Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 1 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: September 8, 2023

Welcome to our expert analysis of NFL Week 1 2023 Player Prop Bets! Dive deep into the top picks, predictions, and odds for the upcoming games. We spotlight Anthony Richardson's performance potential and break down the best prop bets surrounding him and other top NFL Stars.But that's not all! Discover insights on other key players like Khalil Herbert and matchups that could make or break your NFL props betting game this week. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the NFL prop betting scene in 2023, our comprehensive guide is tailored to give you the edge. 0:00 Intro5:14 Khalil Herbert Week 1 Prop Bet6:50 Chris Godwin Week 1 Prop Bet9:56 Alexander Mattison Week 1 Prop Bet13:45 Michael Pittman Week 1 Prop Bet20:08 David Njoku Week 1 Prop Bet23:44 New Orleans Saints Week 1 Props We Love31:00 Jayden Reed & Dak Prescott Week 1 Prop Bets34:06 Plus-Money Prop Bet42:47 Kenneth Walker Week 1 Prop Bet47:49 Connor’s Close Out49:51 Slop’s Send Off52:36 Noonan’s Namaste Tackle Props1:01:06 Outro Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

and welcome to the line drop drop show presented by fan duel sports Sportsbook. I am Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is through player props. We are live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday on the 444Bets YouTube channel, giving you our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite look is for week one. Or if you have thoughts on the play, feel free to ask. We'll give you our feedback and try to get to as many as possible at the end of the show. Joining us live on YouTube is your best chance to get the same number, same price on these plays that we are putting out here. If you prefer the podcast feed, it's going to be

in your podcast feed probably on Friday nights. Subscribe to both the podcast and the YouTube channel so you do not miss the show. You can support this free content by subscribing. It goes a long way in helping us continue to bring the very best content and tools in the industry here at 444. So just take a second, share the show, click the button. It goes a long way.

Joining me here, as always, from Vegas, Connor Allen. How we doing, buddy? Doing great. Live in Planet Hollywood right now. I'm feeling great after last night. Thankfully, a middle-of-the-day show today. Not an early morning one. That can be kind of rough. Wasn't feeling too hot this morning. Also, we have all day clear tomorrow. So, pumped to be here. One of my favorite shows of the week, always. Love it. Very responsible. Waking up early from Vegas after a Thursday night and a long night at the craps table.

So good on you. Last year, people wouldn't remember necessarily. They didn't know what happened. Connor scrambled to get to the place on time. Got messed up with time zones and all sorts of stuff. So we were a little bit late going live in week one because Connor was not as prepared. But, you know, year older, year wiser. And I really appreciate and respect that about you.

Comes from the heart. People don't forget, Connor. They don't forget, Slop. No, no, no. Our voice is hopefully familiar to you and really excited about this one. Joining us every week in the space is a man who's already decided that he's going to win every bet he makes on Sunday, which is really exciting for you. You can find him on Odds Jam and on Twitter at Slop Rules. It is our friend, John Hyslop. Slop, we talk betting and picks and stuff all the time for a

couple of years now. Really excited to finally get you on and do this weekly stoked to have you my man welcome to the show i'm glad to be here man you two are two of my favorites in this space fun knowledgeable i mean what's better than that you know what i mean appreciate that buddy excited to do this every week it's going to be uh hopefully unique content for you again like we are going to do our best uh again these we know how the prop market works if you're here watching a prop show you're very very familiar uh that this is a volatile Market we are going out of our way here to make sure that these are not stay aligned we're not telling you something that we played on Monday that's now long dead to brag about our CLV our goal is to make sure that we can get the same line and same price to as many people as possible while we're live here.

So, again, live is the key. Hang out with us. Again, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Two episodes of Move the Line each week. On the edition of the Prop Drop here on Fridays, our game preview show, Connor, myself, Sharp Clark, goes live on Wednesdays at 3 p.m. Eastern. It's also a great time to scoop up the betting sub. It's where Connor and I put all of our plays out into our discord for our subscribers. All the content that is possible and done over at four for four is included in the betting subscription. So all the tools, every article

ranking you're playing DFS, you know, we got Daigle and TJ still cranking out great DFS content. All that is in there as well. And again, the discord is really wanting where you want to be four for four.com slash plans is where you can get the betting sub right now limited time offer next handful of people or so we got a little bit of i'm not sure exactly what the count is the next few for subscribing you get a hundred dollar gift card to fanatics to subscribe to the betting sub so you're basically getting it for half off you're gonna buy yourself something this year at fanatics, head over there, take advantage of it. Four for four.com slash plans. If you miss that and you're late, just DM us DM the house account. Connor and myself,

uh, we'll get you a discount code or you can just use the promo code prop drops. That's the live Connor. Yep. 25% off prop drop, baby. Let's get it. Dude, you can do both. Use the promo code propDrop, 25% off, get it for cheaper, and you're going to get a $100 gift card. So you're going to get really like – it's like a $300 deal for like less than $100. So take advantage of that, 444.com slash plans. All right. We're going to go all over the place, try to keep it fluid.

We're going to have some stuff that we all like. We'll get some thoughts on some of the stuff that, you know, the other guys like here as well. I think we're going to maybe have some ladders. I think maybe we'll have some same game parlays or at least some discussions around that. I'm going to get to some tackle stuff later in the show. We're going to do all we can to give you guys the goods here every

week. Connor floor is yours. First play for week one. Yeah. My first play of the official new move the line prop drop. I'm going with Khalil Herbert over 49 and a half rushing yards. This has seen some steam downwards. And honestly, I personally just don't get it.

If you're looking at a guy here who is very clearly locked up all the early down work for Chicago, was playing the starters with Chicago, was great last year, according to all the metrics. Now he's going to match up in Green Bay. Green Bay was dead last and run defense EPA per play last year. And if we look at the two games against Chicago against Green Bay last year, they ran the ball a shitload. They knew that that's their weakness.

Now, obviously, Chicago was really run heavy as is, but they know that that was Green Bay's weakness. They ran it 27 and 25 total times. And the running backs combined for 160 yards on 19 carries in their first game, then 82 yards and 17 carries. So you're getting me Khalil Herbert probably, I don't know, 12 to 15 carries in this spot here. I think he goes well over 50 yards. I like the ladders here. I played some 75 plus at like plus 390. I played some 100 plus rushing yards. On top of that, absolute banger, 50 to one to lead the week in rushing.

Wow. Yeah. I mean, that is hot. hot he gets 17 18 carries against the screen bank defense and we are very live well where is that is it fanduel uh draft kings right now no fanduel ladders are available yet um hopefully soon okay i like that when we've been talking about that uh early in the week um you know i don't know i've been pegged as like a khalil herbert hater this year i think that's like down the road i just kind of like more so anything i'm pro roshan johnson as the season goes along but week one in this matchup against green bay as you laid out i like it what are your thoughts there slop i don't mind it i to be honest with you i hate the

running back ones because they're so hard they're like just very hard i'm the receiving guy so it kind of makes it the perfect team you know we got we got the running back with Connor and W receiver. Love it. I'll stay on the other side of the ball. We'll do as much of that as possible. Yeah. Try to tackle both of you guys. Everyone wins.

Slop, how about you? First play for you. What do you got? I've been looking at this one all day. So I work at OJJM, obviously, and they have a screen. And I've been staring at this screen. day. I work at Odds Jam, obviously, and they have a screen, and I've been staring at this screen. I can't even believe it exists. It's Chris Godwin.

Over 52.5 receiving yards at FanDuel right now. All the other books are at 55.5. Caesars is at 56.5. The DFS books are 57.5, 58.5. You can just go to FanDuel, since they're the lowest, and get him at 60 plus for plus 120 i just feel like that is unbeaten like for the games the situation they're going to be in right i think the box is going to get rolled and it's not going to be close and the

bike is just going to hammer them but at the same time that means that you know we're throwing the ball there is evans don't get me wrong but i mean it's it's evans and godwin and guess who's given up more receiving yards receivers in each of the last two years what team viking and it's only gonna get worse this year yeah i mean i get this baker mayfield i get on it but i mean it's 60 yards like that that's not very hard to get whenever you're talking about you know a negative game script like this even if it's not a negative game script guess what if they do get down there it's because of chris godwin probably so 60 plus plus 120 there's no chance that's going to be available later in the week i don't think yeah i like it connor i mean we've been like massively anti-box for the baker purposes but

when you think about like part of the handicap on the Vikings this season was Flores bringing in a new defense. He loves to blitz his face off. And when you've got a quarterback like Baker, I've got to get rid of the ball really quick anyway. I'm going to get blitzed. It's coming even quicker. I'm getting it to my slot guy. I don't have three and a half seconds to wait for Mike Evans to get deep down

field. I've got to get it out quick. That's Chris Godwin over the middle. You know, I haven't been thinking of anything pro-Bucks related, but I think Slott makes a good case. What are your thoughts? That makes a ton of sense. I like that handicap there.

I think maybe an Evans under, too, might be nice. But the issue I keep going back to, like, the Vikings defense is going to be so unbelievably bad. Like, I can't fade any passing game. I know it's Baker Mayfield and he sucks, like Slott said, but I can't fade him. So, like you're saying, someone's going to catch the ball. They're going to have some big plays, especially if they're bringing the house in Minnesota.

So a couple quick passes, Chris Godwin easily gets over 60. Or what happens if they sit back? You're up late in the game, second half, a couple scores. I mean, I don't know. I just feel like this is it. 60 yards is not's not much. Yeah. There's, there's outs for sure. All right. Well, I'm going to go back to where slot doesn't like, but I'm going to give you a same game parlay option. I'm going to stay in

the game and I'm going to go. Uh, it's another one. Connor and I were tossing back and forth. Uh, I don't really understand the Alexander Madison line to line to open um you can get over 55 and a half on points bet and minus 120 points that's hard for some people um there's a 57 and a half on fanduel at plus 102 which is really interesting draft kings has 75 plus alt line at plus 220 75 plus is basically where his total yards number is that's actually right in line with like where our rushing projection is for him this week as well. So I don't know. I just think there are like Madison doubters this season, but I also don't think for the

same reasons like Khalil Herbert. I just don't think Myles Gaskin and Ty Chandler are really eating into his week one role at all. The Bucs were a below average rushing team last year, worse than people think. They went out and used the first round pick on Kalijah Canty to help there. Kalijah Canty might not even play.

I haven't seen his Friday practice status yet, but he's been out so far. He's really not even like a big run stuffing, middle of the line space eater. He's more of like a get up the field to collapse the pocket press, you know, Aaron Donald's type pass rusher from the inside. You might not even play in this game.

So again, talking about some of the game script things that we anticipate here, I just kind of like the blend of opportunity and matchup at home for Matt Madison. I really think he, I think he probably gets there through the air as well. I think it's like 13 and a half. I mean, it actually is predatory that when you look at his rushing number and his receiving number, you can hit over on both and still fall short of his combined

rushing yards. Like you love how the books do that to you. So be careful with those things, but I don't know. It's a great spot for him. I like him quite a bit. I know the offensive line is a challenge at times too, but I just think he's going to get a pretty good workload. Slop, I know this is not your line of business, but any thoughts on Madison on the whole? I can see it happen. I mean, again, it's one of those things that goes back to game script too in that, you know, I mean, you can get helped out later in that game too if, you know, let's say you fall short early, you know, whatever happens with the Bucs defense, let's say like, who knows, but later in that game too if, you know, let's say you fall short early. You know, whatever happens at the Bucs defense, let's say, like, who knows? But later in the game, you get home, not a big total, not bad for me.

Two-leg same-game parlay. Chris Godwin over. Alexander Madison over in your rushing yards. And there you go. You know, plus 235 or something, hopefully somewhere that does decent odds booking. Probably should be like 260, but I don't know. I'm sure you can get plus 230 or something on that somewhere that does decent odds booking uh probably should be like 260 but i don't know i'm sure you can get plus 230 or something on that somewhere

hit alts on both parlay alts on both what do you think i can put a hand oh it went up to plus 122 right after i bet that smart Oh, okay. All right. Cooking Connor, any Madison thoughts? Yeah, I like it. You know, I, I've been citing my, my boots on the ground people and the, the boots on the ground people, you know, and the Viking side said that it's going to be Alexander Madison to start.

They don't necessarily love him, but again, this is a one-game bet. So, you know, I don't really care about the rest of the season. So a little sketchy and fantasy, but for betting purposes this week, I think it could be wheels up. Again, I think there's a lot of similarities to the Herbert thing where week one, I feel like we're okay. So, yeah. Again, a lot of you hanging out in the chat.

We appreciate it. Jump in there. Let us know what you're looking at for week one. We will get to it. It's our favorite part. Fire stuff in there. Something you like, something you want our thoughts on. Hit us with anything. We will circle back to that. Get to as many as we can with the time remaining. Connor, back to you for prop number two. Yeah. Prop number two. Also, shout out to Darren Summer here in the chat. Stale bread greater than stale lines. Yeah, that's true. No stale bread here, but either way, I agree. All right, my second one is going to be Michael Pittman did last year, but I'm coming in hot here. I think that Anthony Richardson and this Colts offense is going to run the piss out of the ball like an unbelievable amount. I think we're going to see fewer than 20 passes from Anthony

Richardson. I would not be surprised if Anthony Richardson has more rushing yards than passing yards in this game. And I know that is boiling hot, but again, boots on the ground. People said that Shane Steichen all off season was watching not NFL tape, not air raid tape, high school and college wishbone tape. They're going to load, put three guys in the backfield, be running misdirection, be running the ball as much as possible, taking advantage of Anthony Richardson's strength, which is athleticism, which is his size and not trying to throw the ball to Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce. I mean, I, for me, I think there's going to be such a little volume. And when he does throw the ball, they're going to have to throw it eventually, probably

unless it turns into a army Navy. You know, I think we're going to have to probably see a little bit more Josh Downs, maybe a little bit Alec Pierce. Maybe he gets three catches, maybe four, five catches to me. It just seems outrageous. Minusus 125 at FanDuel, minus 120 at DK. I love that a lot on the under. I think he's going to be the first look though. So that's the only problem, but I understand the point that you're making still has to be an accurate pass. It still has to be one of the catches. So there are some other issues that correlate to that going under. I'm interested in Anthony, not surprising. And it sounds like maybe you are too.

Get your thoughts on the Anthony Richardson rushing line. The Jags allowed the third most rushing yards to quarterbacks last season. And we're at 45 and a half on Caesars. A little juice to the over, minus 127. Rivers has 47, but a minus 117 uh MGM at uh 46 and a half and minus 115 are you interested in any of those plays looks like Pinnacle has a nice number two if you have access if you like the over 46 and a half minus 103 are you playing that as well does that correlate I'm waiting for the carries I want if we get six carries seven carries

eight carries I'm waiting for the carries because that's get six carries, seven carries, eight carries, I'm waiting for the carries because that's going to be just an absolute banger on the over. Because, I mean, I think that's what they're putting, 46 and a half rushing yards. Probably relates to about like seven, eight carries, I think. So, I mean, he's going to have, I'll say over 10 carries in this game. Okay.

Slop, where are you at on Anthony Richardson? He's been something we've discussed a lot this offseason. I would say look at the fan duel ladders. If you like him that much, it's going to be there. It's not up. I just checked right now. They don't have, from what I can see, they don't have a number for him rushing, but they will.

They can't hide forever. And when they do, your 50, 60, 70, I mean, those are all going to be in play, especially if you like his, his carries, which I do too. Like, I don't think they can trust that guy to throw the ball. So it's, they're going to have to do something. And yeah, I would run the ball if I were them. Yeah. I think to be clear too, Noonan and I all off season, I think, you know, Noonan's a little bit more bullish than him in the short term, but the long-term outlook is great. He could be Josh Allen. He has a cannon of an arm.

He's got a lot of, I guess, talent overall, but the tape was just so inconsistent, wildly inaccurate at times. Now, he didn't get any help at Florida. He should get more help at Colts, but from everything we're hearing, it seems like that's not in the early plans for them just to run a spread or anything like that and not in the early plans for them just to run like, you know, a spread or anything like that. And like, you don't have easy pitching catch.

I think it's going to be a lot of, you know, probably just run, run. And then like a 60 yard pass attempt. Like that's probably what we're going to see. I've literally been on two different shows today and both shows. Somebody took Richardson over 45 and a half rushing yards.

I mean, that's just, there it is. You know what I mean? Yeah. That's a sign. That's a sign that's a sign I mean they're trying to tell us something here's the thing though I don't think we see that number again like 45 and a half that's another way to kind of look at it it's like what is it going to

be week two like will it be 70 something you know because I I think it could like that's not that crazy just because like again like we don't know what they're going to do it's not like we've seen this before so that's when you take your shot on those ladders. So hurry up, Vanduul. In my mind, Anthony Richardson's lines being above Justin Fields, not just above 20 yards higher than Justin Fields is like egregious, like the most ridiculous line I've ever seen as an opener ever, maybe. And so like, that's just exactly, I can't imagine in a scenario where if Anthony Richardson, how about this, Anthony Richardson comes out and throws for like 250 yards,

I'll wear a clown outfit on next week's show. I mean, it's just not happening. Like it is literally not happening. Look, I think he was egregiously misused at Florida. I think the first year will be a rocky road. I've made this case. They asked him to just basically run over dudes or throw over the top there were no easy layups schemed into that offense he was asked to throw to the boundary and 15 plus yards down the field with really

no NFL caliber talent a wide receiver so he wasn't really asked to do the things I think he's going to be asked to do at the next level I believe in Shane Ste things I think he's going to be asked to do at the next level. I believe in Shane Steichen. I think he's going to scheme layups for him eventually. I think that'll be RPO looks to Josh Downs. I think it'll be RPO looks to Michael Pittman in the season. But yeah, I don't know.

I'm interested in the rushing yards with you and the carries with you as well. So yeah, I don't want to be like carrying the torch for anthony richardson but i'm uh i'm definitely more bullish in the short term i now i'm very very much well i'm now i'm just i want the clown suit so yeah let's say i'd be here in the chat omg i want to see this clown outfit yeah i don't have it yet but i will buy one i'll go out clown outfit no Clown outfit? No, but I'll go to whatever, Party City or, you know, there's the Halloween stores are starting to pop up. So I'll rock the clown outfit on air. All right.

That's a strong, strong Anthony Richardson take. All right, Slot, back to you. Second play for you. All right. So this one, I'm not, this could go poorly, but I don't think it's gonna. I don't think it's going to. I don't think it's going to at all.

Talking David Njoku over 33-and-a-half receiving yards. I think this is another game script play. I don't think he's that bad. I think he is what he is, but 33-and-a-half yards is kind of low. Went 59-and-a-half last year against the same Bengals team. Well, most of the same. I think we're going to see scores go back and forth. They're going to need to throw the ball.

I've been waiting all day to see an Elijah Moore number, and I think I see one now. We got one, yeah. But I don't – 32.5, 31.5. The thing with Njoku is he's 33.5 at FanDuel, 35.5 everywhere else. It looks like Pinnacle's got 36 and a half so everybody's pretty much higher than FanDuel so you can do that little old school trick and go 40 plus and that'll end up getting you hang on I'm finding it now that's why I think that was plus 124 so grab a few bucks like that but again it's more's more of a – they're going to throw the ball. I think Deshaun Watson is kind of back now.

I mean, it's a whole offseason like he's back. It's not the distractions that he had going on last year. Again, 33.5 yards. Come on, guys. What do you think about the reception, Slav? Because I had that written down too. Because I'm looking at 2.5. Oh, it's minus 175 though.

I mean, that's tough. That's tough, because I do like the receptions, but... Do we have another... Yeah, the only problem with him is there's those red zone catches that limit the... They limit the yardage, you know what I mean? He catches a two-yard touchdown pass. I mean,

come on. Yeah, they do, like, they kind of... Honestly, I think they might use him like Kadarius Tony. You know, like, they try and, like, give him those, like, swing passes and, like, random, like – they kind of – honestly, I think they might use him like Kadarius Toney. They like try and like give him those like swing passes and like random like gadgety shit, right? They'll try and throw it off his hands into the other – That was the worst performance by the way I've ever seen. That was unbelievable. That was unreal. Like think about this.

Like Sky Moore should be getting all kinds of shit today. And, like, he's not. Because Darius Toney was so much worse. It wasn't even funny. Like, that was just historically bad. See, but the issue is that at least Darius Toney was getting open and getting some targets, like, because he barely played. I mean, he ran, like, you know, whatever.

It was, like, 15 routes or something like that. And then maybe 12 routes, I think, and, like, a couple like a couple targets sky more was on the field like every play and saw like a seven percent target share and when he did get targeted he still didn't catch it so i mean he sucks too it would have been it would have been like great catches two of them would have been like i'm gonna say great good cat it's not like dwight clark but i mean it's like there would have been nice catches but both hands guys both guys, both hands. It hit both hands. Didn't pull it in either time. It's like really, I don't know.

But anyways, yeah, Njoku. Njoku. Back to Njoku. We got back there somehow. Yeah. Yeah, I like the Njoku play too. I think he's going to be heavily involved. Like you said said nice rapport last

year when he was uh out there with deshaun watson um yeah no no problem with that whatsoever um and pretty low threshold so uh feel good feel good about the uh the tight end love that you have uh so far this week so always love yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna go back to some other titan i i'm i'm in a weird spot where some of these things don't necessarily correlate, but I like a lot of Saints action this week. Some of it you can't, because of the way that they actually are, you can't same game parlay all of this. Maybe there's a book that's generous.

Maybe our friends here at FanDuel will allow us to do some of this when they come fully to market on what they have out there. But there's a handful of things I like with the Saints, and I'm just going to run through them to be honest. Well, first of all, Slop and I are both on Juwan Johnson. I like that one quite a bit, 27.5 receiving yards. I mean, Derek Carr is telling his brother to draft Juwan Johnson in fantasy. That seems like a good indicator.

The Titans allowed the third most yards, a little over 1,100 receiving yards to tight ends last year. The third most targets to tight ends as well. Basically running it back in the back half. So there's nothing schematically that should be changing too, too much. I also really like Chris Olave to have, I think maybe longest reception is how I would want to go after Olave. We don't think of Derek Carr this way. He had the third highest ADOT in the league last year. He likes to take deep shots. That's how Olave wins. And that's how the Titans lose. Often they had allowed the ninth highest explosive pass rate in the league. I think they're 24 and a half out there on Olave. Derek Carr, I think is going to throw the ball a lot.

Teams threw the ball 68.2% of the time against the Titans last year. This is the highest rate in the league. They don't want to really run against Simmons in that front. So teams often just kind of lean heavily on passing attempts. And Carr, especially with limited running backs here, with it looks like Kendra Miller out. We know that Alvin Kamara is out. We're going to have more Taysom Hill involved than we want.

But I think you're going to see a fair amount of dropbacks from Derek Carr. But again, that doesn't correlate very well with my favorite play of the bunch. And that's Jamal Williams over 14 and a half rushing attempts. Someone has to run the ball, right? So like if I'm counting these, these rushing attempts, the number there and the passing attempts, we're still only at like 55, 50 plays, which is significantly below league average. So again, I mentioned no Kamara, no Miller. I just don't see how Jamal Williams isn't heavily involved in this game plan.

Over 14 and a half rushing attempts, minus 109 on Rivers. It's minus 115 on DraftKings, minus 119 on Caesars. Still waiting on the FanDuel line there, but it's minus 115 on draft kings minus 119 on caesars still waiting on the fan duel line there but like it's tony jones jr and kirk merit wow who's a real person those are the backup running backs behind jamal williams yeah i think it's a creative player i looked him up online it was just kind of a blank avatar so yeah i don't know yeah he played a bishop sycamore so again some of these are poorly correlated. I want to fully acknowledge that. But again, 31 pass attempts, 14 carries,

we're at like 40-something plays. They're going to run at least 50, 55. So there's still room within this thing for both of these things to happen. Again, Connor and I are a complete donkey here if you're talking about some things that are looking at overall passing attempts and rushing attempts for the same team. No, it's really narrow. So like,

like you said, like, what are we going to give the ball to Tony bones? Like 10 times, you know, I mean like, come on. I mean, you know, it's, it's going to be Jamal Williams. It's just a matter of like, we saw the Jags do it against the Titans where like, I think Travis Etienne had like eight carries and like no one else got the ball because the Titans were so good at run defense. They just said, fuck it. Like, we're just going to pass every play. That I think is a possibility. So that's my only concern is that they don't give him the run volume because he's going to run for like two and a half yards per carry against his Titans front.

Probably. I guess that's it. But everything else I think is totally sound. Like if the game just goes completely normal, like, you know, whatever neutral game script, no pick sixes off good areas, Tony's hands, Like they're just running, you know, normal offense. Williams probably gets 16, 17 carries. Carr probably gets 32, 35 attempts. It's Kinsing Kumbaya and you win both.

Yeah. Slop, I know I'm a donkey, but am I a donkey specifically for this take? No, I actually like doing stuff like this. That way everyone jumps on you and calls you a donkey and then it happened and you can just kind of flip it on them you know what i mean it's like who's the donkey now but no like i'm having a little bit of like ptsd from the time connor came into the thunderdome and he

beat me because he did i it was a three-leg parlay wasn't it same game it was with the eagles and they were playing the titans was that the titans that they were playing the Titans. Was that the Titans that they were playing? It was. It was. Yes. It was a team that could not stop the pass because they were so good to stop the run. He had, like, Jalen Hurts over our passing yards.

He had – I can't remember the other two. I'm sure you do, Connor. Yeah, it was Jalen Hurts, like, 300 passing yards because his line was, like, 220. And we know the Eagles. I mean, they just scheme, like, whatever the defense takes them so yeah and then it was like sanders under like whatever something like that correlated and it was an absolute banger so you're definitely kind of like that was gonna be our so i was gonna make a giant like nine leg parlay for sunday but it was really only

gonna be three legs because it's basically three situations does that make sense and the saints were one of those situations. And that way I could call it a nine-leg parlay, but in reality it's literally a three-leg parlay. So what were you thinking for the Saints? It was going to be literally who we just said, or Michael Thomas, depending on what ladder I could get Thomas at. But Thomas, I think, came out at 41, so it kind of ruined that for me. I would go with Olave at an elevated total than what he's at,

even though that's kind of crept up. I don't know what it opened at, but do you guys remember? Because I don't – It was high 50s, low 60s, yeah. Yeah, it's like in the mid-60s right now. So people are on that. So you take him with Juwan Johnson and Carr in the same game parlay and then you just find two other situations you like,

and you have a nice little line legger. So you've got the degenerate side, but it's also kind of smart. Everyone wins. Everyone wins. I love a nice casual nine legger. If you don't have one or two in the holster for Sunday. What are you doing? Come on.

It's football. Yeah. You're missing out. You only get so many weeks, guys, especially when I do on a week one, too, just to show your appreciation for being back because it's been a long summer. You know?

They forced you into dinger parlays. We need to show gratitude. I was actually enjoying them, too. That's the crazy part. It was bad, man. It's a of like the crazy part it's like like it was bad man weird guys keep uh it looks like uh james is dialed into the uh projected workload um to taste some hill and kendra miller projected to take 10 of the 25 carries in the game um i'm gonna i'm gonna wait until we get kendra miller officially ruled in or out um because that

makes me you know it doesn't look good but again if he's in that would give me a little cost concern cause for concern but like right now i'm not because i don't think kendrick miller is going to play but we'll we'll have to wait and see so um i mean yeah tasem hill is going to be annoying for sure but i you know i don't think he's taking like actual running back carries he's going to take jet sweeps and some random BS that's always frustrating to watch when it happens. So, all right. Keep jumping in the chat. Let us know some of the other stuff that you like here.

Connor, third pick. Yeah, I had one that I have a bunch. Whoa, look at this. Look at this. We already got the clown. Yeah, if you're not watching on YouTube, We have the clown already up for Connor's face, which. Oh,

I haven't played a snap yet. This bum's going to throw over less than a hundred yards and I'm already getting the clown emoji out here. Come on. Oh, Sal. That's brutal. I love it though.

I love it. So. Yeah. Not creepy. No, I'm just going to talk about a couple plays that I think are interesting for my kind of third one here. I'm waiting on Jaden Reed lines.

Christian Watson announced out, and Brian Sullivan talked about it in the chat with Watson out, Green Bay and wide receiver flux. Dillon overrushing, has to be committed to the run. I'm not sure they have to be committed, but they probably will anyways. I think that we're going to see a lot of Jaden Reed, a lot of Romeo Dobbs. I'm interested in those lines. I mean, what are you going to, what are we going to like 40, maybe that might be too high on read, but like three and a half receptions, four receptions.

I mean, all those are interesting to me. So that's one that I'm like, you know, really waiting for, but I'm not, I'm not really sure, honestly, like what we're going to see at that one. So that's, that's a big one. I have written down other, another one, uh, Dax pass attempts under, I know you got some lines there, but I need to do a little bit more math and kind of make sure that it's a good play. Cause we're seeing like 33 and a half, 34 and a half.

I've talked about all off season, but I think they're going to be massively run heavy compared to what we saw before. Um, you know, they were like 21st in pass right over expectation last year with Dak. I think that probably falls like 30th and they got a pretty nice matchup against the giants where they should be able to do whatever they want.

So I think the attempts under is a pretty interesting look too. But have not played either of those officially, you know, hop in the discord. If you want the official place, a little shout out to us. Yeah. So we want to be four for four.com slash plans,

promo code prop drop. You're going to get a hundred dollar gift card as well. Prop drops going to save you 25%. It's a win win. And now when Connor gets to turn the lights on in that play, you'll have it. You get a push notification. All right, Slop. Connor, is that it?

You're just doing three? Do you have anything else you want to get to? I don't know what we're – what do I know? I don't even know what we're doing here. No, yeah. I tried changing up the show sheet a little bit, and I think we're just going up off the wall here. So I think we're just bouncing all over the place.

Honestly, I have a couple other situations we can talk about but like we'll get back to you yeah in my defense i did not read the show sheet so same i just host the show and try to steer the ship so i definitely don't read the show sheet i will say that none of what we were talking about was on the show sheet so that's okay good yeah well there it is sal there was a show sheet yeah maybe i do deserve the clown emoji making a show sheet and then not even sharing with our producer i mean who the fuck am i right yeah there you go all right slop what else you got all right so i i want to apologize first because i really wanted to go with the jihad dodson take but man he came out at like 40 something i. I don't know what

I thought he was going to come out with, and so there is that, but I'm kind of scared that the Commanders might actually kill the Cardinals and then all this kind of like, he doesn't have a big game, but I think he could have a gigantic game. You know, for him like 80, 90 plus, you know what I'm saying?

It's pretty big whenever you're going to get a ridiculous ladder at FanDuel for something like that. I'm going to go with Gerald Everett. It's the same trick as before. He's 30 and a half at FanDuel. Everywhere else, he's a little bit higher. 32 and a half, 33 and a half, 34 and a half. You can just go with the 40-plus again,

and you're going to get that at plus 148. Here's the thing. It's a new offense. I think they're going to kind of want to show out first game of the season. The Dolphins, you've got a team that can score on them, so that helps a lot. Also, too, Herbert is not broken. I mean, I think literally he had broken ribs. He was missing a lung last year.

A lot of things were wrong with him. I think he's back. No more dump-offs to Eckler. Those balls got to go somewhere. Everett is kind of a physical freak still. And, I mean, I know there's a lot of mouths to feed. But, again, we're not asking him to set a record. You know, he's got to get 40 yards to get, you know, plus 140.

I mean, that's very doable in his wheelhouse. I think he does it. I think that's going to actually be a really, really fun game. So I'm hoping for it. But, again, Everett 40-plus, that feels good to me. Connor, are you going to find someone in your life that loves you, like Slop loves tight ends? You will be a very, very happy person.

I mean, this had to be just a brutal, brutal week for Slop. We got Kelsey out. We got Waller questionable. We didn't get Jonah gray either until like way too late. Like I was already at Bowling by the time I saw that there was, I got, I got a new thing where I'm not allowed to gamble. Like while I'm drinking,

I don't know if it's going to work and I don't think it's going to work, but like it might so yeah and uh i saw why i didn't take anything uh it's also watson who kind of feels like a tight end even though he's a i know he's a receiver but i didn't take him for the same reason so i'm already off to an oh and two star basically for that new rule i have i should have just not had it but yeah there's there's nothing worse than waking up after drinking while betting and being like, oh, boy, I bet a lot of shit that I did not need to bet. Because you have some drunk galaxy brain thought about some player. Then you wake up.

You're like, what the fuck was I thinking? It happens all the time, dude. Like literally every time. You're out with your buddies. And like I said, you get home. You go to bed. And then you wake up. Like half the time, I don't even realize until it's like 11. And you're like, your buddies and like i said like you get home you go to bed and then you wake up like half the time i don't even realize until it's like 11 you know and you're like oh shit like i i

did that you know what i mean like and then you go back in like what else did i do and sure enough there's more it's like oh god yeah i have a habit to do that with the pick'em sites like the uh you know prize picks underdog all them so then So then I just started like, like massively just throwing it in quick. Yeah. Like nothing like a little six, like goat whale nuke, you know, just like when I wake up and it's like, why did I put, you know, a couple hundred bucks on this? This is no shot of hitting. It's so fun to do though. It's so fun to play. I mean, I'll be honest with you. It's so fun.

You and your buddy just sitting there like, you know what? Yeah. Let's throw him in, throw him in before you know it. Like it's a genius move and it's just not uh it's always it's always better in the moments but if you could just again bottle that optimism in the moments and sell that uh you would be you'd be in a great spot so very rich yeah for everyone actually though it didn't cost me money last night just saying because i mean i was all over uh at least watson i Watson, the first one he caught, I was like, you've got to be kidding me. Like, it was like he covered in the one catch. I was like, I knew that was going to happen.

Yeah. I'm not going to lie. With those guys. We went off on a tangent there. What was your play, Jahan Dotson? I mean, we didn't even talk about that at all, to be honest with you. No, it was Gerald Everett. Gerald Everett.

My guys. Yeah, into Gerald Everett. Gerald Everett. Gerald Everett. My guys. Yeah, into Gerald Everett for sure. But I think that the Chargers offense is going to be elite. I want as many Chargers props as I can get. I think this is a little bit of a weird matchup with the Dolphins and Chargers. Talked about it on the Move the Line, the other show, a bit here just because the Chargers were like a little kryptonite against the

Dolphins last year and Dolphins with know vic fangio coming in you just get like strange i just feel like we don't we have a lot less certainty there than we normally would but i would say that maybe we get you know an under on gerald ever this time so we can bang overs the rest of the season you know i would do that too yeah i don't give up on my guys either i just put them on the list like they owe me money like i don't do a fade list at all. I think that's the dumbest possible thing you could do. I agree. It's the dumbest. Why am I fading this guy?

He can't pay me back. He owes me money. The only way he can get back to me is if I bet on him. I think you should Martin deal with it. You can never take his under after that because then if he goes over, now you hate him. You know what I mean? Now it's a problem. I don't know.

I just think, again, I think there's going to be a weird game. That's all I like. Everybody's going to kind of feast a little bit. But, like, dude, 40 yards. 40 yards isn't even feasting. You know what I mean? It's like a normal game. Yeah.

Four catches, 42 yards. Like, okay, that's good. And, Sal, if you've got that four for 42, clip that for me, please. 4 for 44. Oh, there you go. 4 for 44. 4 for 44, even better. Also clip that for me, too.

Try to make me say it, though, if you can. Slop, are you a Kyle Pitts guy? I mean, 35 and a half yards. No. I like him. I just don't like the situation he's in. Does that make sense? Like if he could be like ridiculous,

but he's not going to be in Atlanta unless something changes. He should be ridiculous, but it's pretty clear that they're not interested in using him that way. And hey, what do you do? Oh, shout out to our boy Kevin. Yep, 44. Turns 44 today. Kevin, a very lucrative NBA follow for our subscribers in the Discord.

Grinds fantasy hard as well. Yeah, shout out. Happy birthday, Kev. Nice work, Kevin. He should be in Vegas. Why is he not in Vegas? Yeah, I know. I think something happened.

He wasn't in Vegas. How do we know it's not me? He came last year, and Kevin and I had a wild time. I'll say that. He parties, so it's a lot of fun. Hey, don't get the guy in trouble, all right? Don't bust his trust. I'll say it.

Fellow Masshole as well. Oh, really? Nice. What's his name? Kevin? Yeah, Kevin O'Brien. Nice guy. Nice guy.

I'm going to follow him on Twitter. I need to make money on the NBA too. We all got to pay bills. He's really good. What do you got, Connor? I was going to say we got a little question here. Sam asks, Pickens over 42 and a half seems hella low. I think he also dropped Pickens' longest reception earlier maybe.

That was him, I think. Someone mentioned that. I think I would prefer longest reception. He's going to get his two, three shots. He catches one of them. He's making that. If not, then he's probably falling well short of the yards anyways, in my opinion.

I don't know. I'm not really a Pickens guy. Are you guys George Pickens? I don't mind I'm not really a Pickens guy. Are you guys a George Pickens deal? I'm a Pickett guy. Yeah. But the problem is it's San Francisco. I don't know. I don't like to mess with them, especially in the receiving.

I just don't mess with those games at all. Yeah. The under is one of our better projected plays on using our tool this week for Kenny Pickett. So I understand the hesitancy in week one, especially in the matchup. I'd rather lose money than bet an under. We'll let Connor carry that water for us. I love unders as much as slop loves tight ends. Let's just say that.

You love the under. The season ones, I let's just say that yeah you love the under the season ones I get that like you got you've converted me on the season ones and but the only problem is now I'm rooting for guys to get hurt I'm like what am I doing like I'm not what kind of person I am so it kind of puts you in a weird place like the guy's like hey towards ACL I'm like sweet I'd never be happy about that so I'm sorry if that's ever happened to anybody. Yeah, no, and then the under in the late-season matchups. I think it was you a couple years ago, whatever it was. It was probably 17 last week's season or whatever, and Josh Allen.

You had his under, and I was like, you know what? I'm going to. Because that's an over on how few minutes he's going to play, if that makes any sense. And sure enough, it happened. He went well under because he did not play at all in the second half, and we all won. So it felt good. That's one of the biggest edges late season.

It's just banging unders on these random sites that are posting full, regular game lines because they're just not paying attention. It happened last year with the Vikings, too. Yeah, that was you. Again, I did them on prize picks. i think i had like four guys from that game on price yeah yeah cook jefferson cousins and then uh i think there's one

other guy too cousins made a sweat oh my god he threw 250 in the first half or something like that yeah i was like guys like kind of relax buddy like yeah from a point here you get it i got one more and then uh we'll talk to see if you guys have anything else we'll get to some other questions uh this is another one that's uh you know a little bit unique we kind of blind bet in discord last year and there's a couple of blind bets that our uh subscribers did basically bet eagles over 13 and a half in the first half just every week and they just hit sometimes you would go over one and a half touchdowns plus money and it was just kind of like money in the bank that along with nick chubb

longest rush uh over 15 and a half consistently um i don't love this spot for chubb that number got beat up a little bit because our subscribers are back at it that's up to 16 and a half but i'm going to stay in the same lane i'm going to take kenneth walker over 15 and a half for his longest rush in this spot against the rams the rams are running out some sort of hybrid xfl cfl defense this year they're going to see how that works i have an idea how it's going to work it's not going to go very well um we had limited sample last year but we didn't see a lot of kenneth walker early in the season around like week four week five he started to get like meaningful carries 12 games down the stretch he topped this number in eight of 12 games and he was volatile right that's kind of why i like this with him instead because he

would go out and gas you for 30 and then like have negative five yards over like his next four carries he topped this in both of the matchups last year against the Rams. The Rams last year were significantly better against the run than I expected them to be. Bobby Wagner was like one of the most efficient linebackers in the league. He's gone. He's back in Seattle, so he'll be watching it on the other sideline. So I just think Kenneth Walker, again,

another guy who maybe at some point in the season loses some work, maybe in like third downs to Zach Charbonnet, but like week one, base down work, we're going to see Kenneth Walker and he's going to pop one off here. 15 and a half is a fairly low threshold for a guy that has kind of game-breaking abilities. This is minus 115 on DraftKings.

Also MGM, if you can get down there. Again, like we're waiting for FanDuel. Hopefully they pop a 14 and a half or something for us. But yeah, Kenneth Walker is going to break a big one. Again, we don't need him to do and sustain it throughout the whole game. We just need that one home run. Again, it's not even a home run. It's like a double slop, 15.5.

I don't mind that at all. I think that the Rams are like with that defense, it's like an undercover way of tanking. You know what I mean? Like they're not saying it. They're just pretending they're not tanking. But I think they're going to be terrible. Iing, but I think they're going to be terrible. I really do. I think they're going to be very, very bad.

I think something's really wrong with Stafford and Cooper Cupps already. I just think it's over for them. They need to rebuild and they know it. It's literally Aaron Donald and then a bunch of your cousins

slop. It's literally no one. No one is out there i mean i actually have two cousins that play for them is a a bunch of day three or undrafted guys it is going to be a disaster for them defensively even if stafford's good yeah even if like he like resurrects cooper cop or like makes two two at well a thing or whoever else is there. I don't think she is either. Every single out for them, it's like, yeah, no. You don't even hit them the next one. You're like, dude, they don't have any. Are they going to win

a game? Yeah, I like this bet here, Dalton. Rams' lowest points scored this week. I mean, look, we have the Cardinals against the Commanders. Their team total is 14.5, and I'm not sure how they score 10 points, but the Rams could be close. I mean, they're in that range too.

Yeah, I don't know. They moved. That line moved massively yesterday. It moved from like 5.5 to 4 over the course of an hour. People were like hammering the Rams. Can anyone explain that to me? Sharp Clark likes the Rams. I need someone to tell me why

they like the rams i know you two don't but like jump in the chat let us know if you like the rams if you understand why that line moved from five and a half it hung out there all summer at five and a half and six nothing's changed cooper cup is now not playing and it moved to four i i'm like dumbfounded yeah yeah i don't know i don't know if Higby big game You know Hey that's your boy Get in there What's he going to do

I'll give a little Closing line value circle jerk here I think the under on Stafford For ourselves at 240 that's like 219 Now and honestly I would Still consider under like you're telling me Puka, whatever, Tutu Atwell and Skronic or whatever, Van Jefferson, like these bums are going to get 220 yards?

No. No. These end up with like 150, 175 yards. Higby goes for 90 plus. That's about it. I love this bit. Week one bit is fantastic. It's great. It's great.

It's great. Dalton Cates, by the way, said slop should be canceled. Sorry, slop. Week one and you're out, I guess. It happened. I had a good run. I had a good run. Check's in the mail.

We appreciate it. Connor, you got some other things you said you wanted to highlight real quick? And then we'll kick it a slop. I'll run down some tackles. And we'll jump and see what anyone else has here in the chat. Yeah, if we can get a Devin Singletary rushing receiving under, it would be awesome. That's another fun one. Brian Robinson overs. I've been dabbling with that.

You know that I – I like both of those. I like the Singletary carries under five and a half. Is that what it is? Yeah, and his rushing yards is posted those yeah it's like 19 though you know how many times i got burned on these like backup bums that like i know rip off one carry you told me every single time you're like why are you betting on these guys why are you betting these guys and i just couldn't help myself because i'm like he's

gonna see like two carries like what do i do and then he sees three carries and breaks like a 10 yard run and i lose that's what happens yeah i, I lose. That's what happens. Yeah. That's what happens when you bet unders, Slop. That's what happens when you bet unders. You never bet the unders. Even if it's the right move. Even if you're going to win. It's almost always the right move, but I'm with you. I have to really talk myself into it.

It's harder for me. I'm trying to watch the game, too. I mean, this is about entertainment for me as well. I mean, you want to win. Don't get me wrong. Everybody's competitive. It's a money thing, too. I mean, this is about entertainment for me, you know what I mean, as well. Like, I mean, you want to win. Don't get me wrong. Everybody's competitive. You know, it's a money thing too. Everyone wants to win.

But once you get your bankroll kind of set and you know, you know, what kind of better you are, now it's about action, you know, because you've been to the public show, you've seen all the strings, you know, this works. And it's just like, give me some action. The last thing I want to do is sit down and be like, yeah, all right, guys, don't score. Like, yeah, that sucks. Like, don't score. Like, that sucks. Like, you ever watch a game with under guys? It's like, dude, I hate you people.

Like, this is so stupid. Every time something good happens, like, throw the flag. Or, you know, it's like, dude, like, stop. I bet the Noah Gray under yesterday. And, oh, my God, it was the worst sweat of my life. I mean, that literally three missed tackles on that play. And he for like 20 yards and we want we ended up winning by two yards he didn't get past the rest of the game shout out to sky more shout out to cadareous tony for being what you've won on that under i won on the under under 33 and a half you had 32 i thought i saw

way lower maybe i was drinking a bowl so maybe there's that but like i thought it was like way lower than that all right so i was only all-1 then on the ones that I didn't take. See, there you go. Yeah, so it worked. The longer you stay on the show, the better the number gets. Perfect. Any other looks, Slop, that you want to share with the folks that you're maybe something's not out or whatever you got?

The only one that I'm waiting on is I want to see the Baltimore receivers. It looks like we've got – one that I'm waiting on is I want to see the Baltimore receivers. It looks like we've got Andrews. Obviously, we like him. I want to see what Bateman comes out at. I want to see what Zay Flowers comes out at. A lot's been made about the Munkin

move over there. They're not in that Greg Roman thing where he's just going to run, he's going to throw the ball more. Let me see what those numbers come out to. I bet you Bateman, I don't think he's that bad. I mean, we haven't seen a lot of him. He's been hurt, but I don't know that he's not that bad. And at the same time with Flowers too, I mean, a lot of hype coming out.

Let's see it. But I mean, those numbers are going to have to be low. And like I said. I mean, we can get some numbers in like the 30s, I think, those numbers are going to have to be low. And, like I said. I mean, we can get some numbers in, like, the 30s, I think, for all three of them. And I think kind of like the Chiefs receivers last game, I said in our chat, you could reasonably hit the alt over on, like, literally anyone.

Just pick your favorite. Hit, like, 50-plus, 60-plus on all of them. And I think you'll probably come out ahead. Yeah, one of them probably wins. Yeah, no, exactly. Just do two of them, really. I mean, just find two do the whole uh give me give me one but uh i i would i bet you bateman i bet you he does something like i said

again not a record but dude when you're looking you're diving in the you know the dumpster there like for number like dude looking at 30 something yards like come on it's not that hard to do jimmy ward out as well for the texans the back half um one of their you know better signings this offseason coming over from san francisco with demico ryan so yeah the secondaries beat up a little bit too uh don't uh don't hate that at all so gonna be an interesting game i'm interested to see like our thoughts around what we are perceiving the monken offense to be and how that really kind of plays itself out in in week one again you know small sample theater don't jump to massive conclusions but it's going to be interesting

to see for sure i like to jump into massive conclusions after week one that's the that's my favorite part of the season it's just it's so fun just go in yeah confirmation bias what happened sometimes you come out the other side but a lot of times you don't but you make a lot of friends along the way so that's yeah i don't know if you make a lot of friends along the way. So that's funny. Yeah. I don't know if you guys heard, but Jameer Gibbs passed away last night, and he's no longer eligible to be drafted, no longer eligible to be bet on. He doesn't exist anymore.

I mean, he's basically a bust. Like, literally, that's what Twitter's told me. So it's done. It's done. You know, it's a fact. All right. I'm guessing we probably have some slop some slops audience here slops audience might not be aware but we like to dabble here and by we it's

mostly me because i have a problem it started kind of as a bit last year joking with connor like you know what i'm gonna bet on this guy to get a bunch of tackles this week and uh it evolved into this uh this process that uh now leads me to literally projecting anyone who's going to get even somewhat meaningful snaps uh projecting what their tackle number is going to be because at first it was like hey i like these handful of guys and then the books wouldn't post any of those guys and i'd have uh you know a bunch of options and i had no idea what to think of these guys so i bet tackles um and i love it our subscribers love it and it has been a very lucrative a little endeavor for us so there are um tackles are posted on draftkings

on caesars on bet rivers and bet mgm really desperately need our friends here at fanduel to get in the mix and start giving us some tackle props they dabbled in the super bowl a little bit in the playoffs but fanduel we giving us some tackle props. They dabbled in the Superbowl, a little bit in the playoffs, but Fandle, we want regular season tackle props here. There are none posted currently, but again, I have projections and some of the things that go into the projections are matchup specific. Like you would do any,

any way that you would handicap normal offensive plays, you know, linebacker performance against the team, et cetera. We also have scorekeeper data. Literally this is subjective. Oh, my God. Who gets to tackle is up to whoever's keeping score at the place. I have three years of scorekeeper data, home and road splits. That's going to be the most degenerate thing I've ever heard.

I love that. That is so good no you need that though you know you're not wrong I'm not laughing at I'm more just like yep you are really going in I like it we need that for NBA too if you got an NBA guy for assist and rebounds because that's a whole thing too yeah that's the thing it's there's a subjective layer too right that was the whole like uh Triple j thing defensive player of the year people were saying like triple j's stats are uh you know baked at home where like he was getting like tip balls getting blocks and steals and defend like tip passes and stuff like yeah there's a subjective piece to

like when you watch a game you look hey that, that was a solo tackle. Some places are like, no, that was an assisted tackle with these two guys. Some people are like, no, that guy was there first. Even though he didn't bring him down by himself, he gets the tackle. So scorekeeper data matters, especially at the tails. So we want to take advantage of it whenever we can. A couple of matchups that I'm looking at this week based off of what we're expecting to see here. So our boy 4A Aluakon, he back-to-back league leader in tackles. Great matchup against the Colts. Connor has already talked about,

we expect them to be very run heavy. Linebackers against Shane Steig and Zeagles last year averaged 22.1 tackles and assists per game last season. That was one of the highest marks in the league. And it's also one of the best scorekeeper matchups as well. Row teams in Indy averaged 25.9 assists per game. That is 4.3 more than league average. So if we're going to get like 8.5 or 9.5 on a LuaCon, we're going to jam the over.

Next is Cole Holcomb. He's going to be getting every down linebacker snaps for the Steelers. I think we maybe get like a six and a half on Holcomb. I got him for like 8.3. He's going to wear the green dot, and that matters. That's the guy on the defensive side that is headset with the defensive coordinator who kind of calls the plays. He's going to likely rotate in and out a little bit,

but I have him at 90% snaps. He probably plays like 95, so I want to go conservative. Great matchup against the Niners, who give up a ton of tackles to linebackers, and the Steelers also have one of the most generous scorekeepers in the game consistently the last three years. Very generous scorekeeper, especially for the home guys. Cole Holcomb, we're going to look for that number.

Kysere White is now the starting linebacker in arizona uh he's moved over from philly with jonathan ganon who was the they were together in philly we know the game script here right like it's not going to be really good there's going to be a lot of carries for the commanders and great script there and then the commander scorekeeper dishes out the fifth most overall assist and the highest rate of assist per game to visitors at 27.3. White's probably going to be at 7.5. I'm guessing. I got him for a tad over 8.5.

Those are three that we're going to look for. Again, no numbers currently posted, but these guys should all be posted. They're main key starting linebackers for their teams. Books don't get cute. Give us these looks looks we'll have a handful of those most likely on sunday morning uh for our subscribers again at four for four and the betting sub so also looking at the linebacker duo for the niners and the linebacker

duo for the broncos our boy uh alex singleton our tackle king those will be looks that we're looking for so yeah uh those will again they'll be pushed out to our subscribers so get in there we don't mess around ron swanson said it best shout out to slop in his shirt you know never half-ass two things whole ass one thing i whole ass tackles uh we were going to make some money this season whole assing tackles all seasons that is let's go incredible incredible i thought you were literally out like insane when you first started doing this and uh now i have so much respect for it because first off i have no idea what you're talking about half the time and the other half the time i'm just so impressed with the data and everything you're pulling together i mean i'm also not saying you know you know don't don't record this it's

already recorded but i'm gonna say it anyways you know if you find me at some scorekeeper guy's house you know slipping him a 20 or you know a couple 20s just to rack up a couple of tackles here hey you never know boots on the ground baby whatever it takes i'm not proud of this but i think it needs to be said um i spent a wild amount of time on linkedin this offseason looking for these scorekeepers i was just i, it was Googling anything. I think I found the Cardinal scorekeeper. That was the only one that I really feel like I'm pretty sure this is the actual dude.

Didn't have a ton of success. Cause like, I also want to like, where the scorekeeper data is rolling over from last year. And I have three years of data. I feel really good about the ones that seem to be stickier. But if there's something that's like more volatile like are they changing scorekeepers up like I don't want to be factoring that into the projection giving it weight and that guy's not there anymore so we'll see we'll adjust after a couple of games we'll see if there's anything

that's uh needs to be adjusted for but uh yeah again I'm gonna go all in and here we are we have a high bar at four for four data-driven uh, hey, we want to be doing all we can. And tackles, they are not immune. We want to make sure that we're giving people the best data for the tackles as well. This is like borderline stalking. No, it's 1,000% borderline stalking. I go to jail to get this. So, like, this is good.

I like it. Sometimes you've got to commit a crime. I get it. You know what I mean? Like, whatever it takes. Smart. Look, a reception's binary right it happens yeah yeah there's a little bit of juice like there's something like wiggle in

there so that's literally why i don't love nba like rebounds uh assists even blocks and stuff like that because a steal like they can just take that away she's like yeah no we would look back at it it was not you know damn they can't do that with. It's like, yep, no, we would look back at it. It was not, you know, you're like, damn, they can't do that with points. And that's literally the same thing as tackles. Yep, same exact thing. We haven't asked that. All of a sudden, like, you know your score.

And if you know any of these scorekeepers' names, please email them to Ryan. Please. That way he doesn't even have to go. Ryan at BettsBirdsGroup.com. Yes, please. That way he doesn't – you don't need him hawking people down on LinkedIn. Like, come on, help him out.

Someone knows these people. Like everyone – you know what I'm saying? There's somebody knows who this – like, you know what I'm saying? Come on. I reached out to Brian. So, like, you know, the Super Bowl was in Arizona, and I reached out to, you know, some people that we knew that were there. Like, hey, who's – is there – does, does the league do like a neutral scorekeeper?

Because I was pulling years past Super Bowl data and trying to match it to the home to see if there was anything there. Oh, yeah. I didn't go. There's nothing halfway here. So I was trying to find out. Or, yeah, no, we don't play. Like if you're new to the prop drop, we don't play.

We're trying to win, and we're going to find any edge we can. I will dig to the depths of the earth to find this information so that we can, you know, make better decisions and try to win. So yeah. I think a smart man once said, get rich or die stalking scorekeepers on LinkedIn. Trying, you know, like that's how it goes. It was actually a song. I heard it.

Yeah. I love it. All right. We's how it goes. It was actually a song. I heard it. I love it. We're out of time. We typically like to dig in and spend more time, but we're off the rails. We didn't follow. Shame on Slop and I. We didn't read the show sheet. We didn't know what we were doing here. We definitely had time baked in to talk about what your questions

were. Next week, more questions from you will definitely carve out time. I won't have to go on my entire tackle diatribe. We won't have to share this scorekeeper story again and again, but slop let everyone know where they could find all your work money. At slop rules on Twitter at slop rules on YouTube. At the slop rules on Tik TOK and odds jam, on TikTok, and Odds Jam. Odds Jam, Odds Jam, Odds Jam.

Go check it out. It's great, great tools to help you out with the sports-based markets. They're very complex. A lot of times it's all put into one at Odds Jam, so check it out. Yeah, great resources at Odds Jam for sure. Check that out and don't forget. If you somehow are not following Slop on Twitter, rectify that. It is definitely worth your time and something that you will,

you'll get smarter and you'll laugh. And there's not necessarily a ton of that on Twitter these days or X these days. So it's a good combination of both. A little dumber too. That's all right. Yeah. You don't need to get smarter all the time.

So Connor, good stuff as always enjoy yourself, travel safely. Don't lose all your money. I look forward to having you back. And thanks again for being on time today. So we really appreciate it. On time with a mic that I brought with me. I mean, all I'm saying it's a good day to get rich. You can hit the craft table after this. Got a fantasy draft with Sam Hoppin. Going to be a fucking blast. Love it. 444.com slash plans, promo code prop drop. That's going going to get you 25 off and you're going to get

a hundred dollar gift card to fanatics guys please take advantage of that that's going to get you access to everything we do at 444 gets you in the discord gets all of our picks live we're pumping out these picks on the show as we go so that's only a handful of what we do most of the stuff is behind the paywall take advantage of it every friday 2 p.m eastern we will be right here to do so smash the like button subscribe comments thumbs up all that we appreciate it for sloppy connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody you