Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 11 2023 Player PROP BETS

Episode Date: November 17, 2023

Join us in this exciting breakdown of Week 11 NFL 2023 Player Prop Bets, where we delve into comprehensive predictions, top picks, and the latest odds! Our expert analysis focuses on key players such as Aidan O'Connell, providing valuable insights for both seasoned bettors and newcomers.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelGet $250 in FREE Bets at ESPN Bet  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3QHPZa0Full Details & Disclaimers  👉🏼 https://www.bleachernation.com/espn-b...Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/sloprulesVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here, 2pm Eastern every Friday on the 444Bets YouTube channel, giving out favorite player props here with my friends. And we're taking your questions as well.

Sometimes favorite part of the show. If you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look is for Week 11. You want our thoughts on the play, something that's not on the board currently, anything like that, feel free to ask. We'll get to as many as we possibly can here at the end of the show. Joining us on YouTube is the best chance to get the same number and price on these props. They move fast. You prefer the podcast version. You should be able to find that in your podcast feeds later here on Friday evening, wherever you're consuming

this podcast. We greatly appreciate it. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. If you are, yeah, this is free content. So again, little things like subscribing, thumbs up, all those things go a very, very long way. We appreciate it very much. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Finally, through the thick of wedding season i'm done for the year so excited only to have uh a birthday party and an engagement party uh tonight so it just never ends you know like i every time i'm like man i need to be sober like it just like i can't get away from it maybe i just need to like move to like you know some random country so i can stop you know drinking and partying every weekend because it's taking a toll on my body right now i mean i've known you for a long time now um you're not that great like why do you have so

many friends you know like that's the thing i don't know it's it's my wife honestly it's not they're not my friends okay that checks out that is awesome okay okay well that makes more sense yeah this is uh it's been a busy season but yeah you're at home today which is good to see but uh excited i think we're gonna have some spice here. I know our third here definitely has some, as he always does, joining us from Odds Jam. You can find him on Twitter at Slop Rules. John Hyslop, how we doing today? So living the dream, guys.

It's funny, Ryan. I was looking through the slate and I couldn't find anything other than like super spicy. Like that's it. Like there's nothing. There's no crispy, no grill. Just it's just spicy. Twice baked? Yep.

No, none of that. Just spicy. Maybe spicy twice baked. Side of dipping sauce too. I'm excited to get into the spice today. It's going to be a good time. I love the spice section of the show. I feel like the spice section of the show, which is like, you know,

we do three props each. You know, the middle one is the spicy section. I feel like the spice is like bleeding into the rest of the show. It's like you put the sauce on the plate. It's designated just for one thing. And then it slowly starts to get into everything else. That's how I end up putting A1 on my green beans. Because like as a kid, you know, you gets on the plate with a steak you know

and then all of a sudden you're like there's a bunch of this these green beans taste really good with yeah one now i get with a one on my green beans so yeah it's just we're spicy all throughout the plate so it's kind of what's happening here i'm excited about this all right uh again two episodes of move line each week in addition to this prop drop show here on Fridays. Connor and I are joined by Sharp Clark for our game preview show, More Sides and Totals. That is 3 p.m. Eastern on Wednesdays. Again, you will find that if you subscribe to either the podcast or the 4Bets YouTube channel.

If you want the official place, you want the Discord, you want access to us to talk to us all the time, you want access to all the other uh four or four staffers you need the betting subscription you need to get into Discord the betting sub is dirt cheap right now talked about it last week some of you took me up on it I think this is the last week for this deal I'm not sure we you know we're getting into like discount season but like this one is fantastic it's already discounted 50 because we're you know week 11 Promo code BETS50, B-E-T-S-5-0, gets you an additional 50% off of an already 50% discounted subscription.

Join us if you're playing on any of the Pick'Em sites. We've got channels there too. Again, gets you access to everything at 444. So you're still grinding your season long. You want to get into the best ball, playoff streets, and high-stakes stuff. I know Connor does a lot of good stuff in terms of like FFPC playoff drafts and all that's going to be under the umbrella of the betting subscription. Even if you're not just exclusively betting again,

four for four.com slash plans, promo code bets 50 for another 50% off. All right. We can love live lines. No stale bread. These are things that you can bet on right now. Our goal is to make sure that we can get that to you as quick as possible. Again, transparency.

This is free. But Connor and I put these plays in our Discord moments before we share them here on the show. So our subscribers have the best chance to get the lines before they move because they move pretty quickly, especially with you viewers watching and hitting. So take advantage of that deal. Connor floor is yours. First play week 11. Yeah, for sure. And these are available also always at multiple different places. So maybe you don't have one book or, you know, one line gets blasted faster than another. You got plenty of opportunity for more. So this one is available at FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, PropBuilder, a lot of different spots. And I know that this is going to make Noonan smile here. Adam Thielen, over 5.5 receptions.

This is minus 130 on FanDuel. This opened at 6.5, juiced on the under, and slowly crept its way down to 5.5. I don't really understand it. He has six or more receptions in seven of nine games this season, now draws the Cowboys. Thielen's the primary target against man coverage with a 38% target against man coverage.

Cowboys play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. And on top of that, we have Frank Reich taking back over play calling duty. We've seen it early in the season. Things came out and they're like, yeah, Frank Reich drew a place for Adam Thielen. There were plays that they could not run on the field without Adam Thielen playing. And so we saw him be an absolute target hog. And then on top of that, they're 10 point dogs, probably be throwing a bunch. Um, and so I think the feeling is going

to get six plus receptions pretty easily. Uh, and I know I talked with Noonan already, but there's a spicy way to play it too. On FanDuel, um, you can do seven or eight plus receptions and under 56 receiving yards. And you're looking at 11 to one on seven receptions in that combo. And 30, I think it's 30 to one on the eight receptions and under 56 yards, a little bit of negative correlated parlay. So I played a little bit of all that, but I really,

really liked the base one of over five and a half receptions. I love to see the spices into the front part of the show. Like the spice was over here. It was almost like we put, we used to put the a one on the side to dip and now we just put it on the plate. It the show like the spice was over here it was almost like we put we used to put the a1 on the side to dip and now we just put it on the plate it's and we're the first play connor's talking about uncorrelated parlays they're playing like 30 to 1 i this is fantastic i love the play too i was surprised that we were back down to like five and a half for thielen

because the slot is the softest place to attack the dallas defense with the trayvon digs injury uh you know deron bland moved out to the outside jordan lewis in the slot has been attacked softest place to attack the Dallas defense with the Trayvon Diggs injury. You know, they're on bland moved out to the outside. Jordan Lewis in the slot has been attacked pretty extensively with success too. So it also is kind of like the weakest link here in the Dallas off our Dallas defense. Slop, what are your thoughts here on,

on Thielen and Connor Spice? He, he had me at over. I locked it in right away. Just a simple, just, just that easy. One more, maybe. See, Slop's not a difficult guy. It's all he needs.

Just keep it clean, keep it easy. I love the play, Connor, and I like the added layer of spice to it too. Slop, the floor is yours. What's your first look here for week 11? All right, sonor's probably gonna hate this he's probably got this guy's under yardage but just hear me out this sounds crazy but i don't think it's that crazy how about touchdown tommy devito two plus touchdown passes that's it just two when he's not setting a record here not doing something you know someone's never done that's plus 450 at caesars what like how like they're playing the

red or they're playing the commander sorry about that they're playing the commanders the commanders have given up that's not my fault guys that's not my fault i was always raised you know i'm saying you can't just change a team's name like that's yeah that's true canceled i'm on hold i mean they were like that forever so anyways they've given up more touchdowns than any other uh team in the nfl touchdown passes at least so who's to say the giants don't just start getting smoked just like they did last week it's the cowboys and then somehow this dude throws two touchdown passes against a charm and soft secondary so what i mean what are we doing plus 450 for two that's it i'm like i'm i can't stop thinking about it i've been thinking about this literally all morning uh connor i i know our uh

our game preview guy here uh sharp clark is is like in on this game too um and would probably be in on this prop what are your thoughts here on uh on danny devito you know he's gonna have a good meal slop right he's gonna have a good breakfast you know mom's gonna pick him up something good he's gonna go home he lives at home with his mom and dad you know they're they're at home just gassing them up too they're a little gobble the night before you know yeah. Show up so confident. And again, two. Yeah. I mean, for the odds, I don't hate it. I, you know, I'm not betting it. Um, but I understand that I didn't take his under, um, because I think you're right. Commander secondary is terrible.

I mean, DeVito had production against like bad defenses, garbage time. So like maybe it happens again. I don't know. I mean, DeVito had production against like bad defenses, garbage time. So like maybe it happens again. I don't know. You know, plus touchdowns are fluky. All they got to do is get into the red zone. So, you know, plus 450 is not completely outrageous. It's the number. It's going to be a tough watch, like a really tough watch.

Like they're going to be like, why did I bet this? But I'm telling you, it's not that ridiculous not plus 450 ridiculous that's all no it's a good price yeah i'm kind of with connor i like the play i will be rooting for a four on the side here will not be uh backing it with you but i like where we're at i like the spice um i like i like connor's play i played it myself as well his first play um i think connor's in on this one as well for me my first play here um so we have some confirmation bias uh you know again not a great play on paper that you wouldn't love we're gonna go with jordan love over 36 and a half yards for his longest completion uh this is on fanduel at minus 114 it's 37 and a half everywhere else

still very much in play i think draft king is minus 110 on that it's probably even better to be honest than you know the math with the you know four cents of juice whatever it's you know comparable and available everywhere and well this kind of fits like you know perfect marriage here no quarterback has more 20 plus yard passing attempts uh completions this season jordan love is 46 um matchup against the chargers is a perfect marriage for what is the only thing that really we can see here at this point that jordan love does well he can throw the ball deep down the field he takes shots and kind of has the tools to kind of do it uh chargers giving up a ton of passing yards 315 per game as the most in the league, and they have allowed the third highest rate of explosive passes too.

So teams are taking chunk play chances against them as well. The Packers offensive line are kind of like a sneaky spot as well. They are giving Love time. You kind of need a guy to be able to have time in the pocket, be able to work deep. Love is averaging 2.73 seconds to pressure, which is the third best in the league. Only Mahomes and Tyson Bajent are better in the season than that number for Love. So I like a couple of the

receivers. You want to go with Christian Watson. You want to go with Jaden Reed, who's been playing really good and been working deep as well. I think you can do that, but I think you got to get right. You got to hit that perfect receiver i think this kind of covers the entire group of the bunch so we're going to go with jordan love versus any of the receivers uh he's topped in five and nine games this season connor uh what did i miss yeah i think you did a great job laying it out i also am betting that and i uh you know hugged in the discord so we'll count officially um i also think i think it in the Discord, so we'll count officially. I also think it was the Chargers allowed the most 30-plus yard passings in the league so far this season. So, yeah, I mean, it's kind of like the Keaton Mitchell play last night.

It's not going to always look good. It's going to look ugly for probably plenty of the game, but all it takes is one. I mean, Keaton Mitchell was at negative five rushing yards in the first half and still hit his longest rush over 13.5 last week because he's got the juice and it was a great matchup. And then, you know, same thing here. I mean like Christian Watson is probably going to alligator arms two or

three, and then we'll just catch one 70 yarder and you know, cook there. Watch a couple of long ones go incomplete. I'll be annoying. And you know, just, it just takes, it just takes the one slop. What are your thoughts on August completion here for Love? I absolutely love that so far we've talked about two quarterbacks and their touchdown, Tommy DeVito and Jordan Love.

I think we're on the right track. It's what we do here. You know, we work in the margins of life. I think that's where you could find some edges, and that's where we're at. I like it quite a bit. Now, now we're in the margins of life. I think that's where you could find some edges. And that's where we're at. I like it quite a bit. Now, now we're in the spicy section. So if you're hanging out with us now, again, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite week 11 look is.

We'll get to as many as possible at the end of the show. Connor, you're gonna have to navigate that for me. A new computer. I'm not logged into the chat. So I don't have access to star anything or share anything on screen. So you have to do that part for us later. But we've got some good ones in there already. Continue to fill it up for us folks.

Now we're going to the spicy section. Connor floor is yours. Spice for week 11. Yeah. We're about to get real hot real quick. Am I? I don't think so. I can hear you.

You're not muted, but you're not talking. Can you hear me? I can hear you. Oh, maybe i'm muted all right well i was gonna say i thought that i thought that i could hear it sal can you ryan can't hear me all right well i guess uh boomer noon and still working the new computer uh it's all right um so my spicy section here i'm gonna go hot take of the week that the niners dropped 35

plus points on the Bucs. I think we're looking at a great spot here for this Niners team. Trent Williams back, Debo back, Brock Purdy pretty healthy. Bucs defense since the buys literally been basically rinsed by everyone except for the Titans along 8.4 yards per attempt, including the Titans. And the Niners have been just like routinely scoring 30plus points with Purdy, with Trent Williams, with Debo. Even dating back to last season, they scored 30-plus points in basically every game except for the Cowboys last year. And then this year, they were on the same, basically, pace. And then Trent Williams went down, Debo got hurt, and they weren't quite scoring at the same rate. So I like that.

There's not quite a great way to play it specifically yet because I'm limited on draft games. I think most of you are too. If I can even get down on this, though, I think this is a great way to play it specifically yet. Cause I'm limited on DraftKings. I think most of you are too. If I need to get down on this though, I think this is a fun way to play it. So 35 plus points on DraftKings is plus 320. I think that's okay. But then Noonan brought my attention to a couple other ways.

I think if you throw in, and this is where things are about to get wild. You throw in an uncorrelated parlay. So Debo Samuel, Noonan brought this up under four and a half receptions and over 80 yards that alone is 20 to 1 but you add in the 35 plus points and we're getting that to 70 to 1 um i mean it's getting real fast so i don't know i think that that is a really really fun look and one that i think newton would approve of if you can hear me newton can you hear me or no

i came in and i heard 70 to one. I'm getting dragged in the chat. I'm not quite sure what happened. And rightfully so. I'm not sure what happened here. I heard 70 to one. I'm very excited about a slop. What are your thoughts on Connors play? I like anything uncorrelated now. I've reached the point of life where I only want to do uncorrelated parlays. I'm so hooked. I think I played Watson uncorrelated before the show. I played a bunch of Thielen ones. And then I don't know.

I tried to do a Jordan Love right now, but it didn't really work. They didn't let me do that. But I mean, keep finding ways. The algorithm is broken. They're so heavily taxing you for correlation now that like when you negatively correlate it even if it's like pretty realistic it becomes like 10 to 1 immediately like feeling 7 for 50 50 is like a very realistic line for him and that's 11 to 1 like that shouldn't be 11 to 1 no i've been doing it with touchdowns you take the under in the game,

like boost it up, you know, whatever. And then just take one guy to get to one guy, get one. That parlay is like massive. And you're only talking about 21 points. There's like 30 points on accounted for.

If you were talking about a, you know, a total in the fifties. So it's like, how, like how, like, cause like they,

it's almost like they think guys are not going to score touchdowns just because the game's going to go under. Trust me. Guys still score touchdowns in games where it goes under. That happens. Give me a recap so I don't step on your toes because I know that we're talking uncorrelated. Yeah, Shark Burner sports bets.

Okay, so the recap of the 70-1 was Niners 35-plus points. That was like my hot take was that they're going to score a lot but then I did the one that you put in our chat earlier with Debo uncorrelated and it brought it from 20 to 1 to 70 to 1 just by saying the Niners score 35 Debo under four and a half and over 80 receiving yards like you know Debo cooks and the Niners score a lot and you're getting 80 to 1 70 to 1 i mean that's outrageous so um all right love it yeah love it thanks shark burners uh nobody's on for the show we appreciate it very much uh yeah this is this is uh until they figure it out i don't does it seem to be a draft king specific thing

connor you know i i played around on okay okay panel jaffa keys because i tried to do one on caesars and it didn't happen uh quite the way that it's happening on uh on draft king so okay uh slop what do you got for us bud uh first off what's up sharp burners i see you uh that guy's awesome by the way so mine it's not really that spot like wait till you hear you hear it. Like, Trey McBride, I took him 75-plus at Caesars earlier, but plus 240. But, like, why not just go 100-plus at plus 650? Like, he just did it last week. Like, all right.

And it was the first time a Cardinals tight end has gone 100-plus in a game since the Bush administration. And, like, I'm talking the first Bush, not the second. Before Conor was born. Yeah, it was 1989. So it's been a while. They haven't really got a lot of production. But it looks like Kyler Murray just looks for him.

That's the only guy he wants to throw to. And this dude just caught 10 balls a couple weeks ago. So he is firmly in the Cardinals' plans. That's what they want to do is get him the ball. The thing is, Murray can get him the ball. And against the Texans, they're going to score on them. So we're going to be seeing some throwing. The Cardinals aren't just going to be able to sit on the ball.

They're going to have to move it through the air. 100 yards, not that much, especially at plus 650 for a guy that heavily involved. I'm in. It's one of the best matchups against tight end position as well. The Texans have been giving it up to tight ends all season long. More of the same. I know we had a question in our Discord. It's climbing up there at 54 and a half or whatever. We were hitting whatever, 30s and change not too long ago.

I think FanDuel's got the best number for over four and a half receptions. You could probably take an alt five and a half. I think that's a great look too. So yeah, I like it, Connor. What are your thoughts on McBride? So interestingly enough, I mean, I'm just going to do this now. Yeah, I mean, it was my official play. So it's like, you know, it was over 55 receiving yards was my, it was my official play there. Saved all the overs for the show. You know, I, I pumped in three or four unders into

the discord last night during the game for the week and I'll probably have a couple more, but I like to have fun on air. So we're going to go with another over, but yeah, it's literally, okay. So they're allowing the most receptions per game to the tight end position. You guys already mentioned. And they, the best tight ends they played against was like Kyle pits, Kate Otten,

John, who Smith and Evan Ingram, who had 87, 70, 67, 67 receiving yards. Like these guys are, I mean,

sorry for anyone who loves Kyle pits still, but these guys are kind of bums. And like, you know, they're letting a lot of receiving yards to these guys. Now they get trade McBride. Who's cooking. He saw nine first three targets last week.

I mean, that is just like insane. So you want something else? Let's hear it. Let's keep firing. I want all the bonus action. Plus touchdowns at Caesars plus 1600. Oh yeah. Kate Otten scored twice on him.

I mean, no disrespect to to him but like that's like he's a bum this is we're talking mcbride here i mean he shares the same last name as danny mcbride just saying great actor there's that too yeah i love it um i don't know just uh it's one of those things where like i know that we were buying high and i fully understand that i just you know like given the matchup given what we just saw everything and like mcbride's usage i mean even like basically since he's taken over for it's just been like all immaculate i like it i like it quite a bit official play now from connor uh yeah i think uh looking at alternatives like i said you going it quite a bit. Official play now from Connor. Yeah, I think looking at alternatives, like I said,

going up a little bit, going up a rung on the ladder to get some plus money on the receptions, banking on him kind of continuing to cash into the 60, 70 yards on the receiving line I think is a great look. All right, I'm going to add to the uncorrelated parlay party, which I think makes a ton of sense based on what we were talking about earlier. I mean, my first play was Jordan Love, and I mentioned two receivers, Jaden Reed and Christian Watson.

I mean, this is like a Christian Watson special. These things were built for this kid, just out there catching 30, 40-yard passes. But like Connor said, alligator arming, some other stuff, just like things bouncing at his feet. It's not great. So you can go Watson 60-plus receiving yards under 2.5 receptions, which is his line prop. That's 32-1.

You can do the same exact thing for Jaden Reed, who is averaging like 18 yards per reception lately. Last couple games he's taken deep shots. Same thing for Jaden Reed, 60-plus receiving yards under two and a half catches at 40 to one maybe my favorite though is uh 60 to one uh terry mclaurin uh so look like they're chucking the ball right we know washington's chucking the ball but they're chucking the ball like six guys like you know we got like dotson's in the mix byron pringle's in the mix um who else james and crowder like they're throwing the ball to logan thomas a ton the giants ryan robinson their number one receiver by robinson six for 119 last week or whatever so like yeah the giants have been a hot mess but like tommy devito didn't give up seven touchdowns last week in like 600 yards.

Like the defense has been bad too. They might be without their top three. And I say top three, you know, with like a grain of salt here, like the top three corners for the Giants might be out in this game. Some injuries, cluster injuries, concussions, all sorts of stuff here. McLaurin under four and a half receptions, over a hundred receiving yards, 60 to one. It's again, like it's, it's, it's two,

it's 201 if you go 125 receiving yards, that might be a little too spicy for me. Cause you know, you're looking at like multiple 50 yarders or something like that at that point, or like a, you know, an 80 yard or something crazy, but like this is kind of McLaurin, you know you're looking at like multiple 50 yarders or something like that at that point or like a you know an 80 yarder or something crazy but like this is kind of mcclurin you know he's not been like a high volume pass catcher and this offense is starting to spread it out a little bit more they might be in a spot where you know they're in some really positive game script they might for them lean maybe a little bit more run heavy in the second half

either and you know the normal so other outs other outs for McLaurin falling short here, which needs some big plays early in the game. So, yeah, McLaurin under four and a half. Receptions over 100 yards, 60 to one is my favorite spicy play. So I love the Debo one too. Those are kind of my favorites. That's nice. So that's a good spice action, guys.

I like what we're doing here. Yeah, that was pretty fun. Connor, your last official play what we're doing here. Yeah, that was pretty fun. Connor, your last official play there was McBride. Did you have anything else before moving to slop? No. What were you looking at? See, I have another play that just popped on the board that I'm trying to.

So just go you, slop, and then come back to me, and I think I might have another official play that I'll be ready to push out here because something just popped. Okay. Slop, what do you got? What else is on the board for you here? All right, so Connor's going to love this. Big Bears guy. But what about Justin Fields?

Two-plus touchdowns, plus 200 at Caesars. Caesars is fun. It's a fun book because they have over one and a half at plus 172 but they have two plus at plus 200 I would say go with the plus 200 there just I mean math but uh the Lions they're I don't think the Bears gonna run on them I think the Lions are gonna score points all over them I don't see how any other way the Bears score which you know to be honest with you they haven't been that bad even with T-Bag. I know Justin Fields is coming back like he hadn't played in a while,

but still. And I think two of the last three games he's played, he went four-plus touchdowns in each of them, in two of them. And the one game he got hurt, so there was that too. He was probably about to throw for that game, but, you know, he got hurt before. But here's the thing, plus 200 or three- plus at plus 900, all those are in play. The Lions give it up.

I mean, go look to see who's done this against them. Bryce Young threw three touchdowns against them. Lamar Jackson, three plus. Justin Herbert, four plus. I mean, they're giving up touchdown passes. Why not Justin Fields? Why not Sunday? Why not us? Why not us? I was waiting. was waiting i was like come on throw the book in on i set it up dunk it why not us why not justin fields because

justin fields sucks no i'm just kidding uh and i think i think that this is i think the way you're saying is great also i think that um they keep it close against the lions like closer than expected i thought clark got a 10 plus 10. We're looking at like plus seven and a half plus eight at this point. I don't know. I think it could be interesting here if the offense plays remotely well. We'll see. I like it.

I like it. Connor, you ready? I'm going to go. Yeah, you go. You go. Okay. I got a few things. We'll talk some tackles and I make sure that these plays.

Oh, crap. No, there's one of these places on the board. And I am not ready to give it up because I want to write it up. We got some tackles have dropped here in the last 20 minutes. So that is very interesting. We'll had some. I've had about three i think i have another one ready to go and now a couple more ready to go for subscribers here in the discord

shortly after the show some other ones we've already steamed out to good measure they've some other games have posted but they haven't put all the players out that i want uh now they are starting to do so so we will have to circle back and grab some of these tackle lines. But I will go here and talk about some sacks. It's a good place for some chalk sacks this week. And then there's a sack that's a little maybe off the board that is my favorite play. Micah Parsons against Bryce Young. Bryce Young has been sacked 29 times a season. It's the fifth most in the league. Again, Micah Parsons kind of laid an egg last week in a spot against DeVito and the Giants.

We thought it would have been a layup for him to get on the board, post some sack numbers. I think he bounces back here against Parsons. This is minus 150 on DraftKings, so it's a little chalky. You're going to lay some juice. Same thing, TJ Watt, you're going to lay some juice. Minus 175 is a lot. But he gets Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Again, I'm not advocating for it, know you want to add it to you know something else that you like that's a little juicy and bring the juice down a little bit knock yourself out tj watt's gonna uh get a sack here against dtr uh same game you want to just go same game parlay and bring it back miles garrett over 0.75 sacks 45 of the sacks against the Steelers this season have come off the edge. It's the third highest rate in the league. Kenny Pickett, not afraid to take a sack, hold the ball. Myles Garrett probably eats here. I want to find the Josh Allen line, the Jacksonville edge rusher.

I don't think it hadn't been posted prior to starting the show. Maybe it just came out. Let's see if we do not have a josh allen line uh great spot though will levis has been under pressure league high 48.8 of his drop backs the past two weeks this is what i thought was going to happen here now we have cluster injuries on the league's worst offensive line too you have andre dillard in the concussion protocol um petite frere is out john ir They are bad, bad up front. Good bounce back spot for Jacksonville.

Josh Allen gets home. Don't know what the price is. Not currently posted, but I'm going to be looking for that one. But my favorite one is a little sneaky. This is a big free agent, big name, playing on a big defense, but he's not the name you're going to go to when you think about San Francisco 49er sacks. I want Javon Hargrave over a quarter sack plus 145 on DraftKings. This is a fantastic look. I like this one quite a bit. Again,

you're thinking, hey, look, we got Bosa. Now we have Chase Young here. Yeah, sure. They're probably fine too, but you're going to pay a little bit for them and you're going to need them to get a full sack because they're like lined at.75 sacks. Hargrave is ninth in the league in win rate of all defensive players on true pass sets. So like how often are you beating your guy and like getting pressure on the quarterback in a passing down?

Hargrave is ninth overall. So all the elite edge rushers, Hargrave coming from the middle of the line is ninth. It's pretty awesome. And a great matchup against Baker and the Bucs. 43.8% of the sacks against Tampa Bay have come from the interior of the defensive line. By far the highest rate in the league.

Teams that are in the top five of this are like 20%. So the Bucs are getting had through the middle of the defensive line through their offensive line. So Hargrave over a quarter sack plus one 45 on draft Kings. Can't make that official for our subscribers though. I did give it to him a little bit before just because you know, not every book has these and they're pretty limited and stuff like that. But yeah, we're having some fun doing sacks there too.

Hargrave is a great look, bad bad price uh liking this at plus money so that's uh defensive stuff yeah i guess i'm excited to get some of these uh hoping none of the other uh tackle grinders are out here because we got some stuff to pick off here as soon as the show ends so connor gets yeah had some time have some thoughts on your last play here. Yep. Yeah. We're going with, um, you know, let me send this out here. All right. So a little bonus play for you guys here. I'm going with, uh, Jalen Warren over nine and a half carries at plus money. Um, I think this is really, really strong here. We're looking at, um, Jalen Warren last week. They said that he got the start the coaches came up to him told him congratulated him he out snapped j uh naji harris he didn't out touch him but i mean

again the game kind of got out of hand they both saw 15 plus carries now i think in this spot here like the browns defense is obviously really good but you don't really care about that in this spot like you don't need efficiency you just need volume and so the browns starting d I don't think that they're going to be able to move the ball well on their side. So probably gonna see plenty of running and then plenty of running on, on, uh, Pittsburgh. So I think both Najee and Jalen Warren probably end up with 10 plus carries in this spot. So getting 10, like nine and a half carries a plus money Caesars, DK, MGM, ESPN bet, um, all of that and FanDuel is 10 and a half, some plus money there as well um yeah i like i like that one as well any any interest there noon i feel like that's just like really low considering

what we just saw yeah i was on him last week i played his combined uh rushing and receiving yards and he like went over at half he just got more juice um yeah i like i like that quite a bit it's already already on the move but yeah I think he's definitely earned a continued, like at least close to a 50-50 share, 55-45 or whatever. And I like his longest too, to be honest. The Browns have given up some splash plays on the ground too. So even though their defense is elite, I think that kind of keeps the number down too.

So that was something that I had on my list, Warren's longest. But, yeah, I like how you went with this. Love it. Yeah. Something I've been waiting on, uh, for a little bit and, uh, it opened a fan duel and I just thought it was like, I don't know. I just kind of thought we'd see like 11, 12 for both him and Najee, maybe, maybe 11 and a half for him, something like that at even money. Um, getting nine and a half is, uh, you know, great. Yeah. Ryan Jeffrey, he's got more juice. Yeah. So this is where it's at you know you gotta follow the juice baby let's go there's another rushing uh attempts line that's out here that uh something i played last couple weeks and i want to go back to the well i'm not going to give it out right now because i think i might play it it's a little bit harder to stomach this week um uh yeah we'll see he was

featured on the show last week so if you're a weekly guest with us uh he was uh he was featured last week that's just a low number yeah i like i like uh attempt lines so it's easier to project volume right you know it's like totally confines are yeah it's like wait because you have no idea like i mean sometimes they run into a great matchup and then like the bangles last week the entire first half they loaded the fuck out of the box like it was like literally the entire like team was playing the run so lamar just had a field day in the first half and then finally took him like wearing him down in the second half a little bit so that anyone find any room so you never know how coaches will like you know react even if the matchup seems good on paper all right uh slop what else you got anything else on

the uh short list anything you're waiting on anything else you want to share um not really trying to think there was one other one that's just it's ridiculous i think it's uh aj brown i'm trying to figure out a way to play him. I'm kind of thinking about two-plus touchdowns, but I want to see more books with that first. Like what are we looking at price-wise? The best I saw was plus 600, which not great. I kind of want a little bit more. I think that game is going to get wild.

I really do rishi rice is another uh option for our uh our uncorrelated parlays i think this is big playability the eagles actually giving up the highest rate of explosive pass plays you know you could probably take a under four and a half uh receptions and have rice go uh go bonkers could be an interesting look too. So, yeah, interesting to see what some of the, like, Brian Robinson stuff looks like in this matchup with Antonio Gibson out in terms of, you know, carries or whatever. They love feeding him the ball, and now no Gibson. That makes things a little bit more interesting.

So, yeah, a few other things on the list. But, yeah, let me get to some of these, some of these tackles, but yeah, I think we're, we're good. Connor, you want to handle some of these, some of these questions for us? Yeah. Why not? We'll, we'll just start dishing them out here. All right. So we got at the top here, Jeff Stenberg, slop. So why do you think Chick-fil-A is spicy? Slop, any comment there? Jeff is probably one of the funniest dudes there is this guy he loves

the golden banana ask him about the golden banana tell him jeff all right jeff i know route one route one golden banana i'm familiar with the golden yeah i think he's goes to the one yeah yeah i believe there's one there might be two i'd say no there's only one banana my bad go to the hilltop steakhouse first get some i don't know what's going on is this like an old thing or what like what's what's going on here it's a mass it's a mass thing yeah okay it's something jeff loves it put it that way i love that i love that you think it's just an old thing. Yeah. Jeff loves kickers and three balls and possibly eight balls. Probably eight balls.

Yeah, so who knows? All of the above. Hey, why not? Man, I had a tough beat on kicker prop last week. I gave out that Brandon Aubrey and the Cowboys over seven and a half points. Cowboys just go out and get seven touchdowns. Can't kick seven extra points we can't we can't that's two and a half goals per game just give me one field goal i was not my week last week first uh first bad the first losing week of the season uh in real life and

officially for subscribers so getting back on it this week uh i knew that was happening we were we were in the right, in the right vicinity, but yeah, they decided to, to cash in. So what else we got Connor? I'm asking for a recap here from shark burners who missed some of the, some of the show here. So I released Jalen Warren over nine and a half carries Trey McBride over 55 and a half receiving yards and Adam Thielen over five and a half receptions. Noonan released Jordan love longest completion over 36 and a half receiving yards. Did you have it?

That was it, right? Yeah. I gave out the Hargrave. Yeah. Hargrave over a quarter sack. Then we got spicy with the Terry McLaurin under four and a half receptions over a hundred receiving yards,

60 to one banger. Love it. Love it. And then slop, uh, was in on the Trey McBride alts, uh, as well. So it's, uh, you know, it's going to be a McBride party this weekend. Um, all right. So that's, yeah, it's, it's going to be beautiful when he gets a hundred, 120 receiving yards, uh, in the first half slop, I'll send you a DM on Twitter. Um, let's see here, Jeff with kicker pop. Well, it's not a first half line. That'll send you a DM on Twitter. Let's see here. Jeff with Kicker Pop. Well, it's not a first half line.

I thought it was a first half line. I thought it was. That's a full game line? Yeah. Crazy. That's how it happens to me. I'm like a test game business. Oof.

Oh, man. Chris Boswell over one and a half field goals made, plus 105. Kickers are people too. Yeah, they're kind of people. I don't know. I mean, they're kind of people i don't know i mean they're like somewhat real thoughts i'd take it hey look if someone's doing some uh kicker work i respect it you know we like living in the in the you know in the margins here i'm a little

little burnt after last week i just shared but uh you know um i uh he's still in the steelers yep okay i'm just gonna jump right back on it noon yeah the way you can look at it is that kickers owe you money the whole kickers all of them yeah okay that way you don't have to like stick to one is i just find just one of them there's a lot of them you get one love it kickers owe me money oh this is great um we got shark burner saying is this the tackle guy from thunderdome yeah i think that would be you uh that would be the tackle guy um and then 70 to 1 nobody's on for the show we mentioned that already uh shout out shark burners uh appreciate you hanging out here and then jeff's getting wild with the kicker props you parlay boswell and dustwell and Dustin Hopkins to both make one and a half field goals plus 270.

Kicker prop parlays. I mean, untapped market slop? Not that. I mean, if there's a market to bet, Jeff will find it. He will. And it'll be a ridiculous market too. And he'll find it and be like good at it.

It's weird. But I like it. Money's green, you know? If you think you have's weird but i like it money's green you know if you think you have an edge that's uh you do you know the dog likes it yeah can we find a way to uncorrelate the kicker uh yeah that's that's next that's the first thing you need to do that's awesome uncorrelated kicker props under longest kick and then over field goals what do you think i feel like that's not a you know like missed extra points um like over extra points made and like under and like also over missed extra points like some sort of uh something like that yeah jenny or four four does a great job uh give her a hard time but yeah she does do some some kicker work for us uh follow her at jenny

ekins nfl on twitter uh yeah she does a kicking streaming article for us because people uh still play in fantasy leagues with kickers i've been told people still play traditional fantasy as well which is also a thing so that's cool it's good to know i think we're going to make more on our uh you know christian watson and adam Adam Thielen on correlated parlays than all of my fantasy league entries combined this year. Uh, unfortunately, um,

yeah, just when you consider the time value, it's tough. I just got to really want to beat the shit out of the other guys in the league. If I, for me to really care at this point. Um,

that's yeah, it's tough. Uh, Darren Vaughn, anyone with a correct score line and then shark burners responds. Correct score. That shit is for some scammers and Nigerian princesses. Yeah. It's tough. Darren Vaughn, anyone with a correct score line? And then Shark Burners responds, correct score. That shit is for some scammers and Nigerian princesses. Yeah, it's like the Twitter bots are all responding,

like fixed lines and everything. I don't have any of those. I do bet them on the Super Bowl, like one or two for fun because I do a big preview, but I do not bet those in the regular season. I got one. So Lucy Birch was in the thunderdome this morning she dropped the dolphins raiders dolphins 31 raiders 14 it's like plus 15 000 i don't know how we don't play that i i don't just because like what because what happens when it does hit

and you're like oh well shit, I didn't know, Lucy. I'm sorry. What was the rationale? I don't know. I never thought. I was just listening. I was like, we just got to correct scores. I was thinking, wait, I was trying to add up my picks.

I was like, there's no way I can win if this hits because there's nothing I can do at this point. And that's how you know it's going to win. So, yeah, 31-14. You heard it here first. Dolphins over the Raiders. Lucy, another fellow Masshole. Go ahead.

She's also on the Celtics tonight too. So, again, confirmation bias on Lucy having good takes. I will have to find that and embed it. But, yeah, those are not something that we spend a lot of time on. But, yeah, the payout is insane. Insane. Well, I mean, you just called the correct score of a football game. You know what I mean?

Like, I could see maybe doing soccer. Because, I mean, like, what does it mean? Who won? But, like, a football game, that's hero's work. Yeah, a lot going on there. That that's tough i remember i was one point off for the super bowl with the rams bangle super bowl it was like 24 23 or something like that i think i had it maybe the other way um so you know what could have been um here's uh jeff stenberg's uh comment on justin fields remember the surfer girl had an arm bitten off by a shark. I'd rather her throwing passes than Justin Fields.

She can throw two. A little harsh, but, you know, she might have better processing ability than Justin Fields. I mean, to be fair. It's just two. Bryce Young threw three. That's fair. That's honestly fair. But I think that's pretty much it if you guys have

any other questions feel free to fire away here otherwise we'll um noon i don't think i don't know if you have anything anyone else the chat definitely took a good rip into you with uh yeah for sure lord noonan uh absolutely brutal so is this brian andrews is that serious like you can bet on the special olympics no uh you can bet on anything slop i feel like yeah i mean for literally anything i've bet little league before uh just have you ever used uh like you ever use an offshore or a price per head shop right now yeah i'm looking at like el salvadorian soccer um you know bandy and finland and sweden international curling finland floorball like i'm just like scrolling on the side of things that they're posting right now yeah but see i would i would i would think you

could bet on that but if someone were to be if that was a trivia question can you bet on the special olympics i would be stumped i i because you don't want to be like, yeah, definitely. You don't do it all the time, but at the same time, you're like, can you? Yeah, who knows? Maybe not. They deserve our money. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I see Little League. The Little League's

not that weird. The Little League World Series, that's on ESPN. We're watching it. If you're at a Little League game, I'll tell you what, it's one way to make a Little League game fun if you don't have a kid there. Bet on it. So just do some in-game stuff. Bet that kid strikes out next, that bad, stuff like that.

Have a great time. Good little Saturday. I love it. Oh, man, amazing. I thought at first you were just taking side action at the local park. No, like, what you're doing on that is looking at if you're at the – if somehow you're at a little game where you don't have a kid there, trust me, it's slow going.

Like I said, you get the in-game stuff going, next thing you know it was a good time. You're kind of sad the game ended. I like it. Yeah, I don't have anything else. Again, I have some tackles i'm gonna fire here uh shortly waiting for some more stuff but yeah some things we were looking for have uh kind of dropped here i'm gonna get those out to subscribers um formulate the thoughts behind it and stuff like

that but yeah that's uh that wraps up for this week we're just so excited to get the spice out we were so fast we couldn't We couldn't help ourselves this week. It's all right. I know. 45-minute show, man. This is wild. Same amount of plays went out, so that's good. We're just excited to get them out.

More. I got bonus plays. It's true. Yeah, there was a bonus play in there. There was actually two with the Trey McBride double touchdown. Yeah. Like that. So good stuff as always.

What do people need to know about odds jam uh the best price pricing uh app literally in the world right now like you just hit the button and all the discrepancies just pop up it's amazing you can do it for free using promo code slop go there right now check it out the positive ev tool is literally awesome i mean you can find some slop content over on youtube as well uh find slop in the thunderdome all those different things um slops out there just killing it find them on twitter at slop rules you'll find all of it there for sure uh connor enjoy yourself this weekend um is it it's both tonight you have a birthday party and i think yeah yeah going to my my buddy's birthday party for an hour or two then meeting my wife at her friend's engagement party

at another bar um and then i don't know we'll see you know see where the night takes us maybe out to golden banana or whatever you know the place you're talking about you'll see Jeff there. Yeah. Hey, Route 1, you know, you're heading into, you know, a little north of Boston or, you know, heading south, you know, from New Hampshire or Maine on your way in. You just, you know, hit up the Route 1 at Golden Banana and, you know, just ease into the weekends, you know. Great place. I didn't know what it was my first move here.

I had no idea. Yeah. You have to think about it too, too hard. Jeff will save you a sleep. Don't forget to check out the betting subscription, guys. 444.com slash plans. Promo code BATS50. Gets you 50% off.

Great, great, great deal. Take advantage. Come bet with us. You know, our boy Kevin O'Brien is firing off NBA winners as well. So, you know, betting NFL for another three plus months. NBA through, you know, late February as well. Again, gets you access to all the tools, rankings, articles, projections, all the stuff we got it for.

Check it out. Take advantage of it. We'll be back here on Wednesday to talk. Well, no, Tuesday, because it's Thanksgiving. We'll be talking Tuesday. Be on the lookout for our game preview show. But, yeah, we'll be back to do props again here on Friday. So, for SloppyCon and Ryan, we'll see you all next time.

Thanks, everybody. Yeah! you