Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 10 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

Join us in this exciting breakdown of Week 10 NFL 2023 Player Prop Bets, where we delve into comprehensive predictions, top picks, and the latest odds! Our expert analysis focuses on key players such as Breece Hall, providing valuable insights for both seasoned bettors and newcomers.CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro5:08 DK Metcalf Week 10 NFL Prop Bet8:07 Garrett Wilson Player Prop Bet11:37 Trevor Lawrence Prop Bet14:14 How to Bet Ladders15:53 Chargers-Lions Bet23:12 Austin Ekeler Prop Bet26:20 Will Levis NFL Player Prop Bet Week 1032:32 Josh Jacobs NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bet46:03 Gross Prop Tease47:53 Gross Prop53:55 Audience Props1:02:20 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to the Smooth Line Prop Drop show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. We are live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday on our 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, giving out our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite prop look is for week 10. Week 10, we are here. You know, maybe something that's not on the board. There's a lot out there already. Maybe something you want to get our feel for.

I will try to get to as many of those questions as possible here at the end of the show. I always encourage you to join us live on YouTube. It's the best chance for you to get the same number and same price or as close to on these props as possible. If you do prefer the podcast version, you should be able to find it in your podcast feed on Friday evening. Subscribe to both this YouTube channel here on 444Bets and the podcast feed wherever

you find your podcasts so you don't miss a show. Free content, supporting it by subscribing, thumbs up, all those things go a long way in helping us and we greatly appreciate that. Joining me here as always, always on location, I feel like. Nice swanky hotel in the background here. We had a couple years ago, Connor, you spent five, six weeks in the armpit of America in a really dark, desolate hotel room. Now we're kind of a little swanky. It's just kind of moving up. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, I got older, made a little bit more money, and so now we're upgrading.

We're staying in the president and uh you know uh in the midwest you know so still not definitely not in the armpit america like bloomington illinois but you know a nice little hotel here for my last wedding of the year thank god uh i think we're at number six or seven i'm the best man though so i gotta give a speech tomorrow that'll be uh interesting just drink as much as possible beforehand i think that's that's the rule right like it is fucked much as possible beforehand, I think. That's the rule, right? Like get as fucked up as possible before you give the speech. Yeah, yeah. You definitely need to say something that his family or her family will judge him on, you know, something like that, or just sets the tone for the night.

And obviously for their future, it's definitely the good way to go. It's your role and responsibility. So I'm sure you'll crush it. Joining us again, as always, in this space, gentlemen from Od from odds jam you can find them on twitter at slop rules it is john high slop slop what's going on buddy how we doing today just living the dream boys living the dream the kids are out of school today so it's been a weird weird day but all that's behind us now because day's over pretty much now it's time to gamble it's time to go yeah I don't know why kids not home today I don't know why we got school here maybe we don't honor that uh that

holiday here in my school district or Illinois but who knows uh bizarre what it is hey it's all right it's a good time to gamble though and a good time to grab a betting subscription we've talked about this all the time this is kind of my time where essentially, you know, this is free. I'm trying to sell you on the stuff that's not free, but look, it's different right now. We're into week 10. We're almost at the end. Right. But not really because we bet into the playoffs and ends up going like 22 weeks or something crazy. So we're like, we're not even at a halfway point for like the football betting standpoint, but we've massively sliced the price for the betting subscription. Now, the betting subscription gets you access to all that we do. So if you're still playing DFS,

you're still grinding your season-long league or survival leagues, whatever you need, articles, tools, rankings, projections, all the stuff that we do at 444 is part of the betting subscription. Now you get the betting stuff as well. Gets you in the Discord. You're going to have access to Connor and I at all times of every day. All of our DFS guys, all that stuff, anytime you want. So we're already half price because of where we're at. So massively marked down. We have a promo code, BETS50.

B-E-T-S-5-0 gets you another 50% off of what's already reduced to 50%. You're looking at $ 62 to bet with us until the end of february we're also betting the nba daily we have articles on the site discord and the nba is pumping as well we have discord for you know any of the pick'em games we got a ponies chat in there now like you want to start to bet the ponies we got that any betting stuff that you need in our Discord is available to you. Discord alone is definitely worth this price. So 444.com slash plans, promo code bets50. Another 50% off. Again, $62 for a betting sub through February.

Insane deal. Check out the other episode too. If you like game previews, want to bet sides and totals, we touch on that here on the same channel on Wednesdays with myself, Connor and sharp Clark. Again, you can find that wherever you're listening to this one. So check out the betting sub again. Great,

great deal. I think it's an insane price, but you know, we want you to come over, dip your toes in the water, get these tackle props that we're doing, get Connor's unders that he doesn't want to talk to the slop about. You get all those in the discord and check that out so all right live lines no

stale bread all things for you to bet on right now uh connor you're gonna start first play for week 10 yeah i was gonna start i was gonna go with full unders today but you know i decided i woke up this morning and decided you know what i? I'm feeling generous. I'm going to give out some overs. So we're going to start off with an over here. I like DK Metcalf to go over 63.5 receiving yards in this spot. This is widely available. So it's DK, MGM, Caesars, Builder, you know, a lot of different spots here. I think this is an absolute eruption spot. So this is, you know, the second over I've played all week.

But I think that you can play the baseline. I think you can play the ladders here. A couple different reasons. Commanders allowing 10.9 yards per target to outside wideouts. Metcalf plays outside nearly 90% of the time. Leads his team in deep targets. Commanders are terrible at defending deep targets, allowing the most completions of 20 plus yards in the league and the third highest rate of deep targets. So I think it's a lot of different factors here where Metcalf hasn't been consistent. Undeniably, he's not been consistent this year. But I don't think the passing game has necessarily been consistent either.

So, you know, I think that all it takes is one or two big plays here, and he's going to get his chances. Like, and he's – not to mention, he's probably been matching up against, you know, maybe Emanuel Forbes, I think, who's like 5'6", and Dekat Metcalf is like, you know, 6 inches and 60 pounds on him and I think is as fast if not faster. So I think this is an absolute blow-up spot for Metcalf here. I know it's a little bit rare off-brand prop but at 63 yards uh I thought it was a little bit you know a lot of meat left on the bone there for a regular over yeah I like it

actually had DK on my list it was in consideration I just you've like shamed me into not betting that type of prop on the show or you know even pushing it out there so like um I'm on board here I think this is a good one slop I think he he knew the shirt was coming today if you people are just listening slop's got a fantastic real man bet over his t-shirt slapping connor in the face i think connor's reacting to that slap with the dk metcalf over i'm just glad to have connor on the side of the real men you know it's nice it's awesome over here he to love it. We're glad to have him. He just got here, Slob. All fairness, Connor's a young guy. We just became a man recently.

So now we're transitioning to a real man stage. So, Connor, congratulations, buddy. Big deal for you. Thank you. Yeah. Growing up a little bit, it's basically I've now changed my brand to being gross, nasty unders, like Chuba Hubbard under yesterday that got home for us uh and then random overs and alt overs and we're just gonna climb that ladder so it's a good

mix here also leanne from the chat mentioned you know woman bet too a slop yeah definitely not you know i was gonna say there is also a real women bet overs version well. Ooh. Ooh, okay. That's very inclusive. Love that. Just saying. We welcome everyone. Everyone. All genders. As long as you're betting overs.

Yeah, just overs. Yeah. That's the only – that's the line of demarcation. It's not gender. It's just overs. Everybody's welcome. Yeah. That's totally fair.

Slop, floor is yours, bud. First play for week 10. All right, so I got an under. I'm just kidding. Garrett Wilson. We're going to go Garrett Wilson again. Over five and a half receptions at DraftKings. I know this is Monday night, and I know, but, like, this was my favorite one.

So, dude, he's been targeted, like, a thousand times every game. Like, if you watched the other night, he just gets peppered with targets. Going back through his last three, 13 targets, 13 targets, 12 targets. His line is five and a half at, like, plus 114 at draft games right now. Like, that, you go over five and a half, he's going to get six. I think the Jets are going to go behind. I mean, the problem is their defense is good enough to kind of keep them around so they don't have to sell out and throw.

But I think the Raiders are going to beat them. So since we got that going on, either way we get home, though. It's six receptions. It's nothing. He did this like the third quarter last time. And that's with Zach Wilson throwing the ball. I mean, sometimes the ball gets 15, 20 feet over his head. Like there is that.

But, again, six receptions, no big deal. That's easy. Love it. I mean, I liked it last week. And I like we're getting plus money on here too. So this is good stuff. Connor, are you coming all the way over on the over chain this week? What do you think about an over tied to Zach Wilson, the quarterback?

Yeah, I mean, I can't get there. I understand the rationale. And, you know, you got there last week and I get the volumes there. But, you know, if you're getting 13 targets and you're still only catching six to seven of them, you know, an off game where you only get nine to ten might be like a two catch game. So that's my only concern. You just want to take an under honestly I do I did take it under in that game uh AOC under 207 I think is one of my my favorite bets of maybe the last few weeks you love AOC yeah that's I I

brought that up once again oh let's get right into the trenches, Connor. He's underdied. You want to talk about the debate the other night or something, Connor, while we're here? Can we bet on that? I'd bet the debate if we could. If there was a way to measure who won, I would absolutely bet the debate. That would be so fun.

Imagine betting that with your buddies, everybody's drinking beers, just betting the debate.'d be so fun imagine betting that with your buddies everybody's drinking beers betting oh great live betting you know because it would just be because you have those people they watch live or like they're like giving their reactions although you know polling and like you see the graphs of like they like or don't like what the person said they're just they're just swinging the market instantly like kick it back to my person. They need the mic. Yeah, that'd be fun. It's going to happen in our lifetime. Yeah, it'll happen in our lifetime. All right, first one for me. Man, so I'm going back to the well with a quarterback rushing over. I started the show last week with a quarterback rushing over.

Jared Hall was a really tough beat for the kid to have 11 yards and like his first six snaps. He just needs to get to 15 and a half. And then Josh Dobbs comes in, runs like a crazy person. It's like, oh, you know, Jared Hall L was a tough L to swallow. An L nonetheless, that is, you know, Connor's argument to betting unders. Because it's, you know, that's part of the baked in risk of taking it over especially a high over even though that wasn't

what happened here that's not what we have here wasn't a high over it wasn't no i know but you know i'm just i'm trying to uh talk through it for myself to understand the life that i chose slop going back to the well and i hope it doesn't happen here this week. We're going to go with Trevor Lawrence, over 15.5 rushing yards. This is readily available. Our friends here at FanDuel, of course, have the best number, minus 114. Lawrence has basically been doing this a bunch, six of the eight games a season with at least 15 yards. Back a couple weeks ago either game time decision we

didn't know if he was going to play against the saints he goes eight carries 59 yards in that one now we're coming off of a bye for the jags like he's fresh no need to be concerned about if the knee is going to be lingering if there's an issue there at all up against the niners tightly contested game we know historically we've seen this kind of bear itself out and we've done some back testing on it in games that matter close games like and i know this is not a you know we typically like this in the playoffs and we'll use this a lot during the playoffs quarterbacks especially mobile quarterbacks they tend to run a little bit more um and the 49ers have not seen a lot of quarterback rushing production against them this season but they haven't faced a lot

of quarterbacks that run very much but again a, a couple of weeks ago, Joe Burrow, another guy that we thought couldn't run or couldn't move. He scrambled for 43 yards against them. Josh Dobbs, 48 yards back in week three. So it's not like this 49ers defense is one that we need to be worrying about. If anything, the addition of Chase Young, where they've kind of laid into the issues that they had as a pass rushing standpoint, I think that helps too, right? Flush them out. These don't have to all be designed runs. It doesn't matter how we get there.

Over 15 and a half, I think this could be over by the first quarter slot. I like it. Low overs. Connor, where are we at on Trevor Lawrence or anything in this one? Yeah, plus if they have a little bit better pass rush than they have in past weeks with chase young maybe flushing from the pocket a little bit get him to scoot you know i think that's good and the the playoff qb rushing thing is super real someone quantified it i don't know one of the someone tweeted out do you see that oh tj did it for us i thought okay yeah to find it and see if we can you know have that done again but yeah

i mean it was a thing like we would like it was always my homes we'd start with my homes because he was you know before he became just a more consistent runner you just always see my homes run for 25 30 yards in the playoffs and he was always like posted it you know high teens or something like that now he's running more books have caught up a little bit but yeah i mean quarterback rushing in the playoffs is a hundred percent a thing. And yeah, we'll, we'll lean on it again. I'm kind of bending it to fit my narrative here. Cause we're a week 10.

But again, I think a tightly contested game when that matters for both teams, I think this is going to be a team, you know, one that obviously they both want to get. So it fits for me. So we'll go with it. Connor floor is yours. We had a question here real quick and I want to touch on it for people that might not be familiar. Leanne is asking about ladder.

Someone needs to explain to me how to do a ladder because I can't figure it out. Are they separate bets or the same game parlay? Speak to that real quick, Connor, and then hit us with your exotic here, some sort of same game parlay ladder situation. Yeah, so one of my friends actually recently got the betting sub as well, and kind of the same questions because I've been playing more of them, but basically it allows you to just to gain exposure to higher ends outcomes. So basically the point is if you like DK Metcalf at 63 receiving yards, you probably like him at better odds to go over 80, 90, a hundred, a hundred, 10. So it's basically like climbing the rungs of a ladder,

essentially. And where you find those is on different sports books like DraftKings. It'll say alt receiving yards. FanDuel will say, you know, alternate, like you can click on the player and then alt receiving yards. You usually have to go to the specific section. So it'll either say receiving props, and then you'll be able to find the alternates under there. I usually am pretty cautious with those. So like I'll usually do to win a unit on the regular one and then 0.1 or 0.2 units on those ladders, because, you know, if it doesn't hit, like if the base one doesn't hit, then, you know, you could be out up to two units, you know, and you don't want to do that.

So I try and keep it around one and a half max risk, one and a half to 1.6 max risk. But the thing is like we saw with T Higgins and Donald Kincaid last week, where we talked about their ladders, overs, I mean, you can win two-plus units real quick when you're only risking like 1.4, 1.5. So that's a quick overview there. Obviously, if you have any questions, feel free to slide in the DMs or hit us up on Discord because we're always pretty active there.

But I'm going to start us off, hot take of the week. I'm going to go with there will be 600 plus passing yards in the chargers lions game uh and so you know i've been fired off some hot takes specifically lately and not all of them we've been getting there but a lot of the pieces have been so like last week we talked about the bangles bills game like yeah the game didn't go over because don kakade fumbled and j Allen, like, you know, there was like multiple like points where they could have scored and easily didn't. But T. Higgins hit his ladders.

Dalton Kikade hit his ladders. We've had like, you know, multiple weeks here where we've gotten close, I think, on our game of the week, basically. So this week specifically, though, the Lions against Marjax and Geno Smith, Patrick Mahomes, only good quarterbacks they played all year. 303 passing yards per game, 8.5 yards per attempt, 12.9% explosive pass rate. And then on the other side, Chargers pass defense has played against three good quarterbacks all season, Tua Kirk Cousins and Mahomes,

466 to Tua, 367 to Kirk, 424 to Mahomes. I mean, I think this game could just get off the rails here because the metrics look good. Everyone's looking at it from a high level. They're like, oh, well, you know, the Lions defense is good. The reality is they play anyone good, and they've gotten rinsed, you know, in the passing game. So I'm excited about some overs here.

I think you guys are on the same page, right, Nguyen? Yeah, you know, we've done this too accidentally. But I think, you know, if I'm a viewer, it's somewhat confirmation bias. You maybe find it beneficial for us to be aligned in terms of, you know, in this section, essentially our like ceiling section, right? We're looking for some sort of same game parlay, some sort of ladder where we think these players or this game state can create, you know, a above the binary prop type of outcome, especially when you start to correlate them in a way that can pay you off in a big, big way.

So, yeah, I think we're hanging out here, Slop. Where are you at in this one? Everything over in this one, like everything except running backs. Yeah, just everything's over. Just take a bunch of guys and just go take the roll, right? And it's probably going to hit. Seriously, you can like spray the board, like receivers and quarterbacks. I mean, go both quarterbacks, and then throw in a receiver here and there.

The problem with the Lions, though, you've got to watch out. We don't know if Donovan Peoples-Jones is going to play, do we? And if he is, how much is he going to – because he could soak up usage, and then we don't have a line for him like I haven't seen any number for him yet so yeah they could do that they could try and trick us a little bit so you gotta watch out for that yeah so stay you know you can stay away from some of that stuff too um yeah I'm staying in the same game I I built one out um because I really like this spot and I know slop does too does too. For Jared Goff, we get Goff essentially in a dome.

We get Goff indoors against a team that plays a ton of zone. Chargers playing zone on about a little more than 75% of their snaps this season, playing cover six a ton. And if you dig into some of the numbers here, cover six stuff for Goff has been through the roof 80 completion percentage um it's just absolutely wild guess who he throws to a lot in these scenarios it's amon raw saint brem uh amon raw like absolutely massive target hog like 3.5 yards per reception uh or per route run i'm sorry against cover six he's going to eat here and also a

massive massive funnel spot chargers are terrible against the tight end position this season and like you know you can talk about dpj or josh reynolds or any of the other wide receivers that are going to get in the mix here on detroit side it's sam laporta laporta is absolutely dominating chargers have allowed 8.2 yards per target, 80% catch rate to tight ends. They've been absolutely crushed. So you can go real simple. You can do what I do, which is a little different than Connor sometimes. He likes to go for like the ceiling. I like to pull these guys back a little bit. Goff 250, that's below his actual number. His number is like 260 something. Amon Ra, six plus receptions, 80 plus yards.

He's like six and a half, like 85. So again, we're a little bit below his binary prop. Laporta, four plus 50. Those are also like a little bit below what he's asked to do. You want to kind of bring it back a little bit. In this scenario, to get these guys there, we need Herbert to throw a bunch. Give me Herbert for 30 pass attempts. Just like six attempts less than his number.

We're about four and a quarter so plus 425 uh on those legs of the parlay so um you're not a 13 to 1 15 to 100 to 1 bet 10 to win uh 25 million like we did this morning on the thunderdome slop but again let's make some profit here let's grind out some uh plus four to one winners for the people and uh build some uh different alts. I like slops. Just paint the board with overs. Look, both quarterbacks over their passing yards, or you go 300-plus on both of them. Give Keenan Allen 100-plus.

Give Sungott 100-plus. Laporta six, seven receptions. Dude, that's a party. They don't have many alts right now so brian andrews asked in the chat uh odds on the 600 plus passing yards so it's there's not necessarily a prop for that specifically but i mean basically what they were talking about it's like my legs were basically the exact same thing i think golf over herbert over uh sun god is just like a smash

spot like i think that his alt overs are awesome i'm not going to play it officially because again i think there's a big difference between playing something over at 63 and 83 you know where we played metcalf but uh you know i think that he could easily hit 125 plus uh and then same with laporta here as well so it's like i think there's like a bunch of different legs i think you can kind of mix and match some of the uh alt overs and something i've been experimenting with my head is like picking a couple of my favorite alt over legs and then like round robinning them so essentially i did it last week with with higgins and kincaid it was like 100 plus for higgins 75 plus for kincaid paid out 36 to one and i think i in total yeah and in total i think i i did like five of them or six of them and obviously i won one of them you know so it's like it more than paid off my uh my stake there so this is a game where i

think you could do something similar with like slops at 300 plus for both quarterbacks maybe even more for for one of the other who have a strong take 325 because i think it can get juicy real quick so uh that's that's probably how i play it yeah i like it i think there's you know you touched on earlier too you know certain ways i think especially when you're doing ladders to tier your bets so that way if they hit like the basic binary prop you're covering your bets right you're still going to have some profitability left you don't want to be betting them all the same unit stake where you essentially need them to start hitting the alt legs you got to be able to protect yourself and kind of you know build it that way too. So again, get in the discord, let us know what you're looking at. We can help you kind of

structure those. You can see how Connor's been structuring. He's been betting them more officially and pushing them out. You kind of see what I'm talking about there too, and referencing, making sure that you're covering yourself if things do, you know, only go over just barely the, you know, the initial line. So yeah, smart ways to do it. All right. Yeah. So we're in on variations of lines charges for sure. I think there's a lot of different ways to do it. But I think Goff absolutely cooks yours too.

So Connor, back to you for your third prop of the week. So I'm going to an under because I'm not a real man slash person. I'm going to go with Austin Eckler, longest rush under 12.5 here. I know this is one that slop is going to absolutely hate, but the math is math it. So among the 45 running backs this season with 50 or more carries, Austin Eckler ranks 44th in the rate of 10-plus yard runs at just 4.1%. And now he gets to the Detroit Lions team.

The Detroit Lions rank first in the number of 10-plus yard runs allowed this season in terms of they're the best. So they allow the fewest in the league. So, I mean, all that's adding up here. I think we're going to see more of a pass-heavy approach, especially from the Chargers. So, I don't know. I kind of like this spot here.

Eckler just hasn't really been all that efficient. Maybe it was partly due to injury. Maybe it was partly due to injury. Maybe it was partly due to just wear and tear over the course of the season. So, yeah, I think that this is a pretty good look here. And I considered playing the regular yardage. I know this is only available DK, MGM, Rivers, and a couple other spots. So it's a little bit more loosely available than I'd normally like. So in which case you can play the yards at 51.

I just worry because he's, consistently getting like 14, 15 carries. And so at 14, 15 carries, like he's got to do really, really, really bad the entire game. I'm just betting, prefer to him not to bet on one run, one long run the entire game. He owes you money too. He does. Oh my God.

The three, anyone, you know, my apologies to anyone who had the over four and a half receptions with me on Monday night. Three drops, two plays called back by penalties, like another one called back by something else. It was just like outrageous. He could have had like six, seven, eight receptions easily, and he finished with two. Go back to the well.

The man owes you for sure. He did you dirty. And, yeah, I thought that was a great bat, and I like this too. I think this is a nice – he's been really inefficient, and it's a good line. I like it. Sorry, Slop. Slop, what do you got here?

Last one. I wanted to tell you, Connor, that I had a same game of three receptions. Dwight did the noon in and kind of watered it down yeah he didn't get there seven targets he didn't get three so that was tough to watch but I'll tell you a little secret don't tell anybody Caesars paid me out for Brees Hall

25 plus receiving yards and never took it back because he had you remember the play at the end of the game towards it I think so he gets there but there's a block in the back my guy Garrett Wilson because he had – you remember the play at the end of the game towards – I think so. Very late. He gets there, but there's a block in the back. My guy Garrett Wilson, bad block, bring the play back. I mean, I think he got two yards for it just because of the 15-yard penalty.

But, yeah, for a little while it said four receptions, 28 yards, so it paid, and they never took it back. So don't tell anybody because I don't want Caesars to find out. But I got that going for me. So even when I lose, I win. Those are the best. That's what you get for betting overs. That's because they know you're a real man. Yeah, that's why you got to bet overs. They're like, you know what? This guy's a real man. I'm not taking this money back. We already gave him his own one half of it. But anyways, all right. So I really – I gave kind of my normal bet. It was going to be Jared Goff plus 105.

So I'm going to get – in the last segment, I'm going to get kind of wild this time. Why don't we say Will Levis, three plus touchdown passes plus 700 at Caesars. That could happen. Like that could really happen. If you wanted to allow it, you could play it a little safe, do two plus, plus 150 at Caesars. And now you're covered. If he doesn't get the three, you still win you 50 bucks for every hundred you bet. Like, so there's that. But look, I think that they can move the ball in Tampa. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball very well. I think Tampa is going to sell out and definitely stop the run. They have a nice run

defense. So they're going to make him throw. And the thing is, though, he can. Like, he's not bad. I mean, he's not Tom Brady yet, but he's not a bad quarterback. So if they get down there, I don't think they're going to be able to run it in. Tampa hasn't given up a rushing touchdown all season. So there's that. Two touchdowns, that's not a lot.

That's only half of as many as he threw in his first ever game. I mean, if you guys remember that one, that was the other team that hasn't given up a touchdown this season, the Falcons. And if you do remember last week, C.J. Stroud, he threw five. We only need three. I mean, I think this could happen. Should be minus money, it sounds like.

Yeah, I mean, it's not that crazy. I saw it. I was like, it was plus 750 this morning morning but now it's not a plus 700 but i mean like i i mean i thought it'd be minus 110 that's all i'm saying both starting corners are beat up i don't know the status i haven't seen that yet about jamal dean and carlton davis um that's also not great for the bucks um they they're very very thin in the back half so yeah uh i'm i'm there i mean it's a nice situation um no trail on burks but i know connor's talking about what do you want some kyle phillips overs here when we you know correlate that with take some kyle phillips alts

kyle phillips anytime touchdown he's gonna catch one of these three i'm not gonna lie i thought about including it in like the hot take section because I think that I, okay. So I will admit to this right now. I think that I love watching Will Levis. Like I think he's one of my favorite players now because it's just wild. Like every single play is just like Josh at the pass. It could be like, you know, 50 yards one way he could run it.

He might throw it into the dirt. Like, it's like, I don't know. It's just kind of fun. And he has the arm talent to do it. It's like a better version of it's like, I don't know. It's just kind of fun. And he has the arm talent to do it. It's like a better version of, like, Justin Fields in terms of passing. So, it's, like, kind of fun. Like, it's just, like, unique and exciting. And in a league where, you know, fucking Tommy DeVito or whatever is starting.

And, you know, like, all these bums, like, you know, watching something fun is great. You know? So, yeah, Teabag. Yeah, I mean, like, he's got a lot of swag, but he's just a terrible quarterback. I know. Now, Will Levis is, like, the good version of Teabag, I mean, he's got a lot of swag, but he's just a terrible quarterback. Now, Will Levis is like the good version of Teabag. He is. Yeah, yeah.

Teabag is homeless man's Will Levis. So I think, though, that – but my point was I think you can play some alts in this game because if it gets hot, you know, like, I mean, Kyle Phillips will go well over. Will Levis will have 250-plus, throw a couple touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins will probably have 100-plus. I mean, the Bucs secondary, their last four games is allowing, I think it's, like, over nine yards per attempt to, like,

C.J. Stroud and, like, Desmond Ritter's in there, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Like, yeah, they've been just getting rinsed. Yeah, so I don't know. Like, I haven't really figured out how to play it because I don't know if I really want to play, like over will love his two 20 passing yards because like he could certainly fail because like, I don't think he's really all that good on a consistent level,

but I think the upside is like massive. That's what's fun. Also to the weather in Tampa is supposed to be nice this weekend. Good passing weather. Same longest reception or longest pass play is like 36 and a half yards or something like that. That's that's a, that's a, that might be nice be nice that's a juicy we'll let us play in my opinion so yeah sam hopping calling me a coward you know what sam you know go love you i'll be honest with you i was looking for

i was looking for four plus and you know what i i forgot about our book and i just remembered since i'm on this show i will tell you what four Plus is in just a second if you guys just want to keep going. Yeah. Is this for Phillips, or who are you talking about? Our guy, Will Levis. Oh, Will Levis, 4 Plus. 4 Plus Studies. All right.

Why won't he do that? Why wouldn't he do that? Why not us? You're going to win the game if you score more points. That's a valid point. They're going to be trying to score points. So there is that. We're just betting them to do what they're going to win the game if you score more points. That's a valid point. They're going to be trying to score points. So there is that. We're just betting them to do what they're trying to do.

I mean, who are we not to believe in professional athletes to deliver on what they're trying to do? Guy eats bananas with the peels on too, so he's different. You know what I'm saying? And mayonnaise. If it's mayo in his coffee, I mean, this guy is wired different. Why would we put him in a box? No, you can't put him in a box.

I think if Will Levis throws four touchdowns and you hit that bet, you've got to come on here and drink a Mayo coffee slop. I think that's got to be a thing. I'll bet it with you. I mean, that seems like legit. I feel like that's a loss. I feel like there's a punishment. Yeah.

I feel like if I win that bet. It's celebratory. You know what I mean? And it's like doing Jaeger bombs, you know, except like mayo coffee bombs, you know. All right. So I went to our book, Our Friends Fanatics, and they're only at three plus, and it's plus 600. So I thought – I think I saw Bobby Big Wheels in the chat. He knows.

So Bobby Big Wheels, let us know if there's a book on the planet that has four plus and what that number is. I think that's in play. We need someone to step up. Bobby Big Wheels always comes through. He never fails. So we'll keep going, and all of a sudden you'll see it in the chat. This guy's good.

He's off restriction too. He gave me a lamello ball, blue or parlay the other night. So he had to take one stream off. It wasn't allowed. We weren't going to take his bet. It probably won because he gave us one anyways. But he's back now. So he's alive.

He's live. He's free. Oh, that's great. Free Bobby. Free Bobby. Free Bobby. That was in the chat. So, yeah.

It worked. He's free. All right. Last one for me. Connor's not That was in the chat. So, yeah. It worked. He's free. All right. Last one for me. Connor's not going to like this one, I don't think. This is Josh. I'm going to go with Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs, over 91.5 combined rushing and receiving yards.

This is – Bett Rivers has the best number at minus 112. Readily available draft kings minus 115 pretty much everywhere else 115 um the raiders do not want connor's boy aoc dropping back at a high rate in this game uh and last week again the game got out uh you know out of hand quickly and they you know absolutely crushed the giants but when the game game was within what you would consider neutral situation, within six points either way, the Raiders still ran the ball at a 33% or they passed at just a 33% clip.

They were running and running and running. And you got a little bit of this old school coach narrative with Antonio Pierce here who's just like checking all the boxes from a coach speak standpoint. He's in his pressure talking about like he's the heartbeat of the team. We got to lean on him. It matters that we get him into the century mark. We want to do that next time, you know,

because he had like 98 rushing yards last week, 26 carries. I would love to find carries. They have not posted carries on him in this spot because I think, you know, teams don't really run or don't pass as much against the Jets anyway. Teams want to run the football and we have a coach who wants to run the football. So if we can get a decent attempts number for Jacobs, I think that's interesting as well. I think 66 and a half rushing yards is an interesting look as well, but I want to lead into his total yards. Now he didn't do much in the passing game last week, but on the season, running backs have a league high 29 and a half percent of the receptions this season against

the Jets. Running backs are seeing eight and a half targets per game against them. Now, the first time that O'Connell played, he targeted Jacobs a ton. He had eight catches for 81 yards against the Chargers. So I think last week was just kind of like a game script situation where he wasn't involved. He's going to be under pressure a ton. I'll get to that too shortly. But he is going to get the ball out quick. That bodes well for Jacobs,

who is also going to get handed the ball a ton too. So not a great matchup per se, but running the ball against the Jets is better than passing it, especially with AOC over 91.5 total yards for Jacobs in the spot. Connor, how gross is this? I mean, it's probably going to hit, but I think it's very gross. I just, I like the AOC under so much more because I agree with everything you're

saying. I just hate Josh Jacobs. I don't know. Maybe it's just like a, maybe it's a bias that I have. I just think he sucks. So he's the heartbeat. I hate the team. I hate the guy. For the record, he's outperformed Calvin Ridley. We had the whole Calvin Ridley

Josh Jacobs discussion in our main event. Are you capitulating to Daigle? You were on my side, damn it. I was. I'm saying he won so far. He's been a better pick. Calvin's kind of been ass, not going to lie. far. I mean, he's been a better pick. Yeah, Calvin's kind of been a – it's not going to lie. It's been brutal.

It's been a rough season for the Calvin takes, but it's okay. I mean, yeah, Josh Jacobs technically has been – I heard Hayden and Josh Norris talk about it. It's actually been one of the best picks in fantasy this year just because he's been like alive. Like everyone else around him in the fantasy drafts were like just dead or trash. I don't think this is not an efficiency play.

This is a volume, coach speak, heartbeat of the team. No one else is involved in the backfield here. Quarterback who's just going to get absolutely destroyed if he drops back a ton of times. They are going to either check down a ton, or while the game is in neutral setting, they're going to try to hand him the ball as much as possible. So,

you know, I don't think he's going to break any, this is going to have to be a grind where he's, you know, getting his 20 touches. But yeah, it's just like, it's not a play that I love to make necessarily.

I just think there's going to be 25, 30 touches here for this dude. He should get to a hundred yards. So yeah. I believe in narratives though. You know, narratives aren't the worst thing. He should get to 100 yards. Yeah. I believe in narratives, though. Narratives aren't the worst thing. They're real. I mean, the narrative last week wasn't totally like, because you're like, oh, they got a new coach,

and they rolled the Giants 30-6 or whatever. I mean, they had Danny DeVito playing quarterback. But at the same time, if you watch the game, they did look a lot. They did not look like the raiders like they did look like it looked like it was a super bowl for them so there is that and he wants to run the ball josh jacobs i mean he's a hungry guy i mean he's a running back they want to get paid that whole thing too if you want to go with that narrative i don't know i i like it i'll be honest i don't think you can you can just let a c world ball gets the jets i think that's that's

a there's no chance that's going to be what they want to do. And if they do throw it, it will be underneath to Jacobs, and he's going to run the ball too for as long as they're in the game. And here's the thing, though. It's not like the Jets are going to run away from him. They have Zach Wilson playing quarterback for them. So they're not going anywhere. That's just like Danny DeVito.

So, I mean, it's the same kind of thing. I think we need to cook up an SGP at, at, at bed MGM. I was talking with one of our subs about it. So Meg Gandhi brought it up. He said, you can play alt unders on MGM. So what you can do is do an alt under on AOC, but then an alt over on Josh Jacobs and then an AOC to throw an

interception. So it's like, I mean, I don't know. I haven't cooked that up yet, but I feel like that's very live considering everything we're talking about here. That isn't bad, actually.

Just throw the run. I'm not really trying to ask you to make wonders, but if you like money, then that's good. Throw Garrett Wilson in there? Now am I talking your language or what? Yeah. He's catching six passes. No doubt. That's a whole game line, too. That's not the first half either.

I know what you guys are thinking. No, that's the whole game. They probably don't offer you any sacks, do they, Connor? No sacks? I'm looking right here. They offer some random shit. I don't know. They'll offer alternate carryovers.

That's a real thing. They'll offer alternate pass attempt overs and unders. It's like very strange. And it's the only place that does that. And it's crazy because BetMGM, like they'll limit my actual props, like 50 bucks on it, but they'll let me risk to win up to 2000 on these SGPs.

So like, I can bet like just fire the board on like 50 to win a thousand on like a bunch of different stuff. And you know, we'll see. I'm going to do that. I'm going to be playing AOC unders regardless to be honest. No, for sure. It's a,000 on a bunch of different stuff. We'll see. I'm going to be playing ALC Unders regardless, to be honest. For sure. It's a good look. Fanatics has

those too. You can do alts, attempts. You can do alts. Yeah. I know we've talked about it at length of times with the limits there too can be a problem for some people, but hey, you never know. We're seeing more positive things with them moving to Fanatics. Slop, real quick. Bodog, if you

are dancing offshore a little bit, it looks like we have Levis four tutties plus 750. Five tutties, 13 to one. You can't go swimming for that. That's a whole extra touchdown.

You should get paid a little bit more for that yeah they're trying to like swindle us we get plus 700 for three bobby big wheel said that 365 doesn't have he had plus 1600 for baker we don't want baker though and he has no idea for levis not like but bet 365 was the one ryan that That was the one I thought there was a possibility that they have that. And maybe as Sunday gets closer, maybe we'll get something. Be a little courageous. Again, four is like – that's jumping the shark a little bit. But, I mean, he's done that before.

And I don't know. I mean, we're talking DeAndre Hopkins here. He's good for two. He's got to get two more somewhere. Your boy Fuller, right, Connor? Of course, yeah, yeah. Kyle? Kyle Phillips.

Kyle Phillips. Kyle Phillips. Yeah, what a man. Yeah, him too. I'll call you Kyle Fuller at the corner. I was thinking real quick. I was like, man, Fuller. I don't know Fuller on offense.

I didn't know that. He's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that guy, that guy, that guy. Hang on. Alt under yards? I'm looking here. So, alt under fifth, under. Is this an alt under conversion from slop? Because I got a little Josh Jacobs, 100-plus rushing receiving yards,

Aiden O'Connell under under 170 passing yards plus 600 uh not bad honestly not bad uh you can do different variations that too you can make it much more reasonable like under 200 and then josh jacobs over 100 i think that's close to plus 300 that's actually like i think a very good correlated parlay that's a really good play. Yeah. Yeah. So, I don't know. I'll probably spray it. Like I mentioned with some of the other stuff,

I did it last night with Miles Sanders and Chuba. You can kind of do some alt-unders and then alt-overs if you think it works. It didn't really work too well because Miles Sanders still sucks and they still don't really use him. But I hit one of them. I hit like 15-plus receiving and Chuba under 38 or something like that. Ben here from Capwise. Ben, he's in on longest rush for Boyd Jacobs as well. So over 14 and a half.

Again, yeah, he's going to get a ton of carries. He's going to break one. We don't even need him to do that here. We can even be horribly inefficient. Just be involved in the passing game a little bit too, and we should be good. While we're on this Aiden O'Connell situation. AOC.

We're on AOC here. It needs to be said here. Now, we don't have a huge sample for AOC because he's only played a couple of games here, but he has an outrageous pressure to sack rate. 41.2%. He has been pressured on 17 dropbacks. Seven of those have resulted in a sack. Now, again, that's going to stabilize at some point if he gets enough snaps because you just can't survive, no team is going to continue to play you if you're going to get sacked at that high of a clip.

Though the commanders kind of muscled through it a little bit with Sam Howell, and that's come down a little bit. But like, gosh, 30% is really high. Like 41% is astronomical. We have three Jets on the board right now at DraftKings to get over a quarter sack. So they only need to get a half sack. All of them are plus money. Bryce Huff is the way to go. Bryce Huff over a quarter sack for plus 154 is an outstanding look. DraftKings, of course, will not let me bet anything reasonable to get that down. Hopefully you guys can.

Huff has generated pressure on 27.1% of his pass rushes this season. It is 4% higher than anyone else in the league. He led the league in pressure rate last season. He just doesn't play that much. That's part of it. He is like a situational pass rusher. So his snap rate is like 40%. You know know he's not going to be in there and a lot of these josh allen or you know josh jacobs carries that we're looking for here but when it's a clear passing down he is going to tee off on a quarterback that loves to

eat sacks now you can do it with jermaine johnson he's over a quarter sack at plus 114. quentin williams who gets double teamed at like 75 of the snaps he's over a quarter at plus 114. Quentin Williams, who gets double teamed at like 75% of the snaps. He's over a quarter at plus 160. Those are all good prices in my opinion. But I'm going to go with Bryce Huff, who is absolutely destroying people this season. And yeah, plus 154 on DraftKings. Can't make that an official play for our subscribers because basically DraftKings is the only place that especially offers the quarter. Like some books will offer over a half sack and stuff like that. Then we need the full sack to really pay it off. So I love getting the quarter sack, some plus money on DraftKings.

So Huff is a guy here too. And then we'll go on the other side. The starter that has the highest that's playing this week, because now we have Sam Howell's not taking sacks as much. Daniel Jones is out for the year. The guy who takes the most sacks in the league, about 30% pressure to sacrate Zach Wilson. So you're gonna have to pay through the nose a little bit for Max Crosby,

but Max Crosby is where to go here. Uh, the writers are dead last and pressure rate, but Max Crosby leads the league in pressures. So like he's the dude, there's no other avenues on the Raiders. Uh, it's not Tyree Wilson.

Um, who knows what stuff is going on? He's not even. There's no other avenues on the Raiders. It's not Tyree Wilson. Who knows what stuff is going on? He's not even on team anymore. I was going to make a mean joke about a former player. It's not fair. But yeah, it's Max Crosby. Maybe you want to get more same game parlay action here. Those are the ways to go for the sacks.

Tackles. I don't have a lot. So first of all, typically I talk about some tackle stuff that I like that's not posted yet. I get a lot of stuff posted. And some of that stuff I have to play officially for our subscribers yet. So this is where you need to take advantage of the betting sub. Get those tackle props this week. 444.com slash plans. Bets 50 for 50% off.

It's 62 bucks, guys. I don't even know what the math is. You got 12 weeks. I mean, we're talking about like $4 a week to bet props with us for like four months. It's insane. So yeah, check that out.

But that is the tackles and sack prop section today. It's a little bit shorter. Bryce Hoff. What do you think? So over half a sack on prop builder is plus one 85. Is that too shitty or. I mean, I think that's fine,

right? Yeah. I got to do some homework this offseason around like half sack rates and if there's any scorekeeper noise to that or what that looks like. That's why I like the quarter sack. The quarter sack is still like plus 140. Yeah, so I like that quite a bit. You know, laid the wood earlier today with Micah Parsons.

Oh, can I talk to you guys about a gross prop you know i want to hear it this is this is uh you just played josh jacobs i feel like anything goes at this point oh oh connor i am going to really really disappoint you here oh no i know i have not made this bet um but i need to just kind of like i'm thinking through it a little bit and i need to get a sense of uh of what you guys think so uh let me let me see where it's at see if it's uh still out here huff just got yeah of course i went to bet at 154 they changed it to 140 first they didn't let me do it and then they changed it to 140 they're like it's over the maximum or yeah maximum stake they kept the the hundred in still

though normally they they tell you what what they're gonna give you you know but they yeah they just they just nuked it real quick it's like dude guys come on i've had that happen a couple times this week where i go to bet something that's what i get but then they don't tell me what my allowed stake is they just tell me that i can't bet that yeah oh really no usually yeah usually for me like it'll just come back with like but in general it'll be like four dollars and 15 it's something stupid like that but like fan duel that's the way like you ever done you ever get them like you'll hit you'll put your stake in and it tells you right there.

Like, hey, this is the maximum before you have to hit the send. Like, that's awesome. If I was in charge, every book would have to do that. That's the way. I just start typing in zeros, you know, and then see like what it tells me, you know, like. Yeah. Yeah. I just type in like, you know, a thousand and it'll come back.

Like 452 or whatever. It's a weird number always, but whatever. Super random. They always put cents in there too. Very strange. Yeah, I like it. I like it. This is the exact amount you can get down tops.

All right, this is gross. I'm going to walk you through the process here and then tell you what the bet is. So, you know, Dallas, Mike McCarthy can be really conservative sometimes. We know too conservative. And when you look at the season, Dallas is second in the league in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. 45% of their drives, 45.1.

It's good, second in the league. They are 29th in red zone touchdown percentage, 43.8. It's really, really bad. That's not great. They've had 32 drives go to the red zone this season. This is sixth most in the league, same as Miami and San Francisco. Miami scored on 24 of the 32. Niners, 21 of the 32. Dallas, just 14. They settle for field goals at an insane rate. Now, again, this will probably have some positive regression as the season goes along. They'll

probably be more efficient at some point in the season they're too good offensively to struggle in the red zone but i think we do see from season to season these things end up being a little bit sticky um i just learned today that the kicker for the cowboys name is brandon aubrey um look they're gonna score some points in this game right i mean to mean, Tommy DeVito is going to throw some pick sixes. There's going to be some short fields. Like I bet the Cowboys over team total in this game. Brandon Aubrey over seven and a half kicking points is out there for you. Minus 130.

Look, this guy's, he's averaging two and a half field goals per game. That right there is six points, right? Like six, seven and a half points. Technically you're going right there is six points, right? Like six, seven and a half points. Technically you're going to have some extra points in this game too. They're going to have to settle for some field goals as well. Cause that's just how Dallas plays. Aubrey seven and a half kicking points is, um, seems like a bet. I can't bring myself to make it. I'm embarrassed that we're talking about it, but I want to give winners to people. And that feels like a bad number comparatively in a game that we expect to

have a lot of points for Dallas. So again, I like to go into, you know, I like to go into the weeds. I like to blaze trails. You know, we did it with some tackles. I don't think I'm going to start, you know, projecting kicker points, but Hey, you can bet on it. And why do we have to go where, you know, the competition is the highest. Let's go off board a little bit, Connor. So Brandon Aubrey, over seven and a half kicking points for the Cowboys. I mean, I don't hate it entirely just because I think it's unique like markets.

And I like when we handicap unique markets, you know what I mean? Like you got started going with the tackle props. You know, there might be something here. I would bet that there's some kind of formula that you're kind of like already hinting on that would probably lead us to good kicker props in terms of like red zone, you know, there might be something here. I would bet that there's some kind of formula that you're kind of like already hinting on that would probably lead us to good kicker props in terms of like red zone, you know, stop rate, things like that. And like teams that are able to get, you know, two, three first downs, but are never able to do much more defenses like that. I just don't have the, I guess, math background at this point, you know,

dive too, too deep into it. But Brandon Aubrey played soccer at Notre Dame, is my age. I don't know if I played against him specifically. Looks like he's from Dallas, so he can play a lot of teams from Texas. I'm in. That's exciting. I'm all the way in. What position did you play, Connor?

I was a center back. Okay. I figured you'd be more of a forward. Like Glory Hound up front. I did play some forward, but I just couldn't score. That was this year. That's just kind of a problem when you're playing up top. I could get to the goal, and then I would just shank it.

My composure wasn't too great. Not great. It happens. Yeah. When I play, I'm a forward. Newton poaches. He's a striker only. Nice. You don't want me doing anything else, but I'm an elite. I willan poaches. He's a striker only. Nice.

You don't want me doing anything else, but I'm an elite. I will find the back of the net. So that's my thing. We played some – COVID was rough. You couldn't do anything. We played some pickup soccer outside. Connor's good. Not my background.

I played every other sport. My parents loved me. They didn't let me play soccer growing up so yeah i grew up in florida we played real sports so yeah oh god i have two of you to deal with now i just wanted some exercise during covid so i'm like yeah i'll play what are we doing oh it's my favorite favorite favorite sport to talk about you can always throw that in there i respect it i don't like watching soccer really that much either. I like playing, but it's more of like – especially MLS soccer.

When you have kids, like watching their games is awesome. Like I love watching my kids' soccer games. I mean, like you can't really bet on them or anything. I mean, you can't. But I would say it's still fun. I'll find a way. Yeah, I can't watch any other soccer unless I have money on it. I can't.

I can't do it. I would not do that to my boys. I cannot let my boys play soccer. You have boys. Yeah, you can't. I have three girls, so that's like the most contactee sport you get. You know what I mean? You get playing that.

They play lacrosse and basketball. No field hockey, maybe? Maybe. When they get older? One might do it. She's kind of crazy. The other two are just – It's like an East Coast field hockey, maybe? Maybe. When they get older. One might do it. Like, she's kind of crazy. The other two are just – they don't want to. It's like an East Coast thing too, right?

Yeah. Cross is Northeast. You know, in field hockey, I feel like – in Florida, like, we didn't – it was basketball, baseball, football. I don't know what the girls did. They played soccer, I think. Shout out to the girls in the chat. We appreciate you.

We're not, you know, I don't know. We got Mary's here. We love Mary. Mary's awesome. Leanne's here. Yeah, there you go. Lacrosse, Canada's national sport. Oh, it's Canadian?

It feels Canadian. I mean, that's not an insult. I'm saying it just feels Canadian. Those are my people. I'm a half Canuck. So yeah, that's it. Again, like I said, there's some tackle stuff I like, but that's going to be official plays for subscribers because most of it's out and posted. In this spot, I usually talk about some stuff that's not out there yet. We like theoretically that's yet to be posted and try to guess the line.

But for the most part, things are posted. So I will have some subscribers. No Friday afternoons, Friday evenings, post prop drop show is a very heavy tackle time for our subscriber discord. So yeah, let's let's knock out a couple of things here in the chat before we dip out of here.

Jordan wants to know, do you like Dalton Kininkade over 53 and a half um yeah it's been automatic it's been a great play we were climbing though we've been playing it at what 37 and a half connor 53 and a half we're we're paying the piper a little bit yeah i i could not believe that it opened at 34 and a half last week i mean that was just like criminal like yeah then like what the first half basically was like two yards away i think um yeah i i don't know the thing is they're kind of adjusting for it 53 for a median prop i don't know i mean it's starting to kind of get there in my mind it's still lean over but i think it's about right at this point yeah maybe take an alt that would be it you can't play that no shout out

ben ryan's sax attack has been feeding his four-month-old along with diapers diapers are expensive yeah um you know you can get diapers for more than it's going to cost you to get a betting subscription and combat tackles with us for the rest of the year so look i don't know how else to tell you uh come hang out with us four for four.com slash plans it's good stuff uh What else do we have here? Bobby Big Wheels, Dalton Schultz, back-to-back weeks with 100 receiving yards. And we have Nico Collins. I don't know if that's official, but Nico Collins probably out in this spot.

What do you think there, Slop? That is such a Bobby Big Wheels play. He's a psychopath. No, but that, I mean, honestly honestly that has legs it really does i mean what are the texans they're dogs right they're like almost seven aren't they i'm waiting so and if colin sits i don't know that's not bad Bobby That's not bad at all I don't know what the number is on that I would need to know the price Before we can actually say you know what I mean But like I don't know

What would you say about it I saw earlier we had Schultz and we had Tank Dell but Noah Brown's the one that interests me More so than anything That's who I want to Because like the Bengals Against I think it was outside receivers Have been their most susceptible point Brown's the one that interests me more so than anything. That's who I want to know. Because like the Bengals against, I think it was outside receivers have been their most susceptible point.

And tight ends though, I guess. I think Cincinnati has not really done a good job against tight ends. So that would be fine. I bet an under on Dalton Schultz. Someone needs to put me in jail for that after he went for 100 yards. That was literally just dead on arrival. I mean, so bad. Plus 8 went for 100 yards. I mean, that was like literally just dead on arrival. I mean, it was so bad.

Plus 850 for 100 for Dalton. That's a good match. It's a lot of damage. I think we'll get similar odds on Noah to do it, and I like him better, to be honest, but it's all right. Let me check. We got nothing. Yeah.

Tank Dell, 100 is plus 500. Yeah, nothing yet uh leanne wants to know is a dallas same game parlay smash too obvious um i don't know how it would go about it to be honest um which makes it harder like yeah you want to say like game script there's going to be some second half rushing like if anything you can sell me on like Dak unders but that's not like that's not fun right it's not I mean we don't want to do Dak unders I had the same game parlay around Dallas not throwing the ball oh that is kind of a fun one just because he'll go nuts in the first half and then just all of a sudden, that's it. Just nothing happened. So, I don't know. I'm not watching

that game anyway, so I guess you could do an under just because it's a 17 point. Dude, they shouldn't even play that game. Someone could get hurt. Dallas to win. Everybody through. It's player safety. Yeah, it's like the youth team playing against

a professional team. Someone's going to get hurt. You could do one of these reverse ones too where maybe you go Dak over touchdowns but under yards and attempts. That could be fun. I didn't even think about that. You got the wheels turning

now. This is an interesting one. Look what you did. look what you did yeah that's good let me i'll try and build something out here and see what we can get right because that fits they could easily you know get to the spot where this game gets out of hand off of dac you know being super efficient in the first half, throwing a bunch of touchdowns. I wish you could get like a, you know, throw a Dallas pick six or defensive score in there as well. That'd be lovely. But again, books aren't that courageous yet. They don't have any alts passing touchdowns yet.

FanDuel's kind of slacking this week. You love our show sponsor. Yeah, no, they were very slow. No offense, FanDuel. I know you respond to the show, but very slow. Not fast. Yeah, so like under 250, over one and a half passing touchdowns is only plus 274.

But if you juice that up to probably two and a half, I bet you'd get to like five, six to one. Yeah. Okay. I like it. This is kind of in line with your Kyle Phillips stuff, Connor. Trent Irwin this week with the injury situation in Cincinnati. Any thoughts Brian wants to know?

I think Dagle had a tweet about it that was like Trent Irwin saw the most targets behind Jamar Chase with someone out – it was like the second most targets on the team outside of the top target with I think it was either Chase or Higgins. I don't remember exactly, but I don't know. Maybe I'm misremembering, maybe i don't know yeah let me see i know we had a i know we had a week where he was like he went off and you're like what the heck happened uh week five he had uh 82 percent route participation he had uh 23 of the targets for a uh almost 10 yard eight up 32 of the air

yards he uh he ate uh in that week 22 targets here week five higher than tyler boyd yeah ten targets yeah i had ten targets that week in week five so yeah um probably really good dfs play i don't know if we're gonna be smashing trenton erwin uh props per se but uh yeah i mean you're probably different ways to go about it uh mary's in in my wheelhouse here she wants to bet kickers she bet pinyero two plus field goals plus money last night uh loves kicker props mary we gotta figure this out you know maybe we gotta bake something up here connor's soccer boy is gonna do it for us

this week in dallas and maybe we're onto something and, you know, we find some, some more off market niche props to start betting. Hey, they don't pay out any different. I promise you. That's a valid point. So money's still green.

You just might be able to bet a little bit less on it. You got to get more creative with how you're getting it down. So that's all right. They win more. You know, usually. Last one. Brian wants to know Walker versus versus Hall, head-to-head rushing.

What do you think there, Connor? I know you're on Brees Hall this week. Yeah, I would like Hall on that side. I don't know. We didn't see the same kind of – I know you took a Charbonnet prop last week, and we saw basically none of what we talked about. I mean, Pete Carroll – Yeah, and they also ran like 40 plays too. Yeah. like p carol just spat in our face honestly that's kind of what i

felt like after he talked up jack charbonnet and then he played he had like four carries or like two carries whatever it was brutal also breese hall most rushing yards 25 to 1 on the week i think that's uh pretty nice i played some of that dalton uh got down some money for me at the new draft kings book in Arizona. I think it was like 28-1, but I think he went up 20-1. I think Brees is pretty solid this week. He could also have like 15 carries, like 40 yards, honestly, but I think he also could have like 18 for one and 180.

So, you know, I think he's like always a wide range of outcomes with him, and that's what we're leaning into here. Brees longest of interest to me as well, like those props. I thought you were a Walker longest guy I am a Walker longest guy too, I don't hate that I can play them both parlay Why do you make them go against each other? Have them work together

Sloppy or smart guy We throw that in with our Will Levis longest completion prop and just you know uncorrelated but similar props They're correlated in the fact that they are the same Market kind of they're in yeah they're the same tab on the app and to me sometimes that's correlation it's very easy to bet too very easy to bet you don't have to go anywhere uh slot tell people about Oz gym ah greatest pricing tools in the history of pricing tools

there's like a million sports books they're all trying to set their own lines independently when that happens things get crossed up lines get stale audrey and we just kind of pick them off like what stale lines all day long it's very fun uh go there right now audrey.com get the positive ev package promo code slop free two weeks free my favorite price fantastic freeze for me uh that will wrap us up for this week again four four four dot com slash plans promo code bets 50 get the sub get in there super cheap 62 bucks for four months of betting with us uh you know just dip your toes in come play with us nba or bend everything you can basically bet on so i appreciate you guys hanging out with us.

Subscribe, thumbs up, all that before you leave. We appreciate it as well. For Connor and Slop and mine, we'll see you all next week. Thanks, everybody. you