Move The Line - Expert NFL Championship Round Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

Get ready for Championship Round with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SlopRules Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move line prop drop show presented by draft king sportsbook i'm ryan noonan joined by my friends connor allen john hyslop we are back again conference championship week final four to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on nfl football and that is through player props uh two more shows to go. This one, and we will be back by week next week, I believe, and we haven't talked about it. We'll probably just come back on the Friday before the Super Bowl to talk all

the props for the Super Bowl, exotics, all the crazy menus that we get for Super Bowl. If you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look is for the week. Subscribe to the channel. 444Bets on the YouTube channel. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. From Vegas, joining us this week, Conor Allen. What's up, buddy? What's good? Yeah, coming to you live from the Paris. I just had a great brunch this morning.

Big Friday brunch guy. It should be a good day of gambling. Lost my ass last night, but that only means one thing. Can only go up from here, right, Slav? grunge guy. And, you know, it should be a good day of gambling. Lost my ass last night. But that only means one thing can only go up from here. Right. Yeah. I mean, you got to get down before you can get up. That's just how it works.

So you already took care of half your halfway home, you know? Yeah, you do. That's what the people are saying is that we're due. So, you know, craps.

I mean, it was just like seven. Every other role is like, you load up the load of the board seven first roll just bad luck right out the rip uh so we had an early retirement uh but it's all right ready to get back at it nice nice that's i don't even know how to play craps dude it's never too late to learn awesome game awesome game sounds like you had a lot of fun yesterday. Normally not. It's normally not that bad. But I would say it's the best table game, like, vibes-wise overall.

I think Blackjack's fun, but I don't know. Craps, like, when everyone's winning, it's just electric. Like, everyone's going wild. You know, you'll never bond with a stranger like you would over craps. It's electric. Yeah, I'm not – just table games, period. Maybe craps might be different. I don't like to sit there and think the whole time. Are you a slots guy?

No. Sports bet. I'll just go to the book, find a bet, and I'll just hang out there for literally hours just finding more bets. But, like, it's the whole, like, I got to keep thinking. That's why I don't even like live betting because it it's just i don't i'm done thinking i already thought and i put my money on what i thought you know what i mean but like yeah having to make decisions like i'm drinking now uh it's just it turns into a problem that's honestly fair i need some bets

for tonight and tomorrow because i leave uh sunday I'm not going to be able to cash any NFL tickets. I might have to mail any in. I'm still going to bet them, but I'm not going to. I need some plays for tonight and tomorrow. Is there anything to bet on, like NBA? Luke Kennard is going to go off tonight. I hope everybody

that puts that game brings their umbrellas because it's going to be a show. All right. 30 plus? I'd say let's go That game brings their umbrellas. It's going to be a show. All right. So there is that. 30 plus? 30 plus? 40 plus? I'd say let's go 20-burger.

I mean, his standard line is like 12 plus 105. So 20-burger is probably good for him. Then maybe grab a Desmond Bain assist prop before they announce Ja out because that's going to happen. Like, he ain't playing. Okay. Um, we got,

that's two. I love that Islanders puck line, uh, Dallas stars. Money. I mean, this is great. This is,

I'm done all of these. It's what we need. I mean, Tommy's also mentioning, I don't know if you, you know, if you didn't grab pre-tournament Ludwig, um,

the farmers, I don't know if you, you know, I don't believe this. Ludwig's holding on and taking this down this week. So you probably still get like plus 170, maybe 2-1 on Ludwig to win if you didn't get the pre-flop 11s on betspersicolf.com, which you should be tailing and following.

So coming off of a 75-1 winner last week as well. We're trying to go back-to-back on the winners uh ludwig in the league so yeah you see a little struggle the wind was awful yesterday everyone was struggling so not worried about it it's going to come back he's built for this course so uh yeah it's early it's the weekends golf wise so uh connor the people also want to get a follow-up on last week's death draft that you did not update us on. I did see the board. I do think you got a couple of good ones in there. So if you want to give us a little bit of a rundown on how that went for you.

Yeah, I kind of did like the youngs and old approach. So I did a mix of some high-risk, very volatile players, if they were to fall ill, I would probably just win automatically. All it takes is one. And I also got some, like, some layups, you know. So, I went Luigi Mangione first round, you know, the UnitedHealthcare CEO killer. I don't know. I just think there's a chance that he gets chopped in prison. And then Clint Eastwood second round, round 95 but not doing so hot um i think i actually got

so we have a rule where you can get vetoed on someone if half the people don't know who it is so someone can request a veto and you have like a raise of hands if they know who it is my third round pick was lee corso and i got vetoed or they tried to veto me on this. I was like... They tried to? Why? What was the reason? Because people didn't know who he was? Yeah, people didn't know who he was.

I was flabbergasted. I was like, Lee Corso is, like, more famous than, like, 75% of the people that have already been picked. Like, this guy's on television every week. So it was not the male audiences that requested that, the ones that are not watching ESPN. So it was honestly fair, audiences that requested that the ones that are not watching ESPN. So it was honestly fair, I think. Um, but yeah, so I had him, uh, Donald Trump, Conor McGregor.

I took Tua, Nancy Pelosi, uh, Joe Exotic is in prison and not doing very well. Um, you know, Tiger King and then Warren Buffett. And then last round pick my favorite pick every year, Lizzo. So, you know, probably not going to die, but not a good person and wildly overweight. So don't like her. That's not bad. I kind of like Joe Exotic. Yeah.

Look, I'm not making a political statement here. You got Trump in the fourth round? Fifth round, I think. No, no, fourth round, fourth round. They already tried to kill him once. I mean – They already tried to kill him twice. Yeah, twice. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

One time was like way too – like what are you doing? Like how? So, I mean, that feels like a good – that feels like a good pick, man. Yeah, it's solid. In the fourth round. I was shocked he was still on the board to be honest um yeah i actually had i had shot at fsm for joe exotic um they were like you know i farmed out some of my um you know picks here i only the only one that was from fsm specifically was joe exotic because i'm like the

10th round or eighth round um he's like just apparently really doing poorly in prison so i mean not sense i mean it makes sense he has a hugey. I don't know if you guys watch the show. Does anybody really do well in prison though? You know what I mean? Do you see the Silk Road guy that got let go? He looked like he was fresh out of he looked fine. He just got out.

You turn around quick whenever there's no bars around you. You know what I mean? Looking good. You've got to mean? It was looking good. Yeah. You got to post one on the board too. You know why they let that guy out?

No. I'm wondering. I don't know. I'm trying to feel like why. I don't understand what the reasoning was. Yeah. You know what I'm saying? You show up, dude.

You're now the president. Here we are. We're here. Let's get the Silk Road guy out. It's like, all right god damn that's pretty high on the list you know like so like first day i mean i mean it's cool i'm not saying he shouldn't have got out i think everyone knows what i'm saying it's just like like what was the what was the rush there i don't know i have plenty of friends who were buying shit off silk road with Bitcoin back in the day. You can get Percocets off of there, dude.

I mean, I heard. Hypothetically from a friend of a friend. It was just right to your house, dude. Actually, all safe. No fentanyl on that. Still living right now. We survived that.

That's cool. i just wondered that did they come in they signed something like releasing jfk files but like are they out like can we read them yet does anyone know i don't know to be honest i didn't read them did you read them man i didn't no i believe be honest. I didn't read them. Did you read them, Nenon? I didn't. No, I believe. I don't think you can read them. I think he just signed saying that they will be released. But, like, I don't know when they're getting released. I thought maybe, like, yesterday. I don't know.

I don't know why I thought that. But in my head, that made the most sense. I don't know. I mean, what are we going to find in that? Like, I mean. I don't know. I think CIA. I would.

Like, Kalishi, they should sign or put up a market. What are we going to find in that? I don't know. I think CIA. Kalishi, they should put up a market. Was it Mob or CIA? I'd bet CIA. I think CIA. That's the kind of shit I want to bet on now. This is a damper. For what?

What are we waiting for? That happened in the 60s. Like why are we waiting 45 days? I don't understand those types. That just seems very arbitrary. Yeah, why? Well, we waited 60 years. We can probably wait another 45 days to be honest. I mean I understand that logic, but I just don't understand.

Now we wait 45 days. Like, wait, what are we doing? I mean, come on. Like, this generation, too, is way too into gratification to be 45 days. That's like six years to invite these kids, dude. I thought I saw some threads already, like, explaining what was in it, but they're all fake, I'm sure. Like, I thought someone was going to read it before me.

That's what I'm trying to say. It's like, I don't know what, like, I want, like, like i want like the real link you know what i mean because like you know it's gonna get wild oh yeah like once like because there's gonna be a lot of other links it's already wild what are we talking about all right yeah oh my god 10 10 minutes in sorry the death the death draft got us off the rails again here it happens and then someone suggested an fsm mongo me michael steven michael i thought that was a fantastic he was like a second round pick he was like oh yeah steve boynton picked him uh at the one two turn that's what it was yeah yeah that's for sure

good luck hopefully you know you get at least one over the finish line get some points because i imagine the majority of the people don't score right like all right yeah i mean two people on the list of like seven a hundred or whatever 150 people passed away last time so yeah that's still pretty good i mean that's not bad i mean for those seven people not great but like that's still pretty good like you called seven people guys unless like you're gonna kill need it all. Unless you're going to kill them. Do you know that there's websites dedicated to this stuff, by the way? There's like deathdraft.com. Like fantasy pros, but fight for death.

Yeah, exactly. It's like an expert consensus ranking based on – I'm not even kidding. There's like a voting based on this, and they poll popular votes on who they think is going to most likely die, and they rank it by that. So it is a fantasy prose. It's an aggregation. That's crazy. Biden was a mid-second rounder. I think it was a little bit of a steal there

to be honest. Yeah. Wow. You're going to leave us and start touting on deathlist.com. Yeah. You get your death list badges and how much better you are than the consensus. You put in your bio. That's the off-season project for you. All right. 12 minutes. Let's talk some football. We made it. You can tell that

we only have uh a couple of games here it's a little bit tighter but again i want to remind the uh handful of you that watch and listen but don't subscribe uh fix that sub to the channel sub to the podcast wherever you take that in uh again for four bets on the youtube side move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. We appreciate that very much. Like I said, we're probably off next week. We'll be back for Super Bowl week. Unpack, obviously, that extensive menu. If you want to jump in, get a sense of what we have to offer over at 444.

Head over to the plans page, 444.com slash plans. No discount code. It's already massively discounted for you. Feel free to check that out. All right, Connor. We could come back and talk JFK or MLK next week if you want Tommy G yeah oh that would be so good I would love

a Tommy G episode I mean I don't know if our sponsors and parent company would love that but I think we're going to talk I'd kind of love it too it would be such a disaster but it would be probably really interesting you know interesting I'd kind of love it too It would be such a disaster But it would be probably really interesting Interesting I'd like watch it back

I'm not watching this for me I'm just watching this I'd just be over here Trying to make sure I didn't say anything stupid Trying not to get cancelled People don't want They like the grab ass conversations, but they don't necessarily want all of our opinions.

This is obviously a very delicate time for anyone to say anything that sounds like an opinion or leans one way or another. We try to do our best to stay out of any leans and talk props. With that in mind, Connor, we'll stay there.

Floor is yours. First play, conference championships. What you got? Yeah, let's rock. I'm going to go with Josh Allen over 9.5 carries. Best odds right now, plus 102 FanDuel, even money Caesars. Everywhere else is like minus 105-ish. I'd play it up to minus 115.

Allen, double-dig digit carries in five, seven career games against Kansas city 12 earlier this year, even a nine point win eight and 10 carries in two playoff games. They dominated so far. It's pretty interesting. Cause I think as his career has evolved and it's like, they've been changing the plays a little bit. He's been super involved in like, you know, tush, push,

super short yardage carry stuff. And obviously around the goal line too, they do like a designed run basically guaranteed every single time they're down there. So I think in that scenario, fourth downs have been more aggressive too. So like all of these like short yardage scenarios, he's going to get carries in,

which I think boosts his possible total here. Obviously kneel downs count. And so I think that there's a lot of different upside here for him to get like 15 plus carries in this. Allen, this so far this season, second half of the year really turned up as rushing volume in huge games as well. 12 carries against Kansas city,

11 against Detroit and a high scoring win 10 against the Rams and high scoring loss. I mean, again, this is just like, I think double digit carries here is like a, a little bit too low here at nine and a half plus money. I thought it was some pretty good value.

Yeah. I like it a lot. I looked into it myself. I'm with you there. Sloppity thoughts on Allen. I looked into it myself. I'm with you there. Sloppy, thoughts on Allen? I don't mind it. That's all I got. I don't mind it.

That's enough. That's enough. It's good enough for me. It's also plus 102, slop. So, I mean. I mean, it's plus money. So, that had me there. And it was not an under.

So, I was in. Yeah, I was looking back at previous – you look at games against Kansas City, you look at playoff games, there's just a handful of spots where he's just like 10 carries, 12 carries. He's just kind of constantly in that range. So it kind of works for me. I like the price too. Good call out there.

Slop, what you got? I'm going to go Jadenden daniels um three plus touchdown passes plus 490 at fanduel i don't know you know what i mean like that could happen just the thing can't run on the eagles can't do it all right nobody can no one's been able to can't crack that nut but you can throw touchdowns on them jane daniels just happened to throw five last time he played him that's not bad that's two more than what we need so we would have been bowing out way before he even got to the fifth one um they i think the redskins somehow just have the it factor i think they're going to be able to kind of move the ball a little bit on them i mean they what they just did to the lions not that the lions were so great

defensively but go back last Thanksgiving. Daniel's been throwing two-plus every single game, except for the last week of the season against Dallas, which doesn't even count because he didn't even play the whole game. You're seeing twos, threes everywhere. Kid looked all right last week. Should be a desperation time. I bet you they trail,

so you're going to see some throwing. Three-plus at almost plus 500 is not that crazy. Connor, it could happen. The rationale there was, I don't know, I like it or whatever. What did you say that quote was? I don't know.

It could happen. Yeah, I don't know it could happen. Put that on a shirt. I love it. I think we keep talking about this. It's something we'll talk about after the play a little bit more, but the first game that they played Jane Daniels is like super injured. And I think kind of like skewed a lot of his stats is eight out with like 3.9. I just was like,

you know, really tough. Then the second game, I mean, he was in comeback mode, but like, I don't expect anything different here. I mean,

he should just have to crush. So I don't know. There's some, I think different scenarios where this game can go differently and the props are not necessarily priced that way. So I think the Daniels overs are pretty interesting. I didn't know how to play at three plus. Where are you seeing 400 something?

Bandle. So three plus. I'm on the odd stand. Kind of a trash price. Yeah, over three and a half is plus 490. ESPN has 450. DraftKings 419. Cir half is plus 490 espn has 450 draft kings 419 circa's at 490 but then some of these other books are not like bet online plus 334 340 at caesar's caesar's nose dude yeah caesar is not they're not great and They're like, no way, no way.

Yeah, I mean, that's good. I guess that's what you just said made a lot of sense, though, like where the game could go this route and the props aren't priced that way. That's all I'm really looking for is what are my range of outcomes and which props can take advantage of ones that I think are better than not. Do you know what I mean? And the commanders, I don't know. They can score.

They somehow can score apparently because they've just been doing it all this time now, and the idea that they can't is kind of crazy. I mean, it just is. I mean, what else do they have to do before we start saying, hey, I'll bet into a plus 500 on this guy to throw three touchdowns? Not a record, by the way. Yeah. It's not that much.

Yeah, I think the team total is like 20 and a half. It just seems a little bit light. You know? Dude, the same thing at the national title game, not to bring it up, everyone called me an idiot. Everybody. I was like, Notre Dame scored 20 points. I mean, I don't know that they're going to cover. I don't know that they're going to look great or whatever,

but they scored 20. They had 23. Just saying. Weird shit happens, guys. Three more than you needed. Exactly. We could have gave three points back. Still would have won.

But you know what? We don't need all these points. Just give me the 20. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think those are nice opportunities where they're not going to be uh you know you price into some of the ceiling outcomes you're going to find some

some uh angles here for sure so yes all right i like it uh next one first one for me uh come off and just anything you're strong december was good. We were six and one last week. We're a, you know, almost backdoored that, uh, justice Hill, three receptions, like a final drive, did zero all game back to back. And then you're like,

Oh, we're still alive. All of a sudden six and one we'll take, I never felt so alive. I know it was so good right now. Cause we were dead in the water. Oh yeah. We were hot for a minute. I thought he was in there too. I were dead in the water. Oh, yeah. We were hot for a minute.

I thought he was getting there. So I'm dead serious. I really thought he was going to catch a third one on that drive. This is how this happens. This is how unders lose right here. Nonsense. Yeah. I was feeling – I mean, it was perfect on the weekend.

I just hit a golf outright. I'm needing a backdoor this last hit. Like I was feeling myself for a minute. So it definitely felt like, oh, no, we're getting home here. this is going to be one of those weeks no we didn't but we're gonna go perfect this week connor and i are on the same play uh connor and i are in together uh that's gone very well monotone combo deals those things have been pretty good this season and when we get connor in and over feel good about it too awesome eckler over on receiving yards again, going back to the well on a play that worked last week.

It's moved a little bit on us, but 25.5. DK, FanDuel, fine with both of them. At least for me last week, part of it was the game script that we thought might happen, but because it didn't even really happen, it was really cool to see Eckler involved early. He was targeted twice in that first 15 scripted stuff, so he was part of the plan. Caught four balls for 41 yards. Again, we only needed 24 last week. We borrowed an extra 17 yards. Did not play in the week 16 game because he was still

in concussion protocol, but caught eight of nine targets for 89 yards the first time they met. Almost 40% target share in that game. They got Nicole B. Dean out for Philly as well. Oren Burks, 95% of the snaps last week for Burks, higher than I was expecting him to be. If he's going to find a way to target him in the passing game, he's been the closest defender on 18 targets this season. He's allowed 17 receptions on those 18 targets, 119 yards.

We don't need a lot for Eckler. So you can get, you know, I think plus 40 in the alts and stuff like that. Very much in play again, just like they were last week. Connor, anything to add? No, I love it. It's something that we talked about, I think, one of the first plays of the week. You know, even in the game where Jadenden daniels a dot was higher um like in the second game uh you know eckler didn't play but i think the running backs were like brian

robinson mcnichols and chris rodriguez maybe uh combined for like eight catches or something or seven catches so like with eckler soaking up more of that role like i mean he's gonna have five four or five catches um and He's honestly looked way better. The last couple of weeks, he's looked pretty good. It's kind of the Austin Eckler of old. We've seen him just, I don't know, seen some bad games, seen some good games. I think he's kind of training up at this point. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Eckler, especially if they fall behind.

I agree with Patrick. I thought it was going to come out. I grabbed this number at open, and then we were talking about it the other day, and it was like, oh, no, it's 23.5. People were betting the under early. I was really surprised to see that. So, yeah, still out there, 25. Again, I think 26 and a half is out there, too.

Playable, obviously. Slop, any Eckler thoughts? I was thinking about going receptions, so I'm in. Yeah, three and a half, I think, is plus money. Yeah. You get plus 135 for three. That was actually my next bet, but plus 135 for four receptions at Valley Bet. Yeah, that's nice.

That's not even a real book, I guess, because they don't care. Where do you use Valley Bet? In Vegas? No, you can use it in Massachusetts. It's basically Bet Rivers, Sugar Howell. like we're in vegas um now you can use it in massachusetts it's uh basically bet rivers sugar how okay um fanduel has 122 draft kings has 131 and espn has 125 so they're all in that range but i mean he's catching four balls like caesars 130 for three and a half uh over three and a half he didn't play one game uh so we don't really know what happened there,

but the running backs were involved. And then the first game caught eight balls. I don't know that he catches eight, but I mean – He's already done it, though. Yeah, he's done it, so you can't just be like, yeah, he didn't do it. Yeah, I know. I don't think – like every time I'm on there, I'm like this doesn't feel like a real book.

It's a can be book, yeah. So basically your sugar house, bet rivers. Any place that you place one bet and beat the closing line and then the next time you log in, like you can bet $2, that's a can be book. That's how you know you're at a can be book. Exactly. Yep. So that's just for the for the kids out there if you want to know hey this is a candy book you'll know you'll know quick not marcus can be

no different can be it can't be with a k yeah i love you can get this too i love when they do this uh on caesars you can get uh over three and5 for plus 130, or you can get 4 plus for plus 117. Yeah. Sometimes it's even worse on Caesars. It'll be like plus 105 for over 3.5, and then 4 plus is minus 178. You're like, wait, what's happening? Why would it be that far off? Yeah.

UMass, do you remember Lou Rowe, Patrickrick oh yeah yeah lou roe and can be that was a fun team cal having to get back in the banner i would have kept the banner like now you can't have this banner yeah but we got some uh some good education going on here in the chat too jason coogan never knew what PPH meant, paper head, just what local bookies use basically. And they have to pay per head that is on their book each week that played each book. So that's where it essentially came from. So they can use the website.

Otherwise you don't call them. Nobody wants to call them. Yeah, exactly. You're not doing that. We have a phone question here mid-plays. Caleb Danis, what do you think a more niche jersey is? John Kitna Cowboys or Brian Westbrook Niners?

Oh. Nunez, any thoughts? I love this game. I love the thought of this game. I love this for – it's easier for Slop and I because we're old. So, you know, you can think of more – Yeah, this is tougher for me, yeah. Random players that played on teams that you would never expect,

like, you know, a Jerry Rice Seahawks jersey or, you know, Randy Moss Titans jersey. Those would be – Didn't Dez Bryant play on, like, the Ravens or something like that for, like, a year? He did. It was, like, crazy. Yeah, like, that would be a good one.

Yeah, cut. Not surprising. Have you seen des on twitter dude guys just like popping off about nothing yeah you know a fun fact like i went to follow him and he follows me and i was like why would des bryant follow me you know what i mean i was like i i tell people i'm telling you right now i'm like that was like one like a great moment in my life. Yeah. That was when John Cena, I saw he was following me. And then I saw that he follows like 2 million people. I was like, oh.

I was so fired up at first. I was like, that's really him. Same. I got him on the way up too. I think he just started following people. So it was like his following count wasn't out of control yet. So I got that screenshot that's not like super out of control ratio wise yeah my son thought i was the coolest you know dude i was so like like oh my god dude like i

don't know what i did to get this dude to follow me but that's cool and then that immediately i'm like he's gonna be so disappointed you know what i mean and then um yeah then i saw he was following like so many people. I was like, oh, I think he has some sort of software, something going on. Yeah. There's no chance that's him. But Dez, that is definitely him. Like, yeah, he wants to get in the sports betting bad.

I was going to see if I can get him on the Thunderdome. We need to get him in here. Super Bowl. Oh, that'd be electric. Dez Bryant, Super Bowl. More than welcome to come in here. He rips, like, 25k bets uh i know i've seen him do that like that he's a little out of my price range i'm i'm still i'm done back to

doing 50 like half unit bets and then a bunch of 25 her parlay so not quite to the 25k range but um i'm working hard yeah working my way up i got the uh dellin batances follow and refuse to follow back as a red sox fan um he doesn't follow a ton of people so my son's like you got to follow them back i'm like i don't have to follow back um that's true you know who's a good follow who's in our like little crowd but i don't know makes it known uh justin steel pitcher for the cubs the lefty oh yeah yeah he's a he likes he likes getting down on the games let's get down okay legally legally mlb rules that like getting down for sure yeah yeah i'm upping up but you can just tell by some of the shitty po you're like dude you're yeah you're in yeah i like that guy all right

tim batanza struck him out in high school. Brutally mean. Yeah. Dude's not getting my follow back. I'm sorry. Yeah, he was a Yankees reliever for a long time. I know, but I'm saying in high school. Did you know?

You're a big boy. There's high school. Those high school pitchers, you didn't know. In the next thing you know, you see them in the middle. That's happened to me twice where I'm like, how the fuck did he? How? You weren't even good. and then you knew like knew like it was like when they were a freshman you're like yeah that kid's throwing in the major leagues one day yeah i mean he's like six five and you know two and change like you know he was probably firing heat in high school yeah no 100 miles an hour they said yeah so

he's definitely yeah so you knew all right yeah yeah we had rick ankyl at the other high school in our town port st lucie high school and like you knew he was like all right he's um he's he's definitely going pro yeah before the ips yeah yeah right it was right before that yeah yeah i had a bunch of people at my house we're gonna watch that games you starting like we had beers and shit and like i'm the one that knew i was new like in orlando and i knew Yeah. Yeah. Dude, I had a bunch of people at my house. We were going to watch that game. He was starting. Oof. We had beers and shit. And I'm the one that knew him. I was new in Orlando, and I knew him.

So I was like, cool, man. This is going to be awesome. I brought my buddy. And then everyone at the house really didn't know who it was. And then, yeah, when that thing happened, it was kind of like, all right. So we're out of here. Thanks for having us over. Well, he flipped his career.

To go back and reinvent yourself as an outfielder with that cannon. Well, he flipped his career. He got, you know, to go back and to like reinvent yourself as an outfielder with that cannon. Yeah, he's wild. Nah, he didn't. But Rick Ankle didn't party. Yeah. Patrick.

Oh, we got Stu, Monotone Stu on the Austin Eckler train as well. So again, three-way party. Let's go. And we had to get back

on that train. Yeah, I like that quite a bit. That's what we were talking about again. All right. Whatever. Slav, so that was your last one you had was Eckler? Yeah, the last one I had was Eckler.

I think he could catch four balls, possibly five. I mean, I don't think it's that crazy. Okay. Five receptions is like plus 300 somewhere. Hang on, I'll find it. Oh, it's a Valley bet. Hang on i'll find it oh yeah it's a bally bet hang on i'll get a real book 250 or 295 at draft kings he can catch five passes i feel exciting like bally bet is exciting like win better like yeah where they just like got

like these like stone cold boomers running the lines where they just don't move anything so like it's like oh yeah this is like what it opened out of draft kings like a week ago but like you know like yeah bliff you could actually get down on for a while but now i think they're chopping everyone with a pulse uh which again i i've really come around on this i used to be like very much like oh you limit everyone it sucks which it totally sucks but like they they have to make money right like they're profit businesses so like like that's how i understand it now it's just like annoying as fuck for us because we're just like yeah you know hands tied but like i get it because they got like these arbors you know just like blasting as

much as they can on off screen just like blasting stale lines but i guess their response is just to be better you know that's an option too that would work better yeah i'm on the fence like it's more like i get it but like give everybody a hundred bucks like i don't even bet a hundred right yeah it's like my unit that's my like that's my bet i think that's gonna happen bet you know what i mean like it's not even that much money like when you think about it like the idea of a hundred bucks dollar 28 you're like well what you don I mean? That's not even remotely close. Maybe somewhere close to the middle. Yes.

It's wild. Yeah. In fact, Caleb's question is a good question. I appreciate the shout to Caleb. I'm going to go kitten here because, you know. We never answered that. Yeah, we totally ignored it. Sorry, Caleb.

I'm going to go kitten. No, I mean, I started thinking about, like, you know, I named a bunch of other dudes. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Ewing's on the Magic or, you know, Olajuwon as a Raptor. You know, there's definitely some good ones that you wouldn't think of,

for sure, NFL side too. So, yeah. Thanks, Caleb. I'd go Kitna. He won me a fantasy – I don't think he won me a title it wasn't the playoffs but it was during the season down the stretch where he had to start he was with the bangles maybe the line somebody and man he he was going off yeah oh topical bob mcnabb on the skins it It's topical. So. Yeah.

Tomorrow, Charles. Shaq with the Celtics is a good one. Shaq with Celtics is a good one. No, it's tight. That was Shaq. He was terrible. That was a lot of Shaq. Yeah.

I don't. Hey, C-Mac, I don't have a tight end. Like, I guess you could go Goddard, but I don't know. I think they just want to run with Barkley a thousand times. And I don't know that the Redskins can play the lead. I don't think the Redskins tight end. If you want to bet on Zach Ertz and watch him run around, that's

good. I don't know if that's going to be that fun. And the other game, dude, the Bills don't even care about Kincaid anymore. He's just like whatever. I mean maybe he could go Knox, longest reception just for the vibes. But, like there's not a lot going on, man, in the whole tight end game right now. Oh, yeah, they're not the Redskins.

Whatever. I got grandfathered in. Like the Redskins my whole life. And then I'm in my mid-40s and all of a sudden we're the football team. Then we're the commanders. Like I – you're also the Redskins my whole life, and then I'm in my mid-40s, and all of a sudden we're the football team, then we're the commanders. You're also the Redskins. It's like talking to my grandpa right now. It's like, you know, I didn't know it was anything else.

I just got used to calling him the Redskins. Yeah, what are you supposed to do? It's forever. Those helmets were sweet. You remember those helmets? They were sweet. The field was good. I don't think there's anything wrong with it.

I think the people who wanted to change would probably disagree with you, but to each their own. Other than them. Other than them. I'm just saying we made it a long time before we started even talking about this. Dude, this happened when I was an adult, dude. I was a child watching them play. Remember the posse?

Yeah, absolutely. Gary Clark, Art Mon Clark, Ricky Sanders. Get some. Those were Redskins. They were amazing. Alright. You have two more, right? You have two more, don't you?

One more, right? One more what? Patrick's thought here. Yeah, Connor, you had nothing else, right? No, I'm good. Mine was Eckler and Allen won. Okay.

All right. Yeah, let me make sure I can bet this here. Yeah, it's tricky. It's going to be tricky to build some parlay action here too, but we can get into it and see if we can get some. We just get one over the finish line too. We just pick two, three things and we get a taste of a W. Just see what it feels like for a minute here.

Parlay is fun to win. It's not been our strength this year. All right. Just water it down. Have you seen those conversations? Yeah, I love the water it down. Just water it down, bro. Just water it down. you seen this conversation yeah i love the water yeah we'll water it down bro water it down and they won i love that that's my favorite the water down crowd like yeah because people are posting their their parlay slips like their 12 leg parlays and then they're like well we didn't win but if you water it down you won

and like all these people are like praising them like for watering it down no they'll post the water down one that's not even theirs they found it in the disney somebody sent it to them and then they'll post it like dude one of our guys watered it down you're like yeah but that's not yours like that's not what you told me to bet like so i don't get it yeah all right so yeah i mean just water it down all the way it's like minus 300 per player and then instead of the plus 300 that we recommended, and I bet you you'll see some more winners, probably long term negative EV, but so is losing every play, which is what we've been doing. I don't know. I mean, who knows? We lose less, though. I just think it's funny.

We lose way less. You know what I mean? That's the key to parlay. People don't talk about that. The longer shot that is, the less you lose. Did you see Booker with Trent started betting straights and then lost 14 in a row? I almost replied to him. I was like, you would have lost less if you parlayed them all because you would have been betting less. Like, I'm just going to spend $100 on three or four each week. Exactly.

0 and 14. Incredible. All right. Daniel, where's your ticket, big dog? Where's your ticket? You got Twitter? Come on, Daniel. What's your ROI, Daniel?

Dude, people do this all the time. People come and slop all the time for this, and he just shoves a screenshot in everyone's face, and people just still keep coming back. I don't think he has Twitter, this guy. We were talking to him last time. This is the same guy, right? Yeah. I'm surprised he still has a computer if he faded damn it daniel got repoed he's their own uh all right i still like daniel yeah daniel's still okay here um i wouldn't fade

slop uh don't think it's going to be profitable for you long term based off of his uh continued slip people go in the same thing uh patty mahomes he's pretty good football over 36 and a half passing attempts minus 113 fanduel draft kings uh better price on mgm if you get down there builders in the same range range. This is commonly available across the board. I don't make NFL offensive projections. I know how to. I know where I would start. I went into

it a little bit here. If you do a little bit of the math, looking at plays per game, Buffalo plays against, time of possession, pass rate for Kansas City. You can even take in a little bit of pass rate over expectation. I think this should probably be 36 and a half. I came out to like 39.06 or something like that.

But you know, secondly, you can pass rate over expectation from week 11 on when really the rushing attacks has kind of gotten worse since week 13 to 31st and rushing success rate, just 35.8%. But their pass rate over worse since week 13 to 31st and rushing success rate just 35.8 but their pass rate over expectations since week 11 10.93 that's massive um they are leaning on it and i think they're going to lean on it here they're not getting a lot of cream hunts i think

it's clear that pacheco is not himself at this point we've seen this the last back of the season the homes topped this line nine of the last 10 regular season games christian benford might be out here he's in concussion protocol did not practice again today on friday which is a problem um they're gonna have like kair elam who has not been able to get on the field for two years as a former first round pick uh start they're already without taylor rapp in the back half they're having to start a rookie at safety cole bishop um just a lot of things that look like path of least resistance for kansas city is on the arm of patrick mahomes so um don't have to worry about efficiency here we just need attempts over 36 and a half available everywhere uh slop any thoughts i love it i love that you're doing offensive stuff let's do often

connor any uh thoughts there i know you kind of liked it when i shared with you earlier yeah well i mean i played pacheco under which i think is the same kind of theory right it's like they can't run the ball pacheco sucks kareem hunt still sucks but just sucks less than pacheco right now um i mean they just can't run the ball even against the bills i think hunt had like 14 carries for like 50 something yards maybe he was like a little less than four yards carry around four yards carry which is not very good against a buffalo defense that is not supposed to be very good uh run defense wise but their numbers are actually okay they just got trounced by like derrick henry and

uh i think one or two other guys who were actually a good running team. So I don't think that Kansas City Falls is that. Yeah, I like them homes passing overs for sure. I was trying to figure out which pass catchers to pair it with. So I think there's upside for Hollywood, who played a ton last week, like 70%, 80% route rate. Were these seeing a ton of targets? Kelsey, he didn't look like the Kelsey Bold,

but he performed like the Kelsey Bold, if that makes sense. Kind of looked like Jason Witten out there a little bit, dad running. But I don't know. I don't know if I have a favorite one to go back to pass catcher-wise. I saw it's kind of different in the same vein, though. Hollywood, I think, is like 20-1 to lead the weekend in receiving yards. It's not bad. It's not bad. It feels not bad.

So it was really hard to price what the true price should be on those. But that felt a little bit higher than I was thinking it was going to be. So we'll see. Nice. I like that one. Sorry, go for it. No, I Nah just so annoying I'm just trying to bet this

I got one more play It's just so dumb Can't even you know Can't even bet it What is it Is it only DraftKings DraftKings and FanDuel have this line I'm going to playie louvu the commanders over

a quarter of a sack um it's plus 201 on drakings uh it is plus 155 on fan duel so um pretty big discrepancy but uh louvu is uh he's really just an edge rusher who plays off-ball linebacker. Again, we're coming off of a game last week. Every Philly offensive lineman allowed at least four pressures and gave up a sack. It's pretty wild. They've been a pretty good offensive line. I know that Rams front has been really good, but that's rough.

Hurts, his pressure sack rate this season is 23.5%. Sixth highest in the league. He's like 14 to 17% every year that he's been in the league massively up this year and now we know he's clearly not 100 like he's in a knee brace he's limping around he got rolled up on um so it's not a spot where your hearts is going to be bobbing and weaving um luvu led all linebackers with eight sacks and 29 pressures um his 213 total uh rush attempts to seasons the third most by any off-ball linebacker since next gen stats has been doing this so back to 2016 um he got two sacks the first time they met um he's just lining up basically on passing downs third and fourth down he's lining up as an edge rusher on two thirds of the defensive snaps.

So he's just, he's an edge rusher basically. So like this, it's two to one. I love it. I'm happy with plus 150 on FanDuel as well, which you probably have to go and bet since DraftKings is a little stingy on Friday afternoon prop that they've had posted for six days. So cool. Just kidding. We love it. stingy on friday afternoon prop that they've had posted for uh six days so um cool just kidding shout out draft king sponsor of the show

um this is just a i mean all-time comment right here different sack magnet than joe exotic i mean That's so good That's really good We got a follow-up here Thoughts on Jalen Carter Love Jalen Carter You know, Jane Daniels and I have been taking a lot of sacks Now the path with You know, interior offensive line injuries For the commanders You could sell me on that for sure

Jalen Carter is a beast Problem is that dude soaks up all the attention offensive line injuries for the commanders. You could sell me on that for sure. Jalen Carter is a beast. Problem is that dude soaks up all the attention and let's do like Milton Williams run free and Nolan Smith get one-on-one. And so Carter's that dude that like, you're going to see collapse the pocket, you know, drive the quarterback into someone else that gets the sack. It's so annoying,

but I don't hate the plus money price. Yeah. Commander's team over two and a half i like that you can take some alts on uh fandal has that alt on sacks like i think five plus sacks is like plus 320 i don't hate that at all so yeah i mean you have good point hurts playing on a bad knee i really was looking at under seven and a half rush times i mean there's certainly some it's there's already a lot baked in there his normal line is like eight and a half nine and a half somewhere in that range so seven and a half i mean knee brace yeah brian mentioned in here he's gonna play on the knee

brace he looked a little gimpy in practice i just worry that doesn't matter i mean they just shoot these guys up with so much drugs like you know i mean he's just gonna power through it he's playing like in his instincts kicking he's probably gonna try and run so i i just couldn't do it but it could take more lead to more sacks. So it was just kind of a stay away from me. Even though my under senses were tingling, I couldn't do it. Yeah. Ty's got this in the chat.

Shout out to Ty. Luvu plus 229 on Builder. You're going to find over a half a sack on any other books. So Caesars, all those other ones. DraftKings and Fan fan duel um it's over a quarter of a sack so if they get a half a sack you still cash so that's why the fan duel or the draft kings price you know it helps a lot so um i don't hate that though for sure i think he should probably be priced um you know closer to maybe 120 uh plus 130 or. So I don't hate that.

Yeah. So if he gets half a sack and he bet over half a sack, you lose technically still, right? Because it's like over half, I guess. That would make sense. Oh, it's a push? Okay. All right. Yeah.

All right. Well, then it's still worth a pop. I mean, it's fun. Yeah. I do have something to run by you guys though real quick. So something we talked about in the chat a little bit or in our Slack chat. I think that there's some interesting SGP scenarios if, like, the Eagles are forced to throw at all because Jalen Hurts' passing problem

is, like, 179 in some spots, 180. A.J. Brown's at 60 yards. Dallas Goddard's at 40 yards. Like, if the commanders get up at all or something happens or just, like – I mean, the Eagles have come out throwing multiple times already. I put together some that it was, like, Jalen Hurts 225 yards, A.J. Brown 70 yards, Dallas Goddard 50 yards, which is, like, what their lines have been, basically, routinely the last, like, I don't know, three years essentially.

And that's, like, 10 10 to 1 12 to 1 so like i don't know i mean i'm not going super hard on it but i think there's some fun upside scenarios like what if jay daniels comes out and it's a bomb like they did against detroit and that's why we lost the golf pass attempt under is because you know detroit fell behind at the throw 40 times and said uh if that happens jaylen hurts he's gonna throw for like 300 yards and everyone's gonna smash their overs and i mean there's like some serious upside in that because these numbers are just like insanely low um it's like even though a normal scenario saquon probably runs for 150 25 28 carries but there's i mean there's a little volatility there stew posted a great stat too like i think it was like they've been stopped for two yards or less on their runs

on like nearly 40 of of their runs against Washington. He just hit a couple of big home runs. So I don't know. There's just some, there's a lot of uncertain more uncertainty here than I think that what's projected in the numbers. I'm not exactly sure the best way to play it, but it's probably a couple of SGPs or I played some DFS with some Hertz stacks for anyone still grinding those streets. I don't know. Kind of fun. I like it. You can also, you know kind of fun i like it you can also you know in that sense what you're talking about has a commander's team total leg over right because this is kind of the scenario we're talking about right you can get into uh slop's leg of jane

daniels three touchdowns like there's some you know these things are the other side of the correlation that pushes hurts to start popping so you know, we can just build a SGP for each game. Literally, I put together our thing so far, but it's only because Caesars is basically all I can bet here. Well, yeah, so Josh Allen, rush attempt. So 13 rush attempts I did is plus 390. We could water it down, 13 to plus 390 I thought was pretty interesting um Mahomes they don't let you all to pass attempts so just 36 and a half pass attempts I put in there um Daniel's three plus touchdowns shout out slop

and then Eckler five receptions that's 100 to one um just those four legs so let's do it I mean that seems great to me. 100 to 1 on four legs. That's great. Slop, what did the kids think back there? Are they into it? No, the dog. So one, the older dog went into the younger dog's cage. Oh, no.

And now the younger dog not happy. So we're going to see how this plays out. Probably not going to be good for me. But we'll see what happens yeah i don't know no but um it's like you said you got to build these like you're building a dfs lineup you know if you're trying to build a an sgp then go with something that yeah you know if you want to go contrarian you know then just start looking at it from the opposite way the spread is and then go work backwards so that would mean Daniels with his touchdown passes.

If that happens, that means Hurts with his. So that's against what everybody else is going to be playing, you know, for the most part. Obviously, there's going to be some guys that are going to do the same thing. But you can build nice ones like that that can easily get home only because you were just thinking contrarian, that's all. But you're getting paid for it price-wise. You know what I you know what i mean like that's you would do it in the first place if you did that in the the lions game i mean you probably would have crushed like i mean

like again like again golf 40 past times or whatever i think you got to 39 which you didn't even get to the last drive which which sucked because we had the under but you know like i mean like all those would have been good yeah die army brown like i think there's a lot of there's a lot of juice there if you think differently on these games which i think there is an opportunity with this eagles game uncorrelated here for all of them like every game there's an opportunity they're not always going to hit but i'm saying when you start building them like that you you really start to kind of see the board a lot differently and then also too you see overlapping opportunities where, like,

well, this fits for the contrarian approach, but this also fits for this one. So now that's a play, you know, and that's just kind of how I go about it. Totally. Mahomes' alts on yards I think is pretty interesting, too. Patrick's mentioned that. Plus 275 and over 300 yards. Like, if they can't run the ball, maybe Buffalo gets ahead. I mean, Mahomes could throw for like 350.

I wouldn't be surprised at all. What if both of them? What if both of them have long passes early on, and it's turned into just one of those games? I'm telling you, Christian Benford is fifth in PFF grade this season. He is a legit difference maker at corner for them it's not just their starting corner we're talking about actually one of the best coverage corners in the league him being out is massively impactful friday still in concussion protocol the concussion was

like a fourth quarter nothing matter if it's the first quarter you know but like i i don't think he's getting out of concussion protocol in time. So did you see that? Yeah. I mean, so that's a big, big thing for, you know, Mahomes chiefs specific type,

you know, passing props. So that's why I think like the, you know, Hollywood to lead the, you know, the day and, and receiving yards,

considering there's really no clear bills guy, right? Like these dudes are all just sharing 40 snaps um you know then you have the eagles that we don't we're not sure if they're going to pass then it's what it's mclaren it's diami brown exploding or something like that like i don't know um you're probably against kelsey and and worthy right now all of a sudden we're talking about the top three options are probably coming from the same squad we should should probably be looking at my home's 300 plus numbers. So I like it.

Good call. Yeah. Yeah. Daniel, AJ Brown dropped too long passes too busy reading books. Yeah, that's for sure. I think we got to everything in the chat here pretty much too,

that I had starred. Yeah. It was everything here. This is just just this is why i had starred again this is crack you up um all right um i don't have anything else you guys have anything else what four legs 101 yeah four legs 101 i'm gonna run downstairs here and bet it um and then i mean i'll i can screenshot and send it to you guys right now as well. Definitely do that. I hate how you have to re-download apps

in Vegas. Shit blows. Yeah, that ain't good. Vegas is low-key sucks to bet in sports. It's just annoying. It used to be just absolutely nuts because you could come here and do everything. Now mobile gaming has just spoiled us so much. Ruined the whole thing. Yep. Alright all right love it great stuff as always um find slop on twitter at slop rules find slop on

youtube just google hi slop you find all his stuff um yeah we'll come back and do it all again in a couple of weeks over the super bowl so uh, Forslop and Connor, I'm Ryan. Thanks, everyone.