Move The Line - Expert NFL Championship Week 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 26, 2024

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Championship Week player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Lamar Jackson and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Championship Week, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Wild Card betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼  / sloprules  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Ryan Noonan back with my friends to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on nfl football which is sadly coming to an end and that is your player props we are going to continue here uh you want to subscribe to the channel we have obviously some super bowl content still to come uh connor and i will you know take a beat for probably a week or so we'll be right back in it with Move the Line episodes, off-season content, what's going on in the world of football. We will get our hands and fingers dirty in the weeds of the NFL draft, betting to support that as well. So subscribe here to the 444Bets YouTube channel,

the podcast feed as well. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. What's going on, bud? Yeah, I know. It's been a good week. It's one of those that's been mirrored by a scandal. It's been pretty crazy out here and one that shook the world. And I don't think that people understand fully the ramifications that it might have on the

industry. So I'm excited to talk about the episode. But as you know, we're trustworthy folks. We got Slott paying for mortgages out there. We got us probably paying for not quite mortgages, but you know, maybe a couple of things here and there. So, you know, Hey, we're, we're doing this the right way. You know, we're not like the NFFC or whatever it is. Oh boy. Oh, joining us here as always a man from odds jam. Uh, it's handsome as the day is long to find them on Twitter at slop rules.

John, I slap it slap someone hey what's up guys uh yeah connor i uh i'm not even a fantasy guy like i'm i don't know what kind of i guess i'm a betting guy and that's it but like i don't really get into the fancy streets but uh i watched an hour-long episode of a podcast i meant to watch like the first couple minutes to find out what was happening but i just kept watching i couldn't believe what I was hearing. I was like, dude, no shit? So yeah. Wild stuff, Connor. Wild stuff.

Yeah. So more fantasy related, but if people are not aware, you are completely outside of the bubble of what can happen in fantasy. And there are numerous post-season... Again, there are numerous post-season uh you know again there are numerous this this company hosts regular season uh fantasy of all sorts and shapes and

sizes um there's been some uh alleged not even alleged at this point some caught uh cheating uh i don't even have to dance around alleged to cover my own ass the guy who cheated is gonna he's got some his own ass to cover here uh connor if you want to share a little bit about what's going on with that we're just kind of kind of talking pre-show about that. We thought we'd maybe just hit the button, and we could talk a little bit more about some of the stuff that's going on and how it's just interesting. Because, you know, integrity is a big piece of all that we're doing

in, like, the speculative football space, whether it's, you know, we deal with it, we talk about it a couple episodes ago around, like, football, Twitter, cappers, and locks, you know, go all in on this, posting dead numbers, lines from pick-em-only sites. Yeah, like all this crap that, you know, so it is somewhat like these things are kind of in the same, they're in bed together.

But yeah, I wonder if you could fill the folks in briefly. Yeah, I'll give you guys a quick summary. So if you guys want to listen to a whole hour long episode, it's over on the Ship Chasing YouTube channel. Peter Overzet, Pat Corain,, Ben Gratch all did a great job breaking that down. And the reason that they figured it out is because they were in the contest near the top. And so basically what happened, it's like a playoff fantasy contest, whatever, like a couple hundred bucks entry. And the way that it happened is they were near the

top with someone else. And they made a decision to pick Travis Kelsey and the other people picked or she rice at lock. So they all screenshot it and send it to each other. And they're like, Oh, this is awesome. And then like 30 minutes later, after Travis Kelsey scored like a touchdown and like, it was an awesome game. They see that the guy didn't move down at all. So they're like, how is this possible? Cause he's where she writes and we have Travis Kelsey and he changed it to Travis Kelsey somehow. So they go back and look at the log. They find out that he moved, that he has changed his player in the lineup,

like after lock. And then, so they're like, wow, like how could this be possible? You know, yada, yada. They went back and forth, talked to NFFC. NFFC confirmed that they, that this happened and the employee involved, who I think was helping like a cousin or something

that it was revealed or someone like maybe loosely related, you know, was, was changing the lineup. or someone like maybe loosely related, um, you know, was, was changing the lineup. And so everyone was obviously like, well, if this happened once randomly that one person randomly found, it probably happened again. Now there's more people tweeting out other examples with literally screenshots of times where someone has won and won a lot of money, right? What was it? No, no, no. It was like a couple hundred thousand bucks. I think someone, it was. Yeah. Yeah, the guy in question has a, whatever, like the family members,

he's got a top five finish in the last couple of years. Yeah, like 20K. So yeah, not great, not great. Yes. So, I mean, this is obviously massive. And then what makes things, this whole thing even better is that the owner of the company

came out on their forum or whatever, like apologizing to everyone, but went through the full grieving cycle within a day. And so I was really mad, but then I forgave him. But then I realized it was just demons. Demons were inside of him and he's got to get rid of those demons, but I fully support him. Which, I mean, look, I get it if you personally want to have those opinions, if that's how you go through the process of your coal company being completely fucked, I understand, but that is 0% the right PR move, complete disaster. Now people are trying to dig up more. So I don't know. I thought it was wild. We were talking about a pre-show and I was

like, we just got to record and let air some grievances here because I mean, first off scumbag behavior, uh, like as Timothyothy said near the chat but second off uh the demons bought this was wild yeah i mean that was kind of a great addition to the story to be honest with you like as a guy like see i watch from the outside so i'm not involved at all like i haven't played dfs in years i sucked when i did uh i just only did because we didn't have gambling here in massachusetts so like what else are you going to do? But I was into it. I did, I understand it. It's just, you know, you just never did it.

To hear something like this though, and to watch it unfold like right in front of you is crazy because this is probably the last thing that these companies need happening is people getting screwed in big money contests because integrity is literally the only thing you have to have in these like you the people coming in and putting their money in have to know that no one's going to get to change a lineup after a guy scores a touchdown like that's the only thing that has to happen like

other than that like you can pretty much like let the shit can go crazy pretty low bar slot pretty low bar you get that one thing alone you'll probably survive for a while you you don't have that you're not going to survive it like that's the last to see them watch and i yeah what we were saying too is that like it felt like the guy was handling it is it was like a message board in your home league and like you know hey guys this is you know this guy's been our friend for a long time really sorry about this this sucks right like we lost a friend this is a real bummer you are a business you are a uh you know you were running a company that was not a letter to you know the other 10 people in the home league like

you have people putting i'm sure people are putting a crap ton of money you know playing multiple entries and all sorts of stuff in there. Like it's, that's not what you're doing here. So it was really wild to have that. Like, and that guy has been around for a very long time in the space is like a fantasy guy and hosting these things. Like you just got to know better. It's just very interesting to see. Like I was telling the guys too, like if you've been around for a while or you've been in the DFS space, you know, everyone, like the old thing in the news was ethan gates uh at the time ethan was my boss hired me was my direct report at draft kings very nice kid had access to the ownership in draft

kings contest at the time employees are allowed to play you just couldn't play on draft kings if you work for draft kings you can play on draft kings if you work for fanduel but not vice versa ethan had access to ownership on draft kings and sent out a tweet kind of like showing that he had access to it happened the same day as the tweet went out it banked a big tournament on fanduel this is nowhere near that i you can give me you can give me ownership on one site you can give me ownership on the one same site, and I could still make you a absolute loser of a lineup. That's not what Ethan did, and that blew up in a massive, massive way.

It got government involved and all sorts of stuff. That was nowhere near this, and I'm not just caping up for Ethan because I felt like he got dragged for no reason because, again, it looked bad. The aesthetics of it were really bad. This is all of that and more. because i felt like he got dragged for no reason because again it looked it looked bad the aesthetics of it were really bad this is all of that and more this is like the assumption of whatever you thought that ethan could have been possibly doing with knowing again a completely different game drafting like roster style points completely different salaries but like this was like one-on-one post-game cheating so kind of a wild thing i'm interested to see where it goes they came out with a guarantee slop but this was the only time no i said that was the that was the thing i

was talking about the integrity like that wasn't even bad i remember when that happened i remember thinking like i was so like not good like i really didn't understand how ownerships could even help you and i was thinking like you know that wasn't that really wasn't, like, that bad. Does that make sense? Like, he knew owners. Like, that is nowhere near, like, changing a lineup after a guy scored a touchdown. That's absurd. Like, that's just so, like, you should be in jail. Like, you should literally go to jail for that.

Like, that should be a, like, you should lock the dude up. Like, I'm not even a lock-em-up guy. You know what I mean? Like, I'd say, look at what lives, bro. Like that's just a little, that's a little too much living for me. It honestly reminds me of the McDonald's monopoly scandal. I don't know if you saw that with like a guy running the monopoly scandal knew, like basically had access to the tickets. So we would feed them to family members and friends in different locations. Like, Hey, you need to go to this thing at this time and buy something and

then here's the ticket and then like you will you'll have it so that was pretty wild too if you ever read about that as a pretty cool it was even worse than that not cool they made that helping out handing it to people yeah like this is like that's it's way past helping it's like all right well like i don't know like that's crazy past helping. It's like, all right, well, like, I don't know. Like, that's crazy. Yeah. So yeah, it's, it's wild. And, and, you know, I think the whole demon thing was just like a massive cope and super strange, but I mean, the reality is it's, it's, it's greed.

I mean, it's like, you're greedy because you not only did this once, you've done this at least multiple times. I mean, I would guess 10, 20 times. I mean, how many times has this happened? Every year there's a major contest probably. Right. So like, I mean, you not only had 30,

literally the balls and lack of integrity to do it once, but you are so fucking greedy that you went back for more like every year, just like, fuck it. I'm never going to get caught. Well, that's the thing, right?

You don't get caught the one time. Do you, why? Like, what are we doing? Why wouldn't we be a push? That's like, that's kind of what this always happens,

right? It's always, you know, there's kind of what this always happens. There's all those, gosh, I forget what they, MSNBC is like greed. They do these hour-long. American Greed. American Greed, fantastic. Great show. Great show.

But it's all like you dip your toes in and you don't get caught. You got to get more, dude. You got to go back and get more. Let's see where this thing goes. Yeah. So, like, there's – of course, you got in. You got out without anything happening. Your boy won 20K. Like, what's up with you?

I don't blame him for doing it again. I'll be honest. That's the only thing I kind of agree with the guy on. Like, dude, just go until they stop it. You know what I mean? Like, keep running the same play over and over. But, like, I just think the stealing in the first – like, that's just – because, like, you're not even – even like even if you want to get on like justifying stealing like you're not

you're stealing from like regular guys that are like i don't know like it's just there's got to be some code between like gamblers that like we don't steal from each other i'll play you for it but like i'm not gonna fucking steal it from you like that's that's messed up like i don't know that again that's why you should go to jail. That's jail time. Like there's no, if I was the judge, let's say I was in charge, jail. Like today, no puns.

We'll talk about it in a year from now. Yeah, not great. So yeah, hopefully that's, you know, again, these are not betting per se. We're in the same family, but it's, you know, same integrity levels we would hopefully have here. So, yeah, greed is the demon, I guess, Connor. The demons.

Like, the demons is very fun. Like, that's a great twist to the story. Again, I like watching them unfold. I hope they find, like, 10 or 15 more. And I'm sorry to anyone that got stolen from, but, like, dude, the toothpaste already had a tube. Like, you all got fucked. You know what I mean?

Like, it sucks. But, like, I kind of want to hear about more of them just because i want to hear like what what do you say after you come out and say that it only happened once and it was an accident i think it was an accident the first like until they found a second one they're like well maybe that wasn't you know what i mean you're like well buddy how do you not see that there's like gonna be way more of these like You got to get in front of that. And he didn't. So now it's just fun to watch what's going to happen when they find more. Does that make sense?

It's been a master class of PR disaster. Literally, we guarantee nothing else happened. How can you even guarantee that? How would you know that nothing else happened? I can take a crap in a box and mark it guaranteed. I have the time. Yeah, that's a whole tommy boy reference but like it doesn't it doesn't mean anything and there's no chance you had the time like you didn't have

the time don't do that to yourself don't box yourself in the corner and they didn't yeah yeah yeah anyway kids y'all the kids want to never ever ever box you up in the corner no four four bets with the addition of high slop. We're on the up and up. We're giving, like you said, no stale bread. We give you live lines. That's the best that we can do from an integrity standpoint. We'll go down with the ship too.

Slop wants to bet alts on the number of times that this guy did this, which I absolutely love. That is also on brand. He's not taking the binary over, under, four and a half. He wants to go. Never under. Let's push it up. four and a half. He wants to go. He's never under. So there's a lock. There's a lock.

All caps. Let's go. All caps. All. We're still going to have two Superbowl shows. We'll have a regular show to do, you know, game breakdowns and then we'll do a prop show of some form.

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and all that we have going on over at 4-4, even though the time is running out to the end of the season, the betting subscription takes you to the end of February. That gets you obviously this weekend. It'll get you the Super Bowl. We got a Super Bowl menu, pretty expansive. You want to get in the Discord, see all the things that we're talking about.

You're very passionate, like-minded community that I'm sure will be looking to uncover every angle for the big game as well. Again, $9.99, super cheap. So 444.com slash plans, less than 10 bucks. Again, that's going to get you a lot of NBA picks as well. MMA events between now and the end of February too. You can check that out for really cheap.

Again, no discount code needed or anything. Just go to the plans page, 404.com slash plans. All right. Connor, a little tougher this week. Floor is yours to start. Obviously, to pick a couple of props and some spice is a little trickier when we don't have a full slate, but I think we managed to do with this. So we can give you the floor.

Let you get started with the playoffs here. What do we got? Yeah. My first one is going to be an over. I already played all my unders, which we'll talk about later. You know, got a gross slop out a little bit still,

but I played my first over the week right now, justice Hill over 50 and a half rushing receiving yards combined. I like the combined box prop specifically here. Hill led the Ravens last week in snaps, touches and yards and a dominant rushing receiving yards combined. I like the combined box prop specifically here. He'll led the Ravens last week and snaps touches in yards and a dominant win over Houston, despite them playing with the lead. The Ravens have ramped up his usage too. I mean, he's looked good the last few weeks, the last three games he's, you know, played way more.

He's had over a 50% routes run rate in those games, in those three games, 57, 112, 77 combined yards. Now he gets to chiefs. Chiefs are allowing over five yards per carry out of the shotgun. Ravens are allowing one of the second highest rates in the league in runs out of the shotgun. So they run the ball a bunch out of shotgun. I think that kind of spells for a little bit more Justice Hill than Gus Edwards anyways. And then if we get a negative game script here, I mean, Justice Hill is going to have a hundred rushing receiving yards. It'll

be like 50 receiving yards. But regardless, I think that this is a good look from the rushing standpoint. He could hit 50 rushing yards, I think pretty easily, but you add in the receiving component here. I really liked the over, um, you can bet this on draftings to 75 plus or plus three 40, which I think it should be closer to like 60 rushing receiving yards, 65 rushing receiving yards is the regular line. So massive value there. And then a hundred plus rushing receiving yards is like 10 to one right now. So I this line of fan duel which is minus 110 right now um but you know i think that all are good looks and that could be a lot of just still could be a lot of gus edwards i think you're gonna see just like a bunch of a bunch of that from both backs

here so i think we see a good good chunk of both here over for connor just get started slap any thoughts on raven's backfield there, Justice Hill, how that breaks out? Yeah, I have no idea how that game is going to go. I'm pretty scared of that game. But I do like that, though. It's an over. Conor actually looked into it. I'm in.

Yeah, it's like Conor talked about last week, his conviction on my tackle underplays. It's kind of my conviction on Con Connor's, some of his overplays. It's not something he defaults to. So when he feels that there's an edge to be had in an over, knowing that that's not how he typically works. He doesn't want to even do it. Like he has to.

He doesn't want to do it. His hands are tied. I know he's looking as hard as he can to poke a hole. Yeah, and he can't do it. He's like, I have to take this over poke a hole. Yeah. And he's like, I have to take this over. I don't want to. He's like mad about it. Thanks for not pounding Connor and sharing with the people.

Slop. What do you got for us? What's the first one for you today? All right. So I don't love either game. Like I don't see a ton of like, you know, you can ladder all the way up.

Like, you know what I'm saying? Like I want to go up to of like, you know, you can ladder all the way up. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, I want to go up to the moon. But what we could do with the 49ers game, Brock Purdy over – I'm looking at the screen right now. Over 29.5 pass attempts or minus 122 at FanDuel. It's 30.5 everywhere else. So there is that.

I mean, here's the thing, though. I think he's going to have to throw the ball. Like he threw the ball 39 times in that game last week. They barely won. I don't think the Lions are a real seven-point dog. I think they could cover or at least give a game. On top of that, I think they can stop the run enough to kind of force San Francisco's hand even if you know it is like one of those neutral game scripts the last seven quarterbacks to face

the Lions all through the ball more than 31 times so I mean we're talking Justin Fields is one of those guys and he's not even allowed to throw so like I mean like we got we got options here also too uh from a game script perspective the last time the Ravens lost with Purdy was Christmas against the Ravens. He threw the ball 32 times that night. He didn't even finish that game. I think Darnold threw the ball like 14 times. So let's say Purdy doesn't get benched, which that's a big if, like if things start going – like there is – that could happen.

I'm not saying it's going to or it's even likely, but that's a possibility. You're going to sit down and watch this game, and your guy's going. There is that. That could happen. I'm not saying it's going to or it's even likely, but that's a possibility. You're going to sit down and watch this game, and your guy's going to get benched, but I don't think that's going to happen. I think he could throw it 37, 38 times. Right now at Fanatics, if you want it 36 plus, plus 310, that's not that ridiculous.

That's not crazy at all. So that's where I'm at for the first one. I think that's my spiciest one, too. So there's that. That's a little spicy. Connor, any thoughts there? No, I like it. I think that the Niners are going to have to throw more than they're going to run.

Like, the Lions are a pass funnel. They're, you know, allowing over 300 yards per game, over 8.5 yards per attempt since the bye. Like, they're literally just getting rinsed through the air. Also, it looks like Debo might be back. so i think that could be a good look as well um like there's all these different variety of you know ways where i think that pretty strong a little bit more the only one that doesn't work is like golf throws two pick sixes i mean that's the only way it doesn't hit is like like that's how it would have to be because i don't really think the niners are going to have like a ton of success running i think they might have more

success than like the numbers would suggest but i don't think they're going to be able I don't really think the Niners are going to have like a ton of success running I think they might have more success than like the numbers would suggest but I don't think they're going to be able to just like go massively run heavy you know yeah short pass game though Connor you know what I mean like they they actually can do that kind of stuff like they have those concepts where like they don't mind you know swing passes the running backs stuff like that I don't know I to be honest with you what do you think about this is like don't even do the 29 and a half just because if he's gonna throw 30 plus, it's probably going to be closer to 40. Do you know what I'm trying to say? You're probably in a game script where he's going to throw it 36 times.

Plus 310. That's a good price, I think, for 36. That's not a record. It's a good price. Where is that at? Where are you going to find 36? You can get 38 plus. It's plus 450 price. Where is that at, Sob? Where can you find 36? You can get 38 plus. It's plus 450.

Not crazy. I mean, he just threw 39 times last week. You just need the game to get hot, you know? Yeah. Weather's not bad. I checked the weather. I know you guys aren't weather guys, but, like, check the weather. Seems nice enough.

It's going to be nice. Toss the old pigskin around like 40 times i mean if you wanted 40 it's plus 750 42 plus 10 50 42 is not that much what do they get behind although they get behind. You're absolutely cooking them with gas for sure, which is possible. I mean, Detroit can score, right? I mean, we know that's – yeah. They scored on them last week. They didn't look great against the run either.

That's the problem. You could just run the ball down their throat if you wanted to. And that's part of the problem. That's part of the problem for Purdy attempts. Yeah. Well, the time – Yeah. But, I mean, if you can move the ball. Yeah. Yeah. problem for pretty attempts yeah well the time yeah but i mean like stick together yeah yeah

you see the right kind of runs too you know what i mean like give me like a nice break off a nice chunk like chunks here instead of the you know like five times every time give me like 40 you know stuff like that i don't know i'm just saying i don't think the attempts are – I don't think that's – like the first time I saw that number, I was like, wow, like that feels super low. Yeah, there's probably some opportunities based off of what we saw last time with Purdy and people obviously – it was not Purdy. It was raining. He played poorly at a game.

It was not a typical Niners game script for sure. So, yeah, I think – Is he a little hands guy? You guys – He's a little hands guy. You guys, right? You guys, little hands to him? He's think little hands guy you guys guys right you guys little hand to him he's a little hands guy yeah i thought so i could tell i might be a guy too i didn't even know it but i was watching the game last night he's got those little little hands yeah you got a little baby mitts you know i got a little little baby gloves yeah he tried the

medium glove the medium glove was a little too big he tried the small glove then he's like just just it's large just kicked off the glove pre-game we talked about this a couple weeks ago but we could have had just like a straight up all-time weather game between golf and purdy if we got like any weather of you know between them the small hands game you know like the two combined have the same size hands as you know me which is like who has the pretty small hands in the nfl is it pickett is he the smallest hand guy pickett has tiny hands uh i believe randall allen double call time out where are we getting the numbers from the combine combine okay and that just hangs with the guy forever because his hands aren't

going to get bigger probably not growing in hand size from like uh 22 to 24 i don't know maybe yeah eight and a half inches i mean that seems like aggressively small yeah those are a little loads of baby hands like those are like that's small yeah that's bad i don't have i don't have big mitts but i have bigger than than picket and i don't have big mitts at all so i can i can palm a basketball and i do not have big hands i mean i it has to be like the rubber ones though or i drop it like that but still i'm just saying not big hands so there's i don't know i thought you were going to give us a rundown connor a couple other uh i'm looking tasem hill is super small hands jared goff purdy um i'm looking yeah it's like teddy bridgewater's got super small hands a lot of them wear gloves because they need like some grip that's why yeah yeah i think i would go

gloves if i like obviously just get gloves grip bam i'm you're all set but they gloves grow your hands they say probably is that how that works quote quote uh yeah joe burrow had the smallest hands uh in his class apparently but nine inches so like that's like i feel like that's the that's the threshold you know if you have smaller than nine inch hands you're just kind of screwed like you're you yeah you're in trouble during the weather i'll take whole pepper hands i think he had little hands who's got the biggest Who's got the biggest hands out there, Connor? I think it was

John Hyslop. No, I'm just kidding. All the Hall of Famers. Brady. Let's see here. We got smallest and biggest. Let's see here. Russell Wilson, massive hands hands 10 and a quarter rogers 10 and an eighth josh allen stafford prescott i mean i see a pretty good correlation

here to good quarterbacks and hand size this is herbert t law tua ben roethlisberger and kirk both have above average hands and then we start getting into the shitters. You know, we got like the Daniel Jones, Mack Jones, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan. It's a little bit of older lists, but these are like the nine and a half or less. So those don't work. Nope. Not going to cut it. Not going to cut it.

It's like the arms for pass rush. I learned that in the draft from you guys. Yeah. When they were the Hutchinson and Trayvon Walker. I tried to tell Mike Tannenbaum. We did a show, a draft show within that year, and he was like, Aiden Hutchinson. I was like, dude, it's going to be Trayvon Walker.

Aiden Hutchinson has no UX arms. He can't even reach in his pockets. You know what I mean? He didn't like that very much, but it turns out I was right, and I had you guys to thank. Yeah, if he's got an itch on his knee, he needs to bend over. He needs someone to help him for it. Yeah, no, he's got to phone a friend.

You know what I mean? Get those knees scratched. Turns out he's a better football player than Trayvon, but in terms of what Trent Balky was looking for, that's all we were trying to do there. We were just trying to figure out who was going to be the MVP. 100% right. You guys got paid. I got in way late on that, but

yeah, that was... I learned a lot about arm size. Put it that way. Apparently, it matters in the NFL because they took a guy over another guy because of arm length. All right. First look for me here. I'm going to go in the same game uh in you know maybe a reason that it doesn't work for kittle but we'll see but george kittle

longest reception over 23 and a half yards this is minus 115 on the fan duel uh i mean we know that there's the possibility for angry runs here right like kittle as a ball carrier is one of the best in the league he eclipses mark in nine of the past 11 games great matchup for longest reception props lions have allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the league this season not by a little bit uh and it's gotten worse down the stretch here on the season it's a 10 again league leaders since Since week 13, basically since December, 15.2%. The next closest team, in terms of worst, 11.6%. So they are significantly the worst.

And down the stretch, playing important games, positioning for the playoffs, actual playoff games, two playoff games that counts. They're also one of the worst tackling teams in the league. By far the worst tackling team remaining. So, yeah, I mean, we know they're soft over the middle we know that they like to win there again like some of the kill stuff maybe is a little bit tougher if debo's back in terms of like you know receptions or whatnot but for kiddo to like break one i mean like i said nine of 11 games this is very much in the realm of possibilities and i like it quite a bit here so uh kiddo longest i think

longest whether you want to go pretty longest i think it's like 40 and a half uh there's just lots of ways to do it but i think this is just a little too short for for kiddo who's probably going to have a nice matchup either against an undersized uh safety or you know poorly coverage uh you know poor linebacker in coverage so 23 and a half i think is a really nice number 24 and a half is out there in some other places as well but fandDuel has the best number. And hey, that's why they're sponsoring the show. Connor, any thoughts there? I love it because I think right now the market is a little bit too high on Kittle, on Brandon

Ayuk because Debo's coming back. And the numbers just like haven't adjusted at all. So like they opened at like 57, 58 for Kittle, 71, 72 for Ayuk. Now we're looking like 80s for Ayuk, Kittle in the low 60s. So I prefer, much prefer longest reception at this point because I think Debo is going to play. We're probably, we may not even get a market discount.

We probably should just because the matchup is so good. Like these guys are like, the market can be wrong relative to what it should be. And the guys could still go over it because I mean, the matchup is just awesome. And that's kind of the issue that I face. Like, you know that I would be the first one betting these unders. If I felt like there was an edge,

I did. It was a flowers early in the week. Mark Andrews coming back. I thought we could get a good, nice under there on the receptions. We did. We got great value. You got it at like minus one 15.

It's like minus one 70. Now minus one 50 different spots, but I just don't think the value is there because the matchup is so bad. Like the, so good for, for Kittle. So I love that. Look guys,

the longest reception play. Nice. Slop, any thoughts there? That was the only one that I considered playing this week, like receiving-wise. I'm always looking for a receiver, a big pass game guy. And without knowing about – Big tight end guy too, as we know.

Yeah, huge tight end guy since college. Maybe earlier. But no, but without Dee debo it's tough to take anything kittle or iuk related and i'm not taking iuk now i mean it's like you missed that boat if you like it's over just because i mean 80 something you know that's crazy he could obviously do it like no one's saying that i'm just saying like i i can't do it like i could add 70 you know what i mean so the only thing that like was even remotely playable was Kittle over the launch reception.

I mean, I use is like 20, like 30. Like, it's like he has to catch like a bomb. Yeah, no, that's what I'm saying.

Like, I mean, again, I'm not like, I like IU. Like, I think that's a good play, but the number and price,

like I'm out, I'm out. Yeah. He's, I mean, they should eat. That's why probably Purdy is probably the best way to go about doing this because someone gets a long one for Purdy. Yeah, 40 and a half, I think, is the number. All right, spicy section. Spicy section.

Yeah, that's where he's been all season, though. That's where a lot of guys are, 38.5, 39.5. I thought it was like 35. I'm not really in that market much, but I was thinking, I don't know. I just thought 35, 36 would be high. I swim in the pool. I check in there often, and, yeah, it's typically – I played Purdy longest against the commanders,

who at the time had the highest rate of explosives allowed at 40.5. And, of course, Purdy had a 40-yard completion in that game and not a 41-yard completion. So, yeah, spicy section. Also, at this point, hey, look, Lions are still alive. So this is still the Jammo section, right? We got some Jammo plays here, Connor. What are we looking for for spicy uncorrelated Jammo? Wheremo where we at so we might just have to talk about the spicy section

for the rest of the show because i don't have any other props anymore because they're all just the the market's been you know cooked uh so i got a bunch of stuff we'll just start you know kind of kicking around here i think a fun one that i think is is unique is lamar rushing alts, 80 plus and a hundred plus. He said a hundred plus in three or five playoff games, the chiefs have allowed, you know, other mobile quarterbacks to run on them. Willie Gay didn't practice again today. He's like their main guy who, um, who could spy quarterbacks. Right. Isn't that like, I think that we're looking at a spot here where the way that they use Lamar last week to super creative. I thought that was like, they were using him on the edge. He was getting upfield. He was throwing, or he was

running way more than dumping it off. Um, so I don't know. I think that like his upside here, especially if the Ravens fall behind at all, is just going to be like, I mean, massive. And we're looking at like a hundred plus getting like five to one on that basically. Uh, if you go to draft Kings and then even 80 plus is like two to one so i think i would much prefer that than um like over 66 straight or whatever it is because i mean this this line the median line is way higher than what we see he's normally a mid 50s but then we just saw him run as much as possible last week and so everyone's like in the matchup's good so you're like oh gotta go over again so that's kind of like the issue with it, but I still think there's upside for, you know, his,

his, his like alts there. Yeah. Cook last week. I mean, that was some of the best stuff that I had last week was Lamar to leave that game and rushing Lamar over on attempts. Yeah.

That all, that all came in pretty nice. So yeah, I like it. I think the way to do it, like you said, is, is to ignore the binary number and go straight to the,

the ceiling outcomes here. Slop, what do you got in the spicy section before I kick you back? I know Connor's got more stuff. I don't mind the 100-plus. I think that's how you play it, you know what I mean, the 90-plus, 100-plus, just because, I don't know, like 60-something minus 120, what are we doing? You know what I mean?

He's going to fly over that or he's not going to get near it, I think. Right. What about Jameer Gibbs? Five-plus receptions. I mean, if that turns into a game where the Lions are throwing the ball, I mean, the other side of the Purdy play would be

like, you know, so who's catching these passes from Detroit because you know they're going to be throwing. Sam Fran gave up I think the fourth or fifth most receptions to running backs this season. I think the running backs caught, like, 90 balls on them. Gibbs has – like, they force-fed them at times. Like, when they got rolled by Baltimore, caught nine balls. I know Montgomery didn't play that week,

but there was two other weeks where Montgomery did play, caught seven balls and six balls. He's caught four balls in each of the first two games. If this thing goes south, I mean, why not? Like, what are five balls? It's plus 188 at Fandle. Like, five catches is not a lot. I hate doing running backs because you've really got to nail the game script.

And, like, I mean, sometimes you need garbage time to bail you out. Like, I don't know. I'm not telling you guys anything you don't know. But he seems to be part of, like, their offense, though. It's not – do you know what I mean? Like, it's not just check downs. It's design shit. So, you know, maybe you go over with the check downs.

But 5-plus at plus 28 is not that crazy. I'm so spicy today. That's my next non-spicy play was Gibbs five plus receptions. It was 194 first thing this morning, then it was 188. What about six plus Ryan six plus 320? Well, I want to back up your, your five plus for sure. Cause I think, yeah, you're spot on. I think you nailed it. Cause look at the last two games in like leading game script essentially he had so there's another

alternative here is 40 plus receiving yards is plus 280 uh now he did that the last two games as well four for at least 40 in the past two games uh and if he's catching five or six balls here like we're talking about feel pretty good about him getting to 40 yards as well so yeah i mean like those games you're talking about early season ot loss at home to seattle is a shootout he caught seven of nine targets 39 yards so just short of the 40 yard mark but then you mentioned the games the blowout against baltimore you know game script dependent there caught nine of 10 for 58 yards november against chicago at home the bears are up two scores 26 14 in the fourth gibbs caught six targets 59 yards

so a part your handicap is part of it so i think if like if you like niners a little bit or definitely think like maybe like niners all so the niners can roll then i think you really should like the gibbs prop as well because i think it leads itself into you know just more passing like again if there's issues with the offensive line like there's internal offensive line issues there as well i think you have some edge advantages on the san francisco side too so like just getting the ball out quick you know in like known passing situations we talk about this a lot in our game preview show like clean pocket golf like actually really really good borderline i would say borderline elites in the scenarios in which he takes a snap is kept clean and has time and can process accurate and you know makes

big time throws and protects the football anything any sort of dust gets into the computer chip and it just goes sideways real fast so that's probably going to happen a lot here and when it does yeah that happens a lot so there's like you know you know it's like the nintendo game you gotta take it out blowing it like you're gonna be the blow in it all more too yes so i'm a blow in jared golf what's going on here oh yeah everybody needs, you know what I mean? Gibbs is short of the flat. I think it's just going to happen quite a bit. So, yeah, I mean, again, I like 40-plus yards, plus 280,

five-plus receptions, plus 188. Both those numbers, I think, on Gibbs are nice. I want to be on the record. I hate running back reception props. I hate them like unless it's over one and a half i know the guy's gonna catch like five ball you know what i mean but like you never get those anymore so yeah i'm out but no lines up with the handicap too like of the fact that the niners get pressure without blitzing so like he doesn't have to stay

in and block worst case he's like chipping an edge but like they still get pressure without blitzing. So like, he doesn't have to stay in and block worst case. He's like chipping an edge, but like they're still get pressure. So they got to get the ball out quick, but he'll be like open instead of like staying into max protect, like the bucks, like, you know, they're just blitzing their face off, like, you know, every play possible. So you got to stay in because you have an extra guy, but then if you get pressure with four, like he can go, you know, wander around and do some, run some routes there. And I, I disagree with slop in the sense that I think the Niners put a number on them and don't really keep it that close. So I think that actually helps this prop a little bit more.

Also, a little hack here that I started noticing on Caesars. I'm sure this is going to get changed now that we're talking about it. But so if you go to their alt receptions or their alt markets and you click on... So if you go to Jameer Gibbs, all receptions, five plus is plus 195, six plus is plus 410. But if you click six plus and five plus, just that, nothing else, it makes it plus 450. And the six plus number is plus 410. It's a glitch.

I don't know why it exists. I just did it. I just bet it. So, and if you do, say you want to bet the five plus, you bet four plus and five plus, it turns that plus 195 into plus 200 200. So I mean, again, that's minimal. That's the kind of cheating that I condone.

Like, I think that's, that's a great example of like what's cool and what's not cool. Yeah. I mean, also we're like, you know, kind of Robinhood in this scenario. We're taking money from the rich, from the sports books. We're giving it to the poor, well, we're not poor, like you know kind of robin hood in this scenario we're taking money from the rich from the sports books we're giving it to the poor well we're not poor but you know like the the the middle class and you know like uh you know i think that that's good you know that's exciting we're not like stealing from other other middle class folk you know this is this is not good wait i don't understand what we're doing i just tried to do it didn't work right so all right i select four and select five yeah so you select

four and you select five alt receptions and it makes it plus 200 i don't know if i won't let me do it it just says nothing i just bet it i literally slop i don't know what to tell you it's only on caesars i don't know about the oh caesars i'm on fanduel trying to do it oh no no fanduel we would never do that's a fan that was crazy i was trying to do that's a fan sorry whoa that's bad form um no yeah you want to sponsor our show we won't you know jip you out a couple cents on our parlays so get caesars actually and do this cheat them yeah i did it with stroud rushing attempts a couple weeks ago too that lost but it was you know it felt good in theory so um yeah and same with this this gib stuff it's

kind of fun i'm definitely doing that i wish i would have known that this morning so i would have done it then we made the bet yeah what another jameer gibbs prop market too is the rushing attempts is 14 plus carries is plus 400. I mean, that's like, if for some reason they're having success, massive success running the ball, which, I mean, I think that's their path to least resistance. We could easily see a 16 carries for, you know, Montgomery, 14 carries from Gibbs, as long as they're keeping the game close. I mean, it's plus 400. And if you give us ourselves a little boost here and you click the 13 plus, you get plus 430. Look at that look at that i mean boom value who was the guy who tweeted that is that my boy was that my boy

sal salvitri too that was good um boom value baby um no but that's that's uh that's kind of fun that's fun good looks i want to give another one that is uh again i can't 41 minutes of the show we've not talked about jammo um another one that doesn't doesn't you saving it yeah we can do it this goes it doesn't go against slops purdy stuff because i'm going to talk completions so like we can still get there on attempts but i want to lean into the thought of like you get multiple explosives from this this niners offense right so like we could still get there like on yards and completions being a little bit off and still have like a him go over on the

the attempts number so with Purdy if you want to go on DraftKings under 21 and a half completions over 279 and a half passing yards is plus 460. Now, if you just want to jump it up and let's just go instead of 279 and a half, we'll just add the 20 yards, go 300 plus taking his alt number. That jumps up to eight to one. So you're basically getting like double the value for just adding the extra 20 yards. And look, it's Detroit. Five straight passers have hit 200, 300 plus yards. So we're not asking anyone to do

like nick bones did this very recently uh what's that i'm broken again now i'm gonna be trying to figure out oh my god i can't believe you gave this idea eight to one under 21 and a half completions 300 plus yards 284 a game in december and january you can go uh over attempts half completions, 300 plus yards, 284 a game in December and January. You can go over attempts under completions over yards. Oh, my gosh. Where is that? Is that a DraftKings special, Nunez? Is that what this is?

Because they don't let you do that on FanDuel, which, you know, probably for good reason because it's kind of a hack, but that's awesome. Yeah. Big plays. I'm trying to do it right now. What do we need slop to hit? 37 attempts? That would be amazing.

20 for 37, 310 yards. We're all clicking. We don't have a real – like you can't do the under completions. Oh, wait. My bad. You can't. You can't do the under completions. Oh, wait, my bad. You can't. You can't do a ladder. Sorry.

So under 20 and a half Brock party completions. And then over 30 and a half, it's 750. Okay. So under 20 and a half completions over. Yeah, but I think he's getting the completion. I mean, he'll be close on that. But it's 750, so you should be sweating it. Yeah.

And like I said, DraftKings has a 21 and a half on the completions. I did see some other books are out at 20 and a half on the Purdy completion line. So DraftKings is probably the preferred way to do it since we still have the access to this uncorrelated hack. I'm going to be thinking about this for the rest of the weekend. Let's get the jammo. Let's just rip the bandaid off here. I'm going to throw a jammo out. All right, I'm going.

I'm going. But here, just one more thing. 34 plus attempts under 20 and a half completions plus 2,000. That could happen. Yeah, definitely could happen. Yeah, I'm feeling it happen. Yeah. 20 for 34. Oh, and then 300 plus.

It is. I don't even know. It's broken. I can't see. It's like plus 10,000. It throws for 300 yards. So 20 completions, 34 attempts for 302 yards, and you're rich. Like 50 bucks gets you like five grand.

I mean, you love to see it. It's not that ridiculous. All right. That's what people can dream about. It's like last week I had the uncorrelated Kittle parlays that Noonan brought up on the show. I had that as the first leg, obviously with those ones. So under four and a half receptions, I had 60 plus and 70 plus. He would have hit 80 plus actually had four for 83.

So that was wild. The second half of my leg was Amon Ra under 91 receiving yards and nine and 10 plus receptions. He had eight for 77 missed two five yard catches literally easily. Like at the end of the game. Uh, I mean, I'm just very happy. My wife is not home because I was, I mean, it was like a 13, $15,000 win. If he catches two more balls for less than 15 yards, 16 yards. So, uh, that sucked, but the thought was there. We won a little bit of money. Still Trey Palmer got home for us with under two and a half catches, 25 plus yards. That hit still for like, I think it was like eight to one,

something like that. So I don't know. Those are fun, and I'm excited. I mean, they're so fun. Until they fix it, we're just going to keep jamming them, you know? I think we have to. I think you can do it with like, you know, saying like the IUK thing this week.

The number's crazy. Like under, you know, any of the San Francisco guys, I think your best bet for those blindly is under receptions over yards just because of the big playability there. You could probably do it again with Kittle, right? Like, I feel like Kittle would. There's four of them. Kittle's great.

Play again, I think. Kittle, Iuke would be giving the yardage is already super high. Debo gets the cheap ones. You know, the reception-wise. reception wise but like kittle and uh iuk just go over their yards i mean the yards are ridiculously high but they can get it you know like that's the thing so kittle does exactly what he did last week under four and a half 80 yards 20 to one on fan he gives it us that late drop too so that was also fantastic that was yeah that was that was turned up the field this little bit and i'm like no it was great shark burners is back where

you been shark burners yeah late tax season he said oh i forgot about that love it all right so you want jamo we gotta do something right we do this all right we only have two games left we gotta do something right so he's been in the mix like caught two balls 35 yards last week that's kind of where he's been uh under 250 plus it's 26 to 1 um i, very much. Plus 800 at FanDuel. I'm sorry, plus 800 at Fanatics. FanDuel makes you go 90 plus, plus 880. But if you just, if you want to do this, you could go 80 plus and then his under, hang on, receptions, very fun.

I think he's a two and a half guy though, right? He is, which is even better. Yep, you's a two and a half guy though right he is which is even better yep you need the two and a half no they don't have it at fanatics they don't have its receptions they know two two and a half 50 plus 26 to one on draft games 50 plus it dude it's gonna happen like we cannot have or i'm sorry we cannot not have a bet out on them whenever it happens. A thousand percent. That's going to be my worst nightmare is they're backed up. They're on their own five. He catches like a bullshit slant like the Demaryius Thomas slant.

Yeah. And just keeps going. You're like, wow, he's really fast. No one's going to catch him. It's like that's 90 yards, and I knew that was going to happen at some time, and I did not bet it like an idiot. So not going to happen.

I'm going to have it always. I'll go down with the ship on him. This could be the last time we see him this year. I mean, what better time to use him now? Like you need him. You got to have him. You got to use it now because you've got to use it. Yeah, it's drying up up the wall's drying up so but plus that's a good one yards that's not that crazy

see the thing is too is if you combine like two of these like i mean you're just like talking about like million dollar parlays like that's like or like ten thousand like literally it was like my two kiddo and almon ra ones were not that crazy. It was a $10,000 parlay for $20. I'm not putting $500. That's fun. And it's sharp, I think, semi-sharp, at least not dumb. I can convince myself it is. You know what I mean?

I can convince myself. That's a smart move, John. That was a good call. No, I hate when you post those on Twitter. This has nothing to do with anything. I don't even know where I'm going with this, but I'm going to keep going. But no, when you post them on there and there's like donation, it's like shut up.

Who cares? Of course it is. But 10 grand, dude. It's going to hit once. It's going to hit. And there's no way I'm going to make $10,000 worth of these parlays. Well, maybe. So it's going to take me a while to do it that way.

It's going to take me a while. But I don't know because I think they could hit. It's not $10,000 crazy for $10. You know what I mean? Or $20. Yeah. You need two guys. And they're two instances, really.

That's like all your vans are really two. It's four legs, but it's really two instances. All right. So the jammo uh under two and a half 50 plus and then you add the kittle let's just get a little bit we get more conservative with kill two under four and a half uh and 60 plus right so basically what we're yeah uh 170. 170 to one yep wow dollars I'm like trying to find it right now I mean you could do 50 bucks to win yeah 10 bucks to win uh what 170 or uh 1700 yeah yeah all right all right 1700. Yeah. Yeah. All right. All right. So yeah, I got, watch, let me cook.

All right. So what do you do? You take JMO under two and a half over 80. Over 80. Yeah. He's aggressive on, on two catches, but I'm with you.

I get it. Let's do it. That alone is 126 to one, by the way, that alone is 126. So he's going to catch two balls and fucking house both of them and never catch another ball, right? I mean, we might as well do 90 at this point,

but we're going to keep it conservative and just go 80. That's true. Kittle gets a 60 and goes under four and a half, especially with Debo back. This will basically be on, like, literally one play, and then the rest will be just like nonsense receptions probably it's just the longest anyway i could talk myself into this all right so that'll be ten dollars get you six thousand seven hundred ninety three dollars i mean why not us? It could happen. It's $10.

It is. And if you do 90% demo, that's 10 to get 8,600. One just ridiculously long catch. You know what I mean? He just gets behind people and just no one's going to catch him. That's all we need is one of those. I just bet it while we're talking. So,

you know, why not just throw a couple bucks on it? That could happen. That's not that crazy. I was, I was at like a college basketball game and I was sitting next to someone and they were like, Oh, what'd you bet on for,

for like today? And I'm like, I was like trying to show him a bet, but I'm scrolling through all my other bets that I had out. Like literally it's like, they're like, what the fuck is wrong with you? Cause I'm like, I got all these uncorrelated parlays that I'm like scrolling through show him a bet, but I'm scrolling through all my other bets that I had out. Like literally it's like, they're like, what the fuck is wrong with you? Cause I'm like,

I got all these uncorrelated parlays that I'm like scrolling through. Like, what is this shit? And I'm like, Oh, like, trust me, it's sharp.

It's sharp. Don't worry. No, this is really smart, dude. It's so, I can't even explain it. So smart.

Oh man. Hey, we have, we've hit a bunch. Like, I mean, not one every week, but almost. I mean, we've talked about enough that we're hitting one.

We hit one at least each of the last two weeks. It takes one each week to be profitable, too. That's the thing. I mean, you're not betting 30 of them. Does that make sense? Like, that's the other part of it. Like, you're literally picking and choosing who you're betting here. So, it's not like you have – we say we have a million of them.

You got, like, four. You know what I mean? Like, it's not that ridiculous. Also, also two you could do it game by game so let's say you did a few on the first game you're like you know what i'm not gonna do it again for the second game i i'm cash i'm tapped out or you hit one in the first game now you got more you don't try to say this there's ways oh yeah yeah there's uh there's one or there's a couple that i like for the other game i think there's you could do uh a slice under six and a half receptions. I think it's just way too high.

And then over on yards, like 80 yards, that's like 10 to one, something like that. I mean, seven, like six catches for 80 is like very reasonable, especially with against a tough defense. You could play the MBS game if you want under one and a half receptions. Twenty five plus yards is eight to one. I mean, he sucks, but, you know, whatever. That's a great one. One catch. He's going to get two targets.

They're both going to be 15 plus yards downfield. A thousand percent. I mean. I got it. So if you throw in Rice with the other two that we just mentioned, now you're on like Fand's radar i'm sure they don't want you they're going to make the call they have to they'll go under 80 plus for rice under six and a half receptions i'm with you on the under 10 get you 96 grand i mean it seems pretty easy

right i would say Rice and Kittle. I think those are the best ones, yeah. Take JMO, put them on the back burner. I mean, I don't want to do it. I'm not going to. I'm going to do both. I'm going to do one version with JMO and one without just because I want to get 96 grand. But the Rice one is probably hitting.

And then the Kittle too. Kittle is not. That's not great. That's how you it's like kiddo's not that's not great that's how you play kiddo i think like that's the way especially with debo back let's see one i really like last week i'm just building an lc yeah i'm probably i'm gonna do this one again because i liked it last week did not come through but i i liked it quite a bit on the first game uh pacheco under three and a half catches 25 plus receiving yards uh right you know we don't love the running back reception stuff it could be a little bit uh tougher to predict so we need to not catch four balls it seems like a lot uh you

know we're actually you know we're getting was it minus 160 on under three and a half balls so uh you know book agrees with us 25 plus I mean we know pacheco break tackles and get in a space and you know make a play plus 750. again not even needing to go crazy if you add let me see what we could do here if we take the 25 plus with pacheco when we make it uh we make it 40 plus you want to go a little bit spicier 22 to 1 um so i feel good about 25 plus receiving yards and just catching three balls so you know three balls for 28 yards thanks for your service 750 on dk i think that's uh that's a pretty nice one too i'll have that again i love how this show has just evolved into like a couple serious plays and

then like 30 minutes of uh non-correlated parlays. We got two games to talk about. What are we going to do? What are we supposed to do? Yeah. We talked for 20 minutes about a fantasy, like, you know. Sharkburn has got the ultimate one here. I'm sure no one bet this because this is before we were doing this.

Gus Busk got one pass for 80 yards earlier in the season. I mean, God, that would be the nuts. I mean, his highest receiving prop is like 20. It's so good. And it's not even that we have him for the show. We're just building him on the show, which I think is probably – Oh, yeah. I got a couple of ideas, and then we start spitballing.

I think we just start going. Kelsey could be one as well, although his yards are high. I like the under on his reception. Actually, his reception is down to five and a half now. That's not great. Yeah, you kind of need to – If you hit him at seven and a half, I would wonder. You know what I mean?

I'd probably go over reception under yards on Kelsey. Yeah, but now it's five and a half so i mean going under that it's kind of you get the six and seven range where it's like you're pretty safe if it's seven and a half obviously because that's just counting but yeah i do like the pacheco one and that's a good one yeah i like the pacheco one again i'm gonna go back to the well i like that a lot last week and what are we doing all right i got let's one more do we have do we have nelson agalor receptions no we don't it's a really good one though yeah shoot okay that that would be the one at least i don't think so all right so the optimal one for me are the speed guys uh mBS, J-Mo, two and a half.

So that way you can go under those over the yards. Or the reception ones are at four and a half, five and a half, six. You know what I mean? Where you're just like, I don't think he gets there. You know, because that's just the way. Yeah, the Rice and Kittle are the one. J-Mo, if you want to quit your job. You know what I'm saying?

The Niners spray the board with under-receptions over yards, I think is fine, too. 25 on that is 240 grand. Yeah, I mean, slop. That's perfect. Share that bet with us because I've got to put it in because if you somehow hit it and I don't have that one in, I will be in tears sitting here just upset.

The show might be canceled knowing that we could have won $250,000 each. It's just all the bullshit that we're spewing right now. Okay, so it's obviously nonsense, but it's not that crazy. All right, so you go J-Mo under two 2.5 receptions, 90-plus yards. Not likely, but, again, he just houses like two of them. George Kittle under 4.5 receptions, 60-plus yards. Rasheed Rice under 6.5 recept receptions 80 plus yards 25 bucks gets it 240 grand it's a good day's work easy yeah the problem with like I said like Jmo is obviously the issue

but again uh 70 something something ridiculous like reception wise I don't know I don't know how many he's catching, that's all. Love it. Paying for mortgages here, vacations, additions to your house, whatever you need here. Do we wanna rip through some listener questions here? Yeah, let's do some questions here. We do it a few quick. Slav, you got time or we gotta be quick?

I told him I'd be there 15 minutes. Okay. I'm sorry, 4.15, my bad. Okay, so we'll go five. We have five minutes of questions. I go straight there from here, though, so we're good. I don't have to move. I just open it up.

You don't got to dress up or anything? No, we're all set. I am dressed up. Let's see. Big Dog is very active in the chat this week. KC Kicker over one and a half field goals. I don't know. I guess ask Jeff. Jeff Adgley over one and a half field goals. I don't know. I guess ask Jeff.

Jeff said actually over one and a half field goals made. That's Jeff's kicker play of the week. I kind of like the fact that he said KC kicker. He didn't even name the guy. It's like, that's next level right there. Who cares? I'm talking names. Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. Big Dog said, you know, fuck the names. We're just rolling anyway. Kicker. Jeff said free kashon booty 23 bets a day is light work barely betting at all yeah i mean if you're betting what we bet i mean 23 bets a day is nothing my favorite part of that is that he bet on himself and lost both times which is also hilarious that's tough i do like i know my favorite part was how the story was reported about how much he won.

Like he had 500 grand in winning. I was like, that's not how it works. Like he deposited a large number and withdrew a much smaller number. That's not good. Trust me. Those aren't winnings. But, yeah. He was that negative.

He won all his bets. He was pretty good, man. Look how much he won. It's like, no, no, no. That's whatever. You know what I mean? Like you stop reading right then. So I got, I've got to get dumber if I read this.

I don't know what you guys thought, but my first instinct was where did he get that much money to gamble with? LSU. Like that's not like, right. Like, like this is the, he's done. I mean, was he a big nl guy like i mean i guess enough to gamble with right like i mean and they're paying for all this stuff i'm sure they had nothing else to do with the money so it was just whatever he had he was a legit

negative 80 grand in a year so it's like i mean he had to have money from somewhere after winning all those bets according to the articles that i read i was like that's not how it works guys my bigger concern is that unfortunately i thought the pats are going to need kate shan booty to be a guy that's the despair that the pats are in unfortunately now uh you know kate shan will be i don't know you want to you want a job next year uh jump in this line of dms you know i like how he like he literally took bet on yourself like literally yeah he literally bet on himself, so I'm in. Mayweather did it, so why not?

Always bet on yourself. Always bet on yourself. Yeah, always. I think that's the message here is bet on yourself. Yeah, when in doubt. If I could uncorrelated parlay myself, I would. That would be amazing. Not in an applicable industry uh

let's see we got brian sullivan any look ahead super bowl mvp thoughts pacheco it's 100 to 1 on fan duel everyone out everywhere else 75 to 1 i mean yeah if you think the chiefs are going to win then yeah like i i mean there's probably a couple good look at super bowl mvps this year is like so rarely do quarterbacks not win um also a hard sell to me to have the chiefs win the super bowl and not be my homes yeah yeah that's you can get me on a on a mcafree and i think there's like 750s or eights on mcafree like that is probably something i could be sold on but a chiefs non uh non-homes mvp is hard sell to me i can tell you what the worst bet on the board is me cole hardman 750 to one uh super bowl mvp

no sorry 7 500 so 7 500 to one but still yeah he could win it for the other team maybe yeah i hate to be the donation guy but that, but that's just you're donating to the Paddy Power. That's a donation. That's a real donation. Yeah, that's a real donation. Let's hear it. Big Dogs, golf over one and a half interceptions. Slop, any thoughts on that?

Maybe. I don't like the one and a half on INTs. Give me one. I can do the over a half. But once you get to the one and a half, it's like, yeah. You got to think about future you watching the game and just needing two interceptions. I don't know. You're going to need to mix that in with a bunch of other stuff.

You know what I mean? That cannot be your only bet going in. Yeah. I mean, yes, minus 134 is on FanDuel for just one interception. So I don't know why one and a half. But I don't mind that at minus 134 that's actually kind of nice um just have a interception not two interceptions cmc over four and a half receptions uh noon and thoughts i mean devo's coming back it looks like he's actually like off the injury report today um well now yeah official injury designation will come he's at practice again today though so it looks like he's going to play.

I would lean this way. I looked at it. It just – it's a big number for a running back, and game scripts can really make this tough. So, you know, you need to do the heavy lifting early, depending on what you think of this game. But, yeah, it would be a lean over, but not a play that I'm super confident in. I mean, hey, CMC under four and a half receptions 40 plus yards 10 to 1 50 plus yards 28 to 1 i don't think that's bad uh i think all those niners guys like newton said you know you do

the under receptions over yards because all of them are explosive not sure which ones are going to pop off but uh pretty confident that you know one or two of them are going to have massive days obj over receiving um are you an obj guy slop i don't even know if we've talked about this before no i'm good that was a great coward that catch was sick back in the day the giant one that's like 10 years ago 15 years ago you know it's been a while um it's so good field which is interesting right like yeah that was the problem last week is he really run like uh let's see routes yeah he routes not great he was what he was one of my um he was in the the big parlay the um you know the other great thing about those parlays is you'll hit one side not the other and you're like man we're right there you know yeah exactly yeah but yeah he was one, man, we're right there. You know what I mean? Yep. Exactly. You know what I mean?

Yeah. Like, really not. But yeah, he was one of the ones I was right there with. Like, he had the receptions under, but it's not the yards. So good. Justice Hill, Gibbs combined rushing receiving over. Yeah, we already talked about Hill and Gibbs. I think both of those are really solid looks. Lamar over 100 rushing. I love that as well. Jeff, I want to date T Swift.

So our next album will be about substance abuse and gambling. Wow. All right. Um, I, I wouldn't, yeah, it would make sense.

Um, also a lot of Chicago slander going on from Jeff. Uh, don't appreciate that on Twitter, but you know what? We didn't do that. Another episode. Yeah, I know.

Just hate. He's a hater. You know, it's all right. It's, uh, you know, I, I like Boston. I like the city. Um, I like's a hater. You know, it's all right. It's you know, I like Boston. I like the city.

I like the Northeast. It's nice. I like anybody that's going to stand on their takes, though. If that's his take, he can never, ever, ever relent, though. He can never come back. Like, yeah, I guess you're right. No, no, no. You you said your piece.

Now stay in that corner. You know what I mean? Like you. Yeah. If Jeff Everett wants coming out of Chicago and it's good. you know what i mean like you yeah if jeff ever wants coming out of chicago and it's good you know i mean that's all yeah right exactly no he probably was like touring the south side and like you know it's just like you know going through all the drive-bys and everything and you know it's uh part of the city it's part of the city unfortunately um yeah part of the experience yeah all part of the

experience yeah yeah jimmy come back just come out to the burbs where i am we're kind of a little poo-poo on the burbs it's really nice out here the burbs are great the birth okay my point was that i what i like about chicago in summer is like you get to take a boat through the river you get to go to the playpen go to these nice restaurants and be outside and do all this fun stuff like that exists in the burbs but it's not the same as the city you know because it's like you got to drive and the golfing is amazing in the burbs it's way quieter you know again the burbs is definitely has plenty of pros yeah it's a quick short drive to the city then you can go right back to your house yeah nice right all right everyone we appreciate you hanging out with us i appreciate

it hopefully we uh hopefully make you some money. You know, again, Slaps trying to build additions to your home, get you out of your apartment into a home, whatever your situation is, building 10 to win $205,000 parlays live here on the show. Can't find that anywhere else. So make sure you hit the thumbs up and subscribe on your way out. We'll be back for some sort of Super Bowl nonsense.

And again, just make sure you're hanging out with us here on the four four bets youtube channel because we will uh pick up soon uh draft stuff coming we'll start to look at uh 2024 coaching changes how that impacts the league all those types of things coming soon slop odds jam what do they need to know uh promo code slop the greatest pricing tools in the game i've been using the live eb tool it's legitimate I've been using the live EB tool. It's legitimate. It's crazy. The other night they were behind.

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Check that out. Take advantage. And we'll be back soon. So for Connor and Slop, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Check that out. Take advantage. And we'll be back soon. So for Connor and Slop, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.