Move The Line - Commanders vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 6 MNF

Episode Date: October 19, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen take a final look at NFL Week 6 with a full breakdown of the Commanders-49ers Monday Night Football player prop market. They discuss their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props, highlighting the projections, matchup edges, and prices that stand out before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move of the line. Monday night football action, Ryan Newton, Connor Allen, back with you as always. Connor missed you on Friday's show. Prop drop, missed you. It was not the same. We did get pretty close to, I guess, hitting the parlay a little bit. I didn't message me about it actually and say, they're like, the parlay came close and I was like, no way. This is crazy.

Who failed? Was it Bowers or was it someone else? Yeah, Kaleef Raymond got his third reception callback. It's like right before we're half time. And then didn't get another one. So we needed Raymond at four. And we needed Bowers who took like the first half off. But slops, both slops legs got there for us.

He had Matthew Golden. We were trying to figure out what we were doing because I like the Tucker Craft. I proposed like a Jordan Love because we both like we liked all of the Packers pass catchers. And then like let's just go Golden. I like Golden too. It's inflated. But like his ceiling out come. are pretty massive.

So we went with Golden. He had Isaiah likely as well. Nice. He loves likely. Likely just keeps cashing in for him. Yeah. Hard not to like a guy. It's getting like a dozen targets a game on a fairly concentrated offense. So yeah, we only had five legs, which, you know, helps.

But it was at least it was a little interesting. So we can do. So looking forward to having you back on the show, though. Yeah, I'm recovering. Weekend was fun. It was a lot. Six-hour drive. They turned into like an eight-hour drive both ways when you have a baby with you.

You know, but it was a lot of fun. The wedding was awesome. Jake Lewis is married, so that's exciting. But, yeah, I'm on the mend still, and it might be just like, hangovers don't hit the same anymore, you know. I'll just say you're losing your fastball a little bit. Like, you've been doing this together for a while now. You know, like you were barely 21 when we started.

Yeah. You still had it. Like, you could go hard. For sure. I would be dead and you'd be fine. And now you're starting to catch up to you. Yeah, two days of heavy drinking in a row, just like have me, I'm down day two of not drinking. And I still feel like I need another two Sundays.

Like, you know, in a roast, I can just sit here and marinate and gamble and do nothing and recover. But, you know, alas, we're adults. And so get back on the wagon. Monday is here. And, you know, we'll just win some more money tonight. why not it's easy. The universe has given us a Monday night football game. We have the commanders on the road in San Francisco.

Seven and a half basically across the board. It is a little bit of like it's moving closer to seven at this point. And the total shop around 51.5, 52. He had a lean there. You know, interesting game here with the commanders getting, I think a little bit more healthy, at least compared to where they've been the last couple of weeks in the past catching core.

not as healthy a running back with uh jacori crosky mayor out here so we have a little bit more of a condensed core here interested to see how much uh and how successful they are running the football we're expected to be too too much san francisco has been pretty stout against the run here um any thoughts on this uh matchup take it wherever you want yeah i have a lot of thoughts mostly on different units i think uh and less so about the game i would lean san francisco minus seven and a I think we played them in Circa. I think we're, are we 3.0 and 1 right now in circa? Three.

Yeah, and Pat's are tough. Like, we got there. It was a tough sweat. I thought we were going to push. And then Rable, and I gave him a shoutout, like, Respector of Cohen, kicked a field goal to put us up 10. I thought we're going to be good. And then, you know, Gino takes the jets right down pretty quickly.

And they do the old, like, oh, well, we're getting two scores anyway. So let's just get the field goal now, try the on. side kick. Of course, they hit the field goal and then the path's knee out. So yeah, we pushed the paths, which felt like a good one, 17 to three of the half, another good Drake main game. But alas, did not get us over the hump. But yeah, hey, no, no L's on the week if the Niners take care of business. That feels good. Yeah, I like the Niners here. I just think that they score a lot. Like, I mean, I could see 30 plus here from this Niners team. And Jane Daniels has been dinged up. He looked okay, you know, running the ball,

last week. The receiving corps is banged up. Like, Diggs should play. McClureen should play. Antonio Williams will be out there a good bit. So, I don't know. And then the running game, specifically, no Jacori-Kroski-Marratt.

Like, Rashad White used to me just, like, a guy that I would rip unders on every week because he stinks. Like, I mean... Not good. There... I have discussions about this basically every year because everyone would hype him up as, like, a great zero-r-b candidate for whatever four or five years. I'd be like, it doesn't matter because when he gets the starting role,

he's terrible. And so now we're there. I'm, you know, somewhat interested in an under on his prop, but I don't know. Where are you at on him? 45 yards. It's kind of low, but. Is, um, I was interested in like JCP unders this week. It was on like my early list, uh, with, you know, some of the way that his usage was trending, uh, late the week prior. And then Rashad White, like just thought he could get me a little bit more. There was this, you know, Fandul who usually not first to much, had a combined rushing and receiving number floated out early in the week.

So I took a 35 and a half combined Rashad White. So again, could be some LCLV feels pretty good as we sit here today with that price. But yeah, overall, I'm not bullish in the player. Like I say, he feels like I'll say this generation because we're not a full generation removed from Ronald Jones. but he's like the new Ronald Jones, you know, just buster, just, you know, everyone wants to zero RBM and he just doesn't do much when he gets the opportunity. It's not really good at the game, but might be on the field a decent amount tonight. That's, I don't hate the under.

Well, that's the problem, though. I was like, well, I mean, do you, what do you have him projected for? So he's 12 and a half carries here leaning over and then 44 yards. Like, he kind of reminds me of almost like Woody Marks this week where I'm like, well, I think he's, not good and it's like, you know, not a great matchup, but he's just going to be on the field like so much and get so many carries that it's tough for me to be like, oh, I like this under because Austin Eccler is going to play a little bit, right? But I don't know. You know, we just don't know how much he's going to play there. I would lean towards him probably not playing

very much. That means it's going to be a lot of Rashad White, which is not where you want to be. Yeah, I have like low 50s. Yeah, exactly. It's just like tough to reject him for less, right? Like, if we got low 50s, I would definitely take the under. That, I love that. But we're nowhere near that. We're at 44. Like, Rashad White could easily see 13 or 14 carries. And so, I mean, what do you need to be even?

It's harder to turn the dials down so much that you're like, you're just suppressing rushing attempts in the backfield. They're like a pretty high rate, knowing that you're not giving a ton of rushing attempts to Austin Echler, right? Like, Austin Echler probably comes in and takes some passing game work, if anything. And like, Austin Eccler's line is seven and a half receiving yards. Yeah. That's not an exciting click, but it's pretty low.

Now, again, he's run 10 routes in his two games for the team. He's been targeted on three. So he's got a 30% target per route rate, Connor, on 10 routes. So. Well, I am interested to see how they use the two in tandem that if like Rashad White becomes kind of more an early downback for them or if, if not, like, does Austin Ackler become more of an early downback? Like, I just don't know what it's going to look like,

because they have very, like, overlapping skill sets. Like, they were always kind of satellite back plus type players, right? Like, pass catching plus players. And now that's all they have. Like, this is, I don't know what they're going to do. I think they're going to switch drives. You know, like, that's why there's so much volatility in these numbers. I think that it's probably going to be mostly Rashad White.

But I think also Nekler's number so low that even he gets two or three targets, which I think is more than possible against the Niners, who lead the league in receptions allowed to running backs, I believe, at this point. like I think both Echler and Rashad White could get there to be honest especially with like the Niners to score a lot I think both are pretty interesting and kind of coincides well

with an under that you played earlier today I know you released Chig Ocquo under is it 26 and a half receiving yards yep 26 and a half I think with the thought process of like hey coming off of an inflated game no McLaurin no digs those guys are back that's kind of a strength of the

nineers defense probably you're going to get I've heard Warner in coverage. It's a little bit of a different beast than what he had going on last week. So, yeah, the Echler thing is a tough. Like, part of it's like, we were just in Vegas for like circus sign up weekend and like, also you're just hanging out.

He's just like in the radio row, just like bouncing and doing interviews with whoever wanted him. And he's just like, yeah, you know, I'm not betting. I'm not getting involved in anything because there's a chance that I sign with someone soon and might come back. And it's just like, yeah, now I'm considering a couple weeks later betting on him on a Monday night football game, which is bizarre, bizarre scenario.

Yeah, I forgot where he dropped the hint that he was going. I don't think it was Washington, though, but I think it's just the way things shook out. He's here. I mean, he looked like he was a good shape, obviously. Yeah, he's going to play a big role here. So, yeah, I think it's like kind of stay away for me. I don't know. Maybe we'll get like a pregame report or something about what the usage is going to be like. Maybe that'll help guide things. But yeah, Chig Under, I liked. Kittles numbers are massive, 67 and a half. They're not posting a lot of other stuff because of Mike Evans status.

He's like a true game time decision, they said. If he goes, I mean, he's probably going to catch three or four balls no matter what. I just don't think he's going to have much juice. Like after the catch, it's not like it's been his really thing anyways, but it's probably just me catch and fall down type of game. And so I wonder who will see more between Jacob Cowing, Jordan Watkins, like if you could sort through that I mean here we've got some Evans number

63 and a half I mean that would be interesting but I mean this seems high to me 66 and a half we don't even this guy's playing this is how he's been all year though I feel like we've done the Mike Evans thing every single week and he's just awesome

right like awesome against Seattle limited limited limited like we didn't is probably gonna play but how healthy is he like great secondary goes out in like dominates. So he's just he's tough. I'm not stepping in front of it. It is an inflated kill line. Commanders have struggled against tight ends. But at the same time, like, who's left? Where is it? Brennan Cooks? And like, you know, use check is back. And like,

Jacob, like, what is, what's going on? Like, who's catching these passes? It's a, it's a tough prop night for all these reasons. So, yeah, I feel good about where the bags are packed on Rashad White. Like, I also would say, like, what are some of the things? some alts on Echler, like seven and a half feels like a decent look, but what's like Echler catching 20 yards? Like, that seems very, very viable. Yeah, so like three to one on him getting 20 yards. I mean, that seems, just because you don't know the roles.

Like, what if Rashad White just comes to the early down JCM role and they decide, all right, Ackler, you're going to play Rashad White role and even more. And then Ackler ends up with like four catches, you know? Yeah, thousand percent. because we know one of our guys on the team, I forget who was inquiring maybe Thursday or Friday last week. And I went back and I looked at Jane Daniels

like checkdown rates and they're like league average. I know that sometimes we think like Russian quarterbacks don't check down as much. But actually we've seen like, again, pretty league average checkdown rates from Daniel. So it's not like something where I'd be like, oh, well, part of that's tied to Russian quarterback who doesn't check down. Like no, he's a fair amount of checkdowns.

So I don't know. I feel like that's a, you know, a ceiling outcome that's maybe we're chasing in almost four to one in 20 yards. Like we're talking about it pretty low, pretty low bars. Points bettable, Connor. Open up your points bet app. We should be points betting. They do have, so they implemented that type of thing, by the way.

We haven't talked about this yet on Kalshi and on Prop Builder. They have something similar. Now, Prop Builder, I'm almost sure is like ripping you off. I haven't, I just like stopped looking at it. It's like gives you a line like 30 yards higher or whatever. and like caps you really low. It's not a good deal. But Kalshi, I think has this.

They call it like ladders or whatever, but it's like, I think they uncapped the upside. I don't know. It's pretty interesting. I'm trying to pull it up now to see what's available. Also, Polymarket has been taking a ton more action recently with like player props. So, yeah, they have escalators and ladders.

I don't, like payout grows every reception. Yeah. So you could get, well, they only have Kittle McCaffrey. McLaurin listed they don't want exposure onto the shitters it makes sense yeah

because that's where you can really 1,000% yeah I don't know interesting interesting stuff hard to scale someone that's lined so high already it's you know

the anti points bet that was that risk was never worth would never be worth to squeeze in that format but yeah rest in peace so

but otherwise they don't have a lot of takes in this game I mean you know we're pulling for the Niners because we have it in our millions. I'm probably not going to the window independently on the seven and a half. Less it drops to seven, which again, I don't know that it's dropping to seven, but you can look at the juice.

We're moving closer there too. Yes, white comment in the chat. We just kind of touched base on the white. Again, feel good about some of the early stuff, but I think we both think 44.5 is a little high. personally just wouldn't be something I'd be chasing the game state could get out of hand really quickly here right and like the the problem is even at 12 carries he needs to average like 3.7 yards per carry to get over i think that's just like a really good indicator of where he's going to be like

to bet the under he needs to be extremely bad which he is bad but you know again like even bad player can run for a 5 or 10 yard rip and then you know it's really tough to go under there but the over I mean, the game state, yeah, like you said, it has to be in control. Like, he could have 40 yards under in the fourth quarter and not get another carry. That's very possible. So, I don't know. For me, it's a stay away and I love the juicy unders there. Two, so I've been building out this model kind of in the background for fun, two different models, which I think you're going to, you're going to love.

One, you know about when you don't. So I built out a longest rushing model that's been doing pretty well. Let's here. So far this season, 77 and 55. for I think it's like plus eight units basically across domestics. Probably not going to release them, but might start dumping them in the Discord, just because availability is like trash

for the most part until game time. But CMC under 15.5 is popped as well as Rashad White under 12.5 longest. If you look at some of the, basically what it does is it takes some of their historical distributions, factors in the matchup, factors in how often that team allows those types of runs, sorts out different runs where it's impossible to gain that many yardage, so you can't like, you know, like a goal line run doesn't count as like against your historical rate of 10 plus yard runs, things like that.

It kind of plugs it together and blends it. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. The McCaffrey one obviously is super sweaty, but that's kind of why, like, it has been popping with a lot of these really good players that you're like, shit. I don't really want to be taking this, but I just bet it anyways. And it's been doing all right. So I'll probably start working more in some capacity. But those are the two that looked good tonight, according to. What's your McCaffrey line right now? Well, I mean, it's saying, it's a lean or a, it just gives me like a percentage that it calculates, but it says not to actually use that percentage as like a likelihood, which doesn't really make a ton of sense.

But I do use like the sharp market average to create like a carries line, basically. So I use like a, Cali, ProfitX, whatever, and then that gives it, like, how many carries is going to get, and then uses the percentage of, like, I mean, they, so they only allow 1.7% of runs to gain 16 plus yards. And then, you know, a certain number of his carries only come with no room to reach the line. So, again, there's like, it's just like a, when you factor in the actual rates, it's extremely low, but then when you factor it more towards, like, what, the difference. distribution of what could happen.

It's still like a good, a good lean here, I think. Nice. Um, he's my projections. I do have, like I project actually what the longest rush is going to be to. So it's like,

you know, what is your saying? Uh, he's like 13.8. Oh, okay. Nice. All right.

That's good. What about Rashad? I mean, I think he stinks. So you could just, I, you know, I really have the Rashad of the non-nath play.

But I looked at, I looked at the McCaffries earlier. So I could pull it up. It'll take me a few minutes. But yeah, I don't have the Rashad off the top of the head. And he probably really hard because there's recent distribution would be pretty tight. Yeah.

But anyways, those are two, I think, some fun liens. What's the new model? Oh, I built a NHL shots on goal model. Let's go. Yeah. So I built a shots. That one's actually been doing even better. I think that's, okay, so sorry.

The NFL longest rush one is 89 and 64 on the season. then the NHL model, 7755. Now, you've taken a lot of, like, some juicy ones, but basically it's like taking low volume shooters and the under on shots on goal, which, again, not surprising. All of these bets are going to be unders pretty much. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Shots and goals play of the day. So, all right, let's see here. What do we got here? I got Porter-Marre. Okay. Under one and a half shots on goal. You can get this like plus, 105, I think, on Sears.

No one knows that team he plays for? I have no idea. Oh, no. I know a game it's in. Colorado at Philly. I don't know which team he plays on, but that's fine. And then San Jose Sharks at Toronto, Nicholas Paul under 1 and F shots on goal.

I got it at minus 130. It's out to minus 150. Still says it's good, not as good as the other one. So there you go. Let's don't. There you go. Philly, I don't know what team plays on. No, yeah, I didn't know any of it.

Yeah. I bet, dude, I bet six of these other day it went six and oh. I just like didn't even look at it, didn't watch the games, just check the account the next morning. I'm like, this is great. You know, none of the other days went six and no, but it's, you know, it's adding up. It's like, I back tested it both of these over last year's data and then have it tracking this year's data. So it's like, I mean, a year plus sample. So it's not nothing.

Good you. you and Klaus are going to have to get it together because, you know, Kloss is finally, he's starting to branch out a little bit and he's, he built some NHL stuff over the weekend because he got bored. So you're going to put your, your model heads together and start building some NHL stuff. Who knows? Four for four, four, four hockey.

Yeah, I mean, why not? If it makes money, money's green. That's all the matters. I don't care what sport is saying, if you got any ping pong models, if you got any, you know, KBO models, So just drop them in the Discord. And we'll check it out. I'll back test them for you and we'll figure out if it's worth anything, you know.

You're in like the perfect range for like a good ping pong model because you're, you have a newborn. So like if you wanted to watch like, you know, Russian ping pong and like sweat it on the app at like 3 a.m. You might be up feeding the baby, handling a crime baby. So you're like in prime. You want to sweat that stuff live, start bending live. Like you're, you're kind of in the zone. zone for that. I'm all in. I mean, I've been trying to just get her back to sleep like as quickly as

possible so that I can like, you know, go back to being a functioning human. But like it's, you know, the old days, you know, the early days when she'd be up forever and you know, feeding her and doing all the stuff. Yeah, I would be watching. I mean, the World Cup was nice. So sometimes it was on pretty late. Yeah. Ping pong might be the new thing, though. Maybe I'll just have that up. I usually just doomscroll Twitter, but, um, productive. I think it's better probably to have some action down. You know, I got to teach her how to start gambling from a young age. Yeah. When Jackson's little, I rewatch a Game of Thrones.

Oh, nice. While I was dealing with a, you know, sad, awake baby. So that's more productive. It's more productive for sure. Yeah, ping pong streets are next for sure. You're in your zone. Definitely a pivoted off of the Monday night football game. But, yeah, I mean, in the chat, Antonio Williams, over two and a half receptions.

I mean, I like the player. I worry about his involvement with, you know, both digs. you know, and Terry McCorrenbach, considering he had, I think, a little bit of runway to do more without them over the last couple weeks, but plus money. Again, probably more of a feel than anything they'm going to find. Projection-wise, it's an edge. Just a lot of unknowns, especially on the San Francisco side.

So it's not a great, great prop betting environment. So I like Conner's Under on the McCaffrey longest and go-niners, I guess. Yeah, I mean, I don't even know if there's, like, fun alt. Echler alts, maybe Kittle Altz, if you want to play a stud over, I think it's fine. If you think Evans is banged up at all. Probably the best one. What's up? That's probably the best stud alt.

Yeah, I would agree. Like, the entire commander's receiving corps is injured as well. So, like, one of them might be good. One of them also might catch, like, one ball on three targets and just be, like, running wind sprints out there. We really just don't know. It sucks that we're in week, whatever, six at this point. and like half of every team is already injured, it seems like. But I think it actually opens a better betting opportunity.

So I'm not too mad about it. Yeah. As long as you get some of the books that I want to take on, some of the low level guys, that helps. Again, you might get the situation like this. I think we have a pretty different board, like an hour before kick, right?

When we get an active, there's 90 minutes before we have a better sense of who's in, who's out. You know, again, you can take advantage of this. Sharpstacks on the screen. If you have not taken advantage of the seven-day free trial, I genuinely don't know why you would not like you don't put a credit card in to do anything like just get in there check it out a free seven day trial like promo code noon and 50 gets you 50% off Connor 50 there's other different things

that are out there head over to the site 444.com click on the deal section up top lots of different ways to get access to all the things that we got going on this season so yeah sharp stacks an awesome tool even if you aren't using the EV tool and aren't I think your, uh, chig is in there. Is it? I think chig on like one of the soft lines I saw earlier.

Uh, looks like it was popping if you had like, I think Rivers still had the 26 and a half. I think one other book had the, uh, 26, you got hockey stuff in here. Look at you.

Well, I also, uh, I also like turned off a lot of the shitter books. I just, I got all customized to whatever weird, smart books that I use. Um,

you say, love enough. Hard, Hard Rock's giving you shots on goal stuff? They're taking your shots on goal action? No, I just clicked all here. To add the other books. I know I can't use Hard Rock or most of them, but you find a way.

I mean, look at all these shots on goal props that are popping here. I mean, this is crazy. See, this is more towards, you know, hockey stuff. I mean, plus 125 on something that's like even money across the board is crazy. Hard Rock needs to fire their hockey trader. Kyle, with the Fred Warner call out, you know, I will see pretty much in the entire time of Jane Daniels being quarterback. Opposing linebackers have fared well against the commanders. I don't have Fred Warner as like a bedable edge based off of like what it would take for me to play it officially.

But if you wanted to tackle a sweat tonight, no problem with the Fred Warner one for sure. Good at the game. Benefits from, you know, them attempting to run. Benefits from them throwing in the, you know, to the running backs, you know, throwing out to the flag. that's. Yeah. Nothing bad to say about Fred Warner. But that's, that's it. Oh, it looks like,

okay, Builders getting involved. We got a little bit. Builder tackles and assist lines here the last little bit. So interesting to see some stuff to monitor there for sure. All right. Take a look. Hopefully we can get some other plays involved.

Yeah, we got. Like you see. Shafter saying, Trey, Most, Jordan McGee, and Jeremy McNichols are all coming off injured reserve tonight for the game. against San Francisco. Jeremy McNichols. Interesting. All right. So like how much does he play?

Yeah. Well, I mean, probably not much, but enough to be annoying. Enough to be annoying. This is like, isn't he the exact same type of player as the other two already as well? Like yeah. Shitty running back and catch passes. I mean, basically where they're at. So I got three of them. That's great. That's, it's super annoying. None of them profiles like a thumper. Yeah, it's going to be a mess. We'll see. what happens. Does the prop builder have Nick Cross lined here? Where is Nick Cross? Is he lined at all? I don't think he's lined at all. Okay. He's coming back. We're going to see if he's back. Okay. Okay. All right.

We'll keep an eye on those. So, all right, appreciate everyone hanging out. As always, I hit the thumbs up before you take off, subscribe to the channel. Move the line wherever you listen to the podcast. Move the line on YouTube. Connor, I will be back on Wednesday afternoon. touching on the week seven slates, talk about our millions picks. Maybe we get into some futures a little bit. Let's just kind of see where the board's at. Some awards.

We're about a third of the way through. Some of the award stuff is probably worth going over. And obviously, prop drop is Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern. Connor, myself, John Hyslop. We're going to get over. We get Connor back. The vibes are going to be back.

Parley is going to be back this week. So I'm looking forward to that. So I appreciate it as always for Connor and Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. You know,