Move The Line - Everything You NEED to Know About the AFC South

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Dive deep into the AFC South's dynamics as we explore the latest predictions, odds, and top betting tips for the season. Who will win the division? Is Trevor Lawrence an MVP candidate? Get all the insights you NEED to make informed decisions.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansUse Promo Code YouTube 10 to save 10% off the purchase price!Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends to talk football. Joining us after a week hiatus, Connor Allen. Welcome back to the show, buddy. How are we doing? Good. My body has certainly felt better. I'm off back-to-back bachelor party weekends. And now, not this weekend, but the weekend after, I have another one. And then we are going straight to Vegas to draft a fantasy team and have a lot of fun there.

So, you know, pray for me, but it's going to be an awesome next few weeks. We're going straight to Vegas to draft a fantasy team and have a lot of fun there. So pray for me, but it's going to be an awesome next few weeks. Man, my body cannot handle that. I put you at the Fantasy Football Expo last weekend. I forgot that you had a bachelor party. So, yeah, probably – I don't know if it matters. The debauchery level is probably pretty high at both after hearing some stories about what happened over in Canton as well. But Sharp Clark and I held down the fort last week.

You missed a fun one. You missed the AFC East. It's a good one. I think you were dodging Patriots thoughts there. But come back in for the AFC South. Clark, how are we doing today, buddy? Good. I'm also recovering.

I don't live as much of a debaucherous lifestyle as Connor does, but I've been sick recently. So to the extent that I cough a couple of times throughout the episode, I apologize. Go let it pass. I'm recovering, living my best life yesterday of just running around the lovely Olympia Fields Country Club, getting to rub elbows with lots of golfers that I like to bet on people in the industry a very quiet you know pre-tournament round and uh looking to have some fun over there this weekend but uh yeah out in the sun get to meet manolo i mean i don't know if you're in the uh you know instagram streets and you know golf tips manolo is my as a hero and an icon so i got to hang out with my guy yesterday for a little bit so So back to football though,

AFC South, not an exciting division, but one we have to address and someone's going to win it. Uh, at least one team. Uh, so we will, uh, dive into that here as we keep the train rolling.

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cheap, or you can just head over to 444.com slash plans, sub there, but jump in the show notes. You can get cheaper access through a bet MGM, a sub, Vivid Picks, which is a pick and partner that we have too. All that info is down there in the show notes. Again, AFC South is where we're at now. We did the AFC East last week, but the NFC stuff's all in the books. So you can check that out too on YouTube or in the podcast form, or you can head over to the site. You can read all of Clark's thoughts on the divisions that we've already talked through. Same for me as well. If you want to get a little bit more long-winded written takes for those as well. All right. AFC South guys, they face the AFC North and the NFC South from a divisional standpoint. So again, NFC South, also one of the weaker divisions too.

So they face those clubs. They rotate through the AFC East and AFC West, along with the NFC West for their unique three. We start with, well, someone has to be the favorites here. We start with the Jags, who were really popular early when kind of stuff first posted this season, where they were at price-wise. That's kind of shifted a little bit in terms of where they're at now. 30-1 to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings and MGM. They are 14-1 everywhere to win the AFC.

This division price, the best number is minus 155. That's available on DraftKings, FanDuel, and MGM. Win total, 9.5. That's available on DraftKings, FanDuel, and MGM. Win total, 9.5. It's just to the over. And Caesars is out to a flat 10 at plus 115. Clark, I'm going to kick it to you. Let you get started on the Jags. Yeah, I really like the Jaguars.

I mean, I liked them last year. I thought that they, like, look, my approach is very holistic and qualitative. And so there's a lot of people trying to poke holes in the Jaguars and talk about you know well their offensive line doesn't look that good and they're missing Cam Robinson for the first six weeks and you know how good can they really be with their offensive line and point to like some of the favorable matchups they had last year I think they closed the season with three straight you know very easy matchups but the bottom line is Trevor Lawrence is a legit

elite quarterback. He is elite at evading pressure and sacks. He has elite ball placement, elite vision, decision-making, all the things that make a quarterback great. He made some key mistakes in high leverage situations last year that bring down some of his EPA per play numbers. But overall, he's the kind of player who is on the trajectory to becoming a year in, year out, playoff contending quarterback. And I think people don't really view him that way yet for some reason. And I think Calvin Ridley potentially unlocks that for him. We saw Josh Allen take a massive leap when Stefan Diggs joined the team, and we saw Jalen Hurts take a massive leap when A.J. Brown joined the team. I think Calvin Ridley, when healthy and focused is the quality of receiver that can have that impact on a quarterback. And so we've

seen Trevor Lawrence where his wide receiver one was Christian Kirk, who is not a wide receiver one. He's fine. You know, his wide receiver two was what like Zay Jones or, you know, Evan Ingram, maybe Marvin Jones. He had, you know, for a year, like these guys are not difference makers. Calvin Ridley is. And so what that does is it not only gives him a elite route running number one option for a guy who can really place the ball when guys get open, but that also shifts guys like Christian Kirk into a much more comfortable role as the number two guy. This is going to have massive positive impacts on this offense.

And I think if anyone can handle a mediocre offensive line, it's a type of player like Trevor Lawrence that has that ability. So I'm really excited about this offense. I think the defense is below average, but an elite offense and a below average defense is a blueprint that works in today's NFL. And so I have no doubts that the Jaguars are a legitimate team that can compete in the AFC.

Yeah, Connor, they were a top 10 offense in every meaningful metric last season. And I agree. And I know you agree too, with the dynamic we've talked about it in multiple shows, multiple written pieces, you know, we're obviously doing a main event draft where there was a lot of Calvin Ridley talk. And I think Clark did a great job kind of laying it out it's not just what really does it's kind of how he allows everyone else to shift in a more natural role again you want to buy into an ascending quarterback situation here with trevor lawrence and then the coach too we believe in in doug peterson um so yeah the offense i think kind of hits the ground running continues

what do you think about the jacks as each day goes by i become more and more sad that we did not take calvin ridley instead took fucking josh jacobs oh god i mean i just i don't know what we're doing here um so yeah i think the jags overall though offensive line i think is a little bit of a question mark especially given the suspension to cam robinson i think that's kind of like i anticipated them being like middle of the pack you know this year but without him it's just a little bit dicier now that being said to clark's point like some quarterbacks especially given the weapons they have can overcome bad offensive line, but I mean, Joe Burrow has done it for, you know, years prior. Uh, and so I think that

he's in a spot here where like Clark said, like Trevor Lawrence is like the truth. You know, if he can kind of smooth out some of the bumps there, which I think Calvin Ridley will help, like he is awesome. And my only question would be the kind of defensively for this team. Like they have some good players, but similar to some of the other teams we talked about, like, you know, Tyson Campbell,

um, for you, Sal Aloua Khan, Noonan's boy, uh, you know, and then Josh Allen are all like really key fundamental players at different positions.

But then there's just a lot of guys who were role players, but don't always play well enough. And so like, I think if they're able to piece that together, I mean, they're a very legitimate Super Bowl contender. And if they can't, like to Clark's point, they're just going to have to rely like heavily on their offense and then some up and down games from their defense.

And I think that that's okay, especially given their division right now. So we'll get a minus 155 for the division. That's probably how I would play it. If you do want to play the Jags, you can also play an alternate over of like 10 and a half wins. But I mean, I think that the division winner here could easily win with like nine, nine-ish wins. So you're kind of getting a discount price on like almost like an over eight and a half here instead of a nine and a half, in my opinion. Yeah. I think a lot

of it comes down to the offensive line. I think you both made good points too. Like if we are believing in Trevor Lawrence, there's a chance that he can, even if they are taking a step back, even if, you know, Anton Harrison doesn't step in right away as a rookie and hold down the forward. If Walker Little is what he's been so far in the league, that's a little harder, but I think everything else around there and the running back situation is a little bit better too. I think Tank Bigsby, I think adds an element to what they could do with Travis Etienne.

You want to buy into the offense. So defense, you guys said it. I mean, they're running it back 100%. So there's something to be said for continuity, but you'd love to see them take advantage. They had the easiest schedule of opponents last season defensively in who they faced. And they were 26th in defensive DVOA on the year.

They did a really poor job at converting pressure into sacks. And they've spent a lot of draft capital up front. I mean, Trayvon Walker, the first pick in the draft, Josh Allen was a top 10 pick a couple of years prior. Lujan is amazing back-to-back leader in tackles, but that's not typically enough to get it done defensively. That's a bug, not a feature, I guess you would say at that point. Like, you know, just raw tackle numbers are not enough. So they need to step up there. From a interdivision schedule,

obviously they benefit from playing everyone else here, you know, six games there, games against the NFC South, but they are a unique three, playing a first place schedule, tough. They host Kansas City and francisco and they go at buffalo so significantly harder than any of the afc south piers the i think people were on them about like hey they didn't really do much this offseason but like ridley counts to me like yeah they made that move wisely looking ahead so yeah they kind of stood still this offseason but

like i feel like everyone has been trying to find reasons why it's not the Jags. And I think you hear a lot of content around divisional previews or read stuff, and it's like, well, who other than the Jags can do this? And it's like, I think you're trying too hard. If you're trying to find reasons that it's not the Jags, trying to shoehorn in a case for the Titans or the Colts or the Texans, I think is getting a little too fancy.

I want to believe in a quarterback that I think is ascending, who has better weapons, who has an elite top 10 offense. I mean, the Jags offense is the best unit by far of any unit in this division on either side of the ball. And we knowing that offense is something that can be a little bit more sticky. I kind of want to buy into that. So obviously we missed some of the early numbers, but I think it's that can be a little bit more sticky, I kind of want to buy into that. So obviously we missed some of the early numbers, but I think it's kind of dropped a little bit

where everyone's trying to find reasons not to back the Jags. So Clark, have you gone to the window or is there a way to take action on the Jags with the current prices in the market? No, I don't like laying juice on futures typically unless I feel really strongly about the price. And I think the Jaguars are correctly favored, but at feel really strongly about the price. And I think the Jaguars are correctly favored, but at minus 155 in the division, you're just, everything has to

go right. You know, like people get injured, things happen in the course of an NFL season. And so when you take out all those outcomes, yes, it's a great price. Like assuming none of those things happen. You know, Calvin Ridley also like has had some off field issues has, you know, he, there's not a guarantee that he's going to be playing 17 games at a hundred percent. Like there's just some things that I have to see. And, and like you said, like the offense, flying defense are question marks. And that, that out of division schedule is brutal. You know, Kansas city, Buffalo, San Francisco might be the toughest combination of non-divisional opponents anyone faces. So there's so many reasons to maybe stay away from the number.

What I can't do is bet against them in season-long markets because you're basically then betting on something unexpected happening. If no major injuries happen and they are who we think they are, there's a greater than 50% chance they're going to win 10 or more games. So you're just basically just betting on negative variance, and that's not a bet I like to make. Connor, have you placed a bet or looking to bet on the Jags? I didn't bet Jags division or anything specifically,

but I've talked about it before. Calvin Ridley alternate overs are absolute money. 20 to one right now in draft Kings for 1500 plus receiving yards. You can get like plus three 50 at 1250 plus receiving yards. And I bet him to lead the league in receiving. I think that was like 40 to one or something at this point. Just maximizing your potential winnings on like his range of outcomes. I think he's pretty, a pretty sharp move here because I mean,

he could have an absolute massive season. He also could not, but I just think that in this spot here, as Clark laid out, like he's a true difference maker. He is a guy that has been, you know, nothing but good reports since coming back as his head on straight. And a lot of that stuff I think matters kind of the, you kind of the ancillary stuff we don't talk about as much. But good player coming back and motivated is a guy I want to bet on with an ascending quarterback like Trevor Lawrence.

Yeah, ascending quarterback and a guy who wins in a nowadays what is a unique way, winning on the outside, whereas guys so often now and wisely as the game has evolved and offensive coordinators have evolved you know it's easier you're more likely to get you know you throw a seedy lamb in the slot you're going to occasionally get them on a linebacker or you know safety um the fact that really can dominate at the outside that just doesn't happen as often nowadays that shows that there's a different level of ceiling here and it could be a just a wide receiver quarterback pairing here that we want to buy into so yeah i'm i'm in on jags personally and we will get to that do this like

i just don't think that there's another team that makes sense like you're really trying too hard in my opinion if you think that there's another team now there's a range of outcomes injury wise or things that can happen where another team can win this division. But as currently constructed with what we know heading into the season, I think it's really hard to confidently back another team. We'll take the next team on the board here, and that is the Tennessee Titans on a significant drop-off when you see some of these prices. Now, when you look at what we talked about last week with the AFC East, you have a handful of teams like they were basically 20 or shorter to win

the Super Bowl and single digits for the most part to win the conference. Now we're shifting in a spot where all these teams, the Titans, the Colts, and the Texans are all 101 plus, some of the longest shots in the conference to win the Super Bowl. So I think having that as context, I think matters too. So 100 on Caesars for the Titans to win the Super Bowl, 60 there as well to win the AFC. Best division price on Tennessee, plus 350 on DraftKings. Seven and a half is the win total, slightly juiced to the over. There's some optimism in the market when we had the initial news with DeAndre Hopkins coming over.

And look, we have to give credit where credit is due. Mike Vrabel continues to get more out of the roster than what appears on paper every single year. You can make the argument that he did it again last year, though it was the first time in years that the Titans were not in the playoffs. There were a ton of injuries here. Ryan Tannehill missed some time. Most of the starters did as well.

There's just that exposed a lack of talent and lack of depth. And 2023 is a new year, Connor. I don't anticipate a wildly different outcome though. Yeah, we played an under seven and a half pretty early on. And then they went on side. DeAndre Hopkins, which I think was pretty interesting signal of like, hey, we're not tanking, you know, we're not going to fold, which I think that we thought at that time was a pretty realistic outcome

in terms of their range of outcomes here, because they're underdogs in six straight games heading into their bye. Now, I think there's one or two games in there that they probably win. They have a game against Indy that they're technically underdogs that I don't really think should be the case, to be honest. But just in general, they have a really, really hard early season schedule. If we're looking at that specifically, you know, at New Orleans against the Chargers, at Cleveland, against Cincinnati, at Indy, and then against Baltimore. So before they're by, I mean, even this with the addition of Hopkins one in five, two and four is very,

very reasonable. I think it's, you know, to start the season here. Now that being said, the reason that I think that is because Titans look who they lost this season. They lost their right guard, Nate Davis, Robert Woods, DeMarcus Walker, David Long Jr., Austin Hooper, Dennis Daly, and Taylor LeJuan. Hooper and Walker were the only ones in that group to play less than 60% of the snaps last year. We have the Titans offensive line ranked 31st. Ryan Tannehill was mobile-ish, but I don't think he's mobile enough to really kind of dodge this offensive line issue here. And if we look at how they wanted to play or have played successfully in the past, it's been run the ball really well, dominate time of possession,

and then lean on a defense that's able to stop the run and then create pressure on the end. And now I think there's a big question here is whether the offensive line can hold up. And I know where we're going to disagree here is on the defense. So for me specifically on this defense, I'm a little bit worried about the secondary and kind of like their backend here, 28th in EPA per play, 27th in explosive pass rate last year and 28th in DVOA, but they were first in run defense. Their front seven is really strong. But if we look at like kind of their, their backend here, I'm just not really sure that it's set up for success considering they made basically zero additions to the secondary here. So like it puts them in an interesting spot where if they fall behind or if, you know, someone exposes their secondary, are they in a position to like pass their way out of that? You know, with just Traylon Burks, I would have said a hundred percent. No. Now with Deandre Hopkins and Traylon Burks, who has already gotten injured, I think the answer is kind of maybe. So I would still lean under seven and a half at plus money.

It's not a group, like,'s not a look that I love anymore because I think there's less of a chance of them just completely folding midseason. But I think that this 7.5 is going to be a tough uphill sledding here unless they're able to get a lot of their offensive line or the defense is truly, I would say, their secondary takes a step forward. Yeah, you mentioned the schedule.

I mean, they rotate home and road, but all the home games are the hardest of the bunch. I mean, they host the Chargers, but all the road, all the home games are the hardest of the bunch. I mean, they host the Chargers, the Bengals and the Ravens. That's a really tough start. I do agree with you. Like the move does signal the Hopkins move does signal that they are that they are in here. But I mean, maybe there's some things that come of way with the coordinator change. Tim Kelly is talking about wanting to play faster, wanting to pass more, but man,

the offensive line is a real, real question mark. You know, adding the Skronsky early in the draft, but he's playing guard. Like how much of a difference can he make? Like Andrew Dillard? Yeah. They signed him from Philly. He played 3% of the snaps for Philly last year. It's not like they poached a starter off of Philly's offensive line. Dillard couldn't crack that starting lineup last year. So there are a lot of question marks here that I have concerns with. And Tannehill, look, it was obviously it was tough when we got into the back end of the season. We had Malik Willis starts and Josh Dobbs starts and it was ugly. But the offensive line did a poor job protecting the quarterback.

They were 29th in adjusted sack rate allowed. And the interesting thing too, Tannehill getting up there a little bit, 35, I think he turns 36 in the season. His pressure to sack rate jumped up last season to 24.4%. That's about 10% higher than it was just two seasons ago. Again, like we saw with Tom Brady here at the end where he just, you couldn't get the ball out quick he was just like tucking and getting down you know i'm do not hit me um i'm you know not looking to uh be drinking out of a straw after i retire like to be able to walk around for the rest of my life and i think there's something to

be said of also having like the inability to be sure the guys are going to be open like deandre hopkins like yeah he's still really good is he a separator i don't know is traylon burks like a separator at the line of scrimmage those things worry me too about him getting the ball out quickly and that's not been a skill of tannahill early in his career so clark what are your thoughts on tennessee i'm much more optimistic than you guys are um I think they're a pretty good team overall. Now, I will recognize the offensive line is a massive question. And if the offensive line is at the low end of its range of outcomes, then none of this will matter.

They're not really doing anything this year. That's totally true. Derrick Henry is a type of running back, even if he's still as good as he always has been, which we have no reason to think he's not. But at some point, he will start to just running back's age, right? But assuming that Derrick Henry is who he is, he's the type of player that benefits so much from building up momentum as he approaches the line of scrimmage and gets a couple of yards past it. And so it becomes harder and

harder to tackle him the longer he's been running. And so if your offensive line sucks and you're able to get to him in the backfield, like before he's picked up that momentum, it really has an impact on Derrick Henry's rushing ability. So that's a potential problem. One thing I liked that they did last year was get him more involved in the passing game, screens, et cetera, get him an open space where he has that room to build up that acceleration. If they continue to do that, I think that can offset some of the offensive line concerns. But I really, really like their defense. I mean, they're like you mentioned, Connor, that

their secondary was bad last year, they were injured, you know, significant injuries throughout the year, especially towards the late part of the year. And they added Sean Murphy bunting from the Bucs. And so I think that can help their depth. Their front seven is monstrous. They're, you know, hopefully getting Harold Landry back healthy. They did lose David Long, which matters, but they got Aziz Alshair and Arden Key to help fill those gaps. So I'm really optimistic about their defense overall.

I'm not worried about their secondary. I mean, I think they really focused on stopping the run, maybe too much last year. So hopefully they can fix that. But this Titans team is a tough well-coached team and like we you know they have a tough schedule coming out the gate but they've been giant killers in the past i remember in 2021 you know they weren't that good of a team but they beat the bills and then they destroyed kansas city and then they beat the rams who ended up winning

the super bowl um last year they took the chiefs to overtime with malik willis like quarterback like they play up to the level of competition for the most part. So I think that they're going to be a feisty team, not a team I'm looking to fade. And I think the concern I have is their lack of depth, right? So Traylon Burks is injured right now. We don't know how long he's going to be out, but that just kind of shows how thin this team is because now you're like, oh, no Traylon Burks, who isn't even that big of a player, but he's crucial to a team that has not much offensive weaponry. You know, now we're relying on DeAndre Hopkins. You know, who knows if he'll stay healthy.

This could get really ugly really fast on the offensive side of the ball. So if I'm playing the Titans, it's going to be much more trying to capture the wider outcomes. Like, you know, division plus 350 looks like a decent bet in terms of if you think that something negative is going to happen to the Jaguars I think the Titans are the only logical uh replacement for division winner so that's how I'd be looking to play them optimistically yeah your points on the the injuries on the defensive side of the ball are 100% worth noting football outsiders captures adjusted games lost due to injury the Titans had 85.6 adjusted games lost due to injury on the defensive side alone that was by far 25 more adjusted games lost than any other team on the defensive side of the ball so they were significantly hampered by that but i'm concerned with connor especially with the way the games play

nowadays like they've drafted a lot of early talent in the back half kristen fulton caleb farley uh roger m McCreary in the second round was a really nice player for them last year. They need those guys to continue to ascend because I'm a little worried about the pass rush too. I don't know that they have an elite pass rush. So yeah, they're great at stopping the run, but again, that doesn't really hold water as much anymore

the way the game's played nowadays. So they need some of those guys to step up a little bit. Vrabel is the thing, though, right? That is why we should all be paused on any full fade with the way that the Titans are playing. Because I agree, they are feisty. They do typically play up the talent. Look, I mean, they were the number one seed a couple years ago. No one thought they were the top team in the conference.

But they just kept winning games, and no one thought they were going to win. So I think Frabel deserves something for us to be a little bit – pump the brakes here, but Connor, seven and a half, I know we took the play early. Where are you at with that now? Yeah, I mean, if you missed it earlier, I think I would probably just hold at this point. I mean, I think there's just a little bit too much uncertainty.

In the back half of the schedule, like if they start three and three in the first six games, that's like a massive win. I mean, because the back half of the schedule is like, you know, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Indy, Houston twice, you know, like there's a lot of very winnable games there that as long as their core is intact, they can easily win. If their core is not intact, then, you know, I think that changes the dynamic of everything. So everything so yeah we'll see i think just a lot of it depends early on in the season honestly how things go yeah that's that's that's fair i just you know i also think that um i don't know tan hill was decent last year but i also could see that ending quickly and then you know if burks goes down or hopkins to like man kyle phillips and like racy mcmath become prominent players

pretty quickly and that's uh that's a tough place to be all right next the uh colts see our colts prices um super bowl 150 to 1 draft kings and mgm to win the afc they are 80 on caesars 7 to 1 on caesars to win the division and their win total six and half, slightly juiced to the over. This is not fair to the Jags, but the Colts of 2022 were essentially the Jags this year, where it was like, man, that number raced out. They were like, hey, we needed someone to win this division. People were looking for reasons to fade the Titans. Oh, we added another quarterback, carousel of one-year quarterbacks, Matt Ryan.

We got a nice running game. Defense is solid. Like they were clear top dog in the division. And that went downhill quickly. We saw the Ryan Daniel was, you know, Matt Ryan was not that guy anymore. Frank Wright lost his job.

All of a sudden, Jeff Saturday got involved. It was a very ugly season, Clark, for the Colts. I'm going to let you get started with this one for Andy. I'm not optimistic on the Colts. I think Anthony Rich— Okay, let's talk about Anthony Richardson starting week one. That's been announced now.

Yeah, let's talk about it. I think that's potentially the right decision for the Colts, and I'm not typically a let the rookie sit kind of guy that we'll talk about that when we get to Houston. But for Anthony Richardson, all reports are that he's handling things so maturely and like level headed. When he makes mistakes, he's like not getting too down about it. He's like really processing well. And so the fear with starting a rookie quarterback right out the gate is that that pressure is too much. And we've seen it happen with guys like David Carr. Like, you know, they get sacked a bunch of times that their mental game gets messed up and they just never pan out, right? Like, I don't think we have that much fear with Anthony Richardson, one, because of his mental game and two, because of his, the way that he's playing, like his mobility, the RPOs they can do to set up some easier plays for him to run.

I think all that's great. What I'm concerned about is how effective they'll be on offense overall, right? Like Anthony Richardson is starting because he needs reps because he only had one year as a full-time starter in college. And in that year, he threw 53% of it. He completed 53% of his passes. And I get that a lot of that is the style, a lot of downfield shots, but it also demonstrates a lack of consistency from play to play. And what I saw in the preseason game, that's all we have to go off is the Colts did not put him in a position where he had to line up on third down and pass for a first down. The Colts had a third and three, and they ran the ball.

A third and three, and he got sacked, and there was a penalty. A third and two, and they ran the ball. Fourth and one, and they ran the ball. Third and 16, and he passed short of the six for eight yards. So never was he put in a position where he had to convert a third down on a pass play. And that's only a five-play sample size, but to me it indicates that Shane Steichen is trying to do what he did with the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, which was this sort of let's get close to the line of scrimmage and then just kind of pound it until we get past the line of scrimmage and then keep going.

And the problem is the Colts offensive line is not the Eagles offensive line. Jalen Hurts is not Anthony Richardson. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are not the receivers the Colts have. This is a downgrade in every sense of the word. And so I just think this is going to be a, a kind of slow going growth process for Anthony Richardson. I think it's going to be great long-term. Like, you know, we'll see, I think by the end of the year, they'll kind of have a sense of where he's going and hopefully this year we'll give him the experience he needs. But I just don't think this is a year where the Colts are realistically thinking about winning. Especially now you've got the stuff with Jonathan Taylor. It's just, there's a lot of bad juju in that, you know, on the team. And I just think this is a, I think this is a sort of quote unquote rebuild year where

the Colts reset the direction and not a year where they're really prioritizing winning every game. That's, that's kind of how I view this team. There's good jujus. Juju Brents, the cornerback from Kansas state is going to be asked to be, I don't know. I love Juju Brents, the cornerback from Kansas State. It's going to be asked to be on. I love Juju Brents coming out. But Connor, I'll let you piggyback on the anti, but I'm assuming it's going to be anti-Anthony Richardson steam here.

Yeah, so prior to hopping on, I bet the Colts have the worst record in the NFL. It's 15-1 right now at FanDuel. I think if you look at some of the other similar prospects in terms of Anthony Richardson, we're looking at a guy like Josh Allen, I think is a really similar case, kind of played, didn't have the greatest counting stats, but was very toolsy, was big, kind of had that outcome. He was legitimately bad as a rookie. He is now awesome, but he was very bad. 53, I think, percent completion rate was turning the ball over a bunch. I think he had a lot of

issues as a rookie. They're also looking at Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson in recent years. Now, those are some of the downside scenarios here, but a lot of those guys were better college passers than a guy like Anthony Richardson. When I watched him at Florida, it was just really inconsistent. It was like he'd make an insane throw. He'd be able to do, you know, like a, whatever, jump spin and then like run for a touchdown or throw, make a throw insane. Right. But on a level, like a week to week basis coming in as a rookie with an offensive line, that's middling at best with potentially not without Jonathan Taylor. Um, and then a wide receiver core that I think I'm significantly down on compared to Noonan with a guy like Josh

Downs, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman. Two of those guys are just incredibly raw and Josh Downs and Alec Pierce that maybe have upside, but we don't really know. And then a guy like Michael Pittman who is fine, but I think showed some issues like separating on a consistent basis last year. And so, you know, I think in this spot here with all of those factors, like it's really tough for me to envision a guy like Anthony Richardson, like just being good, good from the get-go. And I think that's kind of my issue overall. And then the defense specifically lost to find Gilmore around Rodney McLeod will likely be playing three cornerbacks, rookie corners, Juju Brent, Starius Rush, and Jalen Jones. And then maybe Kenny Moore was 96 out of 118 corners.

I mean, they're favored in just three games this season. And we've already seen like Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are the number one overall pick, got Trayvon Walker, Justin Fields and the Bears are the number one overall pick. Like good quarterbacks, even if like Anthony Richardson does play well, can still end up with like the number one, number two, number three overall pick. So if you're giving me 15 to one on a team that I think is going to be bottom, you know, five-ish i'm going to take it every time all right um you guys make great points like you know i i'm very

very bullish on anthony richardson um long term i'm probably more bullish in the short term but i think that you know your takes are all measured and and sound so i think we we forget like so steichen before he was with philly was with the chargers and it's very easy now to think about who justin herbert is justin herbert was a much heralded prospect in comparison even like richardson but then like the last nine like last year at oregon it wasn't great right Right. So there were question marks coming into who Justin Herbert was going to be in the pros. And the fact that he hit the ground running with Shane Steichen and what they were able to do in Philadelphia, wisely building that offense, just the way that they would, you know, put plays together.

And again, like Clark did a great job. It's just such a night and day difference with the talent. The offensive line is way different. You don't have like, I think AJ Brown devonta smith is like the best one to do in the league he does not have that with whatever you think of these these weapons there for sure so it's you know it's hard to draw those those parallels i believe in steichen in a massive way um clark touched on it a little bit i think that there's a lot of noise inciting a 53.5% completion percentage for Anthony Richardson.

I wrote about him right after the draft, used some heat charts. When you look at how they used him, it was down the field, vertical, and outside the boundaries. And it's just not – no one's set up to win that way. There were no layups schemed in that offense for Anthony Richardson. The layups were him tucking and running because the guy's faster than Justin Jefferson and he's built like TJ Watt. And we just don't really see that very often in this league.

It's really Cam Newton to a degree and Josh Allen for sure. But Anthony Richardson's even bigger and faster than those guys. He is somewhat of a one-of-one in terms of just physical raw skills. You know, was it Raz football, you know, with his relative athletic score? He is off the charts. He is the best athlete that they have charted since they've been doing this.

It's absolutely insane. I do believe a little bit more in some of the talent on the offensive side. I do think the offensive line has improved. I think they drafted Bernard Raymond in the second round last year who fell due to medical concerns. Played really well last year.

He could slide in a left tackle. We've seen the boost historically that running backs get with playing with a rushing quarterback. I do think the Jonathan Taylor stuff kind of susses itself out here. Like, Alfred Morris was beyond just a guy. But you put him in the backfield with a young, spry, healthy Robert Griffin III, and all of a sudden, like, Alfred Morris was running for like 1,400 yards, and they were a playoff team out of nowhere just because of the threat of Anthony Richardson.

And you saw that in the first game, too. I'm sure Clark saw that, too, watching that game. Buffalo didn't really react to anything. They were waiting to see if Richardson was going to tuck it and run. And that's just second half second delay allows the lineman to get to the second level, the block. It just, there's a different threat of the run here. So I'm bullish that Steichen is going to be able to get more out of Richardson sooner. And I think that the ceiling of Richardson, we just didn't see it with the way that Florida called offense as the team as

a whole. I have massive concerns about the defense. The front seven is really good. The secondary is a problem. And again, like Isaiah Rogers is suspended due to violation of the gambling policy. Stephon Gilmore, not where he was before, but losing him is massive. Again, it's like the anti-Calvin Ridley thing. There's just a trickle down effect of where everyone slides to where they shouldn't be. The safety room is pretty poor.

So like, yeah, I like Juju Brents as a prospect. Should it be coming in and getting like day one starts? That's a little bit nerve wracking. If you're going to be bullish on the Colts, here's my pushback though. The schedule,

there are multiple hidden advantages in the schedule here. They have the third easiest schedule overall in the league. They play New England in London, so they only have seven true road games. They also have a couple of unique things that Cleve Tia pointed out as well in his preview. They host two teams from Western time zones, the Rams and the Raiders, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back on short rest because they're coming off of Monday night football games. And the Rams and Raiders, when you look at their schedule, those are kind of coin toss games. They also have a game against the Bucs at home. The Bucs are coming off of a West Coast trip from Tampa Bay to San Francisco.

So that's a nice little thing in their schedule-wise. So there's just a few of those in there that work in their advantage that you typically don't see. And again, like those schedule things, I know Clark's talked about some of that not mattering at the end of the year but like week to week those things i think matter a little bit and i think clark touched on that too so then there's weak nuanced in terms of the schedule uh that i think adds their their advantage i have concerns about the defense so like betting the colts no but i'm more optimistic overall than you guys are cl Clark, have you bet anything? I know Connor took the worst team in the league angle.

Any thoughts that you have in terms of how to bet the Colts? Yeah, I played there under six and a half wins just straight up. It was plus 115 or plus 121 when I bet it. I think now you can get plus 105 still. It's kind of come down a little bit. I think the market agrees that Anthony Richardson starting week one is not necessarily positive for this season's outlook. But I still think there's value there.

Anything above plus 100 for under six and a half wins. It's just getting to seven wins is possible. Like you said, there's some scheduled things that might go their way. But you're talking about a 50-50 proposition at plus 100. And I think it's less than 50 that they get to seven or better. Yeah. I just like that the schedule things happen in matchups

that they are like coin flips to win anyway. You know, getting some of those things against some of the tougher matchups probably wouldn't matter. But, you know, Rams, Raiders, Bucks, those are games on their schedule. If they're going to even sniff six, seven wins, they'd probably have to take care of those games too so yeah what what worries me specifically about what i said

earlier about you know they ran on fourth and one and they they got stuffed they failed um and and like if they're planning on running the eagles offense that relies on a lot of short conversions on third and fourth and one i don't think they have an offensive line for it. And so then you're relying on Anthony Richardson on key third downs, passing the ball. I think those high leverage moments are not going to be where the Colts shine. I think when they win, it's going to have to be a kind of a slow drum roll where they're consistent and avoiding mistakes. And Anthony Richardson is not panic throwing easy picks like he did

in the preseason. So I just think that's not something that i can bank on seven times this year the uh the comp that you had i thought was pretty interesting rg3 is probably like the ultimate bull case right it's like that he ends up being like that dual threat mobile guy but i mean i just don't think it can be understated like rg3 was so so so much better of a passer in college than sure than anthony richardson i meant about how the rushing quarterback to the running game goes. Right.

And it's in the range of outcomes. We've seen it happen. It can happen. It's just like when I think about all these guys, who should I comp them to? I just struggle to get to those guys because I'm like, man, I just don't know if he can do it at this point.

So that's kind of where I run into the issues is like, okay, well, maybe it could happen because there are some good scheduling outfits, but it's, yeah, it's a tough, it's just a tough sell for me for this Colts team. And they do get the Rams early too. It's like week four. So I think we kind of talked, touched on that on our NFC West episode is that if you're going to play the Rams, playing them late is probably massively advantageous at this

point early. Maybe there's some hope. Yeah. But I get the Rams coming to Indy after playing on Monday Night Football and short rest. That helps a little bit too. But I agree with you. I'd much rather play the Rams

later in the season. I think the other thing we overrate with quarterbacks that have elite mobility is we think that that is going to be a positive in terms of extending plays. But athleticism has nothing to do with taking sacks, right? Justin Fields takes more sacks

than any quarterback in the league. And he more sacks than any quarterback in the league. And he's arguably the most athletic quarterback in the league. It has to do with decision-making anticipation, reading defenses, making quick decisions. And so I worry that Richardson is going to be more on the Justin Fields track, especially early where like he has incredible looking plays, but on a play-to-play basis just costs his team and too many, too many key spots.

It's going to be like a throw into the dirt, you know, throw over some guys' head and then like a 15 yard scramble where he jukes three guys. And then it'll be an interception. You know, that's like, like, it's going to be a wild ride. Like I'm, I'm here for it and I'm excited, but it's going to be very interesting. Yeah. It's gonna be fun to watch. I'm not, I want to like, you know, make sure that I just put a bow in this. I'm not off super optimistic that the, I don't think that the Colts are a threat to beat the Jags bow on this. I'm not super optimistic that the – I don't think that the Colts are a threat to beat the Jags in this division. I don't hate Connor's play, especially at 15-1,

partially because the wide range of outcomes on Richardson, I'm more optimistic, but the defense is going to be, I think, a problem. Yannick Ngakwe's move, they should have just picked him up. He just signed with Chicago last week. They don't really have much in terms of pass rush. They need Quidipe to step up. They need to get a lot from DeForest Buckner and some spots where they don't typically generate pass rush

from the edge here. So they did a decent job of it last year, but Gawkway is gone. So there are definitely concerns in pass to this team being pretty poor. Josh Downs, like they needed speed. So like you might not like Josh Downs, but like it's just Alec Pierce and, you know, Jelani Woods and Mo Ali Cox. And like those guys are just big. Like they just drafted big athletes, but no real speed.

So they needed a Josh Downs. They needed someone that could play the slot and separate and, you know, maybe create the ability to have some layups for for anthony richardson who again didn't get him at florida either so again i agree with you guys the wide range of outcomes is definitely a thing he's going to be fun to watch it's going to be painful to watch like you know it's one of those things like out of context you're going to be able to clip some really ugly throws at times and then like the pro anthony richards people are going to be able to get him trucking linebackers, you know,

doing things like that too. So it's the future. At least they, again, are moving away from this like Maryville round of, you know, Phillip rivers and all this basically like post Andrew luck quarterback situation.

I like the marriage of Steichen and Richardson long-term. I believe in it. They can kind of support them over the years. I think it's going to be, you know, there'll at least be competition to Jacksonville as they ascend over the next few years. All right, we'll move on to the Texans, and we will wrap up the AFC South Texans.

201 everywhere, 201 everywhere to win the Super Bowl, 100 to win the conference here on Caesars. They are 10 to 1 on FanDuel to win the division, and 6.5 is the win total, which is juiced to the under. Lovey Smith, big F you to everyone in Houston there at the end with just a wild, wild end of the season for the 20 conversion with less than a minute ago to hand the bears, the first pick in the draft.

Just Texas has really lacked identity since the whole Deshaun Watson debacle. Moving forward, D'Amico Ryan's bringing back one of their former players coming over from San Francisco, leading the defense for a couple years, giving them a nice long leash, big contract, lots of time to operate, and instilling – they didn't get the first pick in the draft, but they got the second pick in the draft. And they made a draft. They trade to get grabbed number three there too.

So CJ Stroud to anchor your offense and will Anderson jr. To anchor your defense, Connor, hopefully just gives again, the Texans a little bit of identity moving forward. Yeah. I'm a little bit excited about them. I think that there's some positive factors here. One with D'Amico Ryanans, I think as a pretty strong coach, kind of a man of the people coach, but it also is legitimate defensive coordinator experience. He's not just like a Dan Campbell guy. I think that in this spot here, pairing him with

Bobby Sloak Jr., former PFF employee, was grounded on the Twitter streets just a couple of years ago, now is up and at him as the offensive coordinator. And I think that that's exciting guy comes from the Shanahan tree. Um, and so you're looking at him paired with an offensive line that, I mean, it's going to get injured a little bit right now, but at this point, like I was projecting a pretty middle tier, maybe a team that obviously that could take a step forward at this point, I'm a little bit more pessimistic, but still, if they can get middling offensive line play, you have Robert Woods, you have John Meche, you have Nico Collins, Tank Dell has been getting some hype. I don't know out of those, that crew, if any of them are above, you know, adjust the guy status, but given what we've seen from kind of like the Shanahan-esque schemes, like they're able to get random guys open kind

of at all times. And I think that that's a big key here for this offense. And if that is able to pan out, you pair that with Damian Pierce, you pair that with a little bit of Devin Singletary. I'm not saying they're going to be good offensively, but could they be okay? Could they have a couple of good games on the stretch? I think that that's more than reasonable to potentially suggest. And then defensively, added Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins, Jimmy Ward. If Derek Singley is anyone, last year graded 111th out of 118 corners was not good. Now, that being said, was a third overall pick like last year. So if he's able to be what they thought he was coming out of school, I think that they could be OK.

And like if you put OK on both sides of the ball in this division with the Colts, with the Titans are a little uneven and even the Jaguars, I think of some flaws here and there. Like they're probably not beating the Jags. But again, like a couple wins here and there makes me excited about them. I think this winter will open to five and a half would have loved to have an over at five and a half. Uh, at this point we're looking at six and a half. I think if I can get a straight up versus the Colts, I would take the Texans, uh, like six and a half or just like even money on that. But I think, uh, at this point it's kind of tough team to bet on because they're like, I think I threw in like what, 10 ifs theres there, you know, while I was leading up to the explanation, which is probably too many for me to battle like a binary outcome. Clark, you gave us a little bit of a sprinkle earlier with something, and I want to kind of lead you to water with that because, yeah, having Slow It come over and having someone be part of the kyle shanahan tree is probably is encouraging right like that's a good tree to be coming from but what's the kind

of the common thread of kyle shanahan offenses it's getting the ball out quick processing quick and that is not what we typically have seen this is not fair scouting the helmet of what we've seen from ohio state quarterbacks historically now the offensive line i agree in houston is going to be above average if titus howard comes back and he's okay uh larry mctonnell on the other side like look no one really comes from college to the nfl and has worse tackles and significantly worse passing uh options because look who cj's. Stroud threw to at Ohio State. I mean, first of all, everyone's in love with Marvin Harrison Jr. We had Gary Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jackson Smith and Jigba.

An insane talent that he had at Ohio State. Now, you can put a dress on Tank Bell and whatever you want like whatever you think it's going to be it's not any of that so um is cj stroud a quick processor can cj stroud step into an offense that looks very different than what he had at ohio state which was just let dewan jones and paris johnson protect me i'll wait till one of these four studs gets open because one of them will, two of them probably will. And then I'll just, I'll chuck it downfield to whoever's open. That doesn't work in the NFL.

I'm not sure it works for CJ Stroud. No, and you know, it'll take some years to figure it out, but that we might end up looking back at that receiving core as like an all-time great unit, right? If I'm the Texans, I do not start CJ Stroud week one. I'm not sure that they've made an announcement one way or the other. I think the expectation is that Stroud will start. He's been starting the preseason games. But honestly, I would bench him. And here's why. One, he did not look ready. You know, we've only had one preseason game. We'll see what game two looks like this

weekend. Sure. But this is not the type of situation where I think we need to rush the quarterback to start, because if he's not ready behind an offensive line that is missing one of its best players and Howard early without good receivers, he could just get crushed. And I mentioned David Carr earlier. It's the Texans again, right?

His career could be just taking a really bad start. If he, if he's thrown out on the road against the Ravens, they get the Colts at home, fair enough, but then at the Jags versus Pittsburgh, that's not an easy four-game stretch to start the year. I would roll Davis Mills out there and give CJ Stroud more time to take some of the pressure off. And if the team is bad with Davis Mills in those first four weeks, there's so much less pressure on Stroud, right? For the rest of the year, it's like, oh, well, he just has to be better than Mills was,

and he can get there. On the flip side, I'm not convinced that Stroud is better than Mills. I'm a big Davis Mills fan. I think he has been in tough circumstances and done the best that he can with those circumstances. He didn't take a step forward last year that I would have hoped he would have taken, but I still think there's a chance he could be decent. And so on the flip side, let's say the Texans do play well in those four games, which I think they have a higher chance of doing with Davis Mills and they do a Stroud. Then maybe you keep Mills going and

see if he might be the answer. Like I don't, I wouldn't give up on him right away. And then the other aspect of that is there's no real point in tanking and losing games because they already gave up their first round pick next year. So they pretty much know they're not getting a top quarterback prospect in next year's draft. Like what it would take to trade up to get one of the two guys coming out next year would be insane for them. So they know they're going to have another year with CJ Stroud next year. I say like, don't rush it.

Let him start the second half of the year, build into that next year, and then give him a strong sophomore year to really prove himself. That's kind of how I'd handle this. And I think if you tell me right now that Davis mills is starting week one, then I am more likely to be on the Texans than if you're telling me CJ Stroud is starting. So that's kind of how I view it. I think if the Texans want to win now,

they go mills. And if they want to think long-term, they go mills. We'll see. Maybe they just go Stroud anyway. Yeah. They haven't made that announcement yet, but it feels like it's going to be Stroud, Connor.

Yeah, I would be really, really surprised if they went with, at least long-term. I think they're trying to put him out there week one. I think he would have to be consistently terrible for the next three weeks, next two weeks, for them to consider starting Mills. And then even then, I mean, after the bye, you got to start him probably,

because they're not going to win more than like one or two games here. Cause you'll get an app Baltimore indie. I think it's probably a coin flip. It's like minus one at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh at Atlanta and New Orleans. So I mean, all of those teams are basically at least above average, uh, you know, or like average. And so it's kind of an uphill sledding there. They're three point dogs and all, at least, at least in all of those leading to the buy.

So I don't mind the whole like waiting till the buy thing but i think do you think that they're kind of just going to throw them in the fire and see what happens yeah i don't hate that i just yeah i don't i don't see it partially because of the reason you said it's like hey look we don't benefit from a few losses early in the season because we don't have that first pick anyway so it's like it kind of works both ways where yeah you know that you have them, so you're not really in position to address it. But so you might as well let them go anyway,

because the, you know, possible wins that you would get or losses, how you would win from those early season games doesn't really play out that way. So yeah, it's a, it's a little tricky to me.

It's just six and a half is so much optimism. Like you mentioned Connor five and a half was where we were at, like for a team that just hasn't really been there of late, that's a pretty big jump. I'm also like very bullish on D'Amico Ryans. Like you can get drunk on watching that team and listening to him talk and be like, dang, that's a guy that like he's going to galvanize that locker room.

He's going to be a guy that people want to play for. I think they maybe do a pretty good job in the next couple of years of like bringing in talents, a former player, like that, like rah-rah Dan Campbell vibe, like you mentioned, but maybe, you know, a little bit more experience

in terms of, you know, leading a strong defense for two years in San Francisco, you know, being under Shanahan, getting a sense of how that offense works, being able to poach one of his coordinators and do some of that stuff. So it's probably the guy

that can execute that. I still have concerns there. But, yeah, I mean, I'm interested to see what happens. Again, the defense, they get better, as you mentioned. Like they have a really nice mix of young talent with Anderson, Stingley, Jalen Preacher. He was awesome last year at the safety position. A nice veteran experience with some of the free agent acquisitions.

Not like massive difference makers, but, you know, average to above average talent that can add to that they couldn't stop anyone last year big play wise um were gashed on the ground sheldon reagan's helps uh denzel perriman at linebacker and jimmy ward in the secondary that helps kind of just i think just a little bit better at every level defensively and if they could stop the big plays it could be a league average defense, which again, better than the Colts is I think the point you're making there as well, Connor. So yeah, I mean, I don't know.

I still don't think that six and a half still feels like a lot because I have questions about Stroud just as many as I do about Anthony Richardson. So I can't get in there now. But, you know, Clark, do you have a way to bet the Texans? No, too much uncertainty for me I really do like their defensive pieces and D'Amico Ryan's as a coach so that you know they took the Chiefs to overtime last year too like they can they've got the players on defense especially with the additions and Will Anderson and you know maybe Stingley will take a step forward in year two I know he was bad

as a as a rookie he's still talented so yeah I So yeah, I think there's upside here to be a sort of mildly competitive team, but just with so much uncertainty at the quarterback and offensive coordinator, you know, yeah, it's Shanahan Tree, but we don't really know. Like that doesn't always work out. So yeah, we'll see. I mean, I'm kind of hands off right now. Yeah, so I think there's a couple other notes too. They get to play against Tampa Bay they get to play against tampa bay

get to play against arizona they get to play against indie twice tennessee twice you know like i think there's a couple of interesting pieces here where they like not gimme's obviously but like very very winnable games even if they're not very good and so if they are anything better i think it kind of puts them like squarely in the range to go over or like right at their you know six seven win total there specifically also i do think that cj stroud kind of puts them like squarely in the range to go over or like right at their, you know, six, seven win total there specifically. Also, I do think that CJ Stroud kind of like Justin Fields is going to run a little bit more, uh, in the NFL. We saw him run in high leverage situations in, uh, college, like in, in the bowl games,

which I think is something that we've touched on on this show repeatedly is that like quarterbacks and big games are significantly more likely to run the ball, uh ball because they're just, they want to get it done. Like, you know, they're putting their body on the line. They're not going to throw the ball away. They're just going to put their body in line and try and run and scramble and make things happen. So I think CJ Stroud, who didn't test at the combine, but I think they were projecting like around,

I think his over-under was like 4'8". And I think I bet the under, a lot of people are saying, probably be like a 4'7 kind of guy. It's not super fast, but you know, he's athletic. Yeah athletic so yeah good points yeah i think this is the jags division i think we're trying too hard to find alternatives to that um i think that defense can has question marks too it could take a step forward but yeah i think their offense is the most predictable bankable element to anything in this division just a whole lot of ifs and what ifs and this in the last you know 40 45 minutes of the show because we're trying to find reasons to

see who could be like the the next team and um you know clark a little bit more bullish on the titans than uh than connor and i are um you know interesting dynamic here at the end like connor feels like he's in on the teans a little bit more. I guess I've been stuck holding the torch for the Colts and Clark's in on the Texans, but I think we all agree that the Jags are the play here. And it feels like a one-playoff team division. I don't think we're getting, especially considering the dynamic in the AFC.

All right, gentlemen. Good stuff as always. So don't forget, head over to the site. You can read in more detail Clark's thoughts here on the AFC South, along with all of his other stuff there. Just click on his name and you can get everything that he's written. He's got best bets out there for week one. He's got all of his preseason futures. Again, head over to 444.com and you can read that. Some of that's behind the paywall. So best way to get that is with the betting subscription. Again, jump in the show notes and you can find ways to access that for cheap. So for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks,

everybody. you