Move The Line - Everything You NEED to Know About the NFC North | BEST Bets, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: July 20, 2023

Whether you're a passionate fan or a dedicated bettor, this is your ultimate guide to understanding the NFC North and how to bet on it. We break down each team's strengths, weaknesses, and key matchups, revealing hidden gems and strategic betting opportunities. From the electrifying talents of rising star Justin Fields to the promising quarterback Jordan Love, you'll experience the future of football firsthand. Stay ahead of the game with our expert predictions and best bets, designed to maximize your chances of success.CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro4:01 Detroit Lions Preview15:06 Minnesota Vikings Preview25:47 Chicago Bears Preview36:34 Green Bay Packers Preview50:09 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU NFC North Betting Preview  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OhrVLb

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends at Talk Football, Connor Allen, Sharp Clark. Connor, start with you buddy, how are we doing today? Good, living the thread life lately on Twitter. by my friends at Talk Football, Connor Allen, Sharp Clark. Connor, start with you, buddy. How are we doing today? Good. Living the thread life lately on Twitter, tweeting out as much stats as possible. Lately more often than usual. And it's just crazy to me how the way people want to consume data

and information nowadays is just so much different than the old days where you write an article and people get excited. Now people just want to read threads. So it's a lot of fun. Yeah, I'm the donkey that just published 3,000 words in this division, and you're the wise guy who's out here putting out threads that people are going to consume all day long. Clark, we're doing it the wrong way.

Yeah, apparently. But, yeah, things are good. My wife's been watching the quarterbacks show, and I'm a little bit worried she's going to leave me for Kirk Cousins. But apart from that, everything's good. Training camps arebacks show and I'm a little bit worried. She's going to leave me for Kirk cousins, but apart from that, everything, everything's good training camps around the way. So excited to talk NFC North. I've not consumed it yet, but I've seen some of the clips and you can't scroll through it on Twitter without it popping up a, you know, a clip.

It seems like it probably has a little bit more Brittany Mahomes than I'm, that I'm prepared for or really want to engage with, but I'm, I'm excited to take in. I know football hardos are not finding anything new out. It reminds me of some of, at least my impression of what I heard so far, is some of the stuff that they did with Full Swing on the PGA Tour and some of the F1 stuff. If you're really in the weeds in those sports, it's probably not for you,

but probably good high-level stuff for wives. I have a 15 year old who wants to watch it with me and so i'm looking forward to it so yeah man i'm in the weeds of the nfl every day and i loved it i thought it was fantastic i think i think you learned a lot about the way nfl teams work and quarterbacks prepare and all those kinds of things i yeah i have a note from one of the episodes uh you know on the biking so we'll see yeah i love the full swing thing on the pga tour and a lot of people you know on the vikings so we'll see yeah i love the full swing thing of the pga tour and a lot of people you know hated it because they explained like five times in the

first hour like how the cut line works and uh you know they kept bouncing around and it wasn't in like the order of the actual tournaments and it's like gosh no one really cares the show is not really for you uh just consume it as it is so uh excited to uh to unpack it here just seven weeks away from the start of the season we have rookie training camps uh underway across the league rest of the rosters the vets are reporting next week we're getting close folks we're almost here so uh nfc north today excited to unpack this uh both clark and i have previews up on the site if you head over to 444.com to check it out if If you're hanging out with us on YouTube, we appreciate that. Subscribe and thumbs up, comments, all those things go a long way to support the free content that we're doing here. Still obviously available in podcast form as well.

Subscribe there too, so you don't miss a show. And lots of great stuff coming out on 444. We're getting to the crunch time here. So subs at 444, the way to go. The betting sub is the bell of the ball. It gets you everything, anything you would need to be profitable, no matter how you like to get in football season. Tools, rankings, articles, projections, all that stuff. Subscriber Discord is where you want to be to get all of our picks, where we push it through. We've partnered with our friends over at BetMGM

to get you access for really cheap. You can find that detail in the show notes. If you are new and have not taken advantage of MGM yet, you can get a betting sub by just depositing $10 at MGM. Check out the show notes for more details there. All right. NFC North is very interesting. It is in terms of like win totals.

It is the second worst division in the league, I guess, behind the AFC South in terms of projected win totals. From a scheduling standpoint, they are playing the AFC West and NFC South, and then individually rotating through the NFC West, the AFC North, and the NFC East. So definitely a division in transition here. We'll start with the Lions here. They are, shockingly, in terms of how we know historically, this team has not won a playoff game since 1991. Connor, when were you born?

95. 95. The Lions have not won a playoff game since Connor's been alive, and they are the favorites currently in this division. If you want to bet them to win the Super Bowl, 25 to 1 on Caesars is the best number in the market. 11 to 1 to win the NFC on DraftKings. Plus 155 to win this division on FanDuel. Win total at 9.5. It's slightly juiced to the over, Connor. I'll kick it to you to start off with the Lions. Yeah, this team is tough because I think initially in one of the other episodes, I mentioned that I thought they were a team that might be overrated. And now when I kind of went through this division a little bit more, I think that they, in my mind, pretty clearly have the best roster in the division right now.

And I think that that doesn't mean that they're perfect or that they should be plus 145 or plus 130 to win the division. But I do think that when we look in totality here, they are the best roster. I think that looking at their metrics last year, they were really bad defensively, 31st in EPA per play. But they added a lot of pieces to that. They added Mosley, Sutton in their secondary, added Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. They seem to believe in their edge rushers, Charles Harris, Josh Paschal. I think that if those guys pan out, that'll make a big difference

for them because I do think that their defensive line is still a bit of a weakness. But offensively, it's really, really hard for me to poke many holes. Elite offensive line, great passing game. Jamison Williams, I think is a true difference maker once he comes back from a six game suspension. And Ben Johnson's incredible offensive coordinator. So like you have all these different factors here where we talk about teams that maybe don't have a lot of legs to stand on, potentially if something goes wrong. I feel like the Lions have, you know, many here where if the passing game isn't working, the running game should work. Adi Jame i feel like the lions have you know many here where if the past game isn't working the running game should work adding jameer gibbs if the you know running game isn't working they should be able to pass them their way out of things and

if the defense takes a step forward maybe even like the 15 to range in terms of rankings i think that'll make a big difference for this team going forward yeah clark they're not going to sneak up on anyone this year obviously they were you know somewhat of a especially in our bubble somewhat of a popular sleeper team that people wanted to get behind because there was you know some moving parts here that were encouraging and i think it was uh panned out in the second half of the season um you know connor makes mentions of some of the defensive edges like they have three second year edge rushers with Hutchinson, Houston, and Pascal. They did not address that at all in the draft. And I thought that that was a solid vote of confidence for them.

I saw a tweet from you earlier today, and I think we're kind of aligned and we're maybe out on a limb here a little bit, because obviously the lions took a beating in the drafts community in terms of value. And I do think that it's, you can't really argue the other way. They definitely handled it the wrong way in terms of position. And I do think that it's, you can't really argue the other way. They definitely handled it the wrong way

in terms of positional value, right? But at the end of the day, I think that they maybe had flipped some of the values. Like if they would have grabbed Brian Branch where they took Jameer Gibbs, for instance, I think perception would have been way different. Overall, I don't think you can argue that there was a massive talent upgrade

with what they did in the draft, even though they kind of did it ass backwards and comparatively how we think about positional value in the draft, but it's a better team after the draft. Yeah, I agree. I mean, we talked about how they finished last year. They ended the season eight and two, and one of those two losses was a last second field goal loss to the Buffalo Bills. So they finished the season really, really strong. And especially when you think about them having a new offensive coordinator they dealt with some injuries early on they had three consecutive losses that didn't look good but in those games Aminara St. Brown and DeAndre Swift both both missed time and the reason why that's significant you might say well you know one or

two skill players like why does that make such a big difference and the reason that's so significant is because of how the Lions run their offense, how Ben Johnson has designed this thing. During the season, I don't get a lot of time to dig into the X's and O's. I'm watching all the film, but I'm watching it more holistically. In the offseason, I like to go back and really watch some people break down the film, what the guys are doing, why it's working, why it's not. And what I love about what the Lions do is they set up the defense for failure, right? So they have an elite offensive line, and they'll set up maybe defense for failure, right? So they have an elite offensive line and they'll set up, you know, maybe two wide receivers, two tight ends

and a running back, for example, which is a big set and forces the defense into a big set to stop the run. But then what they'll do is they'll move those guys around. And now all of a sudden the tight end splits out, the running back splits out wide. And now you've got four receivers

with your inside slot being a number one receiver, like Amon Ross St. Brown matched up against potentially a defensive end or a linebacker. And those kinds of moves create mayhem for defenses trying to cover it all. And that's why I like the Jermaine Gibbs pick and the Sam Laporta pick in round two is what they've done is they've built their offense around players that have to be able to play multiple positions and Gibbs can play running back and receiver. So that ability to switch formations pre-snap makes everything easier for Jared Goff after the snap, because all he has to do is identify one, where the space will be, or two, where the mismatch is. And Jared Goff is not the best quarterback in the league, but if you give him easy throws, he'll make them. And so what I really liked was how that offense developed over

the course of the season, how Ben Johnson got comfortable. And then when they played the same team twice, they typically played much better offensively in game two than in game one, because they saw what defensive looks those teams were going to the table, what they can do with Laporta, what Jameson Williams can do once he comes back from suspension. I think the ceiling is very high for this offense. Jared Goff with a strong skill set um you know around him supporting cast wise and a strong play caller and he's been above average so now we know if we get Jared Goff outside of a dome in cold weather late in the year that's problematic but uh you know there is a path here for them to you know kind of take control of you know the NFC is wide open it's not just this division which I think we all kind of agree is is fairly wide open Really, the conferences really outside of, I think, Philadelphia and San Francisco kind of being above everyone else. We can make cases for Dallas is in there too. But otherwise, it's a very different landscape than what we have in the AFC.

So Johnson declining any really interviews that would matter coming back and wanting to run this back, I think, is encouraging. They had to outscore people in that eight to two run down the stretch. I think they probably still do. They upgraded the secondary a little bit. Cam Sutton, Manuel Mosley set to start at corner. CJ Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch, who we mentioned, there's some other depth at safety.

It's just markedly improved from what they had last year. Jack Campbell, you know, taking a big bodied, you know, off-ball linebacker early early got a lot of raised eyebrows, but like he's got good instincts. I think he makes an immediate impact on early downs. They had a, I think one of the worst linebacker course in league last year. Does that really play itself out massively from a win loss standpoint? Probably not, but they sure up the run defense too.

I think with that, and if they have some of those second year edges emerge, they could be a little bit more interesting defensively. They were really, really bad and we'll have to outscore people again, probably. But if they get closer to the middle of the pack, that's a really different story for this team. Now, second place finish, they are in a very difficult, unique three in terms of the schedule. They have Seattle, they go at Baltimore and at Dallas. That is really tough. They also have road games in Kansas City, in LA against the Chargers. So that's a little bit harder in terms of the schedule. Now, golf, I think, is going to be good again. But you look at some of the underlying metrics here.

Career low interception rate last year. But all of his other metrics are right in line with his career averages in terms of actually higher dropbacks. But in terms of turnover- worthy plays and things like that, there was some dropped interceptions that he benefited from. I do think the offense gets better with Laporta because there was really a turnstile at tight ends after they moved off from Hawkinson. I think even the Denzel Mims trade that happened yesterday,

I think helps raise the talent level at the position while they wait for Jamison Williams to come back. So like I wanted to kind of, I'm with Connor. Like I wanted to say, Hey, look, I feel like maybe they're a little inflated in terms of the

perception after last year, but like, I don't know. How's the best way to bet them, Connor? What are you looking at? I mean, nine and a half wins.

We're looking at like minus one 22 on FanDuel is the best number, the division number at plus one 55. Any interest in any of those ways to bet the lions? Yeah. Honestly, I think if you want to bet the lions yeah honestly i think if you want to bet like if you're really bullish on them you're probably better off just taking an alt over or something like that i think that's like if you really think they hit their ceiling

outcome personally i'm just i think that they're just very properly priced which i know is boring to say but that's just kind of where i'm at with them uh if if you want me to play something though i think there's two looks here i'm in r St. Brown to lead the league in receptions is 20. Clark, what do you got for your wait for Conor? Unfortunately, I don't have too much more to offer. I agree they're fairly priced, right? Their win total is 9.5 juiced over, which is more than they have actually won in many years. And they're clear favorites to win the division after not winning the division by

four games last year. So, you know, all this optimism that I've been espousing is already priced into the line. I don't really see a lot of value here. I just think that it's one of those things where I'm not fading. I'm not getting in the way of the hype. This is a hype train that I will let run and then I will react once the season gets going to see if, see if Ben Johnson's vision is, you know, coming together in year two. Yeah. I think that's probably the right way to, uh, to play it there. Connor, what are your thoughts now that you're back? Yeah. So I'm in Ross St. Brown lead league and receptions. I think it's interesting in 20 to one Sam Lipscomb mentioned I'm in Rob. It's a player of the year. That's a 40 to one is what we're seeing on some books so i think both those are fine also uh

marvin jones jr has a line on caesars it's 450 receiving yards i don't think he plays after jameson williams comes back uh i truly believe that it'll be like amon ross st brown and then jameson and then maybe like josh reynolds clee freyman denzel mims they're all i would say as good if not better than marvin j Jones at this point in his career. Marvin Jones last year was one of the worst in targets per route run, one of the worst in yards per route run last year. Just, he can't separate. He barely cracked 500 yards, and I was playing, like, almost all the snaps with Jarvis Lawrence last year. So I highly, highly doubt he's going to do very much with Detroit.

And if his contract wasn't already, like, slightly guaranteed, I think it's like 2 mil dead cap, like, I think he'd get cut because he's going to do very much uh with detroit and if his contract wasn't already like slightly guaranteed i think it's like two mil dead cap like i think he'd get cut because he's going to be terrible it's a good look uh yeah i think there's a lot of downside for uh for marvin jones at this stage of his career but uh yeah i i i'm excited for the jameson we want to see what can happen there when he gets on that field i think it adds another layer of that offense and you know moving on and you know changing the the room at uh running back to i think they kind of a wash david montgomery coming in as a chain mover and i think the jameer gibbs stuff could be really exciting too so all right we'll move on to uh the next squad minnesota vikings are 50 to 1 on points best number to get down for them to win the super bowl. Same place, 20-1 to win the NFC. They are plus 330 to win the division,

and their 8.5 win total is juiced to the over. You cannot tell the story of the 2022 Vikings 13-4 without talking about a historic 11-0 run in one-score games. Sometimes I think one-score game record stuff is a little bit noisy because, you know, you're winning by seven and eight a lot, you know, without knowing any context of it, I think you can kind of get lost in that. But we have seen historically that typically regresses. The one thing that's interesting here with the Vikings is that in those four losses, they were all like double digit losses by,

you know, comfortable defeats. So it did kind of add to the fact that they were a team that was kind of skating by the skin of their teeth. And that's kind of baked into the line here. Now that we are at eight and a half across the markets, baking in some of that regression, Clark, let you get started with the Vikings. Yeah, it's going to be the most lukewarm back and forth summary ever because for years before last year, the Vikings story was, oh, they're an 8-8 team. They're a 50-50 team, 8-9-9-8 kind of team you can see the signal that they're going to come back down to earth and be an average team again. And you've got, you know, some things to be excited about, right? Brian Flores should make their defense a little more feisty. But on the other end, you're going to be losing Zedarius Smith. You're losing Eric Kendricks. You're losing Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson.

So what kind of pieces is he going to be working with and implementing this more aggressive defense? I don't know. Optimistic that, you know, Kirk Cousins can be even more confident in year two and Kevin O'Connell's system. But at the same time, you're losing Dalvin Cook. And I know that, you know, the analytics guys are like, oh, Dalvin Cook was washed. Like they're not really losing much, but I think they were, you know, like the screen game where Kirk C kurt cousins has that release against the blitz like dalvin cook has been serving that role for years and i just don't think that madison has the same level of explosiveness once he gets out in the open um even from last year so i think they're going to take a little bit of a hit there and then you know no

adam phelan again kind of washed but he's been a staple for years they're going to need uh jordan addison who i think just got booked for like 140 mile an hour speeding or something today. Might've been a rumor. I don't know, but they're going to need him to step up as a rookie. And I don't think KGI Osborne is going to be able to fill that full number two role. It's going to have to be kind of a split and Hawkinson can help too. But even then, you know, their schedule is brutal. You mentioned the Lions, three unique opponents, the Vikings have to play the Eagles, the 49ers, and the Bengals in their three, you know, at-large games. That's absolutely brutal. So I think there's just, you know, some things to be excited about, some things to be less excited about. I think we're

going to be sitting here at the end of the year with another 8-9, 9-8 kind of finish, just like we're used to in the past with the Vikings. Yeah, Connor, I mean, Delvin Cook, like, I mean, I think he was the fall guy. I don't think it was really fair. The offensive line was dead last in the league in power success rates and metric over football outsiders. It measures the percentage of runs on third or fourth down two yards or less to go that achieve a first down or a touchdown also includes runs on first or second and goal that are from the two yard line and in like a really poor performance in terms of the offensive line on those things. 31st and stuff, right? Again, which measures the percent of runs that are running back is tackled

at or behind the line of scrimmage. It's hard to attribute that to Dalvin Cook, but again, they're moving on. I think that part of this is a really smart organization that understands that last year with 13 and four, you were closer to a 9-8, 8-9 team. You aren't necessarily positioned for a Super Bowl run. You're coming up at the end of Kirk Cousins' contract. Let's get off of some of these bigger contracts and really start to clean the books

and know what we need to do in the future when we need to move on and actually really start to transition this team to move forward. Yeah, I don't think that Dalvin Cook was necessarily like they thought he was bad. I just didn't think he was worth whatever, $13 million or whatever they were going to pay him. And I think that's kind of an interesting difference there that not everyone's specifically talking about. So I think that Madison will be fine. Like you said, he's not as good as Dalvin Cook.

But I agree in the sense that I think that the Vikings are probably going to be average record-wise. But I think that I'm a little bit more extreme on both the offense and defense than Clark, you are. So I think the offense is going to be significantly better this year for multiple reasons. I mean, Adam Thielen's yards per outrun is dipped in six consecutive years, was the worst separator, one of the worst separators against man coverage last year, according to SIS data. Now Jordan Addison, you know, came in as like Daniel Jeremiah's top 10 player overall, who's known for separating ability. I just think,

I understand that as a rookie, it's tough to like step in and be awesome. But I think he has such a great opportunity with Justin Jefferson taking away a lot of coverage there. Not to mention TJ Hawkinson trade midway through the year. We saw it. We incurred cousins, man versus zone splits early in the year was literally the, one of the worst quarterbacks against man.

Then they traded for TJ Hawkinson and it made a massive difference for them. Like he went from, you know, terrible to at least average because he had someone else who could separate there. It's kind of why they struggled against a team like the lions earlier as well. So the offense, I expect to be significantly better passing wise. And the running game maybe takes a hit, but I just, I'm not sure how many positions they're going to be running in because their defense, I'm very nervous about. I think in this spot, I think that Flores

is maybe an upgrade from a coaching perspective, but if we look at their starting corners, we're looking at like Makai Blackman, a third round rookie, Caleb Evans, who allowed 16.1 yards per reception, allowed 15 of 22 targets to be caught and was a fourth rounder last year, or Andrew Booth, who allowed 16.1 yards per reception, allowed 15 of 22 targets to be caught and was a fourth rounder last year. Or Andrew Booth, who is injured but allowed, you know, was terrible when he did play.

I mean, there's maybe not evidence that that secondary is going to be atrocious, but like there's certainly no evidence they're going to be good or even like average. So like we just don't know. And so I think it just requires Flores to come in and like instantly change that. But I think that's like a massive deficit for this team. So for me, I think the defense is going to be worse. I think the offense is going to be as good, if not better. And the note from quarterback that I mentioned, like Kirk Cousins week two or three was like, yeah, I don't really know the system still.

Like I, he had multiple things. He's like, I should have audibled here. Like, he's like, I just didn't remember it or something like that. It's like, well, you know, that's a pretty big blunder to not know. Like, you know, uh, and they just like ate a play you know so i think as they progress they'll get better uh and it'll all blend together so i'm a little more excited i think on the offense i expect similar from the offense right i think kurt cousins and you know clark you tell me if i'm wrong i think for the most part in his career he's a average to above average

quarterback that will take advantage of bad opponents. And then when he has to play up in competition, he can kind of get exposed a little bit. That's in the spot where he's not necessarily a talent elevator to take him to the next level. I have equal concerns about the defense. We talked about it on our coaching scheme change episode looking into this. There is not a bigger scheme change from Ed donatel to brian flores in the league with anything that happened this offseason like very very predictable defense last year the vikings were almost always in too high shell played a ton of zone light box rarely blitzed flores in miami the last year he was there miami played the least amount of too high zone in the

league they ran man coverage of one of the league's highest rates, are almost always with a stacked box, and led the league in blitz rate. Now, that's harder to do when you don't have corners to really lock it down like he did in Miami. And you mentioned all those guys really outside of Byron Murphy are in their first and second year. Even Byron Murphy is really not that guy. He's a recognizable name, but he's not a guy that teams should be avoiding or worrying about. So can they hold up?

And all those, you know, man outside looks, like that makes me really, really nervous. It's not a great, you know, pass rush team in terms of talent. It's going to have to be schemed up. So like when they don't get home, those guys are going to be exposed in man coverage. And that's just a really tough place to be. And then again, we go back to the schedule.

Probably one of, if not the toughest, unique three draws in the league, San Francisco at Philly at Cincinnati, and a couple of those come really early in the season. So Jefferson is good enough to steal a couple of wins by himself. Yeah, I think that there's, depending on the extremes, like if Flores gets a lot out of these guys like there is a path to a playoff berth but in terms of like repeating or getting closer being in the division when you're here i don't feel really confident about that there is a i'm gonna

lay a little juice on caesars at minus 150 but under three and a half wins in the division is a look that i like i don't love laying that much juice, but Clark, what's your preferred weight about the Vikings? I don't think I'm betting the Vikings either at these prices. I think one thing, you know, maybe an alternate under, because is there a team in the NFL that is more vulnerable to one skill player injury than the Vikings are if Jefferson gets hurt? I mean, like what's, what's the Vikings win total this year if they have no Jefferson and everything else is the same right it's got a five and a half it's it drops significantly right so so I think you know I never want players to get hurt I never want to root for that but it happens and you know maybe it's just a couple games and then the defense doesn't put it together and they start getting burned like there's there's a lot of a lot of ways this can go downhill you know like

if I know Cousins wants to win a Super Bowl like you know one of the things from watching quarterback is like his dedication and his focus is so so incredible to watch but if if that's out the window and they know that they can't win this year you know like they might start looking towards the future you know Hinton Hooker might get some starts like I don't know if any of that's actually going to happen like I wouldn't say it's likely but you know if you're gonna play the Vikings I think there are some, some, you know, downside cases that might happen. Yeah. Taylor comes there. Connor, what are your thoughts on betting the Vikings? Yeah, I definitely have want no part of betting them to win actual games, but I do think given kind of my bullish nature on the offense, I think

most points scored in the league is very interesting. If their defense is just getting boat raced every week. I think their offense is capable of keeping up with basically everyone, you know, outside of maybe a couple elite defenses. But even then I really, I think, I think Addison and Jefferson are going to be closer to like a Jamar chase T Higgins combo this year than what we're seeing are then kind of the expectation. So I'm, I'm excited about them generally. So I think they're like, that's like 20 to one most points scored. So I think it's a decent look at that price. I don't know which team to do next because in the market, they're pretty much equals.

And I think that that in itself is a very interesting discussion. But we'll start with the Chicago Bears. The Bears are 66 to 1 to win the Super Bowl on MGM, 30 to 1 to win the NFC on DraftKings. Points bet at 4 to 1 has the best price to win the division. And their win total at 7.5 is slightly juiced to the over. Really low expectations last year. They delivered on those low expectations.

First year head coach Matt Eberflus was taking over one of the worst rosters in the league. I think the main question that needed to be answered was, is Justin Fields a viable long-term solution at quarterback? I'm not sure that they got that answer necessarily, though they did kind of speak with their actions in the offseason here. They were able to kind of back into the number one spot, but they were able to trade that to Carolina for a haul that included DJ Moore and a ton of picks for the future. The really cool part for Bears fans is, look, if we aren't as optimistic as you are here for the current version of the Bears, they are set up to answer that question in the future. If Fields is not the guy,

combination of whatever they have in terms of pick equity and whatever they can get from Carolina, they'll be well positioned to address the position next year's draft that has a couple of guys at the top of the board that make a ton of sense. Connor, let's get started with the Bears. Yeah, this team for me, I don't want to touch too much on the defense. I think you can probably get into that, but they added a couple of players that will make an impact, but they didn't add none necessarily at like a difference making positions, you know, two off ball linebackers is obviously great, but not quite what they needed, especially considering the back half last season, they were like a bottom three defense by basically every metric. But really this team comes down to whether or not the offense and Justin Fields could take a next step as like a passing offense.

And I think that that like wholly changes their outlook depending on yes or no. If the answer is no, we're going to see probably a lot of, it's going to be very similar to last year. And I think that it's going to be Justin Fields, not trusting his offensive line, progressing slowly through his reads, missing open players. If you look at, there was some great, I believe it was, I don't remember off the top of my head, but maybe Sportfolio Kings or something like that did some great research on players get like how often a quarterback misses their open receivers and how often they're actually throwing open receivers. So Justin Fields last year, despite his wide receivers getting open at like the 11th highest rate in the league, he was bottom two in both accuracy to open receivers and throwing to open receivers.

Now, some of that is because he's scrambling so much and creating time and like wedding, letting people get open, but he's still not finding them. And I think that some of that's overblown because of the cadence that's lost with the offensive line, just blowing blocks and with the, you know, wide receivers not consistently getting open because he had terrible pass catchers. But if that's broken, like he needs to almost go back to square one. Like, can he make throws and rhythm? Can he like actually execute what needs to happen? And I think that DJ Moore allows him to do that. I think Chase Claypool, if he pans out,

could allow him to do that as well, along with Darnell Mooney. But I have concerns that that just like happens. And so, because from what we've seen so far, he has been a downright awful passer in my mind in a lot of ways. And I don't know if it's his fault. I don't know if it's a receiver's fault.

I don't know whose it is, but it has not been pretty in more ways than one. But I guess the upside case is like Ohio State, he was a great passer and he was like, awesome. And so that's kind of the bull case, I think, if you want to make one. I know Clark has been a little bit higher on fields previously,

but I'm interested to hear his thoughts in generalist offense, because I think it could go, I mean, either way. I think while he's healthy, he raises the floor of the offense a little bit in situations where the offensive line isn't great and the receivers aren't great because he can create time, right? He can extend plays, make it harder on defenders. But even last year, they changed the offensive a little bit

right around that Patriots game where he started getting out of the pocket more. I liked what they were doing, but even then they ended the season 0-10. They lost the last 10 games and two of those games weren't Fields games, granted. But that brings me to the second point, which is Fields is a major, major injury risk, right? I've had this conversation in the past, you know, and people have been like, look at the data. It shows that mobile quarterbacks, running quarterbacks aren't more likely to get injured than pocket quarterbacks. And one, I just, I don't think that's true. Like that's a small sample size argument that is heavily skewed by the fact that two of the most prolific rushers have been Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick, both of whom were really good about not getting hit,

right? Lamar Jackson gets out of bounds. He slides. He's just very, very good at controlling his body to avoid those bad hits. Justin Fields is the opposite. He takes hits all the time. He slides really late. And a lot of times he induces those late hit penalties on defenders that are already in the process of tackling before he starts sliding.

And that's great for the immediate first down. And, you know, like taking advantage of that sort of loophole in the rules is really nice, but it's not good for his body. And the second thing is the reason why pocket quarterbacks get injured is because they get sacked a lot. Like we have a high correlation between sacks and injury. So even if your argument is mobile quarterbacks don't get injured more often, Justin Fields gets sacked a lot. He takes a lot of sacks. So not only is he running out and getting hit, he's also taking sacks. He has not made it through a year yet without getting injured. You know, last year we saw Jalen Hurts get hurt. We saw Lamar Jackson get hurt. We saw Daniel Jones didn't get hurt for the first time in his career, which is pretty cool. But

for the most part, I just can't put any faith in him lasting a whole 17 game season based on what I've seen so far. But even if he does, I share the same concerns as Connor. His inability to make rhythm throws and see the offense and consistently hit people when they break open is just an impediment to ever being a successful quarterback in the NFL. So he's going to have to get materially better. And yes, D.J. Moore will help. Yes, the offensive lineman will help.

I would expect some improvement next year, but not the kind of improvement that's going to carry a really bad defense to a winning record. That just seems very far-fetched to me. Yeah, I think DJ Moore comes over and slides everyone else in probably a more appropriate position in the pecking order in terms of what they do. And DJ Moore has been a guy that has really elevated poor quarterback play in his career um you know 1.94 yards per outrun for a career in five years with the quarterbacks he's played with is a really elite number the problem with the field stuff is i'm with you guys he led the league in a trio of stats that you not want to lead the league in last year and now that was turnover worthy play rate

again referenced a pff stat that i think is um when you look at the list, it feels like there's something to that. I haven't done a lot of homework on it, but I like the stats. Time to throw, again, which is kind of speaking to the points that you guys are making, and pressure to sack rate. So how many times are those pressures converted into sacks? It's a quarterback stat. He needs to be more decisive. He has to work through the progressions quicker,

and he has playmakers. He needs to get the ball into their hands more he is a electric playmaker with his legs we saw last year in your reference there was a shift with that pass game where they it's the scramble rate had been higher and all of a sudden you saw the design rate spike and that's when we started to see these big rushing outputs from fields and just kind of lasted all season long can that hold up can he physically hold up i think it's fair to have questions now i think the offensive line exceeded expectations last year they were fifth in one block win rate they've gotten better um and i think adding you know darnell writes and that

also does another thing where it shifts some of the people into the right spots um they're not a great pass blocking line so they need to do a better job there too but again i think some of that is a little noisy statistically because that kind of goes in line with what fields does in terms of how he holds the ball so defensively connor you like brushed back on it a little bit like they were bad but they were like historically bad last year down the stretch especially you know they had the roquan smith and robert quinn trades and then from there like they the gap between them and the rest of the league, even like the Raiders who were 31st in league was massive. Like Cleve TA had it in his preview,

like the gap between the bears and the Raiders from 32nd to 31 was the same gap in EPA per play down the stretch that it was from the Raiders at 31 to the chargers at four. Like, like that is a, they weren't just bad they were like historically bad and they had a bunch of money to spend in the offseason and i would have loved to have seen them throw some money like too much where we would have been critiquing their jamal dean deal or

someone that they threw money in like an edge rusher or something like they threw a ton of money at two off-ball linebackers. And I don't know. I know Chicago loves having some great linebackers, and it's part of the ethos of the city, and they love it. I don't know. Is that going to translate to wins and losses? I just don't see it happening. Corners are bad.

Safety room is young and not really great. Maybe there's some guys out there that can add late and that are still out there, free agents that can help. But, man but man the 20 sacks by far the least in the league last year i don't know really how that number improves based off what they have so i don't know how to bet the bears there's an interesting price if you are a little bit down on them caesars has them at plus 150 to be fourth in the division we'll get there i think we're all a little bit more optimistic on the Packers. I think the Vikings could be in there. We talked about the wild range of outcomes.

I think two things could be true at the same time. I think we see a better, more exciting version of the Bears, and they're still probably not very good and probably the worst team in this division still, Clark. How do we bet the Bears? Yeah, I mean, I'm not outright fading them for the reasons I was talking about with the floor with Justin Fields, and then they did add a lot of players. You know, like, I don't like to have too strong of an opinion on teams that undergo a lot of change.

But I'm implicitly fading them by backing other teams in the division. You know, either the Packers or the Lions, I think, are teams you can get bullish on. And, you know, if you're playing the divisional bet, then that's a bet against the Bears implicitly. So I think that's kind of how I'm looking to play the bears this season. Connor, where are you at? Yeah, I'm going to look to fade them in season specifically,

but I think like an alternate under is fine. I think that clay pool unders are interesting. That's like five 50. I mean, he's like out there modeling in France while fields is, you know, playing with Mooney and, and DJ more.

I honestly think that there's going to be an opportunity to play some DJ Moore-unders too. I just have such little faith in a consistent passing offense that it probably won't be yardage-based because I think DJ Moore is a fantastic wide receiver, but I do think that from a reception standpoint and volume standpoint, it's going to probably still be pretty low. Yeah, I don't see it here.

Again, hopefully they are equipped to address some of these holes on the roster moving forward with the carolina trade which you know bears fans uh you know you hope you keep everyone healthy and have it work we just be cheering your pants off for uh the panthers to lose every game i think that is the best solution for your 23 24 season this year so uh we will move on to the Packers. Similar price, again, division or conference division Super Bowl, almost all the same, 66 to win the Super Bowl, 30 to win the NFC, plus 420 on Caesars to win the division. And they also have a seven and a half win total that is slightly juiced to the over. Obviously, we have not really seen a lot of

turnover at quarterback for the Packers in the last 30 years, which is a wild run to be over. Obviously, we have not really seen a lot of turnover at quarterback for the Packers the last 30 years, which is a wild run to be on. And you move on from a four-time league MVP that is noteworthy. We had basically up until last year, the Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers duo had produced three straight 13-win seasons. Last year obviously ended poorly. They had a chance to control their own destiny. Last game against Detroit at home to get into the playoffs, and they did not get there. Obviously, a lot of the questions surrounding this team, Clark, revolve around Jordan Love.

There is a prevailing narrative, which I don't really understand. Really, outside of a lot of optimism, if you read any Packers blog or find any comments about Packers fans, they are very optimistic that Jordan Love is going to be more than adequate. I do think based off of a really small sample size of 21 dropbacks last year, one short notice COVID-induced start in Kansas City the year before, everyone's really comfortable saying that Jordan Love is not the guy. I'm just not really comfortable going there yet.

Yeah, I'm not either. I'm actually optimistic. I like every bet you just mentioned. Super Bowl, NFC,, I'm not either. I'm actually optimistic. I like every bet you just mentioned. Super Bowl, NFC, one total over division, all of it's good. I think the Packers are built to allow a player like Jordan Love to succeed in his first year. We look at the ways that quarterbacks have been drafted high and then waited, had to wait their turn behind an elite quarterback. And the types of situations where that has led to success have been situations like this, where the offensive play caller and head coach is solid, knows what he's doing, knows how to use his players. The offensive line is good. Now that is a question mark, right? There's some health

concerns, but assuming they're all healthy, they're a decent offensive line. They've got two really good running backs to take the pressure off Jordan Love, so they don't have to do everything, right? Even when Aaron Rodgers was winning the MVP and the Packers were a dominant offense, they used those running backs a ton, especially in the short passing game. These are the kinds of situations that help. And then their defense is absolutely loaded with talent. They've yet to live up to their expectations. I think there's been some valid criticisms of Joe Barry. But one thing that I really liked was their defense played better down the stretch, even though they dealt with massive injuries.

So I think the comparison between their defensive performance late and early is even more drastic based on the guys that they lost. Like Rashawn Gary missed some time. Hopefully he'll be back. Like if you remember the Lions game where they lost I mean the Lions had 13 points heading into that you know final drive where they scored the touchdown to win it you know they played the Vikings in their rematch and absolutely smothered them like Justin Jefferson had one catch so they they really improved and I think that's why they retained Barry and they have the talent and a lot

of young guys that I think they can keep that going. And then the last thing is their schedule. By my numbers, they face two teams all year that are ranked in my top 10 in the NFL. That's the Chargers and the Chiefs. Outside of that, every single team is average at best or slightly above average at best. So this is the kind of thing where it's like the balance is going to tip one way or the other. If Jordan Love can step in and live up to his draft capital and put the kind of thing where it's like the balance is going to tip one way or the other. You know, if Jordan Love can step in and live up to his draft capital and put the years of training under Aaron Rodgers to use and the offense clicks, they should be favored in just about every game. But if he sucks and he's just nothing and all his time was wasted, then they're going to be underdogs in every game. Right. So this is kind of a balancing thing where I'm tilting towards the over and the optimistic side. But I think you want to try and play the high-end outcomes, right? Winning the NFC, winning, you know, getting to the Super

Bowl. I doubt they can win it, but you know, who knows? Winning the division, those kinds of bets, I think, are how I like to look at this Packers team. Yeah, so not just Jordan Love, Connor, we have questions about his entire supporting cast offensively in terms of playmakers, you know, pass catchers for the most part, right? Your receiving group, your tight ends are first and second year guys, right? We saw flashes of Christian Watson, massive big playability, especially in the second half. He posted an elite 2.26 yards per route run, which is outstanding.

In making plays down the field, Romeo Dobbs kind of reversed, got off to a strong start and then cooled a little bit, you know, but they've added, you know, some more depth at that position again in second and third round picks the last couple of years. I think it comes down to love,

but there are a lot of exciting upside possibilities here with this Packers team. Yeah, we're going to see them probably go run heavy. I don't think that that's a shock to anyone here. And I would say limit Jordan Love.

And I think my biggest concern, the more I dug into Jordan love as a player, this is something that I actually noticed via, via our projections. We have Jordan love projected for 19 interceptions this year. So I texted Paulson, our resident Packers fan and was like, Hey man,

like what, what's the deal with this? This seems outrageously high. And he was like, well, Jordan love through 17 interceptions in his final year in college, he's coming to the league with a 3.6 interception rate on 80 pass attempts against very small sample size.

But then in preseason was also throwing interceptions. So we have multiple samples of him generally not taking care of the ball very well in a lot of areas. And I think that is potentially, I would say my only counter argument to them being significantly underrated is that if you can't take care of the ball, if you're turning the ball over, turnover margin is like one of the best predictors in the game of like who wins the game. I mean, it's just, it's not predictable in terms of like what you did will happen. But I mean, the last I checked, it was like 75 to 80% of the time if you won the turnover margin, you won the game. So like that's obviously a big deal, especially for a team that's built potentially to avoid that. So it's just gonna be a matter of whether you take care of the ball, but then you have Christian Watson, who I'm a known, you know,

hater. I went, I looked at Matt Harmon's reception perception. It was a little bit better than I thought, but I think what he made clear was he's a below average separator against Romeo Dobbs and Jaden Reed can probably help round that out in the short to intermediate areas. It's just like, I don't think Watson's going to be a true number one at this point based on what we saw last year. So I'm interested to see how that pans out at Jordan. Love to take care of the ball. I totally agree. Packers very underrated offensively and defensively there specifically two players in grade. Well, but I think it might be a little noisy i mean eric stokes 105th out of 118 corners darnell savage 87th out of 88 safeties again like i'm not watching darnell savage in every single place i'm going to trust pff that there are probably a little bit more question marks there than uh what suggested but clark brought up some

great points about them playing better down the stretch and this always seemed like a defense that has a ton of talent on paper looks good but then just hasn't really lived up to expectations. Yeah. And that's it. That's the, you know, Joe Barry is, you know, Clark mentioned is, you know, that been, I think reasonably so on the right side of some criticism because they have just sunk so much early round, especially first round capital on the defense, right. It's just been kind of a joke on the other side that, Hey,

the Packers don't want to support Aaron Rogersgers and give him playmakers because what they were doing is just bolstering this monster defense in terms of first round picks. And a lot of it hasn't really panned out. Like, yeah, Jair Alexander and Eric Stokes missed a bunch of time last year. Their top two corners. That's a problem. Your best pass rusher missed the chunk of the season. That's a problem that doesn't really, neither any of those guys don't really impact how the run game works as much. And they were gashed again. I think they were 31st in EPA per rush allowed for the second consecutive year. They've drafted a lot of guys in the middle of that defense. They got to figure that out. I don't know if that scheme or player

specific, but they have to be able to solidify that and stop it a little bit. Jair Alexander is a difference maker. If you have him on the field for 17 games, he allows you to be multiple in different ways that some of these other guys can be able to make impacts. Now you need some of these guys to step up and make plays. Another first round pick this year was Lucas Van Ness to go with Preston Smith and Gary at edge. It's a really nice group. Kenny Clark up front.

Devontae Wynn was a first-round pick the year prior, along with Quay Walker. Devontae Campbell. These are really good players in the middle of this defense. So it's on Barry to get a little bit more out of them. Really, I think outside of the Lions offense, which we all agree is elite, you can make the case that the Packers have a path of their defensive unit could be the best unit in this league. That's hard.

Last year they were like 26th in EPA per play. But again, all the pieces are here for this to happen. Again, they are set up to run the ball very well, take care of it defensively if Jordan Love doesn't do the things that Connor was saying, and that's create short fields for the defense, turn the ball over, and put them in bad positions. So I'm agreeing with Clark. There's a little chunk in the schedule in the middle that's really it like weeks 10 through 13 they play at pittsburgh the chargers detroit's in kansas city otherwise

the start of the schedule and the end of the schedule are very very soft they have an early buy in week six like you can look at that schedule, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit at home, and Las Vegas, like, they could be in a really nice spot heading into the buy, and we have some answers probably pretty quickly on what's happening with this team. So that's, I think, really interesting. I'm with you, Clark. I know I think Connor is too.

I think some of the early numbers that were out there in terms of to win this division at, like, 5-1 or even higher were really nice were really nice draft king still has them at plus 180 to make the playoffs which i think is a nice number again looking at the totality of the conference there's a path here even if they say fall short of the lions and you know moved ahead of the bears comfortably in the vikings i think it's still back in the playoffs here too so uh clark what's your preferred way here that's still available uh to bet on the back Uh, current bet that is still available is 30 to one to win the NFC. I think tapping into that upside. I think another thing that we sometimes forget is, is we get so into the analytics and the numbers and the data, because that's how we consume the NFL. Like

a lot of people that bet, that's how we think. But there are cultural things that happen in teams that go beyond the numbers. And Aaron Rodgers leaving and Jordan Love taking over. This is a guy that the players all seem to really like. They seem to like his leadership. They think they love the way he's handled himself over the last few years in waiting for his time and not trying to, you know, stir it up or anything like that. And so, you know, you could see all these talented players that underperformed last year, you know, suddenly up or anything like that and so you know you could see all these talented players that underperformed last year you know suddenly things start to click the momentum in the building is better people are more humble people are more team oriented like you can't rely on these types of things you can't really like model it but these cultural shifts happen and i think that with matt

lafleur finally being like the big dog in the room. I think we could see some positive changes overall for this team. That's a great, great point. I think their path to hallucinogenics is a little bit trickier, but I think otherwise, like there is something to be said to like what happens in the locker room with that dynamic. It's great, especially with the young receiving core, a young group of, you know, again, you knew, hey, I walk into my guys, this is Devante Adams,

and I trust him, and if you're off and you're dead and I walk into my guys, Devante Adams, and I trust them. And if you're off and you're dead and I don't trust you, like I won't even go to you. And I think you saw that maybe even with Romeo Dobbs in the second half of the year too. So excellent, excellent point. Yeah. I mean, you can see the confidence just drain when Aaron Rogers like stares you down after a play, like, man. Yeah. Yeah. The Christian Watson 75 year drop on the first play of the offensive season against the Vikings. And then just like, I mean, he was kind of injured for half the year too, but he like very clearly was not going to get the ball for another six weeks.

And then Jordan Love comes in against Philadelphia and hits him for a 67-yard touchdown. It was like he couldn't grip it any better. Yeah. Connor, how are you betting the Packers now? Yeah. One bet that I just made and released to our subs I thought was interesting was Jordan Love to lead the league in interceptions. That was 16 to one, still 13 to one. Again,

we haven't projected for three more interceptions than the next closest guy. And he's also not at risk of getting benched, which I think is a big deal because there's an interesting correlation between obviously players doing a lot of picks, you know, they're more likely to get benched, especially some of the fringe guys, like a, you know, hate to say it, maybe like a Sam Howell, Desmond Ritter are, you know, benchable in a sense that were, if they threw like 20 interceptions. But, you know, yeah, I know, I know that Desmond Ritter caught a stray there, but like, I just don't think Jordan Love is at any risk of getting benched. That's not fair. Yeah. I mean, I I'm, I'm again, I want to be realistic too, because there is a downside as Connor, I think, did a good job laying out what happens here with Jordan Love.

But everything else is there, like the offensive line, especially if the left side of the offensive line with Jenkins and Bakhtiari can stay on the field. That is a fantastic left side of your offensive line that you can move the chains behind. It's a nice combo of running backs. I think both. I mean, I think A. think aj dylan's surprised in terms

of his ability as a pass catcher so far in his career you can use both of those guys out of the backfield uh you know pass catching role too i think those things can help support a young inexperienced quarterback who also has the level of athleticism that again i know aaron rogers can move in in the pocket a little bit but i think you could see some more things and give a little floor another layer to the offense that we didn't have at the last couple of years in terms of where late-stage Aaron Rodgers is in his career. So that, I think, is another element that Jordan Love brings

that Rodgers didn't have. So, yeah, they're exciting to me, and I think the division is very interesting because I think it's going to be fun to watch. All four teams have some exciting levels. I think there are some questions about defense really across the board so we we can have some shootouts here. So yeah, it's definitely an interesting division. Again, head over to 444.com. You can read Clark's article. You can read mine on the division, getting some longer thoughts on what we touched on today. But I think this is good stuff. It's going to be an interesting one. So anything else for the folks, Clark,

before we wrap up no all good uh go bet on the packers it's been steaming all off season for good reason yeah connor anything for you uh you know toss me a like or maybe reply on one of my threads and i'll be much appreciated yeah connor's got a good thread out there on twitter today around uh prop betting uh as he typically does it correlates with the article that he put up on the site recently as well. So you can head over to the site and read something from all three of us. We will be back next week. Same spots to wrap up the NFC.

Again, head over to 444.com. Jump in the show notes here, wherever you're listening or watching. You can find out how to gain access to our betting sub for super cheap. Get all the picks, all the stuff that we do all season long. for clark and connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everyone