Move The Line - Early Bold Predictions for the 2024 NFL Season

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Don't miss Ryan and Connor's early bold predictions for the 2024 season! They analyzed the boldest predictions and the best way to bet on that happening. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move line presented by four for four bets i'm ryan unan joined here as always by my friend connor allen it is exciting time in the world of sports it's u.s open uh we have the celtics a game away from banner 18 18, Connor, but football never stops. How are we doing? I'm good. Yeah, I don't know if I'm ready to face the wrath of Twitter, but I'm debating it. Every single NBA game that goes by, I just want to tweet out,

the NBA sucks. I just could not further, like, I just couldn't hate it more. It's just terrible. Like, there was a, the first half last night was great. The Celtics were up, were like losing, you know, by a lot, came back. Then they blew a 20-point lead. Like, that's what it took for the game to be somewhat interesting, is the Celtics blowing a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter.

And they still ended up winning by seven. I don't know. Like, and that was the most interesting game in the series was this. And it, frankly, wasn't that interesting for me because, again, I'm not a Celtics fan, so I don't care. You're happy. All my Celtics fans are happy. Me, as a fan who wants to just watch good games,

I just could not care less about Dan Bay right now. Just straight up terrible product. So I don't know if I'm ready to tweet that out yet because I know it's going to be a long day in my mentions, but this seems like a somewhat safe space so you know i can i can present you with that option yeah as we get further along in the playoffs and then you know we have more i mean they're all island games theoretically right that's designed for tv purposes you know and when you have these blowouts or you have something like that it is sometimes tough to watch if you don't have a dog in the fight or you know you don't have a a big betting card on it or whatever future that

you're sweating and you know from a fandom standpoint we've talked about it before like the celtics are kind of the only team that i'm still in like you know high school fandom mode with i don't really i don't bet the nba very much we don't cover the nba so it's like the one place where it's still kind of sacred um i'm not worrying about bets or anything like that. I still like my team from, from growing up, you know, cover golf, cover football.

I'm kind of a basketball guy at heart. This is kind of my, you know, my, my favorite sport growing up the one I was best at actually playing as well. So like it's, it's my team.

So yeah, I understand. I understand it. So yeah, get the duck boats ready. Let's just seal the deal here. Game four, put Luca and company out of their misery. Yeah. It would have been the nuggets. understand it so yeah get the duck boats ready uh let's just seal the deal here game four put

luca and company out of their misery um yeah it would have been the nuggets i think we would have probably a better series but you know hey they didn't do their part and here we are so but we're here today to talk football nfl football and it's that time of year people flow out some stuff you know you want to have some takes you start to get into some roster construction the draft we're on the other side of that we're on the other side of the meat and potatoes of free agency and really have a i think a fairly good understanding about what you know 98 percent of these rosters are going to look like as the season uh kind of comes to you know training camps and otas and all that stuff starting to pop up. So we have opinions. We have takes. We have bold predictions.

And that's where we are today. We want to float out some of our early bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season. If you want to hang with us this season, you want to get into all the bets and all the things that we're doing over at 444, you need a betting subscription. 444.com slash plans gets you the betting sub, gets you access to all that we do. So no matter how you do football speculation, old school season long fantasy, best ball, you want to get into props and all the stuff that we're doing.

You want to smash bad quarterback unders with Connor. You want to get into tackle streets with me, all those things. You get that betting sub, get in our discord. Again, insane amount of tools, data, all that stuff for you as well. So it's not just, just picks and content. Uh, there's a lot of other stuff that can help you, you know, teach a man to fish kind of a scenario. So get the betting sub, get you access to all that we're doing. Uh, you definitely want to check that out. So, all right, my friend, I'm going to give the floor to you first bold predictions, uh, go anywhere with this. I don't know any of yours um team level

player level things that we can bet on angles that we can kind of target these bold predictions what do you got yeah so the goal here for this show is kind of just like give our bold predictions and then like how we can bet on that as well so um i'm gonna start off like kind of lukewarm you know not that hot we're talking about're talking about a nice medium temperature here. Maybe you can bathe in it, maybe a little hot tub temperature here. So talking about, I like the Seattle Seahawks to win nine plus games this year. Over eight and a half wins is plus 195 at Circa. Similar odds to make the playoffs right now, which is kind of strange.

So I think the best way to play it would be plus 195 at Circa because if they're winning nine games, they probably make playoffs, but not guaranteed. Whereas if they win nine games, they win nine games and you win your bet. So I think plus 195 is a solid way to look at it. I think you can take some derivatives on them as well. If we talked about a little bit of the last episode, but I think that Mike McDonald could come in and do what he did with this Ravens defense last year. And they really, really ascend to that top five-ish, top 10 range. We're talking about a ceiling outcome here. And then offensively, we have Ryan Grubb coming in from Washington,

just completely different system than what we're used to. I think has some new innovative ideas. That doesn't always work out from the college to NFL transition, but I think that in this scenario, this blend of like old school Seattle with like just a couple, like more motion and, you know, the way you're stacking receivers, the route concepts,

things like that. When you have DK Metcalf, Jack Smith and Jake Bud, Tyler Lockett, in addition to a quarterback, Gino Smith, who, you know,

again, what has been very good at times in the last couple of years, it just hasn't always all come together. Like I think that the ceiling on this team is a lot higher than what the market's giving credit for. So I like alt overs for the Seattle team and maybe, maybe some NFC. Who knows?

Ooh. Okay. Spicy. I probably should start like NFC West, right? You probably get a pretty good number on basically a non Niners NFC West. I'm with you. I,

I danced around some Seattle stuff for this as well. I couldn't find a great way to attack it, but I'm I'm with you. I danced around some Seattle stuff for this as well. I couldn't find a great way to attack it, but I'm kind of with you. I'm a little bit optimistic. I think there's... I'm excited about the defense. I think Donald is... All the things you said. There could be a chance he's a real talent elevator, and it's hard not to be

optimistic on some of the things the offense can do too, especially if the offensive line can stay healthy. That was a massive, massive issue for them. lose your your bookend tackles for like a 10 game stretch consecutively there at the start early in the season so i think we had a great sense of of really who seattle was last year and keep gino clean protection that's kind of his thing right he's super accurate uh jsn's. Sending names. So I like Seattle. I like that quite a bit. All right.

More of my stuff is negative. I felt bad. I was trying to find some like positive stuff. I love it. That's great. All mine is positive. So this is a great balance. This is opposite for us because you're like an under guy typically.

And like when I met like a player. I'm so negative all the time. Yeah. My mind often goes to like positive stuff for like, you know, overs and stuff like that. I have to pull back on. So I'm a little all the time. Yeah, my mind often goes to positive stuff for overs and stuff like that that I have to pull back on. So I'm a little bit more negative. I'm going to start with I'm not super excited about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't love their offseason.

I think the rest of the teams in the division all got better. Basically, I was trying to have a derivative of like, okay, I can't come on the show and talk about the colts again right that's i've kind of done that right like yeah i've kind of covered my bold predictions on the colts being a viable playoff uh contender a viable threat to the texans who i think are still very much the you know the class of that division jacksonville i don't know i think they've just kind of treaded water or got worse. Losing Calvin Ridley, I think, is impactful. They get Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to add to that wide receiver room.

Isn't that somewhat redundant from how those guys work? Those don't feel like complementary players. It puts a big burden on Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram. And look, I'm okay and optimistic about maybe Trevor Lawrence taking another step. We've kind of been waiting for that. It really hasn't happened. He really hasn't been that guy, right? Like that hasn't really happened.

So that offense, I still think is kind of middle of the pack. And I think their defense took a step back. I think Ryan Nielsen could be an interesting addition from a defensive coordinator standpoint. They're probably going to play a lot more man, but that's actually kind of the problem for me is I don't believe in the quarterback room at all. I think it's a really problematic thing for them. And they brought back and retained Josh Allen

at defensive end, but they need Trayvon Walker to be the guy. He needs to start delivering on 101 type of stuff. Otherwise, the depth behind them is not very great. Rashawn Jenkins left in free agency, so I think the secondary is a problem. The schedule is kind of tough, too. When you look at how they start the season on the road to Miami, then they're home with Cleveland. Cleveland's probably a pretty good football team this year. Then they're back on the road for the next two, Buffalo and Houston.

It's kind of a really, it's a tough September for them. Then Indy's a big one, especially when you kind of consider them being viable AFC playoff contenders and in the division, that's kind of a tough stretch. So there's a couple of ways to go about this from a like betting way that I think is like interesting price-wise.

You can go Jags and miss the playoffs but mgm offers uh actually draft kings has this too in a different way starting the season oh and five uh mgm it's 15 to 1 uh is 12 to 1 on draft kings so it's basically i mean like some of those games are coin flips they're probably if i were to look at your, your matrix of, you know, spreads, there's some like within a field goal or so. I imagine, I'm sure they're, they're probably small favorites at home to Cleveland. They're probably a small favorite at home to Indian week five,

but to me, it kind of comes down to the week five game against Indy. Cause I think they're probably a comfortable dog in those three that are tough to start. So 15 to one, 12 to one on draft Kings, more readily available for people to be able to jump down on. So I think that's a tough start. Their first win probably comes on the road.

They could probably go 0-6. They get the Bears in London. They get London with the Bears and the Patriots in back-to-back weeks. So I think they find their first win in London. So 15-1, Jags start on five. Mr. Playoffs. Isn't a great price.

It's not really a bold prediction either. So only five feels more bold. Yeah. That's, that's spicy for sure. Yeah. Right now I'm looking at the look at lines. Is there a plus three and a half in week one minus one,

like you mentioned week two, but again, that's basically a coin flip plus four and a half week three plus three and a half week four and then minus two and a half week five so yeah you're really looking at i mean they can win is that like an upset in any of those games but i do think that like getting over three and a half generally in my mind is like less of a coin flip game more of like a uphill battle uh you know outside looking in so yeah it's that's kind of fun way to play at 15 to 1 also you can bet their alt under it circa uh seven and a half wins plus 235 it's not bad i mean six seven wins i mean

again six seven wins are on the lower range of their outcomes but you're getting plus 235 um yeah i don't think it's terrible to be honest um it's just my only concern is that like trevor lawrence can will them certain places but sure i mean he hasn't been consistent enough for that to happen like it's and the weapons got worse for sure i mean it's like yeah gabe davis is gonna be running cardio like i mean it's just literally i don't think he's gonna catch the ball just running like clear out routes the entire season it's like what they had calvin really doing like kind of some of the time you know like they had they had him just like sometimes the outside weapon just didn't touch the ball some games um you know so i think christian kirk's gonna feast though that's kind of an interesting way

for sure and i think he can probably has a nice little year, too, for sure. They need that, right? Because otherwise it's not a great offensive line. It's kind of middle of the pack. It just doesn't seem – it really falls on can Lawrence be who he thought he was coming into the league? Can he be a talent elevator? Can they find a way to make, whether it's Brian Thomas or Gabe Davis,

not redundant and not cardio club where, you know, if they don't hit a splashy 25 plus yard play, they're kind of not making an impact on the game. So yeah, it's, and just, I'm worried about the secondary. It's going to be a lot of man and I don't know that they have the dogs to do it. Yeah, no, I like that for sure. Number two for you, what do you got? You know, so my second one's going to be a player take.

So from here on out, I think most of the takes are a little bit aggressive. We're talking about boiling water at this point. The temperature is very, very hot. I'm going to go with Drake London leads the league in receiving yards and wins offensive player of the year. We're looking at 50-1 in most spots. If you're in our Discord, I posted before the Falcons got Kirk Cousins, there was 150-1 that we bet.

I still think 50-1 is fine. So, I mean, he was an elite prospect coming out, just hasn't had consistent volume or good quarterback play. So Drake London has seen eight-plus targets in 12 career games only, averaged 88 receiving yards in those games. That was with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ritter, Taylor Heineke as his quarterbacks. Gets a massive quarterback upgrade. They're moving on from Arthur Smith to Zach Robinson.

I think that we have schematic upgrades. We have volume upgrades. We have efficiency upgrades. Everything is coming together for Drake London to see 150 targets from a good quarterback. And now some of the counterargument I got on Twitter, I posted a similar stat about Drake London was like, oh, well, he doesn't have breakaway speed or he doesn't, you know, really win downfield too much. Doesn't make my guys miss. I just don't think that matters for a guy like Drake London. He wins in different ways.

You know, like Stefan Diggs, I mean, he's just a pure route runner and gets a lot of volume. Michael Thomas, the kind of same thing. Like there are guys who win in different ways. He's not Tyree kill. He's not Justin Jefferson. That's for sure. But you know, if you can get them 150 targets from a good quarterback, uh, I think that the ceiling is really, really high for a guy like Drake London. So for me, I think 18 to one most receiving yards is not a great price. Admittedly. I think that the 50 to one, uh, audience player of the year is a little bit better because if he leads the league in receiving yards, I think that he's a little bit more

live there. So I don't know. Kind of a fun way to get some alt exposure on Drake London. And then Fandle usually releases like 1,250 plus receiving yards, 1,500 plus, like those alts. I'll probably sprinkle a little bit on that as well with Nostra. Even if he doesn't actually lead the league in receiving yards and he's kind of in the mix, but he catches 15 touchdowns, a big-bodied red zone threat, I think that that is very much –

plus you get a better number, right? So you're kind of covering yourself both ways, and I think that's a nice little look. Yeah, I mean, I don't know that Mike Evans is a great comp for him, but Mike Evans doesn't make guys miss. He doesn't run an insane, like, diverse route tree. Like, he can beat you in contested catches. He can beat you down the field with his size, his big body, and yeah, it's hard not to argue the talent upgrade quarterback is ginormous. And I looked at his route running, too, for Matt Harmon. He's gotten better every year against

Mann, which is like a massive signal. He's played as like almost a true X receiver last year. They had him in slot a little bit more than the previous year. Like there's still, there's been early rumbles that they'll move him around a little bit more. So like that's obviously big for just like total output. You know, if you move him as like a big slot, occasionally, even like 20 to 25% of his routes coming there instead of 10 to 11%, uh, could go a long way. So,

and, and I don't view the people that they brought in with Donald Mooney and Rondo more as like legit competition. I think that's more of like helping the offense be more efficient as a whole. So it's like, just helps everyone. Yeah.

I like it. I like it quite a bit. All right. I'm going to stay in my lane. I'm going to stay on that. I'm going to go on the defensive side here for some, a couple of thoughts. Um,

let me give you a couple of looks here. i'm going to talk about some trends in terms of defensive rookie of the year that's a pretty i think predictable trends that we've seen in the last handful of years so we have five out of the last eight winners have been edge rushers after last year we have not had a safety win this since mark carrier back in 1990 so you can kind of cross those guys off your list. I think there's another predictable trend too. We've had basically for the most part of the past decade, it's been a top 15 pick.

You've only had two. You had Marcus Peters just outside of the top 15. He was 18th overall in 2015 to win defensive player of the year. The only other kind of anomaly in this situation has been Shaq Leonard, Darius Leonard with the Colts. The only non-first round selection to win defensive rookie of the year over the past 17 years.

He's also the only linebacker that's won over the past decade. So it doesn't happen very often, but I do think that that's kind of built into the price, I think, at this point, because I think that Junior Colson, linebacker for the Chargers, has a great case based on his price. 50-1 on DraftKings for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He obviously continuity coming over, working with Jim Harbaugh the last handful of years in Michigan. The linebacker room ahead of him is pretty weak. Most of the guys there have left. Denzel Perryman is kind of the de facto

linebacker one who's really strong when he's on the field, dude just gets hurt all the time. So don't feel really good about him being able to last and kind of hold onto that spot all year. I like Diane Henley. He was a second round linebacker last year that they drafted, but this coaching staff is not tied to him at all. He did not see the field much at all.

They are going to want to play Junior Colson, the guy they're familiar with, who is, I think, going to be able to eat some tackles. So I think it correlates basically to whatever you think the Chargers are going to be. You think the Chargers are going to be viable as a playoff team. I think Colson has a really nice path to breaking a little bit of the trend here of what happens with linebackers in this award. So that's kind of what, you know, Leonard did the cold set a better year than expected. He just compiled tackles.

He was on the field and the team exceeded expectations and no one really emerged. So that's kind of it too, was if none of these other edge rushers towards the top of the board, look, we went 15 picks until we got a defensive player at the top of the board. So it's not like we're going up against a will Anderson jr. From last year.

You remember the expectations are high. So when he starts to perform like people thought he was going to do, then instantly you start to go, okay, we need to reward him for this. We just don't have that Colson's fighting against. So at a price of 50 to one, where he could be a 90% linebacker that could compile tackles here. Again, one of the best missed tackle rates coming out of college in a very, very long time. Outstanding coverage linebacker too. So these are just things that are going to earn him playing time and keep him on the field.

I like that price for him too. Another one, just to kind of stay in it. If you want to stay in the mix of what the trends are telling you, that this is going to be an edge rusher, even though this guy is a little bit outside, he's going to fall outside the threshold of top 15 picks in first round. Chris Broswell, edge rusher, even though this guy is a little bit outside, he's going to fall outside the threshold of top 15 picks in first round. Chris Broswell, edge rusher for Tampa, second round pick,

57th overall, led the SEC in pressures last year at Alabama. Again, part of it is just he was behind Dallas Turner. He was behind Will Arnst Jr., so he was kind of a late bloomer prospect last year, but this guy has like NFL strength right away. Does not have like a massively diverse skillset in terms of, you know, his, his address moves. But I think he also has a clear path of playing time for Tampa Bay. And again, if Tampa Bay is good, this guy can just compile a few sacks. Uh, that's kind of what it is, right? I mean, there's, there's some playing time issues with some of the other guys ahead of him in terms of like competitors at the position not necessarily on his team it's really going to be like yaya diaby is going to be the edge rusher lead there then like joe tryon randy gregory anthony nelson those guys are all just kind of

at this point just jags right so i think if Broswell comes in and is that dude really strong football IQ, you listen to Saban talk about him when he got drafted. Like, he loved this kid. So he is also long odds-wise. I think he is 40-1. I guess they're a little bit longer. No, you can get a 60 on Broswell. 60 on FanDuel.

So these are longer down the boards. Defensive player of the year splashes that I think are both viable options. So a little bit spicy. Yeah. Now that's also to a junior Colson. It's not just the Harbaugh connection. Their defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, was also at Michigan.

And I would assume that those two will be making 99% of the decisions in terms of playing time. So, you know, they're just going to throw them in there. And, uh, I have a feeling that some of your early tackle props, we're going to get some nice value in week one and two on a guy like, uh,

junior Colson there early in the season. Yeah. Five and a half when a play 80% of the snaps and yeah, we're cooking. Yeah, no, it's going to be great. I'll,

I'm very much looking forward to that. And then the Braswell stuff, I'm going to probably just sprinkle a little bit on both of those. Cause I think those are both fun plays, you know, multiple outs. It's's kind of i think they're good looks yeah yeah it's no fun to shoot at the top of the board in these markets too there's so much variance like there's yeah look i mean you look at dallas turner like there's minnesota like spent money on other guys at defensive end like it's not like dallas turner's not gonna play but like

dallas turner very much could be a situational edge rusher. And if he doesn't convert to sacks, he's just not going to be on the field enough to make a massive impact. And he's short of five to one. It's just a kind of a tough mix. Same thing. You know, I love Latulatu,

but he's in kind of a mix of, of other guys there in terms of playing time. Like, you know, he's going to be with Quiddy Pay, Simpson and Bucon had a nice year. Like they have some other guys. So I like going down the board here, Broswell and Colson for sure. And again, north of 50 good prices. Yeah, no, it's both fun looks there. So yeah, I'm going to be tailing those as well. All right. Your third one, you got,

this one is probably going to get an eye roll from you, but I'm sticking in the player situation here. It's by far my longest odds. Um, but just hear me out. So I'm going to go with Najee Harris to lead the league in rushing yards. Okay. Spicy, spicy to one at Caesars 50 to one at FanDuel.

So last three years, he has 1035, 1034, 1200 rushing yards in three seasons in the NFL. He gets Arthur Smith. They load it up on the offensive line. They're going to run the ball an unbelievable amount. Last year, the winner, CMC, had like 1,459. Next closest was 1,122.

These workhorse backs don't really exist anymore there's jonathan taylor obviously who i think is gonna have a great year but has not been a statue of health cmc i they've talked every year been like i don't know if we want to give him 20 carries they've just been still give him 20 carries anyway that eventually it's just not going to work out like he is going to be squarely in the mix no matter what like that is that's the thing barring like an outrageous season from derrick henry or cmc or jonathan taylor he is going to be squarely in the mix no matter what. Like that is, that's the thing of barring like an outrageous season from Derek Henry or CMC or Jonathan Taylor. He is going to be squarely in the mix with 1100 to like 1400 rushing yards. And it's 60 to one.

I mean like the volume is going to be there. He's going to get 300 carries this year, 275 to 325 carries. If he ends that up top end and the sealers online is actually good this year. I mean, they've been terrible the last few years. I mean,

who says he can't be reasonably efficient, you know, little over four yards per carry is totally fine. And again, all you're asked for is to be in the mix, like 60 to one. It should probably be closer to like 25 one, given his workload.

So again, it's a long shot. It's a hot take. There are definitely better options, you know, on paper, but given the price, I think it's a lot of fun are definitely better options you know on paper but given the price i think it's a lot of fun um the only fun thing about naji harris but i think it'll be a lot

of fun it's a bold prediction show right you weren't supposed to go what do you think about this because i think also part of the path is like his teammate what if jaylen warren goes down right then you're then you're cooking with gas. Oh yeah. And you know, Jeff makes a point in the chat here. Najee ain't even going to leave his own team in rushing yards. And I understand that take.

Why not hedge? Why not have both? Why not fire a little bit? Like what's Jalen's price? Cause if Najee goes down. It's higher than Jalen's. It's 50. Yeah.

That's what that's. I don't understand that. So my thing was the reason I took Najee, I think Jalen Warren's a good player. The reason I took Najee is like last year I was betting a lot on these like Jalen Warren, Najee Harris props. And apparently, so Mike Tomlin basically has gone on record and said like, yeah, like Najee is our guy late in games, like to wind away games, like in between the tackles, like it's just going to be like Najee's our guy. Like, and that's Tomlin making the calls. I know that they replaced

our offensive coordinator, which I think people are attributing to like, oh, why wasn't Jalen Ward getting more touches? He's offensive coordinator. I don't think that's it. I think it was legit Mike Tomlin just being like, Najee's our guy, you know, like he's our one forever. And then he's going to be the guy at the end of games, like running the ball as many times as possible and like kind of salting away the game. So if we put it that way, like I don't think the offensive coordinator changes,

like just a massive bonus for Najee and not the other way around, which is what some people are looking at with Jalen Warren, because I like Jalen Warren. He's a good player, but they just don't seem to want to use him like a ton of time. But if Najee went down, like, what does that look like?

I don't, you know, I don't know. Like who else would get touches, right? Like it would just have to be c-pat yeah yeah we're going to pass into they they did bring in c-pat i mean i don't think he's in the mix without one or two guys yeah yeah yeah i don't hate it i don't hate it at all i mean look at you can see another narrative piece of it is like right they didn't extend his option, right? Like he's in the last year of his rookie deal.

I mean, just be like, hey, look, this dude's not coming back. Let's just bang out as many, take all the wear off the tires that's left and just kind of ride them a little bit behind our big offensive line and just kind of make it happen. Yeah, it's a good price. I don't think it's flawed i think you do a good job pointing out like the thresholds actually be in the mix it's relatively low right this is this is not 2004 you know where it's like you just had multiple guys running for

1600 plus and just you know guys pushing 2k it's just not where we're at nowadays so between you know just work sharing and all that different stuff so So, yeah, I almost went with the Pittsburgh one too. I thought that I was going to go with Justin Fields does not make a start this season. Not because I think he's – I just think that there's – Russ is going to get the job out of the gate. And they have a kind of a – the schedule is hard, but like it's a little soft to open.

I just think that's a little bit of leeway that Russ can build out and just grab a hold of that job and keep it. So, yeah, I would think that's a little bit of leeway that Russ can build out. Just grab ahold of that job and keep it. So yeah. The more I dig into that offense, like the more it's just going to be like run, run moonshot pass from Russ Wilson. And I do George Pickens is like a perfect fit for like those moon balls and like just getting open.

I don't know. I've like, I'm becoming more and more bullish on the George Pickens and stuff too. Generally. I think that he could have a big more and more bullish on the George Pickens and stuff too generally. I think that he could have a big year, not in a ton of volume, but he lost Deontay Johnson and they just have a bunch of Jags wide receiver too and he was already kind of out earning targets at the end of the year over Deontay anyway.

So I mean, he could have a massive year. I don't know if the upside is really, because I don't think there's enough volume really to lead the league or anything like that, you know he 1100 yards last year which is crazy to say like could he you know do 1300 i mean i don't know it's in the mix um jeff real quick jeff added um spears so the titans might be a better option i think this is just like a egregious take um i think ty j spears is like, he's not going to sniff 1,000 rushing yards. I think Tony

Pollard will probably be the 1A. He'll be the 1B. They'll both catch a ton of passes. They're going to pass the ball a ton. Their whole line is still not very good. I mean, it's just hard no for me. Sorry, Jeff. Yeah. Yeah. No, I like it. It's definitely spicy when I first heard

it, but I think you did a good, you did a good job presenting your case. So a presentation, you get an a, maybe it's a, maybe a C plus B minus pick, but I think the presentation was solid. That's fair. We could have converted people. Uh, so I, I also, this is another one. I tried to not do this because I don't, I am a little bit of a, of a hater of this team

and I don't want to like have that be uh you know try not to have any biases but i just every year i kind of find there to be uh i feel like this team is a little bit overrated and i want to find ways to go against them and um i'm not really buying the ravens i'm a little bit i'm a little bit off the ravens and i think that the mike mcdonald thing is a big deal i think the mike mcdonald being gone the Ravens. I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit off the Ravens. And I think that the Mike McDonald thing is a big deal. I think the Mike McDonald being gone now, they,

you know, obviously stayed in house and promoted within. So there should be some continuity there on the defensive side. I think they lost some talent that I think is impactful there too. And you just kind of look at the roster. It's, it's solid, but I don't think that it's like oh this is a clear threat to be the number one seed again um i don't know and i know that's probably gonna hot take

it's it's it's a team that's just kind of constantly in the mix banking against the defending mvp uh obviously they spent you know a splash of agency by bringing in Derrick Henry. But the offensive line has struggled to stay healthy. Some underperformers in there as well. The secondary receivers, now again, Zay Flowers I think is solid. If Mark Andrews can stay healthy, it's solid. It's just a bunch of just jacks. They'll be able to run the ball, but I don't know.

I'm worried again about the defensive backfield, the depth behind, some guys that don't stay in the field and brandon stevens is is solid uh marlon humphrey not as good as his name uh as people think he is he's also struggled to stay on the field and look for whatever you want to make of like jadavion clowny he was good for them last year and he's gone and they didn't do anything to replace him it's all in-house guys they've just moved up the pecking order like their premier edge rusher is kyle van noy who again i made like it's not a joke kyle van noy was doing spots on pat mcafee in september last year um like in studio like and then they pulled him off and like he started being now he's their lead edge rushers. So I don't know. I think that they're closer to the other teams in the division. You know that I'm a pro Bengals guy.

When you borrow healthy, I think he is a talent elevator. I think that Cleveland defense is really solid. I like some of the other moves that they made there. Schedule's a little bit easier comparatively too. So there's a few ways to go about it. I just don't love the price to miss the playoffs at plus 250 i would want more for that um there's a couple ways to go about it you can bet again mgm has this third place in the north uh at plus 350 even better is draft kings has a bangles browns first and second in the division exacta at 9-1.

So theoretically, this could be a three-team playoff division. The Ravens could make the playoffs, but they could be the third team that kind of come back there in there. So 9-1 for basically the ravens to be the third place team in the division behind the browns behind the division winner bangles um look i i get the kyle van oyslander jeff uh former patriot i i get it um but again like that was a while ago man and uh like like is this a premier like this is your top edge rusher for the one of the top two seats for the in the afc like i'm just not feeling it so i'm down on the ravens uh you know just a

lot of pressure on lamar to be a talent elevator in terms of a pocket passer and i think he can do it but in terms of like really like leading this team to the next level behind just a bunch of jags i think a wide receiver. So down on the Ravens, Connor, I know it's spicy. It is. I don't know.

I mean, it's, it's kind of tough because I think you brought up some great points and their schedule opens up. Like, I mean, it's brutal chiefs Raiders week two is like the only reprieve. And then it's like at the Cowboys at home against the bills, then on the road against

the Rape or the Bengals I mean that's a very difficult five I mean it's for the best teams in the NFL in the first five weeks like you know I mean that's yep that's I didn't they will have to play their absolute best to win all of those games and if there's any talent drop off anything issues with the defense puts a lot of stress on Lamar who I mean we know at this point like it's just not at his best when he's playing like a pass heavy game script it's just it's just not no having to come from behind none of that they still just don't they don't do that well at all they don't yeah it's just it's just not his thing so I don't know there are some interesting um bets here of like who will have the most wins on draft Kings too. So after the first five weeks,

Chiefs, Ravens, or tie, um, we're looking at Chiefs is only minus one 35. Um, I mean, the Ravens might win like two games in that first five weeks. Like it might be two and three, um, three wins would be a massive win three and two there. Uh, I don't know. That's kind of an interesting one. And then, um, um i like yours though the derivative long shot there and you can take them under nine and a half wins is plus 280 um so i think eight or nine wins is like again not a terrible season they just they usually play a lot of shitty teams like two they start the season hot and they get the commanders bucks broncos um you know. There's some bad Giants. Giants are in there, yeah.

There's some just straight gimmies. You're just giving them four or five wins to start the season, basically. Yeah. That's the thing. That's why I like the derivative for a couple of reasons because it doesn't box them out of being a playoff team. They can still be a playoff team in that scenario. They're just the third team in the division.

They still can get them in even if they're at nine wins depending because the afc is gonna be tough we know it's gonna be tough so yeah i just i have some concerns with the wide receiver room i have concerns with the offensive line it's not ronnie stanley's not been a pitcher of health he's been good when he's on the fields but he's just he's had trouble the interior of the offensive line is kind of just okay they need uh probably starting a rookie at right tackle. What if something happens and Derrick Henry goes down? Like it's, you know, Kenton Mitchell's already come, you know, going to be slow to start the season.

He got hurt late in the year. It's going to be a lot of Justice Hill. Like, and that's kind of your bread and butter is to run the football because behind Zay Jones or Zay Flowers, you know, it's obviously Mark Andrews, Isaiah likely solid, so you still have a solid group there. But Aguilar, Bateman, it's just kind of a meh group. And part of it last year, I think Mike McDonald was able to really do a great job just manufacturing pressure.

He's going to have to do it again. Patrick Queen is gone. So Trenton Simpson barely saw the field last year. Now he's going to be playing every snap. Not a lot of depth behind him. what if roquan goes down roquan is is a massive massive piece he's a super important piece for them this year if they they lose him and marcus williams couldn't stay on the field last year so just there's a there's some a couple of key players that are really really contingent on the success of the ravens and if something happens they are like i feel pretty good about this one. All right. I got a, I got a good bet. I've been

dishing up here. So it's first five weeks Bengals to have more wins than the Ravens minus one 15, only on draft Kings, the Bengals first five games they have at home against the Patriots at home against the commanders on the road against the Panthers. And then the other two games are Chiefs, which obviously, you know, that's fine. That's one game. And then at home against the Ravens. So, like, I mean, you're talking about three wins. I mean, they're favored by seven plus in the first three games or whatever.

Like, at least in the two home games and Panthers, I don't know. We'll see. It's probably around seven. The Ravens are probably short favorites in that game at home. i don't know we'll see it's probably around seven the ravens are probably are short favorites in that that game at home um i don't know i think that's an interesting one there in draft kings because minus 115 to have again the ravens are probably gonna have two to three wins the bangles have three plus wins like almost automatically look the chiefs have to lose some games they're not going to go undefeated and who's played them pretty well the bangles have played them pretty well uh since

so uh yeah if you i looked at that too because i was looking at i did the opposite of the teams to start on five there's a market for that there's teams to start five and oh i got kind of hung up on that that game for the bangles but bangles are i think seven to one to start five and oh two as an alternative to that so yeah i mean i'm a pro bangles guy this year i think their defense is going to be really good on a burrow. Cause they have a feeling that they're going to be an exciting team. So yeah, sorry.

I mean, I feel like I had probably a bold prediction or a hot take last year. That was also anti Ravens. And that's just, I don't know. I feel like it's thin there. There are a couple of things that can happen to make it go away. So it took,

I mean, it took Mike McDonald just like being, you know, one of the best coaches in the league. So yeah, it's a huge, I mean, right. He's a huge part of your handicap for your first play and now he's gone. Yeah. Right. From, from this side of it. So I think you have to look at it both ways. All right. Bring us home.

What's your last one? Yeah, this is one. I think you agree with Jets are winning the Superbowl. 20 to one 12 to one to win the AFC. Yeah, Jets are winning the Super Bowl. I mean, if Aaron Rodgers can stay upright, this defense is fantastic. They added Mike Williams, so it's not just Garrett Wilson and a bunch of, you know, Rodgers cronies from, you know, the rest of his time. Like, they have actually legitimate talent.

They drafted Malachi Corley as well to be kind of like a piece. Brees Hall is healthy. Who's when healthy again, one of the most electric running backs in the league. Like they have everything. Their offensive line is a little bit better. Like it's, it's one of those things where they're just keep adding talent and more and more talent. And so I'm, I'm interested in them.

They revamped the entire offensive line. So again, it's like they just have everything and like we're that's not being priced as that like everyone's so scared because like oh rogers towards the killers on the first play or he's old or he's doing ayahuasca or whatever like all very you know real reasons of not to like a team specifically but if those aren't concerns if rogers can stay healthy like this team is a very legitimate contender. And they're currently my Super Bowl pick. I was going to go with the win AFC.

But at this point, like, I mean, if they're going to win AFC, like they're just go for the win Super Bowl. Yeah, you're through the Chiefs. And that's really kind of it, right? It's like, yeah, that point you might as well go all the way. Yeah, I mean, I think they win the AFC East. I think they're the best team in that division. It's definitely the best roster.

You were obviously banking a lot on an older quarterback that, you know, fair to ask some questions and concerns, but also the roster is really, really solid. So I don't hate it. I'm also in the mindset right now of like it's, you know, my brain's always in golf at this time of year.'s like going against my homes it's almost like why am i gonna mess around against patty you know against scotty scheffler it's like i'm just trying to find ways to get really fancy when it's like oh the scheffler's in the tournament like all right like

until something happens with patrick my homes we saw last year i mean i i think that niners team was significantly better you know tip to tails than than the chiefs were but it just didn't really matter in the ends uh he got the ball back with a couple minutes left and uh he was able to take them down and do his thing so i'm going to be on probably the chiefs to win the super bowl but i i think the jets are going to be a threat uh this year as long as they can stay healthy at the key spots. The one in that area that I think is an interesting kind of other way to play it, Sauce is 60-1 to win Defensive Player of the Year. Interesting. That's long.

And again, it's another, like, edge rushers, sacks are sexy. You look at the top of the board in terms of Defensive Player of the Year, it's, you know, it's TJ Watts, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa bosa it's miles garrett's the guys that you think are you know hutchinson is up there uh now based off of what we expect detroit to be um you know should be max crosby unfortunately the raiders are not good enough and that kind of rules them out but you're a couple of interceptions they're the best defense in the league and uh your jets go you know 13 and four they're the number one scene the afc sauce is interesting at 60 at one that gets significantly shorter uh as we kind of approach december in award season there so yeah i'm with you as as much as it hates me this is

again the evolution of fandom because i hate the jets um you know that i think they're just it's a really good team so hard i mean i'm proud of you five years ago there's no way you would have been able to even agree with me you just been like fuck that drake may you know like and can't do it can't do it no i think it's uh it gets the roster's good man um yeah we're a little bit removed like two mvps for rogers in the last handful of years i don't think he's like falling off a cliff. You know, I think he's smart enough to learn how to be efficient and figure it out. So, yeah, I like it.

Spicy though, for sure. He doesn't need to even be that good. That's the thing. Like they won seven games last two years with literally the worst quarterback play in the league. Some of the worst offensive line play in the league. Like just downright trash surroundings. Like no wide receiver depth.

Like, you know, they got better in every single area significantly. So I don't know. I like it. All right, good stuff. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us today. Those are the start of our bowl. I'm sure we'll have some more bowl takes, maybe another section of our show as we approach actual kickoff to week one

here as the season quickly approaches. So subscribe here to the 444Bets YouTube channel. Stay with us for leading up to the season. Obviously, you're going to want to hang with us during the season. We'll have our Move the Line game preview show in season. We'll have Prop Drop on Friday. As always, great time handing out prop winners there as well. Again, we continue to be here every week leading up to the season.

So get the betting sub, 444.com slash plans. Again, betting sub gets you access to everything that we do. And that's really where you want to be if you are betting with us this season. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks, everyone.