Move The Line - Everything You NEED to KNOW About the AFC West | BEST Bets, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: August 31, 2023

Dive deep into the heart of the AFC West with our comprehensive breakdown, covering everything you NEED to know for the upcoming season. From team-by-team analyses to the hottest predictions, we've got you covered. Get the edge on your bets with our expert insights on the best odds for each team, top players to watch, and game outcomes. Whether you're a seasoned sports bettor or just looking for insights on the AFC West's dynamics, this video is your one-stop resource. Tune in to see how we're betting on the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs in 2023! Who's a better bet to win MVP? Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert?0:00 Intro8:46 Kansas City Betting Preview14:26 Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview28:59 Denver Broncos Betting Preview41:35 Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview53:17 Way Too Early Super Bowl Predictions58:28 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

and welcome to move the line i'm ryan noonan joined here as always by my friends connor allen sharp clark to put a bow on our off-season content. The last of the divisional previews, the essentially haze in the barn, they would say at this point. Gentlemen, how are we doing today, Clark? Start with you, buddy. How are we doing? You're not good. You're not good.

You're not ready. Not ready. He's not. He's so ready that he's not ready. He's ready for the show to start, the season to start, but not the show to start. Didn't have his mic plugged in? I mean, is this his first episode or what?

I'm not ready for the podcast. No, I'm ready. The steak is cooked. The cutlery is on the table, and we just need to see some football at this point. I'm ready. I love it. Connor, how we doing, buddy?

Good. I had to hang up the Demarius Thomas jersey prior to the AFC West episode. It's been, I mean, he's easily my favorite player ever. So I had to, you know, get him up there and rest in peace, brother. So, you know, it's no better episode to get him up there today. Not sure I'll be super bullish on the Broncos, but, you know, is what it is at this point. Yeah, we're repping the AFC West strong behind us. We have a little bit of, you know, Broncos.

I got a little bit of Bo Jackson back in the day and the Raiders behind me. We got Patrick Mahomes hanging out in the background for Clark. So sorry to the Chargers fans. One Charger fan that I know of. We're not representing the Chargers fans, one Charger fan that I know of. We're not representing the Chargers very well today. But we're going to represent them strong here in the show. So, again, this is the end of the offseason content, but the in-season content turns up the heat.

We are going to have two episodes of Move the Line each week in season. The three of us will be here every Wednesday at 4 Eastern, talking sides and totals as we typically do. Connor and I will be joined by a guest. News on that very, very shortly. On the prop side, our prop drop show will be on Fridays in the afternoon as well. So subscribe on YouTube, subscribe in podcast form so you don't miss a show. On the YouTube side, it is 444BETS. If you're hanging out with us today, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite look in the AFC West is.

We're excited to really start to unpack actual football games, actual in-game props that we can turn around and bet on here as we get closer here. We're, again, a week away at this point. So really, really excited. And if you have been dragging your toes for some reason this offseason, you decided, hey, look,

Clark continues to fire off all these plus EV offseason futures, which he is on the right side of the number in almost every single of his offseason bets so far. Connor and I have been pumping out stuff as well. You decided, hey, I wanted to pause and wait because I want to get closer to the season.

We are here, folks. It is time to take action. Get the betting sub at 444. You can head over to 444.com slash plans. It gets you access to everything on the site. If for some reason you have your fantasy draft this weekend coming up and you haven't done so, the betting sub is going to help you get all of that rankings, articles, anything that you possibly need, and then gets you into our Discord. You can can ask fantasy questions and that's also where all of our bets are pushed through as well it's the key place to be in season we have a couple of partners uh bet mgm vivid picks all that information's in the show notes if you want to get access to it for cheaper um you haven't been able to take advantage of bet

mgm and sign up you can get a betting sub for 10 bucks if you go ahead and take the deal from bet mgm so i get in there guys again if you've been a procrastinator, now's the time to jump in and get action and take advantage of it. So again, all that deep into the show notes, AFC West last one, if you want to find any of the other previous ones, again, you can find that on YouTube. You can find that in podcast form. Clark and I both have written divisional previews up on the site that are up there, including best bets. Those are free, free content over on 444.com, so go ahead and check that out. We're going to jump into the final division here in the AFC West.

They, from a schedule standpoint, face the AFC East and NFC North. And they're going to rotate through the AFC North, AFC South, and NFC East for their unique three opponents. We will start with our defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. They are 6-1, basically everywhere to win the Super Bowl. To win the AFC and go back to the Super Bowl again, plus 350 available on both FanDuel and Caesars. They are minus 165 on DraftKings to win the division. That's the best number currently in markets. And their win total of 11.5 is juiced slightly to the over.

But look, we were here last year. They're not going to be the same without Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes is great, but look at this receiving core. Travis Kelsey, a year older, didn't look great last year. Defense really relying on a bunch of young guys. This is going to be tough. We took a pretty big L. I know I'll speak for Connor and I, I'm going to put Clark in that boat, but you know, we weren't necessarily off on the Chiefs, but we thought

some of these other teams in the division were ascending and the conference were ascending. And we thought maybe there's a chance that we're going to have a little bit of a buyback on the Chiefs. And again, they go out and just win the Superbowl. Clark, I'll let you get started with the Chiefs. Yeah, don't put me in that category. I had Chiefs to win the Super Bowl 10 to 1 and Mahomes MVP 9 to 1. So it was a good year for me. I think the Chiefs are finally getting the credit they deserve. I mean, it took them last year. Everyone was finding reasons to doubt them with the departure of Tyree Kill. But bottom line is when you have Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and a strong offensive line, especially with Travis Kelsey,

you can beat anybody on any given day. And so at their best, you know, in the playoffs, when the chips are on the table, they elevate their game. Patrick Mahomes has that Michael Jordan-esque desire to win, where the only thing that matters is winning. But what they can do is take some of the edge off in the regular season when the games maybe aren't as urgently important, right? You know, the Chiefs know they can go 12 and 5, 13 and 4, maybe even 11 and 6 and still make a solid playoff run. All that matters

is they win when it counts. You see this in other sports with teams like the Warriors that, you know, when they made the playoffs again and again, like it's a long season. And the Chiefs have probably the worst defense they've had if Chris Jones doesn't show up, but they've had since Mahomes has been quarterback, maybe since year one. Chris Jones, there's no progress on that talk. And so it doesn't look like he'll be back week one. Who knows if he'll be back week eight. Charles O'Manney, he was suspended for the first six games. LeJarius Sneed is questionable for for week one these are key components of a defense that isn't that great to begin with so the pressure is going to be on the offense and he's going to be working in new receivers um you know juju's gone some you know rookie rishi rice second year sky more didn't really do much as a

rookie cadareous tony who knows how you know how healthy he is and how many snaps he'll play. If something happens to Kelsey, who's 33, no matter how good Patrick Mahomes is, it's going to be a battle. Um, and you know, Patrick Mahomes can win any battle, but this just is not an easy favorable, you know, starting out, um, situation for him. And then down the stretch, the chiefs face, you know, a pretty tough schedule of traveling. They got to go up to Europe and place my play Miami and Germany. They come back and they play a lot of teams with extra rest for the other teams. So I think there's a lot of things that are kind of stumbling blocks for the Chiefs this year. And yet their odds are probably higher than they've ever been to win the Super Bowl, win the division, etc.

So I think the odds are a little bit optimistic. I never want to doubt the chiefs or bet against them outright because of you know how good patrick mahomes is but um definitely not looking to get involved at any of the market prices yeah some churn to tackle on both ends uh and you kind of did the same thing that we're doing last year like just looking at this receiving corn like hey there's just there's a lot of questions. At the same time, we have, again, Patrick Mahomes. We have Andy Reid. That has been a very strong recipe, even preceding Mahomes. Like just Reid in Kansas City has just been nothing but producing, you know,

nine, ten wins regardless of what they had going on there. He makes some great points in terms of defense. We've seen some – like when they make that type of like step up defensively and there aren't necessarily the pieces there that make sense, we do seen some, like when they make that type of like step up defensively and there aren't necessarily the pieces there that make sense. We do see some regression there. There's definitely some questions in week one, obviously without a man who, without Jones at this point, Snead being an issue in terms of, you know, great year for him last year, he can move into the slot, he can play outside. You know, they use them a lot of times outside and in man coverage too. So

lots of week one questions. And I know you've been able to take advantage of that in the marketplace early, but Connor, where are you at for 2023 on the Chiefs? Yeah, I don't want to say that they don't have a high ceiling, but it almost seems like at this point, like at least in a regular season here, they didn't really do anything to make me feel better about their outlook this year than in previous seasons. And so when we're looking at this point, I think there's legitimate questions about the receiving core, as you mentioned, like they basically said that Skymore is going to be starting in basically

every, every package here with Richie James and you know, whatever it's Justin Watson and the other guys mixing in as like package players. So I just don't really know. I don't really have much room for optimism and Travis Kelsey at some point has to hit a, the age cliff and when the age cliff hits it hits fast like it has to happen at some point and so uh I personally would not like laying you know we're looking like minus 165 minus

170 to win the division especially when I think there's a team in the chargers that is very much live as long as they stay healthy so for me it's kind of just a stay away like yeah they're going to be good I think there's better spots to fade them in season because obviously, you know, they figure it out. Skymore ends up being good. And, you know, we're looking at a completely different situation here offensively. But personally, I just don't have a ton of faith in guys like MVS or at this point being anything more than just like a stretch outside guy.

Well, cut down day, they're keeping seven receivers. Last couple of years, they've kept five. So they're telling us a little bit with their actions that they're unsure. You know, and I don't know that any of those guys are cut worthy per se. They love Justin Watson, right? For whatever reason, they want that guy out there and you can block and you can run wind sprints and do whatever. But, like, we knew he was making the team.

They're keeping seven, which I think is interesting. So something will emerge there, you know, whether it's Kadarius Toney or maybe there is a Justin Ross revival that actually is legit and can take place in season. So like they have enough to throw the seven of them against the wall and see what happens. Now, again, it's a very different story. If Travis Kelsey falls off a cliff, I think that we're not really prepared to see what happens with them offensively in the stretch on the homes and Andy Reed would be significant, significantly greater than anything else we've seen previously so yeah the defensive questions again not even with the guys that are questions for week one but like caitlin saunders

big body up front gone he's in new orleans frank clark gone carlos dunlap gone warren thornhill uh safety gone so they did a really good job at kind of incorporating some of those younger guys last year i'm trying to duffy played really well when he got back and healthy late in the season justin reed as well in the city and uh in safety as well so like some of those guys took a little bit of their lumps last year but they're gonna have to like be in key roles this year so there's a it's just a thin it's a thin group defensively uh so you're probably going to see some shootouts uh they have made it to the afc championship game every year that this coach quarterback duo has been there five straight seasons um again

clark mentioned the schedule is very very difficult the unique three are are tough uh you know they get they have to go to kansas city or no they have to go to um they are k they get they have to go to Kansas City or no they have to go to um they are Kansas City they have to go to Jacksonville um they also get the Eagles and the Bengals so that's a tough group too also some of that late season rest stuff isn't in their favor as well Clark I know you're kind of laying the groundwork for maybe not a fade but is there anything in the marketplace currently that interests you in the Chiefs no definitely not fading I mean I actually like the way the receivers are set up because one thing that I saw on the field was when Tyreek Hill left, defenses didn't know who to focus on outside of Travis Kelsey. And even when they focused on Travis Kelsey, he got open, which is kind of weird, but it's like defenses don't have a focal

point. The Chiefs are very much a take what the defense gives. And when you've got, you know, five, six, seven guys that can play receiver in different ways, it's going to be really difficult for defenses to anticipate what they can do. And I would never bet against Mahomes in season-long markets requiring him to lose when he's healthy. So yeah, I mean, I'm hands off. It's a week-to-week thing for me. Like they're never going to be a great team against the spread because of how good they are and how big of the spreads they get,

but how they don't really tend to put the pedal to the metal in the same way some other teams can do with the lead, especially during the regular season, especially early on. So it's a week to week thing for me with Kansas city. Connor, you kind of spoke, you just a little bit not in love with any of the market prices currently. Well, glad we're, we're doing a little run up to week one here this is our last one guys we've been doing this all season come on let's go the uh the more i think about it here honestly though we're looking at different doesn't always mean bad and so like

for the receiving core like they figured out remember if we remember the game where they got you know wrecked by tampa with their offensive line was like a bunch of nobodies, but they got to the Super Bowl with literally a terrible offensive line, you know, at that point. So like, there's a lot of ways for them to figure things out and do different things. It just might be a little bit more rocky in season than I think we're used to, at least on the offensively from a passing game standpoint. So like, that's the downside there. And so, yeah, like, I don't think that they're probably in play to win like 15 games this season, but I would be shocked if they won less than like nine or 10.

So it's a pretty tight range of outcomes, I think, here. So I don't know. I think that it's kind of just a stay away from me. I learned my lesson last year. Right now, we have Mahomes, Reid, and Kelsey. And while that core is there, it's just enough to make me think they're still going to be in the mix. Chasing a juiced over on 11.5.

I'm kind of with you guys. You know, the way that this conference is going to play out, plus 350 to win the conference is maybe my preferred way. But, again, we're not forced about it, and it's not something I would do, and there's a lot of variance in conference. So, yeah, it's going to be interesting to watch, and it could be an interesting start in week one. So that should be a good one.

We'll now shift to the Los Angeles Chargers. They are 25-1 on DraftKings to win the Super Bowl. AFC price that you can get, 14 on MGM. 3-1 to win the division on Caesars, and their win total at 9.5. Slightly juiced to the over. They're around even as well in terms of bets to make the playoffs, which I think is interesting too. We all know how the season ended.

There are really no really good way to spend the last couple hours that Chargers fans had to watch there. Just kind of a historic collapse in the playoffs there. And it's kind of the note. It's kind of how we preface everything we talk about the chargers year in and year out is this like if they can stay healthy thing and it just never seems to happen like talk about it being variance but at some point there has to be some signal here that they cannot find a way to get their best players on the field for the entirety of the season or all at the same time. Aaron Schatz noted Rashawn Slater, Corey Lindsey, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams were on the field for 20 snaps together last season. Justin Herbert basically played the entire season with a fractured rib. That happened in week two. And defensively, it was almost the same. Big free

agent signings, JC Jackson, Austin Jackson, Ar Johnson up front, massive disappointments. And then they got hurt. Joey Bosa hurt early, came back in the playoffs. Wasn't the same again. Like, so there's always optimistic on paper for the chargers. And it just never seems to play out that way. It's hard not to love the roster now because there's not a lot of injuries currently. So they seem to have survived the preseason Connor. I'll let you get started with the Chargers. I don't want to sound like a Bitcoin bro, but I mean, buy the MF and dip.

You know, this is, this is the time here. You know, this is, this is the time to take advantage of it. I mean, I bet I'm 25 to one to win the Superbowl. I think that they're very much live to win the division because if they stay healthy, they are just in a really good spot overall. And we're looking at, I mean, they won 10 games last year despite everything that you mentioned, all the injuries, the offense, playing a different kind of offense.

I mean, just – I don't necessarily in hindsight blame Joe Lombardi for necessarily the offense because, I mean, they had like what? Keenan Allen, Austin Eckler. Mike Williams was in and out of the lineup. Like what are you really going to do? Are you going to go like bombs away with Keenan Allen? I mean, that's just not where he wins. So you're looking at an offense now though that i think

that it's quinn johnson a healthy mike williams keenan allen like a couple more deep options here i think that uh justin herbert's averaged up the target is going to rise dramatically they're going to push the ball downfield also looking at kellen moore was top six in plays per game for each of the last four seasons top 10 and no huddle. I think you're gonna see a lot of pace, a lot of downfield attack, and then maybe more running, maybe the same amount of passing. I mean, they were seventh in pass rate last year, I believe.

So it's not like that can go up dramatically, but I think that we're looking at probably a little bit more aggressive play calling in terms of downfield shots offensively. And for me, with a guy like Justin Herbert, who is an absolute hose of an arm, like that just is super exciting. So I think when you combine all of all those factors you're looking at an offense that i think could legitimately be the best in the league if everything pans out right

and then a defense that again could also be among the best in the league so i'm i think the division discount is interesting too because obviously against the chiefs but i'm not quite as high on the broncos or raiders this year so i think that in spot here, you're getting like plus 310 on points, but right now plus 300 at other spots. I think it could be worth a look. I think that was way too easy on Joe Lombardi personally. I do blame Joe Lombardi for, I always, when I think about the Chargers, I think I've talked about this before.

I always think of the image of the Bugatti parked next to the mobile home. Yeah. It's like you have Justin Herbert, right? And when you look at all the underlying metrics, his big-time throw rates, his turnover-worthy play rate, it's a perfect combination of accuracy, ability to force the ball down the field accurately, and you're just using him to throw consistently

to the running backs at the highest rate in the league. And at a very inefficient rate too. Like success rate on dump offs and screens to Austin Eckler were poor, very, very poor and predictable. So, yeah, they had injuries and they made it a little bit harder, but like you're not even letting him try it. And he was doing it successfully when you would let him do it. So I kind of agree that Kellen Moore thing is very exciting.

Adding Quinton Johnston, still having Josh Palmer, I think is interesting. Again, not a lot of speed. I think the Quinton Johnston speed elements, yak element, I think is a nice signing for them. They can keep Big Mike healthy. Keenan can, Keenan surprised me. It looked like he was falling off. And then when he was in there last year, it was really, really good. Offensive line is fantastic. If they can stay healthy, Clark, I know you're excited to start talking about the Chargers. Yeah, I think the discourse around Joe Lombardi is a little oversimplistic and scapegoaty. I think Justin Herbert deserves some of the blame as well. And the thing is, you know, when Patrick Mahomes is in a game and the game plan is not working, he tells his offense coordinator, this isn't working. We need to switch this up. You know, during the, during the week they're in communication where

it's a back and forth, like, what are you seeing out there? I'm seeing this, we need to do this differently. And, you know, two years into the Joe Lombardi experience, Justin Herbert was doing the same stuff. At some point he has to take ownership and say, I'm the quarterback. I'm the one out there seeing the defenses. We need to do this differently. And I don't know if it's a lack of assertiveness or if Joe Lombardi was just too controlling or if Justin Herbert just didn't see it. But I think there's an element of quarterback play that goes beyond what you see on the field. On the field, Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, no doubt one of the best in the league. But what I want to see is him take more control and ownership over the offense. Now, I think there's optimism

here because Kellen Moore, you know, saying all the right things, like it seems like their partnership is working out really well. Seems like they're really on the same page. It's also possible that Kellen Moore won't hamstring Justin Herbert the way that Joe Lombardi did. So Herbert won't need to be as assertive and controlling over the offense. There's multiple avenues here to where this offense takes a massive step forward. But what I want to see from Herbert is that assertiveness, that aggression, that sort of like take over the field dynamic that Patrick Mahomes has. We haven't seen that from Herbert yet, and I want to. If he can do that and the offensive line stays healthy, you know, they've

got the receivers, they've got the offensive line, they've got the play calling, the defense, you know, maybe average. I don't know, like if they can stay healthy, it might be better than average. If they get banged up again, that might be below average. But really once you have an offense of the caliber that the charges can be, you can compete in the AFC. Even if you have an average defense, we've seen that from the chiefs year after year. So I'm very optimistic that there are multiple avenues for this team to take

a massive step forward. I think they're being treated as a step below the elites in the AFC. They're being treated on par with like the Jaguars, when I think they should be treated on par with like the Bengals and the Bills and the Chiefs, you know, maybe one step, like half step behind them. But right now they're being treated as a full step behind them. And I don't think that's justified.

I think that's based on an overreaction to what we saw last year, which was a team featuring cluster injuries at offensive line and receiver, two places where cluster injuries have compounding impact and really, really, you know, kill the way an offense runs. So I'm very optimistic. I'm excited. You know, people have been asking me, like, who's your this year's Jags, right? Because last year, Jags were my big flag plant team.

And I don't feel comfortable. I don't think that there's a team being priced in the range that the Jaguars were last year that's going to be, you know, really good playoff caliber team. And I don't feel comfortable. I don't think that there's a team being priced in the range of the Jaguars were last year. That's going to be, you know, really good playoff caliber team. But I do think the charges are being materially underpriced in the market. And so that's, you know, the closest thing we're going to get. I like it. I'm also interested to see the Kellen Moore stuff Connor highlighted. Like, I think we're going to see more motion. We'll see more pace. We'll see all those things I think can add a different element. And I think even Kellen Moore, as he comes into his own, like calling plays and running an offense kind of under the thumb

of an offensive-minded head coach, I think is very different than calling plays and doing things under the umbrella of a defensive-minded head coach in Brandon Staley. So I think there's going to be more freedom for Kellen Moore even to kind of lean into his own as he kind of develops as a play caller. So I'm excited to see what happens. I would just love to see this team, this poor team, just survive a little bit just to give them a shot,

like just see if we can reach any type of ceiling outcome just by being healthy. Because then I think you're right. I think you make a good point there, Clark. Like there does come a point where you got to run the plays that are called, but at the same time, like you have to be aggressive yourself to take the shots down the field. Or if you're not running the schemes to be able to do so, you have to go to the sideline or you have to talk about that on Monday to say, Hey, we need, this is what I think we can do a little bit better. We need to be a little bit more aggressive. And I, I know that Austin Eckler is a talented performer on the ground and through the air, but he's got to be able to stretch the field.

And they just had way too many three and outs for a team that has that type of level of quality on the offensive side of the ball. And we know that there's just kind of a trickle-down effect. It adds a strain on the defensive side of the ball to get back out there. And again, they're thin and underperforming. I have questions what's going on there. We need J.C. Jackson to stay healthy and kind of be the guy that they thought they were getting when they brought him in from New England

because that was not who they had at all last year before he went down. He was kind of a disaster. They had a couple of other turnovers. Bryce Callahan, really strong in the slot. They moved on from him. Nasir Adeli was really young safety, kind of retired out of nowhere. They didn't do much at all in the draft to address anything in the secondary. They were kind of looking for guys to slide in in terms of guys

that were already in the roster. Derwin James is awesome. He's just another guy that never really plays 15, 16 games in the season. He's often hurt. Jasir Taylor, like this poor kid, like there's a pretty straight line causation situation when that kid entered the game against Jacksonville and when things went off the rails, you know, when Mike Davis got hurt there. So he's in as like a starting every down corner this year. So things get a little bit easier in the back half

if Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are playing and being those types of guys. So things get a little bit easier in the back half if Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are playing and being those types of guys. So I think that there's definitely a path of this defense being above average still, if they stay healthy, but that's kind of the caveat for the entire handicap of the team is what can we see ceiling wise as they stay healthy. So Connor,

you're interested in division prices here. Yeah. Division prices, super bowl too. And I think Clark brought up a good point when you're comparing a team like the Chargers to the team that they're similarly priced around, I think they're materially better just top to bottom than a team like the Jags and even the Dolphins pretty much fully there. And then you have teams even above them, the Lions, the Ravens, the Jets, the Cowboys, the Bengals. I mean, I think that they're very much in play with all

of those teams relative to total roster composition and like talented players and what we can expect from them this year. Yet they're being priced the lowest among all those by far in the Super Bowl market. So obviously there are other factors, schedule, you know, division and stuff like that. But I mean, relatively, though, if you want to bet on Lombardi, Kellen Moore discourse is that it's just, I just think it's really, really difficult when you to throw down field, when you have Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton, like guys just running, like guys who are just, nobody's running routes.

Keenan Allen is not a target earner downfield. Like, you know, it's, it's, it just makes it a little bit more difficult. Now I think that there's definitely some blame in terms of the routes that he's having them run. And I think that to Clark's point, he's, he mentioned like, oh, well, he has to take control of that offense. I think it's a little bit tougher to be like, hey, we need to actually do entirely the opposite of every route we're running. You know, like we can't be just running slants and dump offs to Austin Eckler.

He probably should have said that. And maybe he did. We don't know. But I just think it makes it a little more difficult than being like hey we need to do something different you know so that was the only thing that i would you know push back on a little bit yeah i mean they just and again i think that probably is also herbert and that to clark's point is like they just like failed to throw the ball past the chains on first down almost ever it was just not part of their like dead last in the league in like taking shots on

first down beyond 10 yards. Like that's, that's wild when you have someone like Herbert's on the roster. Clark, I know you got down early. Is there anything currently out there price-wise that you would advise people getting in on the Chargers? Yeah, I'm with 25 to one Superbowl. I'm with, I don't know what the price you can get on Herbert for MVP now is if you can get 12 to one or better, I think that's good. And then over nine and a half wins at minus 120 on DraftKings. Like, yes, their schedule looks to be tougher, but they did win 10 games last year and they lost the last game,

a meaningless game they didn't need to win. So they won, you know, 10 or 11 last year. And they dealt with so many injuries, so many bad situations. So to project them to, you know, get worse is, is I think a little bit shocking. I really, really like the price at minus 120, because it, you know, if you're betting the division, you're also kind of betting against the chiefs. And that's always a squeamish bet. It's like, anytime you're betting on the chiefs to lose games outright.

I think it's, you know, it always depends on the price, right? And I did bet the division, but I think I prefer just relying on the Chargers to be good. And the last thing I'll say is when you're talking about season win totals and you're kind of on the edge, like numbers wise, they're having an elite quarterback, an elite playmaking quarterback who has the traits that Justin Herbert has. He's incredible at evading sacks, incredible on third down. These are the types of skills that lead to a higher win rate in those close games. So if you project them to play a lot of close games and a lot of tough games, they're the type of team that I want to be backing in those games.

And so getting the win total at nine and a half, I think is a way to kind of tap in if you think Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback. I like that. They've shown us over the years years they can go anywhere and win. They've won in Kansas City multiple times. This year's matchup in Kansas City is a little trickier. They got kind of hosed from a rest standpoint. They play Dallas, which is one of their unique three, which is a tough one.

They play – I think they play Cowboys on Monday night, and then the Chiefs are coming off of a Thursday night game. So they have short rest, and then the Chiefs have a mini bye. So it's kind of a tough little spot schedule-wise for them. But again, if they stay healthy, they can really beat anyone here. How many times did we say that? Yeah. We need a counter, Sal.

Get the counter going. Yeah, it's somewhat a caveat for any of these teams, but I think this is a team. We just never see it. We haven't seen it for this team. So hopefully this could be near so fun fact uh two years ago i bet over nine wins they got nine wins last year i bet over 10 wins they got 10 wins this year i bet over nine and a half wins i'm gonna either win or lose on the chargers finally i'm just hoping it's a win get an outcome either way all right next the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are basically 45 everywhere to win the Super Bowl,

30 to win the AFC. That's on DraftKings and FanDuel. They are plus 650 on BetMGM to win the division, and their 8.5 win total is slightly juiced to the under. I think all things considered, when we look back on where we were doing this show last year 2022 expectations pre-season hype all the things going on i think the broncos maybe that i can remember were one of the biggest letdowns in history nathaniel hackett was a like let's be honest he was hired

to bring over aaron rogers it didn't happen and it was just a disaster right away. And then they asked Russell Wilson to run an Aaron Rodgers offense. And he just, I don't know if young Russell Wilson was maybe more equipped to do so, but it wasn't really what he did in Seattle. And he really failed in a big, big way. Connor, I'm going to let you get started. You got a Broncos jersey behind you. Talk to me about the expectations this year. Sean Payton, is there anything left in the tank for Russell Wilson? Talk to me about the Broncos. We did a show a couple of months ago, I think,

and I mentioned that the Broncos had a little bit more upside than the market was giving them credit for. I think since then, and since some preseason reports, and since I've been looking at the roster a little more, I'm not really into this. I mean, the reports that I've seen out of camp are that they look worse this preseason and in training camp than they did last year, which to me is impossible to fathom, but I guess that's where we are. Then we look at a preseason games, Russell Wilson and five drives in those five drives that scored 10 points, 3.2 yards per play. Um, Jerry Judy already dealing with an injury, Tim Patrick, Torres Achilles, you have rookie Marvin Mims out there, Courtland Sutton, who I just think probably struggles to separate at this point in his

career, just not really the alpha receiver that we had thought he could have been last year. So what are we going to get out of this team? I offensively, I think that there's a very, very real chance that Jared Stidham see some time this season because Sean Payton does not care at all about Russell Wilson. He has zero ties to him at this point outside of the monetary, you know, ties of the team has made to him,

but they seem very ready to cut bait in any way possible. Maybe not this season, but you know, we'll see, they'll find a way to get rid of him. So for me, I think that the four year for this offense is really low in a lot of ways.

Now I think this is the issue though, is that like Jared sit him, I think could come in and be reasonably better than Russell Wilson, if that's possible, considering how he played last year. Like, I don't know, the more that I hear, maybe if I see something different, it can make sense, but I'm really just struggling to see a way that this offense is good. Now, the defense still has plenty of good enough players, I think, to keep them afloat. So like, they're not going to be the worst team in the league, but they could be pretty close if their offense plays as bad as they did last year, which again is like truly

impossible to imagine. I think I had bet the over on their point total last year on the season, and they finished with the least amount of points in the league, lower than the Zach Wilson Jets. I mean, you know how impossibly hard that is. So yeah, I don't know. Maybe last year was clouding my bias a little bit but i really think that everything we've heard and everything that we can project so like unless sean payton shows something immediately different they have some way different like outcome that we've seen at all in the preseason like this team is going to be in rough shape so last year was the the broncos or just a quarterback away uh maybe they're still just a quarterback away, but Clark,

I don't know if you heard that Connor is worried about fading the Broncos because he's worried about them being better with a possible Jared Stidham month or two starting wild scene in Denver. Where are you out of the Broncos? I mean, I'm not too far off. You know, last year I faded the giants. And a lot of the reason was because I'd seen enough out of Daniel Jones to think, you know, this guy can't hack it. And I was embarrassingly wrong. And I think sometimes we underestimate the impact that a new coach and offensive coordinator

can have on a quarterback. So I want to hesitate and I'm not outright fading the Broncos for that reason, but my expectations are very low. I'm very, very pessimistic on this team. I was last year too, and I did bet it. But this year, Sean Payton has proven to be a good head coach, but how much of that was Drew Brees, right? I mean, he had Drew Brees for that many years and they only won one Super Bowl. I'm not saying that only one Super Bowl is bad. It's tough to win any Super Bowls, but he had a good team for most of those years. And so how much of that is Sean Payton? How much of that is roster building, great quarterback play,

offensive line play, et cetera? And then the other thing is we talked about Nathaniel Hackett-type offense not really suiting Russell Wilson's skill set. I'm not convinced that Sean Payton's offense is a good fit for Russell Wilson's skill set. He's just not the type of accurate timing. He's accurate, but the timing anticipation throws that Drew Brees was so good at, understanding exactly what the defense was going to do downfield routes develop and then throw that perfect moon ball downfield. I'm not sure that that's what Sean Payton has in mind. So I think there could be a little bit of conflict there.

Also, Jerry Judy, you know, looks like he's hurt. Tim Patrick's already gone. Like the Broncos suffered a ton of injuries last year and they're kind of right back on that track already, which isn't a great way to start. Defensive metrics tend to be, you know, unstable. So I'm not chalking them in to be a top defense again. Maybe they will be. They've got a good secondary. But I just think that there's more question marks than answers here.

One thing that did encourage me if I'm rooting for the Broncos in the preseason is Russell Wilson got moving a lot more. He had some really nice scrambles where he made that quick decision to get out and running. Last year, he was kind of a statue. And as a statue, he was absolutely terrible. So I think more mobility. He seems to have lost some weight. I think some coaching benefits with Sean Payton. There are avenues to improvement, but they're not the types of things that I would ever expect. It's just there's room for it. And I got to see it on the field before I believe it. And Joel Lombardi is here to help coordinate the offense in case you guys are pro pro Lombardi after our charger segment.

So yeah, I'm with you. I mean, I want to believe that Peyton's smart enough to evolve into say, look, we're, we do the same thing. Probably going to get the same results. I know. I don't know. I think Connor's got a point.

And what he's saying is like, he doesn't care. He's almost okay. Now, I don't know. I think Conor's got a point, and what he's saying is he doesn't care. He's almost okay because his leash is so long. He got the bag, and he got years. So it's like, look, do we benefit from kind of crapping out? Can we out-tank the Cardinals who are really trying to go for it and some of these other teams that I think have an option of bottoming out? A little bit easier to do so in the AFC considering the strength of the schedule. But like any optimism in this team

is baked into the market. They won five games last year. The win total is eight and a half. So like if you're optimistic, we're already paying for it. It's already in there. So it is a little bit harder. I'm with you.

Like the defense is fine. There's some good pieces in the secondary. I think a lot of pieces here, too, are tied to – I don't want to overrate the coordinator, but like Everett was a guy that just continues to get a lot of steam, and rightfully so. They had really very limited pass rush, especially in the back half of the season.

Again, like they lost the most games due to injury in the entire league. So that worked its way out on both sides of the ball. But outside of the secondary, like they're dealing with some really dusty dudes up front to try to generate some pass rush and you know they drafted like drew sanders a kid who's a linebacker who played at alabama um you played at arkansas who's like a hybrid linebacker and edge like they want him to be a massive like difference maker in terms of pressure rate you know they're rolling back vance joseph who to kind of do that it's good for everyone involved good for for vance to be able to be like yeah i'll go back to the place and just send me away as the head coach a couple years ago and i'll run the defense here it's a little bit interesting but

patrick certain is that guy um you know justin simmons is really good they have some other young depth in the secondary that's good but like like, I don't know, up front, I think they're going to struggle to get pressure, and that is a problem as well. They couldn't stop the run much last year as well. Injuries were part of that too. Offensive line, like, problem. Injuries were a problem.

Some of the guys that they added are better run blockers than they are pass blockers. And there's just vibes, even when you watch the preseason game against the Cardinals, who I think are going to have a really poor pass rush, we're just collapsing the pocket on Russ time and time again. And Russ's pressure to sacrate spiked drastically last year. I think part of that is what Clark's saying.

Like he was kind of a statue. It wasn't really willing to be mobile, but it's also like I'm a little bit older. And like, that's not something that you see once it starts to slip when you look at that metric that typically can tends to be sticky at later part of guys's career so i'm worried that russ just isn't willing to stand in there step up and take a hit anymore he's going to maybe try to run or just kind of collapse onto himself to not take the big hit and that's just Gary Bowles has not really been that guy anymore anyway he's coming off of a broken leg

um you were kind of been regressing since he kind of peaked a couple years ago so there's just not a lot here to be super encouraged about so are we betting them currently in the market Connor fading them in any way that we can get I mean I would lean under honestly on their win total but it's not a super strong lean because I think that their defense can will them some wins kind of like last year I mean like you said they won five games last year I mean they were like unbelievably bad offensively literally the worst team in offense in the league and they won five games so like I mean they're probably going to be better than that just by natural you know whether when Jared Stidham takes over they're definitely gonna be better than that that, you know? So no, but I mean, like, I don't know,

like, it just seems like a team I talked about with the chiefs a little bit, like they're not a high floor team, but like, you know, six ish wins floor. And like, but maybe they cap out at nine wins, 10 wins, if everything goes right. Um, but like, I just don't see it with them because I think that everything going right for them is that Russell Wilson is okay. At this point, not Russell Wilson being the, the Russ of old. Like, I just really don't I think that everything going right for them is that Russell Wilson is okay at this point. Not Russell Wilson being the Russ of old. I just really don't even think that at this point that's like a hundredth percentile outcome. I don't even think that's even in like a meaty range of outcomes at this point. Clark, there's some winnable games early. So we're going to get a taste to see if there's anything. And I think pretty easy to jump ship quickly. The meat of

their schedule in season is pretty tough. Any interest in anything in the Broncos markets currently? Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the, like, try to time your entry angle. I know a lot of people do that, but I tend to think that, like, you know, the market understands that, you know, maybe I'm naive, but week one at home against the Raiders, week two I think is at home against Washington, if I remember correctly. So, you know, coming off the, you know, early, early season games in the mountain air tend to be favorable for Denver and that's two teams that they can beat. So they could be riding high to know at

that point. That might be the time when I, you know, skepticism needs to kick in, but at the same time, if they look really good in those two games, like it could just be signal that they're going to be a better team, right? I mean, there's been enough change in this team that they could be better. So I'm not really just like waiting to see them go to a note. The other thing is, if you want to fade the Broncos, and they're bad, and they lose one of those two games, then you've probably missed your opportunity, right? Like, so if you're down on the Broncos, then you should be betting it at current prices, because you're under the market. I'm not, I'm implicitly fading them with the Chargers division bet and some of the

pro chargers bets that I laid out earlier. I think this is really a two team race for the division. So I saw someone, someone on my timeline had posted like the, like a one, two, any order charges chiefs in the division, which I thought was an interesting look.

I think they had, they had to lay juice for it, but I still think that was an interesting look. Yeah. You're probably paying a pretty penny to lay that. But yeah, I agree. It's a two-horse race. I lean under as well in the 8.5, minus 114 on FanDuel, still out there.

Yeah, I mean, I think part of it, too, is if they come out 2-0 and win those two games, they're kind of questionable teams. And we also have that September september denver narrative that is you know pretty strong and you know i guess there's a large enough sample where you feel like there's something to you know that early thing because then look you get into the meat of it here week five the jets six kansas city seven green bay eight kansas city buffalo minnesota cleveland like that is a tough stretch i think that they're dogs in the majority of those games. So, yeah, I'm interested to see how Sean Payton evolves

and if the Russ thing is just kind of where we're at in his career. But, yeah, I mean, massive jump in terms of what we're expecting there in terms of the market numbers. All right, Raiders, last one, last team, Team 32. Let's look at the prices on the Raiders. 80 to win the Super Bowl. That's on DraftKings. 65 to win the conference on DraftKings as well.

To win the division, they are 20 to 1, and their 6.5 win total is slightly juiced to the ender. Raiders thought they were contenders last year. They're coming off of a 10-7 season, made the playoffs, lost in the road to the Bengals, and then they went out and said, hey, look look let's make some some moves get davante adams bring in chandler jones uh let's give the keys to josh

mcdaniels because they kind of had a coaching situation with all the uh the gruden stuff and look it just hasn't didn't work um the mcdaniel stuff is rough uh you just get these like the reports with like the nfl, like, you know, surveys and people just basically coming out. And anyone that wants to take a shot that's had Josh McDaniels as a head coach doesn't seem to like it. He seems to try to bully teams into like the Patriots way. And that works when you're Bill Belichick.

That doesn't seem to work. It didn't work in Denver for Brandon Marshall. It didn't work for Jay Cutler. It didn't seem to work for Derek Carr. It didn't work in Denver for Brandon Marshall. Didn't work for Jay Cutler. Didn't seem to work for Derek Carr. Didn't work for Darren Waller. He's bringing in his guys, some turnover there. Defensively, Jimmy Garoppolo in for Carr. Clark, I'll let you get started on the Raiders. Yeah, I think the Raiders were better last year than people think. Like just in my metrics and my numbers, they graded out as a pretty good team. Not like a playoff team, but you know, they went to Kansas City and had a chance to knock them off in Kansas City like they blew a lot of games late that I think they blew like a 20-point lead against the

Cardinals well no I got a nugget here for you I got a nugget on this they let me find it here it was insane they had a uh they went one and four in the five games which they had a double digit lead. The rest of the league went 84 and nine in those scenarios. So a win clip of 90.3% and somehow the Raiders went one and four. So tough, tough team. Exactly, right. So when you look at game to game metrics,

I thought they were better than their record. There's a big question mark about whether Jimmy Garoppolo is a downgrade from Derek Carr. And I think a healthy Jimmy G is probably close to Derek Carr. Like, you know, yes, he's been in the Shanahan system with all those weapons that the 49ers have had over the years. But he's also been a very efficient quarterback. His EPA per play numbers, I think are a third of every quarterback in the last four years. And that's something, right? Like he's not, it's not like everything else is happening around him and he's just handing the ball off. Like he's

making the throws. He can hang in the pocket. He can anticipate when the guys are getting open and he can throw to throw to guys that get open. We'll see how much that translates to a Raiders offense that isn't quite as good, isn't quite as well-schemed, doesn't have quite as many weapons, but I do think he'll be okay as long as he stays healthy. If he gets hurt, Aiden O'Connell looks pretty good in the preseason. We'll have to see whether that translates to regular season play against starting defenders. But overall, it's like, you know, you got Max Crosby, you got Devontae Adams, you got Josh Jacobs, you got, you know, maybe Chandler Jones hasn't quite declined yet. It's a studs and scrubs roster. Outside of that, there's a lot of holes,

a lot of question marks. They're very thin, which kind of creates a big downside if one of those studs gets hurt or underperforms. So I also think that if you're the Raiders and you're thinking about the future, like the idea of tanking has to be on the table. I don't, I don't ever bet on the idea of teams tanking. I think there's not enough evidence to suggest that we can predict when it's going to happen. And sometimes when it's so obvious, it doesn't happen.

But I just think that with the quarterbacks that are in the draft next year and no long-term plan at quarterback, I can't imagine Jimmy G's a long-term plan. And as, as good as they know, kind of looked in the preseason, I can't imagine he's the reliable starter they want for the franchise quarterback. It just seems like the perfect year for the Raiders to just kind of mail it in.

Whether or not that happens, I don't know. It's not a bet I'm making, but it's just sort of taking a step back at this team and being like, what are they doing? Where are they going? I just don't think there's many avenues for them to be competitive this year at the higher levels that said I think they're a little underrated just kind of a week-to-week basis while all those guys are healthy they're gonna they're gonna play with some teams they're gonna compete with some teams they're gonna they're gonna fight Kansas City hard they're gonna fight the Chargers hard they always do so if their underdog numbers get to be a little inflated like that might be a team that I'm willing to bet on yeah Yeah. You know what? Like,

I couldn't agree more with the way that you've summarized that. Like, I think that there's like the range of outcomes I wouldn't say is like vast because I don't see a ceiling outcome. But I do think that they can be in like that, like seven to eight win range at like the top of their outcome, which again would exceed their win total. I also could see a complete disaster bothering bottoming out uh competing for like you know the worst team in the in the conference and maybe overall um there's some room here derrick carr was so bad in some key situations like he was okay early downs and they fed davante adams but he

was terrible in the second half of games they were awful in the red zone there's some you know regression there and jimmy g is it's weird it's like yeah he doesn't have the yak machines that he had in san francisco but like he deserves credit for being able to do that a little bit like when he is upright he's accurate puts the ball on guys and allows guys to get the yak now they don't have yak guys here they have almost the opposite outside of devante adams like you know jacoby myers is a below average yak guy uh hunter renfro is gonna catch and fall um that's not how these like tight ends are built like austin hooper michael mayer like those are Kobe Myers is a below average yak guy. Hunter Renfro is going to catch and fall. That's not how these like tight ends are built. Like Austin Hooper, Michael Mayer, like those are not like catch and run guys. So it's going to be an interesting dynamic there,

but kind of let you get started on the Raiders here too. Yeah. I'm going to give you a scorching hot take here to wrap up the division preview series. What if the reason that none of these Patriots head coaches end up working out is because the Patriots way was always fueled by Tom Brady and not Bill Belichick. And so all of the coaches were basically kaput.

Now I think Bill Belichick is a good coach. I'm just, you know, giving you a little bit of shit there. Yeah. Look at this. I had to go full galaxy brand here at the end. Also,

I think the difference. So circling back here, the difference between Jimmy G and Derek Carr is it's tough to evaluate like good versus bad of like what they do because they're just like so different. But I would say that Jimmy G just turns the ball over significantly less, which matters a bunch for winning games. And so if you're kind of able to keep them on schedule, not turn the ball over, like, yeah, you're probably not going to get the boom plays that Derek Carr was able to do

from time to time. But like, you're also not turning the ball over nearly as frequently. So that puts them in a better spot here. Now I'm a little bit worried about their defense. Uh, I think you mentioned that they're really thin outside of a couple of studs. I almost compare them like the Rams junior here over here, because we're looking at a team here where literally all of the starters, except for two of them on the defensive side, we're below average in PFF grades, literally every single one, except for, uh, was it Max Crosby and Marcus Peters? I, you know, no, no one else was even like above average in like the grades and like,

that's really bad, you know, like, so it's just going to be Max Crosby's defense, you know, like what, what are we going to see out here? So it's kind of, I mean, yeah. And this is what it's going to be like, kind of like the Rams, you know, it's just Aaron Donald and then everyone else. So I am, that's not something that I really want to bet on. Um, and I also not sure that it's something that I want to bet like overs on either,

because I think that they're probably going to run the shit out of the ball a bunch. Probably going to see Jimmy G just, you know, control the game for the most part. So I don't know. They're kind of just a hands-off team for me, any injuries,

it could be wheels up for some overs though, especially on other teams against them. Yeah. So I get the Rams thing. I'll push back. The Rams have guys that just have not played football in the nfl yet um and maybe they're gonna do it you know right yeah so it's like the you know the the unknown and maybe there's potential there like the raiders

are at least kicking like the tread on some of these guys that have been around a little bit they've just completely revamped um and bringing in a bunch of new starters the guys have at least played but yeah i mean but chandler jones was awful he had four and a half sacks three in one game um so like otherwise he was just like not a thing at all and they gave him a ton of money you know they you know tyree wilson they use an early pick to see if he could be the guy and um if those three guys can play and be difference makers that can lighten the low in the back half um i don't know they're gonna ask robert spillane i'm gonna get real deep here at linebacker to do like every down linebacker stuff and i think that guy's like an early down

tackle guy but you're gonna put that guy in coverage that tends to be a pro is going to be a problem for them which they're going to ask to. So there could be some like over the middle stuff, some like tight ends against the Raiders, maybe some spots that we start to look at in the prop market. Cause there's going to be some, some issues there at safety and a linebacker. So yeah, they also have a really rough schedule,

which makes it tough too. So I don't know. I just, it, we're just, just too many ifs here under six and a half wins. You got to lay a little bit of juice for that too. It's tough for me.

It's not really interested in it, but it would be my preferred way. Is there anything that you like Clark in terms of what's out there now for the Raiders? No, I I'm not looking to, you know, try to predict the tank.

If anything, I lean over, but it's kind of a queasy bet to make. So I think just again, supporting the chargers as sort of a rest of the division fade um is my way to go honestly not really at this point i'm just kind of looking ahead to week one here um you know i think that clark you played a week one but didn't you use broncos raiders was that what it was uh you played a little plus six or something uh plus five yeah what's it at now it's about there still four and a half or four and a half i i would still play

four and a half i don't think i'd touch four it's kind of a close one yeah that's gonna be a kind of shitty game huh we're probably leave that off our week one preview it's gonna be an interesting game it's gonna i think to me it's gonna be interesting to see like we just talked about these two teams it's gonna just be interesting to see right now they're somewhat at full strength like what can that look like what's the potential right because that's probably the best version of them again obviously like when you're in season you get more reps and like you can definitely grow because there's some some turnover and change but from a health standpoint like we're gonna get answers on i think some of the denver stuff what does the sean payton offense look like what are they asking russell wilson to do um can jimmy g continue to maybe see if he can elevate a little bit of this talent like

the offensive line's a problem too like the interior of the offensive line is is rough but again against denver has very little pass rush they could survive right so like that's why i think it's not a bad bet to be taking the points with Denver. So yeah, I don't know. It probably won't make the show for week one, but we'll let Clark go a little bit longer on since it's already one of his bets. Yeah, I mean, I'm betting into the right Denver at home

in week one narrative, which, you know, there's some statistical evidence for it, but ultimately like I tend not to bet those types of things. I tend to think that, like, you know, they're getting smarter. The NFL teams are getting smarter. This is partly why home field has diminished in value over the years is I think they're getting better about travel, about all the sports science of, like, thinking about how to best prepare the players for the games. And so I don't know exactly what the Raiders are going to do.

If I was them, I'd go to Denver early, like, whatever it is, get acclimated. We'll see. But I just think the Broncos don't deserve to be lame more than a field goal against a team that's comparable to them in talent. Like the, I got to see it, right? The Max Crosby and Chandler Jones, they could just eat Russell Wilson's lunch. I mean, it didn't take much last year. So I think anticipating the Broncos to kind of blow them out or, you know, win by a touchdown or more, you know,

five, six more is really giving the Broncos immediate credit for being a lot better with Sean Payton, where I'm more like, let's kind of see how it goes first. All right. I agree with that. All right.

32 teams in the books. Absolutely love it. Not letting you go without getting a Super Bowl prediction. I know you put some money on these things, but, again, as you go through the process, maybe you've sharpened a little bit, have some thoughts. But I will – how do we want to do this? I'm going to do – well, I'm going to give it to Clark.

Give me your Super Bowl matchup for this year in vegas um 2023 super bowl right it is all right i'm i'm going buffalo bills over the green bay packers one chalky one not so chalky um not so chalky they're like the fourth team in the division i love it i love it well i mean we've done this you know we're good on the on the packers but like not chalky is a light way to summarize that um i think the path is there you know i i when i did my like projections i rigged it so that the playoff path was like uh you know like dallas and philly play each other and then san francisco plays the winner of that and so they they like avoid all the good

teams until they get to the nfc championship and the four seed ends up in them with and they're the three seeds so they're playing at home in the nfc championship like you know a lot has to go right but uh but but it's there like i i believe in the upside of jordan love i believe in the offensive line the coaching the defensive talent the way that they're going to hopefully play and play defense differently. Another team that I got to see it, but I think that the, you know, we miss out on these types of steps forward for young quarterbacks so frequently because we just can't imagine it, but it happens, happens every year almost. And then on the other side, like we think of quarterbacks as these static entities and be like okay well Jordan Love is a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were not good last year so how could they possibly be better

with Jordan Love than Aaron Rodgers but there are other things that change the offensive philosophy changes the culture in the locker room changes so many things evolve and they've got so many young playmakers that were rookies last year or rookies entering this year that I think there are many ways that they can be much, much better around Jordan Love than they were around Aaron Rodgers last year. And I think that their schedule is the type of schedule that if they are the team they can be, they could be that 13 win team heading into the playoffs. So that's my angle for the Packers. I don't think I need to make my angle for the Bills.

I think that's pretty well, pretty clear. Bills winning that game? Yeah. Okay. Oh, I like it. I like it a lot. It's spicy, spicy meatball. Connor, where are you at for a Super Bowl matchup?

I wanted to say the Patriots just to mess with you, but I'm going to go with the Chargers. We just talked about them, so I'm not going to throw anything else in there. And then my NFC pick is going to be the Cowboys. I think right now just really underrated, especially given the odds, like should be a lot closer to Philly and San Fran. So I think that they're a clear tier ahead of basically everyone else in the NFC

outside of Philly and San Fran and are very much a competition. So, yeah, of course. I mean, Green Bay is, you know, right up there with the bears, you know, the, the rest of the strong NFC, but no, yeah. So that's my super rule pick. And then I'm going to have the, the chargers beating the Cowboys here in a interesting game. So that that's my pick. I got to make sure that I have enough chargers exposure, you know, to head into the season here, because I know I got a little bit early, but i got to make sure that i got enough because i think after we're done with all the previews it kind of locked me in and i need to bet a little bit more on this love it love it i uh

well i think you guys are gonna like what i did here because uh i'm i'm cherry picking a little bit off of each of you i'm gonna go back to the old school which which is like an annual Chris Berman selection. I'm going to go Bills, Cowboys. I'm very much with Clark that I think that there were so many things doing some of the research on the Bills side that was like, and they were still a really good football team, and this is just not going to happen again. And I just like the improvements that they made there as well i

think you see um that offense kind of gel i think you see the you know defense kind of improved with the new coordinator change there too a little bit more aggressive uh dallas i think is really one of the three teams at the top in the nfc um you clark making a good case for that being a four-team conversation but uh dallas i just i think the upside offensively I think is going to be great I think the defense can be like difference making game winning best in the league I wish we could get better numbers and like plus 450 on Michael Parsons to be the defensive player of the year because I think he's going to be awesome this year I love pretty much everything about that roster uh just again we can get healthy Michael Pars, healthy Tony Pollard throughout the entire season.

I think the Cowboys are going to be a lot of fun. I don't know who wins that game, but Cowboys-Bills would be my Super Bowl selection. So cherry picking off of both of you guys. So I think you guys like it a little bit. All right. In the books, guys, we will be back next week. Week one games.

Remember to subscribe, YouTube, subscribe to podcasts. We'll be here, again, Wednesday afternoon, 4 p.m. Eastern, breaking down our favorite games in the week one slate. Sides, totals, we'll probably touch a little bit on props. We'll be having props on Friday afternoon. Again, Connor, myself, and a season-long guest soon to be announced so you don't want to miss that again head over to four four dot com slash plans scoop the betting sub get in discord get all the picks stop dragging your feet now is the time to do so get it cheap

jump in the show notes and find the ways to do that for you uh but we're excited to get back here and talk week one games so for connor and clark i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody