Move The Line - Episode 1000433

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Ninnon joined here as always by Connor Allen coming off of a fantastic weekend, wild card football. One more to go tonight here, Monday night, the winner of Houston and Pittsburgh. It's earned the opportunity to travel to New England for the divisional round. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, not much. It is crazy that we still have another game tonight.

Like it feels weird after just so much awesome football this weekend, so many good games, a lot of games that started slow and then wound up just finishing insane. So it was, it was awesome. I mean, this is why why are you watched NFL? Yeah, you had boots on the ground for one of them, which we'll get to here shortly, which can always hear more about because it was electric from my couch. And I can't imagine what the vibes were, especially I'm not sure, I'm guessing you went out after two. The game, you know, ended at, you know, 10, 10.30 if you were able to walk around the city,

because I can't even imagine what it was like. tried we legitimately we couldn't it was so busy we couldn't leave the south loop because like it's not like like rigleyville or anything where you can walk around there's like a nice strip of bars and like it's like amazing like it's like south loop you have to like the bears stadium you have like walk like up and down this weird bridge and like it was like body to body but everyone's like chanting like you know like green bay sucks and like you know other other things and stuff like that but it was like it took us like 30 minutes to get out of like the stadium basically just walking and then yeah so then we got to a bar but then it was like a million dollars to get anywhere so we just hung out there

and didn't make it out to like one i think maybe 1230 so at that point we couldn't go out anywhere else like you know we could have but you know it'd been a long day already we tailgated before so it was a lot okay yeah that's that's a full day it's a full day for sure yeah it's you want to a museum it's convenient but it's not what you're looking you know post game vibes you know where my mind was at no probably not um like just in to see whether you walk to from Arlington Heights. There's a Starbucks right there. But they'll have to figure out what they're going to do,

you know, when and if that happens there. So, yeah, great, great weekend of football, really compelling games. We made it all the way through,

obviously last night's game wasn't as close as the others from a final score standpoint, but still compelling down to the end. And that's, I think, all we would want, which is absolutely electric. Yeah,

we suffer through some bad games occasionally, but, man, playoff football, absolutely delivered. Great theater. Want to remind you to check out Sharpstack. Promo code NFL playoffs is a great way to try us out, $10 for your first month. You can do a seven-day trial first.

So stack those together, free seven-day trial. If you like it, you want to do it a little bit longer, just $10 for a month with promo code NFL playoffs. Again, that gets you typically like $130. And again, you're going to get odd screens, Arb tool, EV tool. We'll show some of that today. See if we can pick off any Texans, Steelers, props or anything that's out there. there for you as well. Questions, let us know. You hit us up specifically, Connor and I, and we can definitely help walk you through it again. Not just NFL. Obviously, the NFL is winding

down, but the Sharpstack EV tool is popping all sports. So if you want to grind NBA in particular, it's a great sport for it. Definitely check it out. Let us know if you have any questions. All right, let's start talking about what we saw and then we can move forward to what's to come. So I'm pretty excited about what's coming up next week as well. Let me share our screen and kind of walk through it. Saturday started with what's supposed to be the worst game of the weekend. You know, the Rams were, what, 10, 10 and a half point favorites, depending on where you were. Yeah. Depending on when you got in.

And no surprise. It was almost a big surprise. 3431 was the final. Panthers were in controls, a great fourth quarter back and forth. Kudos to the Panthers for hanging. I mean, I didn't think either of us thought that they really had a snowball chance at hell of getting it done. And we needed late MVP-ish heroics from Stafford and the Rams to get this done.

Great game. And the Rams move on. Yeah. I mean, it's the Panthers all year, basically. We found a way to hung around a lot of games that they didn't really belong in, win games that they didn't really deserve to win. And I don't think our good team on paper, but there's something, I don't know, unquantifiable about this team that is really

tough to understand. And like, Bryce Young, I don't know if you even really played like well, particularly, over the course of the game, but they had enough bigger throws than normal that, like, got the job done. Coker absolutely crushed. And then Ted was solid. So, like, I don't know, like, they put it together. They weren't able to run the ball particularly well. If they were, I think that that could have maybe, like, the Panthers could have won based on how this went.

But I don't know, any concern for you on the Rams, like keeping this one close? Because I guess the final result and throughout the game, honestly, I was always surprised, like, how close it was. Yeah, a little bit. it felt like they got away from what was working so on the first half. They were running the ball. We almost cashed Blake Corum in like the second quarter, even. And then we had to wait until like five minutes left in the game for him to go.

They abandoned. I think he had nine of his 11 carries in the first half. So they just weren't able to sustain drives as much. It felt like they, it's like they wanted to get Devante Adams involved. and it felt like they just were more aggressive taking vertical shots to Devante when it's like running the football and throwing the ball to puka

every time was working. So like what do we, what are we doing here? It felt like they can kind of get away with whatever they want. I was impressed. I thought that they gave up 34 points, 300 yards. The Panthers defense played a little bit better than I thought.

They will get a little bit more pressure than I was expecting. But I don't know, I still think the Rams sealing outcomes are just kind of why everyone feels like the Rams are still a legit Super Bowl contenders. The ceiling outcomes on the Rams on both sides of the ball are as high as anyone in the league. Yeah, it's one of those things where I think that the Rams can still beat everyone. Like, it doesn't change my opinion of them too much. But certainly, I think, leaves some more doubt in my mind about maybe this upcoming week,

you know, in another matchup where I think the Rams are almost very clearly the better team. But there's a couple of more unquantifiable. things about the next opponent that we'll talk about later. Generational sweat for you and the Xavier Leggett backers. Oh, my God. So I was actually with some people. We saw the first legate catch, two targets on the first drive. We bet him under one and a half receptions.

And I was like, you know what? This reminds me of the Super Bowl a couple years ago when we bet Byron Pringle under one and a half receptions minus 200. You get a target and catch on the first play of the game, did not see a single catch the rest of the game. We won the under one and a half. exact same thing happened here. I think you got one more target after that.

Guy sucks, barely out there. Yeah, four targets. But still, it's like, would I have played it again, knowing that Bryce Young would throw the ball 40 times? Probably not. Sure. But, you know, it got home. So that's good.

A win's a win. But yeah, certainly the optics in the rear of your mirror were not fantastic. Yeah, I wasn't even thinking. I was thinking about it when it happened right away because I'm like, oh, I know Connor is on under the one and a half and they gave me basically two targets to start the game. Got one of them like, oh, man, you know, you hate to see that. And then the whole rest of the game, nothing.

Just insane run out there. That always feels good, right? Yeah, it feels great. I mean, like, I feel like you're going to have a good weekend with stuff like that. It happens. And I did, you know, that was a great part. You know, we got that and then the Rams rushing team stuff hit here. So that was, it wanted to be in a great game.

But I shouldn't have hit more alts with this Rams rushing stuff. Like you mentioned, like they just stopped running the ball well. or running the ball at all, basically, in the second half. And so we didn't cash really any of the alts here, which kind of suck. But, you know, is what it is. Moving forward for the Panthers, I don't know, Bryce Young, nothing changes in my mind on like Bryce Young, necessarily. It's good to see Tet be that guy that you would want when you put first round draft

capital into a top 10 or, you know, wide receiver. Koker emerging, I think is a real thing. They lost Ikiy Kuanu here. They've had some other offensive line issues. So it seems like something they could address in the draft. I think still think the defense is overall below average unit. But again, they're in a division that seems very winnable every year. So I'll be interested to see how they approach the offseason.

But again, you're kind of tied to Bryce Young. I'm not sure where this contract situation is, but it feels like you're going to have to make a decision there pretty soon. Yeah, I think you got one more year of cost-controlled, Bryce Young, right? Yeah. And then you'd have to, I mean, I guess you'd pick up his fifth year option, right? But I don't know. It'll be interesting because he's, I don't think he's the answer. I think they're better off moving on here quickly.

But, you know, the other options available, I don't think are particularly great. Yeah, he's back next year for sure. Just, you know, do you want to do the Daniel Jones thing, right? In India, you know, and the Giants, right, where they felt like they probably could have got away with waiting a little bit longer. and then or maybe franchise tagging them a little bit and they you know poned up and paid a bunch don't feel like you want to do that we trust the analytics team uh people in charge there making the right decision there so it's it's tough it's a tricky place to be based on what i know about them i can't imagine they're going to probably be looking for other options i would think

so probably next off season unless he takes strides forward right um and having cocker and Tet definitely helps that up. All right. We'll get to the game that you were at. Insane. Chicago 31, Green Bay, 27. I've not had time to rewatch.

Like I say, I want to rewatch the second half and get a feel for like, what it happened. Because it was, it was pretty, pretty bonkers. I mean, some insane stuff in the first half,

even for the Packers, like, you know, early touchdowns on, you know, like third and long. It could have been, And, you know, third and nine ends up being, you know, the touchdown to, I think it was the J.

Jane Reed touchdown. And then, you know, fourth down touchdown, right? Like, you don't get those or you force field goals and things look very different heading into the half, 21 to three of the half, 21, six to start the fourth quarter. Bears just continued to drive and couldn't get into the end zone. And then Green Bay started just, I don't know, treating timeouts like they had an infinite amount of them. and that obviously came back and cost them.

You could see, again, I know for the, you know, win projected bros who, you know, hate these graphs. I get it. But this one tells a very specific story of one of the most insane comebacks for a team that this is their bread and butter. And again, they continue to test fate. But this, we're almost touching the top here, right? I mean, we are right at the top of where this game looked like it was trending there

for a little bit. and then Kayla Magic is pretty undeniable at this point. Yeah, it was nuts. And like they, so they went for it six times on fourth down throughout the game. They didn't get any out of the first half. They only got two out of six total in the game. I mean, Ben Johnson was going for like on his own 30 like time, 35, 40. Like it was any time.

It wasn't even like small fourth in shorts. He was just going for it whenever. Just trying to get something going because they really weren't moving the ball particularly well. The first drive was good. It was like a super long running drive, like that things were looking decent. You know, I ended up stalling for a field goal, but it was like, okay, you know, like they're moving the ball all right. You know, they can do well.

And they just couldn't do really much of anything in the second, in the, like, rest of the half. And it even took really to that the fourth quarter. You mentioned 216 heading in the fourth quarter for them to get going at all. And what was interesting, what stood out to me the most, actually, was the defense here. And like how, like, what Dennis Allen was doing for a large chunk of the game that just, like, wasn't working. And this is, it's kind of cool being at the. the game because you can like it's a more zoomed out so i could see kind of like where the safeties were and like where like what was going on dennis allen was just running like cover one or cover

zero man like every third down and every second down and like just trying to get pressure and get to get home and he just couldn't like he was sending guys like crazy five six like whatever you can get in in there and they just weren't getting home at all so then jordan love was just absolutely tearing apart like and the receivers were just dismantling the bear's corners because you got like a banged up Kyler Gordon and like, you know, Nashan Wright and like, you know, guys who were just not very good at this point. So,

but then he made a change and kind of started sitting back a little bit more and Montes Sweat started getting home, like on his own. And so then that makes a big difference. And Austin Booker was, you know, out there. Like it was, it was like that change right there, I think made a big difference because this Bears,

the Packers scored six points in the second half, weared to 21 the first, and then the Bears were obviously able to turn it on late offensively. So that, but the biggest change to me was the Bears defense. because the comeback never starts to the Bears defense doesn't play well and like force some stops because they looked like the worst defense

in the league in the first half. They just couldn't do anything. It's still a situation where like, I thought Jordan Love played pretty well. I mean, four touchdowns and 323. They just, they sometimes still struggle with like singles and doubles. Right. Like he loves to go deep when you're inviting that

when you're playing man in cover one and cover zero at such a high rate. You're inviting that when you're inviting that when you're blitzing so much. But it just seemed like they stalled out a couple of different times. And like there's just, that's kind of the magic of what happens with the bears. And, you know, the timing of, we've all seen some of the Caleb throws now.

I mean, that fourth down throw is, you know, your season. It ends there. And such an insanely athletic throw to be rolling to your left as a right-handed quarterback to make that throw and drop it in a bucket. Like, that's why. he's probably going to continue to be so fascinating and so frustrating because I think he's going to steal another guy that will struggle to make some basic throws.

You're like, what happened there? And like we'll make an insane play that like, I don't know, three or four other quarterbacks in the whole league can make. Which is just invites a ton of upside. And they're fascinating. This matchup here is the Sunday afternoon game with the Rams going to Chicago.

Let's see where we are currently. It's like four and a half, I think. Three and a half. Three and a half. Across the board. Some four, still four out there at ESPN score. A total of 50.5, 51 and a half. How do you handicap that right now?

I mean, kind of what we alluded to here, like, so I dug up some of the stats of Dennis Allen against Matthew Stafford in his career, which obviously a little bit noisy, considering both of, you know, some different locations. So seven games, against Dennis Allen defense in his career.

64.7% completion rate, eight yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, four interceptions, averaging like 270 yards a game. Three of the four interceptions came in one game. All of which were pick sixes, by the way, I think. It was like, yeah, against the Saints, like a couple of years ago. But then only two of those game were with McVeigh and the Rams.

It was 2022. He crushed. He left earlier with a concussion, though. 2023, completed like 70%, 328, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. schematically, there's nothing in my mind for me to think that this is going to go particularly well for the Bears. I will say, though, that it's going to be like zero degrees or like negative five degrees.

This is an L.A. team, like Stafford has never played in the game this cold in his entire career, NFL career, per what I can find. He's never even played in anything close, actually. I think the closest was like 20 degrees against the Jets. But you didn't do well, but it was a good Jets defense. There's like 2023 or something like that with the sauce like Sala. Like they were they were a good defense at that point. So I don't think that there's any like clear thing of like it can't be good.

I think he's certainly built to, you know, rip it and, you know, be fine in the cold. But it's, I mean, the turf is going to be rock hard. It's going to be cold. And I mean, like, I don't know. This is one of those games where I think the bears can probably have some success offensively. I worry about their defense a lot in this game. So I don't know. Do you have any early thoughts here?

Because for me, it's mostly just like, I don't know. I don't have too much data to back it up to back the bears. But there hasn't been much data to back the bears for most of the season, I would say. Yeah, I worry about like, it seemed very obvious that they were, you know, and again, I think Kyler Gordon's awesome. He's just obviously not healthy. Packers clearly were looking for him anytime he was on the field in the second half. It was literally like, it felt like five straight.

passing place. They were going after Kyle of Gordon. Now, the numbers weren't great. Part of it was they were taking shots, you know, deep to him because it's actually catch rate over expectations. Pretty good. You know, but again, they were probably throwing a little bit deep. Yeah, I mean, loves passer rating when targeting Kylea Gordon was pretty solid.

Jaylon Johnson had probably one of the more underrated plays in the game that like break up over the middle for, I think it was a third. down to Christian Watson. It was just a fantastic play. I think getting him would start playing like he's been playing in years past. That's going to be huge. They're going to need some answers for Puka. That's what would make me nervous right now.

I'm not sure that guy is on the roster in their current state. Just feels like throwing the ball to Puka 15 times is a pretty good weapon. Now, throwing the ball 15 times to Colston Loveland was also a insanely, efficient scenario for the bears. I mean, Loveland, I think you get 15 targets at eight balls. I think five of the eight went for like 19 or more yards. So it's not like he just was like cleaning up and getting targeted and then like winning a bunch of like little dumpoffs.

Colston Loveland was winning vertically. He was winning up the seam. He's winning in like press. Like it didn't matter what they were doing. He was an absolute weapon. I like the bears getting more. I like the hook on getting. the Bears.

Connor dropped off. He'll be back with me. But yeah, that's, I think, getting more than three is probably where I would lean right now on Chicago. So again, I don't want to get caught up too much in like singular game.

You know, catch rate metrics, completion rate over expectation metrics. For the most part, you know, the Bears secondary didn't play particularly while to see. Anytime Kevin Byrd was the nearest defender, that was good for, the packers here in the

McLeod. I'm sure they would love to keep McLeod off the field. It's not gone well for him all years. Only on for 13 snaps. So that's a little bit noisy. They did lose T.J. Edwards in this game. It looked like a broken leg,

broken ankle. So we'll see what happens there in terms of Demarco Jackson having the cover some tight ends. That's been a big piece of what the Rams have been doing. They went away from it. Then we didn't see as much 13.

team from the Rams this past week against Carolina, but I think we could see that a good deal against the Rams here too. So, yeah, fascinated to see how that one plays out. But as you can see, currently we're looking at most part three and a halfs across the board. Feels like a lot of points too, but we're kind of kicking around key numbers here. 50 and a half on Pinnacle, 51.5 and a half on some of the other books. So like shopping around would matter key numbers and stuff. So, yeah, it's hard to tell if I think I would lean on the over,

but I also lean on the bears getting more than the hook there. So any thought on the total? Yeah, my mic is still wrecked. So it just like died. It just died mid show. It's just like died. Yeah. Which is crazy, crazy to see.

But, yeah, I mean, 51.5 is hefty, but yeah, it's bears, you know, grinding another one out and finally. and away here and plus three and a half at home. I don't think it's bad. But yeah, the Pooka of Stafford stuff is really tough to envision going well for the Bears defense. So I don't know. Maybe Dennis Allen figure something out.

Maybe the blitzes get home this week. Maybe, you know, maybe things are different. But I still think that there's enough magic on the other side that they can figure it out. I mean, this Panthers' defense, I think is pretty good. Or sorry, Ram's even is pretty good. But they, I mean, I don't know if they played all that well, really? you know like i don't know like there's a lot of 31 points the panthers for sure yeah i don't i think you can get them at corner i think that the uh quentin lake return is nice but um yeah i i think

the defense is better than it played this is the play connor what are we talking about we're bearing the lead rams first half minus two and a half right like if you like the bears why would we mess around with a three and a half pregame when we're going to get like plus six or seven at halftime, right? Like Rams, first half, Bears full game would be probably the best way to go. And if you like the Rams, I think the, you know, less than three is probably the right angle. Not a lot of interest in the total because, again, the bears have pretty consistently laid eggs. Any thoughts on handshake gates or, you know, F them Packers in the locker room after?

Any thoughts on, you know, the old half? Ed's having a real hard time with the professionalism of the handshake and the, you know, F the Packers speech. I mean, it's definitely not professional. It's definitely not the norm. But I thought it was awesome. I mean, it's cool. So it's like, I don't know, bring some rivalry and fun the NFL again, you know, like LaFour was super professional. Ben Johnson was cheesing like, you know, probably like Brady when he got his first car, you know, like a couple weeks ago.

Like after that handshake, he was going nuts. But, I mean, they also work their asses off. And, you know, I like to, I think they like to escalate it. I love the press for this morning that met the McCaskies, like, signed off on him saying, fuck the Packers. I think that's hilarious. Like, I don't know. But now they got to, they got to back it up. Because if you talk a lot of trash, like, and you don't keep winning, I mean, that runs thin real quick.

You know, like, I think we kind of saw that with some of Mike McDaniel's antics, you know, the last couple years. And, like, yeah, it was different. obviously way different you know like he was more like chill vibey miami bro kind of thing you know morphed into that um and people don't like whatever stick you have after a while if you don't win so it's all all good and dandy when you're winning if you're not winning then it's not going to go well look we've talked about it extensively it's one of the fakesest rivalries in professional sports right like it's, you know, proximity based. It's not like they're the closest to franchises.

Like, I don't know. Again, they're old. They've been around for a while franchise-wise. But like we've had three games in like, what, six weeks, seven weeks span. All amazing. All down to the last snap. All great.

You know, in terms of the lore of the history of the rivalry, three of the best games they've ever had stacked all up against each other, right? There was a little bit, it felt like, at least to me with like casuals, there was some like Packers Bears fatigue. It's like, again, the Packers? And it's like, the first two games were awesome. They're both good.

This matters a lot. So like, yes, not professional. But I saw Kyle Brandt talking about it today too. It's like I'm kind of, we've have enough of like post game jersey swaps, right? There's so much of that in the sport. It's good. I'm not saying we need to like generate animosity for no reason. But like, look, he came and he stood up on the podium day one and was like drawn a line in the sand.

He was like, we're going to make this thing. Our fans want it. Their fans probably want it. The bear, the Packers have been waiting for the bears to catch up for a little bit. Lean into it. Lean into it. I love it. He shook his hands.

Unprofessional, we've been not shaking the sand. He shook his hand. Kind of like a douchebag, but he shook his hands. Yeah. And look, it's, it's really, you got to put your. opponent division rival, ideal like rival in a body bag

and they got to think about it for the entirety of the winter, spring and summer. That's kind of cool and the Bears haven't had that for a while. So I thought it was great. Like any Packers fan claiming that this is like crossing the line, like Rogers, Rogers used to say like,

I'm your daddy basically to the bit to the bears. Like he's like, I own the team. Like, which to be fair, he was not wrong. Correct. He was their daddy, you know, but like he talks shit and that's fine. But like just because now Ben Johnson's saying fuck the Packers, like that's not that much different.

Like in some ways that actually might be better, to be honest. But, um, but I don't know. I just think that the holier than now complaint there does not hold up at all. Sounds like the Packers will be bringing the floor back, um, which seems to be, I don't know, a little polarizing. People seem to be, you know, both sides of that. Jeff Hathley, defensive coordinator, is a popular potential head coaching replacement candidate elsewhere. So we're interested to see what happens there.

They have some other big ticket free agents that they have to make decisions on. So it'll be interested to see what happens the Packers this off season. But I can't imagine that we will start to do division previews in July and not think that the Packers are going to be in position to be one of the NFCs, you know, playoff teams again. So there's I mean I think the little floor stuff too like if you have a good like concession plan it can make sense like if you knew you were going to bring in Harbaugh or you know you felt really good about Mike McDaniel or Stefanski or something like that. You know just like if you felt really good about that. I'm not saying that's necessarily the right answer. Harbaugh I probably would pull the trigger on. I probably just do it.

But otherwise I don't know. I don't know if I would do it to be honest. I think that I would keep him and then hope for something else. I think when there feels like there are teams that are lining up to hire him then you should probably have some pause to think about is this the right move for us to get rid of him

if everyone else is clamoring and he would instantly move to like one of the top two positions of viable replacements for other teams totally I should think about it before but what's interesting is again they don't like to have guys on like you know they don't want the coaches on

you know lame duck finally or their contract stuff, which is interesting. Like, why not play it out versus tying yourself up to, you know, a long-term deal, right? Like they get bounced again next year, early, don't make the playoffs. And you decide, hey, I'm going to, I'm going to, you know, extend him. Now I'm on the hook for four more years. Like, that's, that's tough. So I don't know.

We'll see what happens. This is another good comment here. No, Emmanuel Wilson was nice from Donnie. Yeah, we were. So, yeah, we were at the game and, like, Emmanuel Lissa came in in the first drive because it was like, for the backers in a super long drive.

It was like, I think Jacobs had like four or five characters the first drive. It was like 10 plus plays. And he came in, had like a couple of play actions. And me and Rahul were like screaming at like Emmanuel Luson. We're like, don't give him the ball. No, like, you know, like, everyone around is like, what is going on?

Like, you know, like, why do you not want to give him the ball? You know, it was great. He got one carry. Didn't play much at all like the second half. Jacobs is a workforce as we expected. So shout out to you for, you know, finding the play. And, yeah. Oh, Mike again.

Connor, you know what? It's got to turn on a new leaf. I just got to be looking for more unders, buddy. You know, going to be looking for more unders. Catch your attention. Surprise you. So tackles and unders, you know. I do like a good alpha over.

That's a good luck with, you know, I bet tat over. I bet hook over. I probably want some Nico tonight. I haven't got down on that. I thought about that too. I was looking at it just for fun. Might be a good one. Yeah.

So we can mix in some alpha overs. Seekwon. Like, why didn't I push out Seekwon? I love Seekwon. I couldn't decide between I was considering making an official play. I couldn't decide if I wanted to do carries or yards. He blew through both of them. So we'll still find some room in the playoffs for Alpha Overs,

but you don't want to find some spots to make some sense, too. I'm thinking about defensive stuff. should be thinking about good matchups. You should think about Anders. You know, it's on me. You know, whole of my game. I want to patch it up. You know.

I played some more overs this year. Next year, it'll be the year of the on-gird for an end. Yep. Coming back. All right. Sunday first game, Buffalo 27, Jacksonville, 24. Another really bizarre football game. Very compelling.

Great all the way through. Josh was kind of what we expected from Josh. having to do some Superman type stuff. Khalil Shakir was targeted over and over and over again. Seemed like the, especially early, it was that second drive that the Jacksonville, Jags had that like, it was like four straight runs by Tutin or whatever.

They were like gashing them. It's like, oh, this is what we thought could happen here. And then they're just like, yeah, you know what? That was too easy. Why don't we just like Lawrence drop back every time instead of, you know, We know we can go back to the running game whenever we want. They just decided not to play with their food. And Lawrence, I don't know, tip balls, interceptions, bad interceptions.

It wasn't great. And survive in advance of the bills, 27, 24. Yeah, I don't think there was anything like really all that crazy. I think that's actually, to be honest, played out how most people, like, I'll say most people in the industry analyzed. It's like, all right, well, the Jags can easily win this game if they slowed on the run. And then it'll force Josh Allen to basically be super. or just be awesome and then they can win.

And that's basically exactly what happened. Plus a nice little tips pick at the end there. Again, a little bit of negative luck. But that could have easily swung in Jacksonville's favor. Like if they ended up scoring there, win the game, I mean, that's, it was whatever, minus one and a half, 50 point total. I mean, the total ended at 51. So like, like, I don't know.

This is basically exactly very much 50th percentile for 50. percentile outcome either way of whatever you expected in this game so i don't have too many takeaways i think it could have easily could have seen the jaggs advance here or or not so yeah no no massive takeaways here but i'm interested in next week for the bills which i'm sure we'll get to in a bit yeah i'm interested to see what happens there too but jacksville uh off season interesting i mean parker washington seems like a legit guy um obviously you've traded for and extended jacobby meyers you have uh you know a weird up and down mostly down Brian Thompson Jr. season.

And you have the Travis Hunter stuff as well. So be interested to see if they move on from a Brian Thomas Jr. They make a trade there. I'm interested to see if they want to continue to go two ways with Travis Hunter. Considering that they are not necessarily weak in the secondary. I don't know. I'm very fascinating to see what happens in the offseason. Jacksonville.

It feels like pretty good coach. You know, again, young organizational minds kind of in play there, lost themselves a little bit in that game getting away from the run. But I think obviously a pretty good season definitely exceeded, I think our expectations for Jacksonville coming in. Yeah, absolutely. It was a great first Liam Cohen season for them. And at this point, like, I don't really have to make changes

because it's super disappointing for Brian Thomas for, like, what we saw his rookie year versus what we saw this year. but in terms of like if you won an outside guy, it's just going to be like a, I don't know, they're basically using it's like a field stretcher, kind of like glorified version of that. And I mean,

I guess you have a good one. So, but it certainly seems like a waste of draft capital talent. If that's how you're going to use him. But there also seems like just some weird stuff going on there with, I don't know, behind the scenes we probably don't know about. So who knows?

Very possibly traded. That wouldn't surprise me that much either, I guess. I would guess that Travis Hunter is going to come back and be like 95% of corner with like three to four design plays next year when he returns to be honest i got where where are they going to use him like Parker Washington and jacobi meyers are awesome i know yeah and again for jacobby jacobie's just like good like he's just solid you know but yeah no he's good yeah um no it's fair that's the only reason you make a brian thomas junior trade i guess uh obviously

you want to have death behind that but again you have you have you know a wide receiver three wide receiver four that our first round picks the last two years seems like a weird way to go ahead and build the roster um yeah and again like the travis hunter stuff is way less fascinating like you leveraged a lot to trade up from five to two to get him for him to be a corner only right like that's not really a given a full year like not even really a full half year right because it seemed it was so uneven to start the year too with his usage and what's going on there so yeah very interesting offseason decision there. But again, if Lawrence can continue to make strides,

second year in Liam Cohen's offense, you could expect Jacksonville to be competitive again next season. So, yeah, let's see what our line is. It was the first game on Saturday. Saturday afternoon, I believe it's in like the 3.30 or 4 o'clock window. Buffalo on the road in Denver. We've kind of fluctuated, and you could see here kind of flat, essentially a pick-em oh no i'm in the first half uh but still mostly a

pick-um um well moved a little bit finical moving out to two and a half very very interesting and i don't think either of us think super highly of denver um they are such a challenging team to handicap um you know again you're broncos broncos fans your bronco ties have long since died i don't think you have you caping up too hard for uh your team here quote unquote But they've known some signs that shows that they are one of the real teams. And then you just get them playing with their food so strangely against bottom feeders. Fascinating game. I don't really even know how to handicap this Buffalo team against Denver here.

So what are your thoughts? I think it's pretty similar, honestly, to like, I guess the other game they played. Also, too, this Denver defense, they're obviously a really good unit. I think there are some holes to pick, though. like when they played good teams this year or like a couple of good teams they got blasted I mean the jags shredded them early season Colts with Daniel Jones crushed them like they were not like a perfect unit by any means I learned that the hard way you know unfortunately via my money and some unders but um even kind of mobile prime jackson dart that we saw the season right

when he felt like he was really cooking they had everything going on there um they kind of did whatever they wanted in that game I agree. Yeah, exactly. So, like, I don't think, I think that the bills could easily win this game. They're obviously a flawed team in their own, but I worry a lot about this Denver offense. I worry just, like, the consistency of what that looks like. They've been really spotty at times. Sometimes they look great. Sometimes they look like a bottom 10 unit. So kind of the Jekyll and I'd of whatever we get there. And then, in the other hand, like Josh Allen, I think probably does fine in this matchup. I think that he does good. It's not quite as clear of, like, a pass funnel as the Jags were.

you know, with James Cook, I doubt that he's going to have 15 carriers for, you know, 46 yards again, which, you know, I think that helps more Josh Allen even more. When they can run the ball, you know, they're even better. So it's, I think that the bills win this one, to be honest. I like them against the spread right now. So bills, less than three is a play for Connor. I don't, I don't disagree just because when this game starts, this is one of these things, right? We easily get lost in these moments.

And this isn't, like, data-driven. very much not data driven. This game starts. I turn this football game on and I'm holding a Broncos ticket. The first time the bills have the football, I'm like, shit, like, why am I?

Like, I'm sure that was for anyone that was holding Jags tickets this past weekend. The game starts, you're like, I got Trevor Lawrence instead of Josh Allen. And this is like basically a pickum. Like, I don't,

I don't want that. I don't want Bo Nix. I don't want money on Bo Nix when Josh Allen was a viable option at less than three. And I think sometimes, playoff football can come down to those singular things. So in Denver's not a team that, especially lately, they've been skewing so pass-heavy. They're not a team that's just going to be like,

yeah, you know what? We're going to do what Jacksonville forgot to do. We're just going to punish you on the ground until you stop it. We're going to make you kind of man up and stop it. And again, like Jordan Poir leaves this game with a hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries for a guy, Jordan Poirer's state of his career. it's not a one week bounce back injury too he's been such an important piece of their run stopping which has been almost non-existent so like i don't know is denver built to take advantage of

the bill's really clear blatant weakness i don't know that they are yeah i mean if they had it's crazy to say if they had jk dauben still yeah i agree like kind of having someone who can like grind the ball a little bit better i don't know if they like harvey'll get a lot of work i just don't know if he's quite the right type of player to really execute that yeah and it looks like he was close. I don't know. Maybe we get good Dobbins news on Wednesday. We get practice and it seemed to be trending pretty well. I don't know if we can, I'll look at anything now, but I, that would be interesting. That would give me pause on, on Buffalo or yeah, I don't know. I still think I'm still with you. I think I like Buffalo. But we'll see. But fascinating

game, really interesting. Let's move on to the other Saturday night game. Rematchable. We just saw a couple weeks ago. Well, let's talk about this one. The Sunday afternoon game. We got the Niners and Eagles. Champ is dead. Another really weird football game. I can't imagine playing for the Eagles.

You're the defending Super Bowl champs. You went, you know, 11 and 6. You had a pretty good year. And like, you go three and out, and your team is just getting booed off the field relentlessly. Again, this is one of those situations where we know, I know you were doing your sleuth work early in the season. you know, A.J. Brown didn't go to, you know,

hurts his wedding or engagement party or whatever was going on. Yep. It's just at a certain time, the vibes are going to catch up. And it's just really hard to outrun very clearly bad vibes. It just seemed like Seriani is a guy that, like, something like they don't like his schick. It's a little bit much. I don't know.

They couldn't outrun the vibes. The Niners are insane. again, to lose George Kittle in the first quarter of this game with everything that they've, like, they've been missing this year that they lost to continue to win football games is insane runout, a testament to Kyle Shanahan and his staff. You know, Robert Sala deserves a lot of credit for what they've done with this. I mean, we're not even at the B team anymore. We are at the C team in some positional groups.

It's wild. 3 or you know 2319 your thoughts yeah they were just a straight up awful defense at this point like I don't think that they're very good with what they got left and I mean we saw the Eagles like running wise be okay you know Sequin 106 yards 26 carries wasn't super efficient

Hertz just like couldn't get it done at all Devontza Smith had a bigger game but like AJ Brown had a couple drops when it mattered most he was John at Nick Siriani on the sidelines Tom Brady kept writing it off as like passion, and I get that to some extent here, but A.J. Brown seemingly has a problem with basically everyone on the team at this point, considering the whole Hertz thing earlier, and then, you know, Siriani.

And I mean, it's just like, like you said, the vibes. I thought Philly was a great matchup on paper for the Niners, because it looked like Lane Johnson was going to be in. Trent Williams wasn't going to play. Then the exact opposite happened, and Trent Williams played. Lane Johnson out. That matters for sure. and then you add on like just not being able to be clutch at all,

scoring six points in the second half. And the Niners, despite not be able to run the ball offensively, the Marcus Robinson pops off for 111 yards who look great, was getting open, like, you know, looked awesome. Then they just checking down to CMC and use check. Basically the rest of the game, Jennings had one catch for 45 yards. By the way, he's over under was 45 and a half. I was very close pushing that out.

I didn't put out the under on him. and I probably would have been shitting myself. So I'm glad that I didn't. It would have been tough, but, you know, still did nothing. Like, it was an awful match. So what are they going to do now? Jake Tongis will probably play a bigger role. We had a guy named Malik Turner get a target and drop a ball.

I didn't know who that was. You ever hear of this guy? Nope. He went to Illinois. Looks like he's in his fifth season. I don't think he's, they said he, like, hadn't got a pass in, like, years, I think. since the first Bush administration. Yeah, I mean, like, I don't know.

A lot of Sky Moore. Yeah, a lot of, you know, Skymore was involved a bunch. You know, not targets, but like he's on the field. He's, you know, out there running around. It's tough. Absolute dime from Jennings. And I did not realize this. But apparently Jennings in high school was like a dude at quarterback.

Yeah, ranked ahead of Darnold Burrow, Lamar Jackson, as dual threat quarterbacks in high school as a quarterback. Insane. DART took it in the face from Jalen Carter. You know, yeah, just insane, insane play. It's just going to have to be a lot of Christian McCaffrey against CL, throwing him the ball, trying to hand him the ball. It's not going to work, I don't think particularly well, but they're going to try.

The MC's rushing over hundreds. They already released some props for the weekend. It's 56 and a half. I think that's too high. It probably is. but again uncorrelated overrun attempts under and yards yeah I keep forgetting like yeah the early the early Monday releases for playoff games is pretty wild

it sucks because nothing we can do with it but it's fun to fun to see though yeah it's at least to see the openers hey AJ Brown I'd love to have you in New England you know we can't make the Brian Thomas Jr. trade we could use another deep threat you know Drake may likes to throw the ball deep get him out of the conference. I had to do a locker room with with Diggs and A.J. Brown.

Look, you know, he used to coach A.J. Brown? Mike Frable. Remember, it was very unhappy, but A.J. Brown was traded. So I'm just saying, keep an eye out for that. Remember when the Titans thought they're getting the next AJ Brown? And they traded away, AJ Brown for Trelon Burks, basically. I mean, talk about Galaxy brand. That's just rough.

Yeah, Titans fans remember that for sure. That's for sure. It's a tough one. But yeah, I mean, look, the laundry list is insane at this point. Like, you know, most people watching aren't aware of De Winters, but De Winters played linebacker all season for the Niners. He was out of this game. Tain Bethune, who replaced Fred Warner first out in this game.

Eric Kendricks, who's not a bad football player, but he's a little bit older, literally wasn't on a team until, like, December got signed on the practice squad of the Niners, has, like, played maybe like 12 snaps in the season, played every down and was like an important piece of this Niners defense. Luke Gifford, who was like their sixth, like six linebacker. He was out for this game. I didn't even know of the dude. I had not even heard.

He's not even in my sheets of anything I'm using here. Was it Wallow? Yeah, Grant Wallow, 11 tackles for Grant Wall. I had no idea who his guy is. Getting a ton of snaps. He's a linebacker for the Niners. He had to play. the whole game basically because again

Gifford, Bethune all these guys are out of the game. Winters. It's just absolutely bonkers of what they're doing rolling out. Like we haven't seen Maurice Siegel in months. He's having to play

a ton of snaps to get eight tackles. These guys just have to like, again, most of these guys haven't been playing meaningful snaps all year and they're out here getting work done. On the road in Philly in the playoffs. The further that we zoom out from the Jets, Robert Sala, I think we can realize that Robert Sala is an awesome coach. Like, he consistently makes the most out of like, I think the Jets actually had some good players, to be clear then.

Like, you know, I just saw us and so other guys were good. But like he is making the most out of nothing right now. I mean, this is like guys that borderline shouldn't even be in the NFL and they weren't in the NFL until, you know, the Niners just needed them. Yeah. I mean, just absolute masterful job. They dominated in time of possession by the Eagles too. So these guys are on the field a ton and held it down. So kudos to them.

The task is tough. They are having to go back up to the Pacific Northwest where they started this season. Again, Seattle, we're seeing most seven and a half, some sevens out there on draft kings and Fandul. The knuckle welds a couple weeks ago when they matched up. I'll be interested to see what they learned from. that matchup because again it's you would think that they would take away some stuff and improve but um seattle kind of did whatever they wanted in that game a couple weeks ago so any thoughts

on early niners seahawks i think the under is pretty interesting here um i i don't really think that there's like a reasonable like what what makes us think that the niners are going to like all of a sudden score more on the seahawks you know like this this time around um i don't know do you You have any reason to believe it? Yeah, like the Alaska was 17-13, and they played him early, I know, 313, sorry, earlier in the season it was 17-13. And I think Robert Tull has figured out enough ways to spook Sam Darnold that, like, you know, he can, I think that's kind of an underrated element of getting to the Seahawks here.

But, yeah, like seven and a half and four, plus seven and a half and 40, under 45 and a half, 46 seems like a good bet to me. I just, I don't, I don't know, like, do you have a way that the Niners, like, move the ball well? consistently, I don't. I mean, the matchup that we thought could be exploited when they met just a couple weeks ago was the tight end. He thought George Kittle could be a massive weapon. He didn't do much.

They struggled right away. But you've been able to kind of get to the Seahawks with really good tight ends and pass catching running backs. So it's like, okay, they maybe do have a little bit of a path considering how much they to use McAfrey in the passing game, how much they can use Kittle. But like, is Jake Tadjus winning a divisional game for them? like on the back of him that's that's really tough so again

the feather in their cap here to your point of why the under might be good because even with the B team CEL didn't really make them pay right like this is a pretty pedestrian 20 to 26 from San Donald they ran the ball fairly well you know but you know ran in a bunch

kind of controlled the game there they didn't really have to get much out of a JSN but they obviously didn't turn that faucet whenever they want to here, but I think under is probably the best look. Yeah, I mean, under and I don't know, like I don't know if I really want to back anything else on the Seahawks side here, just because, yeah,

or the nine side. Like it's just kind of like a tough game, maybe find some good unders in that game. Great, great spot for me, but I don't know about for any overbetters. Tanges 33 and a half opens up at a little higher than I would have hoped. you just check at 15 and a half because he was basically used as like the backup tight end there for half the game we saw that early in the year too remember though we kiddle out yeah I remember we had six and a half

and you got a concussion after catching a six-yard pass in the first drive that was uh less than ideal yeah so interesting I like the under and with you there that's probably the game play um but again like 27 past attempts, 26 past attempts. I mean, and running back carries pretty unsuccessfully for the Niners here. This is kind of rough. So, interesting to see the adjustments, right? Like, these coaches are too good for this game to have just happened. They are in the division.

They're familiar with each other. There have to have been some adjustments game plan-wise for the Niners coming into this game. It might not matter. Again, this happened at home. You're going to a place that's kind of. kind of tough to play historically, especially in the playoffs, those fans will be, you know, ready to go. And that'll be tricky and tough for the Niners. So not dying to lay the seven, but that's probably my lean too.

All right. The last game was the Chargers trying to piece it together against the Patriots. 16 to 3, New England wins that game. But Herbert just wasn't good enough, being honest. I know that he was under pressure the entirety of the game. You also was under pressure the entire of this game, Drake May. And he held up and got it done. Herbert's got to be better.

We're going to have a lot of offseason questions about can you finally win a playoff game and you get over the hump. They're obviously going to be a completely different team with their bookend offensive tackles, assuming that they can stay healthy. But they often probably lose Jesse Minter, I would expect. coaching somewhere. And I think, again, another underrated coordinator who deserves a chance somewhere,

you know, be interested to see the impact of his loss. But I think the Chargers are going to be an interesting team and popular in the futures market. But they weren't good enough in this spot. Courtes to you for being all over the Omari in Hampton under. But your thoughts on May and the Pats, knocking off Herbert and the Chargers. I mean, I wish I'd have had more on the Hampton Under. I didn't know he was going to be that limited. You know, I thought it was going to be like 50-50 or something.

with him and Vidal, not 90-10 or whatever. It ended up being carry-wise. Yeah, I guess I would personally put more blame on, like, the O-line. He now had like two or three years, really bad drops. Herbert didn't play particularly well, but it seemed like he was under pressure a lot. And, yeah, like, I mean, the Chargers defense is really good, too. So obviously, hats off to Drake May. He played well.

This game was, for me, extremely boring. It was just like a lot of, you know, a lot of good defense, which is, you know, not what I wanted to see here. I was hoping for a little more, but schematically, like, I played the Omar and Hampton under for a reason, you know, like, I didn't think the charge was going to have success throwing the ball. It was going to have to be all on Herbert's back and his back broke, you know, like you couldn't carry the team. And so that's, I mean, that's a major problem. I mean, yeah, it's just tough. I mean, Vidal averaged, what, two in it, two point eight errors per carry and 11 carries. and that was with a 10-yard carry.

So it's like, that's not a good look. And Herbert was scrambling for his life, 10 carries, 57 yards. But this Pat's team, I think, is good. I think they, I was actually talking about this with Julian Edlo, the draftsons guy this morning. So the look headlines for the Patriots is like minus two and a half against the, or minus three, I think, against the Texans, minus six against the Steelers.

I think that the Texans would actually be a pretty similar matchup to what we just saw in this game with the Patriots shutting down the Texans running game, which is not much of a game anyways. And then C.J. Stroud being forced to do stuff and probably not going well, I would guess. Yeah, I'm a big Steelers fan tonight because that feels a lot safer. Yeah. I mean, the Texas defense is obviously a good bit better than the Chargers, for sure. Yeah. Yeah, Texans defense is a wagon. I think it's a decent comp.

You would probably see a lot of Christian Gonzalez locked up against Nico. Or the opposite, right, where you just kind of throw him and you, you know, bracket Nico with, you know, the other side. But yeah, New England's, it's just the off splits with Milton Williams are hard to overstate. It's just, it's been impactful for both their ability to generate pressure. You got one and a half sacks last night and also how good they are against the run. fantastic player. They give him a ton of money for a reason. And he seems to be a little bit of a force multiplier where he makes it better for

Christian Barmore next to him. You know, he makes it better for Anthony Jennings or, you know, whatever else you have kind of mixing in, right? Harold Landry, everything gets a little bit easier for the rest of the guys around him because

he draws so much attention in the middle and does his thing. So, yeah, they're better than I think people think defensively. I hope that Woody Marks runs for like 80 yards. in this one because it legitimately might take him 30 carries to get 50 yards against the Patriots. Just given what we've seen in no line and his ability or lack thereof in Patriots run defense. Like he can't, there's no way he cracks 50 yards barring like a collapse from the Patriots defense.

Yeah. Yeah, that'd be nice. I know that the Steelers won in New England earlier this season by field goal late and they won the turnover battle five zip. it wasn't just 5 Zip that was the game where we thought like okay this is going to be the benching or cutting of Ramandri Stevenson

who literally was the best player in the field for Patriots last night but like he fumbled on his way to a touchdown he fumbled again inside like the 5 or 10 so yes Pittsburgh fans I know that you already went into New England to win and you could do it again sure I don't think that you believe that very much to be honest

I'm sure you'd feel pretty good about yourself you come off in this game and you beat the Texas tonight. So a fascinating one there. But yeah, Stevenson was awesome. You know, we fell short of the dig stuff. Like, Drig May had 29 attempts and 10 different guys got targeted. It's going to be really thin and tough to win when you get, you know, 10 different guys targeted with only 29 attempts. I didn't think Booty was going to play either. They brought up some guy in the practice squad. A bunch of people jammed some Douglas overs and then he ended up playing and looked great. He broke a couple tackles there. Diggs was running like three-yard

routes basically the entire game because I was watching closely. So that's not going to cut it, but I think that there could still be a digs game. I just don't know if I'm going to be betting on it, to be honest, just because based on, I don't know, the routes that he was running were kind of unsatisfactory for me, to be honest. Yeah, I mean, I think the charges play so much D and he felt like his goal was to just find the spots and Drake just likes to look downfields and he's like, well, I'm going to take booty out here versus the, you know, a little six yard. There are multiple times.

Like, you know, they show the replay from, like, the all-22 view, and you see Diggs wide open, but, like, it didn't matter, Drake. Ball's already gone. He's down the field, so. Or he ran. Or he ran. There's a couple of times where we could have thrown to Diggs on a crosser and, like, probably had 20 yards of space and instead he, like, tucked it, you know,

and probably still got 20 yards, but, you know, at the cost of my prop, you know, how did he not know that we've got on? It's pretty selfish. Very selfish, Drake. Yeah, so we'll see what happens. Any thoughts on tonight's Houston and in Pittsburgh game? We got basically three across the board, a little bit juicy on the Texan side, 38, 3.5 total.

Yeah, we touched on it a little bit on the earlier show, but I think that I'm trying to figure out the best way to play this. So Rogers, highest rate in the league of passes coming out within two and a half seconds, 56.4%. And then when the quarterbacks have gotten the ball against Houston, they've allowed a 70% completion rate, which is still top 10, but still, like, way higher. When they have not, that drops to 47.7%. It's like third best in the league.

So I don't know. It's like a very interesting tale of like, how do they get the ball quick? How can they? Like I was thinking attempts over maybe completion's over. The problem is that the Texans don't push them. They might just run the ball 30 times. So like, you know what I mean? Like I don't know if I want to rely on a volume based bet.

And I don't know, I don't know if I want to rely on like a. efficiency-based bet because they're still good, but like, you know, there's a lot of wrenches that can be thrown in this. Maybe it's a live bed of like, you know, they fall down by a touchdown. He'll have 40 attempts and 25 completions or something like that, which will be way lower than whatever the markets are at. That and then Kenneth Gainwell stuff, I was looking at unders on his rushing. But he's that's like 28 and a half.

I think he kind of settled into a good role last week of like mostly just being the quick passing guy and then like Jalen Warren's going to carry more on the ground. but I also, I mean, that's not like, I've really like a two-game sample of that basically. So I don't know how sticky that is. Yeah. I struggle with, I think I touched on us a little bit, you know, we're looking at kind of the tail ends of plays per game,

place against per game. Pittsburgh, bottom three in place per game, they're almost the most plays against per game, their opponents. And then the Texans are they flip, you know, the opposite. that they average like 64 plays per games, one of the highest rates in the league, and they give up less than 58,

which is again, I think, like a top five rate. So it's going to be really hard based off of that, depending on what could happen here, for us to get to a spot where the Steelers run 60 plays, right? Then you're kind of,

you're working through the lens of like, how do the Steelers get to 60 plays? When you start having to make attempts, bets, that starts to get real thin. It gets real tough. Well, then that may, I mean, Kenny G under seven and a half carries is kind of interesting then. It's kind of interesting.

I don't know. I think that's like eight carries is a lot of carries. I mean, in a game that you might not even have 60 plays. Correct. The average below, they'll average less than 60. Houston gives up less than 60 on average. Again, I know we're obviously talking about the averages. We can have tail outcomes, game scripts, get flip, things like that.

But like, we're going to work with an entire season of data. of Pittsburgh being one of the slowest teams from a pre-snap situation. Yeah, it's just, it's tough. So it's probably a pretty good look. Yeah, I mean, that's a little bit of juice on the under, but I mean, he is more than eight carries in four games with Jalen Warren this year. And there was like games that they ran the ball a million times. So it's possible, but I don't know, kind of seems like an interesting look there.

Sharpstack likes under one and a half yards from Aaron Rogers. Likes the under on Thielen receiving yards at 14.5. Where have we got here? Cesar's there too in the rushing yards. So you get a little bit more down. Off that open. What's driving that under? Let's see.

Click the plus thing. We got Penny minus 103. Is there any? Is that just that's even a half? That's a half yard too. Half minus 103. Okay, that's probably driving it. Yeah, I'm always hesitant to play quarterback rushing yards in the playoffs,

and I think Rogers is like pretty gritty. But, yeah, I mean, blindly tailing sharp sack obviously has been pretty solid. Yeah, two yards. It's a tough hang. I love the unders like these. MVS under one and a half minus 160. That's my kind of bet right there. I love that.

That is great. Yeah, MGMs are screwed there, but, you know, Builder, 185. What's, um, Indul? Yeah, he like, I mean, he barely even runs, it was 82% route rate last week. But I think we might see more Calvin Austin. Andy K. McCaff's back. Andy came back. Oh, man, I mean, I got to play this. This guy's not even being out there.

Like, I think Thielen might play more, too. I think feeling, Scotty Miller was like kind of their best player the last couple of weeks. He didn't play as much last time. He had 24% last week, 669% two weeks prior. I'm going to bet it just for the for the bit slash it's a good bet. I think it's a good bet. Yeah, that's pretty good. I don't even know if he gets targeted. If he does, it'll be like 50 yards down field and you know he ain't catching that. He's the new me Cole Hardman. Yeah. Your sweat might be snaps. Yeah. I wonder, it's like a big mystery. I looked at, uh, whatever. whatever like rich rebars thing.

I looked at ETR's thing and no one really had a clear answer on the rotation for these guys. You know what I mean? Because I think there's definitely some value somewhere. I just, I can't really tell you where it is. Yeah, DK stuff obviously complicates that too. All right. Good stuff.

I'm excited. One more football game tonight. And then I think four bangers here. Obviously, yeah, it looks like the Patriots have been. getting back because that was I think one and a half if you look at line with Houston and I think it opened it five and a half against Pittsburgh I saw that I'm like that's probably going to be pretty popular that five and a half won't stick around and it sounds like it hasn't already so yeah good stuff as always glad you survived

Chicago on Saturday barely I mean Connor's gonna be into some stuff tonight that he was going to get wild so oh yeah it was a blast Chicago was was just on fire. It was crazy. Yeah, it was just an awesome time. The atmosphere was super cool. Yeah. I appreciate everyone hanging out of this.

Yeah, well, until they take that sucker out of the city and put it in the suburbs and it gets a little bit harder to navigate. Right. For sure. Check out Shardstack. We just showed you a little bit of it. Again, three seven-day trial or if you want to extend, NFL playoffs for a month for 10 bucks. It's a great deal. again move line

we've listened to podcasts 4 live on the YouTube channel come back on Friday for our prop show for Connor I'm Ryan we'll see on next time thanks everybody