Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 10 PROPS

Episode Date: November 12, 2022

NFL Week 10 Props to bet with Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 10 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro6:34 Connor Prop Bet #1 11:30 Pat Prop Bet #1  16:19 Ryan Prop Bet #1 21:12 Connor Prop Bet #2 22:34 Pat Prop Bet #2 24:29 Ryan Prop Bet #229:24 Connor Prop Bet #3 33:21 Ryan Prop Bet #340:08 Pat Prop Bet #4 44:22 Ryan Prop Bet #4 46:31 Tackle Props54:11 Q+A Props1:04:22 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, Prop Drop Show. Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that's Player Props. We're live here 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving you our favorite props, taking your questions as well. So if you're hanging out with us on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Lots of other great content here on the 444 YouTube page. Smash the like button and jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite prop is for week 10. Any thoughts that you have on a play, feel free to ask. We'll try to get to that at the end of the show. And share the show. It goes a long way. Betting is communal. It's not fantasy. You're not competing against your friends. Let them know. Get out there and share it with your friends. Joining us, as always, Connor Allen. How are we doing? Good. In St. Louis for a wedding, for John Mifsud's wedding. Shout out to Johnny doing some World Cup betting content for us as well over at 444. So I think he's going to be busy this weekend going on honeymoon, but we'll be dropping

a bunch of futures and soccer goodness in the chat. Yeah, you had great video, but your audio is a little cranky here. So I see that kind of. Yeah. So I was going to ask Johnny, right? That's our that's our world cup soccer betting guy and he's getting married right before the world cup this is not well planned out by yeah poor planning not great so all right well congratulations to johnny uh

hopefully he can uh you know apologize to his uh lovely bride that he'll be grinding soccer bets a couple days after uh exchangingows. Should be a good time. Also joining us as always in this space, the man behind the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience. Of course, the man himself, Pat Mayo. Pat, any wedding advice for Johnny here who's going to be in the streets a couple days after the ceremony? The week after I got married was a PGA Championship content week, which was not super well planned out for me.

My wife and I were talking. I was like, look, here's what we're going to do because we got married in where we're from, but we didn't live there. I was like, all right, here's what we do. We get married and we stay the weekend. Then we fly back on the Sunday evening or the Monday. I do all my regular work that I'm going to do for that week and then we fly back on the sunday evening or the monday i do all my regular work

that i'm going to do for that week and then we go on the honeymoon so it's like like an extra few day buffer so you can get away with something like that but i guess the world cup goes for what like eight months or something something crazy like that it's insanely long i mean for them to do it in the middle of football season seems like an asinine idea as well but hey well here's the thing i don't really think they care about america that's a good point they don't very fair and it's in uh qatar so like you can't have that in the summer i mean it's already going to be like 100 degrees there uh they're gonna have to stop every like 20 minutes for a water break as is so is that true like is that like a planned

thing or is that just like you saying that uh yeah that's just me saying that but i do know that that is a thing when it does get too hot uh in most soccer games like if it's over a certain temperature it was it's uh it's brutal imagine knowing that much about soccer good god tell me now yeah former former soccer player here checking in uh unfortunately so yeah it's uh i don't watch any soccer now outside of the World Cup or maybe the Champions League final if I bet on it. That's about it. It's the worst sport.

Let's just be honest. It's not the worst sport. Pretty terrible. It's a tough watch. It's a tough watch. I find rugby to be a very tough watch. At least dudes are, like, you know, getting at it a little bit. Soccer, like the flopping in soccer is just absolutely brutal.

And I know the flopping in the NBA is brutal. And LeBron in the NBA. I know. I know. But look, I'll give kudos to Connor. I've got out there and run around with him and his boys. And I have a new appreciation for the skills that are involved for being a terrific soccer player.

And Connor played at the college level. He's very good. So I'm not saying that these aren't skilled players or great athletes. You have to be in incredible shape. I just find the sport, it's sufferable to watch. I mean, you basically, you could be watching a 0-0 tie for an hour and a half, two hours. Well, as Kenny Powers once told Cody, he wants to be good at real sports,

not the best at exercising. They're bringing that back, which is going to be very interesting to see because that show started great and then was kind of a tough watch at the end. But I'll be interested to see how that goes on the way back. All right. A reminder before we jump into the props here,

two episodes of Move Align each week, both available streaming here on YouTube, also available in podcast form wherever you consume podcasts. In addition to this prop drop show, the game previews and bets with Connor, John Daigle and myself live 645 p.m. Eastern on Thursday nights, leading you into the Thursday night game. Again, part of what you'll get if you subscribe. And we're halfway through the season. And our price for our betting subscription at 4 for 4 reflects that. Now 50% off of the original rate. And the betting subscription gets you access to literally everything on the site. Every article.

Every tool. DFS. DFS optimizers. The subscriber-only Discord, which I think is the crown jewel, gets you access to us. We push all of these bets and more through there first. Just a great way to to talk about any sport again you can talk about World Cup with Johnny we have MMA college hoops MBA lots of other great stuff going on over there as well four four dot com slash plans and if you

use promo code next level one word all caps you get an additional 25 off that'll take you through the end of February so you get all the football season, get you through lots of good college hoop stuff before March madness starts to kick up NBA, MMA, all that stuff. So that should cover the, all the world cup stuff. I don't think we're going into March with the world cup stuff. So it's like a little over a month. It's like ends in like mid December. All right.

So yeah, you'll get all that too. So, uh, four, four.com slash plans next level, additional 25 percent off. So they've been a little slow to release here for week 10, but we're going to give you our best live lines available for you to bet on right now. No one giving stale lines. Our goal is to do our best to make sure that you can get the same line, same price or as close as possible. Connor, kick us off week 10. Yeah, I'm going to start off with Christian McCaffrey over 74.5 rushing yards. I'd play this honestly up to 80. He's coming off an 18-carry, 94-yard game against a tough Rams run defense before the bye.

Now draws the Chargers, 29th run to DBOA, allowing the most yards per carry in the league at 5.7. Jeff Wilson has since been traded. Niners right now, seven-point favorites against this Chargers team that are going to be without Keenan Allen, probably again without Mike Williams. Probably see plenty of positive game script here. We have 85 rushing yards projected, but I think this could be like an explosion spot here for McCaffrey, seeing close to 20 carries. And with that kind of workload and like how good he's looked in this offense, I mean, I think we could see 100 plus rushing yards here easily. So I like this spot a lot for CMC and I will be taking some alternate overs as well. We hit it together, Pat. So I like it. a lot for CMC. I will be taking some alternate overs as well. We hit it together, Pat.

So I like it. What are your thoughts? I am at 18 for 100, so I can completely get on board with that. We've seen how awful this rush defense is for the 49ers. I would throw a few words of caution towards this, though. So the return of use check might be helpful to christian mccaffrey if they start running out of i or something like that or it could just siphon away a few carries that's where i'm worried about this we didn't see it happen with jeff wilson yes he's gone do we know

whether or not elijah mitchell is going to be active because he was designated to return i haven't seen that yet um but that'd be interesting i mean they have a 21 way 21 day window so yeah i don't know if uh if he's active for this week but yeah i think that would be a that'd be interesting. I mean, they have a 21-day window. So yeah, I don't know if he's active for this week. But yeah, I think that would be a reason to be a little bit more cautious on maybe some of the ladders. But I don't know, man. This is such a great spot. Like they're bad to start with. And they just, I have another starter they just released.

And another starter just went on IR. So like the guys that they deem to be starting worthy are not even going to be active here too. The other point about this would be debo is going to be back and debo is going to siphon away four or five carries now i'm not concerned about use check or debo hurting the overall production of christian mccaffrey just fewer opportunities for him to get to the number in theory if mitchell was back though i could see them not playing like 50 50 but instead of getting like a guaranteed 17 to 22 carries all of a sudden i think you need to readjust that number to like 12 to 18 like the range at the low end is a little bit bigger if all of a sudden they

bring mitchell back who's going to be on the bottom end of the share but might end up with like four or five six seven carries depending on what they want to do. I think that's fair with the Debo point though. Like he was not really even used as a running back, uh, like until later in the year last year when like their running back started getting injured, like when he was getting like five to seven carry range before that, he was more than like that two to three carry range. So like, sure. But like when he was getting all of those carries, the six, seven, eight, a game mitchell was getting 18 19 20 as well so i take that point but now we just have more bodies into the mix to kind of take things away i'm for this number i like it a lot i have as a heavy over as well i'm just listen i'm just trying to find

i'm trying to shit on your pick here no i like the pushback i think it's it goes it goes both ways i like you know like picking holes in your counterarguments as well. I'm a fan. So the other thing you're not, as I heard at the beginning of fantasy football season, very injury-prone Christian McCaffrey. Can't draft him, number one. Be a bad move. So when he inevitably gets hurt in this game, he's not going to hit the over.

True. That's why you have to take Jonathan Taylor because he doesn't get hurt. Yeah, and it doesn't get hurt. So, you know, it's just how it works. Yeah, I mean, I just think that you don't – not that they leverage the future, but they gave up a lot, the equivalent of more than a first-round pick to bring in McCaffrey. He's your guy.

So, like, Elijah Mitchell even coming back, even if it was to be here, like, that guy is spelling Christian McCaffrey. It's not even a – I don't think that ends up being something where he works in. We haven't seen it yet, so, again, we're speculating, but I think McCaffrey is pretty comfortable. I do think optimally almost, though, like the Niners probably kind of keep him in that 15-carry range, just get him like a ton of like swing passes, like touches in space rather than like, you know,

runs into the teeth of the defense. But, you know, I mean, that's just my own opinion. Like I don't really know how they're going to do it themselves. So 36 and a half receiving yards, I think is the number that came out too. We haven't seen a combo number, but again, I do think last week, nine targets, which is great, but I do think maybe Debo, no Debo probably impacted that. So, you know, but again, I think it's just a,

he's getting to a hundred total yards in this game. It's an absolute great spot. Also the game flow affected his target share as well, because they were down. I know they won by so much, but they were down in that game and normally passes to running backs. And maybe that's different now that they have one of the elite pass catching running backs. It's just never really been a part of that offense with Shanahan.

No, it's true. I do. Like I said, I think Debo mattered there too. So good, good spots. We poked a little holes I do, like I said, I think Debo mattered there too. So good spots. We poked a little holes in our play, but smash that. Pat, how about number one for you? Number one for me. All right, pick the number one, two, or three for me.

Or five. Five. No, there's no five. Just one, two, or three. One. One, okay. Under 32 and a half Dak Prescott passing attempts you can always play with a bit of fire when you go into the passing attempts market if a game ends up becoming close but

the expected temperature in this game is supposed to be very low uh in terms I mean you guys you're I mean it was 76 here yesterday it's gonna be 29 tonight it's gonna be cold here all right well those seem like fabricated numbers. I have no idea what that means. Is it near zero? Is it near freezing? You're in Celsius. I forgot about this. I'm in real temperature, not like magic temperature.

I can't convert this off the top of my head. I'm not going to lie. 29 is minus two, by the way, if people need to know. I know 32 would be zero. It's going to be down there. It was probably in the teens yesterday and on sunday it's expected to be hovering a bit above a bit below freezing so not optimal passing conditions in general and then you have do you even need to throw the ball against this packers defense at this point

they have no one left like their only good players are now in the secondary and Zeke looks like he's going to be coming back probably won't see a full workload so for like daily fantasy and drafting they still like Tony Pollard quite a bit here I think he's going to get a ton of run in this game as the until Zeke is back at 100 he might not get all the goal line carries but when it comes to like the split it's going to be like 66 33 in favor of pollard this week i just 32 is so many i mean to get to 33 passing attempts to beat me unless i have wildly miscalculated how good dallas is and i think that they are very good and wildly miscalculated how bad green bay is and they're pretty bad that i just don't see the need to pass 32 and a half times.

Yeah, this is one of two passing unders that I like on the attempt side. So, yeah, I can get behind this. Connor, do you have any thoughts on Dak? No, I am curious on Pat's thoughts. I know this is a prop show, but, I mean, Dallas minus four. I think we're all in agreement that Dallas is the better side. I mean, any thoughts on that? Because I feel like just everything you've said, like Dallas's defense is significantly better.

Packers, no Romeo Dobbs, you know, Packers run defense is bad. Like Cowboys should be able to run the ball. Like what are we missing? Because clearly sharp money has moved this like from six to four. I bet it at five.

So I don't care where the sharp money is coming out of. Maybe, maybe it's a bad spot. The Packers have lost all these road games. These narratives can pile up. I mean, and home dogs of four or more points this year have been doing excellent against the spread. It just seems like such a horrible matchup, both in reality and on paper.

And even a little thing that people tend to overlook, like over the last six weeks, the best team in football on special teams, Dallas. The worst, Green Bay. Just little edges like that are where you can kind of squeeze a bit of extra value. I went through a lull betting-wise midway through the season, and a lot of it was really chalked up to I would look at this number and say, five for Green Bay.

It's like, I really think Dallas is going to win, but they're trying to trick me with this number.'ll take green bay and then the side i should have taken absolutely smashes and i'm like what am i doing here so the past three weeks i've gone back to i think like when i cap this game i do it on sunday nights on my show the pat mayo experience tune in live comes on the hour before sunday night football end of the games to the beginning of the game and boom we're out it's fun and we guess the lines I thought there's gonna be Dallas minus nine she's yeah but yeah I mean that's the thing is like I feel like it's a situational better spot to your point like you have Green Bay Aaron Rodgers at home getting more than a field goal I think that probably

just kind of goes off for some people like that's just a spot that I have to bet blindly but if you actually handicap any of the matchups and like you got into the weeds even more on the special team side. And I have it last year with green Bay too. A lot of their special team stuff isn't even tied to the kicking game. It's literally tied to like field position stuff. Yeah. Like just kick returns, punt returns, like coverage. Like there's just nothing that tells you that green Bay,

like Eric Stokes now going to be out for the season. Their best like linebacker Devondra Campbell out. Rashawn Gary out. Like pull through the tackles. Lazard might not play along with. Yeah. Lazard might not play along with Dubs. And then Aaron Jones is going to play like 60%.

And Aaron Rodgers legit looks like he doesn't care. Right. Yeah. So it feels square and it feels like there's a problem. And again, it obviously the market's moving against it, but yeah, I agree too. It's a good point. So yeah, I like the Dak play quite a bit. First one for me, I'm also going to stay here in the Midwest in the cold. I'm going to continue to bang the drum on Justin Fields over 57 and a half rushing yards. This is available at minus one 10 on MGM. It opened to 58 and a half rushing yards this is available at minus 110 on mgm uh it opened to 58 and a half hung around for a little bit juiced up and then is basically 57 and a half everywhere and this

has more to do with the handicap of the matchup again than chasing the historic performance last week we've been targeting fairly successfully running quarterbacks against man heavy and blitz heavy teams and that's kind of the handicap here as well like the bears have been kind of taken a step here with the added focus on design runs for fields it's been great he's got 21 design runs in the past three weeks uh last handful of games he's averaging 12.2 attempts 102 yards on the ground the last four outings but the lions are playing man at a top 10 rate they blitz the league's fourth highest rate it's just that simple 57 and a half is just too low for a guy who has been doing this with ease and having success i can't see him getting away from it here so

57 and a half i mean aaron rogers who doesn't care ran for like 42 yards last week against the lions there's no way that fields doesn't tuck it a couple times and run successfully here over 57 and a half. Looks like it's moved again, 58 and a half, still 58 and a half on MGM. Love it. I like that you brought this up because that just you. I like the Fields one, obviously. I think you just kind of bet it until it doesn't win anymore. And then you can move on your way and recalibrate what the new number is going to be.

But what you just said about a running quarterback against a team that's blitz heavy and plays man just instantly led me to Jacoby Brissett over 15 and a half rushing yards. Yeah, I looked at that too. And I tried to, like I hadn't bet it, but I've been doing that with Gino. Gino, every time he's played Arizona, that's one for us. We did it against Daniel Jones,

against the Bears who play a lot of man. It's kind of worked a lot of times, even for non-rushing quarterbacks. So yeah, I like who play a lot of man. Like it's kind of worked a lot of times, even for non-Russian quarterbacks. So yeah, I like that look a lot. Connor, I know you've talked about it. You talked about it with Sharp Clark as well, about the concern. And maybe they don't have to get into these third and long scramble situations because they'll probably have so much success running on early downs

with the running backs. Because obviously Detroit's defense is very generous, no matter what you want to do. Yeah. but any thoughts on the field stuff for the folks no i mean i see i go back and forth i think that the over is where i look for sure but uh it's just like i couldn't i couldn't take it because i feel like they could just like they can crush on early down so like if you look at like the last game like they were getting these such like ridiculous third down like third down to seven they're done eight situations where fields is like rolling around you know scrambling like i mean but he should still do that regardless they're still going to get in those situations

enough for you to the over probably it's just that if they don't uh it'll just be close like if that's all i gotta say is it'll be it'll be close yeah he's been doing this in the half in the first half last couple weeks can i Can I throw out that the Lions defense has actually been a little bit better? I mean, like, the turnovers in the red zone last week for the Packers, I think, are going to be hiding a lot of that, right? Sure, but, like, they had Dallas on lockdown

until they started turning the ball over. They played Miami, and Miami is going to, like, beat up on any Sib defense. Like, if you are reasonably bad anywhere, especially in, like, the back end of the secondary, Miami is going to beat up on any Civ defense. If you are reasonably bad anywhere, especially in the back end of the secondary, Miami is going to toast you. I don't think that the Bears defense and the Lions defense is super dissimilar, especially without Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn now. That I agree with, for sure.

Yeah, that I agree with. I'm not there on the Bears. The Lions are, I could say, better but not still not like not a bottom three unit i think they're still bears lions and texans maybe terrible defenses see rush defense where maybe maybe i'm completely uh completely off on all this where's detroit end up coming in detroit's like middle of the pack the last month against the run so they're gonna try to establish i mean i don't want to sit here and pick. Actually, no, they're sixth against the run over the past month.

So passing is where you're going to get them. So this might actually work to your favor a little bit where maybe they don't gain a ton on early downs if all they do is Montgomery and Herbert the entire time. Maybe they find themselves in a few third and sevens, which would kind of precipitate Justin fields breaking off 45 yard runs yeah yeah we can do it in one carry we'll be fine last week that was a great run yeah again the handicap is is pretty clearly the man tendencies right just they turn their backs because they're chasing their guy you're gonna have a spy the spy is not gonna be as fast or as athletic as Justin Fields. And then blitzing obviously forces, especially a quarterback who's not simply comfortable sitting in the pocket and making passes down the field. He's going to have more prone to break pocket, run and break plays.

So Fields, 57 and a half, I think still a great look. Connor, back to you. Number two. Yeah, number two for me. I'm going to go with Dalton schultz over 31 receiving yards i know pat brought up some potential volume concerns here and what's crazy is that in his three games with dak prescott despite dak throwing for fewer than 30 pass steps in every game he has 62 49 and 74 receiving yards on nine five and seven targets he seems to be like the clear number two

pass catcher behind cd lamb essentially and like I mean, right now we have like 46 projected. I just think this number is like, you know, five to 10 yards too low here, especially against a beat up Green Bay team, too, especially. So I think this is a good look here for him to, you know, finish with like 40 plus yards, maybe even a lot more. I like this a lot. And this works really well on a same game parlay because you're correlating two negative things together that it'll actually give you a bit more of a boost than the odds will actually allow you. Like if you had gone Dak under, CD Lamb under, well, those are correlated in a way. But if you go Dak under, Schultz over, you're going to get a boost within their algorithm. So that's the one that I like on Dallas because it just feels too low. Yeah, I agree. Play with Conor as well. I think it's feels too low. Yeah, I agree. Play with Connor as well. I think it's it's a nice look.

And yeah, I think it bodes really well. And even if his routes are down a little bit, he'll still his target per route run has been pretty good with Dakton lineup. So it's not like they asked Dalton Schultz to block a ton. Correct. Yeah. All right, Pat, number two for you. All right. I almost like the fields over. I'm just going to keep going to the well here. My projections have this as an absolute smash, and it would take a bizarre circumstance for this not to come true because the number is just, they refuse to put it any higher. Tyree Kill over 93 and a half receiving yards. How can anyone really argue that number with the way he's playing right now? Connor, did you give it any look any consideration i mean that that brown's defense is a problem too yeah the waddle number is dropping too like it's like open to like 70 it's down to like i saw some 66 is 67 and a half i mean i think you can just hit the over on all these guys like every week they're they're awesome and the browns defense i know

they're getting healthier like denzel ward's gonna play but it just hasn't even mattered like when they've even when they're healthy like they've still been bad so um i mean and miami with tua i like broke it down when games he started their first in like epa past epa success rate explosive pass rate like literally every metric they're like top five yeah he's he's unbelievable right now so no problem chasing elite receivers that's on a pretty good run every time he's put in uh you know whether it's a derrick henry or uh you know justin jefferson he's had a pretty good hit rate i think the season with uh elite overs like yeah i mean i should really just do like because i know some weeks i'm like oh yeah joan johnson over 12 and

a half receiving years sometimes you just look at it's like derrick henry this week i don't have derrick henry as one of my picks it's like the worst rushing defense over the last month against derrick henry just take the over you know i say kwan's in that mix this week too i think etn's in that mix too like maybe game flow worries you but like dude is going to get his 20 carries and against that awful run defense where he breaks off chunk plays it's like yeah that makes way too much sense we'll come back to this to give a uh maybe a same game parlay like for the tyreek thing in a minute but my second one is going to be damian pierce again we're he's kind of working his way into this field um over 77 and a half rushing yards this is minus 110 on mgm i played 76 and a half rushing yards when this drops but

he's basically their only constant right now he's their only answer to moving the football and the usage has been insane the texans haven't quite entered like titans bears falcons tier of rush heavy teams but their pass rate over expectation is like negative nine percent over the last few weeks on first downs negative 15 so they are just turning around and handing the ball to pierce hiding davis mills which makes a lot of sense great matchup here giants have been among the worst run defenses in the league and success rate yards per game epa explosive rush rate basically you know anything that matters here actually the worst team in the league on first downs as well so again knowing that this is going to be a lot of pierce on first downs bodes fairly well here i don't imagine that the game script

gets out of hand either. They'll continue to run him regardless. So I think as they did even against the Eagles last week. So we haven't projected for 91 yards. I feel pretty comfortable with him being anywhere below 80. So Pat, what do you got on Pierce? It's just, it's a pure volume play. You just have to hope that this game,

even if the game gets a little bit out of hand, the Texans have shown the proclivity just to keep running because that's all they got. Connor, you on this or any thoughts? Yeah. I mean, I didn't take it originally, but the more I looked at it and the more you broke it down, I think that I like it.

It was there any, like, I know he was injured a little bit like in, in, uh, you know, early in the week. Is there any, anything come to light with that? No, they said he's fine. Practiceful. Yep. Yeah yeah also the giants run defense according to the metrics has not played well which i mean it's so strange because i feel like the the giants continue to like win and play well just across the board but their metrics are really not that good so i don't know it's a very strange thing where my eyes are deceiving me i think yeah we talked about it

last night on the show a little bit like i got into some of their down and distance stuff defensively they are by far the worst run defense and pass defense on first down second down they're still below average third down they are top five against the run top like number two against the pass they are opportunistic they are good when they need to be i think that's probably times when they blitz a lot because they're a very blitz-happy team. So, hey, they're good when it matters. And I don't know. I think you just see a lot of peers.

Like Pat said, you're probably looking at 20 carries here, and the volume alone helps them get here. So I had something to kind of chime in, too, on that same game parlay that I was talking about and just looking at the different distinctions on the types of bets that you're putting together. Now, I'm not talking about like a 13-leg same-game parlay, but the one I just talked about, Dak under, and these are outlines too, like these are more heavily juiced than you would normally do. But when you put in Dak under 249.5 passing yards, and I think his total is like 232. So I've juiced the over up and I'm taking the under,

and I'm paying like minus 140 or something for it. And then I bring down the over for Schultz from, I think it was 33 and a half to 29 and a half. And that's like minus 130 and bet the over on that, that pays plus 250 because the algorithm doesn't quite know what's going on. As example to this if you play that same dac under of 249 and a half and play it with cd lamb is just regular over under and put it together of the under 69 and a half it pays plus 130 wow yeah because i mean plus that's that's almost a normal parlay yeah you're getting like regular parlay outs because you have anti-correlated your same game parlays. It's next level stuff there.

We need anti-correlation SGPs as plays. It does make a lot of sense. I mean, I think that's a good look there for sure. Yeah. I think you can do that. I think that's probably the best way to do it too is volume plays on the quarterback side. Efficiency number, whether it's completions or attempts, is probably the best way to do it too, is volume plays on the quarterback side, or just efficiency number, whether it's completions or attempts,

is probably your best look. And then finding maybe some low threshold overs, whether it's receiving yard, tight ends, things like that, I think probably are the best way to do it. The problem is, is that most of, like, for example, on DraftKings Sportsbook, if you go to completions for Dak Prescott, or you go to passingions for dak prescott or you go to

passing attempts for drac prescott there's no over under that you can bet on it's all like over progressives so i guess like you could take over 35 attempts or over 30 attempts it's not like over under 30 and a half when you get into the same game parlay mode unfortunately that's a flaw someone could solve that that'd be a nice thing because you're just betting these one-way markets you know you're sometimes you don't even have visibility to what the actual number is too once you're just clicking in the over number and just watch it populate into the parlay but you don't even know what that actual odds of that bet is so it's tough they know what they're doing all right we are that was my damien pierce all right so

halfway through connor number three you're hanging out in the chat, let us know. Questions, anything that you're looking at this week, we can get to that at the end of the show if we have time. Connor, hit us. So one that I have not released yet and I still really like and that I've been eyeing here, Kalief Raymond just dropped down to 33.5 receiving yards. It looks like Josh Reynolds is not going to play again.

This is like the same situation essentially as last week, but now getting a Bears defense who the last two weeks since trading away Robert Quinn, straight away real fun. Smith allowed a 73% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, dead last in both EPA and explosive pass rate. Now that was against the Cowboys and Dolphins, but so they're probably not the stone cold worst, but they're definitely bad.

And I think that like, if we kind of look at the game, like there is, they're not getting much pressure anymore. They're like bottom five, six and pressure eight and over that time span as well. So in this specific spot here, I think that Jared Goff and the Lions offense has a little bit more, you know, success than they have been,

especially through the passing game. And you can probably ladder this to him. If you get like 40 plus 50 plus 60 plus, you can probably get some nice odds there. And he's hit the over on 33 and a half in four of his last five games. And he's hit 70 plus in the last two of three. The only reason this number is this low is because he went three for 17 against the Packers, where Jared Goff had like 26 pass attempts, and they didn't really have to do anything through the air

because they ran the ball to Jamal Williams 30 times. So I think that over is a strong lean. I wasn't going to play it at like 40 where it opened, but now it's at 33.5. I think it's a solid put there. You stole this from my sheet. I't like that oh man sorry pat but i yes i like this as well i see everything that you see yeah we wanted raymond last week too and they didn't come out until really later they only posted i think yards and we were looking for

receptions or something but we're in the head but i think the look is great because it's like 90 route 90 route participation last couple of weeks. Like he's playing a ton. 95% of the snaps last week as well. And, you know, sometimes I ask him to block. Not often though. And usually the times that he's not on the field are for first down because he's returning kickoffs.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Josh Reynolds is not playing. He hasn't practiced in two weeks. He's, you know, he didn't practice again today. Like there's no way that he's going to be game day active after not practicing a bunch. So, yeah, I like the Raymond stuff quite a bit.

I am going to go to my guy. This one's been hitting for me a ton. Danny Jones, under 186 and a half passing yards. I think I have him projected at 140. And this is a game where it's funny that his, like, there were some weeks it was like 220 and a half it was like good lord like what are these people smoking i like it i don't want any of

you keep smoking and i'll bet against you well you are but this is a good secondary it's the only thing that the texans do well and you can run all over them why would you ever pass in this game yeah even us again we are typically pretty high on quarterback stuff. We are under this number as well. So, Connor, any thoughts to Daniel Jones? Yeah, but they're getting Kenny Galladay back, right? That'll put him over the edge. No, yeah, I looked at this a bunch,

and I didn't really have too strong of a lead. I want to play the under because I think that both sides skew, like, massively run heavy, and that, like, kills volume in general as well. So that, like, kind of tends towards, you know, the under as is. So, yeah, I think that's a great look. Yeah, you won't get the boosted odds because they'll be all correlated, but some, you know, passing unders here correlated with some rushing overs would make a pretty nice – a little bit longer, a little bit bigger

same-game parlay, but I think you can get a couple of legs on, add a Saquon, add a Pierce, short Davis Mills, short Daniel Jones, and you could be off and running because I do think you see a lot of running back carries here. All right, I am going to pop out for a minute. I'll be right back. I'm excited to hear your next one. Oh, you're going to love it.

Hit me with it before you before i take off so we can do it with uh with your boy tyreek amari cooper over 62 and a half receiving yards love it love it oh man we got the pat mayo stamp of approval yeah you can put these two together connor and i both are on this um dolphins have been a pass funnel all season long basically 31st against the past and a lot of meaningful metrics. Struggle to generate pressure, but they blitz a ton. They blitz on a third of their snaps. But they are bottom three in blitz success rate on the season,

which is not good. Maybe they were able to generate a little bit more pressure with Bradley Chubb in town, but I don't imagine that they're going to go away from this blitz heavy scheme here. They also play a lot of single high. They run a ton of single high cover three stuff. And Jacoby Brissett and Marty Cooper have pretty significant splits against cover two and against single high stuff. So I'm not going to read those to you because it's very boring for you to listen to me read these numbers.

But success rate, points above average per play, explosive play rate, they're all drastically different in single high versus cover two for both Jacoby and for Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper to the moon, ladders here, Connor. We're in on Amari Cooper. I'm waiting for him. They'll be dropping soon, I think. But Ryan, he's only good at home.

Is that a thing? So far this year, yeah, if you look at his splits. He went over for me on the road in Baltimore. I don't think by a lot, but in the first quarter, I think he did. He was 4 for 74 in that game. But at home, he's been seven for one 31 or sorry, five for one 31, seven for 76 for,

no, that was on the road. No, that was at home to four for 44 and nine for one Oh one, seven for one Oh one on the road. It's been like three for 17, one for nine. It's just,

it's really bizarre. And it's funny because in Dallas, it was always, you can only play him in Dallas because he sucks outdoors. And now none of that makes any sense. No, no. Love the Amari spot. I think he absolutely crushes here. You know, got in the weeds a little bit on some of the coverage stuff.

But again, like we posted in the Discord at 4 for 4. You can read it there. I'm not going to read you these numbers, but it's pretty massive splits for both these dudes, Connor. So we're going to read you these numbers but uh it's pretty massive splits for both these dudes connor so we're gonna we're gonna find some ladders i yeah i think also too no no and joku maybe i mean i don't really know how much that even matters but i feel like it just like still elevates maybe his target ceiling you know if anything there so true let's see here what what's the regular over under number just straight up 62 i think 62 so i can go over

59 and a half and tyreek over 89 and a half that gives me that's plus 195 that's actually not bad no it's not bad and i've taken those numbers down a little bit as well i think you'll probably be able to get um some sites will let you you know just take alts um both get both guys getting over 100 probably gonna be like seven to one eight to one on both guys to go over 100 yards so let's let's see here uh i can go amari over 89 and a half and tyreek over over 109 try that out that's six to one what do we what do we think about this, too? Donovan Peoples-Jones, throwing him in there. Over under 41.5, and 81, 71, 74, 50, and 71 the last five games. Yeah, you throw in over 40 yards for him, it's now 10-1.

Ooh. Okay. Yeah, and that's another spot where I think the Njoku thing matters, right? Like, at least as far as the concentration of targets, I don't think we saw Harrison Bryant. Everyone was hoping to get Harrison Bryant work against the Bengals and that spot goose egg. I think it's just going to go out to the wide receivers here.

So yeah, I like that quite a bit. Nice little DPJ addition, 10 to one we're cooking. I mean, Tyreek getting to a hundred yards, like it's pretty low threshold for what that dude's doing. It's almost as normal prop at this point. So we're not asking a whole lot there. So, all right, Connor, I mean, Tyreek getting to 100 yards, it's a pretty low threshold for what that dude's doing. It's almost his normal prop at this point, so we're not asking a whole lot there. All right, Connor, number four.

Yeah, I don't have a number four. I was just going to talk about a few other things that I was looking at with you guys here. You're stealing my bet. I know. They're slow rolling these props more and more each week. It is crazy. There's less than half the games out or half the stuff out for those games, which is very strange.

Kyler Murray, see, this is an issue. I don't even know if he's going to play. It looks like Kyler and Matthew Stafford are both, I don't know, 50-50. But I was looking for his rushing unders specifically, if we're able to get that. It looks like he has some kind of hammy issue. I think that that could be an interesting look as well ryan tannehill unders against denver you don't think he's gonna play no okay well then then malik willis unders i mean malik willis unders like

what are they gonna be like 99 passing yards like i don't even know what i mean like it was 140 151 last week uh i mean i don't know i would probably bet under like 120 what do i have him at i have tan like we have tannahill in at run the sims um but i i just i don't think he's gonna play he has a he has a high ankle sprain you don't come back from that right away yeah yeah i don't care what the malik stuff is connor i mean i don't know it's been they're not even trying and you can kind of run on denver and denver is like one of the best if not the best pass defense in the league yeah best pass worst run yeah i mean it's not the spot where you turn malik willis loose as a passer i think they would just do what they did last week and they come out of the gate and show you that they'll take shots over the top. Sure.

And then never do it again. Yep. I mean, what is 75% of his yards came on? Like, what is that a fullback or a tight end screen or whatever? Like, I don't remember that guy's name,

but it was, no, it was, it was someone else. Oh yeah. It was one of their backup tight end. I'm going to, I'll butcher his name,

but yeah oh yeah chiku it's a nigerian game yes yeah yeah you get the same game parlay denver rushing unders in that game too i mean tennessee's almost the opposite they are not letting much on the ground and uh priest out against the pass and denver seems to continue to want to run especially on early down so yeah it's a good spot there are any other looks your list Connor that you want to pop out there um well I think that that was those are the two main ones there is like the Tannehill under for sure but I have like you know a laundry list here of just other other stuff as well but those are the two main ones I think that are more actionable for listeners specifically. Pat, your list or your fourth or however you'd like to go about it.

What do you think? Oh, they're not going to offer Schultz on a receiving prop? Good God. I'm going to go with this percent. It just dropped in real time as we were talking. So now it's at 14 and a half. Even better. Over.

Jacoby percent. 14 and a half rushing yards. He's good for like three attempts a game. As you mentioned, if it's going to be blitz heavy team, Miami playing man, Miami going to be great news for Jacoby Brissett here. Yeah, I like it. Let me see. Let's look at some game locks. If we could see anything around blitz heavy teams, see if he's done anything uh new england plays a ton of man let's see if i could find this scrimmage uh let's see brissette six for 12 last week against cincinnati uh some of those were the kneel downs baltimore three for 18 did nothing against uh new england the chargers

three for 32 atlanta five for 16 three for 11 6 for 43 4 for 10 like he's not fast when you see him run he runs in molasses but again if guys have their backs to the line of scrimmage and he beats a guy outside just on a broken coverage he gets us all in one swoop yeah they played a ton like basically like they've played they haven't really played anyone that plays outside of New England that plays a ton of man or blitzes a lot to be honest so like they've had a unique schedule so there's not a lot but you'd like to see the attempts even against cincinnati he broke out six times like that's encouraging so he'll have more opportunities to do so here so yeah i like that look it's a low threshold and we've you know he's gone over that even despite

that not happening a lot at least more than half the games of the season so it's good luck uh any others on your list that you're waiting for i mean i was waiting for the is it dull or dull dull titch greg dull titch dull titch is that how we're saying it whatever it is like what are we getting his over at is it going to be in the 30s or 40s, do you think? I thought he was out. 39.5 was last time. I think it dropped for a little bit. I thought someone bet it. It's 39.5 on DraftKings.

I'm seeing it's all over the map. A site that can't be named, 42.5. MGM is 41.5. Points bet, 45.5. Caesars and DraftKings, 39.5. I see. I didn't see it on DraftKings. That's weird.

Rig. It's flashing on the screens that I have, so I'm guessing that it's being... It may have just got added because I have the screen open. If I... Let's see. Yeah, it's still not there for me. Yeah, maybe it's getting hit. That's why it's moving a little bit in some other spots like i have no one like i don't have that game available to me for any props

in the receipt either it's just like everything's off the board for that game yeah but i i like his over i haven't projected around like 52 53 yards okay yeah so even low 40s probably pretty safe yeah i'm guessing because we have such a usually don't have this big of a discrepancy between numbers and because it's flashing a little bit on this odd screen that I have, it means it's probably getting hit at a bunch of different spots at the same time. So a group of some sort probably pushed that out. So Mayo's got in the low 50s,

probably comfortable up until 45 and a half or so. Prize picks has them at 39 and a half. I like that. Yeah, that's nice. All right, no problem with that one um last one for me a couple others to get to or that i'm looking for well in that same spot i like jared golf i'm considering putting that out under 34 and a half attempts uh i don't know what you have that number at pap and like they're skewing even more run heavy and the bears kind of force you to skew

a little bit more run heavy too which teams have in general like their pass rate over expectation against them is like negative eight and i think that the lions are very comfortable if you can allow us to run all over you we will do so so i think tiny hands golf cold weather in chicago you know maybe you see a little bit more deandre swift this week i think you see a lot of carries there um so that's a consideration i have not put that out but my last is christian kirk over 63 and a half receiving yards chiefs have really struggled against slot receivers and i think jacksonville leans pass heavy because they have to um again i do think etn gets his stuff but they're just going to be forced to keep up here chiefs have allowed the third most yards per game to slot receivers,

six highest success rates. We've seen some pretty drastic splits when both Zay Jones and Marvin Jones are healthy. That forces Kirk into the slot. Otherwise, they push him outside. They put Jamal Agnew in the slot, and that's a very different game for Christian Kirk. So now with Marv outside, Zay outside,

you're going to see nothing but slot snaps for Christian Kirk. It's three receiver sets. He's averaging 5.6 receptions, 75 yards per game in those spots versus 41.3 yards per game. And he's taking the majority outside. So just in the spot where it feels a little heavy. And I think, you know, a lot of media projections probably have him right at this number. Maybe even a little bit below. I don't think it's accounting for the matchup and then kind of how the team interacts when he's out there. So I like Christian Kirk quite a bit. I like how you have described why you like him because I like him for the same reasons. But you are correct. My projections have him less than this.

Yeah, I looked and I knew that we were under on the run the Sims number there. So, Connor, any thoughts for you? You're muted. He doesn't care. Oh man. He just wants to get to the wedding. Wow. That's a, that's a first in a while.

I was, I was on a pretty good roll there of being muted and talking like once an episode for a good portion of last year. This might be a first this year, at least for a little while, but no, I like it. I think the numbers, it felt about right. think you i were bond bullish on lawrence this week i think that they're gonna push the pace a little bit maybe dabble in some lawrence alts i don't know i couldn't really get uh to play like the 249 i felt like that was just kind of about right just

given kind of what we've seen from him this year but i mean this this game could certainly explode i think uh at least the i think the jags could maybe hang around enough to cover if uh if lawrence and the offense feels up to it doesn't throw like backbreaking interceptions in the red zone uh tackles to look for no tackles on the board now but uh tackles to notes a couple spots i really like tremaine edmonds uh linebacker for the bills i think we're gonna have weather here a little bit too. It looks like rain or maybe sleet or snow. And I think the game script is going to be a little bit more close because I feel pretty confident.

I know Connor does as well. We don't see Josh Allen, but either way, um, Tremaine Edwards probably going to be hung at eight and a half, which is basically where he always is. He has at least nine and four straight, a couple into like the low teens.

Um, Matt Milano is probably out here. Either way, Edmonds plays every down and has been really a ball hawk. So I think you see maybe a little bit more running from the Vikings because they can, because they'll be probably in more neutral script than what they would be against Josh Allen. And that's a good spot for an over. I'm also going to look at Julian Love, safety for the Giants. We just talked about how we expect a lot of Texan runs.

Unfortunately, we cannot same game parlay tackles with anything, but Love plays a lot of box snaps. The other guy that plays a little bit in the box is Xavier McKinney. Somehow during the bye, he broke his hand. He's out. They'll mix in Landon Collins a little little bit he's not an every down guy but uh julian love probably gonna be hung around five and a half i think it probably should be six and a half so we'll take a julian love over there and then we'll go back to cam curl uh cam curl for washington they're just gonna run a ton against the uh commanders the

eagles are on Monday nights. Curl has an insane box rate plays like almost 50% of the snaps in the box. They're leading tackler. Cole Holcomb is out. Did not practice again today. Did not practice last week. Just leads. Their other linebackers are pretty terrible.

So there's just going to be a lot of opportunities for curl. You know, again, probably be at five and a half. So pretty low number for Kim curl. I imagine. Cause that's a Monday night game. They do hang them but uh we'll have to wait and see those are my three favorite tackle looks uh currently again nothing posted but we'll have to wait and see also good way to play this is price picks because price picks will play the flat number even if it gets juiced to

like minus 170 minus 180 they won't move that they typically will continue to play that same number so if there's some guys that you like like oftentimes there'll be a guy that i like and i just don't want to play a minus 170 i'll play it on price picks instead so it's an interesting look in case you're thinking of dabbling the props i'll throw this out here for the people too you can parlay tackle props together as long as they're not in the same game on bet three, six, five, if you want to. I started adding them to my vivid slips, like on the vivid picks app that just like continuously posts like the stainless lines ever.

And just like is always like hours behind the market if anything happens. So that's been my go-to in case any news breaks or anything, you know, like starting quarterback out. I mean, they're posting Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis at like normal numbers. Well, Steph Diggs Gabe Davis at normal numbers. Well, Steph Diggs should be at normal numbers. I was thinking about Steph Diggs.

You think he's fine? What's that? You think he'll be fine with Keenum? Yeah. I mean, this was a guy who didn't have any problems putting up their 120 a game with Case Keenum before. Yeah. And Minnesota's so bad, big plays. It's a dangerous spot to chase.

Unless the weather breaks and we think the weather is going to be worse than it is. It's always going to be not great. But like, I don't know. Steph Diggs is not used to that by now. Should be fine for my look. What is Vivid Picks? Is that like porn pics? It's like, you know what Vivid Seats is?

Like that app to buy tickets? I was more familiar with vivid the porno site but sure they spawned off and made like a prize picks app or whatever and they have like one guy doing all their trading so they just copy drafting's lines and then just never move them so uh yeah it's great it's uh i mean i don't know it's i would say otherwise it's the payouts are pretty bad but i mean it doesn't matter if, like, the lines are, like, 30 yards off, you know. Yeah, that works.

Promo code 444. We got a link? We do, yeah. We do. Well, promo code 444 works. That's fine. I do have a question, but one more just dropped. Sam Ellinger over under 28 and a half pass attempts.

I kind of lean under. I just feel like both teams are just going to run the ball and get out of there, but it's already kind of a low number. So, I don't know. He got to 29 last week, but they're literally losing the entire game. I don't know. Taylor looks like he's back. Exactly. Taylor back too.

Pat, do you have any Ellinger projections up? I have them for 30 attempts. Yeah. That's the issue. It feels like it's probably about right on most mean, median projections. Yeah, and you have to remember, he has so many incompletions that then he has to throw again.

If he was completing more passes, this wouldn't be an issue. True. Maybe under completions is the... The issue is the Raiders' defense is so bad. So, so bad. 17.5 completions. I don't know. Seems a little off bad. 17 and a half completions. That, that,

I don't know. It seems a little, I haven't met 18 completions. So yeah, yeah. Probably just pass. What do you think, Joe?

We have John Wolford in our projections right now, instead of Matt Stafford. You think those rushing yards over rushing yards over. Oh yeah. Well, first of all, it's a great matchup because the, the Cardinals are

the team that we like one of the teams we like to do this like gino hit both times comfortably against them a lot of man a lot of blitz but like wolford can run all right that's his that's kind of his thing so yeah i mean if that's like high 20s or 30s um yeah wolford rushing yards over will be a play for me for sure yeah he had over 100 rushing attempts three of the four years at Wake, so that makes sense. Yeah, he can run. We do not have him projected for many passing errors. I think that when I went in to make my adjustments to put him in

to see what was going on, I think I basically just transferred over Stafford's stats. Which is very generous, but also not great because Stafford's stats have been pretty terrible too. Yeah, that's why he's not out of control. Yeah, we still got Stafford and no Wolford from us. But they can't run though, remember that. No, they cannot.

I took under on their team total. I talked about it last night on our game preview show. I teased up both team totals a little bit to take under 24 and a half for the Cardinals, under 24 and a half for the Rams. That's like minus 120 out there on a couple of sites. Those teams are not getting there. They have not.

The Rams haven't got there like six of the last seven games. They've had 20 or fewer points. All right, there we go. I just increased Wofford's rushing share to 15% of the Rams, and now he's up to four for 16. I would guess it comes in a lot lower than that. How did he do in his playoff game, rushing-wise?

Well, the one playoff game, he got, like, concussed right away, right? Like, the Seahawks game. He had played the week before, though. Yeah, he ran. Well, he only has two rushes for minus one yard this year. That's in V formation, though. So that's probably not indicative, I'm guessing. Let's see.

Yeah, no, he only ran one time against the Seahawks for two yards. He ran six for 56 against the Cardinals. That's it. Yeah, because that's the play he got concussed on in the first quarter against the Seahawks. Okay. I'm adding that to the list when those eventually drop because he's it. Yeah. So that's the play he got concussed on the first quarter against the Seahawks. Yeah. Okay. I'm adding that to the list when those eventually drop because he's playing. Like, let's be real. Yeah.

Like, Allen's not playing. Tannehill's not playing. Stafford's not playing. That's happening. Agreed. All right. So a couple of minutes left. We've got some questions here in the chat.

Let's kind of pound through these a little bit. SC, best way to attack bad Texans run defense. Looked at Saquon props, but they looked high already. Yes, but, like, I mean, I don't know what too high is. Like, again, I know, Connor, that's not a place that you like to go to, but I think based off of talking to you a little bit, I even feel like you're okay with that. I just don't see how they go away from that off the bye. I knowan neal's not there but again that's the texans are bad tackling

linebackers they have bad tackling safeties it's a it's not a good team so yeah no i'm into it i think it's a good i was on my list it was on my list but i was hoping to get something like the 80s and then it was like 94 and i was like, like, I think he goes over that still probably, but I don't know. It's not my vibe, you know? Yeah, the wiggle room, I mean, I haven't projected for 110 rushing yards, so that's a median projection. Yeah, I think that's what we have, too, the same number. There's a couple of them, like Henry, Barkley, Etchane, Chubb.

I have all for over 100 rushing yards. I think Saquon's the only one that we have projected for over, but the other guys are close. No, Henry too. So, yeah. Yeah, no problem with it. SC, I mean, it's the way to go. Gosh, no, it's no over or nothing.

Do not try to get cute here and chase it under. Brian Sullivan, thoughts on Devontae Smith receiving yards versus Washington when it opens? Obviously not out yet. 12 for 169 in the one game this year. I wouldn't chase anything with a one-game sample, but again, Washington's run is pretty stout. You can beat them through the air.

No idea what it is. Probably going to be in the low to mid-50s there. Any thoughts on that, Connor? If I remember correctly, the reason that he got involved so much that game was because washington brings a lot of pressure really good and eagles offensive line got banged up that game like they lost like two or three starters so they had to get the ball out like like right away like it was just like really quick throws um and so i if i remember correctly that's why he like went off but i mean some of i mean the eagles offensive line is like healthier at this point but the was Washington is still getting pretty good pressure.

I believe they're like fifth in pressure or something like that. So I wouldn't rule it out of it still being the same kind of strategy there with maybe just replacing the running game with a quick passing game. But I'm not sure it's something that I really want to bet on specifically. Yeah. Someone wants to know our thoughts on Cam Brate and Otten when either hits the board. I mean, I think Cam Brate practiced.

I don't know what's going to happen there. Yeah, I think that he's playing. I would just stay away from both of them. I have no idea. But Otten looks a lot better than Brate, right? He does. But you know they're going to use Brate. Totally going to use Brate.

It's just like the Richard White thing. It's like, yeah, it's great and everything. You might think that he's really good. They're going to play Leonard Fournard for that yeah it does not matter josh wants to know how do you guys feel about uh reek 125 and waddle 100 combo special for 901 on dk uh seems like it's a bit steep to tell you the truth like is that like a specialty like boost that you're getting or is that a same game partly because at that point you might as well just put two over 300 yards into it as well right yeah the wording here combo special I'm guessing it's probably one of those pre-populated

ones that they would like you to bet on which is always slightly alarming uh when you open the app and it's the first thing there and they're telling you hey you can bet on this just like these other 15 000 people did you probably should just continue to scroll uh continue to look for other things there's a reason that that's uh that's above the fold well i i like so it was over 125 and over 100 that's what it was yeah okay so if i go into let's see same game parlay for that game just to see what it would pay on its own if you just use that feature instead receiving props

this is going to be great if it's like low it's like higher than the sometimes that's the case though like don't overlook that not being a thing so it was waddle over a hundred right yeah so they will only offer up to 94 and a half. So we'll take over 94 and a half.

And the most that they'll give you on Tyreek is 119. So over 119 pays eight to one. And those are lower thresholds. So that seems to be in line with just like what the market is. Yeah. I don't hate it. Yeah. I don't like to do that.

Some sort of like explosive parlay, though. I'd rather pick like pick one guy that you think is going to go. Absolutely bananas in this spot. Almost like, what was it? Jacoby Myers against the jets a few weeks ago. Like I played the eight or more receptions on him. They paid like 10 to one.

It's because like, this is where they're going to go. If you have a feel for something like that, I would just say the more it's like any sort of parlay, the more elements that you add in the more variables the less successful it's going to be yeah you keep pushing those numbers and you think you're taking all lines you're like okay you're like all of a sudden i have eight legs what happens uh yeah obviously they love for you to do that something i like about draft kings too

is that you can uh add alternate unders so like you know like last week, I put a Swift alternate under in a same-game parlay, and then you can parlay out of something else. It's a good way to... You can't same-game parlay unders on any other website, from my understanding, at least that I've seen domestically in the United States. So DraftKings is the only place that does that, and it's a good way to...

If you get some reports that some guy's not going to play that much like we did last week with Swift, then it's a good way to capitalize there. Good call. All right. Thoughts on pickings for this week? Claypool gone. Lattimore probably out again.

I mean, Claypool's running in the slot a lot. I think that that could bode well maybe for – Fryermuth. Fryermuth. Not necessarily any of these receivers. And I want to believe in kenny pickett and maybe there's that like rookie post by bump um i'm not super excited about it but um you know i think pittsburgh is probably live to win that has more to do with maybe annie dalton

and tj walk coming back than any george pickens or kenny pickens emergence but uh what do you guys think anything there i have no feel for that game everyone loves pittsburgh i pick pittsburgh just they could be terrible too though right yeah i think they are terrible i wanted to go back to the well with firemuth but uh new orleans has been uh like elite for multiple seasons against the tight end i think so i don't know i mean it was enough to for me not to smash the over because i feel like firemuth has already seen a ton of work with Pickett. Number's only 41.5 receiving yards. He can still probably get there, to be honest. But, meh. Javon wants to know about golf under 22.5 completions.

Yeah, I talked about the golf attempts. I think the attempts number at 34.5 is too high, but I can get there on the completions as well. The problem with the completions is it could be a lot of low ADOT stuff to Amon Ra, it could be dump-offs to Swift. Even Kalief Raymond's stuff could be low ADOT too, so that would make me a little nervous, but no problem shorting Goff in the weather here.

Gil, Josh Jacobs over-carries without Renfro and Waller. Yeah, and the news just broke that Shaq Leonard is out here. So we'll add Zaire Franklin and Bobby Okereke to the tackle props looks here. So I do think you see a lot of Josh Jacobs. I don't know what the number of carries is. Probably like 21, 22 and a half or something like that. Yeah. We picked off a rogue number at 15 and a half carries like an hour before the show.

I mean, yeah, I like pinged our Discord. I was like, this number is going to move in like a couple minutes, but just like fire as much as you can. Because the real number is like 21 and a half on drafting. So it got pulled. So obviously not going to mention that as an official play on the show, but it was glorious while it lasted. Yeah, I could see him going over.

But, I mean, you just don't have a huge margin to bet that in my opinion, but you very easily could have a great day doing on 18, 19 carries and you felt like the process is good and you fell short. So not a bettable edge for me, but what do you guys think?

Pat, I don't know what your projection is on Jacobs. I think it's 18 carries. Exactly. I mean, I just, I like it to think about the exactly i mean i just i like it to think about the game to think about the injuries to think about the flow it makes all the sense in the world but the number isn't where i love it's not where i want it to be put it that way okay with that all right last one uh kelsey over 70 and a half yards uh we're a little under that number uh it's just such a like it's such a great passing offense

but it's just so hard to pinpoint where they're going to go um yeah i mean any thoughts there pat i i if i'm going to go with one of the heavier yardage totals like i haven't projected as under i think it makes sense that he would go over but like i'd rather just eat the 20 yards and take tyreek jay on shout out jags 30 second dead last dvoa against tight end so not a bad look there uh yeah connor any thoughts there it's probably not it's not your bag typically yeah yeah i mean i think it's it's fine yeah jay brown brings up a good point too but i think i think tony's gonna start playing a bigger role too. I'm interested to see how that impacts, who that impacts, and like where that matters, whether it'll be Juju. Hardman's been playing really well.

I don't know if they're going to take him off. He didn't practice today, which is interesting. Not? Okay. Nicole did not with some of that abdomen, it said. I'm not going to lie. I feel like Kedarious Tony is super talented and a guy that he just like didn't want to play in New York. And I think he's awesome.

So I'd love to bank some overs on him, just speculatively. And I know it's almost entirely narrative-driven, and I'm totally fine with that. I think that he's just a baller. You probably should just play a DFS lineup with him instead. Yeah, and I'll hit some alt overs and then just not play it officially. That's it. No official plays.

Can't get you to jump in the DFS streets ever. No, I play like a lineup or two a week just for fun. All right, gentlemen, that wraps us up. Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? Mayo media network on the YouTube channel,

Pat Mayo experience on the audio podcast, myself and tower Tambolini, who's going for his final king of the beach seat this week on draft Kings. After coming in second place on thursday night he has four of them already so essentially what he's telling me is he's not going to be doing my show in week 13 but that that show i talked through with him is up now and we've switched up how we do that show it's no longer hey here's running back here are the picks here's wide receiver here are the picks we kind of take skeleton builds of each of the

popular stacks or stacks that we like this week and work on different ways to make it a bit unique. Everyone wants to play Justin Fields on DraftKings this week. That's great. He's a good play. How do you make Justin Fields lineups that aren't the same as everyone else's? So that's really what the show has become about on Fridays now. So I think it's a pretty interesting conversation. If you like to play on DraftKings, obviously, or any daily fantasy would work where you construct lineups uh just hearing people go back and forth and what their ideas are going to be and then learning things in real time being like oh what if I did this this and this like Tambo is like a visionary when it comes to that sort of thing like he wasn't gonna play Fields then we built this Fields like skeleton he was

like you know what he was like John Nash in a beautiful mind. He was like, if I do that, then that, then that, oh, that works. Yeah. I don't, uh, I don't really start my DFS thoughts until Friday nights in Saturday. Um, but it is one of the shows that I listen to. You also start with like, yeah, I think you use run the Sims to, to run your first, like here's what the cash optimal is going to be and pivot off of that. And where can we build off of that? And what's good shock? What's bad shock? I think it's a really good show for regardless if you're playing single

entry cash tournaments, I think it's a really good spot. And again, listening to the stuff that Tambo does is pretty smart too. So, and also tonight, Friday night on our YouTube channel here, four for four,

you can check out Daigle and TJ Hernandez going through their thoughts for DFS as well. Again, 444.com slash plans promo code next level gets you 25% off of an already 50% discounted betting subscription at 444 through the end of February. Again, I feel like best bang for your buck in the industry to get the community that happens in the discord. I think it's great. It gets you access to everything too. So if you want to have all the DFS optimizers,

all the articles, all the tools, all that stuff, get the betting sub. It's the best way to do it. So Connor, enjoy St. Louis.

We'll be back next week. So do your best for Connor and Pat. I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next week. you