Move The Line - Early Week 1 NFL Bets

Episode Date: June 28, 2024

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hello and welcome to move the line presented by four for four bets brian noonan here as always my friend connor allen uh we are what connor's like 70 something days almost like 10 weeks and change or so from week one of the nfl season and it's like fast approaching we're still in june but like his stuff sneaks up on us real quick. Really excited to start to maybe look into what's going on in week one. These odds have been up for a little bit here. We're going to touch on some of our favorite plays that are on the board as this market kind of sharpens and gets tighter here

as we approach week one. Buddy, what's going on? Yeah, not much. I'm excited. There's a couple of looks that I liked early on and there's a couple of spots here where teams that I'm looking to fade are playing teams that I'm looking to be a little bit higher on the market. So, yeah, I don't know. I like to sprinkle a little bit out because I think that some of these lines will move closer to the season, too, especially once you get a little bit of preseason hype, a little bit more understanding. But I think we have a pretty good grasp at this point, like who these teams are for the most part at least heading into the season honestly most of the preseason stuff is like fantasy player prop kind of usage based stuff

not really as much like holistically from a team perspective so yeah i think we should have a couple of good nuggets and as you guys can see anyone watching on youtube i'm once again not home i'm in detroit for the second time uh this year i've never been in detroit in my life now gone twice in one year um so yeah get to watch some golf the rocket mortgage and you know hopefully punt some money away betting that's a lot of bed behind you like that's no it's true it's it's too bad okay oh okay i'm like that is a that's it seems larger than a king right i mean like that's a lot of bed man it's the drafting special that's what they give you for the the qualifiers they give me a little goodie bag like i qualified and everything so i got a nice

gift card and all this stuff to the shop i mean this is like i'm being treated like royalty just because i have a friend who's way better dfs than i am okay it's nepotism takes shape in different forms and uh i guess this is a you know a proximity of that so good for you who cares right swag is swag and you know it's good to have it's good to have smart friends um you don't even play dfs really right so you're not qualified you're not qualifying for anything you've never entered a dfs qualifier i uh i did enter some draft kings contest this week um just for fun just because i was like oh maybe i'll have a sweat that's the spot where yeah yeah i use the betsbert's golf uh like ron's some of his like stuff uh the dfs stuff i got a couple

items that are okay i think i'm like i mean i might cash a couple lineups that's like but i i i think i'm only sitting at like four out of six they're gonna make the cut probably so it's not i don't know i'm not alive to win anything real but maybe you know maybe at least maybe make my money back. Yeah, I didn't help you there. The guys I gave you this week have not gone so well today. So we'll see what happens there. Maybe we get some bounce backs and make the cut here and pound some birdies. But if you want to get all of the stuff that we have going on over at 444,

you need to get the betting subscription. It's NHL Draft Nights. So our Discord is kind of popping right now with NHL draft plays from our guy Vegas refunds. I definitely want to get more information here in the show notes. You want to get a subscription again, the betting subscription of four for four gets you access to everything that we do.

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Check that out. More information there in the show notes. So, Conrad, I can give you floors yours. Week one, obviously, you know, these have been out for a little bit now. They get sharpened. You know, there's some, I would say, what probably would have been my favorite play in week one is, you know, gone now, and that's kind of what happens here

as these kind of get sharpened but you know we do have some totals insides here available i want to give me your uh first preferred bet here that we have currently going on nfl week one yeah we'll go through three of these um but i'll start with my first one here so my first one i'm going to go with is going to be the Chargers minus three, minus 120 at DraftKings. I would honestly still play the three and a half against the Raiders in week one. Chargers at home. And again, like I think right off the top of the show,

I talked about two teams that I want to be a little bit at market, a little bit higher than the Chargers. I want to be fading the Raiders as much as possible. I think this is a great spot to do so. If we look at how these teams kind of match up stylistically, we have a Raiders team that has an incredibly weak offensive line. Their quarterback play is a question mark. Their secondary is a question mark.

Their head coach and offensive coordinator, I think, is a massive question mark. They have some really good pieces. They have good weapons, they have wide receivers, they have some good edge players. But when you look at what the Chargers want to do, it's going to be bringing the ball down their throats. I think they'll have success with their upgraded offensive line in the running game.

Now, the passing game, I mean, again, the Raiders should be able to put a little pressure on them. I just don't know how much they're going to pass. And that's the thing is with them taking a run-heavy approach and really kind of, I think, playing a little bit of bully ball, that changes the whole pass rush dynamic a little bit there too instead of the Chargers dropping back like 40, 50 times. So I like the offensive matchup of the Chargers. And on the other side here i can't say that i love the chargers defense but i do think that the raiders offense is i am just could not be lower on them despite having brock bowers jacoby myers davante adams i have zero faith in luke gets his ability

to scheme up an offense especially given the quarterback play and offensive line play um i think the floor is extremely low for them so i the Chargers win by at least three and up to a touchdown if I play some alts on it as well? Yeah, I think just based off of some of our preliminary discussions, I think you're a little higher on the Chargers than I am. For sure. I think as we look in terms of buying team stock, obviously it's hard to argue against Jim Harbaugh's just history of winning,

just taking a team to a winning record pretty quickly everywhere he's been. I just have some concerns about the roster holes that need to be filled and how that's going to relate. But again, I don't think this is a bad spot too because I'm kind of with you on the Raiders being a team that you want to look for different opportunities to kind of shorten fire against. So yeah yeah don't hate that one at all um it part of it for the Chargers big picture wise is the schedule it's really really soft right so uh week to week it doesn't matter as much but if you're looking to short them on the whole that's a little tougher

to swallow because again they're just they're running into a fairly soft schedule so uh for me my first play that I want to highlight here uh i'm the more and more again i think there's a lot of really good football teams in the nfc uh or in terms of like viable like top tier candidates this lions roster is really good um and like it looks like golf's gonna get a lot of like home games late in season. Just a lot of things that is going their way. I liked them in week one at home against the Rams. I think this line here at three and a half, pretty readily available, three and a half minus 105 on FanDuel,

is making some pretty massive assumptions on who the Rams, especially defensively, are. And I have some concerns about that. And losing some pretty dynamic pieces, both on the sideline and on the field, right? You know, I think Raheem Morris, I've talked about how I think he coached his balls off last year, getting that defense to be even middle of the pack because it was basically Aaron Donald

and a bunch of just day three undrafted free agents. And I think he did a fantastic job getting them to be competitive. And then Matthew Stafford stayed upright, performed well. That team definitely exceeded expectations. Now, Morris is the coach in Atlanta. And we're going to get first-time defensive coordinator there. And Aaron Donald is retired. Aaron Donald is such a force multiplier,

and what he was able to do for Kobe Turner as a rookie and some of those other defensive ends that had decent seasons, I think that's very different in terms of how an offensive line has to scheme against you with Aaron Donald in the lineup versus not in the lineup. So they just haven't done anything that really makes me think that that's a unit that's going to sustain what they did last year or really take a step forward.

And I think the offense is probably fine, but this Lions team I think has made just a really good last year. They just absolutely shit down their leg in the second half of the NFC Championship game. They probably should have been in the Super Bowl, but this roster is drastically improved. I think the defenseC championship game. They probably should have been in the Superbowl, but this roster is drastically improved. I think the defense is really strong. You know, the offensive weapons, like who becomes wide receiver two there is I think definitely an interesting discussion of

what happens in the next 70 days or so, but they use Sam Laporta so much at tight ends. And he's such a mismatch that he's essentially the wide receiver too. I think you see more out of that backfield here. It's just here I'm big on the Lions this year And I just want to find ways to get in on them And 3.5 feels a little short Obviously the hook can scare some people off But I think there's more of a gap between these two teams Than what is currently out there

Especially at minus 105 there What are your thoughts on the Lions or the Rams in general Or this game? Yeah, that's interesting I think I would I mean, my initial lean would be I like your handicap of their offense versus the Rams defense lions or the rams in general or this game yeah that's interesting i think i would i mean my initial lean would be i like your handicap of like their offense first uh rams defense because i think that's a pretty massive edge um i would wonder like what the team total is going to come

in at i mean it's going to be high though because the total is high right it's like yeah 51 and a half yeah 51 and a half so you're probably looking at like 27 already so yeah maybe the better way to play it is three and a half because i do think that the Lions are very live here to put up 30 plus, you know, against this Rams defense here. Because again, this Lions offense here when, you know, fully healthy is just very good. And especially with Jameson Williams, I think taking in a little bit bigger of a role too. Like they just have, the ceiling is just massive here. And Jameer Gibbs on the stretch took on a bigger role than David Montgomery too.

So like kind of getting that all going together, I just don't think can be understated there. And the defense got better, like you mentioned. So yeah, I think that that's probably a pretty good look there, even at three and a half. Yeah, if we stay three and a half, 51 and a half, which is what FanDuel has, although there are some 51s out there too, DraftKings, Caesars, Rivers.

FanDuel is actually a little off market at 51 and a half, but even at 51, you're at 27 for a team total. Right. So, you know, we're not getting that 26 and a half that we would probably like to see there to get the key numbers and get on the right side of it. So yeah,

you know, again, we have 70 days to see where this market evolves. And, you know, I think the Rams have been continuing to be kind of a, I don't know if I say a sexy team, but obviously they have some weapons and I think Stafford gets a lot of pub

and should deservedly. So he's played some really good football, went healthy over the last, you know, his entire career really. So yeah, just I'm bullish on the lions and I want to find ways to get in on it early.

So what do you got? What's a number two for you? Yeah, we'll go to a total this time. I'm going to go with the bears and Titans over 43 and a half total points. This is something that I think there's two teams that like the market just isn't really factoring in a lot of the offensive changes here. So I do think that the Bears defense here played a lot better in the second half of the season. But if you look at the schedule, although like one or

two games was against like really, really bad teams or like backup quarterbacks. And so obviously they got Montez Sweat midseason. But I think that some of their numbers we saw, which was, you know, basically virtually like borderline top five numbers across the board, were probably a little inflated. Like I don't think that they are a top five defense. I think that they're probably in that, you know, maybe eight to 12 range somewhere around there. And so now you're getting them matching up against the Titans offense

that they got. They have Brian Callahan over from the Bengals, one of the higher pass rates there, and they've talked about nonstop, like, hey, we want to pass the ball. What do they do? They go out and sign Calverley to an absurd contract. They sign Tyler Boyd as well to play the slot. There are rumors that they're considering taking Malik Nabors

if he fell to them in the draft. And then they have two pass-catching running backs. Instead, you know, a goner, the days of Derek Henry handing the ball off. They have Tony Pollard as well. So it's like one of those things where I expect them to shift massively pass-heavy, which I think does impact the game a little bit in terms of, like, you know, totals and what we see in terms of total volume there. So I like them to pass the ball a lot this game, and obviously on the Bears' side,

Caleb Williams, Roman Dunza, Keenan Allen, behind an offensive line that I think is a little bit better than what's given credit for, given how bad Justin Fields made it look. So I'm excited. I think 43.5 points is going to be too low when it's all said and done and that this game could be like a sneaky week one shootout if there's any merit to Will Levis and what we saw in the one game last year and if Caleb Williams is that advertised, which I know,

it sounds ridiculous, one game. But, I mean, again, he's's running Nick Westbrook at Keeney like I mean is that guy even like a fourth receiver on most teams like he shouldn't be playing so um but yeah we'll see we'll see I mean I like the over there yeah I mean he's you know number two in the pats if he's a receiver in that roster so yeah i mean i'm with you i when you saw this you sent it to me just before we get started and i really like the look too uh you know 43 and a half still out there there's just there's i think you know the market's a little bit there's some trepidation in terms of what are the bears and what's that look like and are they able to

hit the ground running in week one and then obviously it's a transition from what we've experienced with tennessee over the last handful of years too, and obviously shifting new coaching staff. And as you said, new roster, essentially offensively. So definitely new looks there and what we can expect. So yeah, I think that that's a really good look. I'm going to stay with the total as well for my second one. I'm going to go under with New England in Cincinnati at 43 on DraftKings. This is the best, I think, in the market too, some 42.5s, some 42s.

So although it doesn't necessarily matter in terms of key numbers there, 44 typically in that range is more of a key number. But look, I mean, yeah, we're going back to like your fandom days. I'm a Patriots fan, right? So that's my squad. But I also care way more about my tickets and my money at the end of the day. And you can't sugarcoat it. You can't find a really easy way to be super optimistic about this New England roster, especially offensively, especially in week one.

It seems very likely this is a Jacoby Myers start. I'm sorry,acoby reset start um i probably wish it was a jacoby myers start um but yeah i mean it's just not going to go well early for new england and you can make the case that like brissette starting over may and week one is probably better for new england and i could buy that too i still don't think that regardless of who's starting offensively at quarterback, that they have the surrounding cast to get it done. It's a poor offensive line, still remains a poor wide receiver group. And I'm bullish on the Bengals this year.

I think that they've made some improvements. The defense has more upside than people expect or are anticipating. And yeah, I mean, I just think it's a spot where, look, I mean, looking at trying to find team totals too new england's probably going to be 16 and a half or 17 so we would love to have a 17 and a half under on new england here i don't think we're going to get that especially as team like books have started to adjust to like they're not necessarily just going off of the lines they're like setting they're kind of working around key numbers i think a little

smarter than they used to so i think that's not going to pop his way up. And look, I mean, this could be a 27-14 game. We see some of that upside of the Bengals offense, and it still goes under because New England just can't carry their water there. So thoughts on Pat's Bengals. Yeah, but New England's defense is not like that bad. I mean, they're – Yeah, and that's why I think under again,

that's why you might not see a ceiling outcome for the, from the bangles, right? Like Judon back, Christian Gonzalez back, like, you know, they can hold them to 21, 24 points for sure. Yeah. I don't know. I think that that's, uh, I think I like it. I think it's kind of a fun look. I mean, well, not fun, but I think it's a winning look, you know, that's, I think what

matters and, you know, I'm, I'm team under, so I, you don't have to convince me too hard to play an under on a team, especially a Patriots team that I think has just a lot of issues. I just don't know, like, how are they going to move the ball against, like, functional offenses? Like, I mean, they didn't last year. So, I mean, Brissette I think is probably a minor upgrade. But, I mean, it's pretty ugly. I guess they have a real offensive coordinator in place, like, you know.

Sure, who, like, has rarely ever called plays and has never like i don't know i again you're hoping like by osmosis that he learned from you know good play callers he's been all over the place but again like talent at the end of the day wins right you gotta line up beat the dude in front of you and i just don't know how they keep reset clean there's a nice pass rush on the other side. There's a lot of young talent in the secondary for Cincinnati. And to your point too, the other part of the handicap is New England's defense is going to be okay. That's going to be their only calling card to keep them in games is that they can try to keep teams into the low 20s and hope that they have some sort of miraculous upside. They can convert into defensive touchdowns at a higher rate than

league average something like that like that's kind of new that's new england's path this year and uh i don't see that with uh with burrow coming back and uh probably you know have his way with them a little bit so yeah i was about to say i have another question when do you think we see drake may have you thought about this at all because i i'm trying to find a spot in this schedule because there are some drake may props out. It's like 2,400 yards. And if he plays 10 games, he's going way under that. You know, it's 240 yards a game.

No way he's reaching. If he plays like 14 games, it's going to be really close. So have you thought about like a point in the schedule or how many games you think he plays? Yeah, I think we see him sooner than later, right? Because it's going to be one of these things that's like, all right, look, we're losing anyway. Get the kid out there, right?

Like get the reps. Like what is he learning taking his lumps on the sideline and i just think that becomes really hard in the media to kind of withstand that pressure your first time head coach you know like belichick's gonna go in and go hey i have a I have like a process. This is what we're doing. He's not going to be impacted by the media. Gerard Mayo, first time at coach, you might have a plan, but could be maybe a little bit more impacted by having to answer the same question over and over again. So, and it's a tough start, right? Cincinnati, Seattle, the jets and the Niners and the dolphins and the Texans. Like that is a miraculous, like what is New England to go 0-5 to start? Like I know that's a bet you can make. There is a thing.

Yeah, it's like a five-week sprint that DraftKings offers. Your drive for week five, or yeah, record after five games. Let's see here, New England. I mean, you're probably just getting better odds, like I'm sure, rolling up. For sure, for sure. Zero wins is only plus 350. I mean –

Murderer's row to start. Yeah, like they're either going to have zero or one win. I mean, that's like – Like, that's my issue is like they're one and four probably. You know, I mean, best case, one and five starting in that schedule. Like, at that point, it seems like we probably see Drake May may somewhere in there but if they go on four because their closest game all season is week two against seattle you know projected wise and so at home against the seattle team that i kind of like i think it's kind of fun so the two like if they start on four like

that's i would assume when the drake may call start so i don't know i don't think he's gonna have a ton of success when he gets there, but he's an unknown. So I almost like hate betting against like that kind of stuff, especially for a player who, I don't know. I think he's kind of unique. Like I think he's, he's just like a, has a high upside, you know, lower low floor type of player, which could be really bad.

I mean, the Patriots could not win a game all year. So who knows? I think you started through the like latest we see him as week five at home against Miami, right? Like if you decide like they start Oh, and2, they lose that Seattle game to your point. Seattle, West Coast, East, early start. I'm kind of with you on Seattle. I think there's some upside there too.

Then you go on the road back-to-back and two of the best defenses in the league. You're on the road against the Jets. You're on the road against the Niners. You just don't start Drake May in those spots, I don't think you wait, let's get them at home in the division, Miami. Again, like, I think that's just a softer landing spot for him in terms of what he's going up against. I think that's the latest you see him. Uh, cause I just don't, I think one in three is the best case scenario for the start for the path. So yeah, I just, it's interesting. Cause obviously it's hard to, you know, it's hard to kind of look at and you look at projections from, from Mike Clay, he's got him starting 15

games. So he's got him coming in a week three and he's got him comfortably over 3,300 and change in terms of his passing yard, which is, you know, interesting thought. That is, that is an interesting there. Two quick things, DraftKings, you can bet on Jacoby Brissett to start week one. It's minus 260. I think that should be like minus 700. I mean, I played some of that at a local. I mean, I think that's, again, if you have some credit somewhere. I don't think we're sponsored by anyone right now.

So, yeah, it's perfect. You got some credit. I think it's a great way to tie up some credit for a couple of months because I see a very limited path to Drake May some credit for a couple months because i i see very limited path to drake may starting outside of a jacoby brissett injury in like preseason basically sure yeah um the only other one note that i had since you were talking about the jets i've you know i tweeted out like a divisional parlay of like you know all the division winners i like to do that for fun you know obviously again it's not like a huge plus ev thing but just a good time

you got close last year you had a beautiful i was live in the end of the year yep yeah um so that was cool i didn't win obviously but um the jets i i like the jets a lot and you mentioned them as one of the best defenses and i've gotten just non that's the the pick i've gotten the most hate about is people like texting me dming me like what like, what are you talking about with the Jets? Like Rogers is old. Like, I'm like, they have one of the best rosters in the league. You know, like I'm, I'm mad with them. So I don't know.

I mean, like, I wonder how the market values them like on a week to week basis. Cause I'm not sure I love them week one plus six. I don't know. Is this one of your bets or no? Is this? No. Okay. All right.

Well, we can talk about it then. So plus six, like week one against the Niners. I mean, I feel like that's kind of like the gross close your eyes play of the week. That's like just going to cash. I mean, they're going to lose by like maybe three. I think they're alive to win. I mean, I think they're just on, they're a really, really good team. I'm with you. I hate it, but I think it's good. I agree. I mean, the offensive line, it's questions massively last season, but i think they've done a good job addressing that and i feel like they have some depth there too if someone happens to go down um yeah i mean look rogers is a polarizing character the last year in green bay wasn't great but um we had bad years in green bay in the past and people thought he was done and then he comes out and runs back to back MVP season.

So I think that there there's just a, and I think there's more openness in terms of what's going on in the AFC East. And even there was last year, I think Miami is maybe sputtered and even take a step back. I think maybe defensively a little bit. And I think obviously the bills, I think are still a very good team. I mean, maybe it was less upside in terms of what that offense can be

without a Stephon Diggs. There's more questions there at the wide receiver position and pass catching group. So, yeah, I mean, there is a bit of an unknown. You're betting on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off of an Achilles injury, however close you think he actually was coming back last year, however he wanted us to believe he was. It seemed like he was at least active uh it was you know he wanted us to see him throwing on

the sideline or you know before games and doing stuff like that but he was yeah but he was right so uh yeah i'm i'm with you i think that there's again we get a full season from rogers the rest of the roster is really good and uh a defense I know defensively year over year is not super sticky and performances can wane and things like that, but they just have the dudes, right? There's continuity there. They're bringing back almost the entirety of that defense. They have a handful of rotational pass rushers,

so it's not like they're just relying on one or two dudes to really get it done. Sauce Gardner is that dude at corner where you can actually really do a ton of things. He allows you to be multiple. If you want to go play man heavy, lock someone down, like they,

they have the ability to do that great linebacker core. So yeah, I mean, it's really good team. I don't like them week one either. Cause I think the Niners are legit as well, but yeah, I mean,

look, they get maybe a little bit cheaper too, as the season kind of goes along and maybe they, you know, have a bad week one and then all of a sudden they get a little bit cheaper, you know, in still the rest of the September game. So I'm with you. We'll probably have some pro-Jets stuff, which is tough for me to swallow. But it's just the reality of where that team is.

Yeah, no, for sure. Brian Bray's a good point too. Weekly, Pat's team total under seemed like great leads early in the season. Totally agree. We just got with a good point, too. Weekly, Pat's team total unders seem like great leads early in the season. Totally agree. We just got to see what those numbers are. I mean, you know, we always talk about the 17. You know, maybe 17 is kind of like the key under. I mean, this might be one of the teams that's like a 14-and-a-half team.

I mean, that seems like it gets to a point where, you know, certain teams are just like going to score 10 to 13 points, and they're just toast. Those are the early Zach Wilson Jets years, right? Those like 14-and-a-half was fine it was it was fine if we can get that so obviously you'd prefer always you know bad team 17 and a half i think is just a nice a nice spot but i don't think we're gonna get it like i said obviously the pats right now 17 you're gonna see books post out at 16 and a half because they know what they're doing a little bit so um but yeah i mean

there are spots where it's almost like hey you can some books allow you to like customize it i think caesars lets you do that a little bit too um fanatics or points back in the past would allow you to do that if you can get down there where you can manipulate the line a little bit like i'm comfortable going to like pats at 17 and a half if i'm having to pay minus 125 or something like that like i really i don't mind it so uh all right the last one you, all right, the last one you got. Was that the last one you liked, the Jets there? No, I got one more. So my final one is kind of one that actually I just bet today.

So I bet the Browns. This is moving a little bit. I know another service released this as well before the show, but I like the Browns in week one against the Cowboys. I think they're like minus one at this point. They're at home. I think the defense is still really strong. They added Jerry Judy. They still have a top five offensive line. Sean Watson is still kind of unknown. I frankly don't think that he'll ever quote return to form. I think at this point, you're just hoping to get Compton quarterback play out of him, but I think that they have the infrastructure set up that they don't really

need that necessarily to still be a good team here. And then on the other side, we have a Dallas team that lost Tyler Biotis, Tyron Smith. Their running back group is Rico Dowdle and Zeke. It's just like this, I think a joke of a room to be honest at this point. And the receiving room and their passing group is very much fine, but I think it's kind of thin like it's cd lamb jake ferguson's fine and then it's like brandon cooks jaylen tolbert i mean it's just like a bunch of guys who don't really do it for me so i think that that is obviously key part two um so like just straight up at face value you know i think that the this browns team was probably going to be a bet for me anyways and then behind the scenes there's some rumblings that there could be some health issues with Dak as well so again those aren't verified there's not

you know for sure there but there's already a lean anyways and that kind of pushed me over the edge like hey maybe I should you know pop this real quick and um you know talk about it a little bit because I think it's it's worth a look regardless like even if Dak's 100% plays like it's great and if not then this line is going to be like minus six if treyland's plays i mean it's like a touchdown probably if yeah no for sure and that's it has moved a bunch today uh i had this earlier um and my notes before i saw that you had it too and then uh he was looking at it now it looks it looks a little different looks like there's a rogue um at bat rivers if you happen to have uh access to that book looks like they're the only ones still with Dallas as a short favorite and minus one.

So you can get actually plus one there or decent money line value on Cleveland in that spot. They're kind of the only ones that's still holding out on the, on that line. So yeah, I'm, I'm with you. I think,

you know, futures on the Browns make a ton of sense. I know that there are kind of a popular team, you know, eight and a half win total division, you know, is in play for some of those teams. And then you go, I think total uh division you know is in play uh for some of those teams and you know i think wide open division it's a good division so but i think it's

a good roster and you know again it's it comes down to what is the sean watson man is he what we saw last year it's just so wild to think of you know who he was as a quarterback in houston versus what we saw last year just a totally different dude so um it's almost like performance enhancing drugs on and off like those like rubbing tugs were his like he's like i don't know this is a steroids like he all of a sudden is not getting them and he just can't get it done i have no idea uh alleged rubbing tugs but like i mean alleged alleged yeah yeah um but i don't know man Like he was a different dude last year. So, all right.

I had a couple. The one that jumps out to me, I'm curious as an, you know, I get a little bit of hesitancy to fire on it because I look at a sharp book like, you know, Pinnacle being a little bit off. Domestically, this is available everywhere. Falcons are minus two and a half, minus 110 across the board against the Steelers at home in week one.

If the Falcons are who the market thinks they are, and part of that is obviously tied to the schedule and they play some easy teams, but I think the Falcons, everyone thinks it's an upgrade. Obviously with Kirk Cousins there at quarterback, they should be at least three at home against the Steelers who have a decent amount of questions.

I think we like what they did, and the roster's got some good pass to the future. The offensive line's obviously an upgrade. I think the defense is okay in the middle of the pack. Obviously, Tomlin can coach them up. Russ makes me nervous. It's going to be Russ, I feel like, in week one. You know, Russ makes me nervous. It's going to be Russ. I feel like in week one and we know they're going to be able to run the football,

but I think the Falcons be okay at stopping the run. I just feel like this should be at least three. If the Falcons are who the market thinks they are. So the fact that it's readily available at two and a half and there's actually two and a half plus one of four, you know, kind of edging to the Steelers over at pinnacle makes me a little hesitant. But again,

like, I don't know that I'm like all in on the Falcons, but I definitely think that the Steelers are maybe a little overrated. I think we're just getting some of that. Like Tomlin doesn't have a losing record kind of a thing built in there. And can they, you know, unpack some of that,

you know, previous rust stuff. And I don't know, the question marks for me in terms of the pass catching core in Pittsburgh. What do you think there? Yeah, this is going to be like one of those like new school versus old school matchups. Like this is very much what that is.

Whereas we're going to see the Falcons probably pass a lot, you know, the whole like new Zach Robinson kind of vibe of the offense and everything. Whereas, you know, Arthur Smith and the Steelers are going to play some old school football. I mean, again, I tend to want to pick the Falcons in that, like, because they have, you know, kind of the shiny weapons, they have the toys, they have, you know, like, I think the ability to keep up with any team, right? Like, I think that's kind of like, they're built so that they can do that. And especially if they get anything out of the defense, which I think still

has a lot of, you know, questions marks on it. But, you know, again, we have a talent, potentially talent maximizer, as you mentioned. But like, I just, I worry betting against, you know, in these games, like where I just think that the stylistic differences are going to be so, so drastic that, I mean, it just could be, if the Falcons are are not humming offensively it's going to be like a 17 13 win by the steelers and if they are then i mean the steelers can't keep up with the falcons i mean that's just like going to be the reality of it so i think it's like could go one way or the other and so for me it's a little bit of a stay away but if i had to pick it probably falcons at two and a half yeah no it's a good point um you know i just as soon as defense is good they're okay

like especially they stay healthy they're going to be good in week one i just have concerns especially if like they're going to see a lot of three receiver sets which has been kind of a staple of mcveigh and mcveigh disciples i think that's going to be a tough matchup for the steelers this season like they're also built i think to defend teams similar to how they play uh in terms of teams i want to spread them out and make them defend uh you know slot and over the middle of field i think that's going to be a little bit troublesome for them but we'll be interested to see how that that evolves over the course of the season it's just yeah i mean i feel like it should be at three i think um yeah maybe the

steelers if you're kind of bullish on the steelers they're probably a pretty attractive teaser leg if you can you know two and a half get them up to eight and a half and you'll find something else to pair them with uh maybe the colts at home against the texans or something like that but yeah i mean that's there's some there's some interesting ones out there but yeah that one's the last one that kind of jumped out to me the other one is i kind of opening night like part of this goes on to my ravens uh stuff a little bit like i like the chief two and a half at home uh on opening nights. But we'll see what that is. Right now it's minus 120. We'll kind of watch where that evolves. But I think that the Chiefs just got a little bit better.

I think the Ravens are a little bit worse. And, again, those are kind of toss-up games. Obviously, you've seen some wild stuff. Obviously, last year we wouldn't have thought that that would be a thing in week one with Detroit going in there and winning the ring ceremony stuff. So, yeah, interesting to see what's going on there and winning the ring ceremony stuff. So yeah, interesting to see what's going on there, but yeah,

it leaned on the, being on the chiefs a little bit, two and a half. So we'll see where that market evolves. All right, buddy. Anything else to the people before you go and take in Detroit? We got a NHL draft coming up.

I bet a little bit of Zeev William to go third overall. Okay. I don't know. You know, just use bet a little bit of zeve bullion to go third overall um okay i don't know um you know just uh he's going a little bit and some under seven and a half i think those are both some solid looks there so for anyone watching live or you know listening to this before the draft tees off i don't know the tease off what is it drop puck drops off i don't know whatever it would be for for hockey um I like those bets. And then Shurian Asav, whatever his Igor, this guy's not going to be drafted in the first round. So just take the

over. It's like 20.5, 21.5. I don't care. I laid the juice. Max bet hammered. That's my NHL draft play of the week. Okay. Love it. Love it. What's going on with you jumping in the river here, Lake Michigan?

Oh, Jeff's talking about – so basically he's saying that if the Lions beat the Bears by 35 in Chicago, I forgot that I responded to a tweet of his. Because, I mean, they play in Chicago in December, and I said if the Bears lose – he's like, oh, the Lions are going to win by 35. I was like, if the Lions beat the Bears by 35, I'll jump in Lake Michigan in December. So I forgot exactly what it was, but that was the premise of the bet. And I'm more than happy to do that because that's not going to happen. I mean, they're, first off, probably going to win.

I don't think Jared Goff has ever scored 35 points in a game that has temperatures below like 50 even, let alone. But it'll be in Chicago in December, which will probably be 30 best case 35 best case and uh most likely in the 20s or single digits even okay um warren over naji props you are on naji props a little bit i am i like not i like i think naji is gonna gonna crush and be the guy just because it was, we talked about it a little bit. It was a Tomlin decision that, you know, Najee salts the game away, that Najee is their guy. Like later in games, if they're winning or close, like it's not just, it wasn't just an Arthur Smith thing.

Or it wasn't just, you know, the last office coordinator thing. So I think that we see a lot of both of them probably, but that Najee is going to be their guy if they're winning or close. And our guy Brian's got some NASCAR stuff in the chat for peeps as well. Shout out to Brian. Dip your toes in NASCAR. Hit Logano plus 100 over Keselowski. All right.

Super book. Nice CLV. I'm going to trust Brian. I'm not a NASCAR guy, but I know Brian grinds it and knows what he's doing there. So look at this. You come for some week one bets and you're getting NHL draft bets. We're getting season-long props. We're getting NASCAR stuff.

Got to love it for the people. So all right, buddy. Enjoy yourself. Enjoy Detroit. Yeah, you'll find a way, I'm sure. So, again, we appreciate everyone hanging out with us. Available if you're listening on podcast, we appreciate it. If you're not, subscribe to wherever you listen to podcasts.

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So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everyone.