Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 14 2023 Player PROP BETS | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

Join us in the exciting realm of NFL Week 14 as we delve into the 2023 season's top player prop bets. This is your go-to source for expert analysis on top picks, NFL predictions, and betting odds, featuring in-depth coverage of Joe Mixon and other key players. We offer exclusive insights into the most promising NFL player prop bets for Week 14, tailored for both seasoned bettors and newcomers.  We aim to enhance your betting experience with strategic insights and expert tips so that you can maximize your success in NFL Week 14 betting.  Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Derek on Twitter 👉🏼  / dbro_ffb  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I am Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. We are live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. We are here to give you our favorite player props and take your questions, too. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite Week 14 prop is on the board, or perhaps you have a thought on something that's not out there currently. like that we'll try to get to as many as possible at the end

of the shows you know you're here last week things got off the rails a little bit too so you have any other you know life advice questions we're obviously prepared um probably prepared i think to uh to handle that for you as well so let us know anything you want there in the chat joining us live on youtube is the best chance to get the same number and price on these props. They move very quickly. If you prefer the podcast version, you should be able to find that in your podcast feed later on Friday evening.

Subscribe to either, to both. So you don't miss a show. It's free content. Supporting it with thumbs up, subscribing, all those things go a long way in helping us out. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on today, buddy? Not much.

You know, accidentally fired one off the Discord right before this, so a little desk pop action. You know, it's a little bit brutal there, but it's amazing how often the shift enter key doesn't work in Discord. But we're here, we're live, the props will still be good to go, and I'm excited. You know, we got a new guest this week. You know, kind of looks the same as Slop with a beard,

but, you know, it's Ann Daigle. You know know we got a new guest this week you know kind of looks the same as slop with a beard but uh you know it's uh and daigle you know we got a little combo here a little more combo between daigle slop our buddy over at uh fantasy pros and betting pros derek brown derek uh how's life man oh boys this is a good time man this feels like kind of like uh we're getting around the holiday season when you walk into the christmas party and you see the cousins you haven't seen in a few years. You give them a big hug and you say, all right, who's pouring the first round of shots? That's how I feel like today, boys. I mean, it's been a good time. We haven't talked props and betting. Shit, Connor, since it's been last year.

You and me, we're on a spaces, I think, and Noonan, I haven't seen your ugly mug. It's been a minute, man. Much love, boys. I mean, I'm just here to have a good time and talk some football, man. So thank y'all for having me. of thinking noonan i haven't seen your ugly mug and it's been a minute man much love boys i mean i'm just here to have a good time um and talk some football man so thank y'all for having me you know it's almost like a proud parent moment you know like so you know we we worked together years ago back at uh noonan taught me what DFS was, basically. Rest in peace, TQE. Very long time ago. No longer there.

But I remember when, you know, Derek started there and like, hey, he was a season-long guy grinding his tail off. And you just absolutely, again, like, you know, pump his tires. D-Bro does not need me to pump his tires per se. But hard work pays off. D-Bro grinds his tail off. So it is awesome to see that he's in a spot with a platform and an audience that can consume the love and passion that he has for this sport.

And I'm just excited to have you and to have you here and to talk shop with you this week. And I'm glad that you're kicking ass, man. It's awesome to see. Love to see. I love it man you you know i got much love for both y'all i mean all from the way back like we could go down memory lane and share a bunch of stories here and stuff but like huge shout out to both y'all i mean y'all been in the betting game for years man like and just crushing it you know so to see both y'all

landed four for four i mean really the the end result of what we all want to do in life is do things we love, which check and work with our friends. And I know both y'all are doing that, living the dream and stuff. And I'm doing the same damn thing, man. So major props to y'all. Shout out, man. I mean, look, like I said before, you'd have taken this back about what was it? Five, six years ago at TQE, boys? Like, didn't know a shit thing about betting, didn't know anything about DFS,

and lots of hours and time talking to really smart individuals like yourselves to learn it, man. So I'm just happy to be here, man. And I'm here so I don't get fined. So it's a good day. Folks, you can go over to Fantasy Pros pros check out the primer again like no matter what you're really doing in terms of like football speculation uh d bros primer basically breaking down at length game by game um you're going to be able to find some tidbits that are relevant for

your season-long league if you're playing tfs you're going to build some prop cards uh the primer is a great way and a free resource for you to check out. So definitely check that out. You probably already found D bro on Twitter at D bro underscore F F B. You can see that here. If you're watching live on YouTube as well. So a reminder, two episodes of move line each week. This is prop drops on Friday. Our game previews with Clark,

Connor and myself are 3. P.M. Eastern on Wednesdays as well. If you want to get more into sides and totals. Futures a little bit. We talked about this week too. Now we're in December. You can check that out again.

You will get that by subscribing to this podcast or this show on YouTube. The betting sub is where you want to be to get all the official plays. And that gives you access to all the WeDoIt 444. It is massively discounted because, again, we are in December. The betting subscription is going to get you

all of our NBA plays as well. We're going to be betting live NBA stuff every day. You want all those tools and all that stuff as well. You want to get into Discord. Check it out. Head over to 444.com slash plans. The way we're basically discounted right now, a monthly sub typically is $59 a month. Right now we're $59 for the rest of the year.

So you're basically at a buy one month, get two for free. Head over to the website. You can find more information here in the show notes as well. Again, 444.com slash plans. These are live lines, no stale bread. These are things that you could bet on right now that are available for you. Connor, again, typically we'll hit submit right now to a play. That'll get pushed out to the

subscribers. More of our subscribers, give them access to these lines that move very quickly a little bit before you do just kind of a freeloader taking in the show for free. We appreciate that you're here. We want to take care of the people that take care of us as well. Connor, the floor is yours though. You get to start it here with week 14.

Yeah. So as I mentioned earlier, I kind of accidentally popped this one, but it's still around. So we are in good spot here. And I like this a lot. Josh Allen here to go over his rushing problem, 32 and a half rushing yards.

You find this on FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, basically anywhere you bet. So with Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, he's 14 rushing attempts in two games. Also now draws the Chiefs. We've talked about this relentlessly on the show for years now. Quarterbacks in high leverage situations who already scramble tend to do more so in bigger games. So like playoffs or, you know, Josh Allen against the Chiefs.

TJ Hernandez did a study on this showing that's statistically true in the playoffs. And it proves true in the regular season as well. Again, in big games here. Josh Allen has played against the Chiefs five times. He has 88, 68, 59, 42, and 32 rushing yards against them in those games. In the playoffs overall, he's cleared 50 yards in five of his eight games. And if you look at the opposite or the opponent here, the Chiefs have played against basically just two mobile quarterbacks, Justin Fields in week three, who got the 47

rushing yards, despite not having very many designed runs at the time. And the only other mobile quarterback they played against was Jalen Hurts, who did clear 30 yards, but then had multiple kneel downs at the end, and he's been banged up. He's been hobbled. I think this is a great spot here for Josh Allen to go well over his rushing prop and get going. I tailed him in there with you.

I think it's a great look. Where are you at, T-Bro? Any thoughts on the Brady change? I love this bet. I mean, really, I was out there talking about how Ken Dorsey was a fake sharp for weeks man I did not like the way that they were it came to a lot of different things like that entire uh offensive situation the personnel the way they were utilizing guys the fact that they were talking about let's not use Josh Allen's trump card of rushing like that came out early

in the offseason they're like yeah we're gonna we're going to dial it back. It's like, what are you doing? You try to create equations and problems for the defense to solve. Yeah, just take one away. Take one away. It's all good. No problem. He's going to sit back in the pocket. He's not going to run. So I never understood it, man.

So no, I'm totally in with this. I love this. I just went and I bet this just now too. Love it. You hear like the, you know, we get like the Hember talk at this time of year, right? Like that might not be a thing anymore necessarily as turned as it relates to derrick henry per se right but the the overall concept of like wearing a team down wearing them down in a game and then you have the combination of like the bills are in the back against the wall mode right like they are

six and six they need to get this done you can you want to manage Josh Allen's beating early in the season, theoretically I get it. I don't think it is optimal for you to win football games, and I think that's the point Debro was making here. But I also think you don't have that luxury anymore. You need to go out and play all your cards, and that involves Superman being Superman and tucking in running sometimes, and this is a spot for him to

do it for sure regardless of the game state i think it's a fantastic look so um and connor thought i was on it too because he messaged me to make sure i wasn't so that's how we knew we were in the same spot like yeah well that's how i messaged both of you and then noonan was like i ain't sharing nothing with y'all and i was like well you know i mean that's fine we all got choices to make i mean betting patats overs is one of those so you know that's true it's too soon man they won last night uh connor knows i was tilting pretty hard i want i'm sure you were pissed off dude like that's wonderful take us out of the may and caleb sweet sakes yeah right but hey you, Doonan, in that if you watch the first half,

I mean, Al Michaels and Herbstreit caped up hard for Bailey Zappi. Like, I hear he's going to be at a virtual Hall of Famer considering how he played that first half. So there is hope. You do have a franchise quarterback. I mean, no one wants to cheer for a Patriots fan to have any good come in their life no one wants us to have a top two pick so I get it too I just it's the first time I've had like Patriot related

emotions in a couple years and I was saying to Connor like it felt like a playoff loss like that's the like the feeling that I had in the stomach last night where it's like this is we're losing and now we have to we have the Jets in like week 18 and we got to lose that game against the Jets to ensure that we get to where we want to be. Your ambivalence towards the Patriots these days is exactly how I feel about the Saints. Everybody's like, oh, you're

tilting their loss? Because I'm, you know, at my heart, if I got to pick fandom for any team, it's the Saints. But I'm like, nah, we're going to suck for two to three years. Derek Carr is going to stay there because it's down to a contract they can't get rid of. And I'm like, it is what it is. I'll see you all in 2027. I want nothing more for the Patriots to sit in that five to seven range

and take an offensive tackle or some shit and run back to Zappy. Or trade down. And match Payne for 20 more years. I would just love nothing more. And you, our buddy rahul just massive patriots fans just you need a little bit a little bit of dirt trade back and get a d tackle oh that would be it'd be so glorious so good oh my gosh you guys done i can go another five ten minutes i mean i don't know how much air time we got but you know

all good yeah it's painful last night but uh all right i'm gonna give the floor back to you d bro uh first look here for you uh for the week 14 sleep dude what are all these books drunk like justin jefferson's line opens in the 60s Are we just expecting him to play half a snaps? Like, I don't understand where this line is. Like, you can go bet this right now. Like, I'm taking the over everywhere I can. Like, give me all yards. Give me all this freaking smoke.

But you can get the over if you want to stray bet at 65 and a half, minus 120 at BetAMGM right now. But you go to DK, you can bet the all yards. Like, tell me how in the hell in the year 2023, I can get plus money on the over 74.5 receiving yards for Justin Jefferson. How is that possible, guys? Like, so if you can find a spot to ladder this, this is the stairway to heaven this week.

That's what I'll call it. Because the fact that this line opened as low as it is, you have the latter possibilities with it. If it's out there, do it. Do it now. You're going to be plus money, and we're not even talking about Justin Jefferson having to eclipse 100 yards, 90 yards.

Not the mortgage, but damn near close to the mortgage. Like, this is insane to me. But you tell me if I'm wrong, guys. Like I don't understand this at all. Well, five and a half receptions too is very, very appealing. This is typically like seven and a half. We've seen eight and a half from him this season. And so I know that we, you know, the change,

we have him coming off of a hammy and we have a quarterback change for sure. But like, I mean mean this is telling me we should have been betting kirk cousins mvp uh at this rate if like cousins is is this impactful for for jjeff stuff i mean connor any thoughts on jefferson opening up solo yeah no i like the alts if you want to play it specifically because i think that like i totally agree with d bro and i don't think that they they would come back that he would come back if he wasn't like 95%, like 100% healthy, basically. So like at this point, like he's going to be healthy.

He's playing against a Raiders secondary that's trash. Like I think that they're going to, you know, have plenty of success there. So it's just a matter of like, maybe we're missing something. Maybe we don't know something. So I prefer, you're going to bet it about like the 80 plus, 90 plus at like plus money. Because I mean, we haven't projected for like 75

and that's, you can get plus money on that like Derek was saying so I'd almost rather take that than like a 65 66 over 108.5 is plus 500 I'm wow I I don't even know what to say to that and and to add on top of this if anybody pulls up up the season long statistics for the Raiders secondary, they have played a litany of just terrible quarterbacks. All that has been massively puffed up. If you look at the actually good quarterbacks they played, so Jared Goff, Mahomes, and Tua, they have ripped them in half. 8.1 yards per attempt, 104 pass rating, 86% adjusted completion rate. All of this screams to bet all the overs for Justin Jefferson, as well as he came out and said, look, like I had all these grandiose, like, like as far as what I wanted to achieve this season,

I just want to get to a thousand yards. That's still possible guys. Like he needs over the last few games, he needs 429 yards to get to hit a thousand yards for the season. This game is a wonderful jumping off point for that. Look, we forget he almost played in that bears game before the buy. And now we have the buy and now we're here. So like, you know, if you have any real concern, i just don't feel your concerns should be i guess quarterback related and i think that those are pretty thin concerns especially in this matchup right so um yeah same game parlay you know bang that

nate hobbs tackles over uh and bring it back with j jeff you're just you know the the pleasure you're gonna get when j jeff catches the ball and hobbs brings him down, it's a feeling that I can't even explain to you. I can't wait for my children to explain it. Like Christmas morning. Oh, my gosh. And Nate Hobbs is such a dog, such a dog. So, yeah, good stuff there. I like the alts too, Connor.

I think that's a good point. All right. I wasn't going to share my stuff with you guys because I already had your stuff. So then I knew there was no redundancy. That's really what we're concerned with, right? Theoretically is we don't want to be stepping on each other's toes. Now, I thought it was a concern because I want to take in the primer. I'm telling you guys to go out here and read the primer.

The cover boy, the primer this week is none other than the GOAT himself, Michael Pittman. We're going right back to the well. Keep it simple, stupid is what my mom used to tell me all the time growing up. boy the primer this week is none other than the goat himself michael pittman we're just we're going right back to the well keep it simple stupid is what my mom used to tell me all the time growing up and i want to keep it simple we went back here what are we doing at six and a half receptions for michael pittman anymore it is minus 120 on fanatics 122 on fan duel which is more widely available um he has eight or more receptions in five straight. He's averaged about 12 targets per game over that stretch. He has at least eight catches in nine of 12 games a season. We don't even need him to get eight.

Remember, we need seven here. So this price has beat out a little bit in DraftKings and Caesars. Six and a half is a little bit more expensive. But you can play eight plus. Again, he's done it in nine of 12 games. Eight plus on FanDuel is plus 144. It's a great price comparatively. It's plus 108 on Caesars.

I think 125 on ESPN. Cam Taylor-Britt is out for the Bengals. That matters, I think, quite a bit too. DJ Turner has been absolutely cooked all season long. Looking at the PFF coverage grades, he is 105th out of 129 corners in coverage rate this season pitman has like five inches on him um plate wise i mean i don't know what else i don't want to speak to dj turner in a bad way but um he's going to take care of business here this is just pitman is absolutely eating targets love this game up in tempo these

shane steichen games just produce a ton of plays. Love Pittman here. D-Bro, he's your cover boy. Talk to me about Pittman. Dude, Pittman has been eating volume. I mean, just set your clock and forget it. 12 plus 14, 16 targets, like a weekly. I said this on one of the earlier shows, the betting pros and fantasy pros earlier this week, but I mean, he's just basically discount keenan allen the volume that he's seeing on a weekly basis is ridiculous i love how what you brought up here um noonan about the pace of that game because it surprised me so with that game because in the primer i try to cover pace and stuff like that because we want play volume everybody says volumes king play volume is what leads you to the championships and leads you to overs and in this game like looking at it like come on man like

you're telling me that since Jake Browning took over the Bengals have basically treated this like nothing's changed at all they rank fourth in neutral pace 10th in neutral passing rate so that's going to be there and on the other side for the Colts, we're talking about the Pittman overs. Like Gardner Minshew is the starter since week six. They rank first in neutral pace. Like this game is going to be a play volume extravaganza. So yes, like give me the Pittman overs, give me downs overs. Like I'm going to chase a lot of overs in this game

because the play volume is going to be there even if the efficiency is not yeah and we had weather concerns early in the week in this place and it's it's kind of seems to be a little bit less of a concern here it looks like you maybe have a little bit of light rain maybe maybe not but winds don't seem to be much we know that doesn't matter if it's just light stuff like people get so crazy about that stuff and we're just like have have fun. Yeah. I like the, you know,

the lower a dot stuff has been working for Pittman too, in terms of like receptions. And that's why I'm leaning. And I typically do, you know, if you hung out with us for the last few years, I'm typically going to play volume based play. They,

they're more predictable and sticky. So give me the receptions here. I don't think you can catch them and fall down and have 35 yards. I don't care. He's going to catch a crap ton of balls here and get it done for us again. Last week, our chat was all tilted. We didn't have any Michael Pittman. No receptions.

Nothing really happened early. All of a sudden, we get another game with 11 catches and 16 targets. It's inevitable. It's inevitable. It's happening. All right. D-Bro, this is the part of the show where we get a little bit spicy. We want to go a little bit off the of the show where we get a little bit spicy. It was kind of,

you know, want to go a little bit off the board. We want to get a little bit, you know, a little bit fun for people. Same game parlays. We're playing around with some, you know,

poorly correlated parlays where the, you know, the prices go berserk. Connor introduced us into round robin. Uh, all slats be just, again, this is what this is. This is what this section is for.

We get real, real wonky. Connor, the floor is yours. Kick us off with the spice here for week 14. Yeah, we're just going to focus on one game today, but I do think that you can mix in two games. I think this Cowboys-Eagles game is going to get hot. I think it's going to be electric. We have this Cowboys offense here that is passing way over expectation. They are attacking teams downfield. This Eagles secondary has just been rinsed downfield. I mean, like routinely on

the outside, CeeDee Lamb is going to crush. Dak Prescott's passing prop is already at 295, which is outrageously high, but I think you can take it three 25 plus, I think you can go higher. Um, and then you pair that with some Jalen Hurts passing props. Um, you can pair that with AJ Brown against, because we're going to see Dallas, but a lot of man coverage, AJ Brown excels against man coverage. Like there's a couple of different ways you can attack it. Maybe Dallas Goddard props are really low. I know he's just coming back, but I mean, this could be a good, good play as well. So I think mixing in like four or five of, you know, those plus an alternate over, I mean, we'll get a total year, 51 and a half, throw in a 59 and a half plus 60 plus, uh, you know,

I think we're going to see a game in the thirties here, back and forth, lots of touchdowns. So, uh, I love this game. It was like a point to attack here for some saving parlays. And the other one that was like honorable mention was like chiefs bills. That's a little bit of a hot take. I was arguing with Dagle last night. He's on the under I'm on the over there. He hates fun. I mean, not a surprise there.

So, you know, but yeah, that's the other one. I think that you can mix in some props as well. Yeah. I mean, look at 52.

We talked about it in the game preview show, like this state of the NFL season, what we see on the board in terms of totals, a 52, 52 and a half, 53, like that jumps out like a 60 back in the day theoretically like it's just it feels so so bizarre we're hanging out in the upper 30s for the most part so yeah i'm i'm in on all those things and probably have some other stuff uh of a similar vein uh here coming up shortly uh deborah what do you got, buddy? Where are we getting spicy? So I threw in here that I'm just going to bring his name up a little bit later, but I'm throwing a curve ball here.

We're going to take all the damn alts for Gabriel Davis this week. I'm all in on Gabe Davis. I think that he's going to crush. If you look at all the coverage data for Gabe Davis, and I'm looking at DK right now, you can get, you can get the over for 46 and a half at one 35, 55 and a half goes to two Oh five, 74 and a half goes to plus 500. Give me all the damn action. Give me all the smoke. I'm here for it, man. Because the thing about, and I'm not even going to like the, the ghosts of Christmas past.

I'm not talking to you about like, okay, I know everybody's going to listen to this and watch this back and say, he's just going to the Gabe Davis stuff, a playoff history and stuff. No, that's not it at all. If you look at this Kansas city secondary outside of a Jerry of Snead, they've been terrible, man. Like he has been good. He has locked down every number one wide receiver shadows them every single

week. So Stephon Diggs, you want to take unders for him? Have fun. Totally with that. But as far as Gabe Davis, man, we need to be chasing the overs for this. Kansas City, over the last few weeks, have been struggling as a pass defense versus deep passing. Since week nine, 10th highest yards per attempt, third highest pass rating,

seventh highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. What does this mean it's back to Gabe Davis baby and even if you wanted to look at the coverage type so like since week nine Casey is utilized too high at the highest rate in the NFL and what I want to mention about coverage data is people are like well you need to look at the man coverage look at this look at that you're tossing out things that we need to chase and use as actual data points for things that teams run at like 30% of their damn snaps. Is that really something that's going to help you out a lot? Maybe you run pure and it works out fine for you.

But I'm telling you right now, KC, 74.3% of defensive snaps and too high. They're going to live in that the entire game. Gabe Davis, since, and I went back and I looked at this, not just from a, because we have the OC change, we have Khalil Shakir becoming a full-time part of this offense, Dalton Kincaid. So I wanted to drill down to the last five games to look at all of this, this ecosystem of how the Bills offense is right now versus too high. Gabe Davis leads them in deep targets. So, bing, we got that working for us.

Against too high over the last few weeks, 32% area or chair. I talked about these bad cornerbacks. So, outside of a Jarius Sneed, okay, tell me, stop me when I talk about somebody that's actually good at covering wide receivers here, boys. Trent McDuffie's a dude. Huh? Trent McDuffie's a dude.

Trent McDuffie's been a dude who's been cooked over the last few weeks. So, I mean, he's a dude. He's also not going to be anywhere near. No, no, no, no. He's for the next prop that we'll talk about in a second. But with these two outside guys, so basically outside of LeJarius Sneed, the other corners, LeJarius Sneed takes one side of the field or shadows their number one wide receiver.

They've run a tandem of Jalen Watson and Joshua Williams on the other side for KC. These two guys together have allowed seven receiving touchdowns, 66% catch rate allowed by Joshua Williams, 60% for Watson. Both of them are eclipsing 117 pass ratings in their coverage. It's Gabe Davis week boys. Bet those all. Let's go. I like it. Hey, why let's not pretend that the playoff game didn't happen. Why do we have to pretend that it didn't happen? It happens. Look, I'm just telling for the people out here.

We're working with outdated information. In the year 2023, you can still burn the KC secondary. Just not Algeria Sneed. The chat has very mixed opinions right now, Derek. We got Capwise, our buddy Ben, saying, what did I miss in the show? Slop is looking better aka you derek and then we have uh jeff steinberg saying all the plays are overs slop respected not sure about dollar general slop though so you're getting hated on by half the chat and loved by the other half uh dollar general excuse me i mean there are better ways to shop

than that i i i might be I might be Walmart. I mean, come on. I know I was going to say, I might need the, the, the, the bargain bin version of, but still dollar general. Damn. That hurts. Yeah. That's, that's some heat there, Jeff. This is the same guy who's talking about punter props and, you know, field goal props in the chat right now. So, uh, if you're wondering where that came from, that's, uh, that's all Jeff punter props. Damn. Well, I mean, that's not even DJ and level baby. That's, that's a whole different type of sickness, man. Like tackle props, I think are DJ and, but I love it because there's big edges, but punting props. I mean, we need to have a conversation. That's wild. I do bet those are the Super Bowl sometimes, but that's about it.

Yeah, well, you come out with your, what is it, like a, I mean, three-year, 30-page Super Bowl manifesto every year, which is fantastic. Everybody, if you're betting the Super Bowl, you need to be reading what Connor's writing. Have to. Appreciate that. Appreciate that. It's literally

the best betting guide and i'm not i'm not blowing smoke up your ass with this it's the best betting guide for the super bowl that is out there yearly appreciate it appreciate it it's free always free now i have to say something bad about connor because now i talked to him for this show. It's not going to be hard, I promise. Just hit me up on the side if you need something. DMs, Noonan, now. Yeah, Jeff's got field goal props for us, punter props. It's all really good. So, yeah. I mean, it's a McDuffie thing.

Like, look, we just need the guys to give up catches to get tackles. So, like, you know, especially if you're a cornerback. Like, I don't need you to be in coverage. Nothing more frustrating than when your guy gets, you know, especially if you're a cornerback, like I don't need you to be in coverage. Nothing more frustrating than when your guy gets, you know, you bet a tackle over, your cornerback gets targeted, and he makes a play. It's like, just let him catch it and take him down. Like, we don't need you to be out here being Superman.

You know, just let him catch it, take him down softly, gently to the ground. Let's go over and do it all again. So, all right. I got a few things here. I got a few that I want to kind of toss out here and get your guys' thoughts on. I like, there's going to be a nice one, I think, on Monday Night Football.

I think we're going to be able to mess around with Jaden Reed and Jalen Hyatt, both to go 50-plus, which is not a huge threshold. That's 7-1 on DraftKings. Reed's going to benefit from no christian watson the giants past defense has never been good they've been really struggling of late reed's been really kind of fed a little bit more especially against the blitz when watson's out and then hyatt's career high routes uh targets per route run and catches in the last game before the buy so again rookie should get a longer look and this is a guy that can be

you know he could play around with some of the inversely correlated single game or you know parlays too because he could catch one or two balls for 70 yards and those are a lot of fun two there that i like that is interesting debo samuel um you know look debo is going to probably cook the seahawks um but he could cook the Seahawks in like a half, and we can get to a spot where he's really not necessarily involved very heavily in the second half. And he actually did this last week. He can go Debo under four and a half receptions over 100 total yards.

So that's going to combine some of the rushing too. That is 15. Just two legs. He's just got to got him new to making it move baby i'm feeling some things right now man like that that's nice man i catch four balls take one of the house for like 60 yards or whatnot get a couple of carries you know buckle five total yards and four balls and all of a sudden we're 15 and one we're cooking with gas with demos it's probably probably my favorite of the bunch uh i like the confirmation bias here with the reaction of these guys too um and one more i want to do something with this guy and i don't know like part of it is i kind of want to play his longest reception and man we have had some absolutely tilting

half hook losses here on like longest no matter what it's been of late. So I'm part of it is like, I'm a, I'm a little bit scarred here. Corlin Sutton, um, longest reception is over 21 and a half yards, minus one 20. He's done in six straight. Um, and now we get the chargers trash pass defense. Russ, we know is checkdowns and moon balls. Um, and Sutton's averaged up. The target has really spiked over the last couple of weeks. Something like four yards per target over the last six games. He's basically just running goal routes right now. You could do under four and a half receptions, over 70 yards,

and nine to one for Cortland Sutton. So that one's pretty interesting to me. And again, I like the longest reception too, because he just keeps doing it every week. And not just barely. He's pretty interesting to me. And again, I like the longest reception too, because he just keeps doing it every week. And not like just barely, he's like 45, 30. Like he is like comfortably going over this one. So those are kind of some of the looks that I have here. Any thoughts there, Connor? No, we had a question.

What book was the 15 to one? I thought DK, right? For the Deebo Samuel one? Yeah. Nice. Okay. Yeah, I don't think I'll be able to get too much down there, but I like the combined look versus just the receiving look because i think he's going to use a little bit

in the running game as well here again so um yeah i don't know we'll see if we can just leave three four carries the last couple games yeah and if we're going to go off the page you're bringing up the the packers and giants something i was into. I'm going to add to the primer with the assumption that Christian Watson is out. I'm taking the overs and looking at any time touchdown lines for Dontavion Wicks, man. Looking at the Giants, they've been immensely man coverage heavy. And again, I'm poking holes. I'm talking about people talking about man coverage at 20%. I mean, they're running it at almost half of their snaps. So it is actionable, but you look at what the Packers have done. Christian Watson, the ups and downs he's had has not only been like Jordan loves struggling with the deep ball and stuff. It's also been who they're playing. Is it single high versus two highs and man coverage versus zone and where

they're going with all these targets and stuff. But giants, we know are going to run a crap ton of man coverage. Dontavian Wicks, the reason I want to bring him up here is because he is, if you look down, he's got a 29% target per route run rate against man coverage. That is amongst guys that are actually running a lot of routes on the team at second behind only Christian Watson. So he's going to take over that single high man coverage role from Christian Watson, who I think is going to definitely be out this week. He's already said as much. So if you want to add some single game parlays to what Noonan was talking

about, Jane Reed, things like that, it's definitely in play, man. And I don't think a lot of people are going to be betting Wicks lines this week. Love it.

We'll add Xavier McKinney tackles in there too. And we're just absolutely cooking. Yes, man. Love it. Love it. So, all right, that's a splice Man. Love it. Love it. So, all right.

That's a splice section. We'll now like for the people just simmer it down a little bit. You maybe pour ourselves a cup of decaf. We'll get into a little bit more of, you know, the things that everyone can handle here. If you were hanging out with us live in chat, don't forget to jump in there.

Questions, thoughts, plays that you like, anything you want to kick it to us. We'll get to as many and we look like we're trying to have some time here uh connor uh third play for you here for week 14 okay so there's one two things i found a play midstream that i've been waiting on based on some practice reports oh i got a bonus bet so i got a bonus bet so do we want one of

them's an over one of them's an under i'll leave it up to you guys do you want the over first or the under first and i'll i'll once we go back around i'll give you the last one anyway so yeah you break it up because then i because i feel like you know this is the part right coming up where i have to do too much talking we start to do defensive stuff so you can kind of break up the monotony of just hearing from me for 10 minutes for sure so uh so which one do you want which i'll deeper i'll let you decide the over or the under first well i'm not gonna let uh noonan be the undertaker here. Let's hit the over first. All right.

Let's do it. Let's do it. All right. So I'm going to go with Jamal Williams over 21 and a half rushing yards. Taysom Hill did not practice again today. He's almost certainly out. Rashid Shahid, three DNPs. Kendri Miller already announced out.

Derek Carr still in concussion protocol, it seems like. So we're getting Jameis Winston against the Panthers run defense with no other competition. Like, who's going to carry the ball? Just Kamara and Jamal Williams? Andrew Miller ain't going to play. He hasn't been out in weeks. Yeah, he's not.

They just announced him out, like, literally mid-show. So that's why I'm like – I love this. Right. So I'm like, okay, well, I mean, he's going to see, like, seven to ten carries probably. They ran the ball, like, 30 times last last week and they were losing by 20 points, basically the entire game.

I mean, they're going to run the ball, the piss out of the ball. Like this is just going to be crazy. So I know I've, I've gotten burned on some backup running back overs lately, but the process has been right. As long as they don't fall in a hole, like 20 points, even if they do, I think they'll still get there. Honestly. So what's it at right now, Connor?

Um, 21 rushing yards right now. No, no, no. What do you see in still get there honestly so what's it at right now connor um 21 rushing yards right now no no no what are you seeing the juice at like what's it at like minus 110 dk i'm telling you right now that thing is going to get steamed probably like whenever that news gets hit i mean don't y'all see that kind of going to what minus 130 minus 140 when people get yeah i mean i think it's not playing yeah i think it should be higher because i mean taste mill had 13 carries last week. Yeah. Well, the Saints offense is broken, dude. I can tell you I've watched too many freaking snaps of that offense.

Like, they don't have an idea of what they want to do with the ball. Like, they literally got down and just decided we're just going to turtle and run the ball the entire freaking game because they were like, well, nothing else is working. I guess we're going to do that. So, they're probably going to go right back to that this week i love this man that's a really good bet and i was looking for his uh he looked like he was running i mean max is telling us dearon is running quicksand last week jamal looks like he was running in quicksand last week i'm like

at first i saw him running i'm like who is that I'm like oh no touchdowns hit him hard last year you know party in the offseason but again like volume at this point 21 is not a very high threshold and that was a go back this is a way better one you know did you sick pups bet the over on dearness rushing yards like I did in that game yeah yeah I did too now now I will say having watched that game dearness didn't have a freaking chance, man. Like on his carries, they were in the backfield. Like there was one that Mike Hilton like blew him up, but like he barely had just gotten the freaking ball and lost like seven yards. Like he didn't have a freaking chance.

So in your defense, Connor, I was with you on that. It felt like a good bet. I would make it again. I mean, I would make it again. They, they didn't run the ball like at all. Like they were decided not to run the ball. And then Jake Browning decides he's going Like they were decided not to run the ball. And then Jake Browning decides he's going to be like a legit quarterback in the NFL.

Like it was like everything that could have gone wrong. Basically we're wrong, honestly. So happens. That was like my whole week last week. So, you know what? We're here. We're back. I'm still firing on the same shit that we're going to win on this time.

All right, D bro. Connor's rubbing his two, his final his final two dollars together uh for the week oh man what you got for us buddy bring us uh bring us home with uh your your last one here for week 14 it doesn't have to be your last one but your last one here we're gonna start firing rapid fire after this why what what what are we doing with Khalil Shakir's receiving yard um line I don't really understand why it's sitting at 31 and a half um bet this at whatever book is convenient to you because it's minus 110 minus 115 at almost every book I mean that the highest it is is one minus 125 at points bet but I don't understand what we're doing here. And I know we talked about Trent McDuffie earlier.

I'll get to him in a second. But Shakir has hit this line in, oh, let me see, five of his last six games. We're talking about high total game, shootout game script, as well as Kansas City over the last since week eight has given up the third most PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. He's going to get usage. He's also been extremely effective versus too high. I've talked about how much Kansas City runs that, 2.8 yards per route run. He's second on the team in deep targets versus too high, right behind Gabe Davis. So talked about Gabe Davis crushing deep.

Shakir's going to do the same freaking thing, man. I just don't really understand why this line is the way it is. I get the volatility with Shakir, but even his floor over the last few weeks has shown itself to be higher than that. So, I mean, tell me if I'm missing something here, guys, because I don't see it. So, I mean, the worry is Dawson Knox, because Shakir's usage was like ratcheted up. We even know if he's definitely going to play though? Yeah.

So that's the thing is there's two factors where I would think that they're overcompensating for this. Like to your point is that I don't think Dawson, I mean, Dawson Knox is not a sure thing to play. Number one, two, if he does play Joe Brady's office of coordinator. Now the time when we were seeing before, when we were seeing a lot of Dawson Knox with the previous coach, like, I mean, Joe Brady's cooking right now. I mean, 34, 32 points in two games. I mean, like things are

going well. Like, I just don't think that they're going to plug Dawson Knox back in and crush it, but that's your only like risk, like systemic risk, I think in that whole thing. But I think that alter in play, I think that like, if this game gets hot, like it's, you know, it's, he could easily hit 40, 50 plus here. Well, and the other thing about Trent McDuffie, we talked about him earlier since week nine that he started off the season playing out of his mind. He was one of the best nickels in the game, um, over the last few weeks. And I could, I could extend this back further, but since week nine, so over his last four games, 80% catch rate, one 33 pass rating and his coverage to receiving touchdowns so there's so many different ways where like i i could talk myself into the over for that because it even if the volume is

limited we're talking about he's got to get mid 30 receiving yards he can get that on one deep target yeah it's actually probably even i i'm with you and it might be an overreaction it might be a really nice live look uh we start to get a sense of like what's happening out there you might have to take a little bit of a bigger number on shakir which i think is totally within the range of outcomes if he's going to have fairly similar usage than what we've you know what we've seen heading into uh the last couple of weeks so yeah i uh i think i kind of agree that it is probably an overreaction and maybe a little bit more than – maybe a little bit overadjusted comparatively what we could see here.

So I like it. It's just a game that you want to have access to, right? Yeah, I mean, I think that there's so many parts and pieces, and we talked about Josh Allen's back being against the wall. The Bills are absolutely like – I think they're going to crush the Chiefs in this one. I mean, I think it's – Mahomes is only out in this game. Now, like Pacheco's out, Bills run defense is better.

I mean, really, who's he going to in this game? Rasheed Rice, Kelsey, if they don't come away with big games, like Casey's going to get stomped in this game. It's going to be an interesting game. I think it's going to have massive, massive effect to the rest of the AFC playoff picture. I think that Steelers loss was really impactful for the Bills too. Yeah.

Hilarious to think about that, right? How bad the Steelers are and their losses impactful for the Bills who like, I just, I mean, I think are so much better than, you know, the Steelers. It sucks. We need to get the Bills in the playoffs. Can we also say like the Steelers, like I would be surprised that they even got to the playoffs at this point. Like I, I don't see it happening.

They just lost to the Patriots, man. You know how embarrassing that is? I mean, yeesh. I know, man. Patriots wins. Golly. And we keep seeing them for the next few weeks. They always happy.

Unbelievable. Unbelievable. We're a slop. I need a fellow Madden. He's going to go pour a drink right now. It's a tough, tough scene. All right. Last one that I have here.

Uh, regular parlays, offensive parlays, uh, for you, uh, basic bitches who just like the offensive stuff. We'll kick it out here for you.

Um, look, I know this isn't for everyone. This is not everyone's flavor. Not everyone likes, you know, high, uh,

alpha receivers going over give me cd lamb over seven and a half receptions in this game against the eagles connor already kind of touched on it in the same game parlay there's just not a scenario regardless of how you think this game plays out and you can go through all the iterations and walk through game script and all those things i i don't see a scenario where cd lamb is an absolutely peppered with targets you basically need a situation where the eagles like have the ball for 40 of the 60 minutes i think that's the only time that this is in jeopardy that just doesn't seem to be who the eagles are right now um so i just swift i don't think is a is not a threat to miss the game but he's dinged up a

little bit we know that jalen hurts isn't running with the same uh type of pep as he was last year it's just kind of a different eagle squad so cd is going to get a ton of targets teams are passing the second highest rate in the league in neutral scripts against the eagles anyway so teams default that way you saw dallas in the first meeting dropped back on 76 of their snaps that was a one score game it's 10 higher than any other game this season. And we've seen the shift since week seven, their bye week. At that time, the Cowboys were negative 2.1 pass rate over expectation. 20th in the league.

They were leaning run heavy. Since week eight, they lead the league in pass rate over expectation. CD has 14 or more targets and 11 or more receptions in four of those six games. Those are huge numbers. We're not even close to the prop line here. We're talking about 11 or more in four of six. We're getting plus money or basically even odds at this point to get CD to get to eight balls. So the Eagles secondary does not have any answers. I think you could also play, it went back and forth. I think you can also play over 95 and a half combined rushing and receiving. His reception line is like 90 and a half, 92 and a half in some books, but he has at least one rushing attempt in five of the past

six. He ran for twice for 30 yards against Seattle last week. So I think that gives you like another out here because we feel like if he's going to crush here this reception number i'm not super worried about taking on five extra yards of risk uh when i might be able to get like you know about 14 yard 12 yard rush out of it too so um if you want to go 150 yards plus five to one you want to catch 10 balls again on caesars plus 270. absolutely love cd in the spot d bro uh poke a hole in this for me if you can't i can't man i love every i'm i'm look i'm drinking the same kool-aid i love everything you're talking here man like cd lamb has been getting fed i threw it out there a few weeks ago i was like cd is just the new devante adams for mccarthy man like he's getting fed he's playing all over the freaking um all

over the formation and they don't have an answer for him like the eagles do not have a good answer for cd lamb or any of these wide receivers like this entire i haven't really understood what the hell the eagles have been trying to do like this i i feel like all year has gotten too cute it's like you took a system and i'm not the biggest gannon believer but you took a system where super zone coverage heavy because oh my lord like bradbury and slay are really freaking good and now they're running all this man coverage and things and and you put man cover like you put bradbury and slay on islands versus cd lamb he's gonna torch them so you know give me all the overs um i don't i don't know who's main in the comments here but good lord jeff's comment in the chat just had me rolling

dude like that shit got me like it's too true in there i was like somebody gotta toss this up on the screen i'm dying man i'm dying last week jeff pointed out that i looked like the uh lead from sandlots uh the kid with the i forget his name um you know the main character sandlot sal put up some uh graphics for us there last week. He's a good, good shout out. I think I do have some, some young Sam Lott vibes. So you need to put a stake on your face, man. You got the black eye. I mean, you could definitely pull it off for Halloween.

I could pull it off. Yeah. You can think about it a little bit. Nice. Yeah. No, Jeff, you're, you know, you're a rare bird here. You know, you're in the air giving us kicking punts. You know, you're, you're my, of my ilk. You know, you're, this is, we are similar kin. So, you know you're in there giving us kicking uh punts you know you're you're my of my ilk you know you're this is we are similar kin so you know yeah noonan's having a hard time keeping it

together on the show because he can't he can't stop tailing all the punting props that are getting tossed into the chat here i love it i love it uh i do it's my stuff right you go where you know the grass is lightly mowed you find an edge edge over there, and you lay in there, and you make snow angels, and you wait for everyone else to come over and figure it out. So that's what we're doing. Connor, do you want me to do some defensive stuff, or do you want to give the other one?

Whatever you're feeling. Go some defensive stuff here. I mean, it's at under, so I'm going to be throwing a wet blanket on everyone's over party at this point. So, yeah. Okay. it's at under so i'm gonna be throwing a wet blanket on everyone's you know over party at this point so uh yeah yeah we can yeah uh sacks went really well last week um and we're gonna go back with some great sack looks this week that i absolutely love these are really hard i don't make these official plays for subscribers in our discord though on sunday mornings i you know get a little bit more formal and sharing the only reason i don't do that it's just because there's not enough outs for people unfortunately like draft kings

typically has these they have them early um fan duel will get involved a little bit but we just don't have enough outs but there's a few if you have access to draft kings some great looks some of these aren't out yet i'm actually none of the ones that i have before we started the show were out but these are going to be looks that i like here. Khalil Mack, great spot for Khalil Mack. On brand, 44.4% of the sacks versus Denver this year have come off the edge. That is the second highest rate in the league. Russ has been sacked 36 times this year, fourth most in the league. Khalil Mack has been prime Khalil Mack.

You're probably going to have to pay 0.75 for a full sack from Khalil. That's a great spot for him to do it here. That one's going to be a look for me. The rest of these are probably going to be a quarter sack. Basically, you only need these guys to get a half a sack. We might have a full sack for Rashad Gary. Also can go

Preston Smith for the Packers here to get a sack in this game. Tommy DeVito has taken the eighth most sacks in the league this season. He's played in five games. He's taken the eighth most sacks in the league. He has a pressure to sack rate. And again, for context, if you were just not new, kind of new to the staff, we talked about it a lot this year. Upper 20s percent pressure to sack rate is really high. Daniel Jones is the only quarterback, starting quarterback in the league with the pressure to sack rate above 30, 31.5 percent. Tommy DeVito has a 47.5 percent pressure to sack rate. Tommy does not have, like, right,

like he's fun and all these things. He is not standing in there fighting off pressure he is folding like a cheap shirt when he feels that pressure we're gonna get a Rashawn Gary or a Preston Smith uh sack plus money we're gonna get plus money for a quarter sack on Preston Smith he's gonna get a half sack in this game great look absolutely love it Gary you'll pay a little bit more but he's been absolutely killing it this year love that spot for the Packers off the edge and on then the last one, we're going to go with Will Anderson, who is trying to make his way for defensive player of the year. You can also go Jonathan Grenard, who has been outstanding. Actually has kind of worse underlying metrics than Anderson,

but like more than twice the sacks. Grenard has nine sacks in the season. The Jets have allowed the fourth, I'm sorry, at least four sacks in six of the last seven games, the average of five per game. And only Sam Howell and Bryce Young have taken more sacks than young Zach Wilson has this season. I made the reference the other day on the Game by Game preview. Zach Wilson likes sacks like he likes his mom's best friends.

He is going to be taking some this week going down four to five times uh hey look four for four we're not as corporate as uh fantasy pros d bro okay so we can talk that stuff out there uh he he is going down one of jack's mom's friends is right in front of him oh that man went there. Oh, he went there. One of those days. Oh, my God. Those are my sackles. Oh, my God. I'll come back with some tackle thoughts when Connor's done with his under here.

Sweet. I'm going to fire this off. I know we've got to wrap this sucker up. So we're going to go with Jacoby Myers under three and a half receptions here. A couple of factors working in our favor. AOC and the Raiders have seen increased volume against Dolphins and Chiefs, but playing catch up. But I think this was going to be a close one here against the Vikings. Vikings blitz at one of the highest rates in the league. They play zone

a ton, like over 75% of the time. With O'Connell a quarterback, Myers just 12% target share against the blitz. Against zone coverage, just 14% target share on routes run. With AOC under center entirely, his target rate dropped from 26% to 14 and a half percent. So you have all these different factors here in three of five of his starts. Myers is exactly two receptions and the other ones he blew up because again, they're playing catch up. They're throwing the ball a ton here.

So again, in a game where I don't expect that to happen with multiple matchup disadvantages, I think that this is a great spot here and that Devante Adams against the blitz has been like a target hog. Like he's been their first three target shares crazy. Like ever, all the stats there are wild. And I was looking to play the over there, but that's like minus one 50 at five and a half. If I get to six and a half, maybe I'd prefer to play like a seven plus that like alt money there. But Jacoby Myers under three and a half receptions, I think is a pretty good look. I like it. I like it there. I think if people one tackle and then we'll get some questions because I know we got a heart out here. This tackle play is not available yet. I'm usually very hesitant to do this because what happens is we appreciate it. You guys tune in.

And then sometimes there's a chance maybe you get to the tackle prop before I do. And then maybe I have to pay a little bit more of a steeper price because I gave it out here on the show. I do not care what this line opens out at. I am betting Foye Oluokun over tackles in this game against the Browns this week. A Browns offense leads the league in place per game this season, due in large part to how awesome the defense is at home, against whether it's C.J. Beathard or a beat-up Trevor Lawrence. I just don't care. It's really hard to envision a game script where

Cleveland's defense is staying on the fields for long, long drives. 69.7 tackle opportunities per game. That is most in the league, 13% above league average. Linebackers, the most in the league against Cleveland as well. And then an advantageous scorekeeper. They have handed out an assist on 48.2% of the visiting team's tackle opportunities. That is 5% more than the league average. So we're getting three extra boosts on top of the typical baseline projection here for LuaCon. His baseline projection is 10.3. I mean, I had to adjust my projection in some spots because it was so high. I really don't care what it comes in at. I'm taking over on Lua con this week when it comes out probably 10 and a half maybe 11 and a half i don't care

i absolutely smash it this week so uh love that one uh you want more tackles subscribe get in the chat and we are continuing to fire on those so connor you want to jump through some uh things here in the chat before we go yeah so i think uh we got a little time extension here but uh so i'm gonna kick it to d bro first here for uh another alternate over that he had before we get to the chat uh if you want to go for it there dude i i love tower locket this week i love him so freaking much i i don't i think that and i know people are not gonna love tower lock and they're probably not gonna love what i have to say but just hang with me ride with me here for a second,

strapping the seatbelt. Let's go for a nice little joy ride. Because if you look at what Tyler lock, it's done. And again, going back to coverage data and stuff since week 12 and the 49ers losing a Hufanga and like their safeties and stuff like that, they've utilized too high at the seventh highest rate since week eight.

And all of these guys are integrating into the offense against, I know talking about smaller samples, but looking at the ecosystems that these teams are operating in the receiver roles are currently. So since week eight tower locket against too high has a team leading 45% air yard share. So they're going to see that on at least almost 60 percent of their defensive snap or their offensive snaps he has 1.9 yards per route run a team leading 29 first

read share so he's going to get fed man and the thing about that also i want to bring up here is that do you do you see tower lockett on the injury report oh that's right first week off of it for the basically the entire freaking season he's not on the injury report we Oh, that's right. First week off of it for the, basically the entire freaking season. He's not on the injury report. We've seen DK dancing around big games. He just had his blow up game. Jason just had his pseudo breakout game. Tower lock. It's going to have himself a freaking week guys. And I'm looking at his alt lines and I'm just, I'm staring at them and loving life like over 58 and a half plus one 35, a half plus 210 you want to go for 88 and a half which healthy tower locket plus 500 shit sign me up ma'am i like that i like that a little bit it's a little spicy i like the uh like the alts there connor any thoughts off the top with uh

with locket no i'm interested in it i've been been debating on some Geno attempts as well, depending on how this injury report shakes up, with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker both potentially out. Even if they play, they'll throw. Yeah, even if they play, they're probably going to have to throw a ton, and they're not going to be 100%. I can't imagine a world where they're going super run-heavy with those guys at this point.

So I think there's going to be a ton of volume. Lockett's probably going to benefit. So, yeah, i like it i like it i like it let's get through the chat um let's do it good ones in here yeah we got uh sam wagman d bro uh you know calling you out there love sam i love swag always got to give props to swags 100 and then you know what we got a little little segment here. Jeff's kicker and punter props. So we got Cairo Santos over one and a half field goals. We got Dustin Hopkins over one and a half field goals, plus 120.

Texans Jets over nine and a half total punts. Actually like that a lot because it's going to be rainy. They should have set that line higher. Yeah. No, that might be a first half line, honestly. So, you know, um, we got some interesting,

uh, Sean McDermott, uh, jokes in the chat. We know that the bills will have great communication this week. Uh, not good. Too high.

It's how McDermott starts his pump up speeches. His team. Jesus. It's getting wild out here. Um, uh, yeah, so this is,

it got going. Tyler, Norlin's going to feed Kamara a disgusting amount, huh? Yeah, I think that Kamara's going to see probably 15 carries and Jamal's probably going to see 7 to 10. So I think all those are in play here. Tyler, again, read everything Connor writes. I think I just started this one because I'm in charge of the chat. So, you know, shout out to Tyler.

Appreciate you there. Too many nice things about connor on one freaking show yeah it looks like five and a half carries is uh williams line dude and uh if you're more inclined to take that i think that's a good one too for jamal um what do you i'm interested derrick what do you think of the ceh mckinnon split here um ceh should be ahead but like i don't really think they're gonna run him a ton right like they're probably just gonna pass like a bunch i think they're gonna pass a ton man like right now um i'll see if i could pull it up real fast but um the the best way i think probably to bet that

and i don't even know if it's opened yet with the news and stuff but if we get unless y'all are seeing it already like what's m McKinnon's receiving yards line? Because that is probably the way that I want to play this because I just don't see, like one, the Bills run defense has been better over the last few weeks. They were Swiss cheese to begin the year. I don't see a McKinnon line out there if y'all do. Yeah, 17 and a half I'm seeing receiving yards.

Give me the over. Give me the over because we know that ceh is not going to garner a lot of the snap share like say like okay he takes over the early down roll what's he going to play like you're hoping 50 of the snaps like mckinnon could be the guy and if andy reed like you don't really have to twist his arm uh that much to want to throw the ball even more i think it's the the mckinnon receiving yardage line that I want to go over on. Connor's play on Mahomes' attempts early in the week is a nice look, too.

What did the note come at? 34.5. Really low. He's going to have like 40. It's going to get goosed up now. It will. That was the whole thing. It was like two back-to-back DNPs for Pacheco. I'm like,

and the bills run defense was good. Like you mentioned, they've been playing really well. Their pass even has been playing not so well. So yeah, I think that's, I would still play at a 35 and a half or what it's worth. If that's still out there for some reason.

We talked about Jeff who's calling Newton basic. It's funny. We got. Newton is Michael Gallup washed up or what any thoughts there i think yes all right he's a jag he has been a jag for most of his career the thing that people don't want to understand or come to grips with is he's been this dude outside of like one good season you look at every metric for michael gallup it's not just the injuries. He's always been that guy. Yeah. What did he,

what did he, did he tear his ACL or something like, what was like two years ago? Maybe it was, it was, yeah, it came back, came back from the ACL last year.

But if you look at his ancillary metrics, like he's a guy that's lived in that, like that wide receiver three, like 1.2 to 1.4 yards per route run where you're like, like, like, so him losing snaps to Tolbert doesn't surprise me at all this year. Yeah, no,

that's a, yeah, no, not at all. I mean, I just don't think he's very good. That was the weirdest contract I've ever like, why did they give him a contract for that?

I don't know. It's just Dallas doing Dallas things. Why'd they give Zeke a massive contract? Who knows? Jerry does Jerry things. They take away the checkbook from Jerry these days. They're like, nope, nope, nope. I got to throw this one up there.

Jeff Semberg, y'all should run a Josh Giddy parlay. All running backs rush for under 18 yards. That is just tough. That is tough, Jeff. That's really good, Jeff. That jeff that's that's that's good content it's good stuff oh man uh kate otten uh bounced back in a good match against the falcons overs and all slow key yeah and i think so line is only 23 and a half he had like four or five catches last time falcons allowing the most uh targets to opposing tight ends in the league.

I do worry that it'll be a Chris Godwin day because they've been talking them up like nonstop and like, you know, his wife's bitching on Instagram and shit now. And like, you know, once you get the wives involved, I feel like it's like, you know,

it's kind of over, you know, that game is a low key shootout to like the, just the defensive injuries in that entire game. Like the bucks are banged up. Atlanta might be without their two top starting starting corners like aj trill might not play akuta's got an uh an ankle injury like i kind of like that game uh to shoot out honestly yeah uh clark played the over for us this week on

that too and yeah first time they met he had like three fumbles inside the five like that game is i don't think indicative of what we should expect here so yeah like that call yeah uh jeff did not like the touchdown tommy uh slander there um ben he's a spicy meatball who's coming with tommy touchdown is that even like an improved nickname like i've heard tommy i've heard tommy cutlets like i feel like we're just we're kind of kind of making some things up here now, Jeff. Getting it too deep into the sauce. Ben says Denver is looking to air it out. I like this.

I was assuming he was talking about your Corlin Sutton longest props there. Ben is also a Denver guy. And I think we've been trying to get into Marvin Mims stuff for the entire season and it doesn't seem to work out, unfortunately. I know Marvin Mims just seems like a pipe dream at this point. I'll give you something, Ben. Give me the overs for Javante Williams. I think this game could get flipped.

The Chargers are just, they're a shit show right now, man. Let's just call it for what it is. And if Denver's playing in positive game script i think this could be uh like giovante i'm gonna look up and see what his anytime touchdown is after this because he's got zero rushing touchdowns it's gonna regress guys i think it comes this week we got like i think 15 and a half is the carry number i looked at that a little bit too um i already hit the over for the carries yep okay i thought about doing a uh messing around with a over carries under yards on him because there's been no explosives at all

it's not happening so he might get fed volume you might be able to parlay it up into hit the over carries under rushing yards and get the any time in there I mean it's let's live life come on let's live I like it I like it absolutely in his bag on this

Sean McDermott stuff here oh my god just keeps going at bills doing by 9 11 jesus this is i i can't even touch that this is getting worse and worse oh man buzzer beater thoughts on kieran williams attempts it's like 15 and a half over uh yeah i think over i mean as long as the game stays remotely close like i mean they're just gonna run the piss out of the ball. That game is going to be so sloppy, so wet. Like, I think Kieran's probably going to see more than that. The only reason I haven't played it is because, like,

I worry that the Ravens are just going to just suck the life out of the clock and just, like, you know, murder it. So I worry about volume props in that sense. But definitely normal game script, I lean over for a guy like Kieran. DeVito's mom is going to come after you, ryan she's a mean italian uh and then dallas goddard noon and any dallas goddard takes off the injury report officially um maybe an sgp leg there i don't know thoughts they're pretty low um any thoughts on because this is the way i think your brain probably goes to is like oh hey how can i pivot on devonta smith unders um but i don't think this is where I think your brain Probably goes to is like oh hey how can I Pivot on Devonta Smith

Unders but I don't think this is a game You necessarily want to because Devonta Smith we've seen a pretty Clear spike in his work with Goddard on and off the fields I'm Starting you know you're like you know Just it's meshing over We want to bring up any other lines That don't make freaking sense tell me how in the

Hell Chuba Hubbard gets 25 carries and Chuba Hubbard's line opens at 13 and a half this week um i put two units on it just now like i was like minus 120 uh i like free money y'all like free money come on yeah he's been 13 and a half like he's still splitting work and he's had that that line is makes no sense to me can y'all make some sense out of that because i i saw it and i was like oh my lord what have you done it's it's interesting because it's 14 and a half on fan duel but 12 and a half or 13 and a half on dk or caesars depending on where you look and i'm seeing i mean we haven't projected for i guess our blended projections haven't been like 15 carries which makes a ton of sense i mean it's just going to be a boring game with a lot of We look and I'm seeing, I mean, we haven't projected for, I guess our blended projections haven't been like 15 carries,

which makes a ton of sense. I mean, it's just going to be a boring game with a lot of running and like, you know, Saints run defenses has just, they've, they've taken a vacation. They're like, nah, we got better things to do. It's all good. Yeah. 74% of the temps last week for Chuba,

which is a nice little spike after being been around high forties a couple of weeks prior with mile Sanders getting involved a little bit more, but no 74, 24 split last week. So yeah, definitely, definitely a nice look for sure. It's just one of those lines. Like as soon as I saw it, when I started going through stuff on betting pros, I was like, all right, putting in my bets and stuff. I'm like, hi, like I get it if you're just using projections from the last like four to five weeks. But I mean, like there's too many spots where he's had the starters run 19, 15, 16. Even like you want to throw out the 25 and say it's the outlier.

But OK, the week before that 14, like his game logs are littered with overs. A hundred percent. His game logs are littered with overs. 100%. Jeff in the chat. It's just... Yeah, I think we got to stop putting these up here. We're going to get canceled. Oh, Dalton Schultz ruled out just now. That is interesting.

Yeah. I'm curious where they're going to open Brevin Jordan's lines because I think Brevin Jordan could see a heavy work day with Stroud staying away from the outside corners for the jet. So I'll be chasing the overs for him. Definitely. I've been waiting for them to open lines and can we, can y'all stop being cowards books?

Like, please, please open me up. Give me some Elijah Moore lines to bet. I need it in my life. That 21 and a half a dot last week is screaming at me, baby. Come on. Yeah.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Some serious prayer yards, though, in that one. Like some very uncatchable. Oh, I know. I'm just chasing ADOT there. We can pray. We can pray about a lot of things.

But the ADOT was real. No, we touched on it last week. They've touched tips probably at some point, and there's something to be said for the chemistry there. You don't want to – Oh, my God. I just touched one of my nose. You want to account for that.

Most projection systems aren't accounting for that. I don't know how you – No, there's no shower narratives unless they got the footage. What you know is, man, I mean, you know, things get wild. TMZ notwithstanding. Oh my god. Dying.

Alright. That was so good. Have we officially gone off the rails yet? Yeah, no, we're good. We're way off the rails. I think time's up. We talked about sword matches. We've talked about terrible McDermott jokes. I mean, it's,

it's been a wild one boys. Feel responsible. That's okay. It's good stuff. I feel responsible, but it makes me feel alive. Okay. We are again,

appreciative of your time. I know you're a busy guy and you got a lot, you know, dad responsibilities, writing responsibilities, a million shows a week, all that stuff. We appreciate it. Let everyone know, again, where they can find you, find your content, and make sure they catch what you're doing on a weekly basis. Oh, man, much love, guys. Again, do the best in the game.

When Connor reaches out and asks me to come on a show, it's not a yes or no. It's usually, okay, what time? So no way in hell I was going to miss this. So yeah, man, like much love and shout out to y'all. I love everything y'all are doing over four for four with everybody, TJ and the entire crew,

man. But yeah, as far as all my, my stuff, primers out every Thursday. You check me out on any of the, the fantasy pro shows throughout the week. I do some betting pro stuff too as well.

Primer gets updated on Friday. And if anything else comes out on Saturday, I mean, literally, it's a living, breathing organism. So as soon as updates come out on injuries and things like that, I get in here and sit down and start typing up stuff and make sure people have updated info. So check it out over at pros.com and yeah, man, much love. Big shout out to you guys. You know,

I love you guys. Yeah. Appreciate that. I feel like you said that thing. That's an important piece to of content. A lot of content is submitted in dead. You know, the primary is something you can go back and get updated information to as

the week evolves. Injury reports are a big thing here on Friday. We get some of that information on Saturdays and stuff to go back and uh circle back and check out the primer good stuff as always uh we appreciate it we should have slot back next week uh but again you know the ball was raised d bro you know so we're gonna make sure slot continues to keep it going here this week so we appreciate everyone hanging out with us don't forget to hit us with a thumbs up subscribe to the channel before you take off. Come back. We'll do it all again next week. Wednesdays, again, game previews.

Friday for props. So for D-Bro and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. you