Move The Line - Expert NFL Super Bowl 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: February 9, 2024

Dive into the thrilling world of NFL Super Bowl player prop bets and explore the 2023 season's standout player prop bets. Your ultimate guide for expert insights on top selections, NFL forecasts, and betting odds, spotlighting the likes of Patrick Mahomes and other NFL players. We provide unique perspectives on the most enticing NFL player prop bets for the Super Bowl, perfect for both experienced wagerers and those new to the scene.Our goal is to elevate your betting journey with tactical wisdom and professional advice, helping you to achieve greater triumphs in your NFL Wild Card betting endeavors.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼  / sloprules  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan back with my friends to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football for the last time this season. That is through player props. We are going to continue here on the channel here. So if you're hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe to the 444Bets YouTube channel. Subscribe to the Move the Line podcast wherever you listen to podcasts joining me here as always connor allen who wrote one of the most extensive best possible uh previews of this game as he does every year i think this year's was even a little bit better check that out over on the site for free connor what's going on buddy i

appreciate that yeah not a whole lot it's like you spend like a couple of days, like slaving over all the data, you know, and looking at like all these different stats and context. And then there's like this lull where I'm just like betting on as much shit as possible because I think I have an edge and, you know, I won't know. I mean, I guess, you know, you won't know for sure either way because it's a one game sample, but, you know, we'll find out on Sunday whether or not it pans out. It almost always does. There's almost always edges in like some of these random bullshit markets. So talk about more of them later, you know, throughout the show, but, uh, love doing this show. It's super fun. It's sad that it'll be gone for the off season, but you know, I think that we're going to try and run it back next year, you know, still TBD, not a hundred percent, but we're trying

to do going to try our best. We got to lock in the big dog here, obviously joining us from Odds Jam. You can find him on Twitter, at Slop Rules. Hi, Slop. What's up, buddy? Just living the dream, man. Yeah, it was a rough week last week without the show. I was like, are we doing this? I'll get on and talk about nothing.

But, yeah, no, I'm glad to have the Super Bowl here finally. Yeah, I think it's going to be a fantastic game. I'm really excited to break it down. You want to get more football-specific game size and total stuff. Connor and myself, Sharp Clark, did our game preview show on Wednesday. That's available here on the 444Bets YouTube channel. You can find that, obviously, in the podcast feed as well. And again, we'll take a little bit of time off, maybe a week.

That's kind of what we did last year. And then Connor and I will be back in the saddles here doing shows every single week until football kicks off next year. We have free agency, coaching changes, the NFL draft. We love to get into the weeds on. So, again, subscribe to the channels. Don't miss a show. They're really hopeful that the draft betting market is a little bit more robust than uh previous years but we'll see um you know either way talking about it i think those

things are very interesting to football hardos and again if we can find a way to you know find an edge make some money off of it even better so uh hopefully the books are not quite as shy again you get over to the site four for four dot com slash plans right now discount obviously because football season's almost over though we do have again we're still nba mma and some other stuff too you just want to ride with us you want to get into the discord get all the official plays when those are pushed out here uh 999 use the uh you know just go over the site promo code win connor uh win is a promo code that they can take advantage of too if i'm not mistaken uh folks can you know go for for free check out connor's uh breakdown that i just talked about i pumped out about 4 000 words today on tackles literally breaking down every single tackle line

that is on the board here we'll get to some of those here in the show but if you want like just just be on the crapper for the weekend and just kind of scroll. That's free. 444.com. Check it out. So, all right. Again, this is a different week because the offering is massive, right? So we get into some of the off-the-board stuff. I imagine this is going to go all sorts of ways here today. But Connor and I will give you the floor first.

No stale bread, live lines, things that people can bet on now. I don't want to put you in a box you know this could be novelty props this could be cross sports whatever you want to do uh we can get to a spot where you could share stuff you've already done however we want to go this is going to be off the wall i'm sure but uh floor is yours to get us started so we're gonna have i'm gonna have two official plays that i'm releasing here one's gonna be for one full unit one's gonna be for half a unit we're gonna start with the full unit one. This is, you can find this over on bet rivers and FanDuel. Um, and you can find this specifically on FanDuel by clicking on the Superbowl tab and then scrolling right over to passing props and scroll down to other QB props. So again,

it's important to understand where to find this because this shit is everywhere. Like it is all over the place. They've done a horrible job organizing all their menus. So got to figure it, got to let you guys know where to find it. So I took my homes have a higher completion rate than Brock Purdy in this game. It's only minus one 20. We took this in the last Superbowl. And the more that I broke down the game,

the more that I thought about it, you're looking at a team here where the chiefs pass defense is awesome. They're like top five and basically every metric they're allowing just a 60% completion rate on the year. Brock Purdy, you know, obviously has a higher completion rate. The Patrick poems by like a percentage and a half on the whole season, but he's played two top five pass defenses in those games, 44 and 56% completion rate. And then now he gets the chiefs who are, you know, very much strong as well. And on the other side, my home is the last two games, 76 and 73% completion rate matching up against the Niners defense that loves to play zone, loves to only rush four and try and get pressure.

I think that leads to a lot of shorter completions where they're trying to not get beat over the top, keep the ball in front of them. And we're looking at Mahomes completing 70% of his passes against that exact matchup this year. So I think there's things working for Mahomes to have kind of a shorter eight out, a lot of completion type of game and things working against Brock Purdy, where it's more like run, run, maybe a shot crosser kind of, kind of game for the 49ers. And so I think that combination there really, you know, lends to some value here for Mahomes higher completion rate than Purdy. I already took Purdy passer rating under was my, one of my first bets of the week. And I know this is kind of doubling down but i think there are outs where maybe i'm wrong maybe you know the niners offense is just

sick and mahomes still beats him in completion rate because he's just digging his dunking his way downfield so like i think this adds extra outs here specifically as well yeah i loved i tailed the uh the passer rating one i thought that was wild but i thought your process was really good and that's and i'm like man it is definitely super bowl week we were betting on uh passer rating uh over under type stuff which is absolutely insane uh so i'll have any thoughts to to that matchup or you know again you can get the floor too with you know your prop and then game thoughts i know what connor thinks of the game but you know obviously you and i have not spoken on what you think of the game too yeah um connor's article, I mean, it was insane.

Like I read it and I couldn't even like, I just had to retweet it. I think you call it retweet still, right? Repost it. Just because I was like, I can't like transfer any of this to like here. This is what Connor said. That was very good. I think he broke down very well. I'm in the same camp.

Like I'm not a big Purdy guy this week at all. I would think that the smartest thing the 49ers could do is not let him throw the ball very many times. I mean, his underpass attempts at 31.5 earlier in the week was actually, I thought, pretty strong, even though I think that number's gone now, so it's not going to be a play or anything. But one place I would look, Debo Samuel, six-plus receptions, plus 140 at FanDuel.

I think this is the only way they can do anything. I think Iyuk is pretty much out of the equation just by – after reading Connor's article, I voted him off the island. He's done. There's no way that he's going to do anything. It's the chiefs defense. Look at their, at the numbers on the season though, only five teams in the NFL gave up fewer receptions to the receiver position. So if you want to move the ball against them,

the receiver probably isn't the way to do it, but I know Debo, his receiver, but they're going to move them around. They can do little weird things with them. They put them everywhere. It's not like he just lines up on the outside and runs routes. Like he is everywhere. He can get those little pop passes that count as receptions, bullshit screens or receptions, you know?

So I think that's the way I think he could catch seven balls. I think that is a, hang on, get you plus 235 right now at Fandle. So that's his range. That's the way. That's the way I see it going. I think Ayuk is going to be involved. He's not going to try. But I don't know.

The dude is so good at getting open. You're like ESPN's got that open score stuff and looking at tracking separation. You're over here since the dude's been in the league he gets open I'm not like dismissing anything Debo wise I think Debo can get it done too but like you know I like Legere Sneed he's a good player uh he's done some great stuff shutting down some other top tier wide receivers this season but man in terms of like others like the way that scheme is like having to account for all these other players uh yeah i think i think uh iuk is involved too but yeah i like i like where you're looking there um i'm devastated the play i was about to push out that i've been sitting on for three days that market is gone currently it just got it's

disappeared within the last like 20 minutes what um yes no no current head-to-head tackle props on fanduel um it was a pivot i have it ready to go i'm ready to push i'm ready to play just ready to actually bet it myself finally but this i'm fando to this earlier today they took i see i see it you see it is it in a different spot what do i have to do um so you gotta go click on super bowl and then scroll all the way over to dst props and i'm still seeing it i just queued up in the slip i guess what it was so you did i don't know can you not find it thought you know maybe you might have been in the game you know sometimes it's weird if like you're in the game and like there's like that's what i hate about these menus

they do such a poor job like don't make it in the game you gotta go back you gotta go back out of the game okay so going to super bowl not in the game and i go to dst props oh that that makes more sense that's so okay all right we're good we got it i want to make sure you get down on it's your prop you know it's like we can't i know i panic for a second i'm like i want to put it out and it's not even available devastated i've always been i've been wait i like you know these happen you would sandbag this thing for days so that i can give it out on the show and i want to make sure we can get we get down telling people to take the opposite and keeping the number there yeah yeah it's happened it's a few times i actually had to play you know play something the other day because uh

your friend the show anthony amico was in our group chat talking about it with a bunch of sharps market movers and i'm like i want to save that for friday's was in our group chat talking about it with a bunch of sharps marquee movers. I'm like, I want to save that for Friday's show with slop. We'll talk about it now. I had to push it out. Fucking Anthony. Classic Amico. Damn it, Amico. All right. First play for me.

It's on Fandle. Fandle only. Again, as you can see, you need to go into Super Bowl, not into the game. You slide over to DST props, go down. They have a most tackles and assists. They have a head-to-head. They have a handful of these. We're going to take Justin Reed of the Chiefs, minus 110, over Jair Brown of the 49ers.

Again, broke this down extensively in my article that is free on the site today again you get literally every line uh these moves so line my projection uh the over hit rates the under hit rates and the ev based off of the price uh you know go crazy basically so there's a lot to be had here um but reed is a important piece of this defense here he's going to play a lot to be had here. But Reid is an important piece of this defense here. He's going to play a lot of box snaps. And safeties have really feasted against the Niners this season. They have actually the highest per game average of tackles and assists. And like 4.7 above the league average.

15.8 tackles per game. Now, FanDuel has a rogue 5. half that you have to pay a little bit for. But again, this is the best way to do it. It's just take him head to head against Jair Brown because it's the complete opposite. The Chiefs have actually been one of the worst spots in the league for tackles and assists. So we're getting a bump on Brown because Brown dropped 10 tackles in that game against the Lions. Well, guess who the best spot in the league is for tackles and assists for safeties?

It's the Lions. So we're getting a little bit of like recency bias on the Jair Brown stuff. So give me Justin Reed, who everywhere else is like six and a half. I like the under just straight up on Brown, to be honest, as well. So Reed minus 110. Great look. FanDuel specific. More tackles than Jair Brown.

So I absolutely love it. FanDuel only. Yeah, but where? Click onair Brown. So we love it. Fan duel only. Yeah. But where click on Superbowl, uh, not in the game. Yes. You can't be in the game. Like it won't,

they'll not say with the completion percentage one, you can't click on the game. So click on your home button and then click on the Superbowl tab. And you click on that and you click on more NFL and then just like scroll over and you like at the top, you can, you never can click on the game that's like they hide this shit I don't understand like the books don't want the these hands you

know it's more like sorry I'm handle friends of the show but like no player matchup uh yeah DST props keep sliding passing rushing receiving kicking punting dst scroll down uh jay or brown versus yep yeah he's almost there there you go let's see yeah oh it's minus 150 now look at that that moved from literally minus i think it's still i mean minus 150 it's not bad it's probably closer to what it should be right probably what it should be yeah It's still better than just having reads over 5.5, which is minus 152. Crazy. Minus 150 now.

Damn it. Oh, man. Sorry, Ken. There's a good call. I was in the game. Books, for some reason, want you to jump through all the hoops. Here we are. That's a banger. That's an absolute.

That's a banger. I like that quite a bit. I played his under two before I started reading. So I read your column and I was like, oh, his under generally is like plus, it was five and a half plus money, right? So I bet he's under. But if you like read to have like six or seven, then that probably makes more sense.

So when we get a well-respected person in the space in terms of projections and rankings and things like that, you know, put out Jair Brown to lead the game in tackles. And that massively moved Jair Brown market. And kind of a, again, smart guy, kind of a donkey play. Like I don't think that there's, you know, he's like 12 to one. And again, it was 75 or whatever at the time that's fine i'm not going to begrudge anyone putting down um some beer pizza money on a

75 to 1 bet but in terms of like you know his actual projection is going to be really hard just doesn't have the ceiling outside of that one performance and again it was in kind of the nut spot against the lions last week so we just haven't seen that from him all season so yeah i mean i have his i have him coming in under 60 of the time at from him all season so yeah i mean i have his i have him coming in under 60 of the time at five and a half so yeah i thought that was uh that's probably a good play by itself too so especially again he moved the market and that under got to plus 110 this morning which i think is a good look too so yeah all right connor i mean this is the off the wall part of the show and you start to get into some other stuff. But again, I imagine that's the entirety of the show.

So, the floor is back to you, bud. Yeah, I mean, where do we want to start here? Because I have like five different uncorrelated parlay options. I have one more official play. What do we want to do? Whatever. We had a couple of those last week. It was really nice.

We get to sweat those together. Nelson Aguilar, under one and a half receptions, 25-plus receiving yards. He made us wait until the very end of the game, but that was a 38-to-1 banger. McCaffrey got home as well. We had a couple hits last week. It was nice.

Yeah, we had the – No rules, man. All right. Well, let's roll into some uncorrelated parlays. Let's talk about that because I'm sure that'll take a little bit of time here. All right. I got a couple of good ones here.'ll start it we'll just we'll just go person by person so i think rashid rice is an interesting one but in an inverse way i like the like kind

of what he did last week we saw nine targets eight receptions 46 yards he gets a ton of short stuff um i could see them doing that a lot here again if especially the 49ers are playing zone and just like you know try and get after it like a lot of screens a lot here again, if especially the 49ers are playing zone and just like, you know, try and get after it. Like a lot of screens, a lot of short stuff. Um, so eight receptions and under 67 and a half receiving yards, 16 to one.

I don't think that's that bad at all. I mean, literally just did it last week. Um, and, and that was with 20 yards of cushion, you know, like that was with like a lot of cushion.

If he doesn't break a long one, essentially. Um, I don't know. I mean, Noonan, any thoughts on like Caseyc pass catchers i guess because like i have like two or i think two kc people and then two niners people i like that

one i think that's probably the way i would play rice as well um just some of that like quick volume stuff versus really explosives that's i'm worried about that in this entire game is both these teams do such a good job limiting explosives. So it's kind of what we touched on that on Wednesday. We're kind of leaning under on the game total, too, just because we could have some long, sustained drives that kind of kill some stuff, too. So, yeah, I think Sharpie did it last week.

So don't hate that at all. Yeah. Brian Sullivan bringing up Rasheed Rice stepping on a player's foot. I don't know. Maybe I missed that. Did you you guys hear that i don't think i saw that i mean i will um you know i'll keep an update on it i'll ask some people in the know and see if there's anything real on it i mean there's some rumors about like cmc being injured too you know i reached out to people who said that and then they're like oh we misheard you know so i'm just not really super worried about it um and so um yeah that that was a fun one i thought another good one on the chiefs uh justin watson under one and a half over 16 and a half is five to one i mean

mbs is playing the whole game so i can't really take the under receptions there because he's going to see two targets probably three targets whereas justin watson i mean i think he's like a one zero one or two targets max like and he could very easily catch one of those like in his current role and so under under one and a half over 16 half is five to one 25 plus is 10 to one i i mean i don't know like i think that's like a pretty fringe bet like he's gonna have probably one catch for 12 to 25 yards, probably in that range. And maybe 30, if he breaks a big one.

And there's like the meaty range of his outcomes, in my opinion. So I think, you know, both of those are pretty solid. Slop, any, any Justin Watson takes or,

you know, thoughts on the Casey pass catchers for this stuff? The Casey pass catchers are what I hate the most is because you don't know which one hit his. So yeah, Watson under the receptions hate the most is because you don't know which one it is. So, yeah, Watson under the receptions over the yards is – because, like, he'll catch one ball for, like, 40 yards and then you'll never see him again. Or, you know, like, nothing.

The Rice, I kind of like the under in the yards over the receptions. That's not bad. He could get loose, but, yeah. We were the exact opposite last, I think it was the championship game. I was like, Oh my God, this guy's not even getting anywhere near the yards.

And he's got like 25 receptions already. Like what's happening. Yeah. Learned our lesson. We went the wrong way. We were, we were, we were totally wrong in theory,

I guess. We were a complete oppositely, you know, wrong. But the fact that we played him, I feel like is a good sign you know yeah no two wrongs make a right that's what i've always heard so yeah that's true that's math oh yeah that's yeah oldest time we were inversely correlated correct you know that's

how that's how it works as well um okay one more this this one is probably the craziest one i've ever done and you guys are gonna think i'm probably dumb for this one but i was thinking about this morning i'm like all right the chiefs play a lot more heavier packages they play two tight ends three tight ends sometimes what we have no gray three receptions and under 11 and a half receiving yards we're talking about imagine he gets like you know a couple like a first down conversion for like two yards three receptions and under 11 and a half receiving yards. We're talking about, imagine he gets like, you know,

a couple, like a first down conversion for like two yards, one yard touchdown, one yard touchdown or an inside the 10 thing. That's 47 to one. I mean, if you do it two, two catches and under 11 and a half, it's like 10 to one,

which is still solid, but not as exciting. And then if you add in the touchdown, so anytime touchdown, three receptions under 11, half yards, again, it's 225 to one so like completely outrageous but like if you're gonna go along that narrative i don't think it's like the worst way to spend you know a couple bucks um

all right did i did i at least convince you to throw like a dollar on it or or no shot you're wasting a single penny i had both the justin watson one and i have both iterations of noah gray on list to talk about because gray's involved like and we talked about another thing we talked about on the show like they've they've gone from three tight end sets uh running that seven percent clip on the right during the regular season it's up to 19 and they're mostly using it they're running out of it um at like 76 so they're only throwing out of it a little bit but gray's on the field more and he is like even in two tight end sets he's the first one over blake bell so and they do that quite frequently too so yeah i like it just the binary props on on him too like i think

are interesting uh you know one and a half receptions 11 and a half receiving yards but i made the case like i have both like over one and a half receptions under 11 and a half receiving yards and like plus 869 and then the other way under just the one big play under one and a half receptions over 11 and a half at eight to one i think they're both interesting so you can the touchdown yeah and you're going to like three three receptions that's a little rich but i looked at his game log he has a few of them he's been involved so look the dude they don't want the other dovers on the field right they don't want hardman or tony out there and like sky more is going to come off ir all of a sudden

they're going to go with a bunch of three receiver sets like i don't think they are so i think they're going to be able to bunch of three receiver sets. Like, I don't think they are. So I think they're going to be able to run so well out of the jumbo formations too. Like, Gray's going to be on the field. So some sort of Gray bet, I am 100% down. Might as well make it 225 to one. So, yeah, I like it. Slop, where's your head at here?

Are you a no Gray guy or you think he's worse than MBS? Yeah, I bet way dumber stuff than that so i'm in there i'm thinking like what about iuk i mean it's five plus 556 under four and a half receptions over 62 and a half yards i mean same thing happened last week he gets targeted eight times catches two of them and then somehow a ball hits another guy in the face. He falls down. He jumps on it. Somehow he's got 51 yards.

Like that can happen. I feel like that's the way that it would happen. Yeah. Can you imagine he catches another face mask ball in this game? I mean, seriously, if he did not, think about it like this. If he did not do that, he catches, what, two for 17 against arguably the worst secondary we've ever seen in our lives. Being targeted seven times or eight times.

Sorry. I mean, that can happen. But, like, that's the thing, though. Like, that's actually a good stat is my point. Like, that's for this. That's a great stat. Yeah. Won't catch five balls, but he can get you 70.

That's true. I mean, they do move them around enough to like, he plays like 75, 80% on the outside, something like that. But he plays a little bit in the slot, like 20, 30%. So if they move him around, like he's going to get a couple of targets that will be like not with the Jerry Snead on him. And I think he could win a couple of against the jerry's need as well here and there so like i mean yeah actually you talked me into it yeah he didn't even win the rep last time

like hit the guy in the face while it's nowhere near him uh noonan we have someone comparing you to Baker Mayfield in the middle. I don't know what he means by that, but I take his disrespect. I don't know. I mean, I feel like Baker Mayfield's a good-looking guy.

I think he's a bad quarterback. I'll take it. Thanks, Amy. Appreciate you, buddy. Hit the subscribe. We called the kids from Sandlot. I think this is better than the kid from Sandlot, right? Yeah, I got to be honest with you. That's a step up.

Yeah. So, hey. The kid from Sandlot never took a snap in the NFL. No. That's a fact. Look it up. Doesn't have a Heisman or whatever. Oh, yeah.

He never won a Heisman either. Yeah. All right. Last one for me, CMC under four and a half receptions, 40 receiving yards. Again, we hit it last week. Now we're looking at 16 to one. Is that right? Under four and a half, 40 plus because his over is juiced up, like favored over.

So I just don't think there's any much passing volume. Like I think that all these Niners guys, like Kittle's prop too is worth paying attention to. It was four and a half at open and receptions and like all the yardage was still there. So I played all those just at open, but now it's three and a half, which I don't like as much. I just think all these guys are going to have limited volume

and like some of them are going to pop. I'm just not really sure which one and for how much. Might as well just have them all. Yes. I'm on pace. I mean, honestly, now that you've talked to me about you, I'm very much on pace to have literally every single one of them. Like every time someone does something, you're like, yeah.

Or like, damn it. That's what I'm going to my friend's house and he's like a big Niners fan. And he's like, don't be like cheering that much for the chiefs. And I'm like, brother, I have bet on literally every single aspect of this game. I'm not going to be cheering for her. I'm going to be cheering for everything and nothing at the same time. Like, I don't even know what I'm rooting for at this point.

Yeah. We get to spray the board time, uh, the conference championship game too on the Niners, you know, like under on the receptions over in the yards for all those guys, things that we can get some big plays and stuff like that. So yes, CMC hit. Yeah, interesting. So yeah, no, I like those, Connor.

I mean, I particularly like some of the Noah Gray stuff. You make a good case that MVS is, you're going to be on the field so much. So under one and a half receptions is tough. We thought he got there last week for us or last game and he caught that late pass. So sad. Missed one of those earlier receptions somehow.

But, yeah, I mean, under one and a half, 25 plus is 12 to one. I like the Watson stuff as well there too. And, yeah, those are interesting. Where you at, Slop? What do you got next? All right, I only have one, like, super weird play, and it's only because it's the Super Bowl. I'd never do this in any other game.

But you kind of got to go final score. you know so chiefs 20 49ers 16 i think it's gonna be a snooze fest i don't want to take the under because i hate the under but i think it i think this thing goes under like i i that's what that's one reason why i'm not too excited about the game just because of that but it is the super Super Bowl, so I am excited. That makes sense. But, yeah, 2016 is plus 19,000 at FanDuel. I think we're going to see a lot of long drives. Everything I hate in a football game, a lot of long drives,

short dink and dunk passes, not a lot of touchdowns. It could be rough. But I think the Chiefs win the game. I really do. I think that I'm going to sit down in front of the TV, uh, Sunday night and be very happy that I didn't take the 49ers and like minus two and a half with Brock parties. I think, I think he stinks. I don't think he's very good.

Like I, I just do. And I don't know, 2016 very good like i i just do and i don't know 2016 feels right plus 19 000 and if you're watching the game with your friends and you hit one of these you are an instant legend forever like it's forever it never goes away you can always bring that up and i'm sure in any in any cycle of any fight any discussion disagreements always. Here's the one thing I will say, though. If you do do this in any final score bet, don't tell people you have it when you get there and then start announcing what you need every single – like it just – it's not going to hit.

Nobody's impressed. Everyone hates you. You know what I'm saying? So like for doing that and it's just –, the worst is whenever it gets to the second half and it still could happen and you got someone just telling you about what they need. It's like, buddy, like, this is, like, it's up there with fantasy team in terms of, like, nobody gives a shit.

You know what I mean? About your team. Like, they just don't. Like, it's very important to you, not important to anybody else. So, just a little etiquette there. That's all. Just a better party for everybody. But if it does hit, you are allowed to talk.

You're good there. Yeah, if any bad hits, there's my guy. We're good. Sweat him out. You got a room full of people with laundry-listed tickets. It's hard to... Connor and I watched the games together last week, and it's like

I know Connor's got... well, first of all, I know 90% of his action, but I also know that he has like 90 bets. So, like, you don't need to go blow by blow for all of them. You know, I'm guilty of it because, you know, one of my guys puts his nose in on a tackle or doesn't. I'm like, I want that, and I'll speak up there. But, you know, it's a good etiquette call. It's tough, man.

You get fired up. Now you're drinking. It's the last game of the season. You got way more bets than you normally have. Like, I mean, I totally get it. Like, no one's judging. It's just you got to reel it in. You got to reel it in.

You know how jacked I was for me, Cole Hardman, playing a single snap? I was literally – it was like – You tweeted about it. Because, yeah, you know, i bet under one and a half receptions and like i was like wow he's not playing like you know first drive goes by second drive goes by i'm like man this is it's getting sweaty is he gonna play a snap because then you're assigned a snap count runs one route and then there was a penalty on the next snap people like oh there's a penalty it's not gonna count so i'm like furiously looking through game logs to make

sure that it was that play that he actually played on it was not a different one one, but he got that one snap. He literally ran like a, basically behind the line of scrimmage. Mahomes didn't even look at him. So if for some reason Mikko Ardman's active and we get a line on him, I will be taking his under at under half of whatever, half a yard, half reception. I don't care. I'll be letting the under just for fun. Kind of go back to the well for sure. Yeah right uh yes let me see if i have any others because connor kind of uh was there with me the other one i have joan jennings um one jennings is like kind of a sneaky deep average depth of target um it doesn't get a ton of volume they don't run a lot of three receiver sets but but Jawan Jennings under one and a half receptions

over 14 and a half receiving yards. Just his binary prop is basically seven to one on Fandles. That's my only other one that Connor didn't touch on because I like the Watson, the gray stuff there as well. So yeah, those are of interest to me. So some other stuff that is kind of of interest here. Well, I don't know where to go. I got a lot of stuff.

I love CMC stuff. I want a bunch of CMC stuff. The more I think about it, I think regardless of what you think of how this game plays out, if the Niners win, CMC is going to be heavily involved. Even if they're not, he's pretty struggling. I think CMC in the passing game or you think he's going to be heavily involved. So I played his first carry direction to the left. It was my first play of the week here, and that was plus 135.

I think it's still plus money out there. Niners lead the league in rushes to the left. 58% of their attempts are right behind big old Trent Williams' ass, and I imagine they start the game off that way as well. Again, if you still get plus money there too. They have bans on that too. So left four or fewer is plus 275. Left five to nine is probably the most interesting to me price-wise,

like eight to one. So he just has like a nice yard, nice little carry, five-yard carry. Eight to one to the left side of the field. Eight to one to start your day. Like you haven't even had like the main meal yet. You know, you're kind of cooking already. So I think that's a nice one. His basic line is first carry is three

and a half minus 115 so yeah you know eight to one feels like a nice jump for just another yard and a half or so um 10 plus you want an explosive for him is is nine to one so i feel like the eight to one is is kind of mispriced uh you can get you can lay a little bit of juice minus 140 on draft kings for cmc to have-plus rushing yards in each half. I don't like that. I don't mind laying that juice. I think like longest, I like both. I like longest rush, 17.5, and longest reception, 13.5 too.

I think you're going to see a lot of second-level blitzing from Kansas City. It's what they do. They blitz at the second level. Linebackers, corners at the fourth-highest rate in the league. The bunch formations of what Shanahan does offensively brings those guys in. Makes it a little bit easier for him to disguise those. And I think it's going to be something that Purdy is just kind of forced to do, to get the ball out quickly.

He does a really good job at avoiding sacks. But I think he's going to have to get some balls out quick and dump off to CMC. Again, you get all of a sudden a corner or safety blitzing, and that linebacker has to drop in coverage and cover CMC in the flat. I think that's going to be something they're looking to do. They want to get Nick Bolton. They want to get Drew Tranquil in coverage against CMC as much as possible. So I think the CMC longest stuff makes a ton of sense

and again i think he is probably the best value in terms of niners to win the mvp uh you know outside of purdy obviously but 450 i think is you know if you like the niners to win the game i think the cmc mvp vote uh even though you know you could have got seven a couple weeks ago whatever 450 is still of interest to me so yeah yeah, I love lots of different CMC stuff here. Connor, you mentioned CMC MVP. Okay, yeah, nice. Yeah, people have been texting me like, you know, how is CMC plus 450?

I mean, I think that if the Niners win the way that I expect them to win, CMC is like a way more likely option than even like Purdy. Like it would take, I don't know. I just like, I'm having a really tough time envisioning Purdy having like an awesome game. Like that's like,

you know, maybe he has a good moment or two, maybe throws a touchdown. You know, I just, I like 250 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions would be really surprising to me. Like that would be like,

I would be very surprised. And so like for them to win and CMC has like one 25 and two scores and they win 2017, 24, 21, whatever, like somewhere in that range, CMC is definitely winning MVP. So, um, I don't know. I mean, it's, I just like, I think plus four 50 is still like way too low. That's probably one of my bigger, that was by far my biggest MVP bet. Um, I don't know. I think it's a,

I think it's a solid book. Yeah. Yeah. So I know you're not there on nine or MVP tickets, but you know, partially because you're not a pretty though. So I guess you'd be probably back it. If you're,

if you're, I mean, obviously you want to kind of have a couple MVPs just, just because so MVPs work. But if I'm taking a 49er to get MVP, it's not going to be Purdy. Like, I want to be a Purdy guy. Like, I kind of dress like him.

You know what I mean? Like, it seems like my kind of guy. Like, I would hang out with him. But, like, when you watch a player, it's like, man, I just don't think he's that good. Like, he can show up and throw four picks, dude. Like, that could happen. And the thing is, like, I mean, maybe not four and they could win,

but what if he throws a couple picks, somehow they still win, though? It's probably because of CMC. It will be an obvious not the quarterback situation. That's all I'm saying. If 49ers win. Also, ESPN bet has, uh, so you can bet individual alternate over interceptions. So I took this for both quarterbacks just cause I mean, again,

I've been just betting fucking everything. So it's over, over half interceptions, whatever normal one, over one and a half interceptions was four to one for both of them. Over two and a half interceptions was like 16 to one for both of them. I mean, obviously I think Purdy is way, way more alive for that than my homes. Three interceptions for my homes would take like,

I don't even know. Has he even thrown three interceptions in a game in his career? I don't, I'm not even sure, but I think so. I think once. Yeah. Yeah.

But I think Purdy is, I mean, he's already done this year against one of the top five defenses that he played. So I don't think it would be that, that crazy. Now they probably wouldn't win in that scenario. But, you know, again, the interception prop, 15 to 1, could do worse.

I'll be honest with you. That's like an over on how bad he is. So I can take that. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. It'd be fun. I don't like the negative props, like the unders or the turnovers in basketball or the exceptions,

but you can kind of turn that into a positive pretty quick. It correlates well with any KC to win tickets or anything like that. Folks in our Discord for telling us, back to my uh justin reed over jay your brown prop looks like mgm if you can get down there at all has the uh that match up uh and read minus 120 good thing about mgm you know not everyone can get down good thing is that they're slow to move lines sometimes if you happen yeah if you happen to have the ability to get over there and uh you know get uh get something down that number is still hanging out over there so get your three dollars in getting it out that's what they do instead of move lines they say hey you know what

how about three bucks yeah no you wanted to know you wanted your hundred but we can do i got a couple a couple of weird ones i want to i want to get your guys's uh thought on uh i touched on this a little bit at the end of our Wednesday show. I want to get Slop's reaction. This is a DraftKings specific one. You probably can find it elsewhere. Again, these menus are so hard to navigate. APIs make it hard for us to

aggregate this stuff in any sort of tool or anything like that. Time of first possession under 3 minutes and 15 seconds. This is minus 110. So just the first drive, whoever gets the ball first has the ball for less than three minutes and 15 seconds. When you look at league average time of possession is two minutes in 43 seconds. So like no team averaged this much at any point in the season.

Both the Niners and the Chiefs have lower averages than this, less than three minutes actually. And then you look at last year, the first drive in last year's game went over this. The next five all went under. So you can still get a first down too and still go under this. Again, depending on how like play sequencing and, you know, incomplete passes or anything like that.

You just typically see it, especially like slop to your point. You know, if you have Purdy and the Niners get the ball first, like it's not uncommon. We have historically seen first quarters be under in tight and, you know, more punts than expected a game starting a little bit slow.

It's just the nature of the Superbowl. It's a very different pace, the way that the game goes. And, you know, it's obviously a very, a larger moment. It's hard not to experience and feel that.

So under 315, again, just minus 110. Obviously, looking at league averages is just one way to look at it, but I thought it was a little interesting considering no team really even touches this. We're not having to really pay any tax on it. So off the top, hearing it for the first time, Slop, what are your thoughts? I don't mind it. Those are tough i mean you're right like they are so tight to super bowls it's just like nobody wants to mess up like it's just it's almost like uh you don't want the ball first you know what i mean yeah just because like no seriously it's not even like they're on offense like it's just they just show up scared i can see I mean, that's – you would think it'd be in the twos. That's – yeah, that's my point.

You know what I mean? Like, it's weird to hear, like, that would be in the threes. Yeah. I think one team averaged over three all season on their average drive. So, considering the nature of the environment in the moment, I think that that's probably a little too high. Also, tie in the first half. I mean, these are – we expect this to be a tight game um and there's probably there's

better ways to do this too um so time the first half is plus 950 on draft kings you go over on caesars and go tie first half niners to win 20 to 1 tie first half kc to win 19 to 1 so whoever you like to win instead of just betting tie flat out the game's obviously not going to end in a tie you got to pick a winner uh you just you can pick both it's not going to cost you very much sprinkle 19 and a 20 on your side so hey it's interesting to me that the chiefs are shorter in this instance just considering i guess what they think the game script is going to be in with it being a tie But I don't know, 10-10 first half. And we see what happens.

We had a tie last year, I think. We've had numerous ties historically in the first half and some low-scoring games. So, yeah, I don't know. I think I'll probably get down on – I'm warming up to the Niners side. Sorry, Slap. A tie and Niners win 20-1. You're going to watch – I'm telling you, you're going to watch two drives

and be like, what the hell did I do? Like, what was I thinking? I do all the time. I didn't like, I have to think about future me sitting down on the couch on Sunday to kind of get in, like,

like talk myself out of nonsense. Cause I'm so susceptible to doing stupid stuff that like, I have to go to that. And every time I go to that, I'm like, wow, like they're giving me two and a half points with Mahomes. I know.

That's – It's like it's a lot. It's been – That's the same where I've been for two weeks. The Niners. Yeah, no, that's the problem with two weeks too. You get so much time to think about it that you end up like Connor with a spreadsheet full of plays and like you don't even know what you have.

Yeah. That's a good problem to have though. Like that's it. You just wait and see the balances at the end. Yeah. There's too many bets that are not enough bets. You know what I mean? Because that. Like that's the balances of the end. Yeah. There's too many bets that are not enough bets. You know what I mean? Cause that game's going to end and it's over.

Like it hits you pretty hard that like, damn, like we're not. And then all off season, it's just draft season. Just going to be sweating draft bets. Who said what, who said this,

you know? I mean, obviously that's on, that's great too, but it's a different kind of sweat. It ain't the same. It's not the same as Sunday game, I'll give you that. But, no, it's a great sweat on its own.

But, I mean, like, I'm telling you, like, right after the game, like, I haven't looked yet, but, like, the first thing I'm thinking is, is there a, like, college basketball game on right now? You know, like, on the West Coast, because, like, you need to, like, immediately get into something else or you're going to get sad. Like, like man this is not okay getting into the golf streets this uh this summer you know kind of balance out the college stuff yeah yeah no i i'm with yes i love connor's approach here i probably won't spray the board as much as uh as connor is here but yeah i think that you

know it's you know better responsibly outside of the Superbowl. Yeah. You know, I'm going to spray the board a little bit. So yeah, I mean, Hey, picking a team is fun, whatever. Might as well find a way to like leverage it a little bit more on, you know, I think Niners with, you know, you're cheering for a tie at the end of the half. So, you know, that's one of those things.

On every play. Yeah. Somehow. It's just weird. Those. On every play. Yeah. Somehow. It's just weird. Those are. But pre-snap, though. You don't want to be doing it on your phone while the play. You know what I'm saying?

So you got to do it. You got to think ahead about future you and how am I going to make sure that I'm involved in every single play. There are some fun ones that like to have a catch this drive. I know Miko and Solak and Dalton have been betting those. I mean, those are in big games. They're so fun, especially because I think we're going to see a catch this drive. I know Miko and Solak and Dalton have been betting those. I mean, those are in big games. They're so fun,

especially because I think we're going to see some, a lot of sustained drives, but maybe not like, it's kind of like long sustained drives. Like I think Kelsey and Rasheed Rice numbers are going to be awesome for the Niners. Debo numbers are going to be great. I'm not betting them first drive,

but like let, let the game settle in a little bit. And then, you know, we're talking about like second half, maybe cup first couple of drives there. I think they'll dial up some guys their plays their playmaker so yeah i like that quite a bit same thing i'm looking to you know some of the plays on the defensive side that i haven't made that i want to make i'm gonna let kind of the first quarter dictate because there's going to be live opportunities um like i think

there's going to be one of the premier linebackers in this game nick bolton drake greenlaw fred warner are going to fly over their number i haven't bet any of them before the game because long sustained drive and you're on the sideline um while your team is like you know just going down with you know 10 12 play drive your number is just going to slowly dip obviously it's going to with you know 10 12 play drive your number is just going to slowly dip um so it's going to be you know easier opportunities and then when you get on the field and the other team takes you for a rinse for you know a 10 play drive you can stack them up so there's gonna be opportunities live to take advantage so i've waited on some of those so um fired on a bunch of other ones like we bet willie gay under four and a half tackles and assists. Love that one. Willie Gay's impact in this game is, I think, way overrated.

Definitely his tackle volume. Played Mike Edwards over three and a half. Again, some of these numbers might be cooked because I put out my article a couple hours ago, and some sharp people have looked at it and they've probably moved it. One of the cornerbacks for the niners is a great look to over three and a half solo tackles over four and a half combined tackles and assists is one of my favorite looks in the game too so um connor what else you got i know you get you know anything else that you've bet that's still live or you know what else yeah i

got another official play for the people i was caught skipping there um all right so this is kind of a fun one kelsey first reception for the chiefs. So I got my hands a little dirty here, obviously outside of like the name brand stuff. So if you go back and watch all their first three playoff games, every single first read was the Kelsey in all three games. So basically the first game against the dolphins, it was like a play action.

And Kelsey ran like over the middle, but my home's eyes did not move out of the middle of field. And Kelsey was the only one in the middle. It was like, he knew that he was ran like over the middle, but Mahomes eyes did not move out of the middle of field. And Kelsey was the only one in the middle. It was like, he knew that he was running in between the zone, miss him, obviously miss him. But it's the intent that matters.

The second game, he went, the next two games, he ran, went in motion behind the line of scrimmage on both first plays against the Ravens. It was just like a short little dump off four yards. It was literally just like reading the end.

He like bumped the end and then ran out for four yards. So then the other game, it was he went in motion and then they just had him locked down. So Mahomes looked his way, was like, oh shit, under pressure, like scrambled out and then hit Rasheed Rice. But his first look was the Kelsey. So like, again, more often times than not,

I think it's going to Kelsey. So we're getting plus 250 at Caesars. You can find this under receiving props, scroll down. So like, yeah, is it like an awesome problem doing like risk 0.4 units to win a unit? So like, you know, I don't think it's like crazy, but at the same time, like I think there's some value there. I think it should probably be close to like two to one because just like what we've seen from them so far in the playoffs. I like that. 250 is a nice little number too. Slop, is there a MVP path for the Niners outside of Mahomes?

I don't see it necessarily. I know people are trying to see it. Chelsea's got a big old number. I don't think so. You know what I kind of do like though is Pacheco, Pacheco, 80-plus yards. It's like 80-plus rushing yards. It's plus 148. i don't know if you noticed but like you could just run on the niners like like aaron jones did i mean the packers

literally just ran at them and they had to know it was coming i mean the weather that night and plus it's the packers off it like they couldn't stop it and then um montgomery and the other kid, the Gibbs kid, both of them did fine last week. So now you're thinking about Mahomes. You're not thinking about this run game. So like 80-plus yards. I mean, going through his game logs, I think he was at like 97. Last week it took him 24 rushes to get whatever he got to. But that was the Ravens.

So, you know, whatever. But was the Ravens, so whatever. But 97 against Buffalo, 89 against Miami, buck 30 against Cincinnati, buck 10 against looks like Green Bay. I mean, he's gone for big days, so 80 plus yards just does not feel like a lot. Yeah, I like him. I like different ways to attack him. I have his longest as a look, 15.5 minus 105 is out there. Touched on it again on the Wednesday show.

The Niners refuse to go five down defensive linemen, and that's a problem with this jumbo three tight ends, two tight ends set that the Chiefs are running at a higher rate than normal. They're going to have to make tackles in space. Pacheco's going to be... I think he's going to have some splash plays. He's going to have to go for a buck and change in multiple scores. And Mahomes is going to have to have a pedestrian

game. So I guess 30-1 is not a bad number. Patrick Mahomes. The way the MVP is so weird to in the Super Bowl, they're asking for that bet in the middle of third quarter. They want people's votes early and early in that game. It's really weird.

So I don't know. Mahomes feels like such a lock to me, Connor. But yeah, you want to make the case for the MVP? I'm telling you now that the dog just barked. I mean, you have to bet for the MVP. It's like the dog seal of approval is a strong one. No, but I think you laid it out well. It's like, I mean, you're paying like, you know, 30 to one, right?

So it's like, you know, a one in 30 chance of Mahomes throwing a pick in the game being like 21, 17, like, you know, and the Chiefs win on the back of 120 yards and two touchdowns for Pacheco. Like maybe, you know, like maybe you're better off just like SGP-ing it, but I don't even know if SGP would get to 30 to one based on a Mahomes interception, two touchdowns. Like, I don't think it would even get there. I could probably be like 15 to one, 16 to one. So, I mean, again, it's like kind of an outlandish take, I think in some sense.

It's definitely on an Island. Like I would say 95% of people agree with you guys. And I do think that in the majority of outcomes, if the Chiefs win, Mahomes will win MVP. And we saw Damian Williams, right, have like 100 yards and two touchdowns, and they lost. But I think that was a higher scoring game, though. That was like they scored 30-something, right? And they had that comeback and everything.

And was that against the Niners? Who was that against? Yeah, so I mean, like I think like obviously that game ends a lot lower scoring, and Mahomes doesn't have that like sick comeback, then maybe he's not MVP. So I don't know. Yeah. I mean,

we had a couple of Brady non MVPs, Dion branch, Julian Edelman. I'm just like, Jules coach. Don't always, don't always win it. So yeah,

I guess you can get there. You sold me a little bit. Cause I like Pacheco. So I'm, I'm in on Pacheco having, you know, whether it's some splash plays, what else?

There's another Pacheco play that I had too. Oh, first half rushing yards. Pacheco over 35 and a half. It's a little higher, right? So like his normal number is like 67 and a half on worst thoughts. But like regardless of what you think in the game, like it's probably early. They probably try to lean into that a little bit more early.

So 35 and a half I think is minus 110 on DraftKings. I think that's a – you're going to go to whatever, first half lines. And, yeah, 35 and a half for Pacheco I think is a good look. So, yeah, I'm definitely in on Pacheco being massively impactful in this game. So, yeah, 31, you sold me a little bit. So, yeah, Steve's mentioning first quarter line too, 16 and a half. Yeah. This is Silva's play of the the century uh so it's probably dead yeah it's uh loves Pacheco first

quarter over 16 and a half I mean I think you might hit that on the first drive if they really commit to the run to be honest like I think they're going to but I mean I thought they're going to do that for multiple games and then they just came out and throw them through the ball anyways, against the bills and dolphins. And so, and the Ravens, I mean, like the Ravens have a great past years and they still passed a plenty. So yeah, I don't know. It's just when it comes down to it, the chiefs are not scared of anyone. They're going to put the ball in my home's hands and let him do whatever.

So yeah, it's kind of tough. Silva being too drunk to drive home from my house in the Superbowl tradition, unlike any other. So I imagine he'll be sleeping on my couch again this year. This is something that happens every year. Although we'll see his daughter's coming this year. So we'll see.

He's probably, he probably finds a way home. So you'd think that would make you more responsible. You would think. All right. So have you got anything else to people? I have one more little look I want to get to, but I want to give you the first. I think you got to kind of bet the Gatorade just because like after –

I mean it's a long game. Everyone's tired. Most of your bets are already – you know about them, and now you just want to have one more sweat, and I'd say the Gatorade is probably the way to go. I got a Gatorade guy. Lucky for us, I got a Gatorade guy. He's saying blue.

Blue is three out of the last five, but this is not a trend play. This is a generational play, basically. He's saying the young guys, they like the blue. They're all about the blue, and that's all I play, basically. He's saying the young guys, they like the blue. They're all about the blue. And that's all I can really say. All right. Right now, it appears that blue is plus 375. I can't bet it here in Massachusetts for some reason

because they didn't file the correct paperwork, I think. Fandle, something like that. Not a slander to our sponsor, Fandle. You guys are doing a great job. But, yeah, got a Gatorade guy. He's the best there is. He was wrong last year, full disclosure, but not his fault. I'm sure they probably picked up the wrong bucket or something.

But, no, the Chiefs have gone orange. I think in 2020 they went purple last year. Obvious choice is blue. So I, too, also have a Gatorade guy who will let us know, like, 30 minutes to an hour before game time, what the Chiefs thing is. But the Chiefs have to win. That's the issue, is that the Chiefs have to win. So I don't, like, I might just, like, put, like,

I might just bet a bunch on Niners' money line and then a bunch on, like, the Gatorade college use it as like a hedge on like chiefs money line. Um, I don't know, like maybe a little bit, have a little more, more exposure because I feel like blue would be a good one.

The last, so last time was purple. The time that they played 49ers, they were with orange. Um, so I mean, maybe they're mixing it up. Maybe they're going blue or they're just like the same Gatorade guy.

Is that what I'm starting to figure out? We might. Are you talking about Todd? No, different Gatorade guys. I don't even know what Todd is. He's like drug dealers. Like, you know, this is great. I have no idea who Todd is.

We going with the same guy or what? So here's the thing, Slob. The kids like the blue, so they drink the blue. That's why the orange is around. Yep. No, that's the thing. So maybe they have, like, one that they plan on don't we talked about this earlier today um and they were thinking there's also a chance that there's just one like hanging around that no one like drinks

out of because like there's no limit to how many gatorade containers could be on the sideline right like it could just be whatever right interesting yeah is there uh so lemon lime uh it's yellow slash green uh well at least the drafting is a post both so yeah just asking about the specifics of uh what is lemon lime classified as so yeah interesting interesting i i felt like i've had like misguided passionately held gatorade color takes in the past and i don't this year. So we're going to, we'll write it out, but I'll, I'll let you guys tell me what your Gatorade guy tells you.

And we'll, uh, we'll go from there. Biggest issue with the Gatorade is usually you're so hammered by the time. It's like you, you miss it or you like, I thought it was purple and it turned out it was green.

You know what I mean? Like, I didn't, yeah. They almost never get it live on camera too. So you're going to like, yeah. Oh God.

Terrible. Find somebody people on Twitter, start rumors, which I think is funny, but as someone with a ticket, that always sucks because you're like, I don't know if this clumsy 69 guy is legit or not, but you know what I'm saying? So that's tough. Crack rock? Yeah, crack rock.

It's like, it sounds legit, but, you know. If your Gatorade guy is hanging out at Mar-a-Lago, then we're set. So we'll be able to get all that information. One of the last things I have here, this is a DraftKings specifics thing. I think sometimes you see it in other books, but I haven't seen it anywhere else. The top of the screen, cross-sport specials i'll give you uh nba props they also have soccer props apparently you can do that that's uh that's a sport and then there's also golf uh props which is which is uh where i'm gonna hang out with so um a couple that interest me first there is uh what will be more. There's Jordan Spieth round four total birdies

versus total made field goals in the game. This is a three-way market, which makes it a little bit interesting. So tie is available. We have projected, again, head over to betsportsgolf.com if you want to bet golf with us this year. We have Spieth's birdies per round here, a little bit higher

scoring was a little bit lower around four last year. We got them about 4.75. Don't think there's going to be that many made field goals. You could sell me on attempted field goals, but I can lay minus 105 on Spieth birdies. That's interesting to me. And also the Scotty Scheffler one, what will be more Scotty scheffler one what will be more scotty scheffler round four birdies versus total touchdowns in the game both total touchdown markets are two and a half juiced a little bit to the over i was telling you around five or so uh i'm gonna have scotty probably like and if you were to bet his birdie line it's probably going to be five and a half juice to the over two i still think scotty could probably win this

tournament he's a little bit of a slow start here, but you know, still one of the favorites to win it back to back camps going for a third in a row. So, you know, Shuffler getting six birdies that's plus one 90 again, the three-way market there as well. So I like the speed one a little bit better, but I like the Shuffler one too. Those are drafting specific novelty props on the waste management. So interesting. Yeah.

Love that. Love that. And before we end the listener section here too, I want to tell the folks we have a new partnership, DraftKings Pick Six. It's like a new pick them style platform. You choose players that more or less have a certain statistical category. It's kind of like prize picks,

like underdog, same thing, except there's like a peer to peer aspect of the whole thing. So, you know, you can win way more or, you know, not win as much, but depending on who everyone else picks, um, there's some interesting off market lines there, pretty under 33 and a half pass attempts is just like way off market. Uh, I don't really know what it's doing there, but people also don't like to bet under. So you can just take advantage of people's biases towards betting overs and take the under there so under 33 and that fast stems and i like juwan jennings under one at perceptions as to my favorite looks uh there um yeah i know it's i'm a little bit uh

a little bit wild with my you know takes on pick six here but uh yeah it's a solid thing solid app go check it out um you can find the link in the show notes so there you go do lol i i think they might honestly i know i know you're a big lol guy now aren't you huge you're killing it right that's your like i don't really know what i'm doing i don't really understand the game but it doesn't matter you're winning though that's what we're talking about yes it has won um i'm up a little bit but uh you gotta keep going they play every day love the kids love going. They play every day. Love the kids. Love the kids. They play every day. Every single day. They just play video games.

And you can bet on them. And I think that's awesome. But if you can do LOL on the pick six, I might be in on pick six. I'm not sure, honestly. And if they don't, I can put in a request. That's what you should do. Say, hey, look, you know what? Some of the guys were saying we want to bet on kids playing video games.

They're not really kids. They're like early 20 guys. So there's that. It's not actual like teenagers. How did you get into this, Slop? Like how did you wind up in – did you ever have a line up and you're like, what the fuck am I doing? It's the fantasy optimizer at Osh Jam, right? So you get on it and you're looking for value, but the stuff disappears quick.

It's just what you were saying, though. It's Purdy, Under, though, whatever, 33. It's like 31 and a half in the book. So the Optimizer is picking these off, right? So there's a list of them and you got to be quick. Well, the problem is they go away before i can hit submit so then i just ended up just like you know what let's just go all esports that way i don't get frustrated nothing is broken and i can get a slip in and it actually works and i was like wow i i

don't know what i'm watching i don't really watch the game i just kind of watch the stats you know but uh yeah that's how i got into it though it's like not being able to get into nba i'll have like one nba guy and then all a bunch of like video game monikers it's it's just weird but but kind of fun wherever the money is right yeah i mean it's tough work not an easy one are you if anyone run through some questions they would run a little long but hey it's the last one yeah you got a couple minutes? Okay. Yeah. All right. Cool. All right. Evie, let's get this show on the road. Have all the screens to watch the waste management

and the boys on the tube and pep hack for the show. Love that. That's a great combo right there. I'm very jealous of that. If you got multiple screens, put us all on the different screens there. That's fun. Jeff? I want to apologize to Evie because Evie was waiting. He wanted to add the...

I told him I had a tackle prop coming. He said he wanted to add it to his prize pick slip. And it was a matchup and not a prize pick's available one. So, Evie, I'm sorry, buddy. Yeah, that's tough. But I don't know.

You can probably read your column and I'm sure there's some off-market lines that you could probably take advantage of on prize picks, Vivid, maybe DK pick six. Who knows? Elijah Mitchell, over four and a half rushing yards. Are you elijah mitchell guy slop i don't know i feel like it's like a kind of a cult that i joined that i am now a part of yeah you gotta know people to get in that cult i don't know yeah it's extremely exclusive um but

you know it's kind of like being a justin watson truther you know you just like get on there and back it whenever it makes sense and there's no right or wrong or no rhyme or reason. So let's see here. Candors, shitting on the books. It's amazing how books have pivoted from the usual setup. How can we make finding these markets as difficult as possible? Yeah, Noonan, I feel like that's pretty accurate. Did a great job.

Yeah. It's nuts. Complete disaster. Noonan, where are you at with Kyle Juszczyk? We haven't really talked to him about this. Five and a half rushing receiving yards? Three and a half receiving yards? I don't know what I'm feeling.

I mean, he's going to run a couple routes. He'll be out there a lot. But he's Kyle Juszczyk. I don't know. You've got to pay way too much attention. You know what I mean? You could miss that one. I don't know. You're getting

something to eat or i don't like that that's a tough one and then you come back in nobody knows who the guy is like yeah white guy just caught a ball and it's like that was kittle you know what i mean it's like that's yeah that was charlie warner actually you know it wasn't yeah exactly it wasn't even you but you think you won for a second like you never want that like that's just bad aura yeah just how it goes uh bennett kelsey over receiving yards to make it 4-4 in the playoffs dk has the line set 70 and a half for minus 130 if you do any same game probably you can get 70 plus for minus 125 bit of value if you can get it um we're seeing kelsey's prop opened at 66 on fanduel it opened

it's now sitting like 72 uh fanduel slop are, are you drinking the Kelsey Kool-Aid here? I feel like the line's kind of just been blowing up. Yeah, and I can't do it. I mean, I want to, but I can't. I'm going to have so much Kelsey love in my house because of my daughters. So it doesn't – you know what I mean? Like I don't need it. You got enough of that already?

Yeah, we're already over the legal limit. Oh, man, that's fair fair Yeah, it's kind of tough Let's hear it, this is a new question Javon Kinlaw 15,000 to score a touchdown Seems like a good spot to get his first one He's going to play I got Javon Kinlaw thoughts

He's going to play maybe 30% of the kinlaw thoughts i mean he's going to play maybe 30 of the snaps so um you know not it's not great um but hey yeah knock yourself out buddy i got a lot of 30s in college i turned out fine um let's hear jeff where do you fall in the anthem uh you know the birds are chirping lean over haven't got any anything official though so she's gone comfortably under right the oliver like stuff i and i know it's been like it's been bet out because it was like it opened low 80s now and again it's like historically low because you're typically like you know two minutes two minutes and change so this is still super fast but yeah i don't know yeah Yeah, some people say it's right around there. I don't know. I don't even know who Reuben McIntyre is.

Country singers, you want to go over, no? I always thought country singers over, they're more patriotic. Last year, though, we had a country singer, right? I forget his name. I think it went under. It went under, but it was 35 seconds

more than this. Yeah, I don't know. I think think they stripped him of his he's not a real country singer it's you know you're going under older than my grandmother i just looked her up she is old as she's old but she is going to be taking two minutes up there i mean she's not going to be able to croak out under 90 she's not trying to stay up there. No. Yeah, maybe you guys are right. Maybe this is her last hurrah. All right, Darren, use Jack, first 49er to reach 25 yards, 30 to 1. That is hot. That's the way to play.

I don't know, but that's fun. That's an exciting prop for sure. Let's see here. Jeff, last kicker prop of the year. Moody over one and a half field goals made. I don't know. I think last kicker prop of the year. Moody over one and a half field goals made. I don't know. I think he's probably going to miss one. I bet on him to miss one.

But he's going to get a lot of attempts, I think. Maybe two, three attempts. So we'll see. What about a doink? A doink? Yeah, you can bet on a doink, right? What are the odds? Yeah, that hit last year.

I'm pretty sure. I'm almost sure it was like plus four something i feel like that should be more yeah no it should be more like it was like no matter what you bet that for it there's it's not enough i mean yeah like if you when you really zoom out and think about what you're betting on a man to kick a ball and to hit a you know like that's like what are you doing yeah it seems cool though that's so good uh can there's a sand yeah let's hear eight to one that still feels like you should get more still short yeah yeah it's still a little bit light um let's see here usher's first song loving this club plus 650 seems like stealing

if you're in canada or if you have access to an offshore dm me and i will dm you what the first and last song are in a halftime show you can win your prop pool you can't bet a shit on it in america so it doesn't really matter um but i don't want a banger of a song though it's a banger of a song so yeah well yeah it's not loving my club i'll tell you it's, it's not loving my club. I'll tell you, it's not, it's not that as the first song or last song, but I'm sure he'll play it. Let's see here. We got a couple more comments here. No shit.

Connor has no idea. Reba is apparently culture isn't allowed in Chicago. Yeah. You know, country music is culture. Yeah, for sure. Let's see here.

Pretty old. It was like 23 years old. People don't realize Connornor's so young i'm definitely not 23 but yeah i'm i'm not quite as old as reba either um i mean reba is legitimately reba is legitimately as old as my grandmother i'll say that she's like you know like she's pretty close any purdy ticks i feel like you'd be a pretty russian guy you're not into that i i don't know i don't want to root for him to do anything. So,

if it's rushing yard, I'm out. I like Purdy over longest would be the way that I like Purdy. What is that? Seven and a half. I'm going to do this, but I don't want to root for him to do it. I don't want to be happy when he does it.

Put it that way. It's going to be a third down do it. I don't want to be happy when he does it, put it that way. I'm going to be like, shit. It's going to be a third down and 15. They're going to have the place shift out. Some guys are going to fall down, and he's going to take off for 20. Yeah. You know, KC plays a good amount of man, you know, those types of things. So, yeah.

That's a great look, actually. I like that. The longest one because, you know, I feel like that's like he's either going to have one that's like 8 to 10 yards on like a third and 8, something like that. Or he might run wild. He might just never run. Like, I mean, his line all year is like 6 yards, 7 yards. And then he has one good game, and now it's like 12, 13. Yeah. He has two design runs all season.

They're not calling runs for him. It's a break the pocket and go. You're betting on 13 scramble yards from like the whitest dude ever. So, I mean, it's just, yeah, brutal. All right. Plus 1400 octopus for anyone. Player specific would be crazy odds. What is that?

Player to score a touchdown and then get the ensuing two-point conversion. I feel like Kelsey would make sense there. And that might be it. Maybe CMC. Yeah. Pacheco, right? Scores a rushing. Yeah. But check out, right. Scores are rushing. Yeah. Yeah.

I don't think that like, I just have a hard time seeing them go like, uh, you know, back to back. Yeah. Imagine two design targets for Noah Graham. And my God, what a world we'd be living in.

Um, Noah Graham VP at that point. I'll never see it coming. Oh my God. It doesn't count as a reception on the, on the two pointer either. So that actually, it coming. Oh my God. It doesn't count as a reception on the two-pointer either. It's even better. Bobby Big Wheels,

do I actually know the first song? Yeah, I know I actually know the first song, of course. Yeah, someone already DMed me too. It was Todd, wasn't it? It's hilarious. Okay, well, cool. That's all the questions we have, but I know we ran an hour and 10 minutes. This is just just so fun this is exactly what I wanted

All the off the wall stuff Again we appreciate it as always subscribe Wherever you're listening move the line in the podcast feed 444 bets on the YouTube channel again Connor And I will be picking up here Shortly with the offseason stuff probably draft Heavy out the gates but again we'll talk about coaching changes all the futures and those we will have an episode

every single week um thanks thanks big dog in the chat uh dropping some stuff here at the end um yes uh slop um much appreciated my man we've enjoyed this has been an absolute blast and you're bringing your slop army to the 444 streets as well and tell people they can continue to follow you. Hey, you made me some money on Jonathan Kaminga the other night. They could follow you and continue to make some money on the NBA and maybe LOL as well. Dude, odd jam, odd jam, odd jam, dude.

The fancy optimizer is what I'm using for prize picks. I'm dead serious. It sounds ridiculous ridiculous but it it definitely works dude come get it go arb with slop and uh do all the things you can do with i don't know if i can do the arms i want to gamble like i'm saying i'm good with the arms like it's guaranteed money if you're into that but like i i'd rather have like a side yeah you got a big old bankroll and you can push some money around and you can get down yeah It's guaranteed money if you're into that, but like, I, I'd rather have like a sign. Yeah. You got a big old bankroll and you can push some money around and you can get down.

Yeah. It's an option. So, all right. Everyone's gonna be jumping in Connor's DMS to get the, uh, the usher takes. So, uh, I'm sure he's already, already fighting them off. So, um, we appreciate you hanging out again. Like you guys make the show really, this is a full,

we'll we'd be doing this without you uh but it'd be way less fun and uh you know we thank you very very much for your time giving us a an hour at least of your week every week of the season we appreciate it again hoping to run it back uh the same crew next year so for connor and slop i'm ryan we'll see you all very soon. Thanks, everyone.