Move The Line - Expert NFL Divisional Round 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 19, 2024

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Divisional Round week player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Mike Evans and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for Wild Card week, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Wild Card betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼  / sloprules  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back with my friends to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props here for the divisional rounds. Live here, 3 p.m. Eastern, every Friday on the 444Bets YouTube channel. We're here to give out our favorite plays and to take your questions. Our favorite part of the show. If you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, we appreciate it greatly.

Subscribe to the channel, like the show, all those things, but also jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look is for the week. Pretty full card. Getting tough though, like full is very relative when you only have four games, so a little bit thinner. So your questions would be very helpful today. Love to share as many as we can here. Jumping on with us live on YouTube is your best shot to get the best lines here. These numbers and prices move quickly. If you want the podcast feed, we'll be in your podcast on Friday evening as well. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen.

What's up, bud? Yeah, not a whole lot. I have a lot of hot takes this week, which will either be really good or really bad. Yeah, like a lot. And so I feel like I have a pretty contrarian spot here on game, sides, totals, props. And I think that we'll figure it out. You know, it'll be – I'm excited to see how we do.

Like spicy. Got our Spice King back in his good spot here. We missed him last week traveling. Chat's already letting you know. Daily missed last week. Shout out to Jim for holding it down for us. I think he did a good job. They get some winners in there too.

What's going on, bud? Living the dream, bro. I didn't know we were sponsored by FanDuel. I just recently ranked him as my number one sports book. So shout out FanDuel. They just took Caesars, overtook them for the top spot okay what was there a like it was just fandle i'm very happy with them okay was there like any sort of like what's the analysis behind it was there like bet types the ability to get down like

where are we at it's the ability to get down They tell you in the box how much you can bet. You know what I mean? Like, they let you know what it is because DraftKings started doing that, and then they stopped, and then they do it. Like, it's off and on. So there's that. And then the 10-plus, I'm sorry, every 10-yard increments on rushing receiving yards, big fan of that.

Love plus money. I don't know. They're the people's book right now it's it's it's theirs to lose i i agree and they also have the largest market share right now i think overall in the united states among all sports books which i mean it's not surprising they have probably the best product they let you bet they let everyone bet at least a little bit on almost everything like they're never going to limit you to like well i guess i've been limited like less than 10 bucks on like a couple of crazy crazy markets but like

you know usually minimum we're talking like 30 50 bucks on like long shots and then normal props you know a couple hundred bucks so i i mean can't can't complain look so i got a rule i think it should be across the board is that like uh like a hundred bucks i've seen this in the industry there's another guy that said something similar but like i i a hundred bucks. I've seen this in the industry. There's another guy that says something similar, but like a hundred bucks, like that's it. Like that, that, that should be like the lowest.

Like you're good. I have no idea why that's not a thing, but I think if anyone wants to do that, it would be FanDuel because I can always get a hundred bucks down. That's all I want. I'm not rich. I just want to bet, dude,

but something, you know what I mean I've seen the picket slips though buddy We're doing okay, we're doing alright over here We're in these streets It's about the money and the Thrill of the game It's both, it's the love of the game

And the cash is nice too But you know, how about both Just a little bit of both I agree, we love FanDuel the cash is nice too but you know how about both just a little bit of both you know i agree we love fan duel that's a fantastic book my only issue uh is you know where this is going like you put out tackle props in like the super bowl or like occasionally in the playoffs just give them to me all year round then you'd be unquestioned my favorite book yeah that's fair they should give you i didn't know they didn't do tackle props.

That's messed up. Vandal, come on. You're better than that. Top dollar. Right. Come on. I love betting golf on Vandal too. You can do some things that you can't do other places.

So, yeah, props to Vandal. Sponsor the show. They've been the sponsor all year. Slop, that's okay. Yeah, it takes a minute. Again, I never said I was smart. I never said I was that smart. So in my defense, never said that.

You can't get all of it, buddy. You can't be as handsome as the day is long and be sharp as a tack. Like, it's just you got to pick a lane. A valid point. A lane was picked for you. Yeah, it is what it is. So, yeah, we will do our best. We obviously default to FanDuel lines if they are a spot.

And, you know, they typically are a little bit off market or they do their own thing sometimes and you know i got some fan duel specific stuff here today so uh follow slop on twitter at slop rules uh and all the cool stuff going on in odds jam we'll let them tell you more about that later at the show i'll remind folks this is the second episode of move the line each week on wednesdays connor myself sharp clark 3 p.m or 4 p.m eastern i'm sorry on wednesdays you want to get more sides and totals. You want to get like our matchup thoughts on the divisional round games. You can check that out here on the YouTube channel or in podcasts as well. You want to get all the official plays, the things Connor and I push out to our subscribers at 4 for 4.

You want to get in our Discord. You need access to our betting subscription. It gets you access to all that we do. So you want to bet MMA, NBA. We're still doing that as well, rolling through the end of February. And again, right now you can get it for just $19.99. It's typically like $2.50 for the full season.

Maybe you're considering jumping over, joining us for the full football season in 2024. Jump in now. You'll get a little bit of access to just see what we do. And maybe you're still grinding season long. You play high stakes fantasy. You like best ball, anything like that in the football speculation space we got you covered at four for four you can check it out right now for just $19.99 four for four dot com

slash plans more info in the show notes uh again live lines no stale bread connor uh floor is yours kick us off for the divisional round what do you you got bud? Yeah, I knew slop was coming back. So I wanted to make sure that I got rid of all my unders early in the week. I think I put four or five out, uh, only one over, uh, well two overs now at this point. Then I got another over here and we're going to go to our friends at FanDuel. I think they're offering the best way to do this. And I think you guys will like this one. This has been slop sky all year. I'm going to go with Jamison Williams, 40-plus receiving yards. And I like some of the alts too, but let me go through the regular reasoning here first.

I mean, he ran a season high in route participation, 87%. And we'll get the Rams, I kind of bracketed him, made sure that they didn't get deep. And so he only had two catches for 19 yards. But before that, three games before that with increased usage, 69, 43, 47 yards. Now he matched up against the Bucs team that, you know, blitzes a lot. They leave themselves exposed. He already caught a 45-yard touchdown against them earlier in the season on extremely, extremely limited usage.

Not to mention, I think this game is going to be really exciting. A ton of passing here. Detroit's probably going to skew pass heavy against the Bucs, you know, pass funnel defense here. We saw it early in the season. Again, I mean, Jared Goff had 40 plus attempts in a game that they won 20 to six. And then on the other side, I think the Bucs go pass heavy too, because the Lions, uh, you know, run defense is really good. Their pass evens is not as good. So that just leads to more volume

for everyone. I think this number is way too low. I prefer the 40 plus to just the straight 32 and a half because, you know, he's still a little bit more of a volatile guy, even with the increased usage, we're getting plus money, plus one 18 at FanDuel, plus one 15 to DraftKings. Now I will say that I think, so there's, there's alts in DraftKings. It's like called alt receiving yards that are like, you can get like over 48 and a half yards for two to one. And so I'm like, okay, well, you know, we should probably just wait for that. And then they pulled it off the board like five minutes before the show. So don't know why they did that, but I will be playing that whenever it gets reopened because those are the best odds on alts for sure. Don't go to X plus receiving yards. It's alt receiving yards because

they have to offer an over and an under in that market, which boosts the over odds. So it's just a little hack there for you. those of you using draft skates. Good call out. Yeah, Jamo, I think, could be featured other times here in the show. Slop's been a guy that you go to. Not a tight end. I know you're a big tight end guy since like 86 or so. Yeah.

Thoughts on Jamo here? Well, that was my pick was it's going to do 60 plus yards for 280 uh so kind of stole my thunder a little bit but i'm kind of glad that i'm able to alpha him because he only said 40 but i'm saying 60 here's the thing with with him is i i'm dead serious like i do like the 40 don't get me wrong that that is probably the the way but i've been kind of noticing that i i think that if he gets 40 he's getting like 70 like one of those type things. I think he's going to get a long one. I'm telling you, I've said it before probably five or six times on the show

in weeks in a row, but he's going to take a slant like way longer than he should, like one of those kind of things. So he has to do this. No, in my defense, Evan, we did because we were taking 40-plus. We got them twice in a row. I think there was once we didn't, but there was another time where he had like a 69-yard game, I think, against the Cowboys, something like that, like close to 70.

I think he's 60-plus at plus 280. If you're down on him at all, all you need to do is hit this and it'll probably get you back, what, 2.8 units. So I'll take it. Yeah, it's a banger. It's not the same guy I get picked. Two people's pick is the same guy. I mean, I think that's just – this is our first ever collab play.

You know, we were both in the lab last night. We were getting no sleep late in the lab and decided to collab. So I think we should make a tweet thread about it and maybe discuss it. Because, I mean, I've been too. I mean, all you have to do is we should be martingaling Jameson Williams' alts. I feel like that's how you do it. If we lose everything you lost, just double it, and eventually you're going to win your money back.

He's going to catch one one day. And I think it's this time. I think that the Bucs have not seen an NFL defense in like three weeks now because it was the Eagles last week who did not look like good at all. And then the Panthers the week before. And if you watch them, that's a train wreck like that often. So they haven't seen a pass. Like they're going to be inside. Like what the hell is going on?

Like these are NFL receivers just running by their corners. And also too, Devonta Smith, everybody knew where the ball was going. He still caught one deep down, like down the center of the field. Remember that play? So like it's – they're ripe. Like he's going to get one. I'm telling you, he's going to get one. I just believe it.

I think it's the week. I mean, he was set to be featured in my spicy section. I actually have an extra spicy layer to it today. So you have 90 yards plus 750. I have the inversely correlated parlay of under two and a half balls. Oh. Yeah. Yeah.

Because he's only caught one and two in the last three weeks. Oh. Yeah. Yeah. Because he's only – what, has he caught more than two in like the last three weeks or so? Yeah. Under 2.5, 60-plus is plus 2250 on FanDuel. He's not a possession guy. Not a possession guy. Yeah. Not a possession guy. Yeah.

So we'll come back to it because I have an extra layer that I think Connor might might be interested to you know we're the playoffs i want to make the spicy real spicy right we're talking like you know the whatever the highest school field units for whatever the current hot pepper is that's what we're doing in the spicy section today we are going like you know we're going off the charts so uh so Slop, was that your official play? That was my first one. But I got two more. Jeff's already given away in the chat my other one. Okay. I'm still going.

I'm still going. All right. I got a few that are somewhat correlated, essentially. You can't parlay them all because of the way that they are. But want to find ways to like beat into this narrative of how i think some of these things are going to go in the first game of the weekend um and there are different iterations that are all somewhat the same now i love what we're seeing from this texas defense right now we talked about it at length on our preview show on Wednesday. They got basically everyone healthy, and there's some continuity now in the back half especially.

They're doing a tremendous job at disguising what they're doing in the secondary pre- and post-snap. I think they're going to confuse Lamar here, and it's going to lead to some props that we're going to take advantage of. So a couple ways to do it. I think most rushing yards in the game is very interesting lamar is plus 290 on fanduel to have the most rushing yards in this game um i'm not super worried about the other competition like singletary is getting a nice workload i don't think he's like scares me

too much but his prop is like 61 lamar's not that far off so for lamar to be three to one i don't feel great about like that difference connor already played an under on gus edwards that i absolutely love i thought it makes a ton of sense too like the texas run d has been really strong i'm just straight up lining up trying to run against them i don't really think like justice hill is going to cook or do anything like that so lamar again it's 290 on on fanduel shout out to fanduel it's like plus 185 on draft kings so again fanduel best in the market here uh but a couple other parts of it too is that lamar's average time to throw when he's clean like 2.6 seconds it's like pretty fast

um when he's pressured 4.18 highest in the league and it makes sense a little bit right when? When you think about it, he's an insane athlete, buys time with his legs, he can extend plays, and his average depth of target is nearly double. So when he extends plays, he takes shots deep. But also, it leads to a ton of scrambles, and he leads the league in scrambles when pressured. And I think because the Texans are going to do a good job at causing some, like, just a little bit of pause for Lamar. I think we're going to have a little bit more panic.

Lamar scrambles here, a little bit more tuck and run than normal. We also have the like rushing quarterback in the playoffs mechanism in place that we've talked about last couple of weeks here. I think there's going to be a time or two where he doesn't run and maybe he forces the ball into coverage. So Lamar to lead the game in rushing plus 290. Longest rush over 15 and a half is minus 122 on FanDuel.

He's done that the last three games here. Over nine and a half rushing attempts. Best on FanDuel as well, minus 122. And he's plus 112 to throw a pick. So you can't parlay these at all. But I think that they're all somewhat correlated in terms of what I expect to happen in the game when the Ravens have the ball.

Those are some, you know, again, there's four bets in one. They're all somewhat the same. So Connor, any thoughts there that kind of pick up from the handicap we touched on on Wednesday in terms of how we think that game's going to go defensively? Yeah, no, I love it. I have done some parlays with that game where that, I mean,. Yeah, no, I love it. I have done some parlays

with that game where that, I mean, I guess I'll just touch on it now because I think the Texans can win. I think that they can cover a 10. I mean, I, I mean, it's a super contrarian take. Again, we're getting literally one of the most liquid markets in sports telling me that I'm wrong and that the Ravens should be 10 point favorites, but fuck them. You know, I mean, we're going to, we're going to win and the Texans are going to win outright here because this Ravens run defense is not that good. Their pass defense is good, but they're missing their top cornerback and Marlon Humphrey, CJ Stroud, awesome against zone. They play a ton of zone. And the other side of the ball, that Texans defense, they're not very good, but they do random stuff that confused Joe Flacco. And, you know, all you

gotta do is create a couple of turnovers. Like that's all it takes. And the guy like Lamar, you know, we've seen him drop the ball in previous situations as a, you know, number one seed in a spot where he had to play catch up. I mean, if they go up at all, like I think that the Texans are very live. Um, Jeff's chiming in here. That's right. Connor, fuck him. Yeah. Hell yeah. Jeff, let's get them. Uh, so yeah, I don't know. I think that parlays revolving around the Texans keeping it close, maybe not even winning, just like take a plus 7.5, take a plus 3.5, something like that, and then like a Lamar pick or like Lamar rushing, Gus Edwards unders,

like all of those I've made parlays with. It's bad because I go to the gym and just like sit on the treadmill on my phone and bet. And so like my bet slips after the gym. It's just like, I mean, it's a disaster. Like I'm like literally. It still does count. That's what it's been great for my health and horrible.

Mental sweat too. Right. So yeah, that's, that's my take there. I don't know. I think it's kind of, kind of spicy, but a little bit fun. Where are you at in this one, Slop? I like Lamar throwing a pick. If, if I was in charge, you would be able to parlay those.

There would be no reason why you should not be able to parlay that. The Baltimore weather is not bad. Hang on, hang on, hang on. We got some wind. What do you guys think about that? Not a lot, though. It's like 14 miles an hour. I think we're good.

The reason that's important is because i think stroud goes 250 easily and at and duel right now it's like plus 118 like that i don't i mean i don't know i think that the ravens will be able to score on the texans i don't think it's going to be one of these one-sided games where you know one team can't really move the ball so stroud will or should have to throw it, right? I mean, so 50 for him. That guy, that guy's awesome. Like he's unbelievable. Like he is awesome. He is no joke.

I think it's going to go down as probably one of the worst misses ever by the Panthers by taking Young in front of him because like that, this guy, he's a difference maker. The Texans are in the playoffs right now, and Connor's talking about them beating the ones – you know what I'm saying? No, but think about it back in August. What was your thought of the Texans? You didn't think about them. So he's legit.

And like I said, 250 plus 118, that's not crazy at all, dude. I mean, they shouldn't be giving us plus 118 for that. So thank you, FanDuel. Yeah, again, shout out FanDuel. Yeah. I mean, not even that they took Young, but what they had to give up to make that move to get – made the decision that that's the guy.

It's like, oh, man. And then obviously you suck so bad that you end up in the top spot again and you can't even can't even take that pick uh really really rough time for uh the panthers fans but yeah yeah i mean i think that game is going to be spicy you know i'm i'm with connor on the texan side for sure especially nine and a half i think is is way too many points but wanted to find props that kind of fit that too there's one more i was going to talk about at the end but i'll talk about it now it's also i can't parlay it but um there are multiple options on the board for a sack um for the texans we'll just go with the soon-to-be

defensive rookie of the year who's the best pass rusher on the texans is will anderson jr on fan duel plus 132 to record a sack. That counts as a half sack. DraftKings also has a similar price. I think it's plus 124 over a quarter sack. So FanDuel's got the best number there. But six pressures last week against Flacco. Playing time's going up a little bit since he's got back and healthy. Like I said, I think they're going to confuse him. He's going to hold the ball a little bit more, and Will Anderson Jr. gets home at plus money to get a sack there. So it's basically five plays around one thought of a game and how it goes, unfortunately.

Again, I tried to parlay, pick with a sack. Can't do it, unfortunately. But they all work, and they're all like plus money. So go get them. Honestly, though, Ryan, we need this for every game. We got to realize realize dude like this is coming to an end very fast like no so like you gotta have a lot of action on all four of these games because dude it's slow going from here on out so i was considering betting cj stroud

rushing over again but like i i bet it last week. And I mean, they just absolutely took a dump on the Browns. Like literally a guy was open within two seconds, every play. So we never had to scramble. And the one time we did have to scramble, it was for like two yards because it was, you know, right at the goal line. My issue is that like, I don't know, I kind of think that he's going to be able to find plenty of passing lanes again, if he needs to, which is again, a hot take, but you know, it's not leading me to bet the rushing over. So I don't know, maybe I think that he's going to be able to find plenty of passing lanes again if he needs to which is again a hot take but you know it's not leading me to bet the rushing over so I don't know maybe I'll regret it and he'll have like a 10-yard run in the first play and I'll be like that's what we needed last week but I don't know it's something I'm struggling with so I had

the same thought with Jordan Love I'm like I want to go back to Jordan Love's attempts because you know the game that game got out of hand so fast There was no shot in the middle of the second quarter. He's not running the football at all. It's not how that game – we thought that game was going to go. But, yeah, I think they don't have as much success protecting him in this game. And, yeah, so over two and a half attempts. I didn't even dig in and see the prices, but I'm sure it's plus money and out there again. All right.

Spicy section, Connor. I don't know what we got left. I know you gave a little bit of spice there, but I know you have limited plays this week. I don't know what we got left. I know you gave a little bit of spice there, but I know it's, you know, you have limited plays this week. I don't know what you got left or what you want to do here, but floor is yours.

Yeah. A couple of them. So we talked about that first game with like the lions and the bucks a little bit, and kind of just what I think is going to happen with both teams passing a lot here. And I don't think that there's a couple of different ways to play it. So you can play on fan duel Baker, Baker 325 plus, Goff 325 plus.

David Montgomery's rushing under, Rashad White's rushing under, and that's 46 to 1. I mean, just very correlated. You know, like neither team can run both games pass. I believe both of them already hit that in their last game against each other, or at least it was close. And then if you want to go to ESPN bet, I posted this in our discord,

but I don't, I don't think that they're properly pricing the correlation on the volume props, right? So at ESPN bet, you can parlay past attempts and receptions. So I parlayed Baker 38 past temps, Evans over six and a half receptions and Rashad white five plus receptions.

Because again, the lions get up, the bucks are passing them all a bunch. Um, I mean, all of those are correlated and you're talking 17 to one. So I think that all of those are pretty solid. Um, right there. And then one of my favorites, two that I'm going to be round robinning again, round Robbins of the week went over four over five last week, which totally sucked because me Cole Hardman was like a gimme. I mean, my God, it was, we had Mecole Hardman at 40 plus yards. I mean, he had 130 million air yards and couldn't catch a single fucking one for 50 yards.

I mean, what a, what a joke. He might be worse than MBS, which is sad because I gave him a hard time, but I like Isaiah Likely alts and Jamison William alts. If you can round Robin, those, big fan of those. More Jamo. Just as Jamo, it's got to be the cover art today. I don't know if it's probably too late, but yeah. All right, Slop, what do we got?

We got any spice? We got any other alts that are left? I know Jeff's trying to- Just normal level of spice, but off three plus touchdowns at FanDuel plus 250 kind of feels like the move I mean all right so for one the Buccaneers are very stingy against the run nobody gave up fewer rushing touchdowns the only issue is the Rams were kind of in that boat too last week and the Lions were able to get two in against them.

So, you know, that could happen. But like I said, I don't think the Buccaneers have seen an NFL defense or NFL offense in weeks now. So there is that. Price is right here, plus 250. I mean, Brock Purdy did this against them. CJ Stroud threw five against them. I mean, they're capable of just getting rocked. And I don't know. CJ Stroud threw five against them. I mean, they're capable of just getting rocked.

And I don't know. I think the Lions are going to roll into the NFC Championship game. I think they're going to hang 30-plus, and three just doesn't feel like that much. So, at plus 250, I mean, that feels right. I love that question, Ryan. Yeah, why not us? Why not i want one more why are we stopping i mean i guess if purdy through three and cj through five then the logical step would be a four four bagger hang on it's almost there very easy to navigate, too. Plus 880 for four. Yeah.

Apparently you had a salad this week, though, and you're basically vegan. I mean, are you even legally allowed to bet four-plus touchdowns? I was going to do a salad. I almost did one, but that ended up being pasta that night. So technically I didn't do it. I mean, I almost did. I had the salad here, but I couldn't do it. It was bowling night, and we were going to go drinking after. it's like that's the bad idea that you only have you can't drink on a stomach

when you had a salad i think that's not that ain't gonna work dude like i mean that so you're gonna be drunk in 0.5 seconds like you know two beers and you're gonna be hey i thought ahead i thought ahead i made it but yeah i almost did have a salad. I'm going to try and lose some weight, man. I need like 10 pounds, like nothing crazy. But like I go up the stairs and I'm like gassed. And I'm like, this is bad. Like this is, this is about like breathing heavy. I was like, man your weight loss against a company. And, uh, like you can literally like, so you take a picture of you on the scale, multiple pictures, you verify it and you can bet whatever you want to bet on it. And there's like a multiplier of how much you want to wait, you want to lose versus how much time, uh, and you can like literally bet on it. I almost did this. So like a little bit ago, I decided not to, but I seriously considered it because it sounds like a, I love gamifying like everything possible. I mean, this sounds sick, right?

Yeah, no, that's awesome. That would've been great in the pandemic. That would've been awesome. You could bet on other people's weight losses. Like that would've been great. That's what I mean.

If I can bet on other people, then I'll do it. Oh my God. But no, yeah. So I don't know. So yeah. So anyways,

I did not have to, I, I, I started to though, the thought was i might do it next week one of those days what's the downside of being able to get drunk off of just two beers it sounds super efficient to me right isn't that the plan no because then you can't hang out and watch games without like like i don't know you want to keep like drinking

you don't want to like just like have like a sip like one ounce like every 20 minutes like imagine two beers over the course of a game is i mean you're you're not even able to like drink it like you're just like slurping like little tiny like things you know or like you end up having like five you don't have like two you end up having like six and then now you're like black yeah like light beer just because you had nothing it's. That's a mess. That's a good point, Tom. I'll pick you up. You had a couple Miller Lights. Can't walk. Whoa.

Sounds like a cheap, fun way for me. I got to take a break, have some water, maybe a salad, maybe bring another beer. Yeah, grab a beer. I think you kind of defeat the purpose of the salad when you eat like five salads. You know what I mean? It's like 2,000 calories of salad.

Yeah, just salad, but you just cover it in like bacon bits and like ranch dressing. Yeah, yeah. I don't think that's really what you're going to do. I hate yolks. Yeah. I don't think that's it. You can't get tired if you drink a two liter, man. I want to keep the Jammo section rolling here.

I mentioned it earlier a little bit, the Jammo specific play, under two-and-a-half receptions, 60-plus receiving yards, plus 2250 on FanDuel. Now here's where we get a little bit wild. You have to go to Draft for this because they um they have all of it and they let you well they let you do it but they don't really let you do it honor is going to be interested in this because i know we already pushed out some trey palmer thoughts um and maybe it's moved the trey palmer stuff a little bit because now you can take the same game

trey palmer under one and a half receptions it's a little tricky you know because two and a half receptions. It's a little tricky, you know, because we have two and a half was, was available earlier. So under, under one and a half receptions, cause this guy's been breaking big plays. He did it last week. I know cash some big tickets for Connor doing this 40 plus receiving yards. And you do the same for jammo. Cause they won't let you do anything more than 40. So we got four legs.

We got Palmer under one and a half, we got palmer under one and a half 40 plus jammo under two and a half 40 plus ten dollars to win 15k plus 150 000 to one now find folks at draft kings let me bet seven cents on this okay seven cents that's 105 bucks on seven cents so you know they're gonna limit you they're not gonna let you put the ten dollars down but ten to win 15 wait wait wait all right all right so go back what what can i do this at fanduel yeah you can yeah so the palmer one is tough like uh yeah you can do it on fanduel i think too right i did the pal Palmer one a bunch.

There was an element of it that was different. Maybe it was the – Palmer under one and a half receptions? Yep. And then you have to get over on his yards. Yeah. And then 40-plus on his yards? I'm doing this right now.

So we hit this slop. You were gone last week, but we talked about this. Trey Palmer under – Yeah, under two and a half receptions and and 40 plus and 50 plus yards i it was 20 to 1 and 40 to 1 and both of them hit it was like i've had like oh like i don't know 2500 bucks somewhere on a 40 bet basically total it was yeah you missed out that's what happens when you go to Aruba, bro. I know. I know. I messed up. I messed up. Yeah, so this is like 86,000 to one. Yeah. 10 gets me.

Don't you do it? Yeah, 10 gets me eight grand. There you go. And probably better on FanDuel. So you can reduce Palmer to 25 plus on FanDuel. You can reduce Palmer to 25-plus on FanDuel, and you can get 25 to win 15 grand on J-Mo under 2.5, Jamison 50-plus, Palmer under 1.5, 25-plus. So all you need is a 125-yard catch from Trey Palmer.

I just need one 40-yard catch now. So Palmer can only get me a 40-yard catch. He's got it. He did it last week. So... I have one 40-yard catch now, so Palmary can only give me a 40-yard catch. He's got it. He did it last week. So that's the same game, Spice, that I think is, you know, hey, like you said, this is going away, people, right? You're not going to miss that $10.

You sure as hell will miss it if it hits, you know? I'm like mad I went to Aruba it's like the best place on earth too yeah this is a fun one I know Connor got some spice on it under two and a half on Palmer they don't have the courage to post David Moore because I would eat that up for sure the OG David Moore

would love to make that play. But yeah, they don't have the courage to take that on. I was trying to find other ones. So basically what happened, so Palmer was released again at two and a half receptions, which it was like massively juiced. So that doesn't matter when you're taking like the non-correlated stuff. It still boosts the odds like crazy. So I got that again this week and posted in Discord.

And I combined it with like just a bunch of shit, like everything. Literally just was taking that under. Baker Mayfield, 325 plus. That under. And then Jaden Reed, 7. Texas Moneyline. Yeah, Texas Moneyline. This is a good one.

Here we go. Palmer under 2.5. Palmer, 40 plus yards. Baker, 325 plus. Texans, minus 6.5. And then Jaden Reed, 7 plus. 10 to win $32,000. I mean,

why not? Right. You know, it's when, when, when you see me in Aruba, so good. Yeah.

They're only one and a half. I like the two and a half. That way I got two chances. Right. What do you guys think about Christian Watson's though? Like this week, I think that could be another one. That's fun i mean he's he's still rotating still not playing a ton of volume but like a deep threat guy i've bet his before in one as well i think that could be a fun

one we did the opposite uh the i think the only time i've won on these was the the opposite on on jayden reed over receptions under on yards um which is i think viable too where he caught like i think six for 52 or whatever so yes i think playing around with a few of these i mean i i think mike evans is always in play for these as well with just the nature of how he wins um i prefer him i prefer a five and a half on the receptions if i can get an under so four and a half is pretty low. But especially in a spot where I already played over on attempts for Baker. But again, I played over on attempts and not over on completions for a reason too because Baker can be massively inefficient at times and does take some deep shots.

So yeah, I think there's a few ways to play around with these for sure. For sure. What do we think about Amin Ra nine receptions and under 91 yards 15 to 1 yeah i mean that's plugged it in just to see what it was yeah i mean nine for 88 i mean that's not that crazy watson um under two and a half over 28 and a half it's 500 i mean that's that's great i'd rather have the 40 plus though yeah we'll pop that sucker in there what's that it's 500. That's great. That's not ridiculous. I'd rather have the 40-plus, though. Yeah, well, pop that sucker in there.

What's that? Let's do it. We got to hang on to getting there. Yeah. Let's get real spicy, too. Let's do this. Plus 1,000. Now let's try 40 yards.

He falls for 45 yards. Let's try the other side, though. Let's bring it back with either big splash plays from Debo or big splash plays from Ayuk. under four and a half receptions over whatever 80 yards or whatever you think um yeah what do you think debo's like uh 80 i would say i'd go iuk iuk okay i'm scared of debo because i don't know those little short routes you know what i mean but i you want seems under four and a half and then what do we got for yards we throw him in with watson i'd say we probably have to go 70 yards yeah 70 or 80 probably right for four catches i mean he can do it but yeah that's still i think yeah that's like 11 000 almost 12 000 i'd say get rid of i'd say go to that go to another game maybe do a jmo two and a half 40 oh my god you guys just ruined my brain

these are so fun i'm gonna have like a million like man where why do i have all these bets out and it's like i don't have that much money out it's like oh i'm gonna look at my pick and be like dude i could win three million dollars today? I have a bunch of reverse correlation receiver parlays, like way too many. Hey, it's our last chance, man, because next week is Championship Sunday, right? So that's two games, and then the next week's

the Super Bowl. That's it. This is it. The last time you can really just get stupid. Yeah, I like it. I think this Green Bay-San Fran game has some of them in there i think getting some different iterations mixing in some of the different receivers uh there's some there's some something there there uh lots of ones set up perfect just because wicks is healthy reed's healthy musgrave they can you tell they want to play the other tight end,

that Kraft kid. And I'm missing him. Bo Mellon's been playing well. Bo Mellon's been playing well. And he's coming back from a hand stream. Maybe ease him in. I don't know. I'm not a doctor, but maybe you do that.

I mean, you can talk yourself into that. So he catches two balls. He catches one ball for 35 yards, and he's all set yeah like it i like it that's one all right yeah it's going away it's going away people okay and you know in a couple weeks you're going to be clamoring for uh for some of these and i'll be responsible but have some fun live a little bit so uh all right Connor, where do you get left? Anything else on the board? Anything else you want to talk about?

Yeah, nothing official. I guess one that I'm struggling with, and I'm curious to hear your guys' thoughts. So last week we saw John Meche out-snap and out-run way more routes than Robert Woods, but their props are the same. So John Meche's at 25 yards. Robert Woods at like 22. Um, I don't know. Is it just like too thin because these guys suck. Also Nico Collins over five and a half receptions is coming down right

now. It's like minus one 45 was like minus one 80 or something like that earlier was six and a half even at one point. I mean, I don't know't know i feel like minus 130 might be a buy point on the over there like i don't know it's just like all this texans wide receiver stuff i find fascinating i mean do you guys like you know noonan you have a take on this at all like about the rotation there do you think it's in terms of like nico specifically do you think that that's like weather related because i know we have the total drop like three points um since open but like i don't know, man. Maybe force feed Iniko and he's been so good.

I'm not super worried about Brandon Stevens shutting him down or anything like that. So in terms of the secondary pieces, I don't know. I don't have any hot takes or any preference. But I mean, Robert Woods is just a little bit dusty at this point so met you's got a little bit of a at least juice in him i think yeah i was debating on under on woods but it's only 22 so like i think you'd find slop like in the bathroom throwing up if i took that on the show that's tough to watch man yeah yeah no nothing go for it we absolutely hammer under uh tackle prop last week three and a half so like even though i felt so good about it it's still three and a half so yeah it's tough i got

two tackles so we were fine but like it's just you know anytime that he's on the field you're just like son of a bitch don't you don't even get near the play but yeah hey what you do i'm trying to roll in my ways pile and the score is going to give him a tackle you know what i mean like yeah noonan you have another tackle under right another banger this week i got my phone ready to go so i'm uh i'm pumped for this week i i will say for those of you who are not understanding noonan's tackle overs are awesome they're great they hit at a good rate newton's tackle unders are like 80 in the last two years so like i mean just saying you know be responsible but they're really really strong yeah they typically have been pretty strong so uh oh it moved a little bit we're still gonna play it we're still gonna play it i'm just gonna update the uh actual number here um still playable but we're gonna push this uh it. We're still going to play it. I'm just going to update the actual number here.

Still playable, but we're going to push this. Slop, I can get back to you. Is there anything else that you have in your third play? Just Baker, 300-plus passing yards, plus 225. Let's get his game. Like, he looks like an actual quarterback. I mean, I don't know what you guys think of him. Last week or so, he's got zip on the ball. I mean, he's kind of legit.

He's done this in, wait, one, two, three, four, five, three of the last five games. One game where he didn't, he went 280 against Jacksonville. The other game was against the Panthers, which, you know, that did stink. But at the same time, they defend the pass, so I'll give them a break. Plus, they're not Detroit. Detroit, I same time, they defend the pass, so I'll give them a break. Plus, they're not Detroit. Detroit, I mean, they give up the pass yards. It's their job to everybody. Whoever you are, you can throw on them.

It's chuck and duck time. I think Detroit scores all over them. Now Tampa Bay is probably going to throw more than they want to. They've got enough weapons. It's not just Evans and Godwin. I mean, the Brown kid obviously does something. Our boy, Trey Palmer,

front of the show, Kate Otten was getting involved. Like, I mean, so he's got dudes, the kid out of the backfield. I 300 feels right. And it's plus two 25 at fan.

I mean, that's a, it's a hefty price for the kind of game that I expect. You know what I mean? Like this isn't like your dad's 300 yard passing game. You know what I mean? Like this isn't like your dad's 300-yard passing game. You know what I mean? This is like today's football. I don't know.

I played over on attempts, like I said, 34 and a half on Baker. So, yeah, I think he's going to chuck for sure. Brian, that's a great question. Bring it up. I think that Tampa can stop the run. I really do. I think they're going to be able to kind of keep them in check. Like, not, you know, nothing –

I just don't think TikTok is in play here for Detroit. Like, they're not just going to sit there and just pound. Like, I don't think so. Yeah, the Bucs are number one in – Also, Timo puts these bombs. Yeah. You know? That's true. Yeah don't think so. Yeah. The Bucks are number one. Yeah. You know, that's true.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They're number one in run DVOA over the last five weeks. Vita Bay, since Vita Bay returned there, I mean, they're all,

they've been awesome. Like top five success rate, their whole season metrics are, you know, not that great from the run defense perspective, but they've been playing really, really well as of late. They've been playing easier opponents, but I still think that there's, know we saw i mean we saw them last

week they you know dominated the eagles offensive line for a lot of the game so yeah i think when that happens it's it's throw time you know what i mean like you that that coordinator in detroit is smart enough yeah you know what i mean like though i still they're gonna move the ball they'll probably move it to the air yeah i agree i think there's there'll be enough play volume here where path of least resistance i think for both teams is passing and then you know incompletion stop the clock right those things uh definitely help play volume as well so all right uh tackle sorry it's an underslop but i think it's a really good play. We are going to play. This is on DraftKings.

This is also available on MGM at the same price. These are a little bit more expensive. We're going to Detroit, and we're going to play an under on Kirby Joseph. Under four and a half, tackles and assists. He is a safety for the Lions. And this is a three-man rotation at safety. Stafford's friend. Two weeks.

What's that? Stafford's friend. Stafford's friend, yeah. Yeah. We got, like, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson came back healthy a couple weeks ago. And I was really curious how they were going to do this because, like, they got Tracy Walker there as well. Jay Gardner Johnson came back healthy a couple of weeks ago. And I was really curious how they were going to do this. Because like they got Tracy Walker there as well.

They got Brian Branch who plays like this slots corner safety hybrid role. And then they've taken a fat to Milano for who's been like, it was like a corner, but they moved him to safety. And then when they put him to safety, he's been balling out. Like he's, he won like NFC player, defensive player of the week a couple weeks ago he's been playing really well so it's like what are they going to do here and they it's a straight rotation based off of like not even like play here and there it's like this is your series with the two of you and now you rotate in and now it's the two of you it's a straight rotation we have back-to-back weeks where kirby joseph hasn't he's gone from an every down player to playing 64 of the snaps and 67 of

the snaps so like even if he gets a little bit lucky and says he you know stays on the high side and plays like 70 75 of the snaps he's still coming in under four tackles in my projection here so like 70 which again he has not done for the past two weeks he's coming in at 3.6 tackles uh in this matchup because it's also a really good spot to fade safeties against the bucks as well 19.5 percent of the tackles this season against the bucks have come from the safety position it's 26 in the league just hasn't been a spot where we've been uh targeting so yeah under a little bit you're paying a little bit of juice, but I think worth it.

It was something we kind of played in the chat last week because I thought like, hey, there's something going on here. Playing time wise, it was five and a half. He finished with two tackles last week. So under four and a half feels pretty good. I think again, he's going to have to be uber efficient in a bad matchup

to get here in top four and a half. So willing to lay minus 120 on DK to see it. So there we are. Amazing. Amazing. Don't have much to add because don't know anything about the nuances of what you just talked about, but I think it was a banger. Yeah, I got nothing

added on it. I have no idea how you figure that out. You guys haven't been digging in on a FETU tape these days? I don't even know if that's a real person. It is a real person. It's good. It's good. He'll be on the field

two-thirds of the time with his other two teammates who we don't have CJ and Carter Johnson lines, and we don't have lines for him, too, so Kirby's the one we're going to attack. Sacks already gave out a Will Anderson Jr. So that's all I got, Connor. You got a pretty decent amount of comments here.

Start in the section. We can run through some of this. Oh yeah, we got a lot of comments today. I appreciate you guys and keep firing them. I'll get to them because we got a little bit of time here. So Jeff Stenberg took his first L in a kicker play, you know, was not in my mentions. I kind of didn't really notice just because I got so used to it that it was a little bit of time here. So, uh, Jeff Stenberg took his first L in a kicker play. Uh, you know, was not in my mentions. I kind of didn't really notice just because I got so used to it that,

uh, it was a little weird, but you know, it's kind of interesting. Slop looks like one of Jeff Dunham's puppets. Scary. Nice. All right.

That's good. Um, we got more slop love slop as a personality and he knows this is why he's successful. And there you go. You know, we had a lot of, a lot of slop love in the chat right here.

Um, yeah. Good for you, man. I appreciate that.. You know, we got a lot of, a lot of slop love in the chat right here. Um, yeah. Yeah. Good for you, man. I appreciate that. Uh, Jeff saying we need a slop rating for everything.

Sportsbook burritos, four XL sweatshirts, everything. Um, give us a, give us like a burrito rating. Like, well,

you got like a fast food burrito rating. Anything like, you guys don't have it. Uh, Mexico. So Mexico, it's Aaron, uh, Tewksbury. Dude, it's the best place ever. you got like a fast food burrito rating anything like you guys don't have it uh mexico so mexico at sarah and tuxbury dude it's the best place ever we literally go every monday they do uh five dollar burritos and like they're like giant burritos or or bowls and it's like five bucks

dude and it's like in this economy i mean that's wild yeah no i'm saying every time i'm like how do you like we can't afford not to eat here you You know what I mean? Like, so it's every Monday we go to Mexico and the place is packed. Like it's pretty much every kid in town. So like the entire high school is there, but whatever, it doesn't matter. You go in, you get your bowls and burritos. It's, it's again, I would go right now, but it's burger night. So I'm not. Well, that sounds awesome.

I'm a big, uh, Poncheros guy. I don't know if you've ever been that. It's like in the mid, some States in the midwest they like have their they make their tortillas fresh and then they press them uh like like fresh for you they make them okay super good don't eat a ton of burritos but got a lot of good meat yeah so they have all the different meats you can get no i mean this is pretty much like a chipotle or whatever but like it's just a i don't know just a mom and pop i guess yeah yeah i'm a big uh have a bowl before burrito guy uh okay because that you know that works too you know you do the burritos bowls bowl first oh yeah you know then you'll get a burrito

yeah okay oh wow it's weird double slamming bro I like to get the tortilla on the side with the bowl and then you can like make your own burrito, you know, like whatever you want. Then you got a little extras left. I'll mess up my clothes. If I do that, get it all over myself.

Well, that's good. There's our little, uh, burrito, um, you know, extravaganza there.

We got, let's see here. Jeff saying matchy 50 plus receiving yards at plus two 60 slop is when you're placed, rightvaganza there. We got, let's see here. Jeff saying, Mechie, 50-plus receiving yards at plus 260. Slop is one of your plays, right? No, no. I don't mind that one, though. Like, I don't like to agree with Jeff about a lot, but, like, I'll co-sign on that.

I mean, that 260, I would see that. I mean, they're going to have to figure out something because it can't just be Nico. So, Mechie didn't look bad. 60, I would see that. I mean, they're going to have to figure out something because you can't just be Nico. Mary Rose said she played the Jameson under three receptions at 90 plus. Mary, if you let me know where there's a three and a half, would absolutely love that because then you can, I think it unlocks some of that like 70,

80, 90 kind of threshold there. So even like a juiced three and a half because I mean, two receptions like 70 yards is really, really tough. Um, let's hear big dogs was chiming in today. A bunch.

How about Amin Ra and Ayuk over since both got snubbed from the pro bowl and over passing completion, uh, golf got snubbed too. I don't personally put too much stock in them getting snuffed from the pro bowl. I think that the matchup and the kind of like everything means a little bit more. Um,

not this time of year. Yeah. Any Alvarado or yeah you know I think it probably would affect the quarterback more than a receiver though because the receiver starts to rely on like someone throwing in the ball does that make sense well at least the quarterback I mean if you want to go that narrative route at least you can talk about the guy touches the ball every play so there's that but like I don't know you you would have to if you're to go that narrative route, at least you can talk about the guy touches the ball every play. So there's that, but like, I don't know. You would have to, if you're a receiver, like your best friend would have to be the quarterback or something.

Like there'd have to be some weird shower narrative going on there. It's also a playoff game, right? Like, you know, no one's, yeah, no one's like,

are we going to force targets to so-and-so because he didn't make the pro bowl? Like it's, it's a car's point like it's either like it because the matchup is good or or you know you probably don't so yeah yeah maybe that would matter maybe in like a week 18 game on a team that doesn't make the play like that like that you would have to go down a weird like they could i'm not saying that never man i'm just saying like in this particular circumstance no like they're this is a playoff game these guys are ready to

run through a wall no matter what yeah for sure um and then he chimed in with bucks and niners cover the spread and under 51 points in san francisco green bay game three team parlay um i like the bucks is an interesting leg of plus six six. I know slop to squeeze. He likes, probably likes the lions, the niners cover the spread. I mean, it's a massive spread, but I do think that they score a ton of points.

And so that's tough for me on the under, I would lean towards San Francisco team total noon. And I think you're kind of in the same boat that way. Right? Yeah. Yeah. San Francisco team total. If you think green Bay is even somewhat live to hang there,

I think you have to like the over um just like i just don't think they're slowing down san francisco's offense like that's like a green bay cover is probably not a 24 20 game in my opinion so right green bay cover is you know you're getting like 35 31 or something like that so that's that's pushing it over just my thought of how that game goes for sure um Um, and then this is a fun one. So Bennett said going back to while with Kelsey over receiving yards, easy smash spot. I mean, they fed him last week. He still kind of looks like he needs to be eating more salads and, you know, get on the train. But, um, I mean, he's out there, he's trusted. He's still got a little bit of wiggle, you know, in a big guy kind of way, slop any, any thoughts here on Kelsey?

No. The numbers are always inflated on him. They're always too high. You know what I mean? Like, he could have it. 61 is not horrible, though. No, no. That's low.

That's very low for him. But, you know. Yeah, maybe I'll look at 61. Like, I could maybe get in there. But every time you see him, I don't even love you. It's like 70-something yards, seven and a half reception. I can't do that. I'll tell you what, I have a lot of brain power,

so I don't want to waste it on trying to figure out if the guy's going to catch eight balls this week. I feel like I'd pass and find somebody else. Yeah. Oh, man. I think just some of the injuries on the buffalo side make some of that pretty pretty appealing i don't know i wanted to i played uh pacheco over uh rush attempts because again fandu was a little off market it was like if they were 14 and a half everyone else was already

15 and a half 15 and a half were juiced in some spots uh but i think they run the ball well too so that's that makes me a little nervous on some of the passing stuff for kansas city but yeah i mean we need to get the final injury report and final status of some of those those uh bills defenders because that's that's tough i mean like longest from checo i think is interesting there's some of those things to explore too but yeah i don't i don't think kelsey especially with the linebackers being beat up i think yeah that's my kind of worry is that like I think KC can run the ball. Yeah, that's – My kind of worry is that, like, what if both teams can run the ball? Like, this game is going to be horrible to watch,

but, like, it's going to be just, like, 17-14 or something like that, or, like, 20-17. And it's going to be boring. And if you've got Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, like, you're just sitting there. You're drawing dead so early in that game. And it's the last one of the day, Sunday. It's the last one of the weekend.

So like, what is it? Start to 630 Eastern time. So you're pretty much dead in the water at like 730. You know what I mean? Like that's the bad way to go out. So watch those passing overs in that game. Yeah, totally agree. I thought about playing a Josh Allen under,

but didn't have the stomach for it just because I think that game can devolve pretty quickly. I mean, it's 227. 227. How do you go under that? But then like, all right, so I'm going to go over, and then that's what scared me off with the run games, like both of them. But Kansas City especially, it's like, this sucks.

So I'm going to wait until Sunday to make my final decision on that one. I got, you know, it's the last one of the weekend, three games ahead of it, no need to. Yep. Just wake up, you know, go to Mexico the night before, wake up, eat a burrito, and then, you know, you're feeling, you got to feel the gut, you know, wherever it's at.

Get your mind right. Like, you know, maybe. All right, let's see here. We have Noonan. If you like Lamar to lead rushing thoughts on attempts at nine at minus 103 yeah i mentioned it i mentioned over nine and a half uh i thought that was the best number that i saw at the time was fan duel minus or nine and a half minus 120 nine minus 103 is yeah i don't know what that is but yeah yeah. Yeah, where's that? That's a good question.

We got a – also, yeah, whenever you guys post stuff in the chat, just try and add prices because I think it makes it – or like location because it makes a big, big, big difference I think for us. It could be like prize picks or something like that. Who knows? But there wouldn't be a juice attached to it, so who knows? Let's see here. Do we like likely with Andrews coming back? Andrew's not coming back.

He's not going to play this week. I played Isaiah like, no, he's not going to play this week. He's, I played his over at 34 and a half. He's never had less than 40 in a game without Mark Andrews that he played the entirety of. I'm not counting the last week's game where like the starters, like kind of played a little bit here and there. I mean, he's had ran over 80% of the routes in every game, 40-plus in every game, average 58.

So I don't know. I might play some alts too. Who knows? I mean, this is – I just think it's like Texans are not great against defending the tight end either. If I like any of those guys to go off, I think that it could be a guy like Likely. Maybe the weather is a massive concern, but even then, he's not a super high ADOT guy.

He's just a beast. The weather doesn't look that bad like i just like that earlier in the week though it had like rain and like all kinds of wind like just a weird it was a weird weather game we'll say that and now it's not so uh three and a half receptions plus money, unlikely as well. I like that a lot. Catch four balls. Four balls plus 120. I like it. I thought Andrews was going to play. And I just made a parlay while we were hanging out.

It's like $10. We get almost 15 grand. But it has Beckham Jr. in it it like under receptions over 40 yards but i'd like that a lot better with andrews in that makes sense yeah oh that's really nice yeah if andrews played because then i mean beckham's only seeing two three balls yeah see slop's brain is just broken now it's like literally i'll never be the same dialing up uncorrelated parlays before reverse correlation parlays and after reverse correlation parlays that's that's how my life's gonna be broken up now you just you got 10 of them for 10 bucks each it's like a normal bet but now you got 10 different bets put them all in on the same one yeah there you go nine of them

i got jamo watson and beckham jr so i do think though that like since we have an edge and i'm trying to figure out an efficient way to do this i probably need to get a bot is to round robin these things like round robin the uncorrelated parlays because basically when you have an edge which i'm i know we do because the pricing is broken they've already admitted that like fan duels because the pricing is broken. They've already admitted that like FanDuel is like the pricing is broken on it. When you have an edge, like parlaying it around robbing it only emphasizes that further. So like, you know, even if you're only betting literally 50 cents a dollar on each one, like each like combined with like two or three different uncorrelated ones. I mean, if you hit two of them, you're literally just like, you can win one out

of every like thousand and be profitable basically.. You're definitely going to win way, way more than two out of every three and one every thousand. I don't know. Just a thought. Probably not something I'm technologically capable of, but we can do it by hand. Podsham has some very, very smart guys in the back of the house.

They don't play. Add them to the DM group and we'll get them to say, you want to make money? We can tweet about it and everything. It'll be great. We just need a pod. Let's see here.

All right. Kittle over receptions. Noonan, any Kittle thoughts? Pretty good matchup. Yeah, good matchup. I think that's where they're going to try to attack green-based defense. They're pretty poor over the middle of the field. We played over on Jonathan Owens'

tackles for the Packers and safety. It's so hard. I feel like you're playing whack-a-mole with those pass catchers there. They're all good. They're all talented. They almost all have good matchups, but the rhyme or reason as to why one pops in one week and not, it's really,

really hard. Binary props on any of these guys just not super appealing to me yeah if you go under on kittle's catches and over 53 and a half yards in that same part that's talked about it's 10 to get 106 grand so that's wow look at that you get all four of those guys just four guys that's it four guys just being dudes it's four bros being bros you're getting then yeah you got a porsche on the other side your payout yeah that's not me 106 grand i i'll take that so my only request is that when you hit the 106 grand you do not quit the show uh because you don't have to work anymore for at least a year you just got to come on you can flaunt

the ticket every single show what would happen is I would post that ticket literally every day and find a different way to talk about it that I maybe have not talked about it yet. Even if I had, maybe I'll do it. I'll run it back, and then we'll talk about it again. That would be a very fun hit. You imagine that? Oh, my God.

I cannot imagine. I mean, even hitting the palmer one last week for 20 to 1 and 40 to 1 i was like going nuts because i'd already lost two of my regular props and so i was like it saved the day i mean literally like yeah i want to hit one of those lottos just because like you're sitting there refreshing your fando just and then all of a sudden it goes from like whatever you got you know like five grand and then like 110 grand you know like jesus christ dude like that's a hell of a increase yeah no it's that would be pretty wild so we'll see i mean we'll we'll come back a little bit richer uh you know next week and we'll talk about it then let me see we got a couple more here mayfield over eight rushing yards minus 105 i

don't know i'm not really may a Mayfield guy. Newton's slopping. I'm not doing that. Yeah, he's running a little bit, but that's probably a good line. Yeah, two for 16 last week. The right play. It's not one of those that I don't really think a lot of

a handicap goes into that one. I think it just either happens or it doesn't. Yeah, that's kind of the tough part for me as well uh romeo dobbs over 35 and a half seems free someone talked me out of that i prefer jayden reed i think romeo dobbs is a good spot too but um i'm more of a jayden reed guy i played a ton of 12 personnel last week with dobbs wicks you know kind of the you know bigger outside receivers now i think they're gonna play a little more 11 as they play catch up so i mean dobbs is i don't think it's a bad look uh i just don't you know bigger outside receivers now i think they're gonna play a little more 11 as if i catch up so i mean dobbs is i don't think it's a bad look uh i just don't you know i think that reed over three and a half receptions was a little bit of a better look there um guys there yeah

green bay like although if all those guys were playing the receivers are healthy i mean wicks reed watson dobbs the craft kid i mean my guy musgrave I get up 25 plus I think he does it but like it's almost like if you believe in like a few of those guys just take love you know no that's that's a good point a lot of guys yeah yeah let's look I mean like so you had Dobbs 76 of the routes Watson 38 last week Reed 52. now some of these are like you know they were in blowout time and you know wick 62 he's at 79 the week before melton 33 like they're just heath you know malik heath is out there for 29 of the routes like yeah it just is it's hard it's hard they're using a lot of dudes. Yeah. Yeah.

Very messy. Let's hear Texans over 16 and a half points thoughts. Yeah. I mean, I bet it. I don't know. 16, that seems low.

Right side of the key. Yeah, for sure. Any love for pretty most passing yards this weekend. I don't know what the number is, but if you get the, if he gets a volume, definitely,

but I just don't know if they're going to get the volume. Like if, you know, like if, if it's 30 to 10 and after the first half, I wouldn't be that surprised, to be honest. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. But again, we don't have a number. So it makes it hard. But yeah, I don't even think he's going to get the volume.

It's all about efficiency and big plays really for, for him. I mean, you might not even have the most in that game, especially if that game gets wonky quickly. I mean, love's going to be chucking. Yep. Yeah, totally agree. Let's hear Shane Bolin. Hey lads, not sure if you mentioned yet thoughts on Musgraves line of 20 and a half slop. You're a tight end guy, right? Didn't you, did you bet on craft or Musgrave? You bet on one of those guys. All right. So here's my take.

I think he's going to slowly creep back to kind of his old role. It's slow going. The first game back, I think it was 19% of the snaps. Second game back, it was 27% of the snaps. So that wasn't the increase I thought we were going to see. I kind of got lucky because he caught like a 35-yarder last week or whatever that touchdown was, 38, whatever it was. But I don't know.

I think that the 49ers can be had. They gave up 88 receptions on the season to tight ends. The team that gave up the most gave up 107. So that's not that far off. I mean, it's not the same, but still it's not that far off. It's not like these guys just lock it down. McBride went 10 for a hundred on them. Likely Christmas night was like three for 50 something.

So I don't know. I think Musgrave's going to play more. I don't know how much more, but I mean, dude, we're talking about such a low bar, like 20 and a half. That's a catch.

Yeah. Really low. And, and, and you're in a, in the environment that they're going to be in i think trailing so that's the one if i'm taking one i would take the guy that's that's the guy definitely and i did take him so i got 25 plus yeah nice i like that yeah you saw the crafts uh like routes run fall last week now musgrave didn't run many

either um but like again they didn't have to in the second half in particular but yeah i do think you're going to have that kind of come back together and there's a good shot that it's you know that it's a musgrave moving forward so yeah i looked at reception numbers for both of them too i think craft is like a normal two and a half and then you're like massively juiced over uh on the one and a half for musgrave so yeah i think i think you're probably i would like to go two and a half like you'll kind of see before kickoff maybe they go to two and a half plus one then you jump in yeah i like it for sure so we got edmunds questionable over on white rushing attempts and receiving uh he practiced a limited and uh looks like todd bulls said that they're gonna you know like he's trending in the right direction so kind of avoid there i

think receptions would be my look there personally let's see here we got builder had minus 103 on nine lamar nine carries moved to 10 minus 103 sorry guys so it looks like that i'm rush attempts for lamar that's you know kind of dead lamar carries nine and a half plus one Oh five at MGM. Tim Broderick. Not bad. I mean, yeah, you're into that.

Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I like it. Let's see here. Cool. I think we're running out of questions here. Bill's my suit up because someone sacrificed themselves to the pit.

They've been undefeated every time someone has, I don't know if you guys heard about this, but they have like a, like a giant pit where the new stadium or something's being built. And like every week, one of their fans is just like jumped into it. And like all of them have to go to the hospital basically after, but every week they've done it. Someone is someone is like they want. So, I mean, Bill's fans are just absolutely batshit crazy. I mean, that is awesome. But I mean, I'm kind of on the Chiefs. I'm not a big superstition guy, but that is hilarious.

Let's see here. It makes me think of Andy from Parks and Rec. He fell in the pit, wrote a song about it. Yeah. That's good. Let's see here. Slop says, thanks, 20F, for after receiving yards the low bar quez walkins disagrees yes it's in a tight end quez was a tight end he would got it yeah that's for sure

fuck 100 facts hey he got the targets jeff it's just he didn't convert those to yards that's what i said about me cole hardman that's another guy I will not be betting on this week. It's tough. I'm not going to bet on Quez either then. Good. Yeah. We need to hold strong in solidarity. I won't bet on Quez again this season.

Jeff misses. He gets one L on the kicker prop, and then he doesn't give us any this week? He's just – you scared, Jeff? He quit. Jeff ain't scared. Jeff's at a strip club right now, probably. Tinker props. Watch.

We're not sharing any with the chat this week, Jeff. It's 5 in the afternoon, right? Yeah, he's at the strip club. It's 5 o'clock somewhere, including wherever Jeff lives. So that's awesome. All right, cool. I think that's all the questions we got for today. A little bit longer, but it was great. we appreciate the questions he's given one he's

given one i think oh okay all right come on jeff wait uh oh we got brian saying to lamar jackson most rushing yards at 12 plus 1200 for the divisional round it's just really tough with mccaffrey i think like i hate betting against him like yeah, yeah. Yeah. I would have to run for a hundred yards. David might be onto something. I don't, I don't totally think that, I mean, for those prices,

that's not that ridiculous. Baker, most passing yards, plus four 70 or love same bet. Plus six 50. Him. Twins Watkins. I don't know how you could say he's the worst receiver in the NFL.

That's a, that's tough to quantify. Just saying, if we're being accurate and honest here, I don't know that you can actually quantify that. It's, I got my list right here. So it's number one,

number two is Devante Parker. Number three is me. Cole Hardman for Sky more. I mean, like the fact that the chiefs have three of the four worst is pretty impressive, but they do. I mean, they don't get open. They don't catch the ball.

They run the wrong routes. They just suck. I don't know how else to explain it. Yep. I think that's perfect. Here we go. We got Jeff's kicker prop to wrap up the show. Fairburn over one and a half field goals, a plus 135.

Okay. Okay. I can see that. Jeff won't hide from me. Like, if that guy goes out there and doesn't kick any field, he won't hide. He'll come back in with another one. That's why I like Jeff. He knows how the game's played. Yep.

Love it. When you lose one, all you gotta do is come back and win one. That's it. Now you're back. That's how it works. You one all you have to do is come back and win one That's it now you're back That's how it works you're all the way back Shout out again PFF caught some strays this week With PFF grades You want to look at the Receiving grades

Your worst receivers in the NFL The season Rondell Moore Allen Robinson, not named Quedge Watkins, Van Jefferson, and then MVS. So MVS, fourth. Our boy Trey Palmer. Trey Palmer's in here, too.

So, yeah. Yeah, but he won his money, so it doesn't count. Yeah, no, it's okay. We don't need him to be good. You want to... Those are the guys you want to bet on the reverse correlation. I'll be honest with you. Those all sound like guys. I'd be like, yeah, it's okay. We don't need him to be good. Those are the guys you want to bet on the reverse correlation. I'll be honest with you. Those all sound like guys that I'd be like, yeah, I'll take that. Under three catches for 35 yards.

These guys are kind of good for this, actually. Next year, Ryan, we might need the list because that's probably how you're going to find your reverse correlation guys. Just a good way to start, yeah. This is a deep one. Yeah. See, shout out P start. Yeah. This is a deep one. Yeah. See, shout out PFF. Yeah.

Nice system. Helping the gambling community with reverse correlation parlays. That's exactly why they created their company. 100%. The only reason. Literally, this is it. Yeah, literally. You know what?

We got to help these gamblers. Slop, Odds Jam. What do people need to know? Go to Odds Jam right now. The greatest pricing tools in the history of pricing tools ever. Stay aligned. We'll find them. Arbitrage, we'll find them.

It's unbelievable. Just go there. Free two weeks. Use promo code SLOP. Hurry up. You really only got two weeks left to use it. If you want to take advantage, you don't want to be using that for I mean you can use it for Super Bowl week

All year long dude College basketball great time to use it Baseball it was Surprisingly not bad I didn't know what to expect just because it's only one sport But there was plenty of stuff to bet Okay Nice check that out

Promo code slop And again you want to get access to uh the discord and all the things we're doing at four for four go to the plans page four for four dot com slash plans no discount code needed it's already on the site 1999 to the end of the season uh pretty good time there so i appreciate you guys hanging out with us as always thumbs up on your way out subscribe to the channel and come back uh on wednesday for our uh two game preview and we'll be here again on friday with uh again like let's probably build some of these uncorrelated props live because we're not gonna have a lot to do maybe save some taxes for people

it's gonna be fantastic so for sloppy connor i'm ryan we'll see y' next time. Thanks everybody. Yeah.