Move The Line - Expert NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Get ready for Divisional Round with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined by my friends Connor Allen, John Hyslop. Back for the divisional round to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is through player props. We will continue to be live here 3 p.m.. Eastern, on the 444Bets YouTube channel. Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. YouTube is the best way to do this. So if you guys are in the chat right now, jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite prop look is for the divisional round. Do you want our thoughts on the play? Do you want to contribute to the parlay at the end? Your participation is greatly appreciated. Connor, what's going on? Yeah, not a whole lot. Six and two last week. All of my unders hit.

Both of my favorite overs did not hit, which kind of sucked. You know, the Jane Daniels one stung pretty bad because we were both on that. 13 runs, somehow only 36 yards. Pretty incredible there. But, you know, the unders came through, which is good. You know, I can always bank on some shitty players going under their number, so it's always good. Slap of the Dream in the Dream, buddy?

You know it. I think I had a good weekend last weekend, but I don't remember. I'm pretty sure. I know Cooper kind of hurt me a little bit, but other than that, I think it was a pretty good weekend. It was a lot of fun. Austin Eckler, I don't know if you saw that game. Did you see the play where they called it a rush?

But, like, he threw it to him. But it was a lateral. It was a lateral. I went back. I got friends that are very mad about that because they had four-plus receptions. But, like, if you look at the angle, it was a lateral. It was a lateral. It was.

There's angles that you could watch it that it didn't look like one, but if you just watch the yard line, it was. Man, I'm sorry, guys, but it happens. You did catch three balls, though, Connor. Yeah, that tends to be the angle they go off of. It's one of those two which it's weird because, you know, like how close do they really look at that because it really doesn't matter do you know what i mean like it's not like it's a

penalty it doesn't affect like it doesn't really affect the play yeah i mean this is my existence right someone who's constantly sweating tackle props um and how like you know casual just the casual the scorekeeper probably is with who they give an assist to or not and you know i'm over here like dying to see if my guy gets credit for that play or not and they they're on to the next play so i'm always fascinated by the thought of like how in the weeds they get what the process is um because you'll see sometimes like games will quickly announce this guy was in on the tackle and the camera will pay into that guy before the next snap. And it's like,

okay, well, was there an assist? Like, yeah. I'm daring. I don't even become a scorekeeper. Darren,

I've touched on this. Like I spent a lot of time in the LinkedIn streets trying to find out who these people are trying to get, trying to get understanding of their process. Yeah. I mean, I do remember you are the – I do remember you saying at the beginning of the year,

that's how you spent your summer. You were tracking down – that is absolute psycho behavior, and that's awesome. We need that in this world. We need it. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't have done – exactly, digging for the edge.

I wouldn't have done anything super crazy. Like, one of us is in a draft this weekend that's involved drafting whether or not people are going to live for 2025. Yeah, I might have been willing to do maybe some seedy things to get an understanding of, hey, maybe can we bump up the assist rates? But, Connor, you're the one drafting people to stay alive in 2025. Yeah, Celebrity Death Draft 2025 coming up. Shout out to Steve for organizing that. You just draft celebrities who, you know, might pass away

and you get 100 points minus their age. So you can't get many points for drafting geriatrics. You got to get lucky with some people. So just to be clear, not rooting for anyone to die. But I like to draft people who are like shitty people or just like a little bit crazy. If you have any suggestions in the chat, feel free to drop them because I need to build this draft board out. I got a couple of people. And it's also great because we were in a bar usually.

So we go out and like someone has a big draft board and people are like always coming up to us. Like, what the fuck is going on here? And we're like, well, we're drafting celebrities to die. And the reaction's always 50, 50. It's either like, Holy shit, that's crazy. And that's awesome. Or it's like, what the fuck is wrong with you people? Like, it's literally like, like it's, it's one of those. Um, and I fully expect that reaction. Even some of my friends are kind of like, dude, this is pretty messed up. Um,

but you know, it's all good fun. I will say last year, the girl who won works for black rock. If you're not familiar, black rock owns the entire world. So yeah, I,

I mean, I might push for like a collusion or like her to get like booted, honestly. Cause she had some good ones. Yeah. It's scary. If somebody gets like too many of those right then you gotta start one like wait a minute do you know what i mean like i don't know

get on that person's good side who um who are you taking for are you allowed to say because like aren't yeah like i think i'm gonna go with luigi mangione um i don't have no what pick i am yet but yeah amanda binds went high up there when she got the face tats. That was pretty scary. Ric Flair is certainly getting close. Mel Gibson. I mean, there's some good recommendations here. Diddy Noonan brought up before the show, I think is,

I mean, that's like a first top three pick lock, I think. Define celebrity. It has to be a person. Could it be like a first top three pick lock, I think. Define celebrity. It has to be a person. Could it be like a celebrity animal? So, no, so it has to be a person. It can also be vetoed because celebrity is pretty like. Very loose. Yeah, loose.

So like if it's vetoed and somebody's like, I don't know who that is, like you can vote on like if over half people are like, that's not a real celebrity, then it's not a real celebrity. Um, cause obviously like we know a lot of football players, some of the other people in the league are like, no,

like random old pop stars that were like, this is not like a real person. So what do you call this? You just said the league. So you call it like the death league. You know what I mean? I mean, I refer to it as yeah.

Celebrity death draft, but, um, I don't know. I mean, it's, I just have in my google sheets i just have draft because i'm too scared to like someone's gonna see that and also just be like like a real normal person you know like i think the listeners of the show can handle it at this point um because they're used to our shenanigans this is tough man like first of all

imagine i just kind of want to have to come on the show Next year to say like hey by the way Can't do the show Noonan passed but I You know got you know first in my Death league He's not that old There's a trophy

Oh my god I picked my Friend he was like whoa like yeah you get double for like murder like suicide is there certain like causes of death that are like better than others or what yeah less for it just because you don't want to incentivize someone going out there and killing somebody you know what i mean because like what I mean? People like to win. You know what I mean? Winners win. You got to keep the stakes low too because it can't be too high

where someone would be incentivized to go out of their way. I think we're at a record high participation this year. We're like 15 people, including women. My wife is doing this. A couple of bunch of girls. We actually have more women than men in the league. That makes sense.

Pretty awesome. So it's like a $ dollar buy-in i mean winner takes 1500 bucks so yeah it's not enough to like kill someone but definitely enough to be like you know spend some time researching here um and we have some good comments here in the chat kim jong-un could be a good sleeper pick only listed 41 multiple health issues so the issue with kim jong-un and um putin is that i don't think that we will know if they die like they don't yeah in that bernie situation right like they'll they'll be like uh you know they clone tyrone you know kind of vibe there like it's it's it's gonna be a facade like it'll be someone else that looks like him so um granted did i tune into the wrong show we can get back on track here sorry a

bit off the rails but it's uh yeah all good one. All right, so first I'm going to go P. Diddy. No, I'm kidding. P. Diddy, under half six months, lived in 2025. Do you have to – yeah, if you name cause of death, you should get more – I don't know. Yeah, my buddy does this. I'm going to be honest with you. This guy is an absolute psychopath, and I've thought about it before,

but he just gets way too excited whenever someone dies and it's just like i don't know so good luck with the death i hope it goes well um for you i don't know for who but i don't know how that could go well for anyone else but you but yeah i mean i i mentioned also too i think uh that jaylene giselle maxwell whatever like his his girl um prison death like she knows so much stuff people don't people don't want her chirping she's not yeah uh she should be and she's not that old i mean well she's old enough but i'm getting old dude yeah she was like 60s right yeah yeah i mean that's that's still 37 points 35 points yeah that's yeah it's a good death good kill but yeah yeah yeah all right football all right

let's do football again jump in the chat let's know you know you got some suggestions for connor here help him get his dashboard post it up we'll figure it out. Jump in there. Let us know. So as always, we appreciate it. A lot of you are going to watch or listen. We appreciate that support. Less than half of you are subscribing to the channel or the podcast. Change that, please. Move the line two episodes a week. This is obviously Prop Drop and, you know, Death Pool,

whatever you want to call today. You know, we had Ed Fang on, on Wednesday size and totals, really good episode there as well. Check that out. Again, four for four bets in the YouTube channel, move the line wherever you listen to the podcast, four for four.com slash plans. Super cheap right now, guys, less than 20 bucks to bet props with us through the rest of the Superbowl. I know the season is coming up, but again, you can jump in,

get in the discord, get a sense of what it's like to hang with us, supporting us. We would really appreciate it. All right, Connor football. What was yours? First bet for the divisional round. No stale bread, live lines. People can bet on this right now.

What do you got? All right, let's rock on a go with Lamar Jackson over 53 and a half rushing yards. Shout out to Stu is also on this monotone here. I'm also playing alts over 80 plus, 100 plus. Lamar, 54 rushing yards earlier this season against the Bills, despite minimal dropbacks. I mean, they absolutely killed the Bills last time.

In a game that's expected to be much closer this week, I mean, the Ravens are favored, but only by one. Bills actually opened his favorites. I mean, he's turned up his rushing massively in the playoffs, averaged 86 per yards per game, an average of 86 median of 81 rushing yards per game in the playoffs. Even last week,

dominant winning against Pittsburgh ran the ball 15 times for 81 yards. Um, Zay flowers still kind of dicey. It looks like he might be, might be in, I don't know. Even if he does play, I think we're going to see a lot more heavy personnel, ton of runs from Lamar and Henry.

Again, I think the upside here is just massive. If we talked about with Daniels last week, I mean, unless the Bills are specifically focused on stopping Lamar, which I don't think is really like, I mean, it's possible, but you're giving up a lot if you're really focusing on that and not focusing on Derek Henry, who ran for 200 yards against them last time. So I think we're going to see a lot of Lamar here. Love the floor price of 53 and a half.

I'm taking some alts as well. Yeah, absolutely love it. Patrick was quick. I thought I was quick. I got 40 and a half at open. 45 and a half is an absolute beautiful number. But I still, I agree with Connor. I still think 54 or 53 and a and an upper still in play here for sure

slap any thoughts on lamar rushing um yeah i mean i like it kind of like literally stole all my thunder for my next pick but i do like it yeah all right well let's keep the thunder rolling what do you got uh lamar jackson 15 plus rush, plus 900 at Caesars. Dude, look, guys, the haters are going to say, like, I think he only ran the ball 8.2 times a game this season, right? Career low. But he picked his spots, okay? And the Ravens kick the crap out of teams at times. So, like, why would he be running in those games?

I don't think that's going to happen this time. He just ran 15 times last week. We also could get bailed out with kneel downs if they win. But there were other times where he ran the ball 15 times this season. Not a lot, but again, it's plus 900 in a game where they're going to need his legs. Like push is going to come to shove and he's going to take off. 15's not that many rushes. And again, we're talking lamar

jackson here plus 900 15 rushes if you want to be soft and weak which there's nothing wrong with that i'm not going to say that there's something wrong with that you can go 13 plus for plus 400 it's all deadly no one likes to be soft and in this chat here connor um i can think i know the chiefs game in the first week of the season i think he had 16 uh there's a spot for sure where he's he's uh gone pretty aggressive um did you give a look connor at all to uh to attempts or many thoughts to add there i like them all i just think that like his explosive ability like i mean there's sometimes where he's had like you know four or five attempts like eight yards and then he just like busts like a 50 yarder uh and it's just i i would hate to miss out on that so i think you can play it anyway i think he's gonna run a ton

um but i think he also has explosive upside so yeah i like it so you guys didn't even talk about that you guys just didn't no we were in the thunderdome this morning and i gave out something a little bit more um i don't even know the word for it soft and weak uh over it was 10 plus at plus 105 that's a joke and then i started thinking about it more and i was like i don't know i knew he liked him though because he you had the rushing yards this morning didn't you yep? Yep. Yeah, I played on the Thunderdome. I did just straight to 80-plus. I didn't even mess around with all the regular line. On prop drop, I like to give all of them.

So I give the baseline 80-plus and 100-plus. So we're climbing that ladder all the way up. We're going to wake up in a new Bugatti next Monday. Maybe two. Maybe two. Why not? I like it. I just don't think there's

a scenario where GameScript can rough that one up at all. I think it just stays in play all the way around. All right. Shout out to the show sponsor. I'm trying to play my bet that's coming up here before I push it out and share with everyone. But, of course, we cannot take a full stake.

Shout out to DraftKings, our show sponsor. So having to deviate and get it down on a couple of different books, didn't think this would be the case. But, you know, here we are. Not even a lot of money, DraftKings. I mean, what are we doing here? But, yeah, this one's this one's i can i i've sworn these off a little bit guys we got to come back we got to come back to picking our spots and i think this is the right spot to pick i'm going to take awesome neckler over 23 and a half

receiving yards uh shout out to the chat i think someone at the very top uh i think jason mentioned it uh in the open i think it's just a really good spot think jason mentioned it uh in the open like it's just a really good spot for for uh eckler to be involved we just didn't see early season this was kind of the handicap last week too for jane daniels just the early season schedule kind of kept them out of training game scripts uh and they kind of blew everyone out and down the stretch when they you know things tightened up a little bit we didn't really have austin eckler in the lineup because he was out with a concussion for like six weeks so they're not a ton of examples of the commanders being in trailing game scripts but week one

commanders lost by 17 of the bucks eckler four catches 54 yards week six to the ravens four for 47 week 11 they lost uh comfortably to the eagles eight for 89 uh last week even in a neutral script you know 26 yards we just talked about the top very close to being 37 yards right like you know that could have happened uh for sure so we have a situation here running backs don't often target um pass catching backs as much that was kind of the case with brian robinson uh when when Eckler was out. But Eckler has a top 10 first read target rate for all running backs,

over 40 targets in the season. Lions 29th in DVOA against running backs in the season. So four to six targets should be more than enough to get it done. Connor, any thoughts on Eckler? Running back, receiving yards over. Yeah, the week after I said that I was never playing them again, I played one and he ended up with zero targets and zero yards. So I am once again back on my island of never playing them. But this does make sense.

The logic makes sense. I can't tell you why you're wrong. I just can't ever win those bets. So I'm done playing them. I hate him. But this one is a nice slap. Any thoughts? I like it. I had him in my parlay that had no chance of losing,

so he's in there. I think I had three receptions. I got to go back and look. That's a great question from Darren in the chat, and I apologize for not clarifying. It's a full game line. Full game line. Yeah.

So it seems like maybe a half. And, you know, slop likes the alts. Let And, you know, Slop likes the alts. Let's see what we got for Eckler receiving alts. What do we got? We can maybe think about starting to build our parlay out here. You know, maybe a 40-plus. This could be one of those spots. 40-plus plus 265 on Caesars.

50-plus, 490. Yeah90 yeah but 40 plus is nice um 40 is nothing 35 plus plus 185 on the spn not bad too so yeah it's nothing like it all right keep it moving all right connor what do you got next buddy yeah we got some good questions in the chat by but we can circle back to those, I think, after our official plays. Next play here, I'm going to go with DeAndre Hopkins over 29.5 yards. This is 30.5 on DK, 31.5 Caesars, 29.5 at MGM, 32.5 is fine at FanDuel. So interesting nugget here. You know, Silva turned me on to this, but I think that this was pretty solid. Part of the Deandre Hopkins trade involved the clause where the Titans would get a fourth

round pick. If Hopkins played over 60% of the snaps in the regular season, instead of a fifth rounder. I mean, Hopkins literally, if you look at his game log, it's literally like 45 to 60% every game, uh, in terms of snap rate. So in my mind, based on the comments that they said all season, which is basically like Patrick Holmes was like, this guy just has a natural feel. We worked together all the time. Like Andy Reed was like, this guy's awesome. Like he, you know, could come in and play a lot right away yet. They never really ramped up his usage despite like it's, you know, the backups being

basically like Justin Watson and Juju Smith Schuster and things like that. Um, I w I would be pretty surprised. We don't see Hopkins approach, you know, 70% ish a snap share here. 23% target per outrun. So even without an increased role, I mean, he played nine games, 40% of the snaps, 32 yards and seven out of nine games, including 37 yards. It's the Texans itself. So, I mean, we're getting, we're getting value on this. If he doesn't see an increase and if he does see an increase, I mean, we're getting, we're getting value on this if he doesn't see an increase. And if he does see an increase, I'm playing 50 plus well at plus two 35, again, 50 plus yards for a guy that, uh, I mean, I think is their most well-rounded receiver.

I think Kelsey sees more. I know they involved Hollywood Brown more, but, uh, you know, again, I just think Hopkins is probably the better, better look here at 29 receiving yards. I mean, this is like, to me, this is crazy. So super low. I know it's a little bit square, but I like it. Kind of like every pass catcher in that game. It makes me a little bit nervous. I think the trend with Xavier Worthy is nice.

Hollywood Brown has been pretty impactful when he plays. I agree. I know it's an early in the week take for you too, Connor. Patrick has in the chat too. I think Kelsey goes off in this game a thousand percent i played around and looked at some kelsey stuff like i think 52 and a half is probably too light like five and a half catches is a decent price so yeah maybe just a nice mahomes hey everybody's talking about josh everyone's talking about lamar um we're over here about to try to go for a three-peat um i don't know it's uh it's definitely

an interesting spot for sure so yeah low threshold for sure slop any thoughts on uh d hop oh i used to take him 90 plus back in the day so i forgot about that you know so if i like my 90 i still like him at 30 yeah remember the week that we thought that hopkins like usage would spike massively and then we're playing like all the alts and they just never, they just never decided to scale them up. Like they're like, we're going to keep them at 60% borderline inexplicably, but maybe not.

Maybe it wasn't an explicit. Maybe they're saving them. They're saving him. They're, they're trying to save that pick. They're trying to get that fifth round pick instead of a fourth round pick, which I mean,

when you're whatever, 15, 16 and one or whatever the chiefs are, it's not that surprising if you don't really need that's pretty cheap to be honest but hey i understand cheap it's some shit that bill belichick would do that is some shit that bill belichick would do 100 or just save them for the uh postseason when you actually need them true and even you know again probably not 100 snap rate't know, 65. That'd be a big difference. 20% more snaps, that'd be huge. That's a huge difference, for sure.

Yeah, I mean, I think the offensive line, some of the movements they had there, I think just in general, it's going to be a spot for Chiefs to cook a little bit. So, all right, Slav, what you got, bud? Yeah, you imagine if Hopkins and Nick Chubb would have done what we said they should do. We have Gatsby's and Monke monkeys, and we're so rich, dude. But anyways, we'll think about that later. Justice Hill, I hate to go back to the same game, but this is the only one that I really got a feel for

that I just know what's going to happen. Justice Hill is going for 30-plus receiving yards. That is plus 155 at Ballybet right now so if you got uh Bett Rivers or Sugarhouse or any of those are that that line's gonna be there they all use can be but dude that there is no chance this guy doesn't get 30 plus yards in this game receiving not rushing receiving when they throw the ball it's gonna be little short stuff. You know how the Ravens operate. But with Zay Flowers, he's not going to be around, I don't think, if he does play.

He's not 100%. The Bills gave up more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL this season. So they're primed for that. When they met this year earlier, he went six for 78 against these guys. I mean, I'm not really expecting the same thing, but to be honest with you, why not? It's not like they let him do it. You know what I mean?

He just went and took it from him. He can do it again. We only need 30 yards. Again, plus 155. That just seems way too easy. Now that I'm thinking about it, one of my first bets of the week was over two and a half receptions.

So I'm apparently trying to get aggressive in the running back receptions in the receiving end of the market this week. Yeah, but the usage is nice. Again, neutral game scripts for them. He's been heavily involved. So, Connor, any thoughts

on Slop's play here? I can just run back exactly what I said a couple know, a couple of minutes ago, if we want. Um, no, I think it makes sense. Um, it, it, it lines up. I think we see a lot of Lamar runs, a lot of, a lot of justice Hill. I think there's actually a scenario here where, I mean, if they fall behind, like Derek Henry has gotten scripted out of multiple games this season. I mean, it's, it's probably going to happen at some point. I don't know if it's this game specifically, but it will happen.

So being on Justice Hill can hit naturally, and obviously his upside is massive if Henry gets scripted out. Yeah. Love it. Patrick, me too same problem that's okay you getting some we got the fuzzy Newton over here

back to the future Newton where he just disappears you might want to bet him on your list Connor your draft board for tonight dude I'm telling you this is where it starts. It's like the fade. It just starts fading into black, and then this is the last we see of Noonan. Like the Sopranos kind of.

It's fading to black. Can you hear me? I can hear you and I can see you. You're getting better. One's overrated. All right, I'm going to play Saquon Barkley, longest rush, over 18.5 yards. Me and Monotone Stew are on this one, tag team effort.

Pretty straightforward. Saquon Barkley's really good. That could be the end of the handicap, although I kind of went in the weeds a little bit. Looked at what happened there the first time that they played. The Rams in the first matchup they played week 12 if you haven't seen that this week say kwan went for like 255 a pretty decent day uh the rams used a stack box eight or more defenders in the box on a third of the snaps

on the season they were one of the lowest uh 19.3 so they went out of their way to sell out to stop Saquon. It did not work. Then when you look at some of the underlying stats, yards before contact, yards after contact, in where Saquon is versus where the Rams are, pretty much bottom six, seven, and all those metrics. It just is a spot that's right for a big one. So even if they do a better job and they keep him under 200 rushing yards, I still think we see him pop a big one. So even if they do a better job and they keep him under 200 rushing yards, I still think we see him pop a big one here. Stu and I both agree. This probably should be 20 and a half.

Also getting 18 and a half on draft Kings on fan duel, pretty much everywhere, except ESPN is out to 19 and a half. You can find 18 and a half everywhere else. So I love Saquon again. We just, we just need one Connor. Any thoughts on a Barkley with the longest?

We discussed it a little bit yesterday. I think that kind of our, our process there on like, well, you know, the Rams are definitely going to try and stop him, but they also tried last time and they stacked the box a bunch and Saquon Barkley is so dynamic. And he goes, all of its line is so good that like stacking the boxes, like not always a great thing, especially if you send pressure on the wrong side or if one of the linebackers doesn't fill. If there's not someone in every gap, or sometimes Saquon can just cut something back and pop it, like he did twice against the Rams last time.

I think they're going to try and stop him. I wholeheartedly believe that, and I think that he might have a lot more runs that are like two or three yards this week. But all it takes is one, and that's all that matters. That's all we need slop yeah no i've been looking for ways to play him um his standard line was literally at like 111 yards so i think this is probably the best way to get something in on him because i'll be honest with

you i even thought about playing him over 111 yards like i think he goes off yeah i think i'm in kind of the same boat with gibbs too like i find like i want to find ways to play jameer gibbs but i don't we don't really know how the split's gonna go was a question here in the chat too like carter any thoughts on david montgomery i know you've been flirting with you know i think you started flirting early in the week with unders on Montgomery, and then I think you started flirting with overs on Montgomery the more you thought about it. So we're going to stand out on a Friday afternoon. It's real tough because, yeah, you want to fade a guy where he supposedly had basically a season-ending injury three weeks ago, and now he's full participant in practice. And then, I mean, Dan Campbell is like,

he doesn't really ease guys in that much from what I remember about running back usage. Maybe a little bit, but even 80%, 90% Montgomery in this matchup that we outlined on the Wednesday show, it's a really strong matchup. Lions, one of the best teams, are running under center. Commanders, one of the worst teams, are defending the run under center.

You look at the games that they've played against good running teams. They allowed over 200 rushing yards to Philly both times. They allowed 180 to Baltimore, 190 something to Arizona. And some of that was rushing running quarterbacks, but I mean, not all of it. And especially Philly wasn't specifically,

it was mostly just Saquon. So for me, something we talked about offline here, Detroit over 147 and a half rushing yards on Caesars is a great play. It would be an official play for me if you could bet it anywhere other than Caesars. But if you go to the game and then click rushing and then scroll all the way down, 147 and a half yards. I mean, I think Jameer Gibbs could legit do 100 plus himself easily. This includes like an end around to Jamison Williams is possible 147 and a half yards. Like, I mean, I think Jameer Gibbs could legit do a hundred plus himself easily.

Um, this includes like an end around to Jamison Williams is possible or like, you know, any of that, like these are all like, there's so much in play here and the lines are basically eclipsed 147 and a half yards, like half the season anyways, and like neutral matchups.

So they said this line is like a median for them. Um, but this is obviously a plus metric for them. So I like that over there a lot. Uh, I don't know who's going to get it. If Montgomery is full go somehow, I mean,

he could have another 70, 80 yards in addition to Gibbs, whatever. So could get hot real fast. It's on ESPN too. Is it for that? There are no alts that I could see. Unfortunately,

I would, would love to do that. Yeah. Like 170, like 200. I would, I would, I would bet everything just all the way up you know

yeah it might be elsewhere i just haven't found found it everywhere i just was looking for some other random stuff and found it on espn today but um there's also one 147 minus 115 on espn for folks i'm with connor we touched on it uh on the the wednesday show like it matches up really well against against washington and washington's given up 175 five times this year so uh like connor said it's 147 and a half median line we don't even need to get close to 175 to to cook on that so yeah it's a great it's a great look uh yeah i, I don't know what to make of the Montgomery stuff. Just probably involved a little bit. I don't know.

Could be a little like you ready to go. I don't know. No idea. The, the way I played it. Okay. So we did this. We talked about this too, in the discord a little bit, Montgomery first quarter rushing alts.

So they offer that on fan duel. You got to go to same game parlay, not rushing same game par, and just scroll all the way down. It takes forever. Get there. David Montgomery, like 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 rushing yards in the first quarter because the entire season, he normally started the first drive and play the entire first drive. And so if they're going to run the ball a lot and he's playing the first drive, he'll definitely have 15 rushing yards uh and he could play with all it's now if we're wrong then obviously we lose but the price is so depressed because his actual price is only 47 and a half like there have been times where he's literally

played the first drive gibbs has played two more drives and like montgomery's not touched the ball the entire first half uh after the first drive so um i don't know could It could be interesting. Oh, Fandul now offering team total rushing yards in PA at least. All right. We didn't get nothing here in Massachusetts. I mean, I'm going to try and find this now. Where did you find this? This is posted in the chat. Yeah, let's see.

Rushing props. Oh, here we go. Oh, they have alts too. Oh, my God. All right. Oh, they have alts? Oh, my God. All right. Oh, they have alts? Oh, my God. 150 minus 120.

175 plus plus 220. Lions 200 plus. You got to go to rushing, and then it's like right under Dave Montgomery alts rushing yards. I mean, I'm going all the way up, so this is glorious. Game specials rushing. That's all I got. Under Montgomery.

Yeah, just pick Robbie. Right before first quarter. Detroit Lions total rushing yards. It's under Montgomery's alt rushing yards. She's like the last person. Oh, jeez. 250, 21- person. Oh, jeez. 250, 21-1. Ooh, baby.

I don't think that they've done that this season, but no better time than now, you know? 225. Per day goal, they're going to score 55 points, or they might break the actual scoring record in this game. That's, I think, the line that we got. Yes, it's yes it's going to be uh dolphins broncos from a couple years ago 70 to 20 or whatever what is even is the most points scored in the game in the playoffs like probably around 50 something in the playoffs right yeah um trying to think i mean i haven't

been around for all of it but uh I've been around for a good amount. I remember a whooping of the Jags put on the Dolphins a long time ago. I think they got in the 50s. But, yeah, 175 plus, plus 220. I mean, yeah, that's a good play. That's crazy. I'm trying to figure out how to bet my house. I don't have an option.

Yeah, it's not in the app, I promise you. Yeah, we got to get that on there. It's a different app. Yeah, Niners did score, I believe, 55 points in the Super Bowl against the Broncos. So we've got some. Yeah, we've got some big ones. The Broncos were winning that game at one point.

I think it was a 7-0. I'm pretty sure. Like, they were ahead. I remember that. Yeah. Here you go. Most points in a Super – Most points in a playoff game 73 points by the Chicago Bears

In 1940 They won 17 73-0 Super Bowl era Yeah You guys were alive then right I

Super Bowl era I was in I was so young I don't remember it I do remember the Broncos You know The 89 Super Bowl here I remember going to get a pizza You you know, at halftime.

And, yeah, 55 to 10. So, Connor wasn't even alive. Nope. Niners, 55 to 10. That's crazy. Yeah, nothing. Oh, 1995, Eagles scored 58. And then 2000, Jags, 62 points.

That's the one. Jags, that was the one I was talking about, 62 points. That's the one. Jags, that was the one I was talking about, 62. Yeah, they whooped. They retired Shula on that one. That was Dan Marino's last game, I think. Yeah. Wasn't it? Something weird like that. It was one of those two.

Yeah, it was either Shula or Marino. That's a tough way to go out. Yeah. Nice career. But, yeah, I like it. The Lions bucked 78 last week on a defense that was known to stop the run. Yeah. Sorry, I'm still on that.

Yeah, they're going to be able to run for sure there's i like this good finds good fine chat good job so fandles got it all right um yeah i'm with you connor that's a it's a good look all right what do we uh we got some parlay friendlyfriendly stuff here. I think Gibbs should be in it somehow because I think he's going to go. I mean, Gibbs like combo yards too. He just gives you, I think, more outs because his ceiling with his involvement in the receiving game has been pretty wild too. But, yeah, however you want to start.

Do you want to build FanDuel, Caesars, Connor? Did you already start? I loaded up Caesars because that's always easier for me but um i got hopkins lamar justice hill eckler um what did i miss any from what we talked about i think there was the longest one from you and then slop uh your first one was lamar too so there's like overlap right that's good yeah gib. Gibbs is tough. Basically need to go up to 150 all-purpose yards to get to plus 300. His plus 120 plus combined is only plus 103. That's crazy, huh?

Yeah, like alts on that are real tough, but I mean, we can. It's just so good. Yeah. Well, I mean, I don't know how much Kelsey or how much Chiefs we want. We already have D-hop. But what do we need? You probably need four touchdowns from Mahomes to make it worth it. That's not fun to bet. No, let's hear it.

Yeah, passing touchdowns. Mahomes, all passing touchdowns. Three is plus 210. I don't think that's that bad. Three is plus 210? That's better than I thought. Okay. Slop, you into that?

Mahomes, three passing touchdowns? Yeah, that's better than i thought okay slop you into that i mean that sounds yeah that's kind of crazy that's not bad look at all actually yeah um i mean it's my homes yeah i thought it was gonna be like plus 130 or me too 25 or something yeah okay you want to do a little more uh attempts you got that in there? I put rushing, but we can do attempts. Whatever you want. What do you think? Both is going to hurt us. Yeah, you're right.

Yeah, let's see. Well, let's see what it does. No, it... Well, let's see here. Hold on. Five legs super pro lay. No, I mean, it makes it better, actually, somehow. 15 attempts and 80 rushing yards.

What do you want to do? Let's do less than 50. 13 attempts? Yeah, we can do 13 attempts. All right. Well, 13 actually doesn't move the number at all. 15, though, doubles it, basically. Really?

I don't understand how that works. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense at all. That makes no sense. Literally, I'm typing it in. I feel like I'm in a mirage right now. What is going on? They won't let me parlay anything with that Lions 220. That stinks.

Come on, Vandal. Sticks. Darren, good point here too. Don't sleep on Mixon receiving. Spags will have McDuffie on Nico and safeties will help with coverage. They'll use Mixon on the back of the ton. Bobby Slove told me so. Coach Speak Index also had a great note on that too about them using Mixon more in the quick game like and just like quick game in general they

said they need to get the ball quick um i guess we could do i mean that leads me to texans chiefs again i like cj stroud like past attempts over like alts i don't know if you can include that um you definitely bet it um yeah no you can't bet oh well you can bet all completion but i don't want to do that um all right so then then what was the one we were talking about here? Mixing, receiving? I feel like he's kind of beat up, which sucks, but I don't know. His receiving lines are pretty low,

but it's another goddamn running back receiving prop. We already have Justin Beckler. Wouldn't it be wild if that's the way we hit? We just lean all in on receiving Running back receiving props That would be Hilarious Just isolate Gibbs, Gibbs 60 receiving yards Eckler

Kyron gets involved We can do mixed in 30 receiving yards Plus 245 That's not terrible That's not terrible Sl That's not terrible. Slop, you got any other bangers you're looking at? Right now we're at like 10 to win 10 grand, I think, only. What about – well, Dayami Brown,

but the cat is kind of out of the bag on all of his numbers. Yeah. I wanted three catches for plus money and it's like 160 minus once you know what i mean it's like it's not even remotely close to where i was hoping to get something like that and then he's not really a yards guy but i think he's kind of taking over like not taking over but like he's just another mouth that uh we thought that Zaccheaus guy. Yeah. He's kind of stealing from him. He is. I don't know.

No, I mean, the Justice Hill and the Lamar one, I'm very sure. Like, I'm going to be shocked if neither one of those hit. But then when it comes to the Bill side, it's difficult. I mean, you could do alan 50 plus 60 plus russian yards but that was still just a kind of a look for me it wasn't something i was like hey this is it you know what i mean like one of those that i was trying to talk myself into trying to think jameson williams i definitely like him to catch a few balls but again we're not getting the we're not getting the price for ceiling outcomes you'd have to go like 100 plus which would probably help our detroit rush if we leave that in there it could be a good uncorrelated week for him too like under four and a half over on his yards

you know yeah they they've moved his number way up i've never seen it at five like that yeah that's pretty crazy Dalton Schultz but I see they don't use him the way I would think you'd want to use him against the Chiefs I think he only caught five balls last time he played he targeted eight times though so in their defense they actually did use their tight end a lot more than they had been but it looks like they don't value that position at all. Not really, yeah. Cade Snover out. I mean, it could be something. Six catches is plus 250. I think they passed the ball a ton.

I mean, they're going to have like – That's not that crazy. Plus 250? He had five last time. And I think Tank Bell was still on two feet. Yeah, he played. And Chiefs allowed what? The most receiving yards as tight ends, I think, in the league.

Oh, yeah. They're a tight end team, definitely. Yeah, six plus catches is a pretty good look. I don't think he has six catches in a single game all year, just to be clear. That's why it's good. They'll never see it coming. All right. Well, you know what? Why not?

Alright, let's see here. We're at seven legs already and we're only winning 27k. What the fuck are we doing? This is terrible. Yeah, it's tough, man. It's the playoffs, dude. There's not that many games. Alright, well, yeah, you're right.

And now we're getting good teams playing too. So it's difficult. It's like there's no defense that you can just take advantage of. Puka 200 plus? Oh, my gosh. 200 plus. That's probably where you got to go to make it worth anything, right? I mean.

Yeah, it's so high. Let's see. Let's see. We're at Puka. we're at like 85 86 yeah plus 200 is not till 120 again same like that's i mean it's ridiculous dude that is just so ridiculous um what about like i mean demarcus robinson 40 yards is not that crazy i mean it's not i looked at the marcus robinson like longest because he's when he gets a target it's like yeah way down the field yeah yeah he's out there like 90 route right like he's out there all the time yeah i don't mind that cool i added him um all right we're we're cooking 10 to 100K. Perfect. This is eight legs, 10 to 100K.

I think we're in a good spot. Nice, safe parlay. Yeah, I mean, all right, recap. We got Hopkins 60-plus. We got Mahomes three touchdowns, Mixon 30-plus receiving yards, Schultz six receptions. Lamar Jackson 80 rushing yards. Justice Hill 40 receiving yards. Is that it? it hold on i feel like i'm missing something

eckler 40 plus receiving yards i said that already and then uh demarcus robinson 40 plus receiving yards okay what else that's not that great 174 100k and 749 dollars. Good work if you can get it. It's just honest work. Oh, now it actually boosted us up. So the odds moved for us. $112,000 now. So there you go. That's good.

$312,000. Yeah. Boom. Look at that. I mean, this is beautiful. It's a work of art. I want the price to go down here. this is beautiful. It's a work of art. I don't want that. I want the price to go down here,

but, um, it's, you can't add it to the parlay. I haven't found it anywhere except drafting. So maybe the check can help out. Maybe the chat wants to get down in this and move the number a little bit. Cause right now it's a little bit juicy.

There have been only a couple of times in the last 30 years where teams have had games where they didn't punt. Both the Lions and Commanders set the record this year. They tied the record. There are three games each where they did not punt.

They're both very aggressive on fourth down. Just not a lot of punts in that game. Right now on DraftKings, their over-under on punts is six of punts in that game. Right now on DraftKings, their over-under on punts is 6.5 in the game. Minus 170. So we need, we get that down to 5.5, like plus money.

So if the chat wants to come in and bang the minus 170, we can all collectively jump in on the 5.5. I think you can find FanDuel had no punts for like 21-1 in the game. Again, just jump in on the five and a half um i think you can find fanduel had no punts to like 20 like 21 to 1 uh in the game again just uber aggressive teams love to go for it on fourth down commanders are not served by punting in this game almost at all uh the lions don't punt even they just had three

games where they didn't punt so i mean under six and a half is an absolute banger at minus 170 of course draft kings won't let you get anything down that makes 170 worthwhile but um worth a look if that pops up anywhere else this is great i went to the dk kiosk to pay the under six and a half in this game play under six and a half this game i think it makes a lot of sense to be honest yeah it's it's a really good look. That's pretty interesting. I don't know. I didn't see that.

Where do you even find this? You said it's on FanDuel? Yeah, so it's DST, so where you would go for tackles and assists. You just scroll over to punt total. Do you click on the game first or do you go to? No, just DST props in the top and then slide over you'll find punt total and then go down got it interesting i mean we're not getting six punts in this game we're not getting six yeah that's a shot

plus the lions i think are just going to play like all or nothing so it's going to be like picks or you know yeah yeah basically just picks or massive bombs the commanders have to right i mean that's so you guys think derrick henry and lamar jackson can combine for 200 yards yeah family's got some of those that are a little bit interesting yeah i got three so far herds and barkley to combine for 200 plus russian yards gibbs and jayden daniels to combine for 200 plus russian yards and derrick henry lamar jackson to combine for 200 plus russian yards yeah plus 97 40. wow Did you parlay him? Yep.

So we just need one more from the other game. I mean, we want to win something here. Two. Of course. Xavier Worthy, over 4.5 rushing yards. Yeah, it's only 50 to get 4,800 like that. I mean. Noonan, I have a question here. So there's a market on Caesars

that says total defensive tackles and total tackles in the match. Yeah. It said at 80 total tackles in the match. Like, am I doing my math wrong? Or like, do they not grade tackles on almost every play? Like, out of bounds, does it count as a tackle, right?

Or what? Yeah, I mean, sometimes yes, sometimes no. Again, the scorekeeper depends on how, like, tackles on almost every play like out of balance does it count as a tackle right or what yeah i mean sometimes yes sometimes no again the scorekeeper depends on how like influential that person is um i don't know what their like rule for assists are in that too like combined like just total tackles for the game so i can check look into it yeah i mean it's just like posting those most of the year really yeah i guess i guess if they're throwing a bunch of incomplete passes like third you know like because then there's no tackles on those plays yeah it just seems like it would require 40 or i guess what like 80 out of 120 like 40% of the plays to be like dead, basically no tackle on a play essentially, right?

Yeah. I mean, what game is that? I did Detroit, Washington. Yeah. So the Lions lead the league in tackle opportunities against in the season. So when your team's playing against the Lions, I think we're averaging like 66 and a half tackles per game. 60.

I mean, this is set at 40 just for them though. Like their, their individual line is set at 40. So I wonder if it's solos. That's what I'm saying. Like, I wonder what they,

I mean, should I call someone? Like, what do we do here? This feels like it could be a good opportunity to, well, I mean like 40 solo tackles you're saying like, yeah. So like what an assisted tackle wouldn't count or like they would just one they would just count whoever like the total sometimes they'll give two assists sometimes it'll be a

solo with a or tackle with an assist so again there's some scorekeeper element to it as well so i wonder i bet they just count total individual tackles right so like solo tackles how they what they graded as a tackle yeah interesting which is tricky yeah i can dig into it yeah look i was just like scrolling through it trying to look for more of these as we get into the playoffs like usually the Super Bowl, I'll play a couple of field goal props. I played two or three punt returner props last year, and those all won, which was wild. Ray McLeod under 15 punt return yards or something like that. Oh, my God.

It was electric. He returned one punt for like three yards. They don't let him return it. They're like, dude, just fucking sit there and catch the ball like just you know it'll be a bozo those are the best props just got to find liquidity that's the only issue you gotta find out how to get money done on it that's a challenge yeah that's i'm hoping the check can help because i know i can't get anything down on six and a half that makes it worth my while but uh be willing to bet five and a half i don don't think they're going to let me do that either,

but right now it's just drafting. So I'm going to hopefully see if maybe someone else posts the, the punt prop. Cause we're not getting seven punts in that game. I don't think we're getting six punts. We're definitely not getting seven pumps, uh, punts.

So, so good. Um, let's see here. We got a couple minutes left. If you want any like chat questions here, we got, um, Oh, here you go. Hunter thoughts on Penny Sewell, Superbowl MVP. um let's hear we got a couple minutes left if you want any like chat questions here we got um oh

here you go hunter thoughts on penny sewell super bowl mvp some say twitter sharps are discovering this gem uh shout out to grp wins for tweeting out some of the worst bets maybe i've ever seen um on his slip of like four it was like penny sewell to win mvp jaylen carter to win mvp who what were the golf ones doing i don't even know who those those guys were Sewell to win MVP. Jalen Carter to win MVP. What were the golf ones doing? I don't even know who those guys were. Zach Johnson to win the Masters. Here's what happened.

He was on vacation last week. He's watching golf and all of a sudden, Zach Johnson pops up on the screen a couple of different times, makes the birdie. He's like, I think he can win the Masters. Look at the guy the guy first of all he did win the masters in a very weird master's year weather-wise back in 2007 um but he has missed significantly more cuts uh at any event and the masters since basically um he was there our a bad rider cup captain for us last

time out um he is not making the cut at the masters in a 75 man field where 50 guys made the cut i don't think zach johnson's making the cut at the masters this year uh he uh yeah i begged him to see if if benton would let him out of that ticket, but it seems like he's stuck. That's pretty funny. Wow. Yeah. I got a parlay that pays $30K. Only $50, dude.

Fired up. What do we got? Hertz Barkley, 200-plus rushing yards. Gibbs Daniels, 200-plus rushing yards. Henry Jackson, 200-plus rushing yards. Nico Kelsey, 200-plus rushing yards. Henry, Jackson, 200-plus rushing yards. Nico, Kelsey, 200-plus receiving yards. That's not that ridiculous. I mean, it's kind of unlikely, but it's 50 to get 30K. I got a 25-odd bonus bet.

I'll probably throw on that. Where do you find these game specials for FanDuel, right? Is that what it is? Yeah, it's in the um i'd go to the receiving page though and find them do you know i'm saying receiving specials or rushing specials okay do you know what i mean because that way you can kind of sort through what you're looking for so i wouldn't do much rushing for kansas city houston but i mean the problem with that game is it's –

Nico is going to have to go off because I don't know that Kelsey, you know, what if he's not involved at all? That's a possibility. I think he probably has a resurgence. I almost played him over 52 to be honest, instead of Hopkins. I just thought that Hopkins was a little bit stronger. Yeah. But, I mean, yeah, I don't mind it.

You know what I mean? Going through the specials, they get locked in on like two people where it's like, dude, give us a bunch of dudes. But they know they're going to get bent over by somebody because there's somebody out there right now. You know what I mean? It's just waiting.

Yeah. No, for sure. Well, I'm going to bet this. Why not? Barkley, it hurts, dude. 200 yards. That's not that crazy. Barkley did it by himself last time. Yep. That's not ridiculous. And then, I mean, when you start going through it, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, that's not

that ridiculous. I mean, they get 200. I mean, that's, again, highly unlikely I mean, that's again, highly unlikely, but I think that's priced into it at plus $310,000. Gibbs and Daniels, I mean, what if Daniels takes off? What if Gibbs just

goes off? That's not out of the realm. I mean, he could drop $1.50 on you. I legit think Gibbs goes off. Yeah, he's that guy so what if what if he went 200 himself like again that's not i mean that's not that ridiculous to think i mean he hasn't done it before but why not sunday or tomorrow it seems like a good time to do it yeah it feels like it would be a good time to do it. And then Daniels, I mean, he could get to 70, 80.

It's too soon, but yeah, he probably could. Yeah, now what did he get last week? 36, 30 and a half. Yeah, so he's due. He owes us due. I promise you he owes it. He owes me for sure. And then we just get down to that last game. I mean, Nico and Kelsey, they would have to get us over it on Saturday.

But the thing is, that's the first game. They don't do it. We just go put this parlay in and just get our money back real quick. You know what I mean? So, are we at Nico, Kelsey, 200 receiving yards? Gibbs, Daniels, 200 receiving yards? Or rushing yards? 200 rushing, yep.

Hertz, Barkley, 200 rushing yards? Hertz Barkley, 200 rushing yards. That's happening. And then Henry Lamar, 200 or 250? 200, 200. I mean, we got to be safe. We want to win the match. Yeah. All right, perfect.

All right. Love it. That's not that ridiculous. 15 bucks to win nine grand. Yeah, that feels like pretty cool. It could happen. You never know.

Again, two parlays this day for the people. Yeah. This is just, you know, any of the we use them too, anything that's kind of aggregating odds and stuff like this um see jason gets it take it to a movie cost you 25 bucks 90 minutes your life only cost you 10 100 jason i tell people this all the time where they're like

dude you're not getting anything for that i'm like what are you talking about? Like, what? We're going to make money, you know? Think about all the fun we had. And then on top of that, there's a chance we got paid. Like, what are you talking about? Like, think about going to a play. If we get dragged to a play or something like that. Like, dude, that's expensive. And you got to sit there for hours.

No chance of getting your money back, 0%. You get more than your money back on a game you want to watch. How do you – who loses there? Not me. I love it. It's about reshaping your minds. That's part of it. We give you bets, but also Slop's here helping you reshape your brain,

the mental piece of betting. It's a mental piece of betting. It's a big, big part of it. Huge. Here's the thing. You don't have to get up off the mat if you never fell down. It's up to you if you want to fall down. Just get backed up. Or just open another app.

There's plenty of apps out there. There's a bunch of apps. It's not that hard. Yeah, we're still donating to Wildfire victims any winnings, percentage of winnings off of the parlay. So, happy to help. Yep. If we win, no problem.

We'll donate what is it? A percentage of our winnings. Yep, 10% of our winnings. Mm-hmm. Yep. Of what we win. So if we win zero, 10% of that. Yep.

Correct. Locked in. Yep. Guaranteed. Show you the receipts. Mm-hmm. All of them. All right, gents, anything else for the people?

That's all I got. That was a lot man yeah i got nothing i'm i'm locked and loaded feeling good i think we just won 30k or 15k that's insane just off that one just out of nowhere at the end just one we just kind of threw together plus the other 100 a we won from the caesars one yeah i. I don't know what else we can do. $3K and $4 because DraftKings let me bet $8.19 on under six and a half punts. Get those four bucks when you can, guys. Rich.

Get in there. All right. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us. We're right on the hour mark. As always always go over to youtube search high slop you can find all the great stuff that slop's doing four for four.com slash plans scoop up a betting sub like 16 bucks get in the discord come hang out with us community is fantastic crushing nba over there as well shout out to jake continuing to do that betting nfl still again continuing through the super bowl,

get in there, check us out, come hang out with us, subscribe to wherever you're taking this in before you take off for four bets in the YouTube channel, move the line wherever you listen to the podcast for Connor and slop. I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time.

Thanks everybody.