find it later on podcast forum. Pat, where can everyone find all the rest of your stuff if they are somehow unfamiliar with the Mayo experience? Well, Pat Mayo Experience Audio Podcast. I'm giving away a thousand bucks right after week one. All you got to do is sub, rate, and review. Even if you don't listen to the show, you might as well get into the draw, right?

Pump up Pat's numbers. It's a little bit. So Pat Mayo Experience on Apple or Spotify. All the videos are on the Mayo Media Network on YouTube. And I'm at the PME on Twitter where I am literally the worst Twitter follow in the world. It's just a spam account. But then you get to know and go and you can find, you know, Jeff and Tim

and the nonsense that comes from Tim. Some of the takes the other day with the Dolphins were absolutely fantastic. And definitely want to check that out again. Head over to the Fine fine patch pat mayo on youtube you can find all the shows find the afc east podcast in an episode highly highly recommend um that's a serious person giving what he intends to be is serious takes and i think that it's something that you should have in the back of your mind when you take all that in is

is great content so uh for pat and connor i'm ryan we'll see you all next week