Move The Line - Everything You NEED to Know About the NFC West

Episode Date: July 27, 2023

Dive into our comprehensive guide on the NFC West for the 2023 NFL season. This video provides everything you need to stay informed, from the best betting odds, to insightful predictions, and top picks. Our expert analysis covers all teams in the division, giving you a strategic edge for your bets. Tune in to gain the upper hand in understanding the dynamics of the NFC West. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU NFC West Betting Preview  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3DuIygb

All right, everyone, we are just six weeks away from the start of the NFL season. Training camp started around the league. We are getting close, continuing our division preview series here with a deep dive of the NFC West. Let's dig in. Yeah! Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends to talk football.

Should be a fun one. We are wrapping up the NFC West here. Joined as always by Connor Allen and Sharp Clark should be a fun one we are wrapping up the nfc west here joined as always by conor allen and sharp clark connor how we doing great i feel like now we're like so close to the season now i'm just excited i'm looking forward to week one looking forward to props like the more that i start talking about this at this point uh i'm i'm jazzed you know and releasing a ton of plays in our discord lately it's just been i'm getting hyped i'm getting hyped yeah i hate the golf betting's going away because i love betting on golf i love like the process of uh monday sorry process of like a monday through wednesdays all the different ways that you can bet the game i am i've been in the weeds in the tackle street i am very much ready for uh you know props in a

very different way moving forward like last year was something I jumped in mid-season, but this year I'm excited from the jump from day one. Joining us as always is our guy who decides to tackle the hardest market that there is out there is Sharp Clark. How are we doing, buddy? Good. I put a lot of thought into all my tweets and try to be deliberate about what I do. And then this morning I shitpost about Calvin Ridley, and it's my biggest tweet ever.

It's pretty frustrating how Twitter works. But now Twitter is broken for me for the rest of the day because it's just a flood of likes. It's very interesting. Yeah, Connor is very proud of you. Nothing feeds his soul more than likes. So, you know, I think living vicariously through you and your shitpost today I think has brought him a ton of joy. Look at that smile. Yeah, Kanish called me a welfare Sal Vitry the other day.

And I thought that that was unbelievably accurate. Uh, so yeah, I thought it was, I mean, one of his better, uh, one of his better disses for sure. I'm welfare Connor Allen today. Yeah. You're not that bad, Connor. I mean, it's like, I think there, there you will thread more than the average person. You thread far less than, uh, the handful of mean, it's like, I think you will thread more than the average person. You thread far less than the handful of folks that make that their entire brand and good for them. Like, you know, play the game, right? Like, you know, I'm the one sitting here like

hating on it. I can't believe this is how that works, but those people have, you know, 50,000 followers and hopefully for themselves, they're selling lots of subscriptions and all those things. I'll let Connor be the front man for that for us. I will stay right behind him. I'll encourage him, pat him on the back, go thread your way to driving a ton of subscriptions for all of us. So helpful as well. You can head over to the site, 444.com and read Clark and I's detailed written previews of each division that we've done so far on the show, including the NFC West, which we're going to break down here as well. You can get a betting subscription.

Great time to do that. You can just 444.com slash plans. It's going to get you everything on the site. We've partnered with Vivid Picks. Vivid, if you're not familiar, they're a pick-em site that's out there. Again, similar to some other ones that you know in the space. Use promo code 444BET when you sign up. They're going to match your first deposit up to two hundred dollars but just the five dollar deposit and playthrough is going

to get you a three month betting sub which if you do that now it's going to take you through week seven of the nfl season so that's a lot of really good content for just five dollars uh connor's going to be able to you know give you some vivid picks to jump into our discord uh we have lots of other people firing some of that stuff out there as well um so yeah great way to jump in because we're getting close closer than uh closer than you'd think so if you're hanging out with us on youtube thumbs up like the videos supporting the podcast as well all those things go a long way in supporting all the free content so all right the last one in the nfc the west is going to be an interesting discussion i think here i think it's a two horse race, but I'm interested to see what the gentlemen think here first. We'll start with the 49ers.

They are the favorites here. Clearly, they are 10-1 to win the Super Bowl. That is available on FanDuel. You can get them as well on FanDuel to win the NFC at 4-1. They are minus 160 on FanDuel to win the division. It's the best price out there in the marketplace. Their 10.5 win total is juiced pretty substantially across the board. Obviously, a great season last year, 13-4. Kind of a wild ride, Clark, and I'm going to kick it to you first. I mean, we thought it was the beginning of the Trey Lance era. We were kind of moving into that. Jimmy G had been kicked to the side.

We had one monsoon game in Chicago. He gets hurt really early in the second game. Jimmy G, of course, comes in, keeps the ship afloat, and then he goes down, which is obviously inevitable every season. And then Mr. Relevant, Brock Purdy takes over, takes them all the way to the NFC Championship game. Hassan Reddick absolutely eviscerates his right arm, and the Super Bowl aspirations of the 49ers go along with it. But again, great roster, but we'll just get started with the Niners. Yeah, I mean, they're solid top to bottom.

I mean, I kind of view this division, there's no such thing as a lock in the NFL. Like so many things can happen. But if I had to pick one team that I had the most confidence to win its division, it would be the 49ers. I mean, Kyle Shanahan has proven again and again what he can do with the offense, and they've got an unreal set of weapons and it's a it's a set of talented people like Debo Samuel, George Kittle, Juszczyk, you know Brandon Ayuk and and uh I feel like I'm missing someone oh McCaffrey um

it's not just that they're talented it's that they all do really unique things and Shanahan knows how to get them to do those unique things so it's it's a confluence of talent and scheme that is just really impressive their offensive line has been declining a little bit over the last couple years but it just doesn't seem to matter because of the way that Shanahan uses motion and using sets to create that space um Purdy should be should be fine it looks like um but even if not you know like trey lance and sam darnold would would likely be a downgrade but um i think they have enough pieces on offense to withstand some quarterback uncertainty just like they did last year um and then on defense they were just dominant

i mean they were a lot of times when a team has good defensive metrics over the course of a season it results from favorable matchups backup quarter quarterbacks, et cetera. They've, you know, they played Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tua, Andy Dalton was underrated, Tom Brady, Gino Smith, three times, Matthew Stafford in both Rams games, you know, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields. This wasn't an easy schedule. They were just legitimately dominant on defense and they lost some pieces, but they also got Jason Hargrave. They lost the defensive coordinator.

You know, we'll see how much that matters. just expect um another strong season for the 49ers connor i want to get you up here because in earlier episodes and i forget which one i felt like we were getting some pro brock hurdy vibes from you um and i kind of agree i think there's some reporting that coming into the season he's probably more set up than any other scenario. We have a long history of Shanahan taking just, you know, Beth Hart and Nick Mullins and just anyone and kind of propping them up and being at least competitive. But last year, having Purdy come in and really no pressure, right? He was the quarterback three, last pick in the draft.

But coming out of Iowa State, it spent a lot of time with another Iowa State quarterback, Sage Rosenfeld, who was in the league for a long time, had his best career seasons in Houston with Shanahan. So it kind of, I think, softened and flattened the learning curve even more for Brock Purdy in this system where he's really able to hit the ground running. So I don't know. I feel like we've kind of cleared the first hurdle, which I think there was kind of a two-prong hurdle coming into the season with Brock Purdy. First, it was an injury. He's going to start the season and not be on the pop list. He looks like he's okay. Now we get to the question of what he did last season. Is that sustainable? Is that something that he can build upon or was last year going to be kind of a one-year wonder?

Yeah, I think that's a big question. Obviously, a 7.6% touchdown rate is bound to regress in some factor, but I just don't really think that that matters that much. When we look at when he took over week 13 on, the 49ers ranked first in yards per attempt, second in EPA per play, third in EPA per play on play action, fourth against the Blitz, eighth in completion rate, and ninth in success rate. Obviously, they had some losses on the offensive line. They lost two of their edges.

Jimmy Ward at safety. Defensively, I mean, currently they're favored in 16 to 17 games. But, you know, some of those are a little bit tighter. I think you put in your preview that I believe it's like eight or nine of them are within three points. That being said, I just think that this team is significantly better than the rest of the division at this point. So I think minus 160 is a little bit short, honestly, for me.

So like I would consider that. I think alternate overs are very much in play as well because they're saying the schedule right now is projected to be the fifth easiest. Now, obviously a lot of that has to do with playing Arizona in the Rams twice each, but at the same time, I mean, there's just a ton of ways that this team can win. And I really liked what I saw from Brock Purdy on the film without using those stats, just like the ability to, and willingness to push the ball down field a little bit more, take some more risks. And then obviously when you have Debo, Christian McCaffrey, Iuke, Kittle, like they have guys who can just win in every area of the field. And I think that that's such an advantage when paired with a, you know,

scheming mastermind like Kyle Shannon, that I think that they're just set up for so much success that they're not really all that fragile in most ways either. So that's kind of the big difference is like a lot of these top teams, I think could be a little bit fragile, like at the most important either. So that's kind of the big difference is like a lot of these top teams, I think could be a little bit fragile, like at the most important position. If someone else has to play, like the 49ers are probably still going to be pretty good. Like if Sam Donald has to play. And so that's kind of the difference for me is that like this team isn't necessarily predicated on quarterback. It's predicated on like

the depth and breadth of the system, I guess, significantly offensively. So I'm excited for them. I think you play them in a variety of ways. And I do think that they are significantly like by a lot, the best team in this division. Yeah. I think that's a great way of putting it. I think that's kind of a unique thing too. I think we so much like, we'll just kind of mention it. Everything's contingent on, you know,

contingent on the health of the quarterback. I just don't think this is that team, which is kind of wild to say that they probably have pieces that can be plugged in every year. I feel like when we get to this point, I'm doing the preview on the Niners. I'm concerned about the back half of the defense and it never seems to matter.

And I think when you go out and you add a Javon Hargrave to, to solidify the pass rush, I think their front seven is so good. It's so strong. I mean, we don't talk about Fred Warner very often by far the best linebacker in the league and incredible covered coverage linebacker. Dre Greenlaw next to him is an absolute stud as well.

So they're going to just not miss a beat, even with, again, like it's a great place to be for Steve Wilks, who definitely wanted a head coaching job, probably earned one with what he did last year in Carolina. But like he's taking over for D'Amico Ryans, who took over for Robert Sala. These guys are just getting head coaching jobs after spending some time in that defense defense so probably works out really well

I'm concerned I guess about the offensive line but even that when I dug in a little bit did some work like that worries me a little bit less like they did a good job at having well other quarterbacks get the ball up pretty quickly and Purdy was good at it he ranked 10th in PFF's passing grade he was sixth in adjusted completion percentage when he got the ball out within two and a half seconds of the snap. That was better than even what Jimmy G did, ranked 18th in PFF's passing grade. So I don't know, I'm a believer in Purdy. I think that there's room for him to continue to get going.

And I agree, there's a ton of ways to bet them here. Like they are five to one to start five and O. I didn't do the math. You're probably better off rolling over money line parlays and that um you know you can't get that now but you know you can you can look at that to start and look at the schedule to start it is really really soft um for them to get out there and again just find unique ways people like to get their their money down wherever they can and uh you know luckily draft kings is uh offering you quite a bit of a variety in ways

to do that, but it's a pretty light schedule to start for San Francisco. They play two on the road, Pittsburgh and the Rams, then the Giants, Cardinals, and Cowboys. So it kind of comes down to that Cowboys game probably. They're only a three-point dog or a three-point favorite at home, or I'm sorry, on the road in Pittsburgh.sburgh uh but i think that's interesting also four and a half wins in the division at plus 140 i think is interesting you're basically saying you're going to sweep the rams and the cardinals and then you need to split uh against the seahawks i think they're comfortable to do that and at plus 140 i don't think that's a bad number two and i'm kind of with connor all the win total overs i think are viable too clark how would you bet the niners i i? I don't like laying

a lot of juice on futures bets. So like, even if I think minus 160 is good value, which I think probably mathematically it is. I think I would lean towards that plus 140 over four and a half division wins. But even that, it's just asking for a lot of things to go right. And the plus 140 helps take some of the sting off that. I think I'm just hands off, and I'll look to be playing them week to week and see how they look. Yeah, I think without a doubt, it's a really good football team, and I'm with you. I think without having done all the homework on all the AFC teams yet,

just off the top of my head, I probably feel I'd be the most surprised, I guess, if a non-49ers team won this division. That, to me, there's only one option for that. And that would be our next squad. That is the Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks 40 to one on Caesars to win the Super Bowl. They are 16 to one to win the NFC also available on Caesars. Caesars has the best division price as well at plus 210. And their win total is juiced up on the over a little bit at eight and a half. I was very surprised that the Seahawks were what they were last year. We saw some six and a halves. I think it got down to five and a

half in the preseason last year. Concerns about really both lines, both sides of the football. We had a Geno Smith, Drew Locke quarterback battle. Really hard to see them taking a step forward off of a pretty poor 7-10 team led by Russell Wilson the year prior, but they were really good. I think they've continued to have back-to-back great drafts, Connor, and that, I think, helps quite a bit. It just bolsters the talent that I think was really kind of depleted across the board in Seattle.

Yeah, so I think their secondary projects to be really strong here with the addition of your guy, Devin Witherspoon. But I think there's some issues here in the trenches on both sides. And that's kind of where my worry is last year, 26 and EPA against the run 15th against the pass. So I think they can be exposed on the ground. We saw it with San Francisco. I mean,

like San Francisco and the playoff game, basically no intention of, of passing the ball. Cause they could just absolutely shell them, you know, whatever, whichever way that they wanted. Um,

I mean, offensive line, we have them 23rd Gino in the, Oh, I think this is a pretty interesting they wanted. I mean, offensive line, we have them 23rd Gino in the, Oh, I think this is a pretty interesting split here. It's talked about enough, but I didn't, wasn't able to like flesh out the numbers specifically prior to this through week 13, six and EPA per play offensively weeks, 14 through 18, they were 25th and EPA per play. Now in that sample, though, they played San Francisco, the New York jets, Carolina and Kansas city who came on late again, defensively, and then the Rams, uh, all with offensive line issues. So

like, I think that there's a little bit more noise to those splits than kind of what's given credit for. So where I end up on this team is a little bit like, I just think they're a little bit volatile. So I think that they do have the potential offensively if they play like they did earlier on in the season to potentially make a run with the addition of Jackson Smith and Jigba as well. Eighth and pass it over expectation. So they're successful in that regard. I think that it could be big for them. But like if they can't hold up in the trenches, run defense wise, offensive line wise, like both of those could be issues specifically.

So that's kind of where I line them. I just like, don't really know what to make of putting my chips in on, on Gino and like a, a team that greatly overperformed last year to like continually overperform again. It's a fair question, Clark. What are your thoughts on CL? I was bullish on the Seahawks last year, early on, and really liked what I saw out of Gino. But the reason why the back half or the ending streak, you know, at the end of the season three and six, the reason why it bothers me so much is because Gino kind of came out of nowhere, right? So defenses, when they were game planning for Seattle early in the season, either had no film or very little film on this offense with Gino Smith. They weren't watching Jets film from whatever, 2014 or whatever it was.

You know, and by the end of the season, they had all that tape. They knew how the Seahawks ran their offense and they, and they really shut it down. And yes, these were good defenses, but I'm thinking about how it felt to be watching those Seahawks teams. They had no chance of beating Kansas city. They were 10 point dogs. Didn't even cover. They had no chance of beating the Niners in the playoffs. They were 10 point dogs. Didn't even cover. Um, they had no chance of beating the 49ers at home. They were, I think, three and a half point dogs. No, you know, didn't cover.

Yeah, they beat the Jets. They lost to the Panthers. And then they beat the Rams in two games against Wolford and Baker Mayfield by a combined seven points. Like this was not a good team down the stretch. I remember having, I had NFC futures on them and the Packers at long shot odds. And one of them was going to make the playoffs. And I remember saying, I want the Packers to make the playoffs because

I don't think the Seahawks even have a chance to win the NFC, even if they do make the playoffs. And, and I, I get that they've improved over the off season. They've added some really key pieces and a lot of young guys are getting better. They got Bobby Wagner back that might help the run defense Jamal Adams coming back from injury. So they could be better. But I think they have to be a whole lot better to actually challenge the 49ers for the division unless the 49ers suffer a myriad of injuries. So I think the Seahawks are getting a little bit too much steam for my taste. I think they're an average team. And I think they should be treated as an average team against an average schedule, projected to win about eight and a half games. So I like the Seahawks a little more than you guys based off of that. Part of it is like, so obviously concerns about Geno. The thing with Geno is he is accurate. So yeah, I think that there were some, the accuracy I think did kind of carry on

throughout the season in terms of completion percentage over expectation. I think JSN coming in, working out of the slot adds a really nice element. He's really good at getting open. Gino's really good at being an accurate quarterback. They had bookend rookie tackles last year with Abe Lucas and Charles Cross. I think it's fair to expect those guys to take a step forward. Now, I also think part of the second half issue was not only the defenses that they played, they were really bad at running the football.

Now, that falls off. He's on top of the offensive line that we're talking about here like we saw a ton of big plays from ken walker but they were dead last and success rate like they couldn't do anything and we saw a lot of like ken walker had like barry sanders style runs right it was basically like hey he's getting just tackled in the backfields doing nothing we're seeing these massive home runs because he's a skilled back so i expect a little bit more from the offensive line. I think the JSN helps alleviate some of my concerns on Geno, but I'm not not concerned. I think the defense can be significantly better. I think that they've done a good job adding everywhere. Draymond Jones comes over to solidify the defensive line. He's been top six in run-stop win rate the last two years.

Last year in Denver, the year before, he was in San Francisco. That helps a lot. Bobby Wagner had the lowest missed tackle rate in the league last year. He's probably not the Bobby Wagner that they had five, six years ago, but he's still really good. They lost Jordan Brooks to a late ACL injury. He helps solidify that. They don't have much pass rush, but the sneaky thing is, that's actually the thing that Jamal Adams is best at. He helps solidify that. They don't have much pass rush, but the

sneaky thing is, is that's actually the thing that Jamal Adams is best at. He's terrible in coverage and they have a really nice safety group. They brought over Julian Love from the Giants, a friend of the show, a great tackle machine that we could plug him in out with, you know, with other guys. They can allow Adams to kind of be a de facto pass rusher to kind of make up for it. Now they've taken some swings in the draft to some of these guys, like a Derek Hall who they drafted on Auburn this year hits. That's my only real concern. Cause I think the corners are really nice.

I think, you know, with this one hits the ground running Tariq Wolin in his second year is probably going to continue to be better. So I think there's a lot of things to like here, if they can get some pass rush and everyone kind of takes a step forward after, you know, a lot of young guys, you know, and I think exceeding expectations in the first year. like here if they can get some pass rush and everyone kind of takes a step forward after you know a lot of young guys you know and i think exceeding expectations in the first year so i don't think that they're a real threat to the niners i agree with you but look the nfc is wide

open uh they can continue to build off of that with you know having alphas like dk medcalf i don't think we've seen the last of good seasons from tyler lockett i think it's a really nice group even zach chardonnay like the the kid from UCLA, he was really good. He was one of the best short down success runners in the, you know, FBS last year. Really good receiving back too. I think he's a nice compliment to what they could do there with Ken Walker. Probably a thorn in his side from a fantasy aspect,

but from a totality of a team building standpoint, probably a good addition. So, yeah, I'm not chasing the juiced eight and a half, but I'm okay with thinking that the Seahawks are kind of a back-end playoff team, especially considering that they have, I think, some easier wins in this division with kind of the rest of the teams

than they're going to have to play. Would you lay minus 120 on them to make the playoffs? Because that's what the issue is. I just like, I can't quite get there. And I also don't think they can win the division. So I just don't really know how to play this team. Yeah, it's tricky. I think it's a fair question.

Well, what did I mention here too? It's not like their schedule is super easy. So yeah, they have a really tough little slate in the middle, right? Weeks 12 through 15, San Francisco at Dallas at San Francisco and Ph philly that's brutal but i think it's a great home field advantage having to travel to the pacific northwest is tough they have four home games this season against opponents that are on the second leg of their back-to-back um and that's sometimes kind of noisy but like

statistically that's that's mattered when you've had to go to seattle so that does help a little bit in terms of their schedule but i mean that four-week stretch late in the season when you're kind of making a playoff run like we're gonna be here in week 16 week 17 going like here go the seahawks again uh look they got off to a really nice start now they're kind of coming back to earth because i think they probably do get off to a nice start and then again that's a gauntlet there at the crunch, you know, crunch time in the season. That's tough. Yeah. I did play also Gino Smith under 11 and a half interceptions this year. I think the addition of JSN is nice. I think if their defense takes a step forward, it could allow them to, I guess, not really pass as much if they don't want to.

And then beyond that, we haven't projected for like, I think nine or eight, something like that. And he had 11 last year and he had seven interceptions in his final eight games. So, I mean, without that stretch, like, you know, he's not even close to 11 and a half, 12. So I think there are a couple of positive factors there. Plus interceptions of a lot of different outs. Like, you know, if he gets somehow gets bench throws a ton of picks. I mean, I don't think it's likely, but you know, again,

it's possible if you like just bombs it early in the year. So a couple more outs there as well. If you like like the Seahawks maybe wait until they're in two and then bet them let's get into it then that turns that turns the page I think it's a clear tier to me I think that there are three tiers in this division I think it's the Niners I think of the Seahawks I believe the next two teams are closer than Clark thinks for sure so we'll start with the uh the first of those two teams, the Rams. They are 80-1 to win the Super Bowl. Points bet has the best number there, 65-70 at most other spots,

45-1 on DraftKings to go back to the Super Bowl. You can get them at 10-1 on FanDuel to win the division. And their win total, open at 7.5. Now you're looking at a slightly juiced under six and a half um i mean like seven and a half under was the first play i made this season uh those are long long gone um i'd be interested to see what clark thinks about that but again i just think that the unique approach to building a team has come back uh to bite them a little bit and they have i think a bottom two roster in the league.

And I know they're going to have Cooper cut back, and I know we're going to have Matthew Stafford back. We saw that last year for eight games. They were 31st in EPA per play with those two guys. And the team around them this year is significantly worse. Clark, I will give you the floor to talk about the Rams. All right. So, first of all, the numbers with Stafford last year, they faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses to open the Rams. All right. So first of all, the numbers with Stafford last year,

like they faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses to open the year. The Bills, when they had fully healthy Von Miller and a healthy secondary, you know, the 49ers twice, absolute wagon on defense, Cowboys. Those four games absolutely destroyed their EPA. In part because they had no offensive line. They were hurt on the offensive line. They didn't play well. They didn't have a run game, everything just kind of went downhill. And they were just flinging downfield shots. And it just wasn't working. I get that. They played

really well in the other games, right? They put up 31 on the Falcons in a blowout, even though it ended up four point when, you know, they played well on offense against the Cardinals, and they beat the Panthers 2410. So there was a significant split between the good games and the bad games. And ultimately, it's important when at this point in the season to separate your opinions of teams from season long projections and who are they now? Because those are two different questions. And I think there's a massive gap here for the Rams. Season long, I'm not buying any, you know, bullish Rams futures. I have no issue with your under bets. I see all the ways this can go way downhill. They're so thin. The offensive line

should be better, but it's still a little fragile. They may be trading Cooper Cup or Matthew Stafford by mid-season. We don't know exactly what downside there is here with this team, but who they are right now with a healthy Stafford and a healthy Cup and Aaron Donald and Sean McVay and an offensive line that is healthier and better than it was last year. I just don't like I don't understand how people can look at that regardless of what the rest of the roster looks like and say, well, they're a crappy team. Like they've got the most important pieces in place. Now, I recognize there are all kinds of holes everywhere else on the roster. So their upside is not there, in my opinion, long-term. But I just think that they're going to be a competitive team

with a bunch of really competitive players that do their job really well. Stafford might be the best quarterback in the NFC when healthy, especially when he's got Cooper Cup with this insane connection they've had the last couple years. So I'm thinking that separating out those two questions, I'm bullish on the Rams in the short term and I have no opinion on the longterm. Yeah, that's totally fair, right? Because this is going to be the best version of them. You would hope, assuming that they get through the preseason without any massive contributors going down,

especially the three, the three that you mentioned. They don't play those guys, right? I mean, if Stafford is healthy now, he's going to be healthy week one. Like he's not going to play in the preseason. Connor, what are your thoughts on the ramps yeah i just think this is such a great litmus test of how much star power really matters because i don't think we've ever seen a contrast where like there's three good players and then there's guys who are like should not be starting on the majority of other rosters and so like that's just a pretty stark difference where it's like most out rosters are built like,

there's a couple of star players, a couple other good players. And then there's maybe like one or two bottom feeders, you know? I mean, this roster has just like an unbelievable amount of guys who I've never heard of, or like have barely ever played.

I mean, I think it's almost their entire defense was drafted in the last two to three years has very minimal, you know, actual gameplay. And then we look at, right. So yeah,

like that's the thing is like, I can't tell you that they're bad because they just haven't played, but they're like fourth round picks that are like, that's the caveat too. And I think that's important not to cut you off because they've punted on all the early capital. These guys are all day two and day three picks as well. We see those guys come in and contribute and be really good. are a handful of them but when you need a like 10 of

them that's a very hard story to sell me on that's all sorry oh you're muted yeah you're off mute i cut it i cut you off and uh yeah and i went on mute uh so darion kendrick is one of these starting corners 117th out of 118 corners according to pff last year um we have a a kello witherspoon might might start i mean he was like terrible uh for the most part and then you have 180 pound kobe durant who was a fourth rounder i mean like i don't know i mean i guess some of these guys could be okay but like there's nothing to suggest that they are so it's going to be like aaron Aaron Donald has to be a one-man wrecking machine, and then you need a couple of these other guys to step up. And I do agree.

Sean McVay could probably scheme around some offensive line issues, but I don't know. He's had some issues, I think, like routinely at certain chunks of the season where things aren't going his way, and then he has to adjust, and then he fixes it kind of. But can he start off and just like have everything fixed? Good to go. Also the whole Cam Akers thing, I think it's clearly ridiculous.

Like, you know, basically went from bench week one was going to be cut slash traded, couldn't find a trade partner and then became their feature back. And now he's there. Good to go feature back off an Achilles three years ago. I guess like, you know, I mean, it's I think that there's significantly more downside, like Newnan said. But that being said, I just don't think we've ever seen something like this, where there's literally three guys.

Can these three guys carry them to wins early in the season? So I'm excited to see it, honestly. I think it will be very, very interesting. I think Clark did a good job at kind of putting a measured take on it. His thoughts are there probably are some opportunities early in the season. He's not bullish on them long-term per se. It definitely is.

You know, again, you can make the case to, Hey, maybe they get a little bit more seasoning. Maybe they get better and they can find their groove there. Some of these really young. Unproven guys started to hit the ground running.

It's very interesting. Mike Clay of ESPN does projections and then ranks, basically does a unit grade offense, defense, and 4.0 scale. So 4.0 being the absolute tops all the way down to 0.1. The Rams interior defensive line, which involves probably maybe one of the best players of all time. 2.8 defensive line. And again, above average unit. Every other unit, all of them. Edge rusher, outside linebackers, corners, safeties.

0.1. It's just a bad football team. I agree, Clark. NFC is just the prize of a good quarterback play if it's a healthy matthew stafford and a healthy cooper cup who's probably the best quarterback at least from like a pure pocket passer in the division like i know that we you know like dac can take a step forward or you know not turn the ball over i think we like what we've seen from jalen hurts there are cases there but like stafford yeah we forgot what we saw because we didn't really see him towards the tail end

of last season. There's a case for that, but man, the defense is going to be a disaster. So maybe in fantasy, you can make a case for like, Hey, if Cooper Cupp stays healthy, how does he not catch 150 footballs? And with this, like the competition at wide receiver is garbage. They're going to have to be really, really good in all that and more. Like same thing, Ernest Jones at linebacker. I mean, I don't know how Ernest Jones doesn't get a lot of running backs

running right into him in the second half of games this season because they're going to be playing from behind and teams are going to be running on them quite a bit, I would think. So again, Aaron Donald is a difference maker, but I don't think he could be this much of a difference maker. I would still play all thunders on this team. I think that there's a, you know, give me the case that they're going to upend Seattle in week one.

I think there's a really good chance of that week five matchup or week six matchup against the Cardinals is both of those squads looking for their first win. You can get the Rams at 12 to one to be the last winless team in football. I think that's off market when compared to the Cardinals who are four and one, who again, are also terrible. And we're about to talk about. So you just think that there's the downside here is, is pretty rough. I need very, very narrow, limited upside.

I think is best utilized early in the season as I think Clark laid out. So Clark, it sounds like you're staying away from bets on the Rams. Just kind of looking at opportunities early while they're healthy. Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, I think like people use the idea that Sean McVay considered retirement last year

as like, oh man, this Rams team is done. But like, did he retire? Because he's bad. Like, I just don't see Sean McVay being like, yeah, I'm going to come back, but I'm just not going to take it that seriously. Like he, the, the competitiveness in his veins is going to prevent him from going into the season with a defeatist mindset.

So, you know, I don't think that's evidence of the Rams tanking. I think that's evidence of the Rams giving it everything they got, at least early in the season. We'll see what happens if they're one on four, you know, what happens at that point. But for now I'm, I'm giving McVay the credit for coming back and coaching and wanting to be better. We're going to see some pretty fun scripts here. It's going to be like the Rams trying to run the,

run the ball should load early in games and like trying to control the clock. And then they're going to let up, go down like two touchdowns. And then Matthew Stafford's going to have to throw the ball like 40 times. It's going to be like, kind of like the buck second half of last season where they're like, Oh, we can't just throw it every play. We'll try and run. And they did that for like a quarter went down and then just

threw the ball like 50 times there's enough i agree like i don't think that there's any anything to carry over from the offseason in terms of mcveigh um you're retiring as far as his motivation like these guys all are too competitive and have too much pride i think it was just a volatile offseason there's enough enough Stafford rumors and, you know, Stafford comes out and is like, Hey, I take it as a compliment. The teams are interested. And it's like, at least there were, there's enough there that late in the season here, especially in LA where there is a very right down the road,

a very exciting young prospect who they would love to fill a Rams jersey in that brand new stadium when the team is kind of in full rebuild mode. I don't know. I think that that gets interesting. Again, we know that players don't tank organizations can try to a little bit. So I don't think we're going to see McVay himself or,

you know, again, maybe the Amazon check just wasn't big enough. Maybe it is next off season. And then, you know, we don't, we're discussing a different situation here with,

with the, the Rams and the off season. But yeah, I think that they're bad. And, uh, I think Clark did a good job at giving a measure take there. We'll now turn to it. No, no, no. Before you guys done, I want, I want a little side bet action between you two week one Rams, uh, Seahawks.

I think you guys disagreed on it. Um, I mean, are you guys willing to take this action or no? Yeah. I like the Seahawks at five and a half, six, I get six being, you know, five and a half is fine. Yeah, let's let's go let's go there we go i just needed to interject that because i was like i know that they have differing takes here so i wanted to see it play out live on air after our uh week two episode i guess during week two yeah it'll be it'll be fine yeah we'll tee that one up we'll go uh well we'll skip it we just wait we just i

think dissected the week one matchup nothing's going to change between now and then, I think. Hopefully. Maybe the Witherspoon holdout lasts, and then it's a whole different conversation because we need him in the mix for sure. All right, the Cardinals are widely available, 200-1 to win the Super Bowl, 100-1 to win the NFC, which I think is way too short,

27-1 to win the division, and 4. think is way too short. 27 to one to win the division. And four and a half win total is mostly flat across the board if you happen to have an appetite for that. Transition year for sure. Interesting to see in Arizona this year is transition year not just with, you know, sometimes you get a new coach, you have a new general manager here as well. You also have the star quarterback out due to a late season acl injury there are definitely

questions valid questions around does kyler murray take a snap this season does it make sense for him to take a snap this season does it make sense for the cardinals to allow him to uh connor let you get started with this one this is tough because i've been like super down on the cardinals all offseason just in the fact that i thought there's no shot Kyler Murray's going to play for a while. And I'm kind of starting to doubt my initial like thoughts on that. And I think that there's a pretty good chance at this point that he plays like way earlier than we thought. And I don't, I don't think there's a chance to play the week one, but like week three,

week four, maybe. And so we're looking at this team here. I kind of think it's similar to the Rams in a sense where it's going to be Kyler Murray and basically nothing else. I mean, last year, Cardinals defense, 31st points per game, 31st points per drive, 32nd success rate allowed. They drafted BJ Ojalary and then they added Garrett Williams, who's coming off a torn ACL. I mean, some of their corners are rough, like their defense projects to be one of the worst still. Their offense, they traded DeAndre Hopkins. I mean, I think the Marqu Deandre Hopkins. I mean, I think the Marquise Brown is fine.

I mean, I'm kind of a known Hollywood hater, so I, you know, I can't stand for him too much, but like if Kyler's playing like a win total at four and a half with plus money on the over, like I'm not saying I'm betting it, but I think that if we want to look at how,

like the best bet of how to bet this team, I think that's probably it. If Kyler's going to play three quarters of the season. So I also don't think that if we want to look at how like the best bet of how to bet this team i think that's probably it if kyler's gonna play three quarters of the season so i also don't think that the whole like will kyler not play the whole season like i think if he has a choice then he's gonna be playing obviously but there's it would have to take the ownership being like hey we're trading you or like hey we don't want to deal with this anymore like hey we're basically we're basically, we're taking just get healthy for your next team. And we'll make sure you go somewhere you like, like it would have to be something like that, that thing just generally doesn't really happen in the NFL. So like I, for me, I kind of think the most likely outcome is that he plays three quarters of the season and then they kind of still sink and they trade him.

But I think that at this point, like this Cardinals team could win more than four games pretty easily. So I know I've been down on them. I know that the talent sucks, but I think that at this point, like this Cardinals team could win more than four games pretty easily. So I know I've been down on them. I know that the talent sucks, but like, is it that much worse than a team like the Rams? And I mean, they have a great quarterback or an interesting quarterback in Kyler Murray. So I don't know, call me crazy. I want to hear the contract contrary here, but there's no shot of betting on before now. Clark, where are you at here? I agree. I'm not betting the under, um, but I think three quarters of the under four now clark where you at here i agree

i'm not betting the under um but i think three quarters of the season is a bit optimistic for kyle murray and then on top of that like yeah okay if kyle murray enters week five even week six week seven uh fully healthy and his hundred percent self like sure over over is probably a good bet but i was reading some injury analysis from one of the you you know, one of the doctors that posts about this kind of stuff and saying that Kyler Murray's recovery timeline might be shorter by virtue of his athletic profile, but that because of the way that he plays, this injury will impact his play early on as he gets back up to game speed. So I just don't see a, I don't see an expectation

that Murray's first game back will be 100% Murray. I think this is going to be an ugly, slow kind of recovery from injury because he requires getting outside the pocket to make plays. I mean, he's not a good quarterback within structure. He's never been. He doesn't have Cliff Kingsbury anymore to where they're just spreading out the receivers and just saying, okay, throw it to the open guy within however many seconds,

like if he's going to actually have to run an offense, I just don't think that he's going to be as good as Kyler Murray is perceived to be. And if he's scrambling around with a, you know, recovering ACL tear, I don't know. I just don't see it. I think, I think so much has to go their way for them to be even, you know, a competitive team with, with, you know, a competitive team with, with, you know, obvious signs that they're rebuilding, you know, they have the Texans early draft pick, they have their own draft pick.

It just doesn't make sense. Like this whole, this whole framework doesn't make sense. Jonathan Gannon doesn't need to prove anything this year. Like they're giving him multiple years to figure this stuff out. And so I don't know who the offense coordinator is. I don't know who the defense coordinator is. I mean, I know, yes, I know the names. I just don't know anything about them. I don't have any experience of them coaching NFL teams. So I think there's just so much uncertainty here. We don't even, I mean, maybe Colt McCoy is starting week one. We don't

even know for sure. Ultimately, this is like a complete hands-off for me. I'm not even betting week one. Like I just, I need to see this team on the field to have any idea who they are like i have less grasp on this team than any team in the nfl um so and i don't like betting an answer to you like that yeah i think you're crazy connor i'll be honest like i i'm and i i kind of hate this analysis it's not really fair i don't know him as a person but i feel like i've seen enough kyle murray he's a frontrunner. He is bad body language when things aren't going well. He's grumpy. He's not a quarterback that goes under the sideline and looks like he's

trying to coach up guys that didn't do what he wanted them to do. He pouts. We've seen enough of this at this point to see it's just not a guy that I believe is going to love playing behind a crap situation on both sides of the ball. Short fields, I think it is going to love playing behind a crap situation on both sides of the ball, like short fields. I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be a disaster. So yeah,

I mean, I don't love chasing the four and a half again, like, and we've talked about it on the coaching episodes. Like Jonathan Gagnon was not a guy that was like, oh, this guy is just this really creative mind defensively, really kind of stale, vanilla type of situations going on in Philly. When Howie Roseman stuffed him full of playmakers, they were a great defense all of a sudden. It wasn't schematic stuff that Gany was doing, and now he's going to go do that and make lemonade out of lemons. I just don't see that happening.

He's got a 29-year-old defensive coordinator that was his friend in Philadelphia. I wish him really good luck in his career. I hope he makes lots of money and coaches in this league for 30 years. I think he's going to have his hands full in the first year. They've been bleeding talent on the defensive side of the ball for years and have done very little to replace it. They've drafted multiple off-ball linebackers early in the first round.

Neither are very good. They try to use them a little bit to rush the passer. They're not very good at that. We just gave more money to buda baker who's kind of the only thing going there it's it's really rough um you know chandler jones left jj watt retired ben neiman's gone zach allen's like they just everything that's kind of been that's held that kind of fort together for the last few years isn't really there j James Conner, okay, we're going to give him the ball 20 times a game until he breaks because that happens every single year. Hollywood Brown's your best player until he breaks. That happens every single year. So we're just going

to get a bunch of Clayton Toon and Colt McCoy snaps. That's not very good either to start the year. So I don't love four and a half because it's such a low threshold, but again, they won four games last year. Teams win four games quite often or win even less than a half because it's such a low threshold. But again, they won four games last year. Teams win four games quite often or win, you know, even less than that. So it's not like it's outside the realm of possibilities. It's a, it's a rough roster. Let's see here. You know, again, if we get Kyler back, Cardinals spend most of December playing either out

in the cold on the road at Pittsburgh, at Chicago, at Philly, or hosting far superior teams, San Francisco and Seattle in the division. So like, it's not even good in the sense that like Kyler's going to be back towards the tail end of the season. It's kind of when their toughest part of the schedule comes. So yeah, again, like Clark said, because of the what they did in the off season, setting themselves up draft wise, man,

they are set to really move off of the kyler contract push resets had some talents it was a great trade fleecing houston and they're gonna have you know real good shot of having two top five picks this year depending on when you think of houston so uh you can get i think under one and a half wins in the division is a plus money plus 110 and caesars basically think they're gonna either beat seattle or sanars. Basically, I think they're going to either beat Seattle or San Francisco. I don't think they're going to do that. In this instance, they have to sweep the ramps. So I don't think that that's happening either.

Yeah. I mean, I don't mind that either, and I want to be clear that I'm not massively advocating for Cardinals. No, for sure. The number is just insanely low. I mean, you're looking at – I mean, the Bears are not going to be good. The Bears – I don't care if they're in Chicago or maybe one of the worst home field advantage in the league, or if they're at, you know, wherever Pittsburgh, they play the Rams twice that we already mentioned could be,

have disastrous downside to play the Texans. Like there's five or six games that are at least like could be close if Kyler Murray's playing. And I don't know. I mean, I get it. I think Jonathan Gannon is going to be a disaster, but I just i just i don't i think that there's a lot more uncertainty about them for sure being the worst team in the league at this point than there was like a couple weeks ago because like clark said that there's that there's like some doctor analysis and that's what i was reading was like oh there's no ways in return week eight week nine and you're probably right in terms of like he won't be kyler murray but like i, everything has been increasingly positive the last like two weeks out of like camp of like Kyler Murray looks great. You know, he's well ahead of recovery. He's trying to play week one,

which again, not true, but you set your sights on week one, probably in week four, not week eight or nine, like we thought originally. So I don't know. It could make a difference anyways, far too bullish on the Cardinals in general. That does change things. And I think the big takeaway with the Cardinals is like so many people at this point in the year are looking at other teams' schedules being like, oh, well, that's a win. Like they're like adding up, like how can this team go over under their win total? And they're like, you know, the Bears, like, oh, well, Cardinals is a win, you know? And it's like, that is just not how the NFL works. Like there's no, there's no easy wins. There's no gimme wins.

The Cardinals are going to win, you know, probably around four games this year. Like even if Kyle Murray doesn't return to late and like, that's four teams that you thought you were tracking up a win that don't get that win. So it's just kind of a cautionary tale. Like you still have to play the football. You still have to win the game.

There's not, you do a lot of it. So, but I agree. I agree with you. Like, you know, it's, it's definitely, especially late in the season, you never know. We don't know what the dynamic of the Bears looks like. That could be PJ Walker at quarterback or whatnot for Chicago, even though that's an outside game for Arizona.

Who knows? I think it's a fair criticism of some of that analysis. There's not an influx of talent happening this season in Arizona, and I think they severely lack lack and that's going to, it's going to bear itself out. So I'm excited to fade them next year, honestly. Well,

maybe even this year, like I'm pretty comfortable laying the juice with like good teams against them, I think, but I don't know. I guess we'll, we'll see. Like Clark said,

I just said, we have no idea what to expect. I think all we need to know is that a team with a six and a half win total juiced under starting a fifth round pick quarterback who has one game under his belt is a six point favorite against this team in week one. That's all you need to know about the market's perception of the Cardinals. What's the Cardinals team total in that game? Is it over 17?

I don't know. I mean, I thought that might be an under for me, honestly, that might be like 40 or something. Is the team total out? I'm sure it's it's out the week one like has basically everything out on draft kings any real books have it shots fired yeah the heat i mean i don't blame you you know up the limits or get out of the ring

dk you know not even up the limits like just allow us to bet on stuff like yeah just have something like let us know what the limit is like yeah make it something but yeah it's i it's a good point i mean connor's very bullish on uh sam howell and uh you know i'm not i'm not far behind but uh yeah a couple bad football teams in this uh in this division 16 and a half right now we'll find a 17 at some point. I'll, I'll take that. Yeah. I need to know is that, uh, I don't even know if it matters to say, I need to know if that's

Cole McCoy or, uh, Clayton. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, that wraps up the, uh, NFC West again, uh, YouTube four for four bets, subscribe, lots of other content. You can watch the other shows that we've done. You can also find that in podcast form,

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Play through that $5. Really easy pick-em site game. You play. You can get golf matchups in there too. You can bet baseball. Connor might give you some strikeout props. Who knows what he's doing these days over at Vivid. Again, you can get all thatups in there too. You can bet baseball. Connor might give you some strikeout props. Who knows what he's doing these days over at Vivid. Again, you can get all that info in the show notes.

So I appreciate it. We're going to be back next week with a different show. We're going to pause our division previews. We'll jump into the AFC East the following week, and we'll be back in the same spot here on Thursday next week. So for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everyone. Yeah!