Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 1 PROPS | Top Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: September 10, 2022

Experts Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo share their top Week 1 NFL player props. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their predictions.0:00 Intro5:05 Connor Bet #1 6:56 Pat Bet #1  11:23 Ryan Bet #1 14:08 Connor Bet #2 17:32 Pat Bet #2 19:14 Ryan Bet #2 22:28 Connor Bet #3 24:36 Pat Bet #326:40 Ryan Bet #329:41 Connor Bet #431:51 Pat Bet #4 34:54 Ryan Bet #4 38:54 Q+A 46:00 Thrive Fantasy Picks48:33 OUTROGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMove the Line: Prop Drop is sponsored by Thrive Fantasy. Use Promo Code PROPDROP when signing up & you will receive a 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3RQQHRuFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK#nfl #sportsbetting #props

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Thrive Fantasy. I am Ryan Noonan. We'll be here in this space every week talking about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is player props. Live 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving you our favorite props of the week and taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe first so you don't miss a show, and then jump in the chat. Let us know what you're considering for week one, what looks you have, anything you're on the fence about,

or if you want to heckle us with our picks. Happy to handle that at the end of the show. Joining me here, as always, from Vegas and on very, very little sleep, but hopefully a little bit more energy than he had at the top of the last show. Connor Allen, how we doing? Never been better. Honestly, Vegas is the best. It's a lot of fun, but I'm going to have to go a little bit of a hot take here.

I think I mentioned on the other episode, betting sports in Vegas sucks. It is the worst thing ever. After you have mobile apps, it is awful because I have to go to different sports books and register for the app or I have to go to the kiosk like scroll through all their stuff. Awful. So I'm very much out on Vegas as being a good sports betting place now after being spoiled with, you know, six apps in Illinois. What kept you up all night then if you weren't up betting on God knows what? Well, I was getting demolished on Twitter for liking an Allen Robinson over and I was getting dragged for 24 hours straight. So I was just crying by myself in a corner, playing some craps, usual Vegas stuff.

Oh, man. Also joining us every week in this space is the man behind the Mayo Media Network, the Pat Mayo Experience. Of course, none other than the man himself. It is Pat Mayo. Pat, how are we doing today? Oh, I'm doing much better.

I recommended Cam Akers in your DraftKings captain spot because I thought, yeah, good contrarian play. Maybe the how are we doing today? Oh, I'm doing much better. I recommended Cam Akers in your DraftKings captain spot because I thought, yeah, good contrarian play. Maybe the reports are off. No, it's just a way to lose money. Yeah, not great, but entertaining football. Excited that we finally have some actual games to watch and talk about, although we're still a little bit in this spot in speculating on week one stuff because we don't have any data game points yet. But again, Pat pat remind the viewers what they need to do to the like button they need to smash it and sub to the channel and download the pod to do it all help support the show appreciate it and then again two episodes of move the line

each week both available on youtube and in podcast form on addition to the obvious the prop drop here our game previews with connor john dagel and myself is live on Thursday night, 7 p.m. Eastern, leading you into Thursday night football. Again, go check out last night's show. We have nine bets in there for you for week one. Before we get started, I want to tell our listeners more about our friends at Thrive Fantasy and really how great and a unique opportunity there is to make money over there, specifically this week.

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a share of the prize pool. They have $350,000 in guaranteed prize money for week one. They're featured contests. I mean, this is, you got to get over here. It's $25 to enter. It's 250,000 guaranteed and it's 50K to first. It is 12% filled as of a half an hour ago. Okay. It's paying out like the top 25% or so. It's not even close to being filled. Get over there. Use the promo code prop drop. When you sign up today, you're going to receive a 100 instant first deposit match up to 250 so you sign up use prop drop you'll have 500 instantly start firing at this bad boy it is going to overlay if we can get it even close to 50 or 60 i don't know what they were thinking here they went a little week one. We want to help our friends get this closer to filled.

And again, help you better your chances of winning a ton of money. So download Thrive Fantasy on the App Store or Play Store or go on the website thrivefantasy.com. Yeah, I mean, 10% yesterday, it's up to 12 and a half. I'd be surprised if we get there. We're like 48 hours out. But on to week one. These are live lines. it's up to 12 and a half i i'd be surprised if we get there we're like 48 hours out but um on a week one uh these are live lines prop bets available for you to bet on right now we're not

giving out any stay lines our goal is to do our best to make sure that you can get the same line in price or as close as possible as what we did connor if you are ready you can get us started yeah let's do it all right so my first one um you know you guys are gonna think that i'm really fun I'm really fun. I'm going to have a bunch of unders today. So we got Mike Gusecki under 32 and a half receiving yards. You know, at this point, I don't really think that he, you know, matches a lot of what they want to do on offense. You know, there's trade rumors in the off season. And if you're looking at what we think that office is going to be, it's probably going to be run heavy. And then they want a tight end to block and he doesn't block and so we saw in the preseason you know he's playing with slash behind uh durham you know smith and uh you know i just don't think he's going to be used at all right now so you're looking at

30 some receiving yards our projections have him right around there but the reality is i think that his floor is just way way lower like i think i think that he could be getting like one to two targets per game uh versus you know like getting 33 reception or 33 receiving yards. He would have to be super efficient on that. So, you know, I'm, I'm pretty comfortably taking that under. And I think that this is, this, he might be a guy that like, we don't even get props for after a couple of weeks, just because he's like not even seeing the ball. You know, we talked about him last week on the show and we're shorting him on the season long standpoint question from Dane here in the chat thoughts on a juiced under three and a half receptions. Do you like that as well? Yeah, I looked at that

pretty hard. I mean, I just don't think that it matters either way. I mean, I think that you can bet both of them to be honest, but if you're, you're laying less juice on the arts, I probably prefer that. In that situation. Cause I have one that sort of correlated in the same way. Like that is the prime opportunity for a same game parlay. Like if you're going to correlate stats together under, under on that, just find them on Gusecki and go that way and get paid like plus two 70 on the money. Oh yeah.

That's, that's sharp too, for sure. Yeah. Good call. Again, you can do the same game parlays in a intelligent way that you're still setting yourself up,

but they're not, they don't have to just be donkey plays where you're chasing the dragon on these crazy bets. If you're smart and correlating, like Pat said, there's definitely advantageous ways to get out there. Pat, first bet for you, bud. That's what I'm doing. I'm correlating a parlay here. And I couldn't find it on DraftKings Sportsbook of the rushing attempts.

Elijah Mitchell was right around. He's at 15 and a half at plus 105 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I don't love that one. I do think that he goes over. My numbers suggest something differently on that, unfortunately, so I'm not going to go against my numbers, but I do think that he has a very good game. The Bears pass defense, at least their pass rush, much better than their run defense, and as a seven-point favorite, even with a Russian quarterback, which should allow for more yardage for Elijah Mitchell, he had to be more efficient with those running lanes. I have Elijah Mitchell anytime for more yardage for Elijah Mitchell. He had to be more efficient with those running lanes.

I have Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown parlayed with Elijah Mitchell over 70 rushing yards. It pays three to one. I like both of those independently. You can have the anytime touchdown at plus 125 for Elijah Mitchell in this game. I mean, you can even throw some more if you think there's going to be an onslaught from the Niners rushing attack. You know, no kiddle. I mean, that hurts their blocking. more if you think there's going to be an onslaught from the Niners rushing attack. You know, no Kittle. I mean, that hurts their blocking.

No center. That hurts their blocking. But it does seem like Debo is still, I don't want to say debilitated with a hamstring issue. It's been lingering now. I just don't think that we see Debo get his like eight carries. And I don't think that they're going anywhere else. You're going to have Lance carrying the ball like Lance over under right now, eight and a half rushing attempts in this game.

That's even money. I like the over of that, but just Mitchell over the 70 yards, that's three to one. If you want to put on Trey Lance over his rushing yardage total, I like that as well. That gets it up to six to one.

You can even do something sneaky too. If Lance is going to be rushing this much, they're not all going to be designed runs. A lot of them are going to be take off after the first read isn't there. He going to start running and the bears have the best adjusted pass sack rate in the league last season so you could throw like three plus sacks from the bears onto that all of a sudden we're up to like 14 to 1 you can see you know and how i lose my money every single week because i get too greedy with this stuff but i feel like all those things

can work in unison with one another and then you get the multiple payouts from it yeah they're essentially like we talk about showdown lineups if you're playing dfs where you're like your showdown lineup has to tell a story right but like theoretically your same game parlay should be doing the same you want to think about you know a game environment and how things are going to play out and kind of build from there and we saw last year right like when elijah when Elijah Mitchell is healthy and in the lineup, they love that dude. And they fed him and fed him and fed him. The only time we really started to see Debo start to mix in and even some of the other running backs was when he was dealing with some injury issues. So game one, he's ready to go. We're very much down on the

Bears Connor. So I have no problem. And also looking at some probably bad weather, possibly some rain, which again, you know, not massive winds that are an issue here, but I think we see even more of a ground attack here from San Francisco. I like that. Yeah. And when you look at it, like he only ended up with the 11 attempts against the Rams and the NFC

championship team. And I think, I feel like that's affecting his numbers right now. I mean, he was the average less than two yards per carry. It was tough to run on the Rams last season, but all of the other games where he was healthy before that, even in the playoffs, 17 carries 27, 21, 21, 22, 27, 27, eight the week before against Arizona. That was the week he got hurt. So he's only gone under 17 once in his past. What is that? Five, eight games. And this is a situation where there're seven point favorites so yeah i like all of the overs on mitchell this week yeah there's there's some sharp people in

the space who took unders on mitchell's and i i just don't get it at all because like for all the reasons you mentioned and beyond that like when he did start he was getting 87 plus of the carries of every single week like who who is going to steal carries from him? You know, I just don't understand what other guy that they really believe in at this point. Maybe Tyrion Davis Price eventually, but, you know, all reports are that Jeff Wilson's the number two running back who, you know, I don't think that they're really going to give too much work to.

I mean, Mitchell just proved that he's like, you know, I think more talented than the rest of the roster at this point. So barring, you know, an injury, which is possible, but in this week, I just don't think it matters. I think the overs there are a great look. If they're looking at 32, 35 carries, probably for the Niners here in this game, I think we're comfortably feeling like Mitchell's getting at least half of

those. And, you know, even if we're seeing a pretty hefty game from Trey Lance on the ground too, which I agree with Pat, like even at eight and a half, if you're getting even money on that, I like that. Look, he, with that game with the nine or the Cardinals, I think last year's first start, we were all salivating. He went over his rushing number, like seven and a half carries, like the first, you know, early couple of minutes of the second quarter.

So no problem with that one whatsoever. First play for me, Justin Jefferson. I booked this at 79 and a half on DraftKings. It's still really right there, 81 and a half, minus 105 on DK2, so love that number. I just thought we would see Justin Jefferson in the 90s, 90 plus all season, and I think we've been all over it, and I think the drumbeat with the pro Viking stuff has been really loud all offseason. It's really centered around Kevin O'Connell, just kind of moving this offense into the 21st century,

getting away from those really boring under center base formation, run heavy snaps. And Jefferson is obviously dynamic after the catch. If they're going to move them around and do some different things, I think it's going to be really exciting. They were 23rd in pass rate last year, and he averaged 95 yards per game last year. Led the league in deep

targets and air yards we know that the big plays are there great games last year against green bay i think it's a tough matchup but again tough matchup last year he went for 169 the last time they met last year in minnesota too so i don't think we need to overthink this one very much our projections is in the low 103 range. So anywhere up until 90, comfortable going over on Justin Jefferson. No Jair Alexander in that game, by the way. He will be playing this time. Correct.

Massive, massive. One of the best corners in the league for sure. So at the end of the day, we would have probably said that if we had any sort of reluctancy to chase Steph Diggs or Gabe Davis last night with Jalen Ramsey. And I think good offense can be really good defense.

So no problem with Jair, who I love. I think the backers defense is going to be awesome. But I think Justin Jefferson is on his way to a special season. Yeah, I think the number is probably, I don't know. I mean, I don't know if I can get behind our projection of 103, but I think, you know, maybe five to 10 yards short. I think like over under 90 makes a little more sense. So, you know, 79 seems a little yards short. I think like over under 90 makes a little more sense. So, you know, 79 seems a little bit short.

Yeah, that's fair. Now I'm trying to figure out what do I have Jefferson at my projections? Probably not as high because I use a lot of like I kind of downgrade everything because unders just hit more than for sure anything else. Where are we at here with Justin Jefferson? Now I can't even find him. Oh, there he is. I have him at 84 yards is his medium projection, just as a contrast to that.

Yeah, so that's probably, and that was probably being not a bettable edge per se. Yeah, again, I think this week we're looking at our prop tool. We're leaning over on a lot of stuff, which is problematic too, right? So I think we're trying to proceed with caution, not following the tool blindly and trying to understand where can we find some edges here when we have some things

that maybe we lean over that aren't a bettable edge. Maybe we need to be looking the other way for sure. But that's not represented in my card for this show, but we'll figure it out as we get there. Conor, bet number two. My second one today, Marcuscus valdez scanling under three and a half receptions uh the the chiefs wide receiver situation is super murky i mean mbs has never really been a volume based guy i really expect like him and hardman to kind of run a lot

of clear out routes um with you know juju and kelsey uh soaking up a lot of targets underneath and this one could come back to bite me if you know mbs's role is a little bit different than what i expect but i think there's enough wiggle room here where at three and a half receptions that we should be okay um you know barring him like running you know basically juju's routes essentially that's what i would think would be a kind of disaster for this prop but other than that we projected for 2.4 reception so our projections are really low on him uh you know i know some others in the space are as well so i think that at three and a half perceptions you know minus 110 i able to find that at mgm it's a pretty solid look there on the under yeah how do you have that shaken out obviously even

mahomes himself has said it's going to be something that fantasy owners are going to have a problem with all season it's going to be you know matchup based and again it feels like they just went out and it's more than just a one for one Tyreek replacement. They just essentially tried to, you know, quality, you know, quantity over quality here. What do you, how do you think this shakes out? I think that the move would be just a, if they're going to offer three and a half every single week. Now, if it goes down, that means you're winning your unders every single week. So that's good news, but it's just one of those ones that you would want to blindly play.

There's going to be weeks where it's going to be like, oh, six for 200 for Marquez Valdez Scantling. OK, and then it'll just be zeros for five weeks in a row. So I'm on board with the under every week on that,

unless they really do show us that all of a sudden it's like, oh, no, he's going to get seven, eight targets a game. And even then, like most of his targets are so deep down the field that they're not the highest catchable rate balls in the world. I really like that game.

And unfortunately, all the props have been stricken off the board of that in the Packers game for the receiving props, because we just don't know about Zach Ertz. We don't know about Rondell Moore plays it's not like A.J. Green's not gonna play 90 to 100 percent of the snaps he's going to be out there like is any time touchdown is three to one like it just seems like people forgot how much he was used in this offense last year yeah we want to call him dusty A.J. Green and remember that you know that he's just not the separator that he was. But it doesn't matter. Like you said, he's on the field for 95%, 98% of the snaps. Gosh, I've seen prize picks from other places out there that have numbers on them.

He's in the low 40s. So I would love to see something hung out there in the books soon. Again, we know what Arizona wants to do defensively. They are going to blitz a ton. They are one of the blitz-heaviest teams in the league. Their best pass rusher, Chandler Jones, is now in Las Vegas. They probably are going to have a dinged-up J.J. Watt, if they even have J.J. Watt at all.

They're going to have to drum up some pressure here, and blitzing Pat Mahomes is something that I wouldn't want to spend a ton of time doing, but they're going to have to do it. The secondary is terrible. The majority of their guys, excuse me, that are going to play this week are among the bottom third in PFF's grades. It's a dumpster fire of a secondary. So I like some of these things here.

But again, because we don't know how it's going to shake out, I think Connor's on the right side, kind of leaning under until we get a feel for that. So Pat, bet number two. I was thinking that same game and it's along the same sort of lines. Like, yeah, we expect the Chiefs to jump out in this game. If not, then, you know, this one's in a lot of trouble, but it tends to go under James Connor under 13 and a half rushing attempts. They like to use them in the passing game for reasons that I'm not quite sure of.

They like to use them on the ground in goal line situations because he was taking away those touchdowns from Kyler Murray. But you have the Kyler effect. I think they'll mix in a little bit of, you know, Benjamin at certain points to be a pass catcher. And just taking Connor off the field is great here. So as long as this game isn't tied at half and Arizona remains in these close spots, then you're going to see Connor rush the ball. But his yards per carrier, just absolutely atrocious. And that's not what they want to do in this offense is run him into the ground.

So I really like that. It's currently minus one. What was it? Yeah. Minus 110. James Connor under 13 and a half carries. And I'm in on it. We're at 13.7, Connor.

So it feels like one of those examples that i talked about earlier like if it projection median projection is that close probably should be leaning under uh all times especially week one when we have a little bit more variance than normal yeah i mean there's also i think a chance that they get like you know benjamin involved a little bit too on the ground and like just use connor that past game role um you know like pat said there that you know they like to use Connor in that past game role. You know, like Pat said there that, you know, they like to use him in. So if that kind of shakes out too, you know, you're at you're siphoning away a couple of carries from him in those

situations. I think that he could, you know, easily hit the under here and be close to like 10 carries rather than, you know, 13, 14, 15. Yeah. I haven't projected, I haven't projected at 11.7. So this is why this one stuck out to me in such a big way. Yeah. That makes sense. No problem with that one. I think the folks are not going to like my next one because no one likes Zeke Elliott. But I'm going to take an over on Zeke Elliott carries at 12 and a half.

Posted this for subscribers at plus 104 on Caesars a couple of days ago. The number hasn't moved, but we got a little bit more juice on it. But it's still available on DraftKings at minus 110. He topped this number in six of the first seven games last year before the week nine knee injury. And I know we don't really agree with the establish the run thought here, but they are going to. I think the talks of it are something that we need to believe because there are so many questions at the pass catching positions here, I think they're going to lean on the running backs. Very similar to Green Bay.

I think they really need to get their best 11 on the field. And that involves both running backs. And it sounds like we saw a piece over on The Athletic this week about a sizable increase coming with 12 personnel to running backs, where it allows them to run even more. And I think Zeke is going to be in the spot where especially now week one he's coming in as healthy as he's probably going to be all season uh we know we saw all the cut-ups on instagram and all those things this season where zeke is healthy

it's not going to be more healthy than week one i think they try to lean on him this tampa bay defense is not the elite run-stopping unit that it was last season when they came out and just threw to avoid running against them. They've had some massive losses on the defensive front that are going to make them a little bit worse this season. So I'm not scared necessarily about the matchup here. I think their shot to really hang in this game is to kind of control the game and run a little bit more. So we have a tiny bit higher, 13.6 carries.

I've seen some other sources in the 14 to 15 range would love to see what pat has but um over 12 and a half carries for zeke i got him at 11.7 so i see this game a little bit differently than you do but i think the logic completely tracks out with that i see like without running a projection system the reason that i keep bringing this up is because ever since i started using my projections once i just you know theoretically went in punched in numbers of like oh this is the split here's how i think it's going to work you always just think overs are going to hit all the time um and that you inflate that in your head now like logically i can see i'm getting like 19 carries in this game why not right hey if they even have a shot connor they're probably gonna

have to lean on z yeah i mean well I mean, well, wait, hold on. think that our back and forth prior to us playing it officially was you know do they know or do they like is that what they think that the Tampa Bay run defense is not as good so they're not going to pass the ball as much I think that that's also a concern you know I mean they were they were sharp enough to go super pass heavy last year um but I don't know I think that was kind of my one concern and obviously betting on a guy like Zeke I don't know I'm just I'm not really super into it but I did tail I do like the play I do lean over uh i just think that those are some of my initial concerns yeah see like i said the boomers would hate the zeke play um again we got it at plus money still minus 110 on draft kings i think it's still in play um but i understand why someone would be reluctant to

chase it connor bet number three and my third one uh josh jacobs under two and a half receptions uh and this one comes in a little bit lower than our projections here. We have projected for 1.7. They brought in Amir Abdullah to be their, you know, quote, James White pass catching guy. And they also are talking about mixing in some Amir White kind of an early down. So I think that Jacobs, you know, main out to go over on this was to like have some screens, maybe some like, you know, be involved in the pass game on early downs. Whereas now I think we're going to see zamir white mix in on early downs plus amir abdullah takes the passing downs i think that the under two and a half receptions here

it's like there's a little bit of juice minus 140 at mgm we projected for 1.7 receptions this is another situation which again we could be totally wrong jacobs could see 80 of the work you know amir abdullah could never play it could be a geo b Jacobs could see 80% of the work. Amir Abdullah could never play. It could be a Gio Bernard situation that we saw in Tampa last year where we thought he would take pass work. But I think that based on everything we've been hearing, as well as him getting some good run in the preseason, kind of points to him at least sharing the workload here in the backfield.

Yeah, it's a situation I want nothing to do with, so I have no problem fading unders here on the pass-catching core. catching core what do you think pat i just don't know enough about the situation i have a very bad grasp about how the las vegas offense is going to work so they're just pure passes for me it's i'm not like being like oh well i mean if josh jacobs has like six catches i'd be like oh turns out they didn't use scrub amir abdullah as their pass they just use the guy who's always on the field for them. It's Joshua Daniels, right? So we historically, you know,

running the Patriots in the running back position has been really hard to get a grasp on. So, yeah, I mean, I think. We didn't see that. We didn't see that in Denver. It's true. True. Like we have, I think more of kind of a ambiguous, ambiguous talent level. Like I don't think we have anyone that's kind of standing out. So maybe that's part of it too.

So we'll see. I think I kind of agree with Pat. Like I would lean under on Jacob's passing every week, but we have no idea how they're going to use this backfield moving forward. And am I super worried about the, you know, Amir Abdullah's of the world?

We probably shouldn't be, but we'll wait and see what they, what they decide they want to do with it. Yeah. All right, Pat number three for you, bud it's a minus 130 but i really like this one it is the best projected discrepancy between a number that's listed and what i have my numbers telling me and now this blows up when the patriots jump out to like a 10 nothing lead on miami but i think that miami i don't want to say handles the Patriots. I just think that they're going to be able to score points on the Patriots and that front seven is going to get

the ball out very quickly. So Mac Jones over 30 and a half passing attempts. That seems like a really low number for a team. That's a three and a half point underdog coming into a game. You know that the Patriots are going to try to run the ball. Maybe they'll be successful. But with the big playability of Miami, if they can score a long touchdown early, a quick, fast touchdown, Miami was the third fastest first-half team last season in seconds per play. So they're going to be pushing the pace. That's not how the Patriots like to play whatsoever. But they might get forced into that situation.

See a lot of Mac Jones three-step dropbacks, boom, four-yard pass, four-yard pass, tight end, tight end, Jacoby Myers. So over 30.5 passing attempts, one of my best plays of the week. Connor, we both like Miami at 2.5. We dragged our feet on it, and then it got away from us for sure. And now it's on the other side at 3.5. But we're a tad over at 33.5 attempts for Mac. But I think Pat does a good job painting that picture. Yeah, I feel pretty cowardly for not grabbing the two and a half

when we both felt pretty good about it. But that's a good point. I hadn't seen that prop, and I really like that. That's a good look there. I guess the only concern is that, like you said, if New England gets out to a lead. But I don't know. I don't really see that happening here.

So I think that they're going to be forced into a kind of a neutral or a negative game script, forced to kind of open the ball up, especially in the second half too. You might be able to get like a good live bet number, you know, on an overpass attempts because I do anticipate them probably coming out at least, you know, neutral or run heavy. But until Miami gets a lead, you know, they might not have to open it up. So you might be able to even get a better number.

But I think there's still a good enough edge here that it's worth betting like pregame. Yeah. Good luck. Next for me, AJ Dillon, over 49 and a half rushing yards. This is available minus 110. I'm sorry, 114 out there. I took it at 46 and a half a couple of days ago. I'm okay with anywhere under 50. So I'm going to still give it out here. Again, Aaron Rodgers, similar to the Dow situation, talked extensively about having their best 11 on the field,

which involves both backs. I think we see a massive workload for Aaron Jones in the passing game, and we saw an increase in snap rate down the stretch last season for A.J. Dillon, really limited early in the year, but topped this mark in 60% of the games last year from week four to week 18, including both matchups against the Vikings. I think Minnesota has made some defensive additions this offseason, mostly in the secondary and at edge, not anything that's necessarily making me hesitate to attack them on the ground here as a problem for them last year. They allowed the fourth highest EPA per rush on the season. And again, with all

the questions that they have as well, Alan Lazard didn't practice again today. Looks fairly doubtful. I think they're going to lean on these backs and our projections have him a tad over 51. Again, not a huge edge, but I think we're a little light here. So happy to pound AJ Dillon, who I think is going to get a lot of work in both the passing game uh and on the ground so thoughts on aj dylan would you rather just take the 66 and a half rushing receiving that's a little so yeah 66 and a half i don't hate um because i think you're seeing his receiving yards right around there like 21 22 is that correct yeah yeah i i like both um i have no problem with that at all because i do think he's a better pass catcher than folks think he is.

I think he had like 35 catches last year, and I think they've talked a lot about that too. They were surprised by how good he is, how shorthanded he is, and they really want to use him this year. So, yeah, I think he has a pretty good workload. So I have no problem. If you're getting better juice on that, then, you know, say the minus 114 or something like that,

I have no problem chasing the cumulative yards. Yeah, that is – what is it? It's minus 115 right now draft kings okay yeah what are your thoughts there connor yeah it's interesting because you played it that way um again i totally agree with your logic but for the same reasons i played the aaron rogers under 23 and a half completions um you know kind of the same same logic i just don't think that they're going to be able to – I mean, Dylan has to be a focal point of their offense at this point. You know, I just don't see them really be able to, you know, move the ball really to much of the receivers there.

I don't know. I'm pretty much out on Sammy and Dobbs, you know, one of the two. And, you know, a little bit of Lazard out especially too. And Randall Cobb playing, I mean, just total dust balls in the field. So, yeah, I think Dylan Over is a great look. Also, I saw a two-and-a-half reception line pop at plus money. I thought that was interesting for Dylan, too, especially if we think that Minnesota can kind of elevate the game state there

and kind of like bring Green Bay into like a pass-heavy affair. But we'll see. Yeah. I don't hate that. I think we're a little more under on the Rodgers attempts, too, or completions 22 and change. So yeah, not a bad look there. All right.

What's your last one? All right. Last one for me, a guy that, you know, most people haven't really kept up with too much, Josh Reynolds. I took under two and a half receptions. Reynolds now on the Lions. He's like fifth maybe in the pecking order for targets behind Amon Ra, Hawkinson, DJ Chark, and DeAndre Swift probably. And, I mean, I just don't really see him even getting maybe –

he might not even get three targets. So, you know, at two and a half receptions here, I think he's a great look on the under for a guy like that. I don't know about that one. I mean, I think you're right. I think you might be putting a lot of stock into what Chark is up to. Maybe Amon Ra is going to take away a lot of those routes from Reynolds.

But as soon as he stepped in, like three was his like floor in terms of targets per week. It's going to be tough to get over that number. But like Goff likes him. It's weird. He just runs very simple routes. Goff's not very good.

Maybe if Hawkinson is asked to block you're going to see a lot of those hawkinson targets i think at least end up going filtered to josh reynolds because the defense has to account for alma mara saint brown they're not accounting for josh reynolds and he'll probably play like 90 of the snaps i'm interested to see how that's that secondary plays too like they were very vanilla last year a lot a lot of stuff underneath they've obviously upgraded the secondary with um chancel garden johnson and then with james bradbury coming over so they're definitely a better unit but uh yeah i mean under two and a half because there are a lot of mouse to feed is probably a good lean but it is one of those scenarios to pat's

point is like there are different mouse to feed in that offense and there was something there down the stretch they seem to use him more often than not uh which is pretty surprising it's like to see where he is in the pecking order as we get into the regular season so i don't hate the look um and that's bet mgm you said yeah bet him jam it's i mean it's another look and a lot of these are kind of like i'm betting unders on you know ambiguous situations and things that like you know there's there's just a lot of you know volatility with i guess so i think that that's just been my like, you know, there's, there's just a lot of, you know, volatility with, I guess. So I think that that's just been my kind of, you know, general lean early on in the season here that sometimes you're able to get value. And I think that this could be a spot forcing the unders cause you hate fun, but I'm making up for it pounding the overs for us,

Pat last one. Well, I'm actually going to end on an under, but I do have some overs that I do like, I'll throw those out here. They're're not the strongest plays but like my numbers love mitch trubisky over passing attempts of 33 and a half um that's plus 105 right now just logically that makes a lot of sense i think especially because he has bad accuracy so every time he doesn't complete a pass it stops the clock which really does help when you're trying to catch up from behind and continue passing down the field. Elvin Kamara over 14 and a half carries. That's minus 125 at Giraffe Kings. Josh Palmer over 28 and a half receiving yards against the Raiders. I like that. But the one I'm really kind of locked onto right now, and I feel like I'm getting set up because there's less juice on this than the over. It makes no sense to me my numbers agree with me

jacoby brissett under 29 and a half passing attempts pretty sure cleveland's going to try to run the ball 8 000 times in this game it's supposed to rain too i believe if i'm not mistaken that was in the forecast um yeah that's a that's a number that is a little high we're too high in jacoby brissett's attempts We have him just a tick over 32, but I agree. Why is that a 32? That doesn't make any sense. I would think that they would try to hide him or at least, again, run behind a great offensive line

and get this game over as quickly as possible. I think it's kind of a toss-up game. I'm kind of pro-Panthers here, but I don't think either team gets away from the other one where like Jacoby is going to be forced into this like super pass happy fourth quarter or anything like that. So yeah, I mean, I think you're seeing under 30 makes a lot of sense.

I mean, you're looking at a game that's basically a pick-em at this point, but it's going to be very close. So if that actually translates, now if Carolina gets up at like 17, it's like the Mac Jones thing. Well, Brissette's going to have to throw. That's just the case. But in a sloppy game, like you

said, could have some elements. But even if it was perfect conditions, the Bears are going to want to run down their throats. And that includes Jacoby Brissette at the same time. He's not a statue. He's not like a running quarterback by any means, but he will take off from time to time. I only have them at 58

plays in this game. 21 points scored. i have them at 58 plays in this game 21 points scored i have them at a rushing rate of 52 i actually think that rushing rate is going to be like 60 maybe higher especially if it goes their way it goes the browns way for sure bigger collapses onto himself um you're probably looking at 55 on the ground for sure so yeah i like that look is a good unders the mitch trubisky one very much aligns with our numbers too so i like that look as well so good logic behind the two he sucks so the stock the clock stops and uh you know they gotta try it again so no problem with that i'm very bullish on the bangles in this spot too the palmer one too is super low 28 and a half

is that it i didn't see that drop that's uh that's a seems really low for a guy that is going to play a bunch on a great offense so yeah i looked at palmer's receptions too which i was considering but it was starting to juice up so um yeah i like that too he's gonna be on the field a lot in a game that could very much go back and forth and have a lot of passing involved so all right uh last one for me i like both looks here i like both the over on the combined yards and this one popped um with nice juice i like over two and a half receptions for tony pollard it's minus 105 on bet mgm this is out there at caesars um at like minus 150. so we're getting a really nice number on mgGM here. I also on DraftKings took Pollard over 51 and a half combined yards because I think he is going to be involved in this game.

And we've talked about this a lot too. The drumbeat of having both their guys on the field is going to be a thing. Tampa Bay has been heavily targeted versus the running back position for two straight years. Over seven and a half targets per game to running backs. That is top five in the league, both 2020 and 2021. Again, we know we have the same defensive coordinator, same scheme, a lot of things. They're very predictable.

There are a lot of teams that when you look at kind of their man versus zone rates or their one high safety or two high safeties, that they are all kind of in the middle. Tampa Bay is a lot of zone, a lot of one high shell. We kind of know what we're getting with this team. And I think prioritizing the running back here is going to make a lot of sense. We've had a lot of Pollard in the slot talk and Pollard played a lot of slot receiver in Memphis when he came in. So this is not a stretch here for him to work there.

And because we're talking about Jalen Tolbert, who's had a bad camp and Noah Browns, all these other things, it looks like Michael Gallup is probably not making it back for this one, but even if he's in the game, I don't think this is a real problem here. Minus one to five is a really nice number. I think we see a lot of them caught four balls in this matchup last year in

week one, Tony Pollard over two and a half receptions. I mean, banging Cowboys over is what can go wrong, right? Nothing. Running back overs, all of them. All of them. No, I do like that look, though. I think that's solid, and he should be getting involved a lot in the passing game for all the reasons

you mentioned. So it's a good look. It's not something I'm personally playing, but I think it's probably the right side. I have a fun one from that game, if you want it. 66-1. Oh, boy. Let's hear it yeah well i have to figure out what the guy's name is again because i keep forgetting no no no it's a guy who won usfl mvps returning punts and kicks for them playing slot maybe uh what the hell is his name give me

a sec here uh i wrote it down no he, he's already dropped. Oh, yeah. Kevontae Turpin is 55-1 first touchdown, but he's also like, where is he? 10-1 anytime touchdown. I only say first touchdown because, you know, if they kick off or there's just a punt to them, he's going to have the ball in his hands. And I do think that he's so fast that they'll try to get tricky with him like out of a slot jet sweep whatever it might be i think he'll end up with like four or five touches in this game and he's super fast so it just takes

one missed tackle and he's gone to the house interesting yeah that's why i like the pollard over too because i think they're going to have to scheme the ball to him um the pollard on the yards too i think they're just gonna have to find ways for him to to get involved so uh they just don't have a lot of talent outside of these guys and you know we can argue the zeke stuff like he wasn't healthy last year down the stretch right so he might be washed and we'll find out real quick um and then you know i'm the donkey that took an over on zeke in week one but i think that um these kind of cover each other in a sense i think both of these game scripts uh maybe they both can win but i think one of them at least works based off of game state so kind of a wrap we've got our first uh first touchdown prop early anytime touchdown prop

ever yesterday kyron williams anytime touchdown at like 11 to one gets injured by the way during special teams gets injured on like the first play i mean talk about talk about a run bad didn't even have a shot like you know we couldn't even give our long shot a chance to get on the field and i thought we would have at least played a little bit but i mean who knows at this point we'll never know we'll always never know we're on the right side he would have played based off of how the game went right of course of course all right got a couple questions for you in the chat before we take off. Adam wants to know about Joe Mixon, over 69.5 rushing yards for Mixon. That's a pretty nice number, way off of our projections on Mixon, which are 93 yards.

Pat, any leans on Mixon? I just don't know what to do with the Steelers' defense, so it's a pass for me. Yeah. Kind of thoughts on Joe. Yeah. Again, kind of,

I really don't know what we see out of the Bengals offense here either, because they kind of like shifted like the Eagles a little bit. Like once Burrow got healthy, a little bit more pass heavy. And I just, I mean, I think that that would be awesome to see. I just don't know if we see that,

especially in this game where they don't really have to, you know, like I think that they can get away with running mix in, you know, 20 times and kind of come out of there with a touchdown victory. But it's kind of a stay away for me. We have Davis Mills over 210 and a half passing yards. Connor, friend of the show, Davis Mills.

We went to bang the under on Davis all year last year. We were a little over this at 233. Any thoughts on your boy here in week one? I like the over. I think Mills is going to go over this. I mean, I have reversed course, you know, after the initial under money season on Mills for like six, seven weeks when he was playing.

Just like the hardest defenses in the league. And the Colts defense should be obviously very, very good. But I think I have some questions about the defensive coordinator now, the more that we dug into it. And I think that, you know, Mills could be, they're probably going to be playing a negative game script here, probably passing a bunch. So I think that the over here is probably a decent look.

Pat, any thoughts on Davis Mills? I like the over too. I have him around like 240 yards in this game. If I was going to play him with the over i would actually look into the same game parlay of davis mills and cooks over together yeah makes a lot of sense now that game could be feisty i don't know i i just see i don't think so at all i don't know what they legalize something in the states and i wasn't aware of it like the colts are so illegal here for a little bit they're so much better and the texans are such a horrible it's the team they match up with the world like look at both their games last season

they couldn't move the ball on offense with davis mills and the colts just here let's hand it off to jonathan taylor you can't tackle him okay see you next week yeah they did run down the throat i just i'm trying to look at these well these wonky week one games because there's always one. It's the Bears. The Bears are the wonky game. Oh, God. I know. I don't want it either, but that's what it is.

Yeah. I was just leaning that way as to a possibility just because it's in the division stuff, so there's a little bit of familiarity versus something like that. But, yeah, I mean, bad weather in Chicago. You've got a West Coast team playing on the knee-high grass of Soldier Field. um versus you know something like that but yeah i mean bad weather in chicago you get a west coast team playing on the knee-high grass of soldier field uh anything could happen so yeah i think we're hope you're wrong i think you could be wonky as long as the niners hold on and take care of

that one so uh thoughts on jalen hurts over 229 and a half passing yards from adam here seems low um yeah let's see you can't you can't bet that like you we said what are you going to see if you Over 229.5 passing yards from Adam here seems low. Yeah, let's see. You can't bet that. We just said, what are you going to see? If you think that you know the answer to what we're going to see out of the Eagles, just think you're lying to yourself. No one knows what we're going to see. People are taking some serious positions, but I don't know.

That over could hit by 150 yards or be under by 100. For sure. I just don't like, that's why I like playing rushing attempt props, passing attempt props. I feel like that stuff is just, it's more projectable. Like if you have a sense of the game,

you're not really worried about the result at that point. Like, I don't know for, for, especially if the Eagles win big in this game, it's probably because they do a lot on the ground. Isn't it? That's what happened last time they played in the absolutely boat race them. And he ran for a ton of yards and barely played in the fourth. It's probably because they do a lot on the ground, isn't it? That's what happened last time they played,

and they absolutely boat raced him, and he ran for a ton of yards and barely played in the fourth. So, yeah, I mean, that could happen again too, right? I know a lot of people want to restore the roar and all those things, but, like, this team still sucks. The secondary is still really bad. I don't get it. What are they restoring the roar to?

Like, where was it previously at? Where was the roar? I don't know if the roar has ever happened right like they've what are we talking about like 1989 1991 i think it was last time they won a playoff game or even in the play it's just it's i mean is that the most fraudulent hashtag saying like then in sports right now i mean that's that's pretty pathetic you know what are they like 20 what 30 years at this point it's pretty bad yeah very hard player to project i have hurts at 204 passing yards right like i'm not like that's a huge under and i'm just still staying

away i'm like right lord knows and we're at 260 which i think is way aggressive and it's like i don't think either of us are any of us are comfortable there so yeah no no thank you uh brian wants to know our thoughts on gaseki on the season-long standpoint under 600 and a half yards on gaseki we took under his receptions i played that last week in our season-long show for some of the same reasons that connor pointed out just not on the field as much as we thought um it's a little a little light based on our projections but again i think our projections are wrong because I think that our projections still have been playing quite a bit. So I would lean there.

What are your thoughts, Connor? No, I agree. I think that also just like a general point about like, you know, we don't make our projections, but we use them as like kind of a baseline and a guideline to help

understand and like identify values potentially. But at the end of the day, there's some things that are just like, they're just off, you know, and based off things that we know or think we know. And, you know, I think that oftentimes, you know, our models just don't really factor that in right away. So especially too, after the first couple of weeks, our projections get a lot sharper, you know, when we have a little

bit more data to kind of run off of to get those like baselines good. All right. Makes sense. All right. Real quick. There are, again, in this Thrive contest thrive contest folks at the top if you did not listen thrive fantasy thrive fantasy.com uh promo code prop drop is going to get you um 100 instant deposit match up to 250 so again you can deposit 250 you'll instantly have 500 in your account they have massive overlay in this tournament this week week one tournament with 50,000 to the first place has 1,390 entries and there are 11,000 seats in this bad boy. So they are not going to fill it. So there's going to be a ton of overlay that which will be paid out because it is a guaranteed prize pool tournament. So again, use promo code PropDrop. And our friends over at Thrive are also telling us

that if you beat Connor and I, again, any of us, you don't have to win. You just got to beat Connor and I. You're going to get entries into their week two tournament as well, which again, based off of the numbers, I'm sure they probably back it down a little bit, but there'll probably be some overlay in that as well. So these free tickets worth $25 are going to be pretty interesting.

So Connor, again, folks don't want to join there. They had to pick 10 out of 20 props. Give me one or two that you like here that, that folks can get in on. Yeah. I mean, some like free squares here. Ezekiel Elliott over under touchdowns, one and a half. I mean, just take take taking the honor out to under there um there's uh I like Aaron Rogers under 265 passing yards that's like I think a good strategy for this stuff is comparing these two like domestic lines that are sharpened a little

bit more you know by uh by better so you know this is like in the 250s in most spots Keenan Allen under six and a half receptions you you're able to get plus money. I don't love that one because I think that that game could explode. But, you know, relative to the market, it's valuable. And then they have a Chris Godwin, 145 and a half receiving yards. I mean, I don't know. I guess I got to figure out what their rules are, whether he has to be active or play a snap. Or, I mean, if he plays, he's active or plays, like, I don't think that he's going to play that much.

So I think the under there is a pretty good look. If somehow that, you know, comes back to bite me and he like explodes i'd be pretty surprised but then they work him in slowly if he does play this week so we'll see that's just something to look for those those are the ones that stood out to me i don't know if you've looked into it yet noon but we will be in the streets we will be firing off entries at least one to two um you know i wanted to i'm i'm filling this thing are you maxing it or what i mean i'm it's 150. It's not going to fill.

Yeah. Right now, literally, if you enter it, you get paid. It's like, we, they have a thousand entries and they pay out 2,500. So it's like, uh, I don't even know a free roll at 50 K. I mean, basically like, uh, I'll just keep max entering, honestly, up until lock, depending on if they're going to keep paying at least a 50-50. I mean, that's too good a value to pass up. Yeah, and the interesting thing is because there are only 20 to pick from,

there is a little bit of game theory around which side you pick and some of those things to try to get the most points. Some of these things that are really easy, like the Zeke one, for instance, you're skewed massively to the under here, so it's not rewarding you as many points. But yeah, again, like it does feel like a free square. There's a lot of numerous touchdown props. And again, just taking under on the touchdown,

like a singular event, which is really hard to predict to Pat's point. Like it is, we want to find the things that are more projectable. Touchdowns are a very hard thing to project. So lots of those. I'm with you on the Rodgers thing. I think Rodgers under 265 and a half is probably a pretty good look.

That one actually is getting you plus money, essentially, on the under. So that'd be a look for me there. So again, thrivefantasy.com. Prop drops the promo code. Beat Connor and I. You get free tickets for week two. But again, 100% instant first deposit match up to $250 and massive, massive overlay.

So any questions on Thrive, hit us up on Twitter, 444football, anywhere you want to do, or hit us up individually. So good stuff as always, gentlemen. Pat, would you like to tell everyone where they can find your stuff? Pat Mayo Experience, audio podcast, video show, all up on the Mayo Media Network. Myself, Tower Tambolini. We're live earlier on Friday,

going through the entire DraftKings DFS slate. And I'll be back on Saturday with a full injury report, season-long rankings update, and a few props for the weekend as well over on PrizePix. So please tune into that and go sub to the channel right now. Love it. Sub to it. Lots of great stuff over there.

No matter the sport, Connor, what's going on with you? We have all the hay in the barn for week one. No, I'm just going to keep firing on more props. And, you know, Sharp Clark actually just released an awesome article on her site. It's free. It's like a matchup spotlight where he breaks down one game, like super in-depth. Very, very thoughtful guy.

Does some great work. Great analysis. So just publish that at 4-4.com. But, you know, otherwise, I'm just going to keep, you know, firing off props in our Discord. So hop in there and make some money. Clark's a stud. Good stuff as always.

Oh, you know what? I'm going to say 2 p.m. Eastern on Mayo Media Network on Saturday. My guy, our guy, really, John Kelly, is going to be live, breaking down the UFC 279. You may have some questions based on what's going on with this card right now. Seems like a lot of things going on. And I would, very few people in the space that I would want to help me suss that out than John Kelly himself.

So, guy's an absolute stud. Are you paying attention to what's going on with this in real time we're just someone that is not making weight i'm not a big ufc guy but i know there's someone that's trying to like i saw that there was stuff yesterday with dana white backing away like canceling the press conference and all that stuff i have no idea yeah so chimaev's in the main event he's like minus 2000 over nate diaz and he missed weight by 10 pounds so So Diaz only has once out. He only has one fight left on his contract and illegally.

He now doesn't have to fight Chimaev, which is the main event of a pay-per-view. He can just walk and get out of his contract too and get paid. Wow. So is he going to do that or what? Like what is it? What is going to happen? That's sort of like the debated breath right now.

It seems like there's two other fights that are off from people missing weight too. I don't really want to get in the ring with a dude who's missing weight by like 10 pounds. I don't know. I would think not, especially if I can get paid for it anyway. Yeah. Especially when you are a 13 to one underdog. Yeah. That's a good point.

And you can walk and still get paid and get out of your contract. I mean, that's, that's a pretty easy decision on my end, still get paid and get out of your contract uh i mean that's that's a pretty easy decision on my end but uh you know i'm also not in the ring every weekend or whatever every six months so god i would be such a terrible mma fighter if i can i'd schedule a fight that'd be fun i mean get you and uh you and you and uh daigle in the ring together no i'd take elliot in the ring i love such a punchable face i'd love to Daigle in the ring together? No, I'd take Elliott in the ring. I love such a punchable face. I'd love to get Elliott in the ring.

I know he's bigger than I am, but, God, that face is just made to be punched. But otherwise, yeah, that wraps us up for this week. So, again, check out everything on Mayo Media Network, everything at 444.com, 444.com slash plans for a betting sub. We'll have Producer Sal back with a prop for you next week. Tell you more about all the great things going on at 444. So for Pat and Connor, I'm Ryan.

We'll see you all next week. you