Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: September 7, 2024

Get ahead of the game with our top picks for 2024 futures and prop bets! Join us as we break down the best long-term bets, from Super Bowl contenders to standout player performances. Whether you're looking to cash in on team futures or player props, we've got the expert analysis you need to make informed decisions and maximize your winnings. Don't miss out – subscribe now for the ultimate betting insights for the 2024 NFL season! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl    Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook Ryan Noonan back with my friends Connor Allen John Hyslop to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on NFL football and that is through player props we're going to be live here 3 p.m eastern every Friday you can find us on the 444 bets youtube channel you can find us on the twitter streams as well at 444 bets on twitter sometimes at 444 football on twitter uh also check out the youtube page appreciate if you subscribe there as well uh jump in the chat let us know what your favorite prop is for the week you can find move the line wherever you listen to podcasts as well uh prop drop usually friday afternoons evenings in your podcast feed.

You can find our Wednesday show. It's Connor and I going game by game talking about not all the games, but our favorite bets on the board, more sides and totals, more angles, all those different things we like to get into on the other side as well. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, it's good to be back. This is like just one of the highlights of my week you know we get to play some drop some official plays i got two fun overs just so i don't make slop and

you nauseous uh you know make sure that we got some good overs here and then uh you know maybe build some parlays i think that we were discussing some some options to maybe win a million dollars uh with the parlay i got a couple legs for that. I don't know if DraftKings is going to let us do that. Shout out to our show sponsors. Maybe we wouldn't need them as a show sponsor if we won a million dollars, so it makes sense that they wouldn't let us win it. But we'll see.

I don't know. We'll play around with it and see what will let us get to a million and go from there. Guy's going to help get us there. As always, back from last year. Could not do this without him. Enjoy enjoyed our time together and want to continue it's our boy john high slop at slop rules on twitter what's going on buddy living the dream man it was it's been too long it really has i mean i'll be honest with you this is my favorite show to do just because, I don't know, it's fun to get dumb with smart people. You know what I mean?

And that's what we're about to do. You will have to excuse me, though, for the first part of the season, we just started having construction done on our house, so it's kind of going to get a little bit loud. We're going to gamble through it. I'm in the best possible spot I can be in in the house, so there is that. But, yeah, man um it's a lot well i mean i can't imagine what you're gonna do rental wise after we cash this million dollar ticket oh dude

we can get to a million on vandal yeah yep well draft kings looks like they're gonna cap us but we're gonna try we'll see we'll give them we'll give them a shot but obviously we're here to uh to print some money some tickets again if you want to get all the official plays, Connor and I in particular, we're going to give some actual plays that we're betting on that we share with subscribers. They go into our Discord on 444 first. So the best way to do that, get the betting subscription at 444. Lots of cheap ways to do it. You can use right now and get promo code TROPHY.

Get your first month for $10. The betting sub for a month is usually like $60. Try us out. Get in the Discord. It gets you access to everything at 444. So even if you do things other than betting, you play fantasy, you want to get like rankings, projections, articles, all that stuff. It's all included with the betting sub.

It is the top tier shelf. But again, the Discord is where you want to be. That's where the official plays. Great community. The people are just dying to get down on anything. Got basically channels for anything, pick-em channels, all that stuff going on. You can head over to 444football on Twitter as well. Lots of different ways to take advantage of some partnerships

and some other deals that we have out there as well. This is it. Time to get wild. Only bangers, No stale bread. Live lines. Things that we can bet on now. We're going to try to keep it in terms of like some normal binary props here to start-ish. And then we'll start to get into some parlays, same-game parlays, uncorrelated parlays.

I got a bunch of defensive stuff for you guys today as well. Connor, the floor is yours. Get us started. Yeah. So I have two overs for you guys. And both of them have alt overs with it this is like one of my favorite plays and you know a shout out to intern jake here for digging behind the scenes you kind of got me onto this but i'm gonna go with tony pollard over

nine and a half receiving yards um week one against chicago bears i had to do a double take on the stat the bears defense great against the run last year. We know they did well. They allowed 59 receiving yards per game just to running backs last season, the most in the league. They allowed over 1,000 receiving yards all season to opposing running backs. No one was close. I was like – Everybody else was like in the 700s. Yeah, like I was like, how is this even possible?

And so now you have Tony Pollard coming in. It looks like Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears are going to split drives, which I think is actually better for his receiving total because it means he'll get to play third downs. It means he might get some two-minute drives. We don't really know how that's going to shake out, but we do know that Tony Pollard is going to play a lot. And we saw him in preseason.

He played 19 snaps. He got four balls for 38 yards from Will Levis, the first-team offense. Like, they're going to get the ball out quick. DeAndre Hopkins has a torn MCL. We're looking at a target competition of Calvin Ridley. The tight end, Chig, is buried. Traylon Burks is buried.

It's literally just TyJ Spears and him. Basically, how much does he play? He's probably going to catch three or four balls. I not only like the over 9.5, I like 30 plus receiving yards is plus 440 at caesars 40 plus yards nine to one at caesars right now i mean he had 40 receiving yards in the preseason in like a half of snaps maybe a quarter of snaps so again maybe it's not like uh you know like that the entire time but nine and a half is such

a low bar even if i'm wrong i'm like half this analysis the matchup is so good you know like he can get there on literally one play so i think the alts there are pretty fun um so this will be involved also in like any you know longer shot parlays i would like to vouch for this as an official play as well spicy i like how you went from nine and a half up to 30 right away but we got up to what was that like you said like almost five to one yeah see the issue is like they're they're the 25 plus was like plus 275 so i'm like well at that point i mean might as well buy 30 for 440 instead because there wasn't a good two to one option you know what i mean like i wanted like a 17 and a half or 19 and a half like two to one and that didn't really exist so if you find that i think that's a good option too because like just i mean

climb the whole ladder but i don't want to play like a plus 180, like on, you know, like that's just kind of lame. I feel like that's like a waste of time. Yeah. We don't like lame here. Slop, any thoughts? Yeah. So that's my, my base play for him is 15 plus,

plus 135 at DraftKings. That's the, that's the one, you know what I mean? And then I think you kind of want to get loose. Maybe we'll put that in our back pocket and we'll see what it looks like with some other nonsense. And hopefully

we can have a Millie maybe. Because I think he's going to. The reason why I knew that everyone else was like 700 yards against him was because I was looking at that today and i was just like if you want to throw on the bears it's almost like you have to throw the running back like because i don't understand what everyone else is doing like they literally gave up way more yards than everybody else they were the

old they were thousand yard club all by that's it they were the only team so i don't know i feel like that's a just a great play especially for how they're saying they're going to use them yeah we talk about it too like we're reluctant to go after like running back receiving overs nine and a half is such a low bar we're talking about guys that are like mid-20s at times right like nine and a half like we're getting up to five to one almost to get them to the 20s or high 20s so yeah it's a great find even if you know like said splitting workload i think he's probably still 60 40 at least now did they say that they want to throw is that what we know about the titans yeah because so they got brian callahan who came from the bangles who had like one of the

highest neutral game bat pass scripts in the league before. And so they're going to pass the ball like way more. And then in the preseason too, they like, like Levis had a lot of issues with like, you know, holding onto the ball too long and like throwing the ball super far. They were like, no, you need to get the ball quick and like super fast here to like make sure he doesn't, you know, suck. So that's literally what it is.

Like they're trying to fix it essentially. And they did it in the preseason. So I would anticipate much of the same year. I mean, right off the rip. So I would anticipate much of the same year. I mean, right off the rip. So I'm 100% with you. I think this is more for like how high this ladder goes. You know what I mean?

That's what I'm saying. I don't know how much higher it can go. I don't know if I could find anything else, but I'm open to it. Like, I mean, it's tough to get 50 receiving yards, but I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know. That can happen because like exactly. You're gone. So what if they get their asses kicked? You know what I mean? Like it's throw, throw, throw time.

We get some, you know, bullshit dump off screen. You know what I mean? Like just little things that just should probably never happen, but they just keep doing it. Yeah. I don't know.

I like it. I think we got it. We got a comment here. Every other bet this year would measure from zero to Mikko Hardman under nine and a half yards. How good was his bet? Yeah. Shout out us.

I mean, that was just all-time. Like literally did not play a single – run a single route. That was awesome. You literally called that. It's funny because I don't know. Maybe I feel like I was just trying to be like aggressive. I was like, oh, he's not going gonna run a single route i thought maybe he ran like three to five i mean literally zero he can't return kicks what what a time to be alive i had

way too much of that um the only people who screwed us was prize picks who voided it every other book yeah value every other boy they void it they said that he needed to do an offensive snap which is not in their rules. I was just too lazy to pick a fight with them. If you want to pick a fight with them, I wouldn't blame you, but I had most of my action elsewhere. So I think that's kind of bullshit because their rules didn't state that. Yeah, no, that's crap.

Good to know. Yep. I mean, they just got to set better lines then. I don't know what to tell them. Don't void bets that you just set like, set a shit line for. Yeah, that's not fair. Someone shows you who they are, believe them. You know, nice picks.

Just show them. I mean, look, I mean, you're not the only guy out there now, right, in the pick-em streets. There's options, right? So for our friends that can't get down on domestics, these are important sites. And I think it's an important thing to understand when you're getting down. So, all right uh i like it i like the 30 for sure because that's not i mean again that's kind of where most rb1s hang in terms of like where their prop line is set often guys

that are involved at all in the passing game and now we're we're basically getting almost five to one to get up there so it's a good find all All right, Slop, what do you got, buddy? All right, this is kind of – I don't know. We'll see. You'll find out. Greg Dolchich. I hope I'm saying his name right. Yeah. I really think that he's going to be involved in Denver's passing attack.

I think they might get rolled, and I think that he's probably going to catch multiple balls. His total set at what I'm looking at right now, 25-plus I got this morning at plus 172. That's down to plus 168. But 40-plus yards at this guy's plus 430 right now on DraftKings. They'll let you do 70- plus at plus 1600 if you want. So, I mean, you can get as much as you want on this. But last season, game one, he only played like, I don't even know,

like 22 plays before he got hurt. And he went two for 22. But it was kind of like when you're watching that, like, wait, who the hell is that guy? You know what I mean? Like, he's involved. You know what I mean? Like, he's involved. You know what I mean? Like, I get to know him.

And then he got hurt, so we didn't have to get to know him. He played again, like, once and then just was gone. So here's the thing, though. The year before, dude, this guy was, like, 4 for 87, 6 for 51, 4 for 39, 6 for 85. I mean, and that was as a rookie. So three years in, Sean Payton, that's not bad. Not a lot of competition in terms of targets because, I mean, Judy's gone, so it's Cortland Sutton.

I mean, he's legit. I'll give it to him. But when you're looking at the receivers, it's – I don't know who else you throw to. What if he's like the second target? You know what I mean? And he has a nice, he's like the second target? You know what I mean? And he has a nice like four for 45 game. You know what I mean? You've never noticed in the box score.

You've never like, guy didn't set a record. You probably still haven't heard of him. You would cash a plus 430 bet if he did that. So I'd say 40 plus at plus 430 is not crazy at all. And we might see his line be like 29, 30 next week, just because I bet you he's involved.

It's just the lower a dot stuff. Connor. I know that we're interested in on some of the bone next stuff, or I just get the ball out quick, you know, get the ball into the middle of field. It's just a little bit more risky to get it on the boundaries, especially against the Seahawks.

They have some playmakers that can make some stuff happen out there. I don't hate it. I don't hate it at all. I know you were trying to push Doltris on me in the FFPC drafts this year. You can see it, right? You'll be sharing time with me. The best pitcher. The reports were great out of camp.

They were talking about how he was going to be one of their top options. But then there was some weird usage stuff in preseason that kind of knocked his price back down. But, I mean, this threshold is so low low his actual prop is 18 and a half receiving yards and his uh reception line is one and a half on fando minus 184 draft kings over two and a half plus 130 uh i don't know if i want to lay minus 185 on and over on virtually anything so i would probably rather take the alt there but um i don't know. I think that the yards could easily get there. Like slop side.

I mean, if you get, if you mix in one 20 yard catch or even a 15 yard catch, like he's basically there. I mean, he's like, you know, he's cooking.

So I'm also kind of like sneaky high on this Broncos offense. I think that they're going to be a good bit better than people think. Even if they, you know, again, remind me next week, even if they look really bad against Seahawks, who their defense was supposed to be better. better remind me the week after to not give up

on my broncos yet uh you know yet because i think they could be okay play bonics over 16 and a half rushing yards it's a play that i think is uh i think it's up to 17 and a half now it's available we can find some we can find some parlay legs in that game for sure some stuff on the seahawks side because i was kind of our take on the Seahawks side. Because I always kind of our take on the Seahawks or the Broncos is that Broncos could be like a sneaky over team. Defense is so bad still. And if there's any sort of pulse from Bo Nix, you know, you get a guy like Dolchert that emerges.

I think Cortland Sutton is still good. Like there's some paths here to them being a team that could, again, be in some over some shootout games that might not be baked in early in the season because the expectations are about as low as you can get in Denver. No one's expecting too, too much there. All right, first one, I love this area. I love big plays. I love longest reception.

I love longest completion. Longest rush is an area that i love to live in and i was looking for some other stuff and i found this one uh and it's an absolute banger um we're gonna go josh allen longest rush over 11 and a half yards um this is it's just not a lot and there's so many things going here so um pretty severe splits that I think we need to explain. There was a chunk of time early in the season, first 10 games. Ken Dorsey was the OC. Josh Allen Bailey ran.

They were like five and five. He averaged fewer than five attempts per game. 2.1% explosive rate. Like barely anything, especially compared to his career. Averaging less than 25 yards per game. Joe Brady takes over and it changes. He goes from like four and a quarter carries per game up to 9.2. His explosive rate jumps from 2.1 up to 8.4.

And that's 15 yard runs, right? This is, we only need 11 and a half. We need 12. That was second in the league down the stretch last year. So all running backs, all quarterbacks, Josh Allen had the second highest rate of explosives which again is 15 yards um and he averaged 47 yards per game so we only need 11 and a half here minus 110 on fan duels is uh minus 120 on mgm rivers has it out there at minus

121 as well absolutely love it uh a couple others that i really like but i want to give you one more josh allen prop here um but i'm gonna give you guys thoughts here on uh on the longest rush here first connor what are your thoughts no i i like it the splits with brady were really interesting he was like he averaged like significantly more rushing attempts and everything um and i don't think that like there was some debate in the off season about whether that was noise or whether that was like you know actual actual significant there. Cause they were almost like we needed to win every single game to make the playoffs,

which tends as we know, like to boost rushing stats. But at the same time, we're looking at this current roster. Like, you know, they have Keon Coleman probably starting outside. Who's terrible separator in preseason,

terrible separator in college. Khalil Shakir's a little bit banged up. Was apparently wearing a knee sleeve. Curtis Samuel is a turf toe injury. Like Dalton Kincaid, I mean, should be a full-time player, but who knows if he's going to be like, there's like so many different things. Like how are they moving the ball outside of running the ball with James Cook? But this Cardinals defense sucks. So I think that they're going to be, I think they're going to move the ball on the ground with James Cook, probably Josh Allen running the ball as well as Dalton Kincaid. Those are my three bets here

to like be successful. So yeah, I think that the over longest rush is pretty interesting slop we don't even need volume here really theoretically we just need we need one big play so like even if there is noise to the rushing like spike and workload I just need him to pop on in Arizona bottom five in the league in explosives allowed last year. Any thoughts on this one? Yes. Well, it's one play, right? Especially for him, it's a broken play away. It doesn't even have to be a real run.

You know what I'm saying? I don't know. I think Arizona's offense might be okay too. So that could keep the game going in a favorable way just because, obviously, you don't want them to get out ahead and start rolling them but i don't know that that's going to happen so yeah it'll be in play the whole day until he does it because he will do it yeah patrick in the chat this cardinals d is an absolute disaster here's my other spin on this and this one really surprised me too uh this is so draft kings only so shout out to draft kings sponsor unless you can find it elsewhere i didn't do a ton of work but i'm not readily available arizona cardinals to record a sack no it's five to one oh um now i'm like that price is interesting

let me look into it a little bit uh josh allen i know led the league last year in pressure to sack rate um there were five instances last year where he did not take a single sack cardinals probably have the worst pass for us in the league they it was bad last year where he did not take a single sack. Cardinals probably have the worst pass rush in the league. It was bad last year. They tried to use some draft capital, Darius Robinson, early in the draft. He's on IR, basically running it back with the same group. This same group, somehow, stunning, they totaled one sack in their last six games last year.

They managed to go over in five of their last six games to end the season it's very i mean i didn't go through the entire league but like it's just not that's just not happening anywhere else like someone will stumble into a sack so you have a combination of a team that just does not get any sacks uh has not done anything really in the offseason to address that area of need against the quarterback that takes them in terms of the radius pressure at the lowest in the league so five to one for like a quarter unit or a half unit. I'm willing to see if that continues. It's DraftKings only if you go under the sack tab. So yeah, love that price.

So a couple of Josh Allen bangers get started. Love it. Yeah. I mean, riding, riding Josh. I'm really interested to see what that Bill's offense looks like. It's just, I think it'll be probably fine. Cause I think he's good enough that he can support. He can elevate guys, but that certainly was not the case early in his career.

So we'll see how he is without a good top-tier wide receiver. Damn you, Andrew. Allen's going to step out of bounds at a half yard behind the line of scrimmage. It'll be Noonan's villain backstory. Yeah, I hope you're wrong. I hope it doesn't happen. But he'll step out of bounds after he runs 12 yards down the field, and then we'll be fine.

So that will be the first one. All right, it's time to get – so we usually get off the board a little bit, get a little parlay action, a little SGP action, a little alts. Connor, the floor is yours. Take it wherever you want. Yeah, are we going straight to the round robins here? I feel like I got to – Well, see, it's tough because one of my plays is also going to the the round robins here i feel like i gotta or um well

see it's tough because one of my plays is also gonna move my round robin so let me i'll just tell you tell you about another play like another round robin one i'll tell you another round robin one i think jaleel mclaughlin alts are very much in play a lot of the reasons slot mentioned here um bo nicks is one of the highest running back target rates. And I think Jaleel's just got the juice, man. Like he's a good, like, I think he's a good football player. Um, I, again, like if they're targeting the running back slot, I think he played Javante, um, reception alts, but I don't know if he is quite on the same, like, you know, juice there. So Jaleel's like 40 plus receiving yards. I think it was like kind of similar, like five to one or something like that. It was like pretty high. Um, so that's kind of a fun one that I like to throw in something like that it was like pretty high um so that's

kind of a fun one that i like to throw in there in terms of like alts look at you just banging out running back uh reception overs today i know it's not not on brands it's not good i don't know what's going on here i just feel like they mispriced a lot of the running backs this week like deandre swift is priced like he's like i you know, hobo. I mean like this is literally like some crazy prices on Deandre Swift coming into this week. Like I just don't understand it like that. The Rico Dowdle stuff. I mean, I think it's like a joke. Like everyone and their moms knows that like they have been talking up, you know, Rico Dowdle is like the number one running back. Even if he's not the number one running back, they're setting the price like he's nobody.

He's literally going to be some special teams guy. So I don't know. It's some very interesting running back prices this week. Yeah. Slav, you can give us a regular one if you have it, and then we can come back and we just basically fill the last half hour with nonsense and stuff. Have you got something else that's a little bit more benign for the people?

All I have is this nonsense but okay we can we can water it down so all right so pat fryer muth is a guy that i took 25 plus at plus 105 at draft kings earlier that kind of got nuked a little bit but here's the thing you could just take him 40 plus. I mean, it's plus 200. I think they're going to get beat up by the Falcons. I really do. I think that, I think they're going to see Arthur Smith and then just be like, this, this is bullshit.

Let's kill this guy. You know what I mean? So that's going to happen once they get behind. Dude, it's got Russ. Russ is throwing to someone right there. It's going to be Pat Frymouth. Just got a contract today so they like him they want to stay he was not bad as a rookie and when he had ben roethlisberger who was washed at the

time then he had to sit through two years of kenny pickett mitch trabisky i mean just throwing balls near him that's all they doing. They weren't throwing it to him. They weren't throwing it at him. They were just throwing it kind of over there, and he was supposed to just be Superman and go get it. I don't think that's going to happen now. I think he's fine. I think he's going to be literally a part of their offense,

almost like a two-receiver, just because if you look at their roster, like who is that guy? Yeah, I don't mind. So this is – I don't know if you've been seeing some of the latest news. Like, I don't think Russell Wilson is going to start this week. Oh, really? Yeah. Like, there's been a lot of random late-breaking news here that we can, I think, touch on and maybe have a place for.

But I think Justin Fields is probably going to start instead of Russell Wilson this week. Even better. Then let's go 50 plus. Oh, man, that's good so i actually have another guy in my like uncorrelated parlay because of that i thought george pickens under receptions yardage overs were pretty interesting because i mean they were already around the piss out of the ball with with russ so now like they have you know fields it's going to be like run, like they might set a record for most percentage runs. And then, but then they're, when they do throw the ball, it might be like electric. It's just, it might be like 40 yards downfield,

the Pickens and Firemouth somewhere. And I don't know, the Falcons defense isn't that good. So I don't know. I kind of think it's, it could be interesting here that, you know, they throw the ball like deep downfields. That's kind of a fun, I think. If field starts, I think he sucks as a quarterback. But, you know, he's fun. It'll be like the night that – I think it was a Thursday night game where he had like 200-something passing yards and like almost all of them were to DJ Moore. Remember that?

Yep. It was like this guy's going off. And then you look at Moore and you're like, dude, he's caught every single – like what's happening right now uh actually okay last year with fields i'm looking them up now so we might be okay yeah you had a four for a buck seven three for 41 the last two games five for 66 okay yeah we plus. I kind of hope field starts now. Yeah, I think they're just more fun with fields. I think you probably can take that and run with it.

I mean, literally run with it for sure. Yeah, it's going to be an interesting game. All right, I'm going to give you a sack prop before we start to get into some of the – I'm sorry, I'm going to give you a tackle prop before we start to get super wild. This is a – look, the tackles move guys. So if you're watching the, you're listening to this on podcast delayed, it's gone. If you're getting this in 10 minutes, it's probably gone, right? This is just how this goes. Sorry. Can't do anything about it.

We're trying to give you as many outs as possible. You can find this on Caesars. Caesars changed the way that they're pricing these right now or the way that they're doing it. They're just basically giving you ladders, which is awesome, and overs. They're doing it like 5-plus and up and stuff like that. So on Caesars, 5-plus is the number. You can also draft Kings and MGM. Derek Brown, Carolina Panthers, over 4.5 tackles and assists.

This is a bad line. Should be five and a half. So I'm playing it. I played up to five and a half. You still get plus 100 or something like that, even odds on Derek Brown. Derek Brown is coming off of basically one of the best interior defensive linemen seasons ever. First guy ever to top 100 tackles in the season.

Plays against the Saints here. Played twice last year division rival he had 10 and 7 in those two meetings new oc for the saints but terrible offensive line still so still gonna be able to like whoop up on these guys get a ton of penetration he topped this mark in eight of his last nine games and only fell short three times all season i have a bit of regression priced into him this year because obviously he did something no one's ever done before. He averaged like 9.1 snaps per tackle and assist. I have him at 9.5 and I still have him projecting at about 6.2 tackles in the spot. So we have a lot of room for this number to be clear, right? If he doesn't regress at all, we're cooking with gas. This guy

probably gets to six or seven. So a St. Scorekeeper, generous too. They've been been north of the 45 threshold on assist the last three years comfortably above league average so comfortable playing this is up to five and a half if you can still get plus money you're right around there on derrick brown uh pushed out a bunch of other tackles still waiting for more games to come out before i play some more i'll have some more for sure there's a couple of games that are just posted on one or two books that aren't readily available on both DraftKings and Caesars. We're waiting for all that. But those are going to be in the Discord. Get in there.

They move quick. Come and get those. Derrick Brown's a smash, though. Six plus is plus 190. Is that a move? It just moved down to plus 170. Yeah. We're probably lighting up.

Caesars. Caesars. Yeah. I got him for 6.2. i got him for 6.2 again if he doesn't regress and i have him like 85 of the snaps he played like 98 a bunch of times last year so like i feel pretty good about the projection being somewhat conservative here for derrick brown again 10 and 7 in the two matchups against the Saints last year. I mean, I'm in. You're ceiling.

This is great. I'm in. These are the spots that you love. Four and a half or so. You get like these like safeties or like really good linemen that can actually have a ceiling because then you can ladder it up to a spot that's like actually attainable and start to get some real nice money. So, yeah, it's kind of in the perfect spot for doing it.

I mean, we might have to build one of these things on caesars here with like these tackle ladders i mean you can parlay tony pollard 30 receiving yards and derrick brown eight or seven tackles and it's like 25 to one i mean that's like they won't let you get to a million though that's tough that's tough i try all the time oh yeah that's that's not What's the max that they let you do? I don't know. It just says contact support, and then I just leave. You know what I mean? So I'm like, I'm not doing that.

Imagine how many Caesars points you can get, though, when you get the million and then bet all the million. You know what I mean? Imagine how many hotel rooms you'll get. That's another million one of these. Yeah. You're all set. Stacking those points. Give those those reward points it's not as good

as it used to be right caesars and mgm changed their their points yeah they nuked it a little bit it used to be like not one to one but it was like 10 of your things now i think it's like one percent of your like uh whatever you spend on you know know, that is that. So it's like, yeah, the rewards program sucks. Patrick knows too. I'm pretty sure it was Jack Miller. Well, I got in early,

like a couple of years ago and we'll got like, it was like seven stars, Atlantis free trip, like his first year. I mean, Jack's obviously an absolute degen, but he was, I mean,

he's like 22 years old. So like, you know, I'm sure he's been plenty, but you know, I think there was more about the rewards program being awfully generous in the first year so um it's crazy silly dinner though um i have one more official one and then we can hop into the alts here if that's cool yeah go for it all right so my second play here david montgomery over 52 and a half rushing yards

so again not a very on- play, but not including the game. He was injured and against Tampa Bay early. David Montgomery rushed for more than 52 yards in 14 of 16 games last season. I mean, literally I'm not even a big, like, you know, hit rate guy, but like, I was like, this seems off. First off, second off, he's playing against the Rams. The Rams lost Aaron Donald. They lost Ernest Jones.

They lost their defensive coordinator, Regine Morris. Now they have like, I mean, we thought that they massively overperformed last year and they were like, you know, middle of the pack run defense now lost literally one of the best defensive players of all time, arguably on the defensive line.

And a great defensive coordinator. On top of this, there was a quote that came out today from Dan Campbell saying, David Montgomery is our guy. We're going to feed him early and late in games. We know that that's what happens here. Jameer Gibbs is going to see work, but he also got injured a couple weeks ago. He says that he's 98% to 100%.

If he's not saying he's 100%, then he's probably not 98% either. That's kind of my opinion. These guys always, always overestimate their own health. So I believe that Gibbs probably plays plenty. But Montgomery here, he's at 52 and a half rushing yards, 54 and a half a DK. I like the altered draft Kings to over 87 and a half rushing yards is plus 500. Um, I mean, he could easily see 15, 17 carries here in a great matchup, which I think is very much in range here at plus 500. So talking about like 90, not even a hundred rushing yards, 87 rushing yards for a guy who might see 15, 20 carries

against like a defense that we expect to be just absolute dog ass. So I'm excited for the Montgomery here. And again, like the floor is so high, like even if I'm wrong on the, Gibbs is fine. They're all full go.

Like he's still going to see 12 to 15 carries and probably get 60 yards. So like the floor is definitely there as well can't overstate the matchup we're talking about the league's best offensive line any way you want to shake it it's a top three offensive line against the defense that way over performed last year that lost his oh is dc and aaron donalds and their like best linebacker that they traded to the titans a couple weeks ago so it's a it's ripe for the pick-in and

patrick again is firing off bangers shout out to patrick he's here with us pretty much every week uh this is fantastic this is a spot that i had to remember when a healthy cooper cup was lined in the 90s he's lined at 66 and a half in a game with a total of 52 and the rams are dogs and the rams dogs piece the rams are we touched on it on our wednesday show like the rams have pretty massive splits they are severely run heavy in advantageous game scripts when they are up um right they're dogs here as slobbering dogs let's go the dog got loose dude is that a pup oh yeah she's brand new like a couple weeks now. That's Oakley. Oakley. Let's go.

That's amazing. Sorry, dude. Keep going. Dogs derail everything. It kind of looks like your dog, right, Connor? A little bit? Yeah, a little bit. You got a boxer? Cousins. They're cousins. Yeah, I got a boxer pity. She's not very friendly, but great dog.

Don't bring your kids around, but the a boxer pity. She's not very friendly, but great dog. Nice. I like it. Yeah, don't bring your kids around, but the dog's nice. But anyway, like the Rams, when they're up, they run. But like they are no problem when they're like in neutral or trailing to just turn on the gas and just chuck it around. So like there are some correlated same-game parlays here around Detroit rushing, Montgomery in particular. You maybe go a little

bit under and some of the pass catcher stuff on detroit and then just kind of turn it up the heat on like attempts completions cooper cup whatever you think of puka like there's a lot of stuff here that we can maybe build momentarily but i think that's a great call out by patrick and i'm with connor on the uh demon stuff absolute absolute beast here yeah i don't blame any overs just i mean slop i'm curious to hear your thoughts i don't know i feel like you're more of like a wide receiver over kind of old guy not as much of a running back guy here but i think they can price the running back guys better do you know what i mean because it's going to be on volume where it's like receivers it's just it's anybody's guess you know what i mean like if the game

script goes wild um if a guy falls down, you know what I'm saying? If he catches a deep ball, you know what I'm saying? It just really messes up. Like that's got to be hard to price. That's all. Yeah. Because when they go over or under, it's not like they – a lot of times. I'm not saying everybody, but a lot of times they went 100 plus.

And, you know, if they average 65 yards a game, they don't get 65 yards every game dude it's 120 this game 30 this game 100 you know what i mean like yeah it's just over so i don't know that's just my take i don't know if there's any data that supports that but no they're more though yeah yeah i think the distribution band is probably tighter right it's kind of what you're saying like just the variance of receivers and explosives and things like that. I think there's more, there's more variance in it for sure. I got a couple others that I'm just going to throw out here real quick.

And before we started to get into some of the wonky stuff, some like longest stuff. I like Tang Dell longest reception over 21 and a half yards. Tang Dell has got an uncorrelated parlay that I think is also pretty exciting. Maybe we can touch on too. I i just he's been great against zone he kind of ate last year against uh you know these this cover three looks which the colts are going to run a ton of yeah i think there's some good spots here for just the passing game in general for houston but dell longest uh 21 and a half went over that i think like six to ten games last year

it's like and like over it in a handful. And then did that again against the Colts. So, like that one. And then two guys on the rushing side that we love to go over on the longest. A-chain, 15 and a half. That's not a lot. 15 is what we call explosive. Basically, last year, if you ran, you had, like, an explosive rate

at, like, six percent as a running back you were top 10 in the league hn was 12.6 he was he was doing his own thing so uh now you got like just this ryan nielsen defense in jacksonville which i don't feel great about they're gonna play more man which can lead to more explosives you're gonna be down there in the swamp miami it's gonna be hot those guys are gonna be tired uh you know even though jacksonville's in florida still you're just gonna be warm game late game you know again you only need one this dude pops them off all the time 15 and a half you can get there then we have kenneth walker jr as well uh up in seattle broncos allowing the fourth highest rate of explosives nearly a third of all the rushing yards they gave up last year came on

explosives which is massive a lot of that was a chain. If we remember that week three game, but again, just continuity of the offensive line is healthy. Walker's, you know, some of that stuff regressed a little bit last year, but again, the offensive line was beat up. So a nice spot against the Broncos. I love those two.

Not quite as much as I love Josh Allen. So Josh Allen made the cut as the official play, but I'm playing Kenneth Walker and a-Chain Longest as well. Love it. All right, guys. Let's get off the wall. I'm going to give you one. I just touched on Tank Dell.

Tank Dell going to be the third receiver there, so they're probably going to do a lot of two-receiver stuff. Dell still probably has a nice game. You can only do this on Fandle because their reception line on Tank Dell is four and a half. You go under four and a half receptions in 70-plus yards, and you're out to plus 10.38. So a little over 10-to-1 for basically kind of where that guy lived last year in terms of, like, statistical output.

So catch four balls, catch for 75 yards. You catch my longest ticket, and got 10 to one and change on the uncorrelated parlay. So that's one of my favorites here. Oh, that's kind of a good one. I like that. Cause like, we don't even know the usage of these guys. Like tank doll.

Like I think he's a good player, but I just don't know how many targets he's going to get because we just don't really know how many targets any of these guys are going to get. It might just like rotate tweak. So that's the beauty. That's the beauty of it. Yeah, especially early, right? I think early you take advantage of that. You're right.

Take advantage of that volatility here. Yeah, so I like that one. Again, DraftKings, their reception line is three and a half, so you can't really do it there, but FanDuel is down. I didn't price it out, Caesars or MGM or anything like that yet, but FanDuel I went to. What's their usually friendlier? Yeah, no, that's, that's a good one. Um, I got a fun one too. I don't know something that we talked about in preseason, something that whale cap actually brought up when I was in his on like doing a show or something in the deep dive discord, the, uh,

I'm, I'm into, uh, Terry McLaurin over receptions, like six receptions and under receiving yards. So we have cliff Kingsbury coming in who wants to just like throw a ton of short passes in the preseason. They had like one of the shortest, like quickest passes like ever. We've already seen this play out. Like Kyler Murray was just like,

and it was the horizontal raid. And then Kingsbury goes to USCaleb williams one of the best quarterback rocket process prospects in like a while and he's a pretty bad season like he wasn't all that as good or he regressed a little bit from the year before and now he's once again office coordinator with a bad offensive line a rookie quarterback and no one who can win down field outside of terry mclaurin so i think they're gonna get the ball quick they're gonna get the ball to terry so i think you can look at like i think it's six six receptions here like all can win downfield outside of Terry McLaurin. So I think they're going to get the ball up quick. They're going to get the ball up to Terry. So I think you can look at like, I think it's six, six receptions here.

Like all the receptions on FanDuel and then like under 60 yards. Like this is like 10 to one or even more than that. I think actually, depending on where you're getting. I like that. We were doing the opposite last year with Sam Howell, with Terry trying to get the unders and the over on the big place but yeah it's shifted yeah do we do we add the other one in there do we add the uh the zack hertz the zack hertz we're talking pre-show um what was it over three or four receptions and

then under 24 yards so far that is just tough like it's threading the needle it's threading the needles you catch four balls for 23 yards and you're fine yeah i mean you're it's 10 to 1 or 11 to 1 uh actually i think it's almost 12 to 1 i priced it out because it's it's crazy but uh i mean you're getting plus money on the receptions at least which is driving some of that price but uh i mean it fits the air raid right can you do them both or does that start to be actually correlated we have to see if we can price no i think you can do them both and um it won't like it won't mess anything up let's see it gives you yeah okay so it's 160 to 5 to 1 if you do zacher it's under or four receptions under 24 yards terry mclaurin six receptions under 60

yards um i feel better about the mclaurin six receptions under 60 yards um i feel better about the mclaurin one but i really i like both of them i think that's fun uh no i i like the mclaurin one better too but that's that wouldn't be tough to handle but you know it makes sense the same thought process right like the earth is not catching turning up fields right he just has to and he's probably not running a 10 yard a dot at any point either right he's just in the flat or yeah that's that's crazy you might just go down you might just be small yeah i'm down i'm good yeah like 45 years old like can you even you can't even like turn up field at that age right like it's just like no hey slob right he's dancing in our territory man i can tell you

i'll be honest with you. I agree. You know what I'm saying? Yeah, I know what you're talking about. That's true. I'm not getting tackled, dude. Oh, yeah. I don't want to. I mean, I turn up field to get out of bounds.

I can catch. I'm not getting hit. No, I'm trying to get out of bounds for sure. So for those of you new to the uncorrelated space, you think, oh, that sounds ridiculous. Like that sounds so stupid. Zay Flowers literally just had six receptions for 37 yards last night. Bad offensive line, a quarterback and system that they just,

I don't know, for some reason, couldn't throw the ball downfield. I think he actually had like a 15 yard or two at one point. Yeah, that ruined me. Same for McLaurin. And probably a lot of running. Like it's really, there's a lot of running like it's really there's a lot of similarities actually so i don't know i think that that's six for under 60

could be a steal i mean i might go eight under under 60 to be honest where she writes it that in the playoffs last year again it's kind of similar like super low a dot stuff and i know mclaurin can win downfield but uh can can jayden get it there is the question, or they'll line hold up. I don't know. Yeah. What's up, Sam Hoppin? Shout out to Sam Hoppin. Yeah, I like it. I like it.

Sloppy, got any uncorrelateds on the list? No uncorrelated. Are we running back our hero, our national hero? I mean, here's the thing. I think Jameson is involved this year year that's the thing like more so than do you know what i mean like it's not gonna be uh he came on the field we threw a 60 yard bomb to him and then he went to the sidelines you know what i'm saying seriously that's what they were doing it's like this is beautiful i mean they literally only throw a d to this guy but at the end of last year he was running the shorter intermediate routes,

and then now with no Reynolds, I don't know. I think – I mean, I haven't seen a practice or anything like that. I think, though, he's on the field a lot. I think he's going to be like a number two type. You know what I'm saying? Like it's not the same, and I'm going to miss him for that. Yeah. I will say they did bump up his reception line though,

to three and a half. So instead of the two and a half, it's a bunch of one and a half. Yeah. But is it really real? If you don't do an under one and a half, 55, is it,

you know what I'm saying? Are you a real man? If you don't do that, those are my favorite. The, the MVS is like the guys. Yep. It's just like,

Hey, you're going to get one shot at this. And, I mean, it is what it is. But it's basically like, hey, is he going to catch a 30-plus yard pass today? So you basically have that market on FanDuel now, a player to catch a 30-plus yard reception. That's literally that market. Or you can do it your own way, the real way,

and just take him under receptions and over yardage. Yeah, three and a half. And then our, what's, what can we go all to receiving on him? 50 or 60, maybe 70. I mean, I don't know. I mean, three or 90 in my Millie. Ooh, just straight up 90 though. No under reception. No, no, no, no. It was like, dude, it's like plus nine 50. I think it was. I was like, all right, I'll take it.

I mean, just. We're going to get game all right, I'll take it. I mean, just – We're going to get game scripted out of that one. It's kind of hot, guys. I'm going to be honest. Under 3.5 receptions, 70-plus yards. It's 29-1. Jesus Christ, yeah. Here's the thing.

I mean, here's how you can talk yourself into it. I just did. lion Jeff see if they've done no the lions get ahead and they just run run run run but the way they get ahead is with you know he catches like a 10-yard hitch and he catches a 75-yard touchdown and then now you don't see him anymore he's just blocking out there and that's it you don't know because they're they're ahead because sun god's not to get his and same with laporta so i mean it's not like this guy can just demand a bunch of targets especially in a a shit game script where they're killing the other team so that could happen it's not that ridiculous and like i mean say he sees like five targets like which I think is very much squarely in range of outcomes.

He's probably only catching three or four of those anyways. I mean, that's why the line is three and a half. You know what I mean? Like, so they know that one. Yeah. I don't know.

I'm interested. I got a third leg to know guys though. You know, we've been betting them. So we know them. You know what I mean? It's like, he's a two and a half guy.

He's not, now he's a three and a half. It's like, okay, well, do you, do you know what I'm saying? Like that's a two and a half guy he's not now he's a three and a half it's like okay well dude you know i'm saying like that's his new role is baked in i guess add a third leg back back up on patrick's stuff here just one other thing cooper cup 80 plus yards yeah no that's good plus 7458 guys We're almost at 75-1. Three legs.

Wow. Yeah. That's it. I mean, that's hard. Jammo under, he's got to catch three balls for 70 yards. Right? He catches that one big 40-yarder, and we're cooking. Right?

And then they run the shit out of the ball in the second half. First play of the game, he catches an 80-yard touchdown. Literally. Correct. First play of the game. Donezo. We're good. And then Cooper Cup just eats. 80 yards. I mean, I'm afraid to even look at Donezo. We're good. And then Cooper Cup just eats 80 yards.

I mean, I'm afraid to even look at what 100 yards is if we do that at Cooper Cup. I mean, I think you have to. You know what I mean? I'm not that afraid, but I'm theoretically afraid. 100 to 1, baby. Oh, baby. Yeah. It's over 100 to 1.

So, I mean, that's happening. I'm not going to be here talking about it talking about jamo and we get caught holding the bag on jamo week one because we didn't want to we thought he'd be more involved he could still be more involved and still uh do his thing so yeah this is uh that's a beauty 103 to 1 basically i love it um slop you have any other alts that we can like add like let's try and build a million let's see how we can get to a million dollars um i think kyler murray could go 300 plus i mean the build get ahead of that team i don't and they should because that defense sucks well kyler's healthy from what they say yeah um. He's kind of over that video game, whatever that was, thing.

You know what I'm saying? So he's on the other side of that. He didn't go over 300 last year, but he was coming back from injury. It took him a little while to get going. I can give him a pass for that. He had some 250s, mid-2s. The year before that, though, he had a couple 300s. So he has hit this before.

We're not asking him to do something he's never done before. And then don't even go back to, like, 2021 or whatever. Like, he was doing it all the time. So, now, though, fast forward to now, he's got Harrison. The Wilson kid, not bad. The McBride guy, not bad. Greg Deutsch. The running back can catch balls, James connor i mean they've got enough like

greg dorch yet i mean they've got enough dudes when they get down which is probably gonna happen a lot this year they get down i mean his 300s like plus 600 on draft kings like that's that's crazy it's only 490 on fan duel but i mean is it that is it 600 crazy for 300 yards in an in a in an environment like he we should see you know what i mean like i don't think the weather is bad or anything like that it's september so i mean go to the buffalo i know you guys aren't really weather guys but like i don't know i don't like the snow you know what i mean like that like give me give me a nice september day let's go yeah you want to be nice but um but no i i don't know. I don't like the snow. You know what I mean? Shit like that. Give me a nice September day. Let's go. Yeah, you want to be nice. But no, I don't think that's that crazy.

And if you want to get loose, I mean, 325 is not offered at DraftKings, but it is offered at FanDuel, and I'll get you a price right now. So I don't have a screen that gives me alts. Does that make sense? Like, that sucks. That's the only bad part about alts nowadays. I need a screen. Here, I'm almost there.

I'm almost there. Kyler Murray, all passing yards, 325 is plus 880. That's kind of nice. But, I mean, it's just I don't like the 25. I like the 300. You know what I'm saying? That's more. Yeah, i don't like the 25 i like the 300 like you know like that's more and yeah you don't want to get into 310 and feel like yeah you got cute you know exactly and that's and exactly i mean i feel like you know i mean there is a limit to the ridiculousness you know what i mean and i don't know if 325 is within that limit

i think it might be just outside of rational thought you know i like it i like the thought there um yeah i mean they have weapons it's going to be another over team because the defense is going to be a problem and like healthy kyler offensive lines better uh there's rolled that's the problem it's the bets really on the other team with that one, I think. You know what I mean? Because Tyler can do it, obviously. You know what I'm saying? He'll be fine.

It's more of like, is that other team going to roll them or get them in that situation where they got to keep getting points? Yeah. Like it's – someone asked about the recovery props for tonight's game. You want to? That's not the show per se, but, yeah, we can. Let's dive in. I mean, yeah, why not? All right. Someone asked about the recovery props for tonight's game. You want to? That's not the show per se, but yeah, we can. Let's dive in.

I mean, yeah, why not? All right, so here's the reason I say that is because FanDuel has given out these promotions, right? The no sweat parlay, and then they'll give any wager a 50% profit boost. But last night, they were giving out the 50% profit boost, same game parlays. So if you wanted, you could have just done Isaiah Likely, two plus receptions, 40 plus yards, and then add in like his over 15 and a half yards, and that'll trigger the bonus. So you end up with a 50% boost on literally the guy to get at least two catches and 40 yards.

Do you know what I mean? It was like plus 587. So if you got something like that, I think Christian Watson is probably a good target for something like that, even though I don't love the fact that he has a lot of competition, like real competition, not like bullshit competition. Those guys are good, those other receivers. But I think he's probably alpha that room. And if things go your way, 60-plus for four or five catches isn't really that ridiculous.

Yeah, that's the hard part with this team is just kind of loading in on who's it going to be, right? In a situation like that, you might want to go Jordan Love. Yeah. Do you know what I'm saying? Because it doesn't matter at that point. You know what I mean? Everybody can get it.

Yeah. Yeah, I like Love Longest is a look that I like a little bit tonight. Connor, do you have anything jumping off to you tonight? I mean, Josh Jacobs' stuff is interesting too because it just seems like he could be in a spot where, especially if it's a positive game script for the Packers, like Josh Jacobs could eat. Yeah, his stuff is so high. That's my only issue already. he'd be in a spot where especially if it's a positive game script for the packers like josh jacobs could eat yeah his stuff is so high that's my only issue already like it's like rushing

receivings around like i think 80 or something like that like rushing is like high 60s um but he's gonna see all the work um like it looks like marshall lloyd i think was already announced out emmanuel wilson is like questionable who's like their third guy. Beyond that, I mean, Emmanuel Wilson doesn't even matter, or whatever his name is, but that doesn't even matter. But another one, I mean, Eric just brought up, or E. Colt, I don't know, I think his name is Eric, but any Mikko Hardman props next week in InstaUnder. So for tonight, I played Dontavian Wicks under two and a half receptions.

We played it around even money in theions. We played it around like even money in the discord. I think it's like minus one 30. I still think that's fine in the games that he played with Romeo Dobbs, with Christian Watson, with Jaden Reed. He virtually never played. Like he was like a 20% snap guy in the preseason. Again, like he, I think he played three snaps out of like the 20 something with the starters. So as long as those guys are healthy, like I, I mean, Wix is, isn't really going to play that much. So, um, it sucks. Like, I don't want to take his yards.

Cause I mean, again, we saw in preseason, he called like a 60 yard bomb and then just went right back to the pine, but the receptions, I don't know if he sees three targets to be honest. I think he's probably better about to see like one to two targets here, um, that are like 40 yards downfield. And then, um, you know, and then it goes back to the bench. So I'd be pretty surprised to see like one to two targets here that are like 40 yards downfield and then goes back to the bench. So I'd be pretty surprised to see him three-plus targets. That's my only look for tonight, which is pretty boring,

but we can build a same-game parlay for tonight if we want. I mean, we might have some action. They have the 50% profit boost, and I think there's like a no-sweat. There's a no-sweat. Yeah. Yep, they have the no-sweat. And then the 50% boost looks like that's on any bet. So you could just put that on, you know, a straight bet.

But, I mean, I think the Eagles score points, and I think that the Packers score points. I think we're good for, you know, your all receiver over type stuff because it should be an environment where, you know, it's a matter of do they get the pass or not. It's not going to be a, an environment where, you know, it's a matter of, do they get the pass or not? It's not going to be a matter of like,

Oh man, they're sitting on the ball. This sucks. I don't think that's going to happen. Yeah. We'll see. I'm with Patrick too, uh, on over 0.5 stabbings.

Um, so the logistics of this game are concerning, you know, being in Brazil And you see like the all right the Eagles the home team So they're like staying next to the stadium and they put the Packers Like basically in Chile I don't know like they're like

Having to drive over I'm not sure what's going on They can use Twitter Yeah they can use Twitter over there It's crazy and then like Too like it's just not a place where I don't know you're a Big professional athlete that you want to just be like Hey let's take in the sites crazy and then like too like it's just not a place where i don't know you're a big professional athlete that you want to just be like hey let's take in the sights yeah um i i don't think so so

like these dudes have been like cooped up a little bit still weird dynamic of what to expect in this game a game that should be a great game you know if just these two teams we both think like we've connor and i both had these teams in the NFC championship game, you know, the Packers there, Connor has the Eagles winning the Superbowl. So like these are teams we think pretty highly of, and I think it's an important game for how the season goes. So yeah, I wish that I could throw Jordan Love longest into a same game parlay. Cause that'd be interesting to me.

So maybe it's just like overall yards because I think they can strike some big plays. 37 and a half is I think an interesting number there too and again that way you don't have to play whack-a-mole with the receiver and figure out who it's going to be it's just someone's getting an explosive and love's going to be a part of that for sure so that's one of my favorite looks and i'm i'm super bullish on davante smith this year just hoping he gets more use in the slot so like i you could sell me on some davante smith overs alts stuff like that that'd be a leg that i'd be looking at for sure what about uh christian watson to have a 30 yard reception that's like i don't know what that is it's like i think plus 300 i think plus 200

i don't know yeah yes definitely i thought that was for two that's only for one just any of those um all right so i put one together here with the no sweat if you want to use it i don't know if you guys have any thoughts on anyone you like i did christian watson 30 plus charity reception wicks under two and a half receptions and then josh jacobs 125 plus rushing and receiving um it's 23 to 1 i don't know mean, it's free 10 bucks. So yeah, anything you want to add or anything you like? Well, I like the three legs. The slots are more of an eight leg guy. Yeah.

I mean, really, I mean, it's one game, so, you know, three can, three can get you by. That's kind of enough to watch. Kind of like having guys on both sides. That way, you know, I don't get lulled to sleep whenever the other team gets the ball. Yeah. So maybe a bunch of Smiths. Clip that. Slop like having guys on both sides.

Unfortunately, we don't have – I had another one of those earlier today too. We don't have a producer. I was like, oh, dude. What did I just say? Yeah. Yeah. I always try to watch that when I have to say like explosive uh run rate

um yeah about explosive runs but like explosive rush rate i try to say because it sounds less bad i don't use the word penetration at all just because of that because i'll definitely mess that up you're gonna dance around some stuff uh connor do you a couple more uncorrelateds did you have some other stuff you i did the pickings under four and a half 70 yards and then real quick i combined basically everything we talked about for a quick milli parlay um on fan fan duel three bucks doing a million um so it's jameson under three and a half 70 plus yards montgomery 100 rushing yards mclaurin under 60 and a half seven plus receptions pickings under four and a half 70 plus yards montgomery 100 rushing yards mclaurin under 60 and a half seven plus receptions

pickens under four and a half 70 plus yards and then kyler 300 plus passing yards to round it off for high slop three to three dollars and one cents to win 998 000 um not that bad you know could do pretty good i mean these uncorrelated to just like get so, I mean, the numbers on these getting, I couldn't even do a fourth one because there was too, like the odds were too crazy, which is like. Yeah. They wouldn't even let you put it. Yeah.

Yeah. What I always do is just put it to over to a million on the to win and it'll bring up the, it'll bring up the price on the other side where you get a payment. And like, yeah, sometimes there'll be like, you can only bet 7 cents. So they wouldn't let you do it. Yeah. What's the minimum 10 cents? I think the minimum minimum i think 10 cents is the lowest they'll let you do man maybe i just need to make like a bot that like enters in like a thousand of these for like 10 cents each like i mean eventually i'm gonna hit a million right i mean that it's just math right yeah that's what i was thinking with the science fingers is um just get a list of you know i'm saying like 17 and then round robin

by eight but you would have to have some thing put that in i mean you couldn't physically do it to get all the combinations but like if you had a bot then at some point you're gonna win a million dollars because like that some some night eight of those guys are gonna hit a home run it's just you don't know which night so we can do the same thing with touchdowns i'm going to win a million dollars. Cause like that some, some night, eight of those guys are going to hit a home run. It's just, you don't know which night. So we can do the same thing with touchdowns. I'm going to the drafting sports book and Wrigley tomorrow. So I'm going to fire another round Robin alt parlay. I did one,

I think last weekend with the dub club crew, I'm going to fire another one. I'll be with, you know, Steve and a couple other guys there watching some college football. But I mean, I don't really know anything about college football, so I'm just going to bet on the NFL while we're there.

Yeah, no, that's fun. I went there when I was there in July. Dash and Lou, shout out you guys. That was an awesome night. But I didn't have a great time. I bet a bunch of home runs and the game ended 1-0. That was tough. Tough to watch.

I enjoyed the Beards. Wrigley Field was fun. The DraftKings book was nice. So it was a great time. Love it. Love it uh i said like just a i don't know i think we could be seeing over in jacksonville miami um with that i think so yeah there's just a bunch of different ways to go about it in terms of like just i think lawrence to throw a pick lawrence to throw like over on attempts over on completions 250 plus nice numbers for a chain tyreek scores a

touchdown you can get into like 30 plus uh 30 to 1 and pretty quickly there without doing uh too too many crazy crazy things again the correlated parlay so that's why it's not uh you know 100 to 1 but those are those are way less fun i like the uncorrelated stuff too i want to like rapid fire some sacks for you guys real quick before we take off i think it's going to be really interesting i i'm i'm wanting to see if what happened last night in that game and how that first series for baltimore went are they going to start to hold all teams accountable to that offensive line formation thing where like you know the ravens got flagged three times basically in a row on not allowing that tackle to be kicked out a little bit.

Because if they're going to make those guys square up along the line, I think you're going to see some pretty big sack outputs occasionally here. That could be a thing to watch a little bit. So unfortunately not a ton of books are offering sacks, so I don't make these official plays. Just some good matchups here. You want to fire off any of these vikings that you possibly can get uh andrew van genkel jonathan grenard uh daniel jones pressure to sack rate is like north of 30 which is

basically double league average uh flores loves to blitz like 50 of the time i absolutely love those guys so like they're like plus 110 over a quarter sack so even if they get a half a sack and share it uh you're still cashing that matthew judon now in atlanta with all the offensive line issues that pittsburgh has going into week one i don't care if it's fields or uh russell wilson they both take sacks at a crazy rate uh most of the interior offensive line of the issues for pittsburgh but that's going to have a trickle down effect judon plus 114 for over a quarter sack, so he just needs to get a half sack here, and he's cooking with gas. Jalen Phillips in that game in Miami that I like, same thing, over a quarter sack, plus 135. Do not like that offensive line this season in Jacksonville.

Phillips way ahead of returning. We do think he's going to be back, and he's ready to destroy. And then my guy, Boye Mafe in Seattle seattle again i want to be bullish and long on anything mike mcdonald in seattle against that beat up not so good denver offensive line i think mafe gets uh home for at least a half a sack plus 124 so those are all basically plus money for guys to just get a half a sack which i i love to have those on draft kick so sprinkle those out there too if you want a little bit more defensive sweat. Hell yeah. My parting thought is like in draft day when they got the little post-it note crumpled up when he's about to go and finalize the draft pick.

Right now my post-it note says Andre Yoshivas overs no matter what. And so there's no lines yet. T Higgins, not going to play doubtful Jamar chase. If he does play, it's going to be limited against the crappy Patriots. I don't know what the line is going to be at high twenties. I'm all in mid thirties. I'm probably, I'm betting it strong plus alts.

I think I would balk at like high forties. That's probably where I'd balk and not play the over. So TBD. Sounds like Jermaine Burton's like falling asleep in meetings or something. Like I don't know what's going on with that kid. So he's not going to be not involved. It's Yoshi for sure. Who was that?

Who did you just say? Jermaine Burton, the kid from Alabama. Like they keep talking about like his maturity and like he's got to make it through a practice. Like there's just a lot of like – He wasn't even going to be active. They said maybe like he might've be a healthy scratch. So it's Andre Yoshi bus season.

Beyond that, I think it's like, I think Trenton Irwin, maybe like, I don't know. I mean, it's, it's real sweaty.

So I don't know. I think, and Yoshi bus, they're just nonstop talk. I mean like all off season. And that was with chase and with Higgins. Like he was their starter in three wide receiver sets, which they play a ton of 11 personnel whenever Burrow's healthy.

So I don't know. We'll see. I'll get 100 plus. Yes. No matter what I'm betting that I don't care what the numbers are. I'm betting that just regardless. So just for vibes. Yeah.

For the vibes. Yeah. Yeah. A hundred plus two tutties. Feels right. Bring it back with Hunter Henry, under three and a half receptions, over 30 yards, something like that.

Who's catching passes in New England? We've got to figure it out. All right, we usually ask for questions. I didn't even ask you for questions. Some of you haven't. We didn't have time. We have a lot of stuff this year but yeah always jump in let us know your thoughts we have time we'll get to as many as possible we appreciate you guys hanging out again four four bets on youtube uh move the line anywhere listen to

podcasts find slop on twitter at slop rules uh lots of great content over on youtube channels that slop has still we're still doing dingers. Uh, yeah, yeah, yeah. There is a Millie parlay out right now. All we need is eight guys. That's it.

To hit a home run on the same day. And it's like $2 to get a million. I'll never not have one of those. Every day. Two baseball teams, 32 teams, eight guys, one time ever.

That's all you need to hit it. You know what I mean? And I did the math. It's like $2 every bet. That would be 500,000 days it would take you to lose a million dollars. We're not going to even make it anywhere near that. So we're good, dude. The math checks out.

That's good math. They don't even play baseball every day. No. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, exactly. We don't even like half the year, we don't have to worry about it. Yeah. We won't even like half the year. We don't have to worry about it. Yeah, we won't lose any money on these. So I like that logic for sure. So check out again, the betting subscription at four for four.

Get in the discord, get all the official plays, all the things that we're doing all season long. We appreciate it very much. Before you go, let us know your favorite prop of the week. We'll be back on Wednesday looking at our favorite week two bets. And then same time, same place next week, 3 p.m. Eastern, right here for Prop Drop for Slop and Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks, everyone.