Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

Get ready for Week 12 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan back with my friends Connor Allen and John Hyslop to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football and that is through player props. Week 12, excited to continue to be here every week, 3 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. If you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite look is for Week 12. Contribute to the million-dollar parlay that's coming on in the end.

Really excited for all the stuff that we have coming. I'm excited. Today's going to be a good day. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. What's up, my friend? It was a great week seven and two unofficial plays um you know racking up them units and but it was almost a really great week uh nico collins 100 plus yards was there for 12k we talked about literally every single play that was in that parlay what we talked about on the show uh in some form or another all we needed was a nico 100 plus to get home and 77 yarder pulled away first play of the game based on whatever legal formation or legal shift they are no man downfield that's what it was and then a 26 yard completion taken away uh

later in the game because it hit the ground which i think was still questionable so but the good news is is that we were close and we still won money on other things, plenty of money on other things. So, I mean, it feels like a good week to get rich boys. It's felt real good. We ate some coordinated magic earlier.

You know, it's really, it's a unique story of people that aren't in the bubble of this. Don't understand like how fun that was to kind of coordinate, pull off. Like we were sweating. I was really surprised to see books hanging, uh,

Kareem hunt, rushing totals and attempts and all that stuff, considering we didn't know if Pacheco was playing or not. So Connor found the Chiefs press conference on YouTube. I wrote up Hunt over 17 and a half rushing attempts. Connor wrote up under. We both had him ready to fire.

And then we get the news that he's out we've fired and then just you know instantly obviously the number explodes but it was just uh those live for that's on a friday it's great it just gets juices flowing slap how we doing baby ah just living the dream man just gets better every day it's unbelievable i love that love that phrase little pawnee represented there on the shirt today too? Oh, yep. Yep. Okay.

It's my – it's actually a bowling shirt normally, but I didn't wear it yesterday. So I've been going no big deal at bowling. So this shirt kind of goes to the wayside. It happens. It's still a good shirt though. Good shirt. Great show.

Underrated show. Oh, very. Tom Swanson, baby. Absolutely. Cannot beat Parks and and rec all right i want to remind folks uh you know lots of cheap ways for you to get access to all the things you're doing you want to get in slops dub club because this is printed on the nba side i mean just see these tickets and these bangers all the time i know it's close to breaking some big stuff over

there really great way to get access to slops's Dub Club and us at 444 for a month. Download Rebet, our friends over at Rebet's Sweepstakes app. It's sports betting. Prop builder. It's got everything. Lots of different ways to get down. Promo code HIGHSLOP gets you both of those things for just 10 bucks on Rebet. That's it, guys. I mean, it's Black Friday next week. It's almost the holiday season. Treat yourself. Shout out to parks and rec spend time bucks on rebet and get yourself access to the dub club to four for everything that we do at four for four on top of his dub club for ten dollars to rebound if you have questions let us know there's more information in the show notes but that is the best deal you're going to find

you can just get our our deal right now four for four it's discounted on the site super cheap but then you don't get slobs dub club you want to get in that too so this is even even cheaper and you get more picks so check that out if you have any questions i know slobs putting out winners on rebet as well so you get to use the ten dollars to get free access and use that money to then make more money right like it makes sense it's crazy deal i won't lie to you i don't know that i've ever lost an sgp on rebet like maybe i did i don't I don't know that I've ever lost an SGP on re-bet like maybe I did I don't I don't remember it like just the one last night that I had on four for four I mean like the only bad part is they cash so early that you you I mean if you

don't have anything else in that game it's just like all right well that was fun but now what you know what I mean I'm gonna watch this this game between two teams I don't really care about but uh that's the only downside. They cast too early. Yeah, that makes sense. That's me. We didn't have that with Jameis last night. They did not cast too early. We had to sweat out very, very end of that Jameis bet.

But what a fantastic way to start. That's just fun. Oh, I threw Nick Chubb in there just for the chat twice. He carries in yards for him last night just for the haters. Good vibes already in the week. You can tell. We're already catching bats. Lots of good things happening here.

So, all right. Again, two episodes of Move the Line. Subscribe. All those things, they help us out a ton. Check out Rebatt. The best deal, best access. Connor, floor is yours, my friend. Get us started.

First play here. I think we got an over and an under coming from you today so a little mix mixing up but um i don't know where to start with let me i think i'm in on one of them yeah we're starting with the over the one that uh you know we are in together here and it's going to be a little ugly a little bit different than my normal ones we're with kendrick born over 24 and a half receiving yards uh was put in the doghouse two weeks ago we bet is under, and we correctly predicted that, but he played zero snaps. So it didn't count. They were giving the rookies a shot, but the coaching staff taught him like a lesson. I think put him back on the

field in week 11, led the team in receiving yards, 70 yards. Since then the Patriots OC has basically been like, he had a rough few games. We kind of wanted to, you know, sit him down for a little bit, but now he's a guy we're going to be having being a bell cow for us out there as a receiver. So a 16% first three target share, 22% targets per route run. Now they get Miami, Miami missing multiple defensive pieces. Miami pushes the pace teams against Miami. We're only averaging 26 past times per game without Tua now up to 41 per game with Tua plays. So like, I think may is probably gonna be in that 35 to 37 range. And if Kendrick Bourne is playing, I don't even know, 60, 70% of the snaps, even, uh, we're in a really good spot to get over 23, 24 yards here. I also played an alt, I played 40 plus yards, plus two 40 DK. This is one of those things where it seems like the dog house, you know,

experience week 11 is weighing this line down like by 10 plus yards. And I think that if we just look at this week specifically, like, I think that there's a massive chance here for him to explode and like or at least just put up like 30 yards like 30 yards is nothing i mean this is like very little with a guy drake may been playing really well gets better every week uh you know not afraid to admit it he looks good out there i had to dust this stuff off you know bring out some of the pats gear um you know where that have a little bit more pride wearing that stuff but yeah talent maximizer drake may uh like connor said i mean on it too i think we get back to that like 70 75 percent route participation uh no uh kendall fuller out for uh the dolphins again so we got more storm duck snaps defensively for the dolphins a real human being uh just wild but yeah i'm i'm there for sure uh slop any uh kenny born thoughts

here i'm in i can do that feels right oh that's all i need uh all right buddy let's keep it moving keep the train rolling slop what do you got all right i'm gonna go with one of my favorite guys uh touchdown tommy devito it's gonna be plus 310 for 225 plus passing yards i thought this was the first half line when i first saw it was dude this is the tampa bay buccaneers all right only three teams in the entire nfl have given up more passing yards as quarterbacks than they have. All those teams have played more games, too, so it's not even fair. They're not even fighting a fair fight there.

They're going to go into New York. New York, they just got rid of Danny Dimes. It's all over. The stink has been off of them, and now it's touchdown Tommy time. Last year, he came in and got kind of smoked a little bit here and there,

but there was one game where he played a bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense. They were the Washington Commanders. He just went all over them. It was disgusting. So, that's going to happen this time. He went all over them?

He went all over them? Something else. I was like yeah there could be some kids watching there's definitely kids in my house listening so it's fair i want to i want a different route real quick called an audible mental audible but uh yeah 225 plus 310 i mean if you're a real man you probably want to go 250 plus 630 uh and i mean if you're just uh just an extraordinary human being you could do 275 plus 1100. It's all deadly, all in play.

I think it's going to get loose, man. I don't know. I think the Giants guys like them. I really do. I think they like that guy. So like, it's not going to be a,

Oh, they got rid of Danny dimes. They did them wrong. Yeah. They might've done that, but we also got touchdown Tommy. So they're going to be fine. Patrick calling out the rushing upside in the chat as well.

This week's banger, Tommy DeVito, over 21.5 rushing yards. No problem with that. It's fun. Probably a lot of dropbacks there. Probably a lot of sack bets to be had too. Hopefully they're not shy. Hopefully they're not shy posting some of these Buccaneers. We're going to spray the board for sure.

Connor, any Tommy Cutlets thoughts? Yeah, I had a feeling that Slop was going to be a Tommy Cutlets guy. And I talked about it actually on the Wednesday show, but I'm starting him in like a must-win game in a $2,000 fantasy league. I told my friends who we drafted the team together, we're going to an Italian dinner tonight, and we are going to be betting on Tommy DeVito in every which way possible like plus and two touchdowns we just need the vibes to be immaculate Malik neighbors didn't

practice today but he said he's gonna play so don't even care about it you know and he's playing yeah Tommy Cutlets I'm gonna just eat a massive chicken cutlet tonight uh in honor of Tommy DeVito if he carries our team to the playoff so I'm pretty hyped. Hey, guess what, Connor? You know what you could do too? What? Three plus passing touchdowns plus 1,200. He had three against the Commanders last year. I mean, that happened.

I'm just saying that happened. That was an NFL team. Same type of pass defense, though. Just the Swiss cheese. There's holes all over the place. He's got neighbors now. Yep. Yeah.

And Sterling Shepard was telling those Buccaneers to better watch out for Tommy. Like, don't just take him lightly because he's nasty. Yeah. I mean, I think he might have like six sacks probably taken against him, but that's also actually help his yards because it's going to be like,

it helps the yards. It'll have like a 10 yard sack and then complete a 18 yard pass and then take another sack. And then more yards. Like it's like, you know, sack and then complete an 18-yard pass and then take another sack and then more yards. It's like the give and take that actually helps. 130 yards on one drive. Yep, exactly. How did that happen? It happened to James last night, I think.

Literally, it was like. Push it back. Yeah, 10-yard sack. Penalty. Gets the first down anyways. Hits our over on yards. By the way, James Winston, just absolutely warrior. I love James Winston.

Oh, my gosh. He might be one of my favorite players in the way, James Winston, just absolutely warrior. I love James Winston. Oh my gosh. He might be one of my favorite players in the NFL. He's done a complete one 80. Yes. The crab. I mean, think about him in college. They hated that guy.

Oh yeah. Yeah. Well, because it's, it's easy to hate the guy who's supposed to be like the next big thing. He was like a top two, three prospect. Like he was crushing,

obviously gotten like the legal issues with stealing crab legs. I don't know if everyone just knew that he was such a goofball that he is. Obviously, in the NFL, his time as a backup has been pretty funny. He makes the game fun again. He chucks the ball downfield. The whole LASIK thing was hilarious too where he couldn't even see for half of his career. All right. Years ago, I was like, dude, I don't think he can see like that's his problem like i think if he could see it would be like i don't think

he can see i think he sees like colors and then for them to come out and say it because he would look at score you could see pictures of them and like on the day just like squinting and you're like dude that guy can't see like that's it. He can't see. Sure enough, he couldn't see. Who knew? Who knew? A little too late probably for him, but I'm excited. I think it's fun. He's got some fun receivers around him.

I'll keep playing overs on him that are too low. I mean, this game, if the snow didn't happen, I think he could have cooked way more even, to be honest, or if the Steelers scored ever. They didn't get anything together until the last eight eight minutes of the game so yeah scoring didn't really start until that the snow came down we're talking about that in the chat like these sometimes these weather games end up like you're better off knowing where you're going there's an advantage to being on the offensive side I shared a clip too like remember like Brady torched the the Titans back in the day in a snow game for like six tutties he like five touchdowns in the second quarter.

Like, you know, it's not all bad news necessarily. It's really like, you know, Connor, you dug into it before even the recapping. It's like wind related. We want, you know, wind can be, you know, massive impact more than snow. Just not really something to get in the way. So opportunities to be had. All right. Man, I just wanted to keep it going we're

talking about uh just talent maximizers we're talking about really good things happening let's just keep it going here my first bet drake may longest rush over 12 and a half yards uh draft kings mgm bat rivers our guy monotone Monotone Stew in on this with me here too, which is just a great bet. Connor did some little recognizance for me here, found some stuff, found some information, and feeling pretty good about it. He's just continued to do this every week. He's running three to seven rushing attempts, all scrambles,

has one of the at least 15 yards in each game so far so 12 and a half seems pretty easy uh and there's more talk here with the coaching staff saying we're comfortable putting a little bit more on his plates uh we're open to the ideas of uh the quote was absolutely there will be more game plan centric runs at a certain time so it's coming um but again he's getting there right now without any of that so you can just play straight up rushing yards if that's your thing 25 and a half is out there i think 26 and a half give me the one long run here at 12 and a half again he's been doing this every game uh he just takes one you know even if we have volume returns he can still break here break pocket so i absolutely love. Continue to go back to the well on talent maximizer, Drake May here.

Slop, what do you think? I love it. I love it. I'm a Drake May guy. I don't know if anyone knows this, but I'm Drake May guy now. So I'm on board. I hope he's good because I'm up here in New England. It's more fun when they're actually relevant because who knew,

but the Patriot fans are not very nice when the uh Patriots aren't good like it's it's tough it's a tough football season so hopefully we can get their spirits back and I think Drake May might be the guy to do that like he might be good I think he is I mean we're spoiled fan base for sure um they were not down bad for for long enough I probably should have been down bad a little bit longer. But yeah, keeping it going. Conor, Dray, any thoughts? Any additional notes to pass along?

No, I like it. Some research that I've been trying to think about how to do, but I don't know if it's possible, is how often a player hits their longest and doesn't hit their over or hits an alt. So you know what I mean? Trying to figure out that difference and like it's probably player specific like george pickens you know i mean his prop is pretty high but his longest is also like 28 and he just hits it every single week like every week um i mean you'd be rich just betting it like maybe not kevin jennings

rich but pretty close you know if you just bet that every week so uh i don't know it might be an off-season project for me to try and find the data on that because like i feel like there could be i don't know if you're allowed to do net like correlation with longest under and then yards or like yards over and then vice versa see if there's any like plays like that um like especially they're not seeing a ton of targets i don't know just speaking out loud here but i do think that the drake may look is pretty solid and the the note from coach speak index uh is really strong shout out to him by the way for making things very easy in his discord it's like five bucks a month and like he compiles every press conference and notes on each player that matters so uh definitely worth uh any money there so shout out to him no it's a good one it's a good note um good service for sure and it's

an interesting off-season project to probably scrape all that together um yeah i wonder what that would i wonder if they even let you do anything if you take advantage of that just it's like the you know high volume you know teams that don't give up explosives type of thing i'm sure there'd be some interesting matchup specific stuff too which would be the hard part and just to not be able to capture in the data would be a matchup specific part of it. Cause that's a big piece of the handicap typically. Yeah. That's a good point too. Yeah. I mean, it's historical prop data is really messy regardless. If any of you in the chat or anyone listening has like a good source for that kind of stuff. Um, I found it really difficult to get into like just normal places. I have some like

season long data for the last three, four years. Um, and even that's been just a huge pain in the ass to keep up with and like find consistently on a year-to-year basis but um hopefully soon i think gambly i requested it on gambly and it said it's coming soon so that would be pretty cool um that would be awesome that'd be sick yeah i mean ideally you want some sort of in this instance for quarterback rushing longest you want some sort of willingness to run you want um ideally probably a bad offensive line or you know against the team that brings a lot of pressure that can create more of the scramble opportunities we think we have that here uh with the dolphins patriots matchup because again like dray may is doing great this offensive line is still

absolute trash they're going to continue to create scramble opportunities for him without a doubt so all right connor back to you keep it. What's your, your second one slop. See if you can hold on for this one. Yeah, I'll make it quick. This is an under, we're going to go with the Marcus Robinson under 27 and a half receiving yards.

He's played really well this season, but Cooper cup and Puka Nakua finally playing like 75, 80% of the snaps. He's just 19 and 23 yards each of the past two weeks on nine targets, only three receptions. This is despite facing like two pretty easy matchups. It was Miami and new England. Stafford had nearly 600 passing yards, 73 pass times in those games. DeMarcus Robinson has again, 23 and 19 yards to show for it in those two games. Now they face the Eagles. The Eagles defense since

the buy has been awesome. I mean, they've zero wide receivers have cleared 55 yards. That includes Jamar Chase, Mark Cooper, Malik neighbors, Jerry, Judy, CD lamb, Terry McLaurin, Brian Thomas. And they've been super good against outside receivers, just 6.3 yards per target. That's where Robinson plays over 70% of a snap. So I think that this, again, like for a guy who's like the third slash fourth option,

most of the time, and it's like very heavy on options one and two in a game that i think might just wind up being kind of ugly especially with devonta smith probably gonna miss like it just might not be as explosive as we wanted to and the eagles are running the ball so so well like they just like kill volume on both sides we played the noah brown under 41 last week and that got home like i mean that was just he had three receiving yards he had like couldn't catch a single pass so again i don't think demarcus robinson is all that good either so kind of the same boat they're playing like an ancillary receiver under who's gonna play a lot

yeah i can smell this one coming yep some you know that one made the most sense to me for sure i even put it in my notes that i thought it was an option this week um i hadn't looked at it i hadn't seen the actual number but makes sense slopav did you Tune out did you hear any of that Yeah no I'm out of that game Totally I had it crossed off Like literally as a stupid game So the unders

Yeah that's generally meaning There's going to be a ton of unders in that game And I don't want anything to do with it Hard to pinpoint any of the Overs in there too Yeah I can't like think about it Give me one under or one over for that game and i don't want anything to do with it yeah hard to pinpoint any of the overs in there too yeah i can't like think about what give me one under or one over for that game that you're like yeah i think like they're not you can't really be sure about any of them i'll give you one it's not widely available yet it's only on espn i'll take aj brown longest over 26 okay yeah that's i don't do the longest markets.

Yeah. I love them. You love those longest, huh? Love them. No, that's awesome. I just think it's interesting that everyone has their own market. It's just funny. Then you'll know, oh, that's a Noonan

bet or that's a Conor bet. You know what I'm saying? It's just funny how you just kind of that's a noonan bet or that's a connor bet what's an under but you know i'm saying like it's just funny like how you just kind of know how noonan would take that you know like it's weird vibes you know it's like yeah it's funny to our lanes connor is actually we were talking about that in our internal chat this morning is like they're just we'll have the same thought of of a matchup in a game and we have multiple people thinking of different derivatives basically but tell the same story so like it's the way your brain will go to in a matchup, it's just how it works.

Do you think it's good for, I think for people that watch the show or people that consume the content is just a variation of ways to get down. Yeah. Like I, I played Swift under this morning at like 59. And then I think Stu and you were thinking about like Roshan receiving overs potentially,

because they were kind of like, I think Swift is going to be limited, tough matchup on the ground, things like that. We might see more Roshan. overs potentially because they're kind of like i think swift is gonna be limited tough matchup on the ground things like that we might see more roshan we saw way more last week anyways with thomas brown so like again those are i did great now the swift number is kind of cooked so i definitely would play prefer roshan receiving numbers um we know whenever those come out and then richard here complimenting me connor's better not just under there yeah that's he summed that up perfectly perfect it's not just a regular under it's like god damn you really want to do that under all right yeah he's not going up to you know you you balk on we talk about how you balk on like what is the number 70 79 79 but you're not even attacking those guys under you're

taking like the dudes that are 19. He's like, this guy's not going to play. It's basically the opposite of my overs, where I'm like, let's go way over. And he's like, let's go way under. And you're like, damn, dude. All right. But he hits them. No, he's crushing the shit.

He's crushing the shit. Unreal. Yeah. This is my best public season ever, actually, surprisingly. The problem market got better, and somehow I also got better. Actually, I know why I got better. I do have a longer reason on why I'm better, and part of it's because of working with Stu and Jake

and Noonan closer this year, and the other part is we're releasing lines earlier because our subs basically said that they can get down whatever still, so we're not waiting for other lines and letting things cook like i'm just you see you fire you get down and then if you can't get down just i don't know figure it out like find another way yeah get someone i'll get another account i don't know get a local like figure it out because this is the way to win so yeah yeah it is interesting i mean i definitely i like receptions i know slop will do that too

but you never even take like the binary line you're going you'll skip up a number to get a plus number so uh definitely unique ways to get down for sure yeah i like the longest i like i think there's matchup specific stuff like i was touching on there where you can look at you know tendencies air yards per attempt uh receiver wise quarterback wise explosive rates allowed all those different stuff i think is something to exploit so all right slap that's you buddy what do we got all right i'll go with uh connor's boy uh caleb williams 250 plus passing yards is plus 310 he's getting that yeah me has to the the new guy calling plays wasn't bad they didn't look horrible dude like you got a

I know you're a Bears fan and like or you hate them but whatever like they weren't that bad last week they weren't and um I don't know I think that it's just it could just keep getting better I mean change was needed obviously but uh I know that game was a weird game and you got to 231 i think against the vikings 250 is in play i mean on on the season i not many teams have given up more passing yards to quarterback i think like six maybe total but the vikings only played 10 games a lot of those other teams played 11 so they're giving it up i mean they they got a great run defense i don't think they're going to be able to run the ball chicago and i think at some point they're gonna have to throw it dude 250 is not that much especially when he's got dj moore they involve cole comet again rome it like got targeted 10

times like he's actually good so i don't know that offense could open up. And when it does, 250, that's a low, low bar. Plus 310, I'll take that. Over the last five weeks, the Vikings have given up the third highest rate of explosive pass plays. Ooh. Almost 19%. Good stat. Good stat.

You might have just changed my mind. I mean, for the Millie, I think we probably obviously now have to go 300 plus at plus 920 i mean he's gone 300 like he's done that before no i i was flirting with rome longest at 18 and a half that's why i uh i took rome's receiving yards too i was gonna say 41 really but uh i'll tell you you're nice people yeah i got them yeah did you get 41 or so 42 in that range i did six plus receptions for like plus 350 you can catch six balls why did i think you were gonna bet the normal line i just i just said that you don't do that that's for the other guys slot blade juice ever no i don't think on the show i don't think so right i would never do it no it's it's bad man i don't even like having that. I don't think so. Right. I would never do that. No, it's, it's bad,

man. I don't even like having that ticket. Like when you're watching, like, yeah, this is minus one 20. I can't even watch this. This is stupid.

The good news is that when you do that, um, you don't have to win even 53% of the time. You only have to win 50% of the time. Nope. That actually helps. Yeah, exactly.

Two a day. Here's how I learned it. You do two a day. What I would do is if I was going out, always had the habit of like keep betting like after you've you know had a couple well instead what i do is i do two plus money bets for each window so that way i'm covered with action and all i gotta do is hit one yeah that's that's pretty genius right that one's good that got me by for many years until I could control myself a little better. Yeah, it's a good process.

But, no, no, plus money is where it is. Especially, like, dude, plus 300 for, like, just 250 yards? Like, really? That's not – come on, man. You can accidentally get that. Stumble into 250. You can get that on one drive if you get the right amount of penalties stacked enough yeah they got the offensive line for that in chicago too so they have the offensive

line 250 yard drive you know flirted with some of that some of those thoughts earlier today too yeah i don't i don't hate it i mean i i i think it's a decent it's a decent matchup i'm encouraged by what we saw um i know connor played an under on keenan allen but i like yeah it's a decent matchup. I'm encouraged by what we saw. I know Connor played an under on Keenan Allen, but I like – Yeah, it's different. Yeah, I mean, Keenan Allen's a stack of potatoes, dude. He's letting it run around. No, but Keenan can catch his 40.

Connor still wins, and we let Rome and DJ Moore cook. Cole Komet. And Cole Komet gets in. Yeah, Roshan, Yak, and we're fine. Like, everyone wins. Yeah, I'm not worried i mean keenan rolled an ankle in practice today too so like i i would actually expect it to be rome and dj more in like two wide receiver sets predominantly which has been kind of like a change the last few weeks

anyways they've been using more rome in those wide receivers two or two wide receiver sets i expect that to be like full-time the case here and keenan allen just be like a little slot merchant that like sits down like i mean he can't get open anyways so like um he might have might be okay against his zone like that they play and it's like zone blitz but uh i don't know i'm skeptical it's gonna take like eight catches for him to get 40 yards so yeah yeah i mean more 11 personnel we saw last week too but they were gonna tell me more Rome on the fields, then I kind of like Slop's look even more. And then I think Rome at like 41.5 is probably a pretty decent bet. Dude, Rome 100 plus 680.

Yeah, I like that. That's not that crazy. It's not. 680 is a great price. You're going to get it against the Vikings wide receivers. So, I mean, if you think the guy's going to cover 40, why won't he get 100? Yeah.

It's so close. The plus 680, though, is the key. I joke, like we all joke, but just if anyone watching, it's the plus 680 is the key to that bet. I'm not really paying attention to the number itself. It's the price. It's like to me that's just off. It's a great price.

Yeah. All right, great price. Yeah. All right. I can get there. I feel this is going to be a fun millionaire parlay this week. I'm excited about it. It's going to be great. All right. Well, let me stay on brand.

I'm ready. Well, I'll take us home and then we can get there. Last one for me here. This guy owes Conor some money. Okay. Not literally, but kind of of because took a lot of money potentially out of connor's pocket last week but still managed to go over this line nico collins longest reception over 25 and a half yards um on draftkings espn mgm widely available

nico's got at least one 26 yard reception in every game he's played this season. He played one game where he played one drive. He still managed to get over 26 yards. He got that one rip from him early in the game, but still managed to get a 33-yarder late in the game in almost garbage time. So just no injury designation. He's off clear practice all week. Titans are dinged up. No LeGarrius Snead.

Slot corner Roger McCreary also might miss this game nico's mostly outside even last week though 30 routes run eight from the slot so if he's going to get some jabroni in the slot uh he can absolutely cook here so um again something he's done literally every game of the season um paying juice but not a ton um you know it's not a plus money bet but you can go on caesar caesar has like 30 plus or something like that i'm sure you can get it for like plus 120 or something like that if that's your jam yeah but nico is definitely uh gonna get home here in the dome no weather issues uh he's getting the lease at 25 26 yarder here so uh connor gonna get back in and and you know get your money back okay i'm gonna take a week i'm gonna take a week off i think on nico um

he hurt me a little bit so i I knew that like, I mean, they threw a flag like immediately. So I was like, I didn't get my hopes up, but then I was like, but as soon as that happened and like, he was kind of like, he wasn't striding out fully. Like at the end of the run, he was kind of like hobbling a little bit. I'm like, cause that's how he got hurt. The first time was on that long throw against the Colts maybe or something

like that. It was like a long 75 yard. he was kind of like you know hobbling at the end I just kind of knew I'm like this is over I'm like this is it's just not happening like it's if you if you miss a 77 yarder and like you know it's it's pretty tough to get another 100 yards after that especially if you play like I think he's gonna play more this week probably like 75 80 last week you only played like 55 I think 55 all right so play more this week, probably like 75, 80%. Last week, he only played like 55%, I think, 55 or all right. So, yeah, I mean, I like the look, especially the longest look. I can't get there on yards anymore or alts because I'm just maybe a little just sad. I don't know.

Right. That's the beauty of this, too. When you're sweating these, it just takes one. You're not dead until the game hits the clock, right? So, you know, you can be absolutely doubting this. We just need that one play. So uh they're fun to sweat for sure uh slop any nico thoughts or i don't know long it's not your jam but i'm a no i'm a nico guy and i'm the way i like to do the longest is how they have them set up on caesars where you know if it's in the middle there you just go 30

plus you know what i mean like you wouldn't do 25 for like minus 110. It's 30. Yeah. So we should be doing with Pickens, to be honest. Because Pickens is going over the line every week, but he's going over the line by like 10 yards. Yeah. You know, 30-yarders. And they've moved him up from 21-and-a-half to 25-and-a-half,

but he's still a 33-yard reception for Pickens. You just need to be hitting a 30-plus on him. So they figure it out. I don't know. It's probably not going to happen. So, all right. I feel like we're good. I feel like we've got six bangers there to start. Start to build in some

uncorrelated, some alts, some ceiling outcomes. I have three uncorrelated. I didn't price them out, but these are receptions that were available this week. I think Jordan Addison is almost like our new king with the volume that we're going to get from Jamo. Addison under three and a half receptions, I think is always a good look. He's routinely getting like 18, 20 yard

average depth of target. So Jordan Addison uncorrelated, I think is interesting. Christian Watson uncorrelated under three and a half alt 50 plus 60 plus and Terry McLaurin under four and a half. And you can get some explosives. I don't think they're going to need to throw a ton against Dallas here, but you can get a couple of bangers early and put up some decent yards and then go under four and a half. So those are the kind of the uncorrelated I had. I don't know if you guys looked at those yet.

I really liked that that watson one um because there's also some a lot of uncertainty surrounding brock birdie and like his status and his effectiveness uh if he does play so like i think that this game could be like sneaky kind of shitty uh and so like that helps like again like i just don't think there might be much volume uh if like obviously pretty doesn't play or he plays like not that well which he didn't play well last week and uh you know i don't know there's a lot of uncertainty whether or not he plays so yeah i think that watson one is awesome man addison like every week um you know just makes sense yeah um mentioned the chat here about uh Addison might get a spike with Oliver out. I mean, they're running very different route trees.

Uh, Josh Oliver had a three yard average of the target last week. Um, so they, you know, they're not necessarily competing for the same type of, of targets. I understand the thought process. It wouldn't hesitate, you know, wouldn't make me balk on pulling the string here on, on Addison continues to just be used to stretch the field. But I understand the thought process. All right. Alts, what do we got? Who's climbing the ladder here?

Who's bringing home a milli? I think we got to go Caesars. Shout out to somebody in the chat. I was looking only at FanDuel, but I got my Odds Jam screen up now, and they've got rome 100 plus plus a thousand at caesars which is which is absurd they only have 680 at fanduel because they know you know what i mean they know yeah fanduel knows they're sharp he's getting i mean we

can do receptions too i'm telling you there it it looked different last week like they're he's a member of that team now it's not he's not just kind of like a guy hanging around like someone's kid brother like he's he's a part i think if if keenan allen is like limited at all like romo dunze is gonna just crush you know um all the way so yeah i mean 100 plus at uh you know i mean we're if we're building that kind of parlay we're only gonna need like five legs at, you know, I mean, if we're building that kind of parlay, we're only going to need like five legs. So, you know, the fewer legs, the better. Yeah.

You don't like the parlays going on now that are like eight legs for plus 100. Yeah. I don't understand that thought process. I think for NFL, it could make sense for like super high usage guys, but like NBA, like they're doing like 20 plus points is like minus 400. I'm like, dude, the guy could just have like a sniffles and like not for 20 points. Like, you know, that's like crazy to me. You know, like I could not agree with you more.

I it's, it's absurd. Like less legs in basketball. Trust me less. Yeah. Like in, in the NFLfl a running back you know he's gonna get like 10 to 15 carries yeah he's probably gonna get 25 yards like sure you could make the case in nfl but like uh i mean nba to me just seems bananas like how you get in foul trouble early like yep are you just cooked like whole things over and it changes the entire game

script too because somebody else is gonna start doing stuff yeah for sure yeah no exactly i think it's super fishy in the nba and i know that some popular people on twitter like to post that stuff but uh they don't win whatever they can play it i'm just yeah i'm not doing it yeah exactly teach their own right the iteration that i do on the nfl i've done this for years i shared in our chat um i will take team totals and tease them through key numbers. So I will typically I know teasing totals, but just team total. So like, you know, you get a crappy, like the jets for years, right? We had like the Zach Wilson jets and they would, anytime we would fire, if they happen to be 17 and a half, we would bang that under. But if you take that team total and you move to 24 and a half there was no shot that

zach was putting together four scoring drives right and then you start to tease a bunch of these you take you know really good teams that you think are going to go 20 plus and you get them at 16 and a half right through the key numbers you know they're going to get to 17 probably 20 points you know 16 17 being a key number so i would manipulate around key numbers put together a handful you know get myself into you know two to one three to one range uh you know a nice little multi-leg team total parlay never on player props but i understand i've seen it for sure uh but it's not a thing but i will still do it weekly on team totals because i think it's fun anyway it's me an idea maybe tease down you know the team total, like the low totals,

just to take a team to under, but to take like one of the receivers over his receiving yards and see what that happens. Because they can get the yards, not the points. I mean, that happens all the time. Yeah, I wonder if they let you do that, but that'd be sick. I think they do at FanDuel. You could just put whatever, I mean, I'm sure you'd be able to just put

whatever number you want. All right, so Rome, 100-plus? I think Rome 100-plus, or you do seven-plus receptions at 625, plus 625 at season. I mean, that's not a bad price, but I like 100. Yeah, Noonan's note on them allowing explosive passes leaves us like, we can win that shit at any time. He has 30 yards going into the fourth quarter. Caleb rips a 70 yard at a rome and we're we're back you know so yeah um i

like that a lot what do you want to do with tommy slop uh like how high do you want to go do you want to do touchdowns or do you want to they give us three touchdowns it's four i'm just kidding he said it so seriously i was was like, I love it. All right. Fuck the three. What's the four price. Um, let's hear it.

I mean, three, no, it only gives me two on Caesars. Two is plus two 80. We can also do two 25 passing yards is plus three 40. And that's, I mean,

not bad at all. Uh, two 50 is plus six 75. I mean, that's again, 250 passing yards is not that much. Um, that's not that crazy man like yeah hang on two don't give us three over there damn caesars is just they're

listening you know oh they know dude um 22 completions 100 at fanduel but then we couldn't do rome at fanduel because they are they know like Yeah, we want the Rome line. Yeah, we got to have the Rome line. It's more important. So, yeah, I would say the 250, that feels good, man. All right. I bet you the Giants are more on the Giants. We're building. Yeah, high numbers this time.

We're going plus 600 or better. Plus 250 makes sense. I'm going to add into this game, Mike Evans, a hundred plus receiving yards. Um, I mean, it's an awesome matchup. The only reason he's lined at 50 something is because people are worried

about his hurt. I mean, the giant secondary, you know, like it's a great matchup. He's going to pepper with targets. No Godwin. His only target competition is Kate Otten.

And they've been like, the receivers have been like Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shep Trey Palmer like a bunch of bums like and their coach even said this week he's like we have we need guys out there who can get open like we don't have anyone get open so like I think that we see a ton of uh a ton of Mike Evans this week so if Tommy gives any pushback like I think that's kind of like raises the tide there on this Mike Evans stuff too. 100 plus is like plus 600 too. 675. Wow.

We have a 175 to one three-legger right now. We're off to a good start. Those all feel like they're going to hit easy. Brock Purdy not seen participating in practice again on Friday. So I don't think old boy is gonna play but if he does i bet the under so hopefully he does play yeah if if we keep getting that information i have i have a play that almost made the show that'll have to have to get dialed up here because yeah that's definitely one to watch. He's obviously not 100%. Yeah. What about Caleb, three Caleb touchdowns?

What's that? You want more Bears exposure? I mean, I don't know. I feel like we're already there. You know what I mean? Let's see here. Caleb, three touchdowns. Three's got pretty good. Plus age 50 plus a psychopaths are out here banging rome

rome just down to seven to one now because uh what is it yeah chats i mean we love the chat we love the chat but you guys are killing the play hey whatever you gotta do guys yeah we're fine it's fine get some it's why you're here we want you here what um what do you think about oh my gosh they pulled some of these off the board like i'm like adding them and they just keep getting yanked um out of my slip um i'm like what happened to my slip my slip is like yeah no dude uh kareem hunt 20 something carries um i mean what was the note that you had in our write-up noonan what was it like every well so the last two games were close.

There's the Denver game and then obviously the Buffalo game. The four games prior, he had at least between 21 and 27 carries. So 25 carries for plus 550, or is that too rich? There's just no competition. Yeah, I mean, with Pacheco out, they don't want to give the ball to anyone else. No. Yeah, I'm fine with it.

22 is what? 3-1? Close to that? Yeah, but we're going for outliers here. We're trying to do less legs, so let's just go 25. What was the other one? Mike Evans. That one got yanked too let's see did they just like pull it entirely no they didn't all right it's here um okay so without including kendrick bourne which i think we could include um we're at and without including caleb yet which we might be able to do as well

dude this is so annoying it just keeps pulling props you guys got to stop this is uh cat chill chat chill um all right well i'm gonna i mean i'm gonna try and put it on my computer now i guess i don't know if it's just my phone or something like that are you guys trying to build this at all too i mean this is crazy i was trying it's gone and it left my slip like it's just like i don't know i don't know what's going on all right davido evans dunze and hunt in the slip. I'm missing something. What did we even talk about at this point? Somebody said Rome, two touchdowns. It's pretty good.

Plus 20-something hundred. Just a Rome. It's a Rome million dollar parlay. It's all Rome. Move the line. I mean, I'll be honest. Rome, 9, 120, and 2. That might be something to explore too,

just like a super aggressive play on one guy. You know what I mean? Kind of like Ian Harditz on Twitter. You see him ever? Yep. The helicopter one and has just some ridiculous that line. Like those. You know what I mean?

Just call that and just see this hope. You know what I mean? Just go all in on one random dude. Especially as a guy that you take a ceiling outcomes like yeah just go and see what happens the first bit the first year that he did that bit like every play actually happened like it was literally like happened every week um that's awesome yeah he would like not go to bed for three touchdowns it's plus a thousand for three for caleb three passing touchdowns at draft kings it's plus a thousand i'm just saying he's thrown four before in a game also

to the vikings 15 15 passing touchdowns 10 games you sure you know they played some bumps too in there oh boy i'm not gonna say that one out loud hey there's nothing wrong with that teach their own that's what you want to do mac is in the chat he's got the right idea here addison and watson parlayed together under three and a half receptions 50 plus 80 to one you're cooking you're cooking the gas i I mean, that's Andrew, man. That's how you do it, bro.

How you become great. All right. I forget what we had. We definitely had. Okay. We had a row. Evan's a hundred. Yeah.

Which by the way, DeVito plus six 75. Now Roma dunes, a seven to one. Kareem hunt five plus plus 550, 25 carries. Already done that twice in the last four or five, six starts. And then Kendrick Bourne 70-plus. He's plus 900.

He literally just did this last week. So, I mean, we could even go lower on Kendrick, to be honest. We could do plus 550 at 60-plus. Caleb, three touchdowns passing. All right. We'll put it in there. Slop it. That's the scariest one to me, but I like your conviction.

I mean, it's Caleb. He's got a new guy calling plays for him. They're probably friends. Imagine he – what if he hated the other guy? We don't know that. What if he hated him? It's like we don't know that like what if he hated him which is like man this fucking guy's sandbagging everything yeah and then all of a sudden like he gets fired like how would you feel you would feel pretty good right you'd be like ready to throw

three touchdowns same game two to roam true that's true i mean maybe like we don't know that i don't know that he hated the guy but what if he did that's all i'm saying what if he did we don't know that he's just sandbagging and now he did? That's all I'm saying. What if he did? We don't know that. He's just sandbagging, and now he's ready to absolutely let loose. Guys are blocking. What if the offensive linemen hated him, and that's why they weren't blocking? But now they're back. You know what I mean? We don't know.

We don't know these things. This is a big plan. True. We have not talked about our King Jameson Williams, who did hit last week in a glorious way. That was incredible. Laporta is back, though, I guess, is only hesitation, if that matters. I mean, I think that adds more volatility,

but he's still probably going to see five or six targets. I don't know. It's not quite as exciting as last week, where it's two guys they're throwing the ball to, and it's Jamison and Amin Ra. And they won by 50, and they still got there. And the Colts, what did you say, Noonan?'s like four defensive injuries for the colts right someone that's like three yeah we haven't gotten any information on if those guys are but like to miss friday practice

is weird like you're grover stewart deforest buckner you're two interior run stoppers uh zire franklin you're you know all pro linebacker um all not practice on Friday So that's not Not great So I feel like there's some all like Rushing Sounds rushing We lost you Connor you're muted Unplugged or you're muted

We could go Montgomery or Gibbs I mean Both of them 100 plus rushing yards Both of them We could go Montgomery or Gibbs. I mean, Montgomery, Gibbs, seven. Both of them 100-plus rushing yards. Both of them 100-plus in the score. Wow. Montgomery. That's not that crazy.

Barry Ward and Christian Coy used to do it all the time. Yes. We don't even need both. We're already at $4 to win a million. Probably get it down to 20 cents. Sounds like a good weekend. All right, so this is where we're at. We're at Odunze, 100 plus.

Caleb, 3 plus. Passing touchdowns. Connor doesn't like that one. You can tell. It hurts me, but Slop loves it, so I trust him. It's going to happen, dude. It hurts me, but Slop loves it, so I trust him. It's going to happen, dude. Yeah, I believe. It'll be three long cuts out of the road.

Richard's got it right here. Gibbs, longest alts. Oh, yeah. Is he a 30-yarder in there? 30-plus? Let's see. Sometimes they let you parlay the alts. Sometimes they don't.

It's very weird. Caesars does, I think. It puts SGP next to those. See, look. It doesn't have it today for some reason. I don't very weird caesars does i think like it's got that puts sgp next to those see look it doesn't have it today for some reason i don't know why it does normally have it i'm pretty sure maybe you could add it i was looking because i look at nico's like 40 plus uh it's like three to one plus 310 or something like that so yeah we didn't put that in. Hits every week, basically. Yeah. All right. So, yeah, Dunzai 100+, Caleb 3+, passing touchdowns,

DeVito 250, Evans 100+, Kareem Hunt 25+, rushing times, Kendrick Bourne 60, and David Montgomery 100 rushing yards. That is seven legs. Only $4.20 to win a million. Oh, $4.20 to win a million. $4.20 to win a million. That feels... I mean, come on, guys. Come on, man. You can't even...

That's a $4.20 parlay. That wouldn't even happen in the movie. It wouldn't add up to that. That's... I mean, I don't know how this doesn't happen. How's that not hit, dude? Also, the date is going to be 11 24 20 24 so then it's going to be 4 you know 220 you know so it'll be like 420 will be in date so it's that doesn't happen also

i didn't bring it up on the kendrick play kendrick lamar dropped the new album literally oh my gosh it's a great point how did i not yep i didn't came i didn't factor that in my analysis like this is literally like i watched watched one of the Bourne Identity movies the other day. What? Those are great movies. I was born in November. I mean, the science... If anybody believes in the

Gematria betting, the numerical betting shit, this is like a gold mine. What did you call it? Gematria. That's what it's called. G-e-m-a-t-r-i-a i learned about it dude if you ever have like just time randomly and you want something entertaining to read about just search that on twitter or internet and you will find some of the craziest people you'll ever meet in your entire life it's like wild wild hole to go down oh connor doesn't have kids ryan just for. Just so you open that up. You ever got time?

What's the time? These are the pivotal points in your life at like late 20s. You either have children or you look up Gematria betting. You know, it's like. I was there, Connor. I didn't have kids until I was like 30, I think. So I had that time. It was pretty fun.

Oh, man. Yeah. I'm taking my time. All right. Well, I put that in. and i'll probably round robin in some aspect or do another like mini one as well like i did last week it's i literally just took our milli parlay added some other leg like i came around on herbert instead of gus like last minute because um i don't know i just i just thought they were gonna pass way more i thought that

herbert's number was like way off you know all of a sudden which by the way, I can't believe they didn't give Gus any carries in the second half. Like it was like one carry in the third quarter. And they're like, Oh, actually we just, JK Dobbins is rolling. That's what they said, which he was not.

He had like, he carries for like 15 yards. It was not rolling. It was trash. I was, I was so bad. I hate JK Dobbins. He ruined my parlay too.

Yeah. I hate that guy. Oh, good. So parlay him and Nico both under. I hate parlay. Yep. Well, you would have to go over on that because you would be happy.

Right. Yeah, if he goes under, I'd be too happy. I did think – I mean, I don't know if we have a carries number out for Dobbins, but I'll bet that again. We bet it last week and it hit. I mean, I would definitely bet it again this week. I saw – I think we might um oh yeah 12 and a half fan dual on dobbins that's not good enough never mind i thought we got like a 13 and a half or something yeah it's a little short all right we got anything else uh we're gonna usually go over we went under today 51 minutes

i mean we were crew it's because we had less legs. That's why we were cruising. True. They're all so obvious. Yeah. I tried to cut the fat at the top. I know people get mad. We talk about like, you know, selling our sites and making sure people subscribe.

I try to keep it shorter for people today. You know, just jump right into it quicker for people. You have to say that. We got things to do. We're running a business here. Yeah. We have ProfitX, Connor. we have props on profit x we do yeah they're i think there's more liquidity closer to um game time but sure i know that we have some some people not able to get the numbers that we are um but profit x has a lot of liquidity in most other markets

and some of the prop markets. So kind of nice new sweepstakes app we partnered with as well. Use code BetSperts. It's like rebate up to $300. I think it's like based on your play. So it's cool. Best odds, I think, in the industry. I don't know. It's like Giants bucks right now are minus 102, minus 106 on the side. So if you're betting sides and totals for sure the best you're betting props probably the best so um definitely worth taking a look and good people running it in 46 plus 42 plus states so um solid product losers pay winners yeah losers pay winners the way god intended peer-to-peer stuff so yeah uh stoked about stoked about that. So it's a good one. I need to get down there a little bit more side to toe

because I'll sprinkle a little bit. I got to give ProfitX my business for sure for that stuff. So, all right, gentlemen. Slop, you know, where do people need to come find the rest of your stuff? I know you got more shows. You've probably been to NBA tonight or what else do people need to know? Twitter, at Slop Rules. Great place. I don't know if you've probably been in nba tonight or what else people need to know twitter at slop rules great place um i don't know if you've ever been there but um youtube as well at slop rules over

there we got the morning wood show comes on in the mornings uh thunderdome was out all nba tonight uh ten dollar parlay pays 440 000 so that would be a pretty nice way to start the weekend. That could be good. It's only nine legs too. And it's only got one triple double in it. So there is that. I mean, maybe it happens,

but yeah, I don't know. Just a lot of fun stuff, man. A lot of fun stuff. Talking gambling all the time. Always. Hmm.

Christian Gonzalez pops up on the injury report for the pats oh devonta smith out nick bosa looks like he's playing okay it won't matter if purdy's not playing so it's like they're gonna address it like coming up here okay yeah some friday news drop injury stuff so appreciate you all for hanging out as always even though you cooked our lines today wouldn't have it any other way we appreciate you being here again our favorite time of the week is to hang out and do this together with you guys as well so appreciate all of that again make sure you subscribe take advantage of the deal with

rebet promo code high slop dub club for a month with high slop one month at four for four bets no additional cost just the ten dollars that you deposit on rebet using that promo code high slop just insane deal people that's crazy every time i hear it it sounds crazy it's yeah we're coming but just everything's free. You know, you got to buy people gifts coming up. Buy someone a re-bet deal, you know? Yeah. Like, yeah, you know what?

I already got a sub. I don't need it. Like, yeah. Yeah, maybe, you know, boy, you want to have, you know, hey, you're missing the show. You need to watch the show. You need to bet these, you know, it's community. Betting is community.

We touch on this all the time. You know, fantasy is head-to-head. I don't want to tell you where I get my information because I got this edge. Betting, we all do together, you know? Like, unless you're, like, betting against each other on ProfitX, this is a communal thing, people, okay? Get in and let's do it together. It just feels better when you win.

You get people to share and sweat with. Take advantage. Get your friends over there at Rebat. Use promo code HIGHSLOP. Get in the Dub Club. Get in the 444 Discord. Let's win through the holidays. Continue to do this. We'll be back next week

on Wednesday for the game preview. Still do Wednesday. We'll be here Black Friday. No days off. We'll trip the fan in the system next Friday, but we'll keep it moving. I have nothing planned. Let's rip it. There's a game going on in the middle of our show next week, so maybe get i don't know if we want to touch on that yeah maybe we'll move

move it up raiders chiefs but yeah anyway we'll be here on friday for sure so for slop and car i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks for