Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: November 29, 2024

Get ready for Week 13 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize your winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show presented by DraftKings Sportsbook I'm Ryan Noonan back with my friends on this Black Friday edition week 13 Connor Allen John Hyslop here to talk about the best way the most profitable way to bet on NFL football and that is player props you can watch Chiefs raiders at the same time hopefully you're doing so not missing anything by putting that on mute listening to the dulcet tones of a connor allen and john hyslop on this lovely friday connor what's going on buddy yeah coming off of uh three and oh thanksgiving i mean what a day that was great um got started with the gibbs rushing overs um but i was catching some flack from my friends

who only watched only saw the parlay and they were like man like how did this parlay not hit and I'm like all of our other plays want like you know this is you're in the it was the my easiest sell for like hey you should join the discord or like hey you should do this because all of our other bets went three at oh I just the parlay I tweeted out didn't win. So what are you going to do? Tua crushed the cold. Tua in the cold narrative. It was awesome. But I think mostly crushed. Crushed enough for us to win our bets.

That's all that matters, my opinion. That's all that matters. Yeah, the Gibbs rushing stuff was absolutely wild. Had to sweat DJ Moore over 4.5 receptions a little bit more than I wanted to, considering he was targeted 15 times. But he got there on that touchdown late. Nice little 2-0 day there as well. Slop going on buddy how was the Thanksgiving how to treat you it was incredible it's one of the greatest ones my life there's not many Thanksgivings when you get to bet Drew Locke 175 plus passing yards to in an SGP and have it

hit on the same play that you needed for your receiver to cash. That was, I mean, you don't get that, man. I was very thankful for that. So thankful that I ended up betting the Packers and Dolphins. I wasn't even going to watch that game, but I did, and it was incredible. So, yeah, I'm ready to roll, man. I feel great about everything. Feeling good.

How did you do food-wise? Did you host? Did you have to travel? Did you have to make anything? We go in town to my sister and brother-in-law's house so it's super easy i don't have to cook anything and my brother-in-law is like an amazing cook so it dude i mean it was it was glorious glorious day absolutely love that love thanksgiving god yeah just love the day food family football doesn't get any better than that.

Even better when you're winning bets on top of it, which sounds like everyone did. It's a great way to start the week. Just feel like when you have that and you have that island game momentum that you can carry into like the start of the week. I don't know. It does something for the mind. You know, it gets you right.

See that board a little bit more clarity, more confidence. Hopefully we can carry that in uh to today's show and remind people live here every friday 3 p.m eastern on the four four bets youtube channel move with line wherever you listen to podcast if you're hanging out with us on youtube jump in the chat let us know what your favorite looks are for week 13 try to contribute to the millie parlay that we're going to kind of cook together at the end subscribe so you don't miss a show we'll hear on wednesdays talking more sides totals game breakdowns and connor had a really good discussion this week like power ranking our top 10 teams talking about some future bets i thought we had a couple really good future bets for you to take out there that i think are

really well priced so circle back on the wednesday show check that out as well if you want to get access to all the official plays, everything that we're doing, you want Slops Dub Club, you want to get into the 444 Discord, you need to download Rebet, Sweepstakes app, Sportsbook, Prop Builder.

It's got a little bit of everything. Use promo code HIGHSLOP. Deposit 10 bucks, and that's it. With that promo code HIGHSLOP, you're going to get access to Slops Dub Club for a month, 444 for a month. I i get you a ton of bets here for the holiday season

but you know black friday deal time there's no better deal than that out there right now you'll be able to use that ten dollars to make bets to buy your family your significant others yourself christmas kids i bought myself a bunch of Black Friday deals that I'm really excited about. Hoping they come in. So you can be able to treat yourself. Take advantage of this ReBet deal. If you have any questions, reach out to us directly.

But download the ReBet app. Promo code HIGHSLOP. That's the best Black Friday deal you could possibly do. Austin's here too. 200 people or whatever. Come on, let's get some more likes. We only got five likes. We appreciate those things a ton too. So, all right, let's get into it, gentlemen. This is it here. No live lines or no stale bread, only live lines, things that

people can get right now, Connor. Floor is yours. Week 13, first bat. All right, we're going to start off. I feel bad because I didn't have a lot of time to prep for slop and give him some overs. So we're starting off with some unders today. I'm going to go James Connor under 48.5 rushing yards. Really struggled the last two weeks, 1.1, 2.8 yards per carry. Trey Benson looked way better than him.

Again, accordingly, Trey Benson saw season high in carry share last week and got a carry in the second drive of the game, so they're working him in early. And now you've got, against the Vikings, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs, number one in rushing success rate and EPA allowed. Just four running backs have cleared 48 yards against them all season, which is pretty surprising,

and all those were basically workhorse like bell cow guys. So if Benson mixes in at all, I think that this is going to go way under. If James Conrad isn't playing well, which has happened multiple times, he could go under. And they're 3.5-point underdogs, so they fall behind. Again, probably going to go under. So lots of outs here. The number is way lower than it has been for his typical props,

but I think we're just adjusting to the new reality for James james connor in my opinion it might be a sad reality um doing a great job still like forcing missed tackles and stuff but the rest of it is uh is rough and there's just such a little play volume there too and they get on the wrong side of things it can get a little sloppy uh slop i don't know if you have anything to add to, uh, the James Connor handicap there. Yeah. I got nothing. Okay. But you wouldn't bet the over.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Okay. Okay.

Okay. Nah, you can't do that. Yeah. So just for clarity purposes, if you knew, uh, you know,

slop, not a big under guy, but if he won't endorse the over on it, that's basically, that's basically him endorsing connor's under so yeah they just bet the under without doing it yeah it's basically the same thing so all right slob what do you got buddy all right i think we need to get a little bit loose i mean you could be soft about this and you could take darnell washington three plus receptions plus

188 i did that already. But I'll be honest with you, man. We don't got much longer to live. You know what I mean? No way it's getting younger here. Why not go four-plus, plus 400? You know what I mean? It's right there.

It's been targeted four times in two of five games that Russell Wilson's played. Those other games, they weren't even behind. They weren't even playing like like legitimate offenses so like that doesn't count they got the bangles now who somehow think that if they win they can go to the playoffs i don't think they can win out but even if they did i think they need a lot of help too to get the playoffs so but whatever that's not the point the point is they're actually pretty good all right they're gonna hang points on pittsburgh i think i think that uh they can throw the ball that's the the problem. Joe Burrow, go look at his numbers. He looks like literally like a hall of fame quarterback. Like those numbers are ridiculous, dude.

He's already got 3,000 passing yards and we haven't even played December yet. So he's, he's going to score points. They're, they're very motivated. So guess what? Steelers, they're going to have to throw the ball more than they want probably. And when they do those stupid little dump passes like uh washington like acts like he's blocking somebody you know what i mean it just turns around that's reception dude uh he gets like four yards he falls forward for like four yards but he only

needs to do that four times and we want a plus 400 bet i feel like we got to do it i like him he's on my list for the week i just didn't know how to bet it. He's so fucking big. He just catches the ball, falls forward, and it's a 10-yard reception. Do you remember Madden, whenever you play franchise mode and you create a player? My guys would always be like 6'8", 320. They could run like a 4'2". And then the first time I saw him, I was like, wow.

I was thinking I created him with my mind, but i didn't like he just that was just how he was so that's pretty wild yeah like he is a giant he was catching the ball looks like he's playing with you ever see those little uh vanity footballs it looks like that his hand when he throws him it's like that's a real football on his hand like a real one so yeah i would throw it to him every time if i was russell wilson i don't blame him i mean look pretty routinely early in the season his route participation was in the high teens maybe low 20s the last three weeks 42 34 44 again these are you know not where we typically would target but you know relative to where he was it's going up quite a bit. So, you know, I get it.

It's, it's he's, he's, I think fun. And there's some upside there. Connor, any thoughts on Darnell Washington? No, I like it. He's, I mean, he's a beast, so I'm definitely not betting he's under. I mean, that's, you know, I feel like that's my endorsement.

That's your over. Pops over, you know. That's a big one. Okay. I mean, I will preface it by saying he's only done this i think once in his career so there is that but at the same time he basically is the second year he basically didn't play last year so exactly he took james cook to get 100 yards at plus 900 last year remember that you've never done before guess what he did so that's true it is what it is like you

got to get ahead of these things that's how you make money but i think he catches at least four balls i'm dead serious but i mean if you want to be soft and weak simple whatever you want to call it three plus i'm we're not going to make that much funnier for this plus 28 your friends are going to think you're awesome it's going to be good it'll be fine i like it i uh i'm gonna play around with it four is rich for me but, but I get why you're there. He's going to start trying stuff four in the Millie Parlay, Connor. Yeah, I just loaded it up. I wasn't sure if we wanted to start there with three or four. I mean, plus 525 is pretty nice, though.

Oh, where's that? 525? Is that Caesars? Caesars, yeah, Caesars. Damn it, dude. So I got three. What's that? 525? Is that at Caesars? Caesars, yeah, Caesars. Damn it, dude. So I got three. What's three? Plus 175.

Okay, I got plus 188. Okay, I guess I was going to wait until four just to see what happens to that number, but get three now. Yeah. I'm going to put that in my pocket and see what happens. Okay, cool. Yeah, so we got to go at Caesars then if we're going to throw that one in there. For sure.

All right. We can do that. That. For sure. All right. We can do that. That's a move. All right, first one for me. I don't understand why this is so low. We're going to go after Cooper Cup. 64.5 receiving yards.

Pretty much available everywhere. I just thought it was going to be upper 70s uh when you especially when you start to think about what's happened this season especially of late against uh the saints especially with slot receivers they have been absolutely cooked um just five out of the last six weeks the only example example that doesn't count here is the panthers and are they even a football team like if this was like connor's sport overseas they would be relegated to a lesser league right like is that what soccer does like you just kick out a league yeah you're really that's pretty cool which is awesome by the way yeah it kind of is awesome i'm kind of into that so the panthers we essentially are are relegating um the other examples and they

you know whatever they what's their slot receiver this is the past five of their past six slot receivers they face juju 130 yards chris godwin 130 yards those guys aren't even really playing football anymore um lad mcconkey 111 drake lond, 97. Jerry Judy last week, significantly more slot snaps than out wide, 142. They lost Paulson Adobo for the season. They traded Marshall and Lattimore, so their secondary has been ravaged. They got this guy, Ugo Amadi, who is playing slot. He is leading the league, I leading in like all the bad stuff um on average a slot receiver is targeted once every 5.97 uh snaps a lot of 3.7 by far the

highest rate in the league he's giving up a reception on 4.8 snaps, 8.4 is the average. Two yards per snap, again, double the league average. And we get Cooper Cup, who just got targeted 11 times against the Eagles, caught eight balls. He's been cruised over this a bunch of times this year. In the dome, 64.5. I mean, absolutely, ladders, whatever you want to do on Cooper Cup, this is just way, way, way too light. So, Aslaf, any thoughts? I like it. Anything you over – no, Cooper Cup, I mean, ladders whatever you want to do on cooper cup uh this is just way way way too light so i'll

slop any thoughts i like it anything over now cooper cup i mean in the 60s it's kind of crazy like really when you think about it that was my point i thought we're going to be kind of pushing connor's threshold of like 79 and a half yards you know connor's i'd like to get into the 80s but uh what are your thoughts on cooper cup buddy no i don't mind it it's i mean he had what eight for 60 and one against a pretty good eagle secondary at this point um and now he gets a much much softer matchup i mean what what's the spread even on this game like it's supposed to be yeah i mean like as long as the game stays close like we should see the i mean we should see him sling it a little bit so yeah i don't mind that at all i think that's kind of fun it's uh plus i don't even know what was that guy's name you said ugo amadi

ugo amadi i mean that is that he sucks so he sucks yeah yeah he sucks hard so yep we'll be laddering that we'll have some sort of that i'll be you know pushing for that obviously and into our milli parlay but uh kind of looking back to you buddy what's uh next on the board yeah i just got to keep uh slop awake over here uh tyler algier under 27 and a half rushing yards um he had another under just for my guy slop i mean it's a low one man it is a low one he saw zero carries last week. Bijan saw 12. The last three weeks, there's been this coach speak coming out being like, hey, we want to get Bijan on the ball as much as possible.

He has just 17 carries the last three weeks to Bijan's 51. I mean, I think the game probably could be pretty close. I know that the Chargers run defense is not as good as it was initially. But I mean, I think some of their numbers are skewed by playing against Derrick Henry, who is good against virtually everyone. And their numbers are also skewed against playing. It's like some of the worst running teams in the NFL, but again, it's going to be mostly Bijan. So like you probably need Algeria to get like eight to nine carries here to hit the over on this. That's a lot of work for a guy that's literally just saw zero carries. They're coming off a buy. Like it wouldn't surprise me to see like again like 75 bjohn kind of like what we're in this spot so i don't know i i again this

is mostly a workload play like again i just don't really see alger seeing like a plus carries in this spot yeah it carries available or carries not available uh i did not see them yet um but they could be. I mean, let's see here. It would probably be right around there. No, nothing yet. Bijan's at 16 and a half, which is a lot, but he's been seeing all the work.

Again, it's like 12, 19, and 20 carries the last three weeks. Yeah. The assumption of rational coaching thing, you push back and go, hey, we just saw the Chargers get run all over on an island game. Are wise enough to be like hey we got some pretty good backs should we should we do this um didn't work didn't work last time we saw them uh they got absolutely boat raced in that game against uh against the broncos so uh slop any uh bijan algier thoughts uh I'm pro B-shot. Yeah. Yeah. I get scared about the Chargers run defense, but I think Connor's right. I think that's skewed because, I don't know, they're not that bad.

They weren't as bad. That was Baltimore. I think they're just probably fine, right? They're probably just middle of the pack. I don't know. They might actually. What if they were actually decent? You know what I mean?

Then you're going to see throwing from Cousins. I don't know. They might actually – what if they were actually decent? You know what I mean? Then you're going to see throwing from Cousins. I don't know. I wouldn't say they suck. So, yeah. Their yards per carry to running backs is pretty bad, but their success rate is pretty good. Can we take out Henry or the Raven? You know what i mean like

can we do that just for running backs as well because sometimes i get skewed whenever you see a decent running quarterback or quarterback scrambles and it's like all right well it's a 25 yard run that should have never happened and now that's in the running stats which doesn't belong there it wasn't a run you know what i mean so yeah i'll pull it up here so for what we want to use it for we want running backs you know what i mean like that's all we want we don't want anything else yeah i mean they've allowed some some solid games like so i think the bijan over is in play like we talked about we're trying to play chubb i don't know maybe six weeks ago five weeks ago at this point um and he kind of fell flat on his face but that might just be more of a nick chubb thing than

like uh yeah that could have been the browns like the browns line yeah i mean they haven't been able to run the ball i don't know no matter what so yeah i mean it's i don't know it's tough again mostly a workload play um yeah i think they're like they'll probably play fine against atlanta but i think that bijan is Bijan overs are probably in play too I just don't know what they're they're like probably in the 60s I think 70s so um it's tough too close to the thresholds yeah no I mean it's a better look taking Algiers under even though that's such a disgusting number to be under but like it is it's the move in that sense you know what I mean?

Because if you're right about the Chargers defense being actually pretty good, the run defense, then yeah, you're probably going to be right, especially if you're right about B. John getting more carries. Yeah, B. John's probably 75 and a half. Yeah, no, I wouldn't go over that. Yeah. I think that could be a throwing game seriously like i really think that could end up being like kirk cousins maybe as a you know closest 300 game yeah i like drake london

stuff uh quite a bit actually so yeah that could be it takes algier right out of the picture yep it could be another way to go about it. I don't even know if he dresses for a game like that. It's Bijan's water boy. Yeah, literally. Just chilling on his island. All right, so I'm going to do something that I've never done before, but I'm willing to do it now. I've seen enough.

This is both the player and the defense game. But what about our guy, Bryce Young, 225-plus passing yards? It's plus 198. Okay. If that helps. It's plus 198 okay if that helps it's plus 198 um as you can see i'm i'm not happy doing this like because it's bryce i've watched him play before but he has not looked that bad like that's my self in the last couple weeks. Before, don't even watch anything before two weeks ago.

He hasn't looked that bad. Now he gets the Bucs who give it up literally to everybody. Yeah, no, I wasn't doing an under. Come on, Steve. I thought this too. You had me for a second. I was like, I'm going to bet whatever this is blindly. I don't care if I disagree with it fully.

I'm betting if it was an under. I'm saying I don't want to do this, but I think it's the move, especially at like 2-1. 2-25 is nothing in the NFL. And against the Bucs, we got decent weather, so we're not going to get like some weird weather game. It's going to be just whatever it is. It's a little cooler than normal, but whatever.

The Bucs are going to score on the Panthers. That's just going to happen. So we're going to get something going in terms of like the Panthers can't just hand the ball to Chuba Hubbard a million times and just get out of there like that. Like Bryce Young's got to throw the ball. And I think he could be successful, you know,

for Bryce, but two 25 is again, not a, not a high bar. Everybody does that against Tampa. Everybody, Tommy DeVito just got a buck 83 against him I mean Tommy that's crazy like that's a lot for him so this week I mean he just threw all over

the Chiefs last week I I don't know what happened there I don't know if like maybe the Chiefs thought they had a buy or what it was but like they he threw all over him dude they were 260 plus and like they're actually a decent pass defense. Tampa Bay can kind of stop the run, like borderline stop it. I don't know, man. I think we get 225 out of this guy. Again, I don't want to do this, but I think it's the move. I can't not do it.

It feels like, yeah, the books are forcing you into it. I don't have a choice. Our hands are tied. Yeah, it ends up being a math thing. You just books are forcing you into it. He has played better. I don't have a choice. Our hands are tied. Yeah, it ends up being a math thing. You just kind of have to do it. He's been better, Connor, right? I mean, hard to argue against that. Injuries in the secondary to Tampa Bay.

I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I'm not going to say, like, I like this guy. I don't think he's good. Like, I'm on record saying that. I do not think he's good. But, but, but two 25, two to one,

I guess the bucks. I mean, I don't know if he's, he ain't that bad. They need to, they need to have an answer for the blitz because the bucks like aren't good, but they just like absolutely destroyed Tommy to be done. Part of that was Tommy DeVito.

There's being Tommy DeVito and taking sacks, but he also, I mean, had basically no time on three or four, maybe five or six plays. Absolutely destroyed Tommy DeVito. Part of that was Tommy DeVito. You know, just being Tommy DeVito and taking sacks. But he also, I mean, had basically no time on three or four, maybe five or six plays. It was just like some of the craziest thing I've ever seen. They were just bringing the house every time. They had no answer for it. So if Dave Canales is an answer for it,

I think Bryce can have a great day. He played probably one of the best games of his career, I think, against Kansas City. That was his best game. Yeah, by far. Yeah. Like, he looked like. By far. Yeah. He looked like a real quarterback. Yeah. I mean, he looked like Newton's son stature-wise,

but he looked like an NFL quarterback. I mean, this is like... Yeah. I think what stole me, too, was seeing yesterday the Giants' offense as a whole. You throw Drew Locke, and they look shitty. They're terrible. It doesn't matter. Do you know what I mean so so when it comes to that it's like all right so

you got a buck 80 something running you know with the giants offense i don't know dude i think he gets 225 i think he can get home on that it almost makes you feel like a genius bet too because when he does it you're like man i'm really threading the needle you know i'm out here betting bryce young beating the books i didn't even beat him with an under because like that i think that's unfair to beat the books for the bryce young under i think that's true you know that's not fair dude yeah so you're lowering the rim to seven feet and just thinking yeah and be like yeah i can dunk it's like yeah, yeah, technically you can dunk. You just dunked it. Yeah, not so much. I don't know.

Again, I don't love it, but it feels like that's going to happen. It's one of those where you watch the game that day and you're like, fuck, man, why was I scared to do that? That wasn't that crazy, dude. I didn't ask this guy to get me 300. I asked him to get 225 at 2-1. gotta come back the blitz to connor's point i will say that one of the bright spots to the panthers this year has been some pretty decent offensive line play um they've done a good job at limiting pressure bryce still takes sacks at a decent rate when he

gets pressured but the offensive lines held up and been okay this season. So, yeah, I mean, two to one, pretty low thresholds. Coming off of his best game, probably the best time to jump in before the books adjust if he actually ends up being decent. Probably the last time you get this price for that number. I would think so. Two teams in the NFL have given up more passing yards to quarterbacks

than the Bucs. That's it. There's a bunch of teams in the NFL. Ravens? Ravens are one of them. Jaguars. And the Jaguars are the other one. The Jags, yeah.

But when you start thinking of those, you don't really get a lot worse in terms of pass defense. Both of those teams are decent against the run the ravens are much better than the jaguars are but like and then the bucks kind of fall in that category although they do kind of give it up to running backs like uh yards per carry wise when you look at it doesn't look great but i don't know i don't think you can run chubba or chuba adam i don't think you can do Chubba or Chuba at him. I don't think you can do that. Be interesting to see if they try.

All right. Next for me, we'll just play the hits, right? I mean, I like to slop one off the board. Did something he's never done before. I'm going to do something I did last week successfully. I'm just going to play Nico Collins. Okay. Longest reception, over 26 and a half yards. Yeah. I would do anything Nico Collins I Okay. Longest reception over 26 and a half yards.

Yeah. You could just, I would do anything. Nico Collins. I'm fine with you want to do just all the hundred plus is probably, you know, you know, plus one 30 plus one 40, whatever.

I think his, his normal prop is like 84 and a half, 85 and a half, whatever. Jaguars. We just touched on. Yep. He's just going to, don't know 26 and a half

He's had at least one 26 yard reception In every game he's gone over this in all but one That one time that he had the 26 He's had multiple like 50 plus yarders Get called back the last couple weeks too So like he's just Sorry Connor Remember that one Connor

If it's still too soon. If it's still too soon, that's totally understandable. Remember that one? Yeah. That one sucked. Out of all of them, that one really sucked. The first one, though, that was bad. Yeah. Look, I mean, first week back, week 11, 55% route participation,

all the way up to 80 last week. I think we continue to see that climb up into 90 or so, where he typically is. He went off last time these two teams played, 12 catches, 151 yards in the score. Over the last six weeks, Jags have allowed the third highest rate of explosive passes, just a touch under 20%.

They got no answer to him. They played a lot more zone last time they matched up than what the Jags have played all season. It just doesn't matter when you look at, like, Nico's zone and man splits. He destroys. So even if they want to play a little bit of man, Tyson Campbell, he's just going to cook. So play Nico however you want. I'm going over 26 and a half on the longest because i think he gets there comfortably um but yeah we could do

nico i don't know what nico alts would have to be to get us into a viable number to get into the millie parlay because you probably have to go like 150 plus or something but yeah he's gonna cook here for sure so he can do that he can he did last time they played so love nico um connor any thoughts i don't know if it's too soon um it is a little bit too soon i see him out there and it's like uh so i'm seeing like an ex-girlfriend you know like in the public that's just and she's looking good yeah exactly man that was a nice catch i was like a nice catch and run. I was like, if only there wasn't a flag. I remember when I could have won all this money. It's tough.

Would have been rich, bro. Would you even be here now? Would you even be doing the show? Aruba. Cancun, probably. I might still be in Vegas, honestly. I'd probably be just getting through the 12K now because I'm responsible. I'd be at a grand a day in spending. It's'd probably be through it's about 12 days after i don't know

something like that um so yeah who's counting but me you know 12 days six hours and 37 seconds i think it's good luck i think the longest is a solid look i mean every week like he's he's their only alpha i actually don't think tank dell is still fully healthy he's not really been playing necessarily super well uh and stroud like force feeds him on every like chain to go situation they run him on these insane crossers like and they try and take like one to two deep shots at least maybe two to three per game so he has like so many different outs uh for him to hit this over basically every time i wish the prop wasn't in like the 80s because i again, it's over my 79 threshold. I'd consider it otherwise.

Yeah, I mean, you get a guy that has this, like, such a lion's share of the target share for the team and has an ADOT that's this long, this deep. It's just a good way to go about it. You're going to get a lot of opportunities to have him hit the over on the longest. Some of the other guys that I like to play on longest, they're a little thinner. Cause it's just,

they don't have, they're not gonna get that many targets or nearly as many as Nico. So I just feel like he's just kind of the alpha. So we're gonna go back to the welder. What about, what about John Meche though? I mean, somebody you think about kids,

like his 40 yards is plusie, though. What's going on with Mechie? Is he somebody you think about? Because, like, his 40 yards is plus 310. Three catches is, like, plus one whatever, 38, 36, something like that at Vandal. He played 71% of the snaps last week. Like, so he's kind of the digs. I mean, he's not Stephon Diggs, but you know what I mean? Like, at some point, I guess the team likes the Jaguars. Do you do that or do you just say no?

Well, the targets have taken a hit with Nico back. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. But we're talking about three, though. Like we're scraping the bottom here. Like we don't need this guy to do anything other than like catch three balls. That's it. Well, he's only seen three looks in each of the past two games so he'd have to catch all of them all three of them all three

he can do it or one for three last week yeah he can as long as he gets a three again you know like the yardage is the look for me in terms of that because like it just takes one yeah you know to actually work but i mean the jaguars i think they would have to actually score in houston and keep this thing going like for the entire game. But, I mean, I don't know. I just keep looking. I'm like, man, I can't stop thinking about them. You know?

40-plus, dude? 40-plus. We're talking John Mechie here. This guy beat Kanter. You can't beat the Jaguars? True. Yeah, I already bet against one guy who beat Kanter today, though, so I'm not sure if i want to back off yeah it's true yeah otherwise i'm gonna get you know oh you bet against that guy though i did you're right i should

kind of counter like counteract it you bet on them yeah i'm still thinking about i don't know that that's like a real bet that i'm going to do. But whenever you start seeing the teams like the Texans play teams like the Jaguars that we're talking about just giving up in the pass game, do you start looking at some of the ancillary options for that team? Even though they do have an absolute dog alpha in Nico Collins. Like you have to deal with like watching him just beat the shit out of like whoever's covering him all game long you know so there is that like every time he turned oh they moved the ball oh that was nico again that that happens quite a bit but

he's really good he sneaks in you know what i mean 40 yards not a lot dude not a lot here's the other way one of my uh uncorrelated for the week is Tangzel. He's on FanDuel. His reception line is 4.5. Beautiful. Under 4.5, 70-plus, plus 10.5. So almost 11-1 on Tangzel to catch four balls for 75 yards. Just get a nice break-along one or two.

He's probably not catching five balls. It's massively juiced to the under. I agree with Connor. I don't think he's 100% because I think he's actually really good and he hasn't been playing really well. So part of it's just the offense too, but that's part of why I like Nikos. It's like inefficient run-run pass where they need big chunk plays to get first downs all the time you know it's not a bunch of dink and dunk so that's why i think that uh uncorrelated

for tank and longest for nico makes a ton of sense because bobby slowick seems to like third and long quite a bit big third and long guy loves third and long jacoby Myers has caused third ball, which is insane. Do we want to... We got a question here for a live SGP. We're coming up on the end of the first quarter here, so that we could actually... Yeah, let's go. Let's take a look. ...reasonably do this really quick.

Abdullah, three catches. Has to. What book are you looking at? Are you going to look look at fanduel or i'm watching on caesars so that's just easiest for me but we can put it together we can just be priced i don't know not that price sensitive i think and just go for it um so over two and a half for abdullah um receptions and then they keep running them though man like he man. Like, he's going to get hurt. He's not that kind of back.

Yeah, they're running him a lot. I'm glad I didn't play this under. Yeah, I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this.

I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this. I mean, here we go. My guy. I didn't stay under that. Yeah. Oh,

Fandle just locked a bunch of stuff. So yeah, it's under the quarter. Yeah, it makes sense here. Rushing sincere McCormick still has zero yard or zero carries or even zero snaps. I think passing could do AOC over 200. I mean, again, this is kind of probably a decent by low point. or zero carries, or even zero snaps, I think. Passing could do AOC over 200.

I mean, again, this is kind of probably a decent buy low point if we think that this game ends up passing it all here. Brock Bowers down to 56.5. I think he's going to get loose soon. All right. Bowers over. There's no way this stuff to Myers is going to keep working. Like the one play. He caught it like behind the line of scrimmage and made some moves.

Like that ain't. That's not it, dude. Yeah. That was the other one. Myers is nine and a half. Is Bolton. The Bolton guy for the Chiefs. Is he good?

He is. He's been struggling this year. Hasn't been great. He just got hurt. Oh, did he? Yeah. Okay. I don't know how bad it was.

It looks like he was on his hands and knees kind of, like wheezing a little bit. Okay. But, I mean, if he's out, like if he's a coverage guy. I'm not a defense guy. I don't even know who these guys are. No, he's a linebacker. They just took Drew Tranquil.

You cannot buy. Cover anybody? Not particularly well. Yeah, but he would be a tight end. They got Tranquil. One tackle already, but he's off the board. And then we'll see more Leo, Chanel. These guys are not necessarily coverage linebackers.

So that'd be nice to see Tranquil's number pop back up at a decent price. I mean, my guy Max Crosby, I bet three and a half over. He's already got two. Over three and a half is plus 100. Someone needs to explain that to me. Crosby live over three and a half is

pretty great look. Throw him in. He's probably going to get two sacks. Where are you looking at this, Niren? I'm on FanDuel. FanDuel? I think he's probably gonna get two sacks where are you looking at this noon i'm on fandal fandal um okay i think i hit that tab it's on the defensive tab i don't even know i've never been in there i don't even know over three and a half yep fando only has a mark with one for what it's worth maybe that's slow is that why i see fando too i let me uh let me actually check the official scoring here all right so we got crosby

over i played over three and a half anyway so i like it all right nice um and then we got bowers what do we want over or under over over bowers over and it won't let me don't let you parlay same doesn't leave parlay defensive tackles, props with. All right. Well, people should bet that separately. He's only got one. He's only got one, but still decent look. All right. Well, I say we just, because this is, we have like probably a minute here to actually get something in.

We'll just do AOC Bowers. Is that even? Abdullah catches. It's like plus 310. Oh, that's hitting. AOC over 202, Bowers over 58 and then abdullah three catches can we do are we got all we can just go down to 175 just make sure we get one in you know what i mean sometimes you got to see one go through the hoop is it even still there one yeah it's 290 that stinks but it doesn't really let you do alts on Caesars mid-game.

Oh, just a second. Damn it. We were too slow. We're working on our live betting game here. Yeah, I'm not good at it. We lollygagged there for a good – Uh-oh. Jacoby down the sideline.

Another big chunk play. Yeah, Austin said your halftime tweet. All right, we'll work on something for halftime when we're done with the rest of the show, and we'll get something else. That's fair. Who's covering Jacoby? Because that's 49.

Dude, I'm going to get home on my AOC yards like in the first half. It would have been a lot cooler if it was Bowers or Abdullah. I think right now you want to look for Abdullah, a little dump off to him. Just make sure he gets one reception soon. I want his hands drying up. You know what I mean?

Keep them loose. Gotta keep them moist. Nothing chalky. He whipped the shoes. 13 on the Chief. Jesus Christ. He got waxed on that. Another one. Another chunk play to Jacoby. Absolutely got waxed on that. Another one.

Another chunk play to Jacoby. Absolutely eating out here right now. More Myers? Yeah. What the fuck? We would have already hit the AOC over, by the way, if we live at that. I know. Yes, I doubt we're getting AOC for anything good.

How is this happening, dude? Like, he had four people around him. Trent McDuffie overran coverage there big time. I don't even know how that ball got completed. Watch it again. Like, that doesn't even make sense. Look at Pierce. He's fired up.

He didn't even go tackle somebody. Millie Parlay? Or did you have something else? yeah we had no let's do it that's i just had those two to fire on basketball um like what show are you watching brian you think this is a college basketball prop show it's not buddy it's an nfl do we talk n NFL football, man? Guys got to read the room, Brian.

Great guy. All right, so let's hear it. Bryce Young, 225 plus or 250 plus? What do you want, Slop? I mean. Or not in the middle of the parlay at all? Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if we trust Bryce like that much.

You know what I mean? That's a lot of trust for Bryce. I mean, we're just talking a million dollars here. You're right. Okay, well, I got Cooper Cup 110 for plus 410. I got Brian Thomas Jr. in there. 100 plus at plus 440. I don't understand why his line is 56.

He had 80-something against them with christian kirk in the lineup now he's the only guy out there and i think this houston still have some injured secondary guys right if i remember jalen petrie's out for a while um yeah they're they've been mixing and matching quite a bit uh that might might make my actual card to be honest uh it almost made the show for me. It almost, it's, yeah. I think both Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Ingram, like Ingram receptions with Lawrence back, I think both of those are pretty viable options. I was looking at Ingram too, and that was,

I mean, he's just like, he doesn't have many yards. He just has so many catches. So I'm like looking at like receptions maybe, like even with Lawrence, he's like five – he doesn't have many yards. He just has so many catches. So I'm like looking at like perceptions maybe. Like even with Lawrence, he's like five to – four to six catches every game. So I think he had like 10 one game too. What was – what was your first one? Darnell Washington?

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Four. How many do you want? How many do you want? If they'll give us five, I'd do it. But four – I mean, he's probably going to get a career high this week. All right. This is the one.

But four, I mean, if we want to be safe about it in the response, but four for like plus 525, it's actually irresponsible not to take that. I feel like three is his career high. Yeah, no, he got four. He got four once. Did he? Okay. His first game with Russell Wilson, he got four against the Jets.

Again, they were doing that nonsense where, like, they said, it looks like it's going to be a run. It's like a play action. He just is blocking somebody, and then he just kind of turns around. That counts as a reception. They're going to do, like, two or three times. Watch. Watch.

I don't know how you don't do that. You got to throw it, Aiden. You got to throw the ball. Jesus Christ. Sorry, guys. I was feeling like that was Brock's third catch coming, and Aiden did not throw the ball. He just didn't throw it.

Yeah. See, and that's another thing. Chris Jones, you got to throw the ball. That's just how getting chased by Chris Jones works. Yeah. If you want him to stop, you throw the ball, or he's going to slam you on the ground. You got two choices.

Let me see what else. No, but Darnell, I'm telling you, Darnell catches four balls. There's no chance. No chance. Again, I wish I had five, but they don't want to Caesar. So, you know, I think it's career high time. Firemuth yards, too, if you want to juice it up a little bit because i mean it's kind of anti-correlated but his yards he's getting 40 i mean why would he not get 40

the bangles can't cover tight ends dude like they just can't so you get darnell for four firemuth for. Now we're cooking. I love it. All in. Big tight end guy. Slop. Yeah. Hey, they need him.

It's going to be kind of cold out there. Do you want to know what I already did in that game? Which, I mean, they probably already paid me. I didn't check yet. But Russell Wilson, 200-plus passing yards. Pickens, four receptions. Fire him with two receptions. That's plus 120. I just started laughing when I did it.

I was like, man, I thought I was getting punked. It's like, are you sure they're just going to let you do this? Like, plus 120? That's ridiculous. Trying to get your account flagged? What are you doing? No, that's what I'm saying. I don't know.

I was like, should I not do this? It felt illegal. I felt like there's like James Bond music in the background. I was like, damn, this is is wild like it just robbed the bank um looking around and shit dude i know slob you haven't got here yet because this is a monday but uh i don't know if you noticed courtland sun's been really really really good yeah he's good been getting fed like crazy did he just go to smu did he go to smu kevin kevin jennings you oh yeah kevin jennings you is we having kevin jennings he plays he plays um california and that that's not what we

don't want him in the california game what does he have lines up at least or no maybe here's what we want though connor we want him to not do well this week and then we want them to play in a playoff game which i think they're i think they're in play for that they are gonna make it out yeah so now they play a team like i don't name anybody and kevin jennings is thrown for 350 plus like no doubt like he they need to play a team that can score on them. Like their problem is that line is too good. The defensive line. Like I watched a game the other day. I was like, dude, that's what's messing us up.

So what they're going to need, they can't keep playing these cupcake teams. They got to play a team that can block those kids and then score on SMU. Now we can go full Kevin Jennings. He's fully unlocked. And like that Kevin Jennings, I don't know if the world's ready for that yet. I did some research.

I bet SMU to win the national championship at 40-1. Yeah. No, I think we should put that in this. I looked at the playoff seedings. It was like they're playing Notre Dame first week. Notre Dame sucks. They're so overrated. I mean, they can legit be Notre Dame. Then from there, they

play maybe like a Georgia or someone like that. So they're probably going to hit their clock screen. We're talking Kevin Jennings here. It's not about the money that we win. It's about the friends we make along the way. All the fun we had. And we have won every single week. We have literally six straight weeks he has hit his over on his passing yards.

But here's what we want. Let's say he doesn't get it we want to not get it this week like we want like downpours wind good defense bad offense on the side we want everything the whole nine give us everything to for an under under recipe you know what i mean just throw everything in there and then his number gets sinks a little bit now he takes off on somebody. I think it's the perfect game. It's setting up perfect for us all to get rich.

It is. Totally agree. Come back next week. We'll know what that is. Kevin Jennings. We'll watch what happens. This week we're taking the week off. We don't need Kevin this week. We need Kevin to not do so well this week.

Don't get hurt. But I'm saying don't do that. Yeah. All right. So I got Sudden 100 plus, Washington 4 plus, Brian Thomas 100 plus, Cooper Cup 110 plus, all 4 to 1.

I guess Sudden's plus 340. All plus 340 are better. We probably need like 2 to 3 more, and then we're there. Do you want to go Darnell under 30 yards? I don't think it'll work on Caesars, to be honest. Otherwise. He might be a correlation guy.

He can catch three balls under 30 yards, dude. Yeah, but once he gets moving, though, it's hard to take down. That's the thing. They don't let him move. He turns around. The guy that he was blocking is still right there, and he just kind of tackles him. He just gets in the way and Darnell trips over him.

That's what happens. Yeah, that's fair. Like, he'll get you three for 14, dude. Brian Thomas, okay, I like that one. Definitely wanted to get him in there somewhere. I think that that's pretty good. I would love, but he's not up yet.

Who's that? I would love 80 Mitchell, but he's not up yet. We got downs and dueling out against your path, you know? Yeah. No, 80 Mitchell longest was definitely,

it's definitely employee. Cause he might not catch a ball. But if he catches one, it could be for 40 yards. You want any passing game for the Vikings? We don't think the Cardinals can run on those guys, right? No. Anybody check on Marvin Harrison Jr.? Is he still playing?

He's still in the league. I haven't bet on him in weeks or even thought about him. It's a good spot for McBride against a zone-heavy team. McBride's splits against zone is pretty significant, but he's already 5.5, so you're chasing up to 7 or 8. I don't know if they have him posted right now. I think JSN overs are interesting. Yeah. They don't have them on season.

They do on, he's five and a half receptions of plus money on other spots on Fandle. Yeah. And, you know, I think we're going to have DK playing, but just another guy that is absolutely, I think just ascending.

And then the matchup in the slot against the Jets is pretty nice. When I go Gino 450 plus, are you going to play? 450 yards? He's going to stick it to them so bad. They're going to be rooting for him there, dude. It's going to be like a home game. 450? He's going to be like a home game. 450? Yeah.

He's going off. That just came out of left field. Can you even bet 450? We're getting plus 450. I don't know if they give you 450. That's what I'm saying. We can water it down a little bit. Go to like 325. You water down the 450. I love it.

Oh, man. That's why he steals the bag because he started at 450. Yeah. See what I'm saying? Now it doesn't sound that crazy, right? Three and a quarter. That's actually not bad. It's doable.

I don't think they have numbers for him for some reason. I think they want to find out if DK's playing maybe. Yeah, that's it. They don't know. There's no – But, I mean, if this week isn't the week for a Geno legacy game, I don't know what is. True.

Yeah. Because those were the first guys that told him he stunk. Remember he didn't write back when they wrote him off? Mm-hmm. And then the Giants did the same thing, and then now he's like, what, second in the NFL in passing yards, just making it rain out there. Yeah, that's true.

You know he just wanted to stick it to him. Think about every job you had that you got fired from. yards, just making it rain out there. Yeah, that's true. You know he just wanted to stick it to him. Think about every job you had that you got fired from. Dude, you hated that place after. You know what I mean? Still to this day, I bet, even in the back, there's a little bit of hate left in your heart. You know what I mean? It never goes away.

Always. That should be fun. Always hating my heart. I still got a lot of hate in my heart. I was afraid to. Always hating my heart. Always. I still got a lot of hate in my heart. I was afraid to even play the Nico longest today. I just felt bad for Connor. So much hate in my heart about that.

What do we think about – I mean, Jalen Hurts' alts I think are kind of interesting. If they're forced to pass, they've just been running so much. And I don't think they can run against Baltimore. Yeah, I don't think so either. If they can, it would be them. My bad. Obviously, if we're wrong, then we're really wrong. That's the point of these, though. Because if you're right, you really get rewarded for it.

Do you know what I mean? 300-plus passing yards is plus 470. I mean, 300 yards is not that much. No, not when you got A.J. Brown. Do we got Devonta Smith back? That's, I think, an issue. Probably not. We have Dallas Goddard, though, 47.

I mean, his alts could be in play. He didn't hit it last week, but his splits without Devonta have been, like, super good, super strong. And Baltimore gives it up to the tight end big time. I mean, his 100 plus is 750. So if you wanted to go 80 plus, it's 340, and that's hittable. Yeah, that's not bad.

I bet you Barkley catches a few balls. If they want to get him involved, I'm sure they can't hand it to him. Yeah, he's been catching more balls too, I think, without Devonta. Yeah, I'm still looking. I'm still looking. No, passing against Baltimore is the way.

Like you have to. I mean, his regular prop is 229. We did this two years ago against Tennessee. I remember you did that on the Thunderdome. Yeah, in the Thunderdome. That was my Thunderdome prop. They run the Thunderdome. That was my Thunderdome. That was incredible. They run the ball until they don't have to,

and then they can't. And when they can't, they sling it around the yard. Somehow last week, the Vikings threw for like 347 yards, and Justin Jefferson had like 27 yards. Yeah, that's tough. We can just go back squeaky wheel with – but Jefferson is going bonkers. One and a quarter. That's actually a good look.

I mean – What do we need? 150 from Jefferson? Yeah, what's one and a quarter? What is it like? What, plus 350 or so uh let's see here justin jefferson plus 300 for 120 plus 420 for 130 i like that that's a good price it's not bad i mean 120 is plus 300 it's not bad all right now we're now we're in a good spot here i mean this is it's not bad. I mean, one 20 is plus 300. It's not bad. All right. Now we're,

now we're in a good spot here. I mean, this is, we're just asking good players to be really good. Right. We're not even like, you know, these are all good players. I mean,

Darnell Washington is a household name, you know? Yes. Good player. He's like a, he's like a creative player. Yeah, he is.

He's literally a creative player. Um, all right. Well, Devonta Smith listed his question. Bryce is not in this, right? What? Bryce is not in this, right? No. We got Cooper Cup 110, Brian Thomas 100+, Darnell 4+, Sutton 100+, J.J. has 120, and then I threw Hertz in there, 300 plus just for fun.

We're at 10 to 172K. That's not bad. I feel like we can just leave it at that and win a million dollars. Win 172K. That way we have... Wadis are to win a million dollars after you've already won 172K, from my understanding. Yeah, well, what you want to do is take that

172K and turn that into a million. We're just forgetting the middleman. Yeah. We can bet a two-legger, three-legger. We each get one guy next week. We take our 172. We roll it over. Easy game.

I mean, this is literally easy game. Yeah. Anytime you hand the ball off to Brock Bowers, that should count as a reception. They just hand it off to him? Yeah. He's ran him around the end. Got him a first down, too.

Just saying. But still, that would have been cooler if that was a catch. Also going to need Abdullah to get involved more in the receiving game. This is kind of bullshit. Yeah, sincere McCormick out there. Yeah, I don't even know who that guy is. I didn't either until last week. He's playing over Dylan Lauby.

Don't even know who that is either. I mean, no one found out who he was because he didn't play. So that was disappointing. Hey, he's a wildcat from UNH. Okay. Oh, really? Yep. I didn't even know they started a team.

Yeah, they'll produce a lot of NFL players from Durham. You got to throw it, Aiden. Jesus Christ. They got to remind him. Throw it. I guess we're good. We're in a good spot. 172 feels fine.

I'm okay with that today. I can take a buck 72. Yeah. Probably gamble with it. Sutton Cup. JJ. Brian Thomas Jr., and Darnell Washington? Every one of those guys. Hurt's 300 plus?

Yep. Okay. Devonta questionable too. I think he might play. That could be interesting. That would be helpful too, obviously. But, yeah. We'll see. It's kind of hot yeah any halftime leans for i don't i mean it's all kind of messed up it's all coming together except for abdullah for me like bowers needs like two receptions abdullah needs three and then we just

need like 10 more yards I think for AOC. I don't know what I'd bet now. You know what I mean? I feel like they forgot Abdullah's on the team, which isn't great. Isaiah Pacheco's rushing yards is down to 23.

Have the Chiefs just not been able to run the ball at all? No, they're throwing it. Oh my gosh. Three carries for one yard. 16 attempts for Mahomes out here. He's just chucking the ball around. Give us a celebrating Black Friday. It's just Brock Bowers, Jacoby Myers, no one else has a catch for the Raiders.

Yeah. That's a target branch. All right, well, we'll talk off air for a minute or so, see if we can put something together. I said just tweet it out, so we'll tweet it out here after the show and put together a little halftime parlay. I like it. That's good to me.

Damn, man. I do my own field. Appreciate everyone hanging out with us, as always. Hopefully make some money here this week. Gave out some good ones. Don't forget to become 172,000 there with us. We'll come back and we'll roll it over next week. Get a full milli.

Check out 4 for 4 bets on Twitter. Get yourself a halftime SGPp here and then also connor typically tweets out this parlay that we built as well the 172 000 air parlay this week so good stuff as always hit that subscribe hit that like before you take off uh go on youtube search high slop you'll find all the slop stuff over there as well Don't forget to take advantage of the rebet promo. Download rebet. Promo code HIGHSLOP. $10. Going to get you a month of 4 for 4.

Get in our Discord. Get all of our plays. Get you a month of the Dub Club for HIGHSLOP as well. So we can type it out. Yes, sir. We follow on Twitter at 4 for 4 bets. For Connor and Slop, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time.

Enjoy the weekend. Thanks, everybody. four for four bets for connor and slop i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time enjoy the weekend