Move The Line - BOLD Predictions for 2023's Next Emerging NFL Powerhouses & Struggling Contenders!

Episode Date: June 30, 2023

Get ready for a riveting ride through the NFL landscape! Join us as we unveil our bold predictions for the 2023 NFL season, identifying the next wave of emerging powerhouses that are poised to dominate the gridiron. From rising stars such as Anthony Richardson to revamped rosters like the New York Giants, we'll delve into the teams that are set to redefine success in the NFL. But it's not all sunshine and glory—brace yourself as we also uncover the struggles that await some of the league's current contenders. Don't miss out on this captivating episode as we forecast the future of the NFL with our expert insights and predictions!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansDouble Your Next Bet with EDGE Boost 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3N4MVnIFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Player comps are incredibly common. We hear them frequently from the fantasy community and around draft season typically, but what about team comps? On this episode of Move the Line, we're going to take a look at a few outlier situations from the 2022 season and share our thoughts on which of the teams in the 2023 season could take a very similar path. Let's dig in. the long summer towards the NFL season is starting to pick up. You start to see more and more interest from more casual fans once you get into July, and then things really start speeding up in August. So excited this is our last show of June. Yeah, and our last non-2023 preview show. We're going to get into the divisional previews moving forward. So, Connor, how are we doing? Good.

It's a good time because people are actually paying attention to threads that's how i know that you know nfl twitter is back like i tweeted out a thread of some prize fix plays got pretty decent engagement you know my hands were dirty some good engagement farming and yeah i mean i feel like we're back yeah you're ready to go things are starting to get that you know more clicks and likes and you know know, the farming is your specialty. It's a little crazy when I'm like dreaming at night or like thinking about before I go to sleep, like, man, this would be a really good tweet. And like, I have to like write it down before I go to sleep. Cause like today I had a good one, you know, queued up, but I forgot it.

So I didn't, I didn't follow my own process. It was pretty disappointing. You and Maggie are like that meme where like, you know, she thinks he's thinking about something else and he's just trying to think about it, you know, a tweet that's going to get a ton of engagement on the uh on the timeline good stuff as always so uh all right we're gonna again continue to be here every week leading up to the season uh lots of other great content on our four for four bets youtube page uh we've

transitioned the betting stuff off of the old school four for four fantasy page so subscribe support the free content here thumbs up comment to the video all those things go a long way uh jump in the chat let us know something that you like from the show this week a team that you think might have uh similarities to a 2022 team uh still available in podcast form obviously uh subscribe there as well we appreciate all that support keeps these things free and allows us to continue to do lots of cool stuff um clark i talked about it at the top. These are common things with comps, especially on the player side. I despise player comps for the most part. Unless you are a free thinker, that person no longer is with us.

He was a dynamite comp guy. Connor knows who I'm talking about. Seen some great draft comps back in the day from our friend who is no longer on the internet because he's not allowed to. But that's my comp king. Otherwise, I think comps are pretty useless. in the day from our friend who is no longer on the internet because he's not allowed to but uh that's my comp king otherwise i think comps are pretty useless so i think from a team level this is an important exercise to go through because we can learn from our prior mistakes we maybe catch some blind spots uh and then we do that for each other here too so um you know talk to us about the concept here at the start yeah absolutely it's a thing where every season is different. And just because

a team did something last year doesn't mean another team's going to do it this year. Like the easiest example is three years ago, the Bucks had a team built around the quarterback, but no quarterback. They traded for Brady. They won the Superbowl. The following year, the Rams had a team built around the quarterback. They traded for Matthew Stafford. They won the Superbowl. So you could be like, look, it's the same, you know, the same format. But then the following year, the Broncos had a team built around the quarterback. They traded for Russell Wilson and just completely collapsed, right? So things don't always repeat in the NFL, but this exercise I think is helpful to frame potential narratives, not only to find tail end outcomes and futures bets, but also to react to early season results appropriately, because we have precedent for

teams performing wildly above or wildly below expectation. And when we start to notice those patterns and predict the potential for those patterns, I think we can react to it better early in the season when we see it unfold. So that's kind of the purpose of today's exercise. Yeah, good stuff. I think it's a fun exercise. And I think it allows us to, like I said, Nick, the blind spot thing is interesting. Like where am I prone to make the same mistake we did last year? Connor and I talked about it.

I think we both shared the Colts ticket in general from last year where it was just like, hey, this is the division so bad. There weren't a lot of things. There were holes in the Colts handicap, but because like everything else was bad, it was like, it became a pretty easy layup to go there. And it was, you know, had its holes and obviously they became evident fairly quickly. So I want to remind folks,

this is a great time to scoop up a betting subscription as well at four for four access to everything on our sites. Anything you're doing in terms of football speculation, we're going to have covered for you. The season discord is where all of our plays are pushed through. That is worth its price just for the subscription in general. 444.com slash plans is how you can get that. Look, I try to, we do this every week. We talk about it here. We're biased.

This is what we do. I think what we have out there in terms of the content that we provided for, for relative to the price point of other places in the market, this is what we do i think what we have out there in terms of the content that we provided for for relative to the price point of other places in the market the betting subscription is a fantastic deal it really is it's it's it's it's awesome you can get it for five dollars five bucks it's only three months um it's going to take you again that'll take you to the end of september here as we kind of turn the calendar uh partnering with our friends over at vivid picks if you're not familiar with vivid they're a pick'em site similar to of the other ones that are out there, you can go over to the app

store, download VividPix, use the promo code 444BET, and they're going to match your first deposit up to $200, which is awesome. But you can do it for just $5. And again, three-month sub. It doesn't take you through the full year. You can get the full year over on the site at 444.com slash plans. But guys, five bucks, like, I mean, it's an incredible value. I think our full sub in general is an incredible value. So just to get your feet wet, get an access to what we have going on for the first month of the season. And here, as we lead up to the, you know, kickoff, now that we're like 10 weeks away,

great deal. Five bucks. Again, you can head over to the site or dip down here in the show notes, find the links and get access to that. So, you know, VividPix is a fun site. You know, $5 deposit there gets you access to it. So we're going to start it with a team here. Again, I think the Giants are a fun one.

We'll start there. The Giants, a couple things here. We're looking for a team that outperforms what we think maybe the baseline quality of the team is. Maybe a team that also maybe has a new head coach, new philosophy, kind of pairing those two things together. Connor, I'll let you get started with your 2023 Giants comp. Yes. I think there are a couple of different examples here, but when I was going through everything, I think a fun one that's a little bit off the board, the Houston Texans potentially. So you have a lot of different options here because, so when we look at this Giants team, they came in, I thought they had a barren roster,

like no talent. The coach was obviously new with Brian Dable, who we thought was a talent elevator. And now in Houston, we have a roster that the offensive line is still a little bit of weakness, but CJ Stroud is new. They added Will Anderson. They have reasonable weapons with Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, you know, Mechie, if he comes back at all. And the biggest thing for me is that D'Amico Ryan's is not only like a, you know, coach of the people kind of coach, but he's also was a defensive coordinator. So he knows what he's doing. And then offensively, uh, the, you know, the hire of Bobby Sloak Jr. is offensive coordinator who came from like, you know, that, that system specifically like the Shanahan, you know, kind of tree there, I think is important.

It's just one of those things where they can elevate talent. And so I think in a weak division here, there's just a really wide range of outcomes. I probably should have put this in our wide range of outcomes show because I think this team, could they be bad? Absolutely. But if things fall right, I don't know. I mean, it could be a little bit interesting here. I don't know if they'll go as far as to win a playoff game like the Giants did,

but, I mean, mess around in that division, I think it's certainly in play. Yeah, I think making the playoffs and winning a playoff game, I think it definitely makes this interesting. But, you know, I think where I'm at is in a similar spot. Clark, we talked about the Texans a little bit. Like the Bones here are starting to improve. Do we want to really back C.J. Stroud in year one? That becomes kind of the question.

Yeah, the fun thing about this is we did not coordinate our answers. We did this independently. And my team for this was the Houston Texans. I think that they're the kind of team where, like, they're just stinky, right? The Giants last year were stinky because they were coming off that year with Joe Judge as the head coach. Complete collapse down the stretch, no identity. And in comes Brian Dayball, first time head coach, you know, did really well with Josh Allen, not really any proven, you know,

track record as a head coach. And D'Amico Ryans is a really good, like Connor said, really good leader of men, right? I mean, players love playing for him. And you've got this Texans roster that is better on paper than you think when you start getting into it. And I'm not a big, like, this team looks good on paper guy, so I'm going to bet on them. But it does show you they have the bones, like you said, for a team that might outperform expectation. And then you match that up with what could be a potentially easy schedule relatively. And you've got a team that could win eight, nine games.

The problem is they're in the AFC. So it's a little bit tougher than to do what the Giants did last year. But as far as surprising goes, I think Texans are right in the mix. I do think I wouldn't say I'm a big, this team looks good on paper. So I'll bet on them guy, but I definitely care about how they look on paper. And ironically, as we talked about at the the top I have two teams written down here one of them is the Texans I stayed in the division I think you guys are going to massively disagree with me I don't think this team makes the playoffs but the Colts would be the team that I will give

here because we're talking about a running quarterback a unique style of play offensively a team that is going to have to play football a little bit different and that's what the Giants did I think for the most part they have a defense that has some holes not a defense for on paper that we think is really good but they're going to probably have to be creative and because it is a wide open division I think they can over perform if Anthony Richardson's learning curve is shorter than we all think it is because again I'm more bullish I think than the two of you on Anthony Richardson I totally agree agree with you guys. I think year one could be a roller coaster. We could have some absolutely disastrous weeks from Anthony Richardson in year one. But because of the way I think they're going to play, it could be very unique,

leaning on a heavy run game, trying to hide his obvious flaws as he learns and develops. Shane Steichen's obviously done this year with Jalen Hurts. So I think that the Colts could, because the path, if one of these two teams, the Colts or the Texans, are really terrible, knowing that we have the Titans. I know Connor and I are very much down on the Titans for the season as well. There's a path here if something happens, maybe to Trevor Lawrence, where all of a sudden the Colts or the Texans are very much in play.

Whereas, you know, the Tex or the Jags, maybe we'll get there. Maybe someone uses that team here, you know, certainly because the rest of the division is poor. You know, maybe we were expecting another team to really step up. So yeah, we're going to stay in that division. I kind of agree with Clark though, from a playoff making standpoint, the path in the AFC is so difficult. So I really wanted to find an NFC team here, but I thought that the Colts and the Texans made the most sense.

So very, very, very interesting to see. I want to add real quick to that Colts angle that like the offensive line played so poorly last year for the Colts. But what we've seen time and again is that mobility at the quarterback position makes the offensive lines job easier. And Matt Ryan was an absolute statue last year so adding a dynamic quarterback that can take some of the pressure off and some of the predictability out of that offense i think could help jonathan taylor and take some of the pressure off the passing game

by improving their running game next year so i do i do see that angle yeah no that's i think that's a great point yeah yeah i guess my only my only worry about the colt specifically is like the more that it looks like their defense on paper is just rough with especially the secondary. I feel like the Texans just have a couple more, I don't know, bones, a little bit more. Like there's a couple of pieces where I'm like, OK, if he's good, maybe he can make everyone else better. Colts don't really have that. And we're looking at like Julius, what Julius Brents and Kenny Moore and Flowers at corner. I mean, these guys are grading out like terribly.

And like the safety play is bottom tier. Like it's not good. So obviously, again, like you said, though, it's a team that if Anthony Richardson hits his upside in year one, I mean, you can get there mentally. I just am like so out on that happening that it's hard for me to get there. Yes. Derek Stingley, post-hype sleeper candidate. He's getting some great reviews. Yeah. Jalen Petrie, tackle machine, another second year, you know, early second round pick.

Don't disrespect my boy Juju Brents. He's going to get some playing time now, especially with Isaiah Rogers, you know, definitely serving some time. That suspension has been rumored and came out just shortly before we clicked go here. So yeah, I agree with you. The Colts, actually that's part of the plan of why I think the Texans are the right call here. They're going to have some pass rush. They're going to have a little bit of upside in the secondary. The Colts definitely lack that.

But I'm more bullish on maybe what the upside of Anthony Richardson could look like versus what we're going to see from CJ Stroud. Today's show is sponsored by Edge Boost. With Edge Boost, you can double your next bet at any sportsbook for free. It will match your first bet up to $100 and connects directly to your sportsbook. There are no fees, no interest, as long as you pay them back over four weeks. For more information, check out the link in the show notes.

Make sure to gamble responsibly. All right, back to the aforementioned colts here um we're gonna talk about what happened in 2022 with the colts with they like i said assumed to be the favorite in the division because the rest of the division was pretty poor they added a veteran quarterback that was the thought they continued to play you know just musical chairs at the quarterback position we thought that they added uh someone to solidify the position and it became evident very quickly that that was not the case. Connor,

I'll kick it to you. Who is your team here for Colts version of 2023? Yeah, I have two, but I'll just give you one and see if we connect in the last one here. Mine's going to be the lions. I think that this lion's team, while they have more talent and I know that they have added to the

secondary specifically. I mean, Lions team while they have more talent. And I know that they have added to the secondary specifically. I mean, we're looking at guys who are generally veterans like Cam Sutton, Manuel Mosley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. And it's one of those things that the secondary is interesting because it's not something that automatically just because you have good players clicks right away. We've seen in previous years over time sometimes like coverages are very fluid. If you, all it takes is one little misstep in coverage. If you guys aren't on the same page and things can go downhill very fast. So I, I personally have questions about the front seven above the lions. I have questions still about the secondary. I think that that's a little bit overrated. The

offense admittedly is very strong, but I think that, I mean, right now they're plus one 30 to win the division. Like I think that the Packers could come up and reach around and get them. I think that the Vikings could get them. I think that the Bears, if somehow they hit their upside, could get them. Again, that's another team that I'm not super excited about. But if Justin Fields proves us wrong, then they're certainly in play to beat the Lions, at least in one of their two matchups. So I don't know if they have really the catastrophic downside of like the colts did last year but i do think that like them being

favored to win the division pretty heavily at this point i'm not sure is like makes the most sense yeah i like that one um i've got feeling i think i know i'm gonna narrow clark's down to two teams i think it might be one that i have uh but i'll kick it to you, Clark. What do you got for this one? I like that Lions outline. My issue is I've been drinking a ton of blue Kool-Aid recently. I've been watching film on Ben Johnson's play calling. I think he's the next Kyle Shanahan legitimately. What he's doing is incredible.

So I can't fade them in any way right now. But mine's going to be super unpopular, I think. And the idea here is last year the colts were were a massive hype train right i bet their division went to i bet them to win the division at plus 145 early in the offseason and it closed like minus 120 like they had a massive shift in odds and they were not even close that bet was a loser by you know halfway through the season so what i'm looking for is a team that is getting hype that may not live up to the hype and may fall well short of the hype.

And for me, that's the Seattle Seahawks. This is a team that, you know, people look at the division. They say the Cardinals suck. The Rams suck. The 49ers don't have a quarterback. They've lost a ton of defensive pieces. Like this is wide open for the taking. And if you look at the Seahawks, their offensive metrics were solid last year.

Gino Smith played really well. They had a really good draft. They've got a ton of young talent that's getting better. Assuming this player takes the next step, they're going to be great. But the thing is, Gino Smith did most of his damage in the first half of the year. And in the second half of the year, he played a lot more tougher defenses. And also, there was all that film, right? They hadn't seen him play for, I don't know what, six years, seven years. So he came out of nowhere, absolutely dominated for several weeks against bad defenses, but never really got his mojo back. And so what we could see here is if the two rookie tackles don't take a step forward in year two, if those defensive players don't take a step forward in year two, we could see basically an average team in what

appears to be an easy division, but outside of that is a tough schedule. And then that puts a lot of pressure on Gino. And I think that he's yet to prove that he can really take that next step. I like Gino. I'm not anti-Seahawks, but if we're looking for a team that has an unforeseen cliff to drop off, I think the Seahawks have one that not a lot of people are talking about. Interesting. Yeah. I like, I love the Seahawks roster. I think my concerns are Geno based. Cause I think, you know, it's very evident that there was a tier drop in the second half in terms of his performance, but they've done so much to like support him. Whereas,

yeah, I mean, he could stumble. I think they could still be a pretty interesting team in the NFC. I think is, you know, fairly wide open. So yeah,

I disagree with the Seahawks, but I like it. I like it. Connor, any thoughts on Seattle before I share mine? No, I mean, the addition of Jason just seems like it helps elevate his floor a lot.

And then Devin Witherspoon, I think, you know, Noonan has loved Devin Witherspoon since, you know, he proved to have that dog in him, you know, when he started watching some film. But I mean, he's, he's small. He is, I mean, a little bit, he's, he's not, I guess, as fast as he needs to be given his size.

Like, I mean, there's plenty of holes that Scott Smith poked early on in the process when we were actually trying to evaluate them as prospects that maybe doesn't pan out. Now, again, I think the median outcome is I disagree with what I just said there in terms of like, it would probably be good. But I mean, it's not like he's a lock to be an awesome like shutdown quarterback one. So I do like Seattle, but I can see that if Geno doesn't pan out

that maybe they're not quite as good as they think. Got Drew Locke ready to go maybe so much swag you know no i'm kidding and i will be clear i i bet the seahawks to win the nfc like early in the offseason like i'm i'm i'm bullish on the seahawks upside just like everyone else but i think we get in a danger when we start thinking of their upside as their baseline and i think that's starting to happen a little bit with the perception of the Seahawks. For sure. Yeah, no, I think that's a good point.

For me, I went with, and again, similar to what Connor said, I don't think that this team has like a complete bottoming out, but I do think because they're being, I think, driven a little bit based off of perception of the division, they have made a change at the quarterback position. Maybe that's, you know, stabilizes things. But I think the Saints are a little bit dangerous

in terms of just thinking, hey, we want to make plays against that rest of the division. I know Clark is very bullish on the Falcons and has laid out some fantastic cases on why they're going to be

much improved. But we just don't have a lot of other faith in the other clubs in that division. So again, I think that Carr is a good quarterback. I think he's an improvement. But again, like there's a lot of questions with that roster. The defense is, I think has been just kind of bleeding talent.

And they've every year get to the spot in the off season where they have to finagle the roster to manage the cap situation that they continue to put themselves in. And that could get really murky really quickly if they have maybe any sort of cluster injury situation whereas i think a lot of what i'm hearing in terms of the saints handicaps early in the soft season has been competition based more so than being really bullish on the roster and all of those things so and then you know dennis allen again it's going to be one of those guys i think historically a lot of these guys down the line, you know, Juan Stats, it comes to mind. Like guys are just really good coordinators and fit really good in that role.

And they just don't have a great track record when they're actually the main guy in charge. So the Saints would be a team for me that if all of a sudden they are, you know, behind Carolina in that division, I guess I wouldn't be shocked. I think that there is more of a floor to the Saints outcome than, again, if the Falcons are also who we think they are too, is kind of part of that handicap. So thoughts there, Clark? Yeah. I mean, I think anytime your number one angle is, well, they have an easy schedule. There's potential for that to change because our projections of schedule strength don't always pan out correctly, right? Players get injured, teams outperform, et cetera. So there's the chance that the Saints schedule doesn't end up that easy.

And in which case their aging defense that's lost a couple of players could struggle relative to last year. Maybe Derek Carr doesn't fit in all that well in the new offense. I like the Saints. I think they're set up to be favorites to be favorites to win the division but this is an this podcast is about identifying teams everyone's bullish on that may not live up to expectations so you know would I be shocked no no not at all yeah I mean I know I think it's a great point here the Saints roster just to me is like very meh and so I think it but it does require multiple other teams in the division to step up and right now I feel pretty good that the Falcons could be that I don't feel as good about the other two teams. Like the bucks, I feel very strongly.

They will not. And the Panthers, the more that I analyze them, the more I think that they're just going to be an extremely boring team and just like be very fine. Maybe win a couple of games. They shouldn't, but we'll probably lose a bunch of games. Like I, this is a team that I don't really love, but a team that I, I mean, I thought this was the layup. That's why I didn't put it was the jags i thought the jags were like the easiest one i thought that's when i said clark has two i thought one of them yeah because i mean their

their defense i i still don't think it's all that good um but like i mean it's basically just like trevor lawrence guiding them and the division being terrible uh i mean like i don't know to me that's a team where it was like, if Trevor Lawrence doesn't take the step forward that we saw and have seen flashes of like, I mean, maybe they win nine games. I don't know.

Like, I mean, there's again, there's probably not that massive downside with them because Trevor Lawrence is a legitimate difference maker, but could another team usurp them? You know, like I think so.

It's definitely possible. Yeah. For me, Lawrence is in the tier of players that will never lead a bad team like yeah unless he gets hurt obviously that you know things happen but if he's playing quarterback for the jaguars to me like they're always going to be a competitive team whereas we saw matt ryan fall off a cliff last year and you know if if a player like gino has a bad year like would we be surprised jared goff if the lions offensive line gets banged up, what do we be surprised? Like these, these quarterbacks aren't

the type of players that can carry a team. I think Trevor Lawrence is pretty much there. Yeah. Very fair. Yeah. I think that's actually part of my main part of my anti-Lion sentiment too, is that I don't think Jared Goff is very good. He's a, some of his parts quarterback. So great when he has great pieces, not very good as an actual quarterback otherwise so yeah propped up by Sean McVay and again to Clark's point propped up by Ben Johnson right now and that sometimes can hide some pretty massive warts um and again if you have supporting cast around him to help him do so which he does you know that makes things a little bit easier so yeah I mean I think with a caveat too off the top is that, you know, we'll get to the Rams, you know, their version at the end.

But like all of these, if you put a quarterback injury behind it, like, you know, we're trying to do this exercise without that because that's the answer to, you know, basically any of these teams will fall short of expectations, you know, if their quarterback goes down for the most part. So, all right, next, I'll take this one first. We're going to talk about a version of the 2022 Eagles. Just want to go in case someone else has mine.

In this situation, we have, I guess, a young quarterback that took the next step. We do have a late schedule that they hopefully can take advantage. Fairly strong roster or improved roster behind the young quarterback. And again, I think this is going to be Clark's answer as well. But I think the Falcons are this team. Again, we have the quarterback that can take a step up. Again, I don't think that the Falcons' bones are as strong as the Eagles were last year, but I think we all agree that they've made some drastic improvements.

And if you see Desmond Ritter take a step forward, they have a lot of weapons offensively. It's a strong offensive line. They're going to be able to run the ball successfully with B. John Robinson. That was a big part of, obviously know the dna of the eagles last year now i don't think the defense even is reaching uh top five top ten percent outcome looks like the eagles defense but it's much improved and again i think they could take advantage of a light schedule there so um falcons are my pick here clark where do you got yeah falcons as well i mean i don't

have anything new to add from previous shows. So if you've not tuned in throughout the summer, I've been talking about what the Falcons are capable of this season all year, and Ryan nailed it. Connor, you got a different team? I do. So I had to think a little bit outside the box here, and this is not as much of the team taking the next step forward,

but more about the quarterback. So obviously we talked about Washington last week. I think they're viable with Sam Howell. But the one I wanted to talk about today is Brock Purdy in the 49ers. It's looking more and more like he's going to be ready for week one. I mean, if he's ready for week one, this 49ers team is going to smash everything on their market in terms of win total, in terms of everything. The whole reason that I actually have taken a really uncertain approach to this 49ers team is like, Hey, I don't know the win total. Like we don't know who's gonna be playing quarterback. Do I really want to bet an over on a Sam Darnold

led team? Or, uh, I mean, God forbid Trey Lance led team. Definitely not. Um, but I mean, Brock Purdy was awesome last year. Brock Purdy was better than Jimmy Garoppolo and every, basically every single metric. Uh, and Jimmy Garoppolo, I would say is like a league average quarterback. So it's not like Brock Purdy is like going to be some elite quarterback, but Shanahan continuously, it doesn't matter who's back there. It's like propped up basically every quarterback, but you find like Brock Purdy was doing things that Jimmy G wasn't like he was being a little bit more aggressive. He was pushing the ball downfield a little bit more. And I think that those small differences, right. Even as a rookie, like that's why they drafted

Trey Lance. It's like to have a little bit more of an edge to be able to do things that, that Jimmy Garoppolo just refused to do. And the reason that they ultimately, I mean, I, what I thought lost the Superbowl, uh, is that they weren't able to make those big plays. They weren't able to get that extra squeeze out of their quarterback, uh, to actually carry their team if the game plan didn't work out. So for me, like, I think if Brock Purdy is healthy, like this team is going to take even another step forward and like dominate the NFC, especially given their division. But again,

that's something that I'm, I'm very like monitoring very closely because I think will matter significantly to this handicap, at least for me. Sounds like some alt win totals on the, on the nine years. First pro Brock Purdy content of the off season. It is here for Clark.

Any thoughts on Connor's take on Brock Purdy and the Niners? What I liked about Brock Purdy's film last year was how, from the first snap, they let him play quarterback, right? Like, when you have a team that is positioned to make a deep playoff run and you lose your starting quarterback, longtime veteran, so many teams will shell up and be like, okay, we don't want to put this quarterback at risk. We don't want to, and they end up losing because they just lose the entire dynamism of their offense. Brock Purdy came in and just played aggressively from the first snap

and Kyle Shanahan was like confident in him, built game plans around what he's capable of doing. And, and if he didn't get hurt against the Eagles, they have a chance to win that game and go to the Superbowl. So I think this is a good offense if Purdy's back. The problem is they lost a ton of defensive players, like so many impact players and their defensive coordinator. So the defense that really kind of dominated the league last year, I think we'll see some reversion towards the mean, which might offset some of that optimism.

But we'll see. Maybe they can still put it together. Yeah. Steve Hawks comes in and again, everyone keeps getting plucked away for head coaching jobs is that DC. So let's see if he can continue to keep that trend rolling. But yeah, I like that. Like that point there, Connor. All right, next we will go with the Broncos. Broncos were again, just a quarterback away from being a real contender. They signed,

or, you know, make a trade and big splash and bring in Russell Wilson. Everyone now thinks they're taking the next step because that's all they really needed. Conrad, I'll kick it to you. Who is the Broncos of 2023? And I'm still so sad that Russell Wilson just sucks. I mean, that's just terrible. I mean, that whole last season was just so depressing to watch. I actually watched that Colts-Broncos game in a bar, and it was like the saddest bar experience of my life.

Went the way where they tied and didn't score a touchdown and went to overtime. It was miserable. But anyways, for this one, the team that I think could be the Broncos this year, I'll go with the Jets. I think that's the obvious answer to me. I mean, Rodgers turning 40 in December, literally spending days in a dark cave alone, uh, this off season contemplating life retirement, uh, you know, everything I know that he's just, you know, over two years off of an MVP at this point, but I mean, it hits fast. We've seen it. I mean, we see it all the time happen with drew breeze happened with Peyton Manning happened with Matt Ryan, like these quarterbacks who are, you know, known for their

arm talent are known for just like their decision-making. Like it happens quick. And if you aren't ready for it, like you just don't know when it's going to happen. So I would rather be a year early than a year late right now. I think that their defense can probably carry them to a decent season, but like, you know, I think that there's still plenty of downside here for this team that if the offense doesn't click, maybe the defense isn't as good, you know, you're in trouble. So I think that's, to me is the obvious answer for this one, but I think that there are a couple other good ones as well. I have the jets as well. I thought it was a clear one. I didn't see as obvious of another team. Uh, Clark, what do you have here? Yeah, I'm just too, it's so obvious. Like, you know,

can Aaron Rogers come in and leave them to playoffs? Absolutely. Right. I mean, just, just like Russell could have with the, with the Broncos last year, but the, you know, can Aaron Rodgers come in and lead them to playoffs? Absolutely. Right. I mean, just like Russell Wilson could have with the Broncos last year. But the, you know, the whole like save your quarterback thing, like we talked about how sometimes it pans out, sometimes it doesn't pan out. And Aaron Rodgers, like Russell Wilson, is a unique personality as well as being a good quarterback. He has that sort of, does he fit culturally? And that matters, right?

Like whether or not the team buys into him and backs him with sort of the passion and intensity that's required to succeed at the highest level in the NFL is an open question. And they have a brutal schedule. So if things don't work out, things start to go downhill. Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to take hits and starts forcing things like he did last year

and not really like letting the plays develop fully. There's a path for a sunset for Rodgers' career this year. It's definitely within the range of outcomes. Yeah, a path too. So again, we're not saying that the Jets are definitely missing the playoffs and they're going to be terrible and all those things. But I think as we've laid out here, you know, the division. Similar, this is, again, another parallel to the Broncos last year was the Chiefs, the Chargers, two teams that we think are really good. You know, Raiders are a little bit feisty. Like, the Jets are in a very difficult division.

Their non-division schedule is very difficult. It's just going to be a challenge there too. Yeah, and again, like similar to the Broncos, the defense can help maybe keep it afloat a little bit, but in terms of like taking that next step and being a legit Super Bowl contender, I think we all have some questions and I think it's fair to question that too.

So you had a couple others who you wanted to mention too. Yeah, one last bit on the Jets here. The offensive line, I think is still a question here. Specifically, Garrett Wilson is awesome, obviously. I think he's like an ascending wide receiver, but outside of Yeah, Garrett Wilson is awesome, obviously. I think he's an ascending wide receiver. But outside of that, Alan Lazard's just a middling possession receiver. He doesn't really add much. They added Mecole Hardman as well.

It's just a lot of dusty guys outside of Garrett Wilson. I think we have on the future, talking about fragile teams. I mean, if Garrett Wilson goes down there, the offensive line doesn't hold up. I mean, this offense could be disastrous if Rodgers is in A game. So I think that there, there definitely is some downside there in terms of how thin they are. But yeah, the other team that I thought was interesting, one that I know Clark will get behind here. I mean, I'm in on the Browns, but I think that the downside here is, is pretty low, uh, in terms of a team where Deshaun Watson played six games was if you take away the two win games was pretty average. Um, but it was a far cry from like the statistical,

uh, the stats that we saw from 2020, where he like led the league in yards per attempt. I mean, if he doesn't return to form, like I think that there's plenty of scenarios here where this team in a division that I think is pretty tough with the Bengals Ravens and a Steelers team that I'm, I'm struggling to kind of get a good hold on,

but like I could easily finish last. I think if Sean Watson is like the same or maybe even worse than what we saw last year, which I think is in the range of outcomes. But again, I think if you go back to last year, I think the wide range of outcomes is massive. So like Sean Watson returns to form, this Brown team could be awesome. You know, he doesn't or he plays like he did last year and things don't click defensively. I mean, they could easily be third or fourth in the division.

So that was just another team that came to mind. Yeah, good division. Same concept. just another team that came to mind. Yeah. Good division. Same, same concept. Don't hate that one at all. I'm very bullish on the Browns. I think they're going to be really good, but yeah, I mean, the repeat of Deshaun becomes very, very problematic very quickly.

So, all right. Last year, this one's interesting. So we have the Rams again, coming off of a Super Bowl win. In this instance, you know, a playoff team or a contending team. But again, house of cards in terms of injuries. Quarterback led it, but they also had cluster injuries on both sides of the ball. And I think there are numerous contenders here. And I'll kick it to you, Clark.

Let's get started with your version of the Rams. You guys won't like this one. My team, so yeah, the Rams, they did you guys want to like this one? Um, my, my team. So yeah, the Rams, they, they, they did lose that quarterback and they lost Cooper cup and, you know, they lost a bunch of guys, but they were bad before that, right? Like people, people seem to forget. They got absolutely boat raced by the bills in week one. And they had, they had a good game here and there against like bad teams but really they were not good last year even before the injury so my my rams are the dolphins um i i think they are a very fragile team and and their upside is great i think if you're going to play the dolphins in a bullish way it should be at high odds you know high outcome type things because if tua tyreek and jaylen waddle all stay

healthy and vic fangio really makes that defense better, there's great upside, but Tua obviously is an injury risk, he's never made it through a year, he's had multiple concussions, multiple other injuries, like, he's a pretty fragile dude, and he doesn't avoid hits very well, like, when he's scrambling, he just, like, every time it just, he gets hit, I'm like, oof, you know, so injury risk is high, that and Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell gets hit. I'm like, oof, you know? So, so injury risk is high. That and Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell are the entire offense. Like they have basically like two plays they run and both of them require Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell to be splitting the defense and creating holes. If one of those guys goes down and Tua is back to having one elite right receiver, like

he did with Jalen Waddell the year before Ty Terry Kill came, the offense really, really tightens up. And without that space, Tua just does not have the ability to generate offense. So I think that there's three potential points of massive injury impact on the offense. If one or two of those go down, I think there's a massive, and again, we've talked about how difficult the schedules are in the AFC East. There's a massive downhill slide that can happen if they can't generate offense. Mike White is okay. I like him as a player, but he's just not going to be able to do what Tua can do in terms of that processing speed.

So that's the offense. Then on defense, it's a lot of projection. It's a lot of like, well, you know, like they kind of have flashes of good last year. They also have flashes of bad last year. Vic Fangio is a great coach, but like, you know, it's still, it's still a new coach and,

and putting his system onto an existing group of guys, I think is not always like a transition that goes smoothly. So there's, there's downside on both sides of the ball combined with the schedule. I think, I think the dolphins could be a paper tiger. You're right. I hate it.

I hate it a lot, but I think your points are valid. I will say, especially offensively it's it's you know it does their success is predicated on a very small handful of guys and if one of them goes down uh the just the calculus is very very different when uh you know trent surefield has to step in and do different things they actually lost surefield and gaseki uh yeah they're even thinner than they were last year. Yeah. I mean, Gusecki was irrelevant by the end of the year.

He was running like whatever, like 20 routes a game. But I completely understand in terms of, I almost think Tyreek or Waddle, one of those would be more of an impact than even losing Tua, which sounds crazy. But it's just like, I'm a little more confident. We've seen Mike White, you know, dump the ball down, you know, his way to, you know, at least somewhat competent offense. We saw the dolphins actually put together a reasonable offensive game plan against the

bills with their backups in. Uh, so I don't know, consider me a believer in Mike McDaniel and maybe Mike White, but, um, I do think though that there is significant downside if, if Tyreek or Waddle goes down, um, because that, you know, it obviously matters. Or Tyreek's legal situation, which I don't even, I think he's fine. But, I mean, that's another risk. He could get himself into more legal trouble between now and then. So, yeah, I think he's clear for that one. He also talked about retiring after this year.

Like, his mind, you know, like, Tyreek's another enigma, right? You never really know what to expect. Connor, what do you got for this one? his mind, you know, like Tyreek's another enigma, right? You don't never really know what to expect. Uh, Connor, what do you got for this one? Yeah. So mine, I think pretty obvious here is the Titans.

They also just lost, uh, Nicholas, Nicholas petite for error or whatever. Offensive lineman, um, already for six games for gambling. It seemed like he was gambling in the hotels,

which by the way, these rules are so dumb, but, uh, I mean like just completely ridiculous. People are like setting like, Oh, well it says in the book, like it doesn't say like people were not understanding. They couldn't bet in their hotel rooms of their way games. Like that's just so ridiculous, but that's, that's where he gets popped from. But I mean, we don't, I don't really

care about that to be honest at this point, I'm just ready to fade the Titans. And this is just another nail in the coffin because now they're going to be starting probably a former sixth round pick. It looks like that's what our offensive line guy, Justin Edwards, says that kick him from like left tackle to right tackle. His name escapes me. Some of the D last name, but said he'll probably start there. I mean, other than that, their offensive line is weak. Their secondary is super thin. Their wide receiving cord.

I mean, if you want to consider trail on Burke's good, that's fine. But the rest of it is like Kyle Phillips and Nick Westbrook, Akina, Ryan Tannen, we talk about like offensive pieces that can be an issue. Ryan Tannen goes down, you're starting Will Levis and a terrible offensive line. Derek Henry goes down. What are you gonna do? Pass every play? Or like, I mean, you can't do that. Like they just don't have the personnel. So like the only way that they end up being good is if their defense turns out to be awesome and they can run the ball 30 times behind an offensive line, then it's surprisingly really good. Justin Edwards came out, had him at 31st. I think that that's probably too low, but I mean,

they're definitely a bottom tier offensive line and now they just lost their starting right tackle who was to be fair, not very good to begin with, but the guy they're going to is just a complete unknown. So for me, I think this team team the downside of this team is just immense with any injuries like any of their core pieces here yeah um jaylen duncan will be kicking out there will be your new tackle but yeah i mean like last week when i talked about the titans we had um mike clay and pff both had them 32nd in terms of their offensive line ranking. So Justin at 31 is not off market in terms of where, you know,

people that do this quite often have the Titans offensive line. He's bullish on their line. Yeah, he is. He thinks they're going to outperform expectations. The one that is interesting, there's a couple. I have a couple on my list. I'm going to, I'm going to go with one. I don't think you guys are going to like, um, it is also predicated for the most part

on if the quarterback was to go down a very different thing. But I, again, I think the roster has more questions and that's the Ravens. Now I think the Ravens could be very exciting and very interesting. Um, I know that, uh, Huntley made the all made the all you made the body made the pro bowl last year right the joke that we have like so if you're to step in they have a pro bowl quarterback sir pro bowl back of quarterback um i have questions about the defense and again i don't want to overrate defensive talent on paper um but the secondary is a problem um and it's been a problem periodically over the last decade or so and we we've seen these ebb and flow with the Ravens where the defense is terrific,

and then they have this abysmal season in terms of the secondary, and you could throw all over them. I think Lamar is going to be awesome. I think the offense could be really incredible. I think a top three offense in the league if everything even clicks here, and Lamar is able to play 17 games. But even if he is, I think they're going to really need to avoid defensive injuries, in the back half especially, and Lamar is going to have to be that kind of guy to carry them

because I think there are some questions here defensively. I don't think that they have a terrific pass rush. I think it's the bottom half of the league, and I just have questions and concerns defensively. Now, offensively, like I said, they could be awesome, but if they have any sort of injury to Lamar or they have any sort of cluster injuries on the defensive side, like we saw with the Rams last year, I think that they are in the mix to be in the last or towards the tail end of that division, which I think is really good. Now, again, they also would not surprise me if all of a sudden they're 13 and four. Lamar is a legit offensive player of the year, MVP candidates, but I think the margins here are fairly thin in terms of what we could see

from the Ravens. What do you think Clark? Yeah, I don't even think it necessarily requires Lamar injury. Like I I'm kind of like, I was rewatching Vikings, Vikings Ravens from 2021 this morning. And like Lamar was so bad,

so unbelievably bad. Like even when he was fully healthy against kind of a mediocre defense um so like he has that downside like he his athleticism gives him kind of a nice floor and like really really good highlight plays but I'm not convinced that throwing a bunch of good receivers on a team and and good you know like obj is he still good like I don't know um I I don't know that throwing a bunch of receivers on a team, a rookie receiver and Bateman, who's also unproven, is going to make Lamar Jackson an accurate thrower of the football. Like, he's a little bit erratic.

So to the extent that that means less running and less dynamic offense from him getting outside the pocket, like, may not even be a good thing. And then you've got the schedule and division, all that kind of stuff too. So, um, I mean, I, I I'm optimistic for the Ravens. I think Lamar Jackson is a good player. Um, but I'm not sold on the Ravens. It's not a, it's not a sure thing by any stretch. Yeah. Connor, what calls my Ravens take the, the dolphins and Ravens being brought up here. It just makes my heart sad. Like it just makes me, it makes me really disappointed. But I think think that i think to your point though too the todd munkin uh thing is kind of a little bit

more of a question mark than most people are making it because what he's done in the nfl so far has been i don't know about the opposite but pretty much the opposite of what lamar has done so far and i think that there is some projection there and now i am bullish i do think that it makes sense but i mean zay flowers shot batemanell Beckham, again, far from a sure thing. Todd Monk and far from a sure thing. That being said, I think that a healthy Lamar is good enough to carry any defensive woes, any, you know, even if the receivers, I mean, he was thrown into literally bums for like most of his career. I mean, like Des Bryant was signed there for a little bit, like, like by the end of his career, like these are guys who his career. These are guys who can't separate at all.

Devin Duvernay, these are like nobodies. So even league average talent I think is a big upgrade for him. So I think that it would take defensive and an injury to Lamar, I think personally, for him not to be able to carry the team to at least be competent. So I think I'm a little bit more sold on the Ravens than you guys are. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, look i mean look rocky sin had trouble getting on the field uh with the raiders uh it is needed going to be needed to be a prominent member of the ravens secondary this

this year uh even before injuries happen so again i think there is a path to this being pretty problematic the other one that i think is really obvious too and again this is more predicated on a quarterback injury. What do the Bears look like if they don't have Justin Fields? I don't think that any of us think they're going to be very good with Justin Fields. Yeah, what do the Bears look like with Justin Fields? Right, right.

So that's a fair question. We take Justin Fields out of the equation. And again, people are, I don't know, I say bullish, but like, I don't know. They got DJ Moore and they've added some talent. They spent a bunch of money on off-ball linebacker and like, it's still a secondary that's pretty bad. Maybe they add some sort of pass rush here

with some free agents that are still pending. It's a bottom five pass rush as it currently stands. Justin Fields is off of that team because, again, he should be more susceptible to injury theoretically because he is between holding the ball too long in pocket and a breaking pocket between holding the ball too long in pocket and a breaking pocket uh in you know rushing the ball he's gonna be more he's gonna hit get hit more than the average quarterback um again this is not rocket science but this team collapses uh in dramatic

fashion without justin field so again like picking first in the draft again type of fashion without justin field especially that's early in the season so again that's a layup because just that you know an injury to a quarterback but uh the rest of that roster, we don't have the bones that we're talking about with the Ravens if they're to fall apart or some of these other scenarios. It is Fields reaching a top 10% outcome. That's the best case scenario for any pro-Bears stuff that I've heard this off season. So the Bears one gets ugly pretty quick if he goes down. Did you see the videos of Darnell Wright, just getting absolutely whipped in practice to like, uh, by some like random undrafted free agents and like, uh, like some free, like, and the great

thing was that the bears fan spin on it was like, Oh, look at it. Look at this random undrafted free agent that we got, like putting in work. And I'm like, dude, your first round pick just got shredded on the edge. Like what's going on here. So, I mean, I was happy to cash the bets on him in the draft, but I think that from a prospect perspective, there were a lot of holes. And he, we're going to talk about a character. He's certainly one of them, sliding into reporters' DMs, telling them not to talk shit about him and stuff like that.

He's a pretty wild guy. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead, Clark. The Bears upgraded a backup quarterback to pj walker so uh i don't know what plan b is you know at least it's you know someone that i think you can try to replicate what you're currently doing just a significantly worse version of that so i like when teams at least have that mindset and like all right we don't have to deviate off of what

we do schematically we have to put the backup in there but yeah it's it's but i'll miss i'll miss the auto fade of nathan peterman that we get yeah did he throw throw two picks and then get pulled it was something like that like uh it was something like ridiculous last year i don't i don't even he had one of the lowest passing yard lines when he was in there it was like 140 or something like that it was like the most outrageous thing i've ever seen yeah i think it was against the jets. Maybe he's, he's, he's nothing. Yeah.

Not good. Sorry, bears fans. You know, I hope we get to watch 17 games, Justin Fields. It can be fun from a fantasy perspective and all those things. But in terms of him pushing your team into the playoffs this year,

I don't think we're necessarily there and I'm afraid to see what happens if something happened to him and he got dinged up. So all right, gentlemen, good stuff as always. Again, reminder, jump in the show notes, check out how to get access to the betting subscription for just $5. You need to take advantage of that.

It is super duper cheap. You get access to everything that we do on the site, all of our picks and all that stuff as well. So appreciate you guys hanging out with us. We'll be back next week to start our divisional preview series, which takes us up to almost the start of the season we are getting there we are almost there so i appreciate it as always so for connor and clark um right and we'll see y'all next time thanks everyone you