Move The Line - Best Week 1 NFL Bets: Jaguars Should be Money, Chiefs Will Soar & More Top Picks

Episode Date: September 9, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their expert NFL betting picks for Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season and divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook!0:00 Intro4:15 Connor Bet #1 - Jags Moneyline (+120, FanDuel)0:20 Ryan Bet #1 - Bengals -6.5 (-106, FanDuel)12:21 Daigle Bet #1 - Titans -5.5 (-107, PointsBet)15:01 Connor Bet #2 - SF -6.5 (-120, FanDuel)20:46 Ryan Bet #2 - KC Team Total Over 30.5 Points (+100, BetMGM)26:15 Daigle Bet #2 - PHI/DET Game Total Over 48.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)28:46 Connor Bet #3 - PHI -3.5 (-120, FanDuel)32:10 Ryan Bet #3 - Ravens -7 (-110, DraftKings)37:58 Daigle Bet #3 - Saints -5.5 (-107, PointsBet)42:38 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan, excited to be back in this space to talk about real games, real NFL football. No more guessing, no more speculation, no more futures. It is time for week one. This episode of Move the Line is brought to you by our friends at Underdog Fantasy and their Pick'Em Games. You can head over to 444.com slash underdog to find out how new Underdog users can get a 100% deposit match up to $100 and a free pro subscription to 444. This offer is good for new and returning 444 subs. This offer, though, only applies to new underdog accounts.

Accounts, very key word. Also, underdogs pick-em contest. You can up to 20 extra money in one night. All you have to do is pick the right side of an over and under, up to two props. You get those rights, and you win. two props uh you get those rights and you win you pick up to five correctly and you can 20 extra entry so again head over to 444.com underdog for more details joining me here i'll move the line as always my friends conor allen and john daigle daigle how you doing buddy i know you've been grinding i know you're excited to at

least get the grind started that means we're closer tole, how you doing, buddy? I know you've been grinding. I know you're excited to at least get the grind started. That means we're closer to the end. How you feeling, buddy? Yeah, the grind's going to start, whether I'm ready for it or not. So here we are, back to a routine every single week that involves just football. We're already, what, three, four shows deep into the season, ready for week one. Week one's always fun because we're just making it all up, right? Like we don't have data yet, so we're going off a lot of what happened last year. But I think we still have a couple of

really good leans for this week. We'll see. I agree. Also, as always, Connor Allen, who I'm jealous of. This time last year, the three of us were all together in Vegas. Connor now is representing us separately out there in his hotel room in Planet Hollywood. Connor, how are we doing week one? Great. Not drunk. So, you know, that's good.

In Vegas. I've been trying to control myself a little bit after last year and, you know, everything that happened. So a lot of fun, but, you know, excited for a good night tonight. Hopefully make a lot of money, put in a lot of bets. I've been scrambling around, honestly, for as much hype as Vegas gets for being like a betting place, betting on sports in Vegas, like sucks. Like it is like after having nice like apps and everything,

you have to go register in person for all these apps in Vegas, which it sucks. So I'm, I'm fully out on Vegas being a great sports betting place. Illinois, I think it's better, especially once they get circa, then it's over. All right, we're going to be live right here, 7 p.m. Eastern every Thursday night, leading into the Thursday night football game. We're going to discuss our favorite games on the board.

Take your questions. So if you're hanging with us now on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show and jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite week one side or total bet is. Also want to remind you that we have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available to stream live here on YouTube, also available in podcast form

wherever you consume podcasts that will continue to remain. In addition to this game preview show here on Thursday nights, Move the Line Prop Drop is live here as well, 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday. Pat Mayo will be joining Connor and I on the Prop Drop all season. We did a season-long prop show last week check that out in the feed in the show notes as well or on our four for four

youtube channel uh throughout the show we're going to have some references to our betting sub betting sub secures you access to everything on the site essentially everything that you need to be profitable this season every article tool, tool, weekly rankings, projections, DFS, high stakes, redraft, anything, any questions you have there. And of course, the subscriber-only Discord, which I think is the best resource to get all of our bets as soon as we place them. Covering multiple sports all year round.

If you need help to get in the Discord, let us know. Happy to help you there. We've got a ton of new betting tools and resources this season that are specific to the betting sub only. It's hard. So let us help you make it easier. 444.com slash plans. Again, links in the show notes to check that out. So long time listeners will notice we're changing it up a bit this season. Obviously the move from Wednesday to Thursday as well, but instead of touching on all the games, we're going to

go and share three of our favorite looks. This covers most of the slate and allows us to talk about the interesting games only, essentially, and avoiding those inevitable stinkers that come as the season progresses. And as we noted earlier, week one's its own beast. Really, these markets are mature in a way that's really unique to week one only. They've been posted at multiple books for upwards of four months at this point. It's not uncommon for us to see movement in these lines the week of, but at this point, I feel like they're generally fair prices or as fair as we're going to see at any point in the season. So our goal is to handicap a few, catch things that we believe that the market isn't properly accounting for. So Connor, I'll let you get us started. What is your favorite look here

to start week one? Yeah, I think that we've mentioned it multiple times. So listeners of the offseason show here are getting rewarded. But Jags money line here, you're able to find this plus 120 at FanDuel. I think that this is still a great look, even though, you know, Sharp Clark has gotten us down on Jags plus four and a half, Jags plus three and a half, Jags money line. I mean, I took some Jags minus six and a half, minus nine and a half, alternate spreads here.

Just like looking at this team, you know, they have finally a professional coaching staff. I mean, they added Brandon Scherf. They rank 15th in our offensive line rankings. Christian Kirk, obviously, a solid addition as well. Just looking at preseason, though, I was really impressed with how, you know, Trevor Lawrence kind of processes reads, was able to kind of go through everything. And was you know still i think erratic at times but

was just making quicker decisions i think that that's you know pretty pretty uh important and then as well you know defensively they added trayvon walker devin lloyd um and a few other options and so now the commanders i mean gonna be without chase young cam curl and thumb surgery their safety and i think that that could be an issue as well. I don't think he's going to play. I mean, today they were really iffy. They're like, well, if he can't go, you know, we really believe in this guy. So, you know, some vote of confidence they're giving him right now.

So, yeah, I think that the Jags, just the way that these teams match up, I think that they win outright and are, you know, one of the teams this year that takes another step forward. So I'd like them to kind of start that here and don't mind playing some alts as well. Hashtag our Jags. I also took the over on the Jags team total at 20 as well, which again, I feel I'd rather have it on 19.5 on the right side of the key number,

but I thought the way this line was moving, it was probably going the other way. So I'm okay with a 20. I feel like probably worst-case scenario, there's a push involved, but I feel like the Jags are gonna probably have to get to or over that threshold if they're gonna deliver what we're expecting for them in week one against the commanders daigle i think you're probably on this i know again if i present it to you in the in the scope of it's an anti-carson wentz bat i think you're on well we can look to jacksonville and say upgrade in their coaching staff with doug peterson who is historically a great offensive guru to help trevor lawrence develop in year two whereas i can look to washington and say football outsiders number 28 pass defense dva there is nothing that makes me

think that's changed like we may say they naturally may be better because we projected them to be good last year. But other than that, there's nothing. There's no splash signing. There's no splash draft pick. Chase Young is injured. What do I care about this secondary whatsoever? So yeah, I think Jacksonville is just a better team outright. Same scheme, same guys.

I know they had some injuries last year, but they were historically bad as a past defense on third and fourth down they actually their success rate allowed was 10 higher than the 31st ranked team which was the jets on third and first down so they were third and fourth down i'm sorry they were really bad in the situations that matter and i just want to continue to kind of bet against them and you know we're kind of these two teams heading in different directions. So I'm with Connor here. As most of our subscribers, anyone in the Discord who's been with us most of the season is heavily leveraged on the Jags and hoping for sharp Clark. And obviously our bankrolls that this kind of comes through because this has been a strong

position for Clark. If you're a 4-4-4 sub and don't have at least one bet on the Jaguars at some point, I mean, you just, you're going to get banned. You know, you have to have at least one bet somewhere. Team total, win total, this game, I don't care. Just at least one. Also quick side note, gatekeeper says I'm drinking apple cider. I just want to let you know, I discovered my favorite IPA ever hazy IPA in Chicago. And now it's basically all I buy. I will support local small businesses. So Maplewoodwood son of juice go to your store and buy it because if you like hazy ipas because it's incredible it's amazing maple was the elementary

school i went to so i can support uh are we allowed to support ipas uh four for four i don't think tj is changing of the guard okay yeah oh i trust you jd um First play for me is the Bengals. I'm going to back the Bengals. I will lay six and a half. That's available. And it's minus 106 on FanDuel. They are home against the Steelers. Joe Burrow torched the Steelers full-time last year.

81% completion percentage in both matchups. I think there is a massive disadvantage on the Steelers side with the secondary. I think they are going to have trouble matching up with these weapons. Obviously, we've talked about this a lot. We've kind of squeezed all the juice out of the Bengals thing here with Dangle in the preseason. But I know that the pass rush for the Steelers is something that we should be concerned about. But I'm bullish on the offensive line improvements. Again, we are, again, a year away removed from the injury to Joe Burrow as well. I want to continue to buy in this offense.

I'm really worried about the Steelers' offense and what they could do. I think the Bengals' defense is underrated. I think these matchups on the outside are going to be a real problem. So 6.5, I really am considering taking a position because I think you can find 26.5 half on a Bengals team total over. But I really like the six and a half laying here on the Bengals. Again, comfortable at home. They seem to have the number of the Steelers here. And again, I just want to fade the Steelers as well. So give me the Bengals at six and a half. No, I like that. That's a good call. I mean, the Bengals, I just

think are a far, far better team at this point and like i have a lot of worries about that steelers offense but um i mean we'll see especially with it seems like dionte is like really really suspect to make this game i don't know i mean like and then if that's gone like you're surrounding trubisky with like claypool and pickens and a bad offensive line that's uh that's not a good position you want to be in i definitely want to bet against the bingles overall this year given their uh inconsistent schedule i should say since it opens up since it opens up easy and then becomes impossibly hard in the middle of the year uh but this game it's just perfect for zach taylor to be an idiot and get away with it uh i expect this

great this improved offensive line to not lean on Joe Burrell at all in this game, especially with T Higgins still battling that shoulder injury. I think it's a big Joe mixing game and not only that, but the pass rush should have no issues here. Pittsburgh still rolls out at bottom five off defensive line. And we saw in the preseason was Mitchell Trubisky was actually pressured on five more snaps than any other quarterback for the Steelers, despite recording fewer dropbacks than all of them.

We don't expect them to pass as much given that Ross Berger went over 400 attempts and back-to-back seasons, but we do expect them to be more run heavy and perhaps leaning on Najee Harris, which is never a good thing behind an offensive line and a player that has proven not to be explosive just to lead the league in touches and still finishes the RB8 and fancy points per game. So overall,

like it's just a great situation to be on the Bengals' defense and Bengals overall to run away with this game. Yeah, mixing great matchups last year as well. We highlighted that Burrow's success against the Steelers last year in those two matchups. Also mixing fantastic performances there as well. So yeah, give me the Bengals' 6.5 and interested in the team total over 26.5 if you can find that out there in the market as well jd first play for you buddy what did i write down oh let's start with uh titans how about that because even if the giants answer and i have questions about them

answering diving into this more for dfs for the waiver wire i don't know how the giants stop the titans at all like ron Tannehill was blitzed, for instance, on 30% of his dropbacks last year and finished with a 66% completion rate and 10 touchdowns of two picks on those throws. And what we saw in the preseason

was Wink Martindale go from Baltimore to the Giants and do the exact same thing and call a league high 50% of blitzes on the team's defensive snaps. And so if they try to do that, that's great because they don't have a cornerback like Marlon Humphrey,

like Marcus Peters, that they can get away with doing that anyways. Not only that, Ryan Tannehill averaged 8.2 yards per attempt with Derrick Henry on the field last year, as opposed to 6.3 yards per attempt when Derrick Henry was injured. Like, Derrick Henry makes a world of difference, not just for himself, but for Tannehill to open it up against what I think could be the league's worst secondary at year's end. So I think the Titans get their points no matter what happens here. And we've heard enough bad reports out of camp for about Daniel Jones. We know they're coming in with injured receivers.

We know Kenny Galladay is just casting checks nowadays. I don't know how the Giants score points. So overall, I think Tannehill and the Titans run away with this one. I want to fade the Titans this season. I do too. But I'm with you. This is not the spot to do so. I'm really worried, obviously, about everything we've heard from the Giants this season. I thought originally, I think it was the first preview pod we did, and at this point, that's over two months ago. I was excited about the Giants. I thought they could be a fun over team. It's kind of bullish on the Brian Dayball stuff. At that point, we didn't really have any confirmation that Kenny Galladay was complete dust. At that point, we didn't know that Kadarius Toney was going to continue to have off the

field problems and pull every sort of soft tissue ligament that he has in his body that we'd be probably leaning on like David Sills and Wandel Robinson in a big, big way in week one. So like I want to short the Titans whenever possible. I don't think that this is the place to do so. So I'm kind of with you. It's a stay away for me. But I, again, I like this price.

Again, you're under the six and points, but it has a minus one of seven, which is a pretty nice price. Connor, do you have any leans on this one? No, I think a lot, a lot of the same here. I don't really like the Titans that much either, but I mean, I just feel like they are in a position where they could probably stand the ball to derrick henry 30 times and just be totally fine and win this game by six to seven points and if they have any success passing the ball they win by like 10. so that's kind of my take i do have

some serious concerns about the passing offense but i mean i think that they'll have no problem carving this this defense up yeah shouldn't here. Connor, bet number two for you. Yeah, so my second bet is the 49ers minus six and a half against the Chicago Bears here. You find this over at FanDuel. You can find it at BetRivers as well. But I mean, at the end of the day, we've been looking all offseason, all three of us, of trying to find every way possible to short the Bears. I think that we have a great opportunity here in week one. You know, Bears fans, they just want to be happy that, you know, Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace are gone. But this roster got, like, seriously worse.

They lost defensively Khalil Mack, Eddie Goldman, Akeem Hicks. Their offensive line projects to be bottom five unit. Their pass catchers, Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, Vilas Jones, Equinemius St. Brown. You know, it's just – it's disaster zone for Justin Fields, who has essentially nothing to work with. And now is squaring up against a real team. You know, everyone in Chicago is funny.

It was getting real pumped over that, you know, 21.3 touchdown first half against the Browns in preseason. I mean, the Browns were missing like six or seven starters. Like they're only good players. And so, you know, I think that it's, it's fine to think that they could be better in the future. I think that there's a lot of potential. They have a lot of,

they're in a great position for the salary cap going forward. But at this point, looking at their roster, it's just, I mean, it's barren. And the 49ers, I don't really think that they, they don't have to make Trey Lance be the hero that he needs to be here. You know, like they can just run the ball. They can play a control game. Like their defense should be good enough to kind of sit in and stop fields while they just establish the run and really dominate in the trenches.

So, you know, I think that at this point, like Trey Lance, they'll probably try and kind of keep him, you know, a little bit tight here and not let him go in week one against the Bears when they don't have to. But I still think anything less than seven here is like, I mean, you know, a little bit tight here and not let him go in week one against the bears. And they don't have to, but I still think anything less than seven here is, is like, I mean, this is, these teams are just in a world like of difference. Like they're not even close same realm on Chicago's 53 man roster. Nine rookies are on defense and we're expecting at least three of them to start on Sunday. Uh, I I'm, I'm very worried about the bears just not being able to get any pressure, already ranking 23rd in pressure rate last year

and just getting worse via who they lost in the market and didn't sign anyone. It's not really even about what the 49ers can do in offense for me and Trey Lance. It's really just about Chicago adding anything to this game, just showing up on Sunday in a beautiful fall afternoon in Chicago

outside of that. I don't think they'd bring anything to the table for three hours. Fifth round pick Braxton Jones gets baptized in a big, big way in week one against Nick Bosa. It's not great for Chicago. I would love to find some optimism. And I know kind of the narrative that pro bears fans have is that anything offensively around the scheme and what they're going to do and that this new system, isn't going to try to shoehorn Justin Fields into a system designed for an

immobile quarterback. They're going to be more progressive. That's probably true. The reality is Luke gets, he's never called plays in league before. And just because he hasn't done, it doesn't mean that he can't do it, but I would certainly feel a lot better knowing that we have a system or a guy that's has a proven track record, especially with this guy still in a bat with a bad offensive line, limited pass catching

core, uh, league average at best running backs. And obviously we know a horrible offensive line. I'm sorry. it's just bad and has no depth so i was in a i was in a local pub the other night and someone saw me working on my computer and asked what i'm doing and then you know you had to go to the whole spill of what you do and what do you do what do you say i always say i talk about football on tv which used to be true on nbc not true anymore but it's that sounds the most impressive and it's easiest to get away with saying. Either way, I was just

there on my computer and I explained everything and then we started talking about the Bears, the bartender and I, and he said, do you think they'll be better? And I explained the reasons why, which is a whole other spill. And he goes, I think they'll be better. And then he says, is Matt Nagy there? And I said, no. He goes, that's it. That's right.

And honestly, you know what? He does have a point point but at the same time yeah the roster is very bad clearly yeah what do you say when you're asked i go sports media i mean i'm in sports media media is also that's what i yeah i say i work for a sports media company that's what i say i said sports sports media you're also both married so talk about football on tv someone else may perk their ears up and and that helps me. So it sounds better. Yeah, throw alley-oops to my buddy anytime. That's true.

But, I mean, seriously, this game is just so, so ridiculous. I can't wait for the Bears just to get, like, wrecked. And I'm actually going to the game. Rahul roped me in with some tickets. He got a free ticket. So I'm going to the game on Sunday when I come back,, I'm excited to watch them get, you know, just destroyed. Our own Jeff Hicks also has a, uh, a question in the chat about the forecast of the weather. I will say we are on weather watch this week. Uh, the Titans and like Ron Daniel, Derek Henry,

like that could be rained in a thunderstorm. We need to be careful of that because then like, these are the things I'm looking at for DFS really, especially for Derek Henry. Also with this game, I believe there absolutely is rain in the forecast for Sunday. So something else to be aware of, which would certainly help out the 49ers off. That literally helps them out even more. And something that I, one more point that I want to add here is that, you know,

I think that even if Luke gets, he helps change the play calling and, you know, is able to script a bunch of good plays. happens after the first 15 plays like what happens after their script is done like how is this offense going to be able to operate without like knowing what exactly where they're supposed to be and what they're supposed to be doing i just i cannot wait it's going to be a train wreck any bears unders like live bears unders will be money if somehow they rip off a touchdown drive i I think, in the first quarter or two. All right, my second bet is on the Kansas City Chiefs.

I am going to take over on their team total. It is available now at 30.5 at plus 100 at BetMGM. I took it and posted it in the Discord for our subscribers at 28.5 a couple days ago. But, yeah, now we're kind of dealing within key numbers from 28.5 to 30.5, and although that's two points, we just don't land on 29 and 30 even very often, so we're really kind of not in – the movement is the movement. It's been really kind of derived from how the line itself has moved.

This has moved from like Chiefs minus 3.5 to Chief Chiefs minus five and a half, even six in some spots. So the Chiefs team total has kind of moved along with it. Anywhere under 31, 30 and a half, I am absolutely fine with. I think we often hear and give Andy Reid a lot of credit for how he does coming off of a bye. His record is just fantastic historically coming off of a bye. And that to me just talks about his preparation for his team, especially when he has more time.

And we've seen this historically play itself out in week one. I mean, the Chiefs don't really play anyone of note in the preseason, but really doesn't really matter. The Chiefs have topped 33 points in week one for six straight seasons. And they often, because of who they are, play fairly strong teams. They play, you know, there's been good defenses like the Browns. They've gone to New England, even with, you know, Alex Smith and hung crazy numbers in these spots.

So I'm not worried about this offense getting off to a slow start. And I know we've talked about the concern about the ceiling of this offense with Tyreek Hill. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that his loss is not impactful. We do have a six-game sample size in which Hill has missed games during the time with the Chiefs. During those six games, the Chiefs still averaged 2.4 points per drive. That would have finished eighth in the league last year.

This is different. In those scenarios, Hill was literally just out of the lineup. Now they've had an entire off season between free agency and the draft to supplement that loss. Whereas that was simply taking him out of the lineup. So I still think this is a top five offense. I think actually because the defense is a problem, again, relying on young guys in the secondary, kind of unproven guys, and the defense is going to be not very good this year they're going to be in some shootouts and i think that helps them as well so again this is also another opportunity to fade arizona and the defense we talked about that a lot in the preseason too

chandler jones is now in las vegas jj watts questionable for this game their best corner who they just acquired from the raiders in trayvon Mullen. He's questionable with a toe injury. He's the only corner that they have that's going to get any meaningful snaps in this game that ranked above 80th in PFS coverage grade last year. The rest of the guys were anywhere from 80 to 111. That's out of 116 qualifiers. They are starting a dumpster fire secondary against Patrick Mahomes in a controlled environment in the dome in week one, anywhere under 31. I love the Chiefs. It's my favorite play of the week. What are your thoughts, Dagle? Yeah, this cornerback room also allowed a league

high in receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last year, four more than the Bears did in 2021. And then you already mentioned their PFF grades. I believe Marcus Golden, their slot corner, graded out as the worst slot corner in the league at Pro Football Focus last year, which is also why I'm high on Jujus Miss Schuster's reception total and him for DFS in particular.

So they do have the athletic linebackers that can move with Travis Kelsey, but everywhere else, they can't guard the Chiefs whatsoever. So I am actually more down on the Chiefs long-term this year than you and honestly the public are. But that doesn't stop me on this game, them reaching 30 points. They have the highest team total on the board, 29 and a half consensus most places you look. And yeah, it makes sense that they just go over that. Yeah. I think we all took or at least leaned under during our preview pod on the 10 and a half and the win total. Because for me, it's the concerns more

so about the defense than it is anything offensively. Connor, any thoughts here on the Chiefs during this game? No, but I think that their defense and the Cardinals offense will help kind of elevate the game state to help them go back and forth here. And there's nothing, I mean, there's no better games than Patrick Mahomes being in an elevated game state where he just has to throw the ball as much as possible. And I mean, I would love nothing more to see that this Sunday, but that being said, I think that they're, they'll just be able to be dominant enough offensively that they should be able to cruise over this total, you know, pretty handily. So I lean over here as well. If you can find somewhere under 30, that would obviously I think be ideal, but at the same time, I think i think that this is still still a good look any other case i would say the cardinals may push

them i still think the chiefs are going to get there but like this week i don't know who the hell the cardinals throwing to i mean we got zackers perhaps on the sideline now looks like rondale is going to be a multi-week injury uh anton wesley is also banged up it's like they have no choice but to play 34 year old aj green on every snap and i don't know if if they if this game gets out of hand i don't know if james connor is a player like they want to throw out there for every snap i don't know if that's the game script they want to keep him out there knowing they're trying to preserve him for the full season so i don't know what this team's going to do honestly are we chasing the dragon with eno benjamin uh receiving yards props here no no no we don't we don't know what this team is going to do, honestly. Are we chasing the dragon with Eno Benjamin receiving yards props here?

No, no, no, no, no. We don't even get that. It's week one. Calm down. I'm just joking. They're not even going to post Eno Benjamin receiving yard props. Jacob, what's your second bet? My second bet I will mention is the one that unfortunately combats Will Clark, our good friend, Sharp Clark,

because I still believe the Eagles-Lions games goes over 48 and a half. It started at 46 and a half, got juiced up. He bet the under in his week one tractor. I also believe he got under 49, so maybe that makes a difference to him, but I actually still think it goes over. And that's because we know the Eagles leaned on

the league's highest run play rate with 33 carries per game from week six on last year, compared to 22 carries per game leading up to that point. But given how their offseason played out and trading for A.J. Brown, immediately extending him, and how they deployed Jalen Hurts in the preseason for six passes on seven dropbacks, very minute sample, I understand. But we also know they have to see what they have in Jalen Hurts. They know that because they need to know if Jalen Hurts is the answer by the draft

since they had those three picks in the first two rounds. And that's their one question mark. Do we trade these for a quarterback who is better? Or is Jalen Hurts literally the face of our franchise? Now they're just surrounded by the league's best offensive line and the best personnel not only in the nfc east but you could argue at least top two in the entire nfc and so overall like i don't expect them to have that 34 pass play rate with a six point lead that they did last year if this

is garbage time for the eagles and there's outright better than the lions i actually think they throw more because that's what they need to know if j Jalen Hurts can throw more and be better. So I'm much higher on this game script and total than, than I guess a lot of people. I kind of agree on that. This is rare. I don't want to go public very often and say that I agree with Dan Rivera. You can get the Eagles team total at 26 and a half again.

Okay. I like that better. That's good. On the right side of a key number. And you're not having to worry about Joe, you know, or jared golf doing any work there either so it's not a that's not a bad look too um yeah minus 110 on fan duel is the best look for for that's 26 and a half in a bunch of spots so and honestly i did think we were going to get pushed back to the frank ragnall injury that suddenly popped up on thursday scares me now uh i mean jared golf still

only still had a 66% completion rate against some coverage, which we know Jonathan Gannon ran on 62% of their defensive snaps last year. And like, they're not going to change that scheme, but still like there is question marks of if they can push the ball. So yeah, I guess the team total is probably the safer bet,

even though I still like the team. I still like the over. Yeah, I get it. Connor, what are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, I mean, well, so we can just go into my bet here because I didn't realize it's the same game. I forgot here, but I like the Eagles minus three and a half.

I mean, they opened at five and a half in the offseason and the restore the roar and hard knocks movement and sharp batters all over. You know, people, respectable people in the industry love the Lions and I don't think any of us are on it. They're too early. They're one year too early. Right.

And if you look at like, so like a lot of the points for the Lions in the offseason was like, oh, top five offensive line. Now you have Ragnow, Hurt, and the, I don't know how to pronounce his name, but something with an H, Big H. He's out, you know, already the guard. And then, so. Big H. You know how to pronounce his name? They call him Big V. Big V. By tie.

They call him Big V. Yeah, by tie. By tie. Yeah. So he's out. And then part of the other thing was, oh, Jamison Williams is going to come in and crush him. It could be like a dominant asset right away in addition. None of those, like all that's like gone. So like the offensive line could be a little bit suspect in week one.

Their receivers, I mean, obviously, you know, they still have a good core. But like I think Jamison was kind of provide that extra layer. So I'm a little bit worried about that matching up against the Eagles team that, you know, obviously make great offensive additions, make great defensive additions in the off season. And this Lions defense, like we already had a lot of questions about already 30th in EPA per play last year, 30th in explosive pass rate. And what they added Aiden Hutchinson.

I mean, he's not going to change the whole thing. So, you know, I'm, I'm pretty, pretty confident that I like the Eagles here. Minus three and a half. I know that we're getting them right above the three. It feels a little awkward. But, I mean, I think they win by a touchdown or more. I think some old spread as well. And I think that the team total is a great look as well.

You know, that's, I guess, my only concern is, like, if the Lions offense, like, truly just, like, you know, shits the bed, like, you know, maybe the Eagles don't get there. But still, I think that 27, I mean, 30 points even should be no problem for the Eagles. Although the Ragnow injury has me concerned, I will say it is a good makeup, honestly, for the Lions offense.

Like, I know people have cited that, oh, well, like this injury now, Jared Goff can't go deep. Jared Goff has had a single digit rate of throws 20 yards downfield for three consecutive years. He never goes deep anyways. This alters nothing. It's a matter of them finding the right spots. It's such a blow-up game for Moen Rossi-Brown,

and maybe a little bit for T.J. Hawkinson if he ever blows up. So that's why the Ragnell injury, moving the ball at all, at least through the running game, at least since we know they're going to start that way. I remember when Dan tape gang, gang Campbell took over play calling after the buy, they averaged seven fewer past temps per game, 38 to 31. That's a big difference. So that's why, that's why I start worrying now.

No, very fair. That makes sense. But yeah, pro Eagles. I think we all kind of are on the, I guess, anti restore the roar. I just think it's, there's questions of the quarterback. I think Dagle pointed of are on the, I guess, anti-restore the roar. I just think there's questions to the quarterback. I think Dago pointed out in our preview series, you're just your ceiling's cap when Jared Goff is your quarterback. They just have massive questions with the secondary. I know that the offensive and defensive lines can be approved,

and they should have a better pass rush, and a lot of these things are true. But, like, Jeffrey Okuda has done zero, and they need him to be the guy because everything else there is is terrible Mike Hughes had a good year in Kansas City and Detroit gave him the bag he's been healthy for two seasons those two seasons he has been the most targeted cornerback in the league that is not an accident that is because coaches on film see something that they think that they can win with and that's a problem so again i have questions of the secondary and that kind of i think hurts the ceiling of this team a last bet for me here

i am on the ravens um most of the six and a halves are gone uh minus 110 on draft kings at seven six and a halves have been out there fairly regularly um i just i don't think that well i'll back up i think that actually the joe flacco stuff is probably better for the jets case to be honest based off what we've seen with zach wilson it still is not good enough for me there are some massive advantages in this game i think on the raven side ravens are healthy we heard and talked about it a lot they had the highest adjusted games lost in the history of football outsiders tracking that dating back to the mid 80s. Offensive line gets additions with Ronnie Stanley coming back from being hurt last year.

Tyler Linderbaum in the draft. They are going to run it down the Jets throat. They call a ton of gapheavy runs. They actually had, according to PFF, 80.3% of their runs last year were considered gap-blocking plays, which is significantly higher than the league average, 42%. The Jets went 0-8 last season with this new defensive coordinator and defensive system with Robert Sala. 0-8 against teams that finished the year with a gap-blocking percentage above the NFL average. 4-5 against teams that use that concept less frequently. We actually know that the Jets actually can be pretty stout the last couple of

years, even though they've been bad against the run. Not so with the team that runs a system that they're going to see here. We also have questions on the defensive side, even though they've gotten better, they don't have linebackers and safeties that can really hang with Mark Andrews. And we know that there's limited pass catchers in Baltimore, but Mark Andrews is not one of those. He's a stud and he's going to be leaned on here. And I don't think that the Jets have anyone that can slow him down. They're not going to be able to slow down Lamar. And I think that's a massive issue as well. And I think they're going to be able to get a ton of pressure. They play a lot of man to man. And again, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, they added Kyler Fuller.

Like they're going to be able to lock down and man. And I think do a lot of stuff up front to disguise these blitzes. And again, I, there's a reason that Joe Flacco has been a backup for the last three, four years. And I know that he might be an upgrade over Zach Wilson. I think he's going to be in trouble here in this matchup.

I'm willing to leave the seven. I can see this getting out of hand. We've had a great history of Harbaugh coming in in week one and covering and playing really well, like the Ravens here, willing to lay the seven. Diggle? My only comment, I have no opinion on the seven, but it has moved to seven and a half in a lot of spots, and I'm interested in the hook on the Jets, if you can get it there.

Because I don't think – I just want the hook. I'm playing the number at that point since it there uh because i don't think i just want the hook i'm playing the number at that point since it opened at four and a half and i think the line moved too far for zach wilson when he doesn't matter at all so that's my only opinion on this i question the ravens like if they're if they're even top heavy like i still question rashad bateman i like i wonder what the hell this offense even is um and like the Jets, they still have the playmakers. Everything's in place with that organization genuinely on the offensive side of the ball, except a quarterback. So if they move a little bit, week one will be the do it

when you have no film on Joe Flacco under this offense. So that's my only opinion on it. Seven, yeah, I don't lean either direction. Yeah, I'm kind of back to my herd. Obviously, Dwayne Brown comes in and replace him. He looks like he's not going to play in this one either. Connor, what are your thoughts here? I like the Ravens here, and I think the Jets team total under.

You played that as well, Noonan. I think it's a good look. I know that Flacco provides a little bit more life there, but I still am just not really sold on this team in general, and I think that a lot of their projection going forward was reliant on an offensive line that now is not really quite as strong as we had anticipated. And, you know, Garrett Wilson taking an immediate role and a step forward, which also seems to not be the case based on what we're hearing. So, I mean, we'll see.

But, you know, I would lean towards the under on their team total. You find that like 18 and a half, I think 19 in some spots. And I like the Ravens, which were six and a half for a while now seven with the Flacco news, I believe. But you know, I don't really think that that should have even mattered to be honest. I would have, I mean, if Zach Wilson had started, we would have, I would have bet every single Ravens, you know, on everything possible, like in every Jets under possible. Yeah. Corey Davis ranked 91st out of 105 qualifying receivers last year, averaging one yard per route run in man-to-man situations.

And Garrett Wilson, who I think is going to be okay, but has not been glowing reports, I think is going to be, again, another baptism by fire here in week one against some elite corners that missed a lot of time last year. Very, very different. Now, again, we can talk about people love Elijah Moore. That's fantastic. That's not enough to get it done in this matchup. I think they are – Baltimore was second in run-stop win rate last year.

I think Brees Hall, what's his prop, 34 yards, 37 yards? I think he probably goes under it. I don't like Michael Carter in this matchup. They're going to have a hard time running the ball, sustaining drives. I just don't see much of the ceiling in the Jets offense, which I think regardless of what we think about the Ravens offense, I think the Jets offense is going to really struggle, and that makes me feel good about the seven.

The Brees Hall mob is in shambles. The Brees Hall mob is in shambles. You hate to see it, guys. You just truly hate to see it. It's Homer's Brees Hall. I do still like uh elijah more props and and uh dfs option i think he's i think he's a great play this week if only because you know last year even when he was playing he only played over 80 snaps in five games he wasn't a he wasn't a full-time player at all

whereas this year in the preseason he played every single snap with the first first string offense Garrett Wilson only played two snaps I don't know like I don't even know if Garrett Wilson reaches 20 percent of snaps this week so like yeah I do I do actually love Elijah Moore but again that's probably not enough to hang around even though I do like the hook at seven and a half JD take us home what's your last bet I don't know how the Falcons score any points and so I'm just laying the points with the Saints overall. Like when you look at the Falcons, only two of Marcus Mariota's and Desmond Redder's 11 combined preseason carries were design runs.

They weren't intelligently being rolled out or schemed for yards. They were literally running for their lives behind a bottom two offensive line. Kyle Pitts last year against the Saints totaled 70 receiving yards on 12 targets in those two contests. And we know they're going to use him

in the same formation, in the same role, because they never move him around. They only stick him out wide and tell him to try to beat the league's best corners, which he probably can't do against the Saints. And Drake London just went three consecutive weeks without practicing, and no one talked about it at all. He returned to limited bases this week.

But honestly, I don't know what the hell this offense is. I don't know what the hell this team is. And everyone's saying, oh, yeah, Marcus Mariota when he's healthy. I mean, the last time Marcus Mariota was healthy, he got benched under Arthur Smith, who's not going to call an intelligent offense as we saw last year. So I think for me it's an easy bet to just fade the Falcons overall. What do you think, Connor?

Yeah, no, that's a good look here. And I think I would be more confident in the Saints if they were like fully healthy. You know, I think that there, that there was a couple of injuries there that popped up late, but I still think that just like from a roster composition standpoint, like we were all bullish on the Saints preseason and we were just so down on the Falcons. And like, they're just there again, this is another, I think a good example of two teams that are just not even close to each other in terms of, you know, player on player, like matchups and like where these teams are at. So yeah, I definitely lean towards the Saints here. I think that getting less than six is even on the

road, you know, I still think is a good look. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think the Saints are a playoff team. I don't think you're a playoff team if you can't win both home and away against the Falcons in the division. Five and a half, getting under the six, I think, is important too. Again, the worst offensive line in the league, and they brought the entire unit back. And I get the added benefit of having a mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota who can ideally, I think, theoretically extend plays in a way that's different than Matt Ryan.

But, again, I feel questions with the receiving core the defense is a problem really outside of you know the secondary we basically have attacked again it's it should be old at this point because the scheme is different the coaching staff's different but like atlanta against pass catching running backs have been a problem for like a decade um you can see a path to alva camara having a nice day here too so yeah yeah, I mean, Trevor Penning is out. I think maybe one of the injuries that Connor's referring to, not great, but he's coming back and they'll be fine. I'm not worried about the Saints here in week one against the Falcons.

And I think to Connor's point too, and I think there's a kind of a steady stream in our show. And that's definitely how my bets have been in this game is I really want to lean on all the work that we've done this offseason and kind of developing these thoughts and takes and feelings about these teams and a lot of these are spots where I want to leverage a team that I like and bet against the team that I that I don't like I like the Bengals this year I want to bet against the Steelers I like the Chiefs offense I think they're going to be okay I want to bet against the Cardinals I am still fading the Jets and I want to get down on the Ravens.

I think the Saints and the Falcons kind of fit that narrative too. And, again, I don't want to throw out six, seven months of work in one week based off of market movement and numbers. What I feel like we should feel like at any point in week one, we have an advantage over the market at times because we've done some of this work as well. Again, the market is as sharp as it's going to be in any sport, but we're not clowns. We're not just kind of winging this in the last 24 hours or so. We've done a lot of work around these teams.

And I think trying to feel like you got an edge and hammer and push that edge in week one makes a lot of sense. I'm just excited because beyond week one, next week, when we actually get data, that's when work's involved and that's when everyone fades away. That's when we really get an edge because that, again, it entails work. We choose the best. Not many people do the work. So it's the best whenever you can grind because that's when you set yourself apart. And week two, we have one week of data and everyone overreacts to the one data set that we have.

Right. That's fantastic. Right. Because early in the season, it's all just it's i mean it is mostly subjective bagel talked to talked about the you know top of the show here but we just don't have any like true data and we're just going based off offseason moves coaching changes you know like what we've seen in in preseason you know scarce amounts and how much that even matters and kind of just trying to balance all that together into our opinions on teams and then we will some see some things in week one that matter,

but most of the time, I mean, like I think our priors kind of weighing that with what we see in week one is still important heading into week two. Yeah. Don't be afraid to press your edges in week one. So, all right,

let's wrap it up. Let's go watch the football. We will be back tomorrow, move the line. Or if you're listening here on Friday morning, we'll be back in the afternoon again, 2 p.m. Eastern, for the Prop Drop Show with Conor, Pat Mayo, and myself going around handling any of your questions as well.

We like that to be a very interactive show, so feel free, subscribe on YouTube. You'll get the alerts so you can join that chat. Let us know any props that you're considering. We can share our thoughts with you on those as well. Love that and look forward to that as well. And again, wherever you listen to podcasts podcasts we'll be back there as well so for connor and eagle i am ryan we will see you all soon thanks everybody