Move The Line - Copy of Best NFL Week 2 Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 21, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen close out NFL Week 2 with a full look at the Monday Night Football player prop market. They discuss their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props, breaking down the matchups, projections, and odds that stand out before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome the move of line. A little Monday night football preview presented by Sharpstack, Ryan Noon. Join here is always by Connor Allen. Coming off of an interesting week. You never know what to make in the week one stuff. What's signal, what's noise, variance. Maybe we're in it a little bit of variance

occasionally though. How are we doing today? Yeah, it was an interesting Sunday. I think there was some as expected. The Niners absolutely smack down the dolphins as expected. I mean, just a thorough dismantling and it, again, looked like one of the best teams

against one of the worst teams in exactly what it was. On the other hand, we saw a Bucks team disappoint massively against the Browns, really, really in a big way. Defensively, blitzed the lot, just weren't able to get home,

weren't able to do anything. Their linebackers were terrible. It was a disaster. Then Baker continued to make mistakes. Miss open throws down field, fumbled, pick, just like shooting themselves in the foot every chance possible.

who wound up losing the game outright to a team that didn't play all that well. And Deshaun Watson played his best game in six years. And that's how you lose as an eight and a half point favorite. So, yeah, I would say a really interesting week. And then we got a good game tonight. So there's like, you know, obviously one massive piece here that we'll talk about. But, yeah, lots of interesting angles, I think. Also Survivor.

Like, oh, man. Awful. We don't play. I hate Survivor. Um, but it's, it's, uh, it's been a tough, it's been a tough go. It's been a tough go for anyone in the, uh, million scouts. We another 42, no, no picks, 42. No picks in week two.

Just insane to me. Like, what are you, what are you doing? Like you went through all that to get a proxy. Maybe you went out to Vegas to do it. You can't get your picking in week two. It's just, it's insane. But, uh, yeah, I don't get it. That makes no sense to me.

Bucks took people down. Chargers again took people down. Chargers are. It's tough, man. That's not looking good. Not looking good. We went three and two in millions, five and five through two weeks. So we're, you know, tread and water.

We'll see how that kind of, you know, bears out versus the field. You know, the bucks did kick us in the shin a little bit. Bears too. We're talking about, you know, betting bears all the totals over into the parlays and the hangings. It's pretty on us. Yeah. I think the parlay, we too, out slop and I almost like quote tweeted myself it might be the worst part we've ever put together

just like in results the only thing that it was your parker washington leg i'm pretty sure all the rest was just so bad it was awful uh so yeah that wasn't good and i'm getting chirped at by viking fans in the comments and honestly i deserve it so it's totally fun there you go so the way can take it yeah rough one day will circle the wagons to get back on for friday so drop drop show we'll see how see how that goes but uh yeah monday night's football um interesting one injuries are really i think uh at the forefront i guess particularly pukin de kua uh how that shapes you know both this game um and the betty markets for it obviously for the props too so uh what do we eyeball in here and uh how do you handicap this without uh without puka is it just

furgy time bounce back fergy like uh we do with colston lovelin that didn't work um yeah i that's what I initially thought. And yeah, Colson Loveland just straight up didn't work. Ferguson, I think, could work. I'm definitely going to play him some DFS. I think that based on everything they talked about in the off season, based on everything we saw so far with his usage, that it could work.

I'm not, I don't think that it's like, I'm excited to lay minus 110 at Terrence Ferguson's props of like two and a half receptions and 34 yards. But I, I kind of think actually I'm interested to see if they post 2-2 Atwell props, to be honest. Because look like he was inactive. He's a healthy scratch last week.

But behind, it looks like so. It looks like Pooka's going to be out. Jordan Whittington's going to be out. So you have Canada Mumpfield. And then you have Xavier, Xavier Smith, who played a little bit. And then I think that it's going to be Tutu. But I can easily see Tutu just like sliding in if when they play, you know, 11 personnel and just playing more.

Like they did literally all like a bunch last year. Like he was like their whatever, why does you're four, three, three four basically. And so I think that that could be interesting there. I don't see any props for him right now to be honest, like yardage props. But they do post something. It's going to be like five yards or something like that.

So that could be a fun one. You know, see if he's on any of the, you know, sometimes there's a, you know, a book or two that are a little bit trickier. see if we can get, no, he's not up there yet. I was going to say sometimes you can get some stragglers. Yeah, it was about 365.

Sometimes they'll post things that no one else's posted, and their API doesn't play nice, so we don't always get to see it. But still no two-two stuff. But that would be interesting. Again, not even being posted, you would think it would be fairly low if it comes out. And we did have an instance last year,

I believe it was, one of the Europe games, I think Cougas sat in Jacksonville game. We saw, like, a decent amount of Tutsu and a decent amount of Ferguson. So, again, single game sample of what that is. But I think there's a path there. And too, then you also have a scenario of, like, a depleted giant secondary. Like, Paulson Adiebo, they put on IR. And I don't think Deonté Banks, who basically took the job from him,

I don't think Deonté Banks plays this. tonight either. So you're probably going to get rookie Colton Hood out there for a decent amount of snaps, which is probably advantage of ramps, I would think. So I don't take advantage of that I'm still not quite sure.

It could just be a run-heavy game on the ram side. Yeah, well, but they were so run-heavy last week, though. That's the thing. It's like they were super run-heavy last week. And I don't know. Like, was it, it just felt weird. Maybe it was because Puka wasn't,

ready, Stafford wasn't running. I don't know. There was like a lot of strange stuff going on there where they were super, super run heavy relative to expectation in their previous years. So do they keep going with that or do they just start passing again?

I think you're right that given Puka probably being out, that they probably continue to run the ball a bunch. And so where does that lead, right? Is that like betting unders on the Rams? Is that betting overs on the rushing yards for some of these guys? I mean, the quorum, we're looking at 47 and a half yards. which is 10 yards higher than his prop normally is.

You know, maybe five, six-step close. You know, usually opens high 30s, close the low 40s. And then Kyrin's in the low 60s. So it's, I don't know, man. I'm kind of like, I don't know if spooked is right where it's just tough to like figure out what the best way to attack everything is here. Yeah, the Kyrin attempts number seems,

especially when you start to look at it compared to the rushing yards. I'm seeing some 13 and a halfs on on kairn, which seems a little light, to be honest. Again, 11 last week, it was more of a close split with Kyrin with 11 and Blake Horn with 10. I don't know. I don't know that that's a number I'm excited about. It does look light in a pro rams handicap, I think.

Yeah, 13 and a half. But, you know, yeah, and decent, decent juice. There's some decent spots out there. So, yeah, I just don't know how to. play it and it feels like your your best bet is to see if there's something that's teams and almost just taken under on something that seems to be kind of getting away because there's just I think more unknowns than answers. Anything on the giant side that seems clear to you? I mean, another run-heavy approach for them last week, obviously in the positive game script,

Jackson Dart ran a ton. There's a lot of Cam Scatibu. Though Scadaboo wasn't really involved at all in the passing game, which is surprising because it seems like, you know, his skill set's pretty strong there. It was more Devin Singletary than I think anyone was expecting. You know, obviously it became kind of a two-headed monster in the passing game with Isaiah likely and then elite neighbors, you know, getting a target at a ton, even though he ran, you know, limited amount of routes. Any ways to attack on the giant side that you like?

Yeah, I think we saw the Niners combat some of the Rams pass rush with a lot of like quick passes. And we saw the same from the Giants to an extending against Dallas. Like they would come with a quick passing approach. and so I think that that could maybe lean towards a Jackson Dart completion over. I thought about that. Now there's two things working against that. One is the game was super slow.

Two, they still ran the ball a bunch, like establishing it. I think that they just had a nice amount of possessions. When they did throw the ball, it was pretty quick. So that was kind of like on my maybe list. I think that could be interesting, especially if they fall behind, you could easily have a bunch of completions. Now, rush attempts for Dart, we're looking at six and a half. I think he ran the ball 11 times last week.

I don't, it seems a little light. I don't know. What do you, have you looked at your projections for Dart at all? Like, he ran a bunch last year. There was a bunch of rumors that he wasn't going to run. And then he still ran anyways.

Um, is you just going to keep running? Like that, that's also an option. He's going to keep running. Yeah. I think he's going to keep running 11 times in a positive game script against a pretty average pressure group.

Obviously the pressure takes a hit here without Miles Garrett. But like, it's still an above average pressure group. Aaron Donald's going to play. Um, You know, you still have Byron Young on the other side. Josiah Stewart's pretty interesting who's going to fill in, I think, mostly for Miles Garrett. You know, they can, they can generate pressure all over the place.

So what's a trailing game script? Yeah, I mean, there's some rogue five and a halfs out there that you're going to lay a little bit of a number on. Maybe a longest rush, what's his longest rush at? You know, just one spike rush 12 and a half. You know, he had a long 22 last week. Like, that feels interesting to me in probably. one of the safer giants bets on the board. I don't think he can help himself.

I don't think he can help himself. I think it's just how he's wired. Yeah, I mean, you're just like, I don't know, like you're trying to retrain someone who's just such a competitive person

and like a high level athlete and they, part of their game, a big part of their game is scrambling, you know, and then being a playmaker. So I think it's tough to, it's tough to like get that out of him, right?

You know, unless he's just like, guys are open all the time. And even then, like when you're under pressure, they're just going to run. So yeah, I think those are both pretty interesting looks.

The Singletary rushing numbers, like 14 and a half, 15 and a half right now. I don't know what to do with that because I kind of think that they might have eased Cam Skadaboo in and they still ran the ball a ton. Like if they're underdogs, they're probably not going to be able to run the ball as much. Like does Singletary really get like, I don't know, four, five carries here? I tend to think no. Definitely playing with fire as I like to do. But I don't feel confident enough.

So I'm not betting the under, but I would lean under at 15 and a half on Singletary. I don't think it's a bad look. Because again, it went. The only thing is that he was involved so early. Like he came in on the second play of the game and got to carry. Yeah, that's true. You know, it wasn't like he was like mixed in in garbage time. Like he, I remember it was so weird.

Like, why is, why is Singletary coming in already? Oh, I'm like giving him the ball. Like second play of the game. So that was a little bizarre. So that would maybe be a little nervous because otherwise it does smell like a conrader. round play for sure. And the dark stuff is like you teach him how to, you know, teach him how to take fewer hits, slide, step out of bounds, be like actually training him and rewiring him to stop running.

It feels really hard, like really and probably not fair expectation of him. So, you know, rushing yards around 31 and a half. Like I said, I like the attempts too. Plus money at six and a half. You can get, you can lay a little bit of five and a half. I think the dart stuff's probably my favorites. It was on my list from over the, like, Thursday. We're starting to compound, you know, things I'm looking at for the week.

I did have dart rushing stuff because it's just like he's, this guy cannot help himself. He ran 11 times. They were up all game. Like, yeah. I like that angle. Another one for the sickos out there. Blake Corum ran two routes last week.

Kairn ran 20. You can get under half a reception and plus money. It's like plus one 30. You could get under one and a half receptions for like minus 300 on Fandul and Novig right now. I don't hate it. I feel like it's maybe it was just an outlier. Again, it all goes back. Like if the Rams decided to go super pass heavy, like maybe, I don't know, maybe something changes.

I don't know. It's a little bit scary, I would say. But I mean, if the usage from last week sticks, right? Like, he's just not going to be running many routes. I like it. It is a little sicko, but that's, I think it's a good edge. Look, we always talk about like, you know, how we get sucked in by like the appealing, running back, receiving stuff because you're like, that's such a low number. Yeah.

But maybe we need to be like going against it a little bit more proactively too instead of just like, yeah, you know what? I don't have an appetite for it. I'm not betting into that. Maybe it's like, hey, no, actually, maybe we should be looking at unders and they're just, you know, embrace the variance. And that's what I thought to last week when I bet Breece Hall under 90 and a half rushing receiving is 28 rushing yards and like 68 receiving yards or something like that. He had like a 40 yard run. Just brutal.

Led the team in receiving yards, I'm pretty sure. It was just a disaster. What a way to lose that prop. That was just, that was a mess. Patrick brings up a good point. If you want corn rushing yards, it's bad a lot off the ramps first drive. Yeah, that was a swerve talked about that.

discord and I think in our Slack chat as well I'll be looking for that it's after the first drive bet like quorum first quarter or whatever quarter it is and try and get some live action there because it's going to go down we see it every year it's like I don't know it seems like sometimes their their traders are asleep at the wheel and they forget and the computer just like auto adjusts based on million percent full line time left then like depreciated whatever that difference is and that's what they move it to um and so they that they have to hand adjust it. I think sometimes they forget.

That's a really good look and a good call because I know we mentioned that last week. That's a good call. On the defensive side, I had a couple of stack values. I mean, Abdul Carter, two to one to get a sack. And again, that's, so this is a

over a quarter sack. Yes to get a sack. Anytime sack. So Fandwell has this. Draft King literally says like, over a quarter but like seizures and uh fandul both um great at the same way so it's essentially uh you know if they get a half sack they they they they win um eduel carter available like two to one 220 um and i have a fair value like plus 140 so that's a decent look um and if you can find

josiah stewart uh there are some books i think draft kings has jesia stewart uh at three plus 320 to get a sack. And I have Josiah Stewart at like plus 180 to get a sack. So a pretty solid edge on that one. He should be the one filling in the most on the edge in place of Miles Garrett. So look at a little bit of defensive stuff. No tackles, but those are interesting. Yeah, the tackle market was pretty thin.

It seemed like I played a little bit of one of those. It was, was it the linebacker? was lined at I play admins under like eight and a half It was like only minus one 20 I think that's gone at this point So I played a little bit there But um sack wise though okay

Aaron Donald Okay so it's showing our odd screen You can bet under a quarter of a sack on drafting Can you do that? Okay Only minus 190 How much is he gonna play? I mean you're betting against like historical dominance

But like how much is he going to play Like that seems really short that's the thing he's impossible to he's really hard to project like i intentionally put his his like tackle number in a range that like is just kind of off the radar so i don't have to make a decision on on aaron donald and just want to see how much he's playing um i would probably i'd rather bet like under two and a half tackles and pay the juice there than mess of the sack because i would think they probably use it more like passing down situational versus like baseline um you know, base rate early down stuff where he would accumulate tackles.

I'd be more terrified of running into a under sack bet here for him. That makes sense. Yeah, that makes sense for sure. Yeah, I was just like, we know how much he's playing. Yeah, it's like, like his sack is like, he's more likely to get a sack than Abdul Carter right now. That's what they're like lying it as.

Yeah. You're paying for the name. Yeah, exactly. So to me that seems crazy. First game back, all the hoopla, like, you know, again, if you want to fade someone like that, which I'm apt to and I like to do. I think that's a good look.

Yeah. Yeah, no, it's kind of a fun, fun defensive one there. Any of the, I mean, you mentioned some of the corners and stuff like that are banged up, secondary for the Giants. Any impact there or any of the other guys,

you think you're going to play more now? No, they're not going to play Colton Hood out there for us to bet on. You know, be a nice spot your boy, Drew Phillips, who I know you like. Oh, yeah, Drew. But does Drew, like, move outside

and play a little. bit on the perimeter with, you know, in place of Colton Hood or is he still relegated to, you know, mostly that slot role? And what does that look like in a spot without hookah? Like, how much 11 personnel do you see from? Why not much? I'm not sure. So, yeah, that's, you know, three and a half. I have to take a look at that because I just see that popping now. Three and a half on the Andrew Phillips line. So he's pretty efficient, but three and a half, four tackles is hard to get to if you're

only playing 50% of snaps. we need to figure out who is going to start in 11 personnel because I don't know. And if you could if it's Mumpfield, if it's Smith, if it's 2, 2, there's definitely some value here because you saw last week, even though they were like super 13 personnel heavy and like we're using a ton of Ferguson, a ton of pig beat or like using them. They were out there. They were playing.

Two minute drills like passing situations. They were still went to 11th. Like Whittington was out there a good bit. And, like, they were still using the randos. So now if you have even more randos out there, like, these guys props are like 10 yards or like 14 yards. Like it's one catch, two catches maybe, you know, and that's very doable.

So if you guys see any pre-game reports, I'll be looking for it. Like maybe, I don't know, you can see who's lining up with the ones and warm up, stuff like that. Like that kind of stuff can matter and be pretty useful. So I don't know. We'll see. Yeah. Keep her out for that.

But yeah, nothing, I don't think there's anything to leverage right now. I agree with you though I think we're not going to see no 11 personnel just going to be less 11 personnel And it probably isn't like Oh it's going to be Ferguson He's going to be I don't think it's going to be like that necessarily

Maybe a little bit but not not a lot Yeah the problem with Mumfield is he was the Devante Adams replacement Not the Pooka replacement Right So does that matter? It could matter I don't know like Sean McVeigh doesn't whatever he wants like Mumfields could not even play

Basically the entire game I mean, play like, you know, what I say, not even play, like, like five snaps, probably. You know, I have no idea. Patrick said he's not betting it's AD. Makes sense. Don't blame you. Is Puga officially out? The market, as Patrick said, is definitely leaning that way, it seems like.

Yeah. There have been no good reports. I don't think in the last 24 hours. I don't think anything is going to move more than like a yard or two. If anything moves, it's, in my opinion, probably like an overreaction, honestly, to it. Like, they're lining things that. you know, shouldn't be lined if Puka is playing. Yeah.

That's the response. It's like if Puka starts the trends is jump into these numbers that have doubled. And, uh, yeah, that all the rando unders on the receiving for Mumfield, Smith, you know, all those, all of Bums.

Probably T-Ferg should be like in the high teens, low 20s. Yeah. With upside. You know, with upside, of course, you know, but like the,

yeah, his lines in the low 30s and he, goose eggs. the last week. So. All right. This is enough for, for Monday and football.

Yeah. And come back on Wednesday. And we'll get more of our week three game by game previews. We'll talk about the plays we're looking at for circa millions, bounce back week. Maybe I feel good.

Five and O. Five and O coming. Just get some momentum going. Why not us? It's coming. I didn't come back, obviously, on Friday for the prop drop. So move the line. When we listen to the podcast,

move the line on YouTube. And if you want all the official stuff that we have going on 444.com slash plans. It's the plans page. You want to get the picks, at least the pick side, but there's discounts to get Sharpstack. And again, those come with everything that we do at 444. So if you're doing DFS, fantasy, all that stuff, you know, get the picks and that comes with all of it. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.